Department of Political Science
Moving Climate Change Adaptation in the Forest Sector Forward Through
Stakeholder Empowerment
A Case Study on Västerbotten County, Sweden
Auvikki Ilmarar Bjerka de Boon
Thesis for the Master’s Seminar in Political Science at Umeå University
Autumn Semester 2018
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Abstract
Climate change and what to do about it, both in relation to mitigation and adaptation, is a strongly debated topic. One of the areas that has been brought forward as pivotal in both adaptation and mitigation is the forest sector. Yet, the scientific literature reveals that adaptation measures are to date seldomly implemented in this sector. Much is known about hurdles in the way of adaptation measures, but far less is known on how to empower local stakeholders to move adaptation forward. Therefore, this thesis examines if a new approach to climate change adaptation in the forest sector can help to empower local stakeholders to take adaptation actions.
A theoretical framework for change that focusses on strengths in the surroundings of the
stakeholders is developed with insights of the Institutional Analysis and Development
framework, Empowerment Theory, Asset Based Community Development, and Appreciative
Inquiry. Based on this framework, a method is developed and applied in a participatory
backcasting workshop with students with a focus on Västerbotten County, Sweden. The results
from this case study show that the new approach contributed to the empowerment of the
participants and to a more holistic understanding of local climate change adaptation in the forest
sector.
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Table of contents
Abstract p. i
Index of Figures and Tables p. iv
Abbreviations p. v
1. Introduction p. 1
1.1. Aim and Research Questions p. 3
1.2. Outline p. 4
2. Literature Review p. 4
2.1. Natural Science Perspective p. 4
2.2. Social Science Perspective p. 5
3. A Theoretical Framework for Change p. 9
3.1. Actors p. 10
3.2. Action Situation p. 13
3.2.1. Action Situation as an Empowering Process p. 14
3.3. External Variables/Context p. 15
3.3.1. Biophysical Conditions p. 15
3.3.2. Attributes of the Community p. 16
3.3.3. Rules-in-Use p. 17
3.4. Evaluation p. 19
4. Method and Material p. 20
4.1. Research Design p. 20
4.2. Case Selection p. 21
4.2.1. Climate Change Adaptation in the Forest Sector in Västerbotten p. 21 4.2.2. Participants: Students from Umeå University and the Swedish
University of Agricultural Sciences p. 22
4.3. Case Design p. 23
4.3.1. Participatory Backcasting p. 23
4.3.2. Questionnaire Design p. 24
4.3.3. Workshop Design p. 25
4.4. Conducting the Analysis p. 26
5. Background on the Case p. 27
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5.1. Past-, Current-, and Projected Future Biophysical Conditions of the
Forest Sector in Västerbotten p. 27
5.1.1. Past Biophysical Conditions – 1900s p. 27
5.1.2. Current Biophysical Conditions p. 28
5.1.3. Projected Future Biophysical Conditions – 2100 p. 30 5.2. The Actors’ Relation to the Forest Sector p. 32
6. Analysis of the Empirical Material p. 33
6.1. Biophysical Conditions – Physical Strengths and Assets p. 33
6.2. Attributes of the Community of Västerbotten p. 34
6.2.1. Shared Vision, Goals, and identified Actions p. 35
6.2.2. Values within the Community p. 39
6.2.3. Strengths within the Community p. 40
6.3. Rules-in-Use – Practical Considerations p. 42
6.3.1. Position Rules p. 42
6.3.2. Aggregation- and Choice Rules p. 43
6.3.3. Information Rules p. 43
6.3.4. Pay-off Rules p. 44
6.4. Evaluation – Degree of Empowerment p. 45
7. Discussion p. 47
7.1. Empirical Reflections p. 47
7.2. Theoretical Reflections p. 51
7.3. Methodological Reflections p. 52
7.4. Overall Reflections p. 53
8. Conclusion p. 54
References p. 56
Appendix A: Questionnaire Questions p. 72
Appendix B: Empowering Action Situation Timeline p. 80
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Index of Figures and Tables
Figure 1. A Framework for Institutional Analysis p. 10
Figure 2. The Internal Structure of an Action Situation p. 13 Figure 3. Rules as Exogenous Variables Directly Affecting the Elements
of an Action Situation p. 18
Figure 4. A Framework for Change p. 19
Figure 5. Overview of the Vision, Short-Term Goals, and Identified Actions
and Their Interconnectedness p. 38
Figure 6. Tree of Strengths and Assets p. 41
Table 1. Past-, Current-, and Projected Climate in Västerbotten County p. 31
Table 2. Themes, Codes, and Categories Used for the Analysis p. 34
Table 3. Overview of the Questionnaire Results on Individual Empowerment p. 46
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Abbreviations
ABCD - Asset Based Community Development AI - Appreciative Inquiry
ET - Empowerment Theory EU – European Union
IAD - Institutional Analysis and Development framework IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
KSLA - Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry SCB - Statistiska Centralbyrån [Statistics Sweden]
SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
SMHI – Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute]
SPCCA - Swedish Portal for Climate Change Adaptation
UN DESA PD - United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division
UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USA – United States of America
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1. Introduction
The concept of climate change in the form of global warming has been a strongly debated topic since the late 1970s. Various international cooperative platforms have been created over the years, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Additionally, international protocols, of which the Paris Agreement is the most recent, have been set up to combat global warming (Behringer 2010, 185-192; UNFCC 2015). A vast amount of scientific literature has been created in which plausible long-term future scenarios for the world have been developed (IPCC 2001, 154;
Harrison et al. 2018, 824-825). However, the way in which all of these processes have been taking place and information on climate change has been communicated, has not yet translated into empowerment, engagement, and action for adaptation on a local level, nor has it led to a reduction in the abstractness of climate change. Instead, people believe that climate change is something that not they themselves, but international politics and experts should deal with; they generally either feel unaffected, or respond with ‘climate angst’, fatalism, or outright denial (Noorgaard 2011; Blennow et al. 2012; Noble et al. 2014, 836-837; Stoknes 2014).
Furthermore, recent events in France (‘yellow-vest protests’) have shown that many people perceive climate action as elitism, especially when faced with the costs of those actions, reducing the support among the population for climate change policies and action(Dolsak and Prakash 2018). This is problematic as the IPCC has identified local actors (i.e. the population) as key drivers for adaptation measures (Noble et al. 2014, 836-837).
One of the areas that has been brought forward as pivotal in both climate change adaptation and mitigation is the forest sector (van Bodegom, Savenije, and Wit 2009, VII-VIII).
Forests play a major role in capturing carbon and are a source of renewable biofuel and material,
can produce shade and many other so called ‘ecosystem services’ (referring to all possible
goods and services that nature can provide, with a focus on the benefits for mankind) (Hansen
and Malmaeus 2016; Bjärstig and Sténs 2018). Yet, when the forests themselves are not adapted
to the changing climate, they may not be able to continue providing these services over the long
term (Ray et al. 2015). With the cross-generational lifespan of forests, management decisions
made now will carry their consequences into the (uncertain) future. Thus, making climate
change adaptation actions within the forest sector that account for predicted future climate
change scenarios is needed now.
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A vast amount of scientific literature has been produced that assesses regional risk/vulnerability of forests (e.g. Aubin et al. 2018; Charkraborty et al. 2018; Kruhlov et al.
2018; Thorne et al. 2018), predicts the effect of certain adaptation measures (e.g. Ayres and Lombardero 2018; Benito-Garzón et al. 2018; Park, Talbot, and Smith 2018), analyses ways in which adaptation plans can be set up (e.g. Ogden and Innes 2009; Sandström et al. 2016;
Eyvindson and Kangas 2018), or focuses on perceptions of forest managers and/or owners on climate change and climate change adaptation (e.g. Lawrence and Marzano 2014; Uggla and Lidskog 2016; André et al. 2017). Besides the fact that these studies clearly show the urgency for climate change adaptation within the forest sector, they also show that most forest managers and owners, in line with the general abstractness and inaction surrounding climate change and climate change adaptation as was mentioned above, have not yet taken climate change adaptation actions (e.g. Scott and Lemieux, C. 2007; Blennow et al. 2012; Sousa-Silva et al.
2016).
Much is known about variables that hamper the implementation of adaptation measures (e.g. Hagerman 2016; Nelson et al. 2016; Lawrence 2017; Andersson, Keskitalo, and Berstén 2018), but it has not been studied which assets in the surroundings of the stakeholders can help them to move adaptation measures forward. Additionally, even though several studies have been made in which actors with a stake in the forest sector have been involved in creating visions of their desired future (e.g. Mårald et al. 2015; Sandström et al. 2016), there seem to be no studies that include local climate change projections embedded in projections of general societal changes from which the local actors themselves develop pathways to a desired future that is adapted to these changes. Consequently, this thesis examines possibilities to empower local stakeholders by addressing local climate change adaptation in the forest sector with a focus on the strengths of the stakeholders and assets in their surroundings of which the stakeholders themselves think that they can be used as a starting point for climate change adaptation pathways. For this end, a theoretical framework and method are developed and applied that emphasise the interplay between the individual and its larger societal context as well as the positive as a starting point for change. As an example, a case study on the forest sector in Västerbotten County in Sweden is used. Why this case is chosen is further discussed in the method section (sub-chapter 4.2.1.).
The issues that are analysed in this thesis are relevant and interesting both from a
societal- and from a scientific perspective. From a societal perspective, they are relevant
because moving the implementation of adaptation measures forward can reduce the
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vulnerability of communities to climate change. From a scientific perspective, they are interesting because it can create a better understanding of how perceptions of reality influence the possibilities for societal change. Furthermore, they are relevant because there is currently a lack in the literature both in regard to theory and method on how to empower stakeholders in the forest sector to take climate change adaptation action.
1.1. Aim and Research Questions
This study sets out to make climate change (adaptation) less abstract on a local level and to examine if a positive approach toward climate change adaptation (looking primarily at strengths rather than at obstacles) can help create societal change by empowering actors with a stake in the forest sector to implement adaptation measures. The aim is to analyse if a positive approach can empower local actors within their specific context to take locally suited actions that can help the forest sector to adapt to climate change and to identify context specific climate change adaptation pathways. In order to reach this aim, the following research questions are analysed:
1. What are the strengths and assets of the local actors and their surroundings that they themselves perceive can contribute to the implementation of local climate change adaptation in the forest sector?
2. Given the projected local effects of climate change on the forest sector, how do the local actors wish the future world and forest sector to look like and which climate change adaptation pathways toward the desired future can they imagine?
3. How has the method used in this study affected the degree of empowerment (in relation to climate change adaptation in the forest sector) of the actors?
Within this study, the forest sector is defined to encompass both the forest and its management, but also the goods and services it can provide. This includes how the forest and its products are used for recreation and mental-and physical health, consumption (including game, berries, mushrooms, drinking water, timber, bioenergy, etc.), and natural regulation (including erosion prevention, biological diversity, carbon sequestration, etc.). These types of ecosystem services are included because previous studies have shown that humans make use of the forest in a wide variety of ways (Hansen and Malmaeus 2016, 628-629; Bjärstig and Sténs 2018, 132-139).
Climate change adaptation here means “adjustment to actual or expected climate and its
effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2012, 5). These
kind of adjustments can be carried out proactively (adjustment in anticipation of future effects)
or reactively (adjustment after the occurrence of a certain effect). Here attention will be aimed
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at proactive adaptation, because this gives the opportunity to moderate, or possibly even prevent, negative effects of climate change on the forest sector (Gauthier et al. 2014, 267).
The stakeholders/local actors that are focussed on in this study are students. They are an important stakeholder group because they bridge the present with the future as individuals currently affected by adaptation decisions in the forest sector and potential decision makers of tomorrow. The students are involved as active actors in identifying local climate change adaptation pathways that are embedded in a larger societal context and they are presented more in detail in sub-chapters 4.2.2. and 5.2.
1.2. Outline of the Thesis
Following this introduction, chapter 2 presents a review of the body of literature on climate change adaptation in relation to the forest sector. Chapter 3 explains the theoretical framework on which this study is built and chapter 4 gives an overview of the methods that are used. This is followed by an introduction to the case under study in chapter 5. The research questions are addressed in chapter 6. Research question 1 is primarily addressed in sub-chapters 6.1. and 6.2.3., research question 2 is elaborated on primarily in sub-chapter 6.2.1., and research question 3 is central to sub-chapter 6.4. The results and their implications are discussed in Chapter 7. Finally, the thesis closes with a conclusion in chapter 8.
2. Literature Review
For this literature review searches were carried out on Scopus and Web of Science with a combination of the search strings ‘climate change adaptation’ and ‘forest management’.
2.1. Natural Science Perspective
Within the body of literature on climate change adaptation within forest management, many articles have been written from a natural science perspective. Several authors focused on assessing the vulnerability of either certain tree species (e.g. Matthews et al. 2011; Périé and de Blois 2016; Aubin et al. 2018; Kruhlov et al. 2018) or forests within certain regions (e.g. Seidl, Rammer, and Lexer 2011; Le Goff and Bergeron 2014; Chakraborty et al. 2018; Mátyás et al.
2018; Thorne et al. 2018) to climate change. These kinds of studies combine various predicted
climate change scenarios with specifics on the region or tree species under study. All conclude
that the region or tree species they studied is vulnerable to climate change and that, therefore,
adaptation measures should be introduced. Another group of authors aimed their attention at
adaptation methods and their possible effectiveness (e.g. Larsen and Nielsen 2007; Thom,
Rammer, and Seidl 2017). Others have examined which adaptation measures could be taken to
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combat a specific negative effect of predicted climate change (e.g. Day and Pérez 2013;
Bradford and Bell 2017; Ayres and Lombardero 2018; Benito-Garzón et al. 2018), addressed which tree species can be used for assisted migration as a climate change adaptation measure (e.g. Park, Talbot, and Smith 2018), or created models in which they predict the effects of several management strategies under a variety of projected climate change scenarios (e.g.
Felton et al. 2010; Kolström et al. 2011; Steenberg, Duinker, and Bush 2011; Hlásny et al. 2017;
Lucash et al. 2017). Several other authors addressed the interplay between climate change adaptation- and climate change mitigation measures. They concluded that there are trade-offs and that, therefore, goals within both areas should be balanced of against each other (e.g.
D’Amato et al. 2011; Kabrick et al. 2017).
Together, all these articles argue that forests are highly vulnerable to climate change but that this vulnerability can and should be reduced by a combination of adaptation measures that are proper for the specific local conditions. Furthermore, they bring forward that adaptation measures should be monitored and that attention should be payed to the trade-offs between both adaptation and mitigation, but also between current adaptation measures and future adaptation capacity. Examples of measures that this body of literature suggests include, but are not limited to, creating (genetic) diversity in the forests, planting species that have a high tolerance for droughts, assisted migration, creating protected areas, removal of trees that are not well adapted, minimizing stress factors on the forest, reducing the rotation age of productive forests, maximizing forested areas, improving soil quality through agroforestry, flexible management planning, and reducing the forest basal area (Guariguata et al. 2008; Kalame et al. 2009;
Gauthier et al. 2014; Janowiak et al. 2014; Pulhin et al. 2015; Ayres and Lombardero 2018;
Bradford and Bell 2017; Park 2018). Ray et al. (2015) point out that if such adaptation measures are not taken, there will be a high risk that the forests will lose some of their capacity to fulfil the functions that they are fulfilling today.
2.2. Social Science Perspective
Besides the articles that focus on the ecological processes related to climate change, social science related articles have contributed to a deeper understanding of perceptions of climate change, climate change adaptation, and aspects related to the implementation of adaptation.
These studies generally show a low awareness among forest sector stakeholders of climate
change effects, especially in relation to its local impact (e.g. de Koning et al 2014; Lawrence
and Marzano 2014; André et al. 2017), with Canadian and Belgian forest sector stakeholders
being an exception (Sousa-Silva et al. 2016; Ameztegui et al. 2018
). Awareness seemed to be
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higher among those who had direct experience with climate change related disturbances (e.g.
Seidl et al. 2016; Ameztegui et al. 2018). It was also shown that even if awareness of climate change related risks was present, it had most often not resulted in the implementation of climate change adaptation measures (Scott and Lemieux 2007; Milad, Schaich, and Konold 2013;
Sousa-Silva et al. 2016; Uggla and Lidskog 2016). Slightly in contrast to this stands the result from a study carried out by Blennow et al. (2012) which shows, in a comparison of private forest owners in Sweden, Germany, and Portugal, that there seems to be a relation between the beliefs of private forest owners in local climate change effects and their experiences with climate change and the implementation of climate change adaptation measures. They came to this conclusion because the Portuguese participants had both the highest level of believers in local effects and personal experience of climate change, as well as the highest amount of forest owners who already implemented climate change adaptation measures and the Swedish participants scored the lowest on all of these aspects.
Variables that are identified across studies as hampering the adaptive capacity of stakeholders and implementation of adaptive measures include resource limitations, attitudes, trust, top-down control through policies, climate change adaptation actions taken by other forestry actors (Milad, Schaich, and Konold 2013, 1196; van Gameren and Zaccai 2015, 51;
Hagerman 2016, 310; Lawrence 2017, 50), the legal frame, law enforcing capacity, patterns of ownership, the degree to which stakeholders can participate in management planning (Bouriaud et al. 2015, 1596 and 1605), the discourse within the larger forest industry that currently limits alternative thinking (Andersson, Keskitalo, and Berstén 2018, 7-8), and a lack of knowledge and (technical) information (Nelson et al. 2016, 388; Sousa-Silva et al. 2016, 8-10). General challenges to climate change responses identified include uncertainty and policy- and institutional barriers (Spittlehouse 2005, 692). A study by Carlton et al. (2014) found that forestry stakeholders in the United States of America (USA) would be willing to incorporate long-term climate information within their work, but that only a minority of them had access to this kind of information. Jönsson and Gerger Swartling (2014) found that it would help if researchers would communicate more understandably and show the overall picture.
From a geographic perspective, research on the global North in relation to sustainable
forest management seems to focus more on issues related to climate change adaptation and
mitigation specifically, whereas research on the global South also incorporates more social
effects of forest management (Sutterlüty et al. 2018).
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Articles across the globe that focus on the current state of forest policies found that so far, climate change adaptation is either not at all- or only very limitedly integrated within the broader policy framework (e.g. Bele et al. 2011; Živojinović, Wolfslehner, and Tomićević- Dubljević, 2015; Keskitalo et al. 2016), but in some cases general risk management practices can form a starting point for integrating adaptation (Ogden and Innes 2008, 833 and 859;
Kalame et al. 2009, 147). In other cases, the existing policies seem to be flexible enough to allow for a broad range of adaptation measures, but it is not certain if policy makers and managers have both the economic capacity and the social license to implement them (Spies et al. 2010, 1195). Variables that influence the integration of climate change adaptation within forestry policies have been found to be the general framing of climate policies and the opportunities and activities from the forest sector to substantiate a link (Storch and Winkel 2013, 14), as well as the creation of a patchwork of policy legacies that are layered on top of each other (Wellstead and Howlett 2017).
Only very few articles so far have focused on the influence of- and interplay between the various levels of activity involved in forest policy making. Exceptions are articles by Keskitalo and Rayner, McNutt, and Wellstead. Keskitalo (2009) analysed local stakeholders perceptions of vulnerability, adaptation, and adaptive capacity from a multi-level governance perspective, and showed that the local level has only limited influence on higher level decisions (that create the setting in which the local actors can operate), which negatively affects the adaptive capacity of the stakeholders. Rayner, McNutt, and Wellstead (2013) showed that, within the Canadian forest policy sector, the federal departments have lost steering capacity to international actors, provincial mandates are expanded (stretching the available resources), and sophisticated provincial policies compensate for the federal lack of capacity but are inward looking in character.
Similar to the natural science oriented literature on the topic of climate change adaptation within forestry, the social science literature, too, has considered various management options. However, here the focus has been at the social acceptance, interplay with other policy fields, and effectiveness in regard to behavioural change rather than at the ecological effects.
For example, Eriksson (2018) analysed the effects of economic incentives versus information
spreading to private forest owners in Sweden and found that both policy types increased
adaptation intentions but could not significantly predict intentions, whereas other variables such
as ecological- and production values and social context could. Hajjar et al. (2014) found that
the general publics’ view on certain management strategies can be influenced through the
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spreading of information regarding the outcomes of the different strategies. Felton et al. (2016) showed that adaptation and mitigation measures in Sweden often stand in conflict with biodiversity goals, and Reyer et al. (2012) showed the cross-sectoral ecological and socioeconomic interaction of climate change adaptation measures and argued that adaptation without sustainable development will not address all aspects of vulnerability.
Several frameworks and approaches have been developed and applied in an attempt to move the integration of climate change adaptation into policy and the development of appropriate adaptation measures forward. Approaches include the use of forms of participatory backcasting to create future scenarios and visions to aid policy prioritization and transformative change (e.g. Milestad, Svenfelt, and Dreborg 2014; Sandström et al. 2016) and dialogue processes to move beyond controversies and advance decision-making (e.g. Mårald et al. 2015).
The frameworks that were presented are all quite similar and include (in bigger or smaller steps) setting up management objectives and goals, assessing predicted impacts of climate change and related vulnerabilities, the identification of relevant adaptation strategies and ways to implement them, and, finally, the monitoring and evaluating of the effectiveness of the implemented measures. They all make use of stakeholder participation and future scenarios (e.g. Ohlson, McKinnon, and Hirsch 2005; Ogden and Innes 2009; Halofsky et al. 2011;
Gauthier et al 2014; Janowiak et al. 2014; Eyvindson and Kangas 2018). However, only one of these frameworks, developed by Ogden and Innes (2009), takes a holistic approach by not only taking into account climate change variables but also explicitly including aspects relating to the local economy and community in which the adaptation measures will find place. A similar trend can be seen with articles that focus on working out the specifics of only one or two steps mentioned in these frameworks (e.g. vulnerability assessment, identifying relevant adaptation strategies), that often do not explicitly incorporate socioeconomic aspects within their participatory discussions and scenario building approaches (e.g. Waeber et al. 2013; Haatanen et al. 2014; Wallin, Carlsson, and Hansen 2016). Exceptions to this are the work of Jönsson et al. (2012), Seidl and Lexer (2013), and Nilsson et al. (2017).
In line with a report by Klenk et al. (2011) on the results of a workshop carried out in
Canada in which future research topics in relation to climate change adaptation were discussed,
this literature review shows the need to downscale climate change impacts to the local level
whilst including their social, economic, and ecological consequences. Furthermore, it shows
that there is a discrepancy between the clear message of the need for climate change adaptation
measures and the actual implementation of them, both on the ground and in the integration into
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policies. Additionally, there is only a limited understanding of the cross-sectoral dynamics and the interplay between the various levels in which forestry management is embedded. This literature review further makes clear that there is ample knowledge on variables that hamper both the adaptive capacity and the implementation of adaptation measures, but no knowledge on already present variables in the surroundings of the stakeholders that can support adaptation efforts. Furthermore, there are no articles that focus on the strengths of stakeholders and their surrounding that can be used as a starting point for the implementation of adaptation measures.
In the following chapters, this thesis will contribute towards filling some of these gaps by addressing climate change adaptation in the forest sector on the local level through a positive approach.
3. A Theoretical Framework for Change
The structure of the framework is based on the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework as developed by E. Ostrom and colleagues. This structure is chosen as it gives the possibility to create a better understanding of how institutions, defined as “human-constructed constraints or opportunities within which individual choices take place which shape the consequences of their choices” (McGinnis 2011, 170), operate and change. Furthermore, it gives the opportunity to address multiple tiers or levels of change (Poteete, Janssen, and Ostrom 2009, 57-58; Ostrom 2011, 7-9). The IAD framework as such has been used to analyse a variety of resource systems before, showing that it can be adapted to fit the specific resource system under study (Ratner et al. 2013, 186). However, the framework on its own only presents a set of building blocks that need to be filled in further for practical use (Klom and Denters 2018, 120). Ostrom herself has highlighted the compatibility of the framework with a wide variety of different theoretical approaches and urges researchers not to rely on just one theoretical tool when analysing the behaviour of human beings (Ostrom 2005, 103; Ostrom, Cox, and Schlager 2014, 267-268).
Since the focus in this study is on empowering individuals and the local community to take climate change adaptation actions within the forest sector (a change in behaviour/individual- and collective choices), the IAD framework will be combined with theories and approaches that deal directly with empowerment and community change, namely:
Empowerment Theory (ET), Appreciative Inquiry (AI), and Asset Based Community
Development (ABCD). Besides giving additional content to the building blocks of the
framework, these theories and approaches also add something new to it. As will become
apparent throughout this chapter, the IAD framework on its own does not situate the actors in
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their historical context and does not take into account how actors construct their version of the reality within which they act and how these two aspects influence the actions they do or do not take (Clement 2010, 137-138). ET, AI, and ABCD do incorporate these aspects and are, therefore, a valuable addition to the framework. In this context, ET is used to clarify the underlying value orientation and theoretical base at the same level of abstraction as the IAD framework. AI and ABCD on the other hand, are less abstract approaches to begin with (Elliot 1999, v-vi; Mathie and Cunningham 2003, 477) and are drawn on here both to operationalize the framework and to include insights on the construction of both knowledge and personal- and collective motivation for change (Mathie and Cunningham 2003, 478).
In its simplest form, the IAD framework encompasses a set of external variables that form the context of- and influence an action situation that interacts with its outcomes and evaluative criteria, who in turn have an effect on the external variables (see Figure 1). Within the action situation, actors are central (Ostrom 2011, 10).
Figure 1. A Framework for Institutional Analysis (Ostrom 2011, 10).
Below follows a description of each of the different components of the framework, starting with the actors.
3.1. Actors
The actors within an action situation can be individuals, but also, for example, corporate groups.
Actors attach instrumental and subjective meaning to behaviour (i.e. actions) (Ostrom 2011,
12). The IAD framework in its original form focusses on the decision-making process of actors,
but does not prescribe a specific decision-making model. However, it does rely on bounded
rationality principles and, by doing so, concentrates mainly on the resources, access to
information, and information-processing capacities the actors bring towards a decision making
process (Ostrom 2011, 12-14; Ostrom, Cox, and Schlager 2014, 273-274). The IAD framework
does not look at how actors become to be active decision-makers in the first place. Since it is
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precisely this process that is highly relevant for climate change adaptation within the forest sector (to move away from inaction and towards action among stakeholders), the IAD framework is complemented here with ET as it does focus specifically on this process.
Following ET, individual actors have perceptions about their own competences and control over outcomes. The way in which they construct their perceptions of their own competences and reality at large influences the possibility for individual- and communal change (Elliott 1999, 12; Zimmerman 2000, 44-45). A positive perception of one’s own capacity to influence outcomes increases political involvement and broader social action. Social action or citizens’
participation, in its turn, gives the opportunity to apply and shape one’s sense of control and competence (Zimmerman 2000, 46-50). The development and recognition of personal skills/strengths can help the individual actor to solve problems, to make decisions independently, and to develop a grip over issues that concern them (Zimmerman 2000, 46 and 581).
In order to create active change, then, one should empower the actors involved by
looking for positive aspects of situations, rather than negative ones, to identify strengths or
assets rather than weaknesses (Zimmerman 2000, 44-45). An individual actor is seen as being
empowered when he or she has a combination of a sense of control (the intrapersonal
component of individual empowerment), an understanding of his or her socio-political context
(the interactional component of individual empowerment), and engages in social
(collective)/participatory action (the behavioural component of individual empowerment)
(Zimmerman 2000, 47-50). The intrapersonal component looks at perceptions because they are
the drivers behind individual behaviour: “it is unlikely that individuals who do not believe that
they have the capability to achieve goals would either learn about what it takes to achieve those
goals, or do what it takes to accomplish them” (Zimmerman 1995, 589). This sense of control
is composed of perceived competences, the perceived difficulty to utilize control, and the
motivation to exercise control (Zimmerman et al. 1992, 708). The interactional component
includes having knowledge on who has power and (other) resources, how those stand in relation
to the issues of interest, and what influences the decision making. It also includes decision-
making- and problem-solving skills, as they form a bridge between the sense of control and
action to achieve goals. This component can be seen as the preparation for empowered
behaviour (Zimmerman 1995, 589; Zimmerman 2000, 50). The behavioural component
includes behaviour aimed at reaching certain goals/influencing outcomes. The main focus here
is on behaviour in the form of organizational participation or community involvement
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(Zimmerman 1995, 588 and 590). The empowered individual does not necessarily have to possess each of these components to the same degree (Zimmerman 2000, 50). These three components show that even when one focusses on the individual/actor level of empowerment, empowerment is not an individualistic construct. It includes interaction or engagement with the community. It incorporates both a state of mind and certain behaviour and is rooted in ideas of collective capacity building (Zimmerman 1995, 582).
What being empowered means, differs per context and people involved and is situation specific, meaning that one can be regarded as being empowered in one situation in a certain context, but not in another. Therefore, there is no one single standard that can capture whether or not someone is empowered; this standard should be adjusted to the specific situation and context (Perkins and Zimmerman 1995, 585-586). It is further important to highlight here that empowerment is not synonymous with power, but only connected to it. This is true for all three dimensions of power (“to involve a successful attempt by A to get a to do something he would not otherwise do” (Dahl 1957, 204), to be able to confine the scope of decisions that can be made (Barach and Baratz 1962, 948), and to be able to shape/control what someone else thinks he or she wants (Lukes 2005, 27))
1. Someone can be empowered without being in a position of power. Gaining power in the sense described above is only one of many possible desired outcomes. In some contexts it may be, for example, enough to be better informed, to possess more skills, or to be more involved in decision-making processes (being able to state your opinion on something). Being empowered, therefore, does not need to mean that one has power over someone else, but rather that one has power over oneself and the situation one is in. Having power over others in the sense as described above can be an adequate condition of empowerment, but it is not a requisite one (Zimmerman 1995, 592-593; Zimmerman 2000, 57).
Additionally, empowerment refers not to a static outcome, it is a process: certain constructions, activities, or behaviour may be empowering and “the outcome of such processes results in a level of being empowered” (Perkins and Zimmerman 1995, 570). From this point of view, the action situation in which the actors are involved can in itself be made into an empowering process, when it focusses on skill recognition and development (Zimmerman 2000, 46).
1 It has to be noted here that power is a highly contested construct, and this three dimensional view of power is not an uncontested interpretation of it. However, it is outside the scope of this thesis to discuss this in detail. For critique to this three dimensional interpretation of power, and answers to that critique, see for example: Bradshaw 1976; Isaac 1987; Lukes 2005.
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Before attention is turned to what an empowering action situation entails, it is necessary to shed a light on the action situation as such.
3.2. Action Situation
The action situation as presented in the IAD framework can be seen as the conceptual unit, or the social interaction space of actors in which policy choices are taken (McGinnis 2011, 172;
Ostrom 2011, 11). The action situation is constructed around a shared problem that actors try to find a solution to (Ostrom, Cox, and Schlager 2014, 271). It is structured through the actors, who are assigned to positions with a number of permissible actions, the potential outcomes of certain actions, the actors’ control over- and available information about potential outcomes, and the benefits and costs of both actions and potential outcomes (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. The Internal Structure of an Action Situation (Ostrom 2011, 10).
Action situations are generally not clearly separated from one another; rather, they can
overlap and can include different levels of action and change (Ostrom 2011, 15), such as
operational, collective choice, constitutional choice, and meta-constitutional. The operational
level consists of everyday actions with a direct impact on the world but also of the
implementation of decisions resulting from a collective choice process. At the collective choice
level, rules are created and institutions constructed that affect the operational level. The
constitutional level sets the procedures of the collective choice level. Here it is determined who
can participate at the collective choice level and which relationships apply among those
participants. The meta-constitutional level sets constraints on all other levels through a cultural
perception of legitimacy (Koontz 2003, 4-5; McGinnis 2011, 173).
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The insights from AI add to this that the existence of an action situation in itself is the beginning of change. Through the principle of simultaneity it is brought forward that while the actors think and talk about possibilities for change, the initial seeds for change itself are planted (Elliot 1999, 15-16; Cooperrider, Whitney, and Stavros 2008, 8-10). However, to turn these initial beginnings of change into something more substantial, into an implementation of change, the action situation should be of an empowering nature (Zimmerman 2000, 43).
3.2.1. Action Situation as an Empowering Process
In order to turn the action situation into an empowering process toward change, it is drawn here on insights from AI and ABCD. As has been discussed above, the way in which the actors in the action situation construct their perception of their own competences and reality influences the possibility for change. As Mathie and Cunningham (2003, 477) argue: “a recognition of strengths and assets is more likely to inspire positive action for change in a community than is an exclusive focus on needs and problems”. Therefore, in an empowering action situation, skills and assets are central. Positive aspects of the present are highlighted as a base on which positive visions of the future can be built (Elliott 1999, 2). The strengths and assets can be identified for the individual actor (in the form of their specific skills), but also for associations (in the existence of voluntary groups), institutions (in the availability of paid, structurally organized groups that can help create a feeling of civic responsibility and acquire resources), connections (in how far assets are being shared across a community), and physical aspects that are connected to the action situation (Kretzman and McKnight 1993, 1-2). The combination of these capacities or assets within a community is the driving force for change (Kretzman and McKnight 1993, 5-6; Rönkkö and Aarrevaara 2017, 400-401).
This focus on the positive and strengths does not mean that one should deny that there generally can also be negative aspects to each circumstance an actor can be in, or that in some cases external resources might be needed. It only suggests to choose a different focal point by highlighting the positive as something that can be worked with to construct reality (Kretzman and McKnight 1993, 7; Elliot 1999, 9 and 12). Since the skills and assets are so vital, it is not only important to recognize those that are present, but also to create possibilities to build further ones and to eradicate structures that form an obstacle to these possibilities (Mathie and Cunningham 2003, 477-478).
Ideally, an empowering action situation should include the identification of past
successful (communal) achievements and an examination of which variables (including
institutions) contributed to the creation of these achievements (the historical context).
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Furthermore, it should include identifying current assets and the creation of a desired future vision and short- and long-term goals that are steppingstones towards achieving the desired future (Elliott 1999, 3-4; Mathie and Cunningham 2003, 477). The collective imagination of a future vision is essential, as it will shape the behaviour of the present (Elliot 1999, 15-16;
Cooperrider, Whitney, and Stavros 2008, 8-10). Finally, an empowering action situation should include discussions on how these goals can be reached and who will have which responsibilities throughout the process. In all of these stages a wide range of stakeholders should be involved (Elliott 1999, 3-4; Mathie and Cunningham 2003, 477). See Figure 4 further down below for an overview.
In the context of this study, the empowering action situation is a one-day workshop in which students try to find solutions to the shared problem of how to adapt locally to climate change within the forest sector, with an emphasis on Västerbotten County. As action situations generally overlap, this empowering action situation does not stand on its own. Rather, it is closely connected to the larger societal process of climate change adaptation. Throughout this study ‘empowering action situation’ refers to the workshop, whereas ‘action situation’ refers to the larger societal process of climate change adaptation in the forest sector.
3.3. External Variables/Context
The external variables form the context in which the action situation finds place, and will therefore be referred to here as the context. The context includes the biophysical conditions, the attributes of the community, and the rules-in-use (McGinnis 2011, 172). These variables are of a non-static nature; they are prone to change through the influence and outcomes of previous action situations (Ostrom 2011, 11; McGinnis 2016, 12).
3.3.1. Biophysical Conditions
The biophysical conditions describe the characteristics of the physical world and will, therefore,
differ from case to case (Koontz 2003, 3-4). In this study they are characterized by the past-,
current-, and projected climate in Västerbotten County, the state of the forests (ecosystem), as
well as the interplay between them. Furthermore, they also include past-, current-, and projected
trends of (global) demographics, economy, and technological development, as well as the
political (policy) landscape, as they have a strong indirect influence on the way in which the
forest is used (Pich-Madruga 2016, 97). Following AI and ABCD, the past biophysical
conditions are included because lessons on how to adapt to change can be learned from the
changes of the past. The current biophysical conditions are included because it forms the
starting point for possible actions today. Finally, the (projected) future biophysical conditions
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are included because that is what the adaptation is aimed toward (Elliott 1999, 3-4; Mathie and Cunningham 2003, 477). See Figure 4 for an overview.
In this study, the biophysical conditions are presented in two different ways. They are first examined in chapter 5.1. as the context within which the actors can discuss their perceptions on local climate change adaptation in the forest sector. Later on, in sub-chapter 6.1., they are discussed in relation to the perceived strengths and assets that the actors identified.
3.3.2. Attributes of the Community
The attributes of the community create the social and cultural context of an action situation.
Within the original IAD framework, it can include the level of trust between community members, the existence or absence of a norm of reciprocity, the degree of common understanding of goals and core values within the community, the available social capital, and the cultural repertoire on which the community can rely for deliberation and implementation processes (such as norms, strategies, rules, and organizational structures) (McGinnis 2011, 175- 176). Insights from ABCD show that especially the existence of social capital, or relationships and interaction networks that exist between community members, is a valuable asset on which can be drawn to enable change. It can be either used as a source of assistance or support to get by in difficult times (bonding social capital) or to get ahead (bridging social capital). The bridging social capital can extend to outside of the community and gives leverage in, for example, processes of resource mobilization (Mathie and Cunningham 2003, 479-480). Due to the focus of empowerment in this study, structures within the community that can contribute to the opportunities for the actors to become empowered (structures that enable participation and goal achievement), and that are empowered themselves, are also important. Therefore, ET adds to the attributes of the community the existence or absence of empowered- and empowering organizations and communities (see Figure 4). These kind of organizations and communities are more than just an assemblage of empowered individuals (Perkins and Zimmerman 1995, 571). Organizations that empower provide opportunities for individuals to become empowered.
Such organizations will focus on community building, give members the opportunity to be actively involved through a variety of roles and participatory decision making, create a support system of peers, and have a shared leadership. Empowered organizations are organizations that can develop and influence policy decisions, are effective in reaching their own goals, do well among competitors, and are capable of mobilizing resources (Zimmerman 2000, 51-53).
Empowering communities, on the other hand, offer accessible resources to all their members,
are tolerant for diversity, and have a governmental system that is open and that listens to the
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community members. Empowered communities are communities that set up initiatives to improve the community and that are capable to protect the quality of life. In an empowered community, various components (such as organizations) come together to identify, address, and meet community needs (Zimmerman 2000, 47 and 54-55). It has to be noted here that the direction of influence does not only go from the organizational- and communal level to the individual/actor level but also the other way around (Zimmerman 1995, 582).
In the context of this study, community refers to a spatial unit, e.g. the community of Västerbotten, the community of Umeå, etc. Additionally, it refers to the group of actors that take part in the empowering action situation. As the empowering action situation in this study is rather artificially constructed, the attributes of the community that is formed by the actors have to be shaped and determined throughout the empowering action situation. The attributes of the larger community the actors belong to as inhabitants of Västerbotten County are discussed and identified during the empowering action situation and with the help of a questionnaire.
3.3.3. Rules-in-Use
The rules in the IAD framework are the actors’ shared understandings of which actions are necessary, allowed, or not-allowed and most of them are created through problem-solving processes. How stable rule-ordered actions are, depends on whether or not there exists shared meaning about what a specific rule entails (whether or not there is room for multiple interpretations of a given rule) (Ostrom 2011, 17-19). Ostrom has identified seven types of rules, classified according to the impact they have on the action situation (see Figure 3).
However, the explanation of these various rule types in the literature is not very exhaustive, and they will be, therefore, interpreted with the help of ET, IA, and ABCD where needed.
The first three types of rules, boundary-, position-, and choice rules, concern the actor, its position, and options of choice directly. The boundary rules dictate which, and how many, actors are part of a specific action situation, how they can become part of it and leave it, and which resources and attributes they have (Ostrom, Cox, and Schlager 2014, 278-279).
Following the need for communal change to implement climate change adaptation, and relying
on the insights of IA and ABCD, in this case, ideally all community members that have a stake
in the content of the action situation should be involved, as the strength for change or
development lies in the community as a whole, in collective action (Elliott 1999, 3-4; Mathie
and Cunningham 2003, 481-482). The position rules subscribe who fulfils which position
within this specific situation (Ostrom 2011, 19). Following ET and ABCD, all actors involved
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within the action situation should have an active role. An emphasis should be put on collaboration, not on experts imposing their ideas from the outside. Whenever external actors are included into an action situation, they should only take on a facilitatory role, without creating dependency (Zimmerman 2000, 44-45; Mathie and Cunningham 2003, 482-483). The choice rules set out the actions that actors can, ought, or ought-not take, given their position (Ostrom, Cox, and Schlager 2014, 278-279).
The other four rule types are information rules, aggregation rules, pay-off rules, and scope rules. Information rules set out what information is available to which actor, but also what information will be made public or held secret (McGinnis 2016, 12). Aggregation rules impact how much control an actor in a specific position has in the choice of a certain action.
These kinds of rules set out if one needs the agreement of, or permission from, others to take certain actions (Ostrom, Cox, and Schlager 2014, 279). Pay-off rules influence the costs and benefits from certain sets of actions and outcomes and specify incentives and disincentives for actions. Scope rules demarcate potential outcomes and actions connected to certain outcomes (Ostrom 2011, 20-21).
Figure 3. Rules as Exogenous Variables Directly Affecting the Elements of an Action Situation (Ostrom 2011, 20).
Within this study, some rules are clearly set beforehand, while others are up for
discussion during the empowering action situation. The rules that are set beforehand are rules
in relation to the specific empowering action situation of this study. The boundary rules are set
to only include students from Umeå University and the Swedish University of Agricultural
Science in Umeå. How and why this boundary was set is further explained in sub-chapter 4.2.2.
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The position rules are set in accordance to the insights from ET and ABCD, so that the actors have an active and equal role in every step that is taken during the empowering action situation, whereas the researcher only functions as a facilitator. Furthermore, the information rules stipulate here that all the actors will receive the same information both during and before the empowering action situation. However, as the actors will come from different backgrounds, they will bring in different background information from which they can draw, increasing the knowledge that can be utilized during the empowering action situation. Additionally, the discussions during the empowering action situation and the results thereof will be made public through this thesis, but no specific contributions will be recognizably linked to individual actors. The final rule type that is set beforehand is the scope rule. As the focus of this study is on climate change adaptation within the forest sector and the empowering action situation is modelled around that, the scope rules limit the potential outcomes of the empowering action situation to only be connected to this topic. The rules that are discussed during the empowering action situation are the rules that are present, or that the actors wish to be present, in the broader action situation of climate change adaptation in the forest sector and include the position-, aggregation-, choice-, information-, and pay-off rules.
Figure 4. A Framework for Change.
(Adaptation of the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework by Ostrom (2011,10)).
3.4. Evaluation
Finally, when it comes to the evaluation of the outcomes of an (empowering) action situation
and the processes that led to them, many criteria can be used and trade-offs between different
criteria can occur (Ostrom 2011, 15-17; Ostrom, Cox, and Schlager 2014, 275-276). In the
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context of this study, the evaluation focusses on whether or not the empowering action situation has led to a change in the degree of empowerment (see Figure 4). As the empowering action situation here only consists of a single one-day workshop, the evaluation will concentrate on the empowerment of the individual actors. How the concept of empowerment is operationalized for evaluation is further explained in sub-chapter 4.3.2.
4. Method and Material
4.1. Research Design
This thesis is designed as an experimental case study. The case study is qualitative in its design, yet incorporates some quantitative aspects due to the use of triangulation in the data collection.
It is chosen here to make use both of qualitative- and quantitative methods of data collection because they can complement one another and extend the knowledge that can be gained through this study (Jick 1979, 603; Ritchie and Ormston 2014, 40-41). The case study design is chosen because it suits both the aim and the theoretical underpinning of this study as it gives the opportunity to thoroughly analyse a specific phenomenon embedded within its context (Flyvbjerg 2006, 222-223; Baxter and Jack 2008, 544; Noor 2008, 1602-1603).
The main part of the case study is designed in the form of a participatory backcasting workshop. This format is in line with the theoretical base of this study, as it gives local actors the chance to be actively involved in the process of bringing about change, creating an opportunity for empowerment (Carlsson-Kanyama et al. 2008, 34-35; Pulhin et al. 2015, 259).
Furthermore, previous research has shown that strategies for adaptation that are developed through participation of local actors will be more successful than when these strategies are developed without such involvement (Ogden and Innes 2009, 2; Reyer et al. 2012, 538; Nelson et al. 2016, 389). Additionally, the workshop format gives the opportunity to include multiple perspectives and expertise as actors with various backgrounds can come together (Halofsky et al. 2011, 220). Because the workshop has been pre-structured, and the topic pre-defined, without input from the actors, the workshop can be regarded as an experimental case study rather than as a participatory action research process (McIntyre 2008, 5-6 and 12; Carlsson- Kanyama, Carlsen, and Dreborg 2013, 11; Lewis and McNaughton Nicholls 2014, 67-69).
The workshop is supplemented with a questionnaire that includes qualitative and
quantitative elements. It is used both as a preparation for the workshop and as a tool to assess
the actors’ degree of empowerment in regard to local climate change adaptation in the forest
sector. The questionnaire is an appropriate method for this study as it is a simple tool to get
insight into the actors’ (intended) behaviour and thoughts in regard to the forest and their level
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of empowerment (Hox, de Leeuw, and Dillman 2008, 1). Furthermore, as the same questionnaire can be carried out both before and after the workshop, it can be a useful tool to give an indication of changes in the thoughts and (intended) behaviour of the actors (Harkness 2008, 60). The fact that the questionnaire cannot address the reasons behind the answers the actors gave (the why-question) (Ritchie and Ormston 2014, 40-41) is not a problem, as this can be addressed where relevant during the workshop.
The critique that has been voiced against the use of a case study as a scientific method, namely that its results cannot be generalized, can be contested and is also not of high relevance for this specific study. It can be contested by the argument that critical single cases can falsify previously followed theories (for example the single viewing of a black swan refutes the idea that swans are always white) and by the argument that lessons can be learned from a single case that can be relevant knowledge for other cases to draw on (Flyvbjerg 2006, 223-228). The critique is not of high relevance for this study, because this study does not aim to find generalizable pathways to climate change adaptation within the forest sector, it aims to find locally, context dependent ones. However, general lessons learned from this case may be relevant for other cases that aim towards local climate change adaptation.
4.2. Case Selection
4.2.1. Climate Change Adaptation in the Forest Sector in Västerbotten
The case that is being examined in this study is local climate change adaptation within the forest sector in Västerbotten County in Sweden. This case is used here as a typical case of general local climate change adaptation within the forest sector. It is representative for other similar cases, as the underlying processes of change are the same across cases, yet at the same time, it is unique due to the specific local context it is embedded in. Furthermore, this case is not an example of local climate change adaptation in general. However, there may be overarching lessons that can be learned from this specific case that can also be relevant for local climate change adaptation in other areas.
The focus on Västerbotten County is chosen for several reasons. First, the high degree
of freedom of forest owners and citizens in Sweden in regard to forest management and -use
(Mårald et al. 2017, 21-22; Johansson, Sandström, and Lundmark 2018, 4) means that the local
community can have direct influence over how the forest sector adapts to climate change. This
is further amplified by the fact that most forests, both in Sweden and in Västerbotten
specifically, are privately owned (SLU 2018, 67). Second, previous studies showed that Sweden
has both very low awareness of the possible effects of climate change adaptation among the
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forest sector stakeholders and very limited implementation of adaptation measures (e.g.
Blennow et al. 2012). Third and finally, Västerbotten County is one of the forest richest counties in Sweden (SLU 2018, 49-51). A more detailed description of Västerbotten County and its forest sector is presented in sub-chapter 5.1.
4.2.2. Participants: Students from Umeå University and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Because of the scope of this study, it was chosen to only focus on one of the major stakeholder groups within the forest sector, which in itself encapsulates various different stakeholder groups of tomorrow, namely students (Seidl et al. 2016, 430-431; Ameztegui et al. 2018, 2). Students are not only an important stakeholder group of today, as adaptation decisions that are being made now will have an influence on how they can make use of the forest throughout their lives (given the long-term planning timeline of both forestry and climate change), but they are also important as stakeholders of tomorrow when they start to take on decision-making positions in all kinds of fields in society. Following the insights from the theoretical frame, to ideally include all community members that have a stake in the content of the action situation, it was chosen to give all students an opportunity to be a participant in this study, regardless of their background (field of study, country of origin, etc.). Students from the two universities in Västerbotten, Umeå University and the Swedish University of Agricultural Science (SLU) in Umeå, were approached for participation. The students were contacted in a variety of ways, including addressing them directly in the classroom before lectures or in the hallways, and reaching out indirectly via snowballing and a message on the Facebook page of one of the student unions at Umeå University. All these efforts eventually led to ten students agreeing to participate. Of these ten, seven actually did (the other three had to cancel on the day of the workshop), namely:
Johanna Mattson, Linnea Forssén, Linnéa Rohlin, Magnus Persson, Oscar Walheim, Paula Savina, and Sigrid Vallström. Most of the students that were approached, but did not agree to participate, mentioned either that they had no time or that they were not interested in the topic of climate change.
The selection method that was used did not give a guarantee that the participants would
be representative for all students in Västerbotten County. Even though students with different
backgrounds were addressed equally, it was not made sure that students from all different
disciplines, different phases in the study process, or different nationalities were represented
among the participants. It should therefore be kept in mind that this study only represents the
ideas of the participants, and not of all students from all different backgrounds.
23 4.3. Case Design
4.3.1. Participatory Backcasting
