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Simon Grenholm, Mats Lindgren

Local Renewable Energy Sources for

Rural Electrification in Tanzania

MASTER'S THESIS

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for

Rural Electrification in Tanzania

Simon Grenholm, Mats Lindgren

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Tanzania. A use of local, renewable energy sources instead of diesel for power production is desirable from an environmental point of view. For this reason, the Swedish International Development Authority, Sida, is hesitating to assist electrification projects where diesel generators are used. This Master’s thesis shows that a limited use of diesel generators is sometimes preferable, as the technologies for power production utilising renewable energy sources, cannot yet be considered as a cost effective way of reaching social and environmental aims.

Keywords

Tanzania; Energy; Electrification; Rural; Power; Renewable energy;

Environment.

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Local Renewable Energy Sources for

Rural Electrification in Tanzania

Simon Grenholm, Mats Lindgren

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Acknowledgements

This report is the result of a Master’s thesis work performed at Luleå University of Technology (LTU), Department of Mechanical Engineering at the Division of Energy Engineering. The Master’s thesis is the last step in achieving a Master of Science in Environmental Planning and Design at the Department of Environmental Engineering, Luleå University of Technology in Luleå, Sweden. The work was performed in co-operation with Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO).

We would like to thank our supervisor at LTU, Professor Björn Kjellström, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Division of Energy Engineering, for all his help with bringing this Master’s thesis together and for initiating the project. Thanks also to our examiner at LTU, Lecturer Glenn Lundborg, Department of Environmental Engineering, Division of Traffic Engineering, for his assistance.

We would like to give many thanks to our supervisor at TANESCO, Mr. Maneno J. J. Katyega, Chief Technical Engineer, with personnel at the department of Research and Development, who supported us in the best conceivable manner during our stay in Tanzania. Special thanks to Miss Florence R. D.

Gwan´gombe and Mr. Michael Fidelis for all their help and for being pleasant company during our field study.

Further, we would like to thank the people we met during our field surveys in Tabora, Urambo, Kasulu, and Kigoma. Mentioning all of you is not possible, but your help and assistance have been invaluable. Special thanks to Mr. Ferdinand Mpanduji, Mr. Daniel M. Makongo, Mr. Pius Nkobi, Mr.

Kalidushi Johnsson, Mr. W. A. Chambala, Mr. Bernard Mkonya, Mr. Cosmas Nkayamba, and Mr.

Jean Mutamba.

Our project was enabled by funding from SIDA (Swedish International Development Authority) via an MSF-scholarship (Minor Field Study) and we specially want to thank Mrs. Sigrun Santesson for her interest and kind assistance.

Finally, we would like to thank our parents, brothers, and sister for support, inspiration, and never failing encouragement.

Luleå, May 2000

Simon Grenholm Mats Lindgren

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This study has been carried out within the framework of the Minor Field Studies (MFS) Scholarship Programme, which is funded by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida.

The MFS Scholarship Programme offers Swedish university students an opportunity to carry out two months’ field work in a Third World country resulting in a Master’s dissertation or a similar in-depth study.

These studies are primarily conducted within areas that are important for development and in a country supported by the Swedish pro- gramme for international development assistance.

The main purpose of the MFS programme is to increase interest in developing countries and to enhance Swedish university students’

knowledge and understanding of these countries and their problems.

An MFS should provide the student with initial experience of conditions in such a country. A further purpose is to widen the Swedish personnel resources for recruitment into international cooperation.

The Centre for International Environmental Studies, CIES, at the Royal Institute of Technology, KTH, Stockholm, administers the MFS programme for all faculties of engineering and natural sciences in Sweden.

Sigrun Santesson

Programme Officer

MFS Programme

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Summary

Major parts of the population in rural Tanzania do not have access to electrical power. The electricity is eagerly awaited, but at the same time, the national electric utility in Tanzania, TANESCO, has limited resources to electrify new areas. A model is being attempted to electrify medium-sized towns, where independent, locally formed, co-operatives are building and running electric systems in isolated grids. For rural electrification, diesel generators are commonly used due to their relatively low investment cost and well-known techniques. However, the usage of fossil fuels is the main cause of the rapid increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is expected to cause climate changes. For this reason, the Swedish International Development Authority, Sida, has adopted an energy policy that state that Sida, as much as possible, shall avoid supporting projects where fossil fuels are utilised.

In this Master’s thesis, the possibilities to use commercially available supply options, which utilise local renewable energy sources for electrification, are examined. This is done through a pre–feasibility study and an environmental impact assessment of the first ten years of electrical operation in the town of Kasulu, via the co-operative KAECCOS. Considered are economical, environmental, technical, and social advantages and disadvantages of the five supply options: biomass gasification, mini-hydropower, solar-PV, wind power, and diesel generators. The potential socio-economical consequences of electrification were evaluated through interviews in Kasulu and Urambo, of which Urambo already has a local grid supplied by the electrification co-operative, UECCO. Data from UECCO were used to estimate the willingness to pay for electricity at different energy charges and availability.

The positive social effects of a rural electrification project will be limited in the beginning because only a small fraction of the inhabitants will be able to afford the high energy-charge needed to recover the full costs. Significant positive effects, especially for the poorer sector of the population, cannot be expected unless the necessary energy-charge is reduced. Yet, during the initial years of electrification, healthcare and education would be improved, the environment for economical activities would be enriched, and the sense of security in electrified areas of Kasulu would be notably increased.

The willingness to pay is expected to be high enough to cover the costs of diesel-gensets and biomass gasification. However, the technical knowledge of biomass-gasification for engine sizes of interest for Kasulu is limited, and the after sales service capacity of the few active vendors is questionable.

Consequently, diesel generators are a realistic option for electrification, while biomass-gasification is presently only suitable for pilot projects and will require substantial technical support from foreign experts.

For mini-hydropower, wind power, and solar-PV, grants for investment-support are needed for these options to become feasible. Hydropower is technically the best alternative to diesel generators for Kasulu, and at other places where suitable rivers are available. Wind power is probably unsuitable for Kasulu since the wind conditions seem to be inadequate. However, wind-power can be a profitable complement at sites with suitable wind conditions. Solar-PV is the least suitable option for electrification of Kasulu, the realistic power output from this supply source does not fulfil the consumers’ requirements and secondly, because there are no systems for recycling the lead from batteries, which makes this option doubtful from an environmental point of view. Nevertheless, the technology is developing rapidly, and the feasibility might be much better within a couple of years.

The choice of options requiring high-investments, such as mini-hydropower, wind power, and solar-PV systems, might lead to a higher economical risk than choosing the diesel-genset option, due to a higher sensitivity to inaccuracy in the load forecast. These options might also limit the economical benefits of a future connection to a regional or national grid as well as the prospects of later changing the technique of power-generation, as the invested capital has to be recouped. Extensive introduction of solar-PV systems would economically limit the prospects of a local grid, as a major part of the initial energy-demand would be eliminated by the solar-PV systems.

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Sammanfattning

Större delen av befolkningen på landsbygden i Tanzania har inte tillgång till elektricitet. Den är hett eftertraktad, men samtidigt har Tanzanias statliga elbolag, TANESCO, begränsade resurser för elektrifiering av nya områden. För att elektrifiera medelstora samhällen prövas därför en modell där oberoende, lokalt bildade kooperativ, bygger upp och ansvarar för elsystem i isolerade nät. Tack vare relativt låga investeringskostnader och en välkänd teknik, används ofta dieselgeneratorer vid landsbygdselektrifiering. Samtidigt är användandet av fossila bränslen huvudorsak till den snabba ökningen av koldioxid i atmosfären, vilken förväntas orsaka klimatförändringar. Den svenska statliga biståndsorganisationen, Sida, har därför antagit en energipolicy som säger att Sida, i största möjliga utsträckning, ska undvika att stödja projekt där fossila bränslen används.

I detta examensarbete undersöks möjligheterna att vid landsbygdselektrifiering använda kommersiellt tillgängliga produktionsmetoder, som utnyttjar lokala förnyelsebara energikällor. Detta görs via en förstudie och en miljökonsekvensbeskrivning av de tio första driftåren för elektrifiering av Kasulu, via kooperativet KAECCOS. Till beaktande tas ekonomiska, miljömässiga, tekniska och sociala för- och nackdelar av de fem försörjningsalternativen: bioförgasning, minivattenkraft, solceller, vindkraft och dieselgeneratorer. Till grund för bedömningen av de socioekonomiska konsekvenserna ligger intervjuer utförda i samhällena Kasulu och Urambo, av vilka Urambo redan har ett lokalt elnät där elektrifieringskooperativet UECCO står för elförsörjningen. Data från UECCO har använts för att bedöma betalningsviljan för elektricitet vid olika energipriser och tillgänglighet.

De positiva sociala effekterna av landsbygdselektrifiering kommer till en början att vara begränsade eftersom enbart en liten andel av befolkningen kommer att ha råd att betala de höga energipriser som kommer att krävas för att täcka kostnaderna. Betydande positiva effekter, speciellt för de allra fattigaste, är inte att vänta, såvida inte tariffen kan sänkas. Likväl kommer hälsovård, utbildning och känslan av säkerhet i elektrifierade områden av Kasulu, liksom förutsättningarna för ekonomiska aktiviteter, att påtagligt förbättras redan under de första elektrifieringsåren.

Betalningsviljan tros vara tillräckligt hög för att täcka kostnaderna med alternativen dieselgeneratorer och bioförgasning. Dock är de tekniska erfarenheterna av bioförgasning begränsad vad det gäller motorer av de storlekar som är av intresse för Kasulu, och möjligheterna att erhålla service från de få aktiva försäljarna kan ifrågasättas. Som följd av detta är dieselgeneratorer ett realistiskt försörjningsalternativ i samband med elektrifiering, medan bioförgasning i dagsläget endast är av intresse för pilotprojekt och kommer att kräva betydande teknisk hjälp från utländska experter.

För att få ekonomi i projekt innefattande minivattenkraft, vindkraft eller solceller, krävs bistånd i form av investeringsstöd. Vattenkraft är tekniskt sett det bästa alternativet till dieselgeneratorer i Kasulu och på andra ställen där lämpliga vattendrag finns tillgängliga. Vindkraft är antagligen olämpligt för Kasulu eftersom vindresurserna tycks vara otillräckliga. Vindkraft kan dock vara ett lönsamt och lämpligt komplement på platser med bättre vindförhållanden. Solceller är det minst lämpliga alternativet för att elektrifiera Kasulu på grund av att det realistiska effektuttaget från denna försörjningskälla inte uppfyller konsumenternas krav, och att det saknas system för att återvinna bly från batterier, något som gör alternativet tveksamt ur miljösynpunkt. Men tekniken utvecklas i snabb takt, och om några år kan förutsättningarna vara betydligt bättre.

Att välja alternativ som kräver stora investeringar, såsom minivattenkraft, vindkraft eller solceller, kan på grund av en större känslighet för felbedömningar i förbrukningsprognoser, innebära ett större ekonomiskt risktagande än val av dieselgeneratorer. Dessa alternativ kan också begränsa lönsamheten av framtida anslutningar till ett regionalt eller nationellt nät, liksom förutsättningarna att i framtiden byta produktionsmetod, eftersom det investerade kapitalet måste återfås. Ett utbrett användande av solcellssystem skulle medföra sämre ekonomiska förutsättningar för ett lokalt elnät, eftersom en stor del av det initiala elbehovet skulle försörjas via de individuella systemen.

Att använda dieselgeneratorer för att elektrifiera Kasulu, skulle inte medföra någon betydande ökning av koldioxidutsläpp eller annan miljöpåverkan. På grund av den förväntat höga energitariffen, kommer den dieselproducerade elektriciteten i huvudsak att ersätta fossila bränslen som i dagsläget används till belysning och elgenerering. Att byta ut dieselgeneratorer mot minivattenkraft, solceller eller vindkraft, förefaller inte vara ett kostnadseffektivt sätt att reducera utsläpp av koldioxid, jämfört med till exempel de

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Abbreviations

Organisations etc.

DANIDA Danish International Development Assistance

FSU Field Studies Unit at TANESCO IEC International Electrotechnical

Commission

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KaDP Kasulu District Development Programme

KAECCOS Kasulu Electric Consumers Co- operative Society

KTH Swedish Royal Institute of Technology

LTU Luleå University of Technology

MFS Minor Field Study

NGO Non Governmental Organisation

PCF Prototype Carbon Fund

SEI Stockholm Environment Institute Sida Swedish International Development

Authority

TANESCO Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited

TWICO Tanzania Wood Industry Corporation

TTC Teachers Training College UECCO Urambo Electric Consumers

Co-operative Limited

Economical

GB£ British Pound

GNP Gross National Product

NPV Net Present Value

NPV-costs Net present value of cost O & M Operation and Maintenance

TSh Tanzanian Shilling

(1 TSh = 100 cents)

US$ US dollar

VAT Value Added Tax

Technical

AC Alternating Current

AAC All Aluminium Conductor

ACSR Aluminium Core Steel Reinforced CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamps CVT Continous Variable Transmission

DC Direct Current

Units/Prefix

A ampere

G giga (109)

Gt gigaton (1 Gt = 1012 kg)

GWh gigawatt-hour (1 GWh = 106 kWh)

h hour

kV kilovolt

kVA kilovolt ampere (one kVA equals approximately 0.8 kWh)

k kilo (103)

kW kilowatt

kWh kilowatt-hour (1 kWh = 3.6 MJ (megajoule))

kWhe kilowatt-hour-electricity (to clarify that the energy is electric energy)

m metre

M mega (106)

MW megawatt (1 MW = 1 000 kW)

ppm parts per million

ton metric tone (1 ton = 1 000 kg)

V volt

W watt

Environmental/Chemical

anthropogenic not natural

CH4 methane

CO carbon monoxide

CO2 carbon dioxide

HC hydrocarbons (non-combusted) N2O dinitrogen monoxide

NOx nitrogen oxides

O3 ozone

PM particulate matter

SOx sulphur oxides

VOC Volatile Organic Compounds

Definitions

availability scheduled time with power supply flat rate fixed charge according to tariff

group, but no charging per consumed kWhe

quality quality of electricity regarding voltage fluctuations and relative harmonic distortions

reliability satisfactory supply during time with scheduled supply

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Contents

A

cknowledgements

P

reface

S

ummary

S

ammanfattning

A

bbreviations

C

ontents

C

hapter

1 I

ntroduction

1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Objectives 2

1.3 Outlines 3

1.4 Methods 3

C

hapter

2 P

olicies and

G

uidelines

6

2.1 Swedish Development Assistance 6

2.2 Policyfor Sida’s Assistance to a Sustainable Energy-sector 7 2.3 Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) 7

C

hapter

3 E

lectrification of

T

anzania

9

3.1 The Need of the People 9

3.2 The Energy Situation in Tanzania 10

3.3 Desired Outcome of Electrification 12

3.4 Rural Electrification Co-operatives Today 13

3.5 Experiences from UECCO 14

C

hapter

4 E

nvironmental

I

ssues

16

4.1 Global Warming 16

4.2 Present Environmental Problems of Power Generation in Tanzania 19

4.3 Awareness of Environmental Problems 22

C

hapter

5 P

resentation of

K

asulu and

K

AECCOS

23

5.1 Kasulu 23

5.2 Energy Situation in Kasulu 24

5.3 The Need of Electricity 25

5.4 KAECCOS 26

5.5 Current Plans for the Electrification of Kasulu 26

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C

hapter

6 P

ower

D

emand

F

orecast for

K

asulu

27

6.1 Forecast by KTH 27

6.2 Forecast by TANESCO 28

6.3 Earlier Electrified Towns 29

6.4 Forecast to Use in this Study 31

C

hapter

7 D

istribution

N

etwork for

K

asulu

44

7.1 High-voltage Distribution Lines 45

7.2 Step-down Transformers 45

7.3 Low-voltage Distribution Lines 46

7.4 Summarizing Distribution Costs 47

C

hapter

8 S

upply

O

ptions for

K

asulu

48

8.1 Diesel Internal Combustion 48

8.2 Mini-hydropower, Mwoga River 51

8.3 Biomass Gasification for Internal Combustion 55

8.4 Solar-PV 58

8.5 Wind Power 61

C

hapter

9 E

valuation of

S

upply

O

ptions for

K

asulu

65

9.1 System Requirements 65

9.2 Design of Supply for Kasulu 67

9.3 Technical and Practical Evaluation of Supply Options 69

9.4 Economical Evaluation of Supply Options 71

9.5 Socio-economical Evaluation of Supply and System Options 80

9.6 Environmental Impacts of Supply Options 82

C

hapter

10 D

iscussions

89

10.1 Electrification of Kasulu 89

10.2 Comparison of the Two Most Suitable Supply Options 91 10.3 Assistance to Renewable Energy Technologies for Rural Electrification in Tanzania 92

10.4 Other Issues 94

C

hapter

11 C

onclusions

95

11.1 Conclusions 95

11.2 Future Studies 97

R

eferences

99

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A

ppendixes

Appendix A Load Scenarios in Earlier Electrified Rural Areas in Tanzania Appendix B Grain Millers

Appendix C Daily Load Pattern

Appendix D Allocation of Demand to Sub Areas of Kasulu Appendix E Consumption, Energy Charge and Availability

Appendix F Examples of Results From the Demand Forecast Model Appendix G Field Study

Appendix H Exchange Rates and Consumers Price Index Appendix I Electricity for Cooking?

Appendix J Checklist for Environmental Impact Assessments in the Energy sector Appendix K Interviews

Appendix L Diesel Gensets

Appendix M Map Over Kasulu with Neighbourhood Appendix N Probability Calculations

Appendix O Economical Assessment Methods Appendix P Fuel Consumption of Diesel Gensets

Appendix Q Supply and System Options for Kasulu, Economy and Environment Appendix R Environmental evaluation of Air Emissions from Diesel Gensets

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C HAPTER 1 Introduction

1.1 Background

Electricity is a commodity that has revolutionized the life of people in many different ways. Among an uncountable number of applications, one can mention lighting, electric motors, and electronic equipments. In Sweden, the use of electricity infiltrates the everyday life in such a big scale that is indescribable. Today in Tanzania, electricity plays an important role, and for the future development of Tanzania, electrification is considered to be among the most important issues.

Electrification is not mainly a question of economical development in the industrial sector. In rural Tanzania, the access to electric lighting is most eagerly awaited, to bring some new light to the dark African nights. Other electric devices such as equipment for medical treatment, water pumping, and information technologies such as radio and television, are also needed in order to raise the standard of living and to make rural Tanzania participate more in the progress of the modern society.

The national electric utility in Tanzania, TANESCO, has the commission to electrify the country.

Today, all regional towns and many of the district towns are supplied. However, it is estimated that around 85% of the population are still living in areas where there is no public power supply [1.1]. These areas include not only the countryside, but also a number of district towns and most of the villages.

Economical limitations have inhibited TANESCO in their efforts to further expand the national electric grid. To satisfy the needs of electricity, a model has been proposed in which villagers form rural electrification co-operatives. The co-operatives are responsible for the economy (no subsidisation) and organisation, as well as operation and maintenance of the systems, with technical support from TANESCO. Today, two communities, Urambo and Mbinga, have electric systems run by co-operatives. Also in Kasulu an electrification co-operative has been formed, but the operation has not yet started [1.2]. Energy charges in the present co-operative managed systems have so far been much higher than in the national grid, partly because of the subsidisation of the small consumers in the national grid. The isolated co-operative managed systems are meant to function during transitional periods. When sufficient loads have been developed, the aim is to connect the local grids to the national grid.

Hydropower dominates the electricity production in the national grid. Diesel generators are used in the isolated networks [1.3]. In the small co-operative managed systems, diesel generators have so far been the only alternative used for power generating [1.2]. The reasons for starting with diesel generators in those small systems have mainly been the low investment costs and the well-known technique.

However, generating electricity with diesel is not trouble free. Operation and maintenance costs are high and the fuel supply is not always reliable. There are also environmental problems associated with diesel generators like oil spills and emissions of carbon dioxide, which contributes to the global

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of infrastructure also brings an increased consumption of fossil fuels, a conflict occurs. Gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the main causes to the presumed global warming and the energy policy of Sida, i.e. ‘Policy for Sida’s Assistance to a Sustainable Energy-sector’, gives environmental issues priority, especially the problem of global warming [1.5]. Consequently, Sida is not willing to support energy projects in which fossil fuels are involved, except for very special cases. Electricity production with diesel generators seems to be the preferred production option for rural electrification in Tanzania. As diesel is a fossil fuel, the preferred generating method opposes the aims of the energy policy; hence, it may cause difficulties for the electrification co-operatives to get assistance from Sida.

However, a memorandum concerning the policy declares rural electrification as a special case and hereby opens a door for a limited use of diesel generators [1.6].

There are other techniques available such as mini-hydropower, biomass gasification, wind power, and solar-PV, which utilize renewable energy sources that do not contribute to the global warming. Still, these techniques have some other environmental problems and the investment costs are often high.

The question is therefore whether it is appropriate to apply these techniques in rural electrification projects.

One remarkable aspect of global warming is the imbalance of emissions from rich and poor countries.

Poor countries in tropical climates risk getting most affected by weather system changes and natural disasters that will follow a global heating. Ironically, the emissions causing the problems mostly originate from richer countries. The imbalance of emissions can be exemplified by the annual per capita emission of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels (carbon dioxide from deforestation not included). In the United States, as much as 20 000 kg carbon dioxide is emitted, compared to 6 200 kg in Sweden and only about 70 kg in Tanzania [1.7]. However, deforestation in Tanzania causes some additional 700 kg carbon dioxide per person per yeari. From this point of view, it would be inappropriate to demand poor Tanzanians to install the cleanest available technique if it means higher costs for the individual consumer. At the same time, it is of the highest importance not to use technologies that risk putting Tanzania in the same situation as most of the highly industrialised countries, which currently have a dependence on non-renewable energy sources that emit carbon dioxide far beyond sustainable levels.

1.2 Objectives

The objectives of this Master’s thesis are as follows:

• Through a case study of KAECCOS, the electrification co-operative in Kasulu, compare different options for generating electric power to a rural town in Tanzania considering: technology, economy, and environmental and social effects.

• Study if financial assistance to technologies utilising renewable energy sources, for rural electrification in Tanzania, is a cost-effective way to reach environmental aims and to defeat poverty, compared with assistance to electrification with the traditional diesel generator technology.

As basis we will use the energy policy of Sida ‘Policy for Sida’s Assistance to a Sustainable Energy- sector’.

i Derived by using: Net deforestation per year: 518 143 ha [1.8]; Wood supply per area: 40 m3/ha [1.8]; Wood density 725 kg/m3[1.9]; Emission from burning of wood: 1.513 kg CO2/kg [1.10]; Population in Tanzania 1999: 31 270 820 people [1.11].

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1.3 Outlines

The study focuses on the initial stage of electrification of a medium sized town (around 10 000 to 20 000 inhabitants) in Tanzania. It is presumed that the electrification is carried through with a rural electrification co-operative handling the operation and administration. The initial stage is defined as the first ten years after establishing an electric system.

We assume that the electric system will operate isolated during the first ten years. After that, the system may continue as isolated or eventually become connected to the national grid. The electric system does not necessarily have to include an electric grid. (Individual electric supply modules are also considered as an option.)

We will use KAECCOS, a rural electrification co-operative in Kasulu, in northwestern Tanzania, as a case study for most of our technical, economical, and environmental calculations. Therefore, some of the conclusions will be specific for Kasulu whereas others will be of the general nature. KAECCOS, formed in May 1998, has not yet started to operate any electric systems.

The techniques for generating electricity should already be available to the market as ready products.

We have mainly used US dollars as currency. If nothing else is mentioned the values correspond to the rate as of January 1999. (See exchange rates in Appendix H.)

1.4 Methods

First, we will give a briefing of the methods used by presenting some fields of survey together with the methods used. Then, we will describe the procedure and take some more details about the methods.

Fields of Survey and Methods

• Desired outcome of electrification – Interviews and literature studies;

• Applications for electricity – Interviews and literature studies;

• Power demand forecast for Kasulu – Literature studies, field studies and GIS (Geographic Information Systems);

• Requirements on production options – Interviews and literature studies;

• Production options (technology, economy, and environmental effects) – Literature studies and field studies;

• Production options (analyses) – Calculations with annuity, net present value and probability methods;

• Cost-effectiveness of aid – Discussions.

Procedure with Comments on Methods

A scholarship for a Minor Field Study (MFS), which was funded by Sida, enabled us to have the possibility to go to Tanzania and do field studies. The field studies were carried out together with engineers from TANESCO with funding from SEI.

Before our journey to Tanzania, we prepared ourselves for the task with literature studies and different kinds of calculations.

Our stay in Tanzania was from June to August 1999. Most of this time we were stationed in Dar es

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embassy. Further, we contacted two of the suppliers of solar-PV systems in Tanzania, to get cost estimations of solar-PV systems.

We wanted to visit the object of our case study, Kasulu, and to see electric systems that were already operating. Therefore, we made a journey with Kasulu as the main target, during which we also we visited Tabora, Urambo, and Kigoma (see Figure 1.1). Urambo was of special interest because of an electrification co-operative that has operated an electric system there since June 1994, a system that only supplies electricity during the evening. TANESCO is supplying Tabora and Kigoma with electricity; Kigoma has an isolated system powered by diesel generators, Tabora is connected to the national grid, but has diesel generators as stand by units. The journey was carried out between the 7th of June and the 2nd August. Miss Florence R. D. Gwan´gombe (Research Engineer, TANESCO Dar es Salaam) joined us the first half of the trip and Mr. Michael Fidelis (Electrical Technician, TANESCO Tabora) the second half. (Read more about the trip in Appendix G.)

Figure 1.1. Map showing visited communities.

In Urambo and Kasulu about thirty people were interviewed at each place. We had different questions for members and non-members of the co-operatives and interviewed about fifteen members and fifteen non-members in both places. We tried to get a representative selection considering the standard of living and we interviewed both men and women. We used an interpreter in most of the interviews, but the interviews were conducted in English when possible. There is always a risk that questions and answers become distorted when using an interpreter; therefore, we have carefully used the results from some of the questions. (Read more about the interviews in Appendix K.)

Our main task in Urambo was to see what people in the town thought of electricity and the electric co- operative. Important questions were, e.g.: How is the electricity used? Do non-members gain indirectly from the electricity in any way? Are there big limitations to only have electricity during the evening hours? Would people be ready to pay more for electricity that is cleaner for the environment?

We also collected consumption data at different energy charges and availability, to analyse how they are correlated.

Important questions in Kasulu were, e.g.: What expectations do the people have of the electricity? For which applications are they planning to use the power? Would they be satisfied if they could not use the electricity for high load purposes (as with solar-PV systems)? Which kinds of energy sources are used today? How much money do the households spend on energy?

Kasulu Kigoma Urambo Tabora

Dar es Salaam

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In Kasulu, we also interviewed and discussed with the District Commissioner, the District Executive Director, the co-ordinator of the KaDP (Kasulu District Development Programme), and with representatives from the co-operative member-board. Topics during these interviews were, for instance, the history and organisation of KAECCOS, the priorities and plans for electrification of Kasulu Township, and the environmental awareness of the population. We also interviewed the Member of Parliament for Kasulu, conducted on a train between Dar es Salaam and Tabora.

We made a visit to Kabanga, a village near Kasulu, where the construction of a mini-hydro power plant was recently completed, and to Mwoga River, where a mini-hydro plant is proposed to supply Kasulu with power. Further, we met with a pilot to ask him about the wind conditions of Kasulu since no wind data were available. A practical experiment was made to estimate the economical break-even point for using electricity as a substitute for charcoal in cooking.

In Tabora and Kigoma we visited the powerhouses where we could overlook the environmental situation around the plants; of special interest was the oil leakage and oil handling system. In Kigoma we also visited the airport meteorologist to get wind data from the airport.

Back in Dar es Salaam, further discussions with our supervisor at TANESCO were carried out, more useful literature was gathered, and a briefing about some findings we had made during the journey was compiled.

Back in Sweden, additional work to analyse the collected information started. We have carried out many calculations using Microsoft Excel when dealing with technical, economical, and environmental tasks.

For the power demand forecast for Kasulu, we used a GIS program called ArcView. Thanks to this, we could combine geographical information with attributes concerning the expected power demand.

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C HAPTER 2

Policies and Guidelines

In this chapter, we will give an orientation of the document content that we have based this Master’s thesis upon, the ‘Policy for Sida’s Assistance to a Sustainable Energy-sector’. First, we will give a short orientation into the objectives for Swedish development assistance. Then, we will refer to parts of the Policy for Sida’s Assistance to a Sustainable Energy-sector and finally, refer Sida's Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA).

2.1 Swedish Development Assistance

The Swedish parliament has stated that the leading objective for Swedish cooperation in development is to defeat poverty. The leading objective shall be accomplished through the following six objectives_[2.1]:

1. Growth of resources

2. Economical and social equalisation 3. Economical and political independence 4. Democratic development of the society 5. Environmental concern

6. Equality between the sexes

Sida has described how they intend to realise these objectives in five plans of action, namely [2.1]: 1. Defeat of poverty

2. Sustainable development 3. Peace

4. Democracy and human rights 5. Equality

These are described in five documents. Below, we refer to the passages of the documents describing the first and second plan of action, which we find relevant for the subject of this Master’s thesis.

Sida’s program for ‘Defeat of Poverty’ states that investments in local infrastructure lead to direct and quantifiable improvement in the standard of living of the poor. The standard of living can be raised through increased access to: clean water; proper management of wastewater; power-supply, and good housing. Furthermore, this program states that a fundamental infrastructure is essential to overcome poverty in a long term. [2.2]

The program for ‘Sustainable Development’ points out the importance to follow the international agreements in the field of environment and development. This program also highlights the future supply of energy as one of the major challenges for humanity. Environmental aspects, e.g. global warming, acidification of soil and water, and direct health effects, are addressed in the document. This demands development of sustainable energy-generation and consumption. [2.3]

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2.2 Policy for Sida’s Assistance to a Sustainable Energy-sector

The ‘Policy for Sida’s Assistance to a Sustainable Energy-sector’ [2.4] gives the direction for Sida’s assistance in the energy sector. It is based upon the different objectives for Swedish assistance, the regional, national, and international environmental ambitions, and other regulations. The assistance shall not offend the commitments signed by Sweden, for example: UNCED (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development); Rio Declaration; Agenda 21; the Climate Convention;

the Convention on Biological Diversity; and the Rio Forest principles.

The Policy puts the focus on the climate issue, which can be illustrated by the following quotations.

“Even when examining the environmental problems associated with the energy sector on the whole, it is largely correct to use the climate question as a starting point.”

“The climate change issue is prioritised by Swedish environmental agencies.”

“Local and renewable sources of energy are prioritised to imported fuels.”

The policy however gives some room for assistance to facilities with fossil fuels through the following wording:

“Investment support for continued or increased use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil can be given in exceptional cases. Such support may not cause reductions in the prospects of converting to sustainable systems. The exceptions can include transitional solutions such as replacing coal/oil with natural gas in existing facilities. Exceptions can also be experimental and demonstration facilities for alternative technologies. In addition, efforts to rehabilitate fossil-fuel based power plants can be included if they aim to, or in effect, reduce pressures on the environment to acceptable levels, for example levels equivalent to those existing in Sweden.“

A clarification of the application of the above quoted wording, regarding assistance to fossil fuelled appliances was given in a memorandum 1999-05-25 [2.5]. The memorandum entails assistance to render higher efficiency and gas cleaning at existing plants, and the utilisation of diesel generators for, among others, local grids in rural areas.

“Support of diesel generators for local grids in rural areas can be accepted even though it violates the main outlines of the policy.“

Other environmental issues are however not neglected. Sida demands that an environmental impact assessment (EIA), which weights the pros and cons of the project, have to be conducted. Sida have drawn up guidelines for EIA in development co-operation, which we summarise in the following section.

The responsibility for the feasibility study and the EIA is upon the owner of the project, with Sida having a supportive and examining role. For projects that Sida are engaged in, they will however cover the cost of the initial feasibility studies and the EIA.

2.3 Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA)

The ‘Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessments’ [2.6] give directions of how the EIA shall be performed and how the executing officer shall evaluate an EIA.

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The EIA can be carried out to different extents, depending on the expected environmental impact. For projects where minor environmental impacts are expected, a limited EIA can be accepted. Answering the following questions can fulfil the requirements for a limited EIA:

• Which are the suggested projects probable positive and negative environmental impacts?

• Is the project a good alternative to achieve the stated goals? Are there other means to attain the aims?

• Is it likely that the project will, in a positive way, contribute to an environmentally sustainable development, in an optimised way?

• If there are uncertainties concerning the environmental impacts and their proportions, does the suggested project follow the principle of cautiousness?

The checklist for a complete EIA in the energy sector is divided in four parts, namely:

• Soil, water, and air

• Biodiversity

• Man

• Chemical Substances

In Appendix J you find our translation of the checklist for a complete EIA in the energy sector.

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C HAPTER 3

Electrification of Tanzania

This chapter will mainly deal with electricity and electrification projects in Tanzania. It will focus on the needs of the people in order to compare electricity with other issues. Then some important figures for the energy situation in Tanzania will be presented, and the objectives of electrification projects and the present model of electrifying with rural electrification co-operatives will be discussed. Finally, some of the experiences we had when we visited the electrification co-operative in Urambo will be presented. First, we would like to give a short briefing about the country:

Tanzania is a country in East Africa situated immediately south of the equator (see Figure 3.1). It has 31 million inhabitants and an area of 935 037 km2 (twice the area of Sweden). Tanzania has a widely varying geography. The main part of the country, the middle part, is a highland plateau, but there are lowlands along the coast as well as some very high mountains (e.g. Mount Kilimanjaro, 5 895 metres, the highest mountain in Africa). On the borders, the Great Rift Valley has formed three lakes; Lake Victoria–the world's second largest freshwater lake, Lake Tanganyika–the world's second deepest lake, and Lake Malawi.

In the coastal strip along the Indian Ocean, the climate is hot and humid; in the highlands it is dryer and colder.

The environment covers everything from savannah to tropical rainforests. The country is famous for its wildlife, especially for the enormous numbers of mammals in the national parks and game reserves.

The dominating occupation is farming and major food crops are corn, rice, potatoes, bananas, and cassava.

Export cash crops of big importance are coffee, cotton, tea, cashew nuts, and tobacco. The majority of the people are poor and the GNP per capita is among the lowest in the world. Tanzania is a young democracy with multiple political parties and with president Benjamin William Mkapa as the present head of state. There are about 120 identifiable ethnic groups, of which none is large enough to be dominant. Swahili is the national language. Dominating religions are Christianity, Islam, and animist beliefs. [3.1] [3.2] [3.3]

3.1 The Need of the People

Figure 3.1 Tanzania

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poorest countries in the world with an average income of US$ 170 (compared to US$ 25 710 in Sweden)[3.4]. However, this statistic does not tell the whole truth. Farming is the most common occupation in Tanzania, and most of the households are growing their own food, building their own houses, and doing other things that never show up in the GNP-statistics.

Under normal conditions, the average Tanzanian has access to necessities like food, water, firewood, clothes, and a place to sleep. Even if traditional farming brings the necessities, it is still difficult to earn money from it. Getting the basics can be time consuming and many women often use a large part of the day to collect water and firewood. Nevertheless, big problems do not appear until something abnormal happens. For instance, a considerable fraction of the population cannot afford to visit a doctor if they get sick. Diseases like malaria and AIDS are striking hard at the people. Another thing that has caused big problems in some areas during the last few years is abnormal weather. In 1997, heavy rain (due to a the weather phenomena El Niño) destroyed many roads and caused soil erosion.

According to The East African [3.5], the flooding and the diseases that followed caused the death of 15 000 East Africans. During the last few years, except for the El Niño, the weather has been drier than normal in many places of Tanzania and, for instance, in Urambo the people feared crop failure and famine if the dryness would keep on. Crop failure is in most cases a local problem, not a national one, but its consequences often become serious due to poor storage keeping and insufficient transport possibilities.

The question now is how important electricity is compared to these other issues. The majority of the population cannot afford to connect to an electric grid even if it is available. The experiences from earlier electrified small and middle-sized towns in Tanzania are that only a small fraction (12 % 1991)

[3.6] of the households within these towns is connected. Furthermore, the majority of the poorest people, which are in the biggest need of an increased standard of living, are living out in small villages that will not be reached by any electric grid in the nearest future. Unfortunately, we did not have the possibility to interview people out in the villages about their needs. Things like food (agriculture conditions), clean water, firewood, health care, and education are most certainly a higher priority than electricity for most of the individual households today. Still, electricity has the potential to benefit non-connected people indirectly. Healthcare as well as water supply can be improved, and if streetlights are installed, the sense of security will be higher. Electricity can also bring new industries and an economical expansion that the whole society will benefit from. There are many new technologies arising, which require electricity. One can say that electricity somehow is a necessity to keep in touch with the developments in the rest of the world.

Our impression is that electricity is not of first priority for most of the individual households today, but for the future development of the Tanzanian countryside, it is definitely important and does compete among the issues of the highest possible priority.

3.2 The Energy Situation in Tanzania

Total Energy Use

In Tanzania, 91% of the total energy used is in the form of biomass (mainly firewood and charcoal).

Petroleum accounts for 7% and hydropower for the generation of electricity only contributes with 1.5%. The contributions from gas and coal are insignificant. Households constitute the dominating end-user category; accounting for 85% of the entire energy used and cooking is the main application.

[3.7] The total per capita energy use in Tanzania is about 12 percent of that in Sweden.

Figure 3.2 shows an overview of the energy use, with a special highlight on the electricity.

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Biomass Oil Others

Electricity hydro Electricity thermal

Figure 3.2 Primary energy use and electricity generation in Tanzania. [3.7] [3.8]

Electric Energy

Hydropower dominates the generation of power in Tanzania, contributing with 1 477 GWh/year (1996). Thermal generation (mainly diesel-gensets) contributes the remaining 230 GWh. Hydropower has a capacity of 329 MW, and thermal generating capacity is not far behind with 214 MW. The total electricity consumption was 1 588 GWh/year (1996). The per capita consumption of electricity in Tanzania is only 0.35% of that in Sweden. In Table 3.1, the essential figures for the electricity situation in Tanzania are shown [3.8].

Table 3.1. Essential figures for electricity in Tanzania (1996) [3.8]

Generating capacity (MW)

Hydroelectric 329 61%

Thermal 214 39%

Totals 543 100%

Generation (production) (GWh)

Hydroelectric 1 477 87%

Thermal 230 13%

Totals 1 707 100%

Balance (GWh)

Production 1 707 100%

Total Imports 0 0%

Total Exports 0 0%

Losses 119 7%

Consumption 1 588 93%

Grid Coverage

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Figure 3.3 Extension of the national grid in Tanzania [3.6].

All regional towns are supplied with electricity, but of the district headquarters, 34 (out of 79) are not yet supplied (1993) [3.9]. (The district towns are sized between 3 000 – 50 000 people.) In addition, there are more than 8 000 villages waiting for electricity. It is estimated that about 85% of the population in Tanzania are living in areas without public electricity. Even those who are living in areas with electricity, only 12%, are connected [3.6]. Actually, there remains a lot of work before the whole country is electrified.

3.3 Desired Outcome of Electrification

What are the motives to continue electrifying rural Tanzania? What are the desired outcomes of electrification? To succeed with the leading objective of Sida, to defeat poverty, the outcome has to benefit the whole population and not only a few wealthy people. It is then important that electricity increases the number of productive economical activities like small industries and workshops that can give new incomes and new job opportunities to the area. Improved social service (e.g. health care, education, and streetlights) is of course also of big importance. However, if the electrification only gains a few households and it stops with that, without any further development, then electrification might be considered as a failure. The most pessimistic scenario is that the electrification causes increased class differences without increasing the average standard of living. However, it is invaluable to have people with good economical positions who are prepared and able to pay for building and running the electric system in the initial step. The majority will hopefully be able to afford power in a later stage when the costs are reduced.

(Existing) (Proposed)

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The following are indicators of a successful electrification formulated by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) are [3.6]:

• Electrification as a means for improvement of the standard of living for the rural people.

• Electrification as a means for improvement of the situation for women.

• Electrification as a base for small-scale industry.

• Electrification as a means to promote industry for a higher degree of processing of agricultural products.

• Electrification as a means to avoid deforestation.

However, it is only regarding the first of these indicators that substantial improvements can usually be found as a result of rural electrification. Improvements can also be found in the other areas, but the scale of these improvements is often overestimated. [3.6]

Later, when we discuss different supply options for Kasulu, we will see if there are any differences between each option regarding the possibilities to reach these aims.

In Chapter 5, you can read about what the people in Kasulu hoped electrification of their town would bring.

3.4 Rural Electrification Co-operatives Today

TANESCO has a limited budget and no possibility to expand the national grid at a rate that corresponds to the increasing demand of electricity in rural areas. To solve the dilemma, a new approach has been proposed in which villagers form rural electrification co-operatives, similar to how rural areas of Sweden and the USA were electrified. The co-operatives are responsible for the economy (no subsidisation) and organisation. Operation and maintenance of the systems are also duties of the co-operatives, but with technical support from TANESCO.

In September 1993, the first electrification co-operative was formed, UECCO (Urambo Electric Consumers Co-operative Limited), in Urambo, Tabora region. Urambo is a village with about 12 000 inhabitants. However, only a small fraction of them is presently living in areas that are reached by the electric grid. The co-operative is managed by a voluntary group of local businessmen with technical and financial support from TANESCO and SEI. UECCO is legally independent of TANESCO and can set its own tariffs. To regain the actual operation and administration costs (not investment), the tariffs have been as much as fifteen times the basic TANESCO rate. (The TANESCO tariff subsidises the small consumers.) The system is supplied by a diesel genset. Due to low load during the daytime, the system has only been operating during the evening hours. [3.10] [3.11] [3.12]

Two other villages have also been involved in projects involving co-operative management of electric systems; the villages are Mbinga and Kasulu. Mbinga is isolated from the national grid, but can buy power from a coffee curing plant with an excess generation capacity. KAECCOS (Kasulu Electric Consumers Co-operative Society), in Kasulu, Kigoma region, was the latest co-operative to be formed.

(See more about KAECCOS in Chapter 5.) [3.10]

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3.5 Experiences from UECCO

From the interviews during our visit in Urambo and from other observations that we made, we have compiled some comments about the electric system and the co-operative in Urambo. (The interviews can be found in Appendix K.) Comments regarding the environmental situation can be found in Chapter 4.

System Operation

During our stay in Urambo, the scheduled operating hours were from 18:30 to 01:00. During those hours, the system ran without problem. In previous years, there had been big problems with the reliability, but these problems seemed to be resolved, probably thanks to a new diesel generator that was installed in the beginning of 1999. Most of the interviewed were also satisfied with the quality (no big problems with voltage fluctuations).

The energy charge (metered flat rate) was 300 TSh/kWh (July-99) (equals 0.38 US$/kWh, Jan-99).

The number of connected consumers was 146 (June 1999), the number of members were 175 (July-99) and 30 more were waiting to become members (July-99).

Main Applications

Lighting is definitely the most common application. It is estimated to account for 40% of the total load. The rest is mainly household applications like fans, irons, radio, TV, cookers, refrigerators, and freezers. [3.11]

One of the supply options that we are considering for Kasulu is solar-PV systems. With a solar PV- system, it is not possible to use the electricity for high load applications like ironing, cookers, and hotplates. We asked the connected consumers if they would be satisfied today if they could not make use of those high load applications; 35% said that they would be, the rest said they would not. Those who said that they would be satisfied also explained that if the electricity were cheaper, they would also like to use high load applications. However, lighting was considered much more important than the high load applications.

Social Effects

24-hour reliable supply seems to be a necessity in order to see any substantial economical and industrial progresses. As mentioned, the electricity in Urambo is only available during a few evening hours resulting in electricity that is mainly used for domestic consumption purposes like lighting, ironing, television, and refrigerators. The wanted increase in industrial productivity, thanks to the electricity, has not materialised in Urambo. For instance, the carpenters seen in Figure 3.4 cannot make use of the electricity as there is no supply during the day. In the business sector an increase in economical activities was to be seen. This was thanks to, for example, lighting during the evening, e.g.

extended opening hours for the shops, possibilities to keep cold drinks, etc. However, for the economic balance of the town as whole, these activities belong to the consumption side and not to the production side. This means that there is a risk that the electricity in a system, with supply only during the evening, may cause new needs without bringing any new productivity.

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Still the inhabitants of Urambo, even those who were not connected, seemed to be very happy to have an electric system in their town. An often repeated expression was:

“Something is better than nothing!” Among the connected, lighting was considered most valuable. For those who were not connected, lighting (streetlights) was also number one.

Other important things for both connected and not connected were possibilities to get cold drinks and access to information thanks to television. There were places where the public could come and see television for a small fee.

Future Expansion

In Urambo the expansion of the load and operational hours are limited due to several factors. One of them is the size of the operating diesel genset (see Figure 3.5). The generator is rated 135 kVA (108 kW). During the operating hours it runs at less than 50% of its capacity. During the rest of the day the load is even lower and, consequently, the co-operative cannot operate during this time. To run a diesel engine with a low load causes bad efficiency (high fuel consumption per kWh produced) and it is also harmful to the engine.

One solution to the problem with under loading might be quite simple. Many of the not connected we talked to in Urambo had no information of what to do to become a member of UECCO, and how much it would cost to get electricity to their house. If people can get clear information of the costs, it is would be much easier for them to calculate their budget so that they can afford to be connected. This means that better information will bring more members and hence, raise the load.

The next problem we were told about was a lack of meters. There are a number of households and businesses who are waiting to become connected, but cannot due to a lack of meters. There are meters available which can be purchased from TANESCO at a price of 43 000 TSh each. Whether or not the cost is too high for the co- operative or the new consumers to absorb is hard for us to estimate. Compared to the average consumers electricity bill of about 18 000 TSh per month (60 kWh/month at a price of 300 TSh/kWh, July-99), it does not seem to be an astronomical investment. It might be better for the co-operative to take some initiative and use available funds and, if possible, credits to purchase as many meters as possible instead of waiting for free meters. An increase of the load would reduce the operational cost per kWh produced energy and in the end cover the expenses for the new meters.

Figure 3.5 Diesel generator in Urambo (135 kVA), and plant

operator, Mr. P. Nkobi.

Figure 3.4 Carpenters in Urambo.

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C HAPTER 4

Environmental Issues

This chapter contains a brief discussion about environmental issues. The problem of global warming from a Tanzanian perspective, some environmental problems that are more specific to Tanzania, and finally, environmental problems that are associated with the electric power production in Tanzania today are all presented.

4.1 Global Warming

Causes of Global Warming

Gas emissions from human activities threaten to raise the average temperature on Earth. The consequences of this might be changes in global weather systems followed by different kinds of natural catastrophes. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal gas; others like ozone (O3), methane (CH4), and dinitrogen monoxide (N2O) are also of importance [4.1].

Large amounts of carbon have been stored in the ground as coal, oil, and natural gas since prehistoric times. The burning of these fossil fuels is the main source to anthropogenic carbon dioxide accounting for a world net emission of 20 GtCO2 (1012 kg carbon dioxide) per year. Deforestation and land-use changes account for a net emission of 4 GtCO2. The oceans, soils, and vegetation have a big buffer capacity, but the annual net increase of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is still 12 GtCO2. [4.2]

Before the industrialisation started, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was estimated at about 280 parts per million (ppm). Today, carbon dioxide is measured at 360 ppm [4.3] and it is rising steadily. Carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases are heat reflecting to help keep the planet temperature at a pleasant level. But too much of a good thing might become a bad thing. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), many calculations clearly show that the Earth is already committed to some global warming, because of past and current emissions [4.4]. Doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would increase the average temperature on the Earth by approximately 1.5 – 4.5 °C [4.1].

Highly industrialised countries completely dominate the anthropogenic (not natural) carbon dioxide emissions. One–third of the population on Earth accounts for 75% of the total emissions from fossil fuels and another third of the population has only 5% at its disposal. To visualise the imbalance in emissions, we have plotted the per capita carbon dioxide emissions from burning of fossil fuels towards the cumulative population for all the countries in the world (see Figure 4.1).

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- 5 10 15 20 25 30

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Cumulative population (10^9) CO2 emissions per capita (1000 kg/year)

Figure 4.1. World total CO2 emissions from burning of fossil fuels plotted as per capita emissions in all countries verses the cumulative population. (Figures used are from 1996.) [4.5]

By using this way of plotting, the area under the curve corresponds to the total carbon dioxide emissions of the world. Deforestation and land-use change are not included, but even when they are included, the imbalance is indisputable.

Five countries are high lightened in Figure 4.1. The countries and their annual per capita are USA, 20 000 kg; Sweden 6 200 kg; China, 2 800 kg; India 1 000 kg, and Tanzania, 70 kg. The world average is 3 900 kg.

In Tanzania the contribution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from deforestation is high relative to the carbon dioxide from fossil fuels. We have estimated the deforestation in Tanzania to cause a net emission of around 700 kg per person per yeari. This makes an approximate total per capita emission of 800 kg. Even with deforestation included, the Tanzanian people are among the outliners with the lowest per capita emissions.

It is difficult to talk about sustainable levels of carbon dioxide emissions, but it is possible to give examples. The increase in emissions has so far been rapid. To stabilise the concentration in the atmosphere at a maximum of 450 ppm, the total emissions may increase only until year 2020. After that, a sharp decrease is needed: In 2050, the emissions have to be lower than today; in 2100 the emissions have to be less than 65% of today’s level [4.6]. With today’s population, 65% of today’s emissions (deforestation included) is equivalent to 3 000 kg of carbon dioxide per person per year.

Compared with this, the per capita emissions in Tanzania are much below the world average sustainable level (in a 100-year perspective).

Possible Effects of Global Warming in Tanzania

As we have seen, Tanzania’s share of the global carbon dioxide emissions is insignificant. Still Tanzania is among the countries that are expected to be most affected by the effects of global warming. Bert Bolin states that the following problems will follow a weather systems change caused by a global warming [4.6]:

USA

Sweden

China

India

Tanzania

References

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