• No results found

Characterization and application of near infrared reflection spectroscopy for quantitative process analysis of powder mixtures

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Characterization and application of near infrared reflection spectroscopy for quantitative process analysis of powder mixtures"

Copied!
60
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Full text

(1) 'HSDUWPHQWRI&KHPLVWU\ 'LYLVLRQRI$QDO\WLFDO&KHPLVWU\ . .      . &KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQDQG$SSOLFDWLRQRI1HDU,QIUDUHG 5HIOHFWLRQ6SHFWURVFRS\IRU4XDQWLWDWLYH 3URFHVV$QDO\VLVRI3RZGHU0L[WXUHV   2OD%HUQWVVRQ 'RFWRUDOWKHVLV.   6XSHUYLVRUV /DUV*|UDQ'DQLHOVVRQ 6WDIIDQ)ROHVWDG.    . $NDGHPLVNDYKDQGOLQJVRPPHGWLOOVWnQGDY.XQJO7HNQLVND+|JVNRODQL6WRFNKROPIUDPOlJJHVWLOO RIIHQWOLJJUDQVNQLQJI|UDYOlJJDQGHDYWHNQRORJLHGRNWRUVH[DPHQRQVGDJPDMNOLVDO .7HNQLNULQJHQ.7+6WRFNKROP$YKDQGOLQJHQI|UVYDUDVSnHQJHOVND.

(2) .                                  &KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQDQGDSSOLFDWLRQRIQHDULQIUDUHGUHIOHFWLRQ VSHFWURVFRS\IRUTXDQWLWDWLYHSURFHVVDQDO\VLVRISRZGHUPL[WXUHV. . ‹2OD%HUQWVVRQ ,6%1    .XQJO7HNQLVND+|JVNRODQ 'HSDUWPHQWRI&KHPLVWU\ 'LYLVLRQRI$QDO\WLFDO&KHPLVWU\ 6(6WRFNKROP 6ZHGHQ. . LL.

(3)        . 7R)ULGD. .        . ³<RX¶UHP\VXQP\PRRQ P\JXLGLQJVWDU P\NLQGRIZRQGHUIXO WKDW¶VZKDW\RXDUH´  %:KLWH. . . LLL.

(4) . LY.

(5)  . $EVWUDFW &KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQDQGDSSOLFDWLRQRIQHDULQIUDUHGUHIOHFWLRQVSHFWURVFRS\IRU TXDQWLWDWLYHSURFHVVDQDO\VLVRISRZGHUPL[WXUHV  1HDULQIUDUHGVSHFWURVFRS\ 1,5

(6) LVDYHUVDWLOHWHFKQLTXHH[WHQVLYHO\XVHGIRU DQDO\VLVHVSHFLDOO\LQSURFHVVDQDO\WLFDOFKHPLVWU\ 3$&

(7) 7KLVWKHVLVGHDOVZLWKWKH XVHRI1,5IRUTXDQWLWDWLYHSURFHVVDQDO\VLVRISRZGHUPL[WXUHV )LUVWWKHFRQFHSWRI3$&LVLQWURGXFHGDQGDQLQWURGXFWLRQWR1,5VSHFWURVFRS\ LVJLYHQWKDWFRYHUVLWVKLVWRU\EDVLFSULQFLSOHVDQGWHFKQLTXHVDQGDQRYHUYLHZRI SKDUPDFHXWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQVRI1,5 7ZRPHWKRGVIRUFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQDQGGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]H LQGLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQ1,5VSHFWURVFRS\DUHSUHVHQWHG 3DSHUV,±,,

(8) 7KHWZRPHWKRGV DUHVKRZQWRDJUHHZHOO/DUJHGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HZHUHIRXQG ERWKEHWZHHQSRZGHUVRIGLIIHUHQWSDUWLFOHVL]HDQGFRPSRVLWLRQDQGEHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQWZDYHOHQJWKV)XUWKHUPRUHDQLQFUHDVHGXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDO DEVRUSWLRQDQGVFDWWHULQJSKHQRPHQDZDVREWDLQHGWKURXJKGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKH PDVVVSHFLILFDEVRUSWLRQDQGVFDWWHULQJFRHIILFLHQWV 7KHHIIHFWRIVDPSOHPRYHPHQWRQ1,5PHDVXUHPHQWVZDVLQYHVWLJDWHGIRUD )RXULHUWUDQVIRUPVSHFWURPHWHU 3DSHU,,,

(9) ,WLVVKRZQWKDWDUWLIDFWVLJQDOVDSSHDULQ WKHLQWHUIHURJUDPVDVUHVXOWRIVDPSOHPRYHPHQW+RZHYHUWKH\GRQRWGLVWXUEWKH 1,5VSHFWUDOUHJLRQXQGHUWKHH[SHULPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVXVHGKHUH,QVWHDGWKH DUWLIDFWVFDQEHXVHGWRREWDLQLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHVDPSOHPRYHPHQWGXULQJSURFHVV PHDVXUHPHQWV $VLPSOLILHGPHWKRGIRUGHYHORSPHQWRIFDOLEUDWLRQVIRUSRZGHUPL[WXUHVLV SUHVHQWHG 3DSHU,9

(10) ,WLVGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWPXOWLYDULDWHFDOLEUDWLRQPRGHOVIRU ELQDU\SRZGHUPL[WXUHVFDQEHHVWDEOLVKHGLQDVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGZD\XVLQJDVPDOO QXPEHURIKHWHURJHQHRXVFDOLEUDWLRQVDPSOHVE\XVLQJWKHPHDQRIDODUJHQXPEHU RIPHDVXUHPHQWVRQHDFKVDPSOH)XUWKHUPRUHLWLVVKRZQWKDWWKHUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ SRZGHUFRQWHQWDQG1,5VSHFWUDLVLQKHUHQWO\QRQOLQHDU $PHWKRGIRUTXDQWLWDWLYHLQOLQHPRQLWRULQJRISRZGHUPL[LQJSURFHVVHVLV SUHVHQWHG 3DSHU9

(11) 5HDOWLPHGHWHUPLQDWLRQVRIWKHSRZGHUPL[WXUHFRQWHQWDUH PDGHLQVLWXGXULQJSURFHVVLQJE\PHDQVRIDILEHURSWLFGLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQSUREH LQVHUWHGLQWRWKHPL[HU,WLVVKRZQWKDWWKHKLJKUDWHRIVDPSOLQJXVHG VSHFWUDPLQHQDEOHVERWKWKHPHDQYDOXHDQGWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHPL[WXUH FRQWHQWWREHDVVHVVHGGXULQJSURFHVVLQJ7KHPHWKRGFDQEHXVHGWRHYDOXDWHWKH SHUIRUPDQFHRISRZGHUKDQGOLQJRSHUDWLRQVGXULQJGHYHORSPHQWVFDOHXSDQG SURGXFWLRQ . . Y.

(12) 6DPPDQIDWWQLQJ .DUDNWHULVHULQJRFKWLOOlPSQLQJDY1,5VSHNWURVNRSLI|UNYDQWLWDWLY SURFHVVDQDO\VDYSXOYHUEODQGQLQJDU  1lUDLQIUDU|GVSHNWURVNRSL 1,5

(13) lUHQPnQJVLGLJWHNQLNIOLWLJWDQYlQGI|UNHPLVN DQDO\VLV\QQHUKHWLQRPSURFHVVDQDO\WLVNNHPL 3$&

(14) 'HQQDDYKDQGOLQJEHKDQGODU DQYlQGQLQJHQDY1,5I|UNYDQWLWDWLYSURFHVVDQDO\VDYSXOYHUEODQGQLQJDU )|UVWLQWURGXFHUDVEHJUHSSHW3$&RFKHQLQWURGXNWLRQWLOO1,5VSHNWURVNRSLJHV 'HQQDRPIDWWDUGHVVKLVWRULDJUXQGOlJJDQGHSULQFLSHURFKWHNQLNHUVDPWHQ|YHUVLNW DYGHIDUPDFHXWLVNDWLOOlPSQLQJDUQDDY1,5 7YnPHWRGHUI|UNDUDNWHULVHULQJRFKEHVWlPQLQJDYGHQHIIHNWLYDSURYVWRUOHNHQ YLGPlWQLQJDYQlUDLQIUDU|GGLIIXVUHIOHNWLRQSUHVHQWHUDV ,,,

(15) 'HWWYnPHWRGHUQD VWlPPHUYlO|YHUHQV6WRUDVNLOOQDGHULGHQHIIHNWLYDSURYVWRUOHNHQHUK|OOVEnGH PHOODQSXOYHUPHGROLNDSDUWLNHOVWRUOHNRFKVDPPDQVlWWQLQJRFKPHOODQROLND YnJOlQJGHU%HVWlPQLQJDYGHPDVVSHFLILNDDEVRUSWLRQVRFKVSULGQLQJV NRHIILFLHQWHUQDJDYYLGDUHHQI|UGMXSDGI|UVWnHOVHDYGHJUXQGOlJJDQGHDEVRUSWLRQV RFKOMXVVSULGQLQJVIHQRPHQHQ (IIHNWHQDYU|UOLJDSURYHUSn1,5PlWQLQJDUI|UHQ)71,5VSHNWURPHWHUKDU XQGHUV|NWV ,,,

(16) 5HVXOWDWHQYLVDUDWWIUlPPDQGHVLJQDOHUXSSNRPPHUL LQWHUIHURJUDPPHQWLOOI|OMGDYDWWSURYHWU|UVLJ(PHOOHUWLGVW|UGHVVDVLJQDOHULQWH GHWQlUDLQIUDU|GDVSHNWUXPHWYLGGHH[SHULPHQWHOODEHWLQJHOVHUVRPDQYlQWVKlU'H IUlPPDQGHVLJQDOHUQDNDQLVWlOOHWJHDQYlQGEDULQIRUPDWLRQRPSURYHWVKDVWLJKHW YLGSURFHVVPlWQLQJDU (QI|UHQNODGPHWRGI|UXWYHFNOLQJDYNDOLEUHULQJVPRGHOOHUI|USXOYHUEODQGQLQJDU SUHVHQWHUDV ,9

(17) 0XOWLYDULDWDNDOLEUHULQJVPRGHOOHUI|UELQlUDSXOYHUEODQGQLQJDU HQNHOWNDQXSSUlWWDVPHGKMlOSDYHWWInWDOKHWHURJHQDNDOLEUHULQJVSURYHURFK PHGHOYlUGHWDYHWWVWRUWDQWDOPlWQLQJDUSnYDUMHSURY5HVXOWDWHQYLVDUGHVVXWRPDWW GHWILQQVHQLQQHERHQGHLFNHOLQMlULWHWLI|UKnOODQGHWPHOODQHWWSXOYHUV VDPPDQVlWWQLQJRFKGHVV1,5VSHNWUXP (QPHWRGI|UNYDQWLWDWLY|YHUYDNQLQJDYSXOYHUEODQGQLQJVSURFHVVHUSUHVHQWHUDV 9

(18) 6QDEEDEHVWlPQLQJDUDYSXOYHUEODQGQLQJHQVKDOWNDQJ|UDVGLUHNWLEODQGDUHQ XQGHUJnQJPHGKMlOSDYHQILEHURSWLVNUHIOHNWLRQVVRQG'HQK|JD SURYWDJQLQJVKDVWLJKHWHQVSHNWUDSHUPLQXWJ|UGHWP|MOLJWDWWXSSVNDWWDEnGH PHGHOYlUGHWRFKI|UGHOQLQJHQDYEODQGQLQJHQVKDOWHUXQGHUJnQJ0HWRGHQNDQ DQYlQGDVI|UDWWXWYlUGHUDSURFHVVHUGlUSXOYHUKDQWHUDVXQGHUXWYHFNOLQJ XSSVNDOQLQJRFKSURGXNWLRQ   . . YL.

(19) /LVWRISDSHUV 7KLVWKHVLVLVEDVHGRQWKHIROORZLQJSXEOLFDWLRQVZKLFKDUHDSSHQGHGWRWKHWKHVLV  ,. 2%HUQWVVRQ/*'DQLHOVVRQ6)ROHVWDG³(VWLPDWLRQRIHIIHFWLYHVDPSOH VL]HZKHQDQDO\VLQJSRZGHUVZLWKGLIIXVHUHIOHFWDQFHQHDULQIUDUHG VSHFWURPHWU\´$QDO&KLP$FWD 

(20) . ,,. 2%HUQWVVRQ7%XUJHU6)ROHVWDG/*'DQLHOVVRQ-.XKQ-)ULFNH ³(IIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HLQGLIIXVHUHIOHFWDQFHQHDU,5VSHFWURPHWU\´$QDO &KHP 

(21) . ,,,. 2%HUQWVVRQ/*'DQLHOVVRQ6)ROHVWDG³&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIGLIIXVH UHIOHFWDQFHILEHUSUREHVDPSOLQJRQPRYLQJVROLGVXVLQJD)RXULHUWUDQVIRUP QHDULQIUDUHGVSHFWURPHWHU´$QDO&KLP$FWD 

(22) . ,9. 2%HUQWVVRQ/*'DQLHOVVRQ02-RKDQVVRQ6)ROHVWDG³4XDQWLWDWLYH GHWHUPLQDWLRQRIFRQWHQWLQELQDU\SRZGHUPL[WXUHVXVLQJGLIIXVHUHIOHFWDQFH QHDULQIUDUHGVSHFWURPHWU\DQGPXOWLYDULDWHDQDO\VLV´$QDO&KLP$FWD 

(23) . 9. 2%HUQWVVRQ/*'DQLHOVVRQ%/DJHUKROP6)ROHVWDG³4XDQWLWDWLYHLQ OLQHPHDVXUHPHQWVRISRZGHUPL[WXUHVE\QHDULQIUDUHGUHIOHFWLRQ VSHFWURVFRS\´6XEPLWWHGWR3RZGHU7HFKQRO.   7KHIROORZLQJSDSHULVDSSHQGHGWRWKHWKHVLV 2%HUQWVVRQ*=DFNULVVRQ*gVWOLQJ³'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIPRLVWXUHLQKDUG JHODWLQFDSVXOHVXVLQJQHDULQIUDUHGVSHFWURVFRS\DSSOLFDWLRQVWRDWOLQH SURFHVVFRQWURORISKDUPDFHXWLFV´-3KDUP%LRPHG$QDO 

(24) . . YLL.

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

(27) . . [.

(28) ,QWURGXFWLRQ ³:KHQ\RXFDQPHDVXUHZKDW\RXDUHVSHDNLQJDERXWDQGH[SUHVVLWLQ QXPEHUV\RXNQRZVRPHWKLQJDERXWLWEXWZKHQ\RXFDQQRWPHDVXUHLWZKHQ\RX FDQQRWH[SUHVVLWLQQXPEHUV\RXUNQRZOHGJHLVRIDPHDJHUDQGXQVDWLVIDFWRU\ NLQG´     /RUG.HOYLQ  $QDO\WLFDOFKHPLVWU\LVDVFLHQWLILFGLVFLSOLQHGHYRWHGWRLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQG TXDQWLILFDWLRQRIFKHPLFDOFRPSRXQGV7KHDPELWLRQLQDQDO\WLFDOFKHPLVWU\LVWR GHYHORSPHDVXUHPHQWWHFKQLTXHVWKDWJLYHWKHJUHDWHVWSRVVLEOHVHOHFWLYLW\DQG VHQVLWLYLW\7KHSUHVHQWGHYHORSPHQWRIDQDO\WLFDOWHFKQLTXHVLVGLUHFWHGWRZDUGV LQVWUXPHQWDOPHWKRGVRIDQDO\VLV0RGHUQVHSDUDWLRQPHWKRGVVXFKDVJDV FKURPDWRJUDSK\OLTXLGFKURPDWRJUDSK\DQGHOHFWURSKRUHWLFPHWKRGVSOD\DQ LPSRUWDQWUROHHVSHFLDOO\LQELRFKHPLFDODQDO\VLV7KHILHOGRIVSHFWURVFRSLFPHWKRGV DVEURDGDVWKHHOHFWURPDJQHWLFVSHFWUXPLVRIJUHDWLPSRUWDQFHERWKDVPHDQVRI GHWHFWLRQLQVHSDUDWLRQPHWKRGVDQGIRUWKHDQDO\VLVRIPL[WXUHV$QDO\WLFDOPHWKRGV VKRXOGEHUDSLGSUHIHUDEO\DXWRPDWHGDQGDEOHWRGHOLYHUUHVXOWVWKDWDUHULFKLQ LQIRUPDWLRQ+LJKVSHHGLQVWUXPHQWVDUHEHFRPLQJDYDLODEOHWKDWSURGXFH PXOWLYDULDWHPHDVXUHPHQWGDWDDWUDWHVRIPHJDE\WHVSHUVHFRQGDQGIDVWFRPSXWHUV DQGHIILFLHQWDOJRULWKPVDUHWKHQUHTXLUHGWRH[WUDFWWKHFKHPLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQ  . $LPDQGREMHFWLYHV  7KHPDLQREMHFWLYHRIWKHZRUNSUHVHQWHGKHUHZDVWRGHYHORSPHWKRGVIRU TXDQWLWDWLYHLQOLQHSURFHVVPRQLWRULQJRISKDUPDFHXWLFDOSRZGHUPL[WXUHV,QRUGHU WRDFKLHYHWKLVDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOVRIGLIIXVHUHIOHFWDQFH1,5 VSHFWURVFRS\DQGWKHLVVXHRIVDPSOLQJZDVQHHGHGZKLFKOHGWR3DSHUV,±,,7KH HIIHFWRIVDPSOHPRYHPHQWRQVSHFWUDOUHVSRQVHZDVFKDUDFWHUL]HGLQ3DSHU,,,3DSHU ,9GHVFULEHVDVLPSOLILHGPHWKRGRORJ\IRUGHYHORSPHQWRIFDOLEUDWLRQVIRUELQDU\ SRZGHUPL[WXUHV)LQDOO\3DSHU9SUHVHQWVDPHWKRGIRUTXDQWLWDWLYHLQOLQH PRQLWRULQJRISRZGHUPL[WXUHVE\1,5.  . . ±±.

(29) . ±±.

(30) 3URFHVVDQDO\WLFDOFKHPLVWU\ 3URFHVVDQDO\WLFDOFKHPLVWU\ 3$&

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

(32) LVWKHPRVWVXLWDEOHWHFKQLTXHIRUSURFHVV DQDO\VLVRIVROLGPDWHULDOVVLQFHWKHDQDO\VLVFDQEHSHUIRUPHGUDSLGO\DQGZLWKRXW QHHGIRUVDPSOHZRUNXS1,5KDVUHFHLYHGDQLQFUHDVLQJDPRXQWRIDWWHQWLRQGXULQJ WKHODVW\HDUV1,5VSHFWURVFRS\LVWKHVXEMHFWRIWKLVWKHVLVDQGLWLVIXUWKHU SUHVHQWHGLQ&KDSWHU. . ±±.

(33) . ±±.

(34) 1HDULQIUDUHGVSHFWURVFRS\ 7KHQHDULQIUDUHGUHJLRQRIWKHHOHFWURPDJQHWLFVSHFWUXPFRYHUVWKHVSHFWUDO UHJLRQEHWZHHQWKHYLVLEOHDQGWKHLQIUDUHGUHJLRQVWKDWLVEHWZHHQDQG QP ±FP

(35) >@ .  . +LVWRU\RI1,5>@. . . 7KHILUVWUHSRUWHGREVHUYDWLRQRIQHDULQIUDUHGUDGLDWLRQZDVPDGHE\WKH DVWURQRPHU:LOOLDP+HUVFKHOLQ+HVWXGLHGVXQOLJKWXVLQJDSULVPDQGD WKHUPRPHWHUDQGIRXQGWKDWWKHUHZDVHQHUJ\SUHVHQWEH\RQGWKHYLVLEOHUHGLQWKH VSHFWUXPRIWKHVXQ7KHREVHUYDWLRQVE\+HUVFKHOZHUHUHFHQWO\UHSHDWHGDQG H[SODLQHG>@$VDWULEXWHWR+HUVFKHOWKHVKRUWZDYH1,5UHJLRQ±QPLV VRPHWLPHVUHIHUUHGWRDVWKH+HUVFKHOUHJLRQ>@7KH1,5UHJLRQUHPDLQHG XQH[SORUHGIRUDORQJWLPH1DWXUDOO\WKHYLVLEOHVSHFWUXPZDVLQYHVWLJDWHGILUVWDQG ODWHUWKHPLGLQIUDUHG ± P

(36) 7KHILUVWLQIUDUHGVSHFWURPHWHUZDVEXLOWE\ &REOHQ]DERXWDQGFRYHUHGWKHUDQJHRI PWR P+HUHYHDOHGWKDW RUJDQLFFRPSRXQGVFRXOGEHGLVFULPLQDWHGE\WKHLUVSHFWUDDQGWKDWFHUWDLQ DEVRUSWLRQEDQGVZHUHFKDUDFWHULVWLFIRUFRPSRXQGVZLWKVLPLODUFKHPLFDO SURSHUWLHV(OOLVDQG%DWKXVHGWKHVWURQJDEVRUSWLRQRIZDWHUWRLQYHVWLJDWHLWV LQWHUDFWLRQZLWKJHODWLQLQ>@+RZHYHUWKH1,5UHJLRQZDVPRVWO\UHJDUGHGDV OHVVDWWUDFWLYHWKDQWKHXOWUDYLROHWYLVLEOHDQGPLGLQIUDUHGUHJLRQVGXHWRLWVEURDG RYHUODSSLQJSHDNVLOOVXLWHGIRUTXDOLWDWLYHRUTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLV 7KHPRGHUQHUDRI1,5GDWHVEDFNWRWKH¶VDQGWKHHDUO\ZRUNE\.DUO1RUULV ³WKHIDWKHURI1,5´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³VOHHSHUDPRQJDQDO\WLFDOWHFKQLTXHV´ >@'XULQJWKHVWKHUHZDVDUDSLGLQFUHDVHLQWKHQXPEHURI1,5SXEOLFDWLRQV DQGWKHQH[W$SDJHDUWLFOHLQVWDWHG³1,5WKH*LDQWLV5XQQLQJ6WURQJ´>@ 7RGD\QHDULQIUDUHGVSHFWURVFRS\LVDZLGHVSUHDGGLYHUVLILHGWHFKQLTXHWKDWKDV IRXQGXVHLQPDQ\DUHDVIURPDJULFXOWXUHWRDVWURQRP\DQGWKHH[SORUDWLRQRIRXWHU VSDFH. . ±±.

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

(38) WRWKHILUVWH[FLWHGYLEUDWLRQDOOHYHO Y 

(39) VHH)LJXUH7KH WUDQVLWLRQIURPWKHJURXQGOHYHOWRWKHVHFRQGH[FLWHGOHYHORUKLJKHULVFDOOHGDQ RYHUWRQH$GLDWRPLFPROHFXOHVXFKDVK\GURJHQFKORULGH +±&O

(40) KDVRQO\RQH YLEUDWLRQDOPRGHEXWSRO\DWRPLFPROHFXOHVKDYHPXOWLSOHPRGHV1PRGHVIRU OLQHDUPROHFXOHVDQG1IRUQRQOLQHDU$WUDQVLWLRQWKDWRFFXUVVLPXOWDQHRXVO\IRU WZR RUPRUH

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±±.

(42) $EVRUSWLRQEDQGVLQWKHQHDULQIUDUHGVSHFWUDOUHJLRQDUHRYHUWRQHVDQG FRPELQDWLRQVRIIXQGDPHQWDOVWUHWFKLQJYLEUDWLRQEDQGVWKDWRFFXULQWKHPLG,5 UHJLRQ7KHERQGVLQYROYHGDUHXVXDOO\&²+1²+DQG2²+ZKLFKDUHUHODWLYHO\ DQKDUPRQLFVHH)LJXUH7KXVZDWHUDQGPRVWRUJDQLFPROHFXOHVDEVRUELQWKH1,5 EXWWKHDEVRUSWLRQEDQGVDUHQRWDVGLVWLQFWDQGVSHFLILFDVLQWKHPLG,5UHJLRQ7KH PRODUDEVRUSWLYLWLHVRIWKHRYHUWRQHVDQGFRPELQDWLRQVDUHORZFRPSDUHGWRWKRVHRI WKHIXQGDPHQWDOWUDQVLWLRQV7KHHQHUJ\OHYHOVRIDPROHFXOHDUHVXEMHFWWRFKDQJHVLQ LWVHQYLURQPHQW7KHSUHVHQFHRIQHLJKERULQJQRQDEVRUELQJVSHFLHVLQWKHVDPSOH FDQWKXVEHGHWHFWHGDVVKLIWVLQWKH1,5VSHFWUXP$VDQH[DPSOHWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQ RIDQLQRUJDQLFLRQFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGE\LWVHIIHFWRQWKHZDWHUVSHFWUXP  .  )LJXUH/HIW6FKHPDWLFRIWKHPDLQYLEUDWLRQDODEVRUSWLRQEDQGVLQWKH1,5UHJLRQ 5LJKW1,5GLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQVSHFWUXPRIFHOOXORVH  . 'LIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQ1,5VSHFWURVFRS\>@. .  'LIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQLVDSKHQRPHQRQREVHUYHGLQGDLO\OLIHIRUH[DPSOHDVOLJKW UHIOHFWHGIURPDPDWWHVXUIDFH,QVSHFXODURUPLUURUOLNHUHIOHFWLRQWKHDQJOHRI LQFLGHQFHHTXDOVWKHDQJOHRIUHIOHFWLRQZKLOHGLIIXVHO\UHIOHFWHGOLJKWLVHTXDOO\ LQWHQVHLQDOOGLUHFWLRQV'LIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQUHVXOWVIURPVFDWWHULQJWUDQVPLVVLRQDQG DEVRUSWLRQLQWHUDFWLRQVRIWKHUDGLDWLRQZLWKWKHVDPSOH:KHQ1,5UDGLDWLRQIDOOV XSRQDSRZGHUVDPSOHWKHIUDFWLRQRIWKDWLVQRWUHIOHFWHGVSHFXODUO\SHQHWUDWHVWKH VXUIDFHRIWKHSDUWLFOHVDQGH[FLWHVYLEUDWLRQDOPRGHVRIWKHPROHFXOHVLQWKHVDPSOH 7KHUHIOHFWLRQVSHFWUXPWKHUHIRUHFRQWDLQVDEVRUSWLRQEDQGVWKDWDUHGHSHQGHQW XSRQWKHFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKHVDPSOH7KHUDGLDWLRQLVDOVRVFDWWHUHGLQDOO GLUHFWLRQV2QHFRQVHTXHQFHRIVFDWWHULQJLVWKDWSK\VLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQVXFKDVWKH SDUWLFOHVL]HDQGVKDSHLVDGGHGWRWKHFKHPLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQLQWKHVSHFWUD7KHH[DFW SDWKRIUDGLDWLRQLQWHUDFWLQJZLWKDVFDWWHULQJPDWHULDOLVQRWSUHGLFWDEOHLQD. . ±±.

(43) VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGZD\7KXVGLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQLVDFRPSOH[SKHQRPHQRQ 0RVWWKHRULHVWKDWKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGWRGHVFULEHGLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQRIUDGLDWLRQ KDYHHYROYHGIURPDJHQHUDOUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUHTXDWLRQZKLFKLQVLPSOHWHUPVFDQEH ZULWWHQLQWKHIRUPRI(T . . G, kr,G[. . . (T

(44) . . 7KHUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUHTXDWLRQGHVFULEHVWKHFKDQJHLQLQWHQVLW\G,RIDEHDPRI UDGLDWLRQLQDVDPSOHRIGHQVLW\rIRUZKLFKWKHSDWKOHQJWKLVG[DQGZKHUHWKH DWWHQXDWLRQFRHIILFLHQWkFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHWRWDOORVVRIUDGLDWLRQGXHWRVFDWWHULQJ DQGDEVRUSWLRQ$JHQHUDOIRUPRIWKHHTXDWLRQRIUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHU (57

(45) ZKLFKLV XVHGIRUGHULYDWLRQRISKHQRPHQRORJLFDOWKHRULHVFDQEHZULWWHQ>@  m¼. . +. G, t  m

(46) w = - , t  m

(47) +  ¼ × S m  m

(48) ¼ , t  m

(49) ¼ Gm. Gt  -. (T

(50) .  ,Q(T, tm

(51) LVWKHLQWHQVLW\DWRSWLFDOGHSWKtLQWKHGLUHFWLRQRImWKHFRVLQHRIWKH DQJOHEHWZHHQWKLVGLUHFWLRQDQGWKHQRUPDOWRWKHERXQGDU\VXUIDFHw LVWKHDOEHGR ZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVWKHUDWLRRIWKHVFDWWHULQJFRHIILFLHQWWRWKHWRWDODEVRUSWLYLW\WKDWLV w V  VD

(52) ZLWKWKHPDVVVSHFLILFVFDWWHULQJDQGDEVRUSWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVVDQGD UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHVFDWWHULQJSKDVHIXQFWLRQS mm

(53) GHQRWHVWKHSUREDELOLW\RI VFDWWHULQJHYHQWVIURPGLUHFWLRQm LQWRmDQGqLVWKHVFDWWHULQJDQJOHEHWZHHQm DQG m2IWKHVLPSOLILHGVROXWLRQVWRWKH(57WKHRQHPRVWRIWHQDSSOLHGLVWKHDSSURDFK RI.XEHONDDQG0XQN>@7KH.0WKHRU\FRQVLGHUVUDGLDWLRQWUDYHOLQJLQWZR GLUHFWLRQVIRUZDUGDQGEDFNZDUG7KHFKDQJHLQLQWHQVLW\DVUDGLDWLRQSDVVHV WKURXJKDYHU\WKLQOD\HURIPDWHULDOLVGXHWRWKHEDFNVFDWWHULQJDQGDEVRUSWLRQ SURSHUWLHVRIWKHOD\HU7KHGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVREWDLQHGDUHWKHQLQWHJUDWHGRYHU WKHOD\HU.0WKHRU\VKRZVWKDWIRUDQLQILQLWHO\WKLFNOD\HUWKHUHIOHFWDQFH5ŠLV UHODWHGWRWKHUDWLR.6YLDWKHZHOONQRZQ.XEHOND0XQNIXQFWLRQ(T . . . .  - 5Š

(54)  = 6  ¼ 5Š. (T

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±±.

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±QPUDQJH'XULQJUHFHQW\HDUVWKHVHQVLWLYH ,Q*D$VGHWHFWRUKDVEHFRPHDYDLODEOHLQGLIIHUHQWTXDOLWLHVFRYHULQJWKH1,5UDQJH 1,5LQVWUXPHQWVFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRIRXUJURXSVPDLQO\EDVHGRQWKHSULQFLSOH XVHGWRFUHDWHRUGLVFULPLQDWHEHWZHHQUDGLDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQWZDYHOHQJWKV7KHVH JURXSVDUHVHOHFWLYHOLJKWHPLVVLRQLQVWUXPHQWVGLVSHUVLYHLQVWUXPHQWVILOWHU LQVWUXPHQWVDQG)RXULHUWUDQVIRUP )7

(57) LQVWUXPHQWV 6HOHFWLYHOLJKWHPLVVLRQLQVWUXPHQWVXVHOLJKWHPLWWLQJGLRGHV /('

(58) WKDWHPLW QHDUO\PRQRFKURPDWLFUDGLDWLRQLQWKHORZZDYHOHQJWK1,5UHJLRQ,QVWUXPHQWV XVLQJ/('VDUHFRPSDFWDQGUXJJHG7KHWHFKQLTXHLVIDLUO\UHFHQWEXWUDSLGO\ GHYHORSLQJ 'LVSHUVLYHLQVWUXPHQWVFDQYDU\WKHZDYHOHQJWKRIUDGLDWLRQFRQWLQXRXVO\E\ VFDQQLQJWKHPRQRFKURPDWRURYHUWKHVSHFWUDOUDQJH7KHPRQRFKURPDWRU FRQVWUXFWLRQFRPSULVHVVOLWVOHQVHVPLUURUVZLQGRZVDQGDGLVSHUVLQJHOHPHQW ZKLFKFDQEHDSULVPEXWLVPRVWRIWHQDUHIOHFWLYHKRORJUDSKLFJUDWLQJ$VFDQQLQJ PRQRFKURPDWRUHQDEOHVIXOOUDQJHVSHFWUDOPHDVXUHPHQWVDQGWKHVFDQWLPHLV W\SLFDOO\±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

(59) VHOHFWHGZDYHOHQJWKVDUHQHHGHG6XFK LQVWUXPHQWVFDQEHPDGHVPDOOHUDQGFKHDSHUWKDQGLVSHUVLYHRU)7VSHFWURPHWHUV 7KHDFRXVWRRSWLFDOWXQDEOHILOWHU $27)

(60) LVDGLIIHUHQWW\SHRIILOWHUWKDWLQ SUDFWLFHFDQEHXVHGDVDVFDQQLQJPRQRFKURPDWRU7KH$27)XVHVDELUHIULQJHQW FU\VWDOZKRVHUHIUDFWLYHLQGH[LVFRQWUROOHGE\HOHFWURQLFDOO\JHQHUDWHGDFRXVWLF ZDYHV7KH$27)HQDEOHVYHU\IOH[LEOHVRIWZDUHFRQWUROOHGZDYHOHQJWKVZLWFKLQJDQG. . ±±.

(61) KLJKVSHHGPHDVXUHPHQWVRIXSWRGDWDSRLQWVSHUVHFRQG)XUWKHUPRUHWKH $27)LVUXJJHGDQGKDVQRPRYLQJSDUWV )RXULHUWUDQVIRUP )7

(62) LQVWUXPHQWVKDYHDPXOWLSOH[GHVLJQZKHUHDOOHOHPHQWVRI WKHUDGLDWLRQIURPWKHVRXUFHUHDFKWKHVLQJOHFKDQQHOGHWHFWRUVLPXOWDQHRXVO\$Q LQWHUIHURPHWHULVXVHGWRPRGXODWHWKHVLJQDOLQDZD\WKDWSHUPLWVVXEVHTXHQW GHFRGLQJE\PHDQVRIWKH)RXULHUWUDQVIRUP7KH0LFKHOVRQW\SHLQWHUIHURPHWHULV WKHPRVWFRPPRQ,QSULQFLSOHWKHUDGLDWLRQLVGLYLGHGLQWRWZREHDPVRI DSSUR[LPDWHO\HTXDOSRZHUE\DEHDPVSOLWWHU%\DQDUUDQJHPHQWRIPRYLQJDQG QRQPRYLQJPLUURUVDSDWKOHQJWKGLIIHUHQFHDQGWKXVDQGDSKDVHGLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQWKHWZREHDPVLVLQWURGXFHG:KHQWKHWZREHDPVDUHUHFRPELQHGDWWKH EHDPVSOLWWHUDQGVHQWWRWKHGHWHFWRULQWHUIHUHQFHRFFXUVDVDUHVXOWRIWKHSKDVH GLIIHUHQFH$VRFDOOHGLQWHUIHURJUDPLVREWDLQHGE\UHFRUGLQJWKHGHWHFWRURXWSXW VLJQDODVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHSDWKOHQJWKGLIIHUHQFH7KHLQWHUIHURJUDPFDQEHWHUPHGD WLPHGRPDLQVSHFWUXPLQWKDWWKHGHWHFWRUVLJQDORIDFRQWLQXRXVO\VFDQQLQJ 0LFKHOVRQW\SHLQVWUXPHQWLVUHFRUGHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPH,QFRQWUDVWIUHTXHQF\ GRPDLQVSHFWURVFRS\LVFRQFHUQHGZLWKFKDQJHVLQWKHVLJQDODVDIXQFWLRQRI UDGLDWLRQIUHTXHQF\ ZDYHOHQJWK

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±±.

(64) .  )LJXUH1,5VSHFWUDRIDFHUWLILHGUHIHUHQFHVDPSOHREWDLQHGZLWKDGLVSHUVLYH LQVWUXPHQW 1,56

(65) DQGD)RXULHUWUDQVIRUPLQVWUXPHQW )7

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±±.

(67) $SSOLFDWLRQVRIGLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQ1,5 $VVWDWHGLQWKH,QWURGXFWLRQ1,5LVDVXLWDEOHWHFKQLTXHIRUSURFHVVDQDO\WLFDO FKHPLVWU\ 3$&

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

(70) >@ 1,5LVDOVRSURSRVHGIRU QRQGHVWUXFWLYH

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±±.

(72) SKDUPDFHXWLFDOSUHSDUDWLRQE\1,5FDQEHSUHVHQWHGWRWKHDXWKRULWLHVKDYH DSSHDUHGUHFHQWO\>@ . 0RVWRIWKHUHSRUWHGDSSOLFDWLRQVRI1,5LQWKHSKDUPDFHXWLFDOLQGXVWU\DUHRII OLQHRUDWOLQHLQWKH3$&VHQVH VHH&KDSWHUSDJH

(73) 6WLOOWKHUHDUHRQOLQHDQGLQ OLQHDSSOLFDWLRQVXVLQJ1,5IRUH[DPSOHIRUPRQLWRULQJFKHPLFDOUHDFWLRQV> @IHUPHQWDWLRQSURFHVVHV>@DQGXQLWRSHUDWLRQVVXFKDVGU\LQJ> @JUDQXODWLRQ>@FRDWLQJ>@DQGPL[LQJ>@  . 7KHXVHRIFKHPRPHWULFVDSSOLHGWR1,5 2QHGHILQLWLRQRIFKHPRPHWULFVLV³WKHXVHRIPDWKHPDWLFDOVWDWLVWLFDODQG FRPSXWHUVFLHQFHPHWKRGVIRULPSURYLQJWKHH[WUDFWLRQRIXVHIXOLQIRUPDWLRQIURP FKHPLFDOPHDVXUHPHQWGDWD´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

(74) DQG 3/6 SDUWLDOOHDVWVTXDUHVRUSURMHFWLRQWRODWHQWVWUXFWXUHV

(75) UHJUHVVLRQDUHFRPPRQO\ XVHGIRUFODVVLILFDWLRQDQGFDOLEUDWLRQXVLQJ1,5GDWD7KHH[SUHVVLRQµELOLQHDU¶ PRGHOLQJRULJLQDWHVIURPWKHZD\LQZKLFKWKHVSHFWUDOPDWUL[;LVDSSUR[LPDWHGE\ DPRGHO; 73¶(WKDWLVWKHSURGXFWRIWZRVHWVRIOLQHDUSDUDPHWHUV YHFWRUV

(76)  QDPHGµVFRUHV¶7DQGµORDGLQJV¶3%LOLQHDUPRGHOLQJFDQEHVHHQDVDSURMHFWLRQRI WKHREMHFWV VSHFWUDVDPSOHV

(77) RQWRDQHZVHWRIRUWKRJRQDOD[HVDOVRFDOOHGµODWHQW YDULDEOHV¶µIDFWRUV¶RUµFRPSRQHQWV¶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±<UHODWLRQ 6SHFWUDOGDWDSUHSURFHVVLQJLVRIWHQXVHGWRJHWKHUZLWKELOLQHDUPRGHOLQJRIQHDU LQIUDUHGGDWD7KHREMHFWLYHRISUHSURFHVVLQJLVWRLPSURYHVXEVHTXHQWGDWDDQDO\VLV E\HQKDQFHPHQWRIVRPHSDUWVRIWKHVSHFWUDOLQIRUPDWLRQDWWKHH[SHQVHRIRWKHU SDUWV$W\SLFDOVLWXDWLRQZRXOGEHWRUHGXFHSK\VLFDOHIIHFWVIRUH[DPSOHSDUWLFOH VL]HHIIHFWVRUWHPSHUDWXUHHIIHFWVDQGWKHUHE\WRHQKDQFHFKHPLFDOO\UHOHYDQW LQIRUPDWLRQ. . ±±.

(78) 'LIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQ1,5VSHFWUDRISRZGHUVIUHTXHQWO\H[KLELWVFDWWHULQJYDULDWLRQ GXHWRIRUH[DPSOHYDULDWLRQLQSDUWLFOHVL]HRUVKDSH,WZDVHDUOLHUVKRZQWKDWWKH VFDWWHULQJHIIHFWRQORJ5 VSHFWUDLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\SURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHORJ5 OHYHO >@7KXVWKHVSHFWUDOGDWDSUHSURFHVVLQJPHWKRG06& PXOWLSOLFDWLYHVLJQDO FRUUHFWLRQ

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

(80) >@7KHWZRPHWKRGV 619DQG06&DUHUHODWHGDQGJLYHVLPLODUUHVXOWV>@ . . 1XPHULFDOGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRI1,5GDWDLVDQRWKHUFRPPRQSUHSURFHVVLQJWRRO 8VXDOO\WKH6DYLW]N\*ROD\DOJRULWKPLVXVHGVLQFHLWJLYHVDVPRRWKDQGVWDEOH GHULYDWLYHHTXDOWRWKHGHULYDWLYHRIDSRO\QRPLDOILWWHGWRDVPDOOZLQGRZRI QHLJKERULQJGDWDSRLQWV>@,QFRQWUDVWWR06&VHFRQGRUGHUQXPHULFDO GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQUHPRYHVGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQVSHFWUDLQEDVHOLQHVORSHEXWQRW PXOWLSOLFDWLYHHIIHFWV . . ±±.

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³VFDOHRIVFUXWLQ\´>@)RUH[DPSOHWKHH[SHFWHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQ YDULDQFHRIVDPSOHVRIDFHUWDLQVL]HWDNHQIURPDUDQGRPELQDU\SRZGHUPL[WXUHRI PRQRGLVSHUVHSDUWLFOHVLVJLYHQE\(T>@ . . . . s  S TQ. . . . (T

(82) . +HUHSDQGTDUHWKHIUDFWLRQVRIWKHWZRPDWHULDOV ST 

(83) DQGQLVWKHQXPEHURI SDUWLFOHVLQWKHVDPSOHV+RZHYHUWKHUDGLDWLRQSDWKZLWKLQDVROLGVFDWWHULQJ PDWHULDODQGWKHGHWDLOHGLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQUDGLDWLRQDQGGLIIHUHQWFRPSRQHQWVLQ WKHPDWHULDODUHFRPSOLFDWHGDQGQRWSUHGLFWDEOHLQDVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGZD\7KXVWKH ³VFDOHRIVFUXWLQ\´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±±.

(84) PHWKRGIRUGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HRISRZGHUVZKHUHWKHSDUWLFOH VL]HGLVWULEXWLRQDQGWKHDEVRUSWLYLW\RIGLIIHUHQWFRPSRQHQWVDUHXQNQRZQ . . 7KHYDULDEOHOD\HUWKLFNQHVVPHWKRG>3DSHU,,,@  7KHYDULDEOHOD\HUWKLFNQHVV 9/7

(85) PHWKRGJLYHVDQHPSLULFDOHVWLPDWLRQRIWKH HIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]H7KHSULQFLSOHLVWKDWDQXPEHURIGLIIXVHUHIOHFWDQFH PHDVXUHPHQWV 

(86) DUHPDGHRQSRZGHUOD\HUVRIGLIIHUHQWWKLFNQHVVHV7KH WKLFNQHVVHVRIWKHSRZGHUOD\HUVDUHFRQWUROOHGDQGYDULHGIURPWKHWKLQQHVWSRVVLEOH PP

(87) WRDQRSWLFDOO\LQILQLWHO\WKLFNOD\HU PP

(88) 7KHWKLFNQHVVZDVPHDVXUHG JUDYLPHWULFDOO\DQGWKXVH[SUHVVHGLQXQLWVRIPDVVSHUDUHD PJFP

(89) 7KH H[SHULPHQWDOVHWXSLVGHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOLQ3DSHUV,DQG,,7ZRGLIIHUHQWSRZGHUV ZHUHXVHGRQHILQH G§ P

(90) DQGRQHFRDUVH G§ P

(91) SRZGHU7\SLFDOSORWVRI WKHVSHFWUDREWDLQHGDWGLIIHUHQWWKLFNQHVVHVFDQEHVHHQLQ)LJRI3DSHU,DQG)LJ $RI3DSHU,, . $SORWRIWKHPHDVXUHGSVHXGRDEVRUEDQFH ORJ5

(92) YVOD\HUWKLFNQHVVDWIRXU ZDYHOHQJWKVFDQEHVHHQLQ)LJXUHEHORZ)URPWKHVHJUDSKVLWLVFOHDUWKDWDVWKH OD\HUWKLFNQHVVLQFUHDVHVWKHSVHXGRDEVRUEDQFHGHFUHDVHVDQGDV\PSWRWLFDOO\ UHDFKHVWKHYDOXHRIDQRSWLFDOO\LQILQLWHO\WKLFNOD\HU$QH[SRQHQWLDOFXUYH (T

(93)  ZDVILWWHGWRGDWDDWHDFKRIWKHPHDVXUHGZDYHOHQJWKVUHVSHFWLYHO\,Q(T[LVWKH OD\HUWKLFNQHVVYDOXHVDQG\LVWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJSVHXGRDEVRUEDQFH .  \ S S  H[S S .  . [

(94)  . .  . (T

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’. . ±±.

(96) .             )LJXUH(IIHFWRISRZGHUOD\HUWKLFNQHVVRQORJ5IRUGLIIXVHUHIOHFWDQFH PHDVXUHPHQWVRIILOPFRDWHGSHOOHWVXVLQJWKH9/7PHWKRGDW D

(97) QP E

(98)  QP F

(99) QP G

(100) QP>3DSHU,@7KHVROLGFXUYHLVWKHILWWHGH[SRQHQWLDO FXUYH (T

(101) DQGWKHKRUL]RQWDOOLQHVDUHWKHFRQILGHQFHOLPLWVIRUDQRSWLFDOO\WKLFN VDPSOH ORJ5’

(102)   $QDGYDQWDJHRIWKHYDULDEOHOD\HUWKLFNQHVVPHWKRGLVWKDWWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVFDQ EHSHUIRUPHGXVLQJDQ\GLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQVHWXSLQFOXGLQJILEHURSWLFSUREHVDQGLVE\ QRPHDQVOLPLWHGWRDFHUWDLQNLQGRILQVWUXPHQWDWLRQ  . 7KHHTXDWLRQRIUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUPHWKRG>3DSHU,,@  7KHODVWUHIHUHQFHLQ3DSHU,ZDVWRDUHSRUWE\%XUJHUHWDORQDQHZWHFKQLTXH IRUWKHVHSDUDWHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHVFDWWHULQJDQGDEVRUSWLRQSURSHUWLHVRI SKDUPDFHXWLFDOSRZGHUV>@&ROODERUDWLRQZLWK3URI)ULFNHDQGFRZRUNHUVDWWKH 8QLYHUVLW\RI:U]EXUJ*HUPDQ\ZDVHVWDEOLVKHGLQLQRUGHUWRIXUWKHUH[SORUH WKHSRVVLELOLWLHVRIWKLVQHZWHFKQLTXH 3ULRUWRWKHSDSHUVSUHVHQWHGE\WKHJURXSLQ:U]EXUJWKHPDVVVSHFLILF VFDWWHULQJ V

(103) DQGDEVRUSWLRQ D

(104) FRHIILFLHQWVLQWKHHTXDWLRQRIUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHU (57EULHIO\PHQWLRQHGLQVHFWLRQ

(105) KDGQRWEHHQGHWHUPLQHGVHSDUDWHO\> @([SHULPHQWDOO\GLUHFWLRQDO±KHPLVSKHULFDOWUDQVPLWWDQFHDQGUHIOHFWDQFH DUHPHDVXUHGRQRSWLFDOO\WKLQVDPSOHV+HUHGLUHFWLRQDO±KHPLVSKHULFDOUHIHUVWR FROOLPDWHGVDPSOHLOOXPLQDWLRQDQGKHPLVSKHULFDOGHWHFWLRQXVLQJDQLQWHJUDWLQJ VSKHUH,QSULQFLSOHWKHVSHFWUDREWDLQHGLQWUDQVPLVVLRQDQGUHIOHFWLRQPRGHDUH FRPELQHGDQGE\XVLQJDWKUHHIOX[GLVFUHWHRUGLQDWHDSSUR[LPDWLRQRIWKH(57WKH HIIHFWLYHVSHFLILFVFDWWHULQJDQGDEVRUSWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVDUHREWDLQHGVHH)LJXUH. . ±±.

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

(107) DQGDEVRUSWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVIRUWZRGLIIHUHQW VLHYHIUDFWLRQVRIWZRGLIIHUHQWSRZGHUVUHVSHFWLYHO\/HIW3RO\VW\UHQH PLFURVSKHUHV5LJKW)LOPFRDWHGSHOOHWV>@7KHGLIIHUHQFHLQSDUWLFOHVL]HFOHDUO\ DIIHFWVWKHVFDWWHULQJFRHIILFLHQWEXWQRHIIHFWFDQEHVHHQLQWKHDEVRUSWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW  ,Q3DSHU,,WKHVFDWWHULQJDQGDEVRUSWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVZHUHXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKH GLUHFWLRQDO±KHPLVSKHULFDOUHIOHFWDQFHDVDIXQFWLRQRISRZGHUOD\HUWKLFNQHVV7KH HIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HZDVGHILQHGDVWKHPDVVSHUDUHDDWZKLFKWKHUHIOHFWDQFHKDG UHDFKHGDFHUWDLQOLPLWZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKDWRIDQRSWLFDOO\WKLFNVDPSOH $QDGYDQWDJHRIWKH(57PHWKRGEHVLGHVWKHYDOXDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQREWDLQHGLV WKDWRQO\DIHZPHDVXUHPHQWVRIWKHSRZGHULQWUDQVPLVVLRQDQGUHIOHFWLRQPRGHDUH QHHGHG7KHHTXLSPHQWUHTXLUHGWRREWDLQGLUHFWLRQDO±KHPLVSKHULFDOWUDQVPLVVLRQ DQGUHIOHFWLRQVSHFWUDZDVEXLOWLQKRXVH8QWLOVXFKHTXLSPHQWEHFRPHV FRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHWKHXVHRIWKH(57PHWKRGZLWKLQWKH1,5FRPPXQLW\ZLOOEH OLPLWHG. . ±±.

(108) (IIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HIRUSKDUPDFHXWLFDOSRZGHUV  2QHH[DPSOHRIDSORWRIWKHUHIOHFWDQFHDVDIXQFWLRQRISRZGHUOD\HUWKLFNQHVVLV VKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHUHVXOWVIURPWKH9/7DQGWKH(57PHWKRGVDUHSORWWHGLQWKH VDPHJUDSKDQGLWFDQEHVHHQWKDWWKH\DJUHHZHOO7KHVKDSHVRIWKHFXUYHVLQ)LJXUH DUHLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIGLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQDQGIRUWKHGLVFXVVLRQRI HIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]H7KH5 P

(109) 5ŠUDWLRFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGDVWKHFRQWULEXWLRQIURP WKHRXWHUPRVWSRZGHUOD\HUZLWKPDVVSHUDUHDPWRWKHWRWDOUHIOHFWDQFHIURPWKH VDPSOH7KHSORWWHG5 P

(110) 5ŠUDWLRUDLVHVUDSLGO\LQWKHEHJLQQLQJDQGWKHQ DV\PSWRWLFDOO\UHDFKHVXQLW\DWKLJKVDPSOHPDVV7KHVORSHRIWKHFXUYHGHFUHDVHVDV WKHSRZGHUPDVVSHUDUHDLQFUHDVHVZKLFKDJUHHVZLWKWKHJHQHUDOH[SHFWDWLRQWKDW SRZGHUOD\HUVFORVHUWRWKHVXUIDFHFRQWULEXWHPRUHWRWKHWRWDOUHIOHFWLRQWKDQOD\HUV GHHSHUZLWKLQWKHSRZGHUEHG)XUWKHUPRUHWKHFRQWULEXWLRQIURPHDFKOD\HUFDQEH TXDQWLILHG)RUH[DPSOHLWFDQEHVHHQLQ)LJXUHWKDWZKHQWKHSRZGHUPDVV LQFUHDVHVIURPPJFP WRPJFP WKHUHIOHFWDQFHDWQPLVLQFUHDVHG IURPWRRI5Š7KLVLPSOLHVWKDWWKHFRQWULEXWLRQIURPWKHRXWHUPRVW PJFP OD\HULVRIWKHWRWDOUHIOHFWDQFHDQGWKDWWKHXQGHUO\LQJ± PJFP OD\HURQO\FRQWULEXWHVRIWKHWRWDOUHIOHFWDQFH7KLVJHQHUDOUHODWLRQ VKRXOGEHNHSWLQPLQGZKHQWKHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HLVGLVFXVVHG . . . . . )LJXUH5HIOHFWDQFHDVDIXQFWLRQRIVDPSOHPDVVSHUXQLWDUHDIRUILOPFRDWHG SHOOHWVDWQPDFFRUGLQJWRWKH(57PHWKRG VROLGOLQH

(111) DQGWKH9/7PHWKRG GDVKHGOLQH

(112) >3DSHU,,@  7KHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHPDVVSHUXQLWDUHDIRUWZRPRGHOVDPSOHVPLFURFU\VWDOOLQH FHOOXORVHDQGILOPFRDWHGSHOOHWVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHWZRPHWKRGVLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH 7KHVHWZRPDWHULDOVZHUHVHOHFWHGDVPRGHOPDWHULDOVGXULQJWKHVHVWXGLHVWR UHSUHVHQWW\SLFDOSKDUPDFHXWLFDOILQHDQGFRDUVHSRZGHUVUHVSHFWLYHO\8VLQJWKH SRZGHUGHQVLWLHVWKHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHPDVVSHUXQLWDUHD PJFP

(113) ZDVWUDQVIRUPHG . . ±±.

(114) WRDQHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHWKLFNQHVV PP

(115) VKRZQDVWKHULJKWRUGLQDWH,WLVFOHDUWKDWWKH WZRPHWKRGVDJUHHZHOOWKHGLIIHUHQFHVDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHGWREHVLJQLILFDQWVHH 3DSHU,,IRUDGHWDLOHGGLVFXVVLRQ7KHDSSOLFDEOHZDYHOHQJWKUDQJHRIWKH9/7 PHWKRGLVOLPLWHGE\WKHLPSOLFLWUHTXLUHPHQWWKDWWKHWKLQQHVWOD\HUVPHDVXUHGPXVW EHWKLQQHUWKDQWKHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]H,WZDVH[HPSOLILHGLQ)LJXUH F

(116) DQG G

(117)  WKDWHVWLPDWLRQRIHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HE\WKH9/7PHWKRGLVQRWSRVVLEOHDWORQJHU ZDYHOHQJWKV,QFRQWUDVWWKH(57PHWKRGFDQEHFRPHXQUHOLDEOHLQUHJLRQVRIODUJH HIIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HGXHWRLQFUHDVHGQXPHULFDOHUURUSURSDJDWLRQZKHQWKHDOEHGR LVFORVHWRXQLW\ . )LJXUH(IIHFWLYHVDPSOHVL]HIRUILOPFRDWHGSHOOHWV D

(118) DQGPLFURFU\VWDOOLQH FHOOXORVH E

(119) FDOFXODWHGXVLQJWKH(57PHWKRG VROLGOLQH

(120) DQGWKH9/7PHWKRG GDVKHGOLQH

(121) >3DSHU,,@7KHOHIWRUGLQDWHJLYHVWKHVDPSOHPDVVSHUXQLWDUHDDQG WKHULJKWRUGLQDWHWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHWKLFNQHVV  7KHHIIHFWLYHPDVVVDPSOHGE\DQ1,5ILEHURSWLFUHIOHFWLRQSUREHLVJLYHQE\WKH HIIHFWLYHLOOXPLQDWHGDUHDPXOWLSOLHGZLWKWKHHIIHFWLYHVDPSOHGPDVVSHUXQLWDUHD$V DQH[DPSOHWKHLOOXPLQDWHGVSRWRIDFRPPRQILEHURSWLFSUREHZDVUHSRUWHGWRKDYH DGLDPHWHURIFP>@DQGWKXVDQDUHDRIFP ,QPLFURFU\VWDOOLQHFHOOXORVH 0&&

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±±.

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ÉRI1,56\VWHPV+HUHVDPSOHPRYHPHQWLVLQWURGXFHGLQ RUGHUWRLQFUHDVHWKHDUHDVDPSOHGE\WKHLQVWUXPHQW 7KHLOOXPLQDWHGVDPSOHDUHDRIDQ1,5GLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQLQVWUXPHQWLVXVXDOO\LQ WKHRUGHURIFP IRUDODERUDWRU\LQVWUXPHQWDQG±FP ZKHQDILEHURSWLF SUREHLVXVHG:KHQKHWHURJHQHRXVVDPSOHVDUHWREHDQDO\]HGWKHVDPSOHVL]HLV HVVHQWLDO7KLVZDVEULHIO\GLVFXVVHGSUHYLRXVO\LQ&KDSWHU S

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±±.

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±±.

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

(127) $0RGHOV\VWHPRIELQDU\FKDUDFWHULVWLFVFRQVLVWLQJRI TXDGUDQWVRISDSHUDQGSRO\VW\UHQHVWXGLHGGXULQJURWDWLRQWRVLPXODWHD KHWHURJHQHRXVELQDU\PL[WXUH%0HDVXUHPHQWVRQPRYLQJSRZGHUVVWXGLHGE\ LPPHUVLQJWKHSUREHLQGLIIHUHQWPRGHOSRZGHUV  0HDVXUHPHQWVRQPRYLQJSRZGHUVZDVDFFRPSOLVKHGE\SODFLQJDFRQWDLQHUZLWK SRZGHURQWKHURWDWLQJGLVFDQGLPPHUVLQJDGLIIXVHUHIOHFWLRQSUREHLQWRWKH FRQWDLQHUVHH)LJXUH%7KHVDPSOHYHORFLWLHVXVHGLQWKHH[SHULPHQWVZHUHLQWKH UDQJH±PV 7KHXSSHUOLPLWRIPV ZDVVHWE\WKHOLPLWDWLRQVRIWKH H[SHULPHQWDOVHWXS . . %HVLGHVWKHURWDWLQJGLVFDSSDUDWXVDVWURERVFRSHZDVDOVRXVHGLQWKH FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRILQVWUXPHQWUHVSRQVHZLWKUHVSHFWWRWLPHGHSHQGHQWVLJQDOV%\ XVLQJVWURERVFRSHOLJKWSXOVHVIODVKLQJDWIRUH[DPSOH+]WKHGDWDDFTXLVLWLRQ UDWHRIWKHVSHFWURPHWHUVFRXOGEHGHWHUPLQHG. . ±±.

(128) $QDO\]LQJPRYLQJVDPSOHVZLWKDGLVSHUVLYHVSHFWURPHWHU  ,QWKHSDSHUE\$QGHUVVRQHWDO>@WKHHIIHFWRIVDPSOHPRYHPHQWRQ VSHFWUDOUHVSRQVHIRUDGLVSHUVLYHPHFKDQLFDOO\VFDQQLQJJUDWLQJVSHFWURPHWHUZDV LQYHVWLJDWHG%\XVLQJWKHVWURERVFRSHLWZDVIRXQGWKDWWKHWLPHWRREWDLQDVLQJOH VFDQVSHFWUXPLQWKH±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

(129) DQGILQH G  P

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±±.

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

(132)  QRUPDOSRO\VW\UHQHLQWHUIHURJUDP LL

(133) FKDQJHIURPSDSHUWRSRO\VW\UHQH LLL

(134) FKDQJH IURPSRO\VW\UHQHWRSDSHU%7ZHQW\FRQVHFXWLYHORJ5VSHFWUD  +RZHYHUZKHQWKHVHLQWHUIHURJUDPVZHUHWUDQVIRUPHGWRORJ5 VSHFWUDQR HIIHFWRIWKHVXGGHQFKDQJHVZDVREVHUYHGVHH)LJXUH%7KHVSHFWUDIDOOLQWRWZR PDLQJURXSVSDSHUDQGSRO\VW\UHQH$OVRWKHSDSHUVSHFWUDDUHGLYLGHGLQWRWZRVXE JURXSVGXHWRGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHWZRSDSHUTXDGUDQWVLQWKHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQ WKHSUREHWLSDQGWKHSDSHUVXUIDFH)XUWKHUPRUHWKHXVXDOHIIHFWRIVFDWWHULQJLV SUHVHQW3UHSURFHVVLQJE\PXOWLSOLFDWLYHVLJQDOFRUUHFWLRQ 06&

(135) UHPRYHGWKH GLIIHUHQFHVLQRIIVHWDQGVORSHEHWZHHQWKHVSHFWUD$IWHU06&SUHSURFHVVLQJWKHGDWD ZHUHH[DPLQHGE\3&$2QO\RQHV\VWHPDWLFSULQFLSDOFRPSRQHQWZDVIRXQGDQGLW FRXOGEHDWWULEXWHGWRGHVFULEHWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQSDSHUDQGSRO\VW\UHQH7KHVH UHVXOWVVKRZWKDWWKHRQO\V\VWHPDWLFYDULDWLRQSUHVHQWLQWKHGDWDVHWDIWHU06& SUHSURFHVVLQJLVUHODWHGWRWKHSDSHUSRO\VW\UHQHVDPSOHDQGWKDWQRXQH[SHFWHG VSHFWUDOIHDWXUHVDUHFUHDWHGDVDFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHVDPSOHPRYHPHQW . . ±±.

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±±.

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±±.

(138) . . ±±.

(139) ,QOLQHDQDO\VLVRIELQDU\SRZGHUPL[WXUHV 7KHUHDUHQXPHURXVH[DPSOHVRIWKHXVHRI1,5LQTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVIRU H[DPSOHIRUWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIFRQWHQWRIH[FLSLHQWVDQGDFWLYHFRPSRXQGVLQ SKDUPDFHXWLFDOSRZGHUPL[WXUHV VHH6HFWLRQ

References

Related documents

Coupling an optical frequency comb to the cavity provided a broadband spectral bandwidth with high precision to measure the absorption of several molecular species

The full spectra data and characteristic variables determined by different variable selection methods were respectively developed to establish PLS models such as

Noise-immune cavity-enhanced optical heterodyne molecular spectrometry (NICE-OHMS) is a technique for ultra-sensitive detection of molecular absorption and dispersion. For highest

LJ KNM OQP9M RTSVUXWZY0[ KNM\]S_^9R`Pba cdOXaAWY0egf!^9RTShR`ijRTMkOlJ0MUmK!fBOnYhOpopa

Stereology deals with the interpretation of the three-dimensional structures by means of the two-dimensional sections or projections (Nemati, 2000). This assumption is meaningful

As we saw in Section 4, contention for shared off-chip memory resources can result in both reduced bandwidth and increased latencies, at different points in the mem- ory

The scope of these test cases and measures is to be applicable to a wide range of methods and approaches to the tyre to road friction estimation problem, e.g., from force and

The spectrometer is modified with an extension ((1) in Fig. Note that the measured spot is smaller than the light spot to ensure that the spectrometer measurements are restricted