The arrival of the tipping point of solar photovoltaic technology

(1)

R R IV A L O F T H E T IP P IN G P O IN T O F S O LA R P H O TO V O LT A IC T EC H N O LO G Y 202 1 Ying Yang

(2)

Mälardalen University Press Dissertations No. 334

THE ARRIVAL OF THE TIPPING POINT OF

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY

Ying Yang 2021

School of Business, Society and Engineering

THE ARRIVAL OF THE TIPPING POINT OF

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY

Ying Yang 2021

(3)

Printed by E-Print AB, Stockholm, Sweden

(4)

THE ARRIVAL OF THE TIPPING POINT OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY

Ying Yang

Akademisk avhandling

som för avläggande av filosofie doktorsexamen i industriell ekonomi och organisation vid Akademin för ekonomi, samhälle och teknik kommer att offentligen försvaras fredagen den 30 april 2021, 09.00 i R1-343 + (via Zoom), Mälardalens högskola, Västerås.

Fakultetsopponent: Professor Reinhard Madlener, RWTH Aachen University

Akademin för ekonomi, samhälle och teknik

THE ARRIVAL OF THE TIPPING POINT OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY

Ying Yang

Akademisk avhandling

som för avläggande av filosofie doktorsexamen i industriell ekonomi och organisation vid Akademin för ekonomi, samhälle och teknik kommer att offentligen försvaras fredagen den 30 april 2021, 09.00 i R1-343 + (via Zoom), Mälardalens högskola, Västerås.

Fakultetsopponent: Professor Reinhard Madlener, RWTH Aachen University

(5)

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has become well-established for addressing both greenhouse gas emission reductions and regional air pollution. Rapid developments within the solar PV sector are still facing various technical barriers, economic impediments, and institutional barriers. The technical system innovations and their uses in society co-evolve with the engagement of multi-actors between scientific communities, users, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Therefore, a holistic and interdisciplinary approach is called to analyze the complexities and solve the issues.

This doctoral thesis takes a social science perspective in conjunction with technical considerations. China is a major producer and market for solar PV. But it is still not clear that how economically competitive solar PV electricity is, compared with the traditional coal-fired power generation without subsidies. Compared with China, the energy transition in Sweden has been progressively proceeding, which enables it to build a low-carbon economy with the lowest share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply. An interesting part is to explore how solar PV applications, along with smart city transformation, change the electricity market logic with the emerging of new actors. Further, it is vital to assess the potential availability of solar applications for policymaking and grid accommodation.

In this thesis, economic feasibility, grid party capability, and investment values in the market of China are modeled, calculated, and analyzed. The geographical and technical potential of solar PV applications is explored in Sweden. Also, based on a Service-Dominant logic perspective, the new players and their roles in the transformation of smart cities are explored, using the Swedish electricity market as an example. The results of the grid parity analysis show that distributed solar PV projects have reached a tipping point of cost-effectiveness, when solar PV can be guaranteed to be competitive with conventional power sources in the context of a subsidy-free in China. This also implies a gradual replacement of currently operating coal power plants. The investment return examination shows that profitability levels vary from city to city, taking into account local resource endowments and local economic conditions. By highlighting the flexibility issues associated with integrating a higher percentage of solar power, key performance indicators are presented to assess the performance of current individual technology components and combined system modules. Zooming out to the macro level, we show the theoretical explanation of how the Swedish electricity market is being changed by renewable energies and the emergence of new actors.

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has become well-established for addressing both greenhouse gas emission reductions and regional air pollution. Rapid developments within the solar PV sector are still facing various technical barriers, economic impediments, and institutional barriers. The technical system innovations and their uses in society co-evolve with the engagement of multi-actors between scientific communities, users, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Therefore, a holistic and interdisciplinary approach is called to analyze the complexities and solve the issues.

This doctoral thesis takes a social science perspective in conjunction with technical considerations. China is a major producer and market for solar PV. But it is still not clear that how economically competitive solar PV electricity is, compared with the traditional coal-fired power generation without subsidies. Compared with China, the energy transition in Sweden has been progressively proceeding, which enables it to build a low-carbon economy with the lowest share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply. An interesting part is to explore how solar PV applications, along with smart city transformation, change the electricity market logic with the emerging of new actors. Further, it is vital to assess the potential availability of solar applications for policymaking and grid accommodation.

In this thesis, economic feasibility, grid party capability, and investment values in the market of China are modeled, calculated, and analyzed. The geographical and technical potential of solar PV applications is explored in Sweden. Also, based on a Service-Dominant logic perspective, the new players and their roles in the transformation of smart cities are explored, using the Swedish electricity market as an example. The results of the grid parity analysis show that distributed solar PV projects have reached a tipping point of cost-effectiveness, when solar PV can be guaranteed to be competitive with conventional power sources in the context of a subsidy-free in China. This also implies a gradual replacement of currently operating coal power plants. The investment return examination shows that profitability levels vary from city to city, taking into account local resource endowments and local economic conditions. By highlighting the flexibility issues associated with integrating a higher percentage of solar power, key performance indicators are presented to assess the performance of current individual technology components and combined system modules. Zooming out to the macro level, we show the theoretical explanation of how the Swedish electricity market is being changed by renewable energies and the emergence of new actors.

(6)

(7)

Acknowledgement

This doctoral thesis was conducted at the School of Business, Society and En-gineering, Mälardalen University, Västerås, Sweden. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the China Scholarship Council, and The Swedish (National) Research School of Management and Information Technology.

I would like to express my profound gratitude toward my supervisors Pro-fessor Jinyue Yan, Associate ProPro-fessor Peter Ekman, and ProPro-fessor Ulf An-dersson for the continuous support. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to pursue my Ph.D., and your invaluable guidance, support, and encourage-ment have been excellent! I am grateful that you fundaencourage-mentally challenged me on this journey and made it a truly rewarding experience.

My deep and sincere gratitude goes to my senior colleague and co-author Associate Professor Pietro Elia Campana for his continuous comments, guid-ance, and patience in reviewing my papers. Pietro, thank you for taking the time to help me, give constructive criticism and positive appreciation, and drive me to higher standards. I would like to pay tribute to Dr. Bengt Stridh and Dr. Yang Zhang, for their vast knowledge and comments, which led to the successful completion of my research work. I thank my fellow Ph.D. candi-dates at the School of Business, Society and Engineering. You have given to and shared in my time as a Ph.D. student. Special thanks are due to my admin-istrative colleagues for your seamless adminadmin-istrative support.

I acknowledge the friends from Agape and La Familia, who mean a lot to me, for accompanying me, feeding me, sharing life with me, and helping me grow in faith. My friends in China have also been a major source of support. I could not have made it through the journey on my own without them being aside. I would like to express my wholehearted gratitude to my friend Pelle. Your wisdom, warm-heartedness, and care carry a special depth to me.

I would like to give very special thanks to my parents, parents-in-law, and siblings for supporting me throughout this process and throughout my life in general. Thank you, my mom and dad, who have always given me the liberty to pursue what I desire with the selfless love and care. Ultimately, this would have been impossible without my husband and my best friend Johannes. You are always around at times with love. You are the one whom I can depend on, share hardships with, and celebrate each accomplishment with. Most im-portantly, I thank God for the numerous blessings He has bestowed upon me

Acknowledgement

This doctoral thesis was conducted at the School of Business, Society and En-gineering, Mälardalen University, Västerås, Sweden. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the China Scholarship Council, and The Swedish (National) Research School of Management and Information Technology.

I would like to express my profound gratitude toward my supervisors Pro-fessor Jinyue Yan, Associate ProPro-fessor Peter Ekman, and ProPro-fessor Ulf An-dersson for the continuous support. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to pursue my Ph.D., and your invaluable guidance, support, and encourage-ment have been excellent! I am grateful that you fundaencourage-mentally challenged me on this journey and made it a truly rewarding experience.

My deep and sincere gratitude goes to my senior colleague and co-author Associate Professor Pietro Elia Campana for his continuous comments, guid-ance, and patience in reviewing my papers. Pietro, thank you for taking the time to help me, give constructive criticism and positive appreciation, and drive me to higher standards. I would like to pay tribute to Dr. Bengt Stridh and Dr. Yang Zhang, for their vast knowledge and comments, which led to the successful completion of my research work. I thank my fellow Ph.D. candi-dates at the School of Business, Society and Engineering. You have given to and shared in my time as a Ph.D. student. Special thanks are due to my admin-istrative colleagues for your seamless adminadmin-istrative support.

I acknowledge the friends from Agape and La Familia, who mean a lot to me, for accompanying me, feeding me, sharing life with me, and helping me grow in faith. My friends in China have also been a major source of support. I could not have made it through the journey on my own without them being aside. I would like to express my wholehearted gratitude to my friend Pelle. Your wisdom, warm-heartedness, and care carry a special depth to me.

I would like to give very special thanks to my parents, parents-in-law, and siblings for supporting me throughout this process and throughout my life in general. Thank you, my mom and dad, who have always given me the liberty to pursue what I desire with the selfless love and care. Ultimately, this would have been impossible without my husband and my best friend Johannes. You are always around at times with love. You are the one whom I can depend on, share hardships with, and celebrate each accomplishment with. Most im-portantly, I thank God for the numerous blessings He has bestowed upon me

(8)

Summary

Solar energy is one of the best options for meeting future energy needs be-cause of its advantages in terms of availability, accessibility, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness compared to many other energy sources. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has become well-established for addressing both greenhouse gas emission reductions and regional air pollution. As one of the main drivers of the energy transition, an in-depth understanding of the characteristics and economics of the solar industry is needed in order to integrate with policy interventions. Rapid developments within the solar technology sector are still facing various technical barriers, economic impediments, and institutional barriers. The technical system innovations and their uses in society co-evolve with the engagement of multi-actors between scientific communities, users, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Therefore, a holistic and in-terdisciplinary approach is called to analyze the complexities and solve the issues.

This doctoral thesis takes a social science perspective in conjunction with technical considerations. In recent years, there has been growing concern about solar tariffs in China, not only as a major producer but also as a major market for solar PV. Advances in technology and declining costs have driven significant cuts in solar subsidies by the authorities. The cost of solar PV is influenced by many local factors, so it is a challenge to know whether China has reached the threshold for grid-connected solar PV systems to supply elec-tricity to end-users at the same price as grid-supplied elecelec-tricity or desulfu-rized coal electricity or even lower. Further raised question is how economi-cally competitive solar PV electricity is, compared with the traditional coal-fired power generation.

Compared with China, the energy transition in Sweden has been progres-sively proceeding, which enables it to build a low-carbon economy with the lowest share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply. Sweden's energy transition has been achieved through information and communication technol-ogies, policy frameworks, and market instruments that have been able to fun-damentally change society and the actors within it. Smart cities are therefore relevant as a context for articulating the market transformation with regard to revising the understanding of actor roles, resources and business logic that is relevant for understanding the smart city transition. An interesting part is to explore how smart city transformation changes energy market logic with the emerging of new actors in the Swedish electricity market.

Summary

Solar energy is one of the best options for meeting future energy needs be-cause of its advantages in terms of availability, accessibility, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness compared to many other energy sources. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has become well-established for addressing both greenhouse gas emission reductions and regional air pollution. As one of the main drivers of the energy transition, an in-depth understanding of the characteristics and economics of the solar industry is needed in order to integrate with policy interventions. Rapid developments within the solar technology sector are still facing various technical barriers, economic impediments, and institutional barriers. The technical system innovations and their uses in society co-evolve with the engagement of multi-actors between scientific communities, users, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Therefore, a holistic and in-terdisciplinary approach is called to analyze the complexities and solve the issues.

This doctoral thesis takes a social science perspective in conjunction with technical considerations. In recent years, there has been growing concern about solar tariffs in China, not only as a major producer but also as a major market for solar PV. Advances in technology and declining costs have driven significant cuts in solar subsidies by the authorities. The cost of solar PV is influenced by many local factors, so it is a challenge to know whether China has reached the threshold for grid-connected solar PV systems to supply elec-tricity to end-users at the same price as grid-supplied elecelec-tricity or desulfu-rized coal electricity or even lower. Further raised question is how economi-cally competitive solar PV electricity is, compared with the traditional coal-fired power generation.

Compared with China, the energy transition in Sweden has been progres-sively proceeding, which enables it to build a low-carbon economy with the lowest share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply. Sweden's energy transition has been achieved through information and communication technol-ogies, policy frameworks, and market instruments that have been able to fun-damentally change society and the actors within it. Smart cities are therefore relevant as a context for articulating the market transformation with regard to revising the understanding of actor roles, resources and business logic that is relevant for understanding the smart city transition. An interesting part is to explore how smart city transformation changes energy market logic with the emerging of new actors in the Swedish electricity market.

(9)

In this thesis, economic feasibility, grid party capability, and investment values in the market of China are modeled, calculated, and analyzed. The ge-ographical and technical potential of solar PV applications is explored in Swe-den. Also, based on a Service-Dominant logic perspective, the new players and their roles in the transformation of smart cities are explored, using the Swedish electricity market as an example. The results of the grid parity anal-ysis show that distributed solar PV projects have reached a tipping point of cost-effectiveness, when solar PV can be guaranteed to be competitive with conventional power sources in the context of a subsidy-free in China. This also implies a gradual replacement of currently operating coal power plants. The investment return examination shows that profitability levels vary from city to city, taking into account local resource endowments and local economic conditions. By highlighting the flexibility issues associated with integrating a higher percentage of solar power, key performance indicators are presented to assess the performance of current individual technology components and com-bined system modules. This is achieved by quantifying the system perfor-mance in four different categories, i.e. technical, economic, environmental, and social/policy. Zooming out to the macro level, it shows the theoretical explanation of how the Swedish electricity market is being changed by renew-able energies and the emergence of new actors.

(10)

Sammanfattning

Solenergi är ett av de bästa alternativen för att tillgodose framtida energi-behov på grund av dess fördelar när det gäller tillgänglighet, tillgänglig-het, effektivitet och kostnadseffektivitet jämfört med många andra ener-gikällor. Solceller (PV) har blivit väletablerade för att hantera både mins-kade utsläpp av växthusgaser och regional luftförorening. Som en av de viktigaste drivkrafterna för energiövergången behövs en djupgående för-ståelse för solindustrins egenskaper och ekonomi för att integreras med politiska ingripanden. Den snabba utvecklingen inom soltekniksektorn står fortfarande inför olika tekniska hinder, ekonomiska hinder och in-stitutionella hinder. De tekniska systeminnovationerna och deras använd-ning i samhället utvecklas tillsammans med engagemanget av flera aktö-rer mellan vetenskapssamhällen, användare, investerare, beslutsfattare och andra intressenter. Därför kallas ett holistiskt och tvärvetenskapligt tillvägagångssätt för att analysera komplexiteten och lösa problemen.

Denna doktorsavhandling tar ett samhällsvetenskapligt perspektiv i samband med tekniska lösningar. Under de senaste åren har det funnits en växande oro kring ökat oro kring solavgifter i Kina, inte bara som en stor producent utan också som en stor marknad för solceller. Framsteg inom teknik och sjunkande kostnader har lett till betydande minskningar av sol-bidragen från myndigheter. Kostnaden för solceller påverkas av många lokala faktorer, så det är en utmaning att veta om Kina har nått tröskeln för nätanslutna solcellssystem att leverera el till slutanvändare till samma pris som elnätet eller avsvavlat kol el eller ännu lägre. Ytterligare en upp-dragen fråga är hur ekonomiskt konkurrenskraftig solcellsenergi är jäm-fört med traditionell koleldad kraftproduktion.

Jämfört med Kina har energiövergången i Sverige successivt fortgått, vilket gör det möjligt att bygga en koldioxidsnål ekonomi med den lägsta andelen fossila bränslen i primärenergiförsörjningen. Sveriges energiö-vergång har uppnåtts genom informations- och kommunikationsteknik, policyramar och marknadsinstrument som har kunnat förändra samhället och aktörerna inom det. Smarta städer är därför relevanta som ett sam-manhang för att formulera marknadsomvandlingen när det gäller att revi-dera förståelsen för aktörsroller, resurser och affärslogik som är relevant för att förstå smartstadens övergång. En intressant del är att utforska hur smart stadsomvandling förändrar energimarknadslogiken med nya aktö-rer på den svenska elmarknaden.

Sammanfattning

Solenergi är ett av de bästa alternativen för att tillgodose framtida energi-behov på grund av dess fördelar när det gäller tillgänglighet, tillgänglig-het, effektivitet och kostnadseffektivitet jämfört med många andra ener-gikällor. Solceller (PV) har blivit väletablerade för att hantera både mins-kade utsläpp av växthusgaser och regional luftförorening. Som en av de viktigaste drivkrafterna för energiövergången behövs en djupgående för-ståelse för solindustrins egenskaper och ekonomi för att integreras med politiska ingripanden. Den snabba utvecklingen inom soltekniksektorn står fortfarande inför olika tekniska hinder, ekonomiska hinder och in-stitutionella hinder. De tekniska systeminnovationerna och deras använd-ning i samhället utvecklas tillsammans med engagemanget av flera aktö-rer mellan vetenskapssamhällen, användare, investerare, beslutsfattare och andra intressenter. Därför kallas ett holistiskt och tvärvetenskapligt tillvägagångssätt för att analysera komplexiteten och lösa problemen.

Denna doktorsavhandling tar ett samhällsvetenskapligt perspektiv i samband med tekniska lösningar. Under de senaste åren har det funnits en växande oro kring ökat oro kring solavgifter i Kina, inte bara som en stor producent utan också som en stor marknad för solceller. Framsteg inom teknik och sjunkande kostnader har lett till betydande minskningar av sol-bidragen från myndigheter. Kostnaden för solceller påverkas av många lokala faktorer, så det är en utmaning att veta om Kina har nått tröskeln för nätanslutna solcellssystem att leverera el till slutanvändare till samma pris som elnätet eller avsvavlat kol el eller ännu lägre. Ytterligare en upp-dragen fråga är hur ekonomiskt konkurrenskraftig solcellsenergi är jäm-fört med traditionell koleldad kraftproduktion.

Jämfört med Kina har energiövergången i Sverige successivt fortgått, vilket gör det möjligt att bygga en koldioxidsnål ekonomi med den lägsta andelen fossila bränslen i primärenergiförsörjningen. Sveriges energiö-vergång har uppnåtts genom informations- och kommunikationsteknik, policyramar och marknadsinstrument som har kunnat förändra samhället och aktörerna inom det. Smarta städer är därför relevanta som ett sam-manhang för att formulera marknadsomvandlingen när det gäller att revi-dera förståelsen för aktörsroller, resurser och affärslogik som är relevant för att förstå smartstadens övergång. En intressant del är att utforska hur smart stadsomvandling förändrar energimarknadslogiken med nya aktö-rer på den svenska elmarknaden.

(11)

I denna avhandling modelleras, beräknas och analyseras ekonomisk genomförbarhet, kapacitet för rutnät och investeringsvärden på Kinas marknad. Den geografiska och tekniska potentialen för solcelleanlägg-ningar undersöks i Sverige. Baserat på ett Service-Dominant logikper-spektiv utforskas också de nya aktörerna och deras roller i omvandlingen av smarta städer med den svenska elmarknaden som ett exempel. Resul-taten av nätparitetsanalysen visar att distribuerade solcellsprojekt har nått en brytpunkt för kostnadseffektivitet när solceller kan garanteras vara konkurrenskraftiga med konventionella kraftkällor i samband med fria subventioner Kina. Detta innebär också en gradvis ersättning av nuva-rande kolkraftverk. Investeringens avkastningsundersökning visar att lön-samhetsnivåerna varierar från stad till stad med hänsyn till lokala resurser och lokala ekonomiska förhållanden. Genom att lyfta fram de flexibili-tetsproblem som är förknippade med att integrera en högre andel solkraft presenteras viktiga prestandaindikatorer för att bedöma prestandan hos nuvarande enskilda teknikkomponenter och kombinerade systemmodu-ler. Detta uppnås genom att kvantifiera systemets prestanda i fyra olika kategorier, dvs. teknisk, ekonomisk, miljömässig och social/politik. Ge-nom att zooma ut till makronivå visar det den teoretiska förklaringen till hur den svenska elmarknaden förändras genom förnybar energi och fram-växten av nya aktörer.

(12)

List of Papers

This thesis is based on the following papers, which are referred to in the text by their Roman numerals.

I Yan J, Yang Y*, Campana PE, He J. City-level analysis of sub-sidy-free solar photovoltaic electricity price, profits and grid par-ity in China. Nature Energy. 2019 Aug;4(8):709-17.

II Yang Y*, Campana PE, Yan J. Potential of unsubsidized

distrib-uted solar PV to replace coal-fired power plants, and profits clas-sification in Chinese cities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy

Reviews. 2020 Oct 1;131:109967.

III Ekman P, Röndell J, Yang Y. Exploring smart cities and market transformations from a Service-Dominant logic perspective.

Sus-tainable Cities and Society. 2019 Jul 25:101731.

IV Yang Y*, Jurasz J, Li H, Syrri A, Yan J. Key performance

indi-cators on flexibility of a multi-energy system. Applied Energy

Symposium: Low carbon cities and urban energy systems (CUE).

2019 Oct, Xiamen University, Fujian, China.

V Yang Y*, Campana PE, Stridh B, Yan J. Potential analysis of

roof-mounted solar photovoltaics in Sweden. Applied Energy. 2020 Dec 1;279:115786.

List of papers not included in this thesis

VI Yang Y, Zhang Y, Campana PE, Yan J. Peak-shaving and profit-sharing model by Aggregators in residential buildings with PV: a case study in Eskilstuna, Sweden. Energy Procedia. 2017 Dec 1;142:3182-93.

VII Zhang Y, Campana PE, Yang Y, Stridh B, Lundblad A, Yan J. Energy flexibility from the consumer: Integrating local electric-ity and heat supplies in a building. Applied Energy. 2018 Aug 1;223:430-42.

VIII Zhang Y, Campana PE, Yang Y, Lundblad A, Yan J. Energy flexibility through the integrated energy supply system in build-ings: a case study in Sweden. Energy Procedia. 2018 Jul 1;145:564-9.

List of Papers

This thesis is based on the following papers, which are referred to in the text by their Roman numerals.

I Yan J, Yang Y*, Campana PE, He J. City-level analysis of sub-sidy-free solar photovoltaic electricity price, profits and grid par-ity in China. Nature Energy. 2019 Aug;4(8):709-17.

II Yang Y*, Campana PE, Yan J. Potential of unsubsidized

distrib-uted solar PV to replace coal-fired power plants, and profits clas-sification in Chinese cities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy

Reviews. 2020 Oct 1;131:109967.

III Ekman P, Röndell J, Yang Y. Exploring smart cities and market transformations from a Service-Dominant logic perspective.

Sus-tainable Cities and Society. 2019 Jul 25:101731.

IV Yang Y*, Jurasz J, Li H, Syrri A, Yan J. Key performance

indi-cators on flexibility of a multi-energy system. Applied Energy

Symposium: Low carbon cities and urban energy systems (CUE).

2019 Oct, Xiamen University, Fujian, China.

V Yang Y*, Campana PE, Stridh B, Yan J. Potential analysis of

roof-mounted solar photovoltaics in Sweden. Applied Energy. 2020 Dec 1;279:115786.

List of papers not included in this thesis

VI Yang Y, Zhang Y, Campana PE, Yan J. Peak-shaving and profit-sharing model by Aggregators in residential buildings with PV: a case study in Eskilstuna, Sweden. Energy Procedia. 2017 Dec 1;142:3182-93.

VII Zhang Y, Campana PE, Yang Y, Stridh B, Lundblad A, Yan J. Energy flexibility from the consumer: Integrating local electric-ity and heat supplies in a building. Applied Energy. 2018 Aug 1;223:430-42.

VIII Zhang Y, Campana PE, Yang Y, Lundblad A, Yan J. Energy flexibility through the integrated energy supply system in build-ings: a case study in Sweden. Energy Procedia. 2018 Jul 1;145:564-9.

(13)

IX Yang Y, Yan J. Potential roof area for photovoltaics in a Swedish municipality. Applied Energy Symposium: MIT A+B, 2019 May, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA. X Syrri ALA, Bindner H, Li H, Jurasz J, Yan J, Yang Y. KPIs and

assessment procedure. European Union’s Horizon 2020 research

and innovation programme under grant agreement No 774309.

Ref. Ares(2019)3992146 - 24/06/2019.

IX Yang Y, Yan J. Potential roof area for photovoltaics in a Swedish municipality. Applied Energy Symposium: MIT A+B, 2019 May, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA. X Syrri ALA, Bindner H, Li H, Jurasz J, Yan J, Yang Y. KPIs and

assessment procedure. European Union’s Horizon 2020 research

and innovation programme under grant agreement No 774309.

(14)

List of Figures

Figure 1. Schematic diagram showing the relationship between the research

topics and the papers. ... 6

Figure 2. Historical policies and installed capacity of China's solar PV industry. ... 10

Figure 3. The narrative and process of S-D logic. ... 19

Figure 4. Categorization of clustering algorithms. ... 28

Figure 5. K-means clustering algorithm procedure in Paper II. ... 29

Figure 6. Summary of KPI categories, stakeholders and their roles. ... 31

Figure 7. Schematic diagram of the required distance between rows of solar panels in scenario A. ... 35

Figure 8. East-West orientation configuration with a low tilt angle in scenario C. ... 36

Figure 9. Grid Parity Indices for distributed PV projects in 344 cities without subsidies. ... 38

Figure 10. Economic feasibility and profitability of solar PV in 344 cities without subsidies. ... 39

Figure 11. Current running coal-fired power plants cost-risk levels and city number percent in China and the US. ... 40

Figure 12. The four cost-risk levels of current coal-fired power plants and their corresponding cities in China. ... 41

Figure 13. Four city clusters of distributed solar PV investment-profits. ... 42

Figure 14. A simpliﬁed illustration of the Swedish energy system’s traditional linear value chain market logic. ... 45

Figure 15. A future smart and dynamic networked market logic. ... 47

Figure 16. The percent of electricity losses using different row distances and tilt angles due to mutual shading. ... 51

Figure 17. The potential area for roof-mounted solar PV systems (a), and the potential installed capacity on pitched roofs and flat roofs with three scenarios (b-d). ... 53

Figure 18. Different self-consumption rates of 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% impact economic performances. ... 59

Figure 19. The historical direct subsidy percent and the budgets for solar industry. ... 60

List of Figures

Figure 1. Schematic diagram showing the relationship between the research topics and the papers. ... 6