Eurocon Consulting

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II.

Eurocon Consulting Reason: Post-results comment

Company sponsored research Not rated

A lacklustre end to 2019

 Utilisation set to increase in 2020

 Margin recovery rather than growth, short-term

 Share trades at EV/EBIT 15.2x for 2020e

Q4: Net sales -10% vs. ABGSCe and an unusual EBIT loss Eurocon reported net sales of SEK 65.3m (66.6), corresponding to a y-o- y decrease of 2%. The deviation from our numbers stems from a lower than expected utilisation rate and six fewer consultants. EBIT amounted to SEK -2.4m (5.2m), and was hurt by the low utilisation rate in

conjunction write-downs for three fixed price infrastructure projects. For FY 2019, net sales were SEK 261m (253m), of which SEK 30m were acquisition-related. Based on that, organic growth was -9% for the year;

this shows the tough market Eurocon faced in 2019, and particularly in H2. On a positive note, order intake increased at the end of the year and management sees q-o-q utilisation rate improvements over the next couple of quarters.

Negative revisions, likely focus on margin recovery We have decreased our sales assumptions by 7.9%-7.6% for 2020e- 2021e following the report. Even though we expect utilisation rates to increase throughout 2020, Eurocon faces tough comparable in H1. In addition, the coronavirus might have a negative effect on Eurocon’s customers, resulting in delayed investment decisions. The disappointing EBIT margin in Q4 and our negative sales revision also lead to lower assumed EBIT margins going forward. We decrease our EBIT margin assumptions by 1.3pp-1.2pp for ’20e-’21e, resulting in EBIT cuts of 25%- 20% for the same period. Overall, we think 2020 will be a year of margin recovery rather than growth.

EV/EBIT valuation above three-year average

On our revised estimates, Eurocon trades at an EV/EBIT of 15.2x for 2020, above its three-year average of 9.6x. Dividend capacity still looks solid, and we have assumed div. yields of 4.1%-6.2% for the coming three years. Eurocon proposed a dividend for 2019 of SEK 0.1 (0.35), which corresponds to a div. yield of ~2% on the current share price.

24/02/2020

Performance Equity Research - 25 February 2020 15:34 CET

SEKm 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Sales 253 261 263 278 292

EBITDA 28 18 28 34 36

EBITDA margin (%) 11.3 6.8 10.8 12.2 12.5

EBIT adj 25 5 15 21 23

EBIT adj margin (%) 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0

Pretax profit 31 6 15 21 23

EPS rep 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41

EPS adj 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41

Sales growth (%) 5.8 3.3 0.6 6.0 5.0

EPS growth (%) 18.8 -80.3 131.1 34.4 12.5

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Lead analyst: Stefan Knutsson Victor Forssell

Estimate changes (%)

2020e 2021e 2022e

Sales -7.9% -7.6% 0.0%

EBIT (rep) -24.9% -20.6% 0.0%

EPS (rep) -25.9% -21.5% 0.0%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

Share price (SEK) 4.9

Commercial Services & Supplies, Sweden EUROC.TE/EURO SS

MCap (SEKm) 207

MCap (EURm) 19.6

Net debt (EURm) 2

No. of shares (m) 42.7

Free float (%) 90.0

Av. daily volume (k) 0.8

Next event Q1 report: 07 May

80 90 100 110 120 130 140

F e b 1 7 A p r 1 7 Ju n 1 7 A u g 1 7 O c t 1 7 D e c 17 F e b 1 8 A p r 1 8 Ju n 1 8 A u g 1 8 O c t 1 8 D e c 18 F e b 1 9 A p r 1 9 Ju n 1 9 A u g 1 9 O c t 1 9 D e c 19

Eurocon Consulting OMX ST H PI

1m 3m 12m

Absolute (%) -10.2 -4.9 -28.3

OMX STH PI (%) -0.8 6.6 17.2

Source: FactSet

2020e 2021e 2022e

P/E (x) 17.8 13.3 11.8

P/E adj (x) 17.8 13.3 11.8

P/BVPS (x) 2.29 2.13 1.99

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 6.7 6.1

EV/EBIT adj (x) 15.2 11.0 9.5

EV/sales (x) 0.90 0.82 0.76

ROE adj (%) 13.4 16.6 17.4

Dividend yield (%) 4.1 5.2 6.2

FCF yield (%) 7.0 12.8 12.8

Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 1.8 7.5 7.5

Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.7 0.4 0.2

Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0.2 -0.5 -0.7

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 2 Geographical breakdown, sales, SEKm

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Number of full-time employees

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

EPS estimate changes, 2021e, SEK

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet

Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Opportunities

Eurocon has a solid financial position with stable cash flows. This positions Eurocon for further acquisitions, which in turn will generate most of the firm’s future growth.

Together with its consultancy offering, Eurocon also provides customers with its developed software Sitebase.

The software scales well with increased volumes and can hence strengthen the company’s operating margins.

Risks

The markets that Eurocon is exposed to are cyclical markets such as mining and forestry, and hence, Eurocon is dependent on investments in these markets. As other consulting businesses are experiencing as well, hiring consultants is hard, and especially within engineering. As the company grows, keeping competent and experienced employees is essential.

245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295

2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Sales

253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19

Sales

0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58

ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean

0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58

ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean

-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT

Company description

Eurocon Consulting, a consulting service company founded in 1990, provides the forestry, energy, mining, and chemistry markets with engineering services. The offering covers the whole life cycle of customer investment, from preliminary study to implementation, deployment and maintenance. The customers are almost exclusively major industrial companies and municipalities. The company’s main vision is to be the obvious choice for customers and employees who want to build and optimize for a

sustainable future.

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 3 Q4 deviations, lower utilisation and write-downs hurt margins

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Forecast changes

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data SEKm

P&L Q4'18 Q4'19 Q4'19e Diff vs. ABGSC

Net sales 66.6 65.3 72.3 -10%

Other income 0.8 0.3 0.3 19%

Purchases of services and materials -6.6 -7.0 -7.9 -12%

Personnel costs -46.1 -51.1 -52.1 -2%

Other external costs -7.8 -7.0 -6.1 16%

-of which non-recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 -

EBITDA 6.1 0.5 6.4 -93%

Depreciations and amortizations -0.9 -2.8 -3.2 -13%

EBIT 5.2 (2.4) 3.2 -174%

Adj. EBIT 5.2 (2.4) 3.2 -174%

Net Financials 0.6 0.7 -0.3 -337%

Profit before tax 5.7 (1.7) 2.9 -158%

Tax -1.4 0.2 -0.6 -135%

Net incom e 4.3 (1.4) 2.2 -164%

Grow th

Sales grow th y-o-y -5.6% -2.0% 8.5% -10.6 pp

Sales grow th q-o-q 38.1% 23.4% 36.8% -13.3 pp

Adj. EBIT grow th -16.6% -145.7% -38.6% -107.1 pp

Margins

Adj. EBITDA margin 9.2% 0.7% 8.9% -8.2 pp

Adj. EBIT margin 7.8% -3.6% 4.4% -8.0 pp

SEKm Old forecast New forecast Change

P&L 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e

Net sales 285.3 301.4 262.7 278.4 292.4 -7.9% -7.6%

Personnel costs -200.7 -208.7 -185.9 -191.1 -196.9 -7.4% -8.4%

Other Opex -52.0 -54.4 -49.2 -54.4 -60.1 -5.4% 0.0%

-of which non-recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -

D&A -13.0 -13.1 -13.0 -13.1 -13.1 0.0% 0.0%

Adj. EBIT 20.6 26.1 15.5 20.8 23.4 -24.9% -20.6%

Adj. EBIT margin 7.2% 8.7% 5.9% 7.5% 8.0% -1.3 pp -1.2 pp

Net Financials -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0% 0.0%

Profit before tax 20.5 26.0 15.4 20.7 23.3 -25.0% -20.6%

Tax -4.5 -5.7 -3.4 -4.5 -5.1 -25.0% -20.6% -

Net incom e 16.0 20.3 12.0 16.1 18.1 -25.0% -20.6%

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 4 Quarterly and yearly overview

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Sales growth y-o-y, and growth target

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

EBIT margin, and margin target

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data SEKm

P&L Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Net sales 74.4 68.6 52.9 65.3 68.3 65.7 54.6 74.1 236.5 252.9 261.2 262.7 278.4 292.4

Other income 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0

Purchases of services and materials -7.9 -6.1 -6.5 -7.0 -6.3 -5.4 -5.3 -6.8 -21.0 -19.6 -27.6 -23.7 -24.6 -25.7 Personnel costs -51.4 -51.1 -38.3 -51.1 -49.4 -49.3 -37.4 -49.8 -158.3 -174.0 -191.9 -185.9 -191.1 -196.9

Other external costs -7.4 -5.3 -4.9 -7.0 -7.2 -4.8 -5.7 -7.8 -28.9 -31.3 -24.7 -25.5 -29.9 -34.4

-of which non-recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBITDA 7.8 6.2 3.4 0.5 5.6 6.5 6.4 10.0 30.9 28.5 17.8 28.5 33.8 36.4

Depreciations and amortizations -3.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.8 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -3.7 -12.6 -13.0 -13.1 -13.1

EBIT 4.7 2.8 0.1 -2.4 2.4 3.2 3.2 6.7 27.8 24.8 5.2 15.5 20.8 23.4

Adj. EBIT 4.7 2.8 0.1 -2.4 2.4 3.2 3.2 6.7 25.8 24.8 5.2 15.5 20.8 23.4

Net Financials -0.1 0.5 0.0 0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 6.5 1.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Profit before tax 4.7 3.3 0.1 -1.7 2.1 2.9 2.9 6.4 28.0 31.3 6.4 15.4 20.7 23.3

Tax -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.4 -6.5 -5.8 -1.3 -3.4 -4.5 -5.1

Net incom e 3.8 2.7 0.0 -1.4 1.6 2.3 2.2 5.0 21.5 25.5 5.0 12.0 16.1 18.1

Grow th

Sales grow th y-o-y 5.5% 1.6% 9.6% -2.0% -8.2% -4.2% 3.2% 13.5% 10.4% 7.0% 3.3% 0.6% 6.0% 5.0%

Sales grow th q-o-q 11.7% -7.8% -22.9% 23.4% 4.7% -3.9% -17.0% 35.8%

Adj. EBIT grow th -52.7% -59.5% -97.0% ##### -49.0% 14.2% ##### ##### 24.8% -3.8% -78.9% ##### 34.2% 12.5%

Margins

Adj. EBITDA margin 10.5% 9.0% 6.3% 0.7% 8.3% 9.8% 11.7% 13.4% 12.2% 11.3% 6.8% 10.8% 12.2% 12.5%

Adj. EBIT margin 6.3% 4.1% 0.2% -3.6% 3.5% 4.9% 5.8% 9.1% 10.9% 9.8% 2.0% 5.9% 7.5% 8.0%

14% 14%

8%

10%

7%

3%

1%

6%

5%

10%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Growth y-o-y Growth target

7.1%

7.9%

9.6%

11.7%

9.8%

5.9%

7.5%

8.0%

10%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

EBIT margin EBIT margin target

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 5

Valuation

EV/Sales (x) fwd. 12m (before Q4 revisions)

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

EV/EBIT (x) fwd. 12m (before Q4 revisions)

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

0.8

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Eurocon EV/S fwd 12m Average

11.2

6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0

Eurocon EV/EBIT fwd 12m Average

Peer table

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Com pany Market 3-year CAGR ('19-'22e)

cap (SEKm ) 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e Sales EBITDA EBIT

Addnode 6,196 21% 6% 5% 1.6 1.5 1.5 14.1 13.1 12.1 25.6 22.5 17.7 28.2 24.8 24.5 10% 10% 12% 7.1%

Data Respons 3,780 17% 5% na 1.7 1.6 na 12.4 11.8 na 16.7 15.8 na 22.9 20.9 na na na na na

eWork Group 1,362 11% 8% 6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.1 9.0 8.5 12.5 10.8 10.0 14.1 12.0 11.0 8% 14% 17% 1.0%

HiQ 2,747 3% 5% 4% 1.3 1.3 1.2 9.3 8.8 8.1 11.1 10.5 9.5 15.5 14.6 13.3 4% na 10% 12.4%

Know it 3,539 7% 6% 1% 1.0 0.9 0.9 8.2 7.6 7.7 10.0 9.2 9.2 13.4 12.2 12.3 5% 6% 7% 10.1%

Rejlers 2,242 14% 4% na 1.0 0.9 na 8.3 7.6 na 15.2 13.0 na 17.3 14.8 na na na na na

Sem con 1,320 6% 4% 2% 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.4 5.7 5.4 8.4 7.3 6.8 11.1 9.4 8.6 4% 8% 10% 8.9%

Sw eco 41,323 9% 5% 3% 2.0 1.9 1.9 15.9 15.0 14.6 21.3 20.0 19.3 25.2 23.6 22.4 5% 3% 7% 9.7%

Tieto 32,677 73% 2% 2% 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.6 6.1 6.1 8.7 8.1 7.7 11.9 11.0 10.1 22% 31% 27% 12.5%

ÅF 25,741 9% 4% 3% 1.5 1.4 1.4 11.8 11.0 10.4 16.4 14.9 14.1 17.7 16.2 14.5 6% 14% 10% 9.5%

Average 12,093 17% 5% 3% 1.2 1.1 1.1 10.3 9.6 9.1 14.6 13.2 11.8 21.7 19.2 17.7 8% 12% 13% 8.9%

Median 3,659 10% 5% 3% 1.2 1.1 1.1 9.7 8.9 8.3 13.9 11.9 9.7 22.9 20.9 17.7 5% 10% 10% 9.6%

Eurocon (ABGSCe) 212 1% 6% 5% 0.9 0.8 0.8 8.3 6.7 6.1 15.2 11.0 9.5 17.8 13.3 11.8 3% 6% -6% 5.1%

Eurocon prem ium /discount (+/-) -94% 23% 57% -25% -29% -31% -15% -24% -26% 10% -8% -2% -22% -36% -33% -41% -43% -156% -47%

Key Peers

Rejlers 2,242 14% 4% na 1.0 0.9 na 8.3 7.6 na 15.2 13.0 na 17.3 14.8 na na na na na

Sem con 1,320 6% 4% 2% 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.4 5.7 5.4 8.4 7.3 6.8 11.1 9.4 8.6 4% 8% 10% 8.9%

Sw eco 41,323 9% 5% 3% 2.0 1.9 1.9 15.9 15.0 14.6 21.3 20.0 19.3 25.2 23.6 22.4 5% 3% 7% 9.7%

ÅF 25,741 9% 4% 3% 1.5 1.4 1.4 11.8 11.0 10.4 16.4 14.9 14.1 17.7 16.2 14.5 6% 14% 10% 9.5%

Average 17,657 9% 4% 3% 1.3 1.2 1.3 10.6 9.8 10.1 15.3 13.8 13.4 17.8 16.0 15.2 5% 8% 9% 9.3%

Median 13,992 9% 4% 3% 1.2 1.2 1.4 10.1 9.3 10.4 15.8 14.0 14.1 17.5 15.5 14.5 5% 8% 10% 9.5%

Eurocon (ABGSCe) 212 1% 6% 5% 0.9 0.8 0.8 8.3 6.7 6.1 15.2 11.0 9.5 17.8 13.3 11.8 3% 6% -6% 5.1%

Eurocon prem ium /discount (+/-) -94% 45% 66% -27% -30% -45% -18% -27% -41% -4% -21% -32% 2% -14% -18% -41% -23% -159% -46%

EBIT-% Avg

('20e-'22e)

Sales grow th (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) P/E (x)

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 6 Net sales, SEKm

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

EBIT, SEKm, and EBIT margins

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Quarterly sales, SEKm

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Quarterly EBIT and margins

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Revenue and costs per employee

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

EPS and DPS progression

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

173.7

198.8 214.2

236.5 252.9 261.2 262.7 278.4 292.4

14% 14%

8%

10%

7%

3%

1%

6% 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Net Sales Growth y-o-y

12.3 15.8

20.6 27.8

24.8

5.2 15.5

20.8 23.4 7.1%

7.9%

9.6%

11.7%

9.8%

2.0%

5.9%

7.5% 8.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e EBIT EBIT margin

61.7 59.2

45.0

70.6 70.5 67.5

48.2 66.6

74.4 68.6

52.9 65.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19

9.7 7.1

2.7 6.2

10.0 6.9

2.7

5.2 4.7 2.8

0.1

-2.4 15.7%

12.0%

6.0%

8.8%

14.1%

10.3%

5.6%

7.8%

6.3%

4.1%

0.2%

-3.6%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19

Adj EBIT, SEKm Adj EBIT margin

0.96

1.03 1.05

1.11 1.08

1.01 0.88

0.94 0.94 0.98 0.96 0.94

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sales/FTE Opex/FTE

0.23

0.31 0.36

0.50

0.58

0.15 0.11

0.25 0.30 0.35 0.35

0.1 64%

81% 83%

70%

60%

88%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-0.10 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.90 1.10

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EPS DPS Payout ratio

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 7

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Income Statement (SEKm) Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020e Q2 2020e Q3 2020e Q4 2020e

Sales 74 69 53 65 68 66 55 74

COGS 0 -13 -14 -25 -19 -16 -13 -16

Gross profit 74 56 38 40 49 49 41 58

Other operating items -67 -50 -35 -39 -43 -43 -35 -48

EBITDA 8 6 3 0 6 6 6 10

Depreciation and amortisation -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3

EBITA 5 3 0 -2 2 3 3 7

EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT 5 3 0 -2 2 3 3 7

Net financial items -0 0 0 1 1 -0 -0 -0

Pretax profit 5 3 0 -1 3 3 3 6

Tax -1 -1 -0 0 -0 -1 -1 -1

Net profit 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 5

Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit to shareholders 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 5

EPS 0.09 0.06 0.00 -0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.12

EPS Adj 0.09 0.06 0.00 -0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.12

Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tax rate (%) 18.9 19.8 32.0 22.7 14.9 22.0 22.0 22.0

Gross margin (%) 100.0 81.3 72.7 61.1 71.7 75.1 75.7 78.2

EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 9.0 6.3 0.7 8.3 9.8 11.7 13.4

EBITA margin (%) 6.3 4.1 0.2 -3.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 9.1

EBIT margin (%) 6.3 4.1 0.2 -3.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 9.1

Pretax margin (%) 6.3 4.6 0.3 -1.5 4.5 4.4 5.2 8.6

Net margin (%) 5.1 3.7 0.2 -1.1 3.9 3.5 4.1 6.7

Growth rates Y/Y Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020e Q2 2020e Q3 2020e Q4 2020e

Sales growth (%) 5.5 1.6 9.6 -2.0 -8.2 -4.2 3.2 13.5

EBITDA growth (%) -28.4 -21.2 -6.4 -92.4 -27.6 4.0 91.0 2,035.6

EBIT growth (%) -52.7 -59.5 -97.0 -chg -49.0 14.2 3,846.9 +chg

Net profit growth (%) -68.9 -49.7 -97.1 -chg -29.9 -11.2 1,844.9 +chg

EPS growth (%) -68.9 -49.7 -97.1 -chg -29.9 -11.2 1,844.9 +chg

Adj earnings numbers Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020e Q2 2020e Q3 2020e Q4 2020e

EBITDA Adj 8 6 3 0 6 6 6 10

EBITDA Adj margin (%) 10.5 9.0 6.3 0.7 8.3 9.8 11.7 13.4

EBITA Adj 5 3 0 -2 2 3 3 7

EBITA Adj margin (%) 6.3 4.1 0.2 -3.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 9.1

EBIT Adj 5 3 0 -2 2 3 3 7

EBIT Adj margin (%) 6.3 4.1 0.2 -3.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 9.1

Pretax profit Adj 5 3 0 -1 3 3 3 6

Net profit Adj 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 5

Net profit to shareholders Adj 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 5

Net Adj margin (%) 5.1 3.7 0.2 -1.1 3.9 3.5 4.1 6.7

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 8

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Income Statement (SEKm) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Sales 152 174 199 215 239 253 261 263 278 292

COGS -16 -13 -16 -12 -21 -20 -28 -24 -25 -26

Gross profit 136 161 183 203 218 233 234 239 254 267

Other operating items -122 -146 -164 -180 -187 -205 -216 -211 -220 -230

EBITDA 14 15 19 24 31 28 18 28 34 36

Depreciation and amortisation -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -13 -13 -13 -13

Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13 -11 -11 -11

EBITA 11 12 16 21 28 25 5 15 21 23

EO items 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT 11 12 16 21 28 25 5 15 21 23

Net financial items -1 1 1 -1 0 6 1 -0 -0 -0

Pretax profit 10 13 17 20 28 31 6 15 21 23

Tax -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 -3 -5 -5

Net profit 8 10 13 15 21 26 5 12 16 18

Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit to shareholders 8 10 13 15 21 26 5 12 16 18

EPS 0.19 0.23 0.31 0.36 0.50 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41

EPS Adj 0.19 0.27 0.35 0.36 0.46 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41

Total extraordinary items after tax 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

Leasing payments 0 0 0 0 0 0 -12 -12 -12 -12

Tax rate (%) 25.5 25.7 22.6 24.6 23.2 18.4 21.1 22.0 22.0 22.0

Gross margin (%) 89.2 92.4 91.9 94.6 91.2 92.3 89.4 91.0 91.2 91.2

EBITDA margin (%) 9.1 8.8 9.5 11.0 12.9 11.3 6.8 10.8 12.2 12.5

EBITA margin (%) 7.4 7.0 7.9 9.6 11.6 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0

EBIT margin (%) 7.4 7.0 7.9 9.6 11.6 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0

Pretax margin (%) 6.9 7.4 8.3 9.3 11.7 12.4 2.4 5.9 7.4 8.0

Net margin (%) 5.1 5.5 6.4 7.0 9.0 10.1 1.9 4.6 5.8 6.2

Growth rates Y/Y 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Sales growth (%) -5.7 14.7 14.6 7.8 11.2 5.8 3.3 0.6 6.0 5.0

EBITDA growth (%) -31.1 10.7 23.5 25.4 30.7 -7.9 -37.4 59.6 18.9 7.7

EBIT growth (%) -27.3 8.6 29.6 30.8 34.5 -10.7 -78.9 195.6 34.2 12.5

Net profit growth (%) -25.8 22.8 33.9 17.7 42.6 18.8 -80.3 138.1 34.4 12.5

EPS growth (%) -27.3 22.1 33.9 16.6 39.6 18.8 -80.3 131.1 34.4 12.5

Profitability 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

ROE (%) 15.9 19.3 24.1 25.3 30.4 30.6 5.8 13.4 16.6 17.4

ROE Adj (%) 15.9 22.3 27.6 25.3 27.6 30.6 5.8 13.4 16.6 17.4

ROCE (%) 21.1 21.6 27.0 31.8 36.8 28.1 4.8 12.2 15.4 16.5

ROCE Adj(%) 21.1 24.3 30.2 31.8 34.2 28.1 4.8 12.2 15.4 16.5

ROIC (%) 29.2 20.0 25.4 36.0 35.2 24.8 4.2 10.5 14.0 15.6

ROIC Adj (%) 29.2 22.4 28.4 36.0 32.7 24.8 4.2 10.5 14.0 15.6

Adj earnings numbers 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

EBITDA Adj 14 17 21 24 29 28 18 28 34 36

EBITDA Adj margin (%) 9.1 9.6 10.4 11.0 12.1 11.3 6.8 10.8 12.2 12.5

EBITDA lease Adj 14 17 21 24 29 28 6 17 22 25

EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 9.1 9.6 10.4 11.0 12.1 11.3 2.4 6.4 8.0 8.5

EBITA Adj 11 14 18 21 26 25 5 15 21 23

EBITA Adj margin (%) 7.4 7.9 8.8 9.6 10.8 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0

EBIT Adj 11 14 18 21 26 25 5 15 21 23

EBIT Adj margin (%) 7.4 7.9 8.8 9.6 10.8 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0

Pretax profit Adj 10 14 18 20 26 31 6 15 21 23

Net profit Adj 8 11 15 15 19 26 5 12 16 18

Net profit to shareholders Adj 8 11 15 15 19 26 5 12 16 18

Net Adj margin (%) 5.1 6.4 7.3 7.0 8.1 10.1 1.9 4.6 5.8 6.2

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 9

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Cash Flow Statement (SEKm) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

EBITDA 14 15 19 24 31 28 18 28 34 36

Net financial items -1 1 1 -1 0 6 1 -0 -0 -0

Paid tax 0 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 -3 -5 -5

Non-cash items -3 1 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cash flow before change in WC 10 13 11 18 25 29 18 25 29 31

Change in WC -4 -12 6 2 -3 -5 -4 0 1 -1

Operating cash flow 7 1 16 20 23 6 6 25 30 30

CAPEX tangible fixed assets -14 -3 -5 -3 -1 9 9 -3 -3 -3

CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 -21 0 -7 -7 0 0

Free cash flow -8 -2 12 18 1 15 8 15 27 27

Dividend paid -11 -9 -6 -10 -13 -15 -15 -4 -9 -11

Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 -21 0 0 0 0 0

Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 -11 -11 -11 -11

Other non cash items -3 -0 6 4 9 8 -17 7 0 0

Decrease in net IB debt -23 -5 7 11 -13 -3 -35 7 7 5

Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Goodwill 20 20 20 20 52 52 62 62 62 62

Other intangible assets 1 1 1 1 5 4 4 4 4 4

Tangible fixed assets 7 7 8 7 7 7 2 3 4 4

Right-of-use asset 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25

Total other fixed assets 8 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 2 2

Fixed assets 36 35 35 33 69 66 95 95 96 97

Inventories 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Receivables 41 53 62 60 71 82 73 73 78 82

Other current assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cash and liquid assets 18 9 17 27 14 12 10 16 24 29

Total assets 96 97 114 120 154 160 177 185 198 209

Shareholders equity 49 50 56 63 78 89 86 93 101 108

Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -0 -0 -0

Total equity 49 50 56 63 78 89 85 93 100 107

Long-term debt 8 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0

Pension debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Leasing liability 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25

Total other long-term liabilities 1 5 1 0 12 1 2 2 2 2

Short-term debt 0 2 2 2 2 2 13 13 13 13

Accounts payable 38 37 51 52 59 65 53 53 58 61

Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total liabilities and equity 96 97 114 120 154 160 177 185 198 209

Net IB debt -10 -4 -11 -22 -10 -7 28 21 14 9

Net IB debt excl. pension debt -10 -4 -11 -22 -10 -7 28 21 14 9

Net IB debt excl. leasing -10 -4 -11 -22 -10 -7 3 -4 -11 -16

Capital invested 40 51 46 41 80 83 115 116 116 118

Working capital 4 16 10 8 11 17 20 20 19 20

EV breakdown 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Market cap. diluted (m) 142 138 214 207 303 257 244 214 214 214

Net IB debt Adj -10 -4 -11 -22 -10 -7 28 21 14 9

Market value of minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EV 133 134 202 185 294 250 272 235 228 223

Capital efficiency 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Total assets turnover (%) 166.8 181.1 189.7 184.0 174.7 161.4 155.1 145.0 145.3 143.7

Working capital/sales (%) 1.4 5.7 6.6 4.2 4.0 5.5 7.1 7.8 7.2 6.8

Financial risk and debt service 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Net debt/equity -0.20 -0.09 -0.20 -0.36 -0.12 -0.08 0.33 0.23 0.14 0.08

Net debt/market cap -0.07 -0.03 -0.07 -0.11 -0.04 -0.02 0.11 0.10 0.07 0.04

Equity ratio (%) 51.6 51.6 49.5 52.4 50.8 55.6 48.1 50.2 50.5 51.5

Net IB debt adj./equity -0.20 -0.09 -0.20 -0.36 -0.12 -0.08 0.33 0.23 0.14 0.08

Current ratio 1.57 1.61 1.46 1.61 1.38 1.38 1.08 1.17 1.23 1.30

EBITDA/net interest 18.10 -22.28 -25.03 35.50 -161.03 -4.39 -15.53 284.60 338.46 364.38

Net IB debt/EBITDA -0.71 -0.28 -0.60 -0.95 -0.31 -0.24 1.58 0.75 0.41 0.24

Net IB debt/EBITDA lease Adj -0.71 -0.26 -0.55 -0.95 -0.33 -0.24 0.53 -0.21 -0.50 -0.66

Interest cover 14.69 -17.75 -20.94 30.98 -144.63 -3.82 -4.56 154.76 207.62 233.54

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 10

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Valuation and Ratios (SEKm) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Shares outstanding adj. 41 41 41 42 43 43 43 44 44 44

Fully diluted shares Adj 41 41 41 42 43 43 43 44 44 44

EPS 0.19 0.23 0.31 0.36 0.50 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41

Dividend per share Adj 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3

EPS Adj 0.19 0.27 0.35 0.36 0.46 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41

BVPS 1.20 1.20 1.36 1.50 1.83 2.08 2.00 2.12 2.28 2.44

BVPS Adj 0.68 0.68 0.84 0.99 0.50 0.77 0.46 0.62 0.78 0.95

Net IB debt / share -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2

Share price 3.45 3.34 5.15 4.96 7.10 6.02 5.70 4.85 4.85 4.85

Market cap. (m) 142 138 214 207 303 257 244 214 214 214

Valuation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

P/E 18.3 14.5 16.7 13.8 14.1 10.1 48.5 17.8 13.3 11.8

EV/sales 0.87 0.77 1.01 0.86 1.23 0.99 1.04 0.90 0.82 0.76

EV/EBITDA 9.6 8.8 10.7 7.8 9.5 8.8 15.3 8.3 6.7 6.1

EV/EBITA 11.8 11.0 12.8 9.0 10.6 10.1 52.0 15.2 11.0 9.5

EV/EBIT 11.8 11.0 12.8 9.0 10.6 10.1 52.0 15.2 11.0 9.5

Dividend yield (%) 5.8 4.5 4.9 6.0 4.9 5.8 1.8 4.1 5.2 6.2

FCF yield (%) -5.4 -1.3 5.5 8.5 0.4 5.8 3.2 7.0 12.8 12.8

Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -5.4 -1.3 5.5 8.5 0.4 5.8 -1.4 1.8 7.5 7.5

P/BVPS 2.88 2.78 3.79 3.30 3.88 2.90 2.85 2.29 2.13 1.99

P/BVPS Adj 5.06 4.91 6.12 4.99 14.26 7.82 12.45 7.83 6.18 5.13

P/E Adj 18.3 12.5 14.6 13.8 15.6 10.1 48.5 17.8 13.3 11.8

EV/EBITDA Adj 9.6 8.0 9.8 7.8 10.2 8.8 15.3 8.3 6.7 6.1

EV/EBITA Adj 11.8 9.8 11.5 9.0 11.4 10.1 52.0 15.2 11.0 9.5

EV/EBIT Adj 11.8 9.8 11.5 9.0 11.4 10.1 52.0 15.2 11.0 9.5

EV/cap. employed 2.3 2.4 3.3 2.7 3.5 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5

Investment ratios 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Capex/sales 9.3 1.7 2.3 1.2 0.2 -3.4 -3.3 1.0 1.0 1.0

Capex/depreciation 546.3 95.9 149.8 88.7 17.0 -234.2 nm 131.3 132.6 139.2

Capex tangibles/tangible fixed assets 191.4 42.0 57.5 38.8 7.7 -125.0 -388.1 92.0 78.7 67.0

Capex intangibles/definite intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Depreciation on intangibles/definite intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Depreciation on tangibles/tangibles 35.0 43.8 38.4 43.8 45.2 53.4 0 70.1 59.4 48.2

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 11 Analyst certification

I/We, Stefan Knutsson, Victor Forssell, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report.

Analyst valuation methods

ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital.

Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered.

Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.

Important Company Specific Disclosure

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The following disclosures relate to the relationship between ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and the companies covered by ABG Sundal Collier referred to in this research report.

Unless disclosed in this section, ABG Sundal Collier has no required regulatory disclosures to make in relation to an ownersh ip position for the analyst(s) and members of the analyst's household, ownership by ABG Sundal Collier, ownership in ABG Sundal Collier by the company(ies) to whom the report(s) refer(s) to, market making, managed or co-managed public offerings, compensation for provision of certain services, directorship of the analyst, or a member of the analyst's household, or in relation to any contractual obligations to the issuance of this research report.

ABG Sundal Collier has undertaken a contractual obligation to issue this report and receives predet ermined compensation from the company covered in this report.

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ABG Sundal Collier is not aware of any other actual, material conflicts of interest of the analyst or ABG Sundal Collier of which the analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of the publication of this report.

Production of report: 25/02/2020 15:34 CET.

All prices are as of market close on 24 February, 2020 unless otherwise noted.

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by ABG Sundal Collier which is the marketing name referring to all or any of ABG Sundal Collier ASA, ABG Sundal Collier AB or ABG Sundal Collier Partners LLP and any of their affiliated or associated companies and their directors, officers, representatives and employees.

This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II.

This research product has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements des igned to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination.

This report is provided solely for the information and use of professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Research reports prepared by ABG Sundal Collier are for information purposes only. ABG Sundal Collier accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but ABG Sundal Collier makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein reflect the judgment of ABG Sundal Collier on the dat e of this report and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This research report does not, and does not attempt to contain everything material that there is to be said about Eurocon Consulting .

The compensation of our research analysts is determined exclusively by research management and senior management, but not including investment banking management. Compensation is not based on specific investment banking revenues, however, it is determined f rom the profitability of the ABG Sundal Collier Group, which includes earnings from investment banking operations and other business. Investors should assume that ABG Sundal Collier is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk and sales personnel and other departments for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. From time to time, ABG Sundal Collier and its affilia tes and any shareholders, directors, officers or employees thereof may (I) have a position in, or otherwise be interested in, any securities directly or indirectly connected to the subject of this report, or (II) perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment bank ing or other services from, a company mentioned in this report. ABG Sundal Collier relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas of ABG Sundal Collier, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of ABG Sundal Collier.

Norway: ABG Sundal Collier ASA is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet); Sweden: ABG Sundal Collier A B

is regulated by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen); UK: This report is a communication made, or approved for

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25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 12

transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact ABG Sundal Collier Inc., not its affiliates. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from ABG Sundal Collier Inc., on request.

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25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 13

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