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AND D 1E;"VELOPME

d

A-FRTCA

Energy Development in Southern Africa

SADCC Country Studies, Part II

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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT I N AFRICA 4

ENERGY A N D D E V E L O P M E N T I N SOUTHERN A F R I C A SADCC COUNTRY S T U D I E S P A R T

I 1

Edited

by

Phi1 O'Keefe and Barry Munslow

Pub1

ished by

THE BEIJER INSTITUTE The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stockholm, Sweden

THE SCANDINAVIAN INSTITUTE OF AFRICAN STUDIES

Uppsal a , Sweden

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The s e r i e s "Energy, Environment and Development in Africa" i s pub- l i s h e d j o i n t l y by t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i - t u t e of African S t u d i e s , with f i n a n c i a l support from t h e Swedish I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Authority (SIDA). This book, t o g e t h e r with a s e r i e s of companion v01 umes, r e p o r t s on s t u d i e s of Energy and Development in t h e SADCC c o u n t r i e s j o i n t l y undertaken by t h e SADCC Energy Sector and t h e various member s t a t e s of SADCC i n collabora- t i o n with t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e .

ISSN

0281-8515 ISBN 91-7106-231-9

O

The B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e of African S t u d i e s 1984

Printed in Sweden by

Bohusl aningens AB, Uddeval l a 1984

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FOREWORD

T h i s Volume c o n t a i n s t h e second p a r t o f a s e r i e s o f n i n e e n e r g y c o u n t r y s t u d i e s , p r e p a r e d b y t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e as b a c k g r o u n d m a t e r i a l f o r t h e SADCC R e g i o n a l Energy Seminar i n H a r a r e , December 1982. I w o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k t h e g r o u p o f a u t h o r s m o s t w a r m l y f o r t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n s . T h e i r work w o u l d n o t h a v e been p o s s i b l e w i t h o u t t h e k i n d c o o p e r a t i o n o f many M i n i s t r i e s a n d a u t h o r i t i e s c o n c e r n e d w i t h e n e r g y i n t h e n i n e SADCC c o u n t r i e s .

I

am a l s o p l e a s e d t o t h a n k P r o f e s s o r P h i 1 O ' K e e f e a n d D r B a r r y Munslow f o r e d i t i n g t h i s Volume and my D e p u t y D i r e c t o r , D r L a r s K r i s t o f e r s o n , f o r h i s i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h e p r e p a r a t o r y work needed t h r o u g h o u t t h e SADCC E n e r g y P r o j e c t . F i n a l l y ,

I

g r a t e f u l l y a c k n o w l e d g e t h e f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t o f SIDA f o r t h e f i e l d w o r k , t h e Seminar a n d t h e p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s Volume.

Gordon T. Goodman

September 1984

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ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA SADCC COUNTRY STUDIES PART I 1

CONTENTS

FOREWORD LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES

INTRODUCTION

P h i 1 0'

Keefe

and Barry Munslow

2 . MOZAMBIQUE

Barry Munsl

ow

2. SWAZILAND

Barry Munsl ow 3, TANZANIA

K e i t h

Openshaw 4. ZAMBIA

Paul Susman 5. ZIMBABWE

Richard Hosier

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TABLES

Mozambique

Page

D i s t r i b u t i o n o f GDP

. . .

M a r k e t e d A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t i o n

. . .

R a t e Of Change I n Gross D o m e s t i c

P r o d u c t i o n

. . .

O p e r a t i n g B u d g e t 1977- 80

. . .

Bal ance Of Payments

. . .

Energy Demand By S e c t o r F o r 1980

. . .

End Use F u e l Consumption F o r 1980

. . .

Summary R e p o r t Of F u e l Consumption

. .

D e t a i l e d F i n a l Consumption f o r 2000 .

.

End-Use F u e l R e q u i r e m e n t s o f Fuelwood

.

Wood S u p p l y And Demand By P r o v i n c e

. .

Area o f N a t u r a l Woody V e g e t a t i o n

E s t i m a t e d A t The End Of 1980

. . .

Growing S t o c k E s t i m a t e

. . .

S t o c k O f Wood E s t i m a t e s

. . .

End-Use F u e l Requirements Of C h a r c o a l

.

End-Use F u e l R e q u i r e m e n t s O f

. . .

E l e c t r i c i t y

1978 R e f i n e r y P r o d u c t i o n F i g u r e s

. . .

Swazi l and

p-

M a i n Economic I n d i c a t o r s

. . .

Gross D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t By Economic A c t i v i t y F o r 1980

. . .

F u e l Consumption By S e c t o r

. . .

D e t a i l e d F i n a l Consumption Of Energy

F o r 1980

. . .

Energy Demand By S e c t o r

. . .

End-Use F u e l Consumption F o r 1980

. . .

End-Use F u e l Requirements : P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s

. . .

End-Use F u e l R e q u i r e m e n t s : Fuelwood

. .

N e t Resource Requirements

. . .

N a t i o n a l Summary Of End-Use F u e l

Consumption

. . .

Man-Made F o r e s t Area By S p e c i e s

. . . .

I n d u s t r i a1 Wood H a r v e s t i n g And Mi l l i ng

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R e p o r t

. . .

End-Use F u e l R e q u i r e m e n t s : I n d u s t r i a l

Wood

. . .

T r e e S p e c i e s Used By The R u r a l

. . .

P o p u l a t i o n F o r Fuelwood And P o l e s

. . .

E l e c t r i c a l G e n e r a t i o n End-Use F u e l R e q u i r e m e n t s :

E l e c t r i c i t y

. . .

T a n z a n i a

T a n z a n i a 1982: Land Area By V e g e t a t i o n

Type And Land Use

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption o f

Energy By Type And End-Use

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption Of Wood P r o d u c t s And A g r i c u l t u r a l

R e s i d u e s

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption Of

Biomass By End-User

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption O f

Biomass By End-Use

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Growing S t o c k And Y i e l d Of Above Ground Woody Biomass By V e g e t a t i o n Type

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Growing S t o c k And Y i e l d Of Above Ground Woody Biomass By R e g i o n T o g e t h e r W i t h R e g i o n a l

E s t i m a t e s Of Consumption

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Crop P r o d u c t i o n , Animal Numbers, Crop

R e s i d u e s And Dung P r o d u c t i o n

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Use O f Commerci a1 And Non-Commercial F u e l s By

. . .

S e c t o r

T a n z a n i a 1980- 2000: P r e s e n t Consumption O f Energy W i t h F o r e c a s t s To The Year 2000 By S e c t o r

. . .

T a n z a n i a 2000: F o r e c a s t Of Energy Consumption By Power Source W i t h An E s t i m a t e Of Energy S a v i n g

. . .

T a n z a n i a 2000: P o s s i b l e Demand F o r P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s And Source Of

S u p p l y

. . .

Appendix 3 . 1 T a n z a n i a 1980: A g g r e g a t e Energy

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A p p e n d i x 3 . 2

Appendi X 3.3A

A p p e n d i x 3 . 3 8

A p p e n d i x 3.4A

Appendi X 3 . 4 8

A p p e n d i x 3 . 5 A p p e n d i x 3.6A

Appendi X 3.6B

A p p e n d i x 3 . 7

A p p e n d i x 3 . 8

A p p e n d i x 3 . 9

A p p e n d i x 3 . 1 0

. . .

B a l a n c e

T a n z a n i a 1980: D e t a i l e d F i n a l Consumption By S e c t o r , End-Use And E n e r g y S o u r c e

. . .

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Power S o u r c e , G e n e r a t e d Energy,

D i s t r i b u t i o n Losses And S a l e s Of

. . .

E l e c t r i c i t y

T a n z a n i a : E s t i m a t e d Medium Term E l e c t r i c a l P o t e n t i a l From

. . . .

I n d i g e n o u s Power S o u r c e s T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption Of Woodfuel And A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s i d u e By

. . .

End- User

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption Of B i omass By Use

. . .

A c t i v i t y

T a n z a n i a 1980: V e g e t a t i o n Cover

. . .

By R e g i o n

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e Of T o t a l Above Ground Woody Biomass By V e g e t a t i o n Type And R e g i o n P l u s E s t i m a t e d Annual Y i e l d And 1980 Consumption Of Wood P r o d u c t s .

.

T a n z a n i a 1980: Area Of Cash Crop And F o r e s t P1 a n t a t i o n s By

. . .

R e g i o n

T a n z a n i a 2000: F o r e c a s t O f E n e r g y Consumption By S e c t o r And

Power Source

. . .

T a n z a n i a 2000: E s t i m a t e d S a v i n g Of E n e r g y By I n c r e a s e d

E f f i c i e n c y

. . .

T a n z a n i a 2000: P o s s i b l e Demand F o r P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s And

S o u r c e Of S u p p l y

. . .

T a n z a n i a 2000: P o s s i b l e

E l e c t r i c a l G e n e r a t i o n P a t t e r n

.

Zamb i a

4 . 1 Demographic/Economic I n d i c a t o r s

. . . .

4.2 Gross D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t By K i n d Of

Economic A c t i v i t y I n P r o d u c e r ' s V a l u e s A t C o n s t a n t 1970 P r i c e s

. . .

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P e r c e n t a g e Uses O f V a r i o u s E n e r g y

S o u r c e s By Zambian Households . .

. . .

142 H o u s e h o l d E x p e n d i t u r e (ZK) On H o u s e h o l d

E n e r g y Use And Average Income F o r

Month

.

. . . .

.

. . .

. . . .

. 143 E s t i m a t e s O f Annual Fuelwood

Consumption F o r H o u s e h o l d Use

. .

.

. .

145

E l e c t r i c a l G e n e r a t i o n

. . . . .

. .

. .

1 5 1 Coal Demand By S e c t o r s

. . . .

153

S o u r c e s And Uses O f O i l 1975/76

-

1980/81

. . . .

.

. . .

155 Zambia N a t i o n a l E n e r g y L i m i t e d . D e t a i l S

O f S p i k e d Crude O i l I m p o r t s .

. . . . .

156

I n d u s t r y S a l e s By M a r k e t C a t e g o r y

. . .

158

D o m e s t i c P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s M a r k e t

Consumption - 1980/81 .

.

. .

. .

. . . 159

D o m e s t i c P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t M a r k e t

Devel opment

. . . . .

.

. . . .

.

. . .

160

F u e l Consumption I n Mines

. .

. . .

. .

1 6 1 P e t r o l e u m F u e l s I n d u s t r y F o r e c a s t s . . 163 Summary R e p o r t O f F u e l Consumption I n

Zambia . . .

. .

. . .

.

.

. . .

. .

.

166 D e t a i l e d F u e l Consumption F o r 1980

. .

167 A g g r e g a t e E n e r g y B a l a n c e 1980-81

. . .

168

Zimbabwe

P o p u l a t i o n E s t i m a t e s - December 31,

1981

. . . .

. .

. .

. .

.

. .

.

. . . 174

GDP A t F a c t o r C o s t By I n d u s t r y O f

O r i g i n

. .

.

. .

.

. . . .

176

A v e r a g e Compound Growth R a t e s F o r

1965-1970, 1970-1975, 1975- 1980

. . . .

177

E n e r g y Consumption F o r Zimbabwe 1980

.

179 R u r a l E n e r g y S u r v e y : Average F u e l

Consumption F o r Households U s i n g F u e l . 182 Urban E n e r g y S u r v e y : Average F u e l

Consumption F o r Households U s i n g F u e l . 184 A g r i c u l t u r a ! S e c t o r S t a t i s t i c s

. .

.

.

1 9 1 C a l c u l a t i o n O f Changes I n V e g e t a t i o n

Cover Types

. . . .

.

. . .

194

Land C l a s s i f i c a t i o n O f I n d i g e n o u s

Wood? ands, E x c l u d i rig Commerci a1 Farms . 195 E s t i m a t e d P r o d u c t i o n O f I n d i g e n o u s

Woodlands I n Communal Areas

. . . .

197 Coal R e s o u r c e s And Reserves .

. . .

. . 198

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5.12 Coal P r o d u c t i o n : 1980

.

.

.

.

. . . . .

200 5.13 Coal E x p o r t s : 1980

. . . .

. 201

5.14 I m p o r t a t i o n Of P e t r o l e u m F u e l s 1980

.

. 203 5.15 E l e c t r i c a l G e n e r a t i o n C a p a c i t y 1980

.

. 205

5.16 E l e c t r i c i t y S u p p l y 1980

. . . .

. 2 06 5.17 P1 anned New E l e c t r i c a l I n s t a l l a t i o n s

.

207 Appendix 5 . 1

Appendix 5.2 Appendix 5 . 3 Appendix 5.4 Appendix 5.5 Appendix 5.6 Appendix 5 . 7 Appendix 5 . 8

P o p u l a t i o n : December 31, 1980

.

212 Economic Measures 1980 .

.

.

.

. 2 13

E l e c t r i c G e n e r a t i o n C a p a c i t y .

.

214

E l e c t r i c i t y S u p p l y : 1980 .

. . .

215 C o n t r o l T o t a l s

-

P r i m a r y F u e l s

.

216

C o n v e r s i o n F a c t o r s Used

. . . .

2 17 T o t a l F u e l Consumption

. . .

.

.

218

End-Use S p e c i f i c a t i o n s

. . . . .

219

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FIGURES

Page 1.1 F u e l w o o d S i t u a t i o n I n Mozambique By

P r o v i n c e

. . .

2 7 1 . 2 C o a l , O i ! and Gas D e p o s i t s I n

Mozambique

. . .

3 6

1 . 3 T r a n s m i s s i o n L i n e s I n Mozambique:

1985

. . . 3 7

2 . 1 S w a z i l a n d : T i m b e r And E c o l o g y

. . .

63 4 . 1 Zambia: Areas O f Chitemane

A g r i c u l t u r e

. . .

1 4 8

. . .

4 . 2 Zambia: Miombo Wood1 and 1 4 9

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INTRODUCTION

Energy p r o v i s i o n i s v i t a l t o e v e r y d e v e l opment e f f o r t ; w i t h o u t i t t h e r e c a n he no i n c r e a s e d i n d u s t r i a l o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n , and n o i m p r o v e m e n t i n t h e b a s i c l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . An awareness o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f s t u d y i n g e n e r g y as a v i t a l p a r t o f t h e developrnent p r o c e s s emerged u n d e r t h e d u a l i m p e t u s o f t h e o i l p r i c e r i s e s o f t h e e a r l y 1970s and t h e g r o w i n g s h o r t a g e b e i n g e x p e r i e n c e d o f t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l S upon w h i c h r u r a l p r o d u c e r s h a v e r e l i e d i n many a r e a s . B o t h c o n c e r n s p r o v i d e t h e e s s e n t i a l themes r u n n i n g t h r o u g h t h i s w o r k . These two volumes f u r n i s h an i n - d e p t h a n a l y s i s and o v e r v i e w o f e a c h o f t h e n i n e c o u n t r i e s w h i c h t o g e t h e r c o m p r i s e t h e S o u t h e r n A f r i c a n Development C o o r d i n a t i o n C o n f e r e n c e . The r e s e a r c h was c a r r i e d o u t u n d e r t h e a u s p i c e s o f t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e o f t h e Royal Swedish Academy o f S c i e n c e s a t t h e r e q u e s t o f t h e SADCC c o u n t r i e s i n 1982.

These c o u n t r y c a s e s t u d i e s p r o v i d e d t h e b a c k g r o u n d d a t a f o r t h e summary volume b e i n g p u b l i s h e d i n p a r a l l e l e n t i t l e d SADCC: Energy and Pevelopment t o t h e Year 2000, w h i c h draws t o g e t h e r a l l o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r y d a t a t o p r o d u c e an a g g r e g a t e r e g i o n a l e n e r g y p i c t u r e and makes p r o j e c t i o n s t o t h e y e a r 2000. W h i l s t t h e c o u n t r y c a s e s t u d i e s a r e v a l u a b l e i n t h e i r own r i g h t , s e e k i n g as t h e y do t o p r o v i d e a breakdown o f e n e r g y u s e i n e a c h economy, t h e r e a d e r i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e r e g i o n a l p i c t u r e i s r e f e r r e d t o t h e accompanying summary v o l u m e . ( i )

What u n i f i e s t h e a p p r o a c h o f t h e a u t h o r s o f t h e s e i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r y s t u d i e s i s a common m e t h o d o l o g y o f e s t a b l i s h i n g n a t i o n a l e n e r g y b a l a n c e s f r o m a demand p e r s p e c t i v e . T h i s emphasis on an end- use a p p r o a c h t o e n e r g y i s an i m p o r t a n t one.

N a t i o n a l e n e r g y a c c o u n t s a r e f r e q u e n t l y b u i l t on a h i g h l y a g g r e g a t e d b a s i s . They a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r m a j o r s o u r c e s o f c o m m e r c i a l f u e l S , h y d r o c a r b o n s and e l e c t r i c i t y , b u t t h e o r i e n t a t i o n i s t o w a r d s s u p p l y i s s u e s . S i n c e t h e m a j o r i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r p l a n n i n g , a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , p r o d u c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n have been e s t a b l i s h e d f o r many y e a r s and a r e c r i t i c a l l y f o c u s e d on s u p p l y i s s u e s , t h i s s i t u a t i o n i s n o t u n e x p e c t e d . I f , however, d a t a f r o m t h e s e i n s t i t u t i o n s i s u t i l i s e d t o b u i l d e n e r g y a c c o u n t s , t w o m a j o r p r o b l e m s emerge, F i r s t , i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o a s s e s s t h e demand f o r c o m m e r c i a l f u e l s b y end- use and, c o n s e q u e n t 1 y , i t i s irnpossi b l e t o d e s i g n c o n s e r v a t i o n i n i t i a t i v e s . Second1 y, because m a j o r i n s t i t u t i o n s o n l y d e a l w i t h c o m m e r c i a l f u e l s , t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r w h i c h d o m i n a t e s t h e e n e r g y economies o f A f r i c a i s l e f t u n r e c o r d e d . I n o r d e r t o a v o i d t h e o b v i o u s prob!ems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o n v e n t i o n a l s u p p l y a n a l y s i s , e a c h r e s e a r c h e r was r e q u e s t e d t o a d o p t a demand a p p r o a c h t o t h e p r o b l e m o f e n e r g y a c c o u n t i n g .

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T h i s demand a p p r o a c h c l e a r l y d e m o n s t r a t e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n t h e o v e r a l l e n e r g y b a l a n c e . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r o f r u r a l h o u s e h o l d demand domi n a t e s t h e e n e r g y a c c o u n t s f r e q u e n t 1 y d w a r f i n g t h e t o t a l c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r . The emphasis on r u r a l h o u s e h o l d demand s e r v e s t h r e e u s e f u l f u n c t i o n s n a m e l y :

1. I t a l l o w s p r o j e c t i o n s o f f u t u r e e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n t o be p r o j e c t e d f r o m a demographic base o f h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n p l u c k i n g some a r b i t r a r y economic i n d i c a t o r o u t o f c o n t e x t :

2 . I t f o c u s e s a t t e n t i o n on t h e b i o l o g i c a l r e s o u r c e s o f a c o u n t r y w h i c h , g i v e n t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f a g r i c u l t u r e t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g y o f SADCC member s t a t e s , i s t h e c r u c i a l a r e a f o r d e v e l o p m e n t i n i t i a t i v e s :

3 . I t p1 aces a p p r o p r i a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e c r i t i c a l r o l e o f women i n o b t a i n i n g f u e l , and o t h e r b a s i c needs, i n m a i n t a i n i n g t h e p r o d u c t i o n and r e p r o d u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s o f p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d s . As such, i t i s a c o m p l e m e n t a r y a n a l y s i s t h a t m u s t be p l a c e d a l o n g s i d e s u p p l y d a t a .

A f o u r t h volume has a l s o emerged o u t o f t h e r e s e a r c h . ( 2 ) T h i s was p r o d u c e d b y a q r o u p w o r k i n q u n d e r P r o f e s s o r R i c h a r d Peet, and i s e n t i t l e d ~ a n u f a c t u r i n ~ ~ n d u s t r y and Economic Development i n t h e SADCC C o u n t r i e s .

P h i l O ' K e e f e and B a r r y Munslow

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REFERENCES

1 . C. Simoes (Ed), SADCC: Energy and Development t o t h e Year

2000,

i n Energy,

3

SADCC Energy S e c t o r , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e B e i j e r I n s t - i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s 1984.

2. R. Peet, M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y and Economic Development i n t h e SADCC C o u n t r i e s , i n t n e r g y , Environment and Development i n A f r i c a Vo1.5. SADCC Energy S e c t o r , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , 1984.

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C H A P T E R 1

M O Z A M B I Q U E

5 Y

B a r r y

M u n s l

o w

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INTRODUCTION

E n e r g y p l a y s a v i t a l r o l e i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s , s u p p l y i n g p e o p l e ' s needs and f u e l l i n g t h e g r o w t h o f t h e economy. I n t h e b a t t l e a g a i n s t u n d e r d e v e l o p m e n t , e n e r g y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s m u s t have a h i g h p r i o r i t y and t h e r e f o r e f i g u r e p r o m i n e n t l y i n t h e n a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g e f f o r t . The p u r p o s e o f t h i s c h a p t e r , and i n d e e d o f t h e volumes as a w h o l e , i s t o make a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h i s end. E v e r y t y p e o f economic a c t i v i t y uses e n e r g y and i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o know t h e end- use r e q u i r e m e n t s o f e v e r y s e c t o r i n t h e economy, n o t o n l y t o a r r i v e a t a c o n c l u s i o n c o n c e r n i n g how much t o t a l e n e r g y i s needed, b u t a l s o t o e n s u r e t h a t g r o w t h and d e v e l o p m e n t i n e a c h s e c t o r w i l l n o t b e h i n d e r e d b y a s h o r t a g e o f t h e n e c e s s a r y e n e r g y i n p u t s .

We b e g i n b y p r o v i d i n g a b r i e f o v e r v i e w o f t h e economy and p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h as t h e s e w i l l i n e v i t a b 1 y b e i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s o f f u t u r e e n e r g y needs. T h i s w i l l p r o v i d e a b a c k g r o u n d f o r t h e s u b s e q u e n t a n a l y s i s . T h e r e t h e n f o l l o w s a s e c t i o n on t h e e x i s t i n g demand f o r e n e r g y i n t h e economy.

G u a r a n t e e i n g t h e b a s i c e n e r g y needs o f t h e p e o p l e and e v e r y s e c t o r o f t h e economy i s a f u n d a m e n t a l a i m o f t h e government.

I n a t h i r d s e c t i o n we go on t o a n a l y s e e n e r g y s u p p l y and see w h a t t h e p a t t e r n o f f u t u r e e n e r g y s u p p l i e s m i g h t b e .

I n a f o u r t h and f i n a l s e c t i o n we w i l l draw some c o n c l u s i o n s and make some recommendations, s u g g e s t i n g c e r t a i n s t e p s w h i c h m i g h t c o n c r e t e l y be t a k e n t o m e e t t h e n a t i o n a l and a l s o r e g i o n a l needs f o r e n e r g y p o l i c y .

THE ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

The P e o p l e ' s Republ i c o f Mozambique has a l and a r e a o f 799,380 s q u a r e kms and s h a r e s a common f r o n t i e r w i t h f i v e SADCC member s t a t e s , T a n z a n i a , M a l a w i , Zambia, Zimbabwe and S w a z i l and, i n a d d i t i o n t o h a v i q g S o u t h A f r i c a on t h e s o u t h e r n m o s t b o r d e r . I t had a p o p u l a t i o n o f 1 2 . 1 3 m i l l i o n i n 1980, g r o w i n g a t 2 . 8 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y , and 8 7 . 8 p e r c e n t o f t h e p e o p l e s t i l l l i v e i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s .

A g r i c u l t u r a l l y t h e c o u n t r y has g r e a t p o t e n t i a l w i t h e l e v e n m a j o r r i v e r s f l o w i n g w e s t t o e a s t and w i t h l e s s t h a n a t h i r d o f t h e c u l t i v a b l e l a n d p r e s e n t l y i n use. Huge h y d r o - p o w e r r e s o u r c e s a r e a v a i l a b l e a l o n g w i t h a r e 1 a t i v e l y u n t a p p e d m i n e r a l p o t e n t i a l . Coal i s a l r e a d y b e i n g mined, l a r g e r e s e r v e s o f gas e x i s t and o i l p r o s p e c t i n g was renewed i n 1 9 8 1 p r o d u c i n g some e n c o u r a g i n g e a r l y s i g n s i n t h e n o r t h w e s t e r n p a r t o f t h e c o u n t r y . Mozambique possesses 2,470 k i l o m e t r e s o f c o a s t l i n e and t h e f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y w i l l u n d o u b t e d l y p1 ay a c o n s i d e r a b l e r o l e i n f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t .

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The c o ~ l n ' c r y o n l y became i n d e p e n d e n t i n 1975 a f t e r e x p e r i e n c i n g a l m o s t a c e n t u r y o f P o r t u g u e s e c o l o n i a1 r u l e , c h a r a c t e r i s e d b y e x t r e m e l a b o u r e x p l o i t a t i o n and p o l i t i c a l r e p r e s s i o n . The e c o n o m i c a l l y b a c k w a r d n a t u r e o f t h e c o l o n i a l power and t h e g r o w i n g s t r e n g t h o f S o u t h A f r i c a a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e r e g ~ o n a l s u b - s y s t e m were t h e d o m i n a n t i n f l u e n c e s s h a p i n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f Mozambique's economy, p r o d u c i n g m a s s i v e d i s t o r t i o n s . Economical l y t h e c o u n t r y f e l l i n t o t h r e e c l e a r l y d e f i n e d zones, i n t h e n o r t h p e a s a n t c a s h c r o p p r o d u c t i o n , i n t h e c e n t r e p l a n t a t i o n p r o d u c t i o n , b o t h g e a r e d t o t h e e x p o r t m a r k e t , and t h e s o u t h was a r e s e r v e army o f l a b o u r f o r t h e S o u t h A f r i c a n m i n e s . I n one sense t h e economy was a l r e a d y g e a r e d t o w a r d s r e g i o n a l r n t e g r a t i o n , p r o v i d i n g as i t does, r a i l w a y and p o r t f a c i l i t i e s f o r t h e i n t e r ~ o r c o u n t r i e s , and t h e a i m o f t h e SADCC i s t o r e o r i e n t a t e t h a t i n t e g r a t i o n t o l e s s e n dependence on S o u t h A f r i c a and i n c r e a s e t h e l i n k s w i t h o t h e r s t a t e s o f t h e r e g i o n .

Because o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l l e g a c y o f Mozambique's dependence on S o u t h A f r i c a , p r o v i d i n g m i g r a n t l a b o u r t o t h e m ~ n e s , t r a n s i t passage t o t h e T r a n s v a a l , t o u r i s t r e s o r t s , h y d r o - e l e c t r i c e n e r g y f r o m Cahora Bassa* dam and m a r k e t s f o r S o u t h A f r i c a ' s e x p o r t s - Mozambique's own e f f o r t s t o s l o w l y l e s s e n i t s r e l i a n c e on t h e s e economic t i e s c a n b e g r e a t l y a i d e d b y r e g i o n a l and o u t s i d e s u p p o r t . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e c o u n t r y i s n o t so enmeshed w i t h S o u t h A f r i c a t h a t i t i s u n a b l e t o s e r ~ o u s l y a c h i e v e t h i s l e s s e n i n g o f dependence - i t i s a v i a b l e p r o p o s i t i o n t h e r e f o r e .

When a n a l y s i n g t h e economy i n d e t a i l , t h e r e i s t h e p r o b l e m o f a s h o r t a g e o f d o c u m e n t a t i o n and a 1 ack o f c o m p r e h e n s i v e and u p - t o - d a t e s t a t i s t i c s . From t h e d a t a a v a i l a b l e however ( w h i c h s h o u l d b e t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n b e i n g c o m p i l e d f r o m a v a r 7 e t y o f d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s ) , some t r e n d s do become a p p a r e n t as shown i n ,

T a b l e 1.1. A g r i c u l t u r e and s e r v i c e s a c c o u n t f o r t h e v a s t b u l k o f t h e Gross D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t .

Between 1974 and 1977 t h e economy i n g e n e r a l and i n d u s t r y i n p a r t i c u l a r w e n t t h r o u g h a c r i s i s p e r i o d , b u t f r o m 1977 i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n began t o p i c k u p once a g a i n , and b y 1980 had a l m o s t d o u b l e d i t s s h a r e o f GDP ( a t 1 0 p e r c e n t ) compared w i t h t h e p o s i t i o n i n 1977. A g r ~ c u l t u r e r e m a i n s o f v i t a l i m p o r t a n c e , as i t i n v o l v e s a l m o s t 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n and p r o d u c e s t h e bl;!k o f e x p o r t s . The m o s t r e c e n t f i g u r e s f o r m a r k e t e d p r o d u c t i o n have been e n c o u r a g i n g b u t t h e r e i s c l e a r 1 y a l o n g way s t i l l t o go b e f o r e r e c o v e r y i s c o m p l e t e and t h e economy moves ahead ( s e e P r o b ems on t h e s t a t e f a r m complex i n Gaza a c c o u n t e d f o r t h e d i s a s t r o u s r i c e h a r v e s t i n 1981. A c o m b i n a t i o n o f f a c t o r s , i n c l u d i n g d r o u g h t , l e d t o an o v e r a l l d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n i n 1 9 8 2 / 3 . The p e a s a n t s e c t o r i s s t i l l n o t m a r k e t i n g i t s p o t e n t i a l , g i v e n a l a c k o f goods t o p u r c h a s e , some u n c e r t a i n t y o v e r p r i c i n g p o l i c y , and a s e r i e s o f d r o u g h t s and f l o o d s a f f e c t i n g t h e c o u n t r y e v e r y y e a r s i r c e i n d e p e n d e n c e .

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.

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TABLE 1.1

D i s t r i b u t i o n

Of

GDP

er

c e n t )

Year A g r i c u l t u r e l n d u s t r y S e r v i c e s

Sotirce: Compi

1

e d f r o m t h e UNCTAD Handbook

arc?

.-p Worl d Devel o p n e n t R e p o r t s f o r t h e r e l e v a n t y e a r s .

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TABLE 1 . 2

M a r k e t e d A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t i o n ( i n ' 0 0 0 t o n s )

P r o d u c t 1980 1981

C o t t o n M a i z e Copra Tea PO t a to e s Beans

C i t r u s F r u i t V e g e t a b l e s R i c e

S o u r c e : D i r e c c a o N a c i o n a l de P1 ano, 1 9 8 2 .

No a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s e x i s t c o n c e r n i n g s u b s i s t e n c e p r o d u c t i o n . T h i s undoubted1 y i n c r e a s e d i n t h e immediate p o s t - i n d e p e n d e n c e p e r i o d as c o m m e r c i a l i s a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n n e t w o r k s c o l l a p s e d , hence more was consumed and l e s s was m a r k e t e d . However b y t h e e a r l y 19805, i n some a r e a s , bad d r o u g h t and a l a c k o f a g r i c u l t u r a l i n p u t s p l u s d i s r u p t i o n s caused b y S o u t h A f r i c a n b a c k e d r e b e l bands had c r e a t e d hunger i n c e r t a i n r u r a l a r e a s hence p e a s a n t s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y was a t r i s k .

I n 1973 t h e Gross N a t i o n a l P r o d u c t was e s t i m a t e d t o be US

$2,900 m i l l i o n o r $330 p e r c a p i t a . D u r i n g t h e c r i s i s p e r i o d , w i t h t h e mass exodus o f s e t t l e r s and w i d e s p r e a d economic sabotage, GDP f e l l d r a m a t i c a l l y , b u t t h e n began t o p i c k up a g a i n as T a b l e 1 . 3 shows.

Over t h e decade o f t h e 1970s, i n f l a t i o n r a n a t a b o u t 1 1 p e r c e n t p e r annum. B u t a f t e r i n d e p e n d e n c e t h e F r e l i m o government made e v e r y e f f o r t t o keep down t h e p r i c e o f b a s i c c o m m o d i t i e s t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e g o v e r n m e n t p r o v i d e d f r e e n a t i o n a l i sed e d u c a t i o n and h e a l t h s e r v i c e s . income i n e q u a l i t y was c e r t a i n l y d i m i n i s h e d and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s o c i a l s e r v i c e s t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n i m p r o v e d a t an i m p r e s s i v e l e v e l ( f o r e d u c a t i o n and h e a l t h s e r v i c e e x p e n d i t u r e see T a b l e 1 . 4 ) . As T a b l e 1 . 4 shows, g o v e r n m e n t e x p e n d i t u r e i n t o t a l d o u b l e d between 1977 and 1981.

The P e o p l e ' s R e p u b l i c o f Mozambique has l a i d down t h e g u i d e l i n e s f o r i t s d e v e l o p m e n t t o 1990 i n t h e I n d i c a t i v e P e r s p e c t i v e P l a n . T h i s has s e t as i t s a m b i t i o u s t a r g e t t h e d e f e a t o f u n d e r d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e 1980s. M o s t o f t h e a v a i l a b l e i n v e s t m e n t ( 8 5 p e r c e n t ) w i l l be c h a n n e l l e d i n t o t h e f o l l o w i n g programmes:

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1. t r a n s f o r m i n g t h e r u r a l a r e a s , w i t h t h e f o r m a t i o n c f c c - o p e r a t i v e s and communal v i l l a g e s ;

2 . c r e a t i n g a heavy i n d u s t r i a l base;

3 . d e v e l o p i n g arid e x p a n d i n g t h e n a t i o n a i i s e d f a r m i n g s e c t o r ; 4 . h a v i nc an a c c e l e r a t e d marpower and e d u c a t i o n a l programme.

The f i r s t phase o f t h e p l a n alms t o m a x i m i s e c r o p p r o d u c t i o n f o r e x p o r t ; r e d u c e i m p o r t s , e s p e c i a l l y o f f o o d p r o d u c t s ; e n c o u r a g e p r o s p e c t i n g t o p r o v i d e raw m a t e r i a l s f o r h e a v y i n d u s t r y and e x p o r t s ; m i n i m i z e t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f l i q u i d f u e l s ; g u a r a n t e e t h a t a nurrber o f s p e c i f f e d a g r i c u l t u r a l

,

i n d u s t r i a l , c o n s t r u c t i o n and t r a n s p o r t p r o j e c t s a r e c o m p l e t e d ; and move ahead w i t h t h e f o r m a t i o n o f s k i l l e d t e c h r i c a l and p r o f e s s i o n a l w o r k e r s . I n t h e

. -

e n e r g y f i e l d , gas, o i ; , c o a l and e l e c t r i c i t y p r o j e c t s a l l have a h i g h p r i o r i t y a l o n g w i t h m i n e r a l e x p l o r a t i o n t o s e r v e t h e needs o f heavy i n d u s t r y . Two g i a n t p r o j e c t s a r e e n v i s a g e d : one, t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f an i r o n and s t e e l i n d u s t r y ; and two, an a l u m i n i u m s m e l t e r , p o s s i b l y u s i n g e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m t h e Cahora Bassa dam.

The p l a n has l a i d o u t t h e b r o a d d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a -t e g y and i t s success depends upon how w e l l t h e i n h e r i t e d p r o b l e m s and o n - g o i n g d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e t a c k l e d . W h i l s t p o s s e s s i n g enormous p o t e n t i a l i n a g r i c u l t u r e , m i n e r a l s and f i s h i n g , t h e c o u n t r y ' s economy has s u f f e r e d g r e a t l y f r o m t h e d e f o r m a t i o n s e n g e n d e r e d b y t h e c o l o n t a l e r a . An a n t i - e d u c a t i o n a l programme f o r A f r i c a n s and a s t r i c t r a c i a l d ~ v i s i o n o f l a b o u r l e f t a l e g a c y o f i l l i t e r a c y and a p a u c i t y o f s k i l l e d m a n a g e r i a l and s c i e r ~ t i f i c p e r s o n n e l f o l ! o w i n g t h e exodus o f s e t t l e r s a t t h e t i m e o f i n d e p e n d e n c e . The f i r s t m a j o r c o n s t r a i n t , t h e r e f o r e , i s t h i s s e r i o u s b o t t l e n e c k c a u s e d b y

t h e l a c k o f s k i l l e d p e r s o n n e l .

1-he economy n e v e r o r o d l i c e d a l a r g e i n t e r n a l s u r p l u s f r o m p r o d u c t i o n , r e l y i n g on t h e e x p o r t o f l a b o u r , t r a n s i t f e e s and t o u r i s t r e v e n u e s t o make up t h e d e f i c f t on i t s v i s i b l e t r a d e b a l a n c e . I n d u s t r y was g e a r e d t o w a r d s p r i m a r y p r o c e s s i n g and t h e p r o d d c t i o n o f l u x d r y goods F o r t h e s e t t l e r m a r k e t . The p r o c e s s o f r e s t r u c t u r i n g t h e economy i s b e i n g s l o w e d down b y t h i s l a c k o f an i n t e r n a l l y g e n e r a t e d s u r p l u s and t h e r e i s a c o n t i n u i n g b a l a n c e o f payments d e f i c i t . blence a f u r t h e r s e r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t i s t o f i n d t h e v e r y h i g h l e v e l s o f i n v e s . t n ~ e n t ~ e c e s s a r y t o a t t a i n t h e t a r g e t s s e t b y t h e Ten- Year ?!an.

The c o u n t r y ' s m o s t i m p o r t a n t e x p o r t s a r e cashew n u t s , c r u s t a , c e a n s , s u g a r and i t s b y - p r o d u c t s , t e a and c o t t o n . K i s t o r i c a l l y , i n v i s i b l e e a r r i i n g s f r o m m i g r a n t l a b o u r r e m i t t a n c e s and f e e s f o r t r a n s i t t r a f f i c have made u p t h e t r a d e d e f i c i t . Tbie s i t u a t i o n changed d r a m a t i c a l l y a f t e r 1377 when S o u t h A f r i c a s e v e r s l y r e d u c e d i t s tlozarli:ican l a b o u r q u o t a f o r t h e m i n e s and p a i d t h e Mozambican g o v e r n m e n t i n g o l d v a l u e d a t t h e f r e e m a r k e t r a t e . E a r l i e r i t was p a i d i n g a l d v a l u e d a t t h e mgch l o v e r

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o f f i c i a l r a t e w h i c h e n a b l e d t h e Mozambican g o v e r n m e n t t o s e l l t h e g o l d on t h e f r e e m a r k e t and t h e r e b y g a i n s u b s t a n t i a l l y . The c l o s u r e o f t h e Zimbabwe b o r d e r f r o m 1976 t o t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1980, i n compl i a n c e w i t h U n i t e d N a t i o n s s a n c t i o n s p01 i c y , a l s o had a s e r i o u s e f f e c t on r e d u c i n g f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s . The d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n g e n e r a l l y and w o r s e n i n g t e r m s o f t r a d e a l l c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e s e v e r e l i q u i d i t y p r e s s u r e s . A c c o r d i n g t o UN f i g u r e s , t o t a l f o r e i g n d e b t was US $244 m i l l i o n a t t h e end o f 1978.

From 1978 onwards, t h e b a l a n c e o f payments s i t u a t i o n has grown more d i f f i c u l t . The m o s t r e c e n t f i g u r e s i l l u s t r a t e t h i s ( s e e T a b l e 1 . 5 ) . Even p r i o r t o independence, e v e r y y e a r saw a s t e a d i l y d e t e r i o r a t i n g b a l a n c e o f payments d e f i c i t so t h i s has a l s o been t h e l o n g t e r m t r e n d .

TABLE 1 . 5

B a l a n c e O f Payments (US $ )

T o t a l E x p o r t s 338 385

T o t a l I m p o r t s 663 737

D e f i c i t 325 353

B a l ance o f payments d e f i c i t s have e s s e n t i a1 l y been compensated b y a i d i n f l o w s i n r e c e n t y e a r s , w i t h a l a r g e c o n t r i b u t i o n coming f r o m t h e S c a n d i n a v i a n c o u n t r i e s (US $61 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 8 0 ) . A t p r e s e n t t h e c o u n t r y ' s i m p o r t s a r e t w i c e t h e v a l u e o f i t s e x p o r t s and f o r e i g n exchange r e s e r v e s have t h e r e f o r e been h a r d p r e s s e d . Raw m a t e r i a l i m p o r t s , i n p a r t i c u l a r o i l , a c c o u n t f o r a l m o s t h a l f t h e i m p o r t b i l l . I m p o r t s o f c r u d e o i l a l o n e , i n 1979, a c c o u n t e d f o r 40 p e r c e n t o f a l l e x p o r t e a r n i n g s . By 1 9 8 1 o i l was c o s t i n g Mozambique e i g h t e e n t i m e s w h a t i t had i n 1973, t h e f i n a l y e a r b e f o r e i n d e p e n d e n c e . T h e r e a r e p o s i t i v e s i g n s t h a t e x p o r t s w i l l p i c k u p a g a i n , however, w i t h t h e v a l u e o f c r u s t a c e a n e x p o r t s , f o r example, v i r t u a l l y d o u b l i n g f r o m 32 t o 58 m i l l i o n US d o l l a r s f r o m 1980 t o 1981. The f o r e i g n exchange f r o m a i d w i l l h e l p f i n a n c e t h e n e c e s s a r y i m p o r t s so t h a t t h e maximum u t i l i s a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y can o c c u r . I n t h e r e c e n t p a s t , b o t t l e n e c k s i n p r o d u c t i o n have o c c u r r e d because o f t h e t i g h t n e s s o f f o r e i g n exchange t o b u y e s s e n t i a l p a r t s and raw m a t e r i a l s . A g r e a t d e a l depends on t h e s u c c e s s o f t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p o l i c y w h i c h c o u l d f a c i l i t a t e a b i g r e d u c t i o n i n f o o d i m p o r t s and promote a g r i c u l t u r a l e x p o r t s . S i g n s o f a c h a n g i n g emphasis w i t h i n a g r i c u l t u r e , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e renewed s u p p o r t f o r t h e

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c o - o p e r a t i v e and f a m i l y s e c t o r s , c o u l d h e r a l d m a j o r improvements i n t h i s a r e a . A p e r i o d o f c o n s o l i d a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n e x p a n s i o n i n t h e s t a t e f a r m s e c t o r s h o u l d i m p r o v e p r o d u c t i v i t y p e r h e c t a r e . The g o v e r n m e n t ' s f i r m commi t m e n t t o a p01 i c y o f s e l f - r e 1 ia n c e p r o v i d e s e n c o u r a g i n g s i g n s f o r f u t u r e g r o w t h i n t h e economy.

H a v i n g examined t h e economic b a c k d r o p we now t u r n t o a n a l y s e t h e e n e r g y s e c t o r i n d e t a i l

.

ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR

We b e g i n b y f o c u s i n g on e x i s t i n g e n e r g y demand b y s e c t o r , e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e base c a s e f o r t h e y e a r 1980; t h e n we d e m o n s t r a t e how t h i s demand wil.1 grow t o t h e y e a r 2000 on a b u s i n e s s - a s - u s u a l b a s i s assuming n o g o v e r n m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n . By e s t a b l i s h i n g e x i s t i n g demand we i s o l a t e t h e q u a n t i t y o f e n e r g y r e q u i r e d t o g u a r a n t e e t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n o f t h e economy and d o m e s t i c s p h e r e s . As we see f r o m T a b l e 1.6, d o m e s t i c c o n s u m p t i o n a c c o u n t s f o r 7 6 . 4 p e r c e n t o f Mozambique's t o t a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n . I n d u s t r y i s b y f a r t h e second m o s t i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r f o l l o w e d b y t r a n s p o r t , and f i n a l l y a g r i c u l t u r e and c o m m e r c i a l / i n s t i t u t i o n a l w h i c h e a c h a c c o u n t f o r a b o u t t h e same s h a r e .

I f we go on t o examine c o n s u m p t i o n b y f u e l s o u r c e , t h e n a g a i n , one c a t e g o r y i s o v e r w h e l m i n g l y d o m i n a n t

-

wood. T h i s a c c o u n t e d f o r more t h a n t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f t o t a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n 1980. N e a r l y a l l o f t h e f u e l w o o d i s consumed i n t h e r u r a l h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r and t h i s s e c t o r a l s o consumes t h e second m o s t i m p o r t a n t f u e l s o u r c e used, dung and c r o p r e s i d u e . I n d u s t r y and t h e u r b a n h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r consume m o s t o f t h e t h i r d m o s t i m p o r t a n c e f u e l s o u r c e , c h a r c o a l . N e x t comes v a r i o u s o i l p r o d u c t s , c o a l and e l e c t r i c i t y , u s e d m a i n l y i n i n d u s t r y , a g r i c u l t u r e , t r a n s p o r t and commerce.

H a v i n g seen t h e o v e r a l l p a t t e r n t h e r e f o l l o w s a d i s c u s s i o n o f c o n s u m p t i o n b y s e c t o r . T h i s w i l l f o c u s on e x i s t i n g end- use p a t t e r n s as w e l l as f u t u r e p r o j e c t i o n s .

D o m e s t i c E n e r g y Consumption

I t i s c l e a r f r o m t h e n a t i o n a l e n e r g y b a l a n c e t h a t d o m e s t i c e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n has t h e b i g g e s t s h a r e o f t o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n , see T a b l e 8 f o r t h e d e t a i l e d breakdown. T h i s , i n d e e d , s h o u l d n o t be s u r p r i s i n g , g i v e n t h e b a s i c need f o r p e o p l e t o e a t cooked f o o d , k e e p warm on w i n t e r n i g h t s and g i v e n t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f h e a t i n g w a t e r f o r c l e a n l i n e s s and h y g i e n e . A l l t h e s e b a s i c needs t h a t p e o p l e s h a r e r e q u i r e e n e r g y i n t h e h o u s e h o l d . G u a r a n t e e i n g t h e s u p p l y o f e n e r g y t o t h e p e o p l e m u s t t h e r e f o r e r a n k as a h i g h p r i o r i t y f o r g o v e r n m e n t p l a n n e r s . I n t h e p a s t , t o o l i t t l e t h o u g h t was g i v e n t o t h i s a r e a because i t was one t h a t d i d n o t appear on any c o m m e r c i a l b a l a n c e s h e e t . A l s o , i n t h e m a j o r i t y o f cases

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T A B L E 1 . 6 Energy Demand By S e c t o r For

--

( p e r c e n t a g e s h a r e s 1

P e r c e n t a g e

Urban Household Rural Household Agri cul t u r e

Indus t r y

Commercial / I n s t i t u t i o n a l T r a n s p o r t

Total 100.0

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TABLE

1 . 7

Er~d Use Fuel Consumption For 1980 ( ~ e r c e n t a a e s h a r e s )

P e r c e n t a g e

Woodfuel 7 7 . 0

Charcoal 4 . 7

Dung/Resi due 6 . 4

I n d u s t r i a ! Wood 1 . 1

Gasol i ne 0 . 6

Kerosene 0 . 7

Diesel 2 . 0

A v i a t i o n Fuel 0 . 3

Residual Oil 4 . 2

E l e c t r i c i t y 0 . 9

Coal 2 . 1

Natural Gas 0 . 0

LPG 0 . 1

Refined Oil 0 . 0

Total 1 0 0 . 0

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f u e l w o o d was r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e hence t h e p r o b l e m was n o t as a c u t e as i t i s now. B u t p e r h a p s t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r h i d i n g t h e i s s u e f r o m p u b l i c v i e w was t h a t i t was t h e women whose j o b i t was t o g u a r a n t e e t h e r u r a l d o m e s t i c e n e r g y s u p p l y . I t was j u s t one more o f t h e ' i n v i s i b l e ' t a s k s o f d o m e s t i c l a b o u r w i t h w h i c h many d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s d i d n o t c o n c e r n t h e m s e 1 v e s . A ~ t h e women's v o i c e was a b s e n t h i s t o r i c a l l y , t h e p r o b l e m was l e f t t o grow. The e x t e n t o f t h e e x i s t i n g p r o b l e m o f f u e l w o o d s h o r t a g e w i l l be examined i n some d e t a i l i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n o f t h e r e p o r t .

C o o k i n g i s b y f a r t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t e n e r g y consuming a c t i v i t y i n t h e h o u s e h o l d , w i t h h e a t i n g and l i g h t i n g r e q u i r i n g s m a l l e r q u a n t i t i e s o f e n e r g y . D i f f e r e n c e s a r e a p p a r e n t i n t h e use o f e n e r g y between r u r a l and u r b a n h o u s e h o l d s ( s e e T a b l e 1 . 8 ) . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e p h y s i c a l a v a i l a b i l i t y o f v a r i o u s e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s a f u r t h e r d e t e r m i n i n g f a c t o r i s income. As y e t , no s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e on t h e l a t t e r .

R u r a l Househol d C o n s u r n ~ t i o n .

W i t h a l m o s t n i n e o u t o f e v e r y t e n Mozambicans l i v i n g i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s , i n e v i t a b 1 y r u r a l d o m e s t i c e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n a c c o u n t s f o r t h e l i o n ' s s h a r e o f t o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n . The r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n s e v e r a l a r e a s o f t h e c o u n t r y has been h i t b y t h e f u e l w o o d s h o r t a g e and i n g e n e r a l has few a l t e r n a t i v e s open t o i t , f o r f i n a n c i a l and s u p p l y r e a s o n s . A s e r i o u s s t u d y o f r u r a l e n e r g y p r o b l e m s i s t h e r e f o r e r e q u i r e d , i n p a r t i c u l a r g i v e n t h a t t h e s o c i a l i s a t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y s i d e has r e c e i v e d t h e g o v e r n m e n t ' s h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y . N o t on1 y does t h e communal v i l l a g e programme r a i s e q u e s t i o n s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d a v a i l a b i l i t y , i t a1 so r a i s e s ones c o n c e r n i n g f u e l wood and o t h e r l o c a l l y a v a i l a b l e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s . The p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t between a g r i c u l t u r a l p o t e n t i a l and f u e l w o o d p o t e n t i a l on t h e l and i s r e p e a t e d i n t e r m s o f l a b o u r t i m e a l l o c a t i o n . I f a l l t h e wood s u p p l y i n t h e i m m e d i a t e v i c i n i t y o f t h e communal v i l l a g e i s removed t o f a c i l i t a t e c u l t i v a t i o n , women w i l l have t o spend a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e i r t i m e w a l k i n g l o n g e r d i s t a n c e s t o c o l l e c t t h e wood. T h e r e w i l l be a c o r r e s p o n d i n g 1 y s h o r t e r t i m e p e r i o d a v a i l a b l e f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k .

V i r t u a l l y a l l r u r a l h o u s e h o l d s a r e d e p e n d e n t on wood f o r t h e i r m a j o r e n e r g y s o u r c e . I t a l s o p r o v i d e s h e a t i n g and b a c k g r o u n d l i g h t i n g . P a r a f f i n lamps and c a n d l e s a r e t h e u s u a l s o u r c e o f d i r e c t l i g h t i n g .

The r e l a t i v e l y h i g h c o n s u m p t i o n o f c r o p w a s t e s and dung i n d i c a t e s an a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g f u e l w o o d s h o r t a g e and can s e r i o u s l y d e t r a c t f r o m s o i l f e r t i l i t y i n t h e l o n g t e r m . Crop r e s i d u e s a r e o n l y a v a i l a b l e d u r i n g c e r t a i n t i m e s o f t h e y e a r , n o t a b l y f o l l o w i n g t h e h a r v e s t . G i v e n t h e h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e r u r a l a r e a s , t h e r e i s a s t r o n g c a s e f o r c a r r y i n g o u t a r u r a l e n e r g y s u r v e y t o g a i n a more a c c u r a t e and d e t a i l e d p i c t u r e o f t h e s i t u a t i o n and t h e d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n t h e p r o v i n c e s .

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TABLE 1.8

Summary R e p o r t Of F u e l Consumption ( M i l l i o n s o f G i g a - J o u l e s )

L e v e l /Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

S e c t o r

Urban H o u s e h o l d 8.9 12.3 15.4 20.1 24.5

Wood F u e l 6.8 9.0 10.9 13.6 15.8

C h a r c o a l 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7

Kerosene 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0

E l e c t r i c i t y 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.4

LPG 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5

S e c t o r

R u r a l H o u s e h o l d 206.2 231.6 256.0 289.7 322.0

Wood F u e l 186.4 211.1 235.3 268.5 301.0

C h a r c o a l 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6

Dung/Resi due 18.1 18.1 17.5 16.8 15.2

Kerosene 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.3

E l e c t r i c i t y 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.9

S e c t o r

A g r i c u l t u r e 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.8 6.6

Wood F u e l 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.1

Gas01 i n e 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

D i e s e l 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2

E l e c t r i c 1 t y 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

S e c t o r

I n d u s t r y 46.8 53.6 60.3 70.8 81.3

Wood F u e l 20.5 23.5 26.6 30.7 34.8

C h a r c o a l 11.9 13.7 15.5 18.0 20.5

Wood I n d u s t r i a l 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.9 5.6

Kerosene 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

R e s i d u a l O i l 6.3 7.1 7.8 9.6 11.4

E l e c t r i c i t y 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.5

Coal 3.5 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.3

S e c t o r

Commer/Inst 3.9 5.4

Wood F u e l 0.6 0.9

C h a r c o a l 0.2 0.2

R e s i d u a l 0 i 1 2.7 3.8

E l e c t r i c i t y 0.3 0.5

Coal 0.0 0.0

S e c t o r

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 12.2 14.2

Gas01 i ne 1.7 2.0

D i e s e l 4.5 5.3

A v i a t i o n F u e l 0.8 1 . 0

R e s i d u a l O i l 2.8 3.3

Coal 2.3 2.7

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Urban Hobsebol d C o n s u m p t i o n .

p - . - - - -

Urban d ~ ~ e l l e r s t e n d t o have g r e a t e r access t o wage income and a w i d e r a v a i l a b i l i t y o f e n e r g y s u p p l i e s . Even so, e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n p a t t e r n s a r e b a s i c a l l y s i m i l a r . Fuelwood and c h a r c o a l a r e b y f a r t h e r o s t i m p o r t a n t f u e l s u s e d . Kerosene, e l e c t r i c i t y and b o t - l e d gas a l s o p r o v i d e : m p o r t a n t u r b a n d o m e s t i c e n e r g y .

Urban h o u s e h o l d s o n l y a c c o u n t f o r 3 . 2 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o o u r e s t i m a t e s ( s e e T a k l e 1 . 6 ) . Once a g a i n , no d e t a i l e d s u r v e y work has been c a r r i e d o u t t o g a i n a more a c c u r a t e p i c t u r e o f u r b a n d o m e s t i c e n e r g y c c n s ~ m p t i o n ( f o r o u r e s t i m a t e s see T a b l e 1 . 8 ) . C e r t a i n o b s e r v a t i o n s can be made however. The h i g h e r income h o u s e h o l d s t e n d t o use e l e c t r i c i t y and gas f o r c o o k i n g . E l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a l i y i s much more i m g o r t a n t i n t h e u r b a n r a t h e r t h a n t h e r u r a l a r e a s .

By way o f c o n c l u s i o n , i t i s c l e a r t h a t wood and c h a r c o a l w i l l remal'n m a j o r s o u r c e s o f e n e r g y f o r d o n i e s t i c c o n s u m p t i o n r i g h t dp u n t i l t h e y e a r 2000 ( s e e T a b l e 1 . 9 ) . G u a r a n t e e i n g t h e s o u r c e o f s u p p l y t o m e e t a g r o w i n g demand w i l l t h e r e f o r e be v i t a l . T o t a i w o c d f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n w i l l i n c r e a s e b y 65 p e r c e n t o v e r t h e n e x t t w e n t y y e a r s a c c o r d i n g t o o u r e s t i m a t e s ( s e e T a b l e 1 . 1 0 ) and a l r e z d y , a c c o r d i n g t o o u r f i g u r e s , t h e s t o c k o f wood i s b e i n g s e r i o u s l y d e p l e t e d b y c u r r e n t l e v e l s o-F dernand ( s e e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n on wood s u p p l y ) .

I n d u s t r i a l E n e r g y -- Consumption.

l n d u s t r y a c c o u n t e d f o r 1 6 . 6 p e r c e n t o f 211 e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n 1 9 8 0 . A g a i n , w o o d f u e l and c h a r c o a l were t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t e n e r g y s o u r c e s . R e s i d u a l o i i , c o a l and e 1 e c t r i c ; t y were a l s o u s e d ( s e e T a b l e 1 . 8 ) . I n g e n e r a l t h e 1n:ormal i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r uses a t i n y p r o p o v t i o n o f e n e r g y and t h e f o r m a l i n d u s t . r i a 1 s e c t o r i s o v e r w h e l m i n g 1 y t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t .

I n d u s t r y uses a q u a r t e r o f a l l p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , a t h i r d o f e l e c t r i c i t y , a1 i i n d u s t r i a l wood,

58

p e r c e n t o f t h e c o a l , n e a r l y one t e n t h o f t h e f u e l w o o d and n e a r l y 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e c h a r c o 2 l .

C e r t a ~ n i n d u s t r i e s a r e heavy u s e r s O F one p a r t i c u l a r t y p e o f f u e l , stich as c o a l i n t h e cement i n d u s t r y . U n d o u b t e d l y , g i v e n Mozarribique's commi t m e n t t o b u i l d up a b e a v y f n d u s t r ; a l base, e n e r g y demartds i n t h i s s e c t o r

wi:

l s u b s t a i l t i a l 1 . y . I f b o t h

t h e p r o p o s e d a1 u m i n i u m s m e l t e r and i r o n ai-6 s t e e l i n d u s t i - y b e g i n p r o d u c t i o n , t h e n e l e c t r i c i t y c o n s u m p t i o n i n i n d u s t r y w i l l b e t w i c e w h a t i t w o u l d be o t h e r w i s e i n t k e y e a r

?OOC,

T h i s o n l y s e r v e s -to emphasise t h e i n i p o r t a n c ~ o f c 7 c s e l y c o - o r d I n a t i ng e n e r y y p1 a n n i n g w i t h economic p1 a n n i n g I n g e n e r a l . A t p r e s e n t m a n u -f a c t u r i n g o n l y a c c o u n t s f o r a r o d n d 10 p e r c e n t o f

CD?,

b l i t as i t s s h a r e grows, w h i c h it: u n d o u b t e d l y w i l l , i n d u s t r y ' s s h a r e o f e n e r g y c o s ~ s u m p t i o n m u s t i n c r e a s e a c c o r d i n g 1 y .

(34)

(MI I l i o n s a t b i g a - ~ o u ~ e s )

P e t r o

P r o d u c t E l e c t r i c i t y I n d . Wood Fuelwood C h a r c o a l R e s i d u e Coal T o t a l

Urban H o u s e h o l d C o o k i n g L i g h t i n g O t h e r R u r a l H o u s e h o l d

C o o k i n g O t h e r A g r i c u l t u r e

L a r g e Smal l I n d u s t r y

L a r g e U r b a n

I n f o r m a l R u r a l C o t t a g e C o n s t r u c t i o n R u r a l C o n s t P o l e s

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Road P r i v a t e Pub1 i c R a i 1 Passenger F r e i g h t AI r

TOTAL DEMAND 4 5 . 8 3 1 0 . 0 4 5 . 6 1 357.65 23.26 1 5 . 2 0 1 0 . 5 4 4 6 8 . 1 3

(35)

TABLE 1 . 1 0

End-Use F u e l R e q u i r e m e n t s Of Fuelwood (Mi l l i o n s o f Gi g a - J o u l es )

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Urban H o u s e h o l d 6 . 7 7 8.99 10.86 1 3 . 5 9 1 5 . 7 9

R u r a l H o u s e h o l d 186.45 211.13 2 3 5 . 2 7 268.48 300.96

A g r i c u l t u r e 2 . 3 0 2 . 6 8 3 . 0 6 3 . 5 8 4.11

I n d u s t r y 20.53 23.55 26.57 30.69 3 4 . 8 1

Commer/Inst 0.65 0 . 9 1 1 . 1 7 1 . 5 8 1 . 9 8

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0

T o t a l Demand 216.70 247.26 276,93 317.92 357.65

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Much o f t h e m a c h i n e r y i n i n d u s t r y i s o l d and t h e r e f o r e o p e r a t e s i n e f f i c i e n t l y and i s c o s t l y on e n e r g y . The e v e n t u a l p u r c h a s e o f new e q u i p m e n t c o u l d r e d u c e e n e r g y c o s t s s i g n i f i c a n t l y . The t h r e e p o s s i b l e n a t i o n a l s o u r c e s o f e n e r g y t o ' f u e l t h e p r o p o s e d i n d u s t r i a1 e x p a n s i o n a r e c o a l , h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m Cahora Bassa and n a t u r a l gas. I t i s t o o e a r l y as y e t t o make any s p e c i f ~ c p r e d i c t i o n s a b o u t f u t u r e i n d u s t r i a l demand f o r e n e r g y beyond t h o s e c o n t a i n e d w i t h i n T a b l e s 1 . 8 and 1 . 9 . Many d i f f e r e n t p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t . C e r t a i n p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s t h a t Mozambique i n t e n d s d e v e l o p i n g a r e e n e r g y i n t e n s i v e , s u c h as m e t a l p r o c e s s i n g , f e r t i l i s e r and c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t i o n . Our i n i t i a1 e s t i m a t e s a r e t h a t t o t a l i n d u s t r i a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n w i l l i n c r e a s e 74 p e r c e n t b y t h e y e a r 2000.

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n .

A f t e r d o m e s t i c and i n d u s t r i a1 c o n s u m p t i o n , t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r i s t h e t h i r d l a r g e s t e n e r g y consumer, a c c o u n t i n g f o r 4 . 3 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l . D i e s e l has t h e g r e a t e s t i m p o r t a n c e f o l lo w e d b y r e s i d u a l o i l , c o a l , g a s o l e n e and a v i a t i o n f u e l ( s e e T a b l e 8 ) . Road t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a c c o u n t s f o r j u s t o v e r h a l f o f a l l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n t h i s s e c t o r , r a i l t r a n s p o r t f o r 42 p e r c e n t and a i r t r a n s p o r t f o r t h e r e m a i n i n g 7 p e r c e n t .

U n d o u b t e d l y t h e g r e a t e s t demand on e x p e n s i v e i m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s comes f r o m t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r , a b o u t 40 p e r c e n t i n t o t a l . B u t u n l i k e many o f t h e advanced i n d u s t r i a l i s e d c o u n t r i e s , w h e r e a g r e a t amount i s consumed b y t h e p r i v a t e p l e a s u r e m o t o r i s t , t h e r e i s o n l y a c e r t a i n l i m i t e d room f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n measures as m o s t o f t h e f u e l consumed i n Mozambique i s d i r e c t 1 y r e 1 a t e d t o p r o d u c t i v e o r p r o d u c t i o n s u p p o r t i v e a c t i v i t i e s . However, economies i n t h e u s e o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s have c l e a r l y t o b e a t t e m p t e d i n t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r .

A t p r e s e n t p r i v a t e c a r s a r e a l l o w e d 20 l i t r e s p e r week o f p e t r o l a t t h e b a s i c r a t e o f 2 7 m e t i c a i s p e r l i t r e . I n d i v i d u a l s c a n b u y more, b u t o n l y w i t h a 100 m e t i c a i s s u r c h a r g e . As many l i t r e s as r e q u i r e d c a n be p u r c h a s e d a t 2 7 m e t i c a i s p e r l i t r e , as l o n g as t h i s i s p a i d f o r i n f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y . These measures, i n t r o d u c e d i n t h e e a r l y p a r t o f 1981, have a l r e a d y p r o d u c e d a s a v i n g i n f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e . Towards t h e e n d o f 1 9 8 1 s t a t e s t r u c t u r e s were a1 so l i m i t e d b y an amendment t o t h e l a w , i n t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e y c o u l d p a y t h e 100 m e t i c a i s s u r c h a r g e . G i v e n t h a t t h e s t a t e a c c o u n t s f o r t h e o v e r w h e l m i n g s h a r e o f r o a d t r a n s p o r t t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n l y p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r i m p o s i n g economy measures. A f u r t h e r de f a c t o economy measure i s t h e v e r y l i m i t e d number o f p r i v a t e c a r s f o r s a l e i n s i d e t h e c o u n t r y . These g e n e r a l l y have t o be p u r c h a s e d i n f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y f r o m a b r o a d . The t o t a l number o f p a s s e n g e r c a r s f e l l d r a m a t i c a l l y a t t h e t i m e o f i n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m 49,000 i n 1973 t o 29,500 i n 1976. A s t u d y c a r r i e d o u t i n t h e l a t e 1970s, e s t i m a t e d t h a t a b o u t one q u a r t e r o f t h e t r u c k f l e e t was more t h a n s e v e n t e e n y e a r s o l d , t h e r e f o r e v e r y i n e f f i c i e n t and h e a v y on f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n .

References

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