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Global PV market and Industry Status

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(1)

PV Markzttan Masson, Director Becquerel Institute

Global PV market and Industry Status

Ir Gaëtan Masson

Director, Becquerel Institute

Vice-Chairman, EU PV Technology & Innovation Platform

(2)

BECQUEREL INSTITUTE - BRUSSELS

• Research oriented Institute and

consulting company for Solar Technologies.

• Global PV Market Analysis including competitiveness and economics.

• Industry analysis

together with quality

& reliability.

• Support for PV development

• Integration into

• In-house experts / Global network of experts and stakeholders

• PV Market Alliance partner

(3)

IEA PVPS TRENDS REPORT

(4)

CIVILIZATIONS & ENVIRONMENT

Rapa Nui (Easter

Island)

experienced

a complete

collapse of

its society…

(5)

FINEST ACHIEVEMENTS OF CIVILIZATION

(6)

THE CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT

"Well, I think the climate

change is just a very, very

expensive form of tax.

PotUS - 2016

(7)

ISN’T IT OBVIOUS ?

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(ENERGY) REVOLUTION

Dead Technologies Dead/Dying Utilities

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FRANCESCO STARACE (ENEL-EURELECTRIC)

I think the industry has lost some time in trying to resist what happened in technology, in denying what happened in the environment, so we had to catch up.

EURACTIV

04 Oct 2017

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A GROWING MARKET

+100

~400

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GROWING YES BUT WHERE

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2017 PRELIMINARY

China 53 GW

USA 10 GW (est.) India 9 GW (est.)

Japan 7 GW

EU 6 GW

Turkey 2.5 GW

RoW 12.5 GW

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AND EUROPE ?

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GWpDC

FIGURE 3: EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONS (GW - DC)

America AsiaPacific Europe MEA&A RoW

27… 5%

But slowly

with PV…

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A TALE OF 2 MARKETS

Distributed PV Producers

Grid injection, PPA, competition with utilities generation business Self-consumption,

energy effiency, grid parity, competition with utilities

distribution business

One

technology

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UTILITY-SCALE DOMINATES

(16)

SEGMENTATION

(17)

SYSTEM PRICES

Super competitive

tenders

Utility-scale

under FiT Rooftop PV

(18)

SUMMARY

- Key market features

- A large part of the global PV market is located in Asia, with China dominating. The global PV market has doubled in two years.

- The growth outside of China has a 15% CAGR.

- Europe (EU) has difficulties to cope with the end of the FIT-era.

- Distributed PV represented less than 20 GW from 2011 to 2016.

Then it jumpted to 34 GW in 2017. Thanks to 19 GW in China.

- The distributed PV market remains dominated by FIT policies outside of Europe, and net-metering evolving towards self- consumption policies in Europe (and US, Japan…)

- The bulk of the PV market is extremely competitive with half of the market below the 1 USD/Wp mark in 2017.

- Value of the PV market in 2017 could be estimated around 125

Billion USD (new installations).

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NOT EASY TO CONVINCE

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FORECASTS?

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BUT THIS COULD GO FASTER

1. PV is becoming fast the cheapest source of electricity.

2. The past has seen faster developments:

1. From 2012 to 2017: market x 3 2. From 2007 to 2012: market x 15

3. PV on cars could represent dozens of MV 4. PV on buildings are developing as well.

5. So… 200 GW a year in 2022 ? Or more ?

(22)

TRIPLE (CONNECTED) I/E-REVOLUTION

(23)

ENERGY VS POWER

(24)

UTILITY-SCALE PV FALLING PRICES

(25)

GROWING PINEAPPLE IN ALASKA?

« Producing electricity from Solar in Germany is like growing pienapple in Alaska. »

Jürgen Grossman, former

CEO of RWE, 2011

(26)

PV BELOW 0,02 USD/KWH ?

0,0168 $ per kWh

(27)

THE PV INDUSTRY

Here and

now (again)

(28)

OVERCAPACITIES IN THE INDUSTRY?

(29)

CHINA AND ASIA RULE THE WORLD

(30)

ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE

Prices Learning Curve

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PV PRICE LEARNING CURVE

0,4 USD/Wp

97%

production

37% LC

20% LC

0,45 USD/WP – 275 GW

Source: Becquerel Institute 2016-2017

0,38 USD/WP – 300 GW

0,34 USD/WP – 400 GW

(32)

4.2. THIN FILM LEARNING CURVES

(33)

TECHNOLOGY VIEW

Evolution of efficiencies change the market

conditions: from nov 2015

(34)

GAME CHANGER?

Evolution of efficiencies change the market

conditions: thin film CdTe become more competitive

while all efficiencies are improving.

(35)

ROLE OF MATERIALS

0,0000 0,0500 0,1000 0,1500 0,2000 0,2500 0,3000 0,3500 0,4000 0,4500

Axeltitel

Shipping

Module costs with GPM Total others

Total Margins Total Labor

Total Energy/utilities Total Maintenance

Total Depreciation of Equipment Total Other Materials

Silicon

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EUROPE IS NOT DEAD

- Heterojunction

- Enel Green Power with 250 MW

- + … at least two other manufacturers

- Epitaxial wafers

- Pilot line for Nexwafe without competition

- Wafers

- Photowatt announced at least 500 MW to start

- + BIPV + …

(37)

CONCLUSIONS

The revolution has just started…

From simple modules to BIPV, roads, floatting PV, urban furniture, cars, trains, planes…

PV will be the CHEAPEST source of energy in this century.

The fate of the industry and the market is not

written, it depends on policy choices.

(38)

QUOTE

« PV is not the source of electricity of the future…

… it is already a reality today »

(39)

NEXT STEP IN EVOLUTION

(40)

g.masson@becquerelinstitute.org

Thanks for

References

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