Key Economic Sectors .1 Agriculture

Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector provides a livelihood to over 70% of the population, and currently contributes about 17% of export earnings (Ministry of Economic Planning and Investment Promotion, 2012). From 1980 to 1998, agriculture contributed more than 60% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings, and 15–19% of GDP. Between 1998 and 2008, the sector contracted rapidly due to rainfall variability (e.g. the drought from 2000 to 2002), foreign exchange shortages, and the political crisis associated with the Fast Track Land Reform Programme, which adversely affected agricultural production in the commercial farming sector (AfDB/OECD 2003: 356).

Despite the significant decline in the agricultural sector in the past decade, agriculture continues to play an important role in Zimbabwe’s development. It provided employment for the majority of the population during the current economic recovery. The allocation of land to a significant number of small- and medium-scale farmers under the land resettlement programme, coupled with the envisaged irrigation development programme aimed at creating 240,000 ha of irrigated land by 2015, suggests substantial future growth – especially if agricultural prices remain favourable.

Furthermore, the agricultural sector has strong links with the manufacturing sector.

3.2.2 Mining

The mining sector accounts for around 4% of GDP, 5% of formal sector employment, and at least 50% of foreign exchange earnings (Ministry of Economic Planning and Investment Promotion, 2012). Major products include gold, platinum, nickel, diamonds, ferro-alloys and coal, the majority of which are exported as semi-processed products. The anticipated growth in the mining sector has important implications for climate change; mining contributes to climate change due greenhouse gas emissions from the sector (it is dependent on thermal power), while climate change can affect mining operations. For example, extreme weather events may disrupt power supplies, and changes in water availability may threaten water-reliant production and processing techniques.

3.2.3 Manufacturing

Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector, both formal and informal, is highly diversified and absorbs much of the agricultural and mining output. The main sub-sectors are agro-processing, beverages, metal products, chemicals and petroleum products, and textiles. Manufactured exports, including semi-processed minerals such as ferrochrome and agricultural products such as cotton, were estimated to account for 33% of merchandise exports in the 1990s.

Manufacturing contributes a significant share of Zimbabwe’s GDP, export earnings and employment. Its share of GDP averaged 25% in the 1980s but fell to less than 14% in the 1990s, partly due to deindustrialisation associated with structural adjustment programmes, and also an influx of cheap imported goods. The decline continued into the 2000s and its contribution fell from about 19% of GDP in 2001 to an estimated 15% by 2006.

From 2009 onwards, the manufacturing sector started to grow due to improved capacity utilisation, partly as a result of the introduction of US dollars. This resolved the acute foreign currency shortages and inflation of the Zimbabwean dollar. The manufacturing sector is estimated to have

grown by 5.7% in 2011, due to improved credit support and a more reliable energy supply.² As current capacity utilisation is only around 50%, it is likely the sector will grow rapidly in coming years through the measures Government has proposed through the Medium Term Plan and the Industrial Development Policy.

As manufacturing grows, it is important that any potential climate change and development policy examines the sector’s demands for energy and water, and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as impacts of changing climatic conditions on industry. Such policy should balance embarking on a low-carbon trajectory for the sector with its contribution to national economic growth and poverty reduction. In other words, the challenge for the Zimbabwean Government is to ensure that the sector is assessed for greenhouse gas emissions and energy efficiency. Further, the Government should ensure a regulatory framework is put in place to enforce policy and allows the sector to be efficient and competitive at the regional and global level.

3.2.4 Energy

Energy in Zimbabwe is drawn from different sources. Wood used by households account for 47%, coal and coke 21%, motor fuels 20% and electricity 12% (AfDB, 2011). The residential sector consumes 47%, followed by industry (19%), transport (15%), agriculture (11%), commerce (4%), mining (3%) and others (1%). There is a paucity of data on future energy consumption by sector, but it is fair to say that as the population increases and key economic sectors continue to recover and grow, energy demand will also increase. Also, the success of the Rural Electrification Programme has led to increased consumption of electricity in rural areas (see Box 1).

Box 1. Rural Electrification Programme

The Rural Electrification Programme was launched in 2001 with the aim of providing electricity to 10,000 rural public institutions such as schools, rural health centres, extension offices and farming communities. The programme promoted the economic use of electricity in rural areas by developing energy-intensive irrigation schemes, and cottage and agro-industries. By October 2010, the Rural Electrification Agency, which ran the programme, provided electricity to 608 rural centres across Zimbabwe, including 39% of rural primary schools, 70% of rural secondary schools, and 65% of rural health centres. In addition, 222 mini-grid solar systems had been installed at remote schools and clinics.

Source: AfDB, 2011:14

2 http://dailynews.co.zw/index.php/business/35-business/2315-zim-manufacturing-sector-to-grow-6.html

Zimbabwe’s energy sector is dominated by coal, hydropower, petroleum, biomass, ethanol and liquid gas. The country relies mainly on coal, and this is set to continue, with proven reserves of half a billion tonnes and possible reserves of up to 30 billion tonnes (Government of Zimbabwe, 2008). Both technology transfer within coal-fired power stations, and hydroelectric and renewable energy sources, offer potential for generating offset credits for Zimbabwe through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other international carbon markets.

For hydroelectric power, the country depends on the Kariba Hydropower Station, but the country has significant potential for hydropower generation along the Zambezi River and in the Eastern Highlands. According to Mungwena (2002), eight further dams have the potential to generate hydropower in Zimbabwe. Small hydroplants can also be installed on smaller dams, provided there is sufficient flow.

Biomass is a major energy source, especially for rural and low-income urban populations. Of the country’s total land area of 39 million ha, 20.5 million ha are under indigenous forest while 140,000 ha are under commercial forest plantations. For energy purposes, only the indigenous forests in communal areas can be considered as major resource. Loss of natural forest continues, especially near urban centres and some rural districts. Both afforestation and reduced deforestation hold potential for carbon offset schemes (the former through both the CDM and voluntary markets, and the latter through voluntary markets).

Zimbabwe has had significant experience with renewable energy for household use. Solar water heaters, solar photovoltaic power for lighting, efficient wood stoves, and solar cookers have all had government, NGO and private sector support since the early 1980s. However, the market has not grown to contribute significantly to the national energy balance. The solar photovoltaic market continues to be small, as most people can only buy small panels to power radios and some lights.

Large systems are still rare.

Biofuels have a long history in Zimbabwe. Ethanol production from sugarcane was conducted at Triangle Limited producing 20% of motor fuel requirements. However, production ceased in 1992 as unblended petrol became cheaper than blended fuel. Due to high oil prices and fuel shortages, ethanol production resumed in 2008. More significantly, a new ethanol plant has been constructed at Chisumbanje by Government in partnership with Green Fuel. Sugarcane ethanol production has important implications for climate change and development policy. It has some potential to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (dependent on the input intensity of feedstock production, and

land-use changes). If sugarcane production involves small-scale farmers, including A1³ and A2⁴ farmers, and focuses partly on local consumption of energy and other related products, then there could be considerable poverty co-benefits. These objectives need to be integrated into national policy frameworks on climate change and development.

3.2.5 Services

The services sector played a vital economic role during the 1990s, contributing more than 58% of GDP in 1998. This was mostly a result of increased spending on education and health, and an expansion of tourism. However, the contribution of services to GDP has fallen rapidly since 2002.

For example, the value added from social services dropped from 10.8% of GDP in 2001 to an estimated 7% in 2006. The tourism sector, which was the fastest growing sector during the 1990s, has experienced a profound decline since 2000 due to the deepening economic crisis, limited air traffic and the unstable political climate. Visitor arrivals in the first half of 2002 were just 739,000 compared with 1.45 million during the same period of 2001 (AfDB/OECD, 2004). However, tourist arrivals have increased since 2003. Total tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2003, at just over 1 million, were 47% higher than in the first quarter of 2002 (ibid).

Although the services sector is not a heavy greenhouse gas emitter, the sector can contribute to climate mitigation through changes in energy use, building equipment, appliances, and fuel use for transportation. Further, climate change can adversely affect service industries and enterprises.

Extreme weather-related events may cause damage to property and energy infrastructure, and lead to the loss of revenue and higher insurance premiums. Adverse climate change impacts on water resources and biodiversity may particularly affect tourism.

3.3 Social and economic conditions