Energy for
Development
The Beijer Institute The Scandinavian Institute Thc Royat Swedish of A-ffican Studies
Arrtdemy of Sciences UppsaEa, Sweden
Stockholm, Sweden
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA 11
ENERGY FOR DEVELOPMENT IN ZIMBABWE
Edited by
Richard H. Hosier
Published by
THE BEUER INSTITUTE and THE SCANDINAVIAN INSTITUTE
The Royal Swedish OF AFRICAN STUDIES
Academy of Sciences Uppsala, Sweden
Stockholm, Sweden
The series "Energy, Environment and Development in Africa"
is published jointly by the Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, with financial support from the Swedish International Development Authority
(SIDA)
.
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT I N AFRICA Other titles in this series:
1. Energy and Development in Kenya: Opportunities and Constraints. P. 0' Keefe, P. Raskin and S. Bernow (Eds)
.
2. SADCC: Energy and Development to the Year 2000. J.T.C Simoes (Ed)
.
3. Energy and Development in Southern Africa: SADCC Country Studies, Part I. P. 0' Keefe and B. Munslow (Eds)
.
4. Energy and Development in Southern Africa: SADCC Country Studies, Part 11. P. 0' Keefe and B. Munslow (Eds)
.
5. Manufacturing Industry and Economic Development in the SADCC Countries. R. Peet.
6. Wood, Energy and Households: Perspectives on Rural Kenya. C. Barnes, J. Ensminger and P. 0' Keefe (Eds)
.
7. Energy Use in Rural Kenya: Household Demands and Rural Transformation. R.H. Hosier.
8. LEAP: A Description of the LDC Energy Alternatives Planning System. Paul D. Raskin.
9. Zimbabwe: Energy Planning for National Development. R.H.
Hosier (Ed)
.
10. Zimbabwe: Industrial and Commercial Energy Use. R.H.
Hosier (Ed)
.
11. Energy for Rural Development in Zimbabwe. R.H. Hosier (Ed)
.
ISSN 0281-8515 ISBN 91-7106-278-5
0
The Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies 1988Printed in Sweden by
Bohuslaningens AB, Uddevalla 1988
FOREWORD
The s t u d i e s p r e s e n t e d i n t h i S Volume were o r i g i n a l l y c a r r i e d o u t as p a r t o f t h e Zimbabwe Energy A c c o u n t i n g P r o j e c t (ZEAP). The ZEAP was a j o i n t u n d e r t a k i n g between t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e o f t h e Royal Swedish Academy o f Sciences and t h e M i n i s t r y o f Water and Energy Resources and Development o f t h e Republic o f Zimbabwe. The o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e P r o j e c t were f o u r f o l d , namely:
( 1 ) To e s t a b l i s h a d e t a i l e d end-use energy a c c o u n t i n g system f o r Zimbabwe;
( 2 ) To examine r u r a l energy problems i n general
,
and t h e woodfuel problem i n p a r t i c u l a r ;( 3 ) To examine, i n d e t a i l , i n d u s t r i a l energy consumption and t h e commercial f u e l supply s e c t o r s ;
and
( 4 ) To develop a s e t o f p r o j e c t s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e
Government-S o v e r a l l p o l i c y d i r e c t i o n s t o address t h e energy problems i d e n t i f i e d .
The m a t e r i a l s i n t h i s Volume, which c o n c e n t r a t e on t h e second o b j e c t i v e above, a r e p u b l i s h e d f o r two reasons: F i r s t , t h e r e i s g e n e r a l l y v e r y l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e on Zimbabwe energy i s s u e s . Second, t h e o v e r a l l c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e ZEAP p r o j e c t , summarized i n Volume 9 o f t h i s s e r i e s , was o n l y a b l e t o r e f l e c t t h e " t i p o f t h e i c e b e r g " o f work t h a t went i n t o t h e ZEAP e f f o r t .
I am most g r a t e f u l t o a l l o u r Zimbabwean and o t h e r c o l l e a g u e s who c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s volume (see page 243). I am p a r t i c u l a r l y i n d e b t e d t o D r R i c h a r d H o s i e r who has t a k e n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r u p - d a t i n g and e d i t i n g o f t h e ZEAP m a t e r i a l t h a t went i n t o t h i s Volume.
Gordon T. Goodman E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r Bei j e r I n s t i t u t e
PREFACE
The papers published in this book represent the collec- t i v e and individual thoughts o f the working group o n r u r a l energy development of the Zimbabwe Energy Accounting Project (ZEAP). The project was a joint undertaking between t h e Beijer Institute of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Water and Energy Resources and Development of the Government of Zimbabwe.
The first paper was formulated by the entire rural energy working group. Originally written in late 1383, i t w a s intended to formulate the major concepts and issues t o inform the remainder of the work on rural energy. The papers then progressively focus o n agriculture, households, and energy technology and the environment. The second paper p r o v i d e s a t h o r o u g h l o o k a t e n e r g y u s e ~n Z i m b a b w e ' s agricultural sector. This is complemented by the third paper o n land-use patterns and ecological potential. From t h e agricultural sector, the papers then turn to the household s e c t o r . T h e f o u r t h p a p e r a n a l y s e s h o u s e h o l d e n e r g y consumption and uses a multinomial logit framework to analyze the determinants o f fuel choice throughout Zimbabwe. T h e fifth paper focuses on the role of women in Zimbabwe's rural energy economy. T h e final four papers address issues o f energy technology and the environment in rural Zimbabwe. The sixth paper focuses on the efficiency of domestic cookstoves and presents the results of a comprehensive stove-testing program carried out a s part of the ZEAP. The seventh paper examines current tree-planting, and agroforestry practices in Zimbabwe. The eighth paper looks at the impact of fuelwood harvesting on soil erosion in Zimbabwe's communal areas. The final paper assesses the potential o f renewable energy technologies for making a significant impact o n the major problems in Zimbabwe's rural energy system.
I am greatly indebted to a l l the contributors to this volume, and I hope that the final product is worthy of their efforts. A special vote of thanks goes to Bonnie Ram who was the project administrator responsible for organizing most of the work. I would like to thank Lars Kristoferson and Gordon Goodman for their encouragement to organize and publlsh this material. Keith Adams spent endless hours deciphering notes, tracing references, editing drafts, and finally putting a l l of this into acceptable form. Priscilla Chinyangara, Solveig Nilsson, and Lori Cole all deserve thanks for having entered different versions of these papers onto word processors and then revised them. Any errors o f omission or commission remaining at this point are solely the respons~bility of the editor.
Richard B. Hosier August 1987
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
CONTENTS
I. Energy for Rural Development in Zimbabwe: Concepts 1 and Issues for Growth with Equity
1. Introduction 1
2. Energy for Rural Development in Zimbabwe 1 3. Approaches to Energy Planning in Developing 3
Countries
4. Zimbabwe's Rural Structure and Energy System 10
5. Zeap Rural Energy Studies 14
6. Rural Energy Policy Issues 16
11. Energy Use in Zimbabwe's Agricultural Sector 20
Introduction 20
Energy Use in Agriculture 2 1
Zimbabwe's Natural Resource Base 2 3 Zimbabwe's Agrarian Structure 2 5 Energy Use in Zimbabwe's Agricultural Sector 3 2 The Energetics of Agriculture in Zimbabwe 3 5 Key Issues for Agricultural Energy Development 45
Summary and Recommendations 5 2
111. Methodology for the Assessment of Land-Use in Zimbabwe
1. Introduction 60
2. Land Areas and Ecological Zones 60
3. Distribution of Cultivation 6 7
4. Indigenous Forest and Grazing Land and Non- 7 1 Utilizable land
5. Agricultural Productivity 7 3
Appendices: The distribution of Land by Natural 75 Region, 1982
Appendix 111-1: Communal Land 7 5 Appendix 111-2: LSCF and State Farms 7 7 Appendix 111-3: Resettled Areas 7 9 Appendix 111-4: SSCF
IV. Household Energy Use in Zimbabwe: An Analysis of Consumption Patterns and Fuel Choice
1. Introduction
2. Physical and Conceptual Background
3. Residential Energy Consumption in Zimbabwe 4. Household Fuel Choice
5. Conclusions
V. Women and the Rural Energy Economy of Zimbabwe: 110 Research Findings and Policy Issues
1. Introduction
2. Women and Rural Energy
3. Towards a 17omen-Oriented Rural Energy Development Policy
VI. Performance Testing Domestic Cookstoves for Zimbabwe 142 1. Introduction
2. The Program 3. The Stoves
4. Results and Discussion 5. Conclusions
VII. Fuelwood Consumption and Supply Patterns, Tree- 160 Planting Practices, and Farm Forestry in
Rural Zimbabwe 1. Introduction
Part I. Fuelwood Consumption Patterns and Supply in Rural Zimbabwe
2. Background
3. Fuel Types, Appliances and Preferred Fuelwood Species
4. \?ood Storage
5. How Fuel is Obtained 6. Source of Fuelwood 7. Transport
8. Demand and Supply 9. Wood Resource Adequacy
Part 11. Tree-Planting Practices and the Potential Role of Farm Forestry in Zimbabwe's Rural Areas
10. Introduction
11. Results of the Tree-Planting Survey 12. Discussion
13. Farm Forestry 14. General Discussion 15. Conclusions
VIII.Woodfuel Harvesting and Soil Erosion in Zimbabwe 185
1. Introduction 185
2. Factors Influencing Soil Erosion and Erosion 186 Rates in Zimbabwe
3. Soil Erosion Hazard 190
4. Soil Erosion Observations 191
5. Erosion Classification Scheme 193 6. General Conclusions from Field Observations 194
IX. The Prospect for Application of Renewable Energy Technologies in Zimbabwe's Rural, Domestic and Agricultural Sectors
Introduction Demand
Renewable Energy Resources
Review of Applications and Technology Cooking and Heating
Water Heating
Traction and Transport
Irrigation, Stock Watering and Domestic
\later Pumping Conclusions
List of Contributors Index
L I S T OF TABLES
Chapter I
1-1 Classification Matrix for Rural Energy Studies 8
1-2 Zeap Project Studies 15
Chapter I1
Land Areas by Natural Region 2 5
Distribution of Agricultural Land 2 6 Energy Consumption in the Agricultural Sector 3 2 Energy Consumption in the LSCF Sector 3 3 Energy Consumption in the LSCF Sector by Crop 34 Energy Consumption for the Major LSCF Crops 3 5 Energetic Efficiency of Maize Production in 36
Zimbabwe's LSCF Sector and the United States
Energetic Efficiency of Wheat Production in 3 7 Zimbabwe's LSCF Sector and the United States
Energetic Efficiency of Wheat Production on Two 38 Lowveld State Farms in Zimbabwe
Energy Intensity of Irrigated Cotton Production 39 Production Statistics: Communal Areas 40 Energy Inputs and Outputs: Communal Areas 4 1 Production Statistics: Resettlement Schemes (A) 43 Energy Inputs and 0utputs:Resettlement Schemes (A) 43
Chapter I11
Related Farming Systems
Provincial Land-Use Totals by Natural Region 6 3 Land-Use Categories and Agro-Ecological Regions 65 Land-Use Categories in Zimbabwe 6 6
Forest Lands 6 7
Projection of Cropped Land 69
Projected Increases in Agricultural Production 7 0 Non-Utilizable Land in Zimbabwe 7 1 Indigenous ~ o r e s t / ~ r a z i n g Land in Zimbabwe 7 2 Distribution of Non-Utilizable Land 7 2
Chapter IV IV- 1 IV- 2 IV-3 IV-4 IV- 5 IV-6 IV-7 IV-8 TV-9 IV-10 IV-11 IV-12
Fuel Consumption by Residential Subsector 8 8 Fuel Consumption by Income Category 89 Fuel Consumption by Natural Region 9 1 Definition of MNL Variables: National Level 9 5 Analysis of Individual Parameters: National Level 97 Sign Effects of Variables: National Level 98 Definition of MNL Variables: Urban Areas 100 Analysis of Individual Parameters: Urban Areas 101 Sign Effects of Variables: Urban Areas 102 Definition of MNL Variables: Rural Areas 103 Analysis of Individual Parameters 104 Sign Effects of Variables: Rural Areas 105
Chapter V
v-
lv-
2v-
3 v-4v-
5 V- 6v-
7 V-8 v-9 v-10 v-l lv-
12 V-13 V-14 V-15 V-16Population Pressures and Timber Shortages Heads of Households by Age and Sex
Women's Labor Contribution per Task Karange TTL Labor Input in Agriculture
Major Food Crop Cycles and Labor Input by Sex Labor Input In Rural Zimbabwe by Task
Age and Gender Composition of Labor Tasks: Timing and Labor Input for Maize
Labor Input by Task: Percentage of Working Hours Seasonal Schedule of Daily Activities for Women Length of Day for Men and Women
Labor Intensity by Age and Gender
Household Labor Times for Fuelwood Collection Family Decision-Making in Rural Zimbabwe Age and Gender Composition: Crop Production Peasant Crops Grown for Food or Cash
Chapter V11
Tree-Part Use as Fuel Distance to Fuel Source Forms of Transport
National Fuelwood Supply and Demand Relationships Provincial Fuelwood Supply and Demand
Fuelwood Supply and Demand for Three Provinces
~ype/Frequency of Trees Planted in Communal Areas Percentages of Seedling Sources
Percentages of Tree-Planting Initiatives Percentages of Tree-Planting Purposes
Chapter V111
VIII-1 Soil Loss from Crops Having Varying Cover Values 188 V11I-2 The Categories of Erosion in Zimbabwe 189 VIII-3 Soil Erosion Hazard in Communal Areas 190 VIII-4 Erosion Observations in Makoni District 192 VIII-5 Erosion Observations in Marange District 193
Chapter IX IX- 1 IX-2 IX-3 IX-4 IX-5 IX-6 IX-7 IX-8
Final Consumption by Sector Fuel Consumption by End-Use Fuel Consumption by End-Use Fuel Consumption by Epd-Use
Average Monthly Rainfall by Catchment Area Technical Characteristics: Selected Applications Technical Characteristics: Selected Technologies Selected ~pplication/Technology Matches
LIST OF MAPS
Map 11-1 Distribution of Natural Regions by Province 2 4 Map 11-2 Distribution of Large-scale Commercial and 2 7
Communal Farm Areas by Natural Region
Map 11-3 Distribution of Resettlement Schemes 30 by Natural Region
Map 11-4 Tillage Zone Map of Mechanical Tillage Program 51
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 11-1 Effect of Fertilizer on Maize Yields 4 8 Figure V-l Age-Gender Pyramid in Communal Areas 113 Figure VI-1 Constant Power Tests: Efficiency v Output 155 Figure VII-1 Fuelwood Supply Balance: Base-Case Scenario 168 Figure IX-1 Typical Daily Rural CookingIHeating Schedule 220
I . ENERGY FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT I N ZIMBABiJE:
COMCEPTS AND I S S U E S FOR GROWTH WITH EQUITY D. Q. Chandiwana, T. Harris
,
R. Hosier,K. Johnson, S. Moyo and D. Tleiner
1. INTRODUCTION
This paper serves to set out the conceptual foundation o f the rural energy studies carried o u t a s part o f the Zimbabwe Energy Accounting Project (ZEAP). This foundation was drawn from a n understanding o f energy planning models, the social-economic context of rural development in Zimbabwe, and a critical attitude towards much o f the rural energy planning which had taken place to date. Our concern
-
hencethe focus of this paper
-
was the cursory attention given to r u r a l e n e r g y p r o b l e m s , i n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e l a c k o f a n integrated conception of rural development and energy issues in most planning exercises. This paper also outlines ZEAP in broad strokes, and in more specific terms, details the issues t o b e a d d r e s s e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s a n d t h e methodologies that should be used in any study dealing with energy for rural development in Zimbabwe. It is important to stress that this paper is not a summary of the rural studies a c t u a l l y carried out in ZEAP, but rather a presentation of the background, aims, methods and concepts o f the issue, leaving discussion o f the actual results obtained in the studies to the other chapters in this volume.We begin with a brief discussion o f the g o a l s o f rural development in Zimbabwe and the energy implications of these goals. W e stress the need to supply energy for subsistence and d e v e l o p m e n t purposes. A presentation and critique o f common energy planning approaches £01 lows. This sets the stage for a discussion o f our approach to energy planning.
The final section addresses several o f the most r e l e v a n t policy issues in rural energy.
2. ENERGY FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN ZIMBABWE
T h e o n l y major document to address both the energy and rural d e v e l o p m e n t questions, a l b e i t in isolation, is the Transitional National Development Plan (Republic of Zimbabwe, 1982). T h e p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e o f t h e p l a n f o r r u r a l development is to achieve growth and equity simultaneously.
Central to the p l a n is the enhancement o f rural incomes, l e v e l o f education, agricultural productivity, and job creation. This strategy o f spatial economic integration involves a land reform program (in the form of resettlement), the establishment o f rural growth and service centers, as w e l l a s a general improvement in access to social and physical infrastructures.
If this rural development strategy is to succeed, the increase o f rural energy supplies is crucial. Along with increased energy used for rural infrastructure and other large scale projects, equitable growth necessitates an increased flow of energy to the poorest of rural households.
Presently there is a real danger that access to energy supplies for development purposes w i l l be limited to the upper income groups in rural areas. This would intensify the process of agrarian differentiation and directly counter the growth with equity objective. Any attempt, therefore, to address this question requires a clear understanding of the energy processes within the Zimbabwean agrarian structure.
In successful l y providing energy for rural development, there must also be provision of sufficient energy for purposes of subsistence. Rural development requires rural surplus generation with local reinvestment. This cannot occur if people are struggling to maintain a subsistence standard of living. Unfortunately, in many areas of Zimbabwe, the initial hurdle of providing energy for the acquisition o f basic needs has not yet been completed. Therefore, certain subsectors within the Zimbabwean agrarian structure require special attention before their development needs for energy can be considered.
It is therefore the task of the Department of Energy to ensure that the broad policy objective of growth with equity in the energy sector is implemented. To this end, the Department's central guiding principles are as follows:-
(1) To ensure a balanced and equitable development and expansion of energy supplies to meet the energy n e e d s o f a l l s e c t o r s o f t h e e c o n o m y , paying particular attention to the energy needs of communal areas, and seeking tobring this sector into the mainstream of economic development.
(2) To conserve the country's scarce foreign exchange by developing to the f u l l e s t extent the indigenous energy resources, particularly new and renewable energy sources.
(3) To achieve security of local energy supplies and thus reduce dependence on imported energy resources.
The Government's emphasis on the provision of energy for rural areas is evident in the variety of projects undertaken towards research and development of new and renewable energy resources; particularly in the fields of biogas, solar energy and rural afforestation. These efforts are complemented by energy conservation measures geared towards the household.
Rural electrification is also being considered at the national l e v e l , focusing initially on growth and service centers.
With respect to biogas, seventeen demonstration plants have been set up at various schools and business centers in
t h e c o u n t r y t o p r o m o t e p u b l i c a w a r e n e s s o f b i o g a s a s a n a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e o f e n e r g y . I n t h e a r e a o f s o l a r e n e r g y , w a t e r h e a t e r s , pumps and s o l a r c l i n i c s h a v e been i n s t a l l e d a t v a r i o u s l o c a t i o n s o n a n e x p e r i m e n t a l b a s i s . A r u r a l a f f o r e s t a t i o n p r o j e c t i s a l s o underway t o i m p r o v e w o o d f u e l s u p p l i e s i n communal a r e a s . T h i s i s c o m p l e m e n t e d b y a woodstove d e m o n s t r a t i o n p r o j e c t which i s aimed a t promoting woodfuel c o n s e r v a t i o n . A t t h e t i m e t h e p r o j e c t began, a b o u t e i g h t such f u e l - e f f i c i e n t woodstoves had been c o n s t r u c t e d a t v a r i o u s d i s t r i c t s e r v i c e c e n t e r s i n t h e c o u n t r y .
Although r u r a l e n e r g y p r o j e c t s h a v e been u n d e r t a k e n t o a l l e v i a t e t h e s o - c a l l e d "energy c r i s i s " , such p r o j e c t s do n o t a l o n e c o n s t i t u t e an e n e r g y p o l i c y . The program h a s o f t e n l a c k e d c o h e r e n c e d u e t o a n i n a d e q u a t e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e a l i t i e s i n r u r a l Z i m b a b w e , a n d t h e s u b s e q u e n t r o l e o f e n e r g y f o r r u r a l s u b s i s t e n c e a n d development. As a r e s u l t , p r o j e c t s h a v e been o f t e n piecemeal a n d h a v e f o c u s e d s o l e l y on o n e t e c h n i c a l d i m e n s i o n o f a p r o b l e m w h i l e i g n o r i n g t h e l a r g e r s o c i a l c o n t e x t i n w h i c h t h a t problem h a s o c c u r e d . Furthermore, c e r t a i n major e n e r g y n e e d s h a v e o f t e n b e e n n e g l e c t e d , w h i l e o t h e r m i n o r o n e s r e c e i v e d a g r e a t d e a l of a t t e n t i o n .
I n o r d e r t o r e c o n c i l e t h e Government's e n e r g y and r u r a l development g o a l s , a comprehensive u n d e r s t a n d i n g of t h e r u r a l socio- economic system was r e q u i r e d t o d i r e c t and p r i o r i t i z e p l a n n i n g e f f o r t s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e problem was e x a c e r b a t e d by t h e p l a n n i n g a p p r o a c h e s commonly u t i l i z e d i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . H e r e , we w i l l b r i e f l y e x a m i n e t h e s e b e f o r e p r e s e n t i n g o u r a l t e r n a t i v e approach f o r r u r a l e n e r g y a n a l y s i s i n Zimbabwe.
3 . APPROACHES TO ENERGY PLANNING I N DEVELOPING COUNTRIES I n r e c e n t y e a r s , s e v e r a l a p p r o a c h e s t o e n e r g y p l a n n i n g i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s h a v e emerged. There a r e two common t y p e s o f m o d e l s w h i c h a r e a p p l i e d t o e n e r g y p l a n n i n g a t t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l : reduced- form model S and end- use models.
Each o f t h e s e h a s i t s s t r e n g t h s a n d w e a k n e s s e s when a p p l i e d t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e s e two g e n e r i c models, a l a r g e number of s t u d i e s h a v e been u n d e r t a k e n of t h e r u r a l e n e r g y p r o b l e m . I n i t i a l l y , t h e s e a r o s e s o l e 1 y w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o fuelwood r e q u i r e m e n t s , b u t h a v e r e c e n t l y become more complex and i n v o l v e d . These approaches a r e f r e q u e n t l y
l i n k e d t o energy p o l i c y i n i t i a t i v e s .
I n t h i s s e c t i o n , we b r i e f l y d e s c r i b e t h e s e a p p r o a c h e s t o t h e e n e r g y q u e s t i o n i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . IJe w i l l move from a d i s c u s s i o n o f r e d u c e d form m o d e l s t o a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f e n d - u s e m o d e l s , paying p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o t h e end- use model used i n t h e ZEAP p r o j e c t . However, i t i s o u r argument t h a t no m a t t e r how r e f i n e d o n e o f t h e s e m o d e l s i s , i t s t i l l f a 1 1s s h o r t o f p r o v i d i n g s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n t o o u t l i n e a s e t o f p o l i c i e s a n d p r o j e c t s t h a t c a n a d e q u a t e l y a d d r e s s c r u c i a l r u r a l e n e r g y problems. T h e r e f o r e , we s h a l l b r i e f l y
r e v i e w some o f t h e better studies o f the rural energy question, with an emphasis on the link between these studies and policy interventions. This w i l l set the stage for a presentation of the comprehensive approach used by the ZEAP team to tackle the rural energy problem in Zimbabwe.
ENERGY PLANNING MODELS
Most energy planning in d e v e l o p i n g countries has been based o n m o d e l s d i r e c t l y transplanted from those used in L7estern i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . L7hile t h i s s e e m s understandable t o a point, it h a s tended to focus planning efforts almost entirely on defining strategies to synchronize t h e g r o w t h o f c o m m e r c i a l f u e l s u p p l i e s t o g r o w t h i n consumption requirements. Planning for commercial fuel s u p p l i e s in most d e v e l o p i n g countries is far more advanced than even planning for agriculture, let alone overall rural energy requirements. Since data for these studies is easily accessible, they a r e r e l a t i v e l y simple to undertake and usually focus on the supply of a single fuel, say electricity or coal. There are few if any attempts, however, to examine the technical s u b s t i t u t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s b e t w e e n f u e l sources, so that the picture obtained is often static and simplistic. Planning and research tend to focus o n large capital-intensive projects, a s it is much simpler to d e a l with projects having a financial l y recoverable output than with projects addressing the broad and complex questions raised b y an examination o f rural energy d e v e l o p m e n t and subsistence requirements. When rural development is seen, as it i s in the Zimbabwean case, in the context o f growth with equity, the l e v e l and scope o f analysis must focus on the l o c a l o r micro-level. So far, Zimbabwe h a s planned for energy at the more macro level suggested above. For example, studies h a v e been undertaken for c o a l (Montan Consultants, 1983), liquid f u e l s (Snamprogetti, 1983), and electricity supply re-quirements (Merz-McClellan, 1981). Each has been undertaken in isolation not o n l y from the other, but a l s o from any coherent development context.
In general, energy planning makes use o f o n e of types of models: reduced-form models and end-use models
h37
W h i l e the Zimbabwean coal, liquid f u e l , and electricity studies a 1 l make use of rudimentary reduced-form models in the projections of fuel consumption, no end-use models had been applied (prior to 1982) in Zimbabwe. Both approaches have strengths and weaknesses, particularly when applied to rural energy issues. Here, we shall briefly discuss each as a backdrop to the outline of the work undertaken by the ZEAP team.
REDUCED FORPI MODELS
Reduced-form models are designed to forecast the demand for a specific energy source. The demand forecast Is then compared with existing energy supplies to determine future
supply requirements. The reduced-form approach, which has been promulgated by the World Bank, is essentially a supply- focused planning methodology. As such, the models contain few details o f the structural determinants of energy use.
They are based on economic principles and utilize econometric hods to explain the growth in demand for a particular fuel Income and price elasticities play a central role, as h i s t o r i c a l l y o b s e r v e d t r e n d s a r e used a s i n d e p e n d e n t variables to explain consumption by making use of regression analysis. As a result, growth in fuel consumption is seen to be a function of the growth in income, price, or possibly both. Growth parameters remain constant or change according to historically observed patterns.
The advantage of this approach is its simplicity: it is possible to obtain a forecast o f future energy supply requirements by applying simple statistics to readily available data. For certain purposes, this form of analysis is sufficient. However, two major limitations to gaining a thorough understanding o f a national energy system can be identified. First, although reduced-form model S can provide adequate forecasts in cases of discontinuities or weak historical trends, they can seriously over- or underestimate future energy consumption because they fail to a l l o w for structural change. Sensitivity analysis o f key parameters has been applied to go part way towards solving this problem, but the fundamental f l a w remains. Second, reduced-form models, as applied by most consultants, d o not account for t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e f u e l s . S u b s t i t u t i o n possibilities can be included using regression analysis, but the ability to refine the sophisticated trans-log models r e q u i r e d is n o t found i n m o s t c o n s u l t a n c y groups.
Frequently, weak historical trends are used to project demand for a single fuel. An example of these shortcomings can be found in the Zimbabwe Power Sector Development P l a n (Merz- McClellan, 1981). The lowest of the electricity consumption scenarios provided overestimated by nearly one hundred percent the actual consumption from 1980 to 1983. The techniques used did not account for both the severity of the world recession and the level of interfuel substitution and conservation that has occurred.
END-USE DEMAND MODELS
End-use model S, in contrast with reduced-form models, derive from an engineering approach to energy issues. In the specification of the models, an attempt is made to explicitly i n c o r p o r a t e a 1 1 t h e m a j o r s t r u c t u r a l and p h y s i c a l determinants of energy use. Energy users are aggregated into sectors which are then subdivided into those employing a specific end-use, that is a qualitatively discreet category of energy utilization, such as cooking, heating or lighting.
Technical coefficients, frequently derived from laboratory experiments, then represent the quantity of energy consumed for a specific purpose within each sector and subsector.
Projections are made based o n assumptions about end-use or appliance dissemination, technical efficiencies, economic or demographic growth, and fuel substitutions. Different scenarios incorporating these assumptions are used to project future supply requirements and thus to examine the impact of different policy interventions.
The real strength of the end-use approach is its ability to marshal together the detailed technical dimensions of the energy problem into a projection of supply requirements which a l l o w s planners to probe deeply into the operation of the energy system. It is able to account for substitution o f different fuels as well as changes in the consumption of any particular fuel. The model, therefore, is not as likely to b e used t o e x a m i n e t r e n d s w i t h i n t h e m a r k e t for o n e particular commercial fuel. It is also capable of including non-commercial fuels such as wood-fuels, which may not be b o u g h t and s o l d i n a f o r m a l market. By a d o p t i n g a comprehensive approach to fuel consumption, the end-use approach is better able to deal with the complexities of the energy system in developing countries.
The ZEAP team used an end-use model for the projection of future energy needs in Zimbabwe. It is called the LDC Energy Alternative Planning Program (LEAP) and was developed s p e c i f i c a l l y for u s e a s a n e n e r g y p l a n n i n g t o o l f o r developing countries. At the core o f the LEAP system is a n end-use based program designed to keep account o f a l l the energy used in the economy. The economy is first broken down into sectors and subsectors (e.g. rural household, low income). Then the energy used in the subsectors is divided into specific end-uses (e.g. cooking) and end-use devices (e.g. wood stoves or paraffin stoves). Using this system, it is p o s s i b l e t o f o l l o w n o t o n l y h o w e n e r g y i s u s e d , b u t a l s o , who within the economy uses it. The demand module, driven by demographic, economic, and agricultural models, then provides a f o r e c a s t o f f u t u r e c o n s u m p t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s . T h e s e estimates are then routed through programs tracing fuel supplies back to their initial source: hydro-electricity or barrels o f crude oil in the case of commercial fuels, or wood and biomass resources in the case of traditional fuels. For the latter, LEAP contains a detailed land-use model designed to keep track o f the basic resources necessary to meet woodfuel requirements. Both of the programs are then tied into a costing subprogram designed to keep track of the costs and benefits of meeting future energy requirements in local and foreign exchange terms. The result is a detailed projection o f future energy requirements which takes into account different supply options and policy alternatives and calculates their costs.
LEAP is an end-use model designed specifically to fit t h e u n i q u e e n e r g y p r o b l e m s e n c o u n t e r e d in d e v e l o p i n g countries. As such, it has several advantages. First, it can trace requirements for a l l fuels, both commercial and non-commercial. In countries like Zimbabwe where nearly forty percent of all energy comes from wood, this is crucial.
Second, its disaggregated approach makes it able to trace specific target groups of particular interest for equitable development. It is possible to identify not only who uses the energy in the economy but a l s o what they use it for.
This is especially important for working within a growth- with-equity framework. Third, since it is an end-use model, it can be used to identify specific energy needs for rural development. The user can test the impact o f new energy sources and identify the level of fuel shortages in critical sectors. Finally, the LEAP system provides a clear forum for investigation of the impacts of different energy policy interventions. For any fuel substitution, conservation, or supply-enhancement program, LEAP can trace its likely impacts on the national energy balance, measured in both energy and monetary terms.
The L E A P system's real strength lies in the fact that because it is a specialized end-use model, it places the emphasis squarely on understanding the workings o f the demand-side of the energy system. It forces the question of why energy-use patterns are the way they are. The ZEAP team a d o p t e d t h i s a p p r o a c h for t h e w o r k in Z i m b a b w e . T o understand what present and future energy requirements are, it is necessary to understand energy demand, since demand, not supply, is the driving force. However, having said this, we must acknowledge that at this stage we encounter the major weakness of the L E A P system, or rather the weakness o f a l l broad modelling approaches t o energy planning. Energy models built to represent a national energy system cannot contain sufficient detail to sufficiently explain all of the problems in a national energy system. No national-level model, for instance, can explain the reproduction o f the rural economy and the rural household. The LEAP system also assumes that all energy demand is currently being met. This is an assumption which has to be scrutinized. There are likely to b e certain basic energy needs which are, at present, going unsatisfied. For this reason, we attempted to distinguish between "unmet" demand, current "effective"
demand, and "desirable" demand.
Furthermore, while L E A P can describe the impact of a rural energy program such as a stove-dissemination project, it cannot indicate either which stove conforms to the preferences o f the fuel user or what is the best way to disseminate those stoves. To plan successfully for this and o t h e r r u r a l e n e r g y i n t e r v e n t i o n s r e q u i r e s a d e t a i l e d understanding of labor budgets, household preferences, access to capital and other important aspects of rural life. While LEAP can provide an analysis of the national implications of rural energy-use patterns, it must b e complemented by a comprehensive investigation into the rural household and its decision-making framework. For this reason, we now turn to a discussion of rural energy studies that have been undertaken to date.
RURAL ENERGY STUDIES
At their best, rural energy studies seek tounderstand the underlying processes determining rural energy consumption patterns. At their worst, they represent a half-hearted attempt to begin doing something about the oft-neglected rural energy system. Clearly, in order to understand the workings of the rural energy system w e l l enough to make e n e r g y p l a n s f o r g r o w t h w i t h e q u i t y , a d e t a i l e d , comprehensive study o f energy use in rural Zimbabwe was necessary. In this section, we briefly review a few of the rural energy studies which have been undertaken to date. We w i l l be paying special attention to the link between these studies and the formulation of plans, projects, and policies, s i n c e t h i s i s t h e a i m o f Z E A P : to g a i n s u f f i c i e n t understanding of Zimbabwe's energy system to be able to plan effectively for energy initiatives. This leads to a more detailed presentation of the efforts undertaken by the ZEAP t e a m i n c o m i n g t o g r i p s w i t h Zimbabwe's r u r a l e n e r g y problems.
Most rural energy studies can be classified according to the matrix in Table I-l. The three most commonly used substantive frameworks are portrayed along the horizontal axis. Rural energy studies have tended to evolve from one of these three perspectives: wood/supply demand studies; energy supply/demand studies: and energy ecosystem studies. Simply stated, wood supply/demand studies focus on the supply of and demand for fuelwood and poles. These are the most limited of the studies as they concentrate o n a single fuel. Energy supply/demand studies enlarge the scope of investigation to include all other fuels used in the rural sector but usually f a l l short o f including animate sources of energy. Energy ecosystem studies view the rural energy from an ecosystem approach, attempting to quantify all energy flows (including animate energy) and to establish an energy equilibrium.
TABLE 1-1 CLASSIFICATION MATRIX FOR RURAL ENERGY STUDIES
Wood Energy Energy
~ u p p l y / ~ e m a n d Supply/ ema and Ecosystem
...
Household/ Fleuretet a1 Beijer (Oleche) Briscoe
Village Tanzania, 1978 Kenya, 1982 Bangladesh, 1979 Multiple Brokenshaet a1 Beijer (Johnson) Astra (Reddy et al) Village Kenya, 1980 Kenya, 1982 India, 1980
~egional/ FAO (Openshaw) Beijer (Hosier) Revelle National Tanzania, 1978 Kenya, 1985 India, 1976
~egional/ Whitsun
National Zimbabwe, 1981
...
Each o f t h e s e a p p r o a c h e s h a s b e e n a p p l i e d a t a s i n g l e h o u s e h o l d o r v i l l a g e , m u l t i - v i l l a g e o r r e g i o n a l o r n a t i o n a l
l e v e l d u r i n g t h e p a s t few y e a r s . Each h a s b e e n u s e d a s t h e b a s i s f o r e n e r g y p r o j e c t s a n d p o l i c y p l a n n i n g on numerous o c c a s i o n s . I n t h e a p p r o p r i a t e l o c a t i o n on t h e m a t r i x i s w r i t t e n t h e name o f a n o r g a n i z a t i o n , c o u n t r y , a n d r e f e r e n c e d e t a i l i n g some o f t h e f o r m a t i v e work done i n t h e s u b s t a n t i v e a r e a s . Each w i l l b e d i s c u s s e d i n t u r n t o g i v e a f e e l f o r t h e s t a t e o f r u r a l e n e r g y p l a n n i n g r e s e a r c h a s i t h a s b e e n u n d e r t a k e n t o d a t e .
The f i r s t c a t e g o r y o f s t u d i e s f o c u s e s s o l e l y o n o n e r u r a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e
-
wood. The u s e o f r e d u c e d - f o r m m o d e l s p r o v i d e s a p r o j e c t i o n , w h i c h may o r may n o t b e b a s e d on v a l i d a s s u m p t i o n s . S u p p l y t a r g e t s and p l a n t a t i o n p r o j e c t s a r e p l a n n e d f o r , b u t l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n i s p a i d t o p r e c i s e l y how t o u t i l i z e o r d i s t r i b u t e t h e wood t h a t i s p r o d u c e d . I n o t h e r w o r d s , wood r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e e s t i m a t e d , b u t t h e workings o f t h e r u r a l system remain a mystery.As f a r a s e n e r g y s u p p l y / d e m a n d s t u d i e s a r e c o n c e r n e d , p e r h a p s t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e work t o d a t e h a s b e e n u n d e r t a k e n b y t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e i n Kenya. As p a r t o f t h e Kenyan Fuelwood P r o j e c t , t h e s t a f f o f t h e I n s t i t u t e s u p e r v i s e d a n a t i o n a l r u r a l h o u s e h o l d e n e r g y s u r v e y w h i c h e s t i m a t e d h o u s e h o l d c o n s u m p t i o n o f a l l f u e l s ( H o s i e r , 1 9 8 5 ) . T h e s e s u r v e y r e s u l t s h e l p e d b o t h t o b u i l d a n a t i o n a l e n d - u s e a c c o u n t i n g model and t o s t r a t i f y a s e t o f d e t a i l e d s i n g l e and m u l t i p l e v i l l a g e - l e v e l h o u s e h o l d energy - use s t u d i e s ( O l e c h e , 1982; Johnson 1982).
On t h e b a s i s o f t h e s e s t u d i e s , B e i j e r p r o p o s e d t o e s t a b l i s h a s e t o f r u r a l e n e r g y c e n t e r s a d o p t i n g a d e c e n t r a l i z e d , p a r t i c i p a t o r y approach t o t h e d i s s e m i n a t i o n of a g r o f o r e s t r y t e c h n i q u e s a n d f u e l - e f f i c i e n t s t o v e s i n h i g h p o t e n t i a l r e g i o n s o f t h e c o u n t r y . The r e s e a r c h r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e e n e r g y problem was most s e v e r e i n t h e h i g h p o t e n t i a l r e g i o n s a n d t h a t t o b e e f f e c t i v e a n y e f f o r t m u s t i n c o r p o r a t e t h e k n o w l e d g e , o p i n i o n s a n d p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e r u r a l p e o p l e . The s t u d y a p p e a r s t o h a v e worked we1 l . By c o u p l i n g n a t i o n a l s u r v e y s w i t h l o c a l s t u d i e s , t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e team was a b l e t o i d e n t i f y b o t h t h e l o c a t i o n of t h e m o s t s e v e r e p r o b l e m , a s w e l l a s t h e i n n e r w o r k i n g s o f t h e r u r a l e n e r g y system. Both t h e t e c h n i c a l and s o c i a l s i d e s of t h e p r o b l e m w e r e a n a l y z e d w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n t h a t a n i m a t e power was n o t i n c l u d e d . I n t h e f i r s t y e a r of o p e r a t i o n , t h e e n e r g y c e n t e r s a p p e a r e d t o b e h a v i n g a n i m p a c t o n t h e r u r a l e n e r g y problems i n Kakamega D i s t r i c t ,
The f o r m a t i v e work d o n e w i t h i n t h e e n e r g y - e c o s y s t e m paradigm h a s b e e n pursued by A.K.N. Reddy and h i s c o l l e a g u e s a t ASTRA i n B a n g a l o r e , I n d i a (Reddy e t a l . , 1980). The ASTRA r e s e a r c h t e a m p e r f o r m e d a s e r i e s o f c a r e f u l s u r v e y s and o b s e r v a t i o n s t o e s t a b l i s h a n e n e r g y f l o w b a l a n c e f o r a l l a c t i v i t i e s i n f i v e v i l l a g e s i n K a r n a t a k a . The s t u d y team t h e n i d e n t i f i e d s h o r t a g e s a n d b o t t l e n e c k s i n t h e e n e r g y s u p p l y s y s t e m . The p r o j e c t t e a m e v e n t u a l l y a d o p t e d a p a r t i c i p a t o r y approa.ch t o t h e d e s i g n o f t h e e n e r g y c e n t e r s t o
meet the supply requirements of the study communities.
Residents were asked to identify their most pressing energy needs, and fuel supply options were identified to fulfil these needs.
The ecosystem approach adopted by the ASTRA team h a s proved to be very useful. High quality data was derived and used in the ecosystem model to identify critical energy supply areas. The obvious shortcomings of their approach are twofold. First, while the technical aspects o f the energy system were very strong, very little attention was paid to the socio-economic aspects of the energy problem. A more detailed overlay of socio-economic data is needed to lend a thorough understanding of energy-use patterns to the study results. Critical household decisions cannot be understood without a better understanding of intra-household processes than can be achieved with an ecosystem model. Second, the energy center solutions proposed by the team were mostly t e c h n o l o g i c a l f i x e s r e q u i r i n g c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t and substitution of alternative fuels for traditional ones.
T h e s e s o l u t i o n s p r o v i d e d e n e r g y for d e v e l o p m e n t w i t h i n s u f f i c i e n t a t t e n t i o n b e i n g paid t o t h e c o n s t r a i n t s impinging o n household energy decisions. In this respect, t h e A S T R A e n e r g y c e n t e r s w e r e d e s i g n e d t o p r o v i d e development-oriented energy supplies, forsaking the tradi- tional, subsistence energy resources.
As part o f the ZEAP effort, a thorough study of the rural energy system from the energy demand/supply perspective was undertaken. The aim was to analyze the use of all fuels using methodologies suitable for household or village-level, multiple-site, and national studies. Of crucial importance to this analysis was the subsectoral disaggregation of the agrarian structure in order to pinpoint differences in resources, constraints, and opportunities influencing energy demand and supply patterns and subsectoral changes. W e therefore, turn to a discussion of Zimbabwe's agrarian system b e f o r e p r e s e n t i n g i n a m o r e d e t a i l e d m a n n e r t h e methodological approaches used in the work.
4 . ZIMBABWE'S RURAL STRUCTURE AND ENERGY SYSTEM
The analysis of the rural energy system in Zimbabwe by t h e Z E A P t e a m i n v o l v e d t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e e n e r g y accounting system at the national level, and the micro-level study of the structure and processes affecting energy supply and demand. The latter entailed clearlyidentifying the subsectors of the agrarian structure and characterizing these in terms of their economic, environmental, demographic, and production features. The units of investigationhad to be identified, as these vary by production units fromhouseholds to estates. Appropriate methods and approaches to the investigation had to be given special attention in order to fit the methodology to both the scale of observation and the level of detailed information required.
At present, rural Zimbabwe reflects an historical process of uneven development: a labor-reserve economy was created to provide a constant source of cheap labor to mines, industries, and large-scale commercial farms. The State acted to limit access to capital and new technologies to the white minority. As a result, patterns of energy utilization vary t r e m e n d o u s l y between different rural subsectors.
the Government's growth-with-equity strategy is an attempt to reverse this historical trend.
In attempting to conceptualize Zimbabwe's rural energy system, we identified six subsectors. Each subsector plays a particular role in the rural economy, exhibits markedly different energy supply and demand characteristics, and presents a different set o f potential energy p o l i c y initiatives. These subsectors are:
(1) Large-Scale Commercial Farms (LCSF);
(2) State Farms;
(3) Small-scale Commercial Farms (SSCF);
(4) Communal Areas;
(5) Resettlement Areas; and
(6) Rural Growth Points and Service Centers.
For the ZEAP analysis, the first two subsectorswere treated as purely agricultural production units. Their domestic energy requirements were handled separately. The three remaining agricultural subsectors were considered as individual household units for domestic, agricultural, and non-agricul tural activities within the context of the overal l household economy. Growth points and service centerswere examined as small urban entities servicing the other rural subsectors.
LARGE- SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMS
The large-scale commercial farm sector constitutes approximately 4,500 highly mechanized and relatively energy intensive farms. Because of the large input of energy onto these farms, outputs are also high. The LCSF subsector has a n e n e r g y p r o f i l e s i m i l a r t o f a r m i n g i n t h e m o r e industrialized countries of the world, with a very important difference in its reliance on large amounts of cheap labor.
(There are presently over 250,000 LSCF workers). Future energy utilization in this subsector is uncertain for a number of reasons. Firstly, as workers' wages rise, farmers will attempt to displace labor with machines, creating a substitution of human for fossil fuel energy. Secondly, political pressures to reduce the size of this subsector are high due to its virtual monopolization of the country's most p r o d u c t i v e land. So, a l t h o u g h long-term predictions regarding this subsector can be no more than speculation, in the short term it does seem likely that the LSCF subsector will remain a major destination for the flow of rural energy resources, primarily in the form of diesel, coal, agro-
chemicals and electricity.
STATE FARMS
State farms h a v e a similar energy profile to the LSCF subsector. Although o n a national s c a l e the importance o f this subsector is currently minimal, the state farm subsector is expected to g r o w rapidly. A l l state farms are irrigated and use large quantities of d i e s e l , agro-chemicals and electricity. In the future, it seems reasonable to assume that an increased amount of energy will have to flow to this subsector.
SMALL-SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMS
T h e s m a l l s c a l e c o m m e r c i a l f a r m s u b s e c t o r ( S S C F ) represents an attempt by former governments to create a small African agrarian capitalist class. The plan failed as many SSCF remained undercapitalized and absentee landlords became common. Although these farms primarily rely on human energy, there has been some diffusion of tractors and agro-chemicals.
Nationally, the SSCF subsector is not an important consumer of energy.
COMMUNAL AREAS
T h e communal areas, where the b u l k o f the population live, face numerous energy problems. Firstly, because of the h i s t o r i c a l r o l e a s a l a b o r r e s e r v e , t h e s e a r e a s a r e increasingly reliant on off-farm sources of income simply to survive. Access to agro-chemicals
-
which are very important due to the poor q u a l i t y land in many communal areas-
islimited b y monetary constraints, and the droughts h a v e s e v e r e l y reduced access t o draught power for agricultural work and manure for fertilization. An insufficient on-farm production capability for many communal farmers, exacerbated by difficulties in obtaining work in the towns, means that many communal area families a r e n o w facing a crisis o f reproduction. C l e a r l y there must b e adequate energy for agricultural subsistence before overall economic development in the communal areas can occur. In many communal areas, obtaining adequate quantities o f wood for cooking has a l s o become a problem. Along with increasing the labor time for wood gathering, money is now sometimes required to obtain this critical household energy source. The commodification o f wood could direct the f l o w o f this resource to the wealthier communal area households. This c o u l d directly counter the Government's growth-with-equity strategy. On the other hand, the commodification o f wood could increase the incentive to g r o w trees. The f u l l implications o f this transition, which is in the formative stages i n Zimbabwe, must be clearly thought through by policy makers.
O v e r a l l , t h e c o m m u n a l a r e a s w i l l r e m a i n a m a j o r c h a l lenge to planners adhering to a growth-with-equity
s t r a t e g y . The c o m b i n a t i o n o f a p o o r r e s o u r c e b a s e and i n c r e a s i n g l y l i m i t e d o f f - f a r m income o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l l mean t h a t communal a r e a f a m i l i e s w i l l h a v e t r o u b l e o b t a i n i n g new t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d s e c u r i n g e v e n t h e m o s t e s s e n t i a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s .
RESETTLEMENT AREAS
To d a t e , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 5 , 0 0 0 - 4 0 , 0 0 0 f a m i l i e s h a v e b e e n r e s e t t l e d . Most f a m i l i e s h a v e b e e n r e s e t t l e d o n a n i n d i v i d u a l b a s i s (model A), where each f a m i l y i s g i v e n f i v e h e c t a r e s o f a r a b l e l a n d a n d a d e s i g n a t e d g r a z i n g a r e a . Because many of t h e r e s e t t l e d f a m i l i e s were l a n d l e s s , p o o r , o r r e f u g e e s , t h e o v e r a l l a c c e s s t o d r a u g h t power and c a p i t a l i n t h i s s e c t o r i s low. A l s o , b e c a u s e t h e government a c q u i r e s l a n d on a w i l l i n g - s e l l e r , w i l l i n g - b u y e r b a s i s , m o s t o f t h e schemes a r e l o c a t e d on l a n d s which a r e m a r g i n a l f o r d r y - l a n d m a i z e p r o d u c t i o n . Hence, many o f t h e s e a r e a s w i l l r e q u i r e l a r g e i n p u t s o f a g r o - c h e m i c a l s i n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e h i g h y i e l d s . Some r e s e t t l e m e n t schemes h a v e been o r g a n i z e d on a c o - o p e r a t i v e b a s i s ( m o d e l B ) . B e c a u s e o f t h e i r a b i l i t y t o p o o l s c a r c e f a m i l y r e s o u r c e s , model B f a r m s h a v e a g r e a t e r a b i l i t y t o mechanize p a r t i c u l a r components o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s . F u r t h e r m o r e , where t r a c t o r s s u b s t i t u t e f o r d r a u g h t p o w e r , a much h i g h e r i n t e n s i t y o f l a n d u s e i s p o s s i b l e . I n t h e f u t u r e , t h e r e i s t h e l i k e l i h o o d t h a t model B farms w i l l become more e n e r g y a n d l a n d - i n t e n s i v e . T h i s w i l l r e q u i r e a d d i t i o n a l f l o w s o f e n e r g y t o t h e c o - o p e r a t i v e f a r m s w h i l e h e l p i n g t o s a v e l a n d . E x p a n s i o n o f model A s c h e m e s w i l l r e q u i r e more l a n d b u t l e s s energy. P r e s e n t l y , t h e r e d o e s n o t a p p e a r t o b e a f u e l w o o d s h o r t a g e o n r e s e t t l e m e n t s c h e m e s . However, e a r l y r e p o r t s s u g g e s t t h a t m a s s i v e t r e e c u t t i n g i s o c c u r r i n g w i t h o u t r e p l a n t i n g . I f t h i s p a t t e r n i s a l l o w e d t o c o n t i n u e u n a b a t e d , s e v e r e wood s c a r c i t i e s i n t h e s e a r e a s w i l l d e v e l o p r a p i d l y .
RURAL GROWTH POINTS AND SERVICE CENTERS
The r u r a l growth p o i n t s and s e r v i c e c e n t e r s a r e a major component o f t h e G o v e r n m e n t ' s g r o w t h - w i t h - e q u i t y s t r a t e g y . The a r e a s d e s i g n a t e d f o r d e v e l o p m e n t a r e l i k e l y t o become c e n t e r s f o r r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n m i g r a t i o n a s w e l l a s c e n t e r s of demand f o r b o t h r u r a l - b a s e d e n e r g y s o u r c e s and s u p p l i e s o f commercial energy. However, t h e r e i s t h e d a n g e r t h a t i f t h e p l a n n i n g o f t h e s e r u r a l t o w n s d o e s n o t a d e q u a t e l y a d d r e s s f u t u r e e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s , c o m p e t i t i o n between t h e town and a d j a c e n t farming communities w i l l d e v e l o p . There i s a l r e a d y some i n d i c a t i o n t h a t s c a r c e wood from t h e communal s u b s e c t o r i s b e i n g s e n t t o l o c a l t o w n s w h e r e a more l u c r a t i v e m a r k e t e x i s t s . T h e r e i s a l s o t h e d a n g e r t h a t t h e s e r u r a l g r o w t h p o i n t s a n d s e r v i c e c e n t e r s w i l l s e r v e o n l y t h e w e a l t h i e r r u r a l i n h a b i t a n t s , a s h a s been t h e c a s e i n o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s w i t h p l a n s f o r s p a t i a l e c o n o m i c i n t e g r a t i o n ( e . g . Kenya, V e n e z u e l a ) . T h i s w o u l d i n t e n s i f y t h e h i s t o r i c a l
process of uneven development at a local level, for example, within communal areas.
These six subsectors serve as the structural basis for the ZEAP rural energy analysis. We feel that it is important to understand the flows of energy between and within these subsectors. Furthermore, we stress the need to understand that within each subsector are individual families, farming operations, commercial and industrial enterprises which exhibit varying capabilities for utilizing new energy sources as well as larger quantities of existing types of energy. We a l s o believe that although conservation and increased efficiency are important, in the underdeveloped areas of Zimbabwe the emphasis must b e o n increasing the supply o f energy to these areas. If the growth-with-equity strategy is to be successful, it is imperative that energy be supplied to the poorest of rural households, first for subsistence and then for developmental purposes.
5. ZEAP RURAL ENERGY STUDIES
Having presented the original conception of Zimbabwe's rural structure held by the ZEAP team, we now turn to the studies and methodologies that the ZEAP team utilized i n addressing the rural energy system in Zimbabwe. Returning to the classification matrix presented in Table I-l, the ZEAP team undertook an energy supply-demand study at the household or v i l lage, multiple-vil lage and national l e v e l S. These studies focused o n a detailed specification o f end-use energy consumption as well as the socio-economic determinants o f o v e r a l l resource utilization. Energy consumption was defined broadly to include human energy, in the form of labor budgets, and animal energy, in the form o f draught power.
The layout of these studies is presented in Table 1 - 2 b y producing the energy supply/demand column of Table I-l.
At the village level, the ZEAP team conducted a series o f household observation studies. For these studies, the labor budget, appliance utilization, wood consumption, and agricultural practices of fifteen household in different parts of the country were observed and detailed for one week at four times during the course o f a year. The four site visits corresponded to the planting ,weeding,harvesting and dry seasons. The primary objective of these household observations was to compile detailed labor budgets of households facing varying physical and economic resource constraints. This study had the aim of allowing us to better understand the seasonal dimensions of labor utilization, i m p o r t a n t a t t h e p r o j e c t f o r m u l a t i o n stage. T h e s e observations a l s o provided us with information on cooking practices, eff iciencies, and consumption of wood for other uses such as construction. The relationships between agricultural practices, agricultural inputs, and o v e r a l l productivity were also examined.
Table 1-2 ZEAP PROJECT STUDIES
Scale of Energy ~ u p p l y / ~ e m a n d Observation Studies
Household/Village Observation Studies
Multi-Village Comprehensive Rural Survey
National National Household Energy Survey
A t t h e m u l t i p l e - v i l l a g e l e v e l , w e c o n d u c t e d a comprehensive survey o f approximately 800 households in different parts o f the country. The stratification was d e s i g n e d t o i n c l u d e c o m m u n a l a r e a f a r m s , s m a l l - s c a l e commercial farms, and resettlement area farms in the various natural regions. Through this it was hoped that information would b e obtained o n the relationship between the socio- economic status o f households and their utilization and access to various energy resources. Variations by ecological zone were also assessed. The primary objective of the survey was to get an idea of the constraints that people in the rural areas face in their attempt to secure adequate levels of food, clothing, water, energy, health and shelter. For those families who manage to fulfil their basic needs and are able to accumulate some capital, we were interested in f i n d i n g o u t w h a t e n a b l e s t h e m t o g e n e r a t e a s u r p l u s . Ultimately, it is local surplus-generation and local reinvestment which leads to rural development.
Finally, at the national l e v e l , the ZEAP team worked with the Central Statistical Office (CSO) to administer a national energy survey in rural and urban areas alike. The aim of the survey was to provide national estimates of household energy consumption to be used in the LEAP end-use demand model for the urban and rural household subsectors.
Through the overlapping coverage o f survey results we expected t o g a t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n r a n g i n g f r o m t h e very detailed, but inferentially weak, to the less detailed, but inferentially strong. Each set of results, it was hoped, would serve to substantiate the others.
These studies provide relatively complete coverage of those subsectors examined as household production units. But for the Large-Scale Commercial Farms, State Farms and Growth/Service Centers, additional research was required.
For the first two, existing data sources were used to examine energy requirements o f the farming units. The National Household Energy Survey included farm workers from both of these subsectors. For the Growth and Service Centers, existing data, survey results and plans were used to provide a first impression of energy requirements. Then a more detailed examination was made of the supply options available for supplying these needs for rural or small-scale urban industrial growth. Using this inter-related set of analyses,
we expected to obtain a complete picture of the energy requirements of the rural subsectors identified in Table 1-2.
Due to our adopted end-use approach, we h a v e focused this discussion on our studies of the demand-side of the energy equation. However, the ZEAP team a l s o examined supply. A major challenge was the estimation of supplies of woody biomass throughout the country. This entailed mapping vegetation types and estimating standing volume through a n extensive review of previous ecological work and mensuration exercises o f existing tree cover. In addition to this, o f course, available information on commercial fuel supplies was assembled and summarized, but since this was perhaps the simplest part o f the exercise to undertake and is relevant not only to the rural system but to the entire economy, further discussion of this subject w i l l be left to other papers in the volume.
6. RURAL ENERGY POLICY ISSUES
Through these exercises a large body of information was assembled which should lead to a more complete understanding of Zimbabwe's rural energy system. In the pages of the papers that follow, we attempt to pinpoint particular problems within the system which demand action as well as identifying which approaches to these problems stand the greatest chance of success. This understanding of the rural energy system can then b e used to forge a set o f unified programs for rural energy development in Zimbabwe.
Our assessment o f the rural energy system in this introductory paper is already sufficient to indicate at least four critical areas which require policy attention. These are:
SHORTAGE OF FUEL FOR DOMESTIC ENERGY
This is the problem area which demonstrates perhaps most clearly the problem of energy for basic human needs. Without satisfactory wood supplies, rural households cannot fulfil t h e i r c o o k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s . T h e p r o b l e m i s f u r t h e r exacerbated by the diffusion of inefficient stoves and the indiscriminate cutting of wood to meet the demands of the urban market. Both the Energy Department and Forestry Commission have begun work in this area, but the severity of the problem requires a redoubling of efforts.
ENERGY INPUTS INTO AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Due both to the drought and to the low l e v e l o f capital accumulation in most communal farming areas there is a need to increase energy-related inputs into agriculture. Draught power is in particularly short supply following the drought o f r e c e n t years. F e r t i l i z e r s and p e s t i c i d e s a r e t o o expensive to experience broad dissemination throughout many
conmunal areas. If small-scale farming in Zimbabwe is to remain viable, development energy for agriculture is required to raise production, output and incomes.
ENERGY FOR RESETTLEMENT
To date, the resettlement effort has been primarily Model A (individual farming). However, Model B (co-operative farming) offers poor peasants opportunities to utilize more sophisticated energy resources and agricultural inputs to obtain higher yields. Co-operative farming also allows for a more intensive use of land. If the present pattern of individual farming on marginal land continues, the potential for significant changes in agricultural inputs and practices will be reduced.
ENERGY SUPPLIES FOR RURAL INDUSTRIES
If growth and service centers are to pose viable, attractive alternatives to the major urban areas, energy supplies are required to spur economic growth and increase employment opportunities. Energy i s d e s p e r a t e l y needed f o r the development of these areas. If the electricity grid cannot be extended to them, other supply sources will have to be made available or else the whole decentralization p01 icy will doubtless fall flat.
This presentation of perceived problems in the rural energy system is meant t o b e neither e x h a u s t i v e nor exclusive. Other energy needs will be addressed in the following papers which detail our comprehensive study of the r u r a l energy system. H o w e v e r , t h e adoption o f such a comprehensive approach is the only way to circumvent the pursuit of more piecemeal efforts. We would maintain that this approach is the singularly most appropriate one to adopt in planning for rural energy needs for growth-with-equity.
FOOTNOTES
(1) T h i s discussion d r a w s i m p l i c i t l y upon a s i m i l a r presentation in UNIDO (1982).
(2) In economic jargon, the reduced form of model is the simplest, most easily verifiable form of a series of simultaneous equations.
