Tracing Bolivia's Swing of the
Pendulum
Tracing the process of popular resistance in Bolivia.
Author: Emil Wenlöf
Abstract:
Policy regime shift through popular societal resistance in developing countries, advocating a state-regulated economic model, has been a frequent occurrence in the 21st century, during a period where neoliberalism has dominated the world market. Scholars have brought up the framework of double movement to explain these social, economic, and political changes from free-market regimes to state-controlled regimes, claiming that it is a societal reaction to the commodification of land, labor, and money. This research poses the question of how political change can be interpreted through the lens of the concept of double movement even though a government can show positive social and economic development records, where a left-wing state-regulated market has ruled the economy. Bolivia underwent political turmoil in 2019, where the former president Evo Morales, who had brought high socioeconomic development through a state-regulated economy, was ousted by a nationwide protest. An interim conservative government took office, imposing a harsh neoliberal agenda with authoritarian features, handing over the presidency to Morales’ former party only a year later, as the party won the election. Looking at the case of Bolivia through the lens of the double movement, this research found that commodification of land, labor, and money can explain popular societal resistance in Bolivia during Morales's presidency. However, the case also proved that commodification was not the only, and potentially not even the main, reason for the overthrow of Morales. Political motives and actions, clientelism, social cleavages, respect for democratic principles, and more theoretical perspectives need to be considered to comprehend regime change by popular resistance further.
Key words: Double Movement, Bolivia, Evo Morales, Social Mobilization, Popular
Table of Content:
1. Introduction ... 5
1.1 Research Problem and Relevance ... 7
1.2 Research Objective and Research Question ... 8
1.3 Analytical Framework ... 8
1.4 Methodology ... 9
1.5 Structure ... 9
2. Literature Review ... 10
3. Analytical Framework ... 13
3.1. The Double Movement ... 16
3.2 Swings of the Pendulum ... 17
3.3. Use of framework ... 18
4. Methodological Framework ... 19
4.1. Detailed Narrative Process Tracing ... 19
4.2 Case Study ... 20
4.3 Abductive Approach ... 21
4.4 Sources ... 21
4.5 Limitations and Delimitations ... 22
5. Findings ... 23
5.1. Background ... 23
5.1.1. The Previous Swing of the pendulum 1980-2005 ... 24
5.2. Indigenous presidency, autonomy movement, and a new constitution 2006-2009. ... 26
5.2.1. The beginning of the end of Evo Morales, 2010-2014 ... 29
5.2.2. Capitalistic creed, commodity decline and referendum 2015 – 2018 ... 34
5.2.3. The Political Turmoil of 2019 and the ousting of Evo Morales ... 37
5.3 Return of the conservative elite and the return of MAS 2019-2020 ... 39
6. Analysis ... 45
6.1. Setting the stage for a Double Movement 1980-2005 ... 45
6.2. Tracing the pendulum 2006-2019 ... 46
6.4 Electoral aftermath and 2020 elections: Was there a swing of the pendulum? ... 51
7. Conclusion ... 54
List of Abbreviations
CA – Constitutional Assembly
CIDOB – Confederation of Indigenous People of Bolivia COB – Bolivia’s Workers Confederation
CONAMAQ - National Council of Ayllus and Markas of Qullasuyu CONISUR - Indigenous Council of the South
CSUTCB - The Unified Syndical Confederation of Rural Workers of Bolivia
HRW – Human Rights Watch
IACHR - Inter-American Commission on Human Rights ICC – International Criminal Court
MAS – Movement Towards Socialism NDP – The New Development Plan OAS - Organisation of American States
TIPNIS - Isiboro Sécure National Park and Indigenous Territory
TSE - Supreme Electoral Tribunal WB – The World Bank Group
List of Figures
1. Introduction
Neoliberalism has dominated the global economic framework since the fall of the Soviet Union in the 90s. The globalization that unfolded after the end of the Cold War spread across the globe with the ideology of a free self-regulated market that integrated the international economic system into many countries worldwide. The widening of inequalities, unemployment, state debts, paired with lower wages and degrading working conditions due to the liberalistic commodification of labor and land, often caused a strong public distrust in countries affected by these unregulated market reforms. These consequences laid the way for social mobilization and protests, which gathered people from different social sectors to demand policy change to bring back the economy under social control once again, which often signified a change toward a more state-controlled policy structure (Levien & Paret, 2012; Goodwin, 2018; Silva, 2012). Latin America was one of the regions that experienced this pattern, sparking significant social mobilization against decades of neoliberal market reforms, which later paved the way for a socialist wave of governments in the early 2000s, such as Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Bolivia (Cleary, 2006; Silva, 2012).
The double movement is often applied to understand anti-neoliberal countermovements that protect society, but how can the double movement be applied as a lens through which to understand the emergence of popular resistance against policy regimes which have protected society and brought a high socioeconomic and national economic development, as occurred in Bolivia in 2019?
As described above, Bolivia was one of the Latin American countries that experienced a strong policy swing towards a state-regulated market in 2006 as Evo Morales from the indigenous and social movements took office after a two-decades-long political struggle against a neoliberal market regime which imposed a high toll of social
grievances (Stewart, 2010; Silva, 2012). Bolivia became recognized as one of the most successful socialistic examples in Latin America, creating high socioeconomic
development, continuously raising the national GDP, and strengthened the indigenous and marginalized population, even after the global financial crisis of 2008 (Wolff, 2019; and 2020). In 2019, Evo Morales, who had led the country for fourteen years, was ousted from the government after seeking an illegal fourth term in office, and opposition groups claimed that the national election was fraudulent, sparking
1.1 Research Problem and Relevance
How is it possible to understand the shift of public opinion against a government that brought a high socioeconomic development, been renowned worldwide for their political-economic model, which have focused on the marginalized, which once
constituted the majority of the population? Why did society later come to acknowledge a right-wing- conservative interim government with a high authoritarian character and features, imposing social suffrage, and how the same party that was ousted became re-elected one year later (Wolff, 2020; Lehoucq, 2020; HRW, 2020)?
1.2 Research Objective and Research Question
This research aims to explain why political policy regime shifts occur in cases where a positive socioeconomic development has been experienced in a left-wing state-led policy regime. In order to meet the aim of this research, a process-tracing approach will be conducted to analyse domestic economic and development policies, and the popular resistance to these developments will be conducted. This approach is used to
understand how popular resistance was formed over time.
The research questions below will seek to provide answers to the objective:
• Why was Morales ousted from power in 2019 and his party re-elected only a year later?
• What specific role did the commodification of land, labor, and money play in the political formation, societal resistance, and regime change in Bolivia?
1.3 Analytical Framework
As described in the introduction, the Double Movement will be the analytical
framework to seek to understand Morales' ousting and MAS re-election one year later. Applying the Double Movement as a lens to further understand why the social
1.4 Methodology
This research will constitute a qualitative desk study, adopting an abductive approach. A detailed narrative process-tracing will be implemented to analyse events that seek to explain how an outcome came about. In this case, Morales ousting and the re-election of MAS, which provides an explanatory force to understand specific outcomes in a specific case, proved essential in this research. The findings collected empirical data on Bolivia through primarily earlier research on the subject and reports from reputable sources and recent news reports.
1.5
Structure
This thesis consists of seven chapters. After introducing the thesis in chapter 1, the literature review in chapter 2 will further present the research debate on the given topic and research the current academic debate where previous research is reviewed.
2. Literature Review
The anti-neoliberal political struggle between 1980 and 2005 in Bolivia is frequently taken into consideration by scholars to understand political and economic policy changes in Bolivia due to their high significance in the Bolivian society as the movement leading the struggle brought Evo Morales to power (McNelly, 2020a; McNelly, 2020b; Naqvi, 2019; Silva, 2013; Stewart, 2010; Farthing, 2019; Postero, 2010; Hirsch, 2019). The research shows how social movements have possessed a vital role in modern Bolivian society due to their historical significance of democratic
struggles, societal resistance against oppressions, organizing capabilities, and revolutionary capacity (McKay, 2017; Farthing, 2019; McNelly, 2020b). Since the ubiquitous movement's presence has influenced decision-making and policy
implementation as the political party of Evo Morales, Movement towards Socialism (MAS), emerged as a political tool by a pact of the social movements leading the struggle, which came to be known as the Unity Pact (McNelly, 2020a; Farthing, 2019a; Silva, 2013).
more neoliberal economic approach, bringing benefits for many private investors and transnational companies to increase state revenues that could finance the cash transfer programs (Wolff, 2019; Farthing, 2019; Brown, 2020; Webber, 2017; McKay, 2017). Fernando Mayorga (2020) provides a detailed and elusive description of Evo Morales's type of governance and leadership, describing Morales as a charismatic leader of a political strongman, a caudillo, and a man of the people due to his humble background as a peasant.
There exists extensive research on state- social movement interactions during Morales presidency (McNelly, 2020b; Farthing, 2019; Brown,2020; Silva 2017; Wolff, 2016; Wolff, 2019; Postero, 2010), and the common denominator, relevant for this research, is the focus on how the social movements influence steadily diminished under Morales presidency after 2010. Eduardo Silva (2017) describes how the organizations that fully supported MAS policies received substantial benefits in decision-making instances in exchange for their support, causing a clientelist relation with the social base leaders and the MAS party. Moreover, Angus McNelly’s (2019) research on Bolivian labor unions shows how unions lost their previous influential role in society because clientelist approaches limited unionizing capabilities. Linda Farthing (2019) conceptualizes these claims, showing how the MAS, which rejected the societal changes they once
advocated, destabilized the social movements and brought high consequences for the people regarding insecurity and limitation on indigenous rights claims.
Researches on the Morales overthrow in 2019 focuses on Morales' unconstitutional behaviour as a reason for his ousting and that he had betrayed the social movements and labor unions. These discussions entail the alleged claims of a coup, the anti-indigenous motives from oppositional groups, Añez going beyond her limits of a caretaker government, and the oppression against Pro-MAS supporters during her presidency (Lehoucq, 2020; Wolff, 2020; Schneider, 2020; Molina, 2020).
policies and the societal resistance against these opens up a probability that an anti-neoliberal struggle took form once more, as many social movements did not go out to protect the government of Morales but protected the MAS in the aftermath of Morales’ ousting (Wolff, 2020. Schneider, 2020; Lehoucq, 2020; Mayorga, 2020: 141-155). Eduardo Silva (2012) provides an analysis from a Latin American perspective on how mass mobilization and social-political struggles in Bolivia Pre-Morales are understood through the double movement's lense with the commodification of land, labor, and money as organizing principles. He verifies that the commodification creates a feasible setting to understand how organization through social mass mobilization takes a horizontal form between class actors with different consensus and motives for political mobilization, which creates a regime shift. This provides evidence that such a shift could further occur in the Bolivian setting as the social bases and society still possess a strong potent force.
3. Analytical Framework
Polanyi’s The Great Transformation (1944) central argument is that the self-regulated market provided a stark utopia, whereas the commodification of human life and nature was doomed to fail and proved to be a stark menace to social relations. Society would inevitably respond to this threat through social mobilization, demanding systemic change (Polanyi, 1944: 3-4). With his own words, Polanyi elaborates that the self-regulated market would eventually: "… have physically destroyed man and transformed his surroundings into a wilderness" (Polanyi, 1944: 3).
One of the most frequently used arguments and concepts used from The Great
Transformation was the double movement, which has become a strong foundation to
understand social resistance against neoliberalism (Block, 2008; Silva, 2012; Stewart, 2010). The double movement analyses the consequences and reactions on which laissez-faire liberalism inflicts society and how the society responds to this threat. Polanyi argued that the utopian vision of liberalism of an international self-regulated market is a destructive, unsustainable vision of development and will eventually break, which will cause a high negative consequence to the population, which will ultimately spark a countermovement against these grievances (Dale, 2012). The ground concept of Polanyi's argument is that the commodification of labor and land, which neoliberal capitalism imposes, driven by an insatiable thirst for profits, is impossible to be genuinely implemented and will eventually force the society to respond to these grievances to protect itself (Goodwin, 2018; Polanyi, 1944: 3).
to understand why laissez-faire gain a foothold in society (Goodwin, 2018; Stewart, 2010; Silva, 2012; Silver et al. 2003; Block, 2008).
Karl Polanyi's (1944) well-known work, The Great Transformation, provides an insightful critique of the emergence of self-regulated markets. Written during World War II, the book describes how the nineteenth century's civilization collapsed, focusing on the political and economic causes of why the world ended up in the chaotic time of wars, financial crises, and disrupted power relations. Polanyi (1944) argues that the causes of these destructive events were the hegemonic position the self-regulated market imposed in the global society. As the self-regulated market became the
dominant economic system worldwide, the state's power structures and balances rested on the international financial institutions' foundation, namely the gold standard, which had emerged during the 1900th century. This financial institution later became the economic and political link between the states and developed as a peace mechanism to maintain order and stability. As a war between the great powers would endanger the continuous flow of profits and goods, trade became a tool for peace, and the gold standard was essential to maintain this flow. As the international financial system took hold of the world during the 1900th century, commodity prices took a firm grip on laborers' economic life across the globe, as their economic life and activities now rested within the market economy. Commodity prices that regulated the market now regulated society's economic activity (Polanyi, 1944: 10-19). This development became volatile as the commodification of human activities and nature signified that society's substance itself became integrated within the market economy and subordinate to the market laws (Polanyi, 1944: 71).
A market economy, or a self-regulated market, is a system where the market is
source of economic activities. Individuals and society regulated the market through informal and formal regulations, and the economy became a result of human
interactions. The economy rested upon the social relationships the humans possessed, where the sole intention was to maintain social standing, assets, and claims. Thus, the economy was solely sustained through noneconomic motives and instead focused upon the social relations between humans or societies (Polanyi, 1944: 43, 46, 54-55). This phase has been recognized as a state-regulated market, whereas the economy was integrated and subordinate to society (Goodwin, 2018).
As the self-regulated market or market economy emerged following the industrial revolution, these social relationships disentangled as the market pattern idea that truck, barter, and exchange could create their own institution, highly disrupted the phase of society’s control of the economy. The social relations became embedded within the economic system rather than the financial system was embedded in social relations (Polanyi, 1944: 57). As the self-regulated market solely functions upon commodity prices, the economic institution needs society to be subordinate to the demands of the market; hence, the market needs to fully control social life. Moreover, market control demands that industrial activities become integrated within the market, whereas the labor, land, and money that had formerly been separate from any economic institutions are now integrated into the market as commodities. The commodification of labor, land, and market are highly troublesome as these elements are solely a fiction of commodities and are not produced or perceived as subjective goods. Labor is merely a human activity; the land is the conception of nature, and money is merely a token. Humans did not create these commodities due to production or as goods, and the concept of commodification remains fictitious. The price of land transforms into rent, which is the price to use the land. Labor transform into wages, which is the price for the usage of human activities. Money transforms into interest as the price to use a
transformation phase occurs as social relations entangles into the market economy, where the market breaks free from the social relations onto which the economic activity has historically been subordinate (Goodwin, 2018).
3.1. The Double Movement
The double movement describes a change of ideas and endeavours inside society to protect itself from the destruction to which the self-regulated market system imposes on society. Polanyi describes the double movement as:
“ .. the action of two organizing principles in society, each of them setting itself specific institutional aims, having the support of definite social forces and using it owns distinctive methods.” (Polanyi, 1944: 132).
The double movement explains the organizing principles within a market society as twofold. One is the promoters of economic liberalism, mainly consisting of the support from the trading classes to reap benefits through the utopian vision of the self-regulated market. The second movement, the advocators for social protection, often entails working and landed classes that find allegiance from people directly affected by the perils of the neoliberal market and support interventionism instruments that can protect society from these perils (Polanyi, 1944: 132). As the market expands further supported by the movement of laissez-faire, it will eventually reach a point where the movement of social protection will create a countermovement that will hinder the expansion of the market for total dominance to save the fabric of society itself, which often take either a socialistic or fascistic notion of policies. The double movement signifies how both these opposing forces co-exist and are a constant process in the market society (Polanyi, 1944:130-134). Compared to earlier Marxist intellectuals, Polanyi claimed that by focusing merely on class structures, it would be impossible to understand any longer social process over time due to the limited scope class interest possesses (Polanyi, 1944: 152; Block, 2008). Hence Polanyi adopted society as the agent of change as the many narrow and intricate interests composed by individual actors or groups can not solely be understood under a conceptualization of how the
3.2 Swings of the Pendulum
Polanyi (1944: 3-4) define that either of these double movements, which possess control of society, will inevitably endanger the society itself, creating a movement by groups within the society that favours the opposite force rather than the one in power. As the movement that supports the opposite force gain substantial support from the society, caused by either swing's consequences, it will eventually change the policy regime, either through elections or revolutions. These changes Polanyi recognized as ‘Swings of the Pendulum’(Polanyi, 1944: 267) as the opposing movement will gain momentum and push the pendulum to the opposite side of the political and economic spectra, the side to which the opposing movement advocate (Polanyi, 1944: 274; Stewart, 2009; Stewart, 2010; Dale, 2012).
As the pendulum swings towards laissez-faire, ideas and perspectives within society change, where the laissez-faire groups advocate for an unregulated market as the interventionist approach impacts entrepreneurialism and efficiency within the different economic sectors (Stewart, 2010; Block, 2008). As these ideas spread in the society, the market will free itself from society, which will bear high consequences, as the
commodification of land, labor, and money that the laissez-faire creates will bring a high toll on social life. This is what Polanyi recognized as the liberal utopia, as the liberal system depends upon the fictitious commodities. The countermovement is merely a reaction or a demonstrating force against the market system, as the society advocates control over the economy and against the market system, supporting interventionist and state control to bring back the economy to social relations. The other swing from a state-regulated market to a free self-regulated market is a reaction where mainly the capitalistic and trade classes seek to promote the market to alleviate the barriers to which the interventionism and protective policies present. This is often strengthened with arguments aligning with Ricardo’s and Malthusian's
significant economic growth will appear (Block, 2008; Maerthens, 2008). This shift can be acknowledged in the 70s and 80s where the Keynesianism ideas were abolished, as it was perceived that the interventionist policies brought inefficiencies and inflation, and as the Keynesian policies failed to bring up the economic gains in the face of the economic crisis, the self-regulated market gained a foothold (Dale, 2012; Stewart, 2009). In order to truly achieve a swing of the pendulum, a political movement behind any of the two movements is required to impose the new set of policy changes indeed, as these changes are political (Block, 2008; Polanyi, 1944: 274; Stewart, 2009; Stewart, 2010; Dale, 2012; Maertens, 2008).
3.3. Use of framework
The Double Movement will be interpreted through an abductive lens. As the framework mainly stresses that the consequences that spark a countermovement are caused by the consequences of the commodification of labor, land, and money inflicts. The analytical framework will focus on the commodification of these concepts in Bolivia. Examples of consequences are increased rights for private companies, expanding exploitation of land, weakening labor rights, and insecure employment, all of which influence social struggles against these consequences. Reactions to these consequences are mainly expressed through demonstrations, strikes, marches, or other societal resistance forms. The in-depth case study analysis in Bolivia will organize findings from a process-tracing that explains major national development events and the societal reactions, such as social resistance against a policy or infrastructural projects, to detect the emergence of a countermovement. Through this analytical lens, the author wishes to find
4. Methodological Framework
This study will be a qualitative desk study that will adopt an abductive text analysis approach through a case study on Bolivia. A qualitative case study is feasible as this research seeks to comprehend the meaning of actions and understand values, beliefs, and behaviour, while the quantitative abductive approach is limited to realizing pure data and focusing on numerical values. The implemented method will guide this thesis to comprehend the events in Bolivia during and after Morales's presidency as a process and generate a conceptual understanding of a profoundly complex reality, which the quantitative approach might lack to succeed (Bryman, 2016: 401).
4.1. Detailed Narrative Process Tracing
A Detailed Narrative Process-Tracing method will analyse economic and societal resistance processes against Evo Morales’ presidency from 2006 to 2020 in Bolivia through a detailed narrative. Process tracing is beneficial as it allows the researcher to focus on one particular case and focus on a specific outcome. Through a detailed
narrative on chronological historical events, the process tracing will seek to understand
how an outcome was brought forward without necessarily testing a theory, but rather an atheoretical position to understand given events. This method provides a setting to explore the specific outcome of the case further. The causal mechanisms in history are provided through an extensive and detailed narrative description of historical
Evo Morales' ousting, risking their economic livelihoods and a new uncertain political future.
Nevertheless, process tracing provides further limits as if one or several processes in the chain of mechanisms remain unsolved; the conclusion provided remains flawed and uncompleted. Further critiques propose that process tracing can turn the blindside to other casual mechanisms, and if competing explanations are in place, this can further impact the conclusion as there are not usually one explanation to casual mechanisms but rather a vast complex set of causalities (George&Bennet, 2005: 222-223). Although this research strand from abductive reasoning, which possesses the possibility to
investigate the case through one specific perspective merely, it does not claim the results to be an ontological reality. This will be considered in the analysis and conclusion, as the author is aware that the framework implemented might explain a small part of a mere complex reality.
4.2 Case Study
A single case study will be implemented to detect how the double movement can be understood in one given context. Case studies are relevant, whereas the researcher seeks to further analyse or comprehend causal mechanisms to a given issue. Case studies are relevant to analyse theoretical concepts to which the researcher seeks to contextualize and bring forth casual complexities in one given context (George & Bennet, 2005: 19). This approach provides the instruments to venture into a given context to detect which actions, events, or conditions align with the casual mechanisms. As a process-tracing will guide this research, a within-case approach will provide a detailed and explanatory character.
protests and demonstrations occur regularly, imposing a great setting to analyse the double movement and popular resistance (McNelly, 2019a; Postero, 2010; Silva, 2012).
4.3 Abductive Approach
An abductive approach will be implemented as this approach can further understand how theory can explain a phenomenon and seek to find variables and relationships by analysing the context through a theoretical lens to understand one given case, without marking it as absolute or final (Dubois et al., 2002). This will be relevant to examine how the policy shift and societal resistance have taken place over a set period of time and what social reaction this has created (Silva, 2012; Stewart, 2010). By adopting an abductive approach, the analysis of the double movement is not solely constrained to understand the framework but rather how we can understand a case through a
theoretical lens that will imply that various external mechanisms can describe the line of events and why they took place (Dubois et al., 2002).
As a note, the author found it difficult to choose between a deductive or an abductive approach. Hence, the interest in understanding the case, rather than verifying a
hypothesis, brought the author to choose an abductive approach to further venture into the case, although the double movement concept possesses a strong focus in this
research that needs to be highlighted. Due to the broad scope that the double movement possesses, the author acknowledged beforehand that this theory might not provide a comprehensive explanation in this puzzling case, although it can provide a vital aspect of the societal resistance. Hence an abductive approach seemed more fit.
4.4 Sources
to relevant discussions. National surveys on voting results, national reports, documents, and analyses from reputable organizations, such as Human Rights Watch, will further comprehend the events not yet covered in the academic debate. With relevant news articles deriving from internationally and nationally respected news agencies, this research will seek to add the recent events to the academic debate. The academic material chosen through this study was collected as their approach entailed a historical position, understanding periods during Morales's presidency. It mainly entailed the social movements' experience to understand their motives and distrust towards Morales further.
4.5 Limitations and Delimitations
As the world has become mainly globalized and the concept of Polanyi’s double movement reinterpreted many times, this research will aim to solely focus on the national development to understand the internal domestic uprisings against Morales through land, labor, and money commodification. As the free-market principles still possess a strong influence in the international community today, the author recognizes the increased importance of the laissez-faire principles in the globalized world that needs to be taken into consideration by countries around the world (Stewart, 2009; Stewart, 2018; Maertens, 2008; Block, 2008).
5. Findings
5.1. Background
Bolivia is a landlocked country that lies in the heart of the South American continent. The country is home to more than 11 million people, and demographic numbers explain that most of the population perceive themselves as indigenous (WB, 2019; Postero, 2010). Before 2005, Bolivia was recognized as one of the poorest countries in the region. The country's primary production has historically, and is to this day, agricultural products and minerals, such as silver and tin, which has also been the primary forms of employment by the indigenous population since colonial times (Postero, 2010).
5.1.1. The Previous Swing of the pendulum 1980-2005
Bolivia saw an unprecedented expansion of neoliberal reforms in the 1980s, which brought high inequality, declining living standards, and poverty. The Structural Adjustment Programs, supported by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, caused a wave of privatization where state-owned mines closed, causing the relocation of mineworkers around Bolivia in search of employment as the
unemployment rose drastically. Relocations substantially impacted Bolivia’s Workers Confederation (COB), Bolivia’s most vital union, where miners constituted the main force of worker mobilization. COB had played a vital part in Bolivian history. In the agrarian revolution of 1952, COB co-governed with the sitting government and was a vital actor that brought forth the agrarian revolution. During the military dictatorship in the 60s-80s, COB became the force of unionized resistance and struggle but was highly suppressed. Following the suspension of state mines and the relocation of mineworkers, the COB lost their historical hegemony as the militant unionized miners who
constituted the militant wing of COB became dispersed around the country and found employment in different sectors.
The Chaparé region, the home of many coca growers, saw a drastic migration influx where formerly unionized workers found jobs in the coca cultivation sector as coca leaf demand was high. The coca leaf is an essential traditional significance for Andean indigenous groups in Bolivia. As the US policy on eradicating coca influenced US-Bolivian diplomatic relations, the US-Bolivian military adopted US-supported policies against coca cultivation. As formerly unionized mine workers joined the coca-growers union ranks, they brought a militant vision of social change that influenced the coca grower unions. The coca growers had several skirmishes with the military in the ’90s, opposing these policies, which expanded the tension between the neoliberal
workers and peasants, which posed a more potent force for change. These movements gained further influence and brought forth indigenous marches against extractive activities on indigenous territories, lack of indigenous rights, and widening inequalities. This new strong social movement called for increased participation and social inclusion for the marginalized indigenous communities and rural populations. Six significant social movements came together during this time, creating the Unity Pact in 2004, which brought forward the political tool recognized as the Movement Towards
5.2. Indigenous presidency, autonomy movement, and a new constitution
2006-2009.
The inauguration of Morales in 2006 presented a new era in Bolivian history. The first indigenous president in Bolivian history took office with a significant majority of the votes. After decades of social struggle by the indigenous social movements, a president from a humble background who had fought as a leader of the social movements
throughout the decades now became president. Morales' election was a new coincidence in Bolivia as the economic elite had dominated politics for centuries. Morales and MAS had mobilized a political party through the grassroots peasant organizations without the economic elite's interference, which was unique by Bolivian standards. With the notion that national economic sovereignty was the cure for
declining living standards and inequality, Morales put Bolivia in a new direction as developmental policymakers from MAS started to change the national institutions' foundations (Naqvi, 2019; Webber, 2008).
MAS voted forward a National Constituent Assembly (CA), which became a tool for the government to bring forward the changes the people demanded (McNelly, 2020b). This assembly was a form of participatory and direct democracy that would entitle a more participatory approach for the social movements but gave a firm control of decision-making to social organization, such as veto votes on unpopular policies (McNelly, 2020b).
The New Development Plan (NDP) gave rise to a decolonization strategy for the country and provided a more inclusive and interventionist system. The NDP shed new light on the concept of development, whereas the Andean indigenous cosmovision of
Vivir Bien (Good Living) and cultural diversity became frameworks to how
government did not stop the extractive businesses. Instead, natural resource extraction became a vital tool to push Bolivia out of poverty (Fontaine et al., 2018; McNelly, 2020b).
Nationalization of natural resources, gas, oil, and minerals put high restrictions on foreign companies operating within Bolivia. Morales's vision was that the distribution of revenues collected from extractive businesses should benefit the Bolivian people and not the international corporations (Fontaine et al., 2018). The oil and gas fields now brought an 82 % profit to the state revenues rather than the 18% profit rate during the previous presidential mandate (Brienen, 2016). The state became the main economic power, and the revenues financed the social programs and reforms as MAS advocated. Social programs, infrastructure development, and cash transfer programs directed to rural and poor areas resulted in a positive impact on poverty reduction in the country (McKay, 2017; Farthing, 2019). As the commodity boom flourished, the state revenues saw a substantial influx of funds, and Morales's pledge to keep Bolivian capital inside Bolivia was valid. During this period of 2006-2009, a robust governmental effort focused on implementing social programs, which prolonged during Morales's presidency that improved many Bolivians' livelihood as poverty dropped by half between 2006 and 2018 and inequality fell (McNelly, 2020a).
The new policies Morales implemented did not go unnoticed. The economic elite had benefited from the neoliberal policies for decades, denounced the Constitutional Assembly's formation, and sparked outrage in the Media Luna regions. The Media Luna refers to the lowland regions of Beni, Pando, Santa Cruz, and Tarija, where the majority of the extractive and agro-business activities resides and is the home for a majority of the economic elites. Question on land issues emerged as the land was seized by the central government and redistributed to landless indigenous peasants (Wolff, 2016; Webber, 2017). The Media Luna departments called for regional autonomy and defied these new policies, terrified to lose the land areas that many capitalistic actors possessed. This land was essential to control by the Media Luna due to the
autonomy movement by the regional governmental department, business associations, and the civic committee: Pro- Santa Cruz. This movement sought to defend the
independence and autonomy of the Media Luna regions from the new president, his new political project, and the social movements (Wolff, 2016).
Clashes between the autonomy movement and MAS supporters frequently occurred between 2006 to 2008. The Media Luna regions continued to draw support to achieve regional autonomy. In 2008 clashes became highly volatile, and various strikes and blockades were set up by the autonomous movement, blocking pipelines and overtook various institutions in cities around the Media Luna. The uprising reached a tipping point in 2008 when the prefect of Pando, Leopoldo Fernandez, coordinated an attack from autonomous supporters and right-wing radicals on peasant activists in the area of Porvenir which left around twenty peasant activists dead. During this massacre, the autonomous movement and other opposition groups sought to implement a civic coup, which failed (Webber, 2014). The massacre of Porvenir triggered MAS to mobilize the social movements to defend the government and denounce the atrocities to stabilize the country. The social movements pressured the opposition in parliament to accept to mediate with the government to accept cooperation between the economic elite and the government. Due to the opposition's disorganization and weakness during 2008, the opposition reconciled with MAS and started to negotiate regarding the constitutional changes onto which MAS proposed (McNelly, 2020b; McKay, 2017; Webber, 2014). 2009 was an important year for the MAS. With the support of a national referendum, the former republican constitution was replaced with a plurinational one that now permitted the indigenous population to have direct representation in all levels of governments, and representation was enabled to take form according to indigenous customary practices. Morales won the election in December with 64% of the votes and controlled a two-thirds majority in parliament (McNelly, 2020b).
decades, maintaining a semi-feudal structure in significant parts of the rural areas. These actors had previously maintained their elitist hegemony unaffected through the agrarian revolution in 1952, the military dictatorships during the 60s until the 80s and the mass protests following the Structural Adjustments programs in the 80s and the 90s. This point in history signified a new phase in Bolivia as the ruling elite did not possess majority control over the government and sought further cooperation with MAS's government (Webber, 2014; Wolff, 2016; Farthing, 2019).
5.2.1. The beginning of the end of Evo Morales, 2010-2014
MAS consolidated their political and social position after the 2009 election in both chambers and the streets. MAS had a unique position to rule without any significant political or social interference. They controlled the parliament in a two-thirds majority. The social movement supported the elected officials and the economic elite, and the opposition was highly disorganized and split up within their ranks. The violent clashes during 2008 and 2009 had ebbed out, and the autonomous movement dispersed (Wolff, 2016). Rather than opposing the MAS leadership, business elites aligned themselves with the government as it was in their long-term interest to cooperate to secure future economic gains and activity. Morales saw cooperation as highly essential to secure economic influx when the commodity boom would inevitably decline and secure political stability when that happens (Naqvi, 2019). This period would have been a vital opportunity for Morales and MAS to implement the changes which the indigenous movements had advocated through decades of struggles. Instead, MAS further
2014; Naqvi, 2019). Morales gained a majority of votes in several departments in the Media Luna's heartland during the 2009 elections, which had previously voted against his presidency in 2005 (Webber, 2014).
As Morales strengthened relations with the economic elite in Santa Cruz, the social and indigenous movements and unions started to question his leadership. A strong power vacuum had emerged in many social organizations after the 2009 election as leadership within social organizations had now become a departure point to be incorporated in politics, leaving social organizations leaderless and disorganized (McNelly, 2020a; 2020b). The governments' stance on incorporating social movements to co-govern became fragile as Morales' economic measures and reluctance to respond to the
lowland indigenous territorial recognition and the demands of wage rises and pensions which the unions demanded (Silva, 2013). When Morales implemented what social movements recognized as the Gasolinazo in 2010, which removed gas and other fuel subsidies in the domestic market to attract foreign investments, intense and nationwide strikes and protests followed (McNelly, 2020b). These cuts became a hard blow for the poorest people as gas prices and other commodities now doubled. The social
movements were highly critical to this policy implementation and saw this measure as a blow directed to the vulnerable and marginalized communities and were solely in favor of the economic elite (Mayorga, 2020: 142-145; Krommes-Ravnsmed, 2019; Silva, 2013).
The most vital union of formalized workers in the country, COB, supported MAS, and their support was essential for its legitimacy. Unions have had a significant historical significance to exert political and economic change and struggle, as indigenous and labor was historically formalized through unions as political parties were mainly controlled by economic elites (McNelly, 2019a). During Morales's presidency, COB became a vital tool to maintain good relations with the labor unions due to their
labor force's interest, creating discontent within the union (Mayorga, 2020: 14; Postero, 2010; McNelly, 2019; Schneider, 2020). In 2010 this relationship took a drastic change following not only the Gasolinazo but a new reform that sought to limit the rights and financing of the labor unions where workers from affected sectors pushed COB into a strike, which was the first strike against Morales’ government (McNelly, 2020b). Several protests and strikes followed between 2010-2014, where the union cried out for higher wages in 2011 and against the neoliberal pension reforms implemented in 2010, a legacy from previous neoliberal governments. MAS valued the relationship with COB, whereas they agreed to several of their demands in 2013, involving them in several negotiations between the government and business representatives.
Nevertheless, COBs' influence in decision-making instances remained limited, and they once again aligned themselves to Morales' politics (Silva, 2017; Schneider, 2020; McNelly, 2020b).
As the social movements faced internal structural issues, the indigenous communities continued their struggle for land ownership as the agrarian reform, which Morales was to bring forth, was highly unequal. Reforms had been successful in some areas but mainly favored the agricultural companies and private landowners in the Media Luna, which territory possesses some of Bolivia's most fertile lands, making the social movements question the intentions of MAS’s agrarian reforms (Webber, 2017; Wolff, 2019).
The indigenous people of the lowland stood highly critical to this development and started to mobilize, and various marches and demonstrations opposed the development of the continuation of elitist hegemony. A march organized by the indigenous
inside the national bloc of indigenous movements regarding Morales's real ambition to entitle the indigenous their customary rights and control over their territory (Webber, 2017).
Further questions regarding the government’s intention to respect indigenous sovereignty and rights became more relevant inside the social movement as the government approved a controversial construction of a highway that would pierce through the Isiboro–Sécure Indigenous Territory and National Park (TIPINIS). This project mobilized a more comprehensive array of lowland and highland indigenous groups and federations, such as CIDOB and another member of the Unity Pact: CONAMAQ (National Council of Ayllus and Markas of Qullasuyu), also an
indigenous movement and a member of the Unity Pact. The protest mainly condemned the governments' ignorance towards lowland indigenous rights and the societal and environmental impact this project would cause. The protest demanded prior
consultation before any development projects on indigenous territory and that the government would support indigenous rights in the lowlands. For a long time, lowland indigenous groups had disregarded Morales' government to strengthen the indigenous majority (Aymara and Quechua), mainly residing in the highlands and excluding other indigenous groups. Environmentalists, urban NGOs, and autonomous supporters from the Pro – Santa Cruz Civic Committee, calling for autonomy, joined the struggle to bring forth their agendas rather than supporting the idea of indigenous autonomy and prior consultation (Webber, 2017; Hirsch, 2019).
The government's response became troublesome as the counterreaction and police repression turned volatile and violent, which raised attention in national and international media, a significant backlash for Morales. In October 2011, the
the region onto which Morales originated as the leader of the cocalero union and still possessed a firm control, to join the protests. The previous protective law became annulled thanks to the supporting protestors, and the plans for the construction of the highway opened up once more. This conflict became a vital departure point to understand how Morales lost legitimacy as this was the first significant division between the indigenous movements and the peasant unions of the Unity Pact, which raised awareness of the internal power disbalance within MAS. CONAMAQ and CIDOB later joined the Unity Pact in 2013 after representatives loyal to the MAS had taken control over the organization. However, the trust issues within the Unity Pact had a substantial impact on the government’s legitimacy, and the opposition to Morales grew (Mayorga, 2020: 150-162; Fontana, 2014; McKay, 2017; Webber, 2017; Hirsch, 2019; Silva, 2013).
MAS representatives acknowledged the emerging issues and advocated to move MAS towards a lesser dependency on extractive activities. The left-leaning candidates within MAS, still loyal to their ideologies, attempted to fight for a change within the party but without success. In 2015, several left-leaning ministers had resigned due to the
government's inability and aversion to moving away from the lucrative extractive sector as these revenues highly financed the political project of the MAS. Candidates with a more capitalistic feature gained more influence in the political chambers and further developmental and extractive projects (McNelly, 2019a; 2020a).
projects discriminating indigenous territories. Morales centralized power broke the previous dependency on the social movements and became more neoliberal. The next term would be problematic for Morales with decreased support as the dreaded
commodity decline was just around the corner (McNelly, 2020a; 2020b; McKay, 2017).
5.2.2. Capitalistic creed, commodity decline and referendum 2015 – 2018
MAS won the election in 2014 with 61% of the votes in a contested election as Morales had already sat for two executive turns. However, the new plurinational constitution claimed he only sat for one mandate and was entitled to another executive term, which further caused distrust against the MAS hegemony as this would be Morales’s third term. This distrust was further presented in 2015 in the local and departmental elections where several right-wing representatives were now elected into local offices, in most of the biggest cities where MAS previously possessed strong social support (Krommes-Ravnsmed, 2019; McNelly, 2019a; Mayorga, 2020: 211-212).
businesses negotiated on increasing agricultural production for export. Members from the Unity Pact and the agribusiness elite were present in negotiations to decide how this development would take form. The summit brought forward an expansion of
agricultural production and loosening the legislative framework against deforestation due to the increased need for agricultural land. Morales planned to expand the
agricultural sector aggressively, and the developmental extractive model excluded and ignored small-scale producers, indigenous communities, and the environmental impact these developmental policies would (McKay, 2017).
As MAS brought forward a set of policies providing further investment and expansion of extractive businesses, Morales faced more significant concerns as this was his last presidential mandate, and according to the constitution, he would not be able to run. Hence MAS arranged a referendum in 2016 to give Morales the possibility to run once more in the national elections. The constitution of the plurinational state declares that no candidate can run for more than two terms. Morales denounced this law and declared a national referendum to remove the prohibition for two presidential
mandates, providing Morales to run once more for office. The referendum on February 21st was lost, whereas the population rejected another presidential term for Morales (Mayorga, 2020:160-165; Wolff, 2020; Krommes-Ravnsmed, 2019). However, this was not the end of the regime of Evo Morales. In 2017 the constitution was
reinterpreted and claimed that to limit presidential terms would go against Morales human rights, discriminating his right to political participation, which made Morales and the MAS run over the constitutional laws they had implemented seven years earlier (Wolff, 2020).
policies, evoked further strikes against the government to support the textile workers who had lost their employment and against the neglect of their rights. COB underwent numerous strikes, which faced several clashes with the police to open the factory again without success (Carvalho, 2020; McNelly, 2019a; Schneider, 2020). The closing of ENATEX was a sign that the development policy the state relied upon was volatile due to the dependency on exploitative finances. Workers in sectors operating under state revenues became worried as the hydrocarbon dependency consequences started to make way into the laborers' lives (McNelly, 2020a). At this point, COBs legitimacy was highly weakened as ranks aligned towards MAS, and their decreased influence in national decision making had made COB merely a political tool for MAS, which resulted in increased informal employment and decreased rights for the working classes (McNelly, 2019a; Schneider, 2020; Carvalho, 2020). Leaders within the COB
acknowledge that the clientelist approaches to leaders within the COB restricted workers' possibility to mobilize, and MAS undermined the workers to unionize (McNelly, 2019a; Farthing, 2020).
the democratic incentive of MAS. Movements started to reemerge, such as the Pro-Santa Cruz Civic Committee and the political opposition organized themselves. MAS entered 2019 with some of the lowest public opinion results the party had received in its history in power, and the GDP had dropped by 4.4 percent between 2015 and 2018, breaking their previous annual growth rate of 5% (Wolff, 2019; Lehoucq, 2020; Schneider, 2020). Following the reinterpretation of the constitution in 2017, the previous historical, conservative forces brought up old political movements that
emerged with the banners to protect Bolivia's democracy. Through this momentum, the previous president Carlos Mesa took the lead and created the urban-based party Civic Community (Comunidad Ciudadana) in 2018 to respond to the annulment of the referendum result (Wolff, 2020; Lehoucq, 2020; Schneider, 2020). As Mesa gained increased support from the historical opposition, the election drew closer, and it looked like the hegemonic figure of Evo Morales faced a candidate that could contest his presidency.
5.2.3. The Political Turmoil of 2019 and the ousting of Evo Morales
The political opposition denounced the election result and claimed it was a fraudulent election where the TSE was compromised as the MAS hegemony had infiltrated TSE ranks. Popular uprisings spread across the urban cities in Bolivia and the Media Luna. The oppositional political groups, the urban middle class, university students, COB, indigenous organizations affected by developmental projects, and regional opposition groups emerged and demanded that Morales resigned (McNelly, 2019b; Lehoucq, 2020). Governmental offices were set ablaze in various towns, MAS officials became persecuted, and all cities around Bolivia experienced blockades and strikes that halted the cities' activities, except La Paz and El Alto (Wolff, 2020).
As these protests developed more intense each day, the Pro-Santa Cruz Civic
Committee rose from the ashes, and the organization leader, Luis Fernando Camacho, started to impose strong rhetoric against Morales. Camacho demanded his resignation and the end of the MAS hegemony, meanwhile as he revitalized the conservative forces of the Media Luna, which had laid dormant as the economic elite reaped benefits from the Morales government. TSE proclaimed Morales the winner of the election on October 25 with 47,08% of the votes, and Carlos Mesa was drawing close to 36,5 %, avoiding a second-round with 0,5%. As the uprisings intensified, Morales called for the Organisation of American States (OAS), which had previously denounced the result, to revise the votes to find any fraud evidence. OAS presented their result on November 10, where they claimed irregularities were detected, recommending new elections (Wolff, 2020; Lehoucq, 2020; Schneider, 2020).
groups with formerly supported Morales urged him to resign, such as COB and
mineworkers' unions (McNelly, 2019b; Wolff, 2020). Morales responded by mobilizing the social movements in La Paz and the coca unions of Chaparé in Cochabamba to confront the demonstrators and consolidate MAS hegemony. The mobilization led to several clashes of Pro-MAS demonstrators and oppositional forces, which escalated intensely during the first week of November. The development took a drastic turn as the police mutinied in Cochabamba on November 8, not willing to put up arms against Bolivians. Police in all departments took the same stance, withdrawing to their offices, and on November 10, all police forces around Bolivia now supported the opposition groups. As the police had now turned against Morales and MAS, so did the military, recommending Morales to resign to avoid further conflict and stabilize the country. Morales followed suit and resigned on November 10, and later that day, he embarked on a plane to Mexico, where he gained political asylum (Wolff, 2020; Lehoucq, 2020).
5.3 Return of the conservative elite and the return of MAS 2019-2020
new government to show their denouncement of the alleged coup (Lehoucq, 2020; Wolff, 2020; Segura, et al., 2020).
As a response, the new interim government pleaded to the military to pacify the country to secure law and order, as the police were overwhelmed by MAS supporters who denounced the mutiny and the alleged coup. Añez issued a decree that made the security forces and the military immune to the law, granting them free reigns to suppress the demonstrations (Farthing, 2020). The military responded to the plead and clashed with demonstrators around Bolivia, especially in El Alto and Cochabamba, where two massacres took place in Senkata (El Alto) and Sacaba (Cochabamba). November became one of the most violent months in more than a decade, as 36 people were killed in confrontations and more than 800 injured following state violence, according to reports from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) (Farthing, 2020; Wolff, 2020; Lehoucq, 2020). At the end of November,
representatives from the government, MAS, COB, the Unity Pact, and other international actors ratified agreement s to call for new elections to stabilize the
country, which all parties accepted (Wolff, 2020). The country slowly started to regain stability, but massive polarization emerged and presented itself, and the historical racist and discriminatory discourse had once again emerged (Farthing, 2020).
The presidency of Añez was a transitional one where she was solely to maintain power until elections, but instead, Añez altered the political stance and policies in Bolivia to a great extent. After taking office, Añez cut relations with Cuba and Venezuela, the once strong allies to Morales's government, and opened up relations to the US, which Morales had thrown out eleven years earlier for intervening in Bolivian affairs. Añez had also called for increased privatization of previously state-owned industries (Farthing, 2020; Wolff, 2020). A deconstruction of the developmental policies onto which MAS had implemented started following the privatizations. Añez did not act as a government caretaker but instead pushed toward more neoliberal and right-wing
In March 2020, the Covid-19 Pandemic struck Bolivia. Añez responded by imposing a quarantine that would last until the spread curbed. Social cash transfer bonds to help families and people in need emerged, but this bond did not reach out to the rural areas where the lack of necessary supplies was most critical, which brought high disapproval from the social movements and the ranks of the Añez administration. This measure became highly criticized as the social movements saw the bonds as a measure from Añez to gain electoral votes since she had declared that she would apply for the
presidency in January. Internal critics from conservative forces also emerged, declaring that it would be more beneficial to put these bonds in the medical facilities to prepare the country for the crisis (Bermúdez, 2020; Lehoucq, 2020).
Aside from the pandemic, Añez had brought forward a strict authoritarian rule against the people of Bolivia. As the pandemic spread, Añez postponed the election and maintained her authoritarian rule and the quarantine instead became a measure to control the people rather than curb the spread. Due to the spread, elections were postponed, which sparked suspicion from social movements who witnessed the postponement as undemocratic and a measure to maintain power to the conservative elites (Weiffen, 2020; Wolff, 2020). Since Añez took power, political persecution of MAS representatives had escalated, and a Human Rights Watch report (2020) provided evidence that there had been a wide array of political persecution of members and representatives of MAS during 2020 (Bermúdez, 2020; HRW, 2020).
Añez postponed the elections three times during 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. At the end of July, the last postponement created a strong mobilization against Añez as social movements through the Unity Pact and COB now called for their supporters to defend the democracy. Strikes and roadblocks emerged in La Paz and Cochabamba, where MAS had reignited their social base. In August, the roadblocks became a vital sign of the Bolivian people's distrust of Añez and her neoliberal policies and leadership (Sanjida, 2020). The distrust was not solely part of the postponements, but the
presidency (Molina, 2020). The roadblocks and strikes prolonged for two weeks until the government set up a final date for the elections that would now be held on the 18th of October. As the roadblocks became uplifted, Añez highly denounced the strikes and sought claims to the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate this matter, as MAS set up these roadblocks according to which caused the death of 30patients due to supply shortages. The ICC dismissed this claim, as the statement's political undertone was evident (Swart, 2020). In September, Añez brought forward her resignation to participate as a candidate in the October elections as she sought to reduce the chances of an oppositional split, and MAS would win the elections. The MAS won by a
Figure 1. Voting polls during 2020 of presidential candidates. Source: Bolivia Electoral (2020): https://www.boliviaelectoral.com/encuestas-2020/
pandemic, and the polarized campaign are fundamental causes to understand why the majority became inclined to MAS once more (Zilla, 2020).
The period between 2006-2019 in Bolivia became one of the most prosperous times in Bolivian history. Through democratic elections, the indigenous and marginalized people became incorporated within the government, and for the first time in five hundred years, indigenous people became recognized and, most of all, respected as indigenous. Hence as described above, Bolivia is now facing a more polarized setting than before in modern history as the traditional oppositional divisions are now
6. Analysis
In this section, the events and societal processes that led up to Morales' ousting are analysed to explore his ousting and the re-election of MAS. Stranding from the double movement, the commodification of land, labor, and money are analysed to follow the social processes that led up to the ousting. The policies and inclinations towards neoliberalism are essential to comprehend the underlying causes for Morales' ousting. The analysis would implement the double movement to extract evidence if a movement took place during the Morales presidency, which made him lose legitimacy and power. An attempt to deepen the understanding of how the consequences from the
commodification of land, labor, and money imposed strong distrust in Morales and if this approach can help understand why MAS lost power and became re-elected. The following section will analyse if a double movement can be detected during Morales's presidency and determine that if such a movement, if indeed detected, was a
countermovement or a laissez-faire movement and if this movement caused a swing of the pendulum.
6.1. Setting the stage for a Double Movement 1980-2005
streets to demand change. As the urban-middle class suffered from the perils onto which the market economy imposed, they became incorporated into the rural peripheral organizations. Polanyi described the countermovement as a spontaneous reaction, loosely organized and unbounded by social classes and undirected by opinion, but directed by the liberal consequences (Polanyi, 1944: 141). This organization can be acknowledged in the “Water War” in Cochabamba in 2000 when the urban middle class and the social movements took the streets to denounce the city's water supply's privatization. The consequences onto which the commodification of labor and land caused in this case can be recognized as increased unemployment, environmental destruction, bigger social cleavages, unequal distribution of state revenues, increased polarization, and inequality. By gaining an overview of the previous countermovement, the swing of the pendulum moves towards an interventionist and state-regulated form of rule. It is essential to understand the setting to trace if the pendulum's swing occurred during Morales's presidency as the movement demanded a state-regulated
developmental model, and a political struggle was behind the shift. Hence, the concept and emergence of a countermovement and a swing of the pendulum towards a state-regulated market can explain how Morales and MAS got to power.
6.2. Tracing the pendulum 2006-2019
and money during his first mandate by increasing wages, redistribution of land to landless peasants, nationalization of industries, and social protection programs in the forms of cash transfer programs for the vulnerable part of the population. Hence, policies favouring a state-regulated market were in place between 2006 to 2009. The autonomous movement in Media Luna opposing Morales, which sought to claim autonomy in 2008, cannot be explained as a countermovement. As Polanyi’s argument goes, either extreme of the pendulum will claim consequences to society and that society will revolt against either force in power. Nevertheless, the Media Luna events do not necessarily explain that the autonomous movement sought to free the market or protect itself from the market expansion. The resistance was rather a reaction to the power structure and due to the historical social and ethnic cleavages within Bolivia as Morales' government was a government promoting the indigenous people, which becomes evident in the racist motives of the Porvenir Massacre in 2008. Moreover, this uprising could be interpreted as a double movement since part of the uprising was a reaction to Morales' interventionist policies, drawing from Polanyi's idea that any system in place will create a societal reaction.
Nevertheless, Polanyi does not imply that the laissez-faire movement would struggle to free the market but mainly stress that the liberal utopian ideas would expand the
market. The autonomous movement, consisting of previous politicians, private business people, and private landowners, merely sought to prevent Morales' new government from implementing reformist policies. Hence, acknowledging a
countermovement due to grievances would be inaccurate, but rather as advocators of laissez-faire policies. The autonomous movement was merely a reaction from the business and former political elite to regain the power and influence after the 2005 election and the policies MAS imposed, securing their economic interests. Hence, it is viable to claim that land, labor, and money decommodification caused the autonomous movement's emergence. The double movement does entail strong motives for
land. However, it lacks to truly comprehend the dimension of the hierarchy of power structures and discriminating motives of rallying, such as anti-indigenous rhetoric. According to the findings, Morales's second mandate between 2010 to 2014 constitutes a countermovement where society protected itself from the laissez-faire consequences, where we can acknowledge that a pendular shift as MAS policies aligned towards neoliberalism. When Morales and MAS gained a dominant majority of the votes both on the national and department levels, significant changes occurred. The Gasolinazo, the TIPNIS conflict, and the COB strikes due to the rising wages and pension reforms show broad evidence of movements against laissez-faire policies. Morales inclining toward the economic elite followed Polanyi's pattern, which imposed a high
consequence for the society in terms of unemployment, loss of rights, and natural destruction.
By detecting the commodification of labor, the focus will shift to the reaction of COB due to their vital national significance. COB denounced many of Morales's policies to the point that the union broke the relationship with the state in 2010. What is essential to acknowledge in the commodification of labor is not solely the limits imposed on the unionized formalized workers such as miners and textile workers, but to acknowledge the high informal sector in Bolivia. The informal employment sector increased under Morales, and COB did not abstain from this development. The promises that national resources' nationalization would provide finances for employment sectors became merely a facade, as these revenues providing benefits for the transnational companies operating in these sectors merely benefited the private owners than the Bolivian
workers. Considering the dismissal of improved labor rights and conditions, clientelism towards COB, increased employment informality, increased benefits to the
transnational companies, and capital accumulation, it is possible to acknowledge that labor commodification occurred between 2006-2019, which sparked various
