Exploring Barriers towards Adoption within Electric Road Systems

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STOCKHOLM SWEDEN 2020,

Exploring Barriers towards Adoption within Electric Road Systems

A Case Study of the User Perspective

FRIDA BORIN

LINNEA TJERNLUND

KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

SCHOOL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

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Exploring Barriers towards Adoption within Electric Road Systems:

A Case Study of the User Perspective by

Borin, Frida Tjernlund, Linnea

Master of Science Thesis TRITA-ITM-EX 2020:348 KTH Industrial Engineering and Management

Industrial Management SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM

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Utredning av Barriärer mot Övergång till Elvägar:

En fallstudie av Användarperspektivet av

Borin, Frida Tjernlund, Linnea

Examensarbete TRITA-ITM-EX 2020:348 KTH Industriell teknik och management

Industriell ekonomi och organisation SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM

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Master of Science Thesis TRITA-ITM-EX 2020:348

Exploring Barriers towards Adoption within Electric Road Systems:

A Case Study of the User Perspective

Borin, Frida Tjernlund, Linnea

Approved

2020-06-12

Examiner

Lars Uppvall

Supervisor

Mats Engwall

Commissioner

ElectReon AB

Contact person

Stefan Tongur

Abstract

In recent years, Electric Road Systems (ERS) has emerged as a potential solution for sustainable road transport. However, early ERS commercialization has turned out to be challenging and it is needed to better understand what drives a user’s decision to adopt ERS.

Previous studies have covered the technical aspects of ERS, but there is a gap in the current research about the user perspective regarding interests and barriers that influence ERS adoption. Moreover, prior research has defined the early adopters of ERS to be direct users that operate heavy vehicles on short repetitive routes. However, a problem with this user approach is that some important industry dynamics, which seems to make a significant impact on adoption, is disregarded. Therefore, this exploratory case study takes a wider approach and aims to analyze the barriers that exists for both direct and indirect users in ERS adoption.

The study is based on the inductive, wireless ERS technology provided by ElectReon AB.

Furthermore, the Swedish Transport Administration pilot project on highway 73 is used as an illustrative case to deepen the analysis and exemplify results. The data is primarily collected from interviews with the defined user types, as well as from interviews with some of Sweden’s leading experts within ERS. The interviews are complemented by written reports within the

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area of transportation and ERS. The analysis builds on two main user segments within the industry of transportation. The first segment is Passenger Transport, which includes the following two user types: Public bus transport and Commercial bus transport. The second segment is Transportation of Goods, which includes the following user types: Transport buyers, Transport providers, Freight forwarders and Logistic hubs. The results of the study show that the general interests for ERS are simple and mainly include an improved value proposition and profitable investments. However, the barriers are complex and multidimensional, and they originate from dependency in incumbent fuel technologies which creates lock-in effects hindering adoption. The study further shows that wireless ERS may open up for novel business models, which can minimize the experienced barriers for different users.

Minimizing efforts for barriers can efficiently be evaluated based on a model with two variables: “risk in adoption” and “industry influence”. The main contribution from this study is that it illuminates the importance of taking a wider user approach and including indirect users and environmental aspects (such as market forces) in the analysis when evaluating ERS adoption.

Keywords

Electric Road System, ERS, Barriers towards Adoption, Industry of transportation

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Examensarbete TRITA-ITM-EX 2020:348

Utredning av Barriärer mot Övergång till Elvägar:

En fallstudie av användarperspektivet

Borin, Frida Tjernlund, Linnea

Godkänt

2020-06-12

Examinator

Lars Uppvall

Handledare

Mats Engwall

Uppdragsgivare

ElectReon AB

Kontaktperson

Stefan Tongur

Sammanfattning

Under de senaste åren har elvägar vuxit fram som en potentiell lösning för hållbara vägtransporter. Trots detta är det påtagligt att tidig kommersialisering av elvägar innefattar många utmaningar och det saknas djupare förståelse för de drivkrafter som påverkar användarnas beslut att övergå till tekniken i en tidig utvecklingsfas. Tidigare forskning har i stor utsträckning utrett de tekniska aspekterna inom elvägar, men det saknas forskning om användarperspektivet med avseende på intressen och barriärer som påverkar övergången till tekniken. Dessutom har föregående forskning definierat tidiga användare av elvägar till att vara någon form av operatör av tunga fordon på korta, repetitiva rutter - vilket därmed syftar till direkta användare. Problemet med detta angreppssätt är att det förbiser viktiga dynamiska aspekter i industrin som har stor inverkan på användarnas övergång till elvägar. Av denna anledning antar denna utforskande fallstudie ett bredare angreppssätt och analyserar barriärer som existerar både för direkta och indirekta användare för att övergå till elvägar.

Studien är baserad på den induktiva elvägstekniken som ElectReon AB tillhandahåller.

Dessutom används Trafikverkets pilotprojekt på riksväg 73 som en illustrativ fallstudie för att

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fördjupa analysen och exemplifiera resultat. Data är framförallt insamlad via intervjuer med de definierade användarna, men även från intervjuer med några av Sveriges ledande experter inom elvägssystem. Intervjuerna kompletteras med tillgängliga rapporter inom ämnet transport och elvägar. Analysen bygger på två identifierade användarsegment inom vägtransport. Det första segmentet är passagerartransporter, vilket inkluderar kollektivtrafik med buss och kommersiell busstrafik. Det andra segmentet utgörs av godstransporter, vilket inkluderar de följande användartyperna: transportköpare, åkare, speditörer och logistik-hubbar. Resultatet av studien visar att de intressen som driver användare till att övergå till elvägar är relativt simpla, och rör sig främst om ett förbättrat värdeerbjudande och sänkta kostnader. Däremot är barriärerna bevisligen mer komplexa och multi-dimensionella och uppstår då användare är beroende av den etablerade fordonstekniken, vilket skapar inlåsningseffekter som hindrar en teknisk övergång. Studien visar dessutom att trådlös elvägsteknik kan öppna upp för nya affärsmodeller som i sin tur kan minimera effekterna från barriärerna. Dessa effektminskningar kan utvärderas baserat på en modell uppbyggd av två variabler: risk och inflytande. Studiens viktigaste bidrag till utvecklingen av elvägar är att den belyser vikten av att ta ett bredare angreppssätt på användarperspektivet och även inkludera indirekta användare och de krafter som verkar inom användarmarknaden i analys av övergång till elvägar.

Nyckelord

Elvägar, barriärer mot teknikövergångar, Transportindustri

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List of Figures

Figure 1 – Geographic presentation of highway 73 ... 10

Figure 2 - Interactions between ERS suppliers and ERS users ... 11

Figure 3 - Socio-technical system for car-based transportation (Elzen et al, 2004). ... 13

Figure 4 - Conceptual framework for explaining actor rationales for supporting a transition (Bakker, Maat and van Wee, 2014). ... 16

Figure 5 - S-curve and categories of adopters (Rogers, 1983) ... 17

Figure 6 - Scope of research illustrated by the Conceptual Framework ... 24

Figure 7 - Coding process (Saldana, 2015) ... 33

Figure 8 - Identified ERS users ... 35

Figure 9 - Passenger Transportation Industry: Flows and Actors ... 36

Figure 10 - Transportation of Goods Industry: Flows and Actors ... 41

Figure 11 - Flow of goods assumed for ERS on highway 73 ... 55

Figure 12 - User related changes in Socio-technical system ... 58

Figure 13 - Model over industry influence and risk in adopting ERS: Business as usual ... 74

Figure 14 - Industry influence vs risk in adopting ERS: Effects from leasing service ... 75

Figure 15 - Industry influence vs risk in adopting ERS: Effects from longer contracts ... 76

Figure 16 - Industry influence vs risk in adopting ERS: Effects of an inland hub in Jordbro . 77

List of Tables

Table 1 – Presentation of the interviewed companies ... 28

Table 2 – Presentation of the interviews held during the study ... 30

Table 3 – Interest and Expectations for ERS adoption ... 59

Table 4 – Common and specific barriers ... 66

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List of Acronyms

ERS - Electric Road System B2B – Business to business BEV – Battery electric vehicle GHG – Greenhouse gas

MLP – Multi-Level Perspective

PTA - Public Transport Administration, Stockholm Region SNM – Strategic Niche Management

TOE – Framework with three dimensions: Technology-Organization-Environment

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Forewords and Acknowledgements

This study was conducted during the spring of 2020 as a master thesis within Industrial Engineering and Management at KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm. We (the authors) have previous to this study conducted a smaller published study on the user perspective of electric road systems, which provided a good foundation for writing this thesis.

When conducting this study, we have come across a number of people who have contributed to the work and who have been helpful in enhancing the quality of the research. Therefore, we would like to thank everyone that has participated in interviews or in other ways contributed to the thesis.

First and foremost, we would like to express our appreciation to our supervisor at ElectReon AB, Stefan Tongur for supporting us and providing feedback and encouragement during the work. We would also like to thank Håkan Sundelin for commenting on the research and providing expertise knowledge. Moreover, we would like to thank Oren Ezer and Hanan Rumbak for sharing their journeys and unique insight from starting and growing ElectReon.

Furthermore, we would like to raise our gratitude to our supervisor, professor Mats Engwall at Industrial Engineering and Management for his guidance and expertise, as well as his academic insight and reading and commenting on our work. We are grateful to the seminar group at KTH, for providing feedback and helping us in guiding the research.

Lastly, a special thanks to Björn Hasselgren and Elin Näsström at the Swedish Transport Administration for inviting us to take part of the development of ERS and providing useful insight and knowledge within the area.

Stockholm, June 2020

Frida Borin and Linnea Tjernlund

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1. Introduction

In the following chapter, a background to the problem with sustainable development in the Swedish transport industry is presented, followed by an introduction of electric road systems as a possible solution. The complexity of implementing the technology - and the challenges of attracting system users - is explained to give reason to the problematization and purpose of the study.

1.1 Background

Finding ways to reduce emissions is a pressing issue world-wide. As part of a climate protection strategy, the Swedish Government aims to have a transportation sector that is independent of fossil fuel vehicles by 2030 (Erixon, 2017). On an international level, there is consensus that a large share of zero emission vehicles is needed in order to reach the environmental goals within the EU. In order to reach these targets, parallel investments are needed in different sectors and industries. Electric vehicles are seen as a potential solution to lower emissions, and general market trends speaks for a future with an electrified vehicle fleet.

Even though battery electric vehicles (BEV) are becoming more accessible, problems still remain concerning low distance ranges and lack of charging stations. For heavy vehicles, electric propulsion technologies are related to weight and load volume problems as the required battery size is still relatively big. During the last decade, Electric Road Systems (ERS) have emerged as a potential complementary solution to electric vehicles. There are a number of technological solutions that are competing to make out a future dominant design. However, the basic idea of all solutions is to continually supply vehicles in motion with energy, either by a conductive or an inductive solution (Jelica, 2017). This results in a reduced need for charging stops and enables for smaller batteries to be installed on the vehicles. Naturally, this contributes to an improved load volume for heavy vehicles and provide a solution to the range issues. Also, when comparing the total cost of a fully commercial ERS with a scenario of electric vehicles that depend on large batteries and charging stations, ERS is expected to be a better alternative (Alaküla, 2019). Accordingly, adopting to ERS can provide users with benefits related to economic, social and environmental aspects.

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2 Though being a global leader of ERS, the development in Sweden is still in an early stage.

There is no established commercial market yet - and uncertainties related to policy, costs, technology and market aspects remain. For these reasons, ERS can still be considered as a niche technology. Despite the many benefits that ERS poses and that a working technology is available, the shift from conventional fueling structures to ERS is proceeding slow. For many emerging sustainable innovations, like ERS, gaining market shares appears to be an issue.

There seems to be barriers that inhibit transitions towards radical sustainable innovations.

Seeing that ERS soon is ready for an early commercial market, it is essential to better understand the adoption of sustainable technologies within the transportation sector, to support a system transition away from conventional unsustainable fuel technologies. The Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) are currently testing different technology solutions in traffic to improve understanding of the system performance and usage. This is an important part of the ERS development, and there are plans to further extend this in a stepwise process towards commercialization. One of the stretches that are investigated for future ERS testing is located along highway 73. Therefore, it is interesting to explore the dynamics of ERS implementation in relation to the pilot on highway 73, in order to anchor the exploring of barriers in an actual business case. For the sake of further connecting the study to a real scenario, the wireless (inductive) ERS technology provided by ElectReon AB will be the basis for studying technically related implications for users.

Up until now, the development of ERS has primarily been driven by a “policy push” from governmental actors and technology providers, rather than a “demand pull” from actors within the transport market (Bernecker et al., 2020). Early research about ERS was focused on providing technical functionalities and coordinate system providers. As ERS evolved to be fully recognized as a technically viable solution, the research started focusing on how to create a system that can be fully supported by private market forces in the future. However, little is known about the user perspective. Switching attention to the user side of the system is needed for many reasons. First off, the situation is suffering from a “chicken and egg dilemma”, as the lack of an existing market creates many uncertainties. This in turn make users reluctant to invest in the technology, while technology providers and policy makers want to secure future users in order to invest in the infrastructure. For this reason, a clear understanding of the main users is fundamental for the proceeding of ERS (PIARC, 2018). What is more, in order to understand why the implementation of ERS is suffering, and to solve the chicken-and-egg-

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3 dilemma, there is need to identify and study the user types which have potential for transitioning to ERS during the early stage of the development.

Understanding the users’ interests and attitudes towards ERS is central when designing the system, in order to attract users and improve adoption. This is important, as the revenues in a future scenario of ERS are expected to rely on system usage. Accordingly, if the system fails to attract users, ERS will struggle to develop and cannot be implemented on a large scale. By including the user perspective at an early stage of implementation, adapting to the users’ needs, as well as decreasing barriers is possible - and will be far less expensive than doing so at a later stage. Furthermore, in order to deepen the understanding of the users, there is need to take a more holistic approach of the user perspective to improve the understanding of the market dynamics of the transport industry. As the transport industry is diverse and complex, there might be forces on a higher system level that have implications on adoption. Therefore, a wider user approach is essential when studying barriers towards adoption. Adding to this, efforts to minimize barriers can be designed from insights about the users’ interests in ERS together with an understanding of the prevailing barriers and industry dynamics.

1.2 Problematization

Even though ERS provides evidence of being a competitive sustainable technology, there seems to be obstructing forces towards adoption. There is a gap in the current body of research on the user perspective of ERS, which leads to a lack of knowledge about what barriers that hinder a system transformation - and how these barriers can be minimized. Earlier research has had a narrow view on the users, but in order to identify the full spectrum of barriers towards adoption, the users should be studied from a wider industry perspective. Moreover, a deeper understanding of the users’ interests in ERS is required, as this helps in identifying what barriers that hinder a user’s decision to adopt.

1.3 Purpose and Research Question

The purpose of this thesis is to build on existing theories in adoption of sustainable technologies by exploring the user perspective of ERS. The aim is to identify what barriers that hinder

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4 adoption of ERS and how they can be minimized. In order to do so, the thesis aims to first describe the potential users and explore the market dynamics of the transport sector. Secondly, the interests for ERS adoption will be explored and analyzed, which then provides a basis for studying barriers towards adoption and its minimizing efforts.

The following research question will guide the research and will be answered in order to fulfill the purpose of the thesis:

RQ: What barriers on the user market hinder the adoption of ERS and what minimizing efforts can be recognized?

Two supporting research questions have been defined in order to help identify barriers, thereby guiding and strengthening the answering of the main research question:

SQ1: How does the market dynamics of the transport industry affect the adoption of ERS?

SQ2: What are the users’ main interests to transition from a conventional fuel infrastructure to ERS?

To answer the research question, an exploratory approach is taken which focus on two main user segments related to ERS usage: Passenger Transportation and Transportation of Goods.

Each of the two segments include complex relations and operations and in order to grasp the full potential of ERS, there is need to study the segments in a wide context. Hence, both indirect and direct users of an electric road are included. As there is need to understand the dynamics of the user segment, covering users that are not directly using the system in terms of operating vehicles on the road is important.

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5 1.4 Delimitations

• As there is no established market for ERS today, this study focusses on the early implementation of ERS (i.e. niche market). Therefore, the study addresses the early users within the system and does not cover aspects in a later, commercialized stage.

• This thesis studies the market dynamics and the actors of the transport industry within a Swedish context. The implications of ERS might vary from one country to another, due to differences in for example legislation or political regulations.

• The aspects related to technology are studied from the perspective of inductive (wireless) ERS, as this enables exploring specified technical aspects that deepens the analysis.

1.5 Thesis Sponsor

The thesis is sponsored and written on request by ElectReon AB, an affiliate to the Israeli company ElectReon Wireless, a global leader in developing and implementing wireless ERS.

ElectReon is in the forefront of developing ERS technology in Sweden, which has enabled a deep learning process of the development and the challenges that ERS is facing.

ElectReon is currently partnering with the Swedish Transport Administration regarding an electric road project on Gotland (Smartroad Gotland, 2020). Smartroad Gotland is one of the four pilot projects that the Swedish Transport Administration uses as testbeds in Sweden. The project includes a fully functional public shuttle service through a 1,6 km long electric road, stretching between the airport and the town center of Visby (Smartroad Gotland, 2020). The aim of Smartroad Gotland is to test and investigate the performance of inductive ERS in order to gain knowledge and lead the way for future development. Depending on the technical development, ElectReon’s wireless inductive technology is one of the potential selections for a future ERS pilot.

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2. Research Context

The context in which the research took place is explained through the sections below. The development of ERS is proceeding fast, hence it is important to understand under what circumstances the report has been written. Furthermore, ERS is still a foreign subject to many, and therefore a basic overview of the technology, system actors and system development is presented.

2.1 Competing ERS Technologies

When speaking of ERS, there are mainly three technical concepts, which all are associated with different benefits and challenges (PIARC, 2018): conductive over-head, conductive rail and inductive. With conductive power transfer, there is direct contact between the vehicle and the system. This makes power transfer effective, but on the other hand, wearing on the equipment is inevitable. There are two types of conductive technologies: over-head and by rail. The over- head technology is well-tested and has a high level of technology readiness. The system relies on a constant connection between the vehicle and the power supply, usually by using a pantograph (PIARC, 2018). As the technology is relying on power transfer from a set distance range over the road it is mainly suitable for heavy vehicles - and is not compatible with private car transport or lighter vehicles. The simplicity of the technology is an advantage, but that columns are installed on the side of the road that hold the infrastructure is seen as a challenge for road safety. There is also some concern in roadside maintenance, as the columns limits access. Conductive rail technologies use the same transferring principles as over-head solutions; what differs is that it relies on segmented electrified rails embedded in or on top of the road surface (PIARC, 2018).

Turning to inductive ERS, which this study covers, the technology builds on the concept of wireless power transfer between two coils; one that is embedded in the road and one in the receiver under or in the vehicle. As the coils are laid beneath the road surface, no coupling and decoupling is needed and hence there is no wearing on the equipment. Also, the technology makes no visual impact on the road and does not affect the general road safety. Power from the connected grid is converted into high frequency AC power, resulting in a varying magnetic

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7 field that is picked up by the receiver (PIARC, 2018). The magnetic field induces voltage in the secondary coil, resulting in an electric current in the receiver and inductive power is generated (Singh, 2016). Besides from the receiver, the vehicle needs to have a battery and an electric motor. Moreover, roadside technology such as grid connection, transformers, communication systems, power inverters are included in inductive ERS technology. When a vehicle with compliable sensors is detected on the road, power is transferred from the roadside unit and delivered actively (ElectReon, 2020).

The technology is not only designed for dynamic charging along the road but can also provide static charging if the equipment is installed at parking spots or truck loading and unloading areas. Furthermore, it can also be used for opportunity charging (quasi-static charging at short stops in traffic) for example at bus stops (Ozpineci, 2019). This allows for a flexible usage and that the battery size on the truck can be optimized accordingly. However, inductive ERS has a lower maturity level than conductive ERS and challenges include being able to support vehicles with high power requirements.

2.2 The Progress of ERS in Sweden

The Swedish Transport Administration is managing the development of ERS in Sweden through their ERS-program (Program Elvägar - Trafikverket, 2020a). Four in traffic test projects has been introduced so far: conductive overhead in Gävleborg (Region Gävleborg, 2020), conductive rail in Arlanda (eRoadArlanda, 2020), conductive rail in Lund (EvolutionRoad, 2020) and wireless inductive on Gotland (Smartroad Gotland, 2020). There are also future pilot projects to be introduced, one of which is located along highway 73 south from Stockholm (a more detailed explanation of this project is given in section 2.2.1).

Developing pilots are central for improving technology readiness, as well as studying user behavior and real time system operation. To reach a fully commercial ERS there is need to figure out the details, as well as designing the full picture. Studies of economic viability in ERS show that high traffic loads are a key aspect to gain profitability (Trafikverket, 2019). For this reason, the system must attract a wide range of users, preferably with high individual levels of usage. Thus, strong market forces are critical. In the current early phase of the development, the target users for electric roads are found in the heavy vehicle segment, mainly since limiting emissions from this sector is of high importance for reaching a sustainable transport sector.

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8 Moreover, range issues and load volumes are particularly troublesome when electrifying heavy vehicles, making ERS a great enabler. The long-term goal of the ERS development in Sweden is to electrify road stretches that has large volumes of traffic and then a wider range of users may benefit from the system. The main focus is to achieve a well-functioning and sustainable transport sector, were ERS is one of the propulsion solutions, together with for example charging stations, biofuel or fuel cells.

For a full ERS implementation, extensive investments in infrastructure is required (Kloo and Larsson, 2019). Hence, funding these investments and building the system calls for major efforts from the involved actors and stakeholders. Still, there are many technical uncertainties and at the time being, neither payment methods nor to whom the payments will be made is established. However, there are two probable payment models for a future ERS; pay-by-use or some kind of a subscription model (Tongur and Sundelin, 2019). It is also likely that the actor driving on the ERS road (the direct user) is responsible for making payments for using the infrastructure (Tongur and Sundelin, 2019). It has been discussed that a future standardized interface is needed in order to allow the technology to be competitive on a future market (RISE, 2020). Furthermore, there are also external aspects which will have implications on the ERS diffusion, such as competing low carbon technologies (e.g. bio-fuels, fuel-cells and BEV solutions) (PIARC, 2018) . The Swedish Transport Administration estimate that transitioning to ERS will result in lower costs for fuel and maintenance compared with conventional diesel vehicles. Hence, the employment of ERS has the potential to provide competitive advantage for its users partly by lowering their operational cost.

The general political view on ERS in Sweden is positive. The Swedish Government have committed to cover half of the financial costs in initial test projects, but the rest must come from private funding. A considerable government involvement is required in a roll-out phase, but at a later stage the system could be increasingly organised by private actors on a competitive market. The road infrastructure systems in Sweden are predominately publicly owned and funded - and therefore specifically regulated. The Swedish Transport Administration oversee the management of national highways (Bernecker et al., 2020). On the other hand, the energy market is a regulated market, controlled by private companies that operates under EU legislation. Combining these two regulative forces is one of the challenges in ERS (EY, 2018).

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9 Moreover, the ERS development is slowed down by the large investments in infrastructure that are needed for a fully functioning system. As the investments cannot be fully covered by government funding, private actors need to engage in early investments. The dynamics of a niche market is complex and evolves as the technology and market matures. On one hand, in an early, small scale stage of implementation the technology can evolve and gain competitiveness within a protected space, separated from competing propulsion technologies by the use of government funding. But on the other hand, for a large-scale implementation the system must be competitive enough to attract users within the market of transportation.

Uncertainties remain regarding the future level of governmental control of the system operation, what the road operator role should look like and how the interface should be designed. This is to be investigated in future research, and a part of this design process rely on real life testing and evaluation.

2.2.1 Pilot Project on Highway 73

The designing of new test projects is included in the near future of ERS development. Within the Swedish Transport Administration’s ERS program, there are currently two road stretches that are being evaluated as potential future pilot projects. One of the potential projects is highway 73, which connects Stockholm City with Nynäshamn. This pilot will be used as an illustrative case in this study, in order to make results that are closer to reality and more tangible.

Commercial passenger transport between Stockholm and Nynäshamn is an important link for ferry service connecting to Gotland and other destinations. Adding to this, highway 73 is important for national transportation of goods, especially for the geographic area of Mälardalen, which stands for one of the largest demands of goods in Sweden (Trafikanalys, 2016). Consequently, highway 73 is characterized by large volumes of heavy-duty traffic, which is expected to increase further from May 2020 when Stockholm Norvik Port opens close to Nynäshamn (Näsström and Widegren, 2020). The modern port will increase the capacity of goods and is expected to become the new major logistic hub for the Stockholm area. Hence, finding ways to make the road transport to and from the port sustainable is crucial from an environmental perspective. This makes it interesting to explore the implementation of ERS on the highway, as it could be an enabler for zero emission transports in the future. Furthermore, the expected high traffic loads is positive for ERS profitability, as high traffic loads are

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10 fundamental for economic viability of the system. The road section that is included in the ERS pilot is about 30 km, starting in Älgviken and then going north until reaching Västerhaninge (see Figure 1). The potential ERS installation would be employed in both traffic directions along the road.

Figure 1 – Geographic presentation of highway 73

The exact traffic loads along highway 73 are currently being investigated and the share of total traffic which has ERS potential is yet uncertain. It is known that not all the vehicles travelling along the road are potential users and the local specific ERS potential remains to be fully established. The ongoing investigation relies on the assumption that there is shuttle traffic from the ports in Nynäshamn and Norvik, destined for the industry hubs in the areas close to Västerhaninge (Näsström and Widegren, 2020). It is also assumed that the ERS traffic loads are large enough to create an economically viable system and a niche market. This needs to be investigated further and an evaluation of total traffic load has been made as a start for a future deeper analysis (Näsström and Widegren, 2020). As the port is not opened yet, any precise information about the routes for the vehicles travelling in the area is not known, which is problematic as the routes will have a significant impact on the user engagement in the project.

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11 2.3 Introducing System Actors & Defining Users

In order for ERS to be implemented successfully, a number of actors need to work together to create a functional system. An easy sectioning of the different actors can be made by distinguishing between ERS suppliers and ERS users. The ERS suppliers include for example electricity suppliers, power grid companies, the ERS operator, technology providers, road owners and vehicle manufacturers. Figure 2 shows a scheme of possible interrelations between the system actors and gives an illustration of the complexity of building and operating an ERS.

However, as focus of the study will lie on the user side of the system, further elaboration on the supplier side falls outside the scope of the thesis.

Figure 2 - Interactions between ERS suppliers and ERS users

Previous research on the user perspective recognize that users will benefit from an early ERS adoption if they operate heavy vehicles on daily, repetitive routes. Following this, operators within public transport and the road freight industry are identified as early adopters of ERS (PIARC, 2018). However, in this report, an extended view of the potential users is guiding the research. As illustrated in Figure 2, the users within ERS is found in two industry segments:

Transport of Goods and Passenger Transport. Then, six different user types are found within these areas: Transport providers, Transport buyers, Freight forwarders and Logistic hubs, as well as Public bus transport and Commercial bus transport. The reason for including all of these user types is that the complexity of the transport industry indicates that there may be

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12 actors related to the transport operations, who are not direct operators of road infrastructure, but nonetheless influence market dynamics and driving forces for ERS adoption. Therefore, both direct and indirect users should be studied for a better understanding of the user market.

The direct users are defined as the primary adopters of ERS technology in road operation and include transport providers, public bus transport and commercial bus transport. The indirect users are evaluated as market drivers and they take an important role in influencing the demand for ERS (logistic hubs, freight forwarders and transport buyers).

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3. Theoretical Foundation

This chapter provides theoretical knowledge within technology shifts and adoption of innovation, with focus on the user perspective. The theoretical review will start with a contextual foundation in the theories of technology shifts and adoption. Then, the analysis deepens using theory from strategic niche management and path dependency to understand the user perspective and barriers to adoption. This will give a comprehensive review of existing theories to further build the analysis and discussion in later chapters of the report.

3.1 Technology Shifts

The transition from conventional fuel to ERS is a complex and multidimensional technology shift within a large technological system. Elzen et al (2004) explores transitions to sustainability and provides the following illustration (see Figure 3) for understanding the socio- technical system of traditional car transport. It can be assumed that the socio-technical system for transportation of goods and bus transport have the same basic components for configuration, and changes towards sustainability requires reconfigurations which will have direct or indirect implications on the users.

Figure 3 - Socio-technical system for car-based transportation (Elzen et al, 2004).

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14 As the transition away from traditional fueling solutions to ERS would change the socio- technical system for transport, the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) is well suited to study the system transformation. The MLP theory explains the transformation of large technological systems throughout the system’s three levels: niche, socio-technical regime and socio-technical landscape (Geels, 2002a). The socio-technical landscape forms the cultural and political context for the socio-technical regime. The socio-technical regime is constituted by seven dimensions: technology, user practices and application domains (markets), symbolic meaning of technology, infrastructure, industry structure, policy and techno-scientific knowledge (Geels, 2002a). The socio-technical regime set the contextual conditions of the niche level. The niche level constitutes protected spaces in which novel technological innovation emerge and evolve (Geels, 2002b). The niche development is important as it enables technological research and development without being exposed to competition from incumbent or other niche technologies which otherwise could disrupt development. The growth of a novel technology from niche level to socio-technical regime is realized through “a stepwise process of reconfiguration” (Geels, 2002a).

Niche markets are important spaces for niche innovations to evolve and is a part of this reconfiguration process (Geels, 2002a). The niche market can for example be supported with external funding, which provides a kind of artificial respiratory until the technology is mature enough to be fully commercialized. In the case of ERS, the niche market is supported by government funding through the Swedish Transport administration. This makes more attractive prerequisites for users to adopt the technology, but to fully understand their rationales, it is important to further review theories explaining this phenomenon.

3.1.1 Actors’ Response to Socio-Technical Transitions

In order to understand the barriers towards new technologies on the market, there is need to understand the interests which affect why users would want to transition to that new technology.

Moreover, interests and barriers naturally are interconnected. For example, if reduced costs are an interest to transition to a new technology, then high investments cost may pose a barrier.

This section aims to elaborate further on theories related to this.

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15 Socio-technological transitions (such as ERS implementation) include large-scale and radical system innovation. Hence, cooperation among a broad set of actors is required (Geels, 2012b) for a transition to succeed. Despite this, it is important to realize that cooperation between these actors cannot be taken for granted. In many cases, transitions from a socio-technical system face resistance; which may be passive from existing formal or informal rules in institutions, or active from actors with interests tied to the existing regime (Geels, 2014). Building on this, Bakker, Maat and van Wee (2014) studied the questions: Why does actors support socio- technical transitions and take part in niche activities? They suggest that the action of supporting a transition is depending on the actor’s interests and expectations in relation to the emerging system. Therefore, by understanding the actor’s rationales it is easier to design the right incentives for actors to engage them in niche activities. Bakker, Maat and van Wee, (2014) continue by arguing that this is important, as: “actors’ support for a transition is likely to be conditional on the articulation of the emerging socio-technical system”.

In order to understand actor rationales, both their interests and their expectations regarding an emerging system should be studied, as actors need to make sense of the proposed transition and the effect it may have on them (Bakker, Maat and van Wee, 2014). What interest an actor have depend on the context and specific type and role of the actor. The interests of incumbent actors can relate to their existing resources and capabilities in relation to the existing dominant design in the industry – but they may also recognize that the emerging system align well with their future interests and that supporting the transition can give them a competitive advantage Van Marrewijk (2003). Bakker, Maat and van Wee (2014) expand on this and claim that the interests of an actor are defined by its goals, resources, capabilities and the institutional context in which it operates. Next, expectations are defined as ideas relating to the potential for improvement of a new technology and its future societal and commercial value. How interests and expectations can affect the support for a transition is illustrated in a simple way in Figure 4 below.

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16

Figure 4 - Conceptual framework for explaining actor rationales for supporting a transition (Bakker, Maat and van Wee, 2014).

The collective expectations are important, for example it can affect the way the actors think about the likeliness that the transition will occur. If there is a collective expectation that a transition to ERS will occur, it is more likely that individual actors will be positive towards the transitioning happening.

Another relevant theory to study in relation to the implementation of ERS with focus on individual users of a novel technology is Diffusion of Innovations (DOI), first introduced by Rogers (1983). As an innovation grows to be more established in a socio-technical system, more users adopt the innovation (i.e. accept and adapts to innovation). This spread of novel technology is studied in DOI, and the theory focus on the user perspective and describes the way a novel technology is accepted by a social system. This relates to the MLP-theory as adoption defines the spread of technology which then drives a system transition. The DOI theory defines different roles of adoption, where change agents are the developers and providers of technology, driving diffusion forward. The adopters are the ones accepting the technology. There are different types of adopters which are categorized based on the way they act on technological development. Innovators are hungry for innovations and are the first minority to accept novel technology. Early Adopters represent a larger share of the total adopters and follow after the innovators. They are attracted to new innovations, but they are not as aggressive in their adoption as the Innovators. As the technology diffuses throughout the social system, the following groups of adopters are Early Majority, Late Majority and Laggards. This is illustrated in Figure 5, along with the s-curve which defines the rate of adoption.

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17

Figure 5 - S-curve and categories of adopters (Rogers, 1983)

Technology adoption is a phenomenon that helps describing why a user choose to accept or reject a technology, which is important knowledge when developing a technology or predicting diffusion of a technology such as ERS. Tornatzky & Fleischer (1990) build on the theory on diffusion of innovation and provide a framework which takes a holistic approach to consider the linkage between the Technology, Organization and Environment (TOE). The framework aims to describe the adoption of a novel technology for an organization - with focus on understanding the user’s decision to adopt. Thus, when analyzing adoption of a technology for a particular user, the relevant parameters to evaluate are the external task environment, the user’s internal organization and the technology itself (Tornatzky & Fleischer, 1990 cited in Baker, 2011). This framework, further referred to as the TOE framework, is flexible in its application (Baker, 2011), which is one of its strengths. Over the years, the framework has effectively been applied on a number of areas and in combination with a number of complementing theories which proves its adaptability (Baker, 2011).

Technology – Describes the technological attributes and its usage, as well as its potential and its implications for the specific firm. The type of innovation can be described as radical or incremental (Baker, 2011).

Organization – Evaluates the attributes on a micro level, focusing on the adopting firm’s prerequisites for accepting the technology and adapting to it. This relates to organization structures (formal and informal), size, slack and communication.

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18 External Task Environment – Describes the meso/macro level attributes which affects a firm’s decision to adopt. Thus, focus lies in defining the market forces and relations with external actors which have implications on the firm’s ability to adopt innovation. From an MLP- perspective, this is a kind of description of the socio-technical system in which the user operates.

3.2 Strategic Niche Management

Research has confirmed that niche innovations (like ERS) can face challenges when developing from being a pre-commercial R&D project to become a commercialized market innovation.

This transition phase is called the “valley of death” (Tongur, 2018). (Bidmon and Knab, 2014), may provide a possible solution for this, describing business models as enablers that can take niche innovations to a commercialized state. Strategic Niche Management (SNM) is reviewed in order to create an awareness of the importance of including the user perspective in the development of niches to create business models to overcome the “valley of death”, as well as for understanding how to study the user perspective in niche innovations. Also, particular interest has been aimed at SNM practices for driving sustainable development.

Several scholars have looked deeper into investigating the dynamics of sustainable innovations in niche markets, and research shows that many sustainable technologies never reach the market (van der Laak, Raven and Verbong, 2007). The concept of SNM, first described by Rip (1992), is to induce and manage technological regime shifts, which started as an attempt to develop a theory on why new innovations fail or succeed (Steinhilber, Wells and Thankappan, 2013). Hoogma et al. (2005) elaborated the concept by describing how to start early diffusion processes that will lead to a greater integration of new technologies. A well-established definition of the SNM concept is: “The creation, development and controlled break-down of test-beds for promising new technologies and concepts with the aim of learning about the desirability (for example in terms of sustainability) and enhancing the rate of diffusion of the new technology” (Hoogma et al., 2005). SNM allows for systematically documenting the first activities and processes that eventually lead to the adoption and broad diffusion of a new technology. Through SNM one can also evaluate and identify important stimulating and constraining factors involved in that process (Steinhilber, Wells and Thankappan, 2013).

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19 Hoogma et al. (2005) state that SNM is particularly suitable when analyzing transitions towards a more sustainable transport system, because it couples social, economic and environmental requirements with the developmental process of new technologies. The SNM framework has been tested and verified in various case studies within the field of sustainable technologies, such as electric vehicles, (Hoogma et al., 2005) and renewable energy technologies (Tsoutsos and Stamboulis, 2005). Some criticisms have been directed towards SNM for being more of a bottom-up strategy. Nonetheless, this strategy can still be viewed as useful for assessing technology needs, imperfections and strategies to overcome any associated issues (Steinhilber, Wells and Thankappan, 2013).

In many cases for sustainable technologies, a clear market does not exist. Therefore, the traditional idea of niches waiting to be filled does not apply, but instead niches materialize as the product of organizational action. Therefore, markets need to be created in a process of co- evolution of market and technology. Van der Laak, Raven and Verbong (2007) suggests that this can be done by temporarily protecting the innovation from too harsh selection, for example with investment grants or tax releases. To distinguish these protected niches from regular market niches, the term “technological niches” was introduced by Kemp, Schot and Hoogma (1998) as “technological niches”, which serve as test beds for learning. The development of a niche may require that a new network of actors is formed. The new network will be a combination of new and old actors (Hoogma et al., 2005). Some of the actors will have interests in other technologies and will therefore not be interested in simulating a new, competing technology. However, in order to expand the niche, these actors are needed. The role of new actors is generally to bring new perspectives and they may better understand how to develop the new technology. In order to create a well-functioning new network, help from public authorities may be needed (Hoogma et al., 2005). Hoogma et al. (2005) suggests that many barriers hindering new technologies involve uncertainty and perceptions. Therefore, learning about it is an important part of strategic niche management policies. Included in the learning process is understanding about the market demands. This includes grasping for whom (which users) the new technology is aimed for, and what their needs and requirements are.

Apart from understanding users, Hoogma et al (2005) argues that established technologies are supported by a number of mechanisms that protects their dominance. Hence, in order to implement a new technology, similar stabilizing mechanisms need to be implemented around

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20 it. One of the most important protection mechanisms is to convince the actors and stakeholders involved that the implementation of the new technology is a feasible and reliable option (Hoogma et al., 2005). Besides from this, in order for a new technology to take off it, is crucial to involve the potential users in the design phase. The users should be able to express their requirements and needs and communicate them in an early stage, as this will benefit the innovation. On the other hand, it is crucial to note that the profile of users changes during the lifetime of the niche. Pioneer users can be expected to have a narrow profile of needs, as they tend to be positive about the new technology and accept some inconveniences. Therefore, one should be careful to listen too much to the needs of the pioneers, as this results in path dependencies that might hinder the later customization towards the wider mass of users (Hoogma et al., 2005).

3.3 Barriers from Path Dependency & Lock-in Effects

Adoption as described by Roger’s (1983) is useful to study in system transformation - but is limited to the myopic, micro- economic decision-making process (Unruh, 2000). However, there are forces on a higher system level that inhibit transformation, and the adoption is not just depending on the user’s decision to adopt. Researchers have found that macroeconomic aspects also have great influence on system transformation. For example, David (1985) states that history matters and explains that historical development affects the way development proceeds in present day. This phenomenon is referred to as path dependency, and describes that development is made easier if it is built upon an already established system. From a MLP perspective, this explains why properly good niche technologies sometimes do not grow competitive on the general market. The dominant design and incumbent technological trajectory are too tightly imbedded in the system - and detaching from these rigidities cannot be made without added costs (David, 1985). Thus, the transformation is impeded.

Authors point to the fact that existing energy and transport systems are characterized by lock- in and resistance to change (van der Laak, Raven and Verbong, 2007). Moreover, research suggests that when transitioning to low-carbon infrastructure, barriers are created due to lock- in effects established from the incumbent infrastructure. Not only is it costly to build new green infrastructures, but it is also often technically challenging. Once polluting or resource intensive infrastructure is built, green retrofits is often costly or technically impossible to implement

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21 before the end of its productive life cycle, creating a hard lock-in of dirty development pathways.” (Granoff, Hogarth and Miller, 2016) Moreover, soft-lock ins are created through cultural values, technical knowledge and vested interests, as well as the interplay between established workforces, distribution networks, shareholder interests (Granoff, Hogarth and Miller, 2016).Arthur (1994) contributes with important insights on the economic implications caused by path dependence. He claims that path dependency creates inefficiency in markets as technological success reinforces some actions, while inhibiting others. He further claims that:

“there are in all of these models opposing tendencies, some towards achieving and optimum, and some toward locking-in on inefficient forms of behavior”. This means that while striving to make one technology more efficient along an incumbent trajectory, path dependency is sometimes a cause of inefficiency for companies, users and for the system as a whole. This is because the development along a particular trajectory inevitably impedes development in new technological trajectories, even though these might be more efficient than the incumbent one.

It seems like the those that profit from path dependency are incumbent firms relying on the lock-ins and dominant designs, as they benefit from positive feedback and increasing returns (Arthur, 1994). Surprisingly however, there are also proof that some niche technologies profit from an incumbent regime for its development. For example, the development of biofuels can profit from the incumbent system of conventional fueling infrastructure (i.e. traditional fuel stations) (Klitkou et al., 2015).

As the demand for more efficient and sustainable energy systems increase, measures are needed to overcome the path dependencies in conventional energy technology systems. To do so, the concept of path dependencies and lock-ins is reviewed to create a deeper understanding of what actually causes it. It is known that cost and performance are two key parameters for novel technologies, which can pose strong barriers towards socio-technical transitions (Sandén and Azar, 2005). Other known barriers of socio-technical transitions that enforce lock-ins are reviewed below. The phenomenon explained below are all examples of lock-in effects in the old system, making users remain using incumbent technologies. Quite naturally, a force created to enforce incumbent technologies, thus reducing adoption of novel technologies, makes a barrier to adoption.

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22 The barriers are explained as (Sandén and Azar, 2005; Klitkou et al., 2015):

• Technological interrelatedness – Dominant design technologies depend on supporting technologies up- and downstream. To create a technology shift, there is then also needed to reconstruct or recreate the supporting technologies.

• Vested interests – The technological system have made capital and knowledge investments in the incumbent dominant design. Therefore, payoff is depending on the old system to keep functioning along the same technological trajectory. Examples of vested interests are firms that have invested in a knowledge base and expertise within an incumbent technology and academics who have made a career based on a specific knowledge base.

• Bounded rationality – There is a social and engineering consensus about how a technology is expected to be designed, what materials are to be used etc. This limits the technological evolution to these design expectations, despite that there may be grander technological possibilities.

• Learning effects – As a technology diffuses, the system learns to use it efficiently. For example, construction firms, industries providing material and components, as well as service and maintenance grow more experienced and skilful with time. This decrease cost and improve quality, and thus, makes incumbent technologies more competitive.

• Network externalities – As the number of users increase, the benefit for each individual user improves. Standardization of a technology improves network externalities, as it aligns development to make it compatible over a wider range of users.

• The differentiation of power – Strong industry players may have great influence on a market and use this influence to support endemic interests. Governments often reinforce the asymmetries of power through regulation that favors the incumbent transportation regime.

However, there are also regulations designed to improve the development of novel, sustainable technologies such as regional and national targets, tax rebates and exemptions, and R&D funding.

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23

4. Methodology

The following chapter presents the methodology of the study, starting with describing the selection of research design. Thereafter, the details of the pre-study, the literature and the empirical components are addressed. Lastly, the quality of the research as well as the ethical considerations are accounted for. Describing the methodology is important for proving transparency and rigidity to the study and the results which it provides.

4.1 Research Design

In order to answer the research question, an exploratory case study was conducted. Due to the scarcity of previous studies in the field of users within ERS, this was deemed suitable as it deepens the understanding of the phenomenon (Eisenhardt, 1989). Moreover, the chosen methodology was an appropriate research design since the answers to the identified research question and the supporting questions do not have a clear set of outcomes (Baxter and Jack, 1990). The study was structured into two phases: a pre-study phase and a case study phase.

During the pre-study, the focus of the study was set to explore the transport industry and the current state of ERS in Sweden. This phase aided to steer the project in the right direction and identify the scope of the study, as well as enable a more refined problem formulation. The second phase consisted of a case study, where potential ERS users were interviewed, and a review of multiple sources of written empirical material. This phase also included a deeper exploration of the pilot on highway 73, in order to provide an illustrative case of the identified dynamics.

The case study was conducted in a qualitative manner. This was considered suitable given the exploratory approach and the purpose of the research, as it would allow for studying a smaller number of cases in detail. If a quantitative approach was used, the complexity of the phenomena might have been reduced too much (Blomkvist & Hallin, 2014). An alteration between an inductive and deductive research approach was practiced. This made the data collection more flexible and enabled adjustments throughout the research when insights based on new findings emerged. The different phases are explained more in detail in the next sections.

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24 4.1.1 Conceptual Framework

A conceptual framework is presented (see Figure 6) in order to clearly state the system boundaries, define relationships between actors and sort available information (Baxter and Jack, 2008). The scope of the research includes a brief analysis of the implications that a technology shift to ERS would have on the users, as well as studying implications identified from the SNM concept. After this, interests for adoption are investigated using theories on Actor Rationales. Thereafter, barriers towards adoption of ERS are analyzed, using theories on Path Dependency and Lock-in Effects. This further leads to an analysis of how barriers may be minimized through efforts from different actors. The entire study is focusing on the ERS user perspective to analyze adoption of the technology in an early stage of ERS development. This excludes for example any deeper analysis of system providers, unless it makes direct implications on the adoption of ERS.

Figure 6 - Scope of research illustrated by the Conceptual Framework

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25 4.2 Literature Review

The literature review was carried out continually between January to March and took an iterative approach by adjusting direction as the goal of thesis became clearer. The review was conducted using sources such as Web of Science, Google Scholar, KTHB-Primo. The sources were used as they offer a wide range of relevant articles and are easy to use. The aim with the literature review was to build a good foundation for the authors to further analyze the complexity of the barriers and opportunities that user encounter when transitioning to ERS.

Therefore, the review was centered around finding literature related to system transformation, market creation, barriers towards adoption, path dependency and business models.

The literature review was divided into two steps. The first part took an inductive approach and covered a brief review of existing literature within the identified areas to get a better idea of the existing research. The second part was conducted in a more deductive way and included looking deeper into the identified areas and finding theories and models that are suitable for describing the identified case.

4.3 Data Collection

For the empirical components of the thesis, both primary and secondary sources of data were used. The primary sources consisted of interviews with different actors related to ERS. Other sources of primary information were gathered in person by the authors at conventions and workshops related to ERS development. Secondary sources of information were mainly written reports and documentation concerning ERS and transportation. These were used to deepen the understanding about ERS development and the electrification of the transport sector, along with understanding the pilot project at highway 73 and its surrounding area. The process of gathering different data and information is further described in the following sections.

4.3.1 Pre-study

The pre-study took an inductive approach, as the aim was to build a broad base of knowledge within the area. The main focus was to conduct meetings and interviews, as well as reviewing relevant documents. First of all, meetings with ElectReon was held in order to be introduced to

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26 the project and learn more about the company and their projects. The purpose of these meetings was also to get a better understanding of the technology behind ElectReon’s inductive ERS, since this was crucial for building well-grounded problematizations later on in the project.

Having a solid understanding of the technology is also needed in order to understand the implications and opportunities it poses for users. ElectReon has throughout the project supported the work and enabled contacts with external actors, much valuable for the proceeding of the study.

Several meetings with the Swedish Transport Administrations has been carried out, as they take a central role in the Swedish ERS development. This has enabled a better understanding of both the current state of ERS in Sweden and the plans for the future. Since development within ERS is proceeding at a fast pace, this cooperation with the Swedish Transport Administration made it possible to stay updated and well-informed. Besides from the meetings and interviews, the pre-study included a brief literature review of publications related to ERS, in the interest of getting a better understanding of the current landscape as well as the user perspective. The pre-study further confirmed that little research has been made on actual business cases with a user perspective.

4.3.2 Case Study

The aim of the case study was to review the transport industry in a large context and target actors on the potential ERS user market. The reason for studying users from a wider context is that all actors contribute with valuable insights on the ERS development, and the dynamics between them have implications on their individual interest for ERS. Also, the broad take on the user perspective enables an exploration of market forces and power structures, something that can play a significant role in future ERS development. In order be able to make well- informed conclusions on the user perspective, six different types of users were interviewed:

o Transport buyer o Freight Forwarder o Transport provider o Logistic Hub

o Public Bus Transport o Commercial Bus Transport

Exploring Barriers towards Adoption within Electric Road Systems

Exploring Barriers towards Adoption within Electric Road Systems

A Case Study of the User Perspective

FRIDA BORIN

LINNEA TJERNLUND

Exploring Barriers towards Adoption within Electric Road Systems:

A Case Study of the User Perspective by

Borin, Frida Tjernlund, Linnea

Utredning av Barriärer mot Övergång till Elvägar:

En fallstudie av Användarperspektivet av

Borin, Frida Tjernlund, Linnea

Abstract

Table of Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of Acronyms

Forewords and Acknowledgements

1. Introduction

2. Research Context

3. Theoretical Foundation

4. Methodology