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View of Dynamic systems modeling to identify a cohort of problem drinkers with similar mechanisms of behavior change

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Supplemental Material

PID 1761

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

22 Number of drinks, PID1761

A data A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Norm Violation, PID1761

V data V model

(b) Norm Violation

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1761

Cf data Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1761

Ch data Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 1: PID 1761 data and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.592, a2 =

(2)

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 V model (b) Norm Violation Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1761

Cf data

Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1761

Ch data

Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 2: PID 1761 data averaged every 3 days and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.476, a2 = 0.271, a3= 0.048, a4 = 0.031, v1 = 0.099, v2 = 0.086, d1 = 0.017, d2 = 0.087,

b = 7.319, r = 0.043, l = 2.055, m = 0.045, k = 3.618, A0 = 12.572, V0 = 2.100, Cf0 = 1.482,

(3)

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

22 Number of drinks, PID1761

A data A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Norm Violation, PID1761

V data V model

(b) Norm Violation

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1761

Cf data

Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1761

Ch data

Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 3: PID 1761 data averaged every 5 days and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.497, a2 = 0.259, a3= 0.065, a4 = 0.026, v1 = 0.130, v2 = 0.082, d1 = 0.019, d2 = 0.109,

b = 6.849, r = 0.047, l = 2.413, m = 0.034, k = 3.888, A0 = 12.186, V0 = 2.060, Cf0 = 1.539,

(4)

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 Number of drinks, PID1771

A data A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Norm Violation, PID1771

V data V model

(b) Norm Violation

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1771

Cf data

Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1771

Ch data

Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 4: PID 1771 data and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.234, a2 =

0.074, a3 = 0.062, a4= 0.002, v1= 1.752, v2 = 0.364, d1= 0.535, d2 = 0.367, b = 1.654, r = 0.035,

l = 4.048, m = 0.090, k = 3.054, A0 = 7.012, V0 = 2.468, Cf0 = 0.798, Ch0 = 1.067, α = 0.945, and

(5)

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 Number of drinks, PID1771

A data A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Norm Violation, PID1771

V data V model

(b) Norm Violation

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1771

Cf data

Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1771

Ch data

Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 5: PID 1771 data averaged every 3 days and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.480, a2 = 0.190, a3= 0.037, a4 = 0.029, v1 = 0.250, v2 = 0.100, d1 = 0.120, d2 = 0.100,

b = 2.000, r = 0.030, l = 4.000, m = 0.120, k = 3.020, A0 = 7.580, V0 = 2.760, Cf0 = 0.820,

(6)

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 V model (b) Norm Violation Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1771

Cf data

Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1771

Ch data

Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 6: PID 1771 data averaged every 5 days and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.564, a2 = 0.124, a3= 0.159, a4 = 0.003, v1 = 1.683, v2 = 0.518, d1 = 0.574, d2 = 0.378,

b = 2.106, r = 0.013, l = 3.033, m = 0.069, k = 3.124, A0 = 6.549, V0 = 2.153, Cf0 = 1.077,

(7)

PID 1460

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Number of drinks, PID1460

A data A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Norm Violation, PID1460

V data V model

(b) Norm Violation

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1460

Cf data

Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1460

Ch data

Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 7: PID 1460 data and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.169, a2 =

0.005, a3 = 0.100, a4= 0.001, v1= 0.497, v2 = 0.262, d1= 0.079, d2 = 0.226, b = 8.407, r = 0.032,

l = 7.993, m = 0.072, k = 3.195, A0 = 11.156, V0 = 0.356, Cf0 = 1.978, Ch0 = 0.918, α = 0.686,

(8)

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 V model (b) Norm Violation Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1460

Cf data

Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1460

Ch data

Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 8: PID 1460 data averaged every 3 days and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.170, a2 = 0.156, a3= 0.078, a4 = 0.001, v1 = 0.249, v2 = 0.384, d1 = 0.071, d2 = 0.223,

b = 11.442, r = 0.020, l = 7.586, m = 0.115, k = 3.779, A0 = 11.131, V0 = 0.547, Cf0 = 1.936,

(9)

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 No. of drinks 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Number of drinks, PID1460

A data A model A*

(a) Alcohol Consumption

Days 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Norm Violation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Norm Violation, PID1460

V data V model

(b) Norm Violation

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Confidence of not to drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Confidence to not drink heavily, PID1460

Cf data

Cf model

(c) Confidence

Days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Commitment to not drink heavily

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Commitment to not drink heavily, PID1460

Ch data

Ch model

(d) Commitment

Figure 9: PID 1460 data averaged every 5 days and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a1 = 0.127, a2 = 0.173, a3= 0.057, a4 = 0.012, v1 = 0.313, v2 = 0.488, d1 = 0.075, d2 = 0.256,

b = 6.022, r = 0.008, l = 6.204, m = 0.040, k = 3.718, A0 = 12.210, V0 = 0.101, Cf0 = 1.936,

Figure

Figure 1: PID 1761 data and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a 1 = 0.592, a 2 = 0.424, a 3 = 0.039, a 4 = 0.039, v 1 = 0.120, v 2 = 0.099, d 1 = 0.013, d 2 = 0.191, b = 6.996, r = 0.036,
Figure 2: PID 1761 data averaged every 3 days and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a 1 = 0.476, a 2 = 0.271, a 3 = 0.048, a 4 = 0.031, v 1 = 0.099, v 2 = 0.086, d 1 = 0.017, d 2 = 0.087, b = 7.319, r = 0.043, l = 2.055, m = 0.045, k = 3.618,
Figure 3: PID 1761 data averaged every 5 days and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a 1 = 0.497, a 2 = 0.259, a 3 = 0.065, a 4 = 0.026, v 1 = 0.130, v 2 = 0.082, d 1 = 0.019, d 2 = 0.109, b = 6.849, r = 0.047, l = 2.413, m = 0.034, k = 3.888,
Figure 4: PID 1771 data and model solution. Estimated parameter values are a 1 = 0.234, a 2 = 0.074, a 3 = 0.062, a 4 = 0.002, v 1 = 1.752, v 2 = 0.364, d 1 = 0.535, d 2 = 0.367, b = 1.654, r = 0.035, l = 4.048, m = 0.090, k = 3.054, A 0 = 7.012, V 0 = 2.4
+6

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