Fuels for Tomorrow
Future Availability and
Acceptability of World Energy Resources Suitable for Marine, Power Generation and
Locomotive Applications Covered by CIMAC
CIMAC Collin Trust Lecture
Helmut List AVL List GmbH
24th May 2007
24.05.2007 | Page 2
Agenda
What is Driving the Fuel Situation?
Which Fuels Options do We Have?
Engine Technology for Future Fuels
Reviewing the Key Issues
Conclusions
24.05.2007 | Page 3
Agenda
What is Driving the Fuel Situation?
Which Fuels Options do We Have?
Engine Technology for Future Fuels
Reviewing the Key Issues
Conclusions
24.05.2007 | Page 4
Main Drivers of the Fuel Situation
Fuels of Tomorrow
1. Economic and
Demographic Growth
2. Fuel Supply Dynamics
4. Energy Strategies
3. Emissions & Climate Change
24.05.2007 | Page 5
Driver 1: Economic and Demographic Growth 2007 - 2030
World Population Growing by 25% towards 8 bn.
GDP Increasing 80%
Energy Consumption
Increasing by 35%. Surpassing in Non OECD Countries
Western Countries
Source: Exxon Mobil
24.05.2007 | Page 6
Current Oil Resource/ Production Ratio (R/P): 40 Years
Middle East Oil Reserves 62% of Total
Access to Most of Oil Reserves is Restricted
Geopolitical Instability in the Areas of the Largest Oil Reserves
It Seems to have Settled that the Level of Cost of Crude Oil Remains Above $ 60/Barrel
Gas R/P Ratio: 70 Years
Largest Gas Reserves Eurasia, Middle East (75% of Total)
Gas Supply Crisis 2006 Uncovered Vulnerability of Safe Gas Supply
Coal is Taking an Important Share in the Energy Supply
Driver 2: Fuel Supply Dynamics
24.05.2007 | Page 7
World Primary Energy Demand Forecast Until 2030
Oil
Other Renewables Nuclear
Gas
Coal Biomass
Source: OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
24.05.2007 | Page 8
Driver 3: Emissions & Impact on Climate Change
Greenhouse Effect (CO2 Emissions +55% Until 2030)
Source: OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
24.05.2007 | Page 9
Driver 3: Emissions & Impact on Climate Change
China Overtakes US in 2010 in Pollutant Emissions Per Capita
Transportation is Taking the Major Share of Emissions (1.8% P/A Increase)
Ships Major Pollutant Contributors Unless Drastic Change Implemented
Estimated Percentage of Ships‘ Contribution to Pollution in the US 2030:
NOx 28% / PM 25% / SOx 80%
(Source: US 48 States Inventories Incl. Nonroad)
Source: OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
24.05.2007 | Page 10
Emission Limits for Marine Engines
15001500 20002000 00
55 1010 1515
NONO
– g/kWh – g/kWhxx
IMO II – 2-3.5g/kWh
500500 10001000 Engine
Engine speedspeed – – rpmrpm 0
0
IMO Tier II: ~30% NOx Reduction Expected for 2011
IMO Tier III in 2015, Best Available Technologies with Aftertreatment
US: EPA Tier 2 and Proposed Tier 3 and Tier 4 80-85% NOx Reduction
Low Sulphur Caps in Implementation or Under Evaluation IMO-limit
EPA T2 Proposal Categ. III, HC and CO Limits
EPA T4 Proposals for 2016 and <30
L/Cyl.
NOx< 1.8 g/kWh PM <0.04-0.08
g/kWh
Source: EPA, Int. Maritime Org.
24.05.2007 | Page 11
4 6 8 10 12
PM (g/kWh)
0.4
2 0.2
NOx (g/kWh) UIC 2003
EU Stage IIIA 2009
US EPA T2 2005 Line Haul
US T3 EPA 2012 Proposal
*) HC+NOx EU Stage IIIB* 2012
US EPA T4 2015 Proposal
Emission Limits Locomotive with Focus on PM and NOx
Source: EPA
24.05.2007 | Page 12
Driver 4: National and Regional Energy Strategies
EU: Energy Review 2007
5.75% Share of Biofuels in 2012
Reduce Green House Gas by 20% Until 2020 (Base: 1990)
Increase Portion of Renewable Energy to 20%
US &Canada :
US Energy Policy Act 2005
DOE Financial Assistance
Province of Ontario: 5%v Ethanol Obligation by 2007
24.05.2007 | Page 13
Agenda
What is Driving the Fuel Situation?
Which Fuels Options do We Have?
Engine Technology for Future Fuels
Reviewing the Key Issues
Conclusions
24.05.2007 | Page 14
Fuels Options for Marine, Electric Power and Locomotive Engines
Fossil Fuels
HFO
Distillate
Natural Gas
LNG
LPG
Derivate Fuels
Hydrogen from Nat. Gas or Electrolysis
Coal to Liquid (CtL)
Other Synfuels Biofuels
Biomass to Gas (BtG)
Biomass to Liquid (BtL)
Bio Hydrogen
Bio-DME*)
*) DME can be generated also from Fossil Fuels
24.05.2007 | Page 15
In Implementation
MARPOL/SECA Sulphur Caps 2007 1.5%
for Baltic and North Sea
EU Directive 2005 For Ferries All EU Ports 1.5%
IMO Evaluation
Sulphur Cap for HFO 1.5% in 2010 and 0.5% in 2015
Refinery New Investment Up to G€ 13
Incentive to Switch to Low Sulphur Fuel is Low
The Option: HFO Ban?
Source: CONCAWE
Economic Ecologic Consequences of Low Sulphur Fuels
Desulphurization Increases Cost of HFO
> €62/Ton
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
All RMF @ 1.5% S
All RMF @ 0.5% S
€/t
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
MARPOL EU
Directive
€/t
24.05.2007 | Page 16
Fossil Fuels: Natural Gas
Natural Gas Playing a Major Role in the Energy Supply (~25% of the W/W Primary Energy Consumption)
Application: Power Generation, CHP but Also for Marine Engines (15% of
Consumption in 2030 Transported as LNG/LPG)
CO2 Emissions Reduced by ~20%
SOx ? 0%
Potential for “Near Zero” NOx and PM Emissions
24.05.2007 | Page 17
Proved Natural Gas Reserves at End 2005
Source: BP
24.05.2007 | Page 18
Biofuels
1) First Generation Biomass to Liquid Available Today:
Vegetable Oil ? Biodiesel 100% or Blends with Diesel Oil (5 - 30%)
Capacity to Reduce CO2 Impact by Up to 50%
Bioethanol Used in Gasoline Engines
2) Second Generation Biomass to Liquid (BtL) Using Non Food Feed Stock:
Fischer Tropsch Synthesis to Diesel
CO2 Impact Reduced by Up to 90%
Industrial Production Still 10 Years Ahead
24.05.2007 | Page 19
Biofuels: The Cost/Benefit Trade Off
Cost as Consumed in EU, €, assuming Oil @$ 60/Barrel in €-
toe)
diesel biodiesel from rape
second generation:
BTL from farmed wood
498
873
1325
Source: Maria Fuentes EU Strategy for Biofuels (EU Commission)
Green House Emissions tCO2 eq/toe
diesel biodiesel from rape
second generation:
BTL from farmed wood
3,7
2
0,7
24.05.2007 | Page 20
Gaseous Biofuels
2) Biomass to Gas
Highest Energy Output / ha Cultivated Surface
Low CO2 Impact
Stationary Plants for Powergen and Cogen
Source: e-on / Ruhrgas
0 500 1000 1500
Diesel CNG Biodiesel Biogas
CO2 g/kWh
24.05.2007 | Page 21
Production Potential of Biomass
Source: GTZ, Presentation Dr. Elke Foerster 2006 Kraftstoffe der Zukunft
Countries with potential in biomass production for fuels
24.05.2007 | Page 22
Agenda
What is Driving the Fuel Situation?
Which Fuels Options do We Have?
Engine Technology for Future Fuels
Reviewing the Key Issues
Conclusions
24.05.2007 | Page 23
9 9
Biogas
9 9
9
Blend HFO or Dist. w. Biof.
9 9
Low Sulfur HFO
9 9
1. Gen. Biomass to Liq. Or Gas
9 9
2. Gen. Biomass to Liq. Or Gas
9 9
9
Natural Gas, LNG/LPG
High Speed
¾ Marine
¾ Power Gen, Industr.
¾ Locomotive Medium Speed
¾ Marine
¾ Power Gen
¾ Locomotive Slow Speed
¾ Marine
¾ Power Gen
Fuel
9 9
Bio Hydrogen or Other Source
9 9
9
Low Sulfur Distillate
Fuels for Tomorrow: Possible Options by Application
24.05.2007 | Page 24
Focus
Reducing CO2 Impact
Control Low Sulfur Fuels
Impact Reducing
NOx / PM /Smoke
Potential Improvement
Up to 55-60%
Mech. w. Waste Heat Recovery
CHP ~80-85%
Maintain &
Improve Reliability
95%
Direction
Fuel Efficiency
Control Wear of Critical Components
Combustion
&
Aftertreatment
Technology Outlook for Engines Using HFO and Distillates
24.05.2007 | Page 25
150.00 160.00 170.00 180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
BSFC g/kWh
Slow Speed
Med. Speed
High Speed
165-170 185-190
150-155
CO2 Reduction: Through Continuous Improvement of Fuel Efficiency
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
24.05.2007 | Page 26
-100.00%
-80.00%
-60.00%
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
Nox Reduction
BSFC
Gain/Penalty
Wet Methods
Emulsion
Dir Water Injection
HAM
After- treatment
SCR Low NOx
Combustion
Heat Release Rate
Common Rail
Miller and Var.
Valve Timing
+3-6% -2%
+0-2%
-5-30%
-25-50%
The Issue: Trade-Off NOx Reduction vs. Cost
NOx Reduction: Making the Optimum Choice, From Low NOx Combustion to Aftertreatment
-85-90%
24.05.2007 | Page 27
PM [g/kWh]
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
N OX [g /k W h ]
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
U S T ier II 2005
UIC III 2008
U S T ie r IV P has e-in nonroad 2011
Combined NOx & PM Reduction Through System Integration of Key Technologies
EGR High Inj.
Pressure Multiple
Injections Diesel Part. Filter ?
Miller Optimized Inj.
Pressure Multiple
Injections
Source: AVL Research Locomotive
Locomotive Stage IIIB 2012
US T4 Loco 2015
SCR w_/ O DPF
24.05.2007 | Page 28
Technology Outlook for Engines Using Natural Gas
Focus
Reducing CO2 Impact
Reduce First Cost
Reducing NOx / PM / HC
and CO
Potential Improvement
Efficiency Up to 50% , With CHP ~80-85%
BMEP Towards 27 bar
Reduction by 99%
Direction
Fuel Efficiency
Raise Power Density to Diesel Level Combustion
&
Aftertreatment
24.05.2007 | Page 29
The local plasma formation process is independent The local plasma formation process is independent
from highly turbulent flow regimes.
from highly turbulent flow regimes.
2000 [rpm], WOT 2000 [rpm], WOT
Conventional Spark Plug Conventional Spark Plug
Ignition Laser Ignition Laser
Source: AVL Research
Laser Ignition for Gas: Enabler for High Power Density
24.05.2007 | Page 30 Source: AVL Research
Advanced Combustion Development Methods are Key
24.05.2007 | Page 31
Combustion System Must Be “Tailored” to Fuel Spec.
Fuel Injection strategy adapted to Fuel Spec.
Common Rail System Most Suitable
Premixed Combustion at Part Load
Closed Loop Combustion Control (AVL EmIQ)
EGR
Air System Matched to Fuel Specification
Source: NICE Project AVL/FEV/DC/Volvo/
Renault/VW/CRF
Source: AVL Research
Key Technologies for Burning Future Biofuels in Diesel Engines
24.05.2007 | Page 32
Synfuels, Opportunity to Meet Tighter Emission Limits: Dymethylether (DME)
Particulates [g/kW.hr]
1.0
0.8
0.6 0.4
8 6
2 4
NOx [g/kW.hr]
0 0.2
CO [g/kW.hr]
10.0 8.0
6.0 4.0 2.0
10 12 14 16
Tier 0 (1973) Tier 1 (2002) Tier 2 (2005)
Tier 4Prop.(2015)
Today’s Locomotives
DME + Oxicat Eliminates Need for DPF
CO2 Red. By 80% if Produced From Biomass
Competitive Cost
Technology Challenge:
Fuel System/Materials
Source: AVL Research
Tier 3Prop.(2012)
DME + EGR + Oxicat
24.05.2007 | Page 33
Agenda
What is Driving the Fuel Situation?
Which Fuels Options do We Have?
Engine Technology for Future Fuels
Reviewing the Key Issues
Conclusions
24.05.2007 | Page 34
Sustainability Aspects of Future Fuels
Fossi Fuels
• How Far
Reaching Are the
Worldwide Reserves of Crude Oil?
• Are Low Sulphur Residues (HFO)
Economically Sustainable?
Derivate Fuels
• Economics and Storage of Hydrogen Fuel?
• True Impact on CO2
Emissions?
Biofuels
• Impact of Biofuels on Farmland, Forest and Food Chain?
• True Impact of Biofuels on CO2
Emissions?
• Further Cost Reduction?
• Other Usage?
24.05.2007 | Page 35
Taking a Multi- Stakeholder Approach: Producers / Industry and Trade / Public Sector / NGOs
Creating the Right Political and Economical Environment:
Taxes / Standards / Trade Rules
CO2 Credits
Investing in R&D and New Infrastructures
Creating the Favorable Political and
Economical Environment
24.05.2007 | Page 36
Substitution Technologies: Fuel Cells
Clean, Efficient, Competitive
Distributed Power Quiet Power
Generation APU in Harbor
Reduced Emissions
H2-O2 PEMFC without Exhaust Hybrid Fuel Cell
Battery Electric Solutions
Additional Features for Customer Value
Process Efficiency = 70% @ 2 MW
Improved Efficiency New Products
and R&D Activities
Electric Traction in Mines w/o
Battery
24.05.2007 | Page 37
Agenda
What is Driving the Fuel Situation?
Which Fuels Options do We Have?
Reviewing the Key Issues
Conclusions
24.05.2007 | Page 38
A Time Horizon for Future Fuels
Natural gas:
Oil (HFO, Distillates)
Biofuels
Hydrogen and Other Synfuels
2100 2200
Now
24.05.2007 | Page 39
Predominant Energy Sources By Application:
Marine: Heavy Fuels and Distillates, LNG/LPG
Power Generation: Gas and Biofuels (Liquid and Gas)
Locomotives: Liquid Fuels
(Fossils, Biofuels) and Syntethic Fuels
24.05.2007 | Page 40
