UPTEC ES 20033
Examensarbete 30 hp Maj 2020
Scenarios for future power balance in bidding zone 3 in Sweden year 2040
Hevi Caliskan
Teknisk- naturvetenskaplig fakultet UTH-enheten
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Ångströmlaboratoriet Lägerhyddsvägen 1 Hus 4, Plan 0
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Box 536 751 21 Uppsala
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018 – 471 30 03
Telefax:
018 – 471 30 00
Hemsida:
http://www.teknat.uu.se/student
Abstract
Scenarios for future power balance in bidding zone 3 in Sweden year 2040
Hevi Caliskan
This is a master thesis performed on behalf of WSP, aiming to investigate scenarios for future energy balances in bidding zone 3 in Sweden during year 2040, based on different production alternatives and consumption scenarios.
This report aims to highlight the challenges of transitioning to a more electrified energy system where a greater proportion of renewable sources, mainly from hydro, wind, solar and bioenergy, are integrated into the energy system. Increasing the share of weather-dependent electricity production, such as solar- and wind power, set higher standard on the ability to maintain system balance and guaranteeing sufficient power when consumption is high. Higher consumption will be caused by increased electrification of different sectors, and
urbanization, which will be necessary in order to achieve climate goals.
Production from other power sources, import of electricity from other bidding zones, and flexibility will have to be considered when the demand for electricity cannot be met by solely the production that takes place in bidding zone 3. In this study, EXCEL is used to build a model that calculates future energy balances and presents the extent that future imports of electricity and flexibility, that will be needed to supply enough electricity to bidding zone 3 in the year 2040. With four different production alternatives and three consumption scenarios, 12 different cases of future energy balances are presented.
Tryckt av: Uppsala universitet, Uppsala ISSN: 1650-8300, UPTEC ES 20033 Examinator: Petra Jönsson
Ämnesgranskare: Karin Thomas Handledare: Claës af Burén
POPULÄRVETENSKAPLIG SAMMANFATTNING
När den årliga producerade elenergin inte kan möta efterfrågan uppstår det som kallas elenergibrist. Om den producerade elenergin istället vid ett givet tillfälle, exempelvis under en timme, inte kan möta efterfrågan uppstår det som kallas effektbrist. Sverige har som klimatmål att utsläppen av växthusgaser ska nå netto noll till år 2045, vilket innebär att en omställning av det befintliga energisystemet till ett mer elektrifierat kommer krävas för att uppnå målen. I elprisområde 3, som utgörs av större delen av södra Sverige och där dagens alla kärnkraftverk befinner sig, kommer självförsörjningen på elenergi och eleffekt möta stora utmaningar när kärnkraftverken tas ur drift och ersätts med väderberoende förnybara produktionskällor.
Kraftig utbyggnad av solkraft och vindkraft kommer vara nödvändigt för att möjliggöra omställningen till ett mer elektrifierat samhälle. Utmaningen med dessa intermittenta elproduktionskällor är att de producerar energi när väderförhållandena tillåter och styrs alltså inte av hur elbehovet ser ut under dagen och året. Det kommer därför vara av stor vikt att hitta nya tekniska lösningar som kan säkerställa försörjningen av eleffekt och elenergi, även när elanvändningen ökar och när elkonsumtionsmönstret förändras.
Överföring av el från närliggande elprisområden kommer vara en nödvändig lösning för att kunna säkerställa försörjningen av elenergi och eleffekt i elprisområde 3. Även andra åtgärder som kräver både tekniska lösningar och politiska styrmedel och som kan påverka mönstret av elproduktionen och elkonsumtionen, samt att kunna lagra elenergi vid överproduktion, kommer behövas som komplement för att säkerställa försörjningen av el under årets alla timmar.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Both energy and power shortages will be major challenges when the electricity production in bidding zone 3 increases its share of weather-dependent renewable production sources by 2040.
Large-scale expansion of solar and wind power is necessary to enable a transition to a more electrified society, and thus be able to reach the national and international climate goals. These non-planned sources of electricity generation will together be able to produce large amounts of energy during the summer months, but will be insufficient during winter months, when demand for electricity is greatest. Furthermore, when nuclear power is taken out of operation in 2040, the energy shortage in bidding zone 3 will be a fact.
New demands will be set on the power grid system when the increased proportion of weather- dependent renewable electricity generation is connected to the electricity grid at the same time as large consumption patterns are changing. Increasing electricity use is driven by factors such as politics, population growth, economic growth and new technology, and the increasing electrification of various sectors will be necessary to achieve the climate goals by 2040.
Expansion of transmission capacities between bidding zones will be necessary to be able to transmit sufficient electricity to cover the large power deficits. Production flexibility, consumption flexibility and energy storages will be needed as a supplement to ensure that there are opportunities to maintain a positive energy balance during all hours of the year.
In this study, EXCEL was used to build a model that calculates what future electricity production and electricity consumption will look like on an hourly basis in electricity area 3 by 2040. This, to further develop what future energy balances may look like. The model has also been developed to present the need for import of electricity and flexibility in order to meet the energy and power demand that arises in electricity area 3 in 2040. The calculations are based on four different production alternatives, which are designed by the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA);
Production alternative 1 - more solar and wind Production alternative 2 - more bio power Production alternative 3 - new nuclear power Production alternative 4 - more hydropower
and three different scenarios for electricity consumption designed by Svenska Kraftnät; Low, Reference and High consumption. The production alternatives and scenarios for electricity consumption combined presents 12 different cases for the electricity system in bidding zone 3 in 2040. Analyzes from the different cases can draw attention to weaknesses, strengths and needs in the energy conversion that is expected to occur in the coming years. For the production alternatives and consumption scenarios, there are opportunities, for the user of the model, to change input parameters to be able to adapt the use of the model to new hypotheses in future studies.
PREFACE
This master thesis is performed on behalf of WSP and is the final report accomplished at the master programme in energy systems engineering at Uppsala University and Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. The project investigates scenarios for future energy balance in bidding zone 3 in Sweden in the year 2040, based on different alternatives for electricity production and consumption.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisor Claës af Burén at WSP who has enabled a master’s thesis at WSP. I thank you Claës for your guidance, support and patience. A special thanks to my subject reviewer Karin Thomas at Uppsala University, who has been a great support and helped me find structure throughout the execution of the thesis. Thanks for your guidance and valuable comments on this thesis. A big thanks to my friend and supervisor Johannes Hjalmarsson at Uppsala University for his support and guidance, and always making time for me whenever I needed.
Finally, I must express my very profound gratitude to my parents and to my 5 sisters and my brother for providing me with unfailing love, support and continuous encouragement throughout my years of study. Thanks to my sisters Nafia, Elveda and Emina for paving the way for me, accomplishing a master degree in energy systems engineering at Uppsala University would not have been possible without them. Thank you.
TABLE OF CONTENT
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 BACKGROUND 1
1.2 PURPOSE AND PROBLEM STATEMENTS 1
1.3 ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS 2
2. THEORY 3
2.1 THE SWEDISH ENERGY MIX YEAR 2018 3
2.2 FLEXIBILITY 4
2.2.1 PRODUCTION FLEXIBILITY 4
2.2.2 DEMAND FLEXIBILITY 4
2.2.3 ENERGY STORAGE 4
2.3 BIDDING ZONES 5
2.3.1 BIDDING ZONE 3 6
2.4 FUTURE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION 7
2.5 FUTURE ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 9
2.5.1 PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE 1 – MORE SOLAR AND WIND 9
2.5.2 PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE 2 – MORE BIO POWER 10
2.5.3 PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE 3 – NEW NUCLEAR POWER 10
2.5.4 PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE 4 – MORE HYDROPOWER 11
2.6 FUTURE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION CAPACITIES 12
3. METHOD 13
3.1 THE APPROACH OF THE STUDY 13
3.2 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE IN SE3 YEAR 2040 14 3.3 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PROFILE IN SE3 YEAR 2040 14 3.4 FREQUENCY AND MAGNITUDE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE ENERGY BALANCE 15 3.5 TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY AND FLEXIBILITY TO COVER POWER DEMAND 16 4.1 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE IN SE3 YEAR 2040 17 4.2 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PROFILE IN SE3 YEAR 2040 21 4.3 ENERGY BALANCE IN SE3 YEAR 2040 FOR ALL 12 CASES 23 4.4 TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY TO COVER POWER DEMAND 26 4.5 FLEXIBILITY TO COVER ENERGY AND POWER DEMAND 32
5. DISCUSSION 33
5.1 PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND ENERGY BALANCE ANALYSIS 33
5.2 TRANSMISSION 34
5.3 FLEXIBILITY 34
6. CONCLUSION 36
BIBLIOGRAPHY 36
APPENDIX 39
GLOSSARY
IVA – The Royal Academy of Engineering Sciences, a stand-alone academy with the task of promoting technical and economic sciences and business development.
Nord Pool – Nordic power exchange that runs the leading power market in Europe, and offer day-ahead and intraday markets to its customers.
Paris Agreement - Set on November 4 in 2016. Countries have pledged to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and that efforts are being made to keep the increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
SCB (Statistics Sweden) – Sweden's Statistical Office that brings official statistics to the public.
Svenska Kraftnät - Swedish authority that is responsible for ensuring that the electricity transmission system is secure, cost effective and environmentally friendly.
1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND
The Paris Agreement has set the climate issue high on the agenda, and globally emission trends have not reversed even if fossil-free technologies set new records [1]. The Swedish government has presented a number of propositions in order to achieve global climate goals. A proposition from the government, Prop 2019/20:65, set a long-term climate target where the goal is for greenhouse gas emissions to reach net zero by 2045, and reach negative emissions thereafter [2]. In Sweden, emissions have decreased over time but is going too slowly. By 2018 Sweden had decreased their emissions by 27 percent compared to1990. To achieve net zero by 2045, the reduction rate between 2015 and 2045 needs to reach an average of 5-8 per cent per year over time. The industry accounts for just under a third of Sweden's total emissions today, and the iron and steel industry account for most of the industry's emissions at present. Emissions from domestic transport account for about 32 percent of Sweden's total emissions, and a transition to fossil-free road transport is therefore an important step to reach the goal [3]. A transition depends on the availability of biofuels, incentives to drive electric cars, access to charging infrastructure throughout the country, electric roads, transmission capacity in the electricity grid and access to climate-smart electricity [2]. Sweden is already undergoing an extensive transition to become more electrified. Increased use of electric cars, new housing, establishment of data centers and new electric-intensive companies increases the demand for electricity. The demand for electricity is growing faster than the grid is expanding, and capacity shortage is already a problem in urban regions [4].
1.2 PURPOSE AND PROBLEM STATEMENTS
Increased urbanization, digitization and electrification requires extension of the Swedish power grid and enough produced electricity to ensure the supply of future power demand and to prevent power deficits and capacity shortage situations. This becomes more important when Sweden is to increase the share of variable renewable energy in to the Swedish energy mix, and at the same time achieve the goal net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 [4]. Due to the slow expansion of Swedish power grids, new technical solutions will be of great importance to solve power sufficiency situations. Flexibility in production and consumption can become important tools for increasing the ability to manage changes in the electric power system and for future power system stability. Weather-dependent power sources require greater demand on flexibility, and energy storages can become a necessity in improving power sufficiency by storing energy when there is an excess in electricity production to later deal with power shortage situations. To be able to handle challenges in transmission capacity also contributes to an equalization of electricity process in Sweden and fewer hours with price peaks [5].
Therefore, there is of great interest to investigate what power failure situations may look like years ahead. That is, how large and how often they may happen, in order to be able to find solutions with production and consumption flexibility and energy storage.
The aim of this study is to build a model in EXCEL that can calculate/present:
• The electricity production and electricity consumption in bidding zone 3 during year 2040, and the magnitude of electricity that is generated from the various power sources, on an hourly basis.
• The energy balance for different production and consumption cases, and calculate the frequency and magnitude of power shortages and power deficits occurring in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
• If electricity transmission to bidding zone 3 can solve energy and power deficit situations depending on how much of transmission capacity is used.
• If flexibility can complement electricity transmission to solve energy and power deficit situation.
The purpose of the results is to give further understanding of whether there are cases where production and consumption flexibility can be used, or to store electricity in cases of overproduction, to solve energy and power shortage situations in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
The model will be designed in such a way that it is possible to change the input data and get results through numerical values and in graphs.
1.3 ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS
Necessary assumptions and limitations have been made in order to make the study possible.
The study is limited to bidding zone 3 and it is assumed that year 2040 is a typical climate year for Sweden. It is assumed that the weather conditions year 2040 is the same as year 2018. That is, the temperature, precipitation, solar insolation and wind conditions are the same in 2040 as year 2018. Electricity production and consumption follow the same pattern on an hourly basis in 2040 as during year 2018, and the generated electricity in 2040 reaches the annual production capacity. The availability of technology, economy and other resources needed for electricity generation is assumed to be available in 2040. This means that the increased supply of bioenergy, expansion of wind farms and solar panels, higher efficiency of hydropower production and expansion of new hydropower plants, new nuclear power plants, and expansion of power grids are available for electricity production in 2040. The expansion of wind farms and solar panels are assumed to be spread evenly throughout bidding zone 3. The electricity grid capacity in bidding zone 3 is assumed to be the same in 2040 as in 2018. However, the electricity transmission capacity between bidding zone 3 and surrounding bidding zones is assumed to change according to data from reports, and the Nordic system is assumed to be constant except for bidding zone 3. The model does not take into account that 2040 is a leap year, February 29 in 2040 is not included in the calculations. In this study, neither economic nor legal aspects are taken into account.
2. THEORY
2.1 THE SWEDISH ENERGY MIX YEAR 2018
Sweden produces electricity and heat from several power sources. In year 2018, nuclear power accounted for 42 % of total electricity production, while hydropower accounted for 38 %. Wind power and thermal power accounted for 11 % and 9 % respectively [6]. The wind was weaker and precipitation was less in 2018 compared to year 2017, due to an abnormally warm and long summer with a little rain. This affected the production of wind- and hydropower, but the expansion of wind farms compensated for the loss of production. Solar power production accounted for only 0.24 % of the total electricity production in 2018 [7]. Production from gas turbine, diesel turbine, or other unspecified power sources were almost non-existent in 2018 [6]. The total electricity production in Sweden was 158 TWh in 2018, which was a decrease with 1 TWh compared to year 2017 [7].
Figure 1 presents electricity power production from all power sources for year 2018 in bidding zone 3 [8].
Figure 1: Electricity production in bidding zone 3 during year 2018 for all power sources1.
Table 1 presents total electricity production from all power sources in bidding zone 3 during year 2018 [8]. Total electricity production was about 85 TWh where 66 TWh was produced from nuclear power, which is by far the largest power source in the bidding zone [8].
1The figure is a compilation of electricity production data for all power sources on an hourly basis, in bidding zone 3 year 2018. See source [8] in bibliography.
Table 1: Total electricity production, from each power source, in bidding zone 3 during year 2018 [TWh].
Total electricity production from each power source in SE3 [TWh]:
Nuclear power 65.9
Hydropower 8.31
Wind power 5.57
Solar power 0.10
Other thermal power 5.38
Wave power 0
Measured unspecified production 0.08
Gas turbine/diesel 0
Total 85.4
2.2 FLEXIBILITY
When the electricity system is able to be used to regulate the electricity production or consumption compared to what was planned or expected, to meet the demand and remain system stability on the grid, it is called flexibility. Flexibility can be done in different ways, such as; production flexibility, demand flexibility and energy storage [9].
2.2.1 PRODUCTION FLEXIBILITY
Production flexibility is when an electricity production unit regulates its generation. In Swedish electricity production such units are mainly hydropower, cogeneration, and gas turbines.
Hydropower regulation respond within seconds and primarily supply the backbone network.
Gas turbines responds within minutes and are usually used on the local network. Cogeneration can regulate within hours and days, and supply the local network close to where consumption takes place. Production-based flexibility resources usually deliver persistence for longer periods, but due to current conditions they are not always profitable [9].
2.2.2 DEMAND FLEXIBILITY
Demand flexibility is when customers change their use of electricity based on different signals.
Reducing their consumption when the power grid is severely overloaded, or increasing their consumption when the price on electricity is low, are examples on demand flexibility. Demand Using demand flexibility to shift loads when there is access to wind- and solar power can increase use of renewable electricity production [10]. Moving loads to period when electricity demand is lower is also an example on demand flexibility. For example, charging electric vehicles during night when demand for electricity is lower can help reduce the load on the electricity system and avoid high electricity prices, this is called “smart charging”. Some industries can, to an extent, also contribute to reducing the load by shutting down parts of its production during high consumption, however this also depends on their production processes.
[9]. The development of information technologies, for smart services, is important in order to enable demand flexibility [10].
2.2.3 ENERGY STORAGE
Energy storage technologies are units that store energy when there is an excess in energy production, and uses the stored energy when there is an energy deficit. In this way, flexibility is added to the electrical system. Pump hydropower, batteries, compressed air and flywheel
storage are the most common techniques for energy storage. Pump hydropower and compressed air are both useful for balancing power, while batteries are useful as back-up power for unconnected systems and island operations. [11]. Pumped hydropower is a well established and mature technology that is used in large-scale applications. Water is pumped into water reservoirs during hours with power surplus, or when the electricity price is low, and released through turbines later on during hours when power deficit occurs [9]. Motivations and applications for energy storage is to use when there is a difference in electricity price, for balancing energy or power, for start-up during black-outs, reduce power peaks in industries and energy storage for housings [11].
2.3 BIDDING ZONES
The electricity production is mainly generated in the northern part of Sweden while most of the consumption takes place in southern part of the country. This means that there is an excess of electricity in northern part of the country while there is a deficit in south. The transmission of electricity from north to south is therefore necessary in order to meet the demand of electricity in southern Sweden. However, the capacity of transmission lines and cables are not always sufficient due to the transmission capacity limitations that occurs during the hours when the consumption of electricity is high. Transmission capacity limitations increases the electricity price since the price is governed by supply and demand. On November 1, 2011, Sweden introduced a bidding zone (swe. elområden) reform which divided the county into four bidding zones, as illustrated in Figure 2. The reform maps where price differences occur due to capacity imitations and is a way of ensuring that transmission restrictions within the country are handled in a way that does not violate the principles of free movement of goods and services within the European Union. Before the reform, Sweden restricted the export of electricity to Denmark during the hours when Sweden risked a shortage of electricity. The regional price differences between the bidding zones was aimed to simulate expansion of new power plants where there is a deficit of electricity and where the grid needs to be reinforced. Within a bidding zone it is intended to raise the price when there is a shortage which in turn should reduce the demand [12].
Figure 2: The four bidding zones in Sweden [12].
2.3.1 BIDDING ZONE 3
This study only focuses on bidding zone 3 which make up the greater part of middle Sweden, which is illustrated in Figure 3, and includes the counties of Dalarna, Gotland, Gävleborg, Halland, parts of Jönköping, Kalmar, Stockholm, Södermanland, Uppsala, Värmland, Västmanland, Västra Götaland, Örebro and Östergötaland [13]. During the end of year 2018 the majority of the most populated cities were located in bidding zone 3, such as Stockholm, Gothenburg, Uppsala, Linköping, Örebro and Västerås [14].
Figure 3: Counties included in bidding zone 3 [13].
According to Sweden's Statistical Office (SCB) 87 percent of the population lived in urban areas in the end of year 2018 and Stockholm county had the largest increase in population in urban areas in absolute terms during the period of 2015 to 2018 [15]. Also, statistics shows that Stockholm will continue to grow and is currently the capital in Europe where population is growing fastest [16].
2.4 FUTURE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
Every two years, Svenska Kraftnät updates its long-term scenarios report, on future electricity consumption in Sweden, as a part of their long-term market analysis. The developed scenarios are based on today’s electricity market and electrical power system, as well as on decisions on future actions. Keeping the scenarios consistent are an important and central part for the report, that is, there should be no contradiction between different assumptions that is made for the chosen scenarios. Unprofitable production must be closed down and new production must be built, if the market price is sufficiently high and if there are no other reasons that prevent eventual decommissioning or new investment [17].
2015 2020 2030 2040 Low 2040 Ref 2040 High
Distribution losses 10 10 10 10 11 13
Electric cars 0 0 4 4 9 11
New industry 0 0 8 8 13 25
Industry 51 50 50 38 49 49
Household/service/
transport 80 82 82 81 81 81
Total 141 142 1532 141 163 179
Figure 43: The electricity use in Sweden in TWh divided into different consumption categories for year 2015 and assumptions for the years of analysis [17].
Figure 4 presents the electricity consumption in Sweden divided into different categories for the previous year 2015 and for year 2020, 2030 and 2040, where the consumption are based on different developed scenarios. The reference scenario, for year 2040, is based on ENTSOE-E’s TYNDP2018 scenario “Sustainable transition” and has been further developed from the combined knowledge of the NGDP project group. The reference scenario in the report is a joint scenario for the Nordic system that assumes a faster development of the renewable energy system, which induces a higher electricity consumption. Implementation of new industries, such as battery factories and server halls, as well as electrification of the transportation sector and electrification of the steel and cement production are the primary reasons for an intensified Nordic electricity consumption. In Europe, the share of electric cars is assumed to increase to 60 percent and an expansion of heat pumps replaces fossil heating. Renewable production from solar and wind power expands to meet the demand of electricity. Climate actions is expected to occur through increased prices on emission trading and further subventions for renewable energy sources. However, the price of fuel and of emission trading is a vital uncertainty factor that can have a significant impact on the development of the electrical power system [17].
2 Should be 154 TWh but it says 153 TWh in the source, and is therefore not changed by the author.
3 The figure is given in Swedish in the source but is translated into English by the author.
As seen in Figure 4, the average consumption of electricity in Sweden is estimated to increase to just over 160 TWh by the year of 2040 for the reference scenario, and is mainly driven by electrification of the industry and transport sector and by the growth in new industrial areas such as server halls and battery factories. The electricity consumption for category Household/service/transport remains on todays levels since the population growth, for all scenarios, is assumed to be balanced by energy efficiency actions [5]. The establishment of server halls, battery factories and industrial electrification are all incorporated in the category New industry. For year 2040 the high scenario for this category has almost twice as high electricity consumption than the reference scenario, and for the low scenario unprofitability has led to that some traditional industry has been discontinued are moved. However, the establishment of server halls leads to that the total consumption within the industry sector is at about the same level as today [17].
In the low scenario, the share of electric cars in Sweden’s vehicle fleet is expected to reach 25 percent by the year of 2040. In the reference scenario the share is expected to increase to 60 percent, and in the high scenario the share is expected to increase to 70 percent. In both reference and high scenario, 30 percent of the electrical cars are expected to be charged “smart”, that is when there are low electricity prices. However, the cars will have no ability to supply power back to the grid. For the low scenario, the consumption is evenly spread throughout the hours of the year [17].
Figure 5 presents the electricity consumption for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040 for each bidding zone in Sweden. Consumption mostly occur in bidding zone 3 where the majority of the population lives. As a percentage, the consumption increases mostly in bidding zone 2 for the reference and high scenario where category New industry is mainly established [17].
2020 2030 2040 Low 2040 Ref 2040 High
SE1 10 12 10 13 14
SE2 17 20 18 23 27
SE3 90 96 89 101 110
SE4 25 26 24 27 28
Figure 54: Expected electricity consumption for year 2020, 2030 and 2040 in TWh for each bidding zone in Sweden [17].
4 The figure is given in Swedish in the source but is translated into English by the author.
2.5 FUTURE ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
Total production capacity in Sweden is expected to reach 160 TWh somewhere between year 2030 and 2050. However, this report only focuses on the production capacity in bidding zone 3, which is presented in Table 2. The report “Sveriges framtida elnät - En delrapport. IVA- projektet Vägval el” and “Sveriges framtida elproduktion - En delrapport. IVA-projektet Vägval el”, both published by IVA, see Bibliography, presents four scenarios for production alternative for the Swedish energy system that is aimed to be established somewhere between year 2030 and 2050 [18] [19].
The four scenarios for the production alternatives is presented as:
• Production alternative 1 - more solar and wind
• Production alternative 2 - more bio power
• Production alternative 3 - new nuclear power
• Production alternative 4 - more hydropower
Table 2 presents the electrical power production capacity for each renewable energy source and for each production alternative that will be available by year 2040 [18].
Table 25: The electrical power production capacity from different renewable energy sources, for the four different production alternatives, in TWh that will be available in SE3 by year 2040 according to IVA.
PA1 PA2 PA3 PA4
Hydropower 10 10 10 12
Nuclear power 0 0 48 0
Wind power 15 15 8 10
Bio power 14 28 12 20
Solar power 10 4 4 3
Total 49 57 82 45
2.5.1 PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE 1 – MORE SOLAR AND WIND
Production alternative “More solar and wind”, which is presented as PA1 in the tables, assume a total electricity production of 49 TWh in bidding zone 3 [18]. For this production alternative the share of unplanned power amounts to up to 50 percent of the annual energy production [19].
The additional production mainly takes place through medium- and small-scale wind power in the local networks and through solar power near the consumers in the local networks. The wind farms will to a large extent probably, be built in sparsely populated areas where good wind conditions occur, and be connect to the local networks [18].
As presented in Table 2, wind power production is assumed to increase to 15 TWh, solar power is assumed to increase to 10 TWh, and bio power is assumed to increase to 14 TWh. All nuclear power is taken out of operation for this production alternative and thus produces 0 TWh. This means a decrease of production from a large-scale source that produces 65 TWh today.
Hydropower has the same level of production capacity as year 2018 and is 10 TWh. In production alternative 1, an energy deficit occurs in bidding zone 3 and the net balance for the
5Table 2 is a compilation of data collected from the report “Sveriges framtida elnät- En delrapport. IVA- projektet Vägval el” published by IVA, see Bibliography.
bidding zone is decreases by about 40 TWh. Transmission from bidding zone 2 and via international connections will therefore have to increase significantly to meet demand [18].
The production from wind power is statistically higher during winter season, while the solar power production mainly takes place during the summer. The power peaks in production are assumed to be evenly matched as the generated solar power and generated wind power complement each other. The assumptions in this production alternative also take into account whether it is realistic to adapt the development of the electricity grid to the changes in production. Production alternative 1 requires an expansion in transmission capacity in order for the alternative to be realized [19].
2.5.2 PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE 2 – MORE BIO POWER
Production alternative “More bio power”, which is presented as PA2 in the tables, assume a total electricity production of 57 TWh in bidding zone 3 [18]. For this production alternative the share of unplanned power amounts to up to 33 percent of the annual energy production, and bio power amounts to up to 32 percent in SE3. Primarily, the biofuel used is fuel originating in the forest or biogas that may also have other biogenic origin. New bio power plants are assumed to be located in places that already have cogeneration, or in heating systems located in urban areas that does not have cogeneration. Production alternative 2 will therefore not require extensive expansion of the electricity infrastructure, however, it will be necessary to develop the logistics for biofuel to make it more widely available on the market [19]. An effective and successful forestry can contribute to a greater range of biofuel but the increased investment in bio power may still be limited due to the greater demand for the raw material [18].
As presented in Table 2, bio power production is assumed to increase to 28 TWh, wind power is assumed to increase to 15 TWh, and solar power is assumed to increase to 4 TWh. All nuclear power is taken out of operation for this production alternative and thus produces 0 TWh, which means a decrease of production from a large-scale source that produces 65 TWh today.
Hydropower has the same level of production capacity as year 2018 and is 10 TWh [18].
In production alternative 2, an energy deficit occurs in bidding zone 3 and the net balance is decreases by about 40 TWh. Transmission from bidding zone 2 and via international connections will therefore have to increase significantly to meet demand [18]. Even if largest proportion of bio power production is expected to be connected in bidding zone 3, the increase of wind and solar power is evident for increasing power production. Technology development and demonstration plants for new cogeneration technology is necessary to reach its full potential, this refers to both large-scale plants with significantly higher efficiency than today’s plants and small-scale cogeneration plants [19].
2.5.3 PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE 3 – NEW NUCLEAR POWER
Production alternative “New nuclear power”, which is presented as PA3 in the tables, assume a total electricity production of 82 TWh in bidding zone 3 [18]. The share of unplanned power will at most amounts to up to 15 percent of the annual energy production. New nuclear power plants (Most likely LWR, light-water reactor of the type 3+) are expected to primarily replace
already existing establishments in SE3, which requires minor changes in the electrical grid since it already is built for a production mix which includes nuclear power. By 2020, six nuclear power plants will remain and are expected to be in operation until 2040-2045 and produce 50 TWh per year. All six reactors will however be replaced by year 2050 and produce between 30 TWh to 70 TWh depending on the development of the demand for electricity [19].
As presented in Table 2, the electrical production capacity for nuclear power is assumed to decrease to 48 TWh, for wind power it is assumed to increase to 8 TWh, for solar power it is assumed to increase to 4 TWh, and for bio power it is assumed to increase to 12 TWh.
Hydropower has the same level of production capacity as today and is 10 TWh [18].
Part of today’s nuclear power production is expected to be replaced by bio power, wind power and solar power, which will result in an energy deficit in SE3. The net balance for SE3 is decreased by about 11 TWh [18]. Transmission from bidding zone 2 and via international connections will not have to increase significantly to meet the demand in bidding zone 3 [18].
This production alternative is similar to the already existing energy system and investments in new cogeneration technology will not be necessary. Building new nuclear power plants is a long-term commitment as they have long technical and economic life-span [19].
2.5.4 PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVE 4 – MORE HYDROPOWER
Production alternative “More hydropower”, which is represented as PA4 in the tables, assume a total electricity production of 45 TWh in bidding zone 3. Higher efficiency of existing power plants, expansion of already exploited rivers and expansion of the four protected and unexploited national Swedish rivers and other protected rivers, are probable scenarios for expansion of hydropower [18]. However, in order to exploit the four national rivers, a changed legalization is required [19].
As presented in Table 2, the electrical production capacity for hydropower is assumed to increase to 12 TWh, for wind power it is assumed to increase to 10 TWh, for solar power it is assumed to increase to 3 TWh, and for bio power it is assumed to increase to 20 TWh. In this production alternative all nuclear power is taken out of operation and thus produces 0 TWh, which means a fall in production from a large-scale source that produces 65 TWh today [18].
Hydropower is the most flexible and storable type of energy with its hydro dams, and production alternative 4 has therefore the qualifications to create a system where Sweden is self-sufficient in energy and power. Building new hydropower is a long term commitment since they have a long technical and economical life span [19]. The transmission capacity from bidding zone 1 and 2 to bidding zone 3 needs to be expanded for this production alternative, since it mainly means increased hydropower in bidding zone 1 and 2 [19]. The regional and local grid will need reinforcement in order to handle the additional production since the net balance for produced electricity in bidding zone 3 is expected to decrease with about 50 TWh.
The loss of produced electricity will mainly be compensated by transmitted electricity from bidding zone 2 [18].
2.6 FUTURE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION CAPACITIES
The importance of transmission capacity increases with more unplanned production in the system and expanding the transmission capacities in the backbone network creates conditions for efficient utilization of the system’s production resources. A scenario for future changes in electricity transmission capacities for the Nordic cuts are presented in Table 3. The assumed transmission capacities are a part of the projects that are included in the European system operators’ ten-year plan and in ENTSO-E’s TYNDP [17].
In Sweden, transmission capacity between bidding zone 2 and 3 is expected to increase to 10500 MW, and between bidding zone 3 and 4 it is expected to increase to 7200 MW by year 2040 [17]. The transmission capacity between bidding zone 3 and Finland will decrease with 400 MW as a result of decommissioning of the cable “Fenno-Skan1”, and will thus be 800 MW by year 2040. However, a new 800 MW HVDC cable is planned to be installed between Finland and bidding zone 2 instead. The transmission capacity between bidding zone 3 and Denmark, and bidding zone 3 and Norway is planned to increase to 680 MW and 2095 MW respectively [17].
Preliminary simulation results done by “Projects of Common Interest”, which is projects identified as priority by the European union for interconnection Europe better, showed how the expanding transmission capacities led to large price differences and thus probable profitability for these projects [17].
Table 3: Installed transmission capacity between bidding zone 3 and other bidding zones year 2040 [MW].
Transfer SE3-DK1 SE3-FI SE3-NO1 SE3-SE2 SE3-SE4 Installed transmission capacity 680 800 2095 10500 7200 The installed transmission capacities between bidding zone 3 and other bidding zones, during the end of year 2018, are presented in Table 4 [20].
Table 4: Installed transmission capacity between bidding zone 3 and other bidding zones year 2018 [MW].
Transfer SE3-DK1 SE3-FI SE3-NO1 SE3-SE2 SE3-SE4 Installed transmission capacity 680 1200 2095 7300 5400
3. METHOD
3.1 THE APPROACH OF THE STUDY
The project initiated with a literature study, and information on today’s and future challenges for the Swedish power grid was studied. To achieve the purpose of this study, and enable the building of the model in the computer program EXCEL, a quantitative study was made. Data on today’s and future electricity production capacities, consumption, and planned reinforcement of power grids in Sweden, and neighboring counties, was collected from various reports and was analyzed.
The data presented in the various reports were often contradictory to one another, which made it necessary to sort the data and limit the data collection from fewer sources. Sources that presented the most data on possible production scenarios, from each power source used in Sweden, and which were not contradictory at the same time, were selected for this study. That the same data is repeated in several reports was also of great importance. Data on future electricity production capacity was collected from “Sveriges framtida elnät - En delrapport.
IVA-projektet Vägval el” and “Sveriges framtida elproduktion - En delrapport. IVA-projektet Vägval el”, both published by IVA, see Bibliography. All production alternatives are assumed to have their energy system ready sometime between the years 2030 and 2050, however, in this report it is assumed that it will be ready by year 2040. The four production capacity scenarios that are used in this study are presented in Table 2. Data on future electricity consumption that is assumed to occur in 2040 was collected from the report “Långsiktig marknadsanalys 2018”, published by Svenska Kraftnät, see Bibliography. The report presents three different consumption scenarios for the year 2040, all of which are presented in Figure 5. There is no contradiction between the different assumptions made for the selected consumption scenarios, which is important not only for this study, but also for maintaining the consistency between the different scenarios.
Data on future electricity production capacities and future electricity consumption are presented as total annual values in the reports. With calculations, the production and consumption pattern in bidding zone 3, on an hourly basis by 2040, was predicted. This was achieved by basing the calculations on today’s production and consumption pattern. That is, on a daily basis the demand for energy is higher during the day, and on a yearly basis the demand is higher during the winter when the temperature is lower.
The electricity production profile, for each primary energy source used in the energy mix in bidding zone 3 for year 2018 on an hourly basis, that is from 2018-01-01 at 00:00:00 to 2018- 12-31at 23:59:59, was collected from Svenska Kraftnät [8]. The energy mix for electricity production is categorized into nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, solar power, other thermal power, wave power, measured unspecified production and gas turbine/diesel. The consumption profile for bidding zone 3 in 2018 on an hourly basis, that is from 2018-01-01 at 00:00:00 to 2018-12-31 at 23:59:59, was collected from Svenska Kraftnät [21].
Calculations for the production profile in bidding zone 3 for year 2040 on an hourly basis was made for each power source in each production alternative that are presented in Table 2, and for the consumption profile calculations were made for the consumptions scenarios; low-, reference-, and high scenario, which are presented in Figure 5.
Data for transmission capacities in 2040, from surrounding bidding zones, was collected from the report “Långsiktig marknadsanalys 2018”, published by Svenska Kraftnät, see Bibliography. The data was used for calculations on the quantity of transmitted electricity needed, from surrounding bidding zones, to cover future power demand in bidding zone 3 during 2040.
3.2 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE IN SE3 YEAR 2040
A change factor that describes the percentage change for the electricity production in bidding zone 3 in 2040, compared to year 2018, was calculated for each power source in all four production alternatives, that are presented in Table 2. The change factor for the produced electricity for each power source was calculated by using Equation (1), where X represents a power source.
𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑋 =
= 1 +𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑋 𝑖𝑛 2040 − 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑋 𝑖𝑛 2018 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑋 𝑖𝑛 2018 (1)
To receive an electricity production profile on an hourly basis for year 2040 and for each power source, the change factor received in Equation (1) was multiplied with the produced electricity at every hour in 2018, see Equation (2). Y represents a chosen hour of the year; hence this calculation was made 8760 times in order to receive a production profile for a whole year.
𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑋 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑌 𝑖𝑛 2040 =
= 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑋 ∙
𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑋 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑌 𝑖𝑛 2018 (2) 3.3 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PROFILE IN SE3 YEAR 2040
A change factor that describes the percentage change for the electricity consumption in bidding zone 3 in 2040, compared to year 2018, was calculated for each consumption scenario, that are presented in Figure 4. The change factor for the consumed electricity for each scenario was calculated by using Equation (3), where Z presents the chosen consumption scenario.
𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑜 𝑍 = (3)
= 1 +𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑜 𝑍 𝑖𝑛 2040 − 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 2018 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 2018
To receive an electricity consumption profile on an hourly basis for year 2040 and for each consumption scenario, the change factor received in Equation (3) was multiplied with the consumed electricity at every hour in 2018, see Equation (4). Y represents a chosen hour of the year; hence this calculation was made 8760 times in order to receive a consumption profile for a whole year.
𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑜 𝑍 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑌 𝑖𝑛 2040 =
= 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑜 𝑍 ∙
𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑌 𝑖𝑛 2018 (4)
3.4 FREQUENCY AND MAGNITUDE OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE ENERGY BALANCE The energy balance is obtained by calculating the difference between produced and consumed electrical energy. The energy balance is calculated, according to Equation (5), on an hourly basis for all four production alternatives, each of which is compared with the three different consumption scenarios. Based on this, 12 different cases of energy balances are obtained, see Table 5 below.
𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 −/𝑛𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑌 𝑖𝑛 2040 =
= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑌 𝑖𝑛 2040 −
𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑜 𝑍 𝑎𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑌 𝑖𝑛 2040 (5)
Table 4: Four cases of production alternatives and three consumption scenarios are examined combined, which results in 12 different cases for energy balance in SE3 during year 2040.
PA1 PA2 PA3 PA4
2040 Low A1 A2 A3 A4
2040 Reference B1 B2 B3 B4
2040 High C1 C2 C3 C4
The result for all 12 cases are presented in histograms by using the EXCEL function
“Frequency”. The function presents the number of hours during the year in which positive and negative energy balance occur, and the magnitude of the positive respective negative energy balance divided into intervals.
3.5 TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY AND FLEXIBILITY TO COVER POWER DEMAND Calculations on how much of the future transmission capacity from surrounding bidding zones that is needed to cover power demand in bidding zone 3, during year 2040, was made for all 12 cases.
Table 6 presents how much power that is transferred to bidding zone 3, from surrounding bidding zones, when 25 %, 50 % or 75 % of the transfer capacity is used.
Table 5: Transmission capacity [MW] between bidding zone 3 and other bidding zones, year 2040, when 25 %, 50 % or 75 % of the transfer capacity is used.
Transfer SE3-DK1 SE3-FI SE3-NO1 SE3-SE2 SE3-SE4 Sum
25 % used capacity 170 200 523.75 2625 1800 5318.75 50 % used capacity 340 400 1047.5 5250 3600 10637.5 75 % used capacity 510 600 1571.25 7875 5400 15956.25 Electricity transmission to bidding zone 3 only occurs during hours when there is a negative energy balance. Each negative value of the energy balance is added with the transmitted electricity from the surrounding bidding zones, depending on the transmission capacity that is used, see Equation (6). However, the magnitude of the electricity transmission to bidding zone 3 does not exceed the transmission capacity that is used. When the negative energy balance is less than the magnitude of the transmission capacity, only as much electricity as is needed is transferred to make the energy balance equal to zero. This calculation is done by using the EXCEL function “Sumif”. The calculations are done for all 12 cases and for each transmission capacity that is used.
𝑁𝑒𝑤 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 =
= 𝑁𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 + 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑊 % 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑠 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑑 (6) Further, the EXCEL function “Countif” is used to calculate the number of hours, during year 2040, when positive respective negative energy balance occurs, and function “Sumif” is used to calculate the total value of the positive respective negative energy balance, in MW, that occurs during year 2040.
If flexibility can be used to cover rest of the energy and power demand, when transmission to bidding zone 3 already has been used, is calculated by sum the value of the total value of power surplus with the total value of power deficit that occurs during year 2040. When New energy balance has been calculated according to Equation (6), the EXCEL function “Sumif” can be used to calculate total power surplus and total power deficit that occurs during 2040, for all 12 cases. Positive value indicates that if flexibility is used, it can cover the rest of energy and power demand. Negative value indicate that flexibility is not enough.
4. RESULT
As presented in Table 5, all four production alternatives are analyzed for each consumption scenario. The results from all calculations are presented in this chapter.
4.1 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PROFILE IN SE3 YEAR 2040
The results for the calculated electricity production profiles in SE3 year 2040, for all four production alternatives, are presented in the figures below. More detailed data, showing the percentage increase and decrease of power production for all power sources in the four production alternatives, are shown in Table 7.
Figure 6 presents the electricity production profile from all power sources for production alternative 1, when more solar and wind power is installed, in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
Figure 6: Electricity production for production alternative 1, where more solar and wind power are generated, in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
For production alternative 1, solar and wind power production together make up to 51 % of total annual electricity generation. This production alternative also results in a total annual electricity production of almost 49 TWh, that is a decrease by 57%, thus 36 TWh, compared to year 2018.
Figure 7 presents the electricity production profile from all power sources for production alternative 2 in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
Figure 7: Electricity production for production alternative 2, where more bio power is generated, in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
For production alternative 2, power production from other thermal power make up 49 % of the total annul electricity generation. This production alternative also results in a total annual electricity production of almost 57 TWh, that is a decrease by 33%, thus 28 TWh, compared to year 2018.
Figure 8 presents the electricity production profile from all power sources for production alternative 3 in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
Figure 8: Electricity production for production alternative 3, where new nuclear power is generated, in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
For production alternative 3, power production from new nuclear power make up 58 % of the total annul electricity generation. This production alternative also results in a total annual electricity production of almost 82 TWh, that is a decrease by 4%, thus 3 TWh, compared to year 2018.
Figure 9 presents the electricity production profile from all power sources for production alternative 4 in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
Figure 9: Electricity production for production alternative 4, where more hydropower is generated, in bidding zone 3 during year 2040.
For production alternative 4, power production from hydropower make up 27 % of the total annul electricity generation. This production alternative also results in a total annual electricity production of almost 47 TWh, that is a decrease by 47 %, thus 40 TWh, compared to year 2018.
Table 7 presents the percentage increase and decrease of power production from all power sources in the four production alternatives. Power production from solar and wind have the largest percentage increase in all four production alternatives, and power production from nuclear facilities has the largest percentage decrease in all four production alternatives. Power production from Wave power, measured unspecified production and gas turbine/diesel remains on the same level as in 2018.
Table 6: Percentage increase/decrease [%] in electricity production for all power sources in the different production alternatives, in SE3 year 2040, compared to year 2018.
PA1 PA2 PA3 PA4
Hydropower +20.3 +20.3 +20.3 +44.3
Nuclear power -100 -100 -27.2 -100
Wind power +170 +170 +43.6 +79.5
Bio power +160 +421 +123 +272
Solar power +10100 +3990 +3990 +2970
Wave power +0 +0 +0 +0
Measured unspecified production +0 +0 +0 +0
Gas turbine/diesel +0 +0 +0 +0
4.2 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PROFILE IN SE3 YEAR 2040
The results for the calculated electricity consumption in SE3 year 2040, are presented in figures and tables. The figures for Low, Reference and High consumption scenario is presented in Figure 10, 11 and 12 below. The total electricity consumption in bidding zone 3 was 31 TWh during year 2018, and the hour with largest consumption occurred on February 27 at 6 PM with a value of 8284.5 MWh.
Table 8 presents the total annual electricity consumption that is calculated for all three scenarios, in SE3 year 2040, and the total annual increase in TWh, compared to year 2018. Low, Reference and High scenario results in a percentage increase of electricity consumption with 184 %, 223 % and 251 % respectively, compared to year 2018.
Table 7: Total annual electricity consumption for all three consumption scenarios in SE3 year 2040, and total annual increase in TWh, compared to year 2018.
Total consumption in 2040 [TWh] Total increase of consumption compared to year 2018 [TWh]
Low scenario 89.0 +57.7
Reference scenario 101 +69.7
High scenario 110 +78.7
Due to calculations made in Equation (3) and Equation (4), where the change factor is multiplied with the electricity consumption in 2018, at every hour, the consumption patterns for the three scenarios in 2040 follows the same pattern as the consumption during 2018. Hence, the hour with largest consumption occurs on February 27 at 6 PM in all three cases, which for Low, Reference and High scenario is 23550 MWh, 26725 MWh, and 29106 MWh respectively.
Figure 10: Consumption profile in SE3 during year 2018 and year 2040 for Low consumption scenario.
Figure 11: Consumption profile in SE3 during year 2018 and year 2040 for Reference consumption scenario.
Figure 12: Consumption profile in SE3 during year 2018 and year 2040 for High consumption scenario.
4.3 ENERGY BALANCE IN SE3 YEAR 2040 FOR ALL 12 CASES.
Frequency and magnitude of the energy balance in bidding zone 3 during year 2040, for all 12 cases, are presented in the figures below. Figure 13 presents the frequency and magnitude of the energy balance for all four production alternatives when there is a Low consumption scenario in SE3 during year 2040.
Figure 13: Frequency and magnitude of the energy balance in bidding zone 3 during year 2040 for case A1, A2, A3 and A4.
Positive energy balance occurs during 14 %, 8 %, 45 % and 1 % of the time during year 2040 in case A1, A2, A3 and A4 respectively. As seen in Figure 13, the frequency and magnitude of positive energy balance hits highest values in case A3, and lowest values in case A4. In case A4, positive energy balance only occurs for 80 hours during year 2040. Case A1 has the highest frequency where negative energy balance is greater than 9 GW. The frequency, total magnitude, the maximal and minimal value in which positive respective negative energy balance occur in SE3 during year 2040, for all four cases when there is a Low consumption scenario, are all presented in Table 9.
Table 8: Total number of hours, total magnitude, the maximal and minimal value during year 2040, in which positive respective negative energy balance occur, for all four cases when there is a Low consumption scenario.
Positive energy balance Negative energy balance
Frequency [h/year]
Magnitude [GWh/year]
Max value [GWh/h]
Frequency [h/year]
Magnitude [GWh/year]
Min value [GWh/h]
Case A1 1230 2960 9.20 7540 42900 15.0
Case A2 675 636 4.50 8090 32600 12.3
Case A3 3960 8020 7.10 4800 14900 10.6
Case A4 80.0 31.8 1.70 8680 44000 14.3
Figure 14 presents the frequency and magnitude of the energy balance for all four production alternatives when there is a Reference consumption scenario in SE3 during year 2040.
Figur 14: Frequency and magnitude of the energy balance in bidding zone 3 during year 2040 for case B1, B2, B3 and B4.
Positive energy balance occurs during 11 %, 3 %, 34 % and 0.1 % of the time during year 2040 in case B1, B2, B3 and B4 respectively. As seen in Figure 14, the frequency and magnitude of positive energy balance hits highest values in case B3, and lowest values in case B4. In case B4, positive energy balance only occurs for 11 hours during year 2040. Case B1 has the highest frequency where negative energy balance is greater than 9 GW. The frequency, total magnitude, the maximal and minimal value in which positive respective negative energy balance occur in SE3 during year 2040, for all four cases when there is a Reference consumption scenario, are presented in Table 10.
Table 10: Total number of hours, total magnitude, the maximal and minimal value during year 2040, in which positive respective negative energy balance occur, for all four cases when there is a Reference consumption scenario.
Positive energy balance Negative energy balance
Frequency [h/year]
Magnitude [GWh/year]
Max value [GWh/h]
Frequency [h/year]
Magnitude [GWh/year]
Min value [GWh/h]
Case B1 941 2020 8.30 7820 53900 18.1
Case B2 290 239 3.70 8470 44200 15.1
Case B3 2950 5110 6.30 5810 24000 13.7
Case B4 11.0 3.80 0.90 8750 55900 17.4
Figure 15 presents the energy balance for all four production alternatives when there is a High consumption scenario.
Figur 15: Frequency and magnitude of the energy balance in bidding zone 3 during year 2040 for case C1, C2, C3 and C4.
Positive energy balance occurs during 9 %, 2 %, 27 % and almost 0 % of the time during year 2040 in case B1, B2, B3 and B4 respectively. As seen in Figure 15, the frequency and magnitude of positive energy balance hits highest values in case C3, and lowest values in case C4. In case C4, positive energy balance only occurs for 2 hours during year 2040, and is not greater than 1 GW. Case C1 has the highest frequency where negative energy balance is greater than 9 GW. The frequency, total magnitude, the maximal and minimal value in which positive respective negative energy balance occur in SE3 during year 2040, for all four cases when there is a High consumption scenario, are presented in Table 11.
Table 11: Total number of hours, total magnitude, the maximal and minimal value during year 2040, in which positive respective negative energy balance occur, for all four cases when there is a High consumption scenario.
Positive energy balance Negative energy balance
Frequency [h/year]
Magnitude [GWh/year]
Max value [GWh/h]
Frequency [h/year]
Magnitude [GWh/year]
Min value [GWh/h]
Case C1 748 1480 7.70 8010 62400 20.4
Case C2 160 104 3.10 8600 53000 17.4
Case C3 2370 3520 5.70 6390 31400 16.1
Case C4 2.00 0.40 0.20 8760 64900 19.8
