,W 5AN#W,5
#,+A,A 6 ,W5
5Ow 6 ,W5 # ,+Ww w`
BA,+B NWV,+5WAv
2D
5,A5 6 +,W 5VWB
aL@? _*ih
A**@}?@_ 4?@ uLh@*_h@hc
+L*@?_ LU w??i@ _*ih
Mt|h@U|
At |itt _i@*t | @hLt @tTiU|t Lu 4@UhLiUL?L4U t@?} W| UL?tt|t Lu @?
?|hL_U|L? @?_ uLh ti*uUL?|@?i_ T@Tiht
@Tih Wc R6hL4 U*Lti_ |L LTi? _LLh TL*U)G ? i4ThU@* t|_) Lu ?@<t ?|ih
?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)c bDHbHc t @? i4ThU@* @TT*U@|L? Lu |i LTi? iUL?L4) Tih4@?i?| ?UL4i )TL|itt EWO Ai ThTLti Lu |t T@Tih t |L ti |i WO
|L |it| @?_ 4i@thi |i _i}hii Lu ?@<t ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) _h?}
|i TihL_ bDHbH W? UL?|h@t| |L @** ThiLt !?L? UL?|h) t|_it t?} |t uh@4iLh!c |i )TL|itt |@| U@T|@* @t Mii? @| *i@t| 4LM*i i?L} |L @**L uLh LT|4@* UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} Mi@Lh t hiiU|i_ W? |t 4L_i*c | @TTi@ht |@|
@ UL?|h) i Tihi?Uit tMLT|4@**) *L U@T|@* 4LM*|) L?*) i? tiihi hit|hU
|L?t @hi T*@Ui_ L? |i U@T|@* @UUL?|c @t ? |i U@ti Lu ?@ @h|@* M@hhiht
|L ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4Li4i?|t _L ?L| ?iUitt@h*) 4T*) ?@M*|) |L t4LL|
UL?t4T|L? LT|4@**)
@Tih WWc RAi LTi? iUL?L4) i Uitt ti?t||) )TL|ittG AiLh) @?_ 5i_t
i_i?Uic i |i?_t |i |iLh) Lu LTi? iUL?L4) UL?t4T|L? Mi@Lh M) @TT*)?}
6*@?<t Ebb i Uitt ti?t||) )TL|itt E,5O |L |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| Ai ,5O U@? Mi ?|ihThi|i_ @t @ }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i WO |@| @**Lt uLh @?) _i}hii Lu
?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) t tUc |i ,5O U@? @UUL?| uLh ) |i WO u@*t
@?_ uLh |i hi*@|i_ T33*i Lu @? Ri Uitti*) L*@|*i Uhhi?| @UUL?| 6h|ih4Lhic
|i ,5O t}}it|t @? @*|ih?@|i @TThL@U uLh @ttitt?} @ UL?|h)<t _i}hii Lu ?|ih
?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) Nt?} @??@* 5i_t _@|@ uLh |i TihL_ bDbbc |i i4ThU@* hit*|t 4T*) |@|c ? UL?|h@t| |L |i WOc |i ,5O U@??L| Mi hiiU|i_
Ai hit*|t t}}it| |@| 5i_i?<t _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) t }ih
|@? |i _i}hii |@| t TihuiU| @UULh_?} |L |i WO
@Tih WWWc RAi WO @?_ |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|LG L?|i @h*L 5|_)c
i@*@|it |i ULih@}i @UUh@U) Lu t4@**t@4T*i UL?_i?Ui ?|ih@*t uLh |i t|@?
_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L t44@h) t|@|t|U At t |i t|@|t|U |@| t ti_ |L |it|
@?_ 4i@thi |i _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) ? |i WO uh@4iLh!
Ahii 4i|L_t @hi UL?t_ihi_ |L UL?t|hU| |i UL?_i?Ui ?|ih@*tG |i @t)4T|L|U _i*|@ 4i|L_c +?!*i<t EbH. t|@?_@h_ MLL|t|h@T 4i|L_c @?_ k*@?<t EbbH M@t
ULhhiU|i_ MLL|t|h@T@u|ihMLL|t|h@T 4i|L_ L?|i @h*L t4*@|L?t t}}it| |@|
|i @t)4T|L|U _i*|@ 4i|L_ t ?hi*@M*i @?_ |@| hiti@hUiht tL*_ h@|ih ti M@tULhhiU|i_ MLL|t|h@T UL?_i?Ui ?|ih@*t i? 4@!?} ?uihi?Ui uhL4 |i t|@?
_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L
@Tih WVc RO@t 5i_i?<t }Lih?4i?| M_}i| TL*U) Mii? |LL _tUhi|L?@h)q ,
_i?Ui uhL4 @ }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i |@ t4LL|?} )TL|ittc _i@*t | |i t@?}
Mi@Lh Lu |i }Lih?4i?| @hhL<t Eb.b |@ t4LL|?} )TL|itt EA5O @t
t4it |@| |i }Lih?4i?| t @*@)t tMiU| |L @? RLT|4@* _i}hii Lu _tUhi|L?
? M_}i| TL*U)c ic LT|4@* ? |i ti?ti |@| | 4?43it |i i*u@hi ULt|t uhL4
|@ @|L? @Tih WV ThLTLtit @ }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i A5O |@| hi*@ it |t UhU@*
@tt4T|L? Lt|@h i_i?Ui uLh 5i_i? ?_U@|it |@| ? UL?|h@t| |L |i A5Oc
|i }i?ih@*3i_ 4L_i* ThL_it U*Lti |L @ TihuiU| |G A@ t4LL|?} Mi@Lh ?
UL4M?@|L? | 4Lhi _tUhi|L? ? M_}i| TL*U) hi*@|i |L @| t LT|4@*c U@?
i T*@? @** tu|t ? |i Ui?|h@* }Lih?4i?|<t M_}i| M@*@?Uic ?U*_?} |i _h@4@|U tu|t _h?} |i TihL_ b.fbS
U!?L*i_}i4i?|t
6ht| Lu @** W @4 }hi@|*) ?_iM|i_ |L 4) tTihtLhc h?i }t|i?c uLh t }_@?Ui
@?_ UL?t|@?| tTTLh| h?i @t ? @ UL?t|hU|i 4@??ih i*Ti_ 4i _i|ih4?i
i|ih 4) _i@t uLh T@Tiht ihi ui@tM*i `i?iih W @i ?ii_i_ i*Tc i @t
@*@)t Mii? @UUittM*i uLh _tUttL? @?_ i?ULh@}i4i?|c @?_ i @t @*tL i*Ti_ 4i
| |i u?_?} Lu tiih@* Lu 4) ThLiU|t 6Lh @** )Lh tTTLh|c h?ic W @4 uLhiih }h@|iu*
h?i @*tL ?|hL_Ui_ 4i |L ht|LTih _@4c @?_ W t |L |@?! ht uLh @ }hi@| *Ui?|@|i ti4?@h @?_ uLh t i Ui**i?| UL44i?|t L? 4) i@h*) Lh! W @*tL t
|L |@?! ?_iht Vhi_? uLh t i*T _h?} |i tiUL?_ )i@h Lu |i # ThL}h@4
?_iht @?_ W @_ @ ULT*i Lu ih) t|4*@|?} _tUttL?tc @?_c @t | |h?i_ L|c i
?|hL_Ui_ 4i |L tL4i Lu |i |LTUt Lu |t |itt
W @4 ih) |@?!u* |L U@i* ih}4@? uLh t tiu* UL44i?|t L? @ 4@Lh T@h| Lu |i |itt( |L #U! #hi@**c Oi?h) *ttL?c wi??@h| 6*LL_c #L}*@t O
MMtc L 5LL @?_ ht|ih w?}@** uLh }i?ih@* i*Tc UL44i?|t @?_ t}}it|L?t
@| @hLt t|@}it W @4 @*tL ih) |@?!u* |L ,@wi?@ i|aL@?ttL? uLh @** ih
@_4?t|h@|i @ttt|@?Ui ,@wi?@c |<t }hi@| |L @i )L @hL?_ |i LUi- 6?@**)c W t |L |@?! ??@ h?!c 5t@??@ w?_t|hL4c J t@ wLu}hi?c 6h@?UtUL
*T3@hc @||@t ,h*@?_ttL?c Oi?h! O@44@hc *@ *ttL?c @?_c Lu ULhtic |i 566
`|L| |i @4t?} _tUttL?tc |i @u|ihLh!tc @?_ @** |i L|ih tLU@* @U||itc W _LM| |t |itt L*_ iih @i Mii? UL4T*i|i_
6?@?U@* tTTLh| uhL4 |i +U@h_ @*4t|i? 6L?_@|L? t }h@|iu**) @U
!?L*i_}i_
BL|iMLh}c #iUi4Mih 2ff2 aL@? _*ih
L?|i?|t
W?|hL_U|L? @?_ t44@h)
ihi
2 544@h) Lu |i |itt e
+iuihi?Uit S
@Tih W
6hL4 U*Lti_ |L LTi? _LLh TL*U)G ? i4ThU@* t|_) Lu
?@<t ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)c bDHbH b
W?|hL_U|L? f
2 AiLh)
,4ThU@* it|4@|L? @?_ hit*|t H
e L?U*tL?t 2D
TTi?_ 2S
+iuihi?Uit 2.
@Tih WW
Ai LTi? iUL?L4) i Uitt ti?t||) )TL|ittG
AiLh) @?_ 5i_t i_i?Ui
W?|hL_U|L? 2
2 Ai LTi? iUL?L4) i Uitt ti?t||) )TL|itt e
2 Ai 4L_i* e
22 ,4ThU@* 4i|L_ uLh i@*@|?} |i ,5O ef 2 , Uitt ti?t||) @?_ ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) e
,4ThU@* it|4@|L? @?_ hit*|t eb
e L?U*_?} hi4@h!t DS
+iuihi?Uit DH
@Tih WWW
Ai WO @?_ |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|LG
L?|i @h*L t|_) S
W?|hL_U|L? S2
2 Ai t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L S
Ai 4i|L_t UL?t_ihi_ SD
Ai _i*|@ 4i|L_ SD
2 LL|t|h@T 4i|L_t SS
e Ai L?|i @h*L t|_) S.
D L?U*_?} hi4@h!t .f
TTi?_ .
+iuihi?Uit .
@Tih WV
O@t 5i_i?<t }Lih?4i?| M_}i| TL*U) Mii? |LL _tUhi|L?@h)q
,_i?Ui uhL4 @ }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i |@ t4LL|?} )TL|itt .D
W?|hL_U|L? .S
2 }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i |@ t4LL|?} )TL|itt Hf
,4ThU@* 4i|L_ HH
e ,t|4@|L? @?_ hit*|t b
D L?U*_?} hi4@h!t bS
TTi?_ b.
+iuihi?Uit bH
W?|hL_U|L? @?_ t44@h)
5@?}c U itti?|@**) U@? Mi |L}| Lu @t u|hi UL?t4T|L?c UL?t|||it L?i Lu |i 4Lt| 4TLh|@?| T@h|t Lu |i iUL?L4U t)t|i4 N?_iht|@?_?} t@?} @?_
UL?t4T|L? t UhU@* uLh ?_iht|@?_?} L |i iUL?L4)c ?U*_?} @h@M*it tU
@t B# @?_ ?i4T*L)4i?|c iL*it Lih |4i W? itti?Uic t@?} @?_ UL?t4T|L?
_iUtL?t @hi Ui?|h@* |L |i t|@?_@h_t Lu *?} ? |i *L?} h?
ihi
W? |t |itt W Thiti?| uLh ti*uUL?|@?i_ T@Tiht |@| t|_) @?_ |it| @hLt @t
TiU|t Lu uLh U*Lti*) hi*@|i_ )TL|itit Lu 4@UhLiUL?L4U t@?} Mi@LhG |i LTi?
iUL?L4) Tih4@?i?| ?UL4i )TL|itt EWOc |i LTi? iUL?L4) i Uitt ti?t||)
)TL|itt E,5Oc |i |@ t4LL|?} )TL|itt EA5Oc @?_ |i }i?ih@*3i_ |@
t4LL|?} )TL|itt EBA5O ?i @tTiU| Lu |iti )TL|itit |@| t ti_ hiTi@|
i_*) |hL}L| |i |ittc t |L i |i4 @t Mi?} h@|L?@* i TiU|@|L?t Thiti?|
@*i 4L_i*t Lu |i uLh4
V
' E *
[
H
{[
> E
ihi t @ !?L? _tUL?| u@U|Lhc * t @? it|4@M*i T@h@4i|ihc H
t |i i TiU
|@|L?t LTih@|Lhc { t |i ht| _gihi?Ui LTih@|Lhc [
t @? LMtih@M*i i L}i?Lt t|LU@t|U @h@M*ic @?_ V
t |i LMtih@M*i i?_L}i?Lt t@?} @h@M*i Lu ?|ihit|
W? |i U@ti Lu |i WO @?_ ,5Oc V
t |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| @?_ [
t @? ?UL4i 4i@thic @?_ |i h}| @?_ t_i Lu E t ThiUi_i_ M) @ 4?t t}? W? |i U@ti Lu
|i A5O @?_ BA5Oc V
t |i }Lih?4i?|<t M_}i| thT*t @?_ [
t }Lih?4i?|
Wkh _rshq hfrqrp|% suh{ lv xvhg rqo| lqlwldoo| wr vwuhvv wkdw lq wklv wkhvlv/ wkh SLK dqg wkh HVK h{dplqh fkdqjhv lq d frxqwu|*v qhw iruhljq dvvhwv/ l1h1/ wkh fxuuhqw dffrxqw/ vxemhfw wr fkdqjhv lq d eurdg lqfrph phdvxuh1 Pdq| sdshuv wkdw iroorz iurp Iulhgpdq*v +4<8:, dqg Kdoo*v +4<:;, vhplqdo zrun/ lqfoxglqj wkrvh e| Fdpsehoo +4<;:, dqg Iodylq +4<;4/ 4<<6,/ duh frqfhuqhg zlwk d glhuhqw dvshfw ri wkh SLK/ qdpho| wkh dffxpxodwlrq ri sulydwh zhdowk ri doo nlqgv lq uhvsrqvh wr
xfwxdwlrqv lq diwhu0wd{ oderu lqfrph1 Vxfk vwxglhv duh riwhq uhihuuhg wr dv wkh SLK lq d forvhg hfrqrp| frqwh{w1
i Ti?_|hic ML| i Thitti_ @t uh@U|L?t Lu L|T|c @?_ |i h}| @?_ t_i Lu E t ThiUi_i_ M) @ TLt|i t}?
Ai u?_@4i?|@* @tt4T|L? Lu @** uLh )TL|itit t |i iUL?L4U @}i?|<t Rt4LL|?} Mi@Lhc @?_ |t t @? @tt4T|L? |@| @*@)t L*_t |L tL4i i
|i?| @t *L?} @t * ? W? |i U@ti Lu |i WO @?_ ,5Oc |i @}i?| t @ UL?|h) Lh
@ hiThiti?|@|i R?@|L?@* ?__@* |@| t4LL|t UL?t4T|L? 6hL4 Ec |t 4i@?t |@| i? u|hi ?UL4i t i TiU|i_ |L ?Uhi@tic |L_@)<t UL?t4T|L? t hi
ti_ T@h_ M) 4i@?t Lu MLhhL?} @MhL@_c U 4T*it |@| |L_@)<t Uhhi?|
@UUL?| }Lit ?|L @ _iU| W? |t @)c ?t|i@_ Lu @|?} ?|* |i @U|@* ?Uhi@ti
? ?UL4i 4@|ih@*3itc |L_@)<t UL?t4T|L? U@? Mi ?Uhi@ti_ A@| tc M) MLhhL
?} @MhL@_c | t TLttM*i uLh |i UL?|h) @t @ L*i |L t4LL| UL?t4T|L? Lih
|4i W? |i U@ti Lu |i A5O @?_ BA5Oc |i }Lih?4i?| t4LL|t |i |@ h@|i 6Lh
?t|@?Uic i? }Lih?4i?| i Ti?_|hi t i TiU|i_ |L ?Uhi@tic |i A5O @?_ BA5O
4T*) |@| |i |@ h@|i t t4LL|i_ M) 4i@?t Lu h???} @ M_}i| thT*t
@4TMi** EbH. @?_ @4TMi** @?_ 5**ih EbH. _ii*LT @ 4i|L_ |L |it| |i
4T*U@|L?t Lu t|LU@t|U Thiti?| @*i 4L_i*t tU @t E ) 4i@?t Lu E @?_ @
iU|Lh @|Lhi}hittL? EV+ uLh |i M@h@|i E{[
c V
ThLUittc L?i U@? U@*U*@|i @
|iLhi|U@* Lh Thi_U|i_ |4i tihit Lu V
Ai iUL?L4U t}?U@?Ui Lu |i 4L_i* U@?
|i? Mi i@*@|i_ M) UL4T@h?} |i Thi_U|i_ t@?} tihit | |i @U|@* t@?}
tihit ? @ |4i tihit T*L| Wu |i ?_ih*)?} )TL|itt t |hic ic u E L*_tc |i Thi_U|i_ @?_ @U|@* tihit tL*_ UL?U_i Ai t|@|t|U@* t}?U@?Ui Lu |i 4L_i*
U@? Mi i@*@|i_ M) |it|?} |i UhLtti^@|L? hit|hU|L?t Lu |i V+ |@| @hi
4T*i_ M) E Ai _t|?U|L? Mi|ii? iUL?L4U @?_ t|@|t|U@* t}?U@?Ui U@? Mi
4TLh|@?| MiU@tic @t @4TMi** @?_ 5**ih EbH. TL?| L|c ii? u |i )TL|itt
|@| i t|_) t t|@|t|U@**) hiiU|i_c | t i?|hi*) TLttM*i |@| |i Thi_U|i_ |4i
Htxdwlrq +4, zdv uvw ghulyhg e| Fdpsehoo +4<;:, dqg Fdpsehoo dqg Vkloohu +4<;:,1 Lw lv d wudqvirupdwlrq ri wkh vwdqgdug suhvhqw ydoxh prgho irupxodwlrq +fi1 Fdpsehoo dqg Vkloohu/ 4<;:,1 Suhvhqw ydoxh prghov ri d vlplodu vwuxfwxuh dv wkh rqhv lq wklv wkhvlv lqfoxgh wkh h{shfwdwlrqv wkhru|
iru lqwhuhvw udwhv/ wkh suhvhqw ydoxh prgho ri vwrfn uhwxuqv/ wkh prqhwdu| prgho ri h{fkdqjh udwhv/
wkh Fdjdq prgho ri k|shulqdwlrq/ dqg olqhdu txdgudwlf dgmxvwphqw frvw prghov1 Iru d uhfhqw vxuyh| ri wkhvh prghov/ vhh Hqjvwhg +5335,1
2
tihit Lu V
_Lit Thi||) i** ? |h@U!?} |i @U|@* tihit Atc ii? |L} |i
)TL|itt ?_ih t|_) t t|@|t|U@**) hiiU|i_c |i 4L_i* 4@) t|** UL?|hM|i |L Lh ?_iht|@?_?} Lu |i t@?} Mi@Lh |@| i @hi |h)?} |L i T*@?
BLt EbbD tit |i @4TMi**5**ih 4i|L_ @?_ |i WO |L UL?t|hU| @ 4i@thi @?_ @ |it| Lu |i _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) Ai 4i@thi t |i h@|L Lu |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? ELh @h@?Ui Lu |i Thi_U|i_ Uhhi?| @UUL?| |L |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? ELh @h@?Ui Lu |i @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| UULh_?} |L BLtc
|t t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L U@T|hit |i i |i?| |L U |i _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@*
U@T|@* 4LM*|) _i@|it uhL4 |i _i}hii |@| t TihuiU| @UULh_?} |L |i WO Wu |i 4L_i* t |hic ic u |i WO ?U*_?} |i @tt4T|L? Lu TihuiU| U@T|@* 4LM*|)
t |hic |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L tL*_ i^@* ?|) `i? |i h@|L t @MLi
?|)c |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? Lu |i @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| t *Lih |@? |i t|@?_@h_
_i@|L? Lu |i Thi_U|i_ Uhhi?| @UUL?| At t}}it|t tMLT|4@**) *L U@T|@*
4LM*|) @?_ |i Thiti?Ui Lu igiU|i M@hhiht |L ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4Li4i?|t
? |i L|ih @?_c @ }ih t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? Lu |i @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| hi*@|i
|L |i Thi_U|i_ Uhhi?| @UUL?|c ic @ h@|L Mi*L ?|)c ?_U@|it @ }ih _i}hii Lu U@T|@* 4LM*|) |@? |i _i}hii |@| t TihuiU| @UULh_?} |L |i WO BLt @h}it
|@| |t Ri Uitt L*@|*|) Lu |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| 4@) t}}it| |@| tTiU*@|L? t
|L tL4i i |i?| @ _h?} uLhUi Mi?_ U@T|@* Lt
Ai i Uitt L*@|*|) Lu |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| @?_ |i hi*@|i_ u@*hi Lu |i WO
t @? i4ThU@* T33*ic @| *i@t| ? 4Lt| ?_t|h@*3i_ UL?|hit E5igh? @?_ `LLc
bbf( ||Lc bb2( BLtc bbD( @?_ Mt|ui*_ @?_ +L}Lgc bbDc bbS 6Lh _ii*LT
?} UL?|hitc |i 4L_i* @TTi@ht |L TihuLh4 Mi||ih BLt @?_ t|h) EbbD @TT*)
|i 4L_i* |L uLh|)i _ii*LT?} UL?|hit ?U*_?} 4@?) | tL4i uLh4 Lu hi
t|hU|L?t T*@Ui_ L? |ih ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* Lt Ai) ?_ |@| uLh @ 4@Lh|)
|i WO U@??L| Mi hiiU|i_c t}}it|?} |@| U@T|@* 4LM*|) t tUi?|*) } |L
@**L uLh LT|4@* UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} W? u@U|c @** !?L? ThiLt t|_it 4i@
th?} U@T|@* 4LM*|) M) 4i@?t Lu BLt<t EbbD 4i|L_ @i }i?ih@**) Mii?
?@M*i |L t|@|t|U@**) UL?U*_i tMLT|4@**) *L ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)
2 544@h) Lu |i |itt
@Tih Wc R6hL4 U*Lti_ |L LTi? _LLh TL*U)G ? i4ThU@* t|_) Lu ?@<t ?|ih?@
|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)c bDHbHc t @ t|h@}|uLh@h_ i4ThU@* @TT*U@|L? Lu |i
WO Nt?} BLt<t EbbD 4i|L_c |i ThTLti Lu |i T@Tih t |L |it| @?_ 4i@
thi |i _i}hii Lu ?@<t ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) _h?} |i TihL_ bDHbH
Ai hit*|t ?_U@|i |@| ? UL?|h@t| |L @** ThiLt t|_it t?} |t uh@4iLh!c
|i )TL|itt |@| U@T|@* @t Mii? @| *i@t| 4LM*i i?L} |L @**L uLh LT|4@*
UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} Mi@Lh t hiiU|i_ W? t44@h)c |@!i? |L}i|ih | Thi
Lt t|_it | @TTi@ht |@| ? |i WO 4L_i* @ UL?|h) i Tihi?Uit tMLT|4@**)
*L U@T|@* 4LM*|) L?*) i? tiihi hit|hU|L?t @hi T*@Ui_ L? |i U@T|@* @UUL?|c
@t ? |i U@ti Lu ?@ @h|@* M@hhiht |L ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4Li4i?|t _L ?L|
?iUitt@h*) 4T*) ?@M*|) |L t4LL| UL?t4T|L? LT|4@**) W? u@U|c *itt hit|hU|i UL?|hL*t 4@) ii? *i@_ |L i Uitti U@T|@* Lt
Ai ThTLti Lu @Tih WWc RAi LTi? iUL?L4) i Uitt ti?t||) )TL|ittG Ai
Lh) @?_ 5i_t i_i?Uic t |L |h) |L @UUL?| uLh |i u@*hi Lu |i WO @?_ |i hi*@|i_ T33*i Lu @? i Uitti*) L*@|*i Uhhi?| @UUL?| M) @TT*)?} 6*@?<t Ebb i Uitt ti?t||) )TL|itt E,5O |L |i LTi? iUL?L4) ti||?} W| t @h}i_ |@|
|i ,5O U@? Mi ?|ihThi|i_ @t @ }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i WO |@| @**Lt uLh @?) _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) t tUc |i ,5O U@? @UUL?| uLh ) |i WO u@*t @?_ uLh |i hi*@|i_ T33*i Lu @? i Uitti*) L*@|*i Uhhi?| @UUL?| A@| tc
|i ,5O ThL_it @ uLh4@*3@|L? Lu BLt<t EbbD @h}4i?| |@| |i u@*hi Lu
|i WO t _i |L |i L*@|L? Lu |i @tt4T|L? Lu TihuiU| ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@*
4LM*|) 6h|ih4Lhic |i ,5O t}}it|t @? @*|ih?@|i @TThL@U uLh @ttitt?} @ UL?|h)<t _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)
Nt?} @??@* 5i_t _@|@ uLh |i TihL_ bDbbc |i i4ThU@* hit*|t Lu @Tih WW 4T*) |@|c ? UL?|h@t| |L |i WOc |i ,5O U@??L| Mi hiiU|i_ Ai hit*|t
e
t}}it| |@| 5i_i?<t _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) t }ih |@? |i _i}hii |@| t TihuiU| @UULh_?} |L |i WO 6L**L?} BLt EbbDc L?i TLttM*i i T*@?@|L? 4@) Mi |@|c ? @__|L? |L U@?}it ? iUL?L4U u?_@4i?|@*tc |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| t @*tL |L tL4i i |i?| _hi? M) tTiU*@|i U@T|@* Lt
@Tih WWWc RAi WO @?_ |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|LG L?|i @h*L t|_)c
_i@*t | @ Thi iUL?L4i|hU tti |@| @ hiti@hUih t UL?uhL?|i_ | i? 4@!
?} t|@|t|U@* ?uihi?Ui uhL4 L? |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L t ?L|i_ @MLic
|it|?} |i WO ?L*it |i it|4@|L? Lu @ V+ uLh |i M@h@|i ThLUitt E{[
c V
Ai t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L t @ t44@h) t|@|t|U |@| t @ }*) ?L?
*?i@h u?U|L? Lu |i ULiUi?|t Lu |t V+ t @h}i_ M) i!@ih| i| @* Ebb.
@?_ k*@? EbbHc MiU@ti Lu |t ?L?*?i@h|) @?_ MiU@ti Lu M@t ? |i V+
T@h@4i|ihtc ? t4@** t@4T*itc @t)4T|L|U |iLh) 4@) Mi ?hi*@M*i i? 4@!?}
?uihi?Ui Ai ThTLti Lu |t T@Tih t |L ?it|}@|i |t 4@||ih M) i@*@|?}
|i ULih@}i @UUh@U) Lu t4@**t@4T*i UL?_i?Ui ?|ih@*t uLh |i t|@?_@h_ _i
@|L? h@|L Ahii 4i|L_t @hi ti_ |L UL?t|hU| |i UL?_i?Ui ?|ih@*tG |i
@t)4T|L|U _i*|@ 4i|L_c +?!*i<t EbH. t|@?_@h_ MLL|t|h@T 4i|L_c @?_ k*@?<t EbbH M@tULhhiU|i_ RMLL|t|h@T@u|ihMLL|t|h@T 4i|L_ L?|i @h*L t4*@|L?t t}}it| |@| |i @t)4T|L|U _i*|@ 4i|L_ t ?hi*@M*i @?_ |@| hiti@hUiht tL*_
h@|ih ti M@tULhhiU|i_ MLL|t|h@T UL?_i?Ui ?|ih@*t i? 4@!?} ?uihi?Ui uhL4
|i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L
Ai ThTLti Lu @Tih WVc RO@t 5i_i?<t }Lih?4i?| M_}i| TL*U) Mii? |LL _tUhi|L?@h)q ,_i?Ui uhL4 @ }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu |i |@ t4LL|?} )TL|ittc
t |L ThLTLti @ }i?ih@*3@|L? Lu @hhL<t Eb.b |@ t4LL|?} )TL|itt EA5O
@?_ |i? i4ThU@**) |it| i|ih | U@? i T*@? |i tu|t ? |i 5i_t Ui?|h@*
}Lih?4i?|<t M_}i| M@*@?Ui _h?} hiUi?| _iU@_it Ai A5O 4T*U|*) @tt4it
|@| |i }Lih?4i?| t @*@)t tMiU| |L @? RLT|4@* _i}hii Lu _tUhi|L? ? M_}i|
TL*U)c ic LT|4@* ? |i ti?ti |@| | 4?43it |i i*u@hi ULt|t uhL4 |@ @|L?
) UL?|h@t|c |i }i?ih@*3i_ |@ t4LL|?} )TL|itt EBA5O ThLTLti_ ? |t
D
T@Tih |@!it ?|L @UUL?| |i TLttM*|) |@| @ |@ t4LL|?} }Lih?4i?| 4@) Mi tMiU| |L @ _i}hii Lu _tUhi|L? ? M_}i| TL*U) |@| _giht uhL4 |i _i}hii |@|
t LT|4@* @UULh_?} |L |i A5O W| t @tt4i_ |@| @ tTiUU _i}hii Lu _tUhi|L?
? M_}i| TL*U) |h@?t*@|it ?|L @ tTiUU UL?t|h@?| L? |i }Lih?4i?|<t MLhhL?}
@?_ *i?_?} U@T@M*|it Ai UL?t|h@?| U@? i|ih Mi t|hU|ih Lh tLu|ih |@? |i UL?t|h@?| |@| ULhhitTL?_t |L |i _i}hii Lu MLhhL?} @?_ *i?_?} |@| t LT|4@*
@UULh_?} |L |i A5O
Ai i4ThU@* hit*|t Lu @Tih WV ?_U@|i |@| uLh |i u** t@4T*i TihL_ Lu
bD2bbc ?i|ih |i A5O ?Lh |i BA5O U@? Mi hiiU|i_ OLiihc ? |i tMTihL_
b.fbSc |i A5O t hiiU|i_ *i |i BA5O t ?L| Vt@**)c |i BA5O ThL_it U*Lti |L @ TihuiU| 4L_i* |( |i Thi_U|i_ @?_ @U|@* M_}i| thT*t |4i tihit @hi
@*4Lt| _i?|U@* |hL}L| |i i?|hi t@4T*i TihL_ Ai i_i?Ui t}}it|t |@|
Mit_it |@ t4LL|?} Mi@Lhc |ihi @t Mii? 4Lhi _tUhi|L? ? 5i_t M_}i|
TL*U) hi*@|i |L @| t LT|4@* @UULh_?} |L |i A5O
+,6,+,,5
@hhLc +a Eb.b R? |i _i|ih4?@|L? Lu |i TM*U _iM| aLh?@* Lu L*|U@*
,UL?L4)c L* H. EDc U|LMihc TT bef.
i!@ih|c Bc OL_hU!c +a @?_ @ht@**c # Ebb. R? M@tit ? |it|t Lu |i i TiU|@|L?t )TL|itt Lu |i |ih4 t|hU|hi Lu ?|ihit| h@|it aLh?@* Lu 6
?@?U@* ,UL?L4Utc L* ee Ec a?ic TT fbeH
@4TMi**c av EbH. R#Lit t@?} @?|UT@|i _iU*??} *@MLh ?UL4iq ? @*|ih
?@|i |it| Lu |i Tih4@?i?| ?UL4i )TL|itt ,UL?L4i|hU@c L* DD ESc
Li4Mihc TT 2eb.
@4TMi**c avc 5**ih + EbH. RL?|i}h@|L? @?_ |it|t Lu Thiti?| @*i 4L_i*t
aLh?@* Lu L*|U@* ,UL?L4)c L* bD EDc U|LMihc TT fS2HH
,?}t|i_c A E2ff2 Ri@thit Lu | uLh h@|L?@* i TiU|@|L?t 4L_i*t aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4U 5hi)tc L* S Ec a*)c TT fDD
6*@?c EbH RAi @_t|4i?| Lu UL?t4T|L? |L U@?}?} i TiU|@|L?t @ML|
u|hi ?UL4i aLh?@* Lu L*|U@* ,UL?L4)c L* Hb EDc U|LMihc TT b.e
ffb
S
6*@?c Ebb RAi i Uitt t4LL|?itt Lu UL?t4T|L?G W_i?|U@|L? @?_ ?|ih
Thi|@|L? +ii Lu ,UL?L4U 5|_itc L* Sf Ec a*)c TT SDSS
6hi_4@?c EbD. |iLh) Lu |i UL?t4T|L? u?U|L? h?Ui|L?c aG h?Ui
|L? N?iht|) hitt
O@**c +, Eb.H R5|LU@t|U 4T*U@|L?t Lu |i *ui U)U*iTih4@?i?| ?UL4i )
TL|ittG AiLh) @?_ i_i?Ui aLh?@* Lu L*|U@* ,UL?L4)c L* HS ESc
#iUi4Mihc TT b.H.
BLtc + EbbD RW?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) @4L?}t| |i 4@Lh ?_t|h
@*ti_ UL?|hitG ALL *||*i Lh |LL 4Uq ,UL?L4U aLh?@*c L* fD Ee2Hc a@?@h)c TT f.2H
BLtc +c t|h)c a# EbbD RAi Uhhi?| @UUL?| ? _ii*LT?} UL?|hitG TihtTiU|i uhL4 |i UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @TThL@U `Lh*_ @?! ,UL
?L4U +iic L* b E2c @)c TT fD
k*@?c w EbbH R54@** t@4T*i UL?_i?Ui ?|ih@*t uLh 4T*ti hitTL?ti u?U|L?t
Ai +ii Lu ,UL?L4Ut @?_ 5|@|t|Utc L* Hf E2c @)c TT 2Hf
Mt|ui*_c c +L}Lgc k EbbD RAi ?|ih|i4TLh@* @TThL@U |L |i Uhhi?| @U
UL?|c ? EB BhLtt4@? @?_ k +L}Lg i_tc O@?_MLL! Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* iUL
?L4Utc L* 4t|ih_@4G Lh|OL**@?_
Mt|ui*_ c +L}Lgc k EbbS 6L?_@|L?t Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* 4@UhLiUL?L4Ut @4
Mh_}ic G WA hitt
||Lc B Ebb2 RAit|?} @ Thiti?| @*i 4L_i* Lu |i Uhhi?| @UUL?|G ,_i?Ui uhL4 N5 @?_ @?@_@? |4i tihit aLh?@* Lu W?|ih?@|L?@* L?i) @?_ 6
?@?Uic L* EDc U|LMihc TT eef
+?!*ic #, EbH. RViU|Lh @|Lhi}hittL?t @?_ hi@*|) aLh?@* Lu t?itt @?_
,UL?L4U 5|@|t|Utc L* D Eec U|LMihc TT e.e2
5igh?c 5c `LLc `A Ebbf Rhiti?| @*i |it|t Lu @? ?|ih|i4TLh@* 4L_i*
Lu |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| aLh?@* Lu W?|ih?@|L?@* ,UL?L4Utc L* 2b Eec
Li4Mihc TT 2.D
.
@Tih W
6hL4 U*Lti_ |L LTi? _LLh TL*U)G ? i4ThU@*
t|_) Lu ?@<t ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)c
bDHbH
aL@? _*ih
Li4Mih 2ff2
Mt|h@U|
At T@Tih i4T*L)t |i ?|ih|i4TLh@* UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @TThL@U |L |i Uh
hi?| @UUL?| |L |it| |i _i}hii Lu ?@<t ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) _h?} |i TihL_ bDHbH W? UL?|h@t| |L @** ThiLt !?L? UL?|h) t|_it t?} |t uh@4i
Lh!c |i )TL|itt |@| U@T|@* @t Mii? @| *i@t| 4LM*i i?L} |L @**L uLh LT|4@*
UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} Mi@Lh t hiiU|i_ W? |t 4L_i*c | @TTi@ht |@| @ UL?
|h) i Tihi?Uit tMLT|4@**) *L U@T|@* 4LM*|) L?*) i? tiihi hit|hU|L?t @hi T*@Ui_ L? |i U@T|@* @UUL?|c @t ? |i U@ti Lu ?@ @h|@* M@hhiht |L ?|ih?@
|L?@* U@T|@* 4Li4i?|t _L ?L| ?iUitt@h*) 4T*) ?@M*|) |L t4LL| UL?t4T|L?
LT|4@**)
ki)Lh_tG @T|@* 4LM*|)( ?@( L?t4T|L? t4LL|?}( hhi?| @UUL?|
a,w U*@ttU@|L?G 62( 6e( 6e.
L dp judwhixo wr Duqh Eljvwhq/ Fkulvwrskhu Dgdp/ Glfn Gxuhydoo/ Plfkdho Ehujpdq/ Fkulvwhu Omxqjzdoo/ Err Vmrr/ dqg vhplqdu sduwlflsdqwv dw Jrwheruj Xqlyhuvlw| iru xvhixo frpphqwv rq wklv sdshu1 Ilqdqfldo vxssruw iurp wkh Ulfkdug F1 Pdopvwhq Irxqgdwlrq lv judwhixoo| dfnqrzohgjhg1
b
W?|hL_U|L?
?@<t iUL?L4U hiuLh4t @?_ |ih 4T*U@|L?t uLh |i UL?|h)<t }hL| @i Mii?
hi4@h!@M*i 5?Ui |i ?|hL_U|L? Lu |i hiuLh4t ? b.Hc |i UL?|h) @t }hL?
@| @? @??@* @ih@}i h@|i Lu Lih b TihUi?|c @?_ hi@* B Tih U@T|@ @t @*4Lt|
^?|T*i_ ?i Lu |i hiuLh4t |@| @t ?_LM|i_*) UL?|hM|i_ t}?U@?|*) |L
|i u@t| }hL| t |i LTi? _LLh TL*U)c ?|@|i_ ? b.b W? t@hT UL?|h@t| |L |i ThihiuLh4 TL*U) @4i_ @| ti*utUi?U)c |i LTi? _LLh TL*U) @t *i_ |L ?Uhi@ti_
?|ih?@|L?@* *?!@}it ? @hLt uLh4t ki) i*i4i?|t Lu |i TL*U) @i ?U*_i_
}iL}h@TU@* |@h}i|?} @?_ _iUi?|h@*3@|L? Lu |i 4@?@}i4i?| t)t|i4c @_LT|L? Lu
@ t)t|i4 Lu 4TLh| @?_ i TLh| *Ui?t?} @?_ Lu |@hgt @?_ |@ itc @?_ *Mih@*3@|L?
Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i hi}4i
t @ hit*|c |i UL?|h)<t uLhi}? |h@_i t)t|i4 @t ?
_ih}L?i @ UL4T*i|i hiLhi?|@|L?c |h@?tuLh4?} ?@ ?|L @ UL?|h) ihi uLhi}?
|h@_i tihit @t |i 4@? i?}?i Lu }hL| | |i i?_ Lu bbSc ?@ @??L?Ui_ |L
|i W6 |@| | 4i| |i hi^hi4i?|t uLh Uhhi?| @UUL?| UL?ih|M*|) UULh_?}
|L @? i| @* Ebbbc |i ThLUitt Lu 4@h!i|3@|L? Lu ?@<t uLhi}? |h@_i t)t|i4
@t *@h}i*) UL4T*i|i M) bb. W? bbHc ?@<t i TLh|t @4L?|i_ |L N5mHe M**L?c T*@U?} |i UL?|h) @4L?} |i Lh*_<t |LT |i? i TLh|iht Oi?Uic uhL4 @? ?t}?
U@?| ThihiuLh4 TLt|L?c ?@ t |L_@) L?i Lu |i 4@Lh ?|ih?@|L?@* |h@_iht @?_
@*tL @ t}?U@?| T@h|UT@?| ? Lh*_ U@T|@* 4@h!i|t
Ai ThTLti Lu |t T@Tih t |L |it| @?_ 4i@thi |i _i}hii Lu ?@<t ?|ih
?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) _h?} |i TihL_ bDHbH M) 4i@?t Lu |i ?|ih|i4TLh@*
UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @TThL@U |L |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| UULh_?} |L |t @T
ThL@Uc i? @}i?|t @hi t4LL|?} UL?t4T|L? LT|4@**)c |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| t i^@* |L |i Thiti?| _tUL?|i_ @*i Lu i TiU|i_ _iU*?it ? ?@|L?@* U@t Lc
ihi ?@|L?@* U@t L t @? ?UL4i 4i@thi _i?i_ @t L|T| *itt }Lih?4i?|
UL?t4T|L? *itt ?it|4i?| t tL? M) @4TMi** EbH.c M) 4i@?t Lu |i |iL
Iru ghwdlov ri wkh uhirup ri wkh iruhljq wudgh v|vwhp/ vhh iru lqvwdqfh Odug| +4<<3, dqg Fkdq hw do1 +4<<<,1
f
hi|U@* 4L_i* @?_ @ iU|Lh @|Lhi}hittL? uLh |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| @?_ ?@|L?@* U@t
Lc L?i U@? UL?t|hU| @? LT|4@* EThi_U|i_ |4i tihit Lu |i Uhhi?| @UUL?|
Ai?c uL**L?} BLt EbbD @?_ BLt @?_ t|h) EbbDc U@T|@* 4LM*|) U@? Mi
@ttitti_ M) t@**) UL4T@h?} |i _ihi_ LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| | |i @U|@*
Uhhi?| @UUL?| ? @ |4i tihit T*L| Wu |i 4L_i* t |hic ic u |i @tt4T|L?t Lu UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @?_ TihuiU| ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) L*_c |i |L tihit tL*_ Mi _i?|U@*
Lhi uLh4@**)c |i i |i?| |L U |i _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|) _i@|it uhL4 |i _i}hii |@| t TihuiU| @UULh_?} |L |i UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?}
@TThL@Uc t 4i@thi_ M) t|_)?} |i @h@?Ui Lh t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L Lu |i LT|4@* @?_ @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| tihit Bi? |i ?** )TL|itt |@| |i 4L_i*
t |hic |t h@|L t i^@* |L ?|) Wu |i h@|L t @MLi ?|)c |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L?
Lu |i @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| t *Lih |@? |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? Lu |i LT|4@*
Uhhi?| @UUL?| At t}}it|t tMLT|4@**) *L U@T|@* 4LM*|) @?_ |i Thiti?Ui Lu igiU|i M@hhiht |L ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4Li4i?|t ? |i L|ih @?_c @ }ih t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? Lu |i @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| hi*@|i |L |i LT|4@* Uhhi?|
@UUL?|c ic @ h@|L Mi*L ?|)c ?_U@|it @ }ih _i}hii Lu U@T|@* 4LM*|) |@?
|i _i}hii |@| t TihuiU| @UULh_?} |L |i UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @TThL@U 5U
@? L|UL4i 4@) t}}it| |@| tTiU*@|L? t |i _h?} uLhUi Mi?_ U@T|@* Lt
5|_it t?} |i UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @TThL@U |L |it| |i _i}hii Lu U@T|@*
4LM*|) @i Mii? _L?i uLh UL?|hit | ih) _gihi?| _i}hiit Lu @UUitt |L Lh*_
U@T|@* 4@h!i|t BLt EbbD UL?U*_it |@| uLh a@T@?c Bih4@?)c |i N?|i_ k?}
_L4c @?_ @?@_@c U@T|@* 4LM*|) t?Ui `Lh*_ `@h WW @t Mii? i Uittic Tih@Tt _i |L |i Thiti?Ui Lu tTiU*@|i uLhUit
BLt @?_ t|h) EbbD ?_ |@| uLh
|i 4@Lh|) Lu |i eD _ii*LT?} UL?|hit ? |ih TLt|@h t@4T*ic LT|4@* @?_
@U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| |4i tihit 4Li U*Lti*) |L}i|ihc t}}it|?} |@| U@T|@*
t 4LM*i i?L} |L @**L uLh LT|4@* UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} Mi@Lhc @?_ |@|
Wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv lv wkh rqo| frxqwu| lq Jkrvk*v vwxg| zkhuh wkh udwlr ri yduldqfhv ri wkh rswlpdo dqg dfwxdo fxuuhqw dffrxqw lv qrw vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp xqlw|1
igiU|i M@hhiht |L 4LM*|) @hi hi*@|i*) *L 54*@h hit*|t uLh L|ih UL?|hit
@hi LM|@?i_ M) @t? @?_ U#ih4L|| EbbHc }i?Lh i| @* Ebbbc @!h)_@!t Ebbb @?_ Otti? @?_ _i i**L ah Ebbb
u |i t|_it _L?i tL u@hc ULih
?} 4Lhi |@? Df UL?|hitc |i U@T|@* 4LM*|) ?** )TL|itt Lu @ @h@?Ui ELh t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|L i^@* |L ?|) @t ?iih Mii? hiiU|i_ ? @ @) |@| t}
}it|t |@| 4LM*|) @t Mii? tMLT|4@**) *L A@| tc uLh @** UL?|hitc |i hit*|t
@i ?_U@|i_ @? LT|4@*@U|@* h@|L i^@* |L Lh t}?U@?|*) t4@**ih |@? ?|)c
Uc uhL4 |i UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} TihtTiU|ic U@? Mi ?|ihThi|i_ @t TihuiU|
Lh i Uitti ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)c hitTiU|i*)
W? @__|L? |L |i i4ThU@* i_i?Ui Lu i Uitti U@T|@* 4LM*|)c 4@?) UL?
|hit @i hiUi?|*) i Tihi?Ui_ tiihi ?@?U@* Uhtit |@| @i Mii? |L tL4i i |i?|
Lhti?i_ M) |i hit*|?} 4@tti U@T|@* Lt Atc UL?t_ih?} ML| |i hit*|t Lu ThiLt i4ThU@* hiti@hU @?_ |i hiUi?| ?@?U@* Uhtitc |i ^it|L? i|ih UL4T*i|i*) _ihi}*@|i_ U@T|@* 4@h!i|t @hi LT|4@* @| @** |4it t 4L|@|i_ u ULhtic @t tL? Mi*Lc |i ?|ih|i4TLh@* UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @TThL@U t M@ti_
L? 4@?) t4T*u)?} @tt4T|L?tc U 4@) ?L| Mi @*_ 6Lh @ 4L_i* |L ThL_Ui t@|tu@U|Lh) hit*|tc | tL*_ Mi @M*i |L Thi_U| tMLT|4@**) *L U@T|@* 4LM*|)
i? |i |hi 4LM*|) t *L 5?Ui |i 4L_i* @t Mii? @TT*i_ |L UL?|hit |
ih) hit|hU|i_ 4@h!i|t @t i** @t |L UL?|hit | @ *Lih _i}hii Lu hi}*@|L?c M|
? }i?ih@* @t ?_U@|i_ |@| U@T|@* @t Mii? @| *i@t| 4LM*i i?L} |L @**L uLh LT|4@* UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?}c | tii4t TLttM*i |@| |i 4L_i* t)t|i4@|U@**) Liht|@|it |i _i}hii Lu U@T|@* 4LM*|)
6hL4 |t TihtTiU|ic | t itTiU@**)
?|ihit|?} |L @TT*) |i 4L_i* |L ?@c t?Ui |i UL?|h) @t Tih@Tt |i 4Lt|
Vhh dovr Vkhulq dqg Zrr +4<<3, dqg Rwwr +4<<5,1 Iru d jhqhudo vxuyh| ri wkh wkhru| dqg hpslulfdo uhvxowv lq wklv duhd/ wkh uhdghu vkrxog frqvxow Revwihog dqg Urjr +4<<8/ 4<<9,1
Lq vrph frxqwulhv xqghu vwxg|/ wkh udwlr kdg dq hvwlpdwhg ydoxh juhdwhu wkdq xqlw|/ zklfk vxjjhvwv uhodwlyho| orz fdslwdo prelolw|1 Lq wkrvh fdvhv/ krzhyhu/ wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv ri d udwlr htxdo wr xqlw| frxog qrw eh uhmhfwhg1
Lw vkrxog eh qrwhg wkdw roghu dssurdfkhv/ wkh prvw idprxv ehlqj Ihogvwhlq dqg Krulrnd*v +4<;3,/
vxjjhvw lqvwhdg wkdw lqwhuqdwlrqdo fdslwdo prelolw| dprqjvw wkh pdmru lqgxvwuldol}hg qdwlrqv pd|
eh vhyhuho| olplwhg1 Iru d glvfxvvlrq dqg fulwlflvp ri wkh Ihogvwhlq0Krulrnd +4<;3, dssurdfk dqg rwkhu phwkrgv/ vhh iru lqvwdqfh Jkrvk +4<<8, dqg Jkrvk dqg Rvwu| +4<<8,1
2
U*Lti_ iUL?L4) ? |i Lh*_ _h?} |i ht| @*u Lu |i t@4T*i TihL_ EbDH.Hc
@?_ |i? ?_ihi?| }h@_@* *Mih@*3@|L? ? |i tiUL?_ @*u Eb.bbH Wu |i t@4i UL?U*tL? t hi@Ui_ uLh ?@ @t uLh |i L|ih UL?|hitc | t}}it|t |@| |i UL?
t4T|L? t4LL|?} @TThL@U ? |t Uhhi?| uLh4 t @? ?@_i^@|i |LL* uLh 4i@th?}
@ UL?|h)<t _i}hii Lu ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)
At T@Tih t Lh}@?3i_ @t uL**Lt Ai ?i | tiU|L? L|*?it |i |iLh) uLh _i
h?} @?_ it|4@|?} |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| 5iU|L? UL?|@?t |i i4ThU@*
it|4@|L? @?_ hit*|t Lu |it|t Lu |i 4L_i* 5iU|L? e _h@t UL?U*tL?t
2 AiLh)
Ai Uhhi?| @UUL?| t _i?i_ @t |i U@?}i ? @ UL?|h)<t ?i| uLhi}? @tti|t W?
|i M@*@?Ui Lu T@)4i?|t @UUL?|tc |t t _i?|U@**) i^@* |L U@T|@* Lt ?U*_?}
U@?}it ? hitihit N?_ih |i @tt4T|L?t Lu UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @?_ TihuiU|
?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)c |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| |i? tihit @t @ Mgih |L t4LL|
UL?t4T|L? ? |i u@Ui Lu i TiU|i_ U@?}it ? ?@|L?@* U@t L
W? _ih?} |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| tihit ? *?i | |iti @tt4T|L?tc |i uh@4iLh! Lu 5@Ut EbH2 t uL**Li_ L?t_ih @? LTi? iUL?L4) |@| ThL_Uit
@ t?}*i |h@_@M*i }LL_ Ai iUL?L4) t t4@** ? |i ti?ti |@| | u@Uit @ }i?
hi@* Lh*_ ?|ihit| h@|i Lh4@*3?} TLT*@|L? |L c |i t?}*i ??|i*)*i_
UL?t4ih<t Thiuihi?Uit @hi }i? M)
X
' H
+ [
xEF
,
f ? ? c E
ihi H
t |i UL?_|L?@* i TiU|@|L?t LTih@|Lh( t |i tMiU|i _tUL?| u@U|Lh(
xE= t |i ?t|@?|@?iLt |*|) u?U|L?( @?_ F
_i?L|it UL?t4T|L? Lu |i t?}*i }LL_ tt4?} @ UL?t|@?| hi@* ?|ihit| h@|ic uc |i M_}i| UL?t|h@?| t }i? M)
E
' E n uE
n T
F
J
L
> E2
Uc TL? hi@hh@?}i4i?|c }it
FD
' E
E
' uE
n T
F
J
L
> E
ihi FD
t |i Uhhi?| @UUL?|( E
t ?i| uLhi}? @tti|t @| |i i?_ Lu TihL_
w( uE
t ?|ihit| i@h?i_ L? ThiLt*) @U^hi_ @tti|t( T
t |i *ii* Lu L|T|(
J
t |i *ii* Lu }Lih?4i?| UL?t4T|L?( @?_ L
t |i *ii* Lu ?it|4i?|
Ai ThLM*i4c |i?c t |L 4@ 43i E tMiU| |L E2c | @ |h@?tiht@*|) UL?_|L?
4TLti_ AL LM|@? @ t4T*i @?_ i4ThU@**) |h@U|@M*i U*Lti_ uLh4 tL*|L? uLh UL?t4T|L?c @ ^@_h@|U uLh4 uLh |i |*|) u?U|L? t TLt|i_c @?_ | t @tt4i_
|@| E n u ' Ai tL*|L? U@? Mi h||i? @t
F
' uE
n u n u
[
n u
H
]
> Ee
ihi ]
t ?@|L?@* U@t Lc _i?i_ @t
]
' T
J
L
= ED
Ai t4@** UL?|h) @tt4T|L? 4T*it |@| L|T| @?_ ?it|4i?| 4@) Mi |hi@|i_
@t i L}i?Lt |L |i UL?t4T|L? _iUtL? `| @ }i? ?|ihit| h@|ic |i @}i?| ?
_ih|@!it ?it|4i?| ?_iTi?_i?|*) Lu _L4it|U UL?t4T|L?Thiuihi?Uit T |L |i TL?| ihi |i 4@h}?@* ThL_U| Lu U@T|@* i^@*t |i Lh*_ ?|ihit| h@|i Oi?Uic
?it|4i?| @?_ L|T| @hi ULti? ?_iTi?_i?|*) Lu UL?t4T|L? BLih?4i?| UL?
t4T|L? t @tt4i_ |L Mi i L}i?Lt @t i**
,^@|L? Ee t @? LTi? iUL?L4) ihtL? Lu |i Tih4@?i?| ?UL4i )TL|itt
W| t|@|it |@| UL?t4T|L? t i^@* |L Tih4@?i?| ?@|L?@* U@t Lc Lh @??|)
@*i Lu i@*|c @?_ @t tUc | U@T|hit |i ?L|L? Lu UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} t
@4TMi** EbH. TL?|t L|c @?L|ih @) |L tii |t t |L uLh4*@|i |i )TL|itt
@t @ t|@|i4i?| @ML| t@?}c ic @ML| |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| 5Mt|||i Ee ?|L E
@?_ hi@hh@?}i |i |ih4t tU |@|
Wkh prgho dvvxphv wkdw d ulvnohvv erqg lv wkh rqo| lqwhuqdwlrqdoo| wudghg dvvhw1
e
FD
'
[
n u
H
{]
> ES
ihi {]
' ]
]
Atc @UULh_?} |L |i UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} @TThL@Uc
|i Uhhi?| @UUL?| t i^@* |L |i Thiti?| _tUL?|i_ @*i Lu i TiU|i_ _iU*?it ?
?@|L?@* U@t L MLt*)c i? u|hi TLt|i U@?}it ? ?@|L?@* U@t L
@hi i TiU|i_c |L_@)<t Uhhi?| @UUL?| }Lit ?|L _iU|c t?Ui @}i?|t MLhhL ? Lh_ih
|L t4LL| UL?t4T|L? Lih |4i L?ihti*)c u @}i?|t i TiU| u|hi _iU*?it ?
?@|L?@* U@t Lc |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| }Lit ?|L thT*t At t @*tL UL?t4T|L?
t4LL|?} Mi@Lhc Lh i^@*i?|*)c @t @4TMi** EbH. T|t |c TiLT*i t@i RuLh @ h@?) _@)
@4TMi** EbH. @?_ @4TMi** @?_ 5**ih EbH. _ii*LT @? i4ThU@* 4i|L_
|L it|4@|i H
{]
@?_ |it| |i @*_|) Lu ESc @t uL**Lt L|i ht| |@| |i Uhhi?|
@UUL?| U@? Mi h||i? @t
FD
' uE
n ]
F
' k
l 5 99 97
uE
]
F
6 :: :8 ' k
l
[
'
[
= E.
i |c @tt4i |@| ]
t t|@|L?@h) ? ht| _gihi?Uit Ai? | uL**Lt uhL4 ES |@|
FD
t t|@|L?@h) ? *ii*tc t?Ui | t @ *?i@h UL4M?@|L? Lu i TiU|i_ U@?}it ?
]
UULh_?} |L E.c }i? |@| uE
@?_ F
@hi t|@|L?@h) ? ht| _gihi?Uitc |i UL4TL?i?|t Lu |i iU|Lh [
@hi UL?|i}h@|i_c @?_ t |i UL?|i}h@|?} iU|Lh )
|i Bh@?}ih hiThiti?|@|L? |iLhi4 Etii ,?}*i @?_ Bh@?}ihc bH.c | uL**Lt |@|
@? ihhLh ULhhiU|L? hiThiti?|@|L? i t|tG
{[
' p n OEEO{[
n
[
n %
> EH
ihi p t @ iU|Lh Lu ?|ihUiT| |ih4t( EEO t @ 4@|h TL*)?L4@* ? |i *@}
LTih@|Lh( t @ tTii_ Lu @_t|4i?|t iU|Lh( @?_ %
t @ iU|Lh Lu |i ?Lti
D
_t|hM@?Uit Nt?} EH uLh uLhiU@t|?} ThTLtit ?L*it |i U4MihtL4i hiUhti
T_@|?} Lu [
6Lh|?@|i*)c |t ThLM*i4 U@? Mi UhU4i?|i_ M) |h@?tuLh4?}
EH ?|L |i iU|Lh @|Lhi}hittL? EV+
5 99 97
{F
{]
FD
6
:: :8 ' f n ODEO
5 99 97
{F
{]
FD
6
:: :8 n J%
> Eb
ihi
J ' 5 99 97
f f f f
6
:: :8> Ef
@?_
f ' Jp= E
L4t Ebbe ThL_it @ ThLLu Lu |t |h@?tuLh4@|L? Nt?} O@**<t Eb.H i**!?L?
hit*| |@| UL?t4T|L? ? |t ti||?} uL**Lt @ 4@h|?}@*ic | uL**Lt |@| |i ht|
i^@|L? ? Eb t hi_?_@?| Atc Eb hi_Uit |L @ V+ ? E{]
> FD
c @?_ |t
t |i i4ThU@* 4L_i* uhL4 U |i uLhiU@t| Lu U@?}it ? ?@|L?@* U@t Lc H
{]
> t LM|@?i_ Bi? |@| |i _@|@ t @??@* @?_ |@| |i t@4T*i t hi*@|i*) t4@**c |t uLhiU@t| t @tt4i_ |L Mi M@ti_ L? |i ht|Lh_ih V+
5 7 {]
FD
6 8 '
5
7 [
[
[
[
6 8
5 7 {]
FD
6 8 n
5 7 x
x
6
8 > E2
ihi |i 4i@?t Lu {]
@?_ FD
@i Mii? hi4Li_
Ai 4@? ?|ihit| ? E2 UL?Uih?t |i hi}hittL? ? U {]
t |i _iTi?_i?|
@h@M*i W| t |i Thiti?| _tUL?|i_ @*i Lu @** _@|i w uLhiU@t|t Lu |t @h@M*ic UL?_|L?@* L? |i @}i?|<t u** ?uLh4@|L? ti|c |@| ** _i|ih4?i |i LT|4@* _@|i w Uhhi?| @UUL?| A@| tc @UULh_?} |L ESc u|hi i TiU|i_ U@?}it ? ?@|L?@*
S
U@t L @hi hiiU|i_ ? |L_@)<t Uhhi?| @UUL?| Ai?c ?||i*)c ?L| L?*) **
{]
Mi 4TLh|@?| ? _i|ih4??} {]
c M| @*tL FD
tL*_ i*T Thi_U| {]
c t?Ui | 4@) UL?|@? @__|L?@* ?uLh4@|L? Oi?Uic @? 4T*U@|L? Lu |i 4L_i* t
|@| |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| tL*_ Bh@?}ih U@ti U@?}it ? ?@|L?@* U@t L
Ai uLhiU@t| Lu @ L?i TihL_ U@?}i ? ?@|L?@* U@t L t |i?
H
{]
' k
f l 5
7 [
[
[
[
6 8
5
7 {]
FD
6 8 ' k
f l [
5 7 {]
FD
6
8 > E
ihi [ t |i 22 4@|h Lu ULiUi?|tc [
El> m ' > 2 5Mt|||?} E ?|L ES @?_ t4T*u)?}c }it
FD g
' k
f l
n u[
L n u
[
5 7 {]
FD
6 8 ' k x
x
l 5
7 {]
FD
6 8 ' x
5 7 {]
FD
6
8 > Ee
ihi g FD
t |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?|c @?_ i@U i*i4i?| ? x t @ ?L?*?i@h u?U|L? Lu |i ?_ih*)?} V+ T@h@4i|iht t ?L|i_c |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?|
tihitc g FD
c U@? Mi UL4T@hi_ |L |i @U|@* tihitc FD
Wu |i 4L_i* t |hic |i |L tihit tL*_ Mi _i?|U@* A@| tc u |i 4L_i* t |hic | uL**Lt |@|
g FD
' k
f l 5 7 {]
FD
6
8 ' FD
= ED
Atc |i T@h@4i|ih hit|hU|L?t U@? Mi h||i?
k f l ' k
f l
n u[
L n u[
> ES
Lhc i^@*i?|*)c M) TLt|4*|T*)?} M)
L
[ G
.
k f l
L n u[
' k
f l
n u[
k +,
[
E[
E n u l
' k
[
[
l
= E.
W? t44@h)c |i 4L_i* _ihi_ ? |t tiU|L? ti|t |i uL**L?} @}i?_@ uLh |i i4ThU@* it|4@|L? 6ht|c |L ihu) |@| ?@|L?@* U@t L t t|@|L?@h) ? ht|
_gihi?Uit @?_ |@| |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| |4i tihit t t|@|L?@h)c ?| hLL| @?_
UL?|i}h@|L? @?@*)tit @hi TihuLh4i_ i |c |i V+ t it|4@|i_c @?_ Bh@?}ih U@t@*|) Lu |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| t |it|i_ uLh ) 4i@?t Lu |i it|4@|i_ V+
T@h@4i|ihtc |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| tihit @UULh_?} |L Ee t U@*U*@|i_ @?_
t@**) UL4T@hi_ |L |i @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| tihit Ai?c |i _i}hii Lu U@T|@*
4LM*|) t @ttitti_ uLh4@**) M) |it|?} |i ?** )TL|itt |@| |i t|@?_@h_ _i@
|L? h@|L Lu |i LT|4@* @?_ @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| tihit t i^@* |L ?|) 6?@**)c
|i @*_|) Lu |i Lih@** 4L_i* t i@*@|i_ M) |it|?} |i *?i@h hit|hU|L?t ?
E.
,4ThU@* it|4@|L? @?_ hit*|t
??@* ?@|L?@* @UUL?| _@|@ uhL4 ?@<t @|L?@* hi@ Lu 5|@|t|Ut @hi ti_c
@?_ @** @h@M*it @hi i Thitti_ ? b.H )@? Tih U@T|@ 6h|ih _i|@*t UL?Uih??}
|i _@|@ @hi ThL_i_ ? |i TTi?_ Ai u** it|4@|L? TihL_ h?t uhL4 bDH
|L bbH Ai TihL_ Lu *Mih@*3@|L? Eb.bbH t Lu ULhti Lu tTiU@* ?|ihit|c @?_ t
|ihiuLhi t|_i_ tiT@h@|i*)c M| |L Mi UL4T*i|i @?_ |L Mi @M*i |L UL4T@hi hit*|tc
|i 4L_i* t @*tL it|4@|i_ uLh |i ThihiuLh4 TihL_ EbDH.H
H
A@M*i N?| hLL| |it|t
bDHbH bDH.H b.bbH
V@h@M*i #6 w #6 w #6 w
F
=be =fe =Db =e =2 =2e
]
.=S. f=Sf =.. = 2=b f=fH
Y
.=f f=eD =.. = b=f f=fH
FD
=2D
=2 e=fH
f=HD 2=2e
f=.2
{F
=.e f=2. S=ef
2=2S =Sb f=HH
{]
=.b f=Sf S=H
2=fS = f=e
{Y
e=DH
2=fD S=H
2=fS =H f=2H
Qrwhv= OP lv wkh Odjudqjh pxowlsolhu whvw iru uhvlgxdo fruuhodwlrq iurp odjv 4 wr 51 _
% lqglfdwhv uhmhfwlrq dw wkh 4 shufhqw ohyho ri vljqlfdqfh1 _
% lqglfdwhv uhmhfwlrq dw wkh 8 shufhqw ohyho ri vljqlfdqfh1
Ai ht| t|iT ? |i i4ThU@* @?@*)tt t |L ihu) |@| @** ?L*i_ @h@M*it @i
|i hi^hi_ Lh_ih Lu ?|i}h@|L? Ai @TThL@U t |L h|i |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| @t
FD
' Y
F
' k
l k
Y
F
l
> EH
ihi Y
t |L|@* U@t Lc _i?i_ @t JQS
J
L
!UULh_?}*)c | t ?iUitt@h)
|L ihu) |@| Y
@?_ F
@hi ML| ?__@**) WE @?_ UL?|i}h@|i_ tU |@| FD
t WEf W? @__|L?c |i 4L_i* @*tL @tt4it |@| ]
t WE AL ihu) |i Lh_ih Lu
?|i}h@|L? Lu |i tihitc @}4i?|i_ #U!i)6**ih E#6 |it|t @hi TihuLh4i_ EuLh _i|@*tc tii #U!i) @?_ 6**ihc bH 6ht|c 4L_i*t | e *@}t Lu |i ht| _gihi?Ui Lu |i _iTi?_i?| @h@M*i @hi it|4@|i_ Ai?c u TLttM*ic *@}t @hi hi_Ui_ @UULh_?}
|L 4L_i* hi_U|L? Uh|ih@c U @hi 4@?*) 6|it|t uLh *@} hi_U|L? @?_ w@}h@?}i
*|T*ih |it|t uLh hit_@* @|LULhhi*@|L? A@M*i _tT*@)t |i |it| hit*|t 6Lh F
c ]
c @?_ Y
c |i ?** )TL|itt Lu @ ?| hLL| U@??L| Mi hiiU|i_ ) UL?|h@t|c uLh FD
c |i ?** t hiiU|i_c U t}}it|t |@| Y
@?_ F
@hi UL?|i}h@|i_ Ai #6
|it| uLh @ ?| hLL| ? |i ht| _gihi?Ui Lu F
c ]
c @?_ Y
t @*tL TihuLh4i_ L |i
"
Glhuhqwo| sxw/ Y
#lv htxdo wr wkh vxp ri qdwlrqdo fdvk rz/ ]
#/ dqg lqwhuhvw hduqhg rq suhylrxvo|
dftxluhg iruhljq dvvhwv/ uE
#1
b
?** t hiiU|i_c i UiT| uLh {]
? |i TihL_ b.bbH OLiihc |i ?** U@? t@ui*) Mi hiiU|i_ @| f TihUi?|c @?_ }i? |i tLh| t@4T*i @?_ |@| | t i**!?L? |@|
|i TLih Lu |i #6 |it| t *Lc | tii4t hi@tL?@M*i |L @tt4i |@| ]
t WE
Ai #U!i)6**ih |it| uLh FD
t tTT*i4i?|i_ M) @ aL@?ti? EbHH UL?|i
}h@|L? |it| Ai hit*| Lu |t |it| t ThL_i_ ? A@M*i 2 Ai ?** )TL|itt t
|@| |i UL?|i}h@|?} iU|Lh E> Mi*L?}t |L |i UL?|i}h@|?} tT@Uic tU |@|
E> EY
> F
' FD
t WEf t |i |@M*i tLtc | t ?L| TLttM*i |L hiiU| |i ?**
? @?) Lu |i |4i TihL_t W? t44@h)c |i hit*|t uhL4 |i ?| hLL| @?_ UL?|i
}h@|L? @?@*)tit ?_U@|i |@| F
> ]
> @?_ Y
@hi t|@|L?@h) ? |ih ht| _gihi?Uitc
*i FD
t t|@|L?@h) ? *ii*t
A@M*i 2
+it|hU|i_ UL?|i}h@|L? |it|t
bDHbH bDH.H b.bbH
"
2. 2f fDf
T@*i f2 fD feH
Qrwhv= "
lv wkh whvw vwdwlvwlf iru wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv wkdw wkh uhvwulfwhg frlqwhjudwlqj yhfwru +4> 4, ehorqjv wr wkh frlqwhjudwlqj vsdfh/ vxfk wkdw +4> 4,+Y
#> F
#,
$@ FD
#lv L+3,1
A@M*i tLt |i 4@? hit*|t Lu |i V+ @?@*)tt L|i |@| |i T@h@4i|ih it|4@|it uLh |i L*i TihL_ @?_ uLh |i TihL_ b.bbH @hi ih) t4*@h ) UL?|h@t|c |i it|4@|it uLh |i TihL_ bDH.H _gihc itTiU@**) uLh [
Ai hi@tL?
t |@|c @*|L} |i Uhhi?| @UUL?| 4Lit @?_ t _gihi?| uhL4 3ihL ? |i Thi
hiuLh4 TihL_c |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i 4Li4i?|t ? |i *Mih@*3@|L? TihL_ t 4U
*@h}ih Ai |@M*i @*tL tLt |i hit*|t Lu |i |it| Lu |i ?** )TL|itt |@|
FD
?L?Bh@?}ih U@tit {]
6Lh |i u** TihL_ @?_ uLh |i TihL_ b.bbHc | t TLttM*i |L hiiU| |i ?** @| |i .H TihUi?| *ii* Lu t}?U@?Ui | ht| t}|c |i ULhhitTL?_?} |it| hit*| uLh |i TihL_ bDH.H @TTi@ht t|hL?}ihc t?Ui | t TLttM*i
|L hiiU| |i ?** @| eD TihUi?| OLiihc |t hit*| t ?L| ? @UULh_@?Ui | |i 4L_i*c t?Ui @UULh_?} |L ESc FD
Thi_U|t u|hi _iU*?it ? {]
Ai t}? Lu
2f
e[
uLh |i TihL_ bDH.H t TLt|ic UL?|h@_U|?} |t Thi_U|L? ) UL?|h@t|c _h?} |i TihL_ b.bbHc |i 4T*U@|L? Lu |i UL?t4T|L? t4LL|?} 4L_i* t t@|ti_c t?Ui FD
?i}@|i*) Bh@?}ih U@tit {]
=
A@M*i
,t|4@|i_ V+ T@h@4i|iht
bDHbH bDH.H b.bbbH
e[
f=be f=D22 f=b.
Ef=fHb Ef=H Ef=fD
e[
f=H2e =b2 f=H
Ef=eSS E=.D Ef=e.
e[
f=S f=fDD f=
Ef=fHS Ef=fb Ef=2
e[
f=2e f=ebD f=.
Ef=22H Ef=2b Ef=22S
"
% &')(*+=2 D= =2
T@*i f=f.. f=f2e f=f..
Qrwhv= Wkh vwdqgdug huuruv +zlwklq sduhqwkhvhv, duh Zklwh +4<;3, khwhurvfhgdvwlflw| frqvlvwhqw1
"
,.-/0)123-lv wkh whvw vwdwlvwlf iru wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv wkdw FD
#4qrq0Judqjhu fdxvhv ]
#1
Ai V+ T@h@4i|iht @hi ti_ |L _ihi |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| |4i tihit
6L**L?} 5igh? @?_ `LL Ebbfc hit*|t @hi Thiti?|i_ uLh |L _gihi?| U@tit(
L?i M@ti_ L? @? ?|ihit| h@|i Lu e TihUi?| Tih )i@hc @?_ |i L|ih M@ti_ L? @ h@|i Lu e TihUi?|
5) t@**) UL4T@h?} |i LT|4@* @?_ @U|@* tihitc | t TLttM*i |L @ttitt |i 4L_i*<t TihuLh4@?Ui @?_ |i _i}hii Lu ?@<t ?|ih?@|L?@*
U@T|@* 4LM*|) 6}hi tLt |i @U|@* @?_ LT|4@* tihit uLh i@U Lu |i |L tMTihL_t t i TiU|i_c |i 4L_i* TihuLh4t 4tih@M*) _h?} |i TihL_ bDH
.Hc @?_ |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| _giht tMt|@?|@**) uhL4 |i @U|@* Uhhi?|
@UUL?| | |ihi t _h@4@|U 4ThLi4i?| uL**L?} |i *Mih@*3@|L? ? b.b
5?Ui |i?c |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| tii4t |L @i _L?i Thi||) i** ? U@T|h?}
|i tu|t Lu |i @U|@* tihit 5|** |L}c ML| Lu |i LT|4@* tihitc itTiU@**)
6
Vkhulq dqg Zrr*v xvh ri d 47 shufhqw udwh ri lqwhuhvw vwhpv iurp Ehuqdqnh*v +4<;8, vwxg| ri frqvxpswlrq0lqfrph uhodwlrqv1
2
|i L?i M@ti_ L? |i e TihUi?| ?|ihit| h@|ic @hi 4Lhi L*@|*i UL4T@hi_ |L |i
@U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| Atc |i t@* i_i?Ui t}}it|t |@|c @*|L} ?@
@t ?_ih}L?i 4U *Mih@*3@|L? t?Ui b.bc |ihi @hi t|** igiU|i M@hhiht |L |i UL?|h)<t ?|ih?@|L?@* U@T|@* 4LM*|)
1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980
0 100 200 300
400 Actual Optimal (r=0.14)
Optimal (r=0.04)
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
-100 0
100 Actual Optimal (r=0.14)
Optimal (r=0.04)
Ilj141 Rswlpdo dqg dfwxdo fxuuhqw dffrxqw vhulhv1 Qrwhv= Xsshu sdqho= 4<8;0:;> orzhu sdqho=
4<:<0<;1
Ai |it|t Lu |i 4L_i* UL?h4 |i t@* @?@*)tt A@M*i e hiTLh|t |i it|4@|i_
t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|Lt Ai |@M*i @*tL _tT*@)t |i it|4@|i_ ULhhi*@|L? Mi|ii?
|i LT|4@* @?_ @U|@* Uhhi?| tihit t @!h)_@!t Ebbb TL?|t L|c t?Ui |i LT|4@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| t M@ti_ L? @ uLhiU@t| @?_ t @ }*) ?L?*?i@h u?U|L? Lu
|i V+ T@h@4i|ihtc |ihi 4}| Mi t}?U@?| t4@** t@4T*i M@t ?ihi?| ? t|@|t
|Ut t|i44?} uhL4 | AihiuLhic |L hi_Ui |i TLttM*|) Lu ihhL?iLt UL?U*tL?tc MLL|t|h@TT?} t ti_ ? Lh_ih |L 4@!i ?uihi?Ui @ML| U@T|@* 4LM*|) uhL4 |i it|4@|i_ t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|Lt LL|t|h@TT?} t @*tL ti_ |L 4@!i ?uihi?Ui
22
@ML| |i ULhhi*@|L? ULiUi?|t
OLiihc *i @!h)_@!t Ebbb tit MLL|t|h@TT?} |L LM|@? t|@?_@h_ ih
hLhtc |i @TThL@U ? |t T@Tih t _gihi?| t TL?|i_ L| M) ,uhL? @?_ AMth@?
Ebbc t?} t|@?_@h_ ?Lh4@* |iLh) @tt4T|L?t |L 4@!i ?uihi?Ui M@ti_ L? |i MLL|t|h@T it|4@|i Lu t|@?_@h_ ihhLh 4@) *i@_ |L ihhL?iLt UL?U*tL?t i? |i t@4T*i t3i t t4@** W? |t U@tic | t Mi||ih |L ti |i TihUi?|*it Lu |i MLL|t|h@T
t|L}h@4 |L UL?t|hU| UL?_i?Ui *4|t 6h|ih4Lhic @t i4T@t3i_ M) i!@ih| i|
@* Ebb. @?_ k*@? EbbHc ? @ V+ uh@4iLh!c U@|L? | hitTiU| |L M@t ? |i Lh_?@h) *i@t|t^@hit it|4@|it @t |L Mi |@!i? MiuLhi U@*U*@|?} |iti TihUi?|*it
AL |@!i |t ?|L @UUL?|c k*@? EbbH _ii*LTt @ M@tULhhiU|?} RMLL|t|h@T@u|ih
MLL|t|h@T 4i|L_c U t ti_ ihi Ai 4i|L_ t M@tU@**) __i_ ?|L |L T@h|t 6ht|c M@ti_ L? fff @h|U@* tihit Lu {]
@?_ FD
> fff MLL|t|h@T hiT*
U@|L?t Lu i@U V+ T@h@4i|ih @hi LM|@?i_ ? Lh_ih |L it|4@|i @?_ ULhhiU| uLh M@t ? i@U Lu |i Lh}?@* T@h@4i|iht
7Ai?c M) ti Lu |iti M@tULhhiU|i_ V+
it|4@|itc @?L|ih 2cfff @h|U@* tihit Lu {]
@?_ FD
@hi ThL_Ui_ 6Lh i@U
tihit Lu {]
@?_ FD
c |i uLh V+ T@h@4i|iht @hi it|4@|i_ @?_c @}@?c M@t
ULhhiU|i_ i |c |i h@|L Lu t|@?_@h_ _i@|L?t @?_ ULhhi*@|L? Lu |i LT|4@*
@?_ @U|@* Uhhi?| @UUL?| tihit @hi U@*U*@|i_ +iTi@|?} |t ThLUi_hi )i*_t 2fff it|4@|i_ t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? h@|Lt @?_ ULhhi*@|L? ULiUi?|t 6?@**)c bD TihUi?| UL?_i?Ui ?|ih@*t @hi UL?t|hU|i_ uhL4 |i 2D| @?_ b.D| TihUi?|*i
?|ih@* i?_TL?|t Lu |i |L hit*|?} i4ThU@* _t|hM|L?t
8Aiti i?_TL?|t
@hi Th?|i_ |? Mh@U!i|t Mi?i@| |i ULhhitTL?_?} t|@|t|U ? A@M*i e
9