babwe:
Energy
for National
The B c ~ j c r lisa%titrrLe The Scandinavian Institute Thc Royal Swedish of African Studies
Uppsala, Sweden
SweJcn
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA 9
ZIMBABWE: ENERGY PLANNING FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
RICHARD H. HOSIER
With the Collaboration of:
YEMI KATARERE DAVID K. MUNASIREI JABAVU C. NKOMO BONNIE J. RAM PETER B. ROBINSON
Published by
THE BEIJER INSTITUTE and THE SCANDINAVIAN INSTITUTE The Royal Swedish OF AFRICAN STUDIES
Academy of Sciences Uppsala, Sweden Stockholm, Sweden
The series "Energy, Environment and Development in Africa"
is published jointly by the Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, with financial support from the Swedish International Development Authority
(SIDA)
.
ISSN 0 2 8 1 - 8 5 1 5 ISBN 9 1 - 7 1 0 6 - 2 5 6 - 4
0 The Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies 1 9 8 6
Printed in Sweden by
Bohuslaningens AB, Uddevalla 1 9 8 6
PREPACE
This book presents the major findings of the Zimbabwe Energy Accounting Project (ZEAP). The ZEAP was a joint undertaking between the Beijer Institute of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Water and Energy Resources and Development of the Republic of Zimbabwe. The objectives of the Project were fourfold, namely:
(1) To establish a detailed end-use energy accounting system for Zimbabwe;
(2) To examine rural energy problems in general, and the woodfuel problem in particular;
(3) T o e x a m i n e , i n d e t a i l , i n d u s t r i a l e n e r g y consumption and the commercial fuel supply sectors;
and
(4) T o d e v e l o p a set o f projects consistent with the Government's overall policy directions to address the energy problems identified.
The following volume focuses on the first three of the above objectives, highlighting the methodological tools utilized as part of the integrated energy planning process. It is hoped that through publishing it, the lessons learned and the tools developed can be shared with planners and analysts working in other countries. The fourth objective remains the domain of the government of Zimbabwe, so it is not addressed in detail here.
A p r e v i o u s discussion draft o f this v o l u m e w a s presented to a seminar held in Harare in November of 1984.
The seminar was widely attended by more than 60 professionals and laymen, both from within and outside Zimbabwe. Following the Seminar, the volume has undergone major revisions to reflect the very useful comments received from seminar participants. It is hoped that these changes have served to make this document more accurately reflect the energy situation in Zimbabwe.
W h i l e I a m grateful t o a l l o f t h e authors w h o contributed to this volume, I am especially indebted to Dr.
Richard Hosier for the work he has put into the writing and revising of this volume. I am also indebted to my Deputy Director, Dr. Lars Kristoferson, for his involvement in this effort, and to Dr. Phi1 O'Keefe for helping to initiate this work.
Gordon T. Goodman, Executive Director Beijer Institute
May 1986
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Zimbabwe Energy Accounting Project (ZEAP) was the o r i g i n a l m e d i u m t h r o u g h w h i c h t h i s v o l u m e d e v e l o p e d . However, since the completion of the project in late 1984, this book has taken on a life o f its own. As a result, the following volume is the result of a great deal of direct and indirect input from a large number o f individuals over the past four years. In acknowledging some of these individuals and their inputs, there is a danger that others, who were equally a s influential, w i l l be omitted. Bearing this in mind, I shall acknowledge the debts which come t o mind and apologize for those which I have forgotten.
The ZEAP was a joint undertaking between the Beijer Institute and the Zimbabwean Ministry of Energy and Water Resources and Development (formerly the Ministry of Industry and Energy). A large number o f individuals in the Ministry helped pave the way for its successful completion. Dr. M.J.
Hove, as Permanent Secretary, helped initiate the project in Zimbabwe. The original heads o f the Research Division o f the Ministry, Dr. Ron Chiviya, Dr. Great Makaya, and Dr.
Charles Goromonzi, all contributed heavily to the conceptual formulation of the project and helped push it forward both while they were working in the Ministry and after they had left. I greatly appreciated their advice and moral support throughout the project's two-year lifespan. Mr. Herbert Makina, a s Director of the Energy Department, assisted in drawing the project to a meaningful conclusion. In addition, Mrs. D.Q. Chandiwana, Mr. C. Chidiya, and Mr. P. Chitekunye were all active and helpful contributors to project work.
The sponsors of the project were also extremely helpful throughout the duration o f this effort. Within the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA), Mrs. Karen Wohlin was an advocate and supporter o f this work from the time o f the initiation of the project through to the final editing of this volume. Mr. Dag Ehrenpreis, stationed in Harare during the project's lifespan was a constant source of helpful advice and provided a very useful review of a draft of this document. In the Netherlands Foreign Ministry, Mr. Arjan Hamburger was a firm source of support and encouragement.
Although not officially a sponsor of the project, Mr. Ronnie Sava o f the EEC provided sound advice and moral support throughout the project's lifespan.
A s p e c i a l v o t e o f t h a n k s i s d u e t o t h e Z i m b a b w e Institute of Development Studies (ZIDS) for sharing both their resources and staff for the project effort. Mr. R.S.
Maya and Mr. Sam Moyo were both positive contributors to the project. Mr. T h a n d i k a M k a n d a w i r e a l w a y s p r o v i d e d a lighthearted perspective on the situation. Dr. M. Tin, Mr. E.
Moyo, and Mr. M. Maxwebo of the Central Statistical Office
were always cooperatively responsive t o m y outlandish requests. The Economics Department o f the University of Zimbabwe provided help, comradery, and friendship at times when it was most needed. Nelson Moyo, Dan Ndlela, Logan Pakiri, and Rob Davies are all owed large debts of gratitude.
Ann and Bob Seidman helped the project t o get underway by frequently opening their home. Noel and Doris Galen played a crucial role as project parents.
I am pleased to thank the collaborating authors of this book for their contributions. Yemi Katarere came through with his knowledge of Zimbabwean forestry and people at a time when he was sorely needed. D.K. Munasirei performed some of the most thankless work on the project by slaving over the l a n d - u s e e s t i m a t e s for months. Bonnie R a m , a s Z E A P administrator and "lead-man" for much of the industrial work, went the second m i l e in a l l o f her work for the project.
Peter Robinson provided a strong conceptual focus for the group's work, and in so doing, served as a constant source of inspiration t o me. J.C. Nkomo did much of the grind-work on the industrial consumption survey.
Although a large number of individuals served as consultants t o the project, only a handful actually wrote s e g m e n t s o f t h i s v o l u m e and a r e t h e r e f o r e l i s t e d a s collaborating authors. A large round of thank-you's are due to Barry Munslow, Pauline Ong, and Nancy Folbre who assisted in the initial stages of project conceptualization. The members of the field team, Robyn Haney, Tom Harris, Kirsten Johnson (and Nico), David Mazambani, Andrew Mutuma, Charles Nhova, Pete Phillips, Martin Taremba, and Danny Weiner a l l made-essential contributions to project work. Priscilla Chinyangara spent late hours typing the initial draft of this study. From the Energy Systems Research Group in Boston, Paul Raskin, Steve Bernow, Jim Goldstein, and especially David White helped formulate, shape, and produce the final product.
S i n c e A u g u s t o f 1 9 8 5 , I h a v e b e e n based a t t h e University of Pennsylvania where a number of colleagues have helped push me along. Professor Britton Harris has encouraged me through accepting me as a younger colleague and thereby helped me get settled in to an environment which is vastly different from that to which I had become accustomed. Steve Feldman and Bob Wirtshafter of the Energy Program have helped me along as f e l l o w conspirators. The members of Professor Harris' AT-899 seminar also helped me put this work into a planning perspective. Rita Kilpatrick deserves a hearty vote of thanks for cleaning-up the polished draft and doing the indexing.
From the Beijer Institute, Phi1 O'Keefe initially talked our way into the project, and I am grateful to him for it. Mike Chadwick managed to help me maintain something of a
more realistic outlook on life. Lars Kristoferson has always been supportive and encouraging even in my darkest moments, which h a v e been numerous. Above a 1 l , Gordon Goodman, who s t u c k w i t h b o t h m e and t h e P r o j e c t t h r o u g h s o m e v e r y difficult times, has earned my perpetual admiration and affection.
Finally, Diane Galen helped, nursed, and at times, carried me through the project, and I strongly thank her for it.
And so, I would like to thank a 1 l of the above people and any others whom I may h a v e forgotten. However, despite a l l o f their contributions, the final product, with any e r r o r s o f o m i s s i o n o r c o m m i s s i o n , a r e s o l e l y m y responsibility.
April 1986
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE
. . .
iACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
. . .
iiiTABLEOFCONTENTS
. . .
vLIST OF TABLES
. . .
v i i i L I S T O F F I G U R E S. . .
X ENERGY CONVERSION FACTORS. . .
xiENERGY CONTENT OF DIFFERENT FUELS
. . .
xiLIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
. . .
xii1
.
ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN ZIMBABWE. . .
1Energy and Development
. . .
2Zimbabwe's Energy Economy
. . .
4Integrated Energy Planning
. . .
62
.
CURRENT ENERGY CONSUMPTION. . .
End-Use Energy Demand. . .
Rural Energy Consumption. . .
Rural Domestic Energy Use. . .
Agricultural Energy Use. . .
Rural Small-Scale Industrial Energy Use.
Urban Energy Consumption. . .
Urban Domestic Energy Use. . .
Municipal Energy Use. . .
Informal Sector Energy Use. . .
Industrial Energy Consumption. . .
Mining & Manufacturing Energy Consumption Construction Energy Use. . .
Commercial Energy Use. . .
Transportation Energy Consumption. . .
Road Transportation. . .
Rail Transportation. . .
Air Transportation. . .
3.
CURRENTENERGYSUPPLY. . .
37Energy Conversions
. . .
4 2 Energy Resource Requirements. . .
43Electricity
. . .
4 4. . .
Coal 45 Liquid Fuels. . .
45Wood
. . .
4 6 Farming Systems. Land Use and Agricultural Productivity. . .
4 7 Wood Stocks and Yields. . .
58Current Wood Supply Patterns
. . .
634
.
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS: DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Base-Case Definition. . .
Demographic Assumptions
. . .
Economic Assumptions
. . .
Energy Resource Requirements
. . .
Future Energy Balance
. . .
Commercial Fuel Requirements
. . .
Electricity
. . .
Coal
. . .
Liquid Fuels
. . .
Optimization of Commercial Fuel Supply Investments
. . .
Woodfuel Requirements
. . .
Land-use Projections
. . .
Demand For and Supply of Wood
. . .
Wood Resource Adequacy
. . .
Alternative Scenarios: Rural Oriented and
Industry Oriented Growth
. . .
Results of the Three Scenarios
. . .
5
.
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS: IMPERATIVES FOR ACTION Future Energy Problems. . .
Rural Energy Concerns
. . .
Urban Energy Concerns
. . .
Industrial Energy Concerns
. . .
Transportation Energy Concerns
. . . .
The Integration of Energy Planning
. .
Focusing on the Major Energy Problems
. . .
Institutional Responsibilities
. . .
6
.
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS. . .
Energy Policy Alternatives
. . .
Wood Resource Options
. . . . . .
Wood Supply Enhancement
FarmForestry
. . .
Periurban Plantations
. . .
Commercial Plantations and Woodlots Management of Natural Forests
. . .
Rural Afforestation: A Summary
. . . .
Fuelwood Demand Mitigation
. . .
Interfuel Substitution
. . .
Efficient Woodstoves
. . .
Energy Options for Rural Applications
. . .
Draught Power
. . .
Waterpumping
. . .
Other Renewable Energy Applications
. .
. . . .
Energy Options for Industrial Applications 144
Energy Conservation
. . .
144Enhanced Technological Capabilities
. . .
145Interfuel Substitution
. . .
146Pricing Policies
. . .
148Energy Options for Transportation
. . .
149Improved Vehicular Efficiency
. . .
149Alternative Liquid Fuels
. . .
150Rail Electrification
. . .
151Air Transport
. . .
151Ensuring Adequate Supplies of Energy
. . .
1527
.
POLICY SCENARIOS. . .
Proposed Policy Scenarios. . .
Wood Energy Scenarios. . .
Program Components. . .
Improved Woodstoves. . . .
Fuelwood Supply Enhancement Other Interventions. . . .
Long Term Impacts. . .
Commercial Fuel Program. . .
Program Components. . .
Urban Electrification. . .
Industrial Fuel Substitution Transport Fuel Substitution Long Term Impacts. . .
8.
DIRECTIONS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ZIMBABWE. . . .
177Energy Program Components
. . .
178. . .
Implications for Other Developing Countries 182 Methodological Reflections. . .
185CHAPTER NOTES
. . .
189INDEX
. . .
203LIST OF TABLES Table No
.
Page i. ii Energy Conversion Factors. . .
xi2.1 Summary of End-Use Disaggregation
. . .
1 2 2.2 1982 National End-Use Demand Summary by Fuel Type and Sector. . .
1 4 2.3 Percent of Fuels and Energy Used by Sectors. . .
1 4 2.4 Rural Household Activity Levels. 1982. . .
172.5 Rural Households End-Use Energy Consumption
. . .
182.6 Percent of Rural Household Energy Use by Subsector and Fuel
. . .
19Energy Intensity of Major End-Uses in Rural Domestic
. . .
Sector
Agricultural Activity Levels 1982
. . .
Agricultural End-Use Energy Consumption
. . .
Percent of Agricultural Energy Use by Subsector and
. . .
Fuel
Urban Household End-Use Energy Consumption
. . .
Energy Consumption by Industrial Subsectors. 1982
. . .
Intensity of Industrial Energy Utilization
. . .
Energy Consumption in the Construction Sector
. . .
Energy Consumption by the Commercial Sector
. . .
Transportation Energy Consumption
. . .
Zimbabwe's Energy Balance. 1982
. . .
Electricity Supply Sources 1982
. . .
Coal Production at Hwange
. . .
Liquid Fuel Requirements. 1982
. . .
Provincial Totals by Natural Region
. . .
Land Use Categories and Natural Regions
. . .
Land Use Categories in Zimbabwe
. . .
Non-Utilizable Land in Zimbabwe
. . .
Indigenous Forest/~razing Land in Zimbabwe
. . .
Wood Stocks by Natural Region and Land Type
. . .
Wood Yield by Natural Region and Land Type
. . .
Total Wood Stocks and Supplies by Land Type
. . .
Provincial Total Wood Stocks and Supplies by Land Type
Population. Number of Households and Growth Rates.
1982-2002 . a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Economic Growth Projections: Base-Case
. . .
Cropped Area Projections: Base-Case
. . .
2002 Natural End-Use Demand Summary by Fuel Type and Sector
. . .
Annual Growth Rates in Energy Consumption by
. . .
Major Sector
Annual Growth Rates in Energy Consumption by Fuel Type Fraction of Rail Traffic Hauled
. . .
Projected Energy Balance. 2002
. . .
Base Case Electricity Generation and Consumption
. . .
Coal Projections
. . .
Quantities of Imported Liquid Fuels
. . .
Supply and Demand for Ethanol
. . .
Projection of Cropped Land
. . .
Percentage Increase in Agricultural Productions by Farming System
. . .
National Fuelwood Supply and Demand Relationships
. . .
Provincial Fuelwood Supply and Demand
. . .
Fuelwood Supply and Demand for Provinces Facing
Absolute Wood Shortfal l
. . .
Average Annual Energy Demand Growth Rates 1982- 200 2
for the Three Scenarios
. . .
100Paraffin Required to Meet Wood Shortfall
. . .
106Summary of Energy Problems Identified
. . .
116Cost per Effective GJ Cooking Fuel
. . .
196Qualitative Comparison of Different Afforestation Options
. . .
130Laboratory Test Results: Efficiency and Power Ratio
. .
135Impacts of Sample Alternative Energy Program
. . .
143Summary of Cross-Price Elasticities of Demand
. . .
147Summary of Own-Price Elasticities of Demand
. . .
201Wood Resource Project Policy Targets
. . .
159Wood Resource Balance: Base Case vs
.
Policy Case. . .
160Changes Resulting from Urban Electrification. 2002
. .
164Changes in the Chemical Sector's Electricity Requirements Due to the Phasing-Out of the Electrolysis Process
. .
167Changes in Transport Sector Energy Requirements. 2002
.
171 Combined Changes in Energy Demand Arising from Commercial Fuels Policy Scenario. 2002. . .
173LIST OF FIGURES Figure No
.
Page 3.1 Energy Supply Process. . .
413.2 Zimbabwe Administrative Provinces
. . .
493.3 Natural Regions
. . .
503.4 ZEAP-Adapted Natural Regions
. . .
51Consumption by Fuel Type: Base-Case Projections
. . .
Consumption by Sector: Base-Case Projections. . .
Fuelwood Supply Balance: Base-Case Projections. . .
Source of Wood Supplies: Base-Case Projections. . .
Population Projections for Different Scenarios: 2002. . .
Economic Projections for Different Scenarios : 2002. . . .
Consumption by Sector. . .
Consumption by Fuel Type. . .
7.1 Fuelwood Balance: Wood-Policy Scenario. . .
163ZIMBABWE
R A I L W A Y ROADS
TABLE i
ENERGY CONVERSION FACTORS Million tons oil
equivalent 1 Mtoe Million barrels oil
equivalent l Mboe Million tons coal
equivalent l Mtce Gigawatt-hour 1 Gwh
Kilocalorie l kcal
...
Note: Prefixes efer to the following uni S:
Kilo(k)=lOS=one thousand Tera(T)=lO1'=one trillion
~ e g a ( ~ ) = l o ~ = o n e million P e t a ( P ) = l ~ ~ ~ = o n e quadrillion Gigs( ~ ) = 1 0 ~ = o n e billion pica(Pc) =1018=one quintillion Also note that in this report, dollars($) refer to Zimbabwe dollars unless otherwise specified.
TABLE ii
ENERGY CONTENT OF DIFFERENT FUELS
CATEGORY FUEL VALUE USED IN THIS REPORT
...
SOLID FUELS Wood 16.3 GJ/ ton Coal 30.5 GJ/ ton Coke 30.5 GJ/ ton LIQUID FUELS Ethanol 21.46 MJ/ liter
Petrol 31.74 MJ/ liter Blend 30.36 MJ/ liter Paraffin/Jetfuel 34.34 MJ/ liter Diesel/Gas-oil 35.52 MJ/ liter
LPG 46.40 MJ/ kg AV Gas 31.05 MJ/ liter
...
Note: A range of values exists for a l l of the above fuels except for electricity depending on their origin, specific chemical composition, or moisture content. The above numbers are based on accepted standards for Zimbabwe.
The actual sums of the table rows and columns in this volume may vary slightly from their printed totals due to computer rounding.
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ARDA CIP CS0 CTF CZI ESC I DC LEAP LSCFA MEWRD
NR NRZ PV SADCC
SSCFA ZEAP ZIMASCO ZISCO
Agricultural and Rural Development Authority Census of Industrial Production
Central Statistical Office Coal-tar Fuel
Confederation of Zimbabwean Industries Electricity Supply Commission
Industrial Development Corporation LDC Energy Alternative Planning System Large-scale Commercial Farms Area
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources and Development
Natural Region
Zimbabwe National Railways Photovoltaic
Southern African Development Coordination Conference
Small-scale Commercial Farms Area Zimbabwe Energy Accounting Project Zimbabwe Mining and Smelting Company Zimbabwe Iron and Steel Company
CHAPTER 1
ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT I N ZIMBABWE
Zimbabwe's energy future contains numerous opportunities and constraints. This book presents these in a fashion which is intended to both highlight these options and detail the methodology which has been applied to energy planning in Zimbabwe, and can be used in other developing countries. The work presented here was originally carried out as part of the Zimbabwe Energy Accounting Project (ZEAP), a joint undertaking between the Energy Department of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources and Development (MIED) of the Republic of Zimbabwe and the Bei jer Institute of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. While it in no way represents an authoritative statement of energy policy in Zimbabwe, it does encompass the most detailed assessment of Zimbabwe's energy situation undertaken to date. It makes use of the LDC Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) which is a form of national energy reference system adopted for the special conditions found in developing countries. It first attempts to identify the future energy problems which Zimbabwe is likely to face, and then attempts to identify possible solutions to those problems. While Zimbabwe's problems are different from those of any other nation, this planning methodology and many of the policy findings of the study have direct relevance for other developing countries.
This first chapter serves as a foundation for the discussion. It begins by addressing the role of energy in economic development. Certain patterns and problems have been identified in the field of energy planning over the past decade. In the first section, these problems are high1 ighted as they form a conceptual basis for much of what follows. The second section discusses the nature of Zimbabwe's energy economy. Zimbabwe's history has created an economic system which demonstrates singular patterns of energy use. The final section turns to a more detailed discussion of the process of integrated energy planning as it will be used throughout this book. One of the recurrent themes of this volume is that energy planning cannot take place in isolation from other developmental initiatives and trends in the country. In order to be meaningful and effective, energy planning must be both comprehensive in scope and sensitive to the broader economic, environmental, and social context in which policies are to be formulated.
ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
Numerous studies have demonstrated the fact that as eco- nomic development procedes, the consumption of electricity and fossil fuels increases. At the same time, the consum- ption of woodfuels, dung, and crop residues decreases. This transition results in both a higher total and per capita energy consumption. More inanimate energy is required to increase labor productivity as well as to perform other complex operations associated with industrial development.
In some cases, countries which demonstrate roughly equivalent levels of per capita GDP can have markedly different energy consumption patterns. These differences are frequently exemplified using t h e cases o f Sweden and t h e United States./l/ Per capita energy consumption in the U.S. is roughly twice that of Sweden, even though per capita GDP is near1 y the same. Thus, conservation practices, cultural differences, and history have created numerous exceptions to this rule of thumb.
Among developing countries, large variations are identifiable between OPEC and non-OPEC LDC's. The former demonstrate inordinately high levels of consumption of petro- leum fuels given their qualitative levels of development.
Nevertheless, LDC's are faced with an opportunity to build into their energy systems many of the conservation lessons which have been learned by the industrialized countries. If an awareness of energy efficiency can be incorporated into programs of technology transfer, LDC's stand to gain a great deal from avoiding wasteful and unnecessary forms of energy utilization. Inefficient technologies can be side stepped, allowing newly industrializing countries to move immediately to more efficient technologies./Z/ Conservation techniques can be made to benefit developing countries and thereby lessen their need to consume large quantities of energy in order to develop according to specified plans.
However, the decision to deploy such energy-efficient technologies must be viewed from both a political-economic framework and an awareness of a country's peculiar resource endowments. While it is theoretically possible to install only state-of-the-art energy-efficient technologies in developing countries, the political, capital or foreign- exchange costs of doing so may be prohibitive. It is simply not possible to generalize and say that all countries should deploy the most efficient technologies available. While the efficient technology may be desirable in some cases, in other situations it may be inferior to a less-efficient technology which makes use of a relatively plentiful local resource.
Prudent energy policies should weigh both the short- and long-term economic and energy costs of a particular policy option. Energy is only one factor which enters into the
decision-framework or planning matrix o f a country. The examination of a country's energy system cannot be divorced from a consideration of the general development objectives and potential of the country.
In recent years, three problems common to the energy systems of developing countries have been identified.
Although these problems do not occur with equal intensity in a1 l LDC's, they are encountered frequent1 y enough to provide a basis of discussion o n the topic of energy in developing countries. First, LDC's are forced to accept whatever international prices prevail for petroleum products. For oil- importing developing countries, balance of payment problems have become particularly acute. Important development initiatives can be constrained by the need to use scarce foreign exchange to import fuel. For OPEC countries, such as Nigeria or Indonesia, the initial euphoria surrounding the price hikes have dissipated with the deteriorating debt situations and t h e i n a b i l i t y t o engage in meaningful financial planning with any degree of certainty. Second, most LDC's are faced with an accelerating problem in the provision of their most important fuel source: woodfuel. In recent years, woodfuels have been consumed at a far faster rate than they can be produced on a sustainable basis. The result is that in many developing countries, wood has ceased to be a renewable resource. Third, the capital-short nature of LDC economies has serious implications for their energy systems.
From a financial perspective, the shortage of capital resources limits the ability to improve outdated equipment.
Likewise, the shortage of human capital means that energy equipment i s o f t e n p o o r l y managed and inadequately maintained. In short, the very nature of the development process itself exacerbates these energy problems by limiting the feasible options available for countries to solve them.
Energy planning in developing countries frequently becomes more a discussion of development than of energy.
These problems are greatly complicated by the class structure of most developing countries. Within any given country, i n d i v i d u a l energy consumption patterns vary according to the economic status of the individual. Those in stronger positions are able to ensure that their energy needs are met. But if energy planning in developing countries is to be a meaningful process, it must take account of the needs of the entire population. It is insufficient to plan either for just the urban-based industries or the rural poor.
Consideration must be given to the present and future energy requirements o f a l l sectors of the economy. At times, the focus w i l l be o n p o l i c i e s which ensure "energy for subsistence" while at others, the focus shifts to "energy for development." The former are most clearly identifiable when speaking with reference to the woodfuel problem. Policies
designed to ensure adequate wood supplies are meant to ensure that the population has sufficient energy resources to meet their basic subsistence needs. Policies promoting "energy for development" are those policies which enable more sophisticated fuel-technology combinations to be used either for improving standards of living or for enhancing employment and income-generating activities.
ZIMBABWE'S ENERGY ECONOMY
In 1980, Zimbabwe emerged as a newly independent nation with a strong and relatively well-diversified economy.
The preceding sanction years of UDI forced the Zimbabwean e c o n o m y t o d e v e l o p u s i n g a n i m p o r t - s u b s t i t u t i o n industrialization strategy (ISI)./3/ The State played an active role in the establishment of manufacturing firms through its program of subsidies and controlled prices. By limiting the ability of Africans to hold higher-paying, skilled positions, a labor-reserve economy was effectively created. /4/ Wage discrimination w a s reinforced by a legislatively-created land-tenure system. Although some reforms were made in this system, the nature of the economy remained largely unaltered up until the time of independence.
The economy was characterized by large inequalities set up along racial lines. In light of this, Government has stated that its long-term development strategy is
...
to introduce measures for fundamental transformation of the system over time. Steps will, therefore, be taken to reduce the socio- economic dualism, integrate activities, and involve the people in the development process.Government will encourage the evolution of new patterns of production and consumption based on the needs of the people. /5/
Zimbabwe's energy system reflects the structural dis- parities found throughout the economy. While a great deal of attention has been paid to investment in the supply of coal, electricity, and liquid fuels, virtually no investment has been made in the area of woodfuel, which fulfil 1 s the basic energy needs of over 80 percent of the population./6/ This is consistent with the overall structure of the inherited economy./7/ The needs of the urban-industrial sectors were catered to while those of the African population were ignored.
Lacking any known petroleum reserves, Zimbabwe has always imported its liquid fuel requirements. At first, these fuels were carried by road and rail from Durban. More
recently, they have been brought through the pipeline from Beira to Feruka. Since the decommissioning of the Feruka refinery, a l l petroleum imports have been in the form of refined products. As part of its IS1 strategy, Zimbabwe developed an ethanol plant at Triangle Estate to produce ethanol as a petrol-extender. This has been possibly the single most successful ethanol project in Africa as ethanol now substitutes for about 15 percent of the nation's petrol needs.
Zimbabwe has long had a large, relatively we1 l-developed electricity system. With a peak system capacity exceeding 1000 megawatts (MW), the Zimbabwean system is among the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. During the UDI years, the vast hydropower potential of the Kariba complex provided a seemingly limitless and extremely inexpensive source of elec- tricity to the country. Some industries were attracted and established on the basis of inexpensive electricity supplies.
A large part of Zambia's share of the Kariba power was purchased outright by Zimbabwe. O n l y in t h e post- independence period has the demand for electricity in the two countries grown sufficiently to justify the construction of new power-generating facilities. Government has responded by establishing a large thermal generating station at Hwange.
Despite the strength of the electricity supply system, the previous regime made only limited attempts to extend the e l e c t r i c i t y network into African areas. Fewer than 200 thousand households have been provided with electricity service. The overwhelming majority of these are in the urban areas.
Zimbabwe possesses ample coal reserves to supply a large proportion of the country's primary energy needs. At present, the only active collieries in the country are operated by Wankie Colliery Company, a subsidiary of Anglo-American Cor- poration. The company is in the midst of a large expansion program designed particularly to supply the needs o f the Hwange Power Station complex. Government has assisted in the procurement of financing for this expansion by purchasing 40 percent of the Wankie Colliery shares. As the vast majority o f the c o a l used in Zimbabwe is indigenous, Government is seeking to encourage its substitution for imported fuels wherever possible.
While commercial timber supplies in Zimbabwe are well- provided for, virtually no consideration was given to the provision of woodf uel prior to independence. The domestic energy source for the bulk of the urban and rural population was thereby ignored. Large areas of rural Zimbabwe have been deforested to provide for both the expansion of agriculture and the wood energy needed by urban and rural users. Since independence, a rural afforestation pilot project has been undertaken by the Forestry Commission. However, its scope is
limited in terms of both the area1 extent and the production alternatives being pursued.
Zimbabwe's energy economy re£ lects the imbalances and inequalities of the country's economy. While much planning and investment have gone into the provision of commercial energy supplies for the urban-industrial complex, little or none has been devoted to the needs of the bulk of the population. Despite obvious historical differences, the situation in Zimbabwe is not unlike that of many other African countries. However, given its economic strength and natural resource endowments, Zimbabwe is in a better position to solve these problems. The success of ~overnment's policy of transition to socialism in the energy sector will be determined by how successful it is at redressing this short- coming.
INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING
Integrated energy planning involves the assembling of a l l available data on energy demand and supply in order to propose, evaluate, select, and implement a set of energy policies which are consistent with stated development goals and objectives. Three important components o f this definition deserve special mention. First, integrated energy planning must take into consideration the demand for and supply o f all fuels being used within the economy. Other- wise, only a fragmented picture of the total energy system can be obtained, and the likelihood of ignoring a critical resource, such as woodfuel, or an important constituency, such as low-income households, is high. In addition, impor- tant synergistic effects, such as fuel complementarity or substitution, are likely to be excluded from consideration.
For example, if forecasts of the demand for any single fuel are made without taking into consideration the possibility of interfuel substitution, demand forecasts are liable to be dangerously misleading. By definition, integrated energy planning must integrate the planning for all energy supplies.
Second, integrated energy planning cannot be undertaken in a vacuum. The success of energy planning can only be measured by the ease with which the economy obtains adequate energy supplies. In this sense, energy planning can be said to be most effective where it is least visible. It is a process designed to ensure the provision of energy for economic activity. It serves a supporting role to the normal functioning and unimpeded development of the economy. All too often, energy planning is visible only when fuel-supply crises occur. It frequently operates only in a "crisis management" framework, with no opportunity to judiciously consider future problems and opportunities. As a result, it
is more noticeable by its absence than its presence. Energy planning can only be effective when it is "integrated" into the wider development planning context of the nation in which it takes place. Agricultural and industrialization policies;
economic and demographic growth trends; and s o c i a l , environmental, and foreign exchange constraints must a1 l be considered when developing an integrated energy plan.
Finally, if it is to be effective, integrated energy planning must lead to concrete energy policies incorporating programs and projects in those areas where present and future energy bottlenecks or opportunities to enhance development have been identified. The comprehensive analysis of energy demand and supply must be undertaken in such a way a s to pinpoint specific problem areas. Once this has been done, an integrated set of policies for energy development, which takes into account essential s o c i a l , economic, and environmental concerns, can be formulated. Programs and projects can then be devised to address the most-pressing problems and to ensure an adequate and reliable supply of energy to those economic sectors requiring it. A l l too frequently, energy-related activities in developing countries center around project- planning, p l a y i n g l i t t l e o r n o attention to the broader developmental context and the p o l i t i c a l issues involved./8/ I for t h e s a k e o f expediency, planners choose to forego this comprehensive planning stage, plans and projects may well be devised for areas with less significant problems, while more critical energy problems fail to receive the attention they deserve.
The LDC Energy Alternative Planning Program (LEAP) has provided an important analytical tool for this exercise.
LEAP was developed by the Beijer Institute and the Energy System Research Group to simplify the integrated energy p l a n n i n g process. It permits t h e user t o examine quantitatively the impact of different development alter- natives on the national energy balance and to evaluate the effectiveness of different energy policy interventions in physical, monetary, and foreign exchange terms. One of the purposes of this book and the Zimbabwe Energy Accounting Project, upon which it i s based, w a s t o test t h e LEAP methodology to its fullest in a context different from the one for which it was originally developed. /9/
The LEAP system follows essentially the same procedure as do other energy accounting frameworks. However, it is uniquely adapted to the needs for developing countries. It begins with the specification of a detailed set of end-use energy accounts for a base-year. Energy requirements at the end-use level are measured in terms of the number of joules required to achieve a given activity level, Activity levels are measured in terms o f dollar contribution to GDP, number of households, or some other measure of the magnitude of
subsectorial activities. As has been discussed, all sectors of the economy must be included in this evaluation if the assessment is to be comprehensive in nature.
Next, these present end-use energy requirements are projected on t h e basis o f economic and demographic assumptions. Projected end-use energy requirements are then passed to the Transformation Module, where they are converted into their physical resource equivalents. Energy conversion losses are included in these calculations so that the final resource requirements are, of necessity, greater than end-use demand requirements. Through this process, the user is able to determine whether or not supplies of commercial fuels will be sufficient to meet demand, given the assumptions utilized for the projection scenarios.
Wood- resource requirements a r e then fed i n t o t h e Resource (Land-Use) Module which keeps track of wood supplies in all provinces, ecological zones, and land-use categories.
By calculating the demand for wood on an annual basis, the results indicate the adequacy of wood resources to meet projected l e v e l s o f wood demand. A l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y scenarios can then be used to examine the potential impact of proposed policy interventions. In this way, the use of the LEAP system assists in both the identification of national energy problems and the evaluation of the efficacy of different policy interventions in addressing those problems.
This book presents the major findings of the Zimbabwe Energy Accounting Project (ZEAP). The ZEAP was initiated to fill the gap left by the lack of integrated energy planning in Zimbabwe. /10/ In presenting those findings, this book takes into account the major components of integrated energy planning as described above. Subsequent chapters will trace the different stages of the integrated energy planning process. In particular, Chapters 2 and 3 document the construction of an energy demand-supply balance for all fuels used within Zimbabwe. Chapters 4 and 5 discuss the scenarios developed to analyze Zimbabwe's energy future and the energy problems which are likely to emerge. Chapters 6 and 7 begin to develop and test a set of energy policies, programs, and projects to deal with the most important of the problems identified. The final chapter summarizes the findings of the book with respect to both energy planning methodologies and Zimbabwe's energy future. It is hoped that through this approach, more will be learned not only about Zimbabwe and its energy prospects, but also about energy planning in Africa and the developing world in general.
CHAE'TER 2
CURRENT ENERGY CONSUMPTION
T h e first s t a g e i n t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a s e t o f national energy accounts is the estimation of energy demand requirements. The assumption underlying this is that energy systems are demand-driven: the entire system responds in order t o meet the effective demand for energy. This chapter outlines the nature of energy consumption in Zimbabwe for the designated base-year o f 1982./1/ It is intended t o provide the foundation for the consumption forecasts presented in subsequent chapters. First, the concept o f energy demand as it is used in this volume w i l l h a v e t o be defined. The concept of energy end-use is fundamental to this analysis.
Then, a summary of energy consumption in 1982 is presented before turning to a more-detailed discussion of energy use in different sectors of the economy. This detailed discussion begins by examining the energy requirements o f the rural- based segments o f the energy system. It then moves to a description o f energy use in the urban areas. Next, energy utilization in the manufacturing, mining, and commercial sectors is examined before concluding with a discussion of Zimbabwe's transportation system and its energy requirements.
A s w o u l d b e e x p e c t e d from s u c h a d i s c u s s i o n , t h e emerging picture reflects the fact that the different sectors o f Zimbabwe's economy are each dependent upon a specific fuel-mix to f u l f i l l the end-uses undertaken. These fuel- mixes are the result o f past investments, policies, and decisions. Because of the complexity inherent in the energy system, attempts t o alter these patterns may prove t o be d i f f i c u l t , e x p e n s i v e , a n d , i n m a n y c a s e s , n e x t t o impossible. In part, the continued health of the Zimbabwean economy will be determined by how satisfactorily these fuel- supply requirements are met.
END-USE ENERGY DEMAND
The approach adopted in this document relies on the concept of end-use. It seeks to quantify energy consumption requirements by examining the final purpose t o which that energy is put. In energy terms, end-use can be defined as a qualitatively discreet quantity of energy or fuel utilized to f u l f i l l a specific purpose. Within each sub- sector of the economy, certain energy-using activities are performed. In an end-use analysis, the number of joules required for each activity in each economic sector is estimated. The quantity o f energy used in each subsector of
the economy can then be added together. End-use analysis allows energy to be linked to physical production within the economy, not to do1 lar values. Inflation, therefore, does not influence the future projections. It is an extremely useful technique for demonstrating the impacts of technological changes and energy policy initiatives on the overall level of energy requirements. It is only by breaking down energy consumption into discreet packages that a detailed and accurate picture of national energy demand requirements can be obtained.
Because of the adoption of the end-use approach, the definition of energy demand adopted will differ from that normally used by economists./2/ When speaking with reference to the base year of 1982, energy demand will refer to the quantity of energy actually consumed. For future years, energy demand refers to the quantity that would be consumed given the projections incorporated into each scenario. By definition, demand and supply are equal in the base year, making it possible to project them through time in order to identify future imbalances. However, there may currently be pockets which are experiencing severe shortages of woodfuels.
Since one of the purposes of this exercise is to identify possible imbalances in future supplies and requirements, demand will not be assumed to be met in the future unless some action is taken to ensure that it is. According to the engineering-based end-use approach, prices are not the most important determinant of energy demand. Instead, energy requirements are determined by the tasks or end-uses being performed in combination with the technologies being employed to carry them out. The approach gives more of a physical perspective on energy requirements. While this does not deny the importance of the economics of energy deployment, it does indicate that they are assumed to be less important than the technologies and end-uses.
In order to examine t h e consumption o f different fuels, it is necessary to adopt a common energy unit. In this report, a multiple of the joule will be used as the standard energy unit ( n o r m a l l y expressed in Peta- joules o r 1015 joules). In some sections, particularly those dealing with energy supplies, we will make use of either physical units (e.g. liters, tons, or kilowatt hours) or energy units depending on the context. The factors used to convert from physical units to joules are summarized in Tables i and ii following the Preface.
The LEAP program used for this analysis allows energy consumption to be broken down by sector, subsector, end-use, and device-fuel combination. In any given subsector, several end-uses are normally performed, and a number of devices are available to fulfil l those end-use requirements. Some devices, such as the open hearth, are capable of being used
with several different fuels. The particular fuels in use at any time depends on the prevalent form of technological development. As technological development changes through time, so do overall fuel consumption requirements and particular fuel mixes. The calculations required to keep track of the fuel requirements quickly become extremely complex. For the sake of both testing the methodology and capturing the complexities of Zimbabwe's energy system, the process of collecting and analyzing the data attempted to preserve as much detail as possible in the energy accounts.
The subsectorial and end-use breakdowns used to represent Zimbabwe's current energy demand are summarized in Table 2.1.
The techniques used to make the disaggregated estimates of energy use are described briefly in the sections which follow. When the disaggregated data are re-aggregated by subsector across a l l end-uses and fuels, an accurate and detailed picture of national energy demand for 1982 emerges.
For each subsequent year, the projection is based on the same detailed energy accounting matrix, but using the activity
levels described in Chapter 4.
Final energy consumption is summarized for the base-year of 1982 in Table 2.2. The table contains the number of Peta- joules (PJ) of end-use fuels used in each sector of the economy for 1982. T o t a l energy consumption came to 244.00 PJ, a figure corresponding t o approximately 5.38 million tons of oil equivalent. Using the estimated 1982 population of 7.546 million, this works out to a per capita rate of 32.33 GJ per person or slightly more than 0.71 tons of oil equivalent per person. As is indicated by the figures in Table 2.2, the most important source of energy in the economy is woodfuel. Coal, electricity, wood for commercial purposes, diesel and other fuels each constitute a smaller fraction of total energy requirements by comparison.
TABLE 2.1 SUMMARY OF END-USE DISAGGREGATION
...
SECTOR SUBSECTORS END-USE
...
Rural Households Comnunal Areas Cooklng/Heatlng
R e s e t t l e d Areas L i g h t i n g
SSCFA I r o n i n g
LSCFA B u i l d i n g M a t e r i a l s
Urban Households High D e n s i t y Areas Cooking, L i g h t i n g , R e f r i g e r a t i o n Low D e n s i t y Areas Water Heating, I r o n i n g
...
A g r i c u l t u r e Communal Mal ze
LSCFA Cotton
Resettlement "A" Tobacco
S t a t e Farms Wheat
SSCFA Other c r o p s
S.S. l r r i g a t l o n Cooperatlve Farms
...
i n d u s t r y Mining F o o d s t u f f s D r i n k 8 Tobacco Text l l e s Wood 8 F u r n i t u r e Paper 8 P r i n t i n g N o n - b t a l I l c M i n e r a l s T r a n s p o r t Equipment Metals A Metal Goods Chemicals
Mechanical D r i v e D i r e c t Process Heat
i n - p l a n t T r a n s p o r t B o i l e r Heating Process Feedstock Timber Feedstock Storage Other
Transport L i g h t Road V e h i c l e s L i g h t Passenger, L i g h t Goods Heavy Road Vehicles Heavy Passenger, Heavy Goods Ral l Transport R a i l Passenger, R a i l Goods A i r Zimbabwe,Affretalr, T u r b o c r a f t
Other A i r l i n e s T u r b o c r a f t , P i s t o n c r a f t
C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i v a t e Sector C i v i l e n g i n e e r i n g
pub l l c Sector B u i l d i n g , B u i l d i n g M a t e r i a l s
...
M u n l c i p a l l t i e s AI l * Water 8 Sewerage,Street L i g h t i n g
...
l nforma l Sector AI I* AI I *
...
Commerc i a I A I I* AI I*
...
N o t e : A s t e r i c k ( * ) d e n o t e s t h a t c u r r e n t d a t a b a s e d i d n o t w a r r a n t f u r t h e r disaggregation.
TABLE 2.2 1982 NATIONAL END-USE DEMAND SUMMARY BY FUEL TYPE AND SECTOR ( P e t a j o u l e s o r Mi I I I o n G l g a j o u l e s )
...
PORT l NG LIQUID FUELS COAL PRODUCTS ELEC- FUEL- CWMERCIAL TOTAL
TEGOR l ES TRI- WOOD WOOD
ClTY
...
nd- Use F u e l PET- ETHA- AV- PARA- DIE- LPG COAL COKE CTF ELEC- FUEL- RURAL EXO- INDI- TOTAL
ROL NOL GAS FFl N SEL TRI- WOOD POLES TIC GENOUS
JET- CITY TIM- TIM-
FUEL BER BER
~ c t o r
u r a l Household 0.74 2.70 0.13 102.26 27.45 133.28
-ban Househo l d 0.25 0.02 0.70 3 A 5 3.19 7 6 0
g r l c u l t u r e 2.78 8.79 1.94 7.32 20.84
...
n d u s t r y 0.06 0.22 0.91 14.14 13.45 0.74 17.35 0.57 0.39 47.84
...
- a n s p o r t 7.78 0.86 0.15 2.10 9.76 7.55 0.00 28.20
...
m s t r u c t l o n 0.81 0.17 1 . l 6 2.23
i f o r r n a l I n d u s t r y 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.24 0.25
Table 2.3 contains a sectorial breakdown of end-use fuel consumption. By comparing the numbers in parentheses, it can be seen that fuelwood alone accounted for nearly 47 percent of a l l the energy used in Zimbabwe in 1982. Coal products account for a nearly twenty percent, while electricity and liquid fuels each constituted about eleven percent of end-use fuel consumption. Commercial wood, a potential energy resource which is diverted for other purposes, is used l a r g e l y for r u r a l p o l e s , industrial sawn t i m b e r , and construction materials, accounting for another 11 percent of total consumption. When f uelwood and commercial wood are combined, they together constituted over 58 percent of all
t h e energy used i n Zimbabwe. T h e s e figures h i g h l i g h t t h e critical role played by wood in ~imbabwe's energy system.
TABLE 2.3 PERCENT OF FUELS AND ENERGY USE0 BY SECTORS
SECTOR LIQUID COAL ELECTRICITY COMMERCIAL FUELWOOD TOT)
FUELS PRODUCTS WOOD
...
Rural Household 2.8 5 -6 0.5 92.8 90.5 54.
(0.6) (2.0) (0.1) (20.6) (76.7) (100-
...
Urban Household 0.9 1.5 13.1 2.8 3 #
(3.4) ( 9 - 2 ) (45.4) (-1 (42.0) (100.
I n d u s t r y 4.4 58.9 65.6 3.3 19.
(2.5) (59.2) (36.3) (2.0) ( - ) (100,
T r a n s p o r t 76.8 15.7 11.
(73.2) (26.8) ( - 1 ( - ) ( - ) (100-
C o n s t r u c t i o n 3.3 0.6 3.9 0 -
(40.1) ( - 1 (7.7) (52.2) c-) (100.
...
Municipal l t l e s
-
5.1 0.(-1 ( - ) (100.0) ( - ) ( - ) (100.
...
Informal I n d u s t r y 0.1 0.2 0.
(-1 ( - ) (7.7) ( - 1 (92.3) (100.
...
Commercial 1.4 7.7 2.
(15.3) (-1 (84.7) ( - ) ( - ) (100.
...
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.
(11.0) (19.7) (10.8) (12.1) (46.4) (100.
...
Note: The t o p number i n each box r e p r e s e n t s column percentages. The bottom number ( I n parenthesis) r e p r e s e n t s row percentages.
The sectorial percentage figures show that the rural household sector alone accounts for the consumption of more than h a l f of a l l the energy used in Zimbabwe. Fifty-five percent of total national energy consumption is used by rural households, largely for cooking and housing. Most of this energy is in the form of wood. Industry uses slightly less than 20 percent of all end-use energy. The transport sector (11%) and the agricultural sector (8.5%) are the next largest
energy users in Zimbabwe.
An examination of the table reveals that while wood is the most important fuel in the rural household sector, electricity is most important to the urban household sector.
Agriculture uses mostly coal, fuelwood, and liquid fuels (particularly diesel). Coal products and electricity are the most important fuels for industry. Transportation relies largely on liquid fuels and construction makes heavy use of commercial wood and liquid fuels. In the following sections, each of these end-use sectors is discussed in detail.
RURAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Rural Zimbabwe reflects an historical process of uneven development which was deliberately created and maintained.
The objective was to maintain a constant source of cheap labor to mines, industries, and large-scale commercial farms.
The former state acted to limit access to capital, land, and new technologies to the white minority. Current patterns of energy consumption reflect these policies as they vary tremendously among different rural subsectors. Government's growth-with-equity strategy is an attempt to reverse this historical trend.
In conceptualizing Zimbabwe's rural energy system, six agricultural production systems can be distinguished./3/
Each of these rural subsectors plays a particular role in the economy, exhibits markedly different energy supply and demand characteristics, and presents a different set of energy policy options. These subsectors are:
1) Large-Scale Commercial Farms (LSCF) 2) State Farms
3) Small-Scale Commercial Farms (SSCF) 4) Communal Areas
5) Resettlement Areas 6) Cooperative Farms
Zimbabwe's rural energy consumption accounts for over 60 percent of national energy use. While rural energy requirements are often ignored, in this case it would be unthinkable to do so. In the following presentation, the agricultural and domestic energy requirements of each of the
above subsectors has been kept separate whenever possible.
Household or domestic energy requirements in the rural areas are discussed before turning to agricultural energy use patterns.
RURAL DOMESTIC ENERGY USE
The national household energy survey provided the basis for the estimates of domestic energy use. This survey, undertaken by the Permanent Household Survey Unit of the Central Statistical Office (CSO), was undertaken during the first half of calendar year 1984./4/ The sampling frame in- cluded more than 5000 households, over eighty percent of which were from the rural areas. The survey instrument enabled household energy consumption to be disaggregated by end-use, end-use device, and fuel type. It also contained information about the type of housing prevalent in the sur- veyed areas, making possible an estimate of the wood used for construction purposes. For this reason, it was important to make a distinction between households living in traditional homes (pole and dagga) and households living in mixed homes (bricks). This information on the number of households using a particular type o f construction was supplemented with detailed measurements of wood requirements for building./5/
Construction wood appears to be a major use of wood in the rural areas.
The rural returns t o t h e surveywere t h e n b r o k e n d o w n b y subsector based on the sampling framework employed. Four distinct subsectors were used in the analysis: communal areas; resettled areas; small-scale commercial farming areas (SSCFA or former purchase areas); and large-scale commercial farming areas (LSCFA). The data for each subsector were analyzed and entered as distinct sub-sectors into the LEAP program. The total number of households in each subsector were obtained from the preliminary census results for 1982./6/ The population, average household size, and total number of households in each subsector are summarized in Table 2.4.
TABLE 2 - 4 RURAL HOUSEHOLD ACTIVITY LEVELS 1982
POPULAT l ON AVERAGE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
SUBSECTOR (THOUSANDS) HOUSEHOLD SIZE (THOUSANDS)
...
Communal Areas 4,331 -5 5 SO 866.3
R e s e t t l e d Areas 128.7 4.7 25.8
SSCFA 182.1 7.0 26.0
LSCFA 1,068.4 4.5 237.4
...
TOTAL 5,710-6 4.9 1,155.5
...
As indicated earlier, the rural household sector is the largest energy-consuming sector in Zimbabwe. For 1982, consumption in this sector was estimated to be 133.28 PJ, nearly 55 percent of the national total. These results are further broken down by subsector in Table 2.5. Again, these figures emphasize the relative importance of wood in the energy-use patterns of each subsector. Fuelwood is used primarily for cooking, heating, and often for lighting by rural households. Rural poles, included here because they represent a diversion of energy resources to a non-energy use, are used for building houses and livestock kraals.
Paraffin, used largely for lighting in most rural households, constitutes the third most important fuel used in the rural sector.
TABLE 2.5 RURAL HOUSEHOLD END-USE ENERGY CONSUWTION ( P e t a j o u l e s or Ml l l I o n G l g a j o u l e s )
...
PARAFF l N SUBSECTOR
SUBSECTOR FUELWOOD POLES JETFUEL COAL ELECTRICITY TOTAL
Communal Areas 79.56 22.44 0.60 0.1 1 102.71
R e s e t t l e d Areas 2.46 0.90 0.01 3.37
SSCFA 2.57 0.18 0.00 2.76
LSCFA 17.67 3.93 0.12 2.70 0.02 24.43
TOTAL 102.26 27.45 0.74 2.70 0.13 133.28
T a b l e 2.6 presents rural domestic energy use in percentage terms by subsector and fuel-type. The r o w percentages show that woodfuel constitutes between 7 0 and 99 percent of the energy used in each subsector. Domestic energy use in the communal areas represents approximately
8 0 percent of end-use energy consumption in the sector. In
energy terms, households in the large-scale commercial farming sector are the second largest energy-using subsector.
Overall, total energy use among rural households is deter- mined by the magnitude of the communal areas and the heavy reliance on wood by the entire rural population. This has significant implications for possible policy interventions, as shall be discussed later.
