A Socio-Economic Analysis

AGRARIAN CHANGE IN THE CEN L RAINLANDS:

SUDAN

A Socio-Economic Analysis

Edited by

M.A. Mohamed Salih

Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala 1987

ISBN 91-7106-270-X

Nordiska afrikainstitutet, 1987 Printed in Sweden by

Uppsala University, 1987

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Map of t h e Sudan A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s Introduction

M.A. Mohamed Salih

Tapping t h e Agrarian S e c t o r f o r Economic Growth:

T h e Sudan Experience Ibrahim A. Elbadawi

E c o n o m i c S t r a t e g y a n d Household Viability in a Dry Savannah 36 Agricultural Society: B e r t i of D a r f u r

Ladislav Holy

Agricultural Intensification a n d R e s o u r c e Maintenance:

S o m e C a s e s f r o m Western Sudan Leif 0. Manger

P o v e r t y Versus Affluence: T h e Fiasco of R a i n f e d Mechanized Agriculture in R e n k District:

Southern Sudan P a u l Wani G o r e

T h e T r a c t o r and t h e Plough:

T h e Sociological Dimension M.A. Mohamed Salih

National Ambivalence a n d E x t e r n a l Hegemony:

T h e Negligence of P a s t o r a l Nomads in t h e Sudan Abdel G h a f f a r M. Ahmed

Implications of 1983-1 9 8 5 F a m i n e on t h e R u r a l Sahel of t h e Sudan

Abdullahi O s m a n El T o m

F r o m R u r a l t o Urban Labour Markets:

T h e Derivation of t h e Shadow Wage R a t e a n d t h e Social R a t e of Discount f o r t h e Sudan

Eltingani S. Moharned

E G Y P T

C O N G O

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I a m m o s t g r a t e f u l t o m y c o l l e a g u e s a t t h e D e p a r t m e n t of Social Anthro- pology a n d Sociology, University of Khartoum, Sudan f o r a c c o m m o d a t i n g my l e a v e of a b s e n c e t o work o n t h i s book. T h e editing of t h e a r t i c l e s a n d t h e w r i t i n g of m y o w n a r t i c l e a n d t h e introduction w a s f a c i l i t a t e d by t h e g e n e r o u s r e s e a r c h g r a n t which I r e c e i v e d f r o m t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e of A f r i c a n Studies, Uppsala, Sweden. I t a k e t h i s opportunity t o e x p r e s s m y g r a t i t u d e t o a l l t h e s t a f f of t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r t h e i r g r a c i o u s help a n d co- o p e r a t i o n which c o n t r i b u t e d considerably t o t h e c o m p l e t i o n of t h i s work.

My t h a n k s a l s o g o t o a l l t h o s e who c o m m e n t e d o n t h e f i r s t d r a f t s of t h e a r t i c l e s f o r t h e i r suggestions a n d revisions. In t h e l a s t s t a g e s of pro- d u c t i o n I a m t h a n k f u l t o Mrs. P.A. P a l m e r f o r typing t h e f i n a l d r a f t and t o Dr. M a r g a r e t Mohamed Salih f o r reading a n d c o r r e c t i n g t h e proofs. All s h o r t c o m i n g s a r e n o n e t h e l e s s m y s o l e responsibility.

A s p e c i a l d e b t of g r a t i t u d e is d u e t o M a r g a r e t , m y wife, a n d o u r d a u g h t e r Hyat, f o r t h e i r p a t i e n c e a n d e n c o u r a g e m e n t during m y long periods of absence.

INTRODUCTION

M.A. Mohamed Salih

T h e c e n t r a l rainlands of t h e Sudan e m b r a c e t h e a r e a b e t w e e n Lat. 9" a n d 15" N o r t h a n d Long. 22" a n d 36" E a s t within t h e boundaries of t h e Re- public of t h e Sudan. This t e r r i t o r y r e p r e s e n t s a b o u t o n e t h i r d of t h e 2.5 million s q u a r e k i l o m e t r e s t o t a l a r e a of t h e c o u n t r y , a n d o v e r half of t h e 85.46 million a c r e s t o t a l a r a b l e land. F u r t h e r m o r e , under half of t h e 22 million t o t a l population of t h e Sudan l i v e in t h i s a r e a . B e t w e e n 8 0 a n d 8 5 per c e n t of t h e population is e n g a g e d in a g r i c u l t u r a l production w i t h only a b o u t 10 t o 15 per c e n t pursuing a p u r e n o m a d i c life. However, agro- pastoralism is t h e m o s t p r e v a l e n t e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y in t h e c e n t r a l rain- lands.

Agrarian c h a n g e in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands h a s been a c o n s e q u e n c e of t h e p e n e t r a t i o n of t h e m a r k e t e c o n o m y via t h e introduction of c a s h c r o p s especially c o t t o n , s e s a m e , groundnuts and hibiscus, a n d t h e expansion of large- scale m e c h a n i z e d schemes.' However, t r a d i t i o n a l a g r i c u l t u r e h a s r e m a i n e d t h e main e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y and is p r a c t i s e d by t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e r u r a l population. O n e of t h e striking f e a t u r e s of t h e a g r a r i a n s t r u c t u r e in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands is t h e obvious negligence of t h e small- s c a l e t r a d i t i o n a l p r o d u c e r s whose f a r m i n g t e c h n i q u e s a n d p r a c t i c e s have n o t b e e n improved d e s p i t e a n increasing p r e s s u r e on t h e m t o f e e d t h e m - selves a n d t o produce a surplus f o r e x c h a n g e a n d f o r e x p o r t t o t h e i n t e r - national m a r k e t . C o n t r a r y t o this, t h e m o d e r n mechanized f a r m i n g s e c t o r has been a c c o r d e d priority a n d provided with machinery, financial c r e d i t and b e t t e r m a r k e t i n g facilities. Whereas t h e m e c h a n i z e d f a r m i n g s e c t o r enjoys support in t e r m s of f a v o u r a b l e a g r i c u l t u r a l policies a n d provision of m o d e r n inputs, t h e t r a d i t i o n a l f a r m i n g s e c t o r is still based on f a m i l y labour, small- scale production a n d l i m i t e d c a p i t a l input. Nevertheless, t h e r e h a s b e e n increasing c o m p e t i t i o n b e t w e e n t h e t w o s e c t o r s of t h e a g r a r i a n s t r u c t u r e o v e r t h e land, labour, d e v e l o p m e n t a s s i s t a n c e a n d c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t in addition t o t h e i r unequal s t r u c t u r a l relationship in d e f o r m e d a n d f r a g m e n t e d local m a r k e t s .

T h e ill-planned expansion of t h e m e c h a n i z e d f a r m i n g s e c t o r h a s had

disastrous i m p a c t s on t h e t r a d i t i o n a l producers mainly through t h e t r a n s f e r of much of t h e i r labour t o t h e m o d e r n s e c t o r in r e t u r n f o r very low pay- m e n t s which a r e n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o f i n a n c e t h e i r d e m a n d s f o r m a n u f a c t u r e d and o t h e r c o n s u m e r goods. I t is also obvious t h a t t h e labour migration t o large- scale m e c h a n i z e d a g r ~ c u l t u r a l s c h e m e s and t o urban c e n t r e s of e m p l o y m e n t m e a n s t h a t t h e m i g r a n t s a r e increasingly unable t o c l e a r new plots f o r c u l t i v a t i o n in t h e i r h o m e a r e a s . T h e c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y of land h a s t h e r e f o r e been e x c e e d e d by continuous cropping a t t h e e x p e n s e of t h e period t h a t i t should b e l e f t fallow. Another c o n t r i b u t o r y f a c t o r t o r h e reduction of fallow periods h a s been t h e d i s p l a c e m e n t of s u b s i s t e n c e c u l t i v a t o r s f r o m t h e i r f a r m s , especially in a r e a s w h e r e t h e old villages a r e surrounded by t h e s c h e m e s . Shifting c u l t i v a t i o n which w a s traditionally a d o p t e d in o r d e r t o r e g u l a t e land f e r t i l i t y by leaving t h e land fallow f o r a number of y e a r s in o r d e r t o r e g e n e r a t e is no longer possible. T h e f a r m e r s have had t o c h a n g e f r o m c u l t i v a t i n g s e v e r a l plots over long periods of t i m e t o fixed farming. This in t u r n h a s t h e s a m e e f f e c t a s t h e reduction of fallow periods a n d i t s a c c o m p a n y i n g n e g a t i v e i m p a c t on soil f e r t i l i t y a n d h e n c e land productivity. 2

F u r t h e r m o r e , low productivity is coupled with a decline in t h e p r i c e s of a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s r e l a t i v e t o m a n u f a c t u r e d goods. I t is e s t i m a t e d t h a t o v e r 40 per c e n t of f a m i l y labour in a g r i c u l t u r e is d i r e c t e d t o t h e production of c a s h c r o p s while 60 per c e n t of t h e c r o p s produced by t h e family, including food, is d e s t i n e d t o b e exchanged on t h e national m a r k e t s , only t o b e e x p o r t e d a f t e r w a r d s . H e n c e t h e c l a s s i c c a s e of t h e loss of household viability d u e t o t h e i n t e g r a t i o n of t r a d i t i o n a l producers i n t o t h e m a r k e t e c o n o m y prevails.3 When m e a s u r e d a g a i n s t a n annual population g r o w t h of 2.8 per c e n t , t h i s is a c l e a r indication of a growing food deficit. T h e 1983-1985 f a m i n e r e v e a l e d t h a t o n e in e v e r y f i v e i n h a b i t a n t s in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands of t h e Sudan w a s d e p e n d e n t on relief food. A food d e f i c i t of o v e r 1.5 million t o n s in 1984 w a s only a m o d e s t r e f l e c t i o n of t h e inability of t h e s m a l l producers in this a r e a (which is rich in n a t u r a l resources) t o f e e d t h e m s e l v e s a n d t h e f a i l u r e of t h e p r e s e n t a g r i c u l t u r a l policies t o devise a p p r o p r i a t e m e a s u r e s f o r addressing t h i s growing crisis.

Agrarian c h a n g e in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands h a s s o f a r been based on t h e h o r i z o n t a l expansion of m e c h a n i z e d f a r m i n g r a t h e r t h a n a v e r t i c a l improve- m e n t in productivity. A d a p t i v e r e s e a r c h is lacking, high yielding c r o p

v a r i e t i e s h a v e n o t been e x p e r i m e n t e d with, soil m a n a g e m e n t is poor, bio- technology h a s been d i r e c t l y o r indirectly neglected, and t h e mechanization package h a s proved t o be inadequately conceived and hastily adopted a s t h e only m e a n s t o a g r i c u l t u r a l development. Added t o t h e s e problems a r e t h e c l a s s i c r e s t r i c t i v e f a c t o r s such a s excessive c o s t s of m e c h a n i z a t i o n in t e r m s of foreign exchange, supply, difficulties with m a i n t e n a n c e , repair and under- utilization of machinery. Moreover, t h e large- scale mechanized a g r i c u l t u r a l s c h e m e s have particularly c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e blight of t h e small producers both c u l t i v a t o r s a n d pastoralists, especially t h o s e who w e r e displaced f r o m t h e i r c u l t i v a b l e lands, w a t e r points and animal routes.

Appropriate planning could h a v e e l i m i n a t e d such d i s a s t e r s which have unnecessarily been inflicted upon t h e t r a d i t i o n a l producers of t h e c e n t r a l rainlands w h e r e t h e large- scale s c h e m e s a r e located. The p r e s e n t agri- c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s in t h e rainfed s e c t o r have led t o a n a c c e l e r a t i n g decline in soil f e r t i l i t y which m a k e s t h e viability of t h e whole v e n t u r e question- able. Excessive c u l t i v a t i o n , avoidance of r o t a t i o n and soil erosion have already resulted in low levels of productivity (see Mohamed Salih in this volume) which m e a n t h a t t h e m e r c h a n t f a r m e r s may soon s t a r t t o expand t h e i r operations t o new a r e a s in o r d e r t o continue in business. More traditional f a r m e r s will eventually b e displaced and m o r e complex problems will e m e r g e following such a p a t t e r n of horizontal expansion. What is a t s t a k e , t h e r e f o r e , is n o t only t h e degradation of t h e whole ecological zone, but also a f u t u r e s t r a i n in t h e ability of t h e population of t h e c e n t r a l lands t o f e e d itself.

I t h a s t o b e m a d e c l e a r a t this juncture t h a t I h a v e n o t a r g u e d t h a t agricultural mechanization o r technological c h a n g e is incapable of achiev- ing high productivity if i t h a s been properly planned and applied. I have, however, argued t h a t planned a g r a r i a n c h a n g e in t h e rainlands h a s not t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t t h e complexity of t h e e c o s y s t e m , t h e t r a d i t i o n a l agri- c u l t u r a l and pastoral production s y s t e m s and t h e likely i m p a c t s t h a t i t might h a v e on society, economy and ecology. As such, a g r a r i a n c h a n g e in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands c a n b e regarded a s a n ecological, social and e c o n o m i c disaster a s f a r a s t h e t r a d i t i o n a l producers a r e concerned.

Ecologically, t h e rainlands have been subjected t o a d r a s t i c degradation of t h e i r n a t u r a l resources d u e t o t r a d i t i o n a l and modern agricultural malpractices. Population c o n c e n t r a t i o n a d j a c e n t t o t h e

mechanized agricultural s c h e m e s h a s a l r e a d y led t o overcultivation and overgrazing, and both h a v e c o n t r i b u t e d in t h e depletion of soil f e r t i l i t y and t h e impoverishment of t h e v e g e t a t i o n cover, f o r e x a m p l e by t h e felling of t r e e s t o provide firewood and charcoal. Now t h a t t h e land h a s r e a c h e d and gone beyond i t s c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y , t h e r e is increasing pressure t o f e l l m o r e l a r g e t r e e s in o r d e r t o f e e d small a n i m a l s such a s calves, g o a t s and sheep. This situation w a s a g g r a v a t e d by t h e t w o drought phases of 1971- 1973 and 1983-1985 during which many human lives w e r e lost and herd holdings w e r e reduced by d e a t h a n d sale. T h e prices of livestock d e c r e a s e d a s t h e m a r k e t mechanism worked against t h e s t e a d y supply and g l u t t e d markets. T h e ecological degradation h a s resulted in a human tragedy; i t is t h e pastoralists and t h e small c u l t i v a t o r s of t h i s c l i m a t i c a l l y unpredictable z o n e who h a v e s u f f e r e d most. Much of t h e r u r a l population h a s l e f t t h e i r villages a n d t h e i r e m p t y a n i m a l c a m p s t o m o v e t o t o w n s o r a d j a c e n t t o t h e a r e a s w h e r e relief a g e n c i e s o p e r a t e .

Socially, ecological degradation, drought and f a m i n e h a s m e a n t a n a c c e l e r a t i n g r a t e of migration; mostly f r o m t h e c e n t r a l rainlands t o river- ain Sudan and t o t h e c a p i t a l towns in particular. The Economic Survey of 1986 indicated t h a t t h e population of t h e T h r e e Towns (Khartoum, Khartoum North and Omdurman) h a s increased through migration f r o m 500,000 in 1956 t o 1,802,000 in 1983 and o v e r 2,000,000 in 1986, i.e., a f t e r t h e famine. The population in t h e rainlands has n e v e r t h e l e s s doubled during t h e l a s t 25 years, which i n d i c a t e s t h e e x t r a demands on land and p r e d i c a t e s t h e m i g r a t o r y movement. In i t s crudist but c o r r e c t sense, migration m e a n s t h e loss of labour t o t h e urban c e n t r e s and t h e t r a n s f o r m - a t i o n of about 7 per c e n t of t h e r u r a l population e v e r y y e a r t o food consumers. Moreover, s i n c e m o s t of t h e m i g r a n t s a r e men, t h i s i n c r e a s e s t h e work burden of women in t h e sending villages. More women a r e engaged in w a g e labour working for t h e w e a l t h y f a r m e r s and shopkeepers in t h e villages for v e r y low r a t e s of p a y m e n t r e l a t i v e t o men. The involvement of men a n d women in t h e production of c a s h c r o p s and w a g e labour also m e a n s t h a t less t i m e is d e v o t e d t o home food production which in t u r n i n c r e a s e s t h e vulnerability of traditional f a r m e r s t o ecological c h a n g e and f l u c t u a t i o n s in t h e prices of m a n u f a c t u r e d goods which a r e t h e p r e s e n t indicators of t h e value of t h e i r work through exchange.

Although i t is difficult t o s e p a r a t e t h e various i m p a c t s of a g r a r i a n

change, economically, t h e population of t h e c e n t r a l rainlands is m o r e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d t h a n e v e r before. The distinction between t h e traditional f a r m e r who c u l t i v a t e s b e t w e e n 3 and 15 feddans with v e r y r u d i m e n t a r y tools and t h e m e r c h a n t f a r m e r who a c q u i r e s b e t w e e n 1,000 t o 1,500 f e d d a n s and owns his own t r a c t o r o r t r a c t o r s , thresher, and combined discs, is a distinction b e t w e e n a b s o l u t e poverty and ravishing wealth.

F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e i n t e g r a t i o n of t h e whole region i n t o n a t i o n a l a n d inter- national e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e s h a s been accomplished n o t only by t h e p e n e t r a t i o n of c o m m e r c i a l c a p i t a l , but also by t h e c r e a t i o n of m a r k e t i n g boards m a n d a t e d t o e x t r a c t surpluses f r o m t h e small producers. These include t h e Oil Seeds Marketing Corporation, Livestock a n d M e a t Market- ing Corporation and t h e Gum A r a b i c Marketing Corporation.

I t is ironic t h a t d e s p i t e t h e huge t r a n s f e r s of financial c a p i t a l , tech- nological machinery a n d know how, t h e food situation h a s n o t improved and t h e traditional s e c t o r h a s l o s t i t s dynamism t o t h e dominant m a r k e t economy. P o v e r t y h a s i n c r e a s e d and f e w e r people c a n now produce s u f f i c i e n t grain t o f e e d t h e m s e l v e s o r s e c u r e a surplus t o sell in t h e m a r k e t t o m e e t a s m a l l f r a c t i o n of t h e increasing d e m a n d f o r consumer goods. T h e a g r a r i a n c h a n g e h a s s o f a r s e e m e d unrewarding t o t h e rural poor who should ideally b e t h e beneficiaries of development. ⁴ T h e t h e m e s outlined a b o v e a r e well r e p r e s e n t e d in most of t h e papers in this book. However, Elbadawi holds t h e view t h a t t h e Sudanese a g r a r i a n s e c t o r s u f f e r s f r o m m a l f o r m e d i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e s and policies which a r e t h e m a i n reason behind t h e c u r r e n t decline in productivity. T h e surplus e x t r a c t e d f r o m a g r i c u l t u r e is not re- invested in improving t h e infra- s t r u c t u r e , innovative technology, and redressing t h e s e g m e n t e d m a r k e t in t h e traditional sub- sector. C o n t r a r y t o my c r i t i q u e of a g r i c u l t u r a l mech- anization, Elbadawi maintains t h a t a d e q u a t e i n v e s t m e n t in agricultural technology, r e s e a r c h and a s s o c i a t e d s h i f t e r s of supply such a s human resources and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e a r e t h e c r u c i a l f a c t o r s needed t o m e e t t h e increasing demand f o r food and s e c u r e r e s o u r c e t r a n s f e r s f r o m a g r i c u l t u r e t o o t h e r s e c t o r s of t h e economy. This a u t h o r also n o t e s t h e lack of i n v e s t m e n t in t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r which h a s customarily produced a considerable surplus of e x p o r t commodities, but c o m m e n t s t h a t ' t h e mobilization and t r a n s f e r of surplus f r o m a technologically s t a g n a n t a g r i c u l t u r e is n e i t h e r desirable nor feasible a s a long t e r m policy'.

Holy's p a p e r gives w e i g h t t o t h e g e n e r a l findings of a l l t h e papers included in t h i s book c o n c e r n i n g t h e e m e r g e n c e of w a g e labour, t h e involv- e m e n t of t r a d i t i o n a l p r o d u c e r s in t h e m a r k e t economy, a n d t h e m e c h a n i s m s through which r i c h a n d poor households m a k e e n d s m e e t . T h e s t r a t e g y a d o p t e d by t h e B e r t i agro- pastoralists shows a g r e a t d e g r e e of sophi- s t i c a t i o n in t h e a l l o c a t i o n of labour a n d c a p i t a l - mainly livestock r e s o u r c e s - which a r e c o n c e i v e d a s t h e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r s in household e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e a n d h e n c e viability. T h e association b e t w e e n p o v e r t y a n d t h e a c c e p t a n c e of work a s hired labourers in a g r i c u l t u r e and p a s t o r a l production is a c l e a r indication of t h e growing c o m m e r c i a l i z a t i o n of t h e s e i m p o r t a n t s p h e r e s of s u b s i s t e n c e a c t i v i t i e s . I t is c l e a r t h a t t h e B e r t i a g r i c u l t u r a l s y s t e m works within a s t a g n a n t technology w i t h o u t any modern inputs. I t is i n t e r e s t i n g t h a t t h i s s y s t e m r e m a i n s viable unless i t s b a l a n c e is s h a t t e r e d by e c o l o g i c a l d i s a s t e r s o r e x c e s s i v e consumption of m a n u f a c t u r e d goods. T h e i n t e r n a l d y n a m i c s of consumption a n d production p a t t e r n s a r e convincingly d e m o n s t r a t e d by t h e manner in which t h e l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s of t h e B e r t i a r e a c t i v a t e d t o o f f s e t t h e d e f i c i t in u r g e n t require- ments.

Manger discusses t h e a b i l i t y of t r a d i t i o n a l f a r m i n g s y s t e m s t o respond t o e x t e r n a l pressures. T h e c a s e s of Liri a n d Kheiran r e v e a l t h a t s m a l l producers a r e a w a r e of t h e i m p o r t a n c e of r e s o u r c e m a i n t e n a n c e if t h e i n t e n s i v e utilization of land i s t o b e practised. Manuring a n d t e r r a c i n g a r e a m o n g t h e m e a s u r e s a d o p t e d t o m e e t t h e c r i t e r i a of a c a r e f u l utilization of resources. T h e d e v e l o p m e n t of i r r i g a t e d a g r i c u l t u r e in t h e Kheiran o a s e s r e f l e c t s t h e c a p a c i t y of r u r a l c o m m u n i t i e s t o t r a n s f e r technology a n d induce a g r a r i a n change. Both t h e shadouf a n d saqia technologies work well a n d a r e r e l a t i v e l y c h e a p and e f f i c i e n t . An a l l t o o f a m i l i a r con- s e q u e n c e of t h e p e n e t r a t i o n of t h e m a r k e t e c o n o m y is t h a t t h e s e t w o t e c h n i q u e s h a v e been r e n d e r e d f u t i l e while t h e w e a l t h y f a r m e r s h a v e o p t e d f o r t h e m o r e expensive a n d l a n d exhausting pump schemes. It is unfort- u n a t e t h a t f o r socio- economic r e a s o n s t h e t w o s o c i e t i e s a r e moving a w a y f r o m t h e i n t e n s i v e t o t h e e x t e n s i v e s y s t e m s of production a t a t i m e when r e s o u r c e m a i n t e n a n c e i s a n issue of a m a j o r c o n c e r n in t h e s a h e l

.

In c o n t r a s t t o t h e c a s e s of a g r i c u l t u r a l intensification a n d r e s o u r c e m a i n t e n a n c e in t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r , G o r e a n a l y s e s t h e a b s e n c e of t h i s notion in t h e financially prosperous a n d technologically developed

m e c h a n i z e d f a r m i n g sub- sector. H e explains how t h e expansion of large- s c a l e m e c h a n i z a t i o n in Dinkaland h a s c r e a t e d a r e s e r v e of a g r i c u l t u r a l labourers, m a n y of whom having lost t h e i r land t o t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r . While t h e m e c h a n i z e d s c h e m e s h a v e c r e a t e d a f f l u e n c e on t h e o n e hand, t h e y h a v e c r e a t e d p o v e r t y on t h e other. T h e contribution of t h i s f o r m of a g r a r i a n c h a n g e t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of social s e r v i c e s in t h e a r e a s w h e r e t h e s c h e m e s a r e l o c a t e d is negligible. R a t h e r , i t h a s c r e a t e d a dependency of t h e poor on t h e r i c h in t h e f i r s t i n s t a n c e and a d o m i n a n c e of t h e rich o v e r t h e poor. T h e o u t c o m e of a g r i c u l t u r a l m e c h a n i z a t i o n is t h e r e l e g a t i o n of t h e s u b s i s t e n c e c u l t i v a t o r s a n d p a s t o r a l i s t s t o e x t r e m e p o v e r t y a n d t h e r e d u c t i o n of t h e i r ability t o f e e d t h e m s e l v e s while t h e i r labour is sold t o s e c u r e t h e production of millions of t o n s of grain.

T h e breaking down of household v i a b i l i ~ y , t h e d r i v e t o w a r d s e x t e n s i v e s y s t e m s of a g r i c u l t u r a l production in t h e ecologically d e g r a d e d s a h e l

,

a n d t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e m o d e r n technologies in t h e hands of w e a l t h y m e r c h a n t f a r m e r s h a v e c u l m i n a t e d in t h e f a m i n e c r i s e s of 1983- 1985. El Tom highlights t h e unpredictability of t h e c l i m a t e of t h e sahelian zone, a n d p a i n t s t h e t r a g i c p i c t u r e of f a m i n e a n d t h e w a y i t s t r u c t u r a l l y p e n e t r a t e s e v e r y a s p e c t of t h e lives of t h e s u b s i s t e n c e c u l t i v a t o r s and pastoralists. Livestock e i t h e r died or w a s sold f o r very low prices, wells dried up, a n d no h a r v e s t w a s c o l l e c t e d f o r t h r e e c o n s e c u t i v e years. How- e v e r , t h e population used t h e i r local knowledge a b o u t t h e i r ecology s o e f f e c t i v e l y , processing wild p l a n t s a n d s e e d s arduously i n t o e d i b l e food.

This in itself i n d i c a t e s t h e f r e q u e n c y of c r o p failures. N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e question r e m a i n e d a s t o why d r o u g h t e n d e d in such a n a c u t e f a m i n e crisis t h i s t i m e . And o n e a n s w e r proposed i s t h a t t h e c u r r e n t a g r i c u l t u r a l policies a n d t h e a r t i c u l a t i o n of t h e p e a s a n t s in t h e m a r k e t e c o n o m y h a v e led t o t h e i r marginalization. A f t e r t h e i r p r o d u c e is m a r k e t e d a n d t h e surplus i s e x t r a c t e d by t h e p a r a s t a t a l s a n d t h e m e r c h a n t s , t h e s m a l l p r o d u c e r s a r e l e f t w i t h nothing but t h e i r poverty.

Following t h e s a m e t h e m e but a t t h e national a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l levels, A h m e d provides a thorough e x p l a n a t i o n of t h e d y n a m i c s of p a s t o r a l s y s t e m s of production a n d t h e i m p a c t of g o v e r n m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n o n t h e s m a l l producers, both c u l t i v a t o r s a n d agro- pastoralists. I t c l e a r l y e m e r g e s t h a t national a m b i v a l e n c e coupled w i t h t h e s t r u c t u r a l d e p e n d e n c e of t h e s t a t e on e x t e r n a l l y m o t i v a t e d p r o j e c t s r e p r e s e n t s o m e of t h e f a c t o r s behind t h e

d e m i s e of pastoralism in t h e Sudan. Although f a m i n e c a n b e a t t r i b u t e d t o ecological f a c t o r s , t h e ill- planned a g r i c u l t u r a l s c h e m e s which h a v e c o n t r i - b u t e d t o ecological d e g r a d a t i o n a r e only o n e f o r m of i n t e r v e n t i o n f r o m t h e s t a t e a n d t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l a g e n c i e s i n t o t h e lives of local c o m m u n i t i e s w i t h o u t o f f e r i n g any s u i t a b l e ' d e v e l o p m e n t ' a l t e r n a t i v e . While A h m e d is n o t c r i t i c a l of i n t e r v e n t i o n per s e , h e d o e s f o c u s on t h e disastrousness of n e g l e c t i n g p a r t i c u l a r groups in s o c i e t y when d e v e l o p m e n t p r o j e c t s a r e planned, when t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e national r e v e n u e is a s s u r e d w i t h o u t any i m p r o v e m e n t s in t h e i r social life.

T h e c h o i c e of technology f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t a n d t h e sociological dimension of using o n e technology r a t h e r t h a n a n o t h e r is e l a b o r a t e d by Salih w h o a d v o c a t e s t h e use of a n i m a l t r a c t i o n a s a n a p p r o p r i a t e m e a n s of r e a c h i n g t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e f a r m e r s in t h e t r a d - itional s e c t o r . Given t h e p r e s e n t e v i d e n c e f r o m o t h e r A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s a n d t h e l i m i t e d e x p e r i e n c e with a n i m a l t r a c t i o n in Sudan, t h e a u t h o r c a n - n o t c r e d i t t h e f a i l u r e t o a p p r e c i a t e t h e r e l e v a n c e of t h i s t y p e of technology f o r t h e Sudanese e c o n o m y a n d s o c i e t y o n t h e p a r t of n a t i o n a l governments. Nevertheless, t h i s labour saving a n d l e s s expensive t e c h - nology should be p r e c e d e d by f a v o u r a b l e prices f o r c r o p s , e f f e c t i v e training, t h e c r e a t i o n of r e p a i r f a c i l i t i e s , a n d t h e provision of a n a d e q u a t e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . If a g r a d u a l a p p r o a c h is c o m m a n d e d , a n i m a l d r a f t technology will c e r t a i n l y h a v e a positive e f f e c t on raising t h e s t a n d a r d s of living of t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e r u r a l poor in r e l a t i o n t o t h e p r e s e n t m e c h a n i z a t i o n p r o g r a m m e which f a v o u r s t h e w e a l t h y m e r c h a n t f a r m e r s . T h e m e s s a g e f r o m Salih's p a p e r is t h a t t h e r e is a need f o r assessing t h e e c o n o m i e s of f a r m s i z e a n d productivity in t h e Sudan w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e various technological options a v a i l a b l e r a t h e r than holding t o a f a u l t y p e r c e p t i o n of t h e t r a c t o r a s t h e only a l t e r n a t i v e t o hoe cultivation.

T h e issue of r u r a l / u r b a n migration h a s b e e n t o u c h e d upon by a l m o s t a l l t h e authors. Mohamed d e a l s w i t h t h e e c o n o m i e s of t h e m o v e m e n t of workers f r o m t h e r u r a l t o t h e urban labour m a r k e t s , a n d i t is obvious f r o m his analysis t h a t r u r a l / u r b a n m i g r a t i o n is a r e s u l t of e c o n o m i c deprivation in t h e r u r a l a r e a s . What is m o r e i n t e r e s t i n g is t h e a u t h o r ' s i n s i s t e n c e on c a l c u l a t i n g t h e shadow w a g e r a t e a s a disguised social b e n e f i t t h a t t h e m i g r a n t r e c e i v e s f r o m working in t h e r e l a t i v e l y privileged u r b a n c e n t r e s . Mohamed also a t t r i b u t e s t h e a c c e l e r a t i n g r a t e of migration f r o m t h e

a g r i c u l t u r a l t o t h e underdeveloped industrial s e c t o r t o t h e c u r r e n t dis- i n t e g r a t i o n of t h a t s e c t o r d u e t o l a c k of maintenance, and s h o r t a g e of a d e q u a t e inputs. T h e e f f e c t of this a t t h e m a c r o level is t h e staggering f a l l in public s e c t o r i n c o m e r e l a t i v e t o t h e r a t e of c h a n g e in t h e social valuation of public s e c t o r consumption. This implies t h a t t h e public s e c t o r would lose m o r e by depending on a decaying urban industrial s e c t o r and a disintegrating a g r a r i a n s e c t o r t h a t sends o u t thousands of labourers e v e r y y e a r t o t h e f o r m e r s e c t o r . If labour follows capital, t h e r o o t s of rural/

urban migration a r e t h e r e f o r e found in t h e uneven development between t h e sending regions a n d t h e receiving large- scale mechanized s c h e m e s and t h e semi- industrialized urban c e n t r e s .

S o m e conclusions c a n be d r a w n f r o m t h e r e c e n t e x p e r i e n c e of a g r a r i a n c h a n g e in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands. The scholars have d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t t h e rainfed s e c t o r i s still largely disorganized. T h e s t r u c t u r e of i n c e n t i v e s is poor, t h e local m a r k e t s a r e f r a g m e n t e d , e f f e c t i v e pricing policies a r e lacking, t h e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i s inappropriate, a n d t h e mechanization policies a r e f a r f r o m adequate. T h e s e n e g a t i v e f a c t o r s h a v e c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e p r e s e n t a g r i c u l t u r a l depression which in t u r n h a s r e s u l t e d in a g e n e r a l e c o n o m i c recession. Re- organizing such a g r a r i a n doldrums requires a s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e and n o t simple s e c t o r a l improvements. T h e recognition of t h e s e problems and a n y a t t e m p t t o w a r d s solving t h e m i s unfortunately s t r u c t u r a l l y r e l a t e d t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l development institutions which a r e partially responsible f o r t h e p r e s e n t a g r a r i a n crisis.

Most of t h e c u r r e n t a g r a r i a n problems in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands s t e m f r o m t h e f a c t t h a t t h e t r a d i t i o n a l f a r m i n g s y s t e m s a r e largely neglected.

T h e y a r e still c h a r a c t e r i s e d by t h e lack of c a p i t a l and l i t t l e use of modern inputs o r bio-technology. T h e answer t o t h e declining soil f e r t i l i t y a n d low yield r a t e s per f e d d a n lies with t h e modification of t h e t r a d i t i o n a l agri- c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s and techniques. Since extension s e r v i c e h a s n o t been a c c o r d e d a n y significant value in t h e rainfed s e c t o r in g e n e r a l and t h e traditional f a r m i n g s y s t e m in p a r t i c u l a r , i t i s high t i m e t o develop human resources through t h e introduction of a viable extension service. However, such a n e f f o r t requires m o r e r e s e a r c h in t h e s e s a m e t r a d i t i o n a l s y s t e m s of production if extension is t o d i s s e m i n a t e t h e knowledge a c q u i r e d by t h e r e s e a r c h institutions t o t h e t r a d i t i o n a l f a r m e r s . I t is u n f o r t u n a t e t h a t most of t h e r e s e a r c h t h a t h a s been c a r r i e d o u t in t h e rainfed s e c t o r

is mainly d i r e c t e d t o t h e mechanized s e c t o r . Very l i t t l e is known a b o u t t h e social and e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e s , agronomical practices, f a r m e r s ' moti- vation, responses t o i n c o m e opportunities, prices a n d incentives in t h e traditional sector. R e s e a r c h on i n t e r m e d i a t e technology and a n i m a l drawn e q u i p m e n t is particularly needed t o o f f e r s o m e hope t o t h e t e n s of thousands of traditional f a r m e r s who still use t h e hoe t o c o m p e t e with t r a c t o r s over t h e s a m e f r a g m e n t e d r u r a l markets.

D e s p i t e t h e i r contribution t o national development through t h e surplus e x t r a c t e d by t h e p a r a s t a t a l s working in t h e m a r k e t i n g of t h e i r products, pastoralists a r e particularly neglected. No plan has s o f a r been devised for improving t h e i r s t a n d a r d s of living o r providing t h e m with necessary services. They a r e instead, s u b j e c t e d t o e c o n o m i c pressures through t h e i r incorporation i n t o t h e m a r k e t economy, and ecological m i s f i t through t h e expansion of large- scale m e c h a n i z e d schemes. Developments in t h i s a r e a a r e s c a r c e and d o n o t r e f l e c t t h e r e a l i t y of pastoral s y s t e m s of production today. T h e question of how t o develop pastoralism in t h e Sudan c a n n o t be a n s w e r e d within t h e l i m i t s of t h e available knowledge and existing research.

More r e s e a r c h is t h e r e f o r e required n o t only t o u p d a t e our knowledge a b o u t pastoralists but a l s o t o explain such issues a s t h e i r response t o f a m i n e and drought, t h e e m e r g i n g socio- economic s t r u c t u r e s within which ecological a d a p t a t i o n i s taking place, t h e c o n t e m p o r a r y s h i f t s in m i g r a t o r y p a t t e r n s , herd m a n a g e m e n t a n d responses t o prices and m a r k e t i n g f a c i l i t i e s and t h e possibility of introducing small- scale dairy industries. All t h e studies in this book point, t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e 1983-1985 f a m i n e w a s a r e s u l t of t h e negligence of p a s t o r a l i s t s and traditional cultivators. Food s e c u r i t y in i t s t r u e s e n s e lies with improving t h e m e t h o d s a n d techniques of production in t h e s e t w o s e c t o r s of t h e r u r a l economy.

Land t e n u r e problems a r e c e r t a i n l y g a t h e r i n g m o m e n t u m , especially with t h e large- scale expansion of m e c h a n i z e d farming. T h e p r e v a l e n t a g r a r i a n transition h a s a l r e a d y led t o t h e relegation of thousands of small producers t o t h e c a t e g o r y of w a g e e a r n e r s . Thousands m o r e have been displaced f r o m t h e i r land which is now a l l o c a t e d t o t h e m e r c h a n t f a r m e r s . P r o m p t a c t i o n is required b e f o r e t h e s y s t e m of land t e n u r e develops t o a n e x t e n t w h e r e g o v e r n m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n b e c o m e s impossible owing t o t h e r e s i s t a n c e of t h o s e who have a vested i n t e r e s t in t h e prevailing s y s t e m of land allocation.

T h e a r e a s w h e r e t h e large- scale mechanized s c h e m e s h a v e been l o c a t e d a r e largely underdeveloped. T h e a g r a r i a n transition h a s passed over t h e rural poor t o t h e b e n e f i t of t h o s e w h o a r e already wealthy. This m a l f o r m e d agricultural development h a s also c o n t r i b u t e d t o migration out- side t h e f a r m i n g c o m m u n i t i e s t o towns a n d o t h e r c e n t r e s of employment.

I t i s obvious t h a t t h e problems of social and e c o n o m i c policy making a r e closely r e l a t e d t o t h e p a t t e r n of agricultural surplus allocation. In t h e c a s e of t h e c e n t r a l rainlands which produce o v e r 7 5 p e r c e n t of t h e grain consumed in t h e c o u n t r y o r e x p o r t e d during t h e good harvests, schools, h e a l t h clinics, w a t e r supplies, roads and o t h e r social s e r v i c e s a r e e x t r e m e l y lacking. This in itself questions t h e v e r y wisdom behind t h i s p a t t e r n of s e c t o r a l a g r a r i a n c h a n g e a n d i t s r e l e v a n c e t o r u r a l development, if by d e v e l o p m e n t w e m e a n t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of . t h e quality of t h e l i f e of t h e r u r a l population. In developing t h e a g r a r i a n s e c t o r in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands m o r e a t t e n t i o n should b e given t o t h e relationship b e t w e e n surplus e x t r a c t i o n , regional inequalities and prospects of reaching t h e r u r a l poor.

T h e s e c t o r a l a p p r o a c h which h a s been a d o p t e d has, s o f a r , proved t o b e incapable of diffusing t h e b e n e f i t s of development t o t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e r u r a l population who s t i l l depend o n a s t a g n a n t technology. If a g r i c u l t u r a l development r e f e r s t o increasing c r o p production by overcoming production constraints, t h e planned a g r a r i a n c h a n g e in t h e c e n t r a l rainlands h a s barely s u c c e e d e d in increasing production in t h e mechanized f a r m i n g s e c t o r a t t h e e x p e n s e of t h e m a s s e s of t h e t r a d i t i o n a l producers. Nonetheless, t h e technological p a c k a g e which h a s been deployed f o r t h e purpose of over- coming production c o n s t r a i n t s h a s c r e a t e d a n o t h e r s e t of c o n s t r a i n t s which a r e d e t r i m e n t a l t o t h e production c a p a c i t y of t h e t r a d i t i o n a l f a r m e r s and pastoralists. If technological c h a n g e is conceived a s o n e of t h e m e a n s f o r overcoming production c o n s t r a i n t s , i t follows t h a t a n i n t e r m e d i a t e t e c h - nology, a n i m a l t r a c t i o n , bio-technology, s e e d i m p r o v e m e n t p r o g r a m m e and t h e introduction of high yielding v a r i e t i e s m a y c o n s t i t u t e a b e t t e r a v e n u e of technological change. However, this o b j e c t i v e is difficult t o a t t a i n unless t h e p r e s e n t a g r i c u l t u r a l policies a r e re- structured and t h e a g e n t s of change, both national and international, a r e willing t o m e e t t h e challenge of changing t h e i r a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d s small producers.

( I ) For m o r e m a t e r i a l on t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s y s t e m s of production a n d t h e i r m a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s r e f e r t o t h e Introduction in G. Haaland (ed) P r o b l e m s of Savannah Development: T h e Sudan C a s e , Bergen Occasional P a p e r s in Social Anthropology, No. 19, 1982. Also r e f e r t o Tothill (ed) A g r i c u l t u r e in t h e Sudan, Oxford, 1948, F. Barth, 'Economic S p h e r e s in D a r f u r ' in R. F i r t h (ed) T h e m e s in E c o n o m i c Anthropology, Tavistock, 1967. F o r t h e i m p a c t of m e c h a n i z e d f a r m i n g on t r a d i t i o n a l c u l t i v a t o r s a n d p a s t o r a l i s t s r e f e r t o M.H. Saeed, E c o n o m i c E f f e c t s of Agricultural Mechanization in R u r a l Sudan, in G. Haaland (ed) P r o b l e m s of Savannah Development, Bergen, 1982, a n d F.H. A d a m e t a1 : Mechanized A g r i c u l t u r e in t h e C e n t r a l Rainlands in P. Oesterdiekhoff e t a1 (eds) T h e Develop- m e n t P e r s p e c t i v e of t h e Republic of t h e Sudan, Munich, 1983.

(2) T h e o v e r a l l d e c r e a s e in land productivity f o r t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r is e s t i m a t e d a s follows (kgtfeddan):

Sorghum C o t t o n S e s a m e Groundnuts

E s t i m a t e s compiled f r o m various r e p o r t s by t h e Ministry of Agriculture, Food a n d N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s f r o m 1960 t o 1985.

(3) T h e l i t e r a t u r e o n t h e political e c o n o m y of a g r i c u l t u r e in A f r i c a h a s c o n c e n t r a t e d o n providing t h e o r e t i c a l f r a m e w o r k s r a t h e r t h a n policy o r i e n t e d contributions. Most s c h o l a r s h a v e highlighted t h e problem of t h e i m p o v e r i s h m e n t of t h e p e a s a n t r y through t h e i r incorporation i n t o t h e c a p i t a l i s t m o d e of production, o t h e r s m o r e e m p h a s i z e d t h e i r s t r u c t u r a l d e p e n d e n c e on t h e m a r k e t economy, or t h e unequal e x c h a n g e p r o c e s s e s t h a t h a v e been t a k i n g p l a c e b e t w e e n t h e producers of p r i m a r y e x p o r t s on t h e o n e hand a n d t h e

producers of t h e c a p i t a l goods o n t h e other. This book t r a n s c e n d s s u c h c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n s t o analysing t h e a c t u a l p a t t e r n of r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e a g r a r i a n s e c t o r a n d t h e i n t e r n a l a s well a s t h e e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s of change. F o r m o r e m a t e r i a l on t h e political e c o n o m y of A f r i c a n a g r i c u l t u r e r e f e r t o R.H. Bates, Essays on t h e P o l i t i c a l Economy of R u r a l A f r i c a , C a m b r i d g e University P r e s s , 1983, G. Arrighi a n d Saul, Essays on t h e P o l i t i c a l Economy of A f r i c a , E a s t A f r i c a Publishing House, 1973.

C.Y. Thomas, D e p e n d e n c e and T r a n s f o r m a t i o n , New York, 1977.

S. Amin, ' A c c u m u l a t i o n o n a World Scale,' Monthly Review, New York, 1974. C. Leys, C a p i t a l Accumulation, C l a s s F o r m a t i o n a n d Dependency, Socialist R e g i s t e r , 1978.

( 4 ) F o r f u r t h e r e x p l a n a t i o n s of t h e r e c e n t f a m i n e crisis which a f f e c t e d t h e Sudan a m o n g o t h e r A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s r e f e r t o , R e v i e w of A f r i c a n P o l i t i c a l Economy, s p e c i a l issue on World Recession a n d

t h e Food Crisis in Africa, edited by P e t e r Lawrence, 1986.

Famine: A Man Made Disaster: A report by t h e Commission on Humanitarian Issues, London, 1985. Seeds of Famine by

R.W. Franke and B. Chasin, Montdesir, 1980. C. Stevens, Food, Aid and t h e Developing World, London, 1979. J. Carlsson (ed) Recession in Africa, Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, 1983. A. Sen, Poverty and Famine, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1983.

TAPPING THE AGRARIAN SECTOR FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH:

The Sudan Experience Ibrahirn A. Elbadawi

T h e Sudan is endowed w i t h huge e c o n o m i c p o t e n t i a l in t e r m s of agri- c u l t u r a l resources. A r a t h e r impressive a r r a y of s t a t i s t i c s c a n b e c i t e d in support of this claim. Being t h e l a r g e s t c o u n t r y in Africa, t h e Sudan has a t o t a l a r a b l e land of 85.46 million feddans. Only 20 per c e n t of t h i s p o t e n t i a l is c u r r e n t l y utilized. T h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e s a r e also q u i t e s u b s t a n t i a l and vastly under- exploited with only 50 per c e n t of w a t e r p o t e n t i a l being utilized.

Sudan's a g r i c u l t u r a l p o t e n t i a l a l s o lies in i t s s e c t o r a l diversity. T h e broad a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r c o m p r i s e s t h r e e sub- sectors: t h e t r a d i t i o n a l , t h e m e c h a n i z e d rainfed a n d t h e irrigated. E a c h of t h e s e sub- sectors produces food a n d c a s h c r o p s both f o r l o c a l consumption and export. T h e i r r i g a t e d sub- sector includes s c h e m e s such a s t h e G e z i r a , t h e Rahad, Khashm El Girba, El Suki, and t h e Toker a n d Gash Deltas. T h e s e a r e s p e c i a l i z e d in t h e production of c o t t o n , groundnuts, a n d o t h e r food c r o p s s u c h a s w h e a t in G e z i r a and Khashm El Girba. Sugar c a n e i s produced under t h e i r r i g a t e d sub- sector of Kennana, Guneid, Assalya a n d Khashm El Girba. While t h i s s e c t o r c o v e r s 4 million a c r e s , t h e m e c h a n i z e d rainfed sub- sector c o v e r s 6 million a c r e s of t h e c e n t r a l c l a y plains. T h e t r a d i t i o n a l sub- sector on which t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e population subsists c o v e r s over 9 million a c r e s a n d is considered t h e l a r g e s t sub- sector. Besides being t h e m a i n s o u r c e of t h e n a t i o n ' s livestock, t h i s sub- sector produces sorghum, millet, groundnuts, s e s a m e , gum a r a b i c a n d o t h e r minor crops.

This a g g r e g a t i v e p o t e n t i a l has b e e n used t o r a t i o n a l i z e a m o d e of a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t based on e x t e n s i v e r e s o u r c e utilization. Hence, t h e o f f i c i a l view on a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t has s t a t e d t h a t , " with v a s t untapped land r e s o u r c e s in t h e c o u n t r y , t h e horizontal expansion of a g r i c u l t u r a l production holds promise f o r a quick and e c o n o m i c a l i n c r e a s e in production" (Ministry of National Planning, 1977). This p l e a f o r a n unqualified horizontal expansion has been e x e c u t e d with minimal infra- s t r u c t u r a l services, a n i n a d e q u a t e i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e , virtually no a d a p t i v e a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s e a r c h a n d a d e f o r m e d technological package.

This paper d r a w s o n l i t e r a t u r e a b o u t Sudan's a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t e f f o r t s in o r d e r t o e x a m i n e t h e p o t e n t i a l r61e of technology a n d i n c e n t i v e s in t h e process of a g r a r i a n t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , a n d finally t o a s s e s s c r i t i c a l l y t h e significance of pricing policies in p r o m o t i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l growth.

Sudan's A g r i c u l t u r a l D e v e l o p m e n t Efforts: An Overview

Like o t h e r less developed sub- saharan c o u n t r i e s , a g r i c u l t u r e plays a n i m p o r t a n t r61e in e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t in t h e Sudan. I t c o n t r i b u t e s 40 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l GDP, 75 per c e n t of t h e GDP in t h e productive s e c t o r s , o v e r 5 0 per c e n t of t h e t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t a n d 9 0 per c e n t of t h e c o u n t r y ' s foreign e x c h a n g e earnings. Also, m o s t of t h e non- agricultural p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y d e p e n d s on a g r i c u l t u r e in s o m e w a y o r another.

Besides, of course, a g r i c u l t u r e is t h e main s o u r c e of food supply. Never- theless, t h i s paper a r g u e s t h a t t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r r e m a i n s backward a n d deprived of t h e n e c e s s a r y i n f r a s t r u c t u r e a n d technological inputs e s s e n t i a l f o r i t s development. Even when s u c h i n v e s t m e n t h a s been made, i t has usually been c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n a d e q u a t e i n c e n t i v e s t r u c t u r e s , o f t e n d i c t a t e d by policies f a v o u r a b l e t o t h e urban c e n t r e s a n d s u s c e p t i b l e t o non- agrarian pressure groups a n d o t h e r f i n a n c i a l c o n s t r a i n t s a d v o c a t e d by t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l funding institutions.

I t is i n t e r e s t i n g t o m e n t i o n a t t h i s juncture, t h a t a r e v i e w of t h e c u r r e n t l i t e r a t u r e on a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t would show t h a t t h e Sudan's a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r e x e m p l i f i e s s o m e of t h e d o m i n a n t t r e n d s in o t h e r LDC's.

Consider f o r e x a m p l e t h e f a c t t h a t during t h e 1950's a n d t h e 1960's e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t w a s e q u a t e d w i t h g r o w t h in per c a p i t a income.

Also t h e s t r u c t u r a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n of t h e e c o n o m y w a s p e r c e i v e d a s a n a c h i e v e m e n t through a continuous s q u e e z e on agriculture. Thus t h e r 6 l e of e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t w a s s e e n t o f a c i l i t a t e t h e process of t r a n s f o r m a t i o n by a f f e c t i n g a continuous d e c l i n e in t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s h a r e in t h e national product and t h e labour f o r c e . In t h e words of L i t t l e (1982), " agriculture w a s o f t e n t r e a t e d a s a black box f r o m which people a n d food and p e r h a p s c a p i t a l c a n b e released".

Lewis's (1954) influential a n d widely c i t e d contribution, 'Economic D e v e l o p m e n t with Unlimited Supplies of L a b o u r ' , f o c u s e s on how t h e t r a n s f e r of labour f r o m t h e s u b s i s t e n c e s e c t o r (when t h e m a r g i n a l product- i v i t y i s assumed t o b e z e r o in t h e limit) t o t h e industrial s e c t o r f a c i l i t a t e d

c a p i t a l i s t e x p a n s i o n t h r o u g h t h e r e - i n v e s t m e n t of p r o f i t s . S i n c e t h e l a b o u r supply c u r v e f a c i n g t h e c a p i t a l i s t s e c t o r i s a s s u m e d t o b e i n f i n i t e l y e l a s t i c at t h e r u l i n g w a g e , L e w i s ' s m o d e l p r e d i c t s t h a t e x p a n s i o n in t h e c a p i t a l i s t s e c t o r will c o n t i n u e u n t i l e a r n i n g s in t h e t w o s e c t o r s a r e e q u a l ; a t w h i c h p o i n t a d u a l s e c t o r m o d e l i s n o l o n g e r r e l e v a n t . G r o w t h p r o c e e d s a s in o n e s e c t o r ( S t a a t z a n d E i c h e r , 1984). T h e r e l e v a n c e of t h i s s t a t e m e n t t o t h i s p a p e r , l i e s i n t h e p r o p o s i t i o n i n h e r e n t i n L e w i s ' s a s s u m p t i o n w h i c h f i r s t l y n e g l e c t s t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r a n d s e c o n d l y m a k e s a provision of e x t r a c t i n g s u r p l u s f r o m a g r i c u l t u r e w i t h o u t i n v e s t i n g i n it. T h i s h a s in t u r n led t o m o r e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o n t h e p r o m o t i o n of t h e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r a s a m e a n s of d e c l i n i n g t h e s h a r e of a g r i c u l t u r e in t h e d o m e s t i c e c o n o m y . J o r g e n s o n (1961) m a d e a p o i n t (which is a l s o r e l e v a n t t o t h e 1983-1985 f a m i n e ) t h a t t h e g r o w t h of t h e non- farm s e c t o r w i t h o u t a r e a s o n a b l e r a t e of g r o w t h in t h e f a r m s e c t o r m a y l e a d t o f o o d s h o r t a g e a n d d e c a y of t h e e x i s t i n g i n f r a s t r u c t u r e w h i c h c o u l d c h o k e o f f t h e g r o w t h of t h e n o n - f a r m s e c t o r by m a k i n g i t s l a b o u r supply l e s s t h a n i n f i n i t e l y e l a s t i c . T h e r e f o r e s o m e i n v e s t m e n t in a g r i c u l t u r e t o a c c e l e r a t e t h e g r o w t h of i t s s u r p l u s is d e e m e d t o b e i m p o r t a n t in t h e e a r l y s t a g e s of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . F u r t h e r - m o r e , J o h n s t o n a n d Mellor (1961) a n d Nicholls (1964) w e r e m o r e a w a r e of s u c h d i f f i c u l t i e s a n d a r g u e d i n c o n t r a s t t o L e w i s t h a t a g r i c u l t u r e is t h e m o t i v e f o r c e i n e c o n o m i c g r o w t h .

I t h a s b e e n a r g u e d t h a t t h e d i s a p p o i n t i n g r e c o r d s of r u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t d u r i n g t h e 1950's a n d 1 9 6 0 ' s c o u l d b e a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e w r o n g a s s u m p t i o n t h a t f a r m e r s c o u l d s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n c r e a s e t h e i r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y by a l l o c a t i n g e x i s t i n g r e s o u r c e s m o r e e f f i c i e n t l y a n d by a d o p t i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s a n d t e c h n o l o g i e s f r o m t h e i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s . T h e h u g e i n v e s t - m e n t i n a g r o - i n d u s t r i e s in t h e S u d a n d u r i n g t h e 1960's a n d t h e e a r l y 1970's i s o n l y a n e x a m p l e of t h e p r o m i n a n c e of s u c h i d e a s d u r i n g t h a t period.

N o t only in t h e S u d a n b u t i n o t h e r L D C 1 s i t is e v i d e n t t h a t t h e d i f f u s i o n a p p r o a c h h a s f a i l e d m i s e r a b l y i n solving t h e p r o b l e m s of f o o d s h o r t a g e a n d h a s s l o w e d a g r i c u l t u r a l g r o w t h .

T h e diffusion m o d e l of a g r i c u l t u r a l g r o w t h h a s t r i g g e r e d off t w o m a j o r d e p a r t u r e s in t h e l i t e r a t u r e o n a g r i c u l t u r a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n d u r i n g t h e 1970's a n d t h e 1980's. S c h u l t z a n d h i s a s s o c i a t e s w e r e i n t e r e s t e d in t h e i d e a t h a t d e s p i t e low l e v e l s of p e r c a p i t a o u t p u t , t r a d i t i o n a l a g r i c u l t u r e is c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a l l o c a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y . S c h u l t z (1964) g o e s o n t o a r g u e t h a t , " m a j o r i n c r e a s e s in p e r c a p i t a a g r i c u l t u r a l o u t p u t in t h e T h i r d World

could c o m e a b o u t only if f a r m e r s a r e provided with new m o r e productive f a c t o r s of production". F u r t h e r m o r e S c h u l t z called f o r a major s h i f t f r o m a g r i c u l t u r a l extension t o i n v e s t m e n t in agricultural r e s e a r c h and human capital.

Another a r e a of d e v e l o p m e n t in t h e l i t e r a t u r e is r e l a t e d t o t h e rapid g r o w t h of radical political economy a n d dependency models of under- development (Frank, 1966, Amin, 1973, 1974, 1976). This a p p r o a c h likewise managed t o shed s o m e valuable light o n t h e process of linkages and e x c h a n g e a r r a n g e m e n t s t h a t t i e d t h e p e a s a n t s t o t h e prevailing e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e s . T h e basic assumption however remained t h e s a m e with s o m e a l t e r a t i o n s , and o n e c a n t h e r e f o r e maintain with confidence t h a t t h e main lessons f r o m t h e 1960's t o t h e e a r l y 1970's y e r e t h a t technological c h a n g e must b e included a s a c r u c i a l c o m p o n e n t in both t h e theory and p r a c t i c e of r u r a l development. T h e official policies however did n o t show any c h a n g e of heart. T h e 1970's t h u s witnessed t h e flourishing of t h e c o n c e p t of development with equity which w a s a d i r e c t result of t h e c r i t i q u e launched by r a d i c a l and humanitarian approaches. These i d e a s w e r e f u r t h e r advanced t o p a v e t h e way f o r s o m e i m p o r t a n t t h e o r e t i c a l and policy d e b a t e s considering t h e i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n g r o w t h and i n c o m e distribution, e m p l o y m e n t o u t p u t trade- off, r u r a l e m p l o y m e n t and income g e n e r a t i n g a c t i v i t i e s t o g e t h e r with a n implicit consideration of food and nutritional a s p e c t s in d e v e l o p m e n t planning.

This new t h r u s t in t h e d e b a t e h a s implied a g r e a t e r r81e f o r agri- c u l t u r e in e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t through t h e following i m p o r t a n t channels.

Firstly, s i n c e i n c o m e s in both r u r a l and urban a r e a s a r e d e t e r m i n e d by food prices, i t h a s been recognised t h a t low productivity in a g r i c u l t u r e is t h e main c a u s e of p o v e r t y and a s such agricultural productivity is d e e m e d a t o p development priority. Secondly, t h e f a i l u r e of industries in LDC's t o provide a d e q u a t e e m p l o y m e n t opportunities t o m i g r a n t s h a s led t o m o r e c o n c e r n about expanding t h e r u r a l e m p l o y m e n t base through developing t h e agricultural sector. Thirdly, t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of bio- technologies has provided higher agricultural productivity and hence a s t r o n g c a s e f o r a positive r6le f o r a g r i c u l t u r e in t h e process of e c o n o m i c development.

Such considerations have l e f t a considerable i m p a c t on t h e r e c e n t c r i t i q u e of Sudan's a g r i c u l t u r a l development planning during t h e 1970's and t h e 1980's. Take, f o r example, Ali (1984) who observes t h a t , "it is

-1 7-

perhaps in recognition of t h e d o m i n a n t r61e of a g r i c u l t u r e in t h e e c o n o m y a n d i t s p o t e n t i a l a s a n e n g i n e of g r o w t h - especially e x p o r t o r i e n t e d g r o w t h

-

t h a t s u c c e s s i v e plans h a v e given i t t o p priority in public s e c t o r i n v e s t m e n t allocation". This i s c l e a r l y shown in T a b l e 1 which gives t h e p e r c e n t a g e distribution of planned public i n v e s t m e n t over t h e period f r o m 1970 t o 1983 on a s e c t o r a l basis. This period also c o v e r s t h e F i v e Y e a r Plan 1970- 1975 which w a s e x t e n d e d t o include 197611977 a n d t h e Six Y e a r P l a n 1977-1 98211 9 8 3 t o g e t h e r with t h e World Bank Rolling I n v e s t m e n t P r o g r a m m e s .

A c o m m e n t on a g r i c u l t u r a l i n v e s t m e n t policy is d e e m e d n e c e s s a r y s i n c e i t r e v e a l s t h e g e n e r a l t r e n d s in policy priorities which h a v e a d i r e c t bearing o n t h e g r o w t h of t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r . I t c a n b e observed t h a t i n v e s t m e n t in t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r h a s been very lop-sided. All invest- m e n t h a s been a l l o c a t e d t o t h e modern sub- sector which e n c o m p a s s e s t h e m e c h a n i z e d rainfed a n d t h e i r r i g a t e d sub- sectors. Inputs such a s t r a c t o r s , t h r e s h e r s , c o m b i n e h a r v e s t e r s a n d f e r t i l i z e r s a r e i m p o r t e d a n d included in t h e process of production. Moreover, i n v e s t m e n t in s e r v i c e s and infra- s t r u c t u r e has been c o n c e n t r a t e d mainly in t h e modern s e c t o r while t h e t r a d i t i o n a l sub- sector h a s been l e f t o u t . I m p r o v e m e n t s in biological t e c h - nology, a n i m a l t r a c t i o n , c r e d i t f a c i l i t i e s , promotion of m a r k e t i n g and i n s t i t u t i o n a l abilities a n d o t h e r viable inputs f o r s m a l l t r a d i t i o n a l f a r m e r s h a v e n o t been positively t h o u g h t of. T h e r e s u l t is obvious. T h e t r a d - itional s e c t o r which s u p p o r t s t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e Sudanese population has been neglected. I t a p p e a r s t h a t Sudanese d e v e l o p m e n t plans m a n i f e s t a n application of t h e m o d e r n i z a t i o n a p p r o a c h e s of t h e 1950's a n d t h e 1960's which I h a v e reviewed e a r l i e r . T h e m o d e r n s e c t o r enjoys a much b e t t e r - although n o t a d e q u a t e - s y s t e m of i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , m a r k e t i n g a n d s e r v i c e s a s well a s s o m e a c c e s s t o t h e f r u i t s of a d a p t i v e r e s e a r c h a n d technology.

However, t h e rigidity of t h e s t r u c t u r e s within which t h e s y s t e m o p e r a t e s h a v e p l a c a t e d t h e i r r i g a t e d s e c t o r while weakening t h e i n c e n t i v e s t o f a r m e r s .

The Structure of Incentives

F a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o i n a d e q u a c i e s in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c r e d i t and s t o r a g e h a v e c a u s e d f a r m e r s t h e loss of t h e i r c o m m a n d o v e r a s u b s t a n t i a l proportion of t h e i r produce. As i l l u s t r a t e d by T a b l e 2, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , m a r k e t i n g and

TABLE I

Sector A g r i c u l t u r e Industry I n f r a s t r u c t u r e S e r v i c e s Miscellaneous

T o t a l planned i n v e s t m e n t (Ls M ) of I, c u r r e n t p r i c e s

Y

Original Five Year Plan

3 8 17 2 0 2 0 6

Agricultural S e c r o r Policy R a t i n g : Public Sector lnvesrmenr 1970- 1983

Amended Five Six Year Year Plan Plan

2 3 2 7

Rolling Programme 1979180-1981/82

2 8 2 5 1 8 1 5 1 3

Rolling Programme 1983184-1985186

3 2 16 2 3 9 20

Source: A.A. Ali (1984), A d a p t e d f r o m World Bank (1983), Vol. 2.

TABLE 2

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C o s t s f o r Agricultural C o m m o d i t i e s a s a P e r c e n t a g e of N e t Value of O u t p u t (Both a t Broader Prices)

a b

Source: World Bank (1983), Vol. 3: 59)

a = T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t f r o m fields t o P o r t Sudan a s a p e r c e n t a g e of FOB cost.

b = Figures in b r a c k e t s g i v e t o t a l m a r k e t i n g , distribution a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t .

*

T h e r a t i o s f o r both t h e t r a d i t i o n a l a n d m o d e r n sub- sector look c o m p a r a b l e , basically b e c a u s e t h e y a r e based on n e t returns.

D u e t o t h e high c o s t of i n p u t in t h e m o d e r n sub- sector, r a t i o s based on gross r e t u r n s will b e m u c h higher f o r t h e t r a d i t i o n a l sub- sector c o m p a r e d t o t h e modern sub- sector.