A New Hope: The Role and Influence of Civil Society in the Return of the Environmental State

A New Hope:

The Role and Influence of Civil Society in the Return of the Environmental State

Lukas Andraschko

International Relations

Dept. of Global Political Studies Bachelor programme – IR103L 15 credits thesis

Thesis submitted: Spring/2021 Supervisor: Ulrika Waaranperä

Date of Submission: 17

^th

of May 2021

A trend has recently sprung up among several European countries, that have adopted climate laws as a way to deal with the current climate crisis. Comparing these laws, it seems as though there are vast differences between the levels of commitment to take climate action. Especially, one case seems to stand out significantly as it is much more ambitious in many regards: The Danish Climate Act of 2019.

What makes this case even more unique is that Danish civil society was heavily involved in the creation of this policy outcome. Thus, with this thesis, I hoped to explore the role of non- state actors in normative shifts in the ways countries and civil society think about and react to CC. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to answer the following puzzle: What is the role and influence of the Danish climate movement – posing as norm entrepreneurs – in the adoption of Denmark’s Climate Act?

Using qualitative semi-structured expert interviews, three major explanatory variables were discovered that are likely to have resulted in the adoption of Denmark’s climate law. The first variable concentrates on the strong social cohesion and close relations among various actor- groups in Denmark, while the second contends that various developments intertwined and overlapped in a manner that constituted the perfect timing for the climate movement to act.

Together, the interplay between these two major variables facilitated the third major finding of this research project, which argues that the effective character of the social mobilization around the cause, triggered by the strategic agency of the Danish climate movement, has led to the adoption of Denmark’s Climate Act.

Key Words: Climate Change, Environmental State, Non-State Actors, ENGOs, Climate Law

Word Count: 14 081

I would like to present my gratitude to the following group of people, without whom this thesis could not have taken place.

First and foremost, I would like to thank my Girlfriend, Anastasia, for all the love and support she gave me throughout my journey. Thank you for believing in me! Without you

pulling me down to earth whenever I was doubting myself, I could not have done it.

I would also like to thank my supervisor, Ulrika Waaranperä, for assisting me in completing this thesis with more enthusiasm and dedication to her students than I have ever seen. I am particularly grateful for all the constructive feedback and time spent answering to questions

and commenting on drafts of mine.

Lastly, I would like to thank my study group – Paul Vater, Ron Maslo, and Mi Bui - for

keeping me so motivated.

Acknowledgements ii

1. CHAPTER: INTRODUCTION 1

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5. CONCLUSION 35

Bibliography 36

Appendices 41

1. Chapter: Introduction

Climate Change (CC) and global warming are without a doubt two of the most dangerous and important issues our planet faces today. It is a multi-level, multi-actor, and multi-sector problem. For International Relations (IR) and politics, CC is at the top of the agenda and a phenomenon that is often discussed in international fora and platforms such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Climate Change Conference of 2015. However, the big problem when trying to mitigate CC is that it is decentralized and globally reaching, thus creating the need for absolutely everyone to take up action if we are to solve the climate crisis (Blackburn 2003; Broome 2014; Lang 2015; Sikkink 2020).

However, not everyone is eager to do something about CC, let alone willing to recognize the gravity of the problem. A recent debate at the center of this has been concerned with the role that states should play in spearheading the green transition that societies across the globe need to realize to save our planet. Wealthy and developed welfare states in the global north present a particularly interesting vantage point to study the possibility of states realizing this sort of change.

Especially compelling is that, in recent times, a pattern has sprung up in Europe, where efforts to become carbon-neutral are increasingly re-connected to the nation-state. After almost a decade of shrinking state influence on an international and domestic scale, due to globalization and the multiplicity of actors involved in the realm of environmental governance, bringing the state back to the center of climate politics is a trend that has seen some substantial successes in dealing with the current climate crisis. Still, it seems as though certain countries display greener policy outcomes than others. One explanation could be the involvement and influence of civil society in forcing their governments to take climate action (Climate Action Tracker; Environmental Performance Index; Environmental Policy Performance; Grantham Research Institute; UNDP 2021).

1.1 The Danish Climate Law & Research Question

Among the European family of climate laws, the UK made the first entrance with its Climate

Change Act, which was passed in 2008. It “provides a long-term framework to improve carbon

management, to help the transition to a low carbon economy, encourage investment in low

carbon goods and provide an international signal” (Grantham Research Institute). Altogether,

the British Climate Change Act, with its focus to bind the country to reduce emissions by

setting targets and reviewing climate action, is by far the oldest of the bunch. It could be

considered influential for many other laws that have emerged in countries including Switzerland (2013), Finland (2015), Norway (2017), Sweden (2017), Germany (2019), Netherlands (2019), Denmark (2019), and Hungary (2020).

Although Europe seems to present fertile grounds to create this quite impressive (or unimpressive) list of countries that have already passed climate laws, one case in particular stands out: The Danish Climate Act of 2019. This climate law is different in comparison to some of the other laws, as it has much stronger targets, stricter mechanisms to enforce the law, and incentives to make sure the government does not remain inactive. For example, Hungary and the UK set out to become climate neutral by 2050 (as imposed by the Paris Agreement), while the Netherlands only agreed to have a 95% reduction until 2050, and Finland aiming for an 80% reduction by 2050. None of them, except the UK, who has promised to review climate action and create 5-yearly carbon budgets, have agreed to include targets for 2030 in their laws.

Sweden is slightly more determined as it wants to become carbon neutral by 2045 and set some interim targets, including a GHG-emission reduction of 63% by 2030 (Grantham Research Institute).

Nevertheless, none of the discussed European climate laws are as ambitious as the Danish climate law, which not only states that the country should be carbon neutral by 2050 but also has a 70% reduction target by 2030. Additionally, Denmark’s Climate Act includes goals to review the country’s climate action annually (based on “global fair share” emission reduction calculations by an independent advisory “Climate Council”) and committed itself to other objectives, such as global support through “climate funding” for countries in need or the rule that ministries have to put on a “green lens” when making decisions “as a safeguard to make sure positive climate efforts in one part of its government are not undermined by those in another” (Appendix 1; Timperley 2019; Grantham Institute). Yet another difference of the Danish climate law, which is of paramount significance is that it was proposed by an alliance of Danish environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs). In other words, the reason why the law was ultimately passed is the heavy influence and pressure from civil society.

Having observed the successful campaign of ENGOs and climate activists in Denmark and

their push for the adoption of the nation’s first climate law, I asked myself how this was

possible and to what extent similar outcomes could be achieved in other settings (Timperley

2019). More distinctly, with this thesis, I hope to explore the role of non-state actors in

normative shifts in the ways countries and civil society think about and react to CC. In other

words, this thesis will try to answer the following research question: What is the role and

influence of the Danish climate movement – posing as norm entrepreneurs – in the adoption of Denmark’s Climate Act?

1.2 Structure of the thesis

The remainder of this paper will be divided into three sections: Chapter 2 discusses relevant

literature and theoretical approaches that are central to the study of the proposed case; Chapter

3 will follow up and employ a research method comprised of previously used approaches to

the study of global environmental politics; Chapter 4 will then present the core findings of the

research before concluding this paper by demonstrating the answer to the research question of

this thesis.

2. Chapter: Literature Review / Theory

The purpose of this literature review is two-fold. It provides us with a theoretical framework that influences the way that research for this project has been conducted and, at the same time, it was used as a tool to analyze the data collected. The literature review will thus be divided into subsections discussing theories and concepts of relevant topics to make up the ontological and epistemological foundations of this thesis.

2.1 Social Constructivism

The ontological and epistemological vantage point this thesis takes on is based on Social Constructivist IR Theory. Despite there being many different subcategories of Constructivism, they all have certain assumptions in common. According to Jung (2019: pp. 1-2) Constructivism rests on three basic tenets: “The epistemological claim that knowledge is socially constructed; the ontological claim that social reality is constructed; and the reflexive claim that knowledge and reality are mutually constitutive”. Further, Finnemore & Sikkink (2001: 393) claim that Constructivism can be summarized as having three core assumptions:

a. Human interaction is primarily explained by ideational factors, not material ones;

b. The most significant ideational factors in this context are “intersubjective” beliefs that are part of a shared collective understanding;

c. These beliefs construct the actors’ identities and interests and are the building blocks of how we perceive the social reality that we live in. Through all of this, it is commonly emphasized that agents and structures - both part of this social reality - are mutually constituted.

Moreover, this constructed reality can often be explored “by investigating the norms, rules and ideas or discourses that structure global political life” (Lang 2015: 11). With the above in mind, one avenue of research could be that state policy is largely based on national identity, and more precisely, ecological identity (Buchner & Jasper 2016; Eckersley 2016 & 2020; Gatersleben et al. 2012; Leinaweaver & Thomson 2016; Walton & Jones 2017). Consequently, Finnemore &

Sikkink (1998) developed their theory of the “norm-life cycle” as a model for how values, norms, and identities of actors can interplay to shape the creation of new norms – and realities.

In essence, this theory was created as a tool to identify links between norm creation, and social

or political change. The framework “articulates the evolution of norms in three stages – norm

emergence, norm cascade, and internalization” (Figure 1; Jung 2019: 5). In the first stage, a

norm first develops and is promoted by actors with compatible motives. As soon as the norm

has been adopted by a critical mass of actors, we have moved into the next stage. Finally, when

the norms have been institutionalized well enough it has become internalized to the point where actors take the norm for granted – as if it were a part of their identity (Gach 2019: 3). In other words, “at this point, people may adhere to norms not because they share a conviction but because that is simply the thing to do” (Sikkink 2020: 16).

This norm lifecycle, then, can be observed in the case of Denmark’s Climate Act, where Danish ENGOs were pushing for the adoption of a green policy outcome. This could be considered as the promotion of sustainability as a norm to be internalized amongst Danish society as “the new normal”. Accordingly, it seems as though enough people in Denmark had the same mindset towards CC and collectively called for climate action. To specify the importance, we can look at the work of Chenoweth & Stephan (2011). These scholars took up the question of why and when civil resistance works and successfully argued that all it takes to achieve substantial political change or influence policy is 3.5% of the population to actively participate in protests (Chenoweth & Stephan 2011; Robinson 2019). This could be seen as the “tipping point” described by Finnemore & Sikkink, which has been observed throughout 2018/19 with the massive numbers of people going to the streets to join climate marches and strikes.

Closely connected to this are investigations into “the role of strategic agency” (Jung 2019:

4). This host of literature emphasizes “the purposive exertion of individuals and groups who attempt to change existing norms and rules in the sphere of politics or generate new norms and persuade a mass of norm leaders (states) to embrace new norms” (ibid.). In other words, this purposive agency could be seen as a strategy applied by norm entrepreneurs – actors causing or creating new norms to emerge – to steer the direction of diffusion and speed up the progression through the stages of the norm-life cycle. In the light of this, I shall point out work by Keck & Sikkink (1998; 1999) that has praised “the increasingly crucial role of nonstate actors in world politics”, which has been compressed to a group of quickly expanding scholarship concerned with what can be summarized under the umbrella label of transnational advocacy networks (TAN) (Jung 2019: 5).

Figure 1: Finnemore & Sikkink (1998: 896)

As will be seen in the next three sub-sections, the underlying theoretical provisions of Constructivism – including concepts and approaches to the study of identity, norms, and agency – are setting up the epistemological foundations of this thesis.

2.2 The Environmental State

Concerned with the relationship between IR research and CC, Underdal (2017: 176) presents us with a research agenda by conceptualizing the link between these two research areas. He proposes to mix top-down approaches of states working (multilaterally) to study and counter CC, with an emphasis on decentralized grassroot-approaches to facilitate such behavior. As will be seen later, Denmark perfectly fits this agenda.

The above is connected to a set of literature concerned with the study of the environmental state, a concept that has been at the center of the study of global environmental politics for decades (Duit et al. 2016; Gough 2016; Mol 2016; Purdon 2016; Russel 2019; Boström & Mol 2018; Eckersley 2020). The problem with this concept is that there is no consensus on what it means to be an environmental state. While some scholars refer to the concept as ecological state or eco-welfare state, the mainstream terminology is the “the environmental state”. In a way, despite the lack of agreed-upon definition and terminology, scholars usually refer to the same object of study. Thus, in this thesis, the various terms for this concept will be used interchangeably. Additionally, although there is much debate about the definition of the environmental state, I will follow the most applied and basic version of the concept advanced by Duit et al. (2016: p. 5–6):

[The environmental state is] a state that possesses a significant set of institutions and practices dedicated to the management of the environment and societal-environmental interactions [and which] has specialized administrative, regulatory, financial and knowledge structures that mark out a distinctive sphere of governmental activity.

In a sense, Denmark itself could somewhat be considered as an environmental state. Discussing

the history and development of the environmental state, Denmark – like many other Western

countries – has undergone significant changes to its socio-environmental structure as a way to

deal with the imperatives of CC. The rise and institutionalization of the environmental state

started in 1960/70 and lasted until the 1990s and can be seen as the first phase of the

environmental state development, defined by “an independent realm of law, policies,

administration, and regulation to clean up the environment” (Gough 2016: pp. 32-33). The

second phase of environmental state development, as argued by many scholars (Bäckstrand et

al. 2017; Boström & Hallström 2010; Krish 2017; Kuyper et al. 2017; Mol 2016 & 2018;

Wurzel et al. 2019), started in the 1990s and could be described as stagnation and the relative decline of the environmental state. This phase of decline was most likely caused by the globalization of environmental governance and the increasing number of stakeholders involved in climate political matters, making the need for environmental states somewhat obsolete.

However, despite agreeing with the notion that the environmental nation-state has been in decline for over two decades now, this is seen to be only true for certain areas of governance (Mol 2018: pp. 135-137). Thus, the above-mentioned scholars have argued for the emergence of a third phase in the evolution of the environmental state.

In a 2016 special issue of Environmental Politics, mentioned scholars worked to revitalize the study of the environmental state as the “most recent incarnation of the modern state”

(Hammond & Hasknost: 2020). Arguing for the importance of the state to achieve our climate ambitions it is contended that research shall “bring the state back in to research on environmental politics and policy” as it is the most important tool to reach our internationally agreed-upon targets (Duit et al. 2016: 2). But why is the nation-state so important? As Duit et al. (2016: 3) put it, the fact that states incorporate resources and power to control “political, economic, and social interactions, maintain legal frameworks (including systems of property rights) backed by coercive power, and deploy significant economic and administrative resources through taxation/expenditure and their bureaucratic apparatus” makes them the best tool to fight CC. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the state can successfully build a bridge between the domestic and international political order (ibid.).

Moving beyond the discussion of environmental states, the next section of the literature considers the difficulties of nation-states to move back into the forefront of climate governance as a result of the so-called glass ceiling of socio-ecological transformation. In essence, acting as norm entrepreneurs, civil society actors could contribute to the breaking of such glass ceiling by forcing governments to act against CC, thus bringing the environmental state back into focus.

2.3 The Glass Ceiling of Socio-Ecological Transformation

A special 2020 issue of Environmental Politics concerns itself with the environmental state and the question of how to achieve deep socio-ecological transformation (Hammond & Hausknost 2020; Hausknost 2020; Blühdorn 2020; Douglas 2020, Pellizzoni 2020, Hatzisavvidou 2020;

Koch 2020, Ahvenharju 2020; Machin 2020). In agreement with the above argumentation, the

emphasis is set on the need to recenter the nation-state as a vehicle for the management of CC

and environmental governance. As such the authors discussed in this section propose that the

state needs to become a more central figure in climate politics while stressing that it can only

“truly” do so by moving beyond the constraints of social externalities (meaning the protection of its citizens from CC) and focusing more on genuinely saving our environment.

Accordingly, advanced environmental states are doing quite well when looking at studies such as the Environmental Performance Index (EPI). This is particularly true if we look at categories measuring threats to human health. However, the situation looks much different when looking at other categories. For example, the same developed countries that score high in the “Environmental Health” category are substantially worse when we look at their

“Ecosystem Vitality”, which includes issues ranging from emissions, global and national biome protection, fish stocks, or the percentage of tree cover (Hausknost & Hammond 2020:

pp. 3-4). In other words, the central assumption is that – since the initial creation of the environmental state – today’s environmental states are generally able to “shield their citizens from environmental harm but have had much less success in minimizing their negative impact on the earth system, and in particular on the breaching of crucial planetary boundaries such as climate change and biodiversity loss” (ibid.). This problem has been diagnosed by the authors motioned above as the “glass ceiling of socio-ecological transformation”. Hausknost &

Hammond (2020: 3) provide a basic definition for this concept:

[It is] a structural barrier that marks the line until which environmental reform is compatible with functional requirements of the state and beyond which this compatibility gives way to functional tension, conflict, and outright contradiction.

The mentioned socio-ecological transformation is even compared with “the Great Transformation of feudal agrarian society to industrial capitalism”, meaning that breaking the glass ceiling will eventually lead to “the emergence of an entirely new model of society, including its political institutions and normative structures” (Hausknost & Hammond 2020:

13). Accordingly, the latest article of Robyn Eckersley (2020) is yet another missing link in the study of the environmental state and socio-ecological transformation. For example, she discusses the limits and potential of the nation-state in orchestrating sustainability transitions from the standpoint of critical theory. Eckersley emphasizes that states are the best place to facilitate socio-ecological transformation needed to reach fully-fledged green state status.

Especially given state authority, countries have the power “to regulate, tax, spend, redistribute, and procure tasks in ways that are more or less responsive and accountable to citizens”

(Eckersley 2020: 17). However, as mentioned in the introduction, not all states are willing or

able to make this transformation happen. It is even implied that, like the above assumption,

states and today’s society might not be able to change, even if they wanted to. Still, Eckersley

affirms that there is hope in applying conjunctural analysis as a means of determining opportunities in particular state-society complexes that will be incremental to performing this transformation. Additionally, it is proposed that critical problem-solving by thinking about

“how best to develop these opportunities to initiate new transition pathways or amplify and accelerate the momentum of transitions that are already underway” (ibid.).

As has been observed in the case of Denmark, one way we can utilize both strategies to break the glass ceiling is for civil society to take up duty and push the state towards acting more sustainably. Subsequently, the following section of this literature review centers on Social Movement Theory. In particular, I will emphasize the power and agency that climate activists and ENGOs – like in the case of the Danish climate law – have to break the glass ceiling and support countries in their endeavor to become modern environmental sates.

2.4 Social Movement Theory

Similar to the central question of this research proposal, also Frickel & Davidson (2004: 90) set out to find answers to the question “how is environmental sustainability to be achieved?”

by arguing that justifications to becoming more environmentally attuned strictly depend on the

“types of linkages between nation-states and actors within civil society”.

Together with the work of Keck & Sikkink (1998; 1999), the above-described links between civil society and governments as well as the increased importance of nonstate actors lead us to the logical next step for further investigation. How has scholarship theorized and conceptualized the agency of non-state actors and their influence on policy outcomes? Here, we must look towards Social Movement Theory. For example, Nulman (2015) successfully lays out concepts and methodologies for researching and analyzing social movements in connection to climate policy. He adopts a definition of social movements advocated by Rootes (2007) and describes them as “a loose, noninstitutionalized network of informal interactions that may include, as well as individuals and groups who have no organizational affiliation, organizations of varying degrees of formality, that are engaged in collective action motivated by shared identity or concern” (Nulman 2015: 2). Nulman also adds that climate movements have the general objective of “[reducing] the negative impacts of climate change on people and the planet” (ibid.).

In sum, it is argued that civil society is of crucial value to the green transition of nation-

states. The following segment will present an analytical framework that will attempt to put into

words how the Danish environmental movement was able to achieve some progress in the

breaking of the glass ceiling of Denmark’s green transition by advocating the return of the environmental state to climate politics.

2.5 Analytical Framework

Social Constructivist Theory gives us the ontological and epistemological framework that can help us analyze data in a way that filters out the importance of certain values, norms, and identities. As such, the Danish case revolves around narratives and norms connected to humanity's relationship with nature. Denmark proves to be a case in which norms of sustainability, climate action, and green transition could be seen as some of the prime objectives of Danish society. These are also goals that are central to Denmark’s climate movement and simultaneously interconnected to the research question of this thesis. Moreover, theoretical assumptions of the norm-lifecycle can be expressive of finding and explaining changes in the mentioned values and norms of people and how these changes affect patterns of behaviors. Here, strategic agency and the role of non-state actors in attempting to influence the normative landscape of a country through identifying critical conjunctures to find the right opportunities for change and applying critical problem-solving to find solutions and promote change is particularly interesting to this thesis. Accordingly, Social Movement Theory will be used to filter out the objectives of the Danish climate movement along with strategies utilized to reach their goals. In other words, by identifying opportunities for change, creating, and promoting solutions, and applying various tactics to achieve their goals, social movements can effectively become norm entrepreneurs and structurally influence and change societal behavior through the creation of new policies and patterns of behavior.

Now we must translate the theoretical assumptions above into an analytical framework as means to collect data, which then can be analyzed in a way that can present an answer to the research question of this thesis. The method of this thesis will thus predominantly focus on Nulman’s (2015) framework. This framework was specifically developed for the study of environmental social movements and their ability to achieve green policy outcomes.

When investigating the role and influence of social movements on policy outcomes,

especially as proposed with the case of Denmark, we must define how outcomes of civil society

are characterized as well as what variables lead to the achievement of such outcomes. For

Nulman (2015: 3), “outcomes” of climate change activists in their endeavors to achieve

particular goals, which are loosely tied to the overarching objective mentioned above, are equal

to “successes”. As has been recognized by Amenta and Caren (2006), one type of outcome that

has been at the center of many social movements is concerned with government policy and

convincing policymakers to use the power and resources of the state to address particular issues. Hence, Nulman proposes to look at three different aspects for the study of social movement influence on policy outcomes: (i) “What policy outcome the social movement has achieved?”; (ii) “When it had the opportunity to do so?”; and (iii) “How the movement was able to achieve its objectives?”. These are the three questions central to Nulman’s framework.

In sum, while building on Nulman’s framework, Chapter 3 of this thesis will lay out a

research design adjusted from his approach to fit the type of research question asked as well as

the type of case proposed.

3. Chapter: Method

This chapter of the thesis presents the methodological framework and research design used to conduct investigations and collect data necessary to answer the proposed research question.

Consequently, this chapter will first discuss the reasoning behind the choice of the case and method of data collection, before moving on to consider the selection of interviewees and interview structure. Subsequently, the chapter will follow up with a presentation of the operationalization of the analytical framework and close with a short display of potential shortcomings and delimitations to this research design.

3.1 Case Selection

As already discussed in the introduction to this thesis, the case of Denmark’s climate law and the process of how it came to be is unique when compared to other contemporary climate laws of developed European nation-states. Not only does it have stronger GHG-emission reduction targets, but it is also broadened to commit Denmark to become a green leader as it is supposed to support others in their green transition and have sustainability as a core principle anchored in everything the country does. In a way, the development of Denmark’s Climate Act could be described as “a critical case […] that falls outside of our theoretical understanding of political phenomena or has qualities that look highly different than other similar cases” (Roselle &

Spray 2016: 36).

Another consideration that makes Denmark an exceptionally interesting case, is the fact that the process from the idea of a petition to provide Denmark with its first climate law – and force the country to fully commit it to the Paris Agreement – was remarkably driven by the action of Danish civil society. Above all, it was the domestic climate movement that managed to put their differences aside, build an alliance and create a platform (i.e. the citizens' proposal “Dansk Klimalov Nu”) that voiced the demands of the Danish population, which was fed up with inactivity of the previous governments and wanted to finally see climate action taken.

3.2 Choice of Methods for Data Collection

Previous research has generally gravitated around the use of quantitative methodological

approaches. However, there is a multitude of benefits that arise from the less explored

utilization of qualitative methodological approaches within this subject area. Accordingly, one

can investigate the opinions, values, and behavior of a chosen population by relying on sources

and central figures representing such a population. Hence, instead of using quantitative

methods, this thesis utilizes a research design based on qualitative semi-structured expert

interviews.

The most pressing reason for selecting a qualitative research design over a quantitative method is that the type of research question that this thesis investigates is calling for a more interpretive answer. This includes not only finding out detailed hard facts about the case at hand but also looking at the norms, values, and broader narratives that motivated certain actions and resulted in the outcome that is to be explained. Again, I want to emphasize that “it all depends on the question” one is trying to answer (Roselle & Spray 2016: 35). In this vein, the nature of the case and focus on actors in their ability to influence policy outcomes enabled me to favor qualitative over quantitative methods. In this regard, it is important to open the black box of the nation-state and to find hidden meanings, motivations, and behavioral foundations that created the context for certain factors to produce the outcome of the Danish case. This is something that numbers and statistical data just could not capture as easily. Moreover, it is difficult to find secondary sources and data that could answer the research question of this thesis as the topic of social movement influence on climate policy is somewhat understudied.

Thus, conducting qualitative research in the form of semi-structured expert interviews gave me the ability to obtain “detailed, often specialized information” (Halperin & Heath 2017: 286).

Accordingly, with interviews, especially in the proposed case, it is important “to gain valid knowledge and understanding about what the person in question thinks” concerning the topic that is being explored (ibid.).

Additionally, I decided to do face-to-face interviews as it is “the best data-collection type for open-ended questions and in-depth exploration” (Halperin and Heath 2017: 286). This allowed me to gain access to detailed information and made it possible for me to explore the case in all its complexity, based on insights of experts with intricate knowledge of the situation.

However, one problem I encountered was that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, I was forced to move these interviews to a Corona-safe online space. Nevertheless, this was a blessing in disguise as moving the interviews online helped to make my research process more flexible, by making my research less time and cost-intensive and giving me access to parts of the Danish population that I could probably not have reached geographically or individuals that likely would not have agreed to have an interview with me otherwise.

In addition to the choice of doing qualitative research in the form of face-to-face expert-

interviews online, selecting the right form and structure of the interviews that would be

appropriate to collect data, I chose to do semi-structured interviews as this form of investigation

is “a powerful research instrument which can help a researcher understand people’s

perceptions, feelings, opinions, experiences, understandings, values, beliefs, attitudes,

emotions, behavior, formal and informal roles, and relationships” (Halperin & Heath 2017:

290). Utilizing semi-structured interviews and combining complex and simple questions “can give greater insight into the meanings of a subject’s experiences” and thus give as much validity to the results as possible (Halperin & Heath 2017: 289). Furthermore, the interview questions were standardized to some extent to strengthen the reliability and make the findings more generalizable. Yet, I still had the flexibility to change questions and ask follow-up probes depending on the course interviews would take or topic areas that interviewees seemed to be especially knowledgeable of.

3.3 Selection of Informants

In addition to choosing qualitative semi-structured interviews, I also determined that it would be very valuable for the investigation of the research puzzle to talk to experts. For example, interviewing experts that have “specialized knowledge or expertise relating to a particular issue”. According to Halperin & Heath (2017: 298), talking to experts has three broad purposes:

(a) “To obtain new information; (b) “to confirm the accuracy of information that has been collected from other sources”; And (c) “to make inferences about the beliefs or actions of a wider population”. In connection to this, one could claim that conducting expert interviews produces data that “can be analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively” (Halperin & Heath 2017: 300). Although it is important to mention that “the validity of expert-opinion data will depend on the quality of experts” (ibid.). Hence, I had to make sure to carefully select the right individuals to participate in my semi-structured expert interviews. Accordingly, I identified four types of experts that would ideally participate in my research.

First, for obvious reasons I interviewed Environmental NGOs and actors that broadly represent the Danish climate movement. This type of expert is at the center of my research as it is hypothesized through the research question that it was the environmental movement in Denmark and their activities that were essential to the adoption of the climate law. There are 11 NGOs that were involved in creating the initial petition for the Danish Climate Law, who were united under a coordinating organization called Group 92. Initial contact was made with these 11 NGOs as well as a selection of other smaller organizations. Subsequently, I managed to conduct interviews with four NGOs – Expert 1, 2, 3, 9.

Second, Researchers and Academics, especially within the field of social sciences, were

important assets in my interviews because they did not only observe the development of the

climate law firsthand but have also studied the topic themselves and are familiar with the

analysis of political processes. In connection to this, I have read an open letter endorsing

climate activism and protests in favor of the climate law featuring 174 Danish researchers and

academics as signatories. I contacted all the signatories and managed to receive three positive responses – henceforth Expert 4, 5, 7. It is important to note that I interviewed these experts not only based on their knowledge of the process but because they have all used their position as researchers to support the adoption of the climate law.

Thirdly, as civil society was very well represented in my research, there was a clear need to talk to the other side of the spectrum, the Danish Industry. The Danish government has created climate partnerships with companies in 13 different industry sectors. After contacting all of the thirteen companies connected to the climate partnerships, I only managed to reel in one participant in this expert category – Expert 6. One of the apparent reasons for the absence of participation from the side of society could be that the industry is generally seen as one of the major sources of pollution and so clearly opposed to the merits of being restricted by a national climate law.

Finally, the last type of expert I interviewed was Governmental Agencies and Ministries. As part of the climate law, the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Utilities created a Citizens Assembly of Climate Change involving 99 Danish citizens to work on reviewing Denmark’s climate work. This Assembly is facilitated by the Technology Council of Denmark, which I reached out to. One person –Expert 8 – agreed to talk to me. I also reached out to the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Utilities as well as other governmental agencies or political parties and received only little to no response at all. Given that the first annual review of the Danish Climate Council (Klimarådet) showed a negative grading of the governmental climate action following the law, it is no surprise that it was difficult to get a hold of someone in this category.

On the practical end of things, I would like to mention that all informants received an informed consent form as well as an information letter with details about my research project before the interviews (Appendix 2). The same goes for informing participants about the anonymity of their identity and statements. Anonymity allows interviewees to freely voice their opinions without having to be afraid of negative repercussions. This increases the chances to receive truthful statements and strengthens the validity of the information collected. As the interviews were based on an interview guide (Appendix 3) that was adopted from Nulman (2015) and his framework, the length of the interviews also depended on the amount and types of questions asked. Interviews lasted 45 minutes on average but could sometimes last as long as 1,5 hours.

Finally, after conducting the interviews I used the transcription tool “Otter.Ai” to transcribe

the audio files of my interviews. Although this program has a quite accurate turnout rate when

it comes to transcribing audio files, it was still necessary for me to edit transcriptions and check them for mistakes. To code the transcripts (Appendix 4) of my expert interviews, I used the qualitative data analysis tool “NVIVO”. Coding is a process where you organize and filter qualitative data in a way that highlights important factors, and which essentially unveils interconnections between these factors (Halperin & Heath 2017; Lamont 2015). Using Nulman’s framework I applied factors and categories adjusted from his approach to making up themes and codes. These themes and codes are in correspondence with the categories of questions used in the interview guide.

The next section will explain how data, collected through the method proposed in this chapter, will be analyzed to draw conclusions about the role and influence of the Danish climate movement on the adoption of Denmark’s Climate Act.

3.4 Operationalization of the Analytical Framework

Nulman suggests that we must ask three types of questions (the “what, when, and how?” of social movement outcomes) as a tool to measure the real impact that climate movements have on the adoption of climate policies. The first type of question refers to “what outcomes are achieved by the movement?”, while the second focuses on “when movements have the ability to influence policy?”, and the third discusses “how the outcomes are achieved?” (Nulman 2015:

pp. 4-7).

The when-question is centered on political opportunities or critical conjunctures, which were crucial for social movements to influence the adoption of policies. This thesis summarized Nulman’s second question to concentrate on two independent variables. The Political Context in Denmark will be discussed in the analysis as the first major influencing variable. It discusses the unique characteristics of the Danish case, which presented the domestic climate movement with the perfect setting to exercise influence. The Danish Policy Window of 2019 is the second major influencing variable and considers various aspects that together made up the perfect moment in time for the Danish environmental movement to act towards fulfilling their goals.

Altogether, when reviewing these two variables it is important to remember that the when-

question is a matter of circumstances and political opportunities that are constraint by time and

situational conditions. Oftentimes, the contingency of these factors cannot be directly

influenced by social movements. Rather they can be used by a movement to have a greater

impact as they might boost a campaign's political strength. Accordingly, political opportunities

can be defined as “political contexts, processes, and structures [that] help shape the abilities of

a movement to influence policy” (Nulman 2015: 87).

The third major variable focuses on the how-question and tries to capture ways in which the Danish environmental movement was able to directly influence the observed policy outcome.

For Nulman, this question is sub-divided into two further indicators: (i) strategic leadership and (ii) mechanisms of policy outcomes. However, for the sake of simplicity, these two factors will be discussed in the analysis as one variable: The Strategic Agency of the Danish Climate Movement. Strategic agency mostly concerns itself with decisions taken by the climate movement in terms of strategies, tactics, and campaigns that were purposefully employed in the hope to get the climate law adopted. This includes decisions taken by the Danish climate movement regarding relations with other important actors as well as tactical decisions that were utilized to maximize the influence of the movement on the policy outcome.

After exploring the influence and impact of the independent variables, I will summarize how they facilitated the role and influence of the Danish climate movement on the adoption of Denmark’s climate law by returning to Nulman’s what-question. Thanks to his Policy Outcome Model (POM), I was able to avoid the reliance on rather old-fashioned binary - Yes/No - answers to whether the movement was able to influence the observed policy outcome or not.

As a result, this makes the answer to the proposed research question of this thesis more holistic and nuanced.

In sum, the above framework will hopefully yield results that can answer the research question of my thesis and, at the same time, lead to further contribute to broader IR research as well as the nexus between recentering the environmental state, CC mitigation, and social movement theory.

3.5 Limitations to the Method

It is the job of a political scientist to not only figure out how to answer questions about real- life political phenomena, using a research design developed to do so. We also must address issues connected to the reliability and validity of the knowledge produced this way to lead the way for further research. Thus, it is only natural to not only present the strengths of my research design but also inform the reader about possible weaknesses and shortcomings of the proposed research method. I would like to point out some issues linked to “bias and threats to the validity and reliability” of my research method (Halperin & Heath: 290):

a. “All people come to an interview with biases and prejudices”;

b. Sometimes being interviewed triggers the “interview effect” in informants, meaning that

they have a “tendency […] to give more socially acceptable answers or answers they

think the interviewer wants”;

c. At times it can also happen that the “biases and prejudices of the interviewers may also distort the interview process” - even unwillingly;

d. Finally, people may not always tell the truth as the real answers might infringe them in some way or as they might not be comfortable to answer to specific questions.

Despite these disadvantages, I would like to stress that the benefits of the proposed research

design clearly outweigh the weaknesses. This being said, all one can ever do is to be aware of

these issues and try best not to fall into traps of bias or threats to validity and reliability.

4. Chapter: Analysis

The analysis of this thesis will be presented in four parts. The Political Context of Denmark will be discussed as the first major influential factor in creating the policy outcome of the Danish case. It centers around indicators such as strong social cohesion and close relations among various actor-groups involved in the process leading up to the adoption of the climate law, which certainly aided the Danish environmental movement in their endeavors. Secondly, The Danish Policy Window of 2019 is the second major decisive factor in explaining the case and answering the research question. It is ultimately about various aspects that are intertwined and overlap in a manner that constituted the perfect timing for the climate movement to make a move. Together, the interplay between these two major variables facilitated the third and last major finding of this research project, which is The Strategic Agency of the Danish Climate Movement. This is the most important factor as it focuses on the effective character of the social mobilization around the cause triggered by the strategic agency of the Danish climate movement and its use of various tactics and relational decisions that led to the adoption of Denmark’s Climate Act. The final section of this chapter will attempt to conclude the answer to the research question of this thesis by returning to the POM and explaining The Role and Influence of the Danish Environmental Movement on the Adoption of Denmark’s Climate Act.

4.1 The Political Context of Denmark

The Political Context of Denmark has been described by several interviewees as a web of close connections between various actors, and relative cohesion among Danish society. These two indicators, together with the overall public opinion, form the political context of Denmark. This political context will be explored in the following sub-sections as the first major finding of this thesis.

4.1.1 Social Cohesion

Denmark is a small country with little distance between the top and bottom of its political arena. Politicians, and the government in general, have been mentioned to be very open to a civil society with great ability and a long tradition to listen to what citizens have to say. Thus, something that seems peculiar to Scandinavia, and above all Denmark, is that the country exhibits high levels of social cohesion, or “the extent of connectedness and solidarity among groups in society” (Manca 2014). This is also supported by secondary data that shows Denmark among the countries with the highest levels of social cohesion (Caixa Bank Research).

Consequently, this means that there is little distance between the Danish people – and their

opinions – no matter the social class, ethnic background, occupation, religion, or educational levels.

As Expert 4 explains, “Denmark is a consensus society” that is known for working in a way where “no law is passed without everyone knowing what is in it” and agreeing upon it. This creates “close ties” between the government, the industry, the climate movement, and the general population and tells us that, in terms of perceptions of the climate movement, the high levels of social cohesion are a central explanation behind why it was so easy for various groups of actors to come together around this issue and agree on a solution. Also, Expert 3 states that the “cooperation between the NGOs and the government in Denmark is unique to Denmark and Nordic countries”, based on the social composition of Scandinavian countries leading to a situation where “distance between politicians, and activists, and even NGOs is very small”.

This was emphasized many times and seems to be of crucial importance in influencing the observed outcome. In this regard, it was interesting to hear that Expert 3 stresses that the conversation between the climate movement and the government is very “sober”, giving the movement easy access to policymakers and opportunities to pressure the government to take action against CC (Expert 3). Expert 7 agrees, emphasizing that, in Denmark, it is “tradition to talk to everybody as a politician or government [and] that you have a dialogue with the surrounding society, where NGOs have a natural and integrative role to play”. I would like to emphasize that these factors significantly aided the climate movement in participating in policy-making through informal as well as formal veins of influence.

In sum, the above arguments connect very well to the fact that civil society and the climate movement in Denmark was found to have greater chances of influencing the adoption of the climate law based on the opportunity of open political participation and the easy access to important actor groups of Danish society.

4.1.2 Public Opinion

When it comes to public opinion in Denmark, a trend that has been observed by many of the

interviewees (Expert 1, 4, 8, 9) was that dissatisfaction with inaction against CC – especially

from the side of the government – had been steadily increasing for many years leading up to

2019. This is something the climate movement in Demark could take advantage of. One

instance of the power of public opinion is to exert pressure on the government using opinion

polls. According to Expert 2 & 3, polls showed an ever-increasing interest in the public’s

approval for climate action, which was translated into an explosive upsurge in support of

Denmark adopting its first climate law as soon as the petition for it was published. As Expert

1 puts it, “I think there is no doubt that 2018 and particularly 2019 marked a substantial change in public attitudes towards climate change and the need for climate action”. Associated with this change of attitudes is that all Experts agreed with the notion of a more general normative shift that had happened in Denmark in connection to CC.

Two further aspects were often discussed, in connection to public preference. Firstly, something that was specified by all Experts was that the Danish population was “fed up with”

the inaction against CC by two consecutive governments. However, in addition to this, Experts 2 and 3 expressed that Danes are also more used to give up some of their individual rights for the larger population based on fulfilling duties of social/intergenerational justice. One example of this is that Scandinavian countries are used to live under bigger economic constraints imposed by the government as well as paying higher taxes as in other countries. This makes them more likely to give up personal freedoms for the greater good. Secondly, Experts 3 & 8 indicated that the Danish population is also more likely to adhere to scientific knowledge. For example, when Danish people are presented with scientific facts about CC or when they read open letters signed by various researchers and academics stressing the importance of climate action, they will agree and say, “why don’t we just do it?” (Expert 8).

The shift in attitudes is something that was not taken lightly by Danish politicians, especially considering that they depend on votes to get re-elected. Consequently, with the change in public attitudes, Denmark’s political arena saw the outbreak of party competition, driven by the election and public opinion, with parties trying to show that they are “greener” than the rest (Expert 2, 3). At the same time, this gamble also meant that parties were forced to outbid one another in terms of having the most ambitious climate goals. This is especially interesting, as Expert 9 points out:

If you look at the citizens’ proposal, it is not including any specific climate target in 2030.

It just said that the Climate Council in Denmark should calculate what a reasonable Danish target should be, according to the global CO2 budgets. And then what happened in connection with the election process was that a lot of parties committed themselves to increasingly ambitious climate targets because they could see that the climate issue would become a major topic in the election.

Finally, Danish civil society is also portrayed as particularly open and enthusiastic in being

vocal about their opinions and demands (Expert 6, 7). Expert 9 supports this argument stating

that “Denmark has a stronger tradition of public participation [in political processes] than some

other countries”. Some would even say that it is almost traditional to go on the streets and

demonstrate as means to communicate demands to the government, which is usually well received and taken seriously by the latter. Put simply, public opinion matters in Denmark.

Accordingly, public opinion aided the creation of conditions that were perfect for the climate movement to exert influence. As has been discussed, the Danish population generally supported the climate movement and their proposal for the establishment of a national climate law. As will be seen in later sections, this opportunity was successfully used by the movement during the 2019 elections to put more pressure on political parties and increase party competition.

4.2 The Danish Policy Window of 2019

One thing that was agreed upon by all participants of my research was that 2019 represented a special year, where many things came together to open a policy window that was exploited by the Danish climate movement to get their demands heard and effectively make their citizens' proposal into a law. Thus, this section will discuss The Danish Policy Window of 2019 as the second major finding of my thesis.

4.2.1 The implementation of “Dansk Klimalov Nu”

It all started back in 2016, when Jens Friis Lund (a professor of Copenhagen University) and Tarjei Haaland (a climate and energy policy adviser of Greenpeace Nordic) first calculated Denmark’s carbon budget. Independently from one another, they came up with the need for the country to adopt a target of 70% decrease in emissions by 2030 if it were to stay within the mark of remaining below 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels as proposed by the Paris agreement (Grantham Research Institute). This was taken up by the Danish Group 92, “a coalition of Danish NGOs working on issues related to the environment and development”, which started working on creating the petition “Dansk Klimalov Nu” (Danish Climate Law Now”) in 2016 (92 Gruppen; Expert 1, 3, 9).

In Denmark, these citizens’ proposals (“Borgerforslag”) need 50.000 signatories among the Danish population (that have the right to vote) within 180 days for a proposal to be submitted to Denmark’s parliament (“Folketing”). There, the citizens’ proposal is then presented as a resolution, treated, and voted on by the parliament. If the resolution is adopted by the Folketing, it will become a parliamentary resolution that will most likely end up as legislation (Folketinget Borgerforslag).

The aim of “Dansk Klimalov Nu” was to force the government to abide by the 2015 Paris

Agreement and finally take action. Additionally, the movement released a campaign plan

around the same time as the petition, to promote their efforts and maximize the societal impact

of their policy solution. In other words, the movement strategically planned how to best promote the petition to get the climate law passed. As will be seen later, this included various decisions and tactics that were boosted by the right timing as well as the political context.

As Experts (1, 3, 4, 7, 9) stressed, formulating a demand that perfectly facilitated the public attitude and giving people something easily understandable and real to grasp onto, gave the climate movement the mandate to pressure the government to take climate action. Again, this connection between public opinion and the citizens’ proposal, shows how the climate movement identified opportunities and steered public discourse by creating a solution to a well- known problem. Some could even argue that by doing so, the movement acted as a norm entrepreneur. In a way, it did not only create and promote a norm but also controlled and advanced the normative shift of Danish society in accordance with sustainable values and a firm grip on the situation.

Upon publication of the petition in January 2019, the proposal gained the support of 65.000 signatories within two weeks – an all-time record. And although the petition did not make it in the first parliamentary vote (due to a combination of technicalities/wording and the leading center-right party rejecting some aspects of the law), this was quickly changed when the policy window widened later that year and the climate law was made into a parliamentary resolution after a new government came into power following the general Danish elections in May, and passed as a law in the fall of 2019.

One thing that needs mentioning here is that, even though it was incremental that the

environmental movement provided this policy solution, it has been acknowledged by Expert 3

that the climate movement in Denmark was not able to “control the exact result of it, let alone

the implementation”. One example of this lack of control is that the current government came

out with a debated climate plan that would basically circumvent the short-term targets of the

law. The so-called “hockey-stick” approach (Figure 1) can be explained as having less strict

reduction goals in the first couple of years and later relying on (not yet developed)

technological advancements to reach the 70% target by 2030. However, many scientists and

environmental organizations, as almost all the Experts reassure, agree that this is just an excuse

of the government for staying inactive and avoid keeping their election promises.

4.2.2 Broader Issues Influencing the 2019 Policy Window

Perhaps the most impactful mechanism at play, when it comes to the creation of the perfect timing for the Danish climate movement reaching its goals, is the power of the global climate movement. The critical momentum and the far-reaching influence that the global movement had on the mindset of people and the public attitudes towards CC was incremental to the success of the Danish climate movement.

What else has been more often at the center of discussions about CC since 2018, if not Greta Thunberg and her Fridays For Future movement? Together with globally reaching climate marches as well as climate strikes conducted by climate activists everywhere, the global movement created a wave of sentiment in favor of climate action among the Danish population.

According to Experts (1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9), some of the reasons why this was so sympathetic and managed to create (“general”, “growing”, “global”, “huge”, “massive”, “public”) awareness and support across all segments of Danish society is the sheer number of climate demonstrations that took place in 2018/19, the number participants in these events, as well as the fact that the people that partook in these climate events were sharing their thoughts and opinions with people in their proximity - friends, parents, colleagues, or even online platforms.

In connection to that, Expert 1 mentioned that these global “youth movements and Greta Thunberg managed to become the voice of a generation that really had not articulated their concerns about climate change before, [which] reached very deep into many parts of society that had not before been activated or mobilized”. This was surely aiding the climate movement and taken advantage of by the more established NGOs in their goal to get their citizens'

Figure 1: Hockey-Stick Approach

proposal adopted as a law. Expert 7 argued that the momentum built up by the global movement

“pushed climate change to the top of the agenda” of the election in 2019.

This so-called Thunberg-Effect was seen by all Experts as a significant game-changer when it comes to gaining public support in favor of climate action internationally and domestically.

However, having broadly the same overall objective, it is difficult to distinguish where the influence of the global movement ends and where that of the Danish begins. Nevertheless, as agreed by some Experts (4, 7, 8), it is safe to assume that the latter was fortunate enough to lean on the success of the former.

The summer of 2018 in Denmark has seen one of the worst droughts in the country’s history.

This only plays into the narrative that the global, as well as domestic environmental movement, sought to change ever since the initial plans to create a climate law were forged in 2016. The droughts played into the fact that people increasingly began to see tangible connections between climate warming and the negative consequences it has on the environment. This only boosted the ongoing mobilization throughout 2018 and 2019. It was even acknowledged by some of the Experts (2, 3, 6) that these droughts were actively used to frame the issue in favor of the Danish movement as they were woven into the narrative of governmental CC inaction.

For example, satellite pictures were taken of dried-out lakes, dying trees, and imagery of decaying nature, which would usually be filled with lush green landscapes, was used by the movement to call upon the population’s sentiment for the environment and put even more pressure on the government.

Finally, in 2019, Denmark had a major parliamentary election. Altogether, the above developments culminated into an immense call for action among the Danish people that lifted the issue of CC and the government’s inability to do something about it to new heights. This ultimately led to CC pushing immigration off the top spot among election issues and transformed the 2019 elections into The Climate Elections. Consequently, Expert 7 mentioned that the 2019 elections will go down in history, while Expert 6 emphasized that the events of 2018/19 culminated into a “perfect storm because all things happened at the perfect timing”.

In other words, it can be assumed that 2019 presented a policy window and the right time for

the environmental movement to influence Denmark’s climate policy as all puzzle pieces

seemed to perfectly work together to maximize the movement’s impact. Once more, the fact

that the elections transformed into climate elections based on public attitudes indicate a shift

towards increased support of the same norms promoted by the climate movement. The

movement knew about this shift and was quick to use the policy window to push for the

adoption of the climate law.