System Alternatives Planning the

LEAP:

A Descrip

the LDC Energy

Alternatives Planning

System

ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT I N AFRICA 8

LEAP :

A D E S C R I P T I O N OF THE LDC ENERGY A L T E R N A T I V E S P L A N N I N G SYSTEM

Paul D. R a s k i n

Pub1 i shed b y

THE BEIJER INSTITUTE The Royal Swedish Academy o f S c i e n c e s Stockholm, Sweden

and THE SCANDINAVIAN INSTITUTE

OF AFRICAN STUDIES Uppsal a, Sweden

The s e r i e s "Energy, Environment and Development i n A f r i c a " i s pub- l i s h e d j o i n t l y by t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i - t u t e o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s , w i t h f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t f r o m t h e Swedish I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development A u t h o r i t y (SIDA). T h i s book, t o g e t h e r w i t h a s e r i e s o f companion volumes, r e p o r t s on a B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e study, t h e "Kenyan Fuelwood P r o j e c t " , undertaken j o i n t l y w i t h t h e Government o f Kenya.

ISSN 0281-8515 ISBN 91-7106-247-5

@ The B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n S t u d i e s 1986

P r i n t e d i n Sweden by

Bohusl aningens AB, Uddeval l a 1986

T h i s Volume p r e s e n t s t h e LEAP (LDC Energy A l t e r n a t i v e s P l a n n i n g ) System, a computerized energy i n f o r m a t i o n management system s p e c i f i c a l l y developed f o r energy p l a n n i n g i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . The need f o r such a comprehensive d a t a h a n d l i n g system grew o u t o f t h e work w i t h t h e Kenyan Fuelwood P r o j e c t (KFP), an energy p l a n n i n g s t u d y c a r r i e d o u t j o i n t l y by t h e Kenyan i 4 i n i s t r y o f Energy and t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e (see Volume 1 i n t h i s s e r i e s ) . The f i r s t v e r s i o n o f LEAP was used f o r p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and p r o j e c t i o n s w i t h i n t h e KFP, and t h e System has s i n c e t h e n been e x t e n s i v e l y developed, r e v i s e d and r e f i n e d i n t o a comprehensive, u s e r - f r i e n d l y p l a n n i n g t o o l . LEAP i s a l r e a d y o p e r a t i n g i n a few d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and i s now b e i n g i n s t a l l e d i n o t h e r s . A d d i t i o n a l l y , i t has been a p p l i e d t o energy s e c t o r a n a l y s i s i n s e v e r a l more T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n r e l a t i o n t o fuelwood and r u r a l energy i s s u e s .

I am deeply i n d e b t e d t o t h e a u t h o r o f t h i s Volume, Dr. Paul Raskin, f o r a l l t h e work he has p u t i n t o i t s p r e p a r a t i o n . I am a l s o i n d e b t e d t o Dr. Phi1 O'Keefe who managed t h e Kenyan Fuelwood P r o j e c t and p l a y e d a l a r g e p a r t i n t h e i n i t i a l stages o f t h e development o f LEAP. I a l s o wish t o thank my Deputy D i r e c t o r , Dr. L a r s K r i s t o f e r s o n , f o r h i s involvement i n t h i s work.

Funding f o r t h e Kenyan 1,loodfuel P r o j e c t was made a v a i l a b l e f r o m t h e Government o f t h e Netherlands (IIBZ), t h e Government o f t h e Federal Republic o f Germany (GTZ/GATE) and t h e Government o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o f America (U.S.A. I.D. ) . I n a d d i t i o n , f u n d i n g f o r t h e development and r e f i n e m e n t o f LEAP has been p r o v i d e d by SIDA ( t h e Swedish

I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development A u t h o r i t y ) , U.S.A.I.D., t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e , and ESRG ( t h e Energy Systems Research Group).

Gordon T. Goodman B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e

November 1985

ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT I N AFRICA

Other t i t l e s i n t h i s s e r i e s :

1. Energy and Development i n Kenya: O p p o r t u n i t i e s and C o n s t r a i n t s P. O'Keefe, P. Raskin and S. Bernow (Eds)

2. SADCC: Energy and Development t o t h e Year 2000 J.T.C. Simoes (Ed)

3. Energy and Development i n Southern A f r i c a : SADCC Country S t u d i e s , P a r t I

P. 0 ' Keefe and B. Munslow (Eds)

4. Energy and Development i n Southern A f r i c a : SADCC Country S t u d i e s , P a r t I 1

P. O'Keefe and B. Munslow (Eds)

5. M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y and Economic Development i n t h e SADCC C o u n t r i e s

R. Peet

6. Wood, Energy and Households: P e r s p e c t i v e s on Rural Kenya C. Barnes, J. Ensminger and P.OIKeefe (Eds)

7. Energy Use i n R u r a l Kenya: Household Demands and R u r a l T r a n s f o r m a t i o n

R. H o s i e r

Ack now1 edgement

LEAP was c r e a t e d t o p e r f o r m energy p r o j e c t i o n s and p o l i c y assessments f o r t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e ' s Kenya Fuelwood P r o j e c t i n Kenya. I t was f u r t h e r enhanced and r e a d i e d f o r t r a n s f e r t o developing c o u n t r y p l a n n i n g agencies t h r o u g h f u n d i n g support from t h e Swedish I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s Agency f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development. LEAP a p p l i c a t i o n s have subsequently taken p l a c e i n a dozen c o u n t r i e s .

While t o o numerous t o name here, scores o f energy p l a n n e r s and r e s e a r c h e r s

--

surveyors, f o r e s t e r s , s t a t i s t i c i a n s , economists, s c i e n t i s t s , and engineers - - have made s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s . E x p l i c i t acknowledgement i s due Stephen Bernow and David White, my co- workers a t ESRG; P r o f e s s o r Gordon Goodman, Dr.

L a r s K r i s t o f e r s o n , and Dr. P h i 1 O'Keefe o f t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e whose c o n t i n u i n g guidance and s u p p o r t have been e s s e n t i a l ; and P a t r i c k Nyoike and L i n c o l n B a i l e y o f t h e Kenya M i n i s t r y o f Energy and Regional Development f o r h e l p i n g t o make i t a l l work on t h e ground. F i n a l l y , thanks t o Faye Camardo who typed a t h a n k l e s s m a n u s c r i p t i n h e r usual superb way.

Paul D. Raskin

-i

.

CONTENTS

. . .

CONTENTS i

L I S T O F T A B L E S

. . .

ⁱⁱ

. . .

L I S T O F F I G U R E S iii

P a r t I: WHAT I S LEAP?

. . .

¹

. . .

1

.

BACKGROUND 1

. . .

2

.

OBJECTIVES 4

. . .

3

.

LEAPSTRUCTURE 7

4

.

USING LEAP

. . .

¹⁰

P a r t I 1 : THE CORE PROGRAMS

. . .

^{1 3}

5

.

^DEMAND

. . .

^{1 4}

6

.

TRANSFORMATION

. . .

^{2 6}

7

.

^RESOURCE

. . .

^{6 3}

P a r t 111: THEMACROPROGRAMS

. . .

⁸⁸

8

.

DEMOGRAPHIC

. . .

^{8 9}

9

.

AGRICULTURE

. . . . . .

^{9 6}

10

.

^{ECONOMIC 1 0 5}

P a r t I V : SCENARIO ANALYSES

. . .

^{1 2 1}

11

.

CREATING SCENARIOS

. . .

^{1 2 2}

1 2

.

COSTING PROGRAM

. . .

^{1 3 3}

L I S T OF TABLES

T a b l e N o

.

P a g e

. . .

1 SAMPLE BRANCH L I S T STRUCTURE 1 8

. . .

2 DEMAND PROGRAM CALCULATIONS 2 0

3 WOOD M I L L I N G AND HARVESTING CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{3 0}

4 CHARCOAL K I L N MODULE CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{3 4}

. . .

5 ETHANOL MODULE CALCULATIONS 3 6

6 BIOGAS MODULE CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{3 8}

7 ELECTRIC MODULE CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{4 2}

8 O I L AND GAS MODULE CALCULATIONS

. . .

47 9 COAL AND COKE MODULE CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{5 1}

. . .

1 0 SAMPLE OF LAND TYPE SET 66

11 LAND USE ADJUSTMENTS

. . .

^{7 0}

1 2 WOOD PRODUCTION CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{7 3}

1 3 AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION CALCULATIONS

. . .

⁸¹

1 4 DEMOGRAPHIC PROGRAM CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{9 0}

1 5 AGRICULTURE PROGRAM CALCULATIONS

. . .

9 8 1 6 ECONOMIC PROGRAM ECONOMY-WIDE CALCULATIONS ^{. . . S . .} 108 1 7 ECONOMIC PROGRAM INCOME D I S T R I B U T I O N CALCULATIONS

. .

^{1 1 5}

18 POLICY CONTRIBUTIONS TO CLOSING THE GAP BETWEEN

WOOD REQUIREMENTS AND S U P P L I E S

. . .

^{1 3 1}

1 9 DEMAND EQUIPMENT COST CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{1 3 5}

2 0 PRIMARY ENERGY RESOURCE COST CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{1 3 7}

2 1 ENERGY TRANSFORMATION COST CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{1 3 9}

2 2 WOOD RESOURCE COST CALCULATIONS

. . .

^{1 4 3}

L I S T OF FIGURES

F i g u r e N o

.

LEAP MODEL . GENERAL STRUCTURE

. . .

⁹

SAMPLE LEAP MENUS

. . .

¹¹

LEAP MENU STRUCTURE

. . .

^{1 2}

OVERVIEW OF DEMAND PROGRAM

. . .

^{1 4}

HYPOTHETICAL A C T I V I T Y LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THE

DEMAND STRUCTURE

. . .

^{1 6}

SAMPLE BRANCH STRUCTURE . LEAP DEMAND

. . .

¹⁸

SAMPLE REPORT: NATIONAL END-USE FUEL CONSUMPTION

. . .

^{2 1}

SAMPLE REPORT: FUEL CONSUMPTION BY LEVEL

. . .

^{2 2}

SAMPLE REPORT: F I N A L CONSUMPTION FOR EACH REPORTING

Y E A R B Y L E V E L

. . .

^{2 4}

10 SAMPLE REPORT: PROJECTED FUEL REOUIREMENTS BY SECTOR

. .

^{2 5}

OVERVIEW OF TRANSFORMATION PROGRAM

. . .

^{2 7}

COMPARATIVE CONVERSION E F F I C I E N C I E S FOR FUELWOOD AND

CHARCOAL I N KENYA

. . .

3 2 PETROLEUM BALANCES

. . .

^{4 6}

SAMPLE REPORT: TOTAL FUEL REQUIREMENTS

. . .

^{5 3}

SAMPLE REPORT: RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS

. . .

^{5 4}

SAMPLE REPORT: F O S S I L AND BIOMASS ENERGY REQUIREMENTS I N PHYSICAL U N I T S

. . .

^{5 5}

SAMPLE REPORT: AGGREGATE ENERGY BALANCE

. . .

^{5 6}

SAMPLE REPORT: WOOD M I L L I N G AND HARVESTING MODULE

. . .

^{5 7}

SAMPLE REPORT: CHARCOAL K I L N MODULE

. . .

^{5 8}

SAMPLE REPORT: BIOGAS MODULE

. . .

^{5 8}

SAMPLE REPORT: ETHANOL MODULE

. . .

^{5 9}

SAMPLE REPORT: E L E C T R I C I T Y MODULE

. . .

^{6 0}

SAMPLE REPORT: O I L AND GAS MODULE

. . .

6 1 SAMPLE REPORT: COAL AND COKE MODULE

. . .

^{6 2}

OVERVIEW OF RESOURCE PROGRAM

. . .

^{6 3}

SAMPLE LAND D I V I S I O N S

. . .

^{6 5}

PRIMARY WOOD RESOURCE FLOWS

. . .

^{6 8}

NATURAL FORESTS WOOD SUPPLY

. . .

^{6 9}

SAMPLE REPORT: LAND USE PROJECTIONS

. . .

^{8 4}

SAMPLE REPORT: AGRICULTURAL PROJECTIONS

. . .

^{8 5}

SAMPLE REPORT: WOOD STOCKS AND SUPPLIES

. . .

^{8 6}

SAMPLE REPORT: WOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

. . . .

^{8 7}

SAMPLE REPORT: POPULATION BY SUBAREA AND COHORT

. . . .

^{9 3}

SAMPLE REPORT: SUFfMARY POPULATION PROJECTIONS

. . .

^{9 4}

SAMPLE REPORT: SUPNARY HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

. . .

^{9 5}

SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF AGRICULTURE MACRO PROGRAM

. .

9 7

L I S T OF FIGURES ( C o n t i n u e d )

F i g u r e N o

.

SAMPLE REPORT: REQUIREMENTS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

.

¹⁰¹

SAMPLE REPORT: SOURCES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

. . . .

^{1 0 2}

SAMPLE REPORT: CROP PROJECTIONS

. . .

^{1 0 3}

SAMPLE REPORT: LIVESTOCK PROJECTIONS

. . .

1 0 4 ECONOMY-WIDE MODEL RESOURCE FLOWS

. . .

1 0 7 SAMPLE REPORT: ECONOMY-WIDE PROJECTIONS

. . .

^{1 1 7}

SAMPLE REPORT: GDP BY SECTOR

. . .

¹¹⁸

SAMPLE REPORT: INCOME D I S T R I B U T I O N PROJECTIONS

. . . .

^{1 1 9}

SAMPLE REPORT: A C T I V I T Y I N D I C E S

. . .

^{1 2 0}

PETROLEUM IMPORTS FOR INTERNAL DEMAND . I L L U S T R A T I V E

BASE CASE

. . .

^{1 2 5}

NATIONAL WOOD REPORT DEMAND AND SUPPLY . I L L U S T R A T I V E BASE CASE

. . .

^{1 2 6}

WOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND . BASE DEMAND . BASE RESOURCE . REGION I

. . .

^{1 2 8}

WOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND

.

BASE DEMAND

.

BASE RESOURCE

.

REGION I 1

. . .

^{1 2 9}

CLOSING THE WOOD GAP . WOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND

. . .

^{1 3 2}

SAMPLE REPORT: FUEL AND RESOURCE CHANGES

. . .

1 4 7 SAMPLE REPORT: COST IMPACTS BY CATEGORY

. . .

^{1 4 8}

SAMPLE REPORT: COST/BENEFITS SUPNARY AND FOREIGN

EXCHANGE IMPACTS

. . .

^{1 4 9}

P a r t I : WHAT I S LEAP?

1. BACKGROUND

The LDC Energy A l t e r n a t i v e s P l a n n i n g (LEAP) System i s a com- p u t e r i z e d framework f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f energy p o l i c y and p l a n n i n g o p t i o n s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . LEAP i s designed as a f l e x i b l e and a c c e s s i b l e t o o l t o enable energy p l a n n e r s and decision- makers t o i d e n t i f y and q u a n t i f y t h e long- range i m p l i c a t i o n s o f energy p o l i c y a1 t e r n a t i v e s .

I n d e s i g n i n g and e x e c u t i n g an e f f e c t i v e energy plan, t h e p l a n n e r must c o n s i d e r wide- ranging i s s u e s

--

f u e l sources and p r i c e s , r u r a l energy s t r a t e g i e s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l and land- use t r a d e o f f s , management o f energy demands and c o n s e r v a t i o n , and changing economic and demographic p a t t e r n s . E s t a b l i s h i n g an o p t i m a l s e t o f energy p o l i c i e s and investment programs r e q u i r e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f d a t a g a t h e r i n g and an a n a l y t i c framework f o r assessing a l t e r n a t i v e s t r a t e g i e s .

A computerized m o d e l l i n g system can be v e r y u s e f u l i n energy p l a n n i n g . A p r o p e r l y designed system can serve t h r e e major f u n c t i o n s :

(1)

as an i n f o r m a t i o n bank and guide t o d a t a development i n e s t a b l i s h - i n g n a t i o n a l energy accounts; ( 2 ) as an i n s t r u m e n t f o r l o n g - t e r m p r o j e c t i o n s o f supplyldemand c o n f i g u r a t i o n s under a l t e r n a t i v e development scenarios; and ( 3 ) as a v e h i c l e f o r i d e n t i f y i n g and e v a l u a t i n g p o l i c y and technology o p t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o near and l o n g - t e r m supplyldemand balance, c a p i t a l requirements, c o s t s and b e n e f i t s and f o r e i g n exchange impacts.

The LEAP System was c r e a t e d t o p r o v i d e such c a p a b i l i t i e s . W i t h i t t h e a n a l y s t may develop n a t i o n a l energy accounts and p i c t u r e s o f t h e f u t u r e e v o l u t i o n o f energy supplyldemand balances w i t h as much d e t a i l as d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y p e r m i t s . F u r t h e r , i t p r o v i d e s a framework f o r more d e t a i l e d d a t a development as p l a n n i n g needs become more r e f i n e d . I t can be used t o e s t a b l i s h p r o j e c t i o n s o f i m p o r t r e q u i r e - ments, l a n d use impacts, e l e c t r i c power p l a n t c a p a c i t y needs, t h e

s t a t u s o f biomass resources, and o t h e r key consequences o f a l t e r n a t i v e energy scenarios.

The LEAP user begins by e s t a b l i s h i n g a b a s e l i n e s c e n a r i o ( o r

"Base Case"); i t i s e s s e n t i a l l y a " business- as- usual'' f o r e c a s t i n c o r p o r a t i n g c u r r e n t t r e n d s and f i r m energy plans. The f o r e c a s t s a l l o w p l a n n e r s t o examine t h e e v o l u t i o n o f energy accounts and t o i d e n t i f y t h e l o c a t i o n , t i m i n g , and magnitude o f p o t e n t i a l problems i n t h e b a s e l i n e s u p p l y and demand balances. LEAP can then be used t o t e s t a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s t o address these problems, and e v a l u a t e and compare t h e i r p h y s i c a l and economic consequences. Among t h e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s c o u l d be:

-

wood s u p p l y i n c r e a s e s (e.g., l o n g - t e r m programs t o i n c r e a s e p r o d u c t i o n t h r o u g h managed woodlots, r e f o r e s t a t i o n p r o j e c t s , urban g r e e n b e l t s )

-

domestic o i l p r o d u c t i o n (e.g., i n c r e a s e d r e f i n e r y c a p a c i t y o r domestic crude e x t r a c t i o n )

-

e f f i c i e n c y improvements (e.g., cooking stoves, c h a r c o a l k i l n s , automobiles, i n d u s t r i a l b o i l e r s )

-

f u e l s w i t c h i n g (e.g., charcoal t o p e t r o l e u m products, f o s s i l f u e l s t o e l e c t r i c i t y , o i l t o c o a l )

-

e l e c t r i c system p l a n n i n g (e.g., a l t e r n a t i v e g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y plans, r u r a l e l e c t r i f ~ c a t i o n )

-

l a n d use (e.g., m i x between use o f h i g h p o t e n t i a l land f o r food, f u e l , e x p o r t c r o p s )

-

non- conventional sources (e.g., s o l a r h e a t i n g , wind d r i v e n i r r i g a t i o n , biogas a p p l i c a t i o n s , e t h a n o l , producer gas)

-

i n c r e a s i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y (e.g., mechanization, i r r i g a t i o n )

The LEAP s t r u c t u r e a l l o w s f o r c o n s i d e r a b l e freedom i n t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f long- range energy scenarios. The user may v a r y t h e t i m e frame, d e t a i l e d consumption p a t t e r n s , l i n k a g e s t o p r i m a r y energy sources, demographic and economic growth p r o j e c t i o n s , e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n system c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , p e t r o l e u m s u p p l y assumptions, l a n d use, wood a v a i l a b i l i t y , and so f o r t h .

I n s h o r t , LEAP can h e l p p r o v i d e q u a n t i t a t i v e i n d i c a t i o n s o f l i k e l y f u t u r e t r o u b l e s p o t s i n a c o u n t r y ' s energy system, t h e promis- i n g areas f o r p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n , and t h e p h y s i c a l and economic consequences o f implementing a1 t e r n a t i v e energy s t r a t e g i e s . The system has been s p e c i f i c a l l y designed f o r use i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e whose energy budget remains h e a v i l y dependent on biomass, i n c l u d i n g wood f u e l s .

Three major f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e d e c i s i o n t o c r e a t e such a p l a n n i n g t o o l : f i r s t , t h e p r a c t i c a l need f o r an a n a l y t i c framework;

second, t h e emergence o f h i g h c a p a b i l i t y / l o w c o s t microcomputer hardware; and t h i r d , t h e c o n v i c t i o n t h a t t h e t r a n s f e r o f a w e l l - designed, computer-based system can c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e s e l f - r e l i a n c e and e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f LDC energy p l a n n i n g .

The need f o r energy p l a n n i n g s o f t w a r e f i r s t arose as a p r a c t i c a l m a t t e r i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a comprehensive energy assessment o f Kenya.*

There, d e t a i l e d analyses were t o be performed o f biomass requirements and a v a i l a b i l i t y , t h e t i m i n g and magnitude o f f u t u r e problems o f biomass i n s u f f i c i e n c y and wood stock d e p l e t i o n were t o be i d e n t i f i e d , and p o l i c y o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r addressing p r o j e c t e d e n e r g y - r e l a t e d problems were t o be evaluated, a1 l i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a comprehensive n a t i o n a l energy assessment. To process t h e l a r g e and expanding d a t a base needed f o r such a n a l y s i s and t o p e r f o r m numerous s c e n a r i o s and e v a l u a t i o n s , t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f s y s t e m a t i c computer- based energy i n f o r m a t i o n management and p l a n n i n g became apparent. Software was

*The Kenya Fuelwood P r o j e c t (1980- 82) was conducted under t h e j o i n t auspices o f Kenya's M i n i s t r y o f Energy and t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e o f t h e Royal Swedish Academy o f Science.

r e q u i r e d which p r o v i d e d a d e t a i l e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f r u r a l energy i s s u e s ( l a n d - u s e p a t t e r n s , fuelwood s t o c k s and y i e l d s , b i o e n e r g y o p t i o n s , e t c . ) as we1 l as t r e a t m e n t o f c o n v e n t i o n a l "commercial f u e l

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i s s u e s . Since, upon review, no adequate system was found, t h e development o f LEAP was embarked on.

A t t h e same time, t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f a new g e n e r a t i o n o f p o w e r f u l s m a l l computers (" microcomputers" ) meant t h a t such a system c o u l d be implemented on r e l a t i v e l y i n e x p e n s i v e hardware. T h i s i m p o r t a n t breakthrough i n computer technology r a i s e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y , f o r t h e f i r s t time, o f wide d i s s e m i n a t i o n o f s o p h i s t i c a t e d energy p l a n n i n g software. F u r t h e r , i t was r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e process o f t r a n s f e r r i n g t h e energy p l a n n i n g system t o t h e LDC government presented an i m p o r t a n t and unprecedented o p p o r t u n i t y f o r t h e t e c h n i c a l t r a i n i n g o f l o c a l energy p l a n n i n g s t a f f . I t appeared t h a t a system l i k e LEAP could, i n many LDCs, c o n t r i b u t e t o more thorough ongoing management o f data, b e t t e r c o o r d i n a t i o n w i t h i n government on g o a l s and assumptions, more t i m e l y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f p r i o r i t i e s f o r a c t i o n , and g e n e r a l l y more e f f e c t i v e decision- making. The development o f LEAP was t h u s conceived as an o p p o r t u n i t y t o c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e b u i l d i n g o f n a t i o n a l energy p l a n n i n g c a p a c i t i e s .

2. OBJECTIVES

The fundamental goal o f energy p l a n n i n g i s t o e s t a b l i s h a s e t o f e f f e c t i v e p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s , program measures, and a workable investment s t r a t e g y f o r a c h i e v i n g t h o s e o b j e c t i v e s . S u f f i c i e n t energy sources must be a v a i l a b l e f o r b o t h t h e modern s e c t o r s , which g e n e r a l l y r e l y p r i m a r i l y on commercial ( o f t e n imported) f u e l s , and t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r s , which c o n t i n u e t o depend h e a v i l y on indigenous biomass energy. P o l i c y i n i t i a t i v e s and investment d e c i s i o n s must i n v a r i a b l y be made under severe f i n a n c i a l c o n s t r a i n t s . Consequently, t h e a c c u r a t e and t i m e l y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f investment p r i o r i t i e s becomes c r u c i a l . For example, a commitment t o a c o n v e n t i o n a l , c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e energy s u p p l y p r o j e c t may be l e s s c o s t e f f e c t i v e i n meeting n a t i o n a l socio- economic o b j e c t i v e s than a package o f d i s p e r s e d s m a l l - s c a l e measures. Such t r a d e o f f s need t o be e v a l u a t e d i n an i n t e g r a t e d framework.

A l l t h e b a s i c s t r a t e g i e s f o r a d j u s t i n g energy f l o w s t o meet changing needs

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f u e l s w i t c h i n g , indigenous r e s o u r c e development, c o n s e r v a t i o n , new and renewable energy o p t i o n s

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must be blended i n t o a comprehensive plan. T h i s p l a n should be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h p a r a l l e l p l a n s and p r o j e c t i o n s emerging from o t h e r governmental u n i t s addressing such areas as a g r i c u l t u r e p o l i c y , f o r e s t r y programs, demographic p a t t e r n s , and economic t a r g e t s . The development o f an e f f e c t i v e energy p l a n i s t h u s n e c e s s a r i l y a demanding and ongoing a c t i v i t y .

I d e a l l y , energy p l a n n i n g should be c a r r i e d o u t by l o c a l personnel w i t h i n t h e a p p r o p r i a t e government agency. The b u i l d i n g o f and r e 1 ia n c e on l o c a l c a p a b i l i t i e s t o p e r f o r m energy p1 anning s t r e n g t h e n s indigenous i n s t i t u t i o n s and t h u s c o n t r i b u t e s t o development. I t a l l o w s f o r c o n t i n u i t y and i n t e q r a t i o n o f t h e ~ l a n n i n q orocess which cannot be achieved t h r o u g h dependence on t r a n s ' i t o r y f o r e i g n experts.

And, e s p e c i a l l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o bioenergy o p t i o n s , l o c a l p1 anning p l a c e s a n a l y s t s more f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e c o u n t r y ' s p a r t i c u l a r p a t t e r n s and customs i n t h e f o r e f r o n t o f d e v i s i n g p o l i c i e s f o r b l e n d i n g c o n s e r v a t i o n and f u e l - s w i t c h i n g s t r a t e g i e s i n t o l o c a l l i f e s t y l e s .

C u r r e n t l y , t h e fundamental importance o f n a t i o n a l energy p l a n n i n g i s n o t u n i v e r s a l l y recognized. The p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g an adequate p l a n n i n g c a p a b i l i t y a r e r a r e l y met. These i n c l u d e an i n s t i t u t i o n a l commitment t o t h e p l a n n i n g process

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s y s t e m a t i c c o l l e c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g o f data, p e r i o d i c r e v i e w and update o f g o a l s and issues, a c t i v e r e v i e w o f program elements

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and t h e a t t r a c t i o n o f h i g h q u a l i t y s t a f f i n s u f f i c i e n t numbers t o s u s t a i n s e r i o u s planning.

Furthermore, e x t e r n a l f u n d i n g has f r e q u e n t l y been used f o r i n d i v i d u a l energy s u p p l y p r o j e c t s whose j u s t i f i c a t i o n w i t h i n a comprehensive p o l i c y framework may be dubious. Meanwhile, t h e ongoing p r o j e c t o f b u i l d i n g t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s and "human c a p i t a l " f o r c r e a t i n g such a framework has o f t e n been neglected.

LEAP, as a microcomputer- based energy p l a n n i n g and accounting system, seeks t o f a c i l i t a t e p l a n n i n g , promote t h e t r a i n i n g o f governmental s t a f f , p r o v i d e a s t r u c t u r e f o r d a t a development and

management, and a l l o w t h e agency r e s p o n s i b l e f o r energy p l a n n i n g t o e v a l u a t e and p r i o r i t i z e new p o l i c y and t e c h n o l o g y i n i t i a t i v e s . While n o t a s u b s t i t u t e f o r i n t e l l i g e n t and i m a g i n a t i v e energy program development, a t o o l such as LEAP can h e l p t h e decision- maker t o i d e n t i f y , e v a l u t e , and defend p r o p e r approaches.

Given t h i s p e r s p e c t i v e , LEAP was developed as a t o o l which would c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f governmental p l a n n i n g s t a f f i n a l l aspects o f energy p l a n n i n g

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d a t a development, energy accounting, p r o j e c t i o n s o f s u p p l y and demand, and assessments o f a1 t e r n a t i v e energy s t r a t e g i e s f o r b o t h t h e modern and r u r a l s e c t o r s . To be e f f e c t i v e f o r t h i s purpose, c e r t a i n broad design c r i t e r i a need t o be s a t i s f i e d : t h e s o f t w a r e must be comprehensive, f l e x i b l e , expandable, and " u s e r - f r i e n d l y . "

F i r s t , t o p r o v i d e an adequate p l a n n i n g framework, t h e s o f t w a r e needs t o be comprehensive, t r a c i n g energy f l o w s back f r o m t h e p o i n t o f end-use consumption t h r o u g h t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f energy forms t o p r i m a r y energy r e s o u r c e s and imports. I n p a r t i c u l a r , i t needs t o address t h e s p e c i a l problems o f t h e r u r a l s e c t o r , such as fuelwood s u f f i c i e n c y , land- use p a t t e r n s , and p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r b i o e n e r g y programs. While fuelwood and o t h e r biomass f u e l s remain o f g r e a t importance i n most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , t h e y have n o t r e c e i v e d commensurate program e f f o r t . The legacy o f piecemeal energy p o l i c y development, l a c k o f c o o r d i n a t e d p l a n n i n g , i n s u f f i c i e n t f o c u s on l o n g - t e r m r u r a l energy needs, and a t t r a c t i o n t o l a r g e c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e p r o j e c t s r e q u i r e s u r g e n t a t t e n t i o n . P r o p e r l y designed s o f t w a r e can a c c e l e r a t e t h e process by p r o v i d i n g a s t r u c t u r e f o r d e v e l o p i n g data, a n a l y z i n g t h e s i t u a t i o n , and c a p t u r i n g t h e i n t e r p l a y between r u r a l energy p a t t e r n s , commercial f u e l a v a i l a b i l i t y , demographic and l a n d - use trends, a g r i c u l t u r a l p o l i c y , and n a t i o n a l economic performance.

F u r t h e r , t h e r u r a l energy p i c t u r e needs t o be examined a t a h i g h degree of s p a t i a l d i s a g g r e g a t i o n i n o r d e r t o c a p t u r e r e l e v a n t l o c a l f a c t o r s such as e c o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s , wood cover c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , a g r i c u l t u r e p r a c t i c e s , fuelwood a c c e s s i b i l i t y , and so on.

As w e l l as b e i n g comprehensive, t h e s o f t w a r e must be f l e x i b l e . A major goal was t o b u i l d a program which c o u l d be used i n a wide v a r i e t y o f c o u n t r i e s and a p p l i c a t i o n s . Custom-made programs f o r each c o u n t r y would be p r o h i b i t i v e l y expensive, time-consuming and unnecessary. Also, t h e use o f common d a t a and program s t r u c t u r e s can be v a l u a b l e f o r m u l t i - c o u n t r y r e g i o n a l energy i n i t i a t i v e s ; p a r a l l e l d a t a s e t s can f a c i l i t a t e t h e exchange o f i n f o r m a t i o n and j o i n t p l a n n i n g . Therefore, t h e model needs t o be s u f f i c i e n t l y f l e x i b l e t o enable t h e user t o r e f l e c t t h e p a r t i c u l a r energyuse, geographic, and e c o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e c o u n t r y a p p l y i n g t h e system. The i d e a i s t o s u p p l y t h e canvas, brush, and drawing lessons so t h a t t h e users can p a i n t t h e i r own p i c t u r e s o f t h e i r energy landscapes.

T h i s i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o another i m p o r t a n t o b j e c t i v e : t h e software must be expandable. As p l a n n e r s enhance t h e i r d a t a base, as t h e d e s i r e d l e v e l o f d e t a i l increases, as new e n e r g y - r e l a t e d i s s u e s emerge w i t h time, i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t t h e new i n f o r m a t i o n can be

i n c o r p o r a t e d w i t h o u t r e q u i r i n g changes i n t h e computer software. The programs need t o be usable o v e r a wide range o f needs.

T y p i c a l l y , t h e f i r s t a p p l i c a t i o n s i n a g i v e n c o u n t r y may employ o v e r l y aggregate and perhaps incomplete data, w h i l e t h e i n i t i a l p r o j e c t i o n s and analyses may be r e l a t i v e l y s u p e r f i c i a l . Generally, s o l i d q u a n t i t a t i v e i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e o n l y f o r aggregate consumption o f and sources f o r commercial f u e l s . B u t as one moves e i t h e r t o noncommercial f u e l s (e.g., fuelwood, c h a r c o a l ) o r t o d i s a g g r e g a t e d energy use (e.g., breakdowns by economic s e c t o r s and end-uses) t h e e x i s t i n g d a t a base becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y u n r e l i a b l e o r undeveloped. Indeed, one o f t h e p r i m a r y e a r l y o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e c o m p u t e r i z a t i o n o f energy i n f o r m a t i o n i s t o e s t a b l i s h d a t a development needs and procedures. Then o v e r t i m e as t h e d a t a f o u n d a t i o n grows and t h e l e v e l o f s o p h i s t i c a t i o n increases, more d e t a i l e d analyses can be performed.

F i n a l l y , a major design o b j e c t i v e f o r LEAP was t o make t h e system e x t r e m e l y u s e r - f r i e n d l y . While r e q u i r i n g a b a s i c conceptual f o u n d a t i o n i n t h e elements o f energy a n a l y s i s , LEAP does n o t r e q u i r e any p r e v i o u s computer experience. Instead, i t r e l i e s h e a v i l y on i n t e r a c t i v e prompts t o t h e user, menu- driven command design, " s o f t "

d a t a e n t r y systems, and d e t a i l e d s u p p o r t i n g m a t e r i a l s such as a U s e r ' s Guide, d a t a development sheets, and background documentation.

3. LEAP STRUCTURE

LEAP i s an i n t e r a c t i v e computerized system c o n s i s t i n g o f seven programs: t h r e e " c o r e " energy f o r e c a s t i n g programs, t h r e e "macro"

programs f o r r e l a t e d socioeconomic analyses, and one " c o s t i n g " program f o r c a l c u l a t i n g t h e impacts o f a l t e r n a t i v e energy scenarios. The programs can be r u n independently, o r i n c o n c e r t , as d e s i r e d . Some o f t h e b a s i c i n t e r l i n k s a r e i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 1.

A t t h e c o r e o f t h e system l i e t h e b a s i c energy a c c o u n t i n g and f o r e c a s t i n g programs: Demand ( f o r t r a c k i n g t h e f i n a l f u e l r e q u i r e m e n t s b y s e c t o r , subsector, end-use and d e v i c e ) , T r a n s f o r m a t i o n ( f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e p r i m a r y r e s o u r c e r e q u i r e m e n t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f i n a l demands by t a k i n g account o f i n t e r m e d i a t e c o n v e r s i o n processes, imports, and e x p o r t s ) , and Resource ( f o r p r o j e c t i n g l a n d use changes and biomass p r o d u c t i o n , a v a i l a b i l i t y , and u t i l i z a t i o n ) . These c o r e programs a r e d e s c r i b e d i n d e t a i l i n P a r t 11.

While t h i s c o r e group o f programs can be r u n alone, LEAP a l s o i n c l u d e s t h r e e

macro

programs which can be used t o p r o v i d e a s e l f - c o n s i s t e n t s e t o f b a s i c socioeconomic f o r e c a s t s . The macro program f o r e c a s t s may t h e n be used as d a t a i n p u t s i n t o t h e c o r e programs, f o r t h e purpose o f p r o j e c t i n g energy demands.

The macro programs i n c l u d e : t h e Demographic program ( a c o h o r t / s u r v i v a l model f o r p r o j e c t i n g r e g i o n a l urban and r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n and households f o r user s e l e c t e d f e r t i l i t y / m o r t a l i t y s c e n a r i o s ) , t h e A g r i c u l t u r e program ( f o r t r a c k i n g t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l commodities, biomass wastes, and l a n d a l l o c a t i o n s , s u b j e c t t o consumption and e x p o r t t a r g e t s , l a n d a v a i l a b i l i t y and p r o d u c t i v i t y assumptions), and t h e Economic program ( f o r f o r e c a s t i n g n a t i o n a l economic s c e n a r i o s and c a l c u l a t i n g gross domestic p r o d u c t , s e c t o r a l o u t p u t s , income d i s t r i b u t i o n , imports, and e x p o r t s ) . The macro programs a r e d e s c r i b e d i n d e t a i l i n P a r t 111.

An i m p o r t a n t aspect o f LEAP i s t h e d i s t i n c t i o n between a

" b a s e l i n e " scenario, on t h e one hand, and a l t e r n a t i v e " p o l i c y "

scenarios, on t h e o t h e r hand. T h i s d i s t i n c t i o n corresponds t o two fundamental q u e s t i o n s t h e p l a n n e r needs t o ask: where a r e we going now? where c o u l d we be g o i n g w i t h d i f f e r e n t p o l i c i e s ?

The f u n c t i o n o f t h e b a s e l i n e s c e n a r i o ( r e f e r r e d t o i n LEAP as t h e Base Case) i s t o answer t h e f i r s t question. I t i s conceived o f as a 'lbusiness-as-usual" scenario, a p r o j e c t i o n o f t h e f u t u r e energy accounts o f t h e c o u n t r y o r r e g i o n under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . The Base Case i n c o r p o r a t e s c u r r e n t l y i d e n t i f i a b l e t r e n d s i n economic and demographic p a t t e r n s , r e s o u r c e a v a i l a b i l i t y , f u e l p r i c e s and choices, and energy s e c t o r c o n s t r u c t i o n and development plans.

Beyond p r o j e c t i n g energy s u p p l y and demand based on c u r r e n t t r e n d s and p o l i c i e s , t h e Base Case p r o v i d e s a y a r d s t i c k a g a i n s t which t h e e f f e c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e " p o l i c y " scenarios may be assessed. P o l i c y s c e n a r i o s t r a n s f o r m t h e b a s e l i n e p r o j e c t i o n s by b l e n d i n g i n a wide range o f p o s s i b l e measures a f f e c t i n g t h e consumption, d e l i v e r y ,

conversion, and sources o f energy.* These a i d i n p r o v i d i n g answers t o t h e second fundamental q u e s t i o n posed above. That i s , " P o l i c y Case"

s c e n a r i o s a r e used t o e x p l o r e t h e e f f e c t s o f a h y p o t h e t i c a l s e t o f energy measures and t o i d e n t i f y a c t i o n s and investments needed t o achieve a more d e s i r a b l e f u t u r e t h a n t h e Base Case p r o j e c t i o n s .

The c o r e programs a r e used t o e s t a b l i s h p r o j e c t i o n s f o r b o t h t h e Base Case and t h e P o l i c y Case(s).** The c o s t s o f each a l t e r n a t i v e P o l i c y Case a r e then e v a l u a t e d by LEAP'S f i n a l component, t h e Costing program. T h i s program sumnarizes t h e s h i f t s i n energy consumption and r e s o u r c e r e q u i r e m e n t s and t r a c k s t h e t i m e stream o f c o s t s and b e n e f i t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e v a r i o u s elements o f t h e p o l i c y scenario, as w e l l as t h e i r f o r e i g n exchange requirements and impacts. The use o f t h e c o r e programs t o produce P o l i c y Cases and t h e use o f t h e Costing program, a r e d e s c r i b e d i n P a r t I V .

* A l t e r n a t i v e s c e n a r i o s may a l s o be used t o p e r f o r m s e n s i t i v i t y analyses, i . e . , r u n s i n which key v a r i a b l e s used t o e s t a b l i s h t h e Base Case p r o j e c t i o n s a r e a l t e r e d t o r e f l e c t u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e i r f u t u r e values. The responsiveness o f o u t p u t s t o changes i n i n p u t s i s v a l u a b l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g an u n c e r t a i n t y range o f p1 a u s i b l e l o n g - t e r m outcomes.

**The macro programs a l s o a r e designed t o p r o v i d e m u l t i p l e s c e n a r i o s o f economic and demographic f u t u r e s . These

a l t e r n a t i v e s may be used as i n p u t s i n d e v e l o p i n g P o l i c y Cases o r s e n s i t i v i t y e s t i m a t e s .

F i g u r e 1

LEAP MODEL-GENERAL STRUCTURE

LAND WOOD STANDING AGRICULTURAL CROP B

USE SHIFTS SUPPLY INOOD STOCKS OUTPUT ANIMALWASTE

4. USINGLEAP

One o f t h e d e s i g n o b j e c t i v e s mentioned e a r l i e r was t o make t h e system a c c e s s i b l e and easy t o use f o r a l l energy p l a n n e r s , even those w i t h o u t p r e v i o u s e x p e r i e n c e w i t h computers. To t h i s end, a

LEAP

U s e r ' s Guide has been c r e a t e d which p r o v i d e s step- by- step i n s t r u c t i o n s i n t h e development o f r e l e v a n t data, t h e f i l l i n g o u t o f LEAP " d a t a forms^N, and t h e r u n n i n g o f programs.

The a c t u a l sessions a t t h e computer

--

t y p i c a l l y , a desktop microcomputer such as t h e I B M PC, Wang PC, O l i v e t t i PC, o r comparable machines

--

a r e " i n t e r a c t i v e " . The program prompts t h e user t o supply c e r t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n and responds t o i n f o r m a t i o n and i n s t r u c t i o n s p r o v i d e d by t h e user.

The f i r s t s t e p i n u s i n g LEAP i s t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f d a t a and t h e f i l l i n g i n o f some o f LEAP'S d a t a forms. The U s e r ' s Guide, which d e s c r i b e s t h e r e q u i r e d data, and t h e LEAP Data Development Booklet, which i s a workbook o f blank d a t a forms and i n s t r u c t i o n a l notes, a i d i n t h e key t a s k o f c o m p i l i n g t h e d a t a base.

The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a t a wi 11 t y p i c a l l y be an i n i t i a l c o n s t r a i n t t o a c h i e v i n g d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s . B u t weaknesses o r incompleteness i n t h e c o u n t r y ' s h i s t o r i c d a t a base should n o t be a d e t e r r e n t t o t h e a d o p t i o n o f f o r m a l and s y s t e m a t i c computer-based procedures. To t h e c o n t r a r y , t h e a d o p t i o n o f such procedures can h e l p s t r u c t u r e and promote b e t t e r d a t a g a t h e r i n g e f f o r t s . The recommended approach i s t o b e g i n w i t h t h e a v a i l a b l e " o f f - t h e - s h e l f " i n f o r m a t i o n . The f i r s t LEAP o u t p u t s may be o f l i m i t e d d e t a i l and accuracy b u t w i l l p r o v i d e guidance i n d e t e r m i n i n g where d a t a development i s needed.

Once t h e d a t a forms have been f i l l e d i n , t h e r e s t i s easy:

e n t e r i n g t h e d a t a i n t o t h e computer, p e r f o r m i n g computer runs, and p r i n t i n g o u t p u t r e p o r t s i s a s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d process. Data i s e n t e r e d d i r e c t l y o n t o screens which a r e f a c s i m i l e s o f t h e h a r d copy d a t a forms. The computer prompts t h e user f o r t h e r i g h t f o r m o f d a t a and p r o v i d e s e r r o r messages i f d a t a i s unreasonable o r o u t s i d e a range a c c e p t a b l e t o t h e programs. These f e a t u r e s h e l p keep d a t a e n t r y e r r o r s a t a minimum.

To h e l p g u i d e t h e user through a l l t h e steps necessary t o use t h e computer, LEAP c o n t a i n s a h i e r a r c h y o f "menus.' These menus a r e l i s t s o f o p t i o n s f r o m which t h e user chooses, i n o r d e r t o i n s t r u c t t h e computer what t o do n e x t . For example, t h e f i r s t menu which appears on t h e t e r m i n a l i s t h e LEAP Master Menu, shown i n F i g u r e 2. I f one o f t h e f i r s t t h r e e choices on t h e Master Menu i s selected, t h e computer d i s p l a y s t h e menus f o r d a t a e n t r y ( a l s o shown i n F i g u r e

2),

c a l c u l a t i o n s , o r o u t p u t . Depending on t h e o p t i o n s e l e c t e d , one o r more f u r t h e r menus w i l l f o l l o w a s k i n g f o r a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n .

A schemata o f t h e o v e r a l l menu s t r u c t u r e i s shown i n F i g u r e 3 below.

-11-

FIGURE 2 SAMPLE LEAP MENUS

L E A P M A S T E R H E N U

7

Country / Region Label: KAMBlA

F1

-

E n t e r LEAP Data F2 - Run LEAP P r o g r a m

F3

-

P r i n t and D i s p l a y LEAP Output F9 - Change Country / Region F10 - Q u i t LEAP

,

Press t h e a p p r o p r i a t e F u n c t i o n Key t o make a s e l e c t i o n .

The LEAP Master Menu appears i n i t i a l l y .

I

^{Country 1} Region Label: UMBIA

F1 - Demand Base Data (Forms: D-1, D-2)

F2 - Demand Scenario Data (Form : D S - l ) F3

-

Energy Category Data (Forms: 8-1, 8-2, 8 - 3 ) F4 - Transformation Base Data (Farm?: T - l and TM-*) F5

-

Transformation Scenario Data (Farm : T S - l )

I

F6

-

Resource Base Data (Forms: R - l , R-2, R-3) F7 - Resource P r o j e c t i o n Data (Forms: RS-l t h r u RS-7)

I

F8 - Costing Data (Forms: C - l t h r u C - 5 ) F11 - Demographic Data

F12 - A g r i c u l t u r a l Data F13 - Economic Data

(Forms: P - l t h r u P-4) ( F o r m : A - l t h r u A-3) (Forms: E - l t h r u E - 4 )

Press t h e a p p r o p r i a t e F u n c t i o n Key t o s e l e c t t h e category.

(F11 = S h i f t F1, F12 = S h i f t F2, F13 = S h i f t F3) (Press F10 t o r e t u r n t o t h e Master Menu.)

Appears when F 1 i s pressed a t t h e Master Menu.

FIGURE 3 LEAP MENU STRUCTURE

Enter LEAP Exit LEAP

Each LEAP program produces s e v e r a l r e p o r t s . These f a l l i n t o two major c a t e g o r i e s : Echo Reports and R e s u l t s Reports. As t h e name i m p l i e s , Echo Reports p r o v i d e r e c o r d s o f t h e LEAP c a l c u l a t i o n s w h i l e t h e R e s u l t s Reports p r o v i d e t h e outcomes o f those c a l c u l a t i o n s .

P a r t 11: THE CORE PROGRAMS

The c o r e programs o f t h e LEAP system

--

Demand, T r a n s f o r m a t i o n , and Resource

--

a r e designed t o r e p r e s e n t t h e v a r i e t y o f energy demands, p r i m a r y r e s o u r c e requirements, domestic s u p p l i e s , e x p o r t s and i m p o r t s , which t o g e t h e r comprise t h e network o f energy f l o w s o f a c o u n t r y . The Demand program accounts f o r t h e f i n a l consumption of energy when a g i v e n s e r v i c e o r end-use i s p r o v i d e d (e.g., l i g h t i n g , h e a t i n g , water pumping, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) . The T r a n s f o r m a t i o n program accounts f o r a l l i n t e r m e d i a t e conversion processes (e.g., e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n and t r a n s m i s s i o n , o i l r e f i n i n g , biogas p r o d u c t i o n ) i n d e t e r m i n i n g p r i m a r y r e s o u r c e requirements. The Resource program focuses on biomass resources w i t h i n r e g i o n s , e c o l o g i c a l zones, and landuse c a t e g o r i e s , t r a c k i n g p o t e n t i a l s u p p l i e s , o f f t a k e and n e t p r o - d u c t i o n .

As discussed above, t h e Core programs have two f u n c t i o n s i n t h e energy assessment process, F i r s t , t h e y a r e used t o produce Base Case f o r e c a s t s o f e v o l v i n g s u p p l y and demand p a t t e r n s . Second, t h e y may be used t o a l t e r Base Case f o r e c a s t s t o produce v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s c e n a r i o s ( P o l i c y Cases). The d e s c r i p t i o n s i n t h e s e c t i o n s below r e f e r t o t h e Base Case c a l c u l a t i o n s although, as w i l l be discussed i n P a r t I V , t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e s c e n a r i o s i s q u i t e s i m i l a r .

5. DEMAND Overview

The Demand program i s t h e f i r s t component o f t h e main body o f LEAP. I t uses economic, demographic, and energy use i n f o r m a t i o n t o compute and r e p o r t f i n a l energy requirements. These d e t a i l e d o u t p u t s a r e passed t o t h e o t h e r Core programs ( T r a n s f o r m a t i o n and Resource) and t o t h e C o s t i n g program f o r f u r t h e r p r o c e s s i n g . F i g u r e 4 shows t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s .

FIGURE 4

OVERVIEW OF DEMAND PROGRAM Macro Models (optional)

& Other sources

Demand Program

Final Demand Requirements

Transformation, Resource

& Costing Progams

The purpose o f t h e Demand program i s t o c a l c u l a t e t h e demands f o r v a r i o u s energy commodities under a s p e c i f i e d s e t o f c o n d i t i o n s . The user p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n about p r e s e n t and f u t u r e l e v e l s o f s o c i o - economic parameters, such as p o p u l a t i o n , i n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t , gross domestic product, equipment use, e t c .

T h i s approach i s based on disaggregated data; energy requirements a t t h e p o i n t o f consumption a r e used as t h e b u i l d i n g b l o c k s i n c o n s t r u c t i n g a complete p i c t u r e o f a n a t i o n a l energy system. Such an approach p e r m i t s more a c c u r a t e demand p r o j e c t i o n s , and p r o v i d e s a c l e a r q u a n t i t a t i v e framework f o r f o r m u l a t i n g and e v a l u a t i n g p o l i c y o p t i o n s by t r a c k i n g energy use impacts a t t h e l e v e l o f user equipment, f u e l choice, and b e h a v i o r .

The degree o f d i s a g g r e g a t i o n employed i n a LEAP a n a l y s i s i s a t t h e u s e r ' s d i s c r e t i o n . I n some s e c t o r s , g r e a t d e t a i l on energy use may n o t be r e q u i r e d , e i t h e r because p l a n n i n g i n t e r e s t s l i e elsewhere o r because t h e s e c t o r ' s r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n i s s m a l l . As p l a n n i n g needs become more e x t e n s i v e and r e f i n e d , and as d a t a bases a r e developed, t h e f u l l power o f t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d framework can be employed. For g r e a t e r d i s a g g r e g a t i o n , i t i s o f t e n d e s i r a b l e t o engage i n s p e c i a l d a t a g a t h e r i n g e f f o r t s , t a i l o r e d t o s p e c i f i c energy u s i n g s e c t o r s . For example, a r u r a l survey o f biomass usage p a t t e r n s c o u l d p r o v i d e new d a t a f o r more d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s i f fuelwood shortages were a n t i c i p a t e d .

The end-use demand s t r u c t u r e i s based on a h i e r a r c h y o f f o u r l e v e l s : 1) Sector, 2) Subsector, 3 ) End-use, 4 ) Device/Fuel. The s e c t o r s and components a r e d e f i n e d by t h e LEAP user, and may be m o d i f i e d a t any time. For example, one m i g h t d e f i n e a s e c t o r as

"Urban Households," a subsector as " High Income," an end-use as

"Cooking," and devices f o r t h i s end-use as " E l e c t r i c Range," "Gas Stove," Wood Stove," "Charcoal Stove," etc. Another example c o u l d be

" I n d u s t r i a l " sector, " S t e e l " subsector, "Process Thermal" end-use, and d e v i c e s such as " O i l B o i l e r , " " E l e c t r i c Arc Furnace," "Coal B o i l e r , "

e t c . As t h e magnitude o f these components change over time, t h e a s s o c i a t e d energy consumption a l s o changes. Thus, by i n c o r p o r a t i n g f o r e c a s t s o f demographic changes, income s h i f t s , end-use s a t u r a t i o n s , d e v i c e e f f i c i e n c i e s , f u e l mix, economic o u t p u t , process components, equipment f u e l s , etc., one can p r e d i c t t h e r e s u l t i n g energy r e q u i r e m e n t s as t h e y change o v e r time.

A p a r t i a l f l o w diagram f o r t h e urban household s e c t o r s i l l u s t r a t i n g t h e Demand s t r u c t u r e i s d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 5.

A s s o c i a t e d w i t h each l e v e l o f t h i s h i e r a r c h y i s an a c t i v i t y measure (e.g., number o f households, f r a c t i o n i n an income group, f r a c t i o n which have space h e a t i n g , f r a c t i o n w i t h o i l h e a t e r s ) .

As one moves down a branch t o an end-use device, these a c t i v i t y measures, which may change over time, a r e m u l t i p l i e d t o compute t h e end-use s t o c k . For example, t h e h y p o t h e t i c a l a c t i v i t y l e v e l s i n F i g u r e 5 i m p l y t h a t , o f t h e 1,000,000 urban households, 20% a r e h i g h income; of those, 90% have some f o r m o f space h e a t i n g ; o f those w i t h h e a t i n g , 50% use o i l heat. So t h e number o f o i l h e a t e r s i n t h e h i g h - income urban s e c t o r i s 1,000,000 X 20% X 90% X 50% = 90,000, and

energy demand i n t h i s branch i s 90,000 t i m e s t h e average o i l use p e r o i l h e a t e r . Changing t h e a c t i v i t y l e v e l o f any element i n t h i s l i n k produces a change i n t h e energy demand. A f t e r t h e energy f o r each end p o i n t i s c a l c u l a t e d i n t h i s fashion, t h e f u e l requirements a r e then aggregated back up t h e s t r u c t u r e t o t h e t o t a l end-use f u e l demands.

A l l o f t h i s may be d i s p l a y e d i n g r e a t e r o r l e s s e r d e t a i l i n t h e p r i n t e d r e p o r t s p r o v i d e d by t h e LEAP system.

FIGURE 5

HYPOTHETICAL ACTIVITY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THE DEMAND STRUCTURE

Heating 90%

,

.

Oil Heat 50%

Gas Range 40%

URBAN

Kerosene 20%

1 000 000

SECTOR SUBSECTOR END-USE DEVICE

S t r u c t u r e

The i n p u t d a t a f o r t h i s model i s o r g a n i z e d i n t o two major c a t e g o r i e s as shown i n F i g u r e 4, Base d a t a and Scenario data. The Base d a t a c o n t a i n s b a s i c i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e c o u n t r y o r r e g i o n being s t u d i e d , s p e c i f i e s t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l branch s t r u c t u r e f o r t h e a n a l y s i s and c o n t a i n s t h e b a s e l i n e d a t a on t h e branch a c t i v i t i e s . The Scenario d a t a s p e c i f i e s changes and a d d i t i o n s t o t h e Base d a t a s e t .

A number o f s p e c i a l terms a r e employed i n t h e Demand program;

some o f them have been i n t r o d u c e d i n f o r m a l l y , above, b u t w i l l now be more f o r m a l l y d e f i n e d .

Branch S t r u c t u r e

-

A h i e r a r c h y o f f o u r l e v e l s (Sector, Subsector, End-Use, and Device) i s d e f i n e d t h r o u g h a u s e r c r e a t e d Branch S t r u c t u r e . For example, a n a t i o n a l ( o r r e g i o n a l ) d a t a s e t may c o n t a i n s e v e r a l sectors, each o f which c o n t a i n s i t s own group o f subsectors.

Each subsector may have one o r more end-uses, and each end-use must have a t l e a s t one d e v i c e . The diagram i n F i g u r e 6 g i v e s a s i m p l i f i e d example. The s t r u c t u r e i s e n t i r e l y f l e x i b l e and expandable; t h e user c r e a t e s t h e s t r u c t u r e w h i l e c r e a t i n g t h e Base d a t a f i l e . The d a t a i s e n t e r e d as a one- dimensional l i s t s t a r t i n g f r o m t h e t o p and working down and t o t h e l e f t t h r o u g h t h e t r e e ; t h e branch s t r u c t u r e shown i n F i g u r e 6 would be e n t e r e d as shown i n Table 1.

A c t i v i t y L e v e l s

-

Each branch has A c t i v i t y L e v e l s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t which n u m e r i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t t h e l e v e l o r measure o f a c t i v i t y o f each branch; f o r example, t h e number o f households, t h e f r a c t i o n i n a g i v e n income group, t h e s a t u r a t i o n o f a r t i f i c i a l l i g h t i n g , and t h e f r a c t i o n s o f t h e s e which use e l e c t r i c l i g h t s , p a r a f f i n lamps, e t c . These a c t i v i t i e s e x i s t a t each l e v e l o f t h e h i e r a r c h y r e p r e s e n t i n g whatever measure t h e user c o n s i d e r s most a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h a t branch.

O f t e n t h e A c t i v i t y L e v e l w i l l be a number o f households, v e h i c l e s , businesses, etc., a t t h e S e c t o r l e v e l , and a f r a c t i o n o r percentage a t each lower l e v e l .

The A c t i v i t y L e v e l s a r e m u l t i p l i e d down t h r o u g h t h e h i e r a r c h y t o c a l c u l a t e t h e A c t i v i t y M u l t i p l i e r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each branch. For example, t h e A c t i v i t y M u l t i p l i e r f o r a subsector i s t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e A c t i v i t y L e v e l s f o r t h a t subsector and t h e s e c t o r t o which i t belongs;

e.g., t h e A c t i v i t y M u l t i p l i e r f o r t h e " High Income" subsector would be t h e number o f "Urban Households" which belong t o t h e " High Income"

category, o r

200,000

i n F i g u r e

5.

The A c t i v i t y M u l t i p l i e r f o r t h e Device " O i l Heat" i n F i g u r e 5 i s 90,000, as mentioned above.

F i n a l Demand

-

F i n a l demand i s c a l c u l a t e d a t t h e Device l e v e l and aggregated t o h i g h e r l e v e l s o f t h e s t r u c t u r e . The Device A c t i v i t y M u l t i p l i e r (90,000, i n t h e example) i s m u l t i p l i e d by t h e Device consumption l e v e l (average o i l use p e r o i l h e a t e r i n high- income urban households) t o c a l c u l a t e t h e consumption a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h a t device- end use- subsector- sector combination. Then t h e f i n a l demand a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a h i g h e r - l e v e l c a t e g o r y i s t h e sum o f t h e lower l e v e l demands t h a t branch below i t .

Index Years

-

The i n p u t d a t a may change w i t h time: f o r example, t h e number of urban households, r e a l GDP c o n t r i b u t i o n f r o m a

p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r y , o r t h e stock o f motor v e h i c l e s a r e t i m e - v a r y i n g v a r i a b l e s . The p l a n n e r would o f t e n l i k e t o assume steady growth i n such v a r i a b l e s , w i t h o u t having t o e n t e r each y e a r ' s p r o j e c t e d v a l u e s e p a r a t e l y . T h i s i s accomplished by p r o v i d i n g values f o r t h r e e c o n v e n i e n t l y s e l e c t e d index y e a r s (" base," "mid," and "end"). The v a l u e s f o r o t h e r y e a r s a r e t h e n e s t i m a t e d by l i n e a r i n t e r p o l a t i o n ,

FIGURE 6 SAMPLE BRANCH STRUCTURE

LEAP DEMAND

Level

National

Branches

NATION

I

Sub sectol

1 1

LOVJ INCOME

Fnd use

[piqizr~ r G q q

^{p q G q}

^{r G + q -1}

TABLE 1

SAMPLE BRANCH L I S T STRUCTURE

L e v e l L e v e l B r a n c h Number Name

- -

^Name

1 SFCTOR Urban Households

2 SUBSECTOR H i g h Income

3 ENDUSE L i g h t i n g

4 DEVICE E l e c t r i c L i g h t s

3 ENDUSE Cooking

4 DEVICE Kerosene S t o v e

4 DEVICE Wood S t o v e

2 SUBSECTOR Low Income

3 ENDUSE Cooking

4 DEVICE Wood S t o v e

1 SECTOR R u r a l H o u s h o l d s

2 SUBSECTOR All Income

3 ENDUSE C o o k i n g

4 DEVICE Open F i r e

I 3 ENDUSE I . i g h t i n g

l 4 DEVICE Kerosene Lamp

The Demand program base d a t a t h u s i d e n t i f i e s t h e f o l l o w i n g b a s i c i n f o r m a t i o n : t h e name o f t h e c o u n t r y ( o r r e g i o n ) being considered, t h e index years, t h e o u t p u t r e p o r t i n g years, and t h e energy u n i t s used t o express energy f i g u r e s (e.g., g i g a - j o u l e s , m i l l i o n B t u ' s , o r any o t h e r c o n v e n i e n t u n i t ) . I t a l s o c o n t a i n s t h e branch d e s c r i p t i o n s w i t h t h e f o l l o w i n g d a t a f o r each branch:

1. H i e r a r c h y l e v e l number 2. Branch name

3. A c t i v i t y l e v e l s ( f o r t h e t h r e e i n d e x y e a r s ) 4. A c t i v i t y s c a l i n g f a c t o r *

5. A c t i v i t y name For t h e Device l e v e l o n l y :

6. Fuel index

7. Average f u e l consumption

The s c e n a r i o d a t a i s used t o m o d i f y Base Case d a t a i n developing a l t e r n a t i v e demand scenarios. The r e p o r t i n g c a t e g o r y d a t a serve t o d e f i n e t h e f i n a l f u e l s (e.g., e l e c t r i c i t y , kerosene, fuelwood, e t c . ) , t h e p r i m a r y energy forms (e.g., crude o i l , hydropower, biomass, e t c . ) , and t h e more aggregate " balance sheet" c a t e g o r i e s f o r sumnarizing n a t i o n a l energy accounts. These may be f l e x i b l y s e l e c t e d by t h e user t o match t h e p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y o r r e g i o n under a n a l y s i s .

The b a s i c mathematical r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e shown i n Table 2. F i n a l energy demands f o r a g i v e n d e v i c e i n a g i v e n year a r e computed by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e " a c t i v i t y " l e v e l s f o r each o f t h e f o u r l e v e l s i n t h e h i e r a r c h y

--

s e c t o r , subsector, end-use, d e v i c e - - times t h e e s t i m a t e d average f u e l consumption f o r each device. These f i g u r e s a r e then combined t o p r o v i d e t h e consumption by f u e l t y p e f o r each o f t h e l e v e l s o f t h e h i e r a r c h y .

The f l e x i b i l i t y i n d e f i n i n g t h e types o f d e v i c e s and t h e changing d e v i c e m u l t i p l i e r s ( t h a t i s , f r a c t i o n o f end- users u s i n g d e v i c e ) a l l o w s one t o c a p t u r e s c e n a r i o assumptions r e g a r d i n g , f o r example, f u e l s w i t c h i n g , conservation, and new equipment p e n e t r a t i o n . Consequently, i f t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t d a t a i n a g i v e n c o u n t r y t o develop such p r e d i c t o r s o f use and ownership l e v e l s as p r i c e and income e l a s t i c i t i e s , t h e s e may be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e LEAP s t r u c t u r e t h r o u g h adjustments i n t h e end-use o r d e v i c e m u l t i p l i e r s .

- *For c ~ n v e n i e n c e - - ~ d a t a e n t r y , a c t i v i t y l e v e l s o f , say, 1,000,000 i n t h e base year, 3,000,000 i n t h e m i d year, and 6,000,000 i n t h e end year may be e n t e r e d s i m p l y as 1, 3 and 6. The s c a l i n g f a c t o r t h e n t e l l s LEAP t o i n t e r p r e t these as m i l l i o n s .