SADCC Part

SADCC Country Studies, Part I

ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT I N AFRICA 3

ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT I N SOUTHERN A F R I C A SADCC COUNTRY STUDIES PART I

Edited by

Phi1 O'Keefe and Barry Munslow

Published by

THE BEIJER INSTITUTE The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stockholm, Sweden

THE SCANDINAVIAN INSTITUTE OF AFRICAN STUDIES

Uppsala , Sweden

The s e r i e s "Energy, Environment and Development i n Africa" i s pub- l i s h e d j o i n t l y by t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i - t u t e of African S t u d i e s , with f i n a n c i a l support from t h e Swedish I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Authority (SIDA). This book, t o g e t h e r with a s e r i e s of companion volumes r e p o r t s on a study of Energy and Development i n t h e SADCC Countries j o i n t l y undertaken by t h e SADCC Energy Sector and t h e various member s t a t e s of SADCC, i n c o l l a b o r - a t i o n with t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e .

ISSN 0281-8515 ISBN 91-7106-229-7

@

The B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e of African S t u d i e s 1984

P r i n t e d i n Sweden by

Bohuslaningens AB, Uddevalla 1984

FOREWORD

T h i s Volume c o n t a i n s t h e f i r s t p a r t of a s e r i e s of n i n e energy c o u n t r y s t u d i e s , p r e p a r e d by t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e a s background m a t e r i a l f o r t h e SADCC Regional Energy Seminar i n H a r a r e , December 1982. I would l i k e t o thank t h e group of a u t h o r s most warmly f o r t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n s . T h e i r work would n o t have been p o s s i b l e w i t h o u t t h e kind c o o p e r a t i o n of many M i n i s t r i e s and a u t h o r i t i e s concerned with energy in t h e n i n e SADCC c o u n t r i e s . I am a l s o pleased t o thank P r o f e s s o r Phi1 O'Keefe and Dr Barry Munslow f o r e d i t i n g t h i s Volume and my Deputy D i r e c t o r , Dr Lars K r i s t o f e r s o n , f o r h i s involvement i n t h e p r e p a r a t o r y work needed t h r o u g h o u t t h e SADCC Energy P r o j e c t . Final l y , I g r a t e f u l l y acknowledge t h e f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t of SIDA f o r t h e f i e l d work, t h e Seminar and t h e p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s Volume.

Gordon

T.

Goodman

September 1984

ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT I N SOUTHERN AFRICA SADCC COUNTRY STUDIES PART

I

CONTENTS

FOREWORD LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES

INTRODUCTION

P h i 1 O'Keefe and B a r r y Munslow 1. ANGOLA

M.R. Bhagavan 2. BOTSWANA

Ben Wisner 3. LESOTHO

A l a n F r o l i c h 4. MALAWI

R i c h a r d Scobey

i i i v i v i i i

INDEX 187

-

v i

-

TABLES

Page

M a i n Commodities T r a d e d

. . . .

D i r e c t i o n Of T r a d e

. . . .

Summary Of H o u s e h o l d E n e r g y

Consumption And Demand

. . . .

T o t a l E n e r g y Consumption And Demand

.

Summary O f Consumpti on, E x c l u d i n g H o u s e h o l d s

. . . .

. .

.

.

. . . .

. P r o d u c t i o n And Consumption O f

P e t r o l e u m

. . . . .

.

.

. .

.

. . .

.

P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s I n A g r i c u l t u r e

. .

P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s I n I n d u s t r y

. . .

P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s I n T r a n s p o r t

. . .

A g r i c u l t u r a l Land .

.

^.

. .

. . . . . Wood S u p p l y To I n d u s t r y

. . . .

Wood S u p p l y PO t e n t i a1

. . . .

^{. . .}

.

P o t e n t i a l E n e r g y Resources

. . . . .

E l e c t r i c i t y G e n e r a t i o n And

Consumption

. . . .

^.

.

O t h e r Systems

. . . .

H y d r o e l e c t r i c Power

. . . .

P r o d u c t i o n And E x p o r t Of Crude

P e t r o l e u m .

. . . .

^.

. . . . .

Share O f O i l F i e l d s I n P r o d u c t i o n

. .

P r o d u c t i o n E x p o r t And I m p o r t O f R e f i n e d P e t r o l e u m

. . . .

A l . 1 B a s i c D a t a On A n g o l a

. . . .

A1.2 E l e c t r i c i t y Consumption By S e c t o r

. .

A1.3 E l e c t r i c i t y Consumption By

M a n u f a c t u r i n g S e c t o r .

.

.

. . . .

.

A1.4

E l e c t r i c i t y C a p a c i t y By P l a n t Type

.

A l . 5 P r i c e O f R e f i n e d P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s

.

Botswana

2 . 1 Botswana Economic B a c k g r o u n d . .

.

^.

2.2 Urban Month1 y E x p e n d i t u r e P e r

H o u s e h o l d

.

.

. . . . .

.

.

.

.

.

. .

.

v i i

.

. . .

Women In A g r i c u l t u r e

. . .

Major I n d u s t r i a l Users

. . .

End-u s e Requirements

. . .

F i n a l Consumption By S e c t o r

. . .

F i n a l Consumption By Fuel

. . .

F i n a l Consumption

Primary Resource Requirement . . . .

Natural Wood Biomass Supply . . . . . .

Coal F i e l d s In Botswana

Refined Petroleum Imports . . .

Comparisons Of Supply S t a t i s t i c s . .

E l e c t r i c i t y Generation . . .

R e l a t i v e Rail Costs . . .

Lesotho

Demographic Summary Of Lesotho . . . 139

S e l e c t e d Economic I n d i c a t o r s . . . . 142

GDP By Source A t C u r r e n t And C o n s t a n t Cost . . . 143

Growth Rates By Economic A c t i v i t y .

.

144

Per C a p i t a GDP and GNP . . . 145

Average Real Growth Rate For Per C a p i t a GDP . . . 145

F i n a l Consumption Of Fuel By S e c t o r . 149 "1980" Energy Bal ance . . . ¹⁵⁰

Rural Household Consumption . . . 154

Urban Household Consumption . . . 155

Land C a p a b i l i t y . . . 157

Coal Consumption . . . 162

E l e c t r i c i t y S a l e s . . . 164

P o t e n t i a1 Small Hydro E l e c t r i c

P r o j e c t s . . . 167

.

v i i i .

FIGURES

Page

.

Natural Regions Of Angola . . .

Angol an Vegetation . . .

Angol an Rai nf a1 l . . .

Angolan E l e c t r i c i t y D i s t r i b u t i o n . . . . .

Angolan Oil Concessions

Republ i c Of Botswana . . .

Botswana Rainfall . . .

Vegetation In Botswana . . .

Coal f i e 1 ds In Botswana . . .

Coal Transport . . .

E l e c t r i c i t y Supply And D i s t r i b u t i o n .

Botswana's Energy Options . . .

INTRODUCTION

Energy p r o v i s i o n i s v i t a l t o e v e r y development e f f o r t ; w i t h o u t i t t h e r e can be no i n c r e a s e d i n d u s t r i a l o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n , and no improvement i n t h e b a s i c l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . An awareness o f t h e importance o f s t u d y i n g energy as a v i t a l p a r t o f t h e development process emerged under t h e dual impetus o f t h e o i l p r i c e r i s e s o f t h e e a r l y 1970s and t h e growing s h o r t a g e b e i n g e x p e r i e n c e d o f t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s upon which r u r a l producers have r e l i e d i n many areas. Both concerns p r o v i d e t h e e s s e n t i a l themes r u n n i n g t h r o u g h t h i s work. These two volumes f u r n i s h an i n - d e p t h a n a l y s i s and o v e r v i e w of each o f t h e n i n e c o u n t r i e s w h i c h t o g e t h e r comprise t h e Southern A f r i c a n Development C o o r d i n a t i o n Conference. The r e s e a r c h was c a r r i e d o u t under t h e a u s p i c e s o f t h e Bei j e r I n s t i t u t e o f t h e Royal Swedish Academy o f Sciences a t t h e r e q u e s t o f t h e SAOCC c o u n t r i e s i n 1982.

These c o u n t r y case s t u d i e s p r o v i d e d t h e background d a t a f o r t h e summary volume b e i n g pub1 i s h e d i n p a r a l l e l e n t i t l e d SADCC: Energy and Development t o t h e Year 2000, which draws t o g e t h e r a l l o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r y d a t a t o produce an aggregate r e g i o n a l energy p i c t u r e and makes p r o j e c t i o n s t o t h e y e a r 2000. W h i l s t t h e c o u n t r y case s t u d i e s a r e v a l u a b l e i n t h e i r own r i g h t , s e e k i n g as t h e y do t o p r o v i d e a breakdown o f energy use i n each economy, t h e r e a d e r i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e r e g i o n a l p i c t u r e i s r e f e r r e d t o t h e accompanying summary v o l u m e . ( l )

What u n i f i e s t h e approach o f t h e a u t h o r s o f these i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r y s t u d i e s i s a common methodology o f e s t a b l i s h i n g n a t i o n a l energy balances f r o m a demand p e r s p e c t i v e . T h i s emphasis on an end-use approach t o energy i s an i m p o r t a n t one.

N a t i o n a l energy accounts a r e f r e q u e n t l y b u i l t on a h i g h l y aggregated b a s i s . They a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r m a j o r sources o f commerci a1 f u e l S, hydrocarbons and e l e c t r i c i t y , b u t t h e o r i e n t a t i o n i s towards s u p p l y i s s u e s . Since t h e m a j o r i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r p1 anning, admini s t r a t i o n , p r o d u c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n have been e s t a b l i shed f o r many y e a r s and a r e c r i t i c a l l y f o c u s e d on s u p p l y issues, t h i s s i t u a t i o n i s n o t unexpected. I f , however, d a t a f r o m t h e s e i n s t i t u t i o n s i s u t i l i s e d t o b u i l d energy accounts, two m a j o r problems emerge. F i r s t , i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o assess t h e demand f o r commercial f u e l s b y end-use and, consequently, i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o d e s i g n c o n s e r v a t i o n i n i t i a t i v e s . Second1 y, because m a j o r i n s t i t u t i o n s on1 y deal w i t h commerci a1 f u e l S, t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r w h i c h domi n a t e s t h e energy economies o f A f r i c a i s l e f t unrecorded. I n o r d e r t o a v o i d t h e o b v i o u s problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o n v e n t i o n a l s u p p l y a n a l y s i s , each r e s e a r c h e r was r e q u e s t e d t o a d o p t a demand approach t o t h e problem o f energy a c c o u n t i n g .

T h i s demand a p p r o a c h c l e a r l y d e m o n s t r a t e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n t h e o v e r a l l e n e r g y b a l a n c e . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r o f r u r a l h o u s e h o l d demand dominates t h e e n e r g y a c c o u n t s , f r e q u e n t 1 y d w a r f i n g t h e t o t a l commercial s e c t o r . The emphasis on r u r a l h o u s e h o l d demand s e r v e s t h r e e u s e f u l f u n c t i o n s , name1 y :

1.

I t a l l o w s p r o j e c t i o n s o f f u t u r e e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n t o be p r o j e c t e d f r o m a demographic base o f h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n p l u c k i n g some a r b i t r a r y economic i n d i c a t o r o u t o f c o n t e x t :

2. I t f o c u s e s a t t e n t i o n on t h e b i o l o g i c a l r e s o u r c e s o f a c o u n t r y w h i c h , g i v e n t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f a g r i c u l t u r e t o t h e development s t r a t e g y o f SADCC member s t a t e s , i s t h e c r u c i a l a r e a f o r d e v e l o p m e n t i n i t i a t i v e s :

3 . I t p l a c e s a p p r o p r i a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e c r i t i c a l r o l e o f women i n o b t a i n i n g f u e l , and o t h e r b a s i c needs, i n m a i n t a i n i n g t h e p r o d u c t i o n and r e p r o d u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s o f p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d s . As such, i t i s a complementary a n a l y s i s t h a t m u s t be p l a c e d a1 o n g s i d e s u p p l y d a t a .

A f o u r t h volume has a l s o emerqed o u t o f t h e r e s e a r c h . ( 2 ) T h i s was p r o d u c e d b y a g r o u p w o r k i n g Gnder P r o f e s s o r R i c h a r d p i e t , and i s e n t i t l e d M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y a n d Economic Devel opment i n t h e SADCC C o u n t r i e s .

P h i 1

0'

K e e f e and B a r r y Munslow

REFERENCES

1 . C . Simoes ( E d ) , SADCC: Energy and Development t o t h e Year 2000, i n Energy, E n v i r o n m e n t and Development i n A f r i c a Vo1.2.

SADCC Energy S e c t o r , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e B e i j e r I n s t - i t u t e and t h e S c a n d i n a v i a n I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , 1984.

2. R. Peet, M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y and Economic Development i n t h e SADCC C o u n t r i e s , i n Energy, E n v i r o n m e n t and Development i n A f r i c a Vol.5. SADCC Energy S e c t o r , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e S c a n d i n a v i a n I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , 1984.

REFERENCES

--p

1. C. Simoes (Ed), SADCC: Energy and Development t o t h e Year 2000, i n Energy, Environment and Development i n m c a Vo1.2.

m C Energy S e c t o r , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e B e i j e r I n s t - i t u t e and t h e S c a n d i n a v i a n I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n Studies, 1984.

2. R. Peet, M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y and Economic Development i n t h e SADCC C o u n t r i e s , i n Energy, Environment and Development i n A f r i c a Vo1.5. SADCC Energy S e c t o r , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , 1984.

C H A P T E R 1

A N G O L A

b Y

M . R . B H A G A V A N

AN OUTLINE OF THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ANGOLA.

Angola became independent i n November 1975, when t h e Movimento Popul a r p a r a a L i b e r t a c a o de Angola (MPLA) p r o c l aimed t h e P e o p l e ' s R e p u b l i c o f Angola. The F i r s t War o f L i b e r a t i o n , f o u g h t a g a i n s t t h e Portuguese c o l o n i a l r e g i m e f r o m 1961 t o 1975, had h a r d l y ended, when MPLA was f o r c e d t o f i g h t a Second War of L i b e r a t i o n , t h i s t i m e a g a i n s t t h e i n v a d i n g South A f r i c a n and Z a i r r a n t r o o p s and t h e i r a l l i e s w i t h i n t h e UNITA ( N a t i o n a l Union f o r t h e T o t a l Independence of Angola) and FNLA ( N a t i o n a l F r o n t f o r t h e L i b e r a t i o n of A n g o l a ) . A1 though t h e enemy t r o o p s were beaten back s u c c e s s f u l l y by A p r i l 1976, t h e war has c o n t i n u e d unabated i n t h e s o u t h e r n p r o v i n c e s w h i c h b o r d e r on Namibia, where t h e South A f r i c a n t r o o p s have invaded and o c c u p i e d a s i z e a b l e chunk o f t e r r i t o r y . Thus, f r o m t h e moment o f independence i n 1975 t o t h i s day, i . e . f o r e i g h t y e a r s , t h e government o f Angola has had t o d i v e r t l a r g e amounts o f f i n a n c i a l and t e c h n i c a l r e s o u r c e s , as we1 l as l a r g e numbers o f s k i l l e d t e c h n i c a l and o t h e r c a d r e s t o c o u n t e r t h e ongoing South A f r i c a n a g g r e s s i o n . I n 1976, t h e r e t r e a t i n g South A f r i c a n , Z a i r e a n , UNITA and FNLA t r o o p s p1 undered i n d u s t r i a1 equipment, d i e s e l e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t o r s , t r a c t o r s , b o a t s and t r u c k s , and d e s t r o y e d what t h e y c o u l d n o t t a k e away. They blew up b r i d g e s and r o a d s . A l t h o u g h t h e r o a d s and b r i d g e s have now been r e b u i l t , t h e cumul a t i v e e f f e c t o f t h e ongoing war on t h e economy has been d i s a s t r o u s . The commercial a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n a r e today o n l y 30 t o 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e pre- independence 1973 l e v e l s . (1973 i s r e g a r d e d as h i s t o r i c a l l y t h e b e s t y e a r so f a r f r o m t h e p o i n t o f view o f p r o d u c t i o n . The p a r t y and t h e government r e g a r d t h e 1973 l e v e l s as t h e t a r g e t s t o a c h i e v e i n t h e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e economy).

By 1974, t h e number o f Portuguese s e t t l e r s had r i s e n t o 400,000. They had monopolized a l l t h e s k i l l e d work i n t h e c o u n t r y , f r o m t h e l o w e s t t o t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l , i n e v e r y socio-economic s e c t o r . Angolans were c o n f i n e d t o s e m i - s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e , c o n t r a c t and f o r c e d l a b o u r on cash c r o p p l a n t a t i o n s a t s t a r v a t i o n wages, and u n s k i l l e d manual l a b o u r i n i n d u s t r y , t r a n s p o r t and s e r v i c e s e c t o r s . Very few were a l l o w e d t o o b t a i n secondary school e d u c a t i o n . A small number o f educated urban Angol ans were a1 lowed i n t o c l e r i c a l and t e c h n i c a l j o b s .

F o l l o w i n g independence, w i t h i n a y e a r ( 1 9 7 5 - 7 6 ) , a l m o s t a l l t h e Portuguese s e t t l e r s l e f t t h e c o u n t r y . T h i s sudden mass exodus o f n e a r l y 400,000 s k i l l e d p e o p l e l e f t t h e monetized and o r g a n i s e d s e c t o r s o f t h e Angolan economy i n a t o t a l l y c r i p p l e d s t a t e . Angolans, who u n t i l t h e n had been p r e v e n t e d b y t h e c o l o n i a l regime f r o m a c q u i r i n g s k i l l s , had t o f i l l t h i s huge vacuum as w e l l as t h e y c o u l d , and l e a r n e s s e n t i a l s k i l l s s p e e d i l y

o n - t h e - j o b . The tremendous s h o r t a g e o f s k i l l e d manpower i s t h e s i n g l e m o s t c r i t i c a l f a c t o r h o l d i n g back t h e r e c o v e r y o f t h e economy. The gap has been p a r t l y f i l l e d b y r e c r u i t i n g f o r e i g n t e c h n i c i a n s and e x p e r t s ( c a l l e d " c o o p e r a n t e s " ) f r o m a l a r g e number o f c o u n t r i e s i n Europe, N o r t h and S o u t h America, and A s i a .

A s m a l l s e c t i o n o f t h e P o r t u g u e s e s e t t l e r p o p u l a t i o n had owned and o p e r a t e d l a r g e f a r m s , s m a l l and medium s i z e d m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r i e s , and t r a n s p o r t and s e r v i c e s e c t o r e s t a b l i s h m e n t s . These w e r e abandoned b y them as t h e y f l e d t h e c o u n t r y . They t o o k w i t h them c o n s i d e r a b l e q u a n t i t i e s o f i n d u s t r i a l and t r a n s p o r t e q u i p m e n t and i n many i n s t a n c e s t h e y d e l i b e r a t e 1 y s a b o t a g e d t h e e q u i p m e n t t h e y had t o l e a v e b e h i n d . As p r o d u c t i o n had come t o a h a l t i n t h e abandoned f a r m s and i n d u s t r i a l u n i t s , and n o Angol an e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l c l ass was i n p l a c e t o t a k e o v e r and r u n them, t h e S t a t e h a d l i t t l e c h o i c e b u t t o n a t i o n a l i z e them. I n t h i s f a s h i o n , a b o u t 85 p e r c e n t o f a l l i n d u s t r i a l u n i t s , and a l m o s t a l l o f t h e 6400 l a r g e f a r m s and p l a n t a t i o n s came t o b e State- owned, u n d e r t h e Law on S t a t e I n t e r v e n t i o n p a s s e d i n March 1976. T h i s measure a f f e c t e d on1 y t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t s abandoned b y t h e f l e e i n g P o r t u g u e s e . L a r g e i n d u s t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g m a n u f a c t u r i n g and m i n i n g , w h i c h b e l o n g e d t o n o n - P o r t u g u e s e f o r e i g n c a p i t a l w e r e n o t n a t i o n a l i z e d . A l l b a n k i n g , i n s u r a n c e , f o r e i g n t r a d e and w h o l e s a l e i n t e r n a l t r a d e w e r e a l s o n a t i o n a l i z e d , and so w e r e a l l m i n e r a l and f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s , a n d e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i n g and d i s t r i b u t i n g companies, and commerci a1 t r a n s p o r t .

I n December 1978, t h e l a t e P r e s i d e n t 0 r . A g h o s t i n o N e t o s a i d t h a t t h e g o v e r n m e n t was n o t opposed t o t h e p r i v a t e o w n e r s h i p o f s m a l l e n t e r p r i z e s b y Angol ans. Small d o m e s t i c p r i v a t e c a p i t a l c a n o p e r a t e on i t s own t o d a y i n A n g o l a . F o r e i g n c a p i t a l has been made v e r y welcome. The J u l y 1979 Law on F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t o f f e r s e x t r e m e 1 y a t t r a c t i v e t e r m s t o f o r e i g n i n v e s t o r s : n o n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n f o r 1 0 t o 15 y e a r s , b u t i f and when n a t i o n a l i s a t i o n i s proposed, handsome c o m p e n s a t i o n w i l l b e p a i d , i n c l u d i n g t h e i n t e r e s t a c c r u i n g , i n t h e f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y i n w h i c h t h e i n v e s t m e n t was made; r e p a t r i a t i o n o f p r o f i t s u p t o 25 p e r c e n t o f t h e c a p i t a l i n v e s t e d ; a c c e s s t o d o m e s t i c Angol an c r e d i t ; e x e m p t i o n s f r o m , and a r e d u c t i o n o f , v a r i o u s t a x e s and e x p o r t and i m p o r t d u t i e s .

D e s p i t e t h e encouragement b e i n g shown t o s m a l l p r i v a t e d o m e s t i c c a p i t a l

,

a l m o s t n o p r i v a t e d o m e s t i c e n t e r p r i s e s have been e s t a b l i s h e d . The p r i n c i p a l r e a s o n s o f f e r e d f o r t h i s l a c k o f i n t e r e s t a r e t h a t t h e r e a r e no consumer goods on w h i c h t o spend t h e money b e i n g made, and n o p o s s i b i l i t y f o r p r i v a t e e n t e r p r i s e s and i n d i v i d u a l S t o i m p o r t consumer d u r a b l e s , c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l s , e t c . The s e v e r e s h o r t a g e o f e s s e n t i a l consumer goods has l e d t o t h r e e s e r i o u s p r o b l e m s . F i r s t , t h e p u r c h a s i n g power o f t h e Kwanza i s e x t r e m e l y p o o r on t h e open m a r k e t . F o r i n s t a n c e , e s s e n t i a l f o o d s w h i c h a r e r a t i o n e d i n t h e P e o p l e ' s Shops where t h e y a r e s o l d a t l o w , f i x e d and c o n t r o l l e d p r i c e s , a r e s o l d on

t h e open m a r k e t i n t h e towns a t a n y t h i n g b e t w e e n 100 t o 400 t i m e s t h e o f f i c i a l c o n t r o l l e d p r i c e . Second, t h e s m a l l amounts o f f o o d t h e p e a s a n t r y w a n t s t o s e l l i s n o t g i v e n t o t h e S t a t e f o r s a l e i n t h e P e o p l e ' s Shops, b u t goes t o t h e open m a r k e t where i t f e t c h e 5 a s t r o n o m i c a l p r i c e s . T h i r d , t h e l a c k o f consumer goods means t h a t t h e p e a s a n t s have no i n c e n t i v e t o p r o d u c e more f o r s a l e i n t h e u r b a n m a r k e t s . I n e f f e c t , t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n b y t h e s e m i - s u b s i s t e n c e p e a s a n t r y has become d e - l i n k e d f r o m t h e u r b a n m a r k e t economy. The S t a t e i s f i n d i n g i t h a r d t o r e - e s t a b l i s h t h i s l i n k . O t h e r f a c t o r s t h a t have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s d e - l i n k i n g o f p e a s a n t p r o d u c t i o n f r o m t h e r e s t o f t h e economy a r e t h e s e v e r e d i s r u p t i o n s t h a t c o n t i n u e i n t h e f e r t i l e a r e a s o f t h e c e n t r a l h i g h l a n d s and t h e breakdown o f c o m m e r c i a l t r a n s p o r t between t h e c o u n t r y s i d e and t h e town as a r e s u l t o f m i l i t a r y a c t i v i t y and s e c u r i t y p r o b l e m s .

I n 1982, i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n was o n l y 30 t o 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e 1973 l e v e l s , i n p a r t i c u l a r i n t h e f o o d p r o c e s s i n g and e s s e n t i a l consumer goods b r a n c h e s . T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l r e a s o n s f o r t h i s : t h e l a c k o f t e c h n i c i a n s , s k i l l e d w o r k e r s , and managers, w h i c h c o n t r i b u t e s t o m a c h i n e r y breakdowns and t h e i n t e r r u p t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n ; l a c k o f s p a r e p a r t s ; l a c k o f raw m a t e r i a l s and i n t e r m e d i a t e goods; and a b s e n t e e i s m b y t h e w o r k f o r c e because t h e y have t o spend l o n g h o u r s e a c h d a y q u e u i n g i n o r d e r t o p u r c h a s e e s s e n t i a l f o o d s i n t h e P e o p l e ' s Shops.

O u t o f t h e 6400 l a r g e f a r m s and p l a n t a t i o n s abandoned b y t h e P o r t u g u e s e s e t t l e r s , and t a k e n o v e r b y t h e S t a t e , o n l y a f e w h u n d r e d a r e w o r k i n g . As a r e s u l t , t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f e x p o r t c a s h c r o p s l i k e c o f f e e , c o t t o n , s u g a r c a n e , t o b a c c o , s i s a l , p a l m k e r n e l S , e t c . has f a 1 l e n d r a s t i c a l l y . The p r o d u c t i o n i n 1 9 8 1 o f c o f f e e , t h e p r i n c i p a l e x p o r t c r o p and f o r m e r l y t h e t h i r d m o s t i m p o r t a n t e x p o r t e a r n e r , was down t o 1 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e 1973 f i g u r e . The r e a s o n s f o r t h e d e c l i n e a r e : o n c e a g a i n , a l a c k o f managers and t e c h n i c i a n s ; t h e l a c k o f i m p o r t e d i n p u t s l i k e f e r t i l iz e r s and a g r i c u l t u r a l c h e m i c a l s ; and, m o s t c r u c i a l l y , t h e w i t h d r a w a l b y p e a s a n t s o f t h e i r wage l a b o u r i n f a r m s and p l a n t a t i o n s as t h e c o l o n i a l y o k e o f f o r c e d l a b o u r was l i f t e d and t h e y w e n t back t o t h e i r own s u b s i s t e n c e f a r m i n g .

The g o v e r n m e n t i s s u p p l y i n g t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n a l m o s t e n t i r e l y t h r o u g h i m p o r t s . I n 1 9 8 1 and 1982, i m p o r t s o f e s s e n t i a l f o o d s and consumer goods t o o k u p n e a r l y 4 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l e x p o r t r e v e n u e .

The f i r s t c o n g r e s s o f t h e MPLA was h e l d i n December 1977. On t h a t o c c a s i o n , t h e MPLA was t r a n s f o r m e d i n t o a v a n g u a r d W o r k e r ' s P a r t y ( M P L A - P a r t i d o do T r a b a l h o ) , and i t was d e c l a r e d t o b e an i n s t r u m e n t w i t h t h e h e l p o f w h i c h t h e w o r k i n g c l a s s e s w o u l d b e a b l e t o b u i l d a s o c i a l i s t s o c i e t y . I t s p h i l o s o p h y i s M a r x i s m - L e n i n i s m . I t was r e c o g n i s e d t h a t t h e t r a n s i t i o n t o s o c i a l i s m i s a l o n g h i s t o r i c a l p r o c e s s , and t h a t t h e p r e s e n t phase i s one o f n a t i o n a l r e c o n s t r u c t i o n , t h e b u i l d i n g o f a P e o p l e ' s Democracy and l a y i n g t h e s o c i a l , m a t e r i a l and t e c h n i c a l b a s i s f o r s o c j a l i s m .

The m o n e t i z e d and o r g a n i s e d p a r t s o f t h e economy a r e c e n t r a l l y p l a n n e d and d i r e c t e d . The o v e r a l l g u i d e l i n e s and d i r e c t i v e s f o r p l a n n i n g t h e economy a r e i s s u e d b y t h e Party, w h i c h a l s o has t h e f i n a l say i n t h e p l a n s t h a t a r e approved f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The M i n i s t r y o f P l a n n i n g i s i n charge o f t h e t e c h n i c a l work o f f o r m u l a t i n g t h e y e a r l y p l a n s and t h e medium and l o n g t e r m p l a n s . Each o p e r a t i o n a l ( i .e . f u n c t i o n a l ) m i n i s t r y , such as a g r i c u l t u r e , i n d u s t r y , e t c . , has a p l a n n i n g o f f i c e ( G a b i n e t e do P l a n o ) , w h i c h i s g i v e n t h e t a s k o f d r a f t i n g t h e d e t a i l s o f t h e s e c t o r i a l p l a n s . These d r a f t s e c t o r p l a n s a r e s c r u t i n i s e d and amended f i r s t by t h e M i n i s t r y o f P l a n n i n g and f i n a l l y b y t h e P a r t y .

A t i t s f i r s t e x t r a o r d i n a r y congress h e l d i n December 1980, t h e P a r t y pub1 i shed d e t a i l e d guide1 in e s f o r , and p h y s i c a l t a r g e t s t o be a c h i e v e d i n , v a r i o u s socio- economic s e c t o r s d u r i n g t h e f i v e y e a r p e r i o d o f 1981-85. However, t h e development p l a n f o r 1982 and t h e medium t e r m development p l a n have n o t y e t been p u b l i s h e d , a l t h o u g h an Emergency P l a n was produced a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1983.

The p r i m a r y s o u r c e o f revenue f o r t h e S t a t e i s f r o m t h e s a l e o f c r u d e p e t r o l e u m . I n 1979, a b o u t 72 p e r c e n t o f t h e e x p o r t income came f r o m t h e e x p o r t o f c r u d e o i l and r e f i n e d p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . C o f f e e came n e x t a t 16 p e r c e n t and diamonds t h i r d a t 10 p e r c e n t . Cement, s i s a l and f i s h m e a l made up t h e r e m a i n i n g 2 p e r c e n t . The t o t a l v a l u e o f e x p o r t s i n 1979 was US $1,950 m i l l io n , and t h e t o t a l v a l u e o f i m p o r t s US $1,350 m i l l i o n . The main i m p o r t s were machinery ( 3 9 % ) , f o o d - s t u f f s (26%), raw m a t e r i a l s ( 1 1 % ) and t e x t i l e s and f o o t w e a r ( 8 % ) .

Tables 1.1 and 1 . 2 show t h e s t r u c t u r e and d i r e c t i o n o f f o r e i g n t r a d e f o r t h e y e a r s 1978 and 79 ( t h e l a t e s t y e a r f o r w h i c h s t a t i s t i c s have been p u b l i s h e d ) .

By 1981, o i l was a c c o u n t i n g f o r 78 p e r c e n t o f e x p o r t s . Both o u t p u t and p r i c e s f e l l i n 1981. I t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e v a l u e o f o i l e x p o r t s i n 1981 was US $1400 m i l l i o n , s u b s t a n t i a l l y below t h e e x p e c t e d US $1700 m i l l io n .

The S t a t e e s t a b l i s h e d i t s own o i l company SONANGOL i n 1976 (Sociedade Angol ana de Combustives )

.

^Under t h e Petroleum Law e n a c t e d b y t h e government i n F e b r u a r y 1978, f o r e i g n o i l companies have e n t e r e d i n t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n v e n t u r e s w i t h SONANGOL, o r r e c e i v e d concessions on p r o d u c t i o n s h a r i n g terms. Three f o r e i g n o i l companies a r e i n p r o d u c t i o n as o f 1982: G u l f ( t h e l a r g e s t p r o d u c e r ) , P e t r a n g o l and Texas. Numerous o t h e r f o r e i g n companies have been g i v e n p r o s p e c t i n g and e x p l o r a t i o n concessions.

Diamonds a r e mined i n t h e n o r t h - e a s t e r n p r o v i n c e o f Luanda by t h e Companhia de Diamantes de Angola (DIAMANG). The Angolan S t a t e owns 77.2 p e r c e n t o f t h e shares, and most o f t h e r e s t a r e h e l d b y t h e B e l g i a n S o c i g t g Ggnerale. The S t a t e share i s h e l d by a p a r a s t a t a l , t h e Empresa Nacional de Diamantes de Angola (ENDIAMA). A f o r e i g n f i r m c a l l e d " M i n i n g and T e c h n i c a l S e r v i c e s "

a d v i s e s DIAMANG on t h e t e c h n i c a l management o f t h e mines.

A n g o l a ' s r o u g h diamonds a r e s o l d t h r o u g h t h e Diamond C o r p o r a t i o n

TABLE 1.

I

M a i n Commgdi t i e s Traded

Oi 'I

16,507

y - p r o d u c t s 1,103

2 6,732

i d s 2,997

t

9 0

82

?a1 6 0

F o o d s t u f f s 5,383 T e x t i l e s & Footwear 1,447 M a c h i n e r y 3,940

Consumer goods 2,209

Cemi c a l s 563

Raw m a t e r i a l s 4,099

Tool s 478

M e d i c a l goods 1,040

TABLE 1 . 2

D i r e c t i o n o f Trade

t o t a l )

Ls f r o m : 1979 1980 E x p o r t s t o : 1979 1980

-n Europe 56.4 5 1 . 6 N o r t h America 2 1 . 4 31.8

~n (CMEA) 1 5 . 7 1 6 . 9 L a t i n America 3 5 . 1 28.9

Ameri c a 9.8 1 0 . 8 Western Europe 28.5 22.2

America 5 . 6 7. 2. Comecon (CMEA) 6 . 9 6 . 3

1 3 . 0 2 . 2 A f r i c a 3 . 4

4.1

9 . 5 1 1 . 4 O t h e r s 4 . 7 6 . 7

i n London. U n t i l 1975- 76, A n g o l a was t h e f o u r t h l a r g e s t p r o d u c e r o f diamonds i n t h e w o r l d . I n 1974 i t s p r o d u c t i o n was 2 . 4 m i l l i o n c a r a t s . I t had d e c l i n e d s h a r p l y f r o m t h a t l e v e l t o a b o u t 1 . 5 m i l l i o n c a r a t s i n 1980.

A n g o l a i s v e r y we1 l - e n d o w e d w i t h n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . I -t has d e p o s i t s and o c c u r e n c e s o f 34 m i n e r a l s , o f w h i c h 1 4 a r e i n t h e s t r a t e g i c c a t e g o r y . To g i v e some e x a m p l e s : i r o n o r e , c o a l , p h o s p h a t e s , u r a n i u m , ti ta n i u m , c o p p e r , go1 d, manganese, b a u x i t e , m i c a , n i c k e l , c o b a l t , chrome, vanadium, b e r y l 1 ium, w o l f r a m , t i n , l e a d , l i m e s t o n e , a s p h a l t r o c k , r a r e e a r t h and r a d i o a c t i v e e l e m e n t s . I t s n a t u r a l f o r e s t s c o v e r 6 1 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s ( i . e . a b o u t h a l f t h e l a n d a r e a ) , and i t s medium and h i g h p o t e n t i a l a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d c o m p r i s e 5 4 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s . I t s h y d r o - e l e c t r i c and i r r i g a t i o n p o t e n t i a l i s immense.

S i n c e i n d e p e n d e n c e A n g o l a has made g r e a t s t r i d e s i n p r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n . I n 1973, t h e r e w e r e a b o u t 340,000 A n g o l a n c h i l d r e n i n p r i m a r y s c h o o l s . By 1980, t h e i r number had r i s e n t o a b o u t 2,400,000 i n t h e f i r s t f o u r c l a s s e s o f p r i m a r y s c h o o l i n g . I n t h e a d u l t l i t e r a c y campaign, a b o u t 700,000 have been t a u g h t r e a d i n g and w r i t i n g .

H e a l t h c a r e i s f r e e . R e n t s on accommodation a r e c o n t r o l l e d and a r e v e r y l o w . S i m i l a r l y , t h e p r i c e s o f e s s e n t i a l f o o d s , consumer goods and c o n v e n t i o n a l f u e l s f o r h o u s e h o l d u s e a r e c o n t r o l l e d a n d k e p t l o w , so t h a t t h e y a r e w i t h i n r e a c h o f t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n .

ESTIMATING THE GROWTH OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION

The e n e r g y consumed c a n be d i v i d e d i n t o two b r o a d g r o u p s : c o n s u m p t i o n b y h o u s e h o l d s and b y t h e f o u r , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s e c t o r s o f a g r i c u l t u r e , i n d u s t r y , s e r v i c e s and t r a n s p o r t . I n t h e n e x t two s e c t i o n s , we p r o v i d e t h e breakdown o f f i g u r e s f o r t h e v a r i o u s f o r m s o f e n e r g y consumed b y t h e s e t w o b r o a d g r o u p s , f o r t h e y e a r 1980, w h i c h i s t h e b a s e y e a r f o r t h i s s t u d y . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , however, we w o u l d l i k e t o g i v e e s t i m a t e s o f e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s t o t h e y e a r 1990, so t h a t one has an i d e a o f w h a t t o p l a n f o r .

I n d i s c u s s i n g e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t , one i s d e a l i n g w i t h s e v e r a l c o n c e p t s : " a c t u a l c o n s u m p t i o n " i n a g i v e n y e a r ; " a c t u a l demand" w h i c h may be more t h a n , o r l e s s t h a n , t h e a v a i l a b l e s u p p l y ; " p o t e n t i a l demand" a t a f u t u r e d a t e ; and t h e " need" f o r e n e r g y . The f i r s t o f t h e s e c o n c e p t s " a c t u a l c o n s u m p t i o n " i s s e l f - e v i d e n t . The second one, " a c t u a l demand", i s t h e demand c r e a t e d b y t h e a c t u a l p u r c h a s i n g power o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s and t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s e c t o r s . " P o t e n t i a l demand" i s t h e demand t h a t i s c r e a t e d b y t h e p u r c h a s i n g power a t a f u t u r e d a t e . The l a s t c o n c e p t " need" i s much w i d e r t h a n "demand" and " c o n s u m p t i o n " . I t r e f e r s t o t h e amount r e q u i r e d b y t h e h o u s e h o l d s t o meet e s s e n t i a l needs and b y t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s e c t o r s t o f u l f i l l

e s s e n t i a l s o c i a l t a r g e t s . "Need" t h u s i n c l u d e s "demand" and

"consumption", b u t i s i n general b i g g e r t h a n b o t h i n an underdeveloped economy where t h e mass o f t h e popul a t i o n s t i l l have o n l y a s u b s i s t e n c e l e v e l i n t h e i r m a t e r i a l s t a n d a r d s o f l i v i n g .

I n o r d e r t o compute "demand" and "need" d e f i n e d as above, one has t o have a g r e a t deal o f d e t a i l e d knowledge about t h e i n d i v i d u a l and s o c i a1 consumptions t h a t c o n s t i t u t e an e s s e n t i a l minimum f o r t h e people, about t h e e n e r g y c o n t e n t o f m a t e r i a l s t h a t go i n t o p r o d u c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n , and t h e p u r c h a s i n g power o f v a r i o u s s o c i a l c l a s s e s and socio- economic s e c t o r s . Such d e t a i l e d knowledge o f t h e p o l i t i c a l economy i s beyond t h e scope o f t h i s s t u d y . So we have t o r e s t c o n t e n t w i t h o n l y two c o n c e p t s :

" a c t u a l consumption" and " consumption a t a f u t u r e d a t e " . I n c o n f o r m i t y w i t h t h e usual i m p r e c i s e usage, we w i l l h e n c e f o r t h g i v e " t h e consumption a t a f u t u r e d a t e " t h e l a b e l " p o t e n t i a l demand". I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o bear i n mind t h a t " p o t e n t i a l demand"

as used here, and i n most o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e , i s n o t c a l c u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f p u r c h a s i n g power, b u t as a p r o j e c t i o n i n t o t h e f u t u r e o f a c t u a l consumption i n any g i v e n y e a r .

No o f f i c i a l f i g u r e s a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r p l a n n e d o r p r o j e c t e d r a t e s o f g r o w t h i n energy consumption f o r t h e economy as a whole, o r f o r d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s o f t h e economy. S i m i l a r l y , f o r t h e r a t e s o f g r o w t h i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s , i n d u s t r i a l goods and e s s e n t i a l s e r v i c e s . I n December 1980, t h e MPLA-Workers' P a r t y , he1 d i t s f i r s t e x t r a o r d i n a r y congress. A t t h a t congress, i t pub1 is h e d d e t a i l e d g u i d e l i n e s f o r s o c i a l and economic development d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1981-1985 ( O r i e n t a c o e s Fundamentais p a r a o Desenvolvimento Economico-Soci a1 de Republ i c a P o p u l a r de Angola, P e r i o d o de 1981- 1985). These g u i d e l i n e s c o n t a i n d e t a i l e d p h y s i c a l t a r g e t s f o r many i n d u s t r i a1 and a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s , b u t n o t f o r d i f f e r e n t f u e l s . B u t f r o m t h e s e p h y s i c a l t a r g e t s f o r v a r i o u s i n d i v i d u a l p r o d u c t s t o be a c h i e v e d between 1981 and 1985, i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o e x t r a c t growth r a t e s f o r energy, o r f o r t h e aggregate p r o d u c t i v e s e c t o r s l i ke i n d u s t r y , a g r i c u l t u r e , e t c .

We assume t h a t t h e r a t e s o f growth o f energy consumption by urban and r u r a l households a r e t h e same as t h e r a t e s o f g r o w t h o f urban and r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n , r e s p e c t i v e 1 y . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e estimat,es o f t h e N a t i o n a l D i r e c t o r a t e o f P h y s i c a l P1 anning, urban p o p u l a t i o n i s now g r o w i n g by about 5 p e r c e n t p e r annum and r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n b y 2 p e r c e n t p e r annum. These then, a r e t h e r a t e s o f growth we use f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e p o t e n t i a l demand f o r energy by urban households and r u r a l households i n 1990, based on t h e a c t u a l consumption f i g u r e s i n 1980.

A t t h e f i r s t congress o f MPLA h e l d i n December 1977, t h e p a r t y a f f i r m e d t h a t t h e aim was t o reach, i n t h e s h o r t e s t p o s s i b l e time, t h e 1973 p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s i n t h e most d e c i s i v e and i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r s f o r t h e l i f e o f t h e p e o p l e . T h i s t a s k has proved more d i f f i c u l t t h a n was a n t i c i p a t e d , p r i m a r i l y because o f t h e d i s r u p t i o n s caused b y t h e c o n t i n u e d a g r e s s i o n a g a i n s t , and i r l v a s i o n o f , Angola by South A f r i c a .

W i t h t h e s o l e e x c e p t i o n o f p e t r o l e u m e x p l o i t a t i o n , w h i c h had a l r e a d y r e c o v e r e d t o 1973 l e v e l s b y 1977, t h e r e s t o f t h e p r o d u c t i v e s e c t o r s a r e s t i l l f a r b e h i n d t h a t t a r g e t as o f 1982.

I n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n on average, i n 1981, was o n l y o n e - t h i r d o f t h e 1973 f i g u r e , e x p r e s s e d i n p h y s i c a l u n i t s . Many i m p o r t a n t b r a n c h e s i n t h e s e c t o r s o f f o o d p r o c e s s i n g and l i g h t i n d u s t r y showed n e g a t i v e g r o w t h r a t e s i n 1981, o f t h e o r d e r o f - 1 0 t o - 40 p e r c e n t p e r annum, i . e . p r o d u c t i o n i n 1 9 8 1 was s u b s t a n t i a l l y l o w e r t h a n t h a t i n 1980. One c a n n o t go b y t h e p l a n n e d t a r g e t s e i t h e r t o f i n d a " r e a l i s t i c " g r o w t h r a t e , because t h e t a r g e t s s e t b y t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n f o r 1981 w e r e i n f a c t l e s s t h a n t h e a c t u a l p r o d u c t i o n f i g u r e s f o r t h e y e a r b e f o r e , v i z . 1980, b y m a r g i n s r a n g i n g f r o m 4 t o 28 p e r c e n t , d e p e n d i n g upon t h e i n d u s t r i a l b r a n c h .

L e t u s now t u r n t o a g r i c u l t u r e . The p r i n c i p a l u s e r s o f c o n v e n t i o n a l commerci a1 f u e l S ( e l e c t r i c i t y , r e f i n e d p e t r o l e u m , e t c . ) i n a g r i c u l t u r e , a r e t h e l a r g e f a r m s , m o s t o f w h i c h a r e t o d a y owned and o p e r a t e d b y t h e s t a t e . They c o n c e n t r a t e on p r o d u c i n g c a s h c r o p s l i k e c o f f e e , c o t t o n , sugarcane, t o b a c c o and s i s a l , as we1 l as one o r two s t a p l e f o o d g r a i n s l i k e m a i z e and w h e a t . The m o s t i m p o r t a r ~ t c a s h c r o p o f a l l , c o f f e e , has been v e r y b a d l y h i t b y e v e n t s a f t e r 1976. A l m o s t a l l o f t h e l a r g e c o f f e e p l a n t a t i o n s w e r e abandoned b y t h e i r f o r m e r P o r t u g u e s e owners who l e f t t h e c o u n t r y . The wage w o r k e r s on t h e p l a n t a t i o n s were f r o m t h e c e n t r a l p l a t e a u o f Huambo and B i e , who u s e d t o m i g r a t e e v e r y y e a r f r o m t h e i r homes t o t h e c o f f e e p l a n t a t i o n s i n t h e n o r t h e r n p r o v i n c e s , when l a b o u r was i n demand d u r i n g t h e peak season, and r e t u r n home t o c u l t i v a t e t h e i r own l a n d s d u r i n g t h e o f f - s e a s o n f o r c o f f e e . The war c o n d i t i o n s have made i t e x t r e m e l y r i s k y f o r t h e s e w o r k e r s t o m i g r a t e back and f o r t h e v e r y y e a r as t h e y used t o . So t h e y have r e m a i n e d i n t h e i r c e n t r a l h i g h l a n d home a r e a s . T h i s d r a s t i c and sudden w i t h d r a w a l o f l a b o u r c o u l d n o t be compensated b y r e c r u i t i n g w o r k e r s f r o m among t h e p e a s a n t s o f t h e n o r t h e r n p r o v i n c e s , because t h e y p r e f e r t o work on t h e i r own f a r m s t o w o r k i n g o n c o f f e e p1 a n t a t i o n s . The cumul a t i v e e f f e c t i s t h a t i n 1 9 8 1 t h e c o f f e e p r o d u c t i o n was o n l y 10% o f t h e 1973 f i g u r e . T h i s s i t u a t i o n i s u n l i k e l y t o i m p r o v e i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . The o t h e r c a s h c r o p s i n w h i c h t h e l a r g e f a r m s s p e c i a l i z e such as c o t t o n , s u g a r c a n e and s i s a l a r e n o t d o i n g any b e t t e r . They, and s t a p l e f o o d g r a i n s l i k e maize, r i c e and wheat, a l l showed n e g a t i v e g r o w t h r a t e s i n 1 9 8 1 r a n g i n g f r o m - 2 0 t o - 60 p e r c e n t . (These r e f e r o n l y t o commercial p r o d u c t i o n . No d a t a i s a v a i l a b l e on t h e p r o d u c t i o n b y s u b s i s t e n c e p e a s a n t s , m o s t o f w h i c h does n o t come on t o t h e c o n t r o l l e d p r i c e m a r k e t ) . F u r t h e r , t h e t a r g e t s a c h i e v e d i n 1981 were o n l y a b o u t 25 p e r c e n t o f t h e p1 anned t a r g e t s f o r s t a p l e f o o d s .

Under t h e s e c i r c u n i s t a n c e s i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o e x t r a c t f i g u r e s f o r t h e r a t e s o f g r o w t h o f e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n f r o m t h e g r o w t h r a t e s i n t h e p r o d u c t i v e s e c t o r s o f t h e economy. We w i l l t a k e an i n d i r e c t , and l e s s s a t i s f a c t o r y , r o u t e t h r o u g h t h e r a t e

of g r o w t h o f t h e t o t a l GDP. I n

1973,

t h e t o t a l GDP was

55,900

m i l l i o n Kwanzas ( c a l c u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f

1

escudo =

1

Kwanza).

By

1980,

i t had n o t y e t r e c o v e r e d t o t h i s f i g u r e , b u t was o n l y

30,900

m i l l i o n Kwanzas a t

1973

p r i c e s . I n o r d e r t o r e a c h t h e

1973

f i g u r e s by t h e y e a r

1985,

o r by t h e y e a r

1990,

t h e

1980

GDP has t o grow a t a r e a l r a t e o f

12.6

p e r c e n t p e r annum, o r

6.1

p e r c e n t p e r annum, r e s p e c t i v e l y . A s u s t a i n e d r e a l growth r a t e o f

12.6

p e r c e n t i s h i g h l y u n r e a l i s t i c . So t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f r e a c h i n g t h e

1973

GDP f i g u r e by

1985

can be d i s c o u n t e d . That l e a v e s us w i t h t h e r a t e f o r

1990.

B u t Angola c l e a r l y wants t o r e a c h t h e

1973

f i g u r e s b e f o r e

1990.

So we p i c k a v a l u e f o r t h e r e a l r a t e o f g r o w t h o f t h e t o t a l GDP between

12.6

and

6.1

p e r c e n t , say a b o u t

10

p e r c e n t p e r annum, i n t h e b e l i e f t h a t Angola i s g o i n g t o f u l l y m o b i l i z e a l l p r o d u c t i v e f o r c e s i n t h e coming y e a r s . We assume t h a t t h e energy consumption i n t h e s e c t o r s o f i n d u s t r y , commercial a g r i c u l t u r e , s e r v i c e s , p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t and p r i v a t e m o t o r i n g w i l l grow a t t h e same r e a l r a t e as t h e t o t a l GDP, i . e .

10

p e r c e n t p e r annum, between

1980

and

1990.

We do n o t concern o u r s e l v e s w i t h s e m i - s u b s i s t e n c e and p u r e - s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e s , as t h e y h a r d l y use any c o n v e n t i o n a l commercial f u e l s , r e l y i n g a l m o s t e n t i r e l y ' on human and animal p h y s i c a l energy.

HOUSEHOLD

DEMAND

Table

1.3

p r o v i d e s a summary o f r u r a l and u r b a n household energy consumption and demand.

Urban Demand.

The p o p u l a t i o n o f Angola i n

1980

was e s t i m a t e d t o be about

7.15

m i l l i o n , g r o w i n g a t t h e r a t e o f a b o u t

2.4

p e r c e n t p e r annum. I n some p a r t s o f t h e c o u n t r y , t h e Second War o f L i b e r a t i o n caused severe d i s r u p t i o n s i n a g r i c u l t u r e , t r a n s p o r t and s o c i a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , as w e l l as c r e a t i n g a sense o f p h y s i c a l i n s e c u r i t y among t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n . T h i s l e d t o a g r e a t e r than usual r a t e o f i n f l u x o f p e o p l e f r o m t h e r u r a l t o t h e urban areas.

The i n c r e a s e was most d r a m a t i c i n t h e case o f t h e c a p i t a l c i t y Luanda, whose p o p u l a t i o n t r e b l e d f r o m

450,000

i n

1974

t o

1.2

m i l l i o n i n

1982.

A l a r g e p a r t o f those who came t o Luanda were r e f u g e e s and e x i l e s r e t u r n i n g f r o m Z a i r e . By

1980,

t h e urban areas were accommodating a b o u t

20

p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n .

Luanda i s t h e l a r g e s t c i t y , c o n t a i n i n g more t h a n

80

p e r c e n t o f t h e e n t i r e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n o f Angola. Huarnbo comes n e x t , f a r b e h i n d i n s i z e , f o l l o w e d by L o b i t o , Benguela and Lubango. The p a t t e r n o f u r b a n household demand f o r energy would be w e l l covered b y l o o k i n g a t t h e s i t u a t i o n a t t h e two ends o f t h i s s i z e spectrum, i . e . Luanda and Lubango, b o t h o f w h i c h were s t u d i e d a t f i r s t hand.

U c 5 E W

0

u

t 5 t

.- 0 C-' a

E m 3 m

.

^U c 0

3

W 2

--l L

m a~

4: S

k- W

U

F-

0 r aJ

V) 3 I 0

4- 0 h L m E m E,

n h C

-0 C

S -J

m a

E CL

aJ 3 n CL

7

5 .v

*

S "l

aJu

C-'?

0 0 a = +

aJ z

0 m <

m 3 m m o m

4 I 3

S 0 .c-

-A Q 5

E m

3 3

V) CL C 0 U m

U

7 7

m 0 3 L

*

^a

U V)

4 3

O Z

0 I 5

m m

2 2%

V) C-'

.F

S 3

4- 0 h

m E L L W

0 c

L W

m N

5 5

c c % .

o o m aJ

W -

V ) l n L n

.- ^.r 3 .r

m w m m

m 5 .r .r

nn4-

-

_D

w w o aJ r r m KZ C-' e m

S _S O O L _a

.

_m

C > aJ

C C 0 c

The v o l u n t a r y exodus w i t h i n a space o f one y e a r (1975- 76) o f 400,000 Portuguese had t h e s i d e e f f e c t t h a t t h e i r e l e c t r i f i e d urban f l a t s and houses became a v a i l a b l e f o r o c c u p a t i o n by those Angolans who u n t i l t h e n had l i v e d i n t h e l e s s " w e l l - t o - d o " p a r t s o f t h e towns, i n poor q u a l i t y housing w i t h o u t e l e c t r i c i t y . As a r e s u l t , a much g r e a t e r number o f urban Angolans g o t access t o e l e c t r i c i t y f o r l i g h t i n g purposes t h a n was t h e case j u s t b e f o r e independence. Thus, a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t o f t h e pre- independence demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y by urban households c o n t i n u e d t o be m a i n t a i ned a f t e r 1976.

The s e v e r a l hundreds o f thousands o f p e o p l e who moved i n t o Luanda between 1976 and 1982 have b u i l t t h e i r own accommodation.

These modest one o r two room d w e l l i n g s , m o s t l y made o f mud w a l l s and c o r r u g a t e d i r o n r o o f s ( b u t sometimes a l s o made o f cement b l o c k s )

,

s t r e t c h s e v e r a l k i l o m e t r e s a1 l around Luanda. These areas a r e c a l l e d "musseques". The a u t h o r i t i e s have l a i d on e l e c t r i c i t y and w a t e r c o n n e c t i o n s t o some, b u t n o t y e t t o a l l , o f these musseques. Thus a p a r t o f t h e w o r k i n g c l a s s a l s o has access t o e l e c t r i c i t y f o r l i g h t i n g purposes. The i n t e n t i o n o f t h e a u t h o r i t i e s i s t o p r o v i d e e l e c t r i c i t y t o e v e r y d w e l l i n g i n Luanda as soon as p o s s i b l e . B u t a t p r e s e n t , o n l y a b o u t 35 p e r c e n t o f t h e households i n Luanda have e l e c t r i c i t y .

Lubango i s i n t h e s o u t h e r n h i g h l a n d s - a t 2000 m e t r e s above sea l e v e l , i t i s t h e h i g h e s t l y i n g town i n Angola. There, as i n o t h e r towns, Angolans moved i n t o t h e e l e c t r i f i e d f l a t s and v i l l a s abandoned b y t h e Portuguese. However, u n l i k e Luanda, no b i g musseques have sprung up. The p a t t e r n o f e l e c t r i c i t y consumption i s r o u g h l y t h e same as i t was i n 1974, w h i c h encompasses some 40 p e r c e n t o f t h e households.

T a k i n g t h e average o v e r a l l t h e towns, one f i n d s t h a t i n 1980, 42 p e r c e n t o f t h e urban households were consuming e l e c t r i c i t y a t t h e r a t e o f 1200 Kwh p e r y e a r p e r household. A l l o f t h i s was f o r l i g h t i n g . The t o t a l a c t u a l consumption o f e l e c t r i c i t y i n 1980 by urban households was 120 GWH.

The use o f e l e c t r i c i t y f o r c o o k i n g i s a t p r e s e n t n e g l i g i b l e , p a r t l y because e l e c t r i c s t o v e s a r e v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o come by, and those t h a t have them c o n s t i t u t e a t i n y m i n o r i t y . The m i d d l e c l a s s , who comprise 40 p e r c e n t o f t h e urban p o p u l a t i o n , use LPG (Butane g a s ) as t h e c o o k i n g f u e l . The r e m a i n i n g 60 p e r c e n t , making up t h e w o r k i n g c l a s s , use c h a r c o a l .

The q u e s t i o n a r i s e s as t o whether e l e c t r i c i t y w i l l r e p l a c e LPG as a c o o k i n g f u e l , a t l e a s t i n p a r t , o r whether LPG w i l l n o t o n l y r e t a i n i t s p r e s e n t p o s i t i o n , b u t w i l l be used by an i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e urban p o p u l a t i o n . Angola has good p o t e n t i a l t o g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e i t s p r e s e n t domestic p r o d u c t i o n o f LPG as a b y p r o d u c t o f r e f i n i n g crude p e t r o l e u m . T h i s p o t e n t i a l i s v e r y l i k e l y t o be r e a l i z e d . More LPG a t c o m p e t i t i v e r e l a t i v e p r i c e s w i l l be a v a i l a b l e t o t h e urban p o p u l a t i o n . The s t o v e s t h a t can use LPG a r e w e l l - t r i e d and a r e a v a i l a b l e on t h e m a r k e t t h r o u g h an a1 r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d i m p o r t r o u t i n e . I f e l e c t r i c i t y has

t o r e p l a c e LPG, e l e c t r i c s t o v e s w i l l have t o b e i m p o r t e d i n s u b s t a n t i a l numbers, and t h e y w i l l . b e q u i t e e x p e n s i v e t o b u y f r o m t h e a v e r a g e m i d d l e c l a s s c o n s u m e r ' s p o i n t o f v i e w . T h e r e f o r e , a t l e a s t i n t h e medium term, i t i s q u i t e u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e r e w i l l be s u b s t a n t i a1 demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y f o r c o o k i n g .

On t h e o t h e r hand, A n g o l a has g o t a huge p o t e n t i a l f o r h y d r o - e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n . So, a t l e a s t i n t h e o r y , e l e c t r i c i t y c a n r e p 1 a c e LPG as a c o o k i n g f u e l f o r a p a r t o f t h e u r b a n m i d d l e c l a s s .

The LPG b e i n g p r o d u c e d i n A n g o l a ' s o n l y r e f i n e r y a t p r e s e n t i s b u t a n e gas. T h i s i s b o t t l e d i n c y l i n d e r s , t h e n e t w e i g h t o f t h e gas i n e a c h c y l i n d e r b e i n g 12 k g s .

As LPG i s h i g h l y p o p u l a r w i t h t h e u r b a n m i d d l e c l a s s , demand has o u t s t r i p p e d d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t i o n . Some iPG i s t h e r e f o r e b e i n g i m p o r t e d . M o s t o f t h e gas g e t s s o l d t o Luanda i n h a b i t a n t s , w i t h o n l y a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f i t r e a c h i n g o t h e r towns. 40 p e r c e n t o f t h e u r b a n h o u s e h o l d s have access t o LPG t o d a y . On an average, an u r b a n h o u s e h o l d consumes one c y l i n d e r c o n t a i n i n g 12 k g s o f gas p e r month, w h i c h adds u p t o 144 k g s p e r y e a r . The t o t a l u r b a n h o u s e h o l d c o n s u m p t i o n o f LPG i n 1980 was 13,730 m e t r i c t o n s * . B u t t h i s i s much t o o s t a t i c an a s s u m p t i o n t o make. F o r one t h i n g , as w i t h e l e c t r i c i t y s o w i t h LPG, t h e demand ( i n t h e sense o f p u r c h a s i n g power a t c u r r e n t r e l a t i v e p r i c e s and i n c o m e s ) i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e s u p p l y - so a f a i r l y s i z e a b l e chunk o f t h e demand r e m a i n s u n f u l f i l l e d t o d a y . I f r e l a t i v e p r i c e s c o n t i n u e t o b e w h a t t h e y a r e now, t h i s chunk w i l l i n c r e a s e i n s i z e b y 1990, w i t h r i s i n g r e a l incomes, l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s and e x p e c t a t i o n s o f t h e w o r k i n g c l a s s .

The C o o k i n g f u e l f o r t h a t 6 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h has n o a c c e s s t o e l e c t r i c i t y and LPG i s predominant1.y k e r o s e n e f o r l i g h t i n g and c h a r c o a l f o r c o o k i n g . A t 6 0 l i t r e s o f k e r o s e n e and 1080 k g s o f c h a r c o a l , p e r h o u s e h o l d p e r y e a r , t h e 1980 demand b y t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n was 8560 c u b i c m e t r e s o f k e r o s e n e and 154,400 t o n s o f c h a r c o a l .

C h a r c o a l i s g e t t i n g s c a r c e r , and i t s p r i c e i s r i s i n g s h a r p l y . A 15 k g s b a g w h i c h c o s t 280 Kwanzas i n 1 9 8 1 i n Lubango, now c o s t s 400 Kwanzas. I n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h c h a r c o a l , k e r o s e n e i s a f a r c h e a p e r f u e l , and much more e a s i l y a v a i l a b l e a t p r e s e n t . I t c o s t s o n l y 5 Kwanzas a l i t r e . It i s , t h e r e f o r e , q u i t e s u r p r i s i n g t o d i s c o v e r t h a t i t i s n o t b e i n g w i d e l y u s e d f o r c o o k i n g , t h e way i t i s f o r l i g h t i n g . A p p a r e n t l y , more k e r o s e n e was u s e d p r i o r t o 1975 t h a n now f o r c o o k i n g . The answer t o t h i s p u z z l e l i e s i n t h e f a c t t h a t a f t e r 1976 l o c a l p r o d u c t i o n o f k e r o s e n e c o o k i n g s t o v e s

* H e r e d f t e r , we w i l l u s e t h e a b b r e v i a t i o n " t o n s " , w h i c h s h o u l d b e t a k e n a l w a y s as m e a n i n g ' h e t t i c t o n s " .