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“Knowledge-based tools for sustainable governance of energy and climate adaptation in the Nordic periphery”

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Knowledge-based tools for sustainable

governance of energy and climate

adaptation in the Nordic periphery

(K-Base)

Janne Hukkinen, Klaus Georg Hansen, Richard Langlais,

Rasmus Ole Rasmussen, Steen Jeppson, Jarkko Levänen,

Freia Lund Sørensen, Peter Schmitt, Stefanie Lange

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Nordic Council of Ministers Research Programme Report 2009:7 ISSN 1654-2290

Nordregio P.O. Box 1658

SE-111 86 Stockholm, Sweden nordregio@nordregio.se www.nordregio.se www.norden.se

Nordic co-operation

takes place among the countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, as well as the autonomous territories of the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland.

The Nordic Council

is a forum for co-operation between the Nordic parliaments and governments. The Council consists of 87 parliamentarians form the Nordic countries. The Nordic Council takes policy initiatives and monitors Nordic co-operation. Founded in 1952.

The Nordic Council of Ministers

is a forum of co-operation between the Nordic governments. The Nordic Council of Ministers implements Nordic co-operation. The prime ministers have the overall responsibility. Its activities are co-ordinated by the Nordic ministers for co-operation, the Nordic Committee for co-operation and portfolio ministers. Founded in 1971.

Stockholm, Sweden 2009

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Contents

1. Introduction 11

1.1 Objective and key findings 11

1.2 Approach 11

1.3 Structure of the report 14

2. Analytical approaches for sustainability governance 15

2.1 Approaches for micro-level analysis 15 2.1.1 Inferences from historical analogies 15 2.1.2 Public information flow analysis 16 2.1.3 Micro-level actor network analysis 17 2.2 Approaches for macro-level analysis 17 2.2.1 Transition analysis 18 2.2.2 Macro-level actor network analysis 19

3. Application of knowledge-based tools for

energy and climate adaptation in the Nordic periphery 21

3.1 Knowledge-based tools for policy anticipation phase 21 3.1.1 Indicators of historical analogies 21 3.2 Knowledge-based tools for policy planning phase 22 3.2.1 MCDA – Multicriteria Decision Analysis 22 3.2.2 Technological roadmapping 23 3.2.3 Indicators of public information flow 23 3.2.4 Micro-level actor network tool 24 3.3 Knowledge-based tools for policy implementation phase 25 3.3.1 Macro-level actor network tool 25

4. Feasibility of knowledge-based tools for practitioners 26

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Preface

The research programme, ‘Internationalisation of regional development policies – Needs and demands in the Nordic countries’ was commissioned by the Nordic Council of Ministers in the spring of 2005.

The aim of this programme is to undertake research on key issues, where it has been identified that new knowledge is needed, and where such knowledge could be seen to benefit the development and implementation of regional development policy in the Nordic countries.

The basis for the research programme is its Nordic character. Research should lead to new knowledge both for the academic world and for the world of policy and practice. Projects should add ‘Nordic value’, i.e. they should produce knowledge of relevance for several regions and countries across Norden. The research should moreover be comparative and collaborative across at least three Nordic countries or self-governed areas.

Three themes of high priority for the research programme have been identified; ‘regional governance’, ‘innovation and regional growth’, and ‘demography and labour migration’.

In addition to these priorities two additional crosscutting themes were also defined; ‘the enlargement of the EU and the challenges for Nordic regional development policies’ and the broad topic of ‘the three dimensions of sustainable regional development’; i.e. social, economic and environmental sustainability.

The research programme has been launched in two rounds. In the first round during the spring of 2005 it was decided to fund five projects. These were reported during 2007. In the second round during the spring of 2007 it was decided that a further five projects should be funded. These will be reported in 2008 and 2009. All project reports are published in this publication series dedicated to this programme. At the end of the programme, a synthesising report will also be produced where the most important findings are discussed. This report is planned to be published in the winter 2009/2010.

Nordregio wishes to thank the Nordic Senior Official Committee for Regional Policy and the Nordic Council of Ministers for providing this unique opportunity to develop new research-based knowledge and for encouraging cooperation and the exchange of ideas between Nordic researchers.

Nordregio would furthermore like to thank all of the involved research teams and the programme’s Steering Committee for their continuing contributions to the Nordic discourse on regional development.

Ole Damsgaard Margareta Dahlström

Director Coordinator of the research programme

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Authors’ Preface

What should local policy makers and practitioners in Nordic peripheries do in the face of climate change?

The question is an urgent one, because the impacts of climate change are felt most dramatically in Northern latitudes. This urgency motivated our research group to tackle the question pragmatically, by way of cases that from a substantial point of view are only loosely related but from the perspective of local communities and livelihoods are vitally important.

This report focuses on (1) the management of transitions to sustainable energy systems in West Norden, (2) the planning of an aluminium smelter in Greenland, (3) climate policy in Swedish municipalities, and (4) the implications of climate policy for reindeer management in Lapland. As a consequence of the studies, we can present a set of knowledge-based tools to assist policy makers and practitioners in their planning for sustainable adaptation to changes in energy provision and climate conditions. The case study working papers can be found as appendices.

Knowledge-based tools are practical indicators or checklists. They provide critical signals of a significant turn of events in the policy process (policy anticipation, policy planning and policy implementation) that the policy maker or practitioner in the field ought to be able to distinguish in her daily work.

We present the indicators and checklists in a generalizable form that practitioners and policy makers in peripheral regions outside Norden should also find helpful.

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1. Introduction

1.1 Objective and key findings

Although geographically remote, Nordic peripheries are rapidly assuming center stage in global energy and climate policy. These regions are likely to experience the most dramatic impacts of intensified energy extraction and global climate change. Formulated as they are in national and supra-national centers of decision-making, energy and climate policies assume a contract between the center and the periphery with minimal asymmetries in costs and benefits. Unfortunately, asymmetries often cannot be avoided. As a result, the notions of Nordic identity, Nordic region and Nordic regional policy are more than ever intertwined with the global energy situation and global climate change. The situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Norden: a challenge because of the severe negative implications for the quality of life if energy and climate issues are not successfully governed; an opportunity because Nordic countries can become the model to be emulated elsewhere in regional adaptation to global change.

The research project Knowledge-based tools for sustainable governance of energy and climate adaptation in the Nordic periphery (K-Base) has developed instruments for local level practitioners and policy makers with which they can face the challenges and opportunities in energy and climate policy. The objective of K-Base has been to develop knowledge-based tools for policy makers and practitioners in Nordic peripheries to assist them in planning for changes in energy provision and climatic conditions in a sustainable way. Our research group has tackled the task by drafting knowledge-based tools on the basis of five case studies: (1) Climate policy and reindeer management in Lapland, Finland, (2) Transitions to sustainable energy systems in West Norden, (3) Public information flow analysis and (4) Actor network analysis of the planning process to construct an aluminium smelter in Greenland, (5) Climate policy in Swedish municipalities.

Our research has produced locally applicable knowledge-based tools for sustainable environmental governance in northern peripheries, applicable across policy levels and during different policy phases. During the policy anticipation phase, the knowledge-based tool we propose is the development of indicators that reveal analogies between contemporary and historical developments. For the policy planning phase, we propose indicators of public information flow, actor network tools, multicriteria decision analysis and technological roadmapping. During policy implementation, actor network tools applied simultaneously at multiple levels hold promise.

1.2 Approach

Our approach has been to develop knowledge-based tools for coping with changes in energy provision and climate conditions by considering the policy process as a complex system with multiple actors, levels and phases. Table 1 summarizes the structure of our work by describing each analytical approach, its level of analysis, the policy phase it applies to, the knowledge-based tool derived from it, the empirical cases and the responsible partners. Table 1 raises several conceptual issues that need clarification at the outset.

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Table 1. Structure of the K-Base work

Legend: GHR = Greenland Home Rule; HUT = Helsinki University of Technology; NR = Nordregio; RU = Roskilde University

First, our work is about multi-level environmental governance, as seen from the perspective of local peripheries in Norden (column 2 in Table 1). We are interested in how climate change and energy policies formulated at national and supra-national levels of governance influence environmental policy and natural resource management at the local level, and how local governance can adapt to and occasionally transform the higher level policies. Our case analyses go both ways, some focusing on micro-level governance but also looking at macro-level linkages, others focusing on macro-level governance but also extending to micro-level linkages.

Second, we see knowledge-based tools as key instruments with which local policy makers and practitioners can adapt to the policies formulated at higher levels of governance (column 4 in Table 1). We make a conceptual distinction between analytical approaches (column 1 in Table 1) and knowledge-based tools. Analytical approaches are the approaches that we as researchers have used in our case studies (transition analysis, information flow analysis, actor network analysis, historical analogy analysis). These approaches, however, are of little immediate practical use to the policy maker or practitioner. We have therefore moved on from the analytical approaches and developed hands-on knowledge-based tools—specified in terms of indicators or checklists—for practitioners to identify in their daily work. Knowledge-based tools provide critical signals of a significant turn of events in the policy process (policy anticipation, planning or implementation) that the policy maker or practitioner in the field ought to be able to distinguish in her daily work. They can be indicators of a significant branching point in the course of development that locks the path to the future, or of a major disruption in the ordinary flow of matters that changes how things are done in the future, for example. We have been able to identify these indicators only by doing detailed case studies in which we have applied the analytical approaches. To help practitioners and policy makers in their daily work, however, we characterize the indicators and checklists in a more generalizable form that practitioners and policy makers elsewhere in peripheral regions should be aware of and monitor.

Analytical approach

Level of analysis

Policy phase Knowledge tool Primary case Complementary case Partner Inferences from historical analogies Micro with macro links Anticipation of changes in climate/energy policy Indicators of change in policy atmosphere and discourse Lapland reindeer management Energy transitions in West Norden (RU, NR, HUT) HUT Transition analysis Macro with micro links Ongoing policy planning Indicators of change in policy and strategy Energy transitions in West Norden Climate policy in Swedish municipalities (NR) RU Public information flow analysis Micro with macro links Ongoing policy planning Indicators of public information flow Alcoa Greenland Alcoa Iceland (GHR) GHR Micro-level actor network analysis Micro with macro links Ongoing policy planning Actor network tools Alcoa Greenland Alcoa Sub-Arctic Canada (NR) NR Macro-level actor network analysis Macro with micro links Policy implementation Indicators of change in politics, tactics, and project flow

Climate policy in Swedish municipalities Lapland reindeer management (HUT) NR

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Third, coping with a policy phase in our terminology means having a frame of reference against which to assess the meaning and significance—for the periphery—of the anticipated, planned, or implemented policy (column 4 in Table 1). For this assessment, we use indicators and checklists defined with reference to scenarios as the analytical framework that unifies the case studies. Scenarios are normatively oriented and factually supported narratives of the future, articulated for the purpose of making sense of future developments. Indicators/checklists are categorizations or measurements of key phenomena in the scenarios. Since different stakeholders to a particular environmental issue hold different views of what constitutes a desirable future, several alternative scenarios and related indicators can be developed for the issue.

Fourth, we see three policy phases (column 3 in Table 1) during which coping with energy and policy changes in Nordic peripheries can take place: (1) policy anticipation, when the overall direction of policy change can be articulated but its details are unknown, (2) policy planning, when the details of alternative policies are being laid out, and (3) policy implementation, when a particular policy has been chosen. While the last two phases are widely recognized features of the policy cycle, we introduce policy anticipation as a key policy phase to be aware of in peripheral regions. As our case studies illustrate, it is often the local actors’ lack of attention to major shifts in policy preparation in higher levels of administration that takes the peripheries by surprise and raises local level sentiments of being at the mercy of decisions made in the centers of power. Our knowledge-based tools aim to enhance local capacities to anticipate major policy shifts.

Fifth, we have primary and complementary cases (columns 5 and 6 in Table 1). Here our aim has been to increase confidence in the results with theoretical and methodological triangulation. Each primary case has been analyzed with one main approach. At the same time, each case has also been informed by another approach to check whether or not the results converge with the primary approach.

Sixth, we frequently refer to policy maker practitioners. We have fused two roles, policy maker and practitioner, into a single one to emphasize the hybrid character of policy and practice at the local level in Nordic peripheries. Policy making and practical livelihoods tend to be deeply integrated at the local level (Hukkinen 2008, Jamison 2001). An elected municipal council member in Sweden, for example, also has a daily profession, making this person a hybrid policy maker and practitioner. Or an active reindeer herder in Finland may also be an active political voice for the herder community vis-à-vis the central administration.

Seventh, the tight coupling of the roles of a policy maker and practitioner also raise issues of knowledge, expertise and evidence in policy. The nature of the policy concern at hand, that is, the impacts of energy provision and climate change at the local level, is characterized by systemic risks with epistemic uncertainties (Renn 2008). The policy concern is systemic in the sense that the specific risks to human health and environment arising from climate change and energy choices have broader socio-cultural consequences. The policy concern contains epistemic uncertainties in the sense that there is a lack of knowledge about the fundamental phenomena relating to local level climate change impacts. This ignorance about the specifics of a very complex phenomenon persuades us to question the traditional notion “evidence-based policy”, where knowledge is understood to be diffusing from the “factual” realm of scientific research to inform the “normative” realm of policy making. Instead, we take a humbler view to knowledge as a heuristic for good practice. Such knowledge arises not just in the realm of research but also in the realm of practice. Such knowledge is also explicit about the moral orientation underlying its factual basis: the search for factual evidence is guided by what the practitioners consider to be important things to know for the good of their livelihood (Hukkinen 2008). An important source of the heuristic knowledge we rely on are the hybrid experts, that is, the policy maker practitioners.

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1.3 Structure of the report

Although our empirical work consists of several case studies across the Nordic periphery, we focus in this final report on the knowledge-based tools. The report is structured along two dimensions (Table 2). First, in Section 2, we describe the analytical approaches with which we developed the knowledge-based tools for sustainability governance. The analytical approaches are divided into those primarily suitable for understanding micro-level environmental governance and those primarily suitable for macro-level environmental governance (although as our cases illustrate, the two levels frequently interpenetrate each other and have intermediate levels as well). Second, in Section 3, we describe the application of the knowledge-based tools for energy and climate adaptation in the Nordic periphery during the three policy phases detailed above: policy anticipation, policy planning and policy implementation. We conclude by considering in Section 4 the feasibility of the tools for policy maker practitioners. Detailed descriptions of the case studies can be found as appendices to this report.

Table 2. Knowledge-based tools according to policy level and policy phase

Note: number code after bullet-pointed knowledge-based tool refers to the section in which the tool is described in detail. Tools in parentheses indicate cross-level linkages.

Policy

level Policy phase

Policy anticipation Policy planning Policy implementation

Micro-level l analogies (3.1.1)Indicators of historical

l Indicators of public information flow (3.2.3) l Micro-level actor network tools (3.2.4) (l Micro-level actor network tools 3.2.4)

Macro-level (l Indicators of historical analogies 3.1.1)

l Multicriteria decision analysis (3.2.1) lTechnological roadmapping (3.2.2) lMacro-level actor network tools (3.3.1)

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2. Analytical approaches for

sustainability governance

2.1 Approaches for micro-level analysis

In our case studies we utilized three primarily micro-level analytical approaches. In the Lapland reindeer management case, we made inferences about the impacts of today’s climate change policy on peripheral regions on the basis of historically analogous situations (section 2.1.1). In the Alcoa Greenland case, we made an analytical triangulation with two approaches: an analysis of public information flows and an analysis of micro-level actor networks (sections 2.1.2 and 2.1.3, respectively).

2.1.1 Inferences from historical analogies

The overall aim of the case study on Lapland reindeer management was to study the implications of climate change for the reindeer herding livelihood and develop a set of indicators to measure those implications. We had two specific objectives: first, to evaluate the usefulness of historical analogies in the analysis of our data; and second, to develop an indicator or indicators for monitoring analogies between historical and present situations. Our empirical data includes three types of material: a re-analysis of 51 expert interviews conducted during the so-called RENMAN project (The challenges of modernity for reindeer management: integration and sustainable development in Europe’s subarctic and boreal regions; see Forbes et al. 2006); analysis of three documents concerning historical environmental changes in Upper Lapland that were written by reindeer herders during the RENMAN project (Heikkinen et al. 2003); and unstructured discussions with reindeer herders during two field trips in Sámiland (23.-25.4.2008 and 21.-23.9.2008).

According to local reindeer herders, the key drivers of change in their livelihood are not so much the changing climatic conditions as they are the new climate and energy policies. They base their assessment on historical knowledge concerning earlier large scale changes in the ecosystems in which they conduct their livelihood. Historical land use policies in Lapland caused substantial harm to reindeer herding. While studying the recent history of reindeer management in Upper Lapland in cooperation with our informants, we found two changes in particular that were in many ways very similar to the changes that have been anticipated in public discussion in Finland as a result of today’s climate and energy policies. These historical disruptions are hydropower reservoir construction since the 1950s and intensive forestry since the 1960s. These observations paved the way to the analytical approach we developed and the analysis we undertook.

We analyzed the history of Upper Lapland reindeer management in relation to the present situation with what we call the historical analogy approach. Analogies are a tool with which human cognition generates new knowledge based on earlier knowledge (Fauconnier and Turner 2002; Gentner et al. 2001; Coulson 2001). Analogical situations are not entirely similar with each other, but there are strong common denominators between them. Analogy has to do with the relations between objects, not the objects themselves. In the environmental field, for example, a typical analogy is industrial ecology, which not only helps us to understand the interactions between industry and environment in terms of material and energy flows, but also facilitates the formulation of potential systemic remedies to persistent environmental problems (Ausubel and Sladovich 1989; Allenby and Richards 1994). Analogical situations can be discerned at different spatial and temporal scales. Haila and Dyke (2006, 14) have argued that “Analogue models cannot be directly “fitted” from one situation to another. Instead they suggest qualitatively important aspects and processes that deserve particular attention in studying the other situation.” In this study we have looked for historical situations in our case study area that are analogous to climate change, especially from the policy point of view.

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Our research shows that policy discourse prior to the historical decisions after World War II to construct hydropower reservoirs and launch industrial forestry in Lapland have much in common with today’s policy discourse on climate change. Climate change today has lead to growing interest in hydropower construction and forest cutting in Lapland, because both are promising sources of renewable energy. Our working paper details the analogies between historical and current events. Here is one example. First, we can observe heightened political attention and rapid legislative changes in conjunction with the historical mega-projects and climate change today. Second, both the historical mega-projects and today’s anticipated climate-related energy projects have similar social, ecological and economic impacts on the livelihoods. The historical mega-projects have destroyed reindeer pastures and required rearrangements in the livelihood. We can already see deterioration of pastures as a result of existing forestry and hydropower reservoirs.

Inferences from historical analogies assist policy makers and practitioners to identify the local challenges of climate change and develop tools for responding to them. Although the key challenge of climate change is local adaptation and mitigation, today’s global climate scenarios and national adaptation strategies can say little about the local impacts of climate change. Our study shows that changes in both climatic conditions and climate policy impacts even inside a relatively small case study area (approx. 4 500 km2) can be dramatic.

2.1.2 Public information flow analysis

Public information flow analysis and the related knowledge-based tools were developed in the context of the Alcoa Greenland case study. The study comprises an analysis of the public information flow within a well defined topic, a well defined period of time, and a well defined set of media. The issue is the ongoing consideration of whether or not to give political approval to the USA based multinational aluminium company, Alcoa Inc, to construct an aluminium smelter in Greenland. The process involves a series of political decisions starting in 2006 with the acceptance of Alcoa’s interest in Greenland hydropower potential. In 2007, a Memorandum of Understanding for 2007-2009 was signed between the Greenland Government and Alcoa. The MoU assumes that a series of political decisions be taken. Three political decisions with the most public interest are 1) location of the aluminium smelter, 2) choosing the ownership model (Greenland as a partner or a concession on hydropower resources), and 3) final political decision on whether or not to accept the project.

Our case study focuses on the decision concerning the location of the aluminium smelter in Greenland. This decision was taken by the Greenland Parliament during the first five months of 2008. The analysis of public information flow is primarily based on information flow in the two national newspapers Sermitsiaq and AG. An analytical model for all information related to the aluminium project was designed. Any article related to the aluminium project was analysed on both objective criteria, including date, sender and length; and subjective criteria, including position expressed (positive or negative) in regard to several topics such as ownership, economy and environment. The data was organized in a database which forms the basis of statistical findings. Alongside with the empirical analysis of public information flow, separate analyses of the internal political and administrative information and decision flows were conducted. The two sets of information flow—the public and the internal political and administrative—were compared. The knowledge-based decision tool was developed on the basis of these findings, taking also into account the key dimensions of sustainable governance such as structures, processes, culture, time and resources.

We have not analyzed whether or not the prevailing societal conditions favor sustainable governance, as such analysis was considered to be beyond the scope of developing a knowledge-based decision tool. Nevertheless, an analysis of Greenland societal preconditions for adapting knowledge-based decision tools would be a pertinent future research project. In the absence of such study, it remains an open question if the Greenland socio-political system is geared toward the principles of governance for sustainability.

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2.1.3 Micro-level actor network analysis

We also applied micro-level actor network analysis in the Alcoa Greenland aluminium smelter case. In the Alcoa Greenland case, our purpose in applying two different analytical approaches (public information flow analysis and micro-level actor network analysis) was to improve the validity of our knowledge-based tools with analytical triangulation, given the importance of that particular case.

The case of Alcoa Greenland is well-suited for the actor network approach. As a focus of research it is explicitly and implicitly interdisciplinary in nature. The approach is question-driven—often a hallmark of interdisciplinary research (Klein, 1996)—and uses actor-network-theory in its most methodological sense, as a sociology of associations (Latour, 2006). Its theoretical claim is that our notions of sociological concepts are rediscovered and re-represented as we follow and describe the actors themselves, as they move through their actions and interactions, as strings of mediators, thereby constituting actor-networks. By following the actors in the Alcoa Greenland case, we create the social that is relevant for understanding that complex of interactions.

The very idea of “the social” exists in the configuration and description of the actor-network: materially, spatially, temporally and abstractly; it lasts as long as the actor-network has meaning for the actors. In other words, the performance of a study based on actor network theory, by virtue of its intricate and thick description, seeks to expose as much as it can of the complex interactions between actors so that they are clearly discernible, so that as much knowledge as possible can be gathered, inscribed and preserved, until the extent of the enquiry suffices (Law, 2004; Latour, 2005; Langlais, 2006). We followed as many of the relevant actors as possible. In-depth interviews (recorded, where possible), text analysis (reports, public records, policy statements, decision documents, etc.), participant observation at meetings of various kinds, group discussions (an element of action research), thick description and archival searches have been used. As such, this has, by definition, been eminently suitable as an integrative approach for a process of interdisciplinary teamwork (Lattuca, 2001).

Conflicting understandings and knowledge of the scientific “story” of climate change may be recruited for a variety of political ends. By studying the micro-level in Greenland, we address whether there is something different about climate change in aboriginally-informed knowledge tools; why that is so; and how that is being transformed into effective social change. The local appears in some cases to be superseding the national, and the relative weights of different jurisdictions are in flux. The degree to which this is applicable indicates the manner, directions and speed with which planners, stakeholders and decision-makers are expected to (re)act. Who is doing what? Are any of their actions especially innovative when considered from an international perspective? Do they demonstrate that they understand the scientific “story” and knowledge about climate change in different ways? As programmatic responses proceed, are specific spatial and regional development impacts (changes in employment, mobility, etc.) generated that can be of concern in Greenland? How does that feed back to the municipalities who have been bidding for the Alcoa Greenland smelter project? Can planners cope with the need to develop 100-year plans that can cope with the smelter project? It appears to us that the relations of power and the space for change are being re-arranged.

2.2 Approaches for macro-level analysis

Two of our analytical approaches can be characterized as being primarily macro-level but with micro-level links. We conducted a transition analysis of energy system transitions in the peripheries of West Norden and a macro-level actor network analysis of the implementation of climate change policy in Swedish municipalities.

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2.2.1 Transition analysis

The case study on energy system transitions in the peripheries of West Norden had two phases. The key question in the first phase of the study was the capacity and characteristics of existing energy systems and their development, including an outline of the key energy sources, how they have been developed during the last decades, and what have been the most marked changes. To understand the ongoing changes, their economic and political underpinnings were mapped, including an analysis of the economic and political measures with which energy goals were pursued. Different policies and instruments in particular were analyzed. Data sources for this part of the analysis were official documents, reports, statistical agencies, but also a number of personal contacts as well as interviews with 9 key persons in the national energy agencies.

The second phase of the analysis focused on local adjustments to changes in the periphery of West Norden. A key issue was the regional autonomy and dependencies in structuring regional and local energy systems, including an understanding of the local and regional responses to the overall policies. Key questions were how the local and regional producers and agencies have been involved in laying out strategies for future development, what kinds of networks have been developed, and what have been the driving forces of local adjustments to changes. Besides access to strategy and development documents, interviews were conducted with a total of 39 key managers and decision makers in the Nordic periphery and West Norden. They provided in-depth understanding of the options and adjustment processes that have been decisive for the present structure, as well as determining future directions of change.

To understand the ongoing changes in energy systems, the theoretical focus of the project was on transformation processes in which society changes in fundamental ways over longer periods of time, with an emphasis on the role of policies in bringing about structural change, and how their management involves sensitivity to existing dynamics and regular adjustment of goals to overcome the conflict between long-term ambitions and short-term concerns. A key point in this connection is that societal functions are fulfilled by socio-technical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e.g., artifacts, knowledge, markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks, and that transitions in the transformation process are conceptualised as system innovations, i.e., a change from one socio-technical system to another. The project has probed these socio-technological changes, with an emphasis on three different levels:

- The micro level comprising individuals or individual actors such as companies, environmental movements etc., often characterized by niche level of technological changes related to individual actors and technologies;

- The meso level comprising networks, communities and organizations, often characterized as socio-technical regimes, relating to dominant practices, rules and shared assumptions where the interests, rules and beliefs that underlie political policy are mostly geared towards optimising rather than transforming systems;

- The macro level comprising conglomerates of institutions and organizations such as cross-regional cooperations and national policies, relating to what is referred to as socio-technical

landscapes encompassing material and immaterial elements at the macro level: material infrastructure, political culture and coalitions, social values, worldviews and paradigms, the macro economy, demography and the natural environment.

A key concept to describe changes in socio-technical systems is transition management, particularly in relation to policy strategy focussing on the process of induced change towards sustainability. On one hand, transition management recognizes endogenous technological change, where issues such as the stock of human capital determine the rate of adjustment. On the other hand, external

relations including access to knowledge are integral factors in determining whether regions provide the relevant system of reference for knowledge-based economic development. In this connection the concept of Triple-Helix becomes relevant as a perspective on the integration of the micro, meso and macro levels.

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2.2.2 Macro-level actor network analysis

Our second macro-level approach is macro-level actor network analysis, which we applied in a case on municipal climate change policies in Sweden. The general impetus for studying climate change policies in Swedish municipalities stems from a curiosity to know why the climate change issue has been motivating some municipalities more than others to respond actively and concretely to its implications. What are the motivations that succeed in making a shift to acting on climate change? This is especially interesting since much of the key literature on the subject laments that this has not been happening. We have been surprised to see that a small number of municipalities have actually shifted to a degree of active response. It leads us to wonder if a more profound shift in the orientation of governance for sustainable development is occurring, or whether it is merely a shallow expression of a temporary fashion.

When checking the literature for precedents for this study, we find some theoretical postulations (see section 2.1.3) about how processes of municipal response to climate change might, could, or should, take place, but disproportionately little empirical research that describes or analyzes actual concrete attempts at active response. One reason is that to date such active responses have been few, thus making it even more imperative to study how they proceed, and why (Lundqvist and Biel, 2007; Wilson, 2006). Bylund (2006), for example, studied a Stockholm Local Investment Programme case that concerned sustainability, not climate change response.

In order, then, to perform this integrative theoretical and empirical enterprise, several techniques and methods were used. We performed investigative telephone interviews, with the person in charge of climate change response, in every municipality (all 290) in Sweden. Applying several detection indicators that we have derived, those results are being cross-checked with other data from other sources (e.g., municipality membership in international climate change organizations and networks, consultations with national authorities). Candidate municipalities are being re-assessed for usefulness as choices for further study. The data from Steps 1 and 2 are used to produce a map of all Swedish municipalities, showing the coarse levels of climate change response activity.

The object of the study was to discover what we didn’t already know about concrete climate change responses in Swedish municipalities. It was therefore important that we established contact with each municipality in a particular way. On the one hand, we wanted as much as possible to avoid having any preconceived notions. On the other, it was essential that the enquiry was done so that it would be the individuals who represented the municipalities who would tell us what

they themselves considered to be the appropriate answers to our questions. In other words, there should be as much self-selection as possible by each and every respondent, at all levels of contact.

The municipal register maintained by Statistics Sweden (SCB) was used in order to create a catalogue of all Swedish municipalities. We listed the municipalities alphabetically, to create a geographically-neutral randomization of the order that we would contact them in. In our contacts with each municipality, the chain of referrals eventually came to a stop only when we reached the person who was considered by his or her colleagues to be the one most suitable for answering queries about climate-change-related issues. Most frequently, the person we ended up talking with was an officer from the municipal environmental office (an inspector, a manager, an Agenda 21 coordinator, an ecologist, or, in some cases, an energy adviser).

In sum, we know little not only about how municipalities, but also how the other actors that are active in communities, use and manipulate the rhetoric of sustainability and climate change. It is possible that they enlist that rhetoric as a justification for doing what they would want to be doing anyway, at the same time as its use might unintentionally influence their actual work and its outcomes.

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3. Application of

knowledge-based tools for energy and

climate adaptation in the

Nordic periphery

3.1 Knowledge-based tools for policy

anticipation phase

3.1.1 Indicators of historical analogies

Analogical situations are not entirely similar to each other, but there are strong common denominators between them. Three common denominators characterize the analogies between the historical hydropower and forestry mega-projects and present climate change policies striving for large scale renewable energy production in Lapland:

- Center versus periphery confrontation, which refers to dominance and dependence relationships between the centers of power and peripheral regions.

- Underestimation of the effects of the policy or project under consideration, which refers to political discourse that is dismissive about the negative impacts of change.

- Erroneous assumptions about the upcoming change, which refer to the positively biased assumptions about the change resulting from policies.

These denominators play a crucial role in indicator development based on historical analogies. Given the unique historical development of each particular region, it is impossible to develop universal indicators. However, the three denominators provide overall guidance on what types of things to look for in any particular region with respect to climate policy. To craft the general denominators into more specific indicators of policy change, the following guidelines are useful:

Guideline 1. It is important to keep in mind that indicators based on historical analogies are knowledge-based tools for the policy anticipation phase, as opposed to policy planning or implementation. They are therefore not intended for everyday monitoring the way most indicators are. These are rather tools for planning long-term strategies for local adaptation to climate change, or for professional training intended to maintain the proficiency of local policy maker practitioners in climate adaptation. At the same time, we emphasize that “long-term” here does not stand for “slow and relaxed attention”. On the contrary, major policy change often picks up momentum quickly and requires alertness to recognize the windows of opportunity for influence.

Guideline 2. To be able to exploit historical information, the policy maker practitioner should be able to distinguish what are from today’s point of view the relevant historical changes from the irrelevant ones. This is where our common denominators come into play. Local policy maker practitioners can interpret the policy impulses coming from higher levels of administration or the feedback coming from the field level through the “historically enlightened” lenses that have been focused on center-periphery confrontation, underestimation or erroneous assumptions. In this way local policy maker practitioners can evaluate policies-in-the-making from the local point of view.

Guideline 3. Local policy maker practitioners can use the results of their evaluation of policies-in-the-making to empower their local community. This works both upstream and downstream

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in the policy cycle: if local policy maker practitioners observe indications of center-periphery confrontation, underestimation of impacts or erroneous assumptions, they can send systematically structured monitoring information back to higher level policy makers; and if local policy maker practitioners receive critical feedback from the field concerning these indicators, they have good reason to adjust their own policy.

Guideline 4. Clever actors can change the structures they are part of. Historically informed indicators empower the local community in an institutional sense. If local policy maker practitioners see themselves as active players in the broader scheme of policy making and find out ways of influencing it, they are in a position to develop self-determined, local survival strategies for the turbulence of multi-level climate governance. A community’s knowledge of its local history is part of its intellectual property, and indicators inferred from historical analogies constitute a tool for the community to exploit the intellectual property in a way that helps it to adapt to climate change in its own way.

3.2 Knowledge-based tools for policy

planning phase

Based on the analytical approaches outlined in section 2, four knowledge-based tools for policy planning phase have been analyzed, applied and tested in connection with the project: two for macro level policy planning (multi-criteria decision analysis and technological roadmapping described in sections 3.2.1 and 3.2.2, respectively) and two for micro level policy planning (indicators of public information flow and micro-level actor network tools described in sections 3.2.3 and 3.2.4, respectively). The macro level tools have been applied in connection with the analysis of energy system development in the Nordic periphery. While the empirical basis obtained from documents and statistics have served as key components in outlining the technological basis, the roadmaps have been tested through interviews with stakeholders in the region, and used as a means of identifying potential conflicts and deficiencies in policy measures. The micro level tools are based on the Alcoa Greenland case. It should be noted that the indicators of public information flow grew out of the public information flow analysis but is also closely related to technological roadmapping described in section 3.2.2. and acts thus as a link between the macro and micro level tools.

3.2.1 MCDA – Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Technology managers increasingly face problems of group decision where the scale and complexity of research, development and alliance efforts in emerging fields of technology mandate correspondingly sophisticated forms of group coordination. Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods are often used to help decision-makers in such situations. Decision Analysis is a set of systematic procedures for analyzing complex problems by dividing the decision problems into more manageable parts; analyzing each part; and logically integrating the parts to produce a meaningful solution. In general, MCDA problems involve six components:

- A goal or a set of goals the decision maker wants to achieve,

- The decision maker or a group of decision makers involved in the decision making process with their preferences with respect to the evaluation criteria,

- A set of evaluation criteria (objectives and/or physical attributes) - The set of decision alternatives,

- The set of uncontrollable (independent) variables or states of nature (decision environment) - The set of outcomes or consequences associated with each alternative attribute pair.

MCDA is a generic approach. To highlight how it might be applied as a knowledge-based adaptation tool in environmental policy, we will have a closer look at one of its pragmatic variants, technological roadmapping.

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3.2.2 Technological roadmapping

Several approaches have outlined variations of approaches to knowledge based decision making, which in many ways are variations of the MCDA described above. There are several ways of defining the key components. In our project, a general model of information flows and thresholds was outlined, leading to the following suggested structure of an adjusted technological roadmap in

determining and testing the relevant policy measures:

Phase 1. Preliminary activity phase, defining the essential conditions and outlining the scope and boundaries for the technology roadmap. In this connection the activity includes identifying also the critical issues determined by questions of systems maintenance versus systems integration, and systems replacement.

Phase 2. Development phase, encompassing (as general examples, but each step is case sensitive):

- identify the “product” of the roadmap, i.e. the overall structure to be analyzed - identify the critical system requirements and their targets

- specify the major technology areas (transform requirements) - specify the technology drivers and their targets

- identify technology alternatives and their timelines

- recommend which technology alternatives should be pursued - create the technology roadmap

Phase 3. Policy phase, outlining the policy measures and testing them towards existing as well as suggested forecasts of future conditions.

Phase 4. Follow-up activity phase (optional).

Technological roadmapping and multicriteria decision analysis (section 3.2.1) can be applied on micro, meso, and macro scales, provided adequate background indicator information is available. Such background indicators should be developed in advance and should in the case of energy systems encompass:

- Major technology areas - Critical system requirements - Transform requirements

- Technology drivers and their targets - Technology alternatives and their timelines - Policy measures

- Historical outlines

- Forecasts of future conditions.

3.2.3 Indicators of public information flow

The knowledge based decision tool that grew out of the analysis of the public information flow and the internal political and administrative information flow in the Alcoa Greenland case is a set of indicators to give the political system a way of measuring the state of the public information flow in relation to the internal political and administrative information flow. These are some of the key characteristics required of such an indicator system:

- One indicator of the inclusion of the public is the number of public debates on important policy issues. We consider it important to require at least three public debate contributions from ordinary citizens per month during three months.

- The nature of these contributions can be defined beforehand as at least a comment to an article on the electronic news sites (sermitsiaq.gl or knr.gl) or in the national newspapers.

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- These measurements are based on the principles of sustainability governance: it is assumed that the political system is interested in including the public in decision making before final decisions are made.

- The information that is available to politicians and administrators should also be made available to the public.

One of the dominating arguments from within parts of the existing political and administrative elite is that in projects of the size comparable to that of the aluminium project, the public cannot be trusted with all the information and that some of the information has to be confidential. Such attitudes clearly illustrate the limits of the existing political and administrative system to fully integrate the principles of sustainability governance.

3.2.4 Micro-level actor network tool

Actor network analysis can also be used as a knowledge-based tool at the micro level, focusing on the policy planning phase. Here we draw from the Alcoa Greenland mega-project case. We investigate how knowledge is obtained, applied and communicated within the mega-project’s planning process.

Knowledge is naturally embodied in people’s minds and is thus to some degree mobile. This commonplace is useful to recall because it strengthens the notion that place matters. With regard to Greenland, what are the relevant institutions, and more precisely, who are the individual experts? Are they totally Greenland-based or are they (and their knowledge) imported? To explore this further we need to distinguish between those forms of knowledge that can be easily codified (e.g. information to the municipalities about how the planning process is intended to take place) and so-called tacit knowledge, which is bounded to the knowledge carrier and difficult to transfer (e.g. expert knowledge of impacts caused by aluminium smelters in arctic-peripheral locations). In regional development planning, this distinction is critical, as it highlights the question of how far local/regional communities are able to organize and finally institutionalize learning processes and thus shape and foster their regional development path (cf. the discussion on learning regions by e.g. Hassink, 2001). In particular, what is the situation with regard to a peripheral-arctic environment (and its specific geo-political, historical and socio-cultural setting) with an assumedly low critical mass of available knowledge carriers in relation to such a highly ‘knowledge-loaded’ mega-project? The applicability of our findings and their compilation in knowledge-based tools rests upon the critical reconstruction of the planning process around the Alcoa Greenland mega-project (cf. case study report). We propose the following checklist of practical tools for knowledge-intensive mega-project planning in specific arctic-peripheral environments:

- Screen who identifies sources of knowledge that inform the stakeholders concerned. - Identify the sources of knowledge used to explore any issues/impacts related to the project. - Assess how such kinds of knowledge were used in the past.

- Explore how local knowledge management system can be incorporated in specific governance configuration established for the megaproject. What kinds of networks/coalitions are needed? - Identify cornerstones (of this governance configuration) with regard to the flow of knowledge

(acquisition>application>dissemination). Who are the powerful institutions/actors?

- Identify and inform who decides which kinds of knowledge are valuable. Which kinds are thought of as less important? How will decision-making process(es) be designed?

- Investigate what kinds of knowledge can be localized and exploited in the home region. What other kinds need to be imported from other regions (e.g. experts and their tacit knowledge)? - Analyze how a local knowledge management system can assure that different kinds of knowledge

are communicated to the public and stakeholders in an effective way.

- Assess how a local knowledge management system can assure that different kinds of knowledge are being maintained and institutionalized so that they contribute to and help organize the permanent absorption of (new) knowledge in this respect so that it contributes to a localizable learning process within a specific community?

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3.3 Knowledge-based tools for policy

implementation phase

3.3.1 Macro-level actor network tool

The knowledge-based tool we propose for policy implementation—macro-level actor network tool— draws from the example of climate change policy implementation in Swedish municipalities.

Since policy integration takes place over time and usually implies simultaneous implementation of policy and the involvement of multiple levels of government and governance, it is fascinating to consider the role of the individual bureaucrat or stakeholder in that maze of interactions. In their research on how high-level policy (i.e. the Kyoto Protocol and Swedish national policy) is implemented across and between multiple levels, even to that of the “individual,” Lundqvist and Biel (2007) conclude, following Dietz, Ostrom and Stern (2003), that “nested layering” of institutional arrangements, a mixture of institutional types and “analytic deliberation” among the parties and the public can increase legitimacy of implementation processes in multi-level settings. In the same context, the specific notions of cost instruments, trade-offs and their associated social dilemmas are discussed by Hammar and Jagers (2007). Pierre and Peters (2005) develop a typology of models of governance, between the extremes of “state-centric” and “governance without government,” a middle way, where institutions and the state play important roles, in an intensive complex of interactions both vertically and horizontally, between various actors in a flux of power relations.

When it comes to the actual implementation of policy, it is often left to planners to have to consider the implications of the trade-offs chosen so that the intended synergies can be secured and the potential for further synergies increased. Conflicts, hazards, costs, decoupling and risks are among the decelerating factors (Hibbard, et al., 2007) that are implicated when choices of strategies are closed. Schmidt-Tomé (2006), in his recent study of integration of risks, natural hazards and climate change into spatial planning practices, echoes—interestingly, given its perspective—the conclusions of several of the authors above (Nilsson and Eckerberg, 2007; Lundqvist and Biel, 2007; Pierre and Peters, 2005; Dietz, Ostrom and Stern, 2003) in an insistence on the importance of detailed communication processes that ensure “disciplinary, regional and inter-governmental cooperation to obtain multi-dimensional views . . . the development of appropriate adaptation strategies [in spatial planning] is a slow process that should integrate all relevant actors and stakeholders” (pp 27-28). In so far as those studies have made progress in identifying the important components in achieving appropriate combinations of different aspects of sustainable development, we in turn have proceeded to study concrete responses and to follow the actors themselves, in search of the meaningful patterns.

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4. Feasibility of

knowledge-based tools for practitioners

We conclude by assessing the feasibility of the knowledge-based tools for sustainable environmental governance with the help of five questions: Who should use the tools? Why and how to use the tools? When and where are the tools applicable? How to ensure the use of the tools? What is the impact of the tools?

Who should use knowledge-based tools for sustainable environmental governance? All of the knowledge-based tools described above are designed to be used by individuals we have characterized as local policy maker practitioners. These hybrid experts are common in the remote regions of Norden, where as a result of the real-life constraints on people and resources an individual not only holds an office related to policy making but also practices a local livelihood (Hukkinen 2008). These hybrid experts typically know the key changes in their own region’s environmental history and are also committed to applying such knowledge to improve local living conditions. To facilitate knowledge application, we have in the previous sections deliberately transformed the original analytical approaches into hands-on tools such as indicators and checklists that local level policy maker practitioners can easily identify in their daily work.

Why and how to use the tools? As the preceding sections show, most knowledge-based tools can be condensed into indicators or checklists. We consider the use of the checklists and indicators to be an indispensable pre-condition for implementing mega-projects in arctic-peripheral environments and their specific settings. Here the role of knowledge and the complex interplay between localized and non-localized (imported) sorts and sources of knowledge is of great importance. There is always the risk that such projects will only be governed by the functional logic of global footloose investors and a certain policy elite in the region at hand, as in our Greenland and Lapland cases. A local knowledge management system should ensure not only the incorporation of all sorts of local expertise, but also maintain and further develop the specific lessons learned (learning by doing, learning by interacting etc).

When and where are the tools applicable? The tools we have outlined can be applied both in desk studies and in connection with workshops. Furthermore, despite our indicative categorization into micro and macro levels, the tools can be applied on micro, meso and macro scales with feedbacks from one scale to another. Provided adequate background information (see section 3.2.2) is available, we believe the tools can be used to outline and test policy measures at all three levels. The main advantage of multi-level cross-fertilization is, however, that it enables the identification of missing links that may be crucial in the development of a coherent and inclusive national strategy for sustainable environmental governance.

How to ensure the use of the tools? Given the knowledge-intensive nature of today’s environmental policy issues, we think knowledge-based tools should become part of the professional training of local level policy maker practitioners. The training is particularly important today when local policy makers often come from outside the region are not familiar with the local situation and history. Cross-scale exchange of knowledge would be facilitated by organizing the training in cooperation with local inhabitants.

What is the impact of using the tools? In the long-run the application of knowledge-based tools for adaptive environmental governance can contribute to the endogenous development capacity of specific peripheral environments and to their capacity to shape their own regional development path, against the background of the broader geo-political context. We realize, of course, that the application of checklists and indicators will inevitably challenge some specific “organizing resources”,

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such as the Greenland Home Rule or the Forest and Park Service of Finland in our cases. However, investment in local knowledge-based tools is worthwhile in the long-run as it can help to better facilitate the complex and extremely knowledge-intensive planning processes. The tools can also improve the assessment of the potential environmental, social and economic impacts of mega-projects and make the whole process more transparent.

While the tools we have outlined hold clear potential for local level empowerment, they also hold more complex and ambivalent political implications. Let us return to the Alcoa Greenland case. We found that most of the information during the smelter planning process came from people or organizations involved in the political decision making or administration relating to the project. There were only a few contributions in the public debate from NGOs and independent experts. This reflects the weak role of independent voices such as the press in a small country like Greenland. It is reasonable to ask this: If the political system had access to the knowledge-based tools developed in this project, would they in fact be likely to use the tools to promote a wider public discussion before political decisions? In the Greenland case, the questions of time and timing turned out to be key elements influencing the promotion of public discussion. In more than one instance the actual political decision was taken before including of the public in the discussion. We cannot say on the basis of our analysis if this was the plan or just an accident. We can only hope that a deeper grounding of knowledge-based tools in the local culture as we have sketched in this report and its case studies would lessen the likelihood of exclusive politics.

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Contents

Appendices: Working papers on case studies

Climate policy and reindeer management in Lapland, Finland 33 Decision processes, communication and democracy: The aluminium smelter project in Greenland 57 The proposed ALCOA aluminium smelter in Greenland: A case study report 89 Transitions to sustainable energy systems in West Norden 111 A reflection on 1294 conversations: A discursive essay on knowledge-based

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Climate policy and

reindeer management

in Lapland, Finland

References

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