Master thesis in Sustainable Development 2017/34
Examensarbete i Hållbar utveckling
Rural Electrification and Societal
Impacts on Future Energy Demand in
Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano
Community
Anton Ålund
Master thesis in Sustainable Development 2017/34
DEPARTMENT OFEARTH SCIENCES I N S T I T U T I O N E N F Ö R
Examensarbete i Hållbar utveckling
Rural Electrification and Societal
Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia:
A Case Study in an Altiplano Community
Anton Ålund
Supervisor: Anders Lundblad
Evaluator: Göran Lindbergh
Copyright © Anton Ålund. Published at Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University (www.geo.uu.se), Uppsala, 2017
Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy
Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano Community
ANTON ÅLUNDÅlund, A., 2017: Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano Community. Master thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No. 2017/34, 46 pp, 15 ECTS/hp
Abstract:
Social variables are a predominant force to community development in rural areas. However, research on how social aspects affect the energy situation as a community expands is to date limited. This study aims explore this void and investigate the following question:
“What could be a feasible pathway to reach a sustainable and resilient future state in Micaya, based on the impact of key variables within three different sectors: education, health and production?”
In this study, theories and models of rural electrification and scenario analysis are transposed and applied to community operated rural electrification in order to frame development. The investigation is restricted to focus on three social sectors, healthcare, education and production. Current literature confirmed that social aspects are missing in rural electrification programs.
Through interview and discussion with an established expert group important social variables have been identified in the study community. These variables lay the foundation for the scenario building used to define a desirable future in the case study community. It was found that the variables within the production sector are most influential to future developments in the study community.
The study revealed that energy access, especially access to electricity, is an essential condition for the development of rural communities. However, it does not guarantee an increase in productivity or effectiveness in social institutions in the absence of other development programs. The study also concludes that well-planned, carefully implemented rural electrification programs provide enormous benefits to rural people. Once an area has reached a certain level of development, further improvement of societal institutions depends on the availability of a secure and stable energy supply.
Keywords: Sustainable Development, Rural electrification, Energy assessment, Decentralized energy solutions,
Scenario analysis, Minor Field Study
Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy
Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano Community
ANTON ÅLUNDÅlund, A., 2017: Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano Community. Master thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No.2017/34, 46 pp, 15 ECTS/hp
Summary:
Social variables are a predominant force to community development in rural areas. However, research on how social aspects affect the energy situation as a community expands is to date limited. This study aim to investigate the research question below, and, by doing so, contribute to the corresponding research area.
“What could be a feasible pathway to reach a sustainable and resilient future state in Micaya, based on the impact of key variables within three different sectors: education, health and production?”
The research draws on current literature to develop a theoretical framework, used to fully understand the problem at hand. The investigation is restricted to focus on three social sectors, healthcare, education and production. To construct relevant future scenarios, interview and discussion with an established expert group identified important social variables. These variables serve as the foundation for the scenario building in the search for a desirable future in the study community.
It was found that the variables within the production sector are most influential to future developments in the study community. The study also revealed that energy access is an essential condition for the development of rural communities. However, it does not guarantee an increase in productivity or effectiveness in social institutions in the absence of other development programs. The study also concludes that well-planned, carefully implemented rural electrification programs provide enormous benefits to rural people. Once an area has reached a certain level of development, further improvement of societal institutions depends on the availability of a secure and stable energy supply.
Keywords: Sustainable Development, Rural electrification, Energy assessment, Decentralized energy solutions,
Scenario analysis, Minor Field Study
Table of Contents
1 Introduction ... 1 1.1 Background ... 1 1.2 Field Study Area - Micaya, Bolivia ... 2 1.3 Research Scope ... 3 1.3.1 Purpose ... 3 1.3.2 Aim ... 3 1.3.3 Objectives ... 4 1.3.4 Research Question ... 4 1.3.5 Delimitations ... 4 1.3.6 Structure of the Thesis ... 5 2 Theoretical Framework ... 6 2.1 Climate Change ... 6 2.1.1 Climate Change in Bolivia ... 7 2.2 Energy in The Developing World ... 8 2.2.1 Energy in Bolivia ... 9 2.2.2 Bolivia’s National Grid & Rural Areas ... 9 2.3 Energy and Sustainable Development ... 11 2.3.1 Transition to Clean Energy ... 11 2.3.2 Technological solutions ... 12 2.4 SDGs in Micaya ... 13 3 Methodology ... 14 3.1 Interviews and Questionnaire Design ... 14 3.1.1 Questionnaire Design ... 14 3.1.3 Semi-structured Interviews ... 15 3.1.4 Expert Group ... 15 3.2 Scenario Analysis ... 15 3.2.1 Explorative Forecasting ... 16 3.3 Simulation Method ... 17 3.3.1 MICMAC ... 17 3.3.2 MACTOR ... 19 3.3.3 Variables Identified in Micaya ... 20 3.3.5 Actor's Identified in Micaya ... 22 4 Results ... 24 4.1 Key Variables ... 24 4.1.1 Scenario 1 - Smart Production ... 24 4.1.2 Scenario 2 - Efficient Education ... 25 4.1.3 Scenario 3 - Healthcare ... 27 4.2 Key Objectives ... 29 4.3 Key Actors ... 29 4.3.1 Power Structures in Micaya ... 29 4.4 Key Actors ... 29 4.5 Current State Energy Consumption in Micaya ... 30 4.5.1 Production ... 30 4.5.2 Health ... 30 4.5.3 Education ... 31 4.5.4 Households ... 32 5 Discussion ... 33 5.1 Key Findings ... 34 5.2 Minor Findings ... 345.3 Scenario Building - Micaya in 2025 ... 35 5.3.1 Optimal Scenario ... 35 5.3.2 Most Realistic Future Scenario ... 38 6 Conclusion ... 41 6.1 Future Recommendations ... 41 7 Acknowledgement ... 42 8 References ... 43 Appendix A – Interviews and Questionnaire Design ... I Appendix B – Structural Analysis Matrix ... XI Appendix C – Actors Strategy Table ... XIV Appendix D – Matrix of Actors and Objectives ... XVII
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1 Introduction
This section provides a brief background, introduces the problem statement and frames the research question, aim and objectives of this study.
1.1 Background
In a not too distant future well over 7 billion people will populate the world, and access to energy to cover basic needs will be heavily influenced by the population in developing countries (UN, 2016). The consumption patterns and how these countries approach sustainability will unquestionably shape the comprehension of global sustainable development. Observing development trends over recent decades it is obvious that access to energy and especially electricity has had a significant role in the growth and progress in all societal sectors (Mandelli et al. 2016). It is indisputable that this development has not been equally distributed throughout the world, many countries suffer from a low rate of electrification, low per capita consumption and low quality energy supply (IEA 2013; Mandelli et al. 2016; S. Bhattacharyya 2012). Rural areas are often most affected by the lack of both energy access and quality, mostly since governments prioritize urban areas where the economic activities are significant. Generally speaking, rural areas are characterized by being sparsely populated and geographically isolated from urban settlements. Furthermore, rural areas usually have high illiteracy rates, a lack of access to quality healthcare and both a lack of clean water and energy supply, all of which contribute to the measures of standard of living (Sahn 2003; Fang & Sakellariou 2013). This is a situation only made worse by the lack of development efforts regarding electrification in rural areas over the last decade; mostly due to the immense cost associated with expanding the national grid to remote and isolated areas (Sahn 2003). Thus, an increased consideration for global access to electricity needs to be shifted to focus on rural electrification. Especially, towards technologies that do not require the national grid to supply the rural population with electricity.
Small-scale, off-grid energy systems are one, perhaps the most, appropriate solution to address the lack of rural electrification globally. Both as an initial first step to increase the electrification, but also — thanks to its flexibility and ability to respond to change — as a springboard to develop small local grids. These have the potential not only to supply household needs, but also minor production and improve societal functions such as healthcare and education (Welsch et al. 2013; Mandelli et al. 2016). When targeting an increased rural electrification, the major challenge is according to (Kobayakawa & Kandpal 2015)) to estimate future demand, thus, these features of a decentralized small-scale system can be
hugely beneficial in rural settings. A significant advantage of renewable technologies,
especially solar power, is that the systems are easily scalable. Thus, systems can be sized to meet the demand of a single household to a middle-sized community, and with ease further increase in size should the demand change (Bhattacharyya & Palit 2014). Decentralized power generation can be provided through a number of technologies such as diesel generators, photovoltaic (PV) solar systems, micro-hydraulic systems or even biomass combustion.
However, due to the global challenge of climate change it is an absolute necessity that
electrification of rural communities are based on clean energy. Off-grid systems based on renewable technologies are therefore close to a requirement for rural electrification
(Pepermans et al. 2005). Renewable energy solutions do not only possess the ability to
electrify isolated areas but also facilitate a smoother transition from electricity generated by traditional fossil fuels, to clean energy sources (Bhattacharyya & Palit 2014).
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It can be concluded that increased energy access in developing countries, and foremost in rural areas without grid connection, can improve education, health or environmental conditions (Ulsrud et al. 2011). The greatest effects on well-being are experienced at the lowest per capita energy consumption rates, which are often to be found in rural communities. Ulsrud et al. (2011) highlights the fact that the positive contribution of electricity to the Human Development Index (HDI) is strongest for first kilowatt hour, reflecting that the poorest are likely to benefit from even minimum electricity inputs to meet their basic needs. The specific benefits of electricity are commonly understood to include: an overall increase in the standard of living, improved education through e.g. lighting, or decreased time spent on domestic tasks such as fuel collection (wood for cooking etc.). It can not, however, be concluded that increased access to modern energy such as electricity automatically improves local production activity or economic growth (World Bank 2008). Nevertheless, electricity is an invaluable input for productive and economic activities, as well as for health, education and overall well-being in all communities, urban and rural (IEA 2013).
Technological breakthroughs in the renewable sector have changed the conception of energy for people all over the world. People are moving from distant and passive receivers of energy, often unsustainably generated, to actively controlling their energy demand including generation on site (Mandelli et al. 2016). Rural communities have the potential to be at the heart of this transition, providing the joined-up thinking required to deliver decentralized energy at a community level. Rapid falls in the costs of solar panels and battery storage, combined with the roll out of smart meters and the continued development of demand side response (DSR) technologies provide the basis of a very different way of producing and consuming energy in the future (Ceseña et al. 2015). Promoting decentralized energy use at a municipal level, either by individuals or on behalf of the community, offers the prospect of lower energy bills for households as well as local businesses. Therefore, the rural development strategy should incorporate the socio-economic and environmental aspects. Nevertheless, before implementing new technology it is advisable to determine its feasibility. Therefore, this research work aims to provide necessary information required to assess feasibility of a transition to a smart and resilient community.
1.2 Field Study Area - Micaya, Bolivia
The village Micaya was founded on October 18, 1984 and is located in the municipality of Colquencha, approximately 56 km, or 2 hours south of the administrative capital in Bolivia, La Paz. Micaya is located in an area in Bolivia called the Altiplano, approximately 4020 meters above sea level. It is also the most extensive area of high altitude plateau on Earth outside Tibet (Gobierno Autónomo Municipal de Colquencha y sus 5 Cantones 2010). Micaya is dependent of the water supply from the glaciers in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia’s largest mountain chain. However, the total volume of the glaciers has decreased by 40% between 1975 and 2006 (Franquist et al. 2013). That has left the Altiplano region short of water, thus affecting the productivity in the area negatively. In combination with low job opportunities, this has led to high migration among the population. Key characteristics of Micaya are listed below in Table 1 (Gobierno Autónomo Municipal de Colquencha y sus 5 Cantones 2010).
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Table 1. Key characteristics of Micaya.
Case Study Area Micaya - Key Facts
Geographical Location 16°93’N Latitude, 68°22’W Longitude
Altitude 4020 meters above sea level
Population 385
Main occupation Agriculture, pottery, cattle
Main crops Potato, barley, quinoa
Temperature -3,5°C to 22,3°C (Average: 9,3°C)
Average rainfall 609 mm/year
1.3 Research Scope
This section provides an overview of the research scope that this study aims to fulfill as well as the purpose, objectives, research question and the delimitations of the survey.
The study is divided into two different parts. Firstly, the study investigates the current socio-economic state in Micaya, by evaluating the current energy situation and consumption patterns. The current state will lay the foundation for analysis that aims to evaluate how social aspects affect the three areas of interest, health, education and production. These aspects in combination with environmental consequences related to the use of unsustainable energy will form the first part of the analysis. Secondly, consumption preferences and the impact of alternative energy sources will be investigated together with an established group of experts to create likely future scenarios in Micaya. A correlational observation between various parameters in terms of socio-economy and socio-technical solutions will be discussed and evaluated to define a feasible pathway to a sustainable and resilient society.
1.3.1 Purpose
The purpose of this study is to identify key variables and investigate how these variables will impact the future state in Micaya within the sectors: health, education and production.
1.3.2 Aim
The aim of this study is that the conclusions made will be used as a foundation for further research in Micaya, to create public policies and inform decision-makers on the complicated energy state in rural Bolivia. Furthermore, this study aims to examine whether a switch to clean and affordable energy in Micaya will help the village improve different societal variables. The study also aims to provide a baseline of the current energy consumption in Micaya and, to point out possible technological solutions able to meet future demand of both individual households as well as societal institutions.
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1.3.3 Objectives
The baseline energy profile is based on compiled historical data. This data will be complemented with data collected from an expert group consisting of academics and professionals in the energy sector. The study will fulfill the following objectives:
i. Define a baseline energy profile in Micaya based on historical data and interviews.
ii. Understand the impact of different social variables on energy consumption patterns
and technological preferences of households, in order to move the energy supply to renewable technology.
iii. Create at least two future scenarios, identify the most feasible pathway to it, and also
define the variables which will be most influential to future energy demand. This will be accomplished through interviews in Micaya, as well as with an established expert group.
1.3.4 Research Question
To fulfill the purpose and aim of the study the following main research question will be answered:
“What could be a feasible pathway to reach a sustainable and resilient future state in Micaya, based on the impact of key variables within three different sectors: education, health and production?”
To fulfill the objectives and completely understand the main research question of the study the following minor research questions will be investigated and answered throughout the study:
i. “What is the current energy situation in Micaya?”
ii. “What parameter has the most significant impact on what is considered a sustainable
future?”
iii. “What will the future energy demand be with regards to chosen key variables in the
social sectors education, healthcare and production in Micaya?”
1.3.5 Delimitations
The study will only consider the following three areas: education, health and production. Other areas will also impact the future state of Micaya, but these have been excluded due to the limited timeframe of the study. Furthermore, this study only considers the impact from these parameters on energy consumption and energy dependence.
The case study village, Micaya, already has access to limited grid electricity, thus this study will not focus on communities that has no access to energy at all. Rather it will focus on how to make the energy supply more reliable and resilient to improve the living standard in the area.
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1.3.6 Structure of the Thesis
The first chapter provides a background to the study and to the general problems caused by a lack of energy. Moreover, the first chapter also defines the research scope, set the aim and objective as well as presenting the purpose of the study. Chapter two presents the theoretical concept, in which the study operates. The third chapter describes the methodology applied to answer the research questions, collect the data in the field and how to build and compare future scenarios in Micaya. Results obtained from field study are presented in chapter four along with the different scenarios developed as simulated in MICMAC. Chapter five includes the discussion the plausible pathway approaches to reach a desired future state. In chapter six, conclusions are drawn by observing the findings of the survey along with appropriate recommendations going forward. Finally, Chapter 7 provides the acknowledgments followed by references in chapter 8. Figure 1 shows the interconnections between the different parts of the study and highlight how the study contribute to the overall research domain.
Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the structure of the thesis and the interconnections between the different parts of the study and how these contribute to the research domain.
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2 Theoretical Framework
The theoretical framework aims to provide a better understanding of energy consumption and energy dependency in rural areas of Bolivia, as well as its connection to global climate change. Clean, efficient, and reliable energy services are not only desirable, but an absolute necessity, for the social welfare in rural communities like Micaya. This chapter discusses the relation between energy, sustainable development and a pathway to a clean energy future. Challenges of implementing new technology in rural Bolivia are also reviewed within the theoretical framework.
2.1 Climate Change
For decades human activity has increasingly affected the earth and its unique climate, and its importance for life on this planet (IPCC, 2007). Humans’ negative behavior is largely sparked by technological advancements and the ignorance of the effects caused by immensely increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. Because of this, planet earth has entered a new era, the Anthropocene. That marks the time in history where human activities are proved the dominant driver of change in vital earth systems (Steffen et
al., 2006). Environmental depletion and the exponential temperature rise will have further
impacts on all life as well as putting further pressure on the earth system; further changes will trigger abrupt or irreversible environmental changes that would be catastrophic for human well-being (Rockström et al., 2009) This is a dilemma because, still, the dominant drivers for social and economic development remains ignorant to the risk of human caused environmental disasters (Stern, 2007)
Even though, environmental fluctuations are not an unusual phenomenon; over the past thousands of years the amount of environmental fluctuations has been far from few, including: flooding, changed rainfall patterns and temperature variations (Alley et al., 1997). In this period however, the environmental systems has remained stable over time, an era referred to as the Holocene (Rockström et al., 2009). The first human interaction in the environmental systems can be defined as regional, with altered fire regimes, bisecting of natural areas and so forth. There is no evidence that human activity has affected the variations of different environmental functions until very recently (Alley et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2006). Since late nineteenth century and the industrial revolution, human activities, mostly related to the burning of fossil fuels, have been pushing the earth system outside its safe operating boundaries of the Holocene (Rockström et al., 2009; Berger & Loutre, 2002).
It exists no significant indication that the current trend on human caused climate change is decreasing any time soon; 2016 shaped up as the hottest year since records began in 1880, continuing the three-year streak on all-time warm years, while the Arctic also experienced record low ice levels (NOAA, 2016). As a result of the growing impacts of climate change, millions of people experiencing higher temperatures and extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, putting food and water security at risk, and threatening agricultural supply chains and many coastal cities.
The impacts and risks posed by climate change highlight the need for action to deliver on the Paris Agreement on climate change, reached in December 2015, to keep a global temperature
rise in the 21st century below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. And with the
world’s poorest people hit hardest by climate change, the case for action has been underscored by the Sustainable Development Goals, developed by the UN in 2015 (UN, 2015).
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2.1.1 Climate Change in Bolivia
Bolivia is one of the world’s smallest emitters of GHG, accountable only for 0.057% of global carbon emissions (Global Carbon Atlas, 2015). Yet the effects of climate change have already been evident in the country for several years. There are both social as well as environmental impacts of climate change all over the country from the Altiplano highlands in the Andes to the lowlands and the Amazonian jungle (Seiler et al., 2013). The main impacts of climate change in Bolivia are, however, most significant in the Altiplano region and include: food insecurity; glacial retreat and water availability (Parry et al., 2004; Franquist et al., 2013).
In the Cordillera Real, Bolivia’s largest mountain chain, the total volume of the glaciers decreased by 40% between 1975 to 2006 (Franquist et al., 2013). This have had a severe impact on the water supply, not just to household use, but also affected the amount of energy produced by hydropower plants. Worse, the Cordillera Real is not the only glacier to be affected. The Tuni Condoriri glacier, that provides Bolivia’s administrative capital La Paz and the neighboring city of El Alto (accounting for more than 2.5 million people together) with water, is expected to decrease significantly by 2025 and possibly fully disappear by 2045 (Francou et al., 2003). In the long-term effects in these areas will be devastating; lack of water will affect the energy supply, but especially the food security in all of Bolivia. Fluctuating temperatures, increasing irregularity of seasons and overall unpredictability of weather have further implications for food production (Parry et al., 2004). Whilst temperature changes vary according to region, small producers and subsistence farmers in the Altiplano and Amazon region are worst affected. In 2010 sudden drops in temperature and drought resulted in the death of livestock and reduction of crops that affected 21,000 families in the Amazon (Parry et al., 2004). In 2011 climatic instability caused Bolivian quinoa yields to drop 50% compared to the previous year.
The livelihood insecurity is also likely to affect migration patterns from rural communities. Migration has always been a way of sourcing alternative incomes in the Andes where agricultural cycles are dictated by dry and rainy seasons. It is hard to identify climate change as the single cause of migration. However, the effect of environmental instability on livelihoods is likely to be a strong factor. In Norte Potosí — even though the problem is noticeable in all of Bolivia — a region in which 71% of the land is affected by desertification, recent research indicates that migration is becoming more widespread (Franquist et al., 2013).
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A summary of the expected future impact from climate change in different regions in Bolivia is stated in Table 2 below. This study will focus on the Altiplano region.
Table 2. Expected impact of climate change in the different regions of Bolivia (WWF, 2015)
Region Change scenario Anticipated impacts
Altiplano
Increased frequency of storms with fewer days of rain, increased frequency of hail, lower river flow
Increasing appearance of frost, increasing need of water for irrigation due to longer dry season, problems with hydropower generation, glacier retreat, crop failure, flooding in the rainy season, decreased availability of water for human and animal consumption, lower aquifer recharge, increased competition for water use
Andean Valleys
Increased precipitation, increased frequency of storms with fewer days of rain, increased frequency of hail
Increased competition for water use, biodiversity loss, increasing need of water for irrigation due to longer dry season, increased risk of mudslides, problems with power generation, soil erosion and desertification
Chaco
Longer dry season during the growing season, intense and recurrent droughts, low river flow
Increased competition for water use, biodiversity loss, increased events of heat waves during the summer, soil erosion and desertification, increased pollution of water sources
Amazon
An increase in the amount of rainfall by event, increased cloudiness rate, high atmospheric humidity in summer and severe droughts and winter
Frequent flooding, infrastructure damage and loss, winter crop failure and livestock loss due to lack of water, increased presence of pests and diseases due to high humidity, biodiversity loss, outbreaks of infectious diseases related to water.
2.2 Energy in The Developing World
Many of the world’s problems today can be derived from energy. From conflicts over resource supplies and greenhouse-gas emissions, to inefficient productivity and output stemming from shortages and blackouts. In many of the poorest regions of the world, the lack of energy stifles economic and human development. Globally, over 1.3 billion people have no access to electricity; and approximately 2.6 billion have no access to modern cooking facilities (Kaygusuz, 2012). In Latin America and the Caribbean, over 31 million people — 7% of the regional population — live without grid-connected electricity (The World Bank, 2013). Demand for energy is growing exponentially in developing countries due to rapid population growth and likewise rapid economic expansion. This is projected to lead to a near doubling in primary energy use, much of it unsustainable, by developing countries in the next two decades. As a result of this growth, developing countries will account for 50% of primary
energy use and 52% of energy-related CO2 emissions by the year 2030 (UN 2015).
The World Bank (2013) states that the lack of adequate distribution channels plays a significant role in energy shortage worldwide. In rural areas, energy distributors often find it difficult to reach their users, who are often geographically dispersed. Typically, potential rural users are located in areas that have no paved access routes, and where energy transmission
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lines are unavailable. To distribute energy from the point of origin to rural destinations is thus very costly and logistically difficult.
A new approach to energy distribution is required, one that can eliminate waste, reduce pollution, and increase access to energy around the world. This requires focusing on efficiency-boosting technologies, such as improved machine-to-machine communication, smart metering, and better production management (Chu & Majumdar, 2012). Unfortunately, the number of research projects within these areas has been insufficient. Especially, research on smart metering and smart grids could make a difference to future energy security. Renewable energy sources are well positioned to contribute to energy needs in both developed and developing countries. However, because weather is unstable, energy from these sources may be uncertain and intermittent. This will continue to be a problem unless, or rather until, we are able to store energy more efficiently.
2.2.1 Energy in Bolivia
Energy resources, particularly fossil energy such as: oil, natural gas and hydropower, are
abundant in South America (Aravena, 2008); Venezuela sits second to none with the largest proven oil reserves, and Brazil, Mexico and Ecuador all make the top 20 (World Atlas, 2017). However, experts remain cautious that there will be difficult for South America to increase current production of fossil fuels (Aravena, 2008). The main constraints to an increased production are infrastructure and the domestic political landscape. Even though establishing new infrastructure to increase distribution provides an immense business opportunity, and energy supply have for long been equal to economic and social development in South America. While many countries have energy reserves for domestic use, only Ecuador, Bolivia and Venezuela export energy resources, mainly natural gas and oil, in any significant amount (Central Intelligence Agency, 2017).
Bolivia currently sits at the top as the country in South America with the largest natural gas reserves second only to Venezuela. Bolivia also has the most significant source of natural gas in relation to its internal consumption in South America (Gazprom, 2016). Bolivia produces
21.4 billion m3 of natural gas annually, only 18.2 percent of the total production is consumed
in Bolivia, the remaining 81.8 percent is being exported mainly to Argentina and Brazil (Central Intelligence Agency, 2017). In 1988, the governments of Bolivia and Brazil signed an Energy Integration Treaty in which Brazil committed to buy natural gas from Bolivia. The gas is used generate both heating and electricity at a thermal plant the Bolivian Government proposed to construct at the border between the two countries. The agreement laid the groundwork for the proposal to construct a pipeline to transport natural gas produced in central Bolivia to major industrial centers in Brazil (Hindery, 2013).
2.2.2 Bolivia’s National Grid & Rural Areas
According to Finucane et al. (2012) only 73% of Bolivia’s rural population had access to electricity, while 99% of the urban population has access to electricity. In total that makes up to approximately 25% of the population in Bolivia live without access to electricity and most of them live in rural areas (Buch & Filho, 2012). The inequalities between the urban and rural population is further polarized by Bolivia’s weak institutional structure, which do not enable for efficient distribution nor equal of the country's natural resources.
Bolivia is according to numbers an energy self-sufficient country, even if the country is obliged to import certain quantities of industrialized fuels to supply the domestic industrial market. Despite the fact that Bolivia is capable to meet domestic demand, the electrification coverage in the rural area is still low (Finucane et al., 2012). This is true for different reasons:
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but the main obstacle for the expansion of the national grid to rural areas is the geographical nature of Bolivia. It is expensive to connect rural mountain areas to the national grid due to the difficult terrain and geographical isolation of many communities. Not helped by the fact that rural electrification using conventional methods such as grid extension is becoming increasingly expensive to implement. Rural communities must consider alternative decentralized sources to generate electricity to meet future energy demand. Figure 4 illustrates the national grid connection in Bolivia (Fernández Fuentes, 2010).
Figure 2. Spread of national grid in Bolivia.
The lack of a nationwide coverage negatively affects the development of rural areas by preventing economic, social and environmental development. Thus, by not having access to electrical energy these communities are deprived of the ability to promote sustainable development.
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2.3 Energy and Sustainable Development
Energy have throughout history been essential in terms of development, however, for “development” to continue or rather to be sustainable, energy need to be secure, environmentally friendly, and also used efficiently (UN, 2002). In almost every country today the energy system is a cornerstone of modern life. It enables countless services with the potential to improve social, economic and environmental conditions in both developed and developing countries. Yet the current system of energy supply and energy use is highly unsustainable, and in the absence of major new government policies will become even less so in the foreseeable future (S.C. Bhattacharyya, 2012). It is insecure and unreliable, because of the significant dependence on oil. Extracted from limited reserves more often than not concentrated in politically volatile regions. It is environmentally harmful, because of growing contribution to (anthropogenic) global warming. Thus, the challenges involved in ensuring energy for sustainable development are many. Improving the economic, social and environmental conditions of the people of today — but most importantly tomorrow — demands greater levels of energy services (S.C. Bhattacharyya, 2012). This will require fundamental changes in technologies, infrastructure and not least people's behavior.
It could be argued that energy contributes to a virtuous cycle of human, economic and social improvements that are essential to sustainable development in developing countries. Sufficient supplies of clean energy are the basis for raising standards of living, improving the quality of everyday life and enhancing the business and natural environment. Modern energy services enhance the life of the poor in countless ways; electric light extends the day, providing additional hours for reading and work. Modern cook stoves spare households from noxious fumes from the daily cooking. Refrigeration extends food freshness and decrease wastage. Clinics with electricity can sterilize instruments and safely store medicines through refrigeration. Manufacturing and service enterprises with modern energy can be more productive and can extend the quality and range of their products, leading to new jobs and higher wages. Energy alone may not alleviate poverty – clean water, adequate sanitation, health and education services and communication networks among other things are also needed – but it is indispensable to sustainable development all around the world.
2.3.1 Transition to Clean Energy
Without a significant implementation of renewable energy sources it is predicted that the global energy mix will remain fairly stable and dominated by fossil fuels until 2030. Much due to the size and inertia of the current energy system has made it inflexible and unable to change quickly (Chu & Majumdar, 2012). In this scenario, fossil fuels will remain the largest source providing the world with energy covering about 80% of global demand in 2004 and an expected 81% in 2030. Concerns about continued high consumption of fossil fuels does not only leave emissions of GHG dangerously high but also raise questions of supply security and long-term energy solutions (UN, 2015).
The transition to sustainable energy systems is not only a necessity to provide a solution to cope with climate change, it is critical to improve the livelihood for a rapidly increasing population. The population growth will pose the most fundamental problem to the increased energy demand. In just 100 years the world's population is estimated to increase by almost a factor 3, to a total population of approximately 10 billion people (Roser & Ortiz-Ospina, 2017). Developing countries will experience the most rapid population increase and therefore perhaps the largest global opportunity for implementation of renewable energy. Despite tremendous progress, barriers still exist to promoting sustainable energy solutions, especially given the need for a dramatic change in the pace and scale of how this issue is addressed
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(Gerger & Gullberg, 1997). Action is needed in several areas such as technology development, policy and regulatory innovation and governance structures.
In 2030, the population of Bolivia will reach 13.4 million, an increase of 30.7% from 2012, out of these about 25% will live in rural areas (Gale, 2012). However, as Fernández Fuentes (2010) points out a large portion of these households are connected to the national grid, unfortunately the grid relies on fossil fuels. Thus, both urban, but especially, rural areas in Bolivia posses a great potential for integration of renewable energy sources into the existing infrastructure. Renewables can both be used to power individual households and large-scale communities and industries. An integrated energy system consisting of the national grid with support from renewable energy sources provides an energy system adaptable and resilient to fluctuations in demand.
2.3.2 Technological solutions
Implementation of renewable energy into a rural community can be accomplished in a lot of different ways, but always require technological solutions. The implementation would also require educating the community in the use and management of these new systems. The most common systems include solar home systems (SHS), solar pumps, mini grids solutions and large solar parks to name a few.
Solar Home Systems
A SHS is a stand-alone PV system that offers a cost-effective alternative to provide a high quality power supply to individual remote off-grid household for lighting and communication appliances. In rural areas, not connected to the grid, SHS have been used with great success to meet a household's energy demand and help to fulfill basic electric needs (Wamukonya, 2007). Globally, SHS provide a basic energy supply to numerous households in remote locations where electrification by the grid is not feasible due to high costs of grid extensions. Apart from just providing remote areas with energy, PV systems also facilitate sustainable development and thus contributing to climate protection.
Mini Grids
A mini grid, can also be referred to as an isolated grid, and is defined as a system of small-scale (usually 10 kW to 10MW) electricity generators and, possibly, storage units interconnected to a distribution network that supplies electricity to a limited number of consumers (Kobayakawa & Kandpal, 2015). Thus a mini grid is a distribution grid that operates in isolation from national energy supply infrastructure. The energy supply architecture of a mini grid can be contrasted to a single consumer system such as in the case of a SHS, however for the case of this study mini grid will consider systems that serves more than a single household. A mini grid has been introduced as a support system in cases where the national grid provides an unstable energy supply. A integrated system of this kind evens out the energy supply a make the energy supply more adaptable and resilient (Bhattacharyya & Palit, 2014).
Mini grids are a great solution for remote areas as they can operate autonomously without being connected to the national grid. However, the mini grid, just as a national grid, must be maintained, this could be a problem in communities without the technical knowhow. Implementation of mini-grids have proved to have a positive social impact by improving the local governance structure through the involvement of the community in the decision making process linked with the energy system.
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Solar Parks
A solar park (SP), is a large-scale PV system usually designed to supply energy directly into the existing grid infrastructure. SPs designed differently from most conventional building-mounted PV systems and other decentralized energy applications because they are able to supply energy at industrial level, rather than just to an individual user.
The solar power source is via photovoltaic modules that convert light directly to electricity. However, this differs from, and should not be confused with concentrated solar power, the other large-scale solar generation technology, which uses heat to drive a variety of conventional generator systems. Both approaches have their own advantages and disadvantages, but to date, for a variety of reasons, photovoltaic technology has seen much wider use in the field. As of 2013, PV systems outnumber concentrators by about 40 to 1.
Batteries
One of the major constraints to renewable energy sources is the lack of adequate storage solutions. Though, one of the most promising solutions is lithium batteries. These batteries are characterized by high efficiency and long life. These unique properties have made lithium batteries the most popular technology for future energy storage in renewable energy plants, as well as power systems for sustainable development. However, to scale technology for these purposes is still quite problematic since issues such as safety and costs are still to be resolved for the technology to be feasible with in these fields..
2.4 SDGs in Micaya
Energy, and especially electricity, is the golden thread that impacts most of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and beyond that, the development of every nation and economy. The United Nations has recognized Energy as a cornerstone for economic development, facilitating poverty and hunger reduction efforts, improving education, women’s empowerment and healthcare. The SDGs, known as the Global Goals, are a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity (UN 2015). Also, the SDGs provide us with a common plan and agenda to tackle some of the pressing challenges facing our world. This thesis will be aligned with the following goals:
I. 7. Affordable and Clean Energy
II. 9. Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
III. 11. Sustainable Cities and Communities
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3 Methodology
The methodology consists of a literature study and a field study including interviews and historical data collection. The main advantage of the field study is that it allows for quick gathering of knowledge on a subject that is previously scarcely researched (Sala et al. 2015). Specifically, a field study allows exploration of stakeholder involvement, and in the case of Micaya, dynamics related to energy services in the rural regions in developing countries. Interviewing stakeholders and experts also allow for evaluation of the various alternatives for energy access in cases where available literature is inadequate.
For conducting the energy assessment the participatory rural appraisal method (PRA) is used. The PRA is an effective approach when the study wants to draw on experiences and knowledge within a rural community; especially, this approach is used to highlight environmental concern and community development (Chambers 1994). The qualitative PRA research framework is applied by developing various important aspects of the study, such as prepare questionnaire and conduct field survey (Mack et. al., 2005). A qualitative method is
used because it is the best way for seeking answers to research questions simultaneously as
finding evidence; consequently it provides a deeper understanding of the research problem. This practice is also efficient in research aiming to identify social norms and socio-economic factors important to a study population. The PRA framework is descriptive since it answer questions such as; what, when, where, how etc. and identifies relationships between different aspects (Mack et. al., 2005).
3.1 Interviews and Questionnaire Design
To obtain the primary data necessary to evaluate the current state — but also to build accurate scenarios for the future — data will be gathered by conducting semi-structured interviews with established experts. Moreover, primary data will also be gathered through questionnaire-based interviews with local stakeholders in Micaya.
3.1.1 Questionnaire Design
The aim of the questionnaire is to quantify and analyze data statistically in order to accurately weight identified variables. According to Crawford (1997) the most appropriate way to design a questionnaire is to design a formal standardized questionnaire. Therefore the questionnaire design process was conducted accordingly (Crawford 1997):
i. Designed to meet the research objectives.
ii. Consist of complete and accurate information to ensure the respondents fully
understand the questions.
iii. Questions are formed to ensure sound analysis and accurate interpretation of the
answers.
iv. Keep the questionnaire to ensure the interviewee stay interested.
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3.1.3 Semi-structured Interviews
Semi-structured interviews allow for exploration of the interviewee's expertise in a way that structured questions can not (Brinkmann, 2014). Semi-structured interview questions will start with relevant topics and the relationship between them. This will serve as the foundation for the interview, with more specific questions emerging during the interview (Case, 1990). For the purpose of this study the semi-structured interview method is used because it have the potential to not only give answers but also, confirm what has been observed (Case, 1990). The template for expert group interview can be found in Appendix A.
3.1.4 Expert Group
In this study the expert group consists of three individuals, all with unique knowledge and experience within their respective field. Interviews with the expert group will lay the foundation for the scenario analysis as well as contribute to the variables identification process. The expert group will also aid in the actors identification process and give their opinion on the relationship between the various actors identified. The expert group consists of:
Saúl Cabrera - Holds a PhD Material Sciences from University of Valencia, currently
working as a professor and senior researcher at the Chemical Research Center at UMSA Universidad Mayor De San Andrés. Saúl is an expert within the field of rural community development in Bolivia's Altiplano region. He heads the research for various SIDA funded projects related to Sustainable Development and Rural Development and acts as coordinator for the "Smart Ayllu" program at UMSA. Saúl has previously experience from working as Director of Science and Technology office at the Education Ministry.
Johanne Hanko - Environmental engineer holding a doctoral degree in Environmental
Engineering. Johanne has been working as an environmental consultant in Latin America and Africa for several years and is currently the President of the FADIPCO (Fundación de Apoyo al Desarrollo Integral de los Pueblo y Comunidades) foundation in Bolivia; a foundation mainly working to improve quality of life in rural areas through the implementation of PV-systems. Johanne is also a board member of the German Society for Solar Energy in Bolivia, the Bolivian Association for the Advancement of Science and Engineers in Action.
Reinhard Mayer - German physicist specializing in technology transfers and optimization
for small and medium enterprises in the field of solar energy and rational use of conventional energy. Reinhard has been working in Bolivia since 1987, first, as a Professor at the University of San Simón in Cochabamba, Department of Physics. Then at the department of Pure Sciences and Technology where he founded the Solar Energy Development Project (PDES) specializing in research of solar energy applications in agriculture. And secondly, as a consultant in several development projects, implementing different PV-systems in both rural and urban settings. Since 1990 Reinhard has constantly published articles on the development of solar energy in Bolivia.
3.2 Scenario Analysis
Exploratory research may come with uncertainties and limitations that could potentially affect the outcome negatively (Peterson et al. 2003). To overcome this, this study will conduct a scenario analysis to generate several possible future scenarios that are consistent with the current state of Micaya, but also contain several potential outcomes. Early approaches to scenario analysis defined scenarios as: “[...] hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points” (Ritchie-Calder et al. 1968). Scenario analysis can also be a mean to incorporate local values and knowledge
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into the research (Lynam et al., 2007). However, the important commonality when applying a scenario analysis is the idea that scenarios does not ensure accurate predictions or forecasts, but rather create an alternative future that challenge current assumptions and, perhaps more so, broaden perspectives (Jarke et al., 1998). Thus, in a scenario analysis a set of different parameters (variables) is combined to create several different future scenarios, each of which indicates what could possibly happen, given certain assumptions (Funtowicz et al., 1999). More and more, scenarios have served as a tool to facilitate decision-making processes in the ecological community to expand the depth of environmental analysis in sustainable development (Rotmans et al., 2000). Scenario analysis also serves to develop different ways of development and highlights the interactions between key variables within the research area (Duinker & Greig, 2006). Scenarios, however, does not only serve to illustrate plausible futures, but also to reveal the limitations of these future scenarios (Greeuw, 2000). Scenario analysis can also be a mean to incorporate local values and knowledge into the research (Lynam et al., 2007).
As stated above, scenario analysis can help to foresee or create a feasible pathway to a desired future. To achieve this there are two different approaches that is commonly used, forecasting
and backcasting (Holroyd et al., 2007). Forecasting is defined as; projecting in the future what
might occur and identify alternative paths for the future. Whilst Backcasting first defines clear future state and then, define goals and project different paths going backwards from the desired future.
In this study three different scenarios, within the sectors health, education and production, will be explored through (Holroyd et al., 2007) forecasting method in combination with the following methodology modified from (Schwartz, 2012)
i. Define the focus of the scenario analysis.
ii. Identify and review the key variables influences on the current and future situation.
iii. Identify critical uncertainties.
iv. Define the weight of each parameter.
v. Create the scenarios.
vi. Assess implications for the community.
vii. Propose actions and directions going.
3.2.1 Explorative Forecasting
Numerous definitions of forecasting exist, i.e. “[...] a description of a possible set of events that might reasonably take place. The main purpose of developing scenarios is to stimulate thinking about possible occurrences, assumptions relating these occurrences, possible opportunities and risks, and courses of action” (Jarke et al., 1998). In short, explorative forecasting identifies historical patterns and trends to outline possible changes going into the future. Moreover, a forecasting approach may require data collection of both past and present situation in order to provide accurate predictions for the future (Holroyd et al., 2007) A typical example of forecasting is a conventional Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). In the context of environmental and sustainable development issues, forecasting is a tool to aid planning on development.
The scenarios, of this study, are developed and based on collected historical data and interviews performed in Micaya. Thereafter, a feasible pathway to a desired future scenario is
extrapolated using MICMAC Demographic Software, by weighting the different variables
according to questionnaire result. A schematic illustration of the study’s forecasting can be seen in figure 2.
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3.3 Simulation Method
To create forecasting scenarios MICMAC Demographic Software is used to simulate how the chosen variables will affect each other in the future in Micaya. The MACTOR model is then used to determine the relationship between actors and to identify key objectives for future development.
3.3.1 MICMAC
MICMAC is a structural analysis tool designed to connect different ideas and visions, describing the system as a matrix that relates all its elements (variables) together. By studying these relations, the MICMAC method enables the user, to underline the variables that are essential to the system's development and evolution (Arcade et al., 1999). The interrelations, brought forth by structural analysis, aims to bringing the system structure to light. The MICMAC analysis takes place in three stages:
1. Creating the inventory of variables
2. The description of relationships between variables 3. The identification of key variables
The first stage, also the least formal, is crucial for the entire process, it refers to the task of defining the scope of the study, and consequently the system to be analyzed (Arcade et al. 1999). With the system identified, an inventory of all variables, internal as well as external, that characterizes the system can be defined. At this stage it is preferable to be as exhaustive as possible, ensure to avoid leaving anything uninvestigated (Arcade et al., 1999). Beside meetings for brainstorming at the university, the identification of variables was further explored through interviews with established experts. Additional interviews were made with the personnel at the social institutions in Micaya. For a study of this size, the list of all the defined and agreed upon variables should not exceed 15 items (Arcade et al., 1999). Further segmentation of the variables into different categories allows the user to draw a closer distinction between internal and external variables. For didactic purposes, the variables in this study are ranked according the four subgroups: education, healthcare, production and
Figure 3. Schematic illustration of the forecasting scenario approach based on the current state in Micaya A, B & C represents different future
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additional variables. Although the elements describing each variable are essential to move the analysis process forward, it is important to stress that the list of variables is definite at this stage (Holroyd et al., 2007). Furthermore, the identification of relationships between variables will also be continuously improved during the entire of the process.
During the second stage, the objective is to define the relations between the different variables. The method consists of linking up variables in a double input matrix, the structural analysis matrix (SAM). The structural matrixes used in this study can be found in Appendix B. The rows and columns in the SAM correspond to the variables defined in stage one. The relationship between the variables in the SAM is presented in a very intuitive way; a variable's direct influence is estimated by accumulating the action of one variable in a row on all other variables in the corresponding columns (Holroyd et al., 2007; Arcade et al., 1999). The third and last stage consists of identifying key variables affecting the system's global dynamics. A variable acting only on a small number of variables exerts its direct influence on a rather limited part of the system. Likewise, a variable acting on a significant amount of variables exerts its direct influence on an extensive part of the global system dynamics. Equally, the extent of variables direct dependence on actions of other variables is obtained by considering the columns in the SAM i.e. the cumulative direct influences exerted on it by the system's other variables. Thus, by systematically adding up the elements on each row, and then on each column in the SAM, an indication on each variable’s potential dependence and influence on the system in its entirety can be estimated. The simulation in MICMAC is then based on the SAM and the relationship between the variables. The output generated by MICMAC is called a displacement map, as shown in figure 3 (Arcade et al., 1999).
Figure 4. Displacement map, output from MICMAC simulation.
In this study the most interesting variables are the Relay variables, defined as both highly influential and highly dependent. These variables are found in in the upper right quadrant of the chart in figure 3 (Arcade et al., 1999). These variables are interesting because of their instable nature. Not only are relay variables very sensitive to stress, change and actions from other variables in the system, but also, these variables are very influential and can consequently create a bullwhip effect that amplifies the initial impulse throughout the entire system.
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3.3.2 MACTOR
MACTOR is the method used to identify the different actors but also examining the balance of power and the relationship between the actors’ in the system. MACTOR also allows for identification of consequences of potential convergences and divergences on different issues among actors’ (Godet, 1991). This is essential in order to highlight the strategic issues and the key questions for future scenarios and understand how these different actors and their objectives will affect the system in Micaya (Arcade et al., 1999). The actors in the examined system possess various degrees of power that they will be able to use, in order to achieve their objectives. All the actors in this study are considered and examined according to the four following steps (Godet, 1994):
1. Construct the actors’ strategy table (AST).
2. Identify the strategic issues and objectives associated with these issues.
3. Position each actor on each strategic issue and note the convergences and divergences. 4. Rank the objectives for each actor and assess possible tactics (interaction of possible
convergences and divergences) in terms of their objective priorities.
The first, construct the AST, is a square matrix (actors x actors), see Appendix C. The cells on the main diagonal are generally the most important as they define each actor’s identity (Godet, 1994). In contrast, many of the other cells (actions of one actor towards another) are close to empty. Strategic issues and objectives are identified through analyzing the AST. These issues also serve as the “battlefields” on which the actor's are likely to have opposing opinions. Each actor's stance on each of these strategic issues can be represented in the form of a matrix of possible convergences and divergences. However, the convergence and divergence between actors may vary from one issue to another (Godet, 1994). For any given actor, the question is therefore to identify and evaluate possible strategic options and then form a coherent selection of alliances (Godet, 1991). The Matrix of Actors and Objectives (MAO) represent a visual comparison of convergences and divergences. In order to determine which of the objectives that potentially could create differences between two actors’, an actor in favor of certain objectives is indicated by +1 and an actor opposed certain objective is indicated by -1. The matrix calculation MAO x MOA thus gives two matrices, see Appendix D (Godet, 1994):
• Matrix of convergence (CAA) is obtained by the matrix product which retains only
positive scalar products. This is also the number of objectives towards which actors i and j have a convergent attitude, either favorable or unfavorable (number of
convergences).
• Matrix of divergence (DAA) is obtained by the matrix product which retains only
negative scalar products. This is also number of objectives towards which actors i and j have a divergent attitude (number of divergences).
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3.3.3 Variables Identified in Micaya
The structured forecasting analysis of this study depends on several variables, crucial to the outcome of the simulation. The main target of the analysis is to identify the variables that have the greatest influence on the system and predict their future behavior in relation to each other. These variables will build scenarios and help find a pathway to reach a desirable future situation in Micaya. The variables listed below were identified and the reinforced together with the established experts.
Variables Definition Education
V1. Numbers of students and teachers at the school - The cumulative amount of people
using the school facilities on a daily basis. This study considers the number of students and the number teachers at the school. It also considers the activities performed at the school, which is seeking to improve (through education and training) knowledge, skills and behavior of both students and teachers. The teacher lives at the school.
V2. Use of technological equipment in education - The extent to which technological aid
is used in the education, such as: computers, printers, lighting for extended teaching hours etc.
V3. High-level education - Facilitate education at a higher level in Micaya so that students
can receive their entire education in the village instead of travel to another location for education after the age of twelve.
Health
V4. Number of nurses and doctors at the health center - The cumulative amount of
people using the health centers facilities on a daily basis. Related to the increased number of people active at the health center to increase the operating hours to cover weekends as well. This study considers the number of patients as well as the number of nurses and doctors active at the health center to cover the demand from the community. It also considers the activities performed at the health center, seeking to improve, through education and training, the knowledge and skills of nurses and doctors.
V5. Use of technological equipment in healthcare - The extent to which technological aid
is used at the health center to improve the medical services in Micaya, such as: computers, refrigerators, analytics and diagnostics appliances and other modern medical appliances.
V6. Spreading of diseases - Spread of epidemic diseases causing infections as well as
affecting the daily life in the Altiplano region. Apart from infections caused and spread by humans in the population, the spreading of diseases are also related to the disease's origin from cattle and other animals.
Production
V7. Use of technological equipment in production - The extent to which technological
equipment is used in the production processes to improve the productivity in a sustainable way in Micaya, such as: Solar pumps, watering systems, heated barns, efficient ceramics production and other modern production appliances.
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V8. Efficient food production - Related both to being a self-sufficient producer to cover
the food demand in the community, as well as producing excess food that could be sold at markets in neighbouring cities, El Alto and La Paz.
V9. Smart land use - Related to efficient land use in agriculture and cattle. Separate
croplands from pasture lands to improve the quality of the soil for better productivity.
V10. Increased ceramics production - Affected by the building of a new ceramics factory
in the village of Micaya. It will not only increase the productivity in the ceramics production but also increased the number of people active in the ceramics factory. The products from the factory intend to be sold at markets in neighboring cities, El Alto and La Paz.
Additional Variables
V11. Climate change - Related to the global trend of global warming that has altered the
rain seasons in Altiplano region as well as led to the dramatic decrease in glacier size in the Andes. The aspect of climate change is considered at a regional level with regards to changes in temperature, rainfall etc.
V12. Access to water - Related to the lack of sufficient water resources to meet the
demands of water consumption in the Altiplano region. Access to water also refers to the quality of the water delivered to Micaya, standards used to assess water quality are related to the well-being of ecosystems and the quality of the drinking water. All of the above variables and access to water will be key to the future development of not only Micaya but to all of Bolivia.
V13. Access to energy - Related to the lack of a sufficient energy supply to meet the
demands of energy consumption in the Altiplano region. Access to energy also refers to the quality of the energy delivered to Micaya, standards used to assess energy quality are related to the well-being of the population in Micaya as well as the social services presented to them. Access to energy will be key to the future development of not only Micaya but to all of Bolivia.
