• No results found



VRFLDO HIIHFWV RQ WKH WUDQVQDWLRQDO UXUDO SUHFDULDW  ZRXOG IRFXV RQ UHJXODWLQJ WKH

FRQVXPSWLRQRQWKHVLGHRIHQHUJ\GHPDQG,PSRUWDQWO\VFDOLQJXSLQLWLDWLYHVWKDW

UHGXFH HQHUJ\ GHPDQG LQ WUDQVSRUW ZRXOG UHTXLUH D JUDGXDO VKLIW DZD\ IURP

WUDQVSRUWSULFHVVHWE\PDUNHWVWRZDUGVRWKHUIRUPVRIVRFLDOUHODWLRQV:KHUHIRU

H[DPSOHWUDQVSRUWVHUYLFHVZRXOGEHSURYLGHGRQWKHEDVLVRIQRQPDUNHWEDVHG

SULQFLSOHV,DUJXHWKDWWKLVDSSURDFKFRQVWLWXWHVWKHEDVLVIRUDviable alternative

WRWKHGXDOSUREOHPWKDWOLTXLGELRIXHOVUHSUHVHQW WKDWUHFRJQL]HVHFRORJLFDOOLPLWV

DQGWKHVFLHQWLILFNQRZOHGJHDYDLODEOHRQµFOLPDWHFKDQJHPLWLJDWLRQ¶ LQFOXGLQJWKH

FULWLTXH RI HFRORJLFDO PRGHUQL]DWLRQ  ,W DOVR VXJJHVWV WKDW PXFK QHHGHG IXWXUH

UHVHDUFKFDQEHQHILWIURPWKHZRUNLQWKLVWKHVLV$WWKHVDPHWLPHUHGXFHGGHPDQG

RIODQGEDVHGUHVRXUFHVLQWKHJOREDO1RUWKZRXOGDOVRUHGXFHWKHHFRQRPLFSUHVVXUH

WKDW DGYHUVHO\ DIIHFWV WKH ODQG GHSHQGHQW WUDQVQDWLRQDO UXUDO SUHFDULDW DW OHDVW LQ

WHUULWRULHV WKDW SXUVXH QHROLEHUDO GHYHORSPHQWDOLVP $V UHJDUGV 7DQ]DQLD ,

VXJJHVWHGFRQWLQXHGVWUXJJOHVDJDLQVWQHROLEHUDOGHYHORSPHQWDOLVPDVDdesirable alternativeIRUDYRLGLQJWKHSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFG\QDPLFLQZKLFKODQGLQYHVWPHQWV

SUHGRPLQDWHO\UHVXOWLQGLVSRVVHVVLRQRIWKHODUJHO\ODQGGHSHQGHQWUXUDOSRSXODWLRQ

ZLWKRXW7KLVZLOOREYLRXVO\KDYHDPSOHVRFLDOEHQHILWV

7KHRUL]LQJWKHHQHUJ\JHRJUDSKLHVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH



FRQGXFWLQJWKHVDPHDPRXQWRIPHFKDQLFDOZRUNZKLFKXQGHUPLQHVWKHLUSRWHQWLDO

IRUGHOLYHULQJ*+*HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQV

:LWKLQWKHJHRKLVWRULFDOFRQWH[WRIXQHYHQJHRJUDSKLFDOGHYHORSPHQW,VKRZHG

KRZWKHPRUHVSHFLILFVSDWLDOUHODWLRQVLPSRVHGRQFRPPRGLW\SURGXFWLRQE\WKH

PDWHULDOLW\ RI HQHUJ\ LQWHUVHFWV ZLWK WKH PRUH JHQHUDO VSDWLDOUHODWLRQV RI FDSLWDO

DFFXPXODWLRQ,QWKHFRQWH[WRIWUDQVSRUWHQHUJ\ERWKSDWKGHSHQGHQF\RISK\VLFDO

LQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGLQVWLWXWLRQVDIIHFWHGPDWHULDOVRFLDOSUDFWLVHV±EHLWLQWHUPVRI

WKHW\SHVRIHQHUJ\FRPPRGLWLHVEHLQJGHOLYHUHGWRPDUNHWVRULQWHUPVRIWKHVFRSH

IRUFKDQJH DOWKRXJKWKHODWWHUHVSHFLDOO\FROOHFWLYHDFWLRQIRUFKDQJHZDVQRWP\

IRFXV 

$ FRQVHTXHQFH KLJKOLJKWHG LQ P\ DQDO\VLV ZDV WKDW WHUULWRULDO DOOLDQFHV ZLWK

SROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFFDSDFLW\WRPRELOL]HUHVRXUFHVKDGWKHSRZHUWRVKDSHWKHVRFLDO

UHODWLRQV LQYROYHG LQ WKH H[WUDFWLRQ SURGXFWLRQ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI HQHUJ\

FRPPRGLWLHV $ SUHGLFWDEOH RXWFRPH RI WKLV G\QDPLF LV WKDW LI VXUSOXV LV VKLIWHG

WRZDUGVVXSSRUWLQJQRQIRVVLOIXHOEDVHGHQHUJ\FRPPRGLWLHV PRUHVRWKHFDVHIRU

µELRPDVV¶ EXW DOVR WKH FDVH IRU RWKHU µUHQHZDEOHV¶  FDSLWDO ZLOO IXUWKHU PRELOL]H

WRZDUGVODQG ZKLFKLVVFDUFHLQDEVROXWHWHUPV DQGODQGEDVHGUHVRXUFHVZKHUH

HQHUJ\FDQEHVRXUFHGIURP±LILWLVSURILWDEOHHQRXJK$SUHGLFWDEOHFRQVHTXHQFH

XQGHU QHROLEHUDOLVP LV WKDW FDSLWDOLVW VRFLDO UHODWLRQV RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG H[FKDQJH

WKDWIRFXVRQLQWHQVLI\LQJODQGXVHPD\EHDSSOLHGRQWRDOUHDG\H[LVWLQJVWUXJJOHV

RYHU ODQG DQG DFFXPXODWLRQ E\ GLVSRVVHVVLRQ ZKLFK KDV SDUWLFXODUO\ VLJQLILFDQW

HIIHFWVRQ1RUWK6RXWKDQGXUEDQUXUDOG\QDPLFVGXHWRWKHKLVWRULFDOEDFNGURSRI

XQHYHQJHRJUDSKLFDOGHYHORSPHQW

)XWXUHUHVHDUFK

+DYLQJPDGHWKHVHWKHRUHWLFDOFRQWULEXWLRQ,ZRXOGOLNHWRKLJKOLJKWWZRSRVVLEOH

DYHQXHVIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFKRQHQHUJ\DQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHPLWLJDWLRQ

)LUVW LI IRVVLO IXHOV DUH WR EH SKDVHG RXW DQG SDUWO\ UHSODFHG ZLWK RWKHU HQHUJ\

VRXUFHV WKDWFDQUHGXFHWKHWRWDODPRXQWRI*+*HPLVVLRQV ZHFDQH[SHFWFHUWDLQ

VSDWLRWHPSRUDO G\QDPLFV QRW OHDVW VWUXJJOHV RYHU ODQG  LQ UXUDO DUHDV ,Q WKLV

FRQWH[WWKHLQVWLWXWLRQVWKDWJXLGHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVHVDURXQGODQGXVHDUH

OLNHO\WREHFRPHVXEMHFWVRIDGGLWLRQDOHFRQRPLFLQWHUHVWVDQGSUHVVXUH7RDVVXUH

VRFLDOO\EHQHILFLDODQGHFRORJLFDOO\FRQYLQFLQJRXWFRPHVIURPWKHVHSURFHVVHVWKH

LQVWLWXWLRQVPD\QHHGWREHUHHQYLVLRQHGWREHWWHUILWWKHQDWXUHVRFLHW\LQWHUDFWLRQV

WKDW VFLHQFH KDV UHYHDOHG 7KHUHIRUH PRUH UHVHDUFK LV QHHGHG RQ WKH PHVV\



)RUH[DPSOHKRZSHUVLVWHQWVRFLDOSUREOHPVVXFKDVSRYHUW\DQGLQHTXDOLW\KXQJHUDQG

PDOQXWULWLRQDQGFRUUXSWLRQDUHH[DFHUEDWHGE\VXVWDLQDELOLW\FKDOOHQJHVVXFKDVFOLPDWHFKDQJH

ELRGLYHUVLW\ORVVDQGZDWHUVFDUFLW\



VROXWLRQVWRWKHGLOHPPDRIKRZLQVWLWXWLRQVFDQEHGHVLJQHGWRDOORFDWHWKHFRVWV

DQGEHQHILWVRIVFDUFHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHV±ERWKLQWKHJOREDO1RUWKDQGWKHJOREDO

6RXWK

6HFRQGLIZHDFFHSWWKHDUJXPHQWWKDWviable alternativesWRPLWLJDWLRQRIWUDQVSRUW

HPLVVLRQV KDYH WR IRFXV RQ FUHDWLQJ LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG VRFLDO VWUXFWXUHV WKDW UHGXFH

WUDQVSRUW HQHUJ\ GHPDQG WKHQ IXUWKHU UHVHDUFK RQ WKH achievability RI WKLV

DOWHUQDWLYHLVUHOHYDQW±WRFUHDWHWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUDQGWKHORQJWHUPVXSSRUWRILW

$GYDQFLQJDQHPDQFLSDWRU\VXVWDLQDELOLW\VFLHQFH

, KDYH VRXJKW WR DGYDQFH WKH FULWLFDO SUREOHPVROYLQJ DJHQGD WKDW H[LVWV LQ

VXVWDLQDELOLW\ VFLHQFH E\ GHYHORSLQJ D PHWDWKHRUHWLFDO DSSURDFK WKDW FRPELQHV

VXVWDLQDELOLW\VFLHQFHZLWK&5DQG(667KHUDWLRQDOHEHKLQGWKLVGHFLVLRQZDVWKDW

,VDZWKHQHHGIRUDPRUHV\VWHPDWLFZD\WRDSSURDFKVRFLDOFKDQJHLQVFLHQFHRQ

QDWXUHVRFLHW\LQWHUDFWLRQV&5DOORZHGPHWRDVNUHDOLVWTXHVWLRQVDERXWDQDWXUDO

ZRUOG WKDW FRH[LVWV ZLWK D VRFLDO ZRUOG ZKHUH FDXVDOLW\ RFFXUV LQ VSHFLILF JHR

KLVWRULFDO FRQWH[WV (66 DOORZHG PH WR XQGHUVWDQG FDXVDOLW\ DV URRWHG LQ VRFLDO

UHODWLRQV DQG SURYLGHG PH ZLWK RUJDQL]LQJ SULQFLSOHV WKDW FRXOG V\VWHPDWL]H WKH

SURGXFWLRQRIVFLHQWLILFNQRZOHGJHWKDWVHHNVHQYLVLRQDQGZRUNWRZDUGVFKDQJHLQ

WKHZRUOG,QP\VSHFLILFUHVHDUFKVHWWLQJWKLVFULWLFDODSSURDFKWRVRFLDOVFLHQFH

EHQHILWHG IURP 1DQF\ )UDVHU¶V UHDVRQLQJ ZKLFK LQVSLUHG P\ HSLVWHPRORJLFDO

WKLQNLQJRQVFDODULVVXHVRIHPDQFLSDWLRQLQYROYHGLQJOREDOSKHQRPHQD VXFKDV

FOLPDWHFKDQJHJOREDOL]LQJFRPPRGLW\SURGXFWLRQDQGUHJLRQDOUHJXODWLRQ 7KLV

ZDV LPSRUWDQW IRU P\ UHVHDUFK SURFHVV DV LW DOORZHG PH WR UHDFK D IXOOHU

XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH GXDO SUREOHP RI OLTXLG ELRIXHOV ZKHQ , PRYHG EH\RQG WKH

LQGLYLGXDO QDWLRQVWDWH0RUHRYHU , PRGLILHG (66 ZLWK &5 E\ DGRSWLQJ D PRUH

LPPDQHQWPRGHRIFULWLTXHDQGXVHGWKLVFRPELQDWLRQWRFRPSOHWHP\ZRUNZLWKLQ

WKHHPHUJLQJLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\WUDGLWLRQRIVXVWDLQDELOLW\VFLHQFH ZKLFKSURYLGHG

PHZLWKWRROVPHWKRGVDQGSURFHGXUHVIRUGRLQJLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\UHVHDUFK 

7KHKLVWRULFDODSSURDFKWRNQRZOHGJHSURGXFWLRQHPEHGGHGLQP\PHWDWKHRU\KDV

SOD\HGDFUXFLDOUROHLQWKHDQDO\VLV)RUH[DPSOH,ZRXOGQRWKDYHEHHQDEOHWR

H[SODLQWKHHPHUJHQWSURSHUWLHVRIOLTXLGELRIXHOPDUNHWVKDG,QRWH[DPLQHGWKH

KLVWRULFDOWUDMHFWRULHVRI(8ELRIXHOUHJXODWLRQQHROLEHUDOGHYHORSPHQWSUDFWLVHVLQ

7DQ]DQLDDQGWKHWUDQVSRUWHQHUJ\ODQGVFDSHLQ6ZHGHQ%\DVNLQJTXHVWLRQVDERXW

JHRKLVWRULFDOFRQWH[WV,FRXOGH[SORUHWKHUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQWHUULWRULHVWKURXJKP\

DQDO\WLFDOGRPDLQVRIJHRSROLWLFVHQHUJ\PDUNHWVDQGHQHUJ\ODQGVFDSHV :KHQ

XQGHUVWDQGLQJOLTXLGELRIXHOVDVDUHVSRQVHWRWKH PXOWLSOH FULVHVLQFDSLWDOLVPWKH

FRQQHFWLRQVEHWZHHQILQGLQJVIURPDFURVVWKHDQDO\WLFDOGRPDLQVDQGWKHHPSLULFDO

VHWWLQJVFRXOGH[SODLQHGPRUHFOHDUO\±WKRXJKQRWHQWLUHO\



,DUJXHWKDWLQFRUSRUDWLQJJHRKLVWRULFDOFRQWH[WLQWRUHVHDUFKLVLPSRUWDQWIRUWKH

UHVHDUFKDJHQGDRIVXVWDLQDELOLW\VFLHQFH7KHUHDVRQEHLQJWKDWDKLVWRULFDODFFRXQWV

RIVRFLDOUHODWLRQVPD\UHVXOWLQLQDGHTXDWHFRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQRIREMHFWVVWUXFWXUHV

DQGPHFKDQLVPVZKLFKRIFRXUVHKDVLPSOLFDWLRQVLQUHJDUGVWKHW\SHVRIµsolutions’

WKDW PD\ HQG XS EHLQJ VXJJHVWHG E\ VXVWDLQDELOLW\ VFLHQWLVWV 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ

µSUREOHPV¶ DQG WKHLU µVROXWLRQV¶ DV H[LVWLQJ LQ VSHFLILF EXW YDULHG JHRKLVWRULFDO

FRQWH[WVKDVPHWKRGRORJLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQVEHFDXVHLWUHTXLUHVNQRZOHGJHRQKRZWKH

SDVW VKDSHV FXUUHQW DQG IXWXUH RSSRUWXQLWLHVEDUULHUV IRU WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ , KDYH

DUJXHG WKDW WKH KLVWRULFDO DSSURDFK KDV VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFWV IRU KRZ VFLHQWLILF

NQRZOHGJH LV WR LGHQWLI\ µsustainable’ DOWHUQDWLYHV WR FXUUHQW KDUPIXO VRFLDO

SUDFWLVHV EHWKHPVRFLDOO\DQGRUHFRORJLFDOO\SUREOHPDWLF :KLOHWKHURRWFDXVHV

RIKDUPIXOVRFLDOSUDFWLVHVDUHXQGHUVWRRGWRH[LVWLQWKHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQQDWXUH

DQG VRFLHW\ DQG ZLWKLQ VRFLHW\ WKH DJHQF\ IRU FKDQJLQJ VRFLDO VWUXFWXUHV DQG

LQVWLWXWLRQVLVPDLQO\FRQWLQJHQWRQVRFLDOIRUFHV$OWKRXJKRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUFKDQJH

PD\QRWH[LVWQRZKLVWRU\KDVVKRZQWKDWWKHVHFRXOG RUHYHQWHQGWR HPHUJHRYHU

WLPH0\SRVLWLRQLVWKDWVXVWDLQDELOLW\VFLHQFHFDQKDYHDUROHLQWDNLQJDGYDQWDJH

RIWKHVHRSSRUWXQLWLHVRUHYHQFUHDWLQJWKHPWRPDNHVXUHWKDWDOWHUQDWLYHVWKDWDUH

DFWXDOO\ FDSDEOH RI GHOLYHULQJ HPDQFLSDWRU\ RXWFRPHV PLJKW EH PDQLIHVWHG E\

VRFLDOVWUXFWXUHVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQV+RZHYHULILQDGHTXDWHDQDO\WLFDOVSDFHLVJLYHQ

WRKLVWRU\VXVWDLQDELOLW\VFLHQFHULVNVXQGHUPLQLQJLWVRZQVFLHQWLILFOHJLWLPDF\DQG

FUHGLELOLW\LQUHJDUGVWRLWVUHVHDUFKDJHQGD

0\WKHVLVKDVDUJXHGWKDWVXVWDLQDELOLW\VFLHQFHFDQEHQHILWJUHDWO\IURPDFULWLFDO

DSSURDFKWRVRFLDOVFLHQWLILFUHVHDUFK,IRXQGWKDWVRFLRORJ\ LQWKLVFDVHPDLQO\WKH

ZRUN RI (ULN 2OLQ :ULJKW  DQG FULWLFDO JHRJUDSK\ PDLQO\ WKH ZRUN RI 'DYLG

+DUYH\ RIIHUHGLPSRUWDQWLQVLJKWVWKDWKHOSLGHQWLI\WKHXQGHUO\LQJVRFLDOVWUXFWXUHV

DQG PHFKDQLVPV WKDW JHQHUDWH SUREOHPV LQ QDWXUHVRFLHW\ LQWHUDFWLRQV +RZHYHU

WKHVHDSSURDFKHVGRQRWE\WKHPVHOYHVSURYLGHHQRXJKJXLGDQFHIRUKRZWRGHDO

ZLWKWKHQDWXUDOGLPHQVLRQRIVXVWDLQDELOLW\,QWKHHFOHFWLFILHOGRIVXVWDLQDELOLW\

VFLHQFHZHQHHGWREULQJLQWKHRULHVDQGSHUVSHFWLYHVIURPWKHQDWXUDOVFLHQFHVWR

XQGHUVWDQG WKH SURPLVHV DQG OLPLWDWLRQV RI YDULRXV LQLWLDWLYHV LQWHUYHQWLRQV DQG

SROLFLHV , GUHZ RQ WKHUPRG\QDPLFV ZKHUHDV RWKHUV KDYH GUDZQ RQ ELR

JHRPRUSKRORJ\ %RGD   RU WKH HFRORJLFDO G\QDPLFV RI DJULFXOWXUH ,VJUHQ

  WR ILQG DQG GLVFXVV PXFK QHHGHG YLDEOH DOWHUQDWLYHV IRU DFKLHYLQJ

VXVWDLQDELOLW\











Related documents