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The Treasurer's Guide to the Municipality

Essays on Sub-Sovereign Finance

av

David Knezevic

Akademisk avhandling

Avhandling för filosofie doktorsexamen i nationalekonomi, som kommer att försvaras offentligt

fredagen den 8 mars 2019 kl. 13.15, Hörsal M, Örebro universitet Opponent: Professor Stig Vinther Møller

Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University Århus, Danmark

Örebro universitet Handelshögskolan 701 82 ÖREBRO

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Abstract

David Knezevic (2019): The Treasurer's Guide to the Municipality - Essays on Sub-Sovereign Finance. Örebro Studies in Economics 41.

This thesis presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of the current state of Swedish sub-sovereign finance from multiple perspectives, starting from the local and moving to the national. Financial risks may occur in a long line of financial obligations and transactions. Thus, for understanding the full scope of financial risks one perspective is not sufficient. From a socie-tal perspective the question of sub-sovereign debt management is im-portant since mismanagement may lead to substantial risks which may impact the lives of citizens by a weakening of the Swedish public pro-grams. Sub-sovereign debt is mainly funded by issuing financial securities in both national and foreign capital markets. Understanding the market perception regarding the risk profile of Swedish sub-sovereigns may be beneficial in improving the funding conditions of the sector and in turn reduce the cost of public investments. Financial markets are however not stand-alone entities and are heavily impacted by the policy decisions of public institutions. Thus, monetary policy plays an important role in af-fecting financial markets and consequently the funding conditions of Swe-dish sub-sovereigns. Given the contemporary approach to monetary policy this effect may be somewhat different compared to what it has been his-torically. There are however reasons to suspect that the national policy decisions are in large part driven by international occurrences and by for-eign governments through international spillovers. Thus, for understand-ing the interlinked nature of financial markets a wider perspective is need-ed. These are some of the areas which are investigated in this thesis. Keywords: Bayesian VAR, Cointegration, Financial crisis, Intertemporal diversification, Risk premium decomposition, Roll-over risk, Small open economy, Spillovers, Spread, Unconventional monetary policy

David Knezevic, Örebro University School of Business Örebro University, SE-701 82 Örebro, Sweden, E-Mail: david.knezevic@oru.se

Kommuninvest of Sweden, Box 124 701 42 Örebro, Sweden E-Mail: david.knezevic@kommuninvest.se

E-Mail: david.knezevic@outlook.com

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