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Energy in Brazil

– resources, trade-off and strategies for the future

Energy issues are increasingly at the centre of the Brazilian policy agenda. Blessed with abundant energy resources, the country is currently in a formative moment with respect to its future development model. The primary purpose of this report has been to illustrate and analyse the main strands of development within the energy area in Brazil. It also makes

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Dnr: 2013/164

Swedish Agency For Growth Policy Analysis Studentplan 3, SE-831 40 Östersund, Sweden Telephone: +46 (0)10 447 44 00

Fax: +46 (0)10 447 44 01 E-mail: info@growthanalysis.se www.growthanalysis.se

For further information, please contact Martin Flack Telephone: +46 10 447 44 77

E-mail: martin.flack@tillvaxtanalys.se

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Foreword

This report has been written by Growth Analysis on commission by the Swedish Energy Agency, within the framework for cooperation between the two agencies.

The primary purpose has been to illustrate and analyse the main strands of development within the energy area in Brazil and to make recommendations to the Energy Agency re- garding possible areas for mutually beneficial collaboration with Brazilian counterparts.

A secondary purpose was also to suggest areas for cross country analyses on energy and innovation policies, which can be part of future work by Growth Analysis on behalf of the Energy Agency and other stakeholders in Sweden.

On the first issue the following areas are suggested as a good starting point for a discussion with Brazilian actors:

the nexus between land-use issues (LULUCF), energy and water

second-generation biofuels

energy and climate change through the lens of water management

energy and industrial waste/biogas

The report was written by Mikael Román, analyst and head of office at Growth Analysis’

office in Brasilia, in collaboration with Fábio Saraiva Schott.

Stockholm, October 2013 Enrico Deiaco

Head of division, Innovation and Global Meeting Places Growth Analysis

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Table of Contents

Summary and main features of the current energy/economy discourse in Brazil ... 7

Sammanfattning och huvuddrag i den brasilianska diskussionen om ekonomi och energi ... 8

1 Background and energy profile ... 9

1.1 Energy Sources ...9

1.2 Energy Consumption by Sector ... 12

1.3 Geographical Distribution of Energy ... 12

2 Policy framework and landscape ... 14

2.1 Current challenges and strategic choices ... 14

2.1.1 The ongoing exploration of Présal ... 14

2.1.2 The ambition to become a global leader for a low-carbon economy ... 15

2.1.3 The international and geostrategic dimensions of energy ... 15

2.1.4 The raising internal energy demands ... 16

2.1.5 The structural problems in the electricity sector ... 17

2.1.6 The waning ethanol market ... 18

2.1.7 The emerging impacts of climate change ... 18

2.2 Market conditions ... 19

2.3 Research, development and innovation ... 23

3 Main observations and recommendations for “further research” ... 25

4 References ... 27

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Summary and main features of the current energy/economy discourse in Brazil

Energy issues are increasingly at the centre of the Brazilian policy agenda. Blessed with abundant energy resources of all sorts, the country is currently in a formative moment with respect to its future development model. After having been an anomaly in many respects, with an unusually clean energy matrix resulting from the extensive use of hydropower and biofuels, Brazil is now facing growing energy demands, following from economic devel- opment, and the opportunities of recently discovered oil reserves. This, along with emerg- ing effects of climate change, is now forcing Brazil to make a set of strategic decisions related to: 1) the on-going exploration of the country’s oil reserves (Présal); 2) the ambi- tion to become a global leader for a low-carbon economy; 3) the international and geo- strategic dimensions of energy; 4) the raising internal energy demands; 5) the structural problems in the energy sector; 6) the waning ethanol market; and 7) the emerging impacts of climate change.

In parallel, Brazil is also readjusting from more than twenty years of import-substitution policy imposed by the military regime (1964–1985) that left the country’s economy virtu- ally without any innovative capacity. The privatization policies that followed from 1990 and onwards have been largely successful. Yet, there are still adjustments to be made be- fore the energy market is fully consolidated.

In this context, the government is now investing heavily in research, development and innovation with the objective to enhance Brazil’s competiveness on the global market.

Energy is one of the key areas in this effort.

With these observations in mind, the following issues seem particularly rewarding for future research. More broadly, they unfold in two groups:

One group refers more explicitly to concrete issue areas or economic sectors and may have specific reference to the Brazilian context.

the nexus between land-use issues (LULUCF), energy and water

second-generation biofuels

energy and climate change through the lens of water management

energy and industrial waste/biogas

The other group of issues is more problem-oriented and allows, as such, for comparisons between Growth Analysis’ different offices.

the notion of ‘transitional energy’

development concerns and social priorities as a driver for energy policy

the impacts of different decision and implementation models

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Sammanfattning och huvuddrag i den brasilianska diskussionen om ekonomi och energi

Energifrågorna klättrar allt högre på den brasilianska politiska agendan. Landet har god tillgång till energiresurser av många olika slag, allt ifrån vattenkraft och bioenergi till olja och gas, men befinner sig just nu i ett formativt skede vad gäller strukturen på energi- profilen. Kraftigt ökat energibehov till följd av ekonomisk utveckling, enorma fynd av framförallt olja och gas samt sinande vattentillgångar (en effekt av klimatförändringarna) pressar landets regering att utforska nya alternativ för att trygga energitillgången. Det handlar sammanfattningsvis om val som måste göras inom ett antal strategiska områden:

1) Den pågående expolateringen av landets olje- och gasreserver, 2) ambitionerna att kvarstå som en global ledare för en kolsnål tillväxtmodell, 3) de internationella och geostrategiska aspekterna av energifrågan, inte minst i närområdet, 4) den ökade inhemska efterfrågan på energi, 5) utmaningar med strukturella problem inom energisektorn, 6) etanolmarknadens stagnation, samt 7) anpassningar till allt större effekter av ett förändrat klimat.

Utöver detta finns en central utmaning i form av bristen på innovativ kapacitet, vilket är ett arv från den politik av importsubstitution och handelshinder som landets militärregim bedrev mellan 1964 och 1985. Reformer och privatiseringar har genomförts under de sen- aste årtiondena men fortfarande finns mycket kvar att göra, inte minst på energiområdet.

Mot bakgrund av detta satsar också regeringen i Brasilia stort på forskning, utveckling och innovation med målet att stärka Brasiliens internationella konkurrenskraft. Energiområdet är ett av de mest prioriterade i sammanhanget.

Sammantaget framstår ett antal frågor som särskilt relevanta att studera närmare i Brasi- lien, och som områden där det kan finnas goda möjligheter till utbyte mellan svenska och brasilianska aktörer. De här frågorna/områdena kan delas in i två grupper:

Den först gruppen fokuserar mer på de brasilianska förhållandena.

sambandet mellan markanvändningsfrågor (LULUCF), energi och vatten

andra generationens biodrivmedel

energi och klimatförändringar utifrån ett vattenperspektiv

energi- och industriavfall kopplat till biogas

Den andra gruppen av frågor är mer problemorienterad och möjliggör jämförelser mellan flera länder där Tillväxtanalys genomför bevakning och analys.

begreppet ”transitional energy”, energi för övergången till ett hållbart energisystem

utvecklingsfrågor och sociala prioriteringar som en drivkraft för energipolitiken

konsekvenserna av olika beslut och modeller för genomförande

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1 Background and energy profile

Over the last decade, Brazil has emerged as one of the leading emerging economies on the global scene. After having settled its macro-economic finances, the country entered in the beginning of the last decade a period of consistent economic growth, mainly based on commodity export and a spectacular growth in the agricultural sector. In parallel, the gov- ernment pursued extensive social programs that effectively brought millions of people out of poverty.

Brazil is also blessed with abundant energy resources. The country has over 80 per cent of its electricity from hydropower and is also well known for its extensive use of biofuels, mainly in the form of ethanol, in the transportation sector. Adding to this, extensive oil and gas reserves were also found outside the coast of Rio de Janeiro in early 2000.

Despite these generous conditions, the energy situation is increasingly complicated.

Growing internal energy demands, ageing infrastructure, and the emerging impacts climate change are today only but a few factors that recently come to question the present devel- opment model. Hence, over the next few years Brazil will have to take a set of strategic decisions regarding its energy system. This report is about these choices.

1.1 Energy sources

Brazil is by far the largest energy consumer in Latin America, with a final energy con- sumption of 246,636,000 toe.1 Yet, it is also an anomaly in the global energy context, mainly because of its relatively clean energy mix. In 2011, non-renewable energy consti- tuted 55.9 per cent of Brazil’s Total Primary Energy Supply, while renewable energy, mainly in the form of sugar cane products (15.7%) and hydropower (14.7%), made up for a remarkable 44.7 per cent.2 This strong emphasis on renewables, which compares with a corresponding 8 per cent for the OECD, makes, in effect, the Brazilian energy system one of the least carbon-intensive in the world.3 The principal factor behind this pattern is the high degree of hydro energy, which in 2011 accounted for 81.9 per cent of domestic elec- tric supply.4

Yet, as always, the devil is in the details and the aggregated numbers in the graph thus immediately calls for additional comments that somewhat adjust the picture. Moreover, they do not display some of the more important trends. The first, and obvious, observation is the dominant position of petroleum. To some surprise, Brazil has in fact a higher share of petroleum (38.6%) than both the global average in 2010 (32.4%) as well as for OECD in 2011 (36.3%).5 More important, though, the demand for oil is projected to increase at a rate well above world average, mainly due to: 1) an expected expansion of a transport sector that is already dominated by road transportation and diesel fuels; and 2) the ongoing exploration of the new oil and gas findings, Présal, outside the coast of Rio de Janeiro. The

1 Ministério de Minas e Energia (2012) Balanço Energético Nacional: Ano base 2011. MME, Brasília, DF.

2 In the Brazilian Energy Balance, the TPES is referred as Domestic Energy Supply (DES) but, as we compare the Portuguese and English versions, the two concepts are the same. For the data, see ibid.

3 Climate Policy Initiative (2013) The Policy Climate. CPI, San Francisco.

4 Ministério de Minas e Energia (2012) Balanço Energético Nacional: Ano base 2011. MME, Brasília, DF.

5 United Nations Development Programme (2004) World Energy Assessment: Overview 2004 Update. UNDP, New York, NY. pp. 28f. (IEA Key Energy World Statistics 2012:

http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/kwes.pdf)

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latter has in recent years generated major investments and the ambition is now to turn Brazil into a major oil exporter over the next decade. Petroleum is thereby likely to remain a key fuel in the Brazilian energy mix for the foreseeable future.

A second observation concerns the large share of hydropower in the primary energy mix, making up for nearly 80 per cent of total installed electrical capacity. This is a characteris- tic that Brazil shares with several of its neighbouring countries, and it is the result of both advantageous conditions and deliberate government strategies. The point, though, is that this has created a dependency on hydro energy that is currently increasingly questioned, not the least in light of perceived climate changes. Many are therefore suggesting a diversi- fication of the Brazilian energy mix. However, this is more easily said than done. Previous investments represent ‘sunken costs’ and the industry has over time become a highly influ- ential actor also on the political arena.

The third observation concerns the high use of bio-energy, which currently accounts for nearly 30 per cent of the Brazilian primary energy demand. The Brazilian experience with bio-energy has received a lot of attention over the years, since Brazil, unlike many other developing countries, uses biomass for more than cooking and heating. In fact, the country has developed advanced technologies and policies that allow industry and the transport sector to make extensive use of biomass. The National Alcohol Fuel Program (PROÁLCOOL), intended to stimulate the use of ethanol to fuel light vehicles, is well known, and similar attempts are now being made to promote the production and use of bio- diesel through the so-called National Biodiesel Production and Use Program (PNPB).

Figure 1 Primary Energy Mix (Supply)

Source: Balanço Energético Nacional 2012: Ano base 2011

38,7%

10,0%

5,6%

1,5%

14,7%

9,7%

15,7%

4,1%

Petroleum and Oil Products Natural Gas Coal and Coke

Uranium Hydro Energy Firewood and Charcoal

Sugar Cane Products Other Renewable

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Finally, it could be noted that the contribution from other renewable resources, such as wind power, solar and geothermal, until recently was virtually nil.6 This is gradually changing, although most activities are still in an experimental stage. One area, though, that is seeing considerable progress, primarily in the Northeast where natural conditions are highly advantageous, is wind power. In effect, electricity production from wind grew by 24.3 per cent between 2010 and 2011, so as to currently generate 2.705 GWh per year.

This represents, in effect, an increase of more than 3,700 per cent from 2002, when the total production amounted to a mere 56 GWh.7

Another area that could have similar potential is biogas. The latter is currently getting in- creasing attention in some larger municipalities, mainly in the Southeast, not only for its energy generation, but also as a means to solve waste and sewage problems. At this stage, however, it has not yet advanced as much as wind power.

Finally, one should also mention nuclear energy that always has been marginally repre- sented in the Brazilian energy matrix (around 2%). Nuclear was effectively discarded as a future option after Fukushima accident but, due to this year’s lack of rain, which has affected the production of hydroelectricity and forced the intensive use of expensive thermic (diesel) plants, it has re-emerged as a viable option. Brazil holds an estimated 23,000 tons of Uranium.8

6 Coviello, M.F., Altomonte, H. (2003) Energy Sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Share of Renewable Sources. ECLAC/CEPAL, Santiago de Chile. p. 21.

7 Ministério de Minas e Energia (2012) Balanço Energético Nacional: Ano base 2011. MME, Brasília, DF.

8 Fariello, D. (2013) Governo volta a discutir instalação de novas usinas nucleares. O Globo 9 February.

http://oglobo.globo.com/economia/governo-volta-discutir-instalacao-de-novas-usinas-nucleares-7539636, (accessed 10 February, 2013).

Figure 2 Breakdown of Renewable Energy Sources

Source: MME. Balanço Energético Nacional 2012: Ano base 2011 (Brasilia: MME 2012)

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1.2 Energy consumption by sector

A second issue concerns final energy use and its distribution. This is an area that is cur- rently undergoing a considerable transition, both in extent and configuration, mainly as result of economic growth, on-going infrastructure investments as well as social policies.

In 2011, the manufacturing sector accounted for 35.8 per cent of total energy consumption in Brazil, followed by the transport and residential sectors that held 30.0 per cent and 9.5 per cent respectively. One interesting trait, however, is the comparatively high use of bio- mass is in both the transportation and industry sectors. In the former, ethanol accounted for 14.5 per cent of total energy, while the use of sugar cane bagasse in the industry reached 19.1 per cent. At the same time, this should not hide the fact that the transportation sector is the largest consumer of fossil fuels in the Brazilian energy sector and the fleet of vehi- cles has grown at a pace much higher than the economy as a whole in the latest decade.9 As for secondary energy, electricity demand continues to grow faster than the economy and the overall energy consumption.10 This is mainly the result of the overall trends de- scribed above. One is the gradual expansion of Brazilian industrial production, of which an important share is based on electric-intensive and export-oriented industries, like alumin- ium, chemicals, iron and steel. Another is the residential sector consumption that has grown considerably in recent years. Here it is also important to note that electricity con- sumption, especially in developing nations like Brazil, is relatively inelastic to changes in GDP growth.11

1.3 Geographical distribution of energy

A final critical aspect of the Brazilian context concerns the regional variations regarding energy production and use. As we can see from the map in Figure 3, the bulk of the con- sumption is concentrated to the industrialized South and the Southeast that consumes more than 70 per cent of country’s total electricity. In fact, the Southeast region itself makes up for almost 54 per cent of national electricity consumption, with the state of São Paulo alone accounting for 30 per cent of total demand. Similarly, there are considerable differ- ences between the regions in the use of and access to different energy sources.12 At the same time, what is striking with Brazil is the extension of the interconnected national grid that covers of 95–97 per cent of the population. This is remarkably high for any emerging economy and yet another distinguishing trait for Brazil. At the same time, there are still considerable areas in Brazil that are without electricity. These are also the most difficult to access and will therefore require particular policies.

9 Ministério de Minas e Energia (2012) Balanço Energético Nacional: Ano base 2011. MME, Brasília, DF.

10Ibid..

11 Ministério de Minas e Energia (2006) Balanço Energético Nacional: Resultados Preliminares ano base 2005. MME, Brasília.; and Geller, H., Schaeffer, R., Szklo, A.S., Tomalsquim, M. (2004) Policies for advancing energy efficiency and renewable energy use in Brazil. Energy Policy 32, 1437-1450. p. 1439.

12 EPE/MME, Rio de

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Figure 3 Energy consumption per region Source: Valor Economico

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2 Policy framework and landscape

2.1 Current challenges and strategic choices

It is no exaggeration to say that energy is one of the most important, if not the most im- portant, policy issues in Brazil today, even more so than for many other countries. Its weight can be measured by the sheer size of the investments, with more than 755 billion SEK (BRL 236 billion) going into the sector until year 2020.13 The ambition is to increase production by almost 60 per cent between 2011 and 2020.14 For that, and many other rea- sons, Brazil is currently in a formative moment with respect to its energy system. The fact that many of the decisions taken over the next few years will set the stage for decades to come make them, in effect, highly strategic endeavours.

Below is a set of key challenges that will define and, subsequently, drive some of the criti- cal strategic choices on both a long-term and short-term basis.

2.1.1 The ongoing exploration of Présal

The principal game changer in the Brazilian energy debate over the last decade is, without any doubt, the discovery of oil and gas outside the coast of Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo and São Paulo. The exact amount of these assets, which are located offshore underneath a salt layer – hence the name Présal – at some 5,000 meters depth, is still not clear, although estimates indicate that it could be up to 123 billion barrels.15 If confirmed, this could turn Brazil into the world’s third largest oil producer, after Saudi Arabia and Russia.

With these developments follow also enormous investments in infrastructure and research that each present a number of challenges and opportunities. The extent of the accumulated investments is almost impossible to grasp. In a recent communiqué, the national oil com- pany, Petrobrás, announced, for example, that it alone will invest USD 236.7 billion in the period 2013–2017, mainly in the Présal operations.16 The potential implications along the value-chain could be in orders of magnitude.

This development obviously changes the basic foundation for Brazilian energy policies but also the country’s development strategy more broadly. In the long run, it could mean that the world’s largest bioenergy producer also could become a key member of OPEC. Inevi- tably, the country’s energy profile will also become more oriented towards fossil fuels. At the same time, Brazil cannot – and will not – abstain from the potential revenues coming out of Présal. Hence, the larger question is, along with the technological and logistical challenges associated with the exploration itself, how to create an institutional and admin- istrative framework that allows for a more sustainable use of the oil resources. This

13 Portal Brasil (2013b) Ministério prevê investimento de R$ 236 bilhões em energia nova até 2020. 29 December, 2011. http://www.brasil.gov.br/noticias/arquivos/2011/12/29/ministerio-preve-investimento-de-r- 236-bilhoes-em-energia-nova-ate-2020, (accessed 14 June,, 2013).

14 EPE/MME, Rio de Janeiro.

15 CNN Money (2011) Where the oil is: 6 huge untapped fields. 1 November.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2011/fortune/1101/gallery.next_big_oil_finds.fortune/4.html, (accessed 23 September, 2012).

16 de Oliveira, N. (2013) Petrobras vai investir US$ 236,7 bilhões nos próximos cinco anos. Portal EBC 15 March. http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/noticia/2013-03-15/petrobras-vai-investir-us-2367-bilhoes-nos-

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discussion is already underway and has, apart from an expected fight among the states regarding the internal division of royalties, generated several proposals of creating special funds to mitigate for the social and environmental impacts of Présal. Along these lines, President Dilma also suggested that a substantial part should be used to improve the coun- try’s educational system.17

2.1.2 The ambition to become a global leader for a low-carbon economy

The other side of the coin is, obviously, to take stock of Brazil’s natural advantages in the areas of biofuels and hydro energy. This has also been an explicit aim of the Brazilian government since COP-15 in Copenhagen 2009, when then-President Lula announced his country’s commitment to voluntarily reduce its greenhouse gases with 36.1–38.9 per cent (in relation to a BAU-scenario) until year 2020. Since then the government has worked primarily with the highly innovative agricultural sector, mainly through the so-called ABC program (to be described later), to reduce emission, while simultaneously increasing pro- duction. These explicit ambitions to take a lead in this field remain under President Dilma and have now extended also into other sectors.18

2.1.3 The international and geostrategic dimensions of energy

Following the previous observations is also clear that energy is increasingly becoming a geostrategic issue for Brazil. Through its abundance of energy in all its forms, Brazil is increasingly looking at energy as a critical export commodity and source of revenue. With this follows also an increasing political influence both regionally and globally.

17 Agostine, C. (2013) Dilma pede que Congresso aprove destinação de royalties para educação. Valor Econômico 6 May. http://www.valor.com.br/politica/3112554/dilma-pede-que-congresso-aprove-destinacao- de-royalties-para-educacao, (accessed 13 June, 2013).

18 Portal Brasil (2013a) Governo anuncia planos setoriais de mitigação das mudanças climáticas. 5 June.

(accessed 13 June, 2013).

Figure 4 Primary Energy Production, Imports and Exports Source: Balanço Energético Nacional 2012: Ano base 2011

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These growing ambitions to extend beyond the national borders are, among other things, illustrated through the energy related infrastructure investments that Brazilian companies, among them the former state monopolies Eletrobrás and Petrobrás, are pursuing in some of the neighbouring countries, such as Peru, Argentina, Bolivia and Venezuela.19 Some of these activities shall then be seen in the light of the expansions into the Amazon that, among other things, involves the planned construction of more than 30 dams in the re- gion.20 Similarly, the Brazilian government is also incentivizing investment and technology transfer in the African ethanol market.21 Importantly, this overall emphasis on energy has recently generated a revitalization of the Brazilian defence industry.22 The question, though, is how this expansion should be handled in the long run and what its implications are both regionally and globally.

2.1.4 The raising internal energy demands

Yet, despite this expansion towards external markets the principal energy challenge is still within Brazil. Just like any other emerging economy, Brazil is currently facing a major increase in internal energy demand. The latter are, as already indicated, a function of the recent years’ economic expansion and industrial growth but, perhaps even more im- portantly, also a consequence of social policies that effectively have lifted millions of people out of poverty. The growing middle class following from the latter policies is now raising energy demands at an almost exponential rate. As such, it hits right to the core of sustainable development, as we know it.

The basic responses to this situation are essentially to: 1) increase the production of en- ergy; 2) decrease consumption; and 3) increase energy efficiency. As we shall see, Brazil is already pursuing heavy investments to increase energy production to meet the inevitable increase in consumption. Consequently, the real challenge for the future resides in explor- ing the opportunities, as well as the very notion, of energy intensity. There will be reasons to come back to this issue.

19 (2012) Governo acelera usinas nos vizinhos para garantir energia. Folha de São Paulo 14 February.

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/1048284-governo-acelera-usinas-nos-vizinhos-para-garantir- energia.shtml, (accessed 3 June, 2012).

20 Mapstone, N. (2011) Hydroelectric power: Spate of dam building meets resistance. Financial Times 28 November. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0f9ea6e8-1110-11e1-a95c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2WFEdhrud, (accessed 14 June, 2013).

21 Ciarelli, M. (2012) Petrobrás investirá US$ 20 mi em unidade de etanol em Moçambique. O Estadão 3 May.

http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia,petrobras-investira-us-20-mi-em-unidade-de-etanol-em- mocambique,111127,0.htm, (accessed 5 May, 2012).

22 Peres, B. (2012) Especialistas defendem fortalecimento da indústria de defesa. Valor Econômico 15 February. http://www.valor.com.br/politica/2532366/especialistas-defendem-fortalecimento-da-industria-de-

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2.1.5 The structural problems in the electricity sector

In light of these growing energy demands, the clean Brazilian energy profile is, ironically, now becoming somewhat of a liability. This has become particularly evident in the elec- tricity sector, where the country’s strong dependency on hydro energy has been a matter of concern for some time. More recently, there have been several incidents, related to both production as well as transmission, with systemic impacts all over the country. This has led to several directed initiatives from the government but also a general call to diversify the country’s energy portfolio. The latter, however, raises then the question about viable alter- natives.

One critical issue in this context concerns transmission. Over the last year, there has been a series of blackouts that on a couple of occasions effectively have shut down entire regions for several hours. To most observers, it is now increasingly clear that the national grid is outdated and in urgent need of maintenance. Hence, in an effort to spur innovation in the sector, and at the same time lower Brazil’s comparatively energy prices, President Dilma decided in September 2012 to press some of the energy companies, by preceding negotia- tions on their terminating concessions.23 Parallel with this, the government is also putting considerable resources into research on smart grids.24

A second concern refers to the production of hydro energy. Here, there is a set of issues that jointly come to question the government’s plan for building new dams, mainly in the Amazon. One concerns the arduously slow processes for acquiring all necessary environ- mental permits. A second issue relates to the limited efficiency of the new generation of dams built with a limited reservoir (f ’ ). Finally, there is the emerging effect of climate change that is now threatening the very access to water. This year, reservoirs have

23 Villaverde, J. (2012) Concessionária de energia só terá contrato renovado se aceitar investir mais de R$ 20 bi. O Estado de São Paulo 10 September. http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia,concessionaria- de-energia-so-tera-contrato-renovado-se-aceitar-investir-mais-de-r-20-bi,126138,0.htm, (accessed 20 September, 2012).

24 Polito, R. (2013) Inova Energia recebe R$ 12,3 bi em projetos. Valor Econômico 8 May.

http://www.valor.com.br/brasil/3115096/inova-energia-recebe-r-123-bi-em-projetos, (accessed 20 May, 2013), S , R ‘S ’ v b í O G b M y

http://oglobo.globo.com/tecnologia/smart-grid-vai-turbinar-rede-eletrica-do-pais-4952797, (accessed 10 June, 2012).

Figure 5 Energy intensity (to e/R$ 1,000) Source: IBGE 2013

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been at the lowest levels since 2001 due to the lack of rain.25 As a result, many of the en- ergy system’s fossil-based back-up systems, that are mainly fuelled by natural gas, are now running on a permanent basis – and there are clear signs that they will continue to do so.

This raises some important questions regarding transitionary energy sources in general. At what point, and for what reason, will they become permanent solutions?

2.1.6 The waning ethanol market

Another energy sector that in the longer run may face similar threats from climate change is the bioenergy sector. At this point, however, the problems are of a different nature.

The Brazilian experience with ethanol as a transportation fuel for cars is well known, not the least for its climate change mitigation qualities. For that and other reasons, the Brazil- ian ethanol industry saw rapid expansion in the beginning of the last decade. Around 2009, however, there was a sharp decline in both production and investments that has prevailed until now. There are multiple and interacting explanations for this development. The prin- cipal reason, however, is that the government, in an effort to combat inflation, decided to keep gasoline prices artificially low.26 While this effectively subsidized the principal substitute to ethanol, the latter was no longer competitive, and the industry quickly lost both market shares and investors.

The consequences have been severe. One area of particular concern is the lack of invest- ments in research and innovation.27 This may ultimately threaten Brazil’s position as a technology leader in the field and, hence, the industry’s competitiveness also in the longer perspective. Instead of advancing in the area of second-generation biofuels, in which Bra- zil has an enormous potential, the industry is gradually lagging behind. More recently, there has been signs that the government is increasingly aware of the problem. This has, among other things generated a new regulatory regime, involving new tax incentives and extended funding to the sector.28 One major challenge is, in other words, how to stimulate investments in bioenergy in the shadow of the expanding oil and gas industry.

2.1.7 The emerging impacts of climate change

A final issue of growing concern for the energy sector is, as already indicated, climate change. This is called upon by some of the impacts emerging in the energy sector itself along with progress made in other areas.

As pointed out, climate change in Brazil has up to this date primarily been regarded a land- use issue. This, however, is now gradually changing, largely as a result of government policies related to the National Climate Law enacted in 2009, which stipulated a voluntary commitment to reduce its GHG emissions with 36.1–38.9 per cent (in relation to a BAU-

25 Taufer, P. (2013) Reservatórios das hidrelétricas estão no nível mais baixo desde 2001. Ibid.3 May.

http://g1.globo.com/jornal-da-globo/noticia/2013/05/reservatorios-das-hidreletricas-estao-no-nivel-mais- baixo-desde-2001.html, (accessed 4 June, 2013).

26 International Monetary Fund (2013) Case studies on energy subsidy reform: Lessons and implications. IMF, Washington, DC.

27 Pereira, R. (2011) Falta de investimento ameaça etanol. O Estado de São Paulo 22 May.

http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia%20brasil,falta-de-investimento-ameaca- etanol,68072,0.htm, (accessed 3 June, 2012).

28 Bitencourt, R., Borges, A. (2013) Governo traça novo 'regime' para o etanol. Valor Econômico 7 February.

http://www.valor.com.br/empresas/2998710/governo-traca-novo-regime-para-o-etanol, (accessed 17

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scenario) until 2020 and, similarly, to reduce deforestation in the Amazonas with 80 per cent until year 2020.29

A recent inventory of the Brazilian GHG emissions (Figure 6) shows that Brazil is already on its way to meet these goals. The deforestation rate has diminished by 84 per cent since 2004 and was in 2012 the lowest in 20 years (4,571 km2). This implies that Brazil in the period 2005–2010 achieved 76.1 per cent of its stated ambition to reduce deforestation. As a result, the country has also achieved 62 per cent of its goal to reduce the total emission of GHG gases by 36.1–38.9 per cent.30

Figure 6 Brazilian GHG emissions 1990–2010 in CO2eq

Source: MCTI, 2013

These achievements are now changing the larger climate change agenda in Brazil. Having, somewhat simplified, met its primary objective and solved the problems associated with deforestation, the government is now turning to three other outstanding issues. One of them is energy. The other two are competence building, including everything from ele- mentary schooling to scientific research, and climate change adaptation, which up to know has been largely neglected in the Brazilian debate. From the previous discussion it is ab- solutely clear that these issues are highly interrelated and also key to the larger ambition of achieving sustainable development. Hence it might be particularly interesting to follow the Brazilian debate on these issues.

2.2 Market conditions

The strategic policy choices outlined above will all be decided in a market context that, in the Brazilian case, is very much evolving. Consequently, to fully grasp the country’s energy policies one has to understand and recognize the structural changes that the Brazil- ian economy has seen over the last 15–20 years.

29 , , G , , R , R , R , R ff f v f Rural Credit Policy in the Brazilian Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative, Rio de Janeiro, RJ.

30 M v v f estufa no Brasil. MCTI, Brasília, DF.

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The starting point, in this case, is the reintroduction of democratic government in 1990, which in many ways evolved from the military regime’s (1964–1985) failed economic policies. After more than two decades of economic import-substitution policy, Brazil had in effect become economically and technologically isolated, with separate national stand- ards in various technology areas (among them television and information technology), while simultaneously a few large national companies dominated the internal market.31 The result was a stagnated economy characterized by low levels of innovation, increasing in- ternational isolation, and a waning degree of competitiveness.

To overcome these problems, the subsequent governments embarked on a radical privati- zation program for the entire economy. One of the more critical areas was the energy sec- tor that experienced major overhauls at the end of the 1990’s. The privatization of the electricity sector was initiated already in the beginning of the decade. Another critical achievement was the Petroleum Law of 1997 that also had repercussions on the biofuels sector.

The overarching ambition was, already from the outset, to spur innovation in the energy sector more generally, by creating market incentives in all parts of the value-chain. Conse- quently, these privatization efforts also followed a similar pattern in each of the sub- sectors, involving: 1) the privatization of previous state monopolies; 2) the creation of regulatory agencies; 3) a deregulation of prices; 4) termination of subsidies; 5) centralized venues for auctioning and purchase; and 6) some sort of public agency overseeing imple- mentation.

The results so far have been mixed and it is fair to say that some sectors are still trying to find the optimal balance between market incentives and government control. Moreover, it is not always clear whether existent problems in the implementation of policies are a func- tion of: 1) institutional arrangements; 2) administrative features, or; 3) political inter- vention. Many of the problems in the electricity sector, for example, seem to be a function of how the privatization was set up. In theory, distribution and generation are in this case open markets, while transmission is under public control. Yet, electricity generation is still very much in public hands. Similarly, it is clear that the problems in the ethanol sector partly results from an organizational restructuring, in which the administrative responsi- bility for the sector was transferred from the Ministry of Environment to the Ministry of Mines and Energy. This put the ethanol industry in direct competition with the expanding oil and gas sector. Finally, we have already seen how government de facto interfered with stated market policies by effectively deciding the price of gasoline. This illustrates, more than anything else, the political aspects associated with deregulation processes.

At the policy level, the energy issues are primarily in the hands of the Ministry of Mines and Energy. Yet, due to their strategic character there is also is specific government body, the Brazilian National Council of Energy Policy (CNPE) set up to advice the President of the Republic on energy issues in general and policies for the electric sector in particular.

CNPE, which is a direct result of the National Petroleum Law from 1997, is constituted by representatives from state governments, experts in energy, non-governmental organiza- tions, along with ministers from seven other ministries.

31 S , S v v , v í , v b G , í , -43.

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At the regulatory level, there are currently two regulatory agencies directly related to en- ergy issues, one for electricity (Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica) and another for petroleum and biofuels (Agência Nacional do Petróleo e Biocombustíveis). Also, there is a national commission for nuclear energy (Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear) that has a more incipient regulatory function. The overall logic of these arrangements is exempli- fied in Figure 7 that outlines the organizational structure of the electricity sector.

Yet, it is at the corporate level that the relative immaturity of the Brazilian energy market becomes most apparent. Despite the government’s intentions to unbundle the various parts of the value-chain, it still maintains monopoly control of some key sectors of the Brazilian energy complex as well as administered state control on certain energy prices. The present trend is that government intervention is de facto increasing.

The situation is most clearly illustrated by the former state monopolies, Eletrobrás and Petrobrás, which still hold dominant positions in key areas of the Brazilian energy econ- omy, including ownership in resource assets, generation, transmission, as well as local distribution companies. In both cases, commercial and political are also tightly aligned, with the government appointing the director of each company. The political influence is most clearly illustrated in the case of Petrobrás that, as already indicated, for a long time has served as the government’s tool to deter inflation, by keeping gasoline prices artifi- cially low. In doing so, it provided also, in effect, major subsidies for fossil fuels.32

The latter observation leads in turn over to the incentives for the development of renewable energy. Brazil has, as already noted, an enormous potential in the field and the present

32 International Monetary Fund (2013) Case studies on energy subsidy reform: Lessons and implications. IMF, Washington, DC.

Figure 7 Organizational chart Electricity Sector Source: ANEEL, 2012

Graph 6: “Organizational chart Electricity Sector”. Source: ANEEL, 2012.

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political rhetoric is to build on these assets to become a global example for ‘low-carbon economy’. To that end there are also a couple of government programs that specifically address this issue.

One is the Financial Support Program for Investments in Alternative Sources of Electric Energy (PROINFA) that was established in 2002 (Law 10,438/02 and Decree 4,551/02) with the ambition to diversify Brazil’s electricity sources – mainly in the form of wind power, biomass and small hydro plants – through the creation of a compulsory market for renewable energy. The program, which is now in its second phase, is administered by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME).33

A second program, similarly administered by MME, is the National Biodiesel Production

& Use Program (PNPB). This program, which builds largely from the experiences of PROÁLCOOL, was launched in 2003 with the ambition to gradually substitute petro- diesel with biodiesel, made from different oil-based crops such as castor beans, soybeans and palm oil. From the outset it also had a strong social component, aiming to stimulate small-scale farming in the impoverished Northeast.34

A third critical program in the Brazilian context is the Program for Low-Carbon Agri- culture (Plano ABC) that seeks to reduce CO2 emissions in the agriculture sector. The program, administered by the Ministry of Agriculture and established for the period 2010–

2020, holds seven focus areas, including: recovery of degraded land, biological fixation of nitrogen, and climate change adaptation.35

Finally, there is also a newly created program, Project Brazilian Hydrogen Bus, adminis- tered by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, which seeks to incentivize both the production and use of hydrogen as a fuel for bus transportation. It is too early to give the exact details of the program.36

Yet, it should be emphasized that these are by no means the only initiatives. On the con- trary, because of the multi-dimensional character renewable energy sources, these issues tend to appear also in other government programs and multiple agencies. The ethanol issue, for example, was at some point a central issue in eleven (!) different federal minis- tries. Similarly, there are parallel state programs that in particular circumstances may be even more influential than federal policies. Again, the ethanol issue is a good example, where the state of São Paulo has been absolutely central for the industry’s development.37 This overall picture makes it also difficult to get a clear estimate of the exact amount of money that Brazil invests in renewable energy. As we shall see, the situation is further complicated by the fact that the country’s entire innovation system currently is undergoing a major structuration. A recent study from KPMG indicates, however, that total invest- ments in 2010 reached USD 7 billion, which was effectively a decrease by 5 per cent from the previous year. The latter is, according to the study, explained by the ambition to con-

33 Moraes, L.d. (2005) Mais painéis elétricos para atender demanda por fontes alternativas. Jornal do Commercio. 30 May. LexisNexis, (accessed 29 October, 2006).

34 Maroun, C., Schaeffer, R. (2012) Emulating new policy goals into past successes: greenhouse gas emissions mitigation as a side-effect of biofuels programs in Brazil. Climate and Development 4, 187-198.

35 Ministério da Agricultura, P.e.A. (2013) Plano ABC. Mapa. http://www.agricultura.gov.br/desenvolvimento- sustentavel/plano-abc, (accessed 17 June, 2013, 2013).

36 Ministério de Minas e Energia (2013) Projeto ônibus brasileiro a hidrogênio. MME.

http://www.mme.gov.br/programas/onibus_hidrogenio, (accessed 13 June, 2013, 2013).

37 Furtado, A.T., Scandiffio, M.I.G., Cortez, L.A.B. (2011) The Brazilian sugarcane innovation system. Energy

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solidate the biofuel sector through mergers and acquisitions, which does not count as new investment.38

What is interesting to note, though, is that the Brazilian government, in its effort to pro- mote renewable energy, uses a comparatively limited number of policy instruments.39 One relates to different fiscal incentives, mainly in the form of tax reductions related to sales, purchase and import. Here, one should pay particular attention to the tax specific regime, R b v v v Fontes Alternativas de Energia (REINFA), set up stimulate the production and consump- tion of alternative energy. A second type of instruments concerns different forms of public financing. This certainly the predominant form and is usually carried out as public invest- ments, loans, or – occasionally – grants. One central actor in this context is, as we shall see, the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). Another instrument in this category is the public auctions that have been used for wind power, biodiesel, as well as for energy from small hydro plants. Finally, Brazil has also a longstanding tradition of using fuels blending as one form of regulatory policy. All gasoline in Brazil contains, for example, 25 per cent ethanol while diesel, similarly, comprises 5 per cent biodiesel. Interestingly, the use of regulatory instruments is otherwise limited. There are, for instance, no feed tariffs or man- dates.

2.3 Research, development and innovation

This brings us, finally, to the question regarding research, development and innovation.

This is, as already noted, an area that is currently undergoing a major restructuring in Bra- zil. The reason is, simply, that the country at the aggregate level ranks comparatively low on all of these items. More broadly, Brazil suffers from: 1) comparatively low investments in research, development and innovation; 2) a high regional concentration of research and development more generally; 3) a strong of concentration of research to public federal universities; 3) virtually no investments in research and innovation among private firms; 4) very little collaboration between academia and the private sector. Finally, there is also a widespread understanding of innovation as technology development (invention) plain and simple. What is important to note, though, is that there are sectors in which Brazil is highly innovative and competitive, i.e. aviation, mining and – of particular importance for this study – agriculture as well as oil and gas.40

While these structural problems constitute major impediments to the Brazil’s competitive- ness, the government has in recent years made considerable efforts to stimulate, primarily, innovation. This is reflected in both increased financial investments as well as considerable institutional changes in the Brazilian innovation system. One critical piece of the latter institutional change is, as we shall see, the creation of an umbrella program called Inovar Empresa, which is intended to unify and coordinate different innovation initiatives. The exact implications of this new framework is, though, still unclear.

Yet, there are a couple of component that are of particular interest in this context.

One is the system of sector funds, originally created between 1999–2002, which was one of the first attempts to stimulate private research in areas related to sustainable develop- ment more broadly. The system itself, which is made up by 16 funds (14 from different

38 KPMG (2012) Taxes and incentives for renewable energy. KPMG, Amsterdam.

39 Ibid.

40 Cruz, C.H.d.B., Chaimovich, H. (2010) Brazil, UNESCO Science Report 2010: The Current Status of Science around the World. UNESCO, Paris, pp. 103-121.

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economic sectors and 2 transversal), is financed via taxation of companies that base their revenues on the exploitation of natural resources. These companies can thereafter seek research funding in collaboration with universities via the Brazilian Research Council (FINEP) and the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).

At least four of the established funds – energy, hydro, petrol, and transportation – are of direct relevance to the broader energy issue. Their total value was 8.8 billion SEK (BRL 2.74 billion) in year 2010.41

A second venue of potential interest is the recently established program Inovar Energia that constitutes one piece of the previously mentioned Inovar Empresa. The former has in many respects served as a test case for this new institutional arrangement and, so far, the response has been positive with more project applications than anticipated. The program itself provides a total financing of 9.6 billion SEK (BRL 3 billion) in three different areas:

1) smart grids and ultra-high-voltage electricity transmission; 2) alternative energy; and 3) hybrid and energy efficient vehicles.42

Third, one cannot discuss research, development and innovation in the Brazilian energy sector without mentioning the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). This is by far the largest credit provider in Brazil and also the direct arm of the federal government. As such, it has considerable interest and influence in all aspects of energy production. Also, it illus- trates the government’s preference of using credits as their principal policy instrument.

Fourth, it is similarly important to stress the influence of existent funding mechanisms at the state level. The most influential is certainly the so-called Fundação Amparo de Pesquisa (FAP) that exists in almost all states. Their influence may vary but they are, im- portantly, central actors in São Paulo (FAPESP), Rio de Janeiro (FAPRJ) and Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG). What makes the FAP’s particularly interesting is their independent role. Being effectively free to decide who to finance and work with, they have a unique opportunity to influence the research agenda.

Finally, one has to stress the influence of some corporate actors in the area of energy re- search. The most important is, without any doubt, Petrobrás that is currently investing heavily in oil and gas technology – but also in renewable energy. Only in 2012, the com- pany invested more than 7 billion SEK (BRL 2.2 billion) into research and development.

This represented in effect a decrease of 7.4 per cent from 2011.43 One important piece of this effort is the investments in the company’s research centre (CENPES) in Rio de Janeiro, around which a powerful research cluster is now emerging, including also other actors such as General Electric, Halliburton-Siemens, EMC Computer Systems, Tenaris and Confab.44 (Soares, 2010). A similar role can be ascribed to the former electricity monopoly, Eletrobrás, which also has established major research centres, among them in conjunction with the Itaipú dam.

41 FINEP (2013) O que são os fundos. http://www.mct.gov.br/index.php/content/view/725.html, (accessed 13 June, 2013).

42 Polito, R. (2013) Inova Energia recebe R$ 12,3 bi em projetos. Valor Econômico 8 May.

http://www.valor.com.br/brasil/3115096/inova-energia-recebe-r-123-bi-em-projetos, (accessed 20 May, 2013).

43 Montenegro, J. (2013) Petrobras reduz investimentos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento. Energia hoje 5 February. http://energiahoje.editorabrasilenergia.com/news/empresas/produtos/2013/02/petrobras-reduz- investimentos-em-pesquisa-e-desenvolvimento-452576.html, (accessed 13 June, 2013).

44 Soares, P. (2010) Espaço para centros de pesquisa do pré-sal se esgota no Rio. Folha de São Paulo 14 June.

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/929930-espaco-para-centros-de-pesquisa-do-pre-sal-se-esgota-no-

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3 Main observations and recommendations for

“further research”

Energy issues are, as the previous discussion has shown, at the centre of the contemporary Brazilian policy agenda – for a number of reasons. Clearly, Brazil is currently in a forma- tive moment with respect to its future development model and in this discussion energy plays is central role. What does it mean to exploit the Presál oil and gas reserve in a sustainable way? Is the continued expansion of large hydropower plants a solution or a dead end? What are the practical steps needed to achieve a low-carbon economy? These are only a few questions behind set of critical strategic choices that Brazil is about to make.

In addition, Brazil has a number of characteristics that also makes it different from most other countries. Most importantly, its clean energy profile allows us in a sense to ‘look into the future’ insofar that it forces us to think about what to do when all the ‘low-hanging fruits’ have been picked. Moreover, due to its socio-economic diversity it provides an illustration of the global challenge related to sustainable development and energy. How do you fight the effects of ‘under development’ and ‘over development’ at the same time?

Given these broader observations, there is a set of issues that seems particularly rewarding for future research.

Some of them are more explicitly related to concrete issue area or economic sectors. This is also where the Brazilian case may be particularly interesting as such.

One concerns the nexus between land-use issues (LULUCF), energy and water. This is an area that is becoming increasingly critical, not the least as scientific advancements come to question our established conceptions of sectors. Certainly, agriculture produc- tion refers no longer necessarily to food. Hence, the question the question is what this means for questions related to: regional development, regulation, industry structure etc.

A second issue relates to second-generation biofuels, an area where Brazil has an enor- mous potential and a particular interest to collaborate with Swedish researchers. Here, the focus should probably be on cellulose in the forestry sector, rather than sugarcane ethanol, since the former is an area that is rapidly expanding also in Brazil. Similarly, one could conceive of projects related to green chemistry and material science.

A third potential focus is energy and climate change through the lens of water management. Climate change is already becoming a critical issue in Brazil and the water issue is, again, very much in center of the debate. Interestingly, that has not al- ways been the case in the global debate, wherefore this opens up an opportunity. The framing is interesting insofar that it allows for discussion regarding, or even linking of, both mitigation and adaptation.

Finally, there seem to be an opportunity to proceed also in the area of energy and industrial waste/biogas. A critical point here is the new law from last year that obliges Brazilian municipalities to take care of its waste. Currently, there is no preparation for this and these technologies may provide an opportunity.

To conclude, there is also a set of issues that are more problem-oriented and, consequently, allows for comparisons between Growth Analysis’ different offices.

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One such are concerns the noti f ‘ y’. What does that mean? When does a technology become permanent? What are the critical factors in play, socio- economic and others? One possible illustration from the Brazilian horizon could be the case of natural gas.

A second theme relates to the broader discussion regarding development concerns and social priorities as a driver for energy policy. This is, as already indicated, a central theme in Brazilian energy policies, where social electrification programs, such as

‘Light for All’, go hand in hand with, for example, the mentioned investments in Présal.

Finally, there seems to an opportunity to broaden the debate on energy and sustain- ability by also discussing the impacts of different decision and implementation models.

In this case, one could, for instance, consider comparative studies between different energy sectors.

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References

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