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Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology

Master Thesis

Using sex pheromone and a multi-scale

approach to predict the distribution of a rare

saproxylic beetle

Najihah Musa

LiTH-IFM-A-EX-12/2630-SE

Supervisors: Per Milberg & Karl-Olof Bergman, Linköping University

Examiner: Karin Tonderski, Linköping University

Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology Linköpings universitet

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Rapporttyp Report category Examensarbete D-uppsats Språk/Language Engelska/English Titel/Title:

Using sex pheromone and a multi-scale approach to predict the distribution of a rare saproxylic beetle

Författare/Author:

Najihah Musa

Sammanfattning/Abstract:

The European red click beetle, Elater ferrugineus L., is associated with wood mould in old hollow deciduous tree. As a result of severe habitat fragmentation caused by human disturbance, it is threatened throughout its distribution range. A new odour-based trapping method, which is very efficient in attracting males, was used in the present study to relate the occurrence of E. ferrugineus to the density of deciduous trees using a recently completed regional survey recording >120, 000 deciduous trees. Results showed that the occurrence of E. ferrugineus increased with increasing amount of large hollow and large non-hollow trees in the surrounding landscape. Quercus robur was found as an important substrate for E. ferrugineus and two groups of tree species (Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica, Ulmus glabra, vs. Acer platanoides, Aesculus hippocastanum, Fraxinus excelsior and Tilia cordata) could be a complement to the existence of Quercus in sustaining the beetle’s population. E. ferrugineus responded to the density of Quercus at two different spatial scales, 327 m and 4658 m, suggesting that a multi-scale approach is important for studying the species. In conclusion, for conservation management, priority should be given to Quercus, and also to all deciduous trees in the genera listed above, regardless of the tree quality. The response showed by E. ferrugineus on the amount of substrate at two different scales indicates that using multi-scale approach in studying this particular species is the better option as single-scale approach may result in poor decision support.

ISBN

LITH-IFM-A-EX—12/2630—SE

__________________________________________________ ISRN

__________________________________________________

Serietitel och serienummer ISSN

Title of series, numbering

Handledare/Supervisor: Per Milberg & Karl-Olof Bergman Ort/Location: Linköping

Nyckelord/Keyword:

Conservation, Elater ferrugineus, habitat fragmentation, hollow deciduous trees, multi-scale approach, predicted distribution, sex pheromone

Datum/Date

2012-06-01

URL för elektronisk version

http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:div a-79159

Institutionen för fysik, kemi och biologi

Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology

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Contents

1 Abstract ... 1

2 Introduction ... 1

3 Material & methods ... 3

3.1 Study species ... 3

3.2 Study area ... 3

3.3 Beetle sampling ... 5

3.4 Sampling strategy ... 6

3.5 Calculation of tree densities ... 7

3.6 Data analyses ... 9

4 Results ... 11

4.1 Selecting important tree qualities ... 11

4.2 Tree groups important for Elater ferrugineus ... 12

4.3 The characteristic scale of response ... 12

4.4 Prediction on occurrences of Elater ferrugineus ... 14

5 Discussions... 17

6 Acknowledgements ... 19

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1 Abstract

The European red click beetle, Elater ferrugineus L., is associated with wood mould in old hollow deciduous tree. As a result of severe habitat fragmentation caused by human disturbance, it is threatened throughout its distribution range. A new odour-based trapping method, which is very efficient in attracting males, was used in the present study to relate the occurrence of E. ferrugineus to the density of deciduous trees using a recently completed regional survey recording >120, 000 deciduous trees. Results showed that the occurrence of E. ferrugineus increased with increasing amount of large hollow and large non-hollow trees in the surrounding landscape. Quercus robur was found as an important substrate for E. ferrugineus and two groups of tree species (Carpinus

betulus, Fagus sylvatica, Ulmus glabra, vs. Acer platanoides, Aesculus hippocastanum, Fraxinus excelsior and Tilia cordata) could be a

complement to the existence of Quercus in sustaining the beetle’s population. E. ferrugineus responded to the density of Quercus at two different spatial scales, 327 m and 4658 m, suggesting that a multi-scale approach is important for studying the species. In conclusion, for

conservation management, priority should be given to Quercus, and also to all deciduous trees in the genera listed above, regardless of the tree quality. The response showed by E. ferrugineus on the amount of

substrate at two different scales indicates that using multi-scale approach in studying this particular species is the better option as single-scale approach may result in poor decision support.

Keywords: Conservation, Elater ferrugineus, habitat fragmentation, hollow deciduous trees, multi-scale approach, predicted distribution, sex pheromone

2 Introduction

Temperate ecosystems in Europe have been heavily altered by human disturbances to the extent that natural ecosystems are now absent or fragmented over large areas (Hannah et al. 1995). Fragmentation of landscapes causes isolation of habitats and populations, which in turn results in decreased biodiversity. In the absence of habitats patches large enough to meet the needs of a species that is restricted to a particular type of habitat or the lack of systems of habitat patches in relatively close proximity, the species may go regionally extinct (Hanski & Gilpin 1991). Woodland pastures with old hollow deciduous trees are among the

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habitats most seriously affected by fragmentation in recent centuries (Hannah et al. 1995). Many insects associated with this type of habitat are therefore threatened (Svensson & Larsson 2008).

Elater ferrugineus L. (Coleoptera: Elateridae) or the red click beetle is

one of the species that are associated with wood mould of old hollow deciduous trees, and is thus negatively affected by the massive loss of hollow deciduous trees caused by forestry and changing agricultural practices (Tolasch et al. 2007). This beetle is classified as vulnerable in the Swedish Red List (Gärdenfors 2010). It has the potential as an indicator species for the unique habitat, hollow deciduous trees (Andersson et al. in prep.).

The common methods used to capture Elater ferrugineus in the field are direct sampling of wood mould, pitfall traps placed inside the hollow trees and suspending window traps placed outside the hollow trees (Svensson et al. 2004, Tolasch et al. 2007). However, these methods require huge trapping efforts to properly identify the presence of a species at a site. Several studies show that an odour-based, non-destructive

trapping method is very effective to capture E. ferrugineus (Svensson et al. 2004, Svensson & Larsson 2008, Tolasch et al. 2007, Larsson & Svensson 2009). For example, Tolasch et al. (2007) captured 57 individuals in a trap baited with pheromone while only one individual was caught in an un-baited control trap. This indicates the success of odour-based trapping method, and that E. ferrugineus can now be sampled with high accuracy and hence much more can be learnt of its distribution and habitat requirements.

In this study, the relationship between the occurrence of E. ferrugineus and the amount and quality of its habitat was examined using pheromone trapping instead of traditional trapping methods. The amount of habitat was measured at multiple spatial scales to find the scale at which the relationship is strongest (Paltto et al. 2010, Bergman et al. 2012). By using this approach, it is possible to draw conclusion about the spatial scale at which conservation strategies may be most efficient

(Lindenmayer 2000).

The pheromone used was a sex pheromone and the amount of habitat was measured as the density of old deciduous trees within circles of different radii. Six groups of tree species, with and without hollows, were tested separately to find out which tree groups best explain the occurrence of E.

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eremita have been surveyed only at potential hotspots in the landscape,

thereby potentially biasing conclusions. In contrast, in this study, the traps were placed systematically in the landscape. I aimed to give explicit recommendations about host tree species, the importance of hollows in the host trees and important spatial scales for practical conservation of this vulnerable saproxylic beetle, E. ferrugineus. I also aimed to identify areas that are suitable for re-introduction of the beetle into the landscape by using prediction maps.

3 Material & methods 3.1 Study species

Elater ferrugineus is a rare and threatened click beetle with a body size of

17-24 mm (Gärdenfors 2010). This species has a life cycle of four to six years depending on the abundance of prey in the breeding substrate (Tolasch et al. 2007). Its larvae live in the hollows as a predator and prey on the larvae of other saproxylic beetles such as Osmoderma eremita larvae (Tolasch et al. 2007). The adults are usually active from late June to mid-August (Svensson et al. 2011), live for 2-7 weeks and do not overwinter (Larsson & Svensson 2009). Its main habitat is old hollow deciduous trees. In Sweden oaks (Quercus robur) are considered the main habitat (Palm 1959, Gärdenfors 2010) but it can also be found in other tree species such as elm (Ulmus glabra), lime (Tilia cordata), beech (Fagus sylvatica), alder (Alnus glutinosa), maple (Acer platanoides), ash (Fraxinus excelsior), and horse-chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) (Allen 1966 in Meržijevskis & Tamutis, 2010, Gärdenfors 2010).The distribution of E. ferrugineus ranges from Spain to the Caucasus, and from Italy in the south to Sweden in the north (Horion 1953 in Tolasch et al. 2007).

3.2 Study area

The study area was located in the county of Östergötland, in the south-east of Sweden (Figure 1a). The landscape of the study area and its surroundings are dominated by arable land and coniferous forests. It also consists of patchily distributed deciduous forest stands with veteran, large and/or hollow oak trees.

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Figure 1. (a) Trap locations in a grid within the county of Östergötland. Dots (•)

represent traps that caught E. ferrugineus and crosses (×) represent traps that did not catch E. ferrugineus. Distributions of deciduous trees are marked in grey. Thin lines delimit municipalities. (b) Trap locations of the two

validation data sets. Closed circles (•) represent the strategic data set, sampled within the present study area and open circles (○) represent

Östergötland data set which were put up in the ‘hotspot’ areas. Distributions of deciduous trees are marked in grey.

Linköping

b a

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3.3 Beetle sampling

The beetles were collected using a non-destructive odour-based trapping method, allowing the specimen to be individually marked and released alive after every catch. Trapping was conducted from July 1st to August 25th 2011, which was from the beginning to the end of flight period of the beetle.

Two types of pheromones were used in this study to maximize the number of catches, 7-methyloctyl (Z)-4-decenoate and

(R)-(+)-γ-decalactone. A pheromone blend of four esters that is similar to the one that has been extracted by the females of E. ferrugineus was developed in a study by Tolasch et al. (2007). However, a study conducted by

Svensson et al. (2011) found that only one of the esters (7-methyloctyl (Z)-4-decenoate; a compound which resembles the pheromone produced by the females of E. ferrugineus); appears to be efficiently attractive to E.

ferrugineus males. As the use of conspecific sex pheromone attracted

only the males of E. ferrugineus, the sex pheromone emitted by their larval prey, O. eremita, (R)-(+)-γ-decalactone, was also used in this study to attract the females of E. ferrugineus. It has been shown that both E.

ferrugineus males and females are attracted to the pheromone emitted by

the males of its prey O. eremita, to facilitate prey location or as a habitat signal (Svensson et al. 2004, Svensson & Larsson 2008, Larsson & Svensson 2009, Larsson & Svensson 2011).

A polypropylene polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tube containing 7-methyloctyl (Z)-4-decenoate and a 2 mL glass vial containing (R)-(+)-γ-decalactone were attached together using metal wire. An insect pin size 3 was used to pierce a hole at each PCR tubes and cotton dental rolls were inserted in the glass vials to allow compound release and to ensure a high stable release rate throughout the whole trapping activity (Larsson et al. 2003). Then, the PCR tube and glass vial was attached to a custom-built funnel trap (Svensson & Larsson 2008). The funnel trap was suspended by ropes from tree branches at 2-4 metres height on the most shaded side of the tree to prevent captured beetles from dying due to excessive heat. Every trap was checked for the presence of the beetles every third day. Captured specimens in the trap were counted and marked with unique numbers on the elytra using a fine point permanent marker pen (Uni Paint Marker PX-21) before they were released. The beetles were marked in order to find out the number of unique individuals per trap, which were later used in the predicted distribution maps to portray the abundance of the beetle in each trap location. After an initial time period, traps without

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catches were visited more seldom (every sixth day). An occurrence per trap is defined as capture of at least one individual in that trap during the whole sampling period. The abundance per trap is defined as the total number of individuals caught in each trap during the whole summer.

3.4 Sampling strategy

A systematic sampling strategy formed the core of this study. A total of 100 potential trap locations were placed in a 40 km × 40 km area (58° 0´ – 22´N, 15°50´ - 16°4´E) with 4 km distance between traps (Figure 1a). The traps in the field were placed in the nearest possible tree from the target coordinates. The placements were adjusted in a few cases because of logistic reasons or when the target site was located in a lake or an arable field (in one case, I failed to obtain access permission from the landowner).

A strategic sampling was also implemented in the present study. Both systematic sampling and strategic sampling were conducted

simultaneously, however strategic sampling was used to obtain validation data sets. Two types of validation data sets were used: a) strategic

sampling within the study area and b) strategic sampling in the entire Östergötland (Figure 1b). These two data sets are hereafter referred to as ‘strategic’ and ‘Östergötland’. For the strategic data set, 78 traps were put up mainly within the same 40 km × 40 km area, as for the dataset based on systematic sampling. Stands with oaks were selected in such a way that the stands represent a variation of single trees to sites with a large number of oak trees in the surroundings. The traps were placed in the centre of each site, and the minimum distance between traps was 500 m. For the Östergötland data set, 47 traps, that were part of a separate study (Andersson et al. in prep), were placed in ‘hot spots’ around

Östergötland. These sites had originally been defined as those with oaks that were judged to be locally the best for saproxylic beetles (c.f. Jansson 2009, Jansson et al. 2009a, Bergman et al. 2012)

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3.5 Calculation of tree densities

I calculated the tree density around each trap based on data on large trees in the county of Östergötland, provided by the County Administration Board of Östergötland. The inventory for this data set was carried out between 1997 and 2008 (Claesson & Ek 2009). The data set contains information such as the coordinates, tree species, circumference and hollow stages of each tree surveyed. There are five stages of hollows according to Claesson & Ek (2009). Trees without hollow are classified as stage 3, while trees with a hollow are classified as stage 4, 5, 6 or 7, depending on the size of the hollow (e.g. stage 4 is a tree with a cavity approximately 5 cm diameter, and stage 7 is a tree with a large hole reaching down to the ground). The total number of deciduous trees in the study area (49.4 km × 49.4 km) was 28,184 and these belonged to 19 taxa (Table 1). 4.7 km were added to each side of the 40 km × 40 km large grid with traps to include all trees within a 4658 m radius around the traps along the margin of the trap grid.

In the present study, the trees with hollows were divided into two groups according to their diameter at breast height (dbh); hollow trees above 1 m dbh and hollow trees below 1 m dbh. All trees without hollows and above 0.7 m dbh were defined as non-hollow trees. Non-hollow trees with

diameter below 0.7 were not included in the study. Then, all tree species were divided into six groups; Quercus, Noble 1, Noble 2, Rosales,

Malpiphiales and Fagales (Table 1). Group Quercus contained only one species, i.e. Quercus robur, as this tree species is considered the main preference for E. ferrugineus in Sweden (Gärdenfors 2010). In Swedish legislation, there are 13 broadleaved tree species that are classified as ‘noble’ (ädellöv in Swedish) (Paltto et al. 2006). Seven out of 13 broadleaved tree species were included in this study and have been reported as main hosts to E. ferrugineus in Sweden (Gärdenfors 2010). They were assigned into group Noble 1 and Noble 2, based on a

combined consideration of phylogeny and wood properties. Trees which belong to the phylogeny group of Eurosids I and have higher wood fresh weight were categorized as Noble 1. Noble 2 is made up of four tree species that have lower wood fresh weight. Three of the species in this group belong to Eurosids II and the other one belongs to Euasterids I (APG II 2003). The rest of the tree species were assigned into groups based on their taxonomic order.

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Table 1. Deciduous trees in the study area (49.4 km × 49.4 km) categorized according to the six tree groups and three tree hollow groups: ‘hollow’, which were then divided into two groups according to the diameter at breast height (dbh), and ‘non-hollow’ regardless of the diameter size.

Tree group Hollow group No of trees

Quercus: >1 m dbh 1795

Quercus robur <1 m dbh 2965

Non-hollow 4543

Noble 1: >1 m dbh 93

Carpinus betulus <1 m dbh 370

Fagus sylvatica Non-hollow 1252

Ulmus glabra

Noble 2: >1 m dbh 474

Acer platanoides <1 m dbh 3205

Aesculus hippocastanum Non-hollow 3261

Fraxinus excelsior

Tilia cordata

Rosales: >1 m dbh 21

Malus sp. <1 m dbh 2210

Prunus avium Non-hollow 158

Pyrus communis

Sorbus aucuparia

Sorbus intermedia

Malpiphiales: >1 m dbh 85

Populus sp. <1 m dbh 5453

Populus tremula Non-hollow 604

Salix caprea

Salix sp.

Fagales: >1 m dbh 14

Betula <1 m dbh 1369

Alnus glutinosa Non-hollow 312

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3.6 Data analyses

Binomial generalized linear models (GLM) (logit-link; Statsoft 2012) were used to explore the relationships between the occurrence of E.

ferrugineus and tree density in surrounding circular areas. By comparing

models including the density of different groups of trees, I evaluated the relative importance of tree species for explaining the occurrence pattern of E. ferrugineus.

In the analyses, the tree density within 31 different circle radii was used, one at a time, to explain the occurrence of E. ferrugineus. For each of the circle sizes, a separate binomial GLM was run to explain the occurrences with the tree density of each tree quality group: hollow trees above 1 m dbh, hollow trees below 1 m dbh, and non-hollow trees. Wald values for each model were plotted against radii to determine the relative

importance of the three tree qualities. A certain tree quality group was considered important for E. ferrugineus if the model showed a significant positive relationship within at least one of the 31 different circle radii. Next, binomial GLM were run to find out tree groups important to explain the occurrence of E. ferrugineus, in a similar way as above: A separate binomial GLM was run to explain the occurrences with the tree density within the 31 different radii, with separate analyses for each tree group: Quercus, Noble 1, Noble 2, Rosales, Malpiphiales and Fagales. Then, the correlation structure of the tree groups selected was evaluated. Densities for all important tree groups were summed up and binomial GLMs were used to find out at which spatial scale (i.e. within which circle radius) the relationship between occurrence and tree density was strongest. The spatial scales at which the Wald value was largest was identified as the characteristic scale of response (Bergman et al. 2012), provided that density was positively related to the probability of

occurrence.

The model explaining the occurrence of E. ferrugineus at the characteristic scale of response was used to calculate tree densities required for 25%, 50%, 75% and 90% probability of occurrence of E.

ferrugineus. These tree densities were then used in ArcGIS 10 (ESRI

2011) with the Kernel density function, to make prediction maps using the relevant tree in the database. The number of catches from the two validation data sets was then compared with the beetle’s predicted distribution.

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Finally, accuracy was calculated in order to measure how accurate the model can predict the beetle’s occurrence. Accuracy was calculated using the equation below:

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Where; a – number of traps occupied with beetles b – number of empty traps

x – number of traps falsely predicted as occupied y – number of traps falsely predicted as empty

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4 Results

In this study, there was a total of 46 captures of E. ferrugineus, including 10 recaptures, at 16 out of the 99 trap locations.

4.1 Selecting important tree qualities

A total of 28,184 trees from 19 taxa were included in the present study. Nine per cent (2482 trees) of the total number of trees were hollow trees above 1 m dbh, while 55% (15572 trees) and 36% (10130 trees) were hollow trees below 1 m dbh and non-hollow trees above 70 m,

respectively (Table 1).

Overall, the three binomial GLMs explaining occurrence with different tree hollow qualities showed significant relationships that were stronger at increasingly larger spatial scales (Figure 2). E. ferrugineus started responding significantly (P < 0.05, corresponding to Wald > 3.9) with the amount of hollow trees above 1 m dbh and non-hollow trees, from the smaller scale, 187 m and 142 m, respectively. Hollow trees below 1 m dbh showed significant relationship at larger scale, 1324 m. Since all three tree hollow groups played an important role in predicting

occurrence of E. ferrugineus, all tree hollow groups were included in calculating tree densities for the tree groups (Table 1).

Figure 2. The relationship between the occurrence of Elater ferrugineus and density of trees according to the tree quality; hollow trees above 1 m dbh, hollow trees below 1 m dbh and non-hollow trees. All models showed positive relationship between tree density and probability of occurrence from the smallest scale. The grey line indicates P < 0.05, corresponding to Wald value 3.9.

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4.2 Tree groups important for Elater ferrugineus

Quercus constituted 33% (9303 trees) of the total number of trees

included in the present study, followed by Noble 2 with 25% (6940 trees) and Malpiphiales with 22% (6142 trees). Noble 1 and Fagales were the smallest groups (1715 and 1695 trees, respectively).

The occurrence of E. ferrugineus increased with increasing density of trees in three out of six tree groups: Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2

(Figure 3). The occurrence was best explained by the density of Quercus followed by Noble 2 and Noble 1. The density of the three tree groups, Rosales, Malpiphiales and Fagales did not explain the occurrence of E.

ferrugineus (Figure 3).

Figure 3. The Wald value from GLM models (expressing the strength of the models) tests the relationship between the occurrence of E. ferrugineus and tree density for the tree density including six different tree groups at 31 spatial scales. The grey line indicates P < 0.05, corresponding to Wald value 3.9.The Wald statistic was given negative values in cases when it indicated a negative association between probability of occurrence and tree density.

4.3 The characteristic scale of response

Based on the first set of binomial GLM analysis between the occurrence of E. ferrugineus and density of tree groups, Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2 significantly explained the occurrence of E. ferrugineus. Figure 4

shows the relationships between the occurrence of E. ferrugineus and the pooled density of these three tree species groups. This relationship is best explained at a scale of 4051 m, but the occurrence is also

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compared to the other circle radius of the spatial scales. The overall magnitudes of the Wald values produced by these analyses were similar to the values for Quercus in Figure 3 (also shown in Figure 4), where two peaks was even more clearly shown for Quercus. This means that both

Quercus alone, and in combination with Noble 1 and Noble 2 explain the

occurrence of E. ferrugineus equally well, although there are some differences in their impact at some of the intermediate spatial scales. In the model including only the tree group Quercus, the occurrence of E.

ferrugineus was best explained at 327 m and 4658 m (Figure 3 and 4).

Since the two models predict occurrences equally well, both models and their respective characteristic scales were used in predicting the

occurrence of E. ferrugineus using the validation data sets.

The densities of trees in the groups Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2 were correlated to some extent (Figure 5), but this fact could not easily explain the two peaks in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Characteristic scale of response for E. ferrugineus using two model: i) a combination of the density of Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2, and ii) density of Quercus only. The grey line indicates P < 0.05, corresponding to Wald value 3.9. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 70 107 163 248 376 573 871 1324 2014 3063 4658 W a ld Radius (m) Quercus

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4.4 Prediction on occurrences of Elater ferrugineus

Tree densities were used to map the predicted range for Elater

ferrugineus. Densities corresponding to 25%, 50%, 75% and 90%

probability of occurrence of E. ferrugineus were calculated at two sets of characteristic scales of response: 433 m and 4051 m for Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2 combination model; and 327 m and 4658 m for the model based on Quercus only (Table 2). These data were used to predict the potential range of E. ferrugineus in the study area (Figure 6 a, b). When data of the beetle sampling from the present study were cross validated with the predicted occurrence made based on the probability of occurrence of E. ferrugineus, most of the occupied traps were found to be located in the area that had the two characteristic scales of response

overlapped (Figure 6 c-f). This confirms that tree densities at both scales of response are important for E. ferrugineus in sustaining its population. The prediction maps also showed some sites where no beetle was caught but have high probability of occurrence (Figure 6 e, f).

Overall, the model that used only Quercus to predict the occurrence of the beetle showed higher accuracy in most of the predictions compared to the combined density model of Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2 when validated with strategic and Östergötland’s data sets (Table 3). Also, the models for the larger of the two characteristic scales predicted

occurrences slightly better.

Figure 5. Correlation between three tree groups that have significant relationship with the occurrence of E. ferrugineus. Correlation between the density of Quercus and the pooled density of group Noble 1 and Noble 2 was also evaluated.

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Table 2: Tree density requirement to predict the probability of occurrence of Elater ferrugineus for both characteristic scales of response and for the two candidate models.

Model

Characteristic scales of response (m)

Requirement of tree density (tree haˉ¹)

25% 50% 75% 90% Quercus + Noble 1 + Noble 2 433 0.16 0.32 0.48 0.64 4051 0.11 0.16 0.20 0.25 Quercus 327 0.10 0.19 0.28 0.37 4658 0.07 0.11 0.15 0.18

Table 3: The accuracy of two models in predicting the occurrence of Elater ferrugineus were calculated in 25%, 50%, 75% and 90% chance of

occurrence of E. ferrugineus at a potential site. The ‘Strategic’ dataset consist of data from the same study area (40 km × 40 km) as used in the main

analyses. Model Validation data set Characteristic scale (m) Probability of occurrence 25% 50% 75% 90% Quercus + Noble 1 + Noble 2 Strategic 433 0.59 0.69 0.72 0.74 4051 0.76 0.78 0.74 0.74 Östergötland 433 0.45 0.49 0.55 0.62 4051 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 Quercus Strategic 327 0.62 0.71 0.77 0.78 4658 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.77 Östergötland 327 0.38 0.45 0.47 0.49 4658 0.77 0.81 0.70 0.66

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Figure 6. Prediction maps of Elater ferrugineus showing 25%, 50%, 75% and 90% probability of occurrence at two characteristic scales of response (blue tones represent a smaller scale: 433 m (model based on the pooled density of Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2) and 327 m (model based on the density of Quercus only), while orange tones represent prediction at larger scale: 4051 m (for Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2 model) and 4658 m (for Quercus model). Empty traps are presented by cross (×) while occupied traps are marked with open circles (Ο). The size of the open circles is proportional to the number of individuals caught. The predicted range is shown in three set of maps: (a,b) the systematically sampled dataset in the study area, (c,d) the strategically sampled validation data set within the study area and (e,f) validation data set sampled in the entire Östergötland.

Quercus + Noble 1 + Noble 2 25% 50% 75% 90% Occupied traps Empty traps Quercus Probability of occurrence a d c b e f

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5 Discussions

The use of sex pheromone as a trapping method is a very efficient method to study E. ferrugineus as manifested during the field work of the present study. This method managed to capture the adults of E. ferrugineus in about 23% of the total trap locations, in contrast to Ranius (2002a) who found larvae or fragments of E. ferrugineus in only 2% of the oak stands and no adults at all.

The occurrence of E. ferrugineus was best explained by the density of large hollow trees and large non-hollow trees, i.e. the size of the tree seems to be more important for the beetle compared to presence of hollows. The effect of hollow trees was expected because their larvae develop exclusively in hollow deciduous trees (Tolasch et al. 2007), but the stronger effect of large hollow trees in contrast to the weaker effect of small hollow trees has not been documented earlier. A study regarding saproxylic beetles by Ranius and Jansson (2000) show that species richness in hollow trees increases as the tree girth increases, and hence with age. This could probably mean that many beetle species prefer older trees because as the tree grows older, the quantity of wood mould is higher (Ranius 2002b). Ranius (2002b) also stated that wood mould only begins to form in the trunks when the trees are much older, about 150-200 years old, thus the relatively weak response by E. ferrugineus towards small hollow trees.

Unlike the strong relationship between E. ferrugineus and large hollow trees, the strong relationship between E. ferrugineus and non-hollow trees was unexpected. The number of non-hollow tree individuals is four times higher compared to the number of large hollow trees, and if the non-hollow trees are used by E. ferrugineus to some minor extent, this could at least partly explain the effect. Another possible reason is that large trees in general are hollow but the entries may be too small to be noticed during the tree surveys.

Strong significant relationship between the occurrence of E. ferrugineus and the density of Quercus indicates that Quercus is the main habitat of the beetle, and this is in accordance with what had been reported by Palm (1959) and Gärdenfors (2010). Jonsell et al. (1998) found that Quercus is the most species-rich genus according to saproxylic species. Quercus is probably preferred as a substrate by saproxylic beetles because their volume of wood mould is generally higher and has a slower

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Also the density of trees in the groups Noble 1(Carpinus, Fagus, Ulmus) and Noble 2 (Acer, Aesculus, Fraxinus, Tilia) explained the occurrence of the beetle but the effect was weaker especially for the group Noble 1. This could be due to a low proportion of trees in this group (6%). The proportion of trees in the group Noble 2 was the second highest (25%) after Quercus (33%). Although the proportion of trees in the group Noble 2 was relatively high, the proportionally much stronger effect of the density of Quercus indicates that the occurrence of E. ferrugineus is much more dependent on Quercus. As the density of the trees within the groups Noble 1 and Noble 2 significantly explained the occurrence of E.

ferrugineus, and most of the tree species in these groups have been

recorded as housing this species (Palm 1959, Gärdenfors 2010, Allen 1966 in Meržijevskis & Tamutis 2010), these trees are probably a complementary host tree, in addition to Quercus, to the beetle. E.

ferrugineus was not explained by the density of the other tree groups,

Rosales, Malpiphiales and Fagales, probably because these groups of trees cannot grow as old and as large as Quercus.

The occurrence of E. ferrugineus responded to the densities of Quercus at both small and large spatial scales, 327 m and 4658 m, respectively. A similar response to two spatial scales was found for the beetle Tenebrio

opacus (Bergman et al. 2012), where this dual response was interpreted

as a response at two time scale. The smaller scale may reflect the static patches that E. ferrugineus need to sustain its population at a short time scale. On a longer time scale, a large amount of substrate may be needed at a larger spatial scale. The accuracy of the predictions made based on the amount of Quercus in the two spatial scales are slightly higher compared to the prediction made based on the pooled tree density of group Quercus, Noble 1 and Noble 2. This finding showed that Quercus plays an important role in explaining the occurrence of E. ferrugineus. The predictions also show some areas with high probability of occurrence but no beetles were caught with pheromone traps in those areas. These areas might have the potential to be suitable patches for reintroduction for

E. ferrugineus. Establishing corridors using artificial wood mould

(Jansson et al. 2009b) can probably help in moving the beetle’s

population from currently occupied ‘hotspots’ to new areas that have high potential as suitable patches.

To conclude, for the conservation management for E. ferrugineus, priority should be given to Quercus as the density of this tree species explained the occurrence of E. ferrugineus better than the densities of other trees. However, a mixture of other deciduous trees such as

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Carpinus, Fagus, Ulmus, Acer, Aesculus, Fraxinus and Tilia may act as a

complement to Quercus. The response of E. ferrugineus to the tree density at two separate scales indicates that a multi-scale approach is preferable to predict the occurrence of this saproxylix beetle. Therefore, conservation planning of this beetle should focus at both small and large spatial scales. Within these two spatial scales, it is important that the density of Quercus is high enough to sustain the populations of E.

ferrugineus.

6 Acknowledgements

Million thanks to my supervisors, Per Milberg and Karl-Olof Bergman, for their continuous help and support. I also would like to thank Heidi Paltto for helpful comments on the manuscript. Many thanks go to Mattias Larsson and his research team from SLU Alnarp for their ideas. Thanks to Lars Westerberg for helping me with ArcGIS and to Nicklas Jansson for sharing valuable knowledge on saproxylic beetles. Thank you to fellow students: Brenda Akoto, Henrik Norman and Sofia Nygårds for their constructive comments on the manuscript and to Antonin Leclercq, Johan Jensen, Klas Andersson, Kristina Bergman and Per Saarinen for their help during the field work. I am grateful to the landowners who kindly granted permission to use their land as study sites and finally thank you to Wala och Folke Danielssons fond and Stiftelsen Oscar och

Lili Lamms minne for the financial supports.

7 References

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