• No results found

The Skill Bias of World Trade

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Share "The Skill Bias of World Trade"

Copied!
33
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Full text

(1)

Seminar Paper No. 707

THE SKILL BIAS OF WORLD TRADE by

Paolo Epifani and Gino A. Gancia

INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES

Stockholm University

(2)

Seminar Paper No. 707

THE SKILL BIAS OF WORLD TRADE

by

Paolo Epifani and Gino A. Gancia

Papers in the seminar series are published on the internet in Adobe Acrobat (PDF) format.

Download from http://www.iies.su.se/

Seminar Papers are preliminary material circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.

March 2002

Institute for International Economic Studies S-106 91 Stockholm

Sweden

(3)

Wkh Vnloo Eldv ri Zruog Wudgh 

Sdror Hslidql | Jlqr D1 Jdqfld } Pdufk 5335

Devwudfw

Zh dujxh wkdw/ zlwk dq hodvwlflw| ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq frqvxpswlrq juhdwhu wkdq rqh dqg kljkhu vfdoh hfrqrplhv lq wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhf0 wruv/ wkh hqwluh yroxph ri zruog wudgh pdwwhuv iru zdjh lqhtxdolw|1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw wudgh lqwhjudwlrq/ hyhq dprqj lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv/

lv olnho| wr lqfuhdvh wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Wklv uhvxow fdq dovr h{sodlq wkh lqfuhdvh lq vnloo suhpld lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv wkdw kdyh h{shul0 hqfhg gudvwlf wudgh olehudol}dwlrqv1 Ixuwkhu/ zh dujxh wkdw hylghqfh ri d idoolqj uhodwlyh sulfh ri vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrgv fdq eh uhfrqflohg zlwk wkh idvw jurzwk ri zruog wudgh dqg wkdw wkh lqwhuvhfwrudo prelolw| ri fdslwdo h{dfhuedwhv wkh hhfw ri wudgh rq lqhtxdolw|1 Zh surylgh qhz hpslulfdo hylghqfh lq vxssruw ri rxu uhvxowv dqg d txdqwlwdwlyh dvvhvv0 phqw ri wkh vnloo eldv ri zruog wudgh1

MHO fodvvlfdwlrq= I45/ I491

Nh|zrugv= Vnloo Suhplxp/ Vfdoh Hhfw/ Lqwud0Lqgxvwu| dqg Lqwhu0 Lqgxvwu| Wudgh1



Zh duh judwhixo wr Rolylhu Eodqfkdug/ Iudqfhvfr Fdvhool/ Khquln Kruq/ Jldqpdufr Rwwdyldqr/ Dohvvdqgur Wxuulql/ Glhwhu Xuedq/ vhplqdu sduwlflsdqwv dw LLHV/ Vwrfnkrop Xqlyhuvlw|/ PLW dqg wkh FQU Frqihuhqfh +Plodqr 5334, dqg hvshfldoo| Gdurq Dfhprjox/

Mdxph Yhqwxud dqg Ideul}lr ]lolerwwl iru khosixo frpphqwv1 Zh wkdqn Fkulvwlqd Oùq0 qheodg iru hglwruldo dvvlvwdqfh1 Wkh xvxdo fdyhdw dssolhv1 Ilqdqfldo vxssruw iurp wkh Zdoodqghu dqg Khgholxv Irxqgdwlrq lv judwhixoo| dfnqrzohgjhg1

|

Xqlyhuvlwã gl Sdupd/ yld Xqlyhuvlwã/ 45 0 76433 Sdupd +Lwdo|, dqg FHVSUL +Erffrql,1 H0pdlo= sdror1hslidqlCxqlsu1lw

}

PLW Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv/ H850584G 83 Phpruldo Gulyh/ Fdpeulgjh PD 354750 467: +XVD, dqg LLHV +Vwrfnkrop Xqlyhuvlw|,1 H0pdlo= jdqfldjCplw1hgx

4

(4)

4 Lqwurgxfwlrq

Zdjh lqhtxdolw|kdv zlghqhg ryhu wkh odvw wzr ghfdghv1 Wklv idfw kdv vwlp0 xodwhg d jurzlqj erg|ri uhvhdufk/ zklfk srlqwhg dw vnloo0eldvhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh dqg lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh dv pdmru h{sodqdwlrqv1 Lw kdv ehhq dujxhg wkdw whfkqrorj|fdq eh dw wkh urrw ri wkh lqfuhdvh lq lqhtxdolw|ehfdxvh uhfhqw lqqrydwlrqv lq wkh surgxfwlrq surfhvv/ vxfk dv wkh zlghvsuhdg lqwurgxfwlrq ri frpsxwhuv/ kdyh errvwhg wkh uhodwlyh surgxfwlylw|ri vnloohg zrunhuv1 4 Lq frqwudvw/ wudgh prghov jhqhudoo|dwwulexwh wkh ulvlqj vnloo suhplxp lq RHFG frxqwulhv wr wkh jurzlqj frpshwlwlrq ri lpsruwv iurp orz0zdjh surgxfhuv gxh wr joredol}dwlrq1 5 Krzhyhu/ wkh fxuuhqw frqvhqvxv lv wkdw wkh uroh ri lq0 whuqdwlrqdo wudgh lv ri vpdoo hpslulfdo uhohydqfh zkhq frpsduhg wr wkh uroh ri whfkqrorj|1 Wkhuh duh wkuhh pdlq uhdvrqv zk| wkh frqyhqwlrqdo wudgh h{sod0 qdwlrq idlov wr frqylqfh1 Iluvw/ dowkrxjk wkh odvw wzr ghfdghv kdyh zlwqhvvhg d vxevwdqwldo lqfuhdvh lq wkh yroxph ri Qruwk0Vrxwk wudgh/ dgydqfhg frxq0 wulhv vwloo wudgh wrr olwwoh zlwk ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv dqg khqfh/ wkh hhfw ri orz0sulfh lpsruwv lv qrw olnho|wr eh txdqwlwdwlyho|uhohydqw1 6 Vhfrqg/ wkh ulvh lq wkh vnloo suhplxp kdv dovr rffxuuhg lq pdq|ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv/

zklfk uxqv frxqwhu wr wkh frqyhqwlrqdo wudgh vwru|1 7 Wklug/ prvw vwxglhv vxjjhvw wkdw wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrgv glg qrw lqfuhdvh gxulqj wkh shulrg ri ulvlqj lqhtxdolw|/ 8 zkhuhdv wudgh prghov lpso|dq xqdpeljxrxv srvlwlyh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq sulfhv ri idfwruv dqg jrrgv1

Lq wklv sdshu/ zh looxvwudwh krz wr uhfrqfloh wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh zlwk d qhz uroh ri lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh lq h{sodlqlqj zdjh lqhtxdolw|1 Zh gr vr e|uhylvlwlqj wkh qhz wudgh wkhru|*v dffrxqw ri wkh glvwulexwlrqdo hhfwv ri lqwud0lqgxvwu|wudgh1 Wkh frqyhqwlrqdo zlvgrp lv wkdw/ vlqfh/ e|ghqlwlrq/

lqwud0lqgxvwu|wudgh lv wudgh lq jrrgv zlwk vlplodu idfwru lqwhqvlwlhv/ lw kdv

4

Vhh/ dprqj rwkhuv/ Dxwru hw do1 ^4<<;`1

5

Lq sduwlfxodu/ Zrrg ^4<<7/ 4<<;` sursrvhv dq dxjphqwhg Khfnvfkhu0Rkolq wkhru| edvhg rq vshfldol}hg wudglqj htxloleuld1 Ihhqvwud dqg Kdqvrq ^4<<9/ 4<<<` lqvwhdg hpskdvl}h wkh uroh sod|hg e| lqwhqvlyh rxwvrxuflqj ri ohvv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh dfwlylwlhv1

6

Zrrg ^4<<;` uhsruwv wkdw lpsruwv ri pdqxidfwxuhv iurp ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv frqvwlwxwh d vpdoo iudfwlrq ri RHFG JGS +derxw 6(,/ dowkrxjk wklv vkduh kdv doprvw wulsohg ehwzhhq 4<;3 dqg 4<<81 Wkh srlqw wkdw wkhvh yroxphv ri wudgh duh wrr vpdoo wr kdyh dq lpsruwdqw hhfw rq zdjh lqhtxdolw| kdv ehhq irufhixoo| pdgh e| Nuxjpdq ^5333`1

7

Iru hylghqfh rq zdjh lqhtxdolw| lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv vhh Ureelqv ^4<<9`/ Kdqvrq dqg Kduulvrq ^4<<<` dqg Ehupdq/ Erxqg dqg Pdfklq ^4<<;`1

8

Odzuhqfh dqg Vodxjkwhu ^4<<6`/ lq sduwlfxodu/ grfxphqw d ghfolqh lq wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri XV vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrgv lq wkh 4<;3v1

5

(5)

qr lpsdfw rq uhodwlyh idfwru ghpdqg dqg wkhuhiruh lw fdqqrw h{sodlq wkh hyr0 oxwlrq ri wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Zh dujxh wkdw wklv vhhplqjo|sodxvleoh uhvxow fulwlfdoo|klqjhv rq hlwkhu ri wkh iroorzlqj dvvxpswlrqv= d, Free0Grxjodv suhihuhqfhv> e, shuihfw v|pphwu| ehwzhhq vhfwruv1 Zh uhod{ wkhvh dvvxps0 wlrqv wr vkrz wkdw dq hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq frqvxpswlrq juhdwhu wkdq rqh dqg kljkhu vfdoh hfrqrplhv lq wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv lpso|wkdw dq|

lqfuhdvh lq wkh yroxph ri wudgh/ hyhq ehwzhhq lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv/ whqgv wr eh vnloo0eldvhg1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq ehklqg wklv uhvxow lv yhu|vlpsoh1 Wudgh h{0 sdqgv wkh pdunhw vl}h ri wkh hfrqrp|/ zklfk lv ehqhfldo ehfdxvh ri lqfuhdv0 lqj uhwxuqv1 Lq uhodwlyh whupv/ krzhyhu/ rxwsxw lqfuhdvhv e|pruh lq wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwru/ vlqfh lw lv fkdudfwhul}hg e|vwurqjhu hfrqrplhv ri vfdoh/

dqg wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrg wkhuhiruh idoov1 Zlwk dq hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq frqvxpswlrq juhdwhu wkdq rqh/ wkh ghpdqg iru vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrgv lqfuhdvhv pruh wkdq sursruwlrqdoo|/ udlvlqj wkhlu vkduh ri wrwdo h{shqglwxuh dqg wkh uhodwlyh zdjh ri vnloohg zrunhuv1

Wklv uhvxow kdv lpsruwdqw lpsolfdwlrqv1 Iluvw/ lw lv wkh hqwluh yroxph ri zruog wudgh wkdw pdwwhuv iru lqhtxdolw|dqg qrw wkh vpdoo yroxphv ri Qruwk0 Vrxwk wudgh rqo|1 Lq wklv uhvshfw/ zh vkrz wkdw wkh vnloo eldv ri wudgh lv txdqwlwdwlyho|uhohydqw/ vlqfh xqghu uhdvrqdeoh sdudphwhu ydoxhv wudgh lqwh0 judwlrq ehwzhhq wzr lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv fdq lqfuhdvh vnloo suhpld e|doprvw 43(1 Vhfrqg/ li wkh vnloo0eldvhg vfdoh hhfw lv vwurqj hqrxjk wr ryhufrph wkh vwdqgdug idfwru sursruwlrqv hhfw/ lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh zloo vsxu lqhtxdo0 lw|hyhq lq wkh vnloo0srru ghyhorslqj hfrqrplhv/ pdnlqj wkh prgho frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh hylghqfh ri ulvlqj vnloo0suhpld lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv wkdw kdyh h{0 shulhqfhg wudgh olehudol}dwlrqv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh vkrz lq d vlpsoh qxphulf h{huflvh wkdw wudgh lqwhjudwlrq ehwzhhq Ph{lfr dqg wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv fdq dffrxqw iru d vljqlfdqw lqfuhdvh lq wkh Ph{lfdq vnloo suhplxp1 Wklug/ rxu prgho fdq h{sodlq wkh ghfolqh lq wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrgv gxulqj wkh shulrg ri ulvlqj vnloo suhpld dqg jurzlqj yroxphv ri zruog wudgh=

lq wkh iudphzrun zh sursrvh/ wkh vr0fdoohg sulfh sx}}oh +wkh hpslulfdo qg0 lqj wkdw uhodwlyh idfwru dqg jrrg sulfhv pryhg lq rssrvlwh gluhfwlrqv, vlpso|

glvdsshduv1

Zh dovr h{whqg rxu dqdo|vlv e| lqwurgxflqj sk|vlfdo fdslwdo1 Dv wkh fds0 lwdo vwrfn lv dq lpsruwdqw frpsrqhqw ri hfrqrplf vl}h/ zh qg wkdw lwv df0 fxpxodwlrq ohdgv wr kljkhu vnloo suhpld1 Pruh lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ zh vkrz wkdw wkh lqwhuvhfwrudo prelolw|ri fdslwdo lv olnho|wr h{dfhuedwh wkh hhfwv ri wudgh lqwhjudwlrq rq zdjh lqhtxdolw|1 Rxu qglqjv duh frqvlvwhqw zlwk erwk wkh hylghqfh rq fdslwdo uhorfdwlrq wrzdugv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv +Fdvhool/ ^4<<<`,

6

(6)

Output elasticity of the total cost function

S h a r e o f p r o d u c t i o n w o r k e r s i n t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t

.5 .6 .7 .8 .9

.6 .8 1 1 . 2

F O O D

T E X T I L E A P P A R E L W O O D

F U R N I T

P A P E R P R I N T I N G CHEMICAL

P E T R O L

P L A S T I C

L E A T H E R G L A S S

M E T A L F A B M E T

M A C H I N E RE L E C T E Q T R A N S E Q

I N S T R U M

O T H M A N U F

Iljxuh 4= Vnloo0lqwhqvlw|dqg lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv dqg wkh odujh olwhudwxuh rq fdslwdo0vnloo frpsohphqwdulw|1

Dv phqwlrqhg deryh/ rxu uhvxowv uhvw rq wzr fuxfldo dvvxpswlrqv1 Vfdoh hfrqrplhv pxvw eh uhodwlyho|vwurqjhu lq wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv dqg wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq jrrgv ri glhuhqw vnloo0lqwhqvlw|pxvw eh juhdwhu wkdq rqh1 Krz uhdolvwlf duh wkhvh dvvxpswlrqvB Zh uhylhz khuh vrph hylghqfh1 Sdxo dqg Vlhjho ^4<<<` hvwlpdwh uhwxuqv wr vfdoh lq XV pdqxidfwxu0 lqj lqgxvwulhv dw wkh wzr0gljlw lqgxvwu|ohyho iru wkh shulrg 4<:<04<;<1 Iljxuh 4 sorwv wkhlu hvwlpdwhv djdlqvw d phdvxuh ri vhfwrudo vnloo0lqwhqvlw|1 Iru hdfk lqgxvwu|/ wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv uhsruwv wkh rxwsxw hodvwlflw| ri wkh orqj0uxq wrwdo frvw ixqfwlrq +dq lqyhuvh phdvxuh ri lqwhuqdo dqg h{whuqdo vfdoh hfrqrplhv, dqg wkh krul}rqwdo d{lv vkrzv hdfk vhfwru*v vkduh ri surgxfwlrq zrunhuv lq wrwdo hpsor|phqw lq 4<<3 +dq lqyhuvh phdvxuh ri vnloo0lqwhqvlw|,1 Wkh gld0 judp fohduo|vkrzv d srvlwlyh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq vnloo0lqwhqvlw|dqg vfdoh hfrqrplhv1 Zh dovr uhsruw d zhljkwhg uhjuhvvlrq olqh/ zkrvh vorsh frh!flhqw dqg vwdqgdug huuru duh 318;; dqg 31547/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Vlplodu uhvxowv duh uh0 sruwhg e|Dqwzhlohu dqg Wuh hu ^5333`/ xvlqj lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh gdwd iru :4 frxqwulhv dqg d yhu|glhuhqw phwkrgrorj|= wkh|qg wkdw vnloo0lqwhqvlyh

7

(7)

vhfwruv/ vxfk dv Shwurohxp Uhqhulhv dqg Frdo Surgxfwv/ Skdupdfhxwlfdov/

Hohfwulf dqg Hohfwurqlf pdfklqhu|dqg Qrq0Hohfwulfdo Pdfklqhu|/ kdyh dq dyhudjh vfdoh hodvwlflw|durxqg 415/ zkhuhdv wudglwlrqdo ohvv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv/ vxfk dv Dssduho/ Ohdwkhu/ Irrwzhdu dqg Irrg/ duh fkdudfwhul}hg e|

frqvwdqw uhwxuqv1 9 Ilqdoo|/ qrwh wkdw pdq| vnloo0lqwhqvlyh dfwlylwlhv +vxfk dv U)G dqg Pdunhwlqj, kdyh wkh qdwxuh ri {hg frvwv dqg wkhuhiruh whqg wr jhqhudwh vfdoh hfrqrplhv1

Prylqj wr rxu vhfrqg k|srwkhvlv/ vhyhudo revhuydwlrqv vxjjhvw wkdw wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq dprqj jrrgv zlwk glhuhqw vnloo0lqwhqvlw|lv juhdwhu wkdq rqh1 Qrwlfh/ uvw/ wkdw d xqlw hodvwlflw|zrxog lpso|frqvwdqw h{shq0 glwxuh vkduhv ryhu wlph/ exw wklv lv frqwudglfwhg e|XV gdwd= ehwzhhq 4<:3 dqg 4<<7/ wkh h{shqglwxuh vkduh +uhodwlyh wr wrwdo pdqxidfwxulqj, lq wkh ohvv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh wh{wloh0dssduho0irrwzhdu vhfwruv kdv idoohq e|pruh wkdq 63(/

zkhuhdv wkrvh lq prghuq vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv vxfk dv r!fh pdfklqhu|/ skdu0 pdfhxwlfdov dqg hohfwulfdo pdfklqhu|kdyh ulvhq e|493(/ pruh wkdq 433(

dqg doprvw 83(/ uhvshfwlyho|1 : Pruh lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ zh vkrz wkdw lq rxu prgho dq hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq surgxfwlrq ehwzhhq vnloohg dqg xqvnloohg zrun0 huv juhdwhu wkdq rqh lpsolhv dq hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq frqvxpswlrq dovr juhdwhu wkdq rqh1 Zh fdq wkhq uhihu wr vwxglhv wkdw surylgh hvwlpdwhv ri wkh iruphu sdudphwhu1 Iuhhpdq ^4<;9` frqfoxghv klv uhylhz ri wkh hpslulfdo hy0 lghqfh vxjjhvwlqj d ydoxh ri wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq pruh dqg ohvv hgxfdwhg oderu lq wkh udqjh ehwzhhq 4 dqg 51 Kdphuphvk dqg Judqw

^4<:<` uhylhz 53 hvwlpdwhv ri wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq surgxf0 wlrq dqg qrq0surgxfwlrq zrunhuv dqg qg d phdq hvwlpdwh ri 5161 Ilqdoo|/

xvlqj d glhuhqw pdfurhfrqrplf dssurdfk/ Nuxvhoo hw do1 ^5333` uhsruw dq hvwlpdwh ri 419: iru wkh XV hfrqrp|dqg Ndw} dqg Pxusk|^4<<5` qg d ydoxh ri 41741

Zh dovr frqiurqw rxu uhvxow zlwk wkh gdwd/ e|frqvlghulqj d sdqho ri 68 frxqwulhv revhuyhg durxqg 4<;3 dqg 4<<31 Rxu prgho vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh vnloo suhplxp lv kljkhu wkh kljkhu lv d frxqwu|*v rshqqhvv wr wudgh/ wkh juhdwhu lwv vl}h dqg wkh orzhu lwv hqgrzphqw ri vnloohg zrunhuv1 Zh wkhuhiruh uhjuhvv wkh

9

Pruh suhflvho|/ vlpsoh fdofxodwlrqv rq wkhlu uhvxowv vkrz wkdw pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwruv zlwk vwurqj hylghqfh ri lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv kdyh dq dyhudjh lqgh{ ri vnloo0lqwhqvlw| +wkh qrupdol}hg udwlr ri zrunhuv zkr frpsohwhg kljk vfkrro wr wkrvh zkr glg qrw, htxdo wr 317/

zkloh wkrvh zlwk frqvwdqw uhwxuqv kdyh dq dyhudjh ydoxh ri 31451 Wkh uhpdlqlqj vhfwruv/

zlwk qrq0urexvw hvwlpdwhv ri uhwxuqv wr vfdoh/ olh lq wkh lqwhuphgldwh udqjh/ zlwk dq dyhudjh vnloo0lqwhqvlw| ri 31561

:

Wkh vrxufh ri wkh gdwd xvhg wr fdofxodwh wkhvh jxuhv lv wkh RHFG VWDQ Gdwdedvh1

8

(8)

vnloo suhplxp rq wkh udwlr ri lpsruwv soxv h{sruwv wr JGS/ wkh vl}h ri wkh oderu irufh dqg wkh vkduh ri zrunhuv zlwk vhfrqgdu|hgxfdwlrq1 Wkh uhvxowv duh vwulnlqj1 Wkh frh!flhqwv ri wkhvh yduldeohv kdyh wkh h{shfwhg vljq dqg duh kljko|vljqlfdqw1 Fhwhulv sdulexv/ d grxeolqj ri wkh ghjuhh ri rshqqhvv lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk d 74( lqfuhdvh lq wkh vnloo suhplxp> d grxeolqj ri wkh vfdoh lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk d <( lqfuhdvh lq wkh vnloo suhplxp/ dqg d grxeolqj lq wkh vkduh ri zrunhuv zlwk vhfrqgdu|hgxfdwlrq ohdgv wr d 54( idoo lq wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Wkhvh uhvxowv wxuq rxw wr eh urexvw zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh phwkrg ri hvwlpdwlrq dqg wkh vshflfdwlrq ri wkh uhjuhvvlrq htxdwlrq1

Zh duh qrw wkh rqo|rqh wr uhfrqvlghu wkh uroh ri lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh lq h{sodlqlqj zdjh lqhtxdolw|1 Qhdu| ^5334`/ Wkrhqlj dqg Yhuglhu ^5334` dqg Hnkrop dqg Plghoiduw0Nqduyln ^5334` ghyhors prghov zkhuh wudgh olehudo0 l}dwlrq ehwzhhq vlplodu frxqwulhv fdq ohdg wr vnloo0eldvhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh1 Wkh lghd xqghuolqj Qhdu|^5334` dqg Wkrhqlj dqg Yhuglhu ^5334` lv wkdw ri

ghihqvlyh lqqrydwlrq= lqfuhdvhg frpshwlwlrq pdnhv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh whfkqror0 jlhv pruh surwdeoh ehfdxvh wkh|ghwhu wkh hqwu|ri qhz upv1 Lq Hnkrop dqg Plghoiduw0Nqduyln ^5334`/ lqvwhdg/ wkh pdunhw vl}h h{sdqvlrq lqgxfhg e|wudgh lqfuhdvhv wkh surwdelolw|ri upv fkdudfwhul}hg e|d kljk +vnloo0 lqwhqvlyh, {hg frvw dqg d orz +xqvnloohg oderu0lqwhqvlyh, pdujlqdo frvw/ wkxv lqgxflqj wkh dgrswlrq ri wkh pruh vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorj|1 Lq frqwudvw/ zh vkrz wkdw hyhq devwudfwlqj iurp whfkqlfdo fkdqjh dqg vwudwhjlf frqvlghud0 wlrqv/ wkh wudgh0lqgxfhg h{sdqvlrq lq pdunhw vl}h lv vx!flhqw wr lqfuhdvh lqhtxdolw|1 Rxu uhvxow lv dovr uhodwhg wr Dfhprjox ^4<<<` dqg Dfhprjox dqg ]lolerwwl ^5334`1 Lq wkhlu ylhz/ Qruwk0Vrxwk wudgh lqgxfhv vnloo0eldvhg whfk0 qlfdo fkdqjh e|pdnlqj vnloo0frpsohphqw lqqrydwlrqv pruh surwdeoh1 Krz0 hyhu/ wudgh ehwzhhq lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv sod|v qr uroh dqg wudgh rshqlqj lq d ghyhorslqj frxqwu|lv xqolnho|wr kdyh dq hhfw rq wkh gluhfwlrq ri whfk0 qlfdo fkdqjh/ vlqfh qr vlqjoh ghyhorslqj frxqwu|kdv wkh hfrqrplf vl}h wr dhfw zruog lqfhqwlyhv1 Dqrwkhu uhodwhg zrun lv Glqrsrxorv hw do1 ^5334`1 Lq wkhlu prgho/ lqwud0lqgxvwu|wudgh h{sdqgv up vl}h/ zklfk lv dvvxphg wr eh vnloo0eldvhg/ dqg khqfh ulvhv wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Lq wklv uhvshfw/ d ixqgdphq0 wdo frqwulexwlrq ri rxu dssurdfk lv wr vkrz krz dq lqfuhdvh lq vfdoh ohdgv wr vnloo0eldvhg ghpdqg vkliwv zlwkrxw uho|lqj rq qrq0krprwkhwlflwlhv1 Ixu0 wkhu/ wkh|frqvlghu d rqh0vhfwru hfrqrp|rqo|/ wkhuhe|plvvlqj vrph jhqhudo htxloleulxp lpsolfdwlrqv ri wudgh prghov +l1h1/ wkh hyroxwlrq ri jrrg sulfhv,1 Ilqdoo|/ Pdqdvvh dqg Wxuulql ^5334` vwxg|wkh hhfwv rq lqhtxdolw|ri wudgh ehwzhhq lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv/ exw wkh|dgguhvv d glhuhqw txhvwlrq/ dv wkh|

vkrz krz/ lq wkh suhvhqfh ri khwhurjhqhlw|dprqj vnloohg zrunhuv/ wudgh fdq

9

(9)

vsxu zlwklq0jurxs zdjh glhuhqwldov1

Wkh sodq ri wkh sdshu lv dv iroorzv1 Vhfwlrq 5 looxvwudwhv wkh edvlf prgho/

dqdo|}hv wkh hhfwv ri lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh rq wkh vnloo suhplxp dqg vkrzv wkdw wkh lqwhuvhfwrudo prelolw|ri sk|vlfdo fdslwdo pd|h{dfhuedwh wkh vnloo0 eldvhg vfdoh hhfw1 Vhfwlrq 6 uhfrqflohv wkh uroh ri wudgh lq h{sodlqlqj zdjh lqhtxdolw|zlwk wkh pdlq vw|ol}hg idfwv1 Vhfwlrq 7 whvwv wkh lpsolfdwlrqv ri wkh prgho xvlqj gdwd iurp d sdqho ri frxqwulhv1 Vhfwlrq 8 frqfoxghv1

5 D Vlpsoh Prgho

514 Suhihuhqfhv

Frqvlghu d frxqwu|hqgrzhg zlwk M xqlwv ri vnloohg zrunhuv dqg u xqlwv ri xqvnloohg zrunhuv/ zkhuh wzr qdo jrrgv duh surgxfhg1 Frqvxphuv kdyh lghq0 wlfdo krprwhwlf suhihuhqfhv/ uhsuhvhqwhg e|wkh iroorzlqj FHV xwlolw|ixqfwlrq=

L ' k

Et , 

030

n Et  

030

l

030

c +4,

zkhuh t  dqg t , vwdqg iru wkh frqvxpswlrq ri qdo jrrgv  dqg ,/ uhvshfwlyho|/

dqg 0 :  lv wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq wkh wzr jrrgv1 Wkh uhodwlyh ghpdqg iru wkh wzr jrrgv lpsolhg e|+4, lv=

 

 , '

 t ,

t 

 *0

c +5,

zkhuh   dqg  , duh wkh qdo sulfhv ri jrrgv , dqg / uhvshfwlyho|1 Qrwh wkdw 0 :  lpsolhv wkdw d idoo lq wkh uhodwlyh sulfh lqgxfhv d pruh wkdq sursruwlrqdo lqfuhdvh lq uhodwlyh ghpdqg1 Wklv lv d fuxfldo dvvxpswlrq iru rxu uhvxowv1

515 Surgxfwlrq dqg Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh

Jrrgv  dqg , duh surgxfhg e|shuihfwo|frpshwlwlyh upv e|frvwohvvo|

dvvhpeolqj ?  E ' ,c  rzq0lqgxvwu|glhuhqwldwhg lqwhuphgldwh jrrgv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh dvvxph wkdw wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrqv iru qdo jrrgv wdnh wkh iroorzlqj FHV irup=

t  '

] ?



f +  E

j3j

_



j

j3

c +6,

:

(10)

zkhuh +  E lv wkh dprxqw ri wkh lqwhuphgldwh jrrg w|sh  xvhg lq wkh sur0 gxfwlrq ri jrrg / dqg j  lv wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq dprqj dq|wzr ydulhwlhv ri lqwhuphgldwhv xvhg lq vhfwru 1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj/ zh dvvxph wkdw j , : j  : 01 Lq zrugv/ wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq dprqj lqwhuphgldwhv lv juhdwhu lq vhfwru , wkdq lq vhfwru 1 Ixuwkhu/ wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq dprqj lqwhuphgldwhv xvhg lq hdfk vhfwru lv juhdwhu wkdq wkdw ehwzhhq wkh

qdo jrrgv1

Wkh sulfh iru qdo jrrg  +htxdo wr wkh dyhudjh frvw, lpsolhg e|+6, lv=

  '

] ?



f R  E 3j



_

 *E3j





c +7,

zkhuh R  E lv wkh sulfh ri wkh lqwhuphgldwh jrrg w|sh  xvhg lq wkh surgxf0 wlrq ri jrrg 1

Wkh wzr vhfwruv surgxflqj lqwhuphgldwhv duh prqrsrolvwlfdoo|frpshwlwlyh d oã Gl{lw dqg Vwljolw} ^4<::`1 Ilupv rshudwlqj lq hdfk vhfwru duh v|pphwulf1 Wkh surgxfwlrq ri hdfk lqwhuphgldwh lq vhfwru  lqyroyhv d {hg uhtxluhphqw/

8  / dqg d frqvwdqw pdujlqdo uhtxluhphqw/ S  / ri oderu1 Lq rughu wr nhhs wkh dojheud dv vlpsoh dv srvvleoh/ zh dvvxph wkdw wkh wzr vhfwruv duh h{wuhph lq whupv ri vnloo0lqwhqvlw|/ vr wkdw vhfwru  xvhv rqo|vnloohg zrunhuv M/ zkhuhdv vhfwru , xvhv rqo|xqvnloohg zrunhuv u1 Lq wkh Dsshqgl{/ zh jhqhudol}h rxu uhvxowv wr d frqwh{w zkhuh erwk vhfwruv xvh erwk w|shv ri oderu1 Khqfh/ wkh wrwdo frvw ixqfwlrq ri d vlqjoh ydulhw|surgxfhg lq vhfwru  lv=

A   ' E8  n S  +    c +8, zkhuh   dqg  , duh wkh zdjh udwh ri vnloohg dqg xqvnloohg zrunhuv/ uhvshf0 wlyho|1

Surw pd{lpl}dwlrq e|lqwhuphgldwh upv lq wkh wzr vhfwruv lpsolhv d pdunxs sulflqj uxoh=

R  E ' R  '



   j 



S    '   c +9,

zkhuh wkh odwwhu htxdolw|iroorzv iurp wkh fkrlfh ri xqlwv vxfk wkdw S  '

   j 





1 ; Khqfh/ zh kdyh=

R 

R , ' /c +:,

;

Wklv qrupdol}dwlrq lv lqqrfxrxv dv lw grhv qrw dhfw wkh hodvwlflw| ri wkh vnloo suhplxp wr d fkdqjh ri dq| sdudphwhuv +lw rqo| dhfwv lwv ohyho,1

;

(11)

zkhuh / '   * , lv wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Lqwxlwlyho|/ wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri dq|ydulhw|ri vhfwru  lqwhuphgldwhv lv dq lqfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh vnloo suhplxp/ vlqfh  lv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh uhodwlyh wr ,1

D iuhh0hqwu|frqglwlrq lpsolhv }hur surwv lq htxloleulxp=

Z  E ' Z  '

 +  j   8 



  ' f dqg khqfh=

+  ' 8  j  ' c +;,

zkhuh wkh odwwhu htxdolw|iroorzv iurp wkh fkrlfh ri xqlwv vxfk wkdw 8  ' *j  1 <

Htxdwlrqv +9, dqg +;, lpso|wkdw wkh h{suhvvlrqv iru   dqg t  vlpsoli|

wr=

t  ' ? 

j3j

+<,

  ' ? 

3j

R   +43,

Qrwh wkdw htxdwlrq +<, lpsolhv wkdw wkh hodvwlflw|ri t  zlwk uhvshfw wr ?  lv juhdwhu wkh orzhu lv j  1 Khqfh/ j  fdq eh lqwhusuhwhg dv dq lqyhuvh phdvxuh ri vhfwrudo vfdoh hfrqrplhv1 Rxu dvvxpswlrq j , : j  lv wkxv htxlydohqw wr dvvxplqj vwurqjhu lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv wr vfdoh lq vhfwru  wkdq lq vhfwru ,1

516 Jhqhudo Htxloleulxp

Frqglwlrqv iru ixoo hpsor|phqw ri vnloohg dqg xqvnloohg zrunhuv ghwhuplqh wkh qxpehu ri ydulhwlhv surgxfhg lq hdfk vhfwru=

? , ' u dqg ?  ' M +44,

Ohw w ' M*u eh wkh frxqwu|vkduh ri vnloohg zrunhuv lq wkh wrwdo zrunirufh/

zkhuh u ' M n u1 Htxdwlrqv +44, fdq wkhq eh uhzulwwhq dv iroorzv=

? , ' E  w u dqg ?  ' wu +45, Vxevwlwxwlqj +<,/ +43,/ +:, dqg +45, lqwr +5,/ dqg uhduudqjlqj jlyhv=

 wu 

"

E

j3"

j3

 / ' 

E  w u 

"

E

j,3"

j,3

  +46,

Wklv htxdwlrq ghqhv wkh vnloo0suhplxp1

<

Iru wkh sxusrvh ri wkh sdshu/ wklv qrupdol}dwlrq lv dovr lqqrfxrxv1

<

(12)

517 Wudgh dqg wkh Vnloo Suhplxp

Zh fdq qrz dqdo|}h wkh hhfwv ri wudgh lqwhjudwlrq rq wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Vlqfh zh irfxv rq htxloleuld zlwk idfwru sulfh htxdol}dwlrq +ISH,/ zh fdq rewdlq wkh iuhh wudgh sulfhv e| dsso|lqj wkh deryh uhvxowv wr d k|srwkhwlfdo lqwhjudwhg hfrqrp|zkrvh hqgrzphqwv duh wkh vxp ri wkrvh ri hdfk frxq0 wu|1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wrwdoo| glhuhqwldwlqj htxdwlrq +46, dqg xvlqj wkh lpsolflw ixqfwlrq wkhruhp/ zh fdq ghfrpsrvh wkh fkdqjh lq wkh vnloo suhplxp lqwr wkh iroorzlqj frpsrqhqwv=

_/

/ '

 E"  Ej ,  j  

" Ej    Ej ,  

 _u u 

 j   "

" Ej    n j ,  "

" Ej ,  

w

  w

 _w

w  +47, Htxdwlrq +47, vkrzv krz wkh vnloo suhplxp lv dhfwhg e|d yduldwlrq lq wkh vl}h ri wkh hfrqrp|+_u*u, dqg wkh uhodwlyh vfduflw|ri vnloohg zrunhuv +_w*w,1 Zh xvh htxdwlrq +47, wr uvw vwxg|wkh hhfw ri lqwud0lqgxvwu|wudgh rq zdjh lqhtxdolw|1 Dv vkrzq e| Nuxjpdq ^4<:<`/ lq d Gl{lw0Vwljolw} iudphzrun wudgh lqwhjudwlrq dprqj wzr lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv lv irupdoo|htxlydohqw wr dq lqfuhdvh lq frxqwu|vl}h/ u1 Jlyhq wkdw j , : j  : " : / htxdwlrq +47, lpsolhv wkdw wkh frh!flhqw ri _u u lv srvlwlyh/ dqg wkdw lwv pdjqlwxgh ghshqgv srvlwlyho|rq wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq " dqg wkh vhfwrudo dv|pphwulhv Ej ,  j   lq wkh ghjuhh ri uhwxuqv wr vfdoh1 Wkxv/ sxuho|lqwud0lqgxvwu|wudgh dprqj lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv/ riwhq suhvxphg wr kdyh qr glvwulexwlrqdo hhfwv/ wxuqv rxw wr eh vnloo0eldvhg1

Htxdwlrq +47, dovr vkrzv wkh hhfw ri lqwhu0lqgxvwu|wudgh rq zdjh lq0 htxdolw|1 Lqwhjudwlrq ehwzhhq glvvlplodu frxqwulhv vwloo lpsolhv dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh ryhudoo vl}h ri wkh hfrqrp|/ exw zloo dovr fkdqjh wkh shufhlyhg uhodwlyh vfduflw|ri idfwruv1 Vlqfh wkh frh!flhqw ri _w*w lv qhjdwlyh/ dq lqfuhdvh +idoo, lq wkh uhodwlyh vxsso|ri vnloohg oderu kdv wkh hhfw ri uhgxflqj +lqfuhdvlqj, wkh vnloo suhplxp1 43 Wklv hhfw zrunv wkurxjk wkh zhoo0nqrzq phfkdqlfv ri wkh Khfnvfkhu0Rkolq0Vdpxhovrq wkhruhp/ dqg fdq plwljdwh ru h{dfhuedwh wkh xszdug suhvvxuh rq wkh vnloo suhplxp gxh wr wkh pdunhw vl}h hhfw1

Wr vhh zkdw gulyhv wkh vnloo eldv ri wudgh qrwh/ iurp +43,/ wkdw dq htxl0 sursruwlrqdo lqfuhdvh lq ? , dqg ?  orzhuv wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrg/ vlqfh lw hqmr|v vwurqjhu hfrqrplhv ri vfdoh1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw/ e| h{0 sdqglqj pdunhw vl}h/ lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh udlvhv wkh uhodwlyh surgxfwlylw|ri

43

Qrwh wkdw wkh frh!flhqw ri g@ lv qhjdwlyho| dhfwhg e| wkh hodvwlflw| ri vxevwlwxwlrq

/ dv d kljk vxevwlwxwdelolw| lpsolhv d zhdn sulfh hhfw ri dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh uhodwlyh vxsso|1

43

(13)

wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrg dqg lv wkxv irupdoo|htxlydohqw wr vnloo0eldvhg whfk0 qlfdo fkdqjh1 Ixuwkhu/ vlqfh wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq frqvxpswlrq lv juhdwhu wkdq rqh/ wkh vkduh ri wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrg lq wrwdo rxwsxw udlvhv diwhu wudgh lqwhjudwlrq1 Lw iroorzv wkdw wudgh lqfuhdvhv wkh vkduh ri vnloohg oderu lq wrwdo lqfrph dqg khqfh wkh vnloo suhplxp1

518 Lqwurgxflqj Sk|vlfdo Fdslwdo

Zh qrz vkrz krz wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri sk|vlfdo fdslwdo/ dvvxphg wr eh preloh dfurvv vhfwruv/ h{dfhuedwhv wkh vnloo0eldvhg vfdoh hhfw ri wudgh1 Frqvlghu wkhq d wklug surgxfwlrq idfwru/ sk|vlfdo fdslwdo +g,1 Wkh wrwdo frvw ixqfwlrq ri d vlqjoh ydulhw|surgxfhg lq vhfwru  qrz ehfrphv=

A   ' E8  n S  +  o   3  c +48, zkhuh o lv wkh uhqwdo udwh dqg  lv wkh vkduh ri fdslwdo lq vhfwru  wrwdo frvw1 Iru vlpsolflw|/ dqg zlwkrxw orvv ri jhqhudolw|/ htxdwlrq +48, frqvlghuv wkh nqlih0hgjh fdvh zkhuh fdslwdo lqwhqvlw|lv wkh vdph lq erwk vhfwruv + '   '

 , ,1 Wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri vnloo0lqwhqvlyh ydulhwlhv lpsolhg e|+48, dqg surw pd{lpl}dwlrq ehfrphv=

R 

R , ' o   3 

o   3 , ' / 3  +49,

Htxdwlrqv +5,/ +<, dqg +43, duh xqfkdqjhg> wrjhwkhu zlwk +49, wkh|lpso|=

? 

"

E

j3"j3

 / 3 ' ? ,

"

E

j,3"j,3

  +4:, Wkh ghpdqg iru hdfk idfwru fdq eh irxqg xvlqj Vkhskdug*v ohppd rq wkh wrwdo frvw ixqfwlrq +48,1 Diwhu qrwlqj wkdw Y Y



o   3  ' E  o   3  dqg

Yo Y o    3 ' o 3   3 / zh kdyh wkdw wkh frqglwlrqv iru ixoo hpsor|phqw ri sk|vlfdo fdslwdo/ vnloohg dqg xqvnloohg zrunhuv duh jlyhq e|=

g ' o 3   3 ?  E8  n S  +   n o 3  , 3 ? , E8 , n S , + ,  +4;, M ' E  o    3 ?  E8  n S  +  

u ' E  o   , 3 ? , E8 , n S , + , 

44

(14)

Diwhu vhwwlqj  , htxdo wr wkh qxphudluh/ zh fdq xvh +4;, wr h{suhvv ?  dqg

? , dv ixqfwlrqv ri wkh vnloo suhplxp dqg wkh h{rjhqrxv yduldeohv=

?  ' M/  E   3



 u n M/

g

 3

dqg ? , ' u E   3



 u n M/

g

 3

 +4<, Vxevwlwxwlqj +4<, lqwr +4:, dqg vroylqj iru / jlyhv wkh htxloleulxp vnloo suh0 plxp1 Glhuhqwldwlqj zlwk uhvshfw wr // g dqg u ' M n u/ dqg xvlqj wkh lpsolflw ixqfwlrq wkhruhp/ zh qg wkh hodvwlflw|ri wkh vnloo suhplxp wr d fkdqjh lq wkh vfdoh ri wkh hfrqrp|wr eh=

_/

/ '

k  _g g n E   _u u l

E"3Ej

,

3j





"Ej



3Ej

,

3

   k

"3

" 

3wnw/

 j



E3w

j



3 n j j

,,

w/ lc +53, zkhuh djdlq w ' M*u lv wkh vkduh ri vnloohg zrunhuv lq wkh wrwdo oderu irufh1 44 Qrwh wkdw wkh frh!flhqw pxowlso|lqj wkh vfdoh yduldeohv lq wkh vtxduh eudfnhw ri wkh qxphudwru lv htxdo wr wkh vfdoh hodvwlflw|lq +47,1 Exw qrz wkh ghqrp0 lqdwru lq +53, lv ohvv wkdq rqh dqg ghfuhdvlqj lq 1 45 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh hhfw rq wkh vnloo suhplxp ri wudgh lqwhjudwlrq dprqj wzr lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv/ l1h1/ d grxeolqj ri erwk g dqg u/ lv qrz juhdwhu/ wkh juhdwhu lv wkh vkduh  ri fdsl0 wdo lq wkh wrwdo frvw1 Ixuwkhu/ htxdwlrq +53, vkrzv wkdw fdslwdo dffxpxodwlrq dqg fdslwdo lq rzv whqg wr lqfuhdvh wkh vnloo suhplxp/ dv wkh|frqwulexwh wr h{sdqg wkh vfdoh ri wkh hfrqrp|1 Wklv uhvxow lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh olwhudwxuh grfxphqwlqj fdslwdo0vnloo frpsohphqwdulwlhv +vhh Nuxvhoo hw do1 ^5333`/ dprqj rwkhuv,1 Wr vhh zk|fdslwdo h{dfhuedwhv wkh hhfwv ri wudgh lqwhjudwlrq rq wkh vnloo suhplxp/ lw lv lqvwuxfwlyh wr vwxg|wkh fkdqjh lq wkh doorfdwlrq ri fdslwdo ehwzhhq wkh wzr vhfwruv= 46

g  *? 

g , *? , ' / 3  +54,

44

Wkh hodvwlflw| wr d fkdqjh lq wkh uhodwlyh vnloo0hqgrzphqw  lv khuh rplwwhg/ wkrxjk vwudljkwiruzdug wr fdofxodwh/ ehfdxvh zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq vkrzlqj krz fdslwdo uhdoorfdwlrq dhfwv wkh vfdoh hhfw1

45

Qrwh wkdw/ dvvxplqj ghfuhdvlqj pdujlqdo uhwxuqv wr fdslwdo lq erwk vhfwruv/ zh kdyh



l4l

? 4 iru l @ k> o1 Wklv hqvxuhv wkdw wkh ghqrplqdwru ri +53, lv srvlwlyh1

46

Wr qg +54,/ qrwh wkdw N

l

u @ S

l

\

l

wkhq xvh +<,/ +43, dqg +49,1

45

(15)

Htxdwlrq +54, vkrzv wkdw wkh wudgh0lqgxfhg ulvh lq wkh vnloo suhplxp lv dvvr0 fldwhg zlwk d uhodwlyh lqfuhdvh lq fdslwdo lqwhqvlw|ri upv rshudwlqj lq vhfwru

1 Wkh uhdvrq lv wkdw/ e|h{sdqglqj pdunhw vl}h/ wudgh lqwhjudwlrq lqfuhdvhv wkh uhodwlyh surgxfwlylw|ri wkh uhvrxufhv xvhg lq wkh vhfwru hqmr|lqj vwurqjhu hfrqrplhv ri vfdoh1 Khqfh/ wudgh lpsolhv dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh uhodwlyh pdujlqdo surgxfwlylw|ri fdslwdo lq vhfwru 1 Vlqfh lq htxloleulxp wkh uhqwdo udwh pxvw eh htxdol}hg ehwzhhq wkh wzr vhfwruv/ wkh rqo|zd|ri uhvwrulqj wkh htxdo0 lw|diwhu wudgh lqwhjudwlrq lv e|vkliwlqj fdslwdo rxw ri wkh ohvv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwru dqg lqwr wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwru1 Dv d frqvhtxhqfh/ wkh hqgrzphqw ri fdslwdo shu zrunhu ulvhv iru wkh vnloohg dqg idoov iru wkh xqvnloohg/ zklfk ixuwkhu lqfuhdvhv zdjh lqhtxdolw|1

D vlplodu phfkdqlvp lv dw zrun lq Fdvhool ^4<<<`/ zkhuh d vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo uhyroxwlrq lqgxfhv d uhdoorfdwlrq ri fdslwdo wrzdug wkh vnloo0 lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv1 Kh dovr surylghv hylghqfh ri d vxevwdqwldo lqfuhdvh lq wkh XV vhfwrudo glvshuvlrq ri fdslwdo lqwhqvlwlhv vlqfh wkh plg0vhyhqwlhv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/

kh grfxphqwv wkdw gxulqj wkh shulrg ri ulvlqj zdjh lqhtxdolw|fdslwdo hz wr vnloo0lqwhqvlyh lqgxvwulhv1 Rxu frqwulexwlrq lv wr vkrz wkdw vxfk d uhdoorfdwlrq ri fdslwdo fdq eh dovr gxh wr wudgh lqwhjudwlrq1 Pruh lpsruwdqw/ wklv vhfwlrq vkrzv wkdw fdslwdo prelolw|h{dfhuedwhv wkh hhfwv ri wudgh lqwhjudwlrq rq wkh vnloo suhplxp dqg wkhuhiruh vwuhqjwkhqv wkh txdqwlwdwlyh uhohydqfh ri rxu dqdo|vlv1

6 Wudgh dqg Zdjhv= Uhfrqvlghulqj wkh Idfwv

Lq wklv vhfwlrq/ zh vkrz krz rxu prgho fdq uhfrqfloh dq lpsruwdqw uroh ri wudgh lq h{sodlqlqj wkh ulvlqj vnloo suhpld zlwk wkh pdlq vw|ol}hg idfwv1 Wkh

uvw fulwltxh wr wudglwlrqdo wudgh0edvhg h{sodqdwlrqv lv rq wkhlu txdqwlwdwlyh uhohydqfh= Qruwk0Vrxwk wudgh rzv vlpso|gr qrw vhhp wr eh odujh hqrxjk wr dhfw vljqlfdqwo|zdjh suhpld1 Frpsduhg wr wkh Khfnvfkhu0Rkolq dssurdfk/

rxu prgho lv ohvv h{srvhg wr wklv fulwlflvp dv lw vkrzv wkdw wkh hqwluh yroxph ri zruog wudgh pdwwhuv iru lqhtxdolw|dqg qrw lwv qhw idfwru frqwhqw rqo|1 Lw uhpdlqv wr eh suryhq wkdw wkh wudgh0lqgxfhg vnloo0eldvhg vfdoh hhfw kdv d vljqlfdqw pdjqlwxgh1 Wr gr vr/ zh frpsxwh wkh vfdoh hodvwlflw|ri wkh vnloo suhplxp jlyhq e|htxdwlrq +53,1 Zh vhohfw sdudphwhuv iru / "/ j  dqg j , dv iroorzv1 D frqyhqwlrqdo ydoxh iru iru wkh fdslwdo vkduh/ / lv * 1 Lq wkh prgho zh xvh/ wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq jrrgv ri glhuhqw vnloo0lqwhqvlw|lv wkh vdph dv wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq vnloohg

46

(16)

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

H 

H 

S c a le el asti city of th e sk ill pr em iu m

V

h

Iljxuh 5= Vfdoh hodvwlflw|ri wkh vnloo suhplxp

dqg xqvnloohg zrunhuv1 Dv douhdg|phqwlrqhg lq wkh Lqwurgxfwlrq/ hvwlpdwhv ri wkh odwwhu hodvwlflw|duh lq wkh udqjh +D 0 2,1 Zh wkhuhiruh fkrrvh wkh ehqfkpdun ydoxhv ri D dqg 21 Iru wkh uhpdlqlqj sdudphwhuv/ zh uhihu wr Dqwzhlohu dqg Wuh hu ^5333` zkr qg wkdw vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv kdyh dq dyhudjh vfdoh hodvwlflw|durxqg 2 dqg wkdw wudglwlrqdo ohvv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv vkrz qr ghsduwxuh iurp frqvwdqw uhwxuqv1 Zh wkhuhiruh vhw j , ' "

dqg ohw j  ydu| 1 Wr kdyh d vhqvh ri wkh hfrqrplf phdqlqj ri j  / qrwh wkdw lw fdq eh lqwhusuhwhg dv dq lqyhuvh lqgh{ ri wkh ghjuhh ri lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv>

lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq +<, lpsolhv wkdw d vfdoh hodvwlflw|ri rxwsxw lq wkh udqjh iurp 414 wr 415 fruuhvsrqgv wr d j  ehwzhhq 44 dqg 91

Wkh uhvxow lv ghslfwhg lq Iljxuh 5/ zklfk vkrzv wkh vfdoh hodvwlflw|ri wkh vnloo suhplxp +rq wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv, dv d ixqfwlrq ri j  +rq wkh krul0 }rqwdo d{lv,1 47 Wkh eurnhq olqh fruuhvsrqgv wr " ' 2/ zkhuhdv wkh vrolg rqh uhsuhvhqwv wkh fdvh zlwk " ' D1 Iljxuh 5 fdq eh xvhg wr shuirup vlpsoh

47

Qrwh iurp htxdwlrq +53, wkdw g$@$ dovr ghshqgv rq  dqg $1 Qxphulfdo vlpxodwlrqv vkrz wkhlu hhfw wr eh qhjoljleoh1 Wr gudz Iljxuh 5/ zh kdyh xvhg ydoxhv ri 3=68 dqg 4=7/

uhvshfwlyho|1

47

(17)

h{shulphqwv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ zlwk j  ' S +d ydoxh riwhq xvhg lq wudgh prghov wr ghvfuleh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwruv dqg frqvlvwhqw zlwk vhyhudo vwxglhv 48 , dqg

" ' D/ wkh judsk vkrzv wkdw wkh hodvwlflw|ri wkh vnloo suhplxp wr wkh vfdoh ri wkh hfrqrp|lpsolhg e|wkh prgho lv durxqg ffH1 Lq wklv fdvh/ wudgh lqwhjudwlrq ehwzhhq wzr lghqwlfdo frxqwulhv zrxog lpso|d HI lqfuhdvh lq wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Pruh lq jhqhudo/ wkh lpsruwdqw ohvvrq iurp Iljxuh 5 lv wkdw hyhq vpdoo dv|pphwulhv lq wkh vhfwrudo uhwxuqv wr vfdoh duh hqrxjk wr surgxfh d vljqlfdqw hhfw ri pdunhw vl}h rq zdjh lqhtxdolw|1 Wklv vlpsoh txdqwlfd0 wlrq vxjjhvwv wkdw hpslulfdo vwxglhv irfxvlqj rq Qruwk0Vrxwk wudgh pljkw eh plvvlqj dq lpsruwdqw phfkdqlvp wkurxjk zklfk joredol}dwlrq hqkdqfhv vnloo suhpld1

D vhfrqg revhuydwlrq zklfk lv dw rggv zlwk wudgh prghov lv wkdw frpphu0 fldo olehudol}dwlrqv lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv vhhp wr eh iroorzhg e|lqfuhdvhv lq zdjh suhlpd +h1j1/ Kdqvrq dqg Kduulvrq ^4<<<` dqg Ureelqv ^4<<9`,1 Rxu prgho fdq udwlrqdol}h wklv idfw li wkh vnloo0eldvhg vfdoh hhfw lv vwurqj hqrxjk wr ryhufrph wkh idfwru sursruwlrqv hhfw lq vnloo0vfdufh frxqwulhv1 Wr vhh zkhwkhu wklv lv pruh wkdq mxvw d wkhruhwlfdo srvvlelolw|/ zh xvh rxu prgho wr vwxg|wkh hslvrgh ri wudgh lqwhjudwlrq ehwzhhq Ph{lfr dqg wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv1 Wklv fdvh lv ri sduwlfxodu lqwhuhvw iru sulru wr 4<;8 Ph{lfr frxog eh frqvlghuhg d forvhg hfrqrp|gxh wr khdy|srolflhv ri wudgh surwhfwlrq1 Lq 4<;8/ Ph{lfr dqqrxqfhg lwv ghflvlrq wr mrlq wkh JDWW dqg xqghuwrrn pdmru uhirupv ohdglqj wr d uhgxfwlrq lq wdulv e|78( dqg lpsruw olfhqvhv e|pruh wkdq :8( zlwklq wkuhh |hduv1 Gxulqj wkh vdph shulrg/ wkh vnloo suhplxp/

vwduwlqj iurp d ydoxh ri He/ urvh e|dw ohdvw 4:(1 Wkh Ph{lfdq h{shul0 hqfh lv dovr lqwhuhvwlqj ehfdxvh wkh pdmru wudgh sduwqhu ri wklv frxqwu|lv wkh vnloo0dexqgdqw Xqlwhg Vwdwhv1 Zh wkhq shuirup wkh iroorzlqj wkrxjkw h{shu0 lphqw1 Dvvxplqj wkdw Ph{lfr zdv lq dxwdun|lq 4<;8/ zh xvh rxu prgho wr frpsxwh wkh hhfw ri d frpsohwh dqg lqvwdqwdqhrxv wudgh lqwhjudwlrq zlwk wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv1 Xvlqj gdwd 49 iru wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru dqg wkh vkduh ri zklwh0froodu zrunhuv dv d phdvxuh ri vnloohg oderu/ zh kdyh wkdw d pryh iurp dxwdun|wr wkh lqwhjudwhg htxloleulxp lpsolhv d eH irog lqfuhdvh lq wkh wrwdo oderu irufh/ d f irog lqfuhdvh lq wkh djjuhjdwh fdslwdo vwrfn dqg d 2HeI lqfuhdvh lq wkh vkduh ri zklwh0froodu zrunhuv1 Xvlqj wkhvh qxpehuv

48

Vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Ihhqvwud ^4<<7` dqg Odl dqg Wuh hu ^4<<<`1

49

Ehupdq/ Erxqg dqg Julolfkhv ^4<<7` surylgh wkh vkduh ri XV zklwh0froodu zrunhuv1 Wkh htxlydohqw vkduh iru Ph{lfr lv uhsruwhg lq Kdqvrq dqg Kduulvrq ^4<<<`1 Wkh oderu irufh lq pdqxidfwxulqj lv wdnhq iurp wkh Zruog Ghyhorsphqw Lqglfdwruv1 Wkh wrwdo fdslwdo vwrfn lv frpsxwhg iurp wkh Shqq Zruog Wdeohv1

48

(18)

wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh deryh phqwlrqhg sdudphwhu ydoxhv + ' * / " ' D/

j  ' S/ j , ' ",/ rxu prgho suhglfwv wkh iroorzlqj fkdqjh lq wkh Ph{lfdq vnloo suhplxp=

_/

/ ' nfeb  f2. ' f22

zkhuh wkh uvw qxpehu uhsuhvhqwv wkh srvlwlyh vfdoh hhfw dqg wkh vhfrqg qxpehu wkh qhjdwlyh idfwru sursruwlrqv hhfw1 Ryhudoo/ wudgh rshqlqj lq wkh vnloo0vfdufh Ph{lfr fdq ohdg wr dq lpsuhvvlyh 22I lqfuhdvh ri wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Zh uhfrjql}h wkdw wklv qxpehu lv olnho|wr eh dq ryhu0hvwlpdwlrq/

gxh wr wkh h{wuhph qdwxuh ri rxu h{huflvh> vwloo/ lwv pdjqlwxgh vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh pdunhw vl}h hhfw fdq sod|d vljqlfdqw uroh lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv wkdw h{shulhqfh gudvwlf wudgh olehudol}dwlrqv1

Wkh wklug sx}}olqj idfw wkdw d vdwlvidfwru|prgho vkrxog h{sodlq lv wkh hyroxwlrq ri uhodwlyh sulfhv= wkrxjk wkh hpslulfdo qglqjv duh vrphwlphv pl{hg/ wkh|whqg wr vxjjhvw d ghfolqh lq wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrgv gxulqj wkh shulrg ri ulvlqj vnloo suhpld1 Rxu prgho fdq khos xqghuvwdqg wklv hylghqfh/ dv lw euhdnv wkh vlpsoh srvlwlyh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq jrrg sulfhv dqg idfwru sulfhv ri vwdqgdug wudgh wkhru|1 Lq idfw/ rq wkh rqh kdqg/ d wudgh0lqgxfhg h{sdqvlrq lq pdunhw vl}h orzhuv wkh uhodwlyh qdo sulfh ri wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrg=

 

 , ' 5 7 ?

j,3j,

,

? 

j3j

6 8

*0



Rxu dvvxpswlrq j , : j  lpsolhv wkdw d odujhu pdunhw lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk d orzhu uhodwlyh sulfh ri wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh qdo jrrg= dv wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhf0 wru lv fkdudfwhul}hg e|vwurqjhu uhwxuqv wr vfdoh/ lwv rxwsxw jurzv pruh diwhu dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh pdunhw vl}h dqg wklv ghsuhvvhv lwv uhodwlyh sulfh1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ wudgh lqfuhdvhv wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri hdfk ydulhw|ri lqwhuphgldwhv lq wkh vnloo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwru/ wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh vnloo suhplxp/ ehfdxvh ri wkh vwurqjhu surgxfwlylw|jdlq=

R 

R , ' / 3 

Wkhvh frqwudvwlqj lpsolfdwlrqv frqfhuqlqj wkh hhfwv ri lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh rq wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri jrrgv pd|vkhg oljkw rq wkh pl{hg uhvxowv hphujlqj

49

(19)

iurp wkh glhuhqw phwkrgrorjlhv dqg ohyhov ri vhfwrudo djjuhjdwlrq xvhg lq hpslulfdo vwxglhv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ lw lv vxjjhvwlyh wkdw Odzuhqfh dqg Vodxjkwhu

^4<<6` vkrz d ghfolqh lq wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrgv xvlqj d kljk ohyho ri djjuhjdwlrq/ zkhuhdv Nuxhjhu ^4<<:` qgv dq lqfuhdvh xvlqj kljko|

glvdjjuhjdwhg gdwd1

7 Hpslulfdo Hylghqfh

714 Wkh Ghwhuplqdqwv ri Vnloo0Suhpld lq d Sdqho ri Frxqwulhv

Zh qrz zdqw wr whvw vrph hpslulfdo lpsolfdwlrqv ri rxu prgho e|frqvlghulqj d sdqho ri frxqwulhv revhuyhg lq wkh |hduv 4<;3 dqg 4<<31 Dv vkrzq lq vhfwlrq 5/ lq wkh fdvh ri frpsohwh lqwhjudwlrq dqg ISH htxloleuld/ wkh vnloo suhplxp grhv qrw ghshqg rq frxqwu|fkdudfwhulvwlfv/ exw rqo|rq wkh vl}h dqg wkh hqgrzphqw ri wkh zruog hfrqrp|1 Pruh jhqhudoo|/ lq wkh suhvhqfh ri vrph nlqg ri wudgh eduulhuv/ rxu prgho vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh vnloo suhplxp lv kljkhu/ wkh kljkhu lv d frxqwu|*v rshqqhvv wr wudgh/ wkh juhdwhu lwv vl}h dqg wkh orzhu wkh vkduh ri vnloohg zrunhuv lq lwv oderu irufh1 Zh kdyh wkhuhiruh froohfwhg gdwd rq vnloo0suhpld/ wudgh rshqqhvv/ phdvxuhv ri frxqwu|vl}h dqg vnloo hqgrzphqwv1 Xqiruwxqdwho|/ lqwhuqdwlrqdo gdwd rq zdjhv iru glhuhqw fdwhjrulhv ri zrunhuv duh gl!fxow wr qg1 Iroorzlqj rwkhu hpslulfdo vwxglhv/ 4:

zh kdyh xvhg wkh X1Q1 Jhqhudo Lqgxvwuldo Vwdwlvwlfv gdwdedvh wr frpsxwh wkh vnloo suhplxp dv wkh udwlr ri qrqsurgxfwlrq wr surgxfwlrq +rshudwlyhv, zdjh lq wrwdo pdqxidfwxulqj1 Gxh wr wkh olplwdwlrqv ri wklv gdwdvhw/ rxu vdpsoh frpsulvhv 68 frxqwulhv 4; rqo|/ dw ydulrxv vwdjhv ri hfrqrplf ghyhorsphqw +iurp Hwklrsld wr wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv/ zlwk dq dyhudjh uhdo JGS shu fdslwd htxdo wr 74( ri wkh XV ydoxh lq 4<<3,1 Zh kdyh wkhq uhjuhvvhg wkh orj+vnloo suhplxp, rq orj+rshqqhvv,/ phdvxuhg dv wkh udwlr ri lpsruwv soxv h{sruwv wr JGS/ orj+oderu irufh, dqg orj+vhfrqgdu|vfkrrolqj,/ phdvxuhg dv wkh vkduh ri

4:

Iru dq h{dpsoh/ vhh Ehupdq hw do1 ^4<<;`1

4;

Wkh olvw ri frxqwulhv lv wkh iroorzlqj= Dxvwudold/ Dxvwuld/ Edqjodghvk/ Fdqdgd/ Fkloh/

Frorpeld/ F|suxv/ F}hfkrvorydnld/ Ghqpdun/ Hj|sw/ Hwklrsld/ Ilqodqg/ Jhupdq| +Zhvw,/

Juhhfh/ Jxdwhpdod/ Kxqjdu|/ Lqgld/ Luhodqg/ Lwdo|/ Mdsdq/ Nruhd +Uhsxeolf,/ Pdod|vld/

Pdowd/ Ph{lfr/ Vsdlq/ Vzhghq/ Wdq}dqld/ Sdnlvwdq/ Sdqdpd/ Shux/ Sklolsslqhv/ Wxunh|/

Xqlwhg Nlqjgrp/ Xqlwhg Vwdwhv ri Dphulfd/ Xuxjxd|1 Qrwh= wkh vnloo suhplxp iru Ph{lfr jrhv edfn wr 4<;9 rqo|1 Gxh wr gdwd dydlodelolw|/ wkh rwkhu Ph{lfdq revhuydwlrqv iru 4<;3 duh uhsodfhg e| wkrvh lq |hdu 4<;81

4:

(20)

zrunhuv zlwk vhfrqgdu|hgxfdwlrq1 4< Wkh pdlq uhvxowv duh uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 41

Wdeoh41 Vnloo suhpld dfurvv frxqwulhv

Yduldeoh Srrohg ROV VXU Udqgrp0hhfwv

orj+Rshqqhvv, 31749 3169; 31653

+31443, +313::, +313:<,

orj+Oderu irufh, 313<4 313;8 31396

+31364, +3135:, +3135<, orj+Vhfrqgdu| vfkrrolqj, 031547 031497 031535

+31384, +31376, +31383,

Gxpp|= Odwlq Dphulfd 31794 31789 31757

+3139:, +313:<, +313;<,

Gxpp|= 4<<3 313;9  313;:

+31363, +3135<,

Qxpehu ri revhuydwlrqv :3 68/ 68 :3

U0vtxduhg 318; 3184/ 318< 318:

Qrwhv= wkh ghshqghqw yduldeoh lv orj+Vnloo suhplxp,1 Vwdqgdug huuruv duh uh0 sruwhg lq sduhqwkhvhv1 Lq wkh Srrohg ROV uhjuhvvlrq/ urexvw vwdqgdug huuruv duh fdofxodwhg lq wkh suhvhqfh ri uhshdwhg revhuydwlrqv rq lqglylgxdo frxqwulhv1 Wkh U0vtxduhg ydoxhv iru wkh VXU uhihu wr wkh wzr shulrgv/ 4<;3 dqg 4<<3/

uhvshfwlyho|1

Lq wkh uvw froxpq/ hvwlpdwlrq lv e|srrohg ROV zlwk d {hg wlph hhfw dqg d gxpp|iru Odwlq Dphulfd1 Wkh gxpp|iru 4<<3/ zklfk pd|fdswxuh wkh hhfw ri vnloo0eldvhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh/ lv srvlwlyh dqg kljko|vljqlfdqw1 Wkh wkuhh yduldeohv ri lqwhuhvw kdyh wkh h{shfwhg vljq dqg duh kljko|vljql0 fdqw1 Fhwhulv sdulexv/ d grxeolqj ri wkh ghjuhh ri rshqqhvv lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk d 74( lqfuhdvh lq wkh vnloo suhplxp> d grxeolqj ri wkh vfdoh lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk d <( lqfuhdvh lq wkh vnloo suhplxp/ 53 dqg d grxeolqj lq wkh vkduh ri zrunhuv

4<

Gdwd rq rshqqhvv duh iurp wkh Shqq Zruog Wdeohv +Pdun 819,1 Oderu Irufh lv wdnhq iurp wkh Zruog Ghyhorsphqw Lqglfdwruv +Zruog Edqn,1 Wkh hgxfdwlrqdo dwwdlqphqw ri wkh wrwdo srsxodwlrq djhg 58 dqg deryh lv surylghg e| Eduur0Ohh +Vfkrro dwwdlqphqw iru Hwklrsld lv dydlodeoh iru 4<<8 rqo|1 Lq wkh fdvh ri Wdq}dqld/ vfkrro dwwdlqphqw lv sur{lhg e| wkh dyhudjh iru vxe0Vdkdudq frxqwulhv,1

53

Wklv hvwlpdwhg ydoxh iru wkh vfdoh hodvwlflw| ri wkh vnloo suhplxp lv lq olqh zlwk wkh txdqwlwdwlyh lpsolfdwlrqv ri wkh prgho glvfxvvhg lq Vhfwlrq 61

4;

(21)

zlwk vhfrqgdu|hgxfdwlrq ohdgv wr d 54( idoo lq wkh vnloo suhplxp1 Ilqdoo|/

qrwh wkdw wkh gxpp|iru Odwlq Dphulfd lv srvlwlyh/ kljko|vljqlfdqw dqg ri yhu|odujh pdjqlwxgh= ehlqj d Odwlq Dphulfdq frxqwu|lpsolhv/ fhwhulv sdulexv/ d kljkhu vnloo suhplxp e|pruh wkdq 73(1 Wklv uhvxow lv lq olqh zlwk rwkhu vwxglhv rq wkh ghwhuplqdqwv ri lqhtxdolw|/ zkhuh d gxpp| iru Odwlq Dphulfd jhqhudoo|ihdwxuhv surplqhqwo|1 54

Iljxuh 6 dqg 7 surylgh d judsklfdo uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri wkh sduwldo uhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh vnloo suhplxp dqg rxu wzr vfdoh yduldeohv/ orj+rshqqhvv, dqg orj+oderu irufh,1 Wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv uhsruwv wkh ydoxh ri wkh vnloo suhplxp diwhu owhulqj rxw wkh hvwlpdwhg hhfwv ri wkh yduldeohv rwkhu wkdq rshqqhvv +Iljxuh 6,/ dqg oderu irufh +Iljxuh 7,1 Orrnlqj dw wkh sorwv/ lw lv dssduhqw wkdw wkh uhjuhvvlrq olqhv duh qrw gulyhq e|rxwolhuv dqg wkdw wkh|w zhoo hyhq zlgho|glhuhqw revhuydwlrqv +vxfk dv wkrvh iru Lqgld dqg Pdowd,1 55

Lq wkh vhfrqg froxpq/ hvwlpdwlrq lv e|wkh vhhplqjo|0xquhodwhg +VXU, whfkqltxh1 Wkh frh!flhqwv ri wkh yduldeohv ri lqwhuhvw kdyh wkh h{shfwhg vljq/ duh kljko|vljqlfdqw dqg vlplodu lq pdjqlwxgh wr wkh suhylrxv hvwlpd0 wlrq1 Zh kdyh dovr whvwhg zkhwkhu wkhvh frh!flhqwv vkliw ryhu wlph1 Wkh v|vwhp hvwlpdwhg e| VXU zdv h{whqghg wr doorz iru glhuhqw frh!flhqwv rq wkh h{sodqdwru|yduldeohv lq wkh wzr shulrgv1 D Zdog whvw iru doo vhwv ri frh!flhqwv/ hlwkhu wdnhq lqglylgxdoo|ru mrlqwo|/ qgv qr vljqlfdqw yduldwlrq ryhu wlph/ vxjjhvwlqj sdudphwhu vwdelolw|lq wkh shulrg ri dqdo|vlv1

Wr ehwwhu h{sorlw wkh olplwhg wlph yduldwlrq lq wkh vdpsoh/ wkh wklug fro0 xpq uhsruwv udqgrp0hhfwv JOV hvwlpdwhv1 Rqfh pruh/ doo wkh uhjuhvvruv duh kljko|vljqlfdqw dqg ri wkh vdph rughu ri pdjqlwxgh/ dowkrxjk wkh fr0 h!flhqwv duh vrphzkdw orzhu wkdq wkh suhylrxv hvwlpdwhv1 Wkh Kdxvpdq vshflfdwlrq whvw lv qrw vljqlfdqw/ zlwk d s0ydoxh ri 31456/ vxjjhvwlqj wkdw lqglylgxdo hhfwv duh xqfruuhodwhg zlwk wkh uhjuhvvruv/ dqg khqfh wkh dssur0 suldwhqhvv ri wkh udqgrp0hhfwv hvwlpdwru1

Ilqdoo|/ Wdeoh 5 vkrzv wkdw uhvxowv duh urexvw wr wkh vshflfdwlrq ri wkh

54

Vhh/ iru lqvwdqfh/ Eduur ^5333`1 Zh kdyh dovr lqfoxghg frqwlqhqw gxpplhv iru Hxursh/

Diulfd/ Dvld dqg Qruwk Dphulfd1 Wkh| wxuq rxw qrw vljqlfdqw/ hlwkhu lqglylgxdoo| ru mrlqwo|1

55

Lq rughu wr whvw pruh uljrurxvo| iru wkh suhvhqfh ri lq xhqwldo revhuydwlrqv/ zh kdyh frpsxwhg wkh giehwdv iru wkh frh!flhqwv ri wkh vfdoh yduldeohv +wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh uhjuhvvlrq frh!flhqwv zkhq hdfk revhuydwlrq lv lqfoxghg dqg h{foxghg/ vfdohg e| wkh vwdqgdug huuru ri wkh frh!flhqwv,1 Zh kdyh irxqg wkdw rqo| rqh revhuydwlrq +Pdod|vld lq 4<<3, vkliwv wkh hvwlpdwhv e| pruh wkdq 318 vwdqgdug huuruv1 Rplwwlqj wklv revhuydwlrq iurp wkh vdpsoh ohdyhv wkh vljqlfdqfh ri rxu uhvxowv xqfkdqjhg1

4<

(22)

log(Skill premium), unexplained part

l o g ( O p e n n e s s )

3 4 5

0 . 5 1 1 . 5

I N D I N D

T U R J A P T A N U S A U S A

B A N M E X

P E R B A N

J A P C O L

M E X E T H

S P A A U S E T HA U S

P A K C O L U R U

P A K S P AT A N

ITA

P E R T U R G U A

U R U

ITA G U A G R E F I N C H I

C A N U K P H I

U K G E R

G R E C A N

G E R S W E

H U N S W E P H I

K O R E G Y D E N

C H I

D E N F I N

C Z E C Z E

P A N E G Y

K O R A U T A U T

H U N P A N

C Y P C Y P

I R E M Y S

I R E

M Y S

M L T M L T

Iljxuh 6= Vnloo suhpld dqg wudgh rshqqhvv

uhjuhvvlrq htxdwlrq1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ xvlqj wrwdo JGS 56 dv d sur{|iru pdunhw vl}h +lqvwhdg ri oderu irufh, ru froohjh dwwdlqphqw dv d sur{|iru hgxfdwlrq +lqvwhdg ri vhfrqgdu|vfkrrolqj, kdv d vpdoo lpsdfw rq wkh hvwlpdwhv1 Zh dovr frqwuro iru orj+shu fdslwd JGS, dqg lwv vtxduh/ l1h1/ iru d Nx}qhwv0w|sh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq zdjh lqhtxdolw|dqg shu fdslwd JGS1 Lqghshqghqw ri wkh phwkrg ri hvwlpdwlrq/ wkh frh!flhqwv rq wkh shu fdslwd JGS sro|qrpldo duh qrw vljqlfdqw dqg zlwk wkh xqh{shfwhg vljq1 Lq frqwudvw/ wkh hvwlpdwhg frhi0

flhqwv rq orj+rshqqhvv, dqg orj+oderu irufh, duh xqdhfwhg1 Wkh frh!flhqw ri wkh vfkrrolqj yduldeoh lv wkh rqo|rqh zkrvh pdjqlwxgh dqg vljqlfdqfh duh dhfwhg e|wkh lqfoxvlrq ri wkh sro|qrpldo lq orj+shu fdslwd JGS,1 Wklv lv kdugo|vxusulvlqj/ jlyhq wkh kljk froolqhdulw|ehwzhhq orj+shu fdslwd JGS, dqg orj+vhfrqgdu|vfkrrolqj, +wkh frh!flhqw ri olqhdu fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh wzr yduldeohv htxdov 31;8 lq erwk shulrgv,1

56

Dowkrxjk wrwdo JGS fdswxuhv zhoo wkh hfrqrplf vl}h ri d frxqwu|/ lwv fruuhodwlrq zlwk shu fdslwd JGS pdnhv lw d ohvv dwwudfwlyh vfdoh sur{|1 Dv vkrzq lq Wdeoh 5/ JGS shu fdslwd kdv qhjdwlyh dqg qrq vljqlfdqw hhfw rq zdjh suhpld1 Wklv pd| h{sodlq zk| wrwdo JGS wv wkh gdwd voljkwo| zruvh wkdq oderu irufh1

53

(23)

log(Skill premium), unexplained part

l o g ( L a b o r f o r c e )

5 9 1 3

0 . 5 1 1 . 5

M L T

M L T C Y P

C Y P P A N

P A N U R U

I R EI R E U R U G U AF I N

F I N

D E N D E N

G U A A U T

A U T G R E

C H I

S W E

G R ES W E H U N C H I

H U N M Y S

C Z E P E R

C Z E A U S

M Y S

P E R

A U S

C O L T A N

C A N T A N

C O L S P A E G Y

C A N K O R S P A E T H

E G Y

T U R P H I

K O R ITA E T HITA

P H I

T U R M E X

U K U K

P A K M E X

G E R

P A K G E R B A N

B A N

J A P J A P

U S A U S A

I N D I N D

Iljxuh 7= Vnloo suhpld dqg frxqwu|vl}h Wdeoh 51 Vhqvlwlylw| dqdo|vlv

Yduldeoh Srrohg ROV Udqgrp0hhfwv

orj+Rshqqhvv, 31669 3167; 31778 315:5 315:3 3165<

+3143;, +31446, +31444, +313:8, +313;5, +313;6,

orj+Oderu 0 313;7 313<6 0 3138< 31393

irufh, +31368, +31365, +31364, +31363,

orj +JGS, 31393 0 0 31373 0 0

+3135<, +3135;,

orj+Vhfrqgdu| 0315;9 0 03148< 03157< 0 031465

vfkrrolqj, +313:9, +31443, +31394, +313;9,

orj+Froohjh 0 031448 0 0 031438 0

Hgxfdwlrq, +31368, +3136;,

orj+JGS shu 0 0 03184: 0 0 031683

fdslwd, +31674, +31833,

orj+JGS shu 0 0 3135< 0 0 3134;

fdslwd, vtxduhg +31356, +31363,

Gxpp|= Odwlq 31744 31837 31837 316<3 317:3 31778 Dphulfd +313:4, +3139;, +313;4, +313;<, +313<:, +31434, Gxpp|= 4<<3 31434 313;4 313:6 313<; 313;4 313:9

+31363, +31365, +31366, +3135<, +31364, +31364,

Revhuydwlrqv :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3

U0vtxduhg 3187 3183 318< 3186 3183 318;

Qrwhv= wkh ghshqghqw yduldeoh lv orj+Vnloo suhplxp,1 Vwdqgdug huuruv duh uh0 sruwhg lq sduhqwkhvhv1 Lq wkh Srrohg ROV uhjuhvvlrq/ urexvw vwdqgdug huuruv duh fdofxodwhg lq wkh suhvhqfh ri uhshdwhg revhuydwlrqv rq lqglylgxdo frxqwulhv1

54

(24)

715 Hylghqfh iurp rwkhu vwxglhv

Rwkhu revhuydwlrqv ohqg vxssruw wr rxu uhvxow1 Zh phqwlrq khuh wkh hyl0 ghqfh iurp d ihz uhodwhg vwxglhv1 Dqwzhlohu dqg Wuh hu ^5333`/ xvlqj wudgh gdwd iru :4 frxqwulhv dqg 8 |hduv/ vkrz wkdw d ulvh lq rxwsxw whqgv wr lq0 fuhdvh wkh uhodwlyh ghpdqg iru vnloohg zrunhuv1 Klvwrulfdo hylghqfh vhhpv frqvlvwhqw zlwk d vnloo0eldvhg vfdoh hhfw wrr= Olqghuw dqg Zlooldpvrq ^5334`/

iru h{dpsoh/ vkrz wkdw lqhtxdolw|zlghqhg gxulqj wkh joredol}dwlrq errpv dqg diwhu pdvvlyh lppljudwlrq/ zkhuhdv lw ghfuhdvhg lq wkh shulrg 4<4704<83 ri surwhfwlrqlvp dqg lq wkh suhvhqfh ri pdvvlyh hpljudwlrq1 Ilqdoo|/ Klqh dqg Zuljkw ^4<<;` uhsruw lqgluhfw hylghqfh lq vxssruw ri wkh phfkdqlvp lo0 oxvwudwhg lq wkh sdshu1 Zlwk uhihuhqfh wr wkh Xqlwhg Nlqjgrp/ wkh|hvwlpdwh wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wudgh0lqgxfhg surgxfwlylw|hhfwv1 Wkhlu prvw lqwhuhvwlqj uhvxow lv wkdw wudgh zlwk rwkhu RHFG frxqwulhv kdv d pxfk vwurqjhu hhfw rq surgxfwlylw|wkdq wudgh zlwk ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv1 Wklv lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk rxu prgho/ lq sulplv/ ehfdxvh wkh hfrqrplf vl}h ri wkh RHFG frxqwulhv +dqg wkhuhiruh wkh wudgh jhqhudwhg vfdoh hhfw, lv pxfk odujhu wkdq wkdw ri ghyho0 rslqj frxqwulhv> lq vhfxqglv/ ehfdxvh wkh XN wudgh zlwk dgydqfhg frxqwulhv lv pdlqo|lqwud0lqgxvwu|wudgh lq vnloo0lqwhqvlyh jrrgv fkdudfwhul}hg e|vwurqj vfdoh hfrqrplhv +wkhuhiruh wkh pruh surqrxqfhg surgxfwlylw|jdlq,1

8 Frqfoxglqj Uhpdunv

Wkh prvw ruljlqdo uhvxow ri rxu dqdo| vlv lv wr vkrz wkdw wkh vfdoh ri dq hfrq0 rp|fdq eh d nh|ghwhuplqdqw ri zdjh lqhtxdolw|1 Wklv lv d jhqhudo uhvxow zklfk dssolhv wr glhuhqw frqwh{wv1 Lq wklv sdshu/ zh kdyh irfxvvhg rq wkh uroh sod|hg e| d wudgh0lqgxfhg vfdoh hhfw/ lqvwhdg ri rwkhu frxqwu|0vshflf vfdoh hhfwv/ vxfk dv idfwru dffxpxodwlrq ru whfkqlfdo surjuhvv/ iru wkh iro0 orzlqj uhdvrqv1 Iluvw/ zh frqvlghu wudgh dv wkh prvw lqwhuhvwlqj vfdoh yduldeoh ehfdxvh lw lv wkh rqo|rqh wkdw fdq fkdqjh deuxswo|dv d frqvhtxhqfh ri srolf|

uhirupv1 Vhfrqg/ li joredol}dwlrq jrhv idu hqrxjk/ idfwru sulfhv zloo pdlqo|

eh ghwhuplqhg dw wkh zruog ohyho dqg frxqwu|0vshflf yduldeohv zloo orvh wkhlu lpsruwdqfh1 Wklug/ wudgh lv d ixqgdphqwdo hohphqw ri rxu vwru|ehfdxvh wkh vfdoh hhfw rshudwhv wkurxjk wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh qxpehu ri dydlodeoh lqwhuph0 gldwhv pdgh srvvleoh e|vrph irup ri wudgh1 Ilqdoo|/ rxu iudphzrun vkrzv wkdw d qhz wudgh wkhru| h{sodqdwlrq +l1h1/ edvhg rq lqwud0lqgxvwu| wudgh, iru wkh lqfuhdvh lq zdjh lqhtxdolw|fdq eh uhfrqflohg zlwk wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh

55

(25)

riwhq xvhg wr glvfuhglw pruh wudglwlrqdo wudgh h{sodqdwlrqv1 Zh frqvlghu wklv dv dq lpsruwdqw uhvxow shu vh1 Rxu hpslulfdo qglqjv ohqg vxssruw wr wklv fkrlfh ri hpskdvlv/ dv wkh|vxjjhvw wkdw wudgh lv d pdmru ghwhuplqdqw ri zdjh lqhtxdolw|lq d sdqho ri frxqwulhv1

Zh frqfoxgh e|glvfxvvlqj krz rxu uhvxow lv uhodwhg wr wkh pdlq dowhuqdwlyh h{sodqdwlrqv iru wkh ulvlqj vnloo suhpld= prghov ri gluhfwhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh/

lq zklfk wkh vnloo eldv ri whfkqlfdo surjuhvv lv hqgrjhqrxv/ dqg prghov ri rxwvrxuflqj1 Lq prghov ri gluhfwhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh +lqlwldwhg e|Dfhprjox

^4<<;`,/ d pdunhw vl}h hhfw sod|v d nh| uroh= wkh vnloo eldv ri wkh whfkqrorj|

ghshqgv srvlwlyho|rq wkh vl}h ri wkh uhodwlyh hqgrzphqw ri vnloohg zrun0 huv1 Krzhyhu/ vlqfh wkhuh duh qr vhfwrudo dv|pphwulhv/ wkh vnloo suhplxp fdq rqo|eh dhfwhg e|dv|pphwulf fkdqjhv lq wkh hfrqrplf hqylurqphqw1 Rxu phfkdqlvp lv frpsohphqwdu|/ dv lw vkrzv wkdw rqfh vhfwrudo dv|pphwulhv duh lqwurgxfhg/ hyhq d sxuho|v|pphwulf hqgrzphqw vkrfn dhfwv lqfrph glvwul0 exwlrq1 Wklv frpsohphqwdulw|lv uh hfwhg dovr e|rxu hfrqrphwulf uhvxowv/

dv wkh|vkrz wkdw erwk wkh sur{|iru vnloo0eldvhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh dqg vfdoh yduldeohv duh lpsruwdqw wr h{sodlq zruogzlgh zdjh lqhtxdolw|1 57 Lq prg0 hov ri rxwvrxuflqj/ lqvwhdg/ lw lv wkh uhorfdol}dwlrq lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv ri vrph skdvhv ri wkh surgxfwlrq surfhvv e|RHFG frxqwulhv +wkurxjk wudgh lq lqwhuphgldwhv, wkdw lqfuhdvhv wkh ghpdqg iru vnloohg oderu1 58 Wklv kds0 shqv ehfdxvh wkh rxwvrxufhg dfwlylwlhv duh xqvnloohg0oderu lqwhqvlyh uhodwlyh wr wkrvh shuiruphg lq wkh ghyhorshg zruog/ exw vnloohg0oderu lqwhqvlyh uho0 dwlyh wr wkrvh shuiruphg lq wkh ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv1 Rxu dssurdfk vkduhv wkh edvlf lqvljkw wkdw wudgh lq lqwhuphgldwh lqsxwv grhv qrw rqo|dhfw wkh lpsruw0frpshwlqj vhfwru/ exw dovr wkh lqsxw0xvlqj vhfwru1 Ghvslwh wklv vlpl0 odulw|/ wkh wzr prghov dsso| wr txlwh glhuhqw vlwxdwlrqv/ dv rxwvrxuflqj fdq wdnh sodfh ehwzhhq glvvlplodu frxqwulhv rqo|/ zkhuhdv zh hpskdvl}h wkh uroh ri wudgh lq lqwhuphgldwhv dprqj lqgxvwuldo frxqwulhv1

Ilqdoo|/ lq wklv sdshu zh kdyh fkrvhq d vshflf pdunhw vwuxfwxuh +prqrsr0 olvwlf frpshwlwlrq, dqg vshflf ixqfwlrqdo irupv rq wkh edvlv ri rxu uhdglqj ri wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh/ wr ehwwhu txdqwli|wkh hhfw zh glvfxvv1 Pxfk ri wkh lqwhqvh glvsxwh rq wkh uroh ri wudgh lq h{sodlqlqj lqhtxdolw|lv/ lq idfw/ fhq0 whuhg rq dvvhvvlqj wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh wudgh0lqgxfhg hhfwv1 Exw rxu prgho lv d vshflf h{dpsoh ri d pruh jhqhudo sulqflsoh/ vxusulvlqjo|qhjohfwhg lq wkh

57

Rwkhu hylghqfh lq vxssruw ri wkh uroh ri whfkqrorj| ryhu wlph lv zlwklq0lqgxvwu| gh0 pdqg vkliwv lq idyru ri vnloohg oderu1 Ndw} dqg Pxusk| ^4<<5`/ dprqj rwkhuv/ grfxphqw wklv skhqrphqrq iru wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv1

58

Iru d vxuyh|/ vhh Ihhqvwud dqg Kdqvrq ^5334`1

56

(26)

rqjrlqj ghedwh= zlwk vhfwrudo dv|pphwulhv lq wkh ghjuhh ri uhwxuqv wr vfdoh dqg d qrq0xqlwdu|hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq frqvxpswlrq/ dq|lqfuhdvh lq pdunhw vl}h gxh wr wudgh lqwhjudwlrq lv qrq0qhxwudo rq lqfrph glvwulexwlrq1

Uhihuhqfhv

^4` Dfhprjox/ Gdurq +4<<;,1 Zk|Gr Qhz Whfkqrorjlhv Frpsohphqw VnloovB Gluhfwhg Whfkqlfdo Fkdqjh dqg Zdjh Lqhtxdolw|/ Txduwhuo|

Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 446/ 4388043<31

^5` Dfhprjox/ Gdurq +4<<<,1 Sdwwhuq ri Vnloo0Suhpld/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu Z :34;1

^6` Dfhprjox/ Gdurq dqg Ideul}lr ]lolerwwl +5334,1 Surgxfwlylw|Glhu0 hqfhv/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 449/ 896093:1

^7` Dqwzhlohu/ Zhuqhu dqg Wuh hu Gdqlho +5333,1 Lqfuhdvlqj Uhwxuqv dqg Doo Wkdw= d Ylhz iurp Wudgh/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu Z :<741

^8` Dxwru/ Gdylg K1/ Odzuhqfh I1 Ndw} dqg Dodq E1 Nuxhjhu +4<<;,1

Frpsxwlqj Lqhtxdolw|= Kdyh Frpsxwhuv Fkdqjhg wkh Oderu PdunhwB/

Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 446/ 449<045461

^9` Eduur/ Urehuw M1 +5333,1 Lqhtxdolw|dqg Jurzwk lq d Sdqho ri Frxq0 wulhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Jurzwk 8/ 80651

^:` Ehupdq/ Hol/ Mrkq Erxqg dqg Vwhskhq Pdfklq +4<<;,1 Lpsolfdwlrqv ri Vnloo0Eldvhg Whfkqrorjlfdo Fkdqjh= Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hylghqfh/ Txduwhuo|

Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 446/ 4578045;31

^;` Ehupdq/ Hol/ Mrkq Erxqg dqg ]yl Julolfkhv +4<<7,1 Fkdqjhv lq wkh Ghpdqg iru Vnloohg Oderu zlwklq X1V1 Pdqxidfwxulqj Lqgxvwulhv= Hyl0 ghqfh iurp wkh Dqqxdo Vxuyh|ri Pdqxidfwxulqj / Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 43</ 69:06<;1

^<` Fdvhool/ Iudqfhvfr +4<<<,1 Whfkqrorjlfdo Uhyroxwlrqv/ Dphulfdq Hfr0 qrplf Uhylhz ;</ :;04351

^43` Glqrsrxorv Holdv/ Frqvwdqwlqrv V|ursrxorv dqg Elq [x +5334,1 Lqwud0 Lqgxvwu|Wudgh dqg Zdjh Lqfrph Lqhtxdolw|/ plphr/ Xqlyhuvlw|ri Iorulgd1

57

(27)

^44` Gl{lw/ Dylqdvk dqg Mrvhsk Vwljolw} +4<::,1 Prqrsrolvwlf Frpshwlwlrq dqg Rswlpxp Surgxfw Glyhuvlw|/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz 9:/ 5<:0 63;1

^45` Grpv/ Pdun/ Wlprwk|Gxqqh dqg Nhqqhwk Wurvnh +4<<:,1 Zrunhuv/

Zdjhv dqg Whfkqrorj|/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 445/ 58605<31

^46` Hnkrop/ Ndurolqd dqg Nduhq Khohqh Plghoiduw0Nqduyln +5334,1 Uhod0 wlyh Zdjhv dqg Wudgh0Lqgxfhg Fkdqjhv lq Whfkqrorj|/ FHSU Glvfxv0 vlrq Sdshu Qr1 59::1

^47` Ihhqvwud/ Urehuw F1 +4<<7,1 Qhz Surgxfw Ydulhwlhv dqg wkh Phdvxuh0 phqw ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Sulfhv/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz ;7/ 48:04::1

^48` Ihhqvwud/ Urehuw F1 dqg Jrugrq K1 Kdqvrq +4<<9,1 Iruhljq Lqyhvwphqw/

Rxwvrxuflqj dqg Uhodwlyh Zdjhv/ lq U1F1 Ihhqvwud/ J1P1 Jurvvpdq dqg G1D1 Luzlq hgv1/ Wkh Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp| ri Wudgh Srolf|= Sdshuv lq Krqru ri Mdjglvk Ekdjzdwl/ PLW Suhvv/ ;<045:1

^49` Ihhqvwud/ Urehuw F1 dqg Jrugrq K1 Kdqvrq +4<<<,1 Wkh Lpsdfw ri Rxwvrxuflqj dqg Kljk0Whfkqrorj|Fdslwdo rq Zdjhv= Hvwlpdwhv iru wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv/ 4<:<04<<3/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 447/ <3:0

<731

^4:` Ihhqvwud/ Urehuw F1 dqg Jrugrq K1 Kdqvrq +5334,1 Joredo Surgxfwlrq Vkdulqj dqg Ulvlqj Lqhtxdolw|= D Vxuyh| ri Wudgh dqg Zdjhv/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu Z ;6:51

^4;` Iuhhpdq/ Ulfkdug E1 +4<;9,1 Ghpdqg iru Hgxfdwlrq/ Fkdswhu 9 lq Ruoh|Dvkhqihowhu dqg Ulfkdug Od|dug +hglwruv, Kdqgerrn ri Oderu Hfr0 qrplfv/ Qruwk Kroodqg/ Yro L/ 68:06;91

^4<` Kdoo/ Urehuw H1 +4<;9,1 Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh dqg Pdfurhfrqrplf Ioxfwx0 dwlrqv/ Eurrnlqjv Sdshuv rq Hfrqplf Dfwlylw| 5/ 5;8066;1

^53` Kdphuphvk/ G1 dqg M1 Judqw +4<:<,1 Hfrqrphwulf Vwxglhv ri Oderu0 Oderu Vxevwlwxwlrq dqg Wkhlu Lpsolfdwlrqv iru Srolf|/ Mrxuqdo ri Kx0 pdq Uhvrxufhv 47/ 84;08751

^54` Kdqvrq/ Jrugrq K1 dqg Dqq Kduulvrq +4<<<,1 Wudgh Whfkqrorj|dqg Zdjh Lqhtxdolw|= Hylghqfh iurp Ph{lfr Lqgxvwuldo dqg Oderu Uhodwlrqv Uhylhz 85/ 5:405;;1

58

(28)

^55` Klqh/ Urehuw dqg Shwhu Zuljkw +4<<;,1 Wudgh zlwk Orz Zdjh Hfrqrplhv/ Hpsor|phqw dqg Surgxfwlylw| lq XN Pdqxidfwxulqj/ Wkh Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo 43;/ 4833048431

^56` Ndw}/ Odzuhqfh dqg Nhylq Pxusk|+4<<5,1 Fkdqjhv lq Uhodwlyh Zdjhv=

Vxsso|dqg Ghpdqg Idfwruv/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 43:/ 680 :;1

^57` Nuxhjhu/ Dodq E1 +4<<:,1 Oderu Pdunhw Vkliwv dqg wkh Sulfh Sx}}oh Uhylvlwhg/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu Z 8<571

^58` Nuxjpdq/ Sdxo +4<:<,1 Lqfuhdvlqj Uhwxuqv/ Prqrsrolvwlf Frpshwlwlrq dqg Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv </ 79<0 7:<1

^59` Nuxjpdq/ Sdxo +5333,1 Whfkqrorj|/ Wudgh dqg Idfwru Sulfhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv 83/ 840:41

^5:` Nuxvhoo/ Shu/ Ohh H1 Rkdqldq/ Mrvì0Yðfwru Uðrv0Uxoo dqg Jlrydqql O1 Ylrodqwh +5333,1 Fdslwdo0vnloo Frpsohphqwdulw|dqg Lqhtxdolw|= D Pdfurhfrqrplf Dqdo|vlv Hfrqrphwulfd 9;/ 435< 043861

^5;` Odl/ Kxlzhq dqg Gdqlho Wuh hu +4<<<,1 Wkh Jdlqv Iurp Wudgh= Vwdq0 gdug Huuruv zlwk wkh FHV Prqrsrolvwlf Frpshwlwlrq Prgho/ plphr/

Xqlyhuvlw|ri Wrurqwr1

^5<` Odzuhqfh/ Urehuw dqg Pdwwkhz Vodxjkwhu +4<<6,1 Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh dqg Dphulfdq Zdjhv lq wkh 4<;3v= Jldqw Vxfnlqj Vrxqg ru Vpdoo Klf0 fxsB Eurrnlqjv Sdshuv ri Hfrqrplf Dfwlylw|= Plfurhfrqrplfv 5/ 4940 5441

^63` Olqghuw/ Shwhu K1 dqg Mhuh|J1 Zlooldpvrq +5334,1 Grhv Joredol}dwlrq Pdnh wkh Zruog Pruh XqhtxdoB QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu z;55;1

^64` Pdqdvvh/ Sdror dqg Dohvvdqgur Wxuulql +5334,1 Wudgh/ Zdjhv dqg Vx0 shuvwduv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv 87/ <: 0 44:1

^65` Qhdu|/ Shwhu +5334,1 Iruhljq Frpshwlwlrq dqg Zdjh Lqhtxdolw|/

plphr/ Xqlyhuvlw|Froohjh Gxeolq1

59

(29)

^66` Sdxo/ Fdwkhulqh M1 Pruulvrq dqg Grqdog V1 Vlhjho +4<<<,1 Vfdoh Hfrqrplhv dqg Lqgxvwu|Djjorphudwlrq H{whuqdolwlhv= D G|qdplf Frvw Ixqfwlrq Dssurdfk/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz ;</ 5:505<31

^67` Ureelqv/ Grqdog +4<<9,1 KRV Klwv Idfwv= Idfwv Zlq> Hylghqfh rq Wudgh dqg Zdjhv lq wkh Ghyhorslqj Zruog/ KLLG Glvfxvvlrq Sdshu 88:/ Kduydug Xqlyhuvlw|1

^68` Wkrhqlj/ Pdwkldv dqg Wklhuu|Yhuglhu +5334,1 D Wkhru|ri Ghihqvlyh Vnloo Eldvhg Lqqrydwlrq dqg Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh/ plphr1

^69` Zrrg/ Dguldq +4<<7,1 Qruwk0Vrxwk Wudgh/ Hpsor|phqw dqg Lqhtxdolw|=

Fkdqjlqj Iruwxqhv lq d Vnloo Gulyhq Zruog/ Foduhqgrq Suhvv/ R{irug/

XN1

^6:` Zrrg/ Dguldq +4<<;,1 Joredolvdwlrq dqg wkh Ulvh lq Oderxu Pdunhw Lqhtxdolwlhv/ Wkh Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo 43;/ 4796047;51

9 Dsshqgl{

914 Wkh Jhqhudo Prgho

Zh vwxg|qrz wkh pruh jhqhudo fdvh lq zklfk hdfk jrrg lv d Free0Grxjodv frpsrvlwh ri M/ u dqg g1 Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh wrwdo frvw ixqfwlrq ri d vlqjoh ydulhw|surgxfhg lq vhfwru  lv=

A   ' E8  n S  +  o  E k 



 , 3k



 3 c +55, zkhuh o lv wkh uhqwdo udwh/  lv wkh vkduh ri fdslwdo lq wrwdo frvw/ dqg k  + '

c ,, lv wkh zdjh0eloo vkduh ri vnloohg zrunhuv lq vhfwru 1 Zh dvvxph wkdw k  : k , / qdpho|wkdw vhfwru  lv vnloo0lqwhqvlyh uhodwlyh wr vhfwru ,1 Wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri vnloo0lqwhqvlyh ydulhwlhv lpsolhg e|+55, dqg surw pd{lpl}dwlrq ehfrphv= 59

R 

R , ' o  E  k



 , 3k



 3

o  E  k

,

 , 3k

,

 3 ' / E3Ek



3k

,

  +56,

59

Sulfhv duh d pdunxs ryhu pdujlqdo frvw/ dqg zh kdyh djdlq xvhg wkh qrupdol}dwlrq f

l

@ 

4 

4l

 1

5:

(30)

Iuhh0hqwu|dqg wkh fkrlfh ri xqlwv vxfk wkdw 8  ' *j  { wkh vfdoh ri sur0 gxfwlrq ri hdfk ydulhw|wr rqh= +  ' 1 Htxdwlrqv +5,/ +<, dqg +43, duh xqfkdqjhg> wrjhwkhu zlwk +56, wkh|lpso|=

? 

"

E

j3"j3

 / E3Ek



3k

,

 ' ? ,

"

E

j,3"j,3

  +57, Wkh ghpdqg iru hdfk idfwru fdq eh irxqg xvlqj Vkhskdug*v ohppd rq wkh wrwdo frvw ixqfwlrq +55,1 Diwhu vhwwlqj  , dv wkh qxphudluh/ wkh frqglwlrqv iru ixoo hpsor|phqw ri fdslwdo/ vnloohg dqg xqvnloohg zrunhuv ehfrph=

g ' o 3 / E3k



?  n o 3 / E3k

,

? ,

M ' E  k  o  / E3k



?  n E  k , o  / E3k

,

? ,

u ' E   E  k   o  / E3k



?  n E   E  k ,  o  / E3k

,

? ,  Vroylqj iru ?  dqg ? , jlyhv=

?  ' E  k   M/  k  u E  Ek   k  / k



E3

 

  

u n M/

g

 3

' u 3 g  dE  k   w/  k  E  wo E  w n w/ 3

E   3   Ek   k  / k



E3 c iru c  ' ,c /  '' / u ' M n u dqg w ' M*u1 Vlpsoh ghulydwlrq |lhogv=

Y? 

Y/ : fc Y? ,

Y/ fc Y? 

Yw : fc Y? ,

Yw f +58,

Wkhvh sduwldo ghulydwlyhv frph iurp wkh surgxfwlrq vlgh ri wkh hfrqrp|1 Wkh|lpso|wkdw wkh kljkhu wkh vxsso|ri rqh idfwru/ wkh odujhu wkh vl}h ri wkh vhfwru zklfk xvhv wkdw idfwru lqwhqvlyho|/ dqg wkdw wkh odujhu wkh vl}h ri rqh vhfwru/ wkh kljkhu wkh uhodwlyh uhzdug iru wkh idfwru zklfk lv xvhg lqwhqvlyho|lq wkdw vhfwru1 Xvlqj wkh h{suhvvlrqv iru ?  dqg ? , lq +57, dqg glhuhqwldwlqj lw zlwk uhvshfw wr w/ g dqg u/ zh qg wkh hodvwlflw|ri wkh vnloo suhplxp=

_/

/ '

E"3Ej

,

3j



 Ej



3Ej

,

3

k  _g g n E   _u u l

 

j



3"

j



3 Y?



Yw w

?



 j j

,,

3" Y? Yw

,

? w

,



_w w

E   Ek   k ,  " n j j



3" Y? Y/



? /



 j j

,,

3" Y? Y/

,

? /

,

 Jlyhq wkh lqhtxdolwlhv lq +58, dqg rxu dvvxpswlrq  " j  j , / lw fdq eh vhhq wkdw wkh vnloo suhplxp lv lqfuhdvlqj lq wkh vfdoh dqg ghfuhdvlqj lq wkh

5;

(31)

vkduh ri vnloohg zrunhuv1 Htxdwlrqv +47, dqg +53, duh doo vshfldo fdvhv ri wklv irupxod1

Ilqdoo|/ lw lv srvvleoh wr vkrz wkdw wkh hodvwlflw| ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq vnloohg dqg xqvnloohg zrunhuv +kroglqj wkh rwkhu yduldeohv frqvwdqw, lv jlyhq e|=

0  '  _EM*u

_/

/ M*u

 

?



c?

,

cg



cg

,

' Ek   k ,  E"  

 k



3k



M/ u   

n 

  3k k

,,

M/ u  n 

Uhduudqjlqj/ zh fdq zulwh wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq frqvxpswlrq +", dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh hodvwlflw|ri vxevwlwxwlrq lq surgxfwlrq +0  ,=

" '  n E0   

k   k ,

% k 

  k 

u M/  



n



  k ,

  k ,

u M/

 &



Qrwh wkdw 0  :  lpsolhv " :  dqg wkdw 0  ' " li k  '  dqg k , ' f/ dv lq wkh prgho zlwk h{wuhph idfwru lqwhqvlwlhv lq wkh pdlq wh{w1

5<

References

Related documents

Dv fdq eh vhhq iurp Iljxuh  dqg Iljxuh 2 wkh htxdwlrq E  jlyhv d eldvhg uhvxow iru qlwh vdpsoh vl}hv1 Orrnlqj edfn dw wkh ghulydwlyhv ri htxdwlrq E  lw fdq eh vhhq wkdw

Rughu vwdwlvwlfv edvhg hvwlpdwruv duh riwhq xvhg iru vpdoo vdpsohv zkhuh dv|pswrwlf wkhru| lv lpsurshu/ dqg lw lv wkhuhiruh lpsruwdqw wr nqrz wkh vpdoo vdpsoh surshuwlhv dqg

,QVLGH WKH (08ñ WKLV H[WUD LQFHQWLYH IRU UHIRUP ZLOO EH PXFK ZHDNHUï 7KLV PXVWñ RI FRXUVHñ EH WKH FDVH LI WKH (&amp;% LV OHVV LQIODWLRQðSURQH WKDQ QDWLRQDO FHQWUDO EDQNVï ,QGHHGñ

Li zh kdyh rqo| sxuh zdwhu lq wkh v|vwhp/ htxdwlrq 7155 jlyhv xv d yhu| dffxudwh hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh sursdjdwlrq wlph1 Wkhq zh dvvxph wkdw rxu vxvshqvlrq frqvlvwv ri erwk sxuh zdwhu

Iurp wkh vlpxodwlrqv zh frqfoxgh wkdw wklv prgho fdq eh xvhg wr txdolwdwlyho| ghvfuleh wkh hhfw ri vfdwwhu0 lqj ri xowudvrxqg iru wklv h{shulphqwdo vhwxs1 Lw lv fohdu wkdw wkh

WKH ILOP VXUIDFH FDQ EH UHVSXWWHUHG DQG WKH SUREDELOLW\ IRU WKLV LV KLJKHU IRU OLJKW

6DPSOLQJRIHYLGHQFHV [SHULHQFH DQG NQRZOHGJH RQ WKH WRSLF RI WKLV WKHVLV FDQ EH IRXQG RQ VSHFLILF RUJDQL]DWLRQV LQYROYHG LQ WKH SURFHVV RI YDOXDWLRQ RI VHFXULWLHV 7KH PRVW VXLWDEOH

Wklv prglfdwlrq zrxog ri frxuvh dovr uhtxluh vrph dgmxvwphqwv lq wkh surriv1 Ilqdoo|/ frpsdulqj +:, zlwk +67, lw lv fohdu zk| zh xvh wkh qrwlrq lqqhu dqg rxwhu dssur{lpdwlrq1 Lq