Expanding Autonomy
-A qualitative case study on the EZLN and the expansion of autonomous communities in 2019 -
Viktor Göranson
Uppsala University, Department of Government Bachelor Thesis
Development Studies C Autumn 2019
Supervisor: Anders Sjögren Word Count: 11 714 Page Count: 35 2020-04-16
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ABSTRACT
In August 2019 the indigenous social movement Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional (EZLN), decided to deepen their autonomy project and thereby to intensify their conflict with the Mexican state. The group that emerged in 1994 has for almost three decades been in conflict with the Mexican government. In the last decade, the conflict has been on hold until the group announced their expansion with 11 new autonomous zones in the south of the county. This thesis puts that decision in a political opportunity structure framework; what aspects of the framework can explain the unexpected decision by the movement? A qualitative text analysis of EZLN communique's finds that the movement took advantages of several political opportunities. Most significantly, the construction of the Mayan Train constituted reasons for adopting a confrontational strategy towards the government. Changes in the level of repression towards the movement have facilitated the confrontative decision made by the movement. When controlling for two alternative explanation theories, this study establishes the political opportunity structure as having a stronger explanation factor. This thesis aims to contribute to the literature on political opportunity framework and to revitalize the interest in the EZLN.
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TABLE OF CONTENT
ABSTRACT ... 2
1. INTRODUCTION ... 4
2. RESEARCH QUESTION ... 5
3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK & PREVIOUS RESEARCH ... 6
3.1 Social movements ... 6
3.2 Political opportunity structure ... 6
3.2.1 The four aspects of political opportunity structure ... 7
3.2.2 Questions to the material ... 9
3.3 Previous research ... 10
4. RESEARCH DESIGN ... 11
4.1 Case study ... 11
4.2 Limitations... 12
4.3 Material & Time period... 13
4.4 Strategies for analysing the data ... 14
4.5 Operationalisation... 16
5. BACKGROUND ... 17
6. ANALYSIS ... 19
6.1 Openness or closure to new actors ... 19
6.2 Stability or instability of political alignments ... 21
6.3 Influential allies or supporters ... 23
6.4 Changes in repression or facilitation ... 25
7. CONCLUSION ... 29
8. REFERENCES ... 31
APPENDIX ... 35
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1. INTRODUCTION
Mexico has the largest indigenous population in Latin America, 21.5 % of Mexicans live in indigenous households (IWGIA, 2019). Historically, this group has been excluded from influence in Mexican politics. Ever since the Spaniards colonized the area that is today the United States of Mexico, indigenous people have organized themselves in groups to get influence in politics. One of the most significant of those groups, and also the most recent, is the Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional (EZLN) from the southern state of Chiapas.
Ever since their emergence in 1994, the EZLN has been in opposition to the government, claiming that the Mexican state is violating indigenous rights (MRG, 2020). In the last two decades, this group has established autonomous zones in the south of Mexico, talking the question of political representation into their own hands.
On the 17th of August 2019, the EZLN released a communiqué stating that the organisation would expand its autonomous communities in the state of Chiapas (EZLN, 2019a). The movement that emerged as a peasant revolutionary movement has in the last decade adopted an increasingly left-wing, anti-capitalism, rhetoric (Máiz, 2010). In addition to the 32
communities that were already established, the decision to expand meant 11 new autonomous zones. Seven of these new zones were Caracoles (Spanish for conch snails), functioning as regional capitals. Now, there were 43 self-proclaimed autonomous Zapatista zones in the south of Mexico. This decision constitutes the movement´s first major decision regarding the question of autonomy since they first established their communities in 2003. Why is it that the EZLN is doing this right know when Mexico for the first time in history has a president that is elected on a leftist agenda, a president that claims to be representing the marginalized people in Mexican society? The movement that declared war against the state in 1994 seeks new ways to get influence in contemporary Mexico. Twenty-six years after their rebellion, the EZLN manifests its resistance to president Andrés Manuel López Obrador´s (ubiquitously known as AMLO) administration. At the same time, the government seems to prefer to ignore the movement.
The EZLN has over the years drawn significant interest from scholars on social movements.
The literature on the movement has over the year covered several aspects; the circumstances that triggered its emergence (Muñoz, 2006), its change in political discourse (Máiz, 2010), its role in the democratization of Mexico (Mattiace, 2012), its role as an indigenous movement (Saldaña-Portillo, 2003), the failure surrounding the peace negotiation with the government (Mattiace, 2003) and the phase when the EZLN first established their autonomous zones
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(Inclán, 2008; Stahler-Sholk, 2007). Recently, however, the group has not enjoyed as much attention from scholars as the first ten years since their rebellion in 1994.
This thesis puts the decision by EZLN to expand its territory in a social movement context, more specifically: a political opportunity structure, framework and applies analytical tools to identify the reasons behind the decision. By conducting a qualitative text-analysis of official communiqués from the EZLN, this study hopes to deepen the understanding of the decision made by the movement. The decision by EZLN is analysed as a consciously chosen strategy to take advantage of the political opportunity that surrounds them.
The purpose of this in-depth case study is twofold. It hopes to contribute to the literature on social movement and political opportunities. Through the application of the framework on contemporary movements and their behaviour, the theory keeps its relevance as a tool for understanding social movements. Additionally, this study hopes to revitalize the interest in the Zapatista movement. Although they have lost the publicity the group had in the 90s, their struggle is as active as ever, and the story of the Zapatistas is a story about challenges in contemporary Mexico.
This paper is outlined accordingly: First, the research question is presented, then the key concepts will be elaborated upon and previous research made on the EZLN will be presented in the theoretical framework & previous research section. Next follows a description of how this study approaches the material in the research design section. A background section precedes the analysis to offer a historical background for the reader. The analysis is divided into four parts, each for every political opportunity structure aspect that is addressed. In the conclusion section, the main points drawn from the analysis will be presented.
2. RESEARCH QUESTION
Can the decision by EZLN to expand their autonomous communities in August 2019 be explained by changes in the political opportunity structure, and if so, by which aspects of it?
- Openness or closure to new actors
- Stability or instability of political alignments - Influential allies or supporters
- Changes in repression or facilitation
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3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK & PREVIOUS RESEARCH
In this section, the key concepts of the study will be presented. The central concepts used will be defined and further elaborated upon, and the four aspects of political opportunity structure will be introduced. At the end of this section, previous research related to the EZLN will be presented to further strengthen the relevance of applying the theoretical framework.
3.1 Social movements
During the past decades, there has been an increased amount of research within the field of social movements (Snow, Soule, Kriesi and McCammon, 2019:4). The field is broad and gathers scholars from different perspectives. Questions of why people join protest movements or organize themselves in different forms to achieve political or social change have since long occupied scholars, sometimes without even engaging with the concept of social movements (Della Porta and Diani, 2015:2). To specify how this study makes use of the concept of social movements, a definition follows. This study uses the definition developed by Snow, Soule, Kriesi and McCammon, namely “that movement be considered as challengers to, or
defenders, of existing institutional authority […] or patterns of cultural authority, such as systems of beliefs or practices reflective of those beliefs” (2019:7). In this definition,
movements could be analysed not only as a challenger to existing power structures but also as a defender of their autonomy. Social movements can take on a wide array of forms, and this definition is general enough to encompass most groups while specific enough in what differs a social movement from a different kind of movement. Movements that do not position themselves to the institutional authority and/or does not possess any cultural authority are not to be considered as social movements in this definition.
3.2 Political opportunity structure
The theoretical framework of this thesis consists of the established political opportunity structure approach. Historically, this approach has been frequently applied to understand social movements. The concept of political opportunity structure was introduced by Eisinger (1973). This concept has been widely applied by scholars when the behaviour of a particular social movement is in focus; the explanation of the behaviour can often to be found in the constraints that surround them. This study makes use of Tarrow´s (1996:54) definition, that political opportunity structures refers to “consistent – but not necessarily formal, permanent, or national – signals to social or political actors which either encourage or discourage them from using their internal resources to form social movements”. As implied by this definition,
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political opportunity structure can work both ways; it can create a situation which the
movement perceives as an opportunity to adopt a more confrontational strategy, but it can also restrain a movement from taking a certain action and adopt a more moderate strategy. It is the context surrounding the movement that shapes the space in which the social movement operates. Furthermore, in order to lead to collective action, a change must occur in one or several of the four aspects of political opportunity structure that are perceived as an opening by the movement. In the next section, the four aspects that will be used in this study are presented.
3.2.1 The four aspects of political opportunity structure
Tarrow and McAdam have developed four of the most important aspects that could alter political opportunities; (1) openness or closure to new actors, (2) stability or instability of political alignments, (3) influential allies or supporters and (4) changes in repression or facilitation (2019:25). This study will consequently apply this theoretical framework to the EZLN case to investigate if it can explain the decision by the group to expand its autonomous communities in August 2019.
A change in any of the four aspects could, in a variety of ways, influence decisions taken by social movements. It is here clarified how a change in each aspect could encourage or discourage social movements to adopt a particular action, an action that could be either confrontational or moderate towards their adversary. The aspects cover different perspectives of the playing field that surrounds social movements. However, it must be mentioned that some aspects are at times overlapping. These overlapping tendencies are discussed at the end of this section.
If found that the first aspect, openness or closure to new actors, has changed during the examined period, it could constitute grounds for a social movement to adopt a different tactic.
This aspect refers to how new actors enter the polity, this could be done through immigration or changes in class structure but is more often done through the suffrage as Tarrow and McAdam point out (ibid). For example, if a government is responsive to a political solution with a social movement that has challenged state authority, that could reduce the willingness of the social movement to adapt any confrontational tactics towards the government and instead take on a more moderate approach. However, if the challenger, i.e. the social
movement, remain politically excluded, it could potentially lead to a confrontational approach
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towards the government. If the door to contend on the political area is closed, social movements will most probably search for other ways to gain influence.
Regarding a change in the second aspect, stability or instability of political alignments aspect, Tarrow and McAdam state that “stable political alignments are unlikely to leave much space for insurgencies” (2019:25). One could expect that a period of political turmoil in any polity would provide feasible grounds for social movements to mobilize for collective action and confront the government. This could be because the political elites may be occupied with forming coalitions or simply because the social movement perceives the government as weak in a period of electoral transition. On the other hand, social movements could have incentives to adopt a more moderate approach if they perceive the government as in control of the situation. A stable government leaves less space for outsiders to confront them; instead, movements that questions their authority could be thwarted or even punished.
The success of social movements depends on their ability to build international and domestic support for their cause. This relates to the third aspect: influential allies or supporters.
According to Tarrow and McAdam, a polity often consist of `insiders´ and `outsiders´. Actors outside the polity can get their ideas embraced by those inside which could provide
opportunities for the outside actor (Tarrow and McAdam, 2019:26). If any social movement manages to increase its popular support or obtains important allies, it could contribute to a confrontational decision by the group, due to increased strength. If no change in support or allies can be observed, it is less likely that this aspect can explain a confrontational decision made by a social movement. In that case, it would be more reasonable for a movement to adopt a more moderate position.
At last, the fourth aspect, changes in repression or facilitation is defined by Tarrow and McAdam as an “attempt by a regime or its agents to end movement challenges through physical control” (2019:26). This could take the form of a change in policy from the government in relation to a social movement. An example of such a shift could be the adaptation of any kind of social control by the state towards any social movement. If such social control were to occur, such form of repression could constitute reasons for the
movement to adopt a more confrontational tactic towards the government and respond to their shrinking space. Likewise, a more friendly, facilitating, approach from the government would probably encourage social movements to seek a more moderate path and, for example, try to increase its political representation instead of challenging state authority outside of the political arena.
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By applying these four aspects of political opportunity, this study seeks to investigate if they can explain a strategical decision made by a social movement. Some of the aspects are more interconnected than others. Three aspects; the first aspect openness or closure to new actors, the second aspect stability or instability of political alignments and the fourth aspect changes in repression or facilitation, refers to the relation between the social movement and their main adversary, often the government of a state. It is often the adversaries that are the main actors in shaping what opportunities that are at hand for the social movement. Because the aspects are somewhat interconnected, they may find similar explanatory patterns.
Aspects could potentially interact with each other; one aspect could function as a catalyst for another aspect. For example, the aspect openness or closure to new actors could affect the level of political representation for the social movement. Political representation could, in turn, affect the changes in repression or facilitation aspect and thus change the conditions for action. This is a problem that is difficult to elude. This study strives to be as transparent as possible about these limits to isolate one factor of single most importance. What is at focus is what the social movement itself perceive as the main reasons for adopting a specific strategy.
Limitations will be further elaborated upon in the following section, the design section.
From the onset, this study treats the four aspects as having equal importance. Even though every social movement is unique and is affected differently by every aspect, one cannot value one aspect more than another without investigating what importance that aspect has had on the sequence of events.
3.2.2 Questions to the material
This study will pose four questions to the material. All four questions are similar, but for transparency reasons, they will here be presented.
- Can the aspect openness or closure to new actors explain the decision taken by the EZLN in August 2019?
- Can the aspect stability or instability of political alignments explain the decision taken by the EZLN in August 2019?
- Can the aspect influential allies or supporters explain the decision taken by the EZLN in August 2019?
- Can the aspect changes in repression or facilitation explain the decision taken by the EZLN in August 2019?
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3.3 Previous research
To further strengthening the relevance of applying this framework, this section will present previous research that has used a similar framework to understand the Zapatista movement better. Previous research has applied the political opportunity structure to the development of the Zapatista movement in different ways. Gunderson (2019) examines the four major
indigenous revolts in Chiapas, tracing back to the Spanish conquest over the Americas in relation to the political opportunity structure framework. Inclán (2008) analysed the Zapatista cycle of protest in the years 1994-2003 through the same framework. Additionally, Muñoz (2006) studied the political opportunities that allowed EZLN to mobilize for the uprising in 1994. Muñoz found that the EZLN took advantage of several political opportunities that surrounded the EZLN during their emergence. Most significantly, the implementation of NAFTA generated problems which constituted grounds for collective action. This possibility to mobilize around one issue that affected living conditions in Chiapas created political
openings in the system. In combination with other political opportunities, it created a situation in which the Mexican government neither could ignore nor repress collective action. By applying the political opportunity structure framework on the decision by the EZLN to expand their autonomous zones in August 2019, this thesis seeks to further build on the previous research on the movements strategical decisionmaking.
Previous studies have studied the Zapatistas from different perspectives. The Zapatistas is a social movement that consists of several bodies. In this study, the focus is on their armed wing, Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional (EZLN). This part of the movement is obeying under the civilian general command, the Comité Clandestino Revolucionario
Indígena (CCRI). The leaders in the committee must be civilians and are accountable to their respective community assemblies (Vergara-Camus, 2007). Henceforth, the Zapatista
communiqués that are in focus in this study are issued by its armed wing but can be said represent the views of the Zapatista communities.
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4. RESEARCH DESIGN
4.1 Case study
In order to answer the proposed research question, this study will take the form of an in-depth case study. If one seeks to understand the first confrontational decision by the EZLN
regarding their autonomy in 16 years, one needs to investigate what kind of factors that could have induced the decision. It is relevant to formulate the reasons behind because few had expected the decision by EZLN in August 2019. Furthermore, the fact that no other study has covered the decision by the movement to expand to this date makes it an explorative study and puts additional weight behind the chosen research design. Thus, this case study will offer an empirical contribution to the recent development of the EZLN.
The use of an in-depth case study has several advantages over studies covering a greater number of analysis units. As Gerring points out, the use of case study research is to prefer over large-N studies if our objective is to explore the active causality further. Thus we could
“locate the intermediate factors lying between some structural cause and its purported effect”
(Gerring, 2006:45). The methodology used here to tackle the question is sensitive to the specific context that exists. In this case, there is a higher value in creating a thick description of the sequence of events instead of broadening the scope of investigation and risk missing some aspects of the specific cases (ibid:49). Valuable case studies have been conducted before on the Zapatistas. Ross (2019) single-case study represent an excellent example of an in-depth study on the EZLN and their base of support over the years.
Furthermore, if the subject in focus for a study occurred for the first time, a single case study could be preferred over other types of designs (Gerring, 2006:40). The sudden EZLN
expansion of autonomous communities represents a whole new tactic in how they achieve their objectives and no other study has previously covered the event. By mapping out plausible factors behind the expansion of EZLN territory, this study hopes to contribute in part to the extensive literature available on social movements in general and an increased understanding of the EZLN in particular.
This study is aware that a qualitative study of this nature in part depends upon the interpretation of the researcher. In comparison with a more quantitative study, one could argue that the design proposed here has lower reliability. This is because the interpretation of the text lies within the researcher; there is a higher risk that a different result is found if the study ought to be replicated. By having clear questions that are consequently asked to the
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texts, this study hopes to move the focus beyond the interpretation of the researcher and instead let the material speak for itself.
Methodology is always a trade-off, and the strengths with the proposed research design also have some limitations to it. Those limitations are further elaborated upon in the following section.
4.2 Limitations
Although within-case analysis can find causal processes in specific cases, some scholars argue that such analysis cannot contribute to building theories. Ray argues that a correlation
between variables in a single case could, by definition, not be a correlation since a such “by definition refers to covariation […] of variables across a number of cases” (1995:132). Here it is argued that a case study often entails several analysis units that need to be analysed and put together to explain why a particular outcome occurred. Esaisson et al. point out that case studies seldom consist of one unit to analyse; instead, it consists of several units who often differ in characteristic and time (2017:109). In this study, the units that are analysed are the different events that have affected their choice of tactics. Moreover, as Gerring points out, the single case studies “allows for the generation of a great number of hypothesis” (Gerring, 2006:41) compared to cross-case studies. This is due to the thicker set of material that is possible to examine in single case studies.
On a further note, case study research also suffers from its limited external validity compared to other research designs. This is because it only entails one case and thus cannot claim to be able to generalise its finding to other contexts. On the other hand, case studies are often better at finding the veracity behind a specific outcome than other types of design. This is because its design enables a more intense study of a single case (Gerring, 2006:43).
This study is not of a generalizing character. However, the findings of this study could increase understanding of similar cases. Although, the EZLN is treated here as a unique movement shaped by particular events in its history, the increased understanding about its choice of strategy could in future research be compared to movements of similar nature. The use of a establish theoretical framework facilitates the comparison to other strategically important decisions taken by social movements.
Accordingly, there is no consensus regarding the weight of the contribution of a single case study. It is a methodological trade-off, where strengths and weaknesses must be considered in relation to the purpose of the study. A case study is probably not the best choice if the purpose
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is to find causality. However, it may be convenient if the purpose is to generate a greater understanding of the causal mechanism at hand. In this case, the purpose is to explore the reasons behind an unexpected decision. Thus, the single case study could be of use.
4.3 Material & Time period
In order to find the plausible reasons behind the sudden expansion of EZLN, this study will make use of qualitative text analysis. This study will cover the time period from May 28, 2017, to August 19, 2019. This period includes the two years leading up to the decision as well as the immediate aftermath, i.e. the government´s response to the decision. The time period in this study has been set to two years due to a shortage of time. However, due to the high intensity of publications by EZLN during the period, enough material is available to analyse. The reason the start of this study has been set to May 2017 is the communiqué in which the EZLN announced their formal endorsement of a presidential candidate. A historical decision in the history of the Zapatistas.
Several different sources will be included in this study. Most importantly, 45 EZLN
communiqués published on their website during the analysed time-period will be examined.
The EZLN translates all their communiqués into English, it is these texts that have been analysed in this study. These documents represent an unfiltered viewpoint of the movement and serve well to understand how the group positions themselves to events and actors around them. However, the use of these documents comes with some limitations. It is the official communication by the EZLN that is at the centre in this study; the choice of material does not permit a review of different viewpoints within the Zapatista communities nor does it offer a possibility to assess the veracity in the texts. The purpose is to identify the opinions of the EZLN that could serve to strengthen or weaken the explanation given by the political opportunity structure aspects. The communiqués have been systematically analysed to find plausible explanations in relation to the political opportunity structure. The content of the communiqués is varied; some carry a political message while other communiqués invite to cultural events hosted by the Zapatistas.
Additionally, the National Development Plan of Mexico will be analysed (Presidencia de la Republica, 2019). In this plan, the AMLO administration presents its solutions to the challenges that Mexico is facing today while criticising the previous neoliberal policies pursued by every Mexican government since the late 1980s. The plan consists of several ambitious development projects that together will constitute the fourth transformation. By
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referring to their policies as the forth transformation, AMLO seeks to join the group of transformations that have shaped Mexico over the years; the Mexican Independence, the liberal reforms carried out by Benito Juarez in the nineteenth century and the Mexican Revolution, events that inherently changed the nature of the state (Hanrahan and Aroch Fugellie, 2019). The EZLN is not mentioned in the development plan, but the project Tren Maya that the government seeks to realize as a part of the national transformation is
described. This source has been chosen to provide an understanding of why the government wants to pursue the Tren Maya and what the project consists of.
Other sources include research articles and a recording of a press conference with AMLO on 19 August2019 which is one of the few times AMLO has publicly commented on the
movement. The development plan and the press conferences are analysed to examine how the government positions itself to the movement. The polices of the government could affect the four political opportunity dimensions accounted for in this study and, hence, influence the prerequisites on which the EZLN base their decisions.
News sources have been left out in the analysis. This is because the purpose is to encapsulate the movement´s perception of changes in the political opportunities that determine what kind of strategy the group could pursue. When the EZLN feels the need to communicate something to the world, they are doing it through a communiqué. If the purpose is to investigate the movement´s view of something, it is appropriate to analyse their own publications.
4.4 Strategies for analysing the data
The material will be analysed in-depth in order to find the explanations to the research question. At first, the material of the analysis must be classified. According to Widén (2015:180), four different types of texts could be used; political texts, societal texts, school and education texts and private texts (my translation). Furthermore, Widén argues that a text could be analysed through three different dimensions (Widén, 2015:179-80). Hereby follows a description of each dimension.
The first dimension refers to the examination of the intention of the actor behind the text (Widén, 2015:179). This is the preferable strategy if the purpose of the analysis is to create a greater understanding of the actors that have produced the texts. Through analysing the texts, the researcher could create a greater knowledge about what values are attached to different concepts.
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The second dimension draws focus to the content of the text itself (Widén, 2015:179). If the researcher is interested in the literary content or linguistic qualities of a particular text, this is the preferred strategy. In this dimension, the focus is on what the text is trying to tell us about something. Thus, the focus is on the actual content of the text, not on the originator.
The third dimension is preferable if the researcher seeks to interpret what the text says about society (Widén, 2015:179-80). The purpose could be to understand how a society is organised socially, economically or culturally. For example, it could be of interest to use this dimension if the purpose is to describe power structures in society.
Widén also formulates four steps in the process of text analysis. First, the researcher must identify a problem that needs to be analysed. Preferably, a question should be asked to the material to solve the identified problem. In this study, the questions to the text are what sort of political opportunities, if any, were active when the EZLN made their decision in August 2019. The purpose is to find support if one, or several, of the political opportunity aspects were active. If so, to what degree? Second, the texts that serve as the basis of the analysis have to be chosen. The 45 EZLN publications serve as the main basis of the analysis in this case. Third, the researcher needs to create analytical themes to decide what parts of the material that will be analysed. In this study, the reviewed documents are all from within the chosen time-frame. Fourth, and lastly, the final step is to conduct the actual analysis. This is done through a detailed reading of the text and categorization of its content (Widén,
2015:185-89).
This study will analyse the data through the framework designed by Widén. Since the EZLN is analysed here as a social movement and not as a political actor, the texts analysed will be considered as a societal text. The text describes the stance of the movement on specific issues as well as how they perceive other actors, actors that could alter their political opportunities.
Concerning the dimensions analysed, the focus will be on the actors behind the texts and the societal structures expressed by the texts. Thus, dimensions number one and three will be at the centre of this analysis. By analysing the material, this study hopes to identify EZLN´s objective as a movement and their perception of the situation in which they find themselves.
Also, this thesis seeks to cover the third dimension. Namely, to create understanding about the societal structure that affects the strategy which EZLN has chosen to adapt. It is the context that surrounds the EZLN that shapes the political opportunities structures that the movement must position themselves to.
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4.5 Operationalisation
The chosen material will be systematically read and analysed through the political opportunity framework, developed by Tarrow and McAdam (2019). To be able to use the framework, it must be clear how the dimensions can manifest themselves in the context of the EZLN.
Therefore, an operationalisation of the dimensions now follows.
By openness or closure to new actors, this study refers to circumstances that could have affected the level of political influence given to the movement. The material will be analysed to see if there has been any change on the level of political representation for the EZLN during the examined time period.
The material will be analysed to examine if there are any stability or instability of political alignments within the political elites. An important factor here is whether the Mexican polity could be regarded as relatively stable during the investigated time period. Stability would provide less space for outsiders to challenge the government.
Further, influential allies or supporters refers in this case to the number of supporters that EZLN has and the resources that the allies possess. A change in this dimension could have influenced ideas within EZLN or affect, in both ways, their capacity to act. Increased access to resources and could increase the likelihood of succeeding with confrontational tactics.
Finally, by changes in repression or facilitation, this study will look for factors within the government, or its agents, that have affected the social control of the EZLN. For example, a change in the government´s strategy in how to handle the EZLN may have induced a change in tactic from the movement itself.
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5. BACKGROUND
The historical background of the EZLN could start when they first became public to the world. However, to understand their appearance and their demands, one must look even further back in time. Khasnabish (2010:65-6) argues that the EZLN rebellion needs to be understood in a context of centuries-long discrimination. The name of the group is a homage to Emiliano Zapata, one of the most famous figures from the Mexican Revolution, who fought for indigenous rights and land reform. The uprising in 1994 was a result of accumulated indigenous grievances during five centuries characterized by “exploration, oppression, neglect, racism, and outright genocide” (ibid:65). Hereby follows a brief description of the group’s history.
On the 1st of January 1994, the EZLN caught the Mexican government by surprise when they seized seven towns in Chiapas, the southernmost state of Mexico. Poorly equipped (some only with wooden sticks), they manage to stand ground for 12 days until a cease-fire was
negotiated. This group were not like any other armed group in Mexico, this group claimed to be a movement representing the since long marginalized indigenous people of Mexico, and their appearance gathered support from all over Mexico. From the main square of each of the occupied towns, the EZLN declared war against the government in Mexico City. Together they proclaimed the “First Declaration of the Lacandón Jungle” (EZLN, 1994) in which they made clear that they rebelled against centuries of injustices and oppression. The main points of concern in this declaration as factors justifying the uprising were; work, land, roof, food, health, education, independence, freedom, democracy, justice and peace (ibid).
It was no coincidence that the EZLN rebelled against the government at the same time as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into force. With their famous motto
“¡Ya Basta!” they were loud critics of the neoliberal politics adopted by Mexico since the late 1980s. In Chiapas, where the agricultural sector is predominant, medium and small-sized producers could not compete with the heavily subsidized imports from the United States (Vergara-Camus, 2009). While some groups benefitted from NAFTA, mainly high-skilled labour and urban populations, others were forced to migrate or to become subsistence farmers.
The Zapatista autonomy project can be divided into four phases (Stahler-Sholk, 2007). One year after the uprising, the first phase began when the group publicly announced their presence in 38 municipalities throughout Chiapas. The second phase is connected to the negotiations with the central government in 1996, known as the San Andrés Accords. After
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these negotiations, the EZLN refused to recognize the newly elected officials and instead choose their own community leaders. When the government chose not to ratify the result of the negotiations, the San Andrés Accords, due to its alleged unconstitutionality, the third phase began. When the government ignored the deal that would recognize the autonomy of indigenous communities, the Zapatistas further institutionalized its newly established community governments, making them de facto autonomous. Instead of relying on the government to ensure autonomy, the Zapatistas began to create their own autonomy
structures. After a period of silence, the fourth phase began when five Caracoles was created in August 2003. In these Caracoles, Juntas de Buen Gobierno (good government councils) were constructed. These areas had their own governance structures and refused to recognize the central government in Mexico City while rejecting any form of government aid. The EZLN had, in fact, built autonomous zones inside the country that refused to give them any sort of autonomy.
Since the EZLN presented themselves to the world, the movement has hosted several meetings to discuss the situation they and similar movements finds themselves in. The National Indigenous Congress has been the main forum for these meetings. It was created by the Zapatistas with the mission to link their struggle to a broader social movement through organising forums and formulating common demands for indigenous groups (Stahler-Sholk, 2007).
By isolating themselves from the political arena, the interest surrounding the movement has declined in the last centuries. However, their role as a critic against the political development in Mexico has been a constant. Through their website, they continuously publish their texts and announce their major decision as a movement. An example of one such announcement was the historic decision to endorse a presidential candidate in May 2017. It is that decision that constitutes the start for this analysis. A decision that could have induced a new, fifth, phase in the Zapatista quest for autonomy.
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6. ANALYSIS
In this section, the result of the text analysis will be presented systematically. Arguments will be presented related to the importance of each of Tarrow and McAdam´s framework for political opportunity. The 45 communiqués that have been analysed constitute the basis of the overall assessment of the EZLN strategy in the four sections.
6.1 Openness or closure to new actors
How important were the organisation of the state and the opportunity given to actors outside the political parties in the decision by EZLN to expand? It is of interest here to discover the perception of the EZLN regarding the possibilities or constraints that surrounded the electoral nomination of María de Jesús Patricio Martínez in May 2017.
On the 28th of May 2017, the EZLN officially announced that they would be endorsing an independent candidate for the presidential election the following year (EZLN, 2017). María de Jesús Patricio Martínez (known as Marichuy) is an indigenous activist, a traditional medicine healer and a human rights activist was chosen by the Zapatista organ the National Indigenous Congress as their candidate for the presidential election of 2018. María de Jesús Patricio Martínez´s official title became representative indigenous spokeswoman. After her candidacy, the work began to collect the required signatures needed according to Mexican electoral law. The possibility for independent candidates to run for the presidency is relatively new in Mexico. It was only in 2014 that the National Electoral Institute opened up for the possibility to run for the presidency without the support of a political party (SEGOB, 2014).
The announcement is historically interesting for the EZLN because it represents a shift in tactic for the movement. Since 2003, the movement has consequently turned their backs on the political establishment and instead created their own, autonomous, bodies of governance.
In May 2017, they left that path and decided that it was time to make their voice heard
through the suffrage. In the announcement made by the EZLN, the decision was motivated as an answer to the “intensification of the capitalist war” that they claim the government is waging (EZLN, 2017). Has the attempt to get Patricio Martínez elected anything to do with the recent expansion?
“We have decided not to wait for the inevitable disaster brought by the capitalist hitmen that govern us, but to go on the offensive […]” (ibid)
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This is how EZLN justify their endorsement of María de Jesús Patricio Martínez. They fear that their situation would be unbearable if they do not try to get political representation.
Further, they predict that the situation will only get worse and, hence, action is needed as soon as possible.
“On that path we see only an expanding war, a horizon of death and destruction for our lands, our families, and our lives, and the absolute certainty that this will only get worse -much worse- for everyone” (EZLN, 2017).
Consequently, the EZLN is referring to the government as those above, the power structures that have systematically silenced the voice of the indigenous people to keep them
marginalised.
“This is the destiny that those above have built for us, […] in order to keep us isolated and alone in our desolation as they consolidate the appropriation of entire territories in the mountains, valleys, coasts and cities” (ibid).
The text implies that the enemy, the capitalist state, is satisfied with having the EZLN weak and isolated in the periphery; not meddling with government interest.
The electoral reform in 2014 made it possible for independent candidates to be registered for the presidential election. However, candidates must gather signatures from 2% of the
registered voters in their electoral district. The EZLN and María de Jesús Patricio Martínez did not manage to reach these levels. Hence, the indigenous representative did not reach the ballot boxes. There has been criticism directed towards the National Electoral Institute regarding how supporters are registered. Patricio Martínez criticized the system at the
beginning of her campaign, claiming that the digital electronic system used to register voters were too advanced for the poor to use, who have little knowledge about how to use such systems (Conde, 2017:3). Additionally, Marichuy criticized the high cost to cast votes with telephones and the rules of National Electoral Institute of what constituted an identification document (ibid). These factors made it increasingly difficult for the EZLN candidate to gather enough signatures amongst its mostly rural and indigenous sympathizers and, thus,
represented a political system closed for other actors to compete within.
The EZLN tried to change strategy and compete in the national election of 2018, but they failed. The failure was due to a complicated registration process and a lack of support for their candidate. It is possible to see the expansion of autonomous zones in the light of this. The new
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tactic that the movement tried in 2017 did not turn out as they had hoped. Instead, the movement had to forge another strategy to secure its objectives. However, the EZLN has never communicated that the decision to expand is due to its failure to reach the ballot boxes two years earlier.
Based on the analysis of the announcement made by EZLN, it is here argued that the relative inaccessibility of the Mexican political system that the group experienced 2017 has affected the perception of the movement about the possibility to compete with the political parties in the electoral area. This event could have contributed to the change of strategy to a more confrontational one, represented by the intensification of their autonomy project. However, it cannot be excluded that other factors were active in the decision.
6.2 Stability or instability of political alignments
As elaborated upon in the theoretical section, one ground for collective action for social movement could be a period of turmoil in the government or merely an electoral transition that changes the conditions for action. Can the level of stability of the political alignment affect the strategy chosen by the EZLN? Indeed, the decision of the movement was taken just nine months after AMLO´s administration took office. Could it be that the election of AMLO constituted grounds for the decision by the EZLN to expand?
AMLO and the EZLN have a history with each other. When the EZLN emerged in 1994, AMLO, then a member of the social democratic party “Party of the Democratic Revolution”
(PRD), had an interest in indigenous rights questions. He travelled to Chiapas to listen to the demands of the movement and took a picture alongside their leader, Subcomandante Marcos1. For an outsider, AMLO and EZLN appear to have several things in common; they are both considered to be on the left of the Mexican political spectrum, they claim to be representing the poor and are indigenous rights advocates. However, there is an apparent incompatibility between the two regarding how to improve the situation for the indigenous people in Mexico.
As EZLN has been deeply critical of AMLO and his policies, it is of interest to this study to discover the motives behind this scepticism.
When the EZLN first announced the expansion of their autonomous zones, AMLO was positive to the decision. The following statement was made during the morning press
1 Picture of ALMO and Subcomandante Marcos. Posted on his Twitter account. See appendix for picture.
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conference of the 19th of August 2019 by AMLO regarding the EZLN expansion of their autonomous zones:
“Yesterday a Zapatista communiqué stated that they will expand, that they will create more autonomous zones. Welcome, go ahead! Because that means working for the benefit of communities and peoples. The only thing we do not want is violence”2 (López Obrador, 2019, my translation).
However, the friendship is not mutual. The EZLN has repeatedly criticized AMLO in their communiqués. Hereby follows a selection of statements made by EZLN regarding AMLO:
“What we are telling you now is that the guy in power now is uttering
absurdities, just look at what he says – that he´s going to govern for both the rich and poor. Only a crazy person, someone sick in the head could say such a thing, because his mind is not working, his brain isn’t functioning” (EZLN, 2019b).
“That trickster in power now, what is his game? That he pretends to be with the people of Mexico, trying to deceive the originary peoples by kneeling upon the earth to ask permission for his projects. He thinks all the originary peoples are going to believe that charade. Here we say no, on the contrary, we don’t buy it”
(ibid)
The quotes are only a selection of what EZLN has formulated about AMLO. Quotes like these occur regularly in the communiqués; the EZLN does not seem to agree with AMLO on a single issue. However, EZLN does not make any reference to the stability of the political system. Even though it could be argued that AMLO´s entry in government has led to internal changes and created uncertainty regarding where the government stands on specific issues. It could be that EZLN took advantage of the electoral transition and launched their expansion of autonomous communities as an answer to the inauguration of a president with whom they disagree.
If the purpose of the EZLN were to utilize an electoral transition and make an offensive move towards an unprepared government, the EZLN would probably have done the expansion earlier than nine months after the inauguration. Additionally, it cannot be claimed that the EZLN perceived the AMLO administration as having a softer stance towards the movement
2 “Ayer un comunicado del Zapatismo diciendo que van a ampliarse que van a crear más municipios autónomos.
Bienvenidos, Adelante! Porque eso significa trabajar en beneficio de las comunidades y de los pueblos. Lo único que no queremos es la violencia”
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than the previous government; the movement has always expressed scepticism towards the incumbent government. However, the EZLN´s shared history with AMLO could have led the EZLN to make the assessment that AMLO would not respond to any confrontational decision with increased violence. An assessment that appears to be right since AMLO welcomed the decision in his press conference. What the election of AMLO meant for the EZLN were new circumstances to act. Circumstances that may have facilitated the decision by the group to expand.
As discussed in the theoretical section, this is one of the aspects that inevitably interact with other political opportunities. The examined material does not strengthen the view that the decision by EZLN was made because the movement utilized an unstable political situation in their political alignment. Although interestingly, the decision was made nine months after the AMLO inauguration, it cannot be seen as a direct consequence of any electoral instability.
However, the relationship between AMLO and EZLN has long been polarized, and it may be that AMLO´s friendly approach to the movement has made the EZLN calculate that the new president would not respond to an expansion with increased violence. A calculation that seems to be correct.
6.3 Influential allies or supporters
One possible explanation for the decision by EZLN could have been the presence of
important allies that could provide the movement with resources or political access. Through analysing the material, this section seeks to explore if any change has occurred regarding EZLN´s allies or supporters during the analysed period. Did the presence of influential allies or supporters affect the decision to expand?
Social movements that enjoy a high degree of support often have the possibility to gather the resources needed to pursue their objectives. When EZLN expanded their autonomous zones, they claimed it was partly due to the hard work of women and men inside of their
communities (EZLN, 2019a). The design of this study does not permit any assessment of the contribution of the people inside the communities. This is because the EZLN very seldomly comments on the situation inside of their autonomous zones in their communiqués. However, the release of communiqués is their way of communication with the outside world and their supporters. Thus, these texts will be analysed to examine what role allies of EZLN played on their decision to expand.
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Firstly, it has to be mentioned that the EZLN is a movement that emerged out of injustices, who claims to be struggling for the marginalized, indigenous, people of Mexico. Their communiqués manifest a high level of integrity; they make it clear for the reader that this is their struggle that they themselves must lead. However, they do repeatedly reach out to what they refer to as their network of support, and historically the group has been successful in creating a `global identity´ of struggle to which other movements can adhere to (Gulewitsch, 2011).
During the analysed period, the group has invited their network of support to gatherings of their indigenous governing council (EZLN, 2018a), a cultural event (EZLN, 2018b), round- table discussions (EZLN, 2018c) and an anniversary (EZLN, 2019c). In total, they
summoned their supporters four times during the analysed period. By analysing their communiqués, this study has not been able to discover which actors this network of support consists of. This is not unsurprising since the state might have an interest in organisations and persons that support a group that is in rebellion against state authority. Hence, the supporters of the EZLN is not revealed by the movement itself. When the EZLN invites their
sympathizers to an event, it seems to be the case that anyone can register themselves as an observer of the meeting through an e-mail address. Only in the invitation to the round-table discussions did EZLN publish names of the people that had confirmed their participation in the meeting. The list includes a wide array of persons; journalists, sociologist, philosophers, artists and lawyers. However, this study cannot asses how much these persons affect the chosen strategy of the movement.
In October 2018, when the EZLN issued the Declaration from The Second National Assembly of The National Indigenous Congress and The Indigenous Governing Council (EZLN,
2018d), a meeting their support networks attended, the organisation stated that they seek to collaborate with outside actors to achieve the overarching goal of autonomy:
“[…] we agree to continue to build the kind of organization that becomes self- government, autonomous and in rebellion. We will do this with compañeras and compañeros from other geographies in order to collectively break through the inertia imposed upon us and understand together where the storm comes from”
(ibid).
In this quote, EZLN makes clear that they seek to collaborate with outsiders to reach their goals. It does not describe, however, how this collaboration will look like in practice.
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Even though the events that the EZLN organise seems to be open for anyone to attend and the movement seeks some kind of exchange with actors from outside their communities, the EZLN still repeatedly makes clear where they come from and whom they are representing:
“As is our way, each step we take will depend on what we decide below”
(EZLN, 2018d).
“We think that we should continue to walk closely with the originary people”
(EZLN, 2018e).
Consequently, a high level of integrity is interpreted from the EZLN communiqués. No outsider can formulate the answer to the struggle of the Zapatistas. The following quote manifests that the answers to the problems surrounding members of Zapatista communities come from within the movement, not from the outside.
“maybe some of you as support networks still think that what you´re doing is supporting the originary peoples. As time goes by you´re going to see that it´s just the opposite: they will support you through their experience and their forms of organization. That is, you will learn, because if anyone is an expert in
surviving a storm it´s the originary peoples. They´ve had everything thrown at them and here they still are - here we still are” (ibid).
In conclusion, this text analysis finds evidence that the EZLN is connected to outside supporters and allies that might influence the chosen strategy that the movement adapts.
However, this study has not been able to discover which actors the network of support
consists of. Additionally, it is difficult to address on which level these outsiders can affect the decision-making process in Zapatista communities. In this matter, more research is needed.
Although outside actors may be given a certain space, the EZLN is a group grounded in the identity of indigenous people. They highly value their internal decision-making processes and their shared background of struggle. The fact that EZLN consequently tries to appeal to outsiders for support indicates that they have assessed that the movement benefits from it. The purpose could be to accumulate public support or to receive essential resources that enable them to take their next step in the struggle against the state.
6.4 Changes in repression or facilitation
If encountered with any form of repressive social control, movements can feel threatened and revise their choice of tactic to better answer the constraints put on them. After a systematic
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reading of EZLN communiqués and the government´s national development plan of Mexico, perspectives from both sides regarding possible changes in repression or facilitation will be presented here. The focus will be on the controversial project Tren Maya even though other events could be categorized as repressive towards the EZLN, of interest here is to identify EZLN´s opinions regarding the project. Additionally, it is of interest to map out how the movement positions themselves to the marginalized groups, that are negatively affected by the project. Could it be that changes in the repression or facilitation induced the decision to expand?
The Tren Maya is one of the most important projects for the AMLO administration; it is also the project that has the most impact on the Zapatista movement. Accordingly, it is this project that will be in focus in this section. The Tren Maya train refers to the railroad project in the states of Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo, in the southern parts of Mexico. The railroad will go through areas where the EZLN has a relatively high level of support. According to the government, the railroad will; stimulate economic progress in the region through increased tourism; create jobs; contribute to sustainable development; protect the environment in the area and further propitiate land management in the area (Presidencia de la Republica, 2019).
EZLN has been consequently in opposition against the development plans of AMLO. Already in October 2018, before his inauguration, the EZLN made comments about what was to come:
“[…] capitalist train project that will displace and destroy everything on its path” (EZLN, 2018d).
The criticism against the project has been recurrent in their communiqués during the time period analysed. In the communiqué in which they declared their expansion of autonomous communities in August 2019, the criticism against the project was still present.
“[…] the neoliberal megaprojects that will disappear entire peoples, destroy nature, and convert the blood of our originary peoples into profits for powerful capitalists” (EZLN, 2019a).
According to the EZLN, the consequences will be catastrophic for the indigenous people of which they claim to represent. They also commented on the broader vision of the AMLO administration, a vision that does not include the future of the indigenous people, according to the movement.
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“In that vision, indigenous peoples are simply museum artifacts or colourful artisanal items through which the powerful attempt to adorn the greyness of their own hearts” (EZLN, 2019a).
In the same communiqué, they also listed the government project as one of the reasons the decision to expand was possible.
“[…] government policies that destroy communities and nature, particularly those policies of the current administrations which refers to itself as the “Fourth transformation”” (ibid).
These quotes represent a clear scepticism against the project that is perceived by the EZLN as a threat to their whole existence. In January 2019, on the 25th anniversary of their rebellion, one of their leaders, Subcomandante Insurgente Moisés, made the following quote regarding the repressive policies of the government:
“Nobody is going to come fight for us, the exploited peoples of the countryside and the city, nobody. No man, no woman, no group is going to come fight for us.
What we need are women and men who organize themselves, organize
themselves more and still more, a whole people who organizes itself to liberate itself. Or you think that the pope is going to come do it?” (EZLN, 2019b).
This quote is interpreted here as a call for the adaption of a more confrontational strategy to counter government policies. No one cares about the exploited peoples of the countryside;
thus, they themselves must liberate themselves from the oppression.
Besides the Tren Maya project, another form of criticism has been the disappearance and murdering of individuals connected to the Zapatistas. Specifically, the case of Samir Flores Soberanes has increased the group´s scepticism towards the government. The EZLN accuses the government of the murdering of an activist that protested against the government’s plan to build a thermoelectric plant in Morelos. (EZLN, 2019d). AMLO responded that it was
immoral to accuse the government of such actions (López Obrador, 2019). This event could have further fuelled the divergence between the actors.
Findings in this analysis suggest that changes in repression or facilitation have contributed to the decision by the EZLN to expand their autonomous zones. Consequently, the movement makes references to the bad policies of the government in their communication. According to the EZLN, the bad policies of the government represents one out of two reasons why the
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expansion was possible. The projects that constitute the Fourth Transformation, which the Tren Maya is a part of, go against the interest of indigenous communities. These projects have made it possible for the EZLN to frame the AMLO administration as a bad government.
AMLO´s eagerness to develop the rural parts of Mexico in his way stands in stark conflict with the will of the EZLN. According to these findings, the governments plan to build Tren Maya through some of the areas where the EZLN enjoys a high level of support, could constitute an important reason for the decision to expand in August 2019.
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7. CONCLUSION
Drawing on existing research on political opportunity structure this study has tried to find explanations behind the unexpected decision by the EZLN to intensify their autonomy project.
With a single case study that has allowed for an in-depth investigation of the four established political opportunities, this study sought to deepen the understanding of EZLN in modern time. To further strengthen to findings of this study, two alternative theories are discussed.
This study has found that the decision by the EZLN to create 11 more autonomous zones in Chiapas can be explained through the political opportunity structure framework. Although some of the aspects are interconnected, some of the aspects serve better to explain the
behaviour of EZLN. The aspect with the most significant impact on the decision is the fourth aspect, changes in repression or facilitation. The construction of the Tren Maya and AMLO´s visions of a fourth transformation of Mexico has represented a threat to the movement. In the analysed communiqués of EZLN, the movement repeatedly refers to the project; a project they consider as destructive and calls for the organisation against it. The confrontational decision to expand their autonomous zones for the first time since 2003 could be viewed in the light of this project. EZLN organize themselves against a government that seems to be unwilling to start a conversation about the future of the region with its inhabitants.
Other aspects of the political opportunity structure could have affected the decision as well.
Most notably, the openness or closure to new actors and the failure by EZLN to nominate a candidate in the presidential election of 2018. A failure that meant that an old tactic for the movement had to be reinvented, the tactic to go beyond the political system and intensify the autonomy project. Since the electoral path proved relatively closed, the movement had to seek other ways to pursue their goals. The second aspect, stability or instability of political
alignments, also had an impact on the decision. The election of AMLO meant a new opponent to the EZLN, an opponent that seemed to be reluctant to use violence against the movement.
Even though they disagreed on several issues, AMLO still had some inherent respect of the group. The statement he made after the expansion demonstrates that EZLN was right if they predicted that he was not going to answer a confrontational decision with increased violence.
However, finding from this study cannot strengthen that the group made such a prediction.
This study finds no evidence for the possibility that changes in influential allies or supporters could have led to the decision to expand. Since the EZLN is not entirely transparent about which actors that constitute their allies, it is difficult to asses their allies with the material at
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hand. Possibly, support would have been found in this aspect if different methodological choices had been made.
An alternative theory that could explain the decision is resource mobilization theory, a theory that frequently has been applied to understand social movements. Could it be that this theory manages to explain the decision by the EZLN more accurately? To understand the strategy of the movement, one could investigate what kind of resources the EZLN had at its disposal in August 2019 and whether an increase in resources preceding the decision had occurred. When EZLN announced their decision, they declared that the expansion was, in part, due to the hard work of the people inside their communities. This may serve as an indication that internal resources had been enhanced preceding the decision. However, this study does not find any additional evidence that serves to strengthen the explanation through the resource
mobilization theory. Another alternative explanation for the adoption of a confrontational strategy could be a change in leadership. Even though Subcomandante Marcos is generally considered as the leader of EZLN, the group has a decentralized leadership where every major decision is decided by the general command, the CCRI; a group that is accountable to their respective community assemblies. Henceforth, the change of leadership possesses a low explanation factor to the decision by the EZLN. This study has not found any significant indications that the expansion by EZLN was due to a change in resources or a change in leadership. Instead, it seems to be the movement´s relationship with the government that constitute the main reason for the group to further deepening their autonomy project.
In conclusion, this study finds that the decision to adopt a more confrontational strategy could be explained by their infected alignment with AMLO, the closed political path the group experienced in 2018 and, most importantly, the threat that the Tren Maya constitutes to the movements and its sympathizers.
The mistake by AMLO to not consult important domestic actors in this fourth transformation project could cost him severely. In 1994, the EZLN uprising shed light upon problems in a country where the government did its uttermost to sweep its problems under the rug and instead depict themselves as a modern, developed country, ready to compete on the global market. If AMLO´s ambivalent strategy on how to handle the contemporary issues in the south of Mexico were to continue, one could expect that the EZLN will utilize the opportunities given to them and further intensify their quest for autonomy in the 2020s.
