Essays on Public Finance: Retirement Behavior and Disaster Relief

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(1)ESSAYS ON PUBLIC FINANCE: RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR AND DISASTER RELIEF by Thomas Eisensee. INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES Stockholm University Monograph Series No. 54 2005.

(2) THE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES University of Stockholm is an institute for independent scholarly research in the field of international economic relations.. DIRECTOR: Torsten Persson, Professor of Economics DEPUTY DIRECTOR: Mats Persson, Professor of Economics BOARD OF GOVERNORS: Kåre Bremer, Professor, President, Stockholm University, Chairman Ulf Jakobsson, Director of the Research Institute of Industrial Economics Leif Lindfors, University Director Sven-Olof Lodin, Professor Karl O. Moene, Professor Lars-Göran Nilsson, Professor Mats Persson, Professor Torsten Persson, Professor Michael Sohlman, Executive Director of the Nobel Foundation Eskil Wadensjö, Professor. RESEARCH STAFF AND VISITING FELLOWS 2004/2005:. Professors Lars Calmfors Harry Flam John Hassler Henrik Horn Assar Lindbeck Mats Persson Torsten Persson Peter Svedberg Fabrizio Zilibotti. Visiting Professors Per Krusell Kjetil Storesletten. Research Fellows Nicola Gennaioli Ethan Kaplan Jesper Lindé (visiting) Dirk Niepelt David Strömberg Jakob Svensson. Graduate Students Martin Bech Holte Martina Björkman Alessandra Bonfiglioli Thomas Eisensee Giovanni Favara Daria Finocchiario Erika Färnstrand Mathias Herzing Anna Larsson Martin Ljunge. MAIL ADDRESS: STREET ADDRESS:. Natalie Pienaar José Mauricio Prado, Jr. Virginia Queijo Zheng (Michael) Song Ulrika Stavlöt Mirco Tonin Gisela Waisman. Visiting Fellows Gino Gancia University Pompeu Fabra Martín Gonzalez-Eiras Universidad de San Andrés Jean Imbs University of Lausanne and London Business School Paul Klein University of Western Ontario Jo Thori Lind University of Oslo Egil Matsen Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim Andrea Moro University of Minnesota Anders Olofsgård Georgetown University Gérard Roland University of California, Berkeley Betsey Stevenson University of Pennsylvania Lars E.O. Svensson Princeton University. S-106 91 STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN Universitetsvägen 10 A, 8th floor. Davide Ticchi Università degli Studi di Urbino "Carlo Bo" Harald Uhlig Humboldt University Justin Wolfers University of Pennsylvania Joseph Zeira Hebrew University Jerusalem.

(3) ESSAYS ON PUBLIC FINANCE: RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR AND DISASTER RELIEF. by Thomas Eisensee. INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES Stockholm University January 2006.

(4) © Copyright Thomas Eisensee, 2006. All rights reserved.. Institute for International Economic Studies Stockholm University. ISBN 91-7155-197-2. Printed by Akademitryck AB Edsbruk, Sweden 2006.

(5) Doctoral Dissertation Department of Economics Stockholm University. ABSTRACT This thesis consists of three self-contained essays. The …rst essay is an empirical analysis of the relationship between news coverage of disasters and the provision of disaster relief. The two last essays deal with the relationship between …scal policy and the retirement decision. News Droughts, News Floods and U.S. Disaster Relief studies the mass media’s in‡uence on the U.S. government response to approximately 5,000 natural disasters in developing countries in 1968-2002. These disasters took around 63,000 lives and a¤ected 125 million people per year. Given the huge losses involved, it is essential that disaster relief is provided to those most in need. We show that U.S. disaster relief depends on the occurrence of other newsworthy events at the time of the disaster, such as the Olympic Games or the O.J. Simpson Trial, which are obviously unrelated to need. We argue that the only plausible explanation for this is that relief decisions are driven by news coverage of disasters, and that this news coverage might be crowded out by other newsworthy material. Fiscal Policy and Retirement in the Twentieth Century proposes a model that explains the trend in labor supply among older workers through changes in …scal policy, including social security. The model emphasizes the general equilibrium e¤ects of …scal policy on retirement behavior. In particular, the radical shift in …scal policy at the beginning of the century raised the returns to savings, which induced workers to retire earlier. The model predicts a large change in the retirement age upon the introduction of social security, while subsequent increases in replacement rates are shown to have a small impact on retirement. Speci…cally, the retirement elasticity is found to be a decreasing and convex function of the replacement rate. The essay re-introduces social security as a major determinant of retirement behavior in the second half of the twentieth century, while simultaneously o¤ering an explanation to the two main puzzles in the literature: (i) the small contemporary retirement elasticities and (ii) the drop in the retirement age prior to the introduction of social security. Sustainable Fiscal Policy and the Retirement Decision concerns the sustainability of …scal policy in aging economies and the retirement decision. The essay develops an applied general equilibrium overlapping generation model calibrated to the U.S. iii.

(6) economy, where retirement behavior is endogenous and current …scal policy is a response to future demographic developments. Three distinguishing sustainable policies are analyzed: (1) raising taxes only (2) reducing the replacement rate only and (3) raising the Full Retirement Age (FRA) only. All policies are found to have a substantial impact on retirement behavior. In particular, sustaining …scal policy will result in falling interest rates, inducing a general delay in retirement. This general equilibrium e¤ect on retirement behavior can be substantially larger than the direct e¤ect of changing social security incentives. However, although the delay in retirement reduces the burden of an aging population, the required …scal adjustments are large. The reason is that U.S. social security is roughly actuarially fair, which implies that delayed retirement only has a small e¤ect on public co¤ers.. iv.

(7) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to all those who gave me the possibility to complete this thesis. I want to thank the Institute for giving me the opportunity to work here as a research assistant and later as a graduate student. My gratitude goes especially to my advisors, Fabrizio Zilibotti and Kjetil Storesletten: Thanks for sharing your knowledge, creative ideas and great enthusiasm. Not least, I am grateful for your support and patience. I am also indebted to my co-author David Strömberg whose dedication and e¤ectivity is highly contageous. It has been a great joy and inspiration to work with you. I would also like to thank the Wallis Institute at University of Rochester for their hospitality during my 6 months stay and Per Krusell for several insightful discussions. Also, thanks to the crowd of graduate students in Rochester who gave Gabriela and I a very hearty welcome. Warm thanks to all my teachers, collegues and friends who has made life at the Institute more enjoyable. A special thanks goes to Annika Andreasson, Conny Olovsson, Ulrika Stavlöt and Mathias Herzing for their support and inspiration. Editorial and administrative assistance from Christina Lönnblad and Annika Andreasson has been deeply appreciated. For …nancial support, I thank Tore Browaldh’s Foundation, Jan Wallander’s and Tom Hedelius’ Foundation and Finanspolitiska Forskningsinstitutet. My greatest gratitude belong to my wife, Gabriela, and daughter, Clara; your constant support, patience and encouragement has been invaluable in the completion of this thesis.. v.

(8) vi.

(9) TABLE OF CONTENTS. Chapter 1: Introduction. 1. Chapter 2: News Droughts, News Floods and U.S. Disaster Relief. 5. Chapter 3: Fiscal Policy and Retirement in the Twentieth Century 49 Chapter 4: Sustainable Fiscal Policy and the Retirement Decision. vii. 83.

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(114) .

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(118) /OG <9QK D9L=J L@= 0

(119) .

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(122) .

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(125) .

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(128) DL@GM?@ F=LOGJC F=OK AK OA<=DQ :=DA=N=< LG := 9F AEHGJL9FL <=L=JEAF9FL G> ?GN=JFE=FL HGDA;Q DALLD= ;GF;DMKAN= =NA<=F;= @9K :==F HJG<M;=< LG L@AK =Z=;L

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(130) 0F>GJLMF9L=DQ O= <G FGL CFGO O@9L OGMD< @9N= @9HH=F=< AF L@= ;GMFL=J>9;LM9D ;9K= A

(131) =

(132) A> L@=J= @9< :==F FG HM:DA;9LAGF

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(139) $F L@AK H9H=J O= OADD KLM<Q E9KK E=<A9VK AFTM=F;= GF L@= 0

(140) .

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(143) 2= KLM<Q 9HHJGPAE9L=DQ F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK AF <=N=DGHAF? ;GMFLJA=K :=LO==F 9F<

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(145) *F 9N=J9?= F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK G;;MJJ=< =9;@ Q=9J <MJAF? L@= H=JAG< L9CAF? 9JGMF< DAN=K 9F< 9Z=;LAF? EADDAGF H=GHD=

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(147) /@AK O9K >GMF< 9>L=J 9F9DQRAF? L@= ;GFL=FLK G> L@= =N=FAF? F=OK :JG9<;9KLK G> L@= 0

(148) .

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(151) 2= 9LL9;C L@AK HJG:D=E :Q MKAF? L@= 9N9AD9:ADALQ G> GL@=J F=OKOGJL@Q E9L=JA9D 9K 9F AFKLJME=FL >GJ O@=L@=J L@= <AK9KL=J O9K AF L@= F=OK

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(153) %

(154) .AEHKGF LJA9D

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(157) *F= AK KGD=DQ :9K=< GF L@= <9L=K G> L@= *DQEHA; "9E=K

(158) /@= *DQEHA;K HJG<M;= F=OKOGJL@Q E9L=JA9D <MJAF? KH=;AS; <9L=K

(159) /@= :MDC G> L@= F=OK KLGJA=K 9:GML L@= *DQEHA;K L@9L O= A<=FLA>Q 9J= 9AJ=< <MJAF? L@= ?9E=K

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(161) 2= OADD MK= L@= L=JE F=OKOGJL@Q LG E=9F L@= 9M<A=F;= 9HH=9D G> L@= F=OK 9K H=J;=AN=< :Q L@= E=<A9

(162).

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(165) 2@=F 9 D9J?= E=<A9 =N=FL L9C=K HD9;= L@= KLGJQ AK MKM9DDQ HD9;=< 9K GF= G> L@= SJKL F=OK KLGJA=K AF 9 :JG9<;9KL 9F< <=NGL=< 9 ?J=9L <=9D G> LAE=

(166) !GJ AFKL9F;= GF *;LG:=J 9 BMJQ >GMF< *

(167) %

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(170) /@= LGH L@J== F=OK K=?E=FLK ;GEHJAK=< 9F 9N=J9?= G> EAFML=K 9F< K=;GF<K X L@= @A?@=KL N9DM= G> L@9L Q=9J

(171) $F ;GEH9JAKGF. L@= 9N=J9?= 9EGMFL G> LAE= KH=FL GF L@= LGH L@J== F=OK K=?E=FLK AF O9K EAFML=K

(172) /@= .AEHKGF N=J<A;L =Z=;LAN=DQ ;JGO<=< GML GL@=J F=OK

(173) ) /.,9 ;GN=J=< L@AK KLGJQ O@AD= . 9DKG J=HGJL=< GF= GL@=J KLGJQ KLG;C E9JC=L J=HGJL 9F< AF;DM<=< GL@=J KLGJA=K

(174) .AF;= <AK9KL=J F=OK AK G>L=F :JG9<;9KL 9>L=J L@= <9Q L@= <AK9KL=J KLJM;C O= 9N=J9?= L@AK E=9KMJ= GN=J L@= <9QK >GDDGOAF? L@= <AK9KL=J KLJAC= <9L=

(175) 2= ;9DD L@AK N9JA9:D= .&73 02&3352&

(176) 2= 9J?M= L@9L O@=F L@=J= AK HD=FLQ G> GL@=J F=OKOGJL@Q E9L=JA9D 9N9AD9:D= L@=F F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK AF >GJ=A?F ;GMFLJA=K 9J= ;JGO<=< GML >JGE F=LOGJC F=OK :JG9<;9KLK 9F< ;GFK=IM=FLDQ 9J= D=KK DAC=DQ LG J=;=AN= 0

(177) .

(178) J=DA=>

(179) /@=J= AK FG H9JLA;MD9J J=9KGF LG :=DA=N= L@9L L@= K=N=JALQ G> F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK AF >GJ=A?F ;GMFLJA=K AK J=D9L=< LG L@= 9N9AD9:ADALQ G> GL@=J F=OK

(180) .LADD 0

(181) .

(182) E:9KK9<GJK X O@G 9J= LQHA;9DDQ J=KHGFKA:D= >GJ <AK9KL=J <=;D9J9LAGFK X 9J= D=KK DAC=DQ LG <=;D9J= <AK9KL=JK <MJAF? L@= *DQEHA;K 9F< <MJAF? LAE=K O@=F 0

(183) .

(184) .&73 02&3352& AK @A?@ K== !A?MJ=

(185)

(186) 2= OADD K@GO L@9L L@=K= ;GJJ=D9LAGFK J=E9AF 9>L=J 9;;GMFLAF? >GJ L@= FME:=J G> CADD=< 9F< 9Z=;L=<. 9K O=DD 9K SP=< =Z=;LK >GJ <AK9KL=J LQH= EGFL@ Q=9J 9F< ;GMFLJQ

(187) HGL=FLA9D HJG:D=E AK L@9L .&73 02&3352& E9Q := <AJ=;LDQ 9Z=;L=< :Q L@= HM: DA;9LAGF G> <AK9KL=J F=OK

(188) $> <AK9KL=J F=OK AK HD9;=< 9EGF? L@= LGH L@J== KLGJA=K L@AK OADD ?=F=J9L= 9 HGKALAN= ;GJJ=D9LAGF :=LO==F F=OK HJ=KKMJ= 9F< L@= K=N=JALQ G> L@= <AK9KL=J

(189) $> F=OK 9:GML L@= <AK9KL=J AK HD9;=< GMLKA<= L@= LGH L@J== AL EA?@L ;9MK= D=KK LAE= LG := <=NGL=< LG L@= LGH L@J== K=?E=FLK AF<M;AF? 9 F=?9LAN= ;GJJ=D9LAGF

(190) /@AK ;GF;=JF AK 9<<J=KK=< AF LOG O9QK

(191) !AJKL O= J=EGN= 9DD <9QK O@=F 9FQ <AK9KL=J KLGJQ O9K 9AJ=< >JGE L@= <9Q 9N=J9?=

(192) /@AK @9K 9 EAFAE9D AEH9;L GF L@= =KLA E9L=< ;G=Y;A=FLK

(193) )=PL O= AFL=FLAGF9DDQ :A9K .&73 02&3352& :Q 9<<AF? 9DD F=OK LAE= <=NGL=< LG <AK9KL=J KLGJA=K LG L@= LAE= <=NGL=< LG L@= LGH L@J== F=OK K=?E=FLK

(194) $F J=9DALQ L@= F=OK LAE= >J==< MH :Q FGL 9AJAF? L@= <AK9KL=J F=OK OGMD< H9JLA9DDQ := 9DDG;9L=< LG F=OK K=?E=FLK GMLKA<= L@= LGH L@J==

(195) . N=F L@AK =PLJ=E= AF<M;=< :A9K. /@AK AFKLJME=FL AK J=D9L=< LG L@9L MK=< AF JT= 9F< (;(ADD9F A

(196) =

(197) L@= O==CDQ 9N=J9?= H=J;=FL9?= G> LGL9D F=OK LAE= <=NGL=< LG L@= LOG D=9<AF? FGF =F=J?Q F=OK LGHA;K

(198).

(199) #! %" !$#" %" " ""#! . .14. Share disasters receiving relief .16 .18 .2. .22. . p<5. 5<p<10. (News Drought). 10<p<25. 25<p<50. 50<p<75. 75<p<90. News pressure, percentiles. 90<p<95. 95<p. (News flood). !A?MJ=

(200) .@9J= F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK J=;=ANAF? *! J=DA=> :Q <GE=KLA; 0. F=OK HJ=KKMJ=. @9K DALLD= AFTM=F;= GF GMJ =KLAE9L=< ;G=Y;A=FLK

(201) /@AK H9H=J AK ;DGK=DQ J=D9L=< LG J=;=FL OGJC KLM<QAF? @GO E9KK E=<A9 H=F=LJ9 LAGF 9Z=;LK ?GN=JFE=FL HGDA;Q

(202) .LJÊ:=J? SF<K L@9L 0

(203) .

(204) ;GMFLA=K OAL@ @A?@=J D=N=DK G> J9<AG GOF=JK@AH O=J= EGJ= KM;;=KK>MD AF 9LLJ9;LAF? )=O =9D KH=F< AF?

(205) .AEAD9JDQ =KD=Q 9F< MJ?=KK SF< L@9L ?GN=JFE=FL J=DA=> HJG?J9EK O=J= EGJ= J=KHGFKAN= LG <JGM?@LK 9F< TGG<K AF $F<A9F KL9L=K OAL@ 9 @A?@=J F=OKH9H=J ;AJ;MD9LAGF

(206) /@= IM=KLAGF O= 9KC AK AFKL=9< "AN=F E=<A9 H=F=LJ9LAGF @GO D9J?= AK L@= =Z=;L GF ?GN=JFE=FL HGDA;Q G> HM:DAK@AF? 9 F=OK KLGJQ /@AK IM=KLAGF @9K DGF? :==F KLM<A=< :Q HGDALA;9D K;A=FLAKLK

(207) !GJ 9F GN=JNA=O K== L@= ;@9HL=J /@= (=<A9 K +GDA;Q (9C=JK AF "J9:=J

(208) K E=FLAGF=< =9JDA=J. L@AK DAL=J9LMJ= @9K FGL :==F KM;;=KK>MD AF A<=FLA>QAF? L@= E=<A9VK HGDA;Q AFTM=F;=

(209) $L @9K @GO=N=J A<=FLAS=< 9 FME:=J G> =EHAJA;9D HAL>9DDK

(210) !GJ =P9EHD= GGC =L 9D

(211) KLM<Q L@= HGDA;Q =Z=;L G> E=<A9 =PHGKMJ= G> >J9M< 9F< 9:MK= AF 9 #GE= #=9DL@ 9J= HJG?J9E AF @A;9?G

(212) /@= J=K=9J;@=JK O=J= AF>GJE=< AF 9<N9F;= L@9L 9 F=OK KLGJQ OGMD< := :JG9<;9KL 9F< @9< L@= GHHGJLMFALQ G> AFL=JNA=OAF? H=GHD= HJ= 9F< HGKL HM:DA;9LAGF

(213) /@=Q >GMF< L@9L L@= HM:DA;9LAGF ;@9F?=< HGDALA;A9FKV 9F< L@= ?=F=J9D HM:DA;VK NA=OK 9F< O9K =N=FLM9DDQ >GDDGO=< :Q 9 ;@9F?= AF L@= D=?AKD9LAGF

(214) #GO=N=J AL LMJF=< GML L@9L L@= F=OK KLGJQ O9K AFALA9L=< :Q HGDALA;A9FK K==CAF? HGDA;Q ;@9F?= KG AL AK IM=KLAGF9:D= O@=L@=J L@= F=OK KLGJQ 9;LM9DDQ ;9MK=< L@= HGDA;Q ;@9F?=

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(216) $F L@= ;GFL=PL G> GMJ H9H=J HGDA;Q E9C=JK E9Q E9C= L@= HJ=KK 9O9J= G> <AK9KL=JK LG O@A;@ L@=Q O9FL LG K=F< J=DA=> LG ;J=9LAF? 9 KHMJAGMK ;GJJ=D9LAGF :=LO==F ;GN=J9?= 9F< KM:K=IM=FL J=DA=>

(217).

(218) #! %" !$#" %" " ""#! . . FGL@=J HJG:D=E AK L@9L =N=F H=J>=;LDQ ;GFLJGDDAF? >GJ L@= K=N=JALQ G> L@= <AK9KL=J. E=<A9 ;GN=J9?= OADD := ;GJJ=D9L=< OAL@ J=DA=> :=;9MK= :GL@ 9J= <JAN=F :Q L@= MFG: K=JN9:D= K9DA=F;= G> L@= <AK9KL=J LG L@= E=JA;9F HM:DA;

(219) /@AK AK FA;=DQ ADDMKLJ9L=< :Q JMJQ *DKGF 9F< 19F =DD=

(220) /@=AJ H9H=J AK N=JQ ;DGK=DQ J=D9L=< LG GMJK AF KLM<QAF? L@= =EHAJA;9D 9DDG;9LAGF G> 0

(221) .

(222) >GJ=A?F <AK9KL=J 9KKAKL9F;=

(223) /@=Q ;GF;DM<= L@9L >GJ=A?F HGDA;Q 9F< <GE=KLA; >9;LGJK 9J= L@= GN=JJA<AF? <=L=JEA F9FLK G> L@AK 9DDG;9LAGF

(224) *> H9JLA;MD9J AFL=J=KL OAL@ J=?9J< LG GMJ H9H=J L@=Q SF< <AK9KL=J J=DA=> LG := HGKALAN=DQ ;GJJ=D9L=< OAL@ L@= K9DA=F;= G> L@= <AK9KL=J E=9KMJ=< :Q L@= 9EGMFL G> E=<A9 ;GN=J9?=

(225) *MJ AFKLJME=FL9D N9JA9:D=K 9HHJG9;@ 9NGA<K :GL@ L@=K= HAL>9DDK KAF;= L@= 9N9AD9:ADALQ G> GL@=J F=OKOGJL@Q E9L=JA9D AK MFJ=D9L=< LG L@= K9DA=F;= G> <AK9KL=JK 9F< HGDALA;A9FKV HGDA;Q ?G9DK J=?9J<AF? <AK9KL=J J=DA=>

(226) 2@AD= E=<A9 ;GN=J9?= AK >GMF< LG 9Z=;L <AK9KL=J J=DA=> O= <G FGL MF;GN=J L@= =P9;L E=;@9FAKE L@JGM?@ O@A;@ G;;MJK

(227) $F ?=F=J9D L=JEK <AK9KL=J J=DA=> LQHA;9DDQ <=DAN=JK >9NGJ9:D= HM:DA;ALQ O@A;@ ;9F := =FBGQ=< :Q HGDA;Q E9C=JK HJGNA<AF? J=DA=> LG <AK9KL=JK ;GN=J=< AF L@= F=OK

(228) ML L@AK AK ;GFKAKL=FL OAL@ 9 FME:=J G> L@=GJA=K

(229) !AJKL NGL=JK E9Q =N9DM9L= HGDALA;A9FK :9K=< GF AKKM=K J=;=FLDQ ;GN=J=< :Q L@= E=<A9 (;GE:K 9F< .@9O

(230) /@MK A> 9 <AK9KL=J O9K J=;=FLDQ ;GN=J=< AF L@= E=<A9 L@AK E9Q =F@9F;= L@= K9DA=F;= G> L@= AKKM= 9L L@= :9DDGL :GP

(231) .=;GF< HGDALA;A9FK @9N= 9 KLJGF?=J AF;=FLAN= LG 9;L O@=F NGL=JK ;9F G:K=JN= L@=AJ 9;LAGFK L@JGM?@ L@= E=<A9. KAF;= G:K=JN9:D= 9;LAGFK @9N= 9 KLJGF?=J AFTM=F;= GF KM:K=IM=FL NGL=K .LJÊ:=J?.

(232) /@AJ< NGL=JK E9Q J=KHGF< LG F=OK KLGJA=K :Q <AJ=;LDQ LJQAF? LG AFTM=F;= L@=AJ J=HJ=K=FL9LAN=K <AJ=;LDQ +M:DA; ;LAGF

(233) $F 9DD ;9K=K AL AK 9KKME=< L@9L L@= ?GN=JFE=FL GY;A9D L9CAF? L@= J=DA=> <=;AKAGF ;9J=K 9:GML L@= HGDALA;A9FKV =D=;LGJ9D KMHHGJL

(234) /@= J=9KGF ;GMD< =AL@=J := L@9L L@= ?GN=JFE=FL GY;9D ;9J=K 9:GML L@= >MF<AF? G> L@= J=DA=> HJG?J9E K== )AKC9F=F 9F< L@AK AK AF;J=9KAF? AF ALK HGDALA;9D HGHMD9JALQ GJ L@9L L@= GY;A9DVK >MLMJ= ;9J==J <=H=F<K GF @GO KCADD>MDDQ K@= E9F9?=K L@= J=DA=> HJG?J9E AF L@= HGDALA;A9FKV AFL=J=KL K== D=KAF9 9F< /9:=DDAFA.

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(236) /@= H9H=J AK GJ?9FAR=< 9K >GDDGOK

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(239) .

(240) HGHMD9LAGF KMHHGJL 0

(241) .

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(256) /@= <9L9 HJGNA<=<. AF AK :9K=< GF GY;A9D S?MJ=K O@=F 9N9AD9:D=

(257) 2= 9F9DQR= 9 KM:K9EHD= G> L@AK <AK9KL=J <9L9

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(260) 9AJHD9F= ;J9K@=K

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(262) .AF;= >GJ L@= HMJHGK= G> L@AK KLM<Q AL AK AEHGJL9FL LG CFGO L@= <9L= G> L@= <AK9KL=J O= <JGH G:K=J N9LAGFK >GJ O@A;@ O= GFDQ @9N= AF>GJE9LAGF 9:GML L@= Q=9J G> L@= =N=FL

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(268) =

(269) J=IMAJAF? :9KA; KMJ NAN9D F==<K KM;@ 9K >GG< O9L=J K@=DL=J K9FAL9LAGF 9F< AEE=<A9L= E=<A;9D 9KKAKL9F;=

(270) - VK KGMJ;= J9FCAF? AK 9K >GDDGOK 0) 0. ?GN=JFE=FL DG;9D ?GN=JFE=FL $!- -=K=9J;@ =FLJ=K 'DGQ<K 9KM9DLQ 2==C -=AFKMJ9F;= +J=KK +JAN9L=

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(272).

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(274) *F 9N=J9?= F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK G;;MJJ=< =9;@ Q=9J L9CAF? 9JGMF< DAN=K 9F< 9Z=;LAF? EADDAGF H=GHD=

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(278) JGM?@LK LGGC EGKL ;9KM9DLA=K 9F< 9Z=;L=< EGKL H=GHD= H=J AF;A<=FL

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(281) /@AK AK H9JLDQ <JAN=F :Q AEHJGN=E=FLK AF <9L9 ;GDD=;LAGF HJG;=<MJ=K LGO9J<K L@= =F< G> L@= K9EHD= H=JAG< O@A;@ @9K AF;J=9K=< L@= 9N9AD9:ADALQ G> <9L9 GF D=KK K=N=J= <AK9KL=JK

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(286) .

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(288) H=J;=FL *

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(293) $L @9K :==F ?AN=F T=PA:D= 9ML@GJALQ O@A;@ H=JEALK AL LG J=KHGF< IMA;CDQ LG L@= F==<K G> <AK9KL=J NA;LAEK

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(295) .

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(298) .

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(301) .

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(303) .

(304) 9?=F;A=K AF L@= SK;9D Q=9J G>

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(306) *N=J L@= H=JAG< L@= *! J=KHGF<=< LG H=J;=FL G> L@= <AK9KL=JK AF L@= K9EHD= GJ GF 9N=J9?= F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK H=J Q=9J

(307) . .GE= <AK9KL=JK @9N= EAKKAF? N9DM=K >GJ +*,,&% 9F< ":&$4&%

(308) /@=J=>GJ= E=9F N9DM=K J=>=J LG L@= KM: K9EHD= O@=J= G:K=JN9LAGFK =PAKL

(309) 2= LJ=9L =FLJA=K AF +*,,&% 9F< ":&$4&% 9K EAKKAF? N9DM=K. 9>L=J ;GJJ=KHGF<=F;= OAL@ -

(310).

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(313) .

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(315) .

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(317) .

(318) (AKKAGF AK FGL DG;9L=< AF L@= ;GMFLJQ :Q L@= 9HHJGHJA9L= 0

(319) .

(320) KKAKL9FL .=;J=L9JQ

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(323) AK9KL=J J=DA=> AK AFL=F<=< LG 9<<J=KK *--&%*"4& DA>= L@J=9L=FAF? ;GF;=JFK 0. $

(324) /@= <AK9KL=J K@GMD< E==L L@J== ;JAL=JA9 AL AK G> 9 E9?FALM<= OAL@ O@A;@ L@= 9Z=;L=< ;GEEMFALQ ;9FFGL ;GH= J=;G?FAR=< J=HJ=K=FL9LAN=K G> L@= 9> >=;L=< HGHMD9LAGF <=KAJ= L@= 9KKAKL9F;= 9F< AL AK AF L@= 0

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(328) $F>=KL9LAGFK <JGM?@LK 9F< NGD;9FGK J=;=AN= L@= @A?@=KL J=KHGFK= J9L=K O@AD= ;GD< O9N=K 9F< D9F< KDA<=K J=;=AN= L@= DGO=KL

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(335) 9L9 GF F=OK ;GN=J9?= AK L9C=F >JGE L@= 19F<=J:ADL /=D=NAKAGF )=OK J;@AN= 1/)

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(337) .

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(342) =9JL@IM9C=

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(347).

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(350) !A?MJ=

(351) HDGLK L@= LAEAF? G> L@= SJKL F=OK KLGJQ GF 9 <AK9KL=J J=D9LAN= LG L@= <9L= G> L@= <AK9KL=J

(352) /@= SJKL F=OK KLGJQ AK LQHA;9DDQ 9AJ=< <MJAF? L@= SJKL <9QK >GDDGOAF? L@= <AK9KL=J

(353) /@= DAC=DA@GG< G> ;GN=JAF? L@= <AK9KL=J L@=F >9DDK J9HA<DQ MFLAD 9JGMF< <9QK 9>L=J L@= <AK9KL=J 9F< L@=F J=E9AFK J=D9LAN=DQ ;GFKL9FL

(354).

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(356) /@AK ;JGO<AF? GML AK HJG:9:DQ H9JLA;MD9JDQ KLJGF? >GJ L=D=NAKAGF F=OK :JG9<;9KLK L@9L 9J= MKM9DDQ G> 9 SP=< D=F?L@ @9D> 9F @GMJ >GJ . 9F< ) 9F< GF= @GMJ >GJ ))

(357) /@= ;@9DD=F?= AK LG ;GFKLJM;L E=9FAF?>MD 9F< GH=J9LAGF9D E=9KMJ=K G> L@= 9N9AD 9:ADALQ G> F=OKOGJL@Q E9L=JA9D

(358) #=J= O= AEHD=E=FL LOG KM;@ E=9KMJ=K

(359) /@= SJKL E=9KMJ= GFDQ <=H=F<K GF L@= <9L=K G> L@= *DQEHA; "9E=K

(360) $F GMJ K9EHD= H=JAG<. L@=J= 9J= *DQEHA; "9E=K J9F?AF? >JGE L@= KMEE=J *DQEHA;K AF (=PA;G ALQ LG L@= OAFL=J ?9E=K AF .9DL '9C= ALQ

(361) /@= *DQEHA;K 9J= O=DD ;GN=J=< :Q L@= )=LOGJC )=OK

(362) $F GMJ K9EHD= H=JAG< F=OK KLGJA=K @9N= *DQEHA; AF L@=AJ @=9<DAF=

(363) /@=K= KLGJA=K 9J= MKM9DDQ 9AJ=< 9JGMF< L@= <9L=K G> L@= *DQEHA;.

(364) #! %" !$#" %" " ""#! . 5. . Summer Olympics, Barcelona, July 25-August 9. 0. Number of stories about olympics 1 2 3 4. Winter Olympics, Albertville February 8-23. Jan. Feb. Mar. Ap r. May. Jun Jul Aug Sep Day of year, 1992. Oct. Nov Dec. !A?MJ=

(365) 9ADQ FME:=J F=OK KLGJA=K 9:GML *DQEHA; "9E=K . "9E=K

(366) !A?MJ=

(367) K@GOK L@= <9ADQ FME:=J G> F=LOGJC F=OK KLGJA=K ;GN=JAF? L@= *DQEHA;K AF

(368) /@= L@A;C N=JLA;9D DAF=K E9JC L@= :=?AFFAF? 9F< L@= =F< G> L@= *DQEHA; "9E=K AF D:=JLNADD= !=:JM9JQ 9F< AF 9J;=DGF9 %MDQ M?MKL

(369) K =PH=;L=< F=OK KLGJA=K 9:GML L@= *DQEHA;K 9J= E9AFDQ 9AJ=< :=LO==F L@=K= <9L=K

(370) *F 9F 9N=J9?= <9Q <MJAF? 9F *DQEHA; "9E= L@= F=LOGJC F=OK :JG9<;9KLK

(371) F=OK KLGJA=K 9:GML L@= *DQEHA;K

(372) =DGO O= OADD AFN=KLA?9L= O@=L@=J L@=K= KLGJA=K ;JGO< GML F=OK 9:GML F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK 9F< O@=L@=J L@AK 9Z=;LK J=DA=> <=;AKAGFK

(373) )9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK 9HH=9J AF L@= F=OK FGL BMKL GF L@= <9Q G> L@= <AK9KL=J :ML 9DKG AF L@= <9QK >GDDGOAF? L@= <AK9KL=J. K== !A?MJ=

(374)

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(376) .H=;AS;9DDQ O= OADD MK= L@= O=A?@L=< 9N=J9?= G> <9QK O@=J= L@= O=A?@LK 9J= L@= =EHAJA;9D <AKLJA:MLAGF G> <AK9KL=J F=OK KLGJA=K H=J <9Q >GDDGOAF? L@= <AK9KL=J ?AN=F :Q !A?MJ=

(377)

(378) /@AK O=A?@L=< 9N=J9?= N9JA9:D= OADD := ;9DD=< ,9-0*$3

(379) -GM?@DQ H=J;=FL G> L@= <AK9KL=JK AF GMJ K9EHD= LG := =P9;L G;;MJ O@=F L@= N9JA9:D= ,9-0*$3 AK ?J=9L=J L@9F R=JG

(380) *MJ K=;GF< E=9KMJ= G> L@= 9N9AD9:ADALQ G> F=OKOGJL@Q E9L=JA9D AK L@= E=<A9F 9;JGKK :JG9<;9KLK AF 9 <9Q FME:=J G> EAFML=K <=NGL=< :Q 9 F=OK :JG9<;9KL <=NGL=K LG L@= LGH L@J== F=OK K=?E=FLK AF 9 <9Q %"*,9 .&73 02&3352&

(381) 2@=F 9 D9J?= E=<A9 =N=FL L9C=K HD9;= L@9L KLGJQ AK MKM9DDQ HD9;=< 9K GF= G> L@= SJKL F=OK KLGJA=K AF 9 :JG9<;9KL 9F< EGJ= LAE= 9F< GJ F=OK K=?E=FLK 9J= <=NGL=< LG L@= KLGJQ

(382) /@AK KM??=KLK L@9L L@= 9EGMFL G> LAE= <=NGL=< LG L@= SJKL L@J== F=OK K=?E=FLK AK 9 ?GG< AF<A;9LGJ G> @GO EM;@ F=OKOGJL@Q E9L=JA9D AK 9N9AD9:D= GF 9 ?AN=F <9Q

(383) 2= MK= L@=.

(384) #! %" !$#" %" " ""#! . . E=<A9F N9DM= 9;JGKK F=OK :JG9<;9KLK AF 9 <9Q J9L@=J L@9F L@= E=9F LG J=<M;= L@= =Z=;L G> E=9KMJ=E=FL =JJGJ AF L@= J=HGJL=< LAE= >GJ F=OK K=?E=FLK

(385) *F= ;GF;=JF AK L@9L L@= %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& AK =F<G?=FGMK LG KLGJA=K 9:GML <AK9K L=JK KAF;= L@= 9AJAF? G> 9 <AK9KL=J KLGJQ OADD 9Z=;L L@= 9EGMFL G> LAE= <=NGL=< LG L@= LGH L@J== KLGJA=K

(386) /G <AEAFAK@ L@AK HJG:D=E O= OADD MK= L@= 9N=J9?= G> %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& GN=J L@= <9QK >GDDGOAF? L@= <AK9KL=J AF EGKL KH=;AS;9LAGFK

(387) /@AK N9JA9:D= OADD := ;9DD=< .&73 02&3352&

(388) $F L@= JG:MKLF=KK K=;LAGF O= 9DKG J=HGJL J=KMDLK O@=F MKAF? L@= 9N=J9?= O=A?@L=< :Q L@= =EHAJA;9D <AKLJA:MLAGF G> <AK9KL=J F=OK KLGJA=K H=J <9Q >GDDGOAF? L@= <AK9KL=J 9F< L@= MFO=A?@L=< <9Q 9N=J9?=

(389) !A?MJ= HDGLK %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& >JGE LG

(390) 2= @9N= E9JC=< L@= <9L= OAL@ L@= @A?@=KL N9DM= G> %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& >GJ =9;@ Q=9J

(391) /@= F=OK KLGJA=K ;GJJ=KHGF<AF? LG L@=K= <9L=K 9J= DAKL=< AF /9:D= :=DGO

(392) /@= L9:D= 9DKG DAKLK L@= E9AF KLGJA=K ;GJJ=KHGF<AF? LG L@= K=;GF< 9F< L@AJ< @A?@=KL Q=9JDQ N9DM=K G> %"*,9 .&73 02&3352&

(393) /@= GN=J9DD @A?@=KL N9DM= EAFML=K O9K J=;GJ<=< >GJ .=HL=E:=J

(394) #GO=N=J O= ;G<=< .=HL=E:=J 9K EAKKAF? KAF;= L@= =P;=HLAGF9D =N=FL =PL=F<=< L@= D=F?L@ G> L@= F=OK :JG9<;9KLK

(395) )GL= 9DKG L@9L L@=J= AK 9 KDA?@L MHO9J< LJ=F< AF %"*,9 .&73 02&3352&

(396) /@AK EA?@L J=T=;L 9 ?=F=J9D MHO9J< LJ=F< AF L@= 9N9AD9:ADALQ G> :J=9CAF? F=OK KLGJA=K GJ ;@9F?=K AF L@= F=OK L=;@FGDG?Q

(397) 2= OADD AF;DM<= Q=9J <MEEQ N9JA9:D=K AF 9DD J=?J=KKAGFK LG HA;C MH L@AK LQH= G> N9JA9LAGF

(398) /@=J= AK 9DKG K=9KGF9D N9JA9LAGF AF <9ADQ F=OK HJ=KKMJ=

(399) /@=J= AK 9F =9JDQ KMEE=J F=OK <JGM?@L OAL@ =P;=HLAGF9DDQ DGO %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& AF (9Q 9F< %MF= 9F< F=OK TGG<K AF L@= >9DD OAL@ @A?@=J %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& AF .=HL=E:=J 9F< )GN=E:=J

(400) !GJ L@AK J=9KGF O= OADD AF;DM<= EGFL@ SP=< =Z=;LK AF 9DD J=?J=KKAGF

(401) $K %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& 9 J=9KGF9:D= E=9KMJ= >GJ L@= G;;MJJ=F;= G> F=OKOGJL@Q =N=FLK !A?MJ= HDGLK %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& <MJAF? <9QK (9J;@ XHJAD

(402) /@= @GJARGFL9D T9L DAF= <=HA;LK L@= E=9F >GJ L@= H=JAG<

(403) /@= S?MJ= 9DKG <AKHD9QK L@= =N=FLK G;;MJJAF? <MJAF? L@= H=9CK G> %"*,9 .&73 02&3352&

(404) HH9J=FLDQ GMJ E=9KMJ= ;9HLMJ=K L@= E9BGJ =N=FLK <MJAF? L@=K= <9QK IMAL= O=DD KL9JLAF? OAL@ L@= 0

(405) .

(406) @AF9 .HQ HD9F= AF;A<=FL HJAD HJAD . J=9;@AF? ALK E9PAEME 9JGMF< L@= .=HL=E:=J L=JJGJAKL 9LL9;CK 9F< =F<AF? OAL@ L@= .A=?= 9L L@= @MJ;@ G> )9LANALQ AF =L@D=@=E HJAD X(9Q

(407) +DGLK >GJ GL@=J LAE= H=JAG<K <G 9F =IM9DDQ ?GG< BG: AF ;9HLMJAF? E9BGJ =N=FLK

(408) DKG AF;DM<=< AF L@= ?J9H@ AK GMJ <9QK 9N=J9?= .&73 02&3352&

(409) /@AK E=9KMJ= HMLK 9F =IM9D O=A?@L GF 9DD <9QK <MJAF? L@= <9QK

(410) #GO=N=J 9K <AK;MKK=< AF K=;LAGF

(411) . EGKL KLGJA=K 9J= 9AJ=< OAL@AF L@= SJKL <9QK >GDDGOAF? L@= KLJAC= <9L= G> L@= <AK9KL=J

(412).

(413) 0. 500. News pressure 1000. 1500. 2000. 2500. 22aug1968 15oct1969. 01jan1970. 28sep1970 16jul1971 09jan1972 12feb1973 01mar1974. 01jan1975 03nov1975 13jul1976 14jul1977. 30jun1985 29jan1986. D ate. Figure 4: Daily news pressure (minutes), by day. 19nov1978 31mar1979. 01jan1980. 10aug1980 30mar1981 04aug1982 25oct1983 12jul1984. 01jan1985. 26feb1987. 22dec1988 09mar1989 23dec1989 04aug1990 27feb1991. 01jan1990. 16jul1992 17jan1993 17jan1994. 01jan1995 03oct1995 18jul1996 23dec1997 16dec1998 01apr 1999. 01jan2000 26nov2000 13sep2001 11sep2002 14aug2003. 01jan2005.

(414) 0. 10. 20. 30. 0 1oc t20 01 d ate. Daily Ne wspres s ure W eigh ted News p re ss ure. 0 1ju l2 001. 01a pr20 02. N ews pre ss ure M ea n Da ily N ews pres sure. 0 1jan 200 2. Figure 5: News Pressure (minutes) during 405 days, March 15 2001 – Apr 23 2002, by day. 01 apr2 001. U.S.-China Spy Plane Incident. McVeigh Execution Postponed. Allison hits Texas McVeigh Execution. New Policy on Stem Cell Research. 9/11 Attacks. Invasion of Afghanistan Anthrax Bush Address to UN Plane Crash Flight 587 Afghanistan: Kabul Falls Afghanistan: Kandahar Falls Osama Bin Laden Video Tape Afghanistan: Tora Bora Falls Enron Bankruptcy. Afghanistan: Operation Anaconda. Bethlehem: Siege at Church of Nativity.

(415) . #! %" !$#" %" " ""#! /@=J=>GJ= O= ;GFKLJM;L 9F 9DL=JF9LAN= E=9KMJ= 7&*()4&% .&73 02&3352& #=J=. %"*,9 .&73 02&3352& >GJ =9;@ <9Q <MJAF? L@= <9Q H=JAG< AK O=A?@L=< :Q L@= =P HGKL HJG:9:ADALQ L@9L L@= KLGJQ 9HH=9JK GF L@9L H9JLA;MD9J <9Q A

(416) =

(417) L@= <AKLJA:MLAGF HDGLL=< AF !A?MJ=

(418)

(419) /@= N9JA9:D= 7&*()4&% .&73 02&3352& AK 9DKG HDGLL=< AF !A?MJ=

(420) )9LMJ9DDQ AL AK ;@9J9;L=JAR=< :Q EGJ= HJGFGMF;=< H=9CK 9F< LJGM?@K

(421). "+8:198. /@AK K=;LAGFK ;GFL9AFK GMJ =EHAJA;9D J=KMDLK

(422) !AJKL O= <AK;MKK L@= KLJM;LMJ= G> L@= =EHAJA;9D EG<=D

(423) !GJ 9 >GJE9D EG<=D G> L@= =Z=;L G> F=OK GF J=DA=> K== L@= HH=F<AP

(424) /@=F O= 9F9DQR= L@= =EHAJA;9D <=L=JEAF9FLK G> F=OK 9F< J=DA=> AF <=L9AD

(425) !AF9DDQ. O= <AK;MKK L@= JG:MKLF=KK G> L@= J=KMDLK

(426). . #5+)/@)'9/43. *MJ =;GFGE=LJA; KH=;AS;9LAGF OADD := G> L@= >GDDGOAF? >GJE

(427) !GJ <AK9KL=J 8 L@= D9L=FL N9JA9:D= ?49845 J=DA=>OGJL@QF=KK <=K;JA:=K L@= :=F=SLK G> HJGNA<AF? J=DA=> >JGE L@= <=;AKAGF E9C=JVK H=JKH=;LAN=. ?49845 ;4D@

(428)

(429) .

(430) . O@=J= ;4D@ ;4D@ AF<A;9L=K L@9L L@= <AK9KL=J O9K ;GN=J=< 6O9K FGL ;GN =J=<7 AF L@= F=OK /@= N=;LGJ ;GFL9AFK <AK9KL=J KH=;AS; N9JA9:D=K KM;@ 9K +*,,&% 9F< ":&$4&% 9F< SP=< =Z=;LK >GJ <AK9KL=J LQH= ;GMFLJQ Q=9J =L;

(431) -=DA=> AK HJGNA<=< A> ?49845 AK 9:GN= 9 L@J=K@GD< N9DM=. ?49845 . A> ?49845 A> ?49845 .

(432) . O@=J= ?49845 ?49845 AK L@= =N=FL L@9L *! HJGNA<=< 6<A< FGL HJGNA<=7 <AK9KL=J J=DA=> LG <AK9KL=J 8 2= OADD L=KL L@= @QHGL@=KAK L@9L F=OK ;GN=J9?= @9K 9 HGKALAN= =Z=;L GF L@= J=DA=> <=;AKAGF

(433) .AEAD9JDQ L@= D9L=FL N9JA9:D= ;4D@ F=OKOGJL@QF=KK <=K;JA:=K L@= :=F=SLK G> ;GN=JAF? <AK9KL=J 8 >JGE L@= /1 F=LOGJCVK H=JKH=;LAN=. ;4D@ ;4D@ =?4@@B?4

(434) <9F:=82@

(435)

(436) .

(437) .

(438) #! %" !$#" %" " ""#! . . /@AK D9L=FL N9JA9:D= <=L=JEAF=K L@= F=OK <=;AKAGF 9;;GJ<AF? LG ;4D@ . A> ;4D@ A> ;4D@ . .

(439) . *MJ @QHGL@=KAK @=J= AK L@9L <AK9KL=JK 9J= D=KK DAC=DQ LG := ;GN=J=< O@=F L@=J= AK 9 ?J=9L <=9D G> GL@=J :J=9CAF? F=OK 9N9AD9:D= 9K E=9KMJ=< :Q .&73 02&3352& 9F< ,9-0*$3 L@9L AK 9F< /@= :9KA; =;GFGE=LJA; HJG:D=E AK L@9L F=OKOGJL@AF=KK 9F< J=DA=>OGJL@AF=KK 9J= :GL@ AF;J=9KAF? AF L@= K=N=JALQ G> L@= <AK9KL=J

(440) /@=J= 9J= E9FQ >9;=LK G> L@= K=N=JALQ G> <AK9KL=JK L@9L O= ;9FFGL G:K=JN= >GJ =P9EHD= @GO K=N=J= L@= KALM9LAGF AK >GJ L@GK= 9Z=;L=< :ML FGL CADD=<

(441) /@AK MFG:K=JN=< K=N=JALQ 9Z=;LK :GL@ F=OK ;GN=J9?= 9F< L@= HJGNAKAGF G> J=DA=>

(442) K E=FLAGF=< =9JDA=J ;4D@ 9F< ?49845 E9Q 9DKG := ;GJJ=D9L=< :=;9MK= :GL@ 9J= <JAN=F :Q L@= K9DA=F;= G> L@= <AK9KL=J LG L@= E=JA;9F HM:DA;

(443) GFK=IM=FLDQ L@=J= AK DALLD= @GH= AF A<=FLA>QAF? L@= ;9MK9D =Z=;L G> ;4D@ GF ?49845 >JGE 9 J=?J=KKAGF G> L@= D9LL=J GF L@= >GJE=J

(444) /G <=L=JEAF= O@=L@=J .&73 @9K 9 ;9MK9D =Z=;L GF 2&,*&' O= AFKL=9< MK= L@= AFKLJME=FL9D N9JA9:D=K .&73 02&3352& 9F< ,9-0*$3

(445) KKMEAF? 9 DAF=9J HJG:9:ADALQ EG<=D 9F< L@9L # ;4D@ =?4@@B?4 <9F:=82@ # ;4D@ =?4@@B?4 <9F:=82@ L@= J=<M;=< >GJE =IM9LAGFK 9J= # ?49845 ;4D@ =?4@@B?4 <9F:=82@ .

(446) . ;4D@ =?4@@B?4

(447) <9F:=82@

(448)

(449) . # ;4D@ ;4D@ =?4@@B?4 <9F:=82@ .

(450) . ;4D@ =?4@@B?4

(451) <9F:=82@

(452) .

(453) . 0F<=J L@= 9:GN= 9KKMEHLAGFK L@= EG<=D AK A<=FLAS=< 9F< L@= H9J9E=L=JK E9Q := =KLAE9L=< MKAF? /OG .L9?= '=9KL .IM9J=K

(454) /@= C=Q A<=FLA>QAF? 9KKMEHLAGF AK L@9L .&73 02&3352& 9F< ,9-0*$3 9J= MF;GJJ= D9L=< OAL@ L@= MFG:K=JN=< K=N=JALQ G> <AK9KL=JK ;GF<ALAGF9D GF L@= N9JA9:D=K AF /@=J= 9J= K=9KGF9D H9LL=JFK AF L@= K=N=JALQ G> <AK9KL=JK KM;@ 9K KLGJEK 9F< TGG<K.

(455) . #! %" !$#" %" " ""#! . 9F< 9DKG K=9KGF9D H9LL=JFK AF ,9-0*$3 9F< .&73 02&3352& OAL@ L@= LQHA;9D KME E=J F=OK <JGM?@LK

(456) !GJ L@AK J=9KGF O= AF;DM<= EGFL@ <MEEQ N9JA9:D=K

(457) /@=J= AK 9DKG 9 Q=9JDQ LJ=F< AF .&73 02&3352& 9F< 2&,*&' KG O= AF;DM<= Q=9J <MEEQ N9JA9:D=K

(458) GFLJGDDAF? >GJ Q=9J 9F< EGFL@ =Z=;LK O= K== FG 9 HJAGJA J=9KGF O@Q L@= K=N=JALQ G> F9LMJ9D <AK9KL=JK AF >GJ=A?F ;GMFLJA=K K@GMD< := ;GJJ=D9L=< OAL@ GMJ E=9KMJ=K G> L@= 9N9AD9:ADALQ G> F=OKOGJL@Q E9L=JA9D 2= OADD AF;DM<= >MJL@=J ;GFLJGDK AF L@= J= ?J=KKAGFK :ML GFDQ LG J=<M;= L@= J=KA<M9D N9JA9F;=

(459) <<ALAGF9D ;GF;=JFK J=?9J<AF? A<=FLAS;9LAGF OADD := 9<<J=KK=< AF L@= JG:MKLF=KK K=;LAGF

(460). . 4< 9.+ ';'/1'(/1/9> 4, 49.+7 3+<8 'B+)9 */8'89+7 3+<8 '3* 7+1/+,. 2= SJKL =P9EAF= @GO L@= HJ=KKMJ= >GJ F=LOGJC F=OK LAE= 9Z=;LK F=OK ;GN=J9?= G> 9F< J=DA=> LG <AK9KL=JK

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