Alcadon Group
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Results Analysis Telecom Equipment Sweden 22 February 2022
Set on the billion mark
We argue Alcadon Group, a leading distributor of network equipment and fibre solutions in the premium segment of the market, is well-positioned to capitalise on the roll-out of 5G technology (edge computing, Industry 4.0).
Bolstered by announced orders, we estimate a sales CAGR of 27% (largely organic) in 2022-24. Adding cost leverage, we forecast an EPS CAGR of 47%.
We raise our DCF-based mid-point equity value from SEK 105 to SEK 115.
2022: We forecast 36% sales growth and 41% EBIT growth
According to CEO Sonny Mirborn, Alcadon’s project with Deutsche Glasfaser (worth EUR 20m p.a. over the coming three years, to start) has been delayed by re-imposed Covid-19-related restrictions in Germany. We reckon deliveries could start this summer and we have adjusted our financial forecasts accordingly. This implies that we estimate the group to hit the SEK 1bn sales mark this year, bolstered by organic growth of 28%; FX and the acquisition of 6X Belgium add the remaining points to our total 36% sales growth forecast in 2022. We estimate pricing to mitigate cost inflation in sourcing ahead. Adding cost leverage, we forecast EBIT growth of 41% to SEK 98m (9.7% of sales).
Reinstating dividends, M&A capacity likely to be used this year too
In connection with Q4 results that were rather close to our forecasts, the Board of Directors proposes a reinstated DPS of SEK 0.50. We argue Alcadon has an acquisition capacity of SEK 750m. Capping net debt at 3.5x our scenario EBITDA and assuming EV/EBIT paid of 6x, this adds another SEK 60 per share in Alcadon.
We raise our DCF-based mid-point equity value from SEK 105 to SEK 115 Based on revised earnings forecasts, a WACC of 7.2% and steady-state EBIT of 11% of sales, we arrive at a mid-point equity value of SEK 115 (from SEK 105).
At current share levels, we believe Alcadon’s equity is being valued at 16x our 2022 EV/EBIT estimate – on a par with its peer group average. Yet, in the year ahead, we expect Alcadon to outperform its peers in terms of growth.
Key Data (2022E)
Price (SEK)Reuters Bloomberg Market cap (SEKm) Market cap (USDm) Net debt (SEKm) Net gearing Net debt/EBITDA (x) Shares fully dil. (m) Avg daily turnover (m)
Free float 47%
(5) (1%) 19.64.7 (0.0) ALCA.ST ALCA:SS 1,531 162 78.00
Share Price (12M)
Absolute (green) / Relative to Sweden (purple).
30 50 70 90 110 130
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Financials (SEK)
Year end: Dec 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E
Revenues (m) 468 737 1,004 1,321 1,616
Adj. EBIT 43 69 97 130 153
Pre-tax profit (m) 38 62 93 127 150
EPS 1.72 2.65 3.71 5.01 5.93
Adj. EPS 1.74 2.85 3.77 5.08 5.99
DPS 0.00 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.15
Revenue growth (%) (3.6) 57.5 36.3 31.6 22.3
Adj. EBIT growth (%) 33.0 60.2 40.4 33.1 18.0
Adj. EPS growth (%) 44.1 63.2 32.5 34.7 18.1
Adj. EBIT margin (%) 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.8 9.5
ROE (%) 13.2 16.6 16.6 17.1 17.5
ROCE (%) 11.9 15.4 16.2 18.1 19.3
PER (x) 16.6 43.9 20.7 15.4 13.0
Free cash flow yield (%) 2.8 0.0 2.4 3.8 5.8
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.5
P/BV (x) 2.08 6.73 2.88 2.49 2.15
EV/Sales (x) 1.34 3.32 1.52 1.12 0.87
EV/Adj. EBITDA (x) 11.8 29.1 13.9 10.2 8.2
EV/Adj. EBIT (x) 14.5 35.2 15.7 11.4 9.2
Operating cash flow/EV (%) 2.7 0.2 3.2 4.8 7.3
Estimate Revisions (%)
2022E 2023E 2024E
Revenues (7) 13 29
Adj. EBIT (11) 6 10
Adj. EPS (10) 6 10
Marketing communication commissioned by:
Alcadon Group
It seems most is yet to come
We set our revised mid-point at SEK 115
Mid-point valuation summary
Midpoint DCF value (SEK) 115.00
Share price (SEK) 78.00
2022E EV/EBIT, adj. (x) 15.6
2022E adj. PER at current share price (x) 20.7
2022E DPS (2023 payout) 0.75
Low High Mid-point
DCF valuation range (SEK) 98.00 131.00 115.00
Equity potential (%) 26 68 47
2022E adj. EV/EBIT at DCF range (x) 19.2 25.8 22.6
2021E DPS yield (%) 1.0 1.0 1.0
Total return potential 27 69 48
Source: SEB
2022E: reaching sales landmark of about SEK 1bn
Source: SEB
Announced orders and impact on financial forecasts
Order Mid-range Expected start Consolidated sales
FTTH agreements/orders (SEKm) announcement total value Time frame of delivery FY/21E FY/22E FY/23E FY/24E FY/25E
Norlys I 26 May 2021 75 1Y Q4/21 37.5 39.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Emtelle (incl. FTTH project below) 28 Jun 2021 43 1.5Ys Q3/21 0.0 18.5 37.1 0.0 0.0
Norlys II 2 Jul 2021 133 3Ys (+1Y) Q4/21 7.8 32.4 32.4 24.3 0.0
FTTH project (incl. in Emtelle) 5 Jul 2021 10 1Y Q3/21
Deutsche Glasfaser 11 Aug 2021 609 3Ys (+1Y) Q3/22 0.0 105.9 211.7 211.7 105.9
Total annual order value 870 45.3 195.9 281.2 236.0 105.9
Source: SEB
114 121 125 133 145 154 162 163 160 157 154 153 150 148 144 141 137 146 159 178 195 200 206 203 199 214 228 171 222 282 343 435 448 437 428 384 368 372 351 335 338 338 334 331 361 394 463 542 576 610 695 805
1,107 1,389
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E 2023E 2024E
12M trailing sales (SEKm)
12M trailing PL sales 12M trailing brand sales
Sales growth bridge, 2017-24E (%) 12M trailing SG&A cost-to-sales forecasts (%)
Source: SEB Source: SEB
2022E: 12M trailing gross and EBIT margin forecasts (%)
Source: SEB
EPS growth forecasts, y/y (%)
Source: SEB
28.4
(14.8) (15.5) (1.3) (0.1)
27.6 31.6
22.3
(40.0) (20.0) 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E
FX Structure Organic
18.3
17.1 17.4 17.6
16.0
10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0
Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E
12M trailing SG&A excl. D&A/sales (%)
SG&A excl. D&A/sales (%)
32.1
26.3 26.8
28.7 29.9
28.9 28.1
27.0 13.2
12.6
6.7
9.3 10.2
9.7 9.4 9.7
4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0
Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E 12M trailing Adj. EBIT margins (%)
12M trailing gross margins (%)
Gross margin (%) Adj. EBIT margin (%)
1.45
2.97
2.20
1.21
1.74
2.85
3.77
5.08
5.99
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E
EPS (adjusted)
EPS CAGR 2021-23E = +34%
2021 EPS growth = +63%
EPS CAGR 2022-24E = +26%
Peer group valuation and share price performance
Ccy Share Mkt cap EV/Sales (x) EV/EBIT (x) Abs. performance (%)
Telecom/Tech & Services price price (EURm) 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E -1M -3M -12M
Network Industry & Installation peers
ADVA AG Optical Networking EUR 15.32 788 1.16 1.16 1.06 14.5 12.3 10.4 26.2 20.3 66.9
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. USD 4.37 105 1.13 0.91 0.86 n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.2 (29.1) (64.5)
Atea ASA NOK 132.40 1,462 0.47 0.37 0.35 18.1 12.9 11.5 (14.4) (16.8) (6.2)
Bravida SEK 113.20 2,241 1.23 1.00 0.92 17.9 15.3 13.7 (0.8) (11.8) 1.6
Caverion EUR 5.67 771 0.47 0.38 0.35 14.1 10.3 8.6 (9.8) (15.0) 7.9
CommScope Holding Co., Inc. USD 10.35 1,868 1.47 1.41 1.36 13.0 12.1 10.2 17.1 6.9 (24.3)
Eltel AB SEK 13.36 197 0.46 0.40 0.40 25.4 15.9 12.8 (12.1) (15.9) (48.0)
Enea SEK 187.80 394 6.43 3.97 3.52 25.7 18.9 16.1 (20.6) (25.0) (22.4)
Ericsson SEK 93.95 30,386 1.34 1.07 0.96 10.2 6.8 5.8 (8.7) (4.3) (12.5)
Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd. JPY 2,402.00 1,304 0.52 0.49 0.48 25.0 16.2 14.0 3.1 (3.5) (15.3)
GARO AB SEK 138.80 652 8.70 4.33 3.56 54.2 28.2 23.9 (19.9) (39.5) 0.6
Hexatronic Group AB SEK 331.00 1,242 6.25 2.86 2.43 59.2 25.2 20.4 (10.5) (32.6) 234.3
HMS Networks AB SEK 384.50 1,691 13.44 7.59 7.15 58.6 32.6 30.4 (12.7) (30.1) 20.9
Instalco SEK 62.30 1,583 2.65 1.57 1.31 32.6 19.8 15.9 (5.8) (25.8) 0.0
JM SEK 307.40 2,050 2.07 1.54 1.52 14.9 12.1 11.7 (14.7) (25.5) 4.4
Lagercrantz Group AB Class B SEK 91.50 1,708 3.84 3.49 3.31 27.0 24.3 22.7 (12.5) (28.8) 19.8
LEONI AG EUR 10.72 835 0.37 0.37 0.35 11.6 13.6 10.8 15.8 (7.7) (15.2)
Netel Holding AB SEK 45.00 197 1.01 0.74 0.61 14.0 10.1 8.3 2.3 (8.0) n.a.
Nexans SA EUR 82.00 3,588 0.65 0.56 0.54 12.7 11.0 9.6 (1.8) (8.6) 24.5
NKT DKK 271.40 1,568 1.07 0.80 0.61 72.7 28.0 9.7 (5.8) (17.0) (0.9)
Nokia EUR 4.91 28,057 1.07 0.84 0.77 8.6 6.7 5.6 (2.6) (5.9) 44.7
Prysmian S.p.A. EUR 28.33 7,597 0.94 0.79 0.76 18.4 14.2 12.6 (8.5) (18.8) 5.9
Rexel SA EUR 20.53 6,276 0.55 0.55 0.53 9.0 9.3 8.8 2.8 15.3 31.9
Solar DKK 708.00 695 0.47 0.43 0.43 8.6 8.3 8.2 1.1 (7.0) 49.1
Ubiquiti Inc. USD 250.37 13,591 10.45 8.46 7.41 n.a. 25.9 18.6 (11.5) (15.7) (27.6)
WESCO International, Inc. USD 122.46 5,446 0.62 0.56 0.54 11.5 9.6 8.9 0.2 (10.1) 50.2
Network Industry & Installation services, avg 2.65 1.79 1.62 24.1 16.0 13.2 (3.5) (13.8) 13.0 Network Industry & Installation services, med 1.10 0.88 0.81 16.4 13.6 11.5 (5.8) (15.4) 1.6
Alcadon Group SEK 78.00 139 3.32 1.52 1.12 35.2 15.7 11.4 (14.1) (16.1) 128.1
Discount/(Premium) to peers, avg (%/pp) (25.3) 15.3 30.8 (46.4) 2.1 13.3 10.6 2.3 (115.0)
Discount/(Premium) to peers, med (%/pp) (201.9) (73.5) (37.9) (115.1) (15.2) 0.4 8.3 0.8 (126.5)
Source: SEB, Factset
Indexed share price performance, -1Y Peer group 2022 EV/EBIT estimates (x)
Source: SEB, Factset Source: SEB, Factset
238.01
102.06 336.04
0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00
22/02/2021 01/03/202108/03/2021 15/03/2021 22/03/2021 29/03/2021 05/04/2021 12/04/202119/04/2021 26/04/2021 03/05/2021 10/05/2021 17/05/2021 24/05/202131/05/2021 07/06/2021 14/06/2021 21/06/2021 28/06/2021 05/07/202112/07/2021 19/07/2021 26/07/2021 02/08/2021 09/08/2021 16/08/202123/08/2021 30/08/2021 06/09/2021 13/09/2021 20/09/2021 27/09/202104/10/2021 11/10/2021 18/10/2021 25/10/2021 01/11/2021 08/11/202115/11/2021 22/11/2021 29/11/2021 06/12/2021 13/12/2021 20/12/202127/12/2021 03/01/2022 10/01/2022 17/01/2022 24/01/202231/01/2022 07/02/2022 14/02/2022 21/02/2022
ALCA-SE GARO-SE HTRO-SE SOLAR.B-DK HMS-SE BRAV-SE INSTAL-SE JM-SE
6.7 6.8 8.3 9.3 9.6 10.1 10.3 11.0 12.1
12.1 12.3 12.9 13.6 13.6 14.2 15.3 15.7 15.9 16.2 18.9 19.8 24.3 25.2 25.9 28.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Nokia EricssonSolar Rexel SA WESCO International, Inc.Netel Holding ABNexans SACaverionJM CommScope Holding Co., Inc.
ADVA AG Optical NetworkingLEONI AGAtea ASA Network Industry & Installation services, medLagercrantz Group AB Class BFurukawa Electric Co., Ltd.Hexatronic Group ABPrysmian S.p.A.Alcadon GroupUbiquiti Inc.BravidaEltel ABInstalcoEneaNKT
EV/EBIT (x) 2022E
Peer group sales CAGR 2021-23E forecasts (%)
Source: SEB, Factset
Mid-point DCF valuation summary
Source: SEB
DCF valuation scenario analyses: growth vs. margins (SEK p. sh.)
Source: SEB
DCF valuation scenario analyses: cost of equity vs. equity weight (SEK p. sh.)
Source: SEB
0.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.8 6.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 9.4 9.4 9.7 11.0 12.9 19.5 22.2 23.0 23.4 29.6 33.9
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
Eltel AB LEONI AG Nokia CommScope Holding Co., Inc.
Atea ASASolarJM Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd.Prysmian S.p.A.Caverion WESCO International, Inc.Ericsson Rexel SA Ubiquiti Inc.Nexans SA Bravida Lagercrantz Group AB Class BADVA AG Optical Networking Network Industry & Installation services, avgApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.
Enea HMS Networks ABInstalco Netel Holding ABGARO ABNKT Hexatronic Group ABAlcadon Group
Sales CAGR 2021-23E (%)
DCF valuation (SEKm) Weighted average cost of capital (%)
NPV of FCF in explicit forecast period 871 Risk free interest rate 2.5
NPV of continuing value 1,506 Risk premium 5.0
Value of operation 2,377 Cost of equity 7.5
Net debt 120 After tax cost of debt 2.0
Share issue/buy-back in forecast period -
Value of associated companies - WACC 7.2
Value of minority shareholders' equity -
Value of marketable assets - Assumptions
DCF value of equity 2,258 Number of forecast years 10
DCF value per share (SEK) 115.00 EBIT margin - steady state (%) 11.0
Current share price (SEK) 78.00 EBIT multiple - steady state (x) 11.1
DCF performance potential (%) 47 Continuing value (% of NPV) 63.3
-2% -1% 0 +1% +2%
-2% 84.7 94.2 103.7 113.2 122.8
Abs. change in -1% 89.1 99.2 109.2 119.3 129.4
sales growth - 0 93.7 104.4 115.0 125.7 136.4
all years +1% 98.6 109.9 121.2 132.4 143.7
+2% 103.8 115.7 127.6 139.5 151.4
Absolute change in EBITDA margin - all years
6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
75 180.1 165.4 152.6 141.5 131.6
Equity capital 85 155.9 142.9 131.6 121.8 113.1
weight (%) 95 136.7 125.1 115.0 106.3 98.5
100 128.5 117.5 108.0 99.6 92.3
100 128.5 117.5 108.0 99.6 92.3
Cost of equity (%)
The case of M&A
Historical M&A track record and valuation
Historical acquisitions combined, 2017-21 (SEKm)
Annual sales 526.4
EBIT 43.5
EBIT % 8.3
EV paid 263.0
EV/EBIT paid (x) 6.0
Source: SEB
Estimating the acquisition capacity
What if: estimating acquisition value potential in Alcadon Group 2022E
Assumed EV/EBIT multiples on acquisitions (x) 6.0
Cash spent on acquisitions (SEKm) 750
Acquired EBIT (SEKm) 125
Acquired EBITDA (SEKm) 163
Financing cost @ 3.5% (SEKm) (26)
Increased pre-tax profit (SEKm) 99
Increased net income @ 22% tax rate (SEKm) 77
No of shares (m) 18.0
Increased EPS (SEK) 4.29
Network Infrastructure peer group PER 2022E, median (x) 16.0
Assumed PER post-15% discount to peer group median (x) 14.0
Value increase per share @ peer median PER post-15% discount (SEK) 60.00 Source: SEB
M&A scenario net debt-to-EBITDA (x)
ND/EBITDA acq. scenario analysis 2022E
Current ND (excl. IFRS-16), y/e 2021 (SEKm) 118
Current EBITDA (SEKm) 80
Current ND/EBITDA (x) 1.47
ND (excl. IFRS-16), post-acq (SEKm) 868
EBITDA, post-acq. (SEKm) 243
ND (excl. IFRS-16)/EBITDA, post-acq (x) 3.57
Estimated covenant 3.50
Source: SEB
Net debt (SEKm) and net debt-to-EBITDA (x) forecasts
Source: SEB 3.13 3.27
2.77 2.39
1.49 1.29 2.03 2.26
2.00 2.73 2.98 3.30
2.57 2.59 1.83
2.43 2.08 1.91 1.82
1.32 1.47
(0.34)(0.56) (0.88)
(5.00) (4.00) (3.00) (2.00) (1.00) 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
(250.0) (200.0) (150.0) (100.0) (50.0) 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0
Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 2022E 2023E 2024E ND/adj. EBITDA (x)
Net debt (SEKm)
Net debt, excl.lease debt Lease obligations (IFRS 16)
ND excl. IFRS 16/adj. EBITDA (x) SEB estimated covenant (excl. IFRS-16) (x)
Financial forecasts
Sales forecasts - by market segment
Segment sales (SEKm) Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E
Net sales
Commercial Properties 52.3 60.7 47.8 58.0 57.0 65.6 53.1 65.0 218.8 240.6 247.8 260.7
Fiber Networks/FTTx 86.5 88.3 111.4 117.4 120.2 122.3 187.4 214.0 403.7 643.9 950.9 1,224.9
Residential 20.7 20.3 16.3 20.2 21.9 20.7 17.0 20.9 77.5 80.6 83.0 89.7
Services & Training 10.5 8.0 7.2 10.9 10.6 8.2 7.3 12.6 36.6 38.8 39.5 40.7
Group net sales 170.0 177.4 182.7 206.4 209.8 216.8 264.8 312.5 736.5 1,004.0 1,321.2 1,616.0 of which: 6X International 57.5 56.6 81.2 87.7 92.7 93.3 160.6 189.3 283.0 535.9 845.6 1,116.3 Sales growth (%)
Commercial Properties (9.8) 2.5 15.6 20.5 9.0 8.0 11.0 12.2 5.9 10.0 3.0 5.2
Fiber Networks/FTTx 109.7 84.8 226.3 218.1 39.0 38.5 68.2 82.2 152.1 59.5 47.7 28.8
Residential (24.7) 3.6 (3.6) (2.9) 6.0 2.2 4.2 3.6 (8.6) 4.0 3.0 8.0
Services & Training 172.7 78.7 166.7 119.4 1.0 2.0 2.0 16.4 128.8 6.0 1.8 3.1
Sales growth (%) 30.2 35.3 92.2 86.4 23.4 22.2 44.9 51.4 57.5 36.3 31.6 22.3
of which: 6X International n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 89.4 57.8 32.0
Sales contributions (%)
Commercial Properties 31 34 26 28 27 30 20 21 30 24 19 16
Fiber Networks/FTTx 51 50 61 57 57 56 71 68 55 64 72 76
Residential 12 11 9 10 10 10 6 7 11 8 6 6
Services & Training 6 5 4 5 5 4 3 4 5 4 3 3
Group sales contributions 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
of which: 6X International 33.8 31.9 44.4 42.5 44.2 43.0 60.6 60.6 38.4 53.4 64.0 69.1
Source: SEB
Sales forecasts - by geographical market
Geographical sales (SEKm) Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E Sales by market
Sweden 78.3 87.6 69.6 80.9 86.7 100.4 72.6 68.6 316.4 328.3 343.5 362.3
Denmark 53.1 40.9 64.0 74.0 62.8 64.1 106.9 134.8 232.0 368.6 420.3 479.3
Norway 34.2 33.2 33.4 35.2 30.4 23.1 31.7 45.3 136.0 130.5 132.1 137.4
Other Europe 4.4 15.7 15.7 16.3 29.8 29.3 53.6 63.7 52.1 176.5 425.3 637.1
Group net sales 170.0 177.4 182.7 206.4 209.8 216.8 264.8 312.5 736.5 1,004.0 1,321.2 1,616.0 Sales growth by market (%)
Sweden (19.7) (7.5) 0.3 (0.6) 10.7 14.6 4.3 (15.2) (7.7) 3.8 4.6 5.5
Denmark n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 18.4 56.6 67.1 82.2 n.a. 58.9 14.0 14.0
Norway 3.3 (8.8) 30.1 19.6 (11.1) (30.4) (5.2) 28.8 9.1 (4.0) 1.2 4.0
Other Europe n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 238.8 141.0 49.8
Sales growth (%) 30.2 35.3 92.2 86.4 23.4 22.2 44.9 51.4 57.5 36.3 31.6 22.3
Sales contributions by market (%)
Sweden 46 49 38 39 41 46 27 22 43 33 26 22
Denmark 31 23 35 36 30 30 40 43 32 37 32 30
Norway 20 19 18 17 14 11 12 15 18 13 10 9
Other Europe 3 9 9 8 14 14 20 20 7 18 32 39
Sales contributions by market (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: SEB
P&L forecast assumptions - by company division
P&Ls by segment (SEKm) Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E Net sales
Alcadon 112.5 120.8 101.5 118.7 117.1 123.5 104.2 123.2 453.5 468.1 475.7 499.7
6X international 57.5 56.6 81.2 87.7 92.7 93.3 160.6 189.3 283.0 535.9 845.6 1,116.3
Group net sales 170.0 177.4 182.7 206.4 209.8 216.8 264.8 312.5 736.5 1,004.0 1,321.2 1,616.0 Gross profit
Alcadon 35.0 38.2 34.7 38.4 34.2 39.9 33.9 41.8 146.4 149.8 156.8 164.8
6X international 14.1 12.7 16.1 17.9 22.2 21.2 33.8 43.8 60.7 121.0 192.6 256.0
Gross profits 49.1 50.9 50.8 56.3 56.4 61.1 67.7 85.6 207.1 270.8 349.4 420.9
Gross margin (%)
Alcadon 31.1 31.7 34.2 32.4 29.2 32.3 32.5 33.9 32.3 32.0 33.0 33.0
6X international 24.5 22.4 19.8 20.4 23.9 22.7 21.0 23.2 21.4 22.6 22.8 22.9
Gross margin (%) 28.9 28.7 27.8 27.3 26.9 28.2 25.6 27.4 28.1 27.0 26.4 26.0
Adj. EBIT
Alcadon 10.1 13.3 8.7 7.2 8.4 15.5 5.9 12.2 39.3 42.0 38.2 28.9
6X international 7.5 3.9 9.4 8.8 10.5 6.3 18.7 19.9 29.6 55.4 91.5 124.3
Adj. EBIT 17.6 17.2 18.1 16.0 18.9 21.8 24.6 32.1 68.9 97.5 129.7 153.2
Adj. EBIT margin (%)
Alcadon 9.0 11.0 8.6 6.1 7.2 12.6 5.7 9.9 8.7 9.0 8.0 5.8
6X international 13.0 6.9 11.6 10.0 11.3 6.8 11.6 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.8 11.1
Adj. EBIT margin (%) 10.4 9.7 9.9 7.8 9.0 10.1 9.3 10.3 9.4 9.7 9.8 9.5
Source: SEB
Main forecast assumptions – consolidated
Main forecast assumptions (%) Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E Net sales growth, y/y (%)
FX (2.3) (0.8) (0.8) 0.4 2.7 2.5 3.3 3.7 (2.4) (0.8) 3.1 0.0 0.0
Structure 44.0 43.2 73.1 81.1 5.8 6.4 5.7 4.4 0.0 58.5 5.5 0.0 0.0
Organic (11.5) (7.1) 19.8 4.9 15.0 13.3 35.9 43.4 (1.3) (0.1) 27.7 31.6 22.3
Total net sales 30.2 35.3 92.2 86.4 23.4 22.2 44.9 51.4 (3.6) 57.5 36.3 31.6 22.3
Private Labels 23.2 37.3 63.6 53.4 11.1 11.1 (5.1) (8.8) (9.2) 42.8 2.0 7.5 6.4
Brands 33.1 34.6 105.0 100.0 28.3 26.5 62.9 70.6 (1.1) 63.6 48.7 37.6 25.4
Total net sales 30.2 35.3 92.2 86.4 23.4 22.2 44.9 51.4 (3.6) 57.5 36.3 31.6 22.3
Gross margin bridge (pp)
Price/mix 5.6 (2.0) 2.1 1.0 0.8 2.0 7.2 10.0 3.7 2.0 5.7 3.4 1.7
PL share (1.6) 0.4 (4.6) (5.2) (2.8) (2.5) (9.1) (9.6) (1.8) (2.7) (6.7) (3.6) (2.1)
US dollar impact 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 (0.3) (0.3) (0.1) 0.2 (0.1) (0.2) 0.0
Other 0.2 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 0.1 (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0)
Gross margin, change, y/y (pp) 4.4 (1.3) (2.1) (3.9) (2.0) (0.5) (2.2) 0.1 2.0 (0.6) (1.1) (0.5) (0.4)
Gross margin (%) 28.9 28.7 27.8 27.3 26.9 28.2 25.6 27.4 28.7 28.1 27.0 26.4 26.0
Source: SEB
Growth and margin forecasts
Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E Growth & margins (%)
Revenue growth (%) 30.2 35.3 92.2 86.4 23.4 22.2 44.9 51.4 (3.6) 57.5 36.3 31.6 22.3
Organic growth (%) (11.5) (7.1) 19.8 4.9 15.0 13.3 35.9 43.4 (1.3) (0.1) 27.7 31.6 22.3
Adj. EBITA growth (%) 90.5 (0.4) 150.0 81.4 7.3 26.5 35.3 97.7 33.1 61.9 40.5 32.6 17.8
Adj. EBIT growth (%) 87.2 (2.4) 147.9 77.8 7.5 27.1 36.1 100.2 33.0 59.1 41.4 33.1 18.0
Pre-tax profit growth (%) 74.7 (2.4) 209.4 78.8 19.9 30.7 41.0 124.2 53.2 61.7 53.1 36.0 18.3
Net profit growth (%) 68.7 1.3 220.0 73.2 19.9 28.1 41.0 131.0 52.0 61.9 53.7 36.0 18.3
Adj. EPS growth (%) 78.2 (2.1) 186.7 84.3 (0.2) 16.4 22.2 98.1 44.0 61.5 33.9 34.7 18.1
Gross margin (%) 28.9 28.7 27.8 27.3 26.9 28.2 25.6 27.4 28.7 28.1 27.0 26.4 26.0
GM chg, y/y (pp) 4.4 (1.3) (2.1) (3.9) (2.0) (0.5) (2.2) 0.1 2.0 (0.6) (1.1) (0.5) (0.4)
EBITDA margin (%) 11.3 11.4 11.1 8.6 10.6 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.3 10.5 11.0 11.0 10.6
EBITA margin (%) 9.8 9.9 9.7 7.6 9.2 10.3 9.5 10.4 9.3 9.2 9.9 9.9 9.6
EBIT margin (%) 9.5 9.7 9.5 7.4 9.0 10.1 9.3 10.3 9.2 8.9 9.7 9.8 9.5
Pre-tax profit margin (%) 8.5 8.8 9.0 7.0 8.3 9.5 8.7 10.4 8.1 8.3 9.3 9.6 9.3
Net profit margin (%) 6.4 7.0 7.0 5.3 6.2 7.4 6.8 8.1 6.2 6.4 7.2 7.4 7.2
Adj. EBITA margin (%) 10.6 9.9 10.1 8.0 9.2 10.3 9.5 10.4 9.3 9.6 9.9 9.9 9.6
Adj. EBIT margin (%) 10.4 9.7 9.9 7.8 9.0 10.1 9.3 10.3 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.8 9.5
Source: SEB
Financial forecasts - consolidated
Consolidated P&L (SEKm) Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22E Q2/22E Q3/22E Q4/22E 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E Net sales 170.0 177.4 182.7 206.4 209.8 216.8 264.8 312.5 467.6 736.5 1,004.0 1,321.2 1,616.0 Cost of goods sold (120.9) (126.5) (131.9) (150.1) (153.4) (155.7) (197.1) (226.9) (333.3) (529.4) (733.2) (971.8) (1,195.2) Gross profit 49.1 50.9 50.8 56.3 56.4 61.1 67.7 85.6 134.2 207.1 270.8 349.4 420.9 SG&A total (excl. D&A) (29.9) (30.7) (30.5) (38.5) (34.1) (36.9) (38.7) (51.0) (81.4) (129.7) (160.7) (203.9) (249.4)
EBITDA 19.2 20.2 20.3 17.8 22.3 24.2 29.0 34.6 52.9 77.5 110.0 145.5 171.5
Depr. of fixed assets (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.1) (0.9) 0.1 (1.8) (0.0) (0.8) (1.7) (2.7) (5.8) (8.4)
Depr. of ROU asset (IFRS16) (2.0) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.0) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (8.7) (8.3) (8.3) (8.3) (8.3)
EBITA 16.6 17.6 17.7 15.6 19.3 22.2 25.0 32.5 43.4 67.5 99.1 131.3 154.8
Amortisation (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.2) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6)
Impairments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total D&A (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) (2.6) (3.3) (2.4) (4.3) (2.5) (9.7) (11.6) (12.6) (15.7) (18.3)
EBIT 16.2 17.2 17.3 15.2 18.9 21.8 24.6 32.1 43.1 65.9 97.5 129.7 153.2
o/w: total NRIs (1.4) 0.0 (0.8) (0.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (3.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adj. EBIT 17.6 17.2 18.1 16.0 18.9 21.8 24.6 32.1 43.3 68.9 97.5 129.7 153.2
Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net financials (incl. assoc. income) (1.7) (1.5) (0.9) (0.7) (1.5) (1.4) (1.5) 0.4 (5.4) (4.8) (4.0) (2.6) (2.8)
Pre-tax profit 14.5 15.7 16.4 14.5 17.4 20.5 23.1 32.5 37.8 61.1 93.5 127.1 150.4
Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax paid on pretax profit (3.7) (3.2) (3.6) (3.3) (4.4) (4.5) (5.1) (7.1) (10.3) (13.8) (21.1) (28.7) (34.0)
Paid tax rate, % 25.5 20.4 22.0 22.8 25.5 22.0 22.0 21.9 27.3 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6
Tax deferred 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 (0.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Full tax rate, % 25.5 20.4 22.0 24.2 25.5 22.0 22.0 21.9 23.0 22.9 22.6 22.6 22.6
Reported after tax profit 10.8 12.5 12.8 11.0 13.0 16.0 18.0 25.4 29.1 47.1 72.4 98.4 116.4
Total adjustments 1.8 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Tax effect of adj. (incl. in taxes) (0.5) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (1.1) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) Adjusted profit after tax 12.1 12.8 13.7 11.9 13.3 16.3 18.4 25.7 29.4 50.6 73.6 99.6 117.6 Adjustments
Cash NRIs (1.4) 0.0 (0.8) (0.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (3.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-cash NRIs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total NRIs (1.4) 0.0 (0.8) (0.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (3.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
EPS, reported 0.61 0.70 0.72 0.61 0.66 0.82 0.92 1.30 1.72 2.62 3.71 5.01 5.93
EPS, adj. 0.68 0.72 0.77 0.66 0.68 0.83 0.94 1.32 1.74 2.82 3.77 5.08 5.99
Adj. EBITDA 21 20 21 19 22 24 29 35 53 80 110 145 171
Adj. EBITA 18 18 19 16 19 22 25 32 44 71 99 131 155
Adj. EBIT 18 17 18 16 19 22 25 32 43 69 97 130 153
No of shares, avg., f. dil, adj. (m) 17.841 17.841 17.841 17.966 19.518 19.518 19.518 19.518 16.859 17.966 19.518 19.625 19.625 Source: SEB
Main ownership
No of shares Shares Votes Domicile Verified Shareholder structure
Investment AB Spiltan 2,230,893 12.16% 12.16% Sweden 2021-12-31
Anders Bladh (Ribbskottet AB) 2,000,000 10.90% 10.90% Sweden 2021-12-31
Athanase Industrial Partners 1,443,507 7.87% 7.87% Sweden 2021-12-31
Consensus Asset Management 1,130,000 5.76% 5.76% Sweden 2022-01-31
Susanne Stengade 981,780 5.35% 5.35% Denmark 2021-12-31
Avanza Pension 907,102 4.95% 4.95% Sweden 2021-12-31
Danske Invest (Lux) 730,000 3.72% 3.72% Luxembourg 2022-01-31
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 658,533 3.59% 3.59% Sweden 2021-12-31
Theodor Jeansson 530,000 2.89% 2.89% Sweden 2021-12-31
Ålandsbanken Fonder 472,000 2.41% 2.41% Finland 2022-01-31
Top-10 11,083,815 59.60% 59.60%
Others 8,434,305 40.40% 40.40%
Total 19,518,120 100.00% 100.00%
Free float (%) 58%
Foreign ownership (%) 18%
Source: SEB
Earnings revisions
(SEK) 2022E 2023E 2024E
Revenues (m)
Old 1,077 1,166 1,251
New 1,004 1,321 1,616
Change (%) (7) 13 29
Operating profit (m)
Old 109 123 139
New 97 130 153
Change (%) (11) 6 10
EPS (adjusted)
Old 4.20 4.78 5.45
New 3.77 5.08 5.99
Change (%) (10) 6 10
Source: SEB
Q4 deviation of reported from expected results
Q4/21E Deviation vs. SEB Deviation vs. Cons. Q4/20 Q3/21
P&Ls (IFRS-16) Actual SEB Cons* Abs Rel (%) Abs Rel (%) Actual y/y (%) Actual q/q (%)
Consolidated (SEKm)
Revenue 206.4 205.0 202.0 1.4 0.7 4.4 2.2 110.8 86.4 182.7 13.0
Cost of goods sold (150.1) (148.6) 146.0 (1.5) 1.0 (296.1) (202.8) (76.3) 96.9 (131.9) 13.8
Gross profits 56.3 56.4 56.0 (0.1) (0.2) 0.3 0.5 34.5 63.1 50.8 10.8
SG&A (excl. D&A) (38.5) (34.5) n.a. (4.0) 11.7 n.a. n.a. (22.9) 68.5 (30.5) 26.3
EBITDA 17.8 21.9 21.0 (4.2) (19.0) (3.2) (15.4) 11.6 52.5 20.3 (12.5)
Depr. (incl IFRS16 leases) (2.2) (3.4) n.a. 1.3 (37.0) n.a. n.a. (2.2) (2.3) (2.6) (17.3)
EBITA 15.6 18.5 n.a. (2.9) (15.7) n.a. n.a. 9.4 65.3 17.7 (11.8)
Adj. EBITA 16.4 18.5 n.a. (2.1) (11.3) n.a. n.a. 9.0 81.4 18.5 (11.2)
Amort. (0.4) 0.2 n.a. (0.6) n.a. n.a. n.a. (0.0) n.a. (0.4) n.a.
Impairments 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a.
EBIT 15.2 18.7 18.0 (3.5) (18.5) (2.8) (15.4) 9.4 61.7 17.3 (12.0)
o/w NRIs, total (0.8) 0.0 (0.8) (0.8) n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.4 n.a. (0.8) 0.0
Adj. EBIT 16.0 18.7 18.8 (2.7) (14.2) (2.8) (14.8) 9.0 77.8 18.1 (11.5)
Net financials (excl. assoc.) (0.7) (0.9) (1.0) 0.2 (20.8) 0.3 (26.0) (1.3) (43.5) (0.9) (17.8)
Pre-tax profit 14.5 17.7 17.0 (3.3) (18.4) (2.5) (14.8) 8.1 78.8 16.4 (11.7)
Total taxes (3.3) (4.3) (4.0) 1.0 (23.2) 0.7 (17.5) (3.4) (1.8) (3.6) (8.3)
After tax profit, reported 11.2 13.4 13.0 (2.3) (16.9) (1.8) (14.0) 4.7 135.9 12.8 (12.7)
Adjustments, net of tax effect 0.9 (0.1) n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. (0.2) n.a. 0.9 n.a.
Adjusted after tax profit 12.1 13.3 13.0 (1.2) (9.2) (0.9) (6.9) 4.5 167.3 13.7 (11.9)
EPS, reported 0.62 0.75 0.72 (0.13) (16.9) (0.10) (14.0) 0.28 121.3 0.72 (13.3)
EPS, adj 0.67 0.74 0.72 (0.07) (9.2) (0.05) (6.9) 0.27 150.8 0.77 (12.5)
DPS 0.50 0.50 0.70 0.00 0.0 (0.20) (28.6) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
No of shares, f. dil (m) 17.966 17.966 17.966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.859 6.6 17.841 0.7
Growth & margins (%)
Revenue growth 86.4 85.1 82.4 n.a. 1.2 n.a. 4.0 206.4 (120.1) 202.0 (115.6)
Organic growth 4.9 5.4 n.a. n.a. (0.5) n.a. n.a. (3.7) 8.6 19.8 (14.9)
Underlying EBIT growth 77.8 107.3 108.7 n.a. (29.5) n.a. (30.9) 16.0 61.8 18.8 59.0
Gross margin 27.3 27.5 27.7 n.a. (0.2) n.a. (0.5) 31.2 (3.9) 27.8 (0.5)
Adj. SG&A excl. D&A/sales 19.5 18.4 n.a. n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. 23.0 (3.5) 17.9 1.6
Adj. EBITA margin 8.0 9.0 n.a. n.a. (1.1) n.a. n.a. 8.2 (0.2) 10.1 (2.2)
Adj. EBIT margin 7.8 9.1 9.3 n.a. (1.3) n.a. (1.5) 8.1 (0.4) 9.9 (2.1)
PTP margin 7.0 8.7 8.4 n.a. (1.6) n.a. (1.4) 7.3 (0.3) 9.0 (2.0)
Net margin 5.4 6.6 6.4 n.a. (1.1) n.a. (1.0) 4.3 1.1 7.0 (1.6)
Tax rate 22.8 24.2 23.5 n.a. (1.4) n.a. (0.7) 41.5 (18.7) 22.0 0.8
Revenue by segment
Commercial Properties 58.0 50.0 n.a. 8.0 15.9 n.a. n.a. 48.1 20.5 47.8 21.2
Fiber Networks/FTTx 117.4 122.0 n.a. (4.6) (3.8) n.a. n.a. 36.9 218.1 111.4 5.4
Residential 20.2 22.0 n.a. (1.8) (8.1) n.a. n.a. 20.8 (2.9) 16.3 23.9
Services & Training 10.9 11.1 n.a. (0.2) (1.8) n.a. n.a. 5.0 119.4 7.2 50.8
Total net sales 206.4 205.0 n.a. 1.4 0.7 n.a. n.a. 110.8 86.4 182.7 13.0
of which: 6X International 87.7 87.4 n.a. 0.3 0.3 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. 81.2 8.0
Source: SEB, Factset
SEAM (SEB’s ESG Assessment Methodology)
Overview
Investment considerations We believe Alcadon offers good exposure to the roll-out of 5G technology, the increasing use of edge computing (cloud), and industrial automation trends (Industry 4.0 or internet of things). To support the volume of connections, low latency and connection speeds, critical to 5G applications, this requires a much denser network infrastructure. Here, Alcadon has carved out a leading market position in the premium network equipment segment. Increasing private label sales and SG&A leverage add to EPS growth.
Company profile From organic and M&A growth, since its start in 1988, Alcadon Group has achieved a market leading position in Sweden and in Norway as a developer and distributor of structured cable systems (SCS) and solutions for commercial properties (44% of sales), fibre (34%) and residential (18%) networks. Its assortment includes fibre- and copper-based products and passive and active components. In 2012 DistIT Group acquired and owned Alcadon until in 2016 when the company was distributed, "Lex Asea", to shareholders and separately listed. Since then the acquisition of Danish 6X is the most important, adding geographical scope, new business segments and cross-selling opportunities. Post-consolidation of 6X, more than 25% of sales are being derived from private label systems (ECS and DC-Line), carrying higher margins compared to branded goods. Here, Alcadon has trained and certified a base of 4,000 installers working with ECS and DC-Line and there are over 2m systems in operation in the Nordic region.
Valuation approach Based on our earnings estimates, we believe Alcadon is valued at about 16x our 2022 EV/EBIT estimate, on a par with its peer group average valuation. At our mid- point DCF-based equity value of SEK 115 per share, this would imply about 22x 2022E EV/EBIT and in our opinion a more reasonable premium to peers, as justified by its strong balance sheet and structural growth opportunities.
Investment risks 5G will be a much more expensive technology to roll out, implying that timing decisions could affect Alcadon's earnings and our valuation significantly. Moreover, Alcadon's financial disclosure and historical track record as a listed company are limited which could mean a higher equity risk premium in the medium term.
Revenues by region ROCE forecasts
Source: SEB Source: SEB
Sweden: 73% Other Nordic: 27%
Other Europe: 0% Americas: 0%
Asia: 0% RoW: 0%
20.3
18.5
0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 24.0 28.0 32.0 36.0 40.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E
ROCE incl. IFRS-16, 6Y avg (2016-2021) ROCE excl. IFRS-16, 3Y f'cast avg (2022-2024E)
ROCE (incl. IFRS-16) ROCE (excl. IFRS-16)
PER - 12 month forward P/BV - 12 month forward
Source: SEB Source: SEB
EV/Sales - 12 month forward EV/EBITA - 12 month forward
Source: SEB Source: SEB
Net sales & EBITDA margin EBIT & Operating margin
Source: SEB Source: SEB
Comparison with sector index - 1 year Comparison with Hexatronic Group - 1 year
Source: SIX Source: SIX
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
2016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E
(%)
(SEKm)
Net sales EBITDA margin
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
2016 2019 2022
(%)
P/BV - 12 month forward
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E
(%)
(SEKm)
EBIT Operating margin
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2016 2019 2022
(x)
PER - 12 month forward
0 5 10 15 20 25
2016 2019 2022
(x)
EV/EBITA - 12 month forward
0.0
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
2016 2019 2022
(x)
EV/Sales - 12 month forward
30 50 70 90 110 130
Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 Jan 22
Alcadon Group Rel Nordic IT/Technology10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Feb 21 May 21 Aug 21 Nov 21 Jan 22
Alcadon Group Rel Hexatronic GroupProfit & loss statement - Alcadon Group
(SEKm) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E
Net Sales 285 580 544 485 468 737 1,004 1,321 1,616
Other revenues 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total revenues 285 580 544 485 468 737 1,004 1,321 1,616
Total expenses (250) (508) (486) (444) (415) (659) (894) (1,176) (1,445)
Profit before depreciation 35 72 58 41 53 78 110 145 171
Depreciation - Fixed assets (0) (1) (1) (1) (1) (2) (3) (6) (8)
Depreciation - Other assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Depreciation of right-of-use assets 0 0 0 (9) (9) (8) (8) (8) (8)
Amortisation - Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Amortisation - Other intangibles (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (2) (2) (2) (2)
Operating profit 35 71 57 31 43 66 97 130 153
Net interest expenses (6) (9) (9) (5) (5) (4) (3) (2) (2)
Foreign exchange items (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 0 0 0
Other financial items 0 0 (1) (1) 0 0 0 0 0
Value changes - Fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Value changes - Financial assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Value changes - Other assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reported pre-tax profit 29 63 47 25 38 62 93 127 150
Minority interests (3) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total taxes (7) (14) (11) (6) (9) (14) (21) (29) (34)
Reported profit after tax 20 49 36 19 29 48 72 98 116
Discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Profit 20 49 36 19 29 48 72 98 116
Adjustments:
Discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest on convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minority interests (IFRS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Value changes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Goodwill/intangibles amortisations 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2
Restructuring charges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other adjustments 3 0 1 2 0 3 0 0 0
Tax effect of adjustments (1) (0) (0) (0) (0) (1) (0) (0) (0)
Adjusted profit after tax 22 49 37 20 29 51 74 100 118
Margins, tax & returns
Operating margin 12.2 12.3 10.5 6.4 9.2 9.0 9.7 9.8 9.5
Pre-tax margin 10.2 10.8 8.6 5.1 8.1 8.4 9.3 9.6 9.3
Tax rate 22.6 22.6 22.8 22.4 23.0 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.6
ROE 66.1 47.5 21.4 9.5 13.2 16.6 16.6 17.1 17.5
ROCE 37.9 28.9 18.1 9.4 11.9 15.4 16.2 18.1 19.3
Growth rates y-o-y (%)
Total revenues n.a. 103.3 (6.2) (10.8) (3.6) 57.5 36.3 31.6 22.3
Operating profit n.m. 105.5 (20.4) (45.4) 38.7 54.0 46.8 33.1 18.0
Pre-tax profit n.m. 116.9 (25.3) (47.5) 53.2 63.0 51.8 36.0 18.3
EPS (adjusted) 0.0 105.1 (25.9) (44.9) 44.1 63.2 32.5 34.7 18.1
Cash flow
(SEKm) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E
Net profit 20 49 36 19 29 48 72 98 116
Non-cash adjustments (0) 14 (1) (6) (2) 6 7 10 13
Cash flow before work cap 19 62 35 13 27 53 79 109 129
Ch. in working capital / Other (4) (9) 7 8 (10) (48) (31) (37) (27)
Operating cash flow 15 53 43 21 17 5 49 72 102
Capital expenditures (1) (1) (1) (0) (4) (5) (12) (13) (14)
Asset disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L/T financial investments 0 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 0 0
Acquisitions / adjustments 0 (32) (45) (2) (5) (44) 0 0 0
Free cash flow 15 19 (3) 19 8 (44) 37 59 89
Net loan proceeds (20) 3 (5) (21) (20) 38 (19) (19) (19)
Dividend paid 0 0 (8) (8) 0 0 (9) (15) (20)
Share issue 0 0 0 1 0 29 128 0 0
Other 26 0 0 (0) 0 0 0 (0) (0)
Net change in cash 21 23 (16) (10) (12) 23 138 26 50
Adjustments
C/flow bef chng in work cap 19 62 35 13 27 53 79 109 129
Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Int on conv debt net of tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash earnings 19 62 35 13 27 53 79 109 129
Per share information
Cash earnings 1.27 3.79 2.09 0.76 1.59 2.97 4.07 5.54 6.58
Operating cash flow 0.99 3.23 2.53 1.23 1.01 0.28 2.5 3.66 5.22
Free cash flow 0.95 1.18 (0.2) 1.12 0.48 (2.45) 1.9 3.0 4.51
Investment cover
Capex/sales (%) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.9
Capex/depreciation (%) 120 182 57 19 353 297 438 221 166
Source for all data on this page: SEB
