Economic growth and banking in Russia
VTB24 President – Chairman of the Board
Mikhail Zadornov
Russia in world ranking by GDP based on PPP
bln. USD,
current prices (2012)
1 USA 15 685
2 China 12 406
3 India 4 684
4 Japan 4 628
5 Germany 3 197
6 Russia 2 513
7 Brasil 2 356
8 Great Britain 2 336
9 France 2 254
10 Italy 1 833
Source: IMF
Russia in world ranking by GDP per capita based on PPP
USD, current prices (2012)
1 Qatar 102 211
2 Luxembourg 79 785
3 Singapore 60 410
4 Norway 55 009
5 Brunei 54 389
… … …
16 Sweden 41 191
… … …
23 Finland 36 395
… … …
45 Estonia 21 713
46 Lithuania 21 615
… … …
51 Latvia 18 255
52 Argentina 18 112
53 Antigua and Barbuda 18 027
54 Croatia 17 810
55 Russia 17 709
56 Malaysia 16 922
57 Botswana 16 820
… … …
105 Ukraine 7 374
Share of Russia in global indicators
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service, IMF, VTB24 calculations
Share of Russian GDP (2012)
Export 26,2%
Foreign trade turnover 42,9%
Share of Russia in global indicators (2012)
GDP 3,0%
Population 2,0%
Area 11,5%
Demographics of Russia
143,6
141,6
140
142 144 146
Projections of Russian population, mln.
Total population 85,1
77,3
76 78 80 82 84 86
Working-age population
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service
Russia GDP growth rate
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service
10,0%
5,1%
4,8%
7,3% 7,2%
6,4%
8,2% 8,5%
5,2%
-7,8%
4,5% 4,3%
3,4%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Russia GDP annual growth rate, %
Historical data and projections of Russia GDP growth rate
Note: dotted line denotes values projected by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
4,8
4,3
3
2,1
1,6 1,4
1,9 2,2
3,0 3,1 3,3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 2014 2015 2016
%, year-to-year
GDP growth rate
Average annual oil price
Source: finam.ru
28,1 24,1 25,4 28,8
38,5
55,2
66,0 75,2
98,0
64,0 80,5
112,1
111,5
107,7
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Annual average Brent price, USD per barrel
International trade growth rate
Source: IMF
11,9
0,3 4,0
5,8
10,8
7,7
9,2
8,0
3,1
-10,6
12,5
6,0
2,5
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
International trade growth rate, %, year-to-year
Historical data and projections of capital investment in Russia
Note: dotted line denotes values projected by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
16,3
11,6 10,3
6,6
0,1
-1,7
4,4 3,9
7,2 6,8
-4 0 4 8 12 16 20
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 2014 2015
%, year-to-year
Capital investment growth rate
Russian export in 2012
Note: other components include other mineral products, precious gems, metals and their products, wood and paper products, textile and shoes, leather , furs and their products and other goods.
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service
Major export components Share of export, % (2012)
1 Fuel and energy 70,4
2 Metals and their products 8,5 3 Chemical industry
products, rubber 6,1
4 Machinery, equipment,
and vehicles 5,0
5 Food and agricultural raw
materials 3,2
6 Other components 6,8
Structure of capital investment sources
Other sources include extra-budgetary funds, funds of companies and individuals for housing construction partnerships, funds of superior organizations, funds from issuance of corporate shares and obligations.
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service
41,9 45,4
8,6 8,4
19,2 17,8
30,3 28,4
0 20 40 60 80 100
2011 2012
Sources of capital investment, %
Other sources Budget funds Bank loans Internal financing
Foreign direct investment in Russia
Source: Bank of Russia, VTB24 calculations
74,8 36,6 43,2 55,1 51,4
4,5%
3,0% 2,9%
3,0%
2,6%
0,0%
1,5%
3,0%
4,5%
6,0%
0 20 40 60 80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Russia, mln. USD
FDI to Russia GDP ratio, % (right axis)
Countries with the largest volume of net aggregate FDI in Russia in 2008-2012
mln. USD
1 Cyprus 53 163
2 Netherlands 28 150
3 Luxembourg 25 695
4 British Virgin Islands 19 175
5 Ireland 18 121
6 Germany 13 809
7 Bermuda 12 971
8 Sweden 8 690
9 Bahamas 7 415
10 France 6 193
Source: Bank of Russia
Net capital outflow from Russia
Note: net capital outflow includes outflow via transactions of government, regions, Bank of Russia, commercial banks and other sectors.
Source: Bank of Russia, VTB24 calculations
34,5 30,7 84,8 36,8
2,8%
2,1%
4,6%
1,8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0 20 40 60 80 100
2009 2010 2011 2012
Total capital outflow, mln. USD
Total capital outflow to GDP ratio, % (right axis)
Final consumption structure
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service, VTB24 calculations
73,0% 72,4%
27,0% 27,6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2011 2012
Final consumption expenditures, %
Households Government
Russian federal budget
Source: federal laws on budget execution, Long-Run Budget Strategy of Russia till 2030
18,4%
20,8% 20,5%
19,3%
18,0% 18,8%
17,4%
22,4%
20,0% 20,6% 20,1%
18,2% 18,8% 18,0%
-4,0%
0,8%
-0,1%
-0,8% -0,2% 0,0%
-0,6%
-5,0%
-2,5%
0,0%
2,5%
5,0%
7,5%
10,0%
12,5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Federal budget indicators to GDP
Revenues Spending Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) (right axis)
Russian regional budgets
Source: federal laws on budget execution, Long-Run Budget Strategy of Russia till 2030
14,5% 14,0%
12,9% 12,9%
12,0% 12,3% 12,7%
14,7%
14,1%
13,3% 13,2%
12,1% 12,4% 12,7%
0,2%
-0,1%
-0,4% -0,3%
-0,1% -0,1% 0,0%
-0,5%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Regional budgets indicators to GDP
Revenues Spending Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) (right axis)
Real income growth and retail sales in 2011-2013
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service
0,8
1,6
4,4
4,9
5,8 6,2
3,4 1,7
7,2
7,9 7,4
5,6
4,9
4,1
3,6 3,8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013
%, year-to-year
Real disposable income, growth rate Retail trade turnover, growth rate
Total assets of Russian banks to GDP ratio
Source: Bank of Russia, Russian Federal State Statistics Service, VTB24 calculations
2013*: Russia GDP from July 2012 to June 2013, total assets of Russian banks after June 2013.
45,1%
51,9%
60,5%
67,9%
75,8%
73,0% 74,6%
79,1% 80,4%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Total assets of Russian banks to GDP ratio, %
Total assets of Russian banks growth rate
Source: Bank of Russia, VTB24 calculations
2013*: growth rate for 12 month from October 2012 till September 2013
36,6%
43,2% 44,1%
39,2%
5,0%
14,9%
23,1%
18,9%
18,5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Total assets of Russian banks, growth rate, %, year-to-year
Banking system profit and return on equity
Source: Bank of Russia
2013*: profit for 12 months from September 2012 till August 2013, total equity after August 2013
93 128 178 262 372 508 409 205 573 848 1012 988 16,0% 15,8%
18,8%
21,1% 21,9%
19,0%
10,7%
4,4%
12,1%
16,2% 16,6%
14,7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 250 500 750 1 000 1 250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Current profit, bln. rub. Return on equity, % (right axis)
Loans to individuals and companies: different trends
Source: Bank of Russia, VTB24 calculations
Note: Loans to companies are loans to non-financial enterprises according to Bank of Russia methodology 2013*: growth rate for 12 months from October 2012 till September 2013
-11,0%
14,3% 35,9% 39,4% 31,0%
0,3% 12,1% 26,0% 12,7% 12,8%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Loans to individuals and companies
Loans to individuals, annual growth rate, % Loans to companies, annual growth rate, %
Sales of new cars in Russia are falling
Source: ACEA, AEB, VTB24 calculations
Sales of new cars in Russia in January – September 2013 decreased by 2.5% compared to the same period of the previous record-breaking year. By the end of 2013 decline in sales may reach 5-6%.
Share of car sales financed with loans in 2013 rose to 38-39% compared to 30% in 2012.
0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
Sales of new cars in Russia, pcs.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mortgage financing becomes more and more important for house acquisitions
839
1032
953
1160
897
985
1067
1169
918
1070
1323
93
142 152
198
147
205 211 228
169
224 247
11,1%
13,8%
16,0%
17,1%
16,4%
20,8%
19,8%
19,5%
18,4%
20,9%
18,6%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013
thousansd transactions
