Security risks of climate change
Climate change induced conflicts in western Kenya Caroline Sofie de Groot
Political Science C (Bachelor Thesis) Department of Government
Uppsala University, Spring 2018 Supervisor: Hans Blomkvist Words: 12 674
Pages: 44
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine links between climate change and conflicts. The report aims to produce relevant insights on the security risks posed by climate change in the rural pastoral area Sarambei in western Kenya. The research was conducted in spring 2018 and founded by an MFS-scholarship from Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA). The research examines the hypothesis that climate change is increasing the risk of insecurity. Through qualitative methods twenty respondents living in Sarambei and five experts were interviewed. The main finding of the study is that climate change is happening, affecting the people in Sarambei and are creating conflicts through water scarcity.
However, it is difficult to say that climate change is the only source for these conflicts, but instead emerges from the interaction of multiple factors.
Table of Contents
Acknowledgment...4
1. Introduction...5
2. Theoretical Framework...6
2.1 Previous Research climate security...7
2.2 Definitions...10
2.3 Sample region...12
3. Research Design...14
3.1 Choice of Method...14
3.2 Data Selection...15
3.3 Expert interviews...15
3.4 Weaknesses and Limitations ...16
4. Results and Analysis ...17
4.1 Climate change in Sarambei - How do we know it is taking place?...17
4.2 The climate-conflict link - Water security...19
4.3 From climate change to conflict...23
4.4 Characteristics of climate change conflicts in Sarambei...25
4.4.1 Demonstrations...26
4.4.2 Complexity of climate change...29
4.4.3 Conflict in the family...30
4.5 Addressing the security risks of climate change...31
5. Conclusion...33
6. References ...35
Appendix I: Interview guide...37
Appendix 2: Respondents...41
Acknowledgments
I would like to send a huge thank you to Wendo Sahar Aszed who was my supervisor in Kenya. She is one of the most inspiring people that I have had the privilege to meet and was of great help during the fieldwork done in the study. I received the warmest possible reception into her family and being able to stay in their loving home was a great experience for me. I would also like to thank all the amazing people at Dandelion Africa whose support when conducting this study was of tremendous help.
All the people in Sarambei that I had the pleasure to meet and interview gave very important input for the study. I would also like to send my gratitude to my piki-piki (motorcycle) driver Tim, who even though the rainy season were in full progress and the roads at places were completely destroyed or missing, still were able to take me to the most remote villages for conducting interviews.
Meeting with Ulf Björnholm and the other people in the office at UNEP in Nairobi were extremely educational and led to important connections that were of great help in the study.
My supervisor Hans Blomkvist at the Department of Government at Uppsala University has been of great help and I am grateful for all his valuable input. Finally I would like to thank SIDA -without their help and receiving the Minor Field Study grant this study would never have been possible.
1. Introduction
‘’Competition between communities and countries for scarce resources –especially water –is increasing, exacerbating old security dilemmas and creating new ones. Environmental refugees are reshaping the human geography of the planet, a trend that will only increase as deserts advance, forests are felled, and sea-levels rise. Mega crises may well become the new normal. These are all threats to human security, as well as to international peace and security’’ (Ban Ki-Moon in the Security Council, 20 July 2011).
In 2011, United National Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon made a strong statement in a speech to the Security Council on the impact of Climate Change on International Peace and Security (United Nations Secretary-General, 2011). Seven years later, in July 2018, the UN Security Council then had their first debate on climate change and security again. The outcome from the meeting was that the UN Security Council now addresses climate change as a security risk. Environmental changes have become a security problem. The security implications of climate change are a global threat to security and are a key challenge of the 21st century (Rüttinger, 2015: 10). Climate change is a risk for human security and is not only an environmental issue anymore. Examples of conflicts partially caused by climate change are the war in Syria and the conflicts in the Lake Chad area.
Increasing demand for natural resources combined with environmental degradation and climate change will serve to intensify competitive pressures between countries and communities. The impact on climate, such as changing water events, can and will contribute to conflicts. Reduced access to water and extreme weather events have a negative affect at food security and undermines the livelihoods of vulnerable households and communities.
Elinor Ostrom has been doing research about conflicts created by lacking availability of common-pool resources.
The main purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis about the security risks of climate change in a rural pastoral area in western Kenya. The hypothesis in this study is that climate change is increasing the risk of insecurity.
Problems related to climate security engage scholars as well as policymakers. This paper tries to examine climate change in relation to the water problems that have led to conflicts in a rural area called Sarambei. The connection between climate change and security is a combination of multiple risks that leads to conflicts. Human insecurity almost never has
single causes, but instead emerges from the interaction of multiple factors (IPCC, 2014: 54).
This study will investigate in which way water scarcity caused by climate change have turned into conflicts in Sarambei. The research question of this paper is: how does climate change affect the risk of conflict through water scarcity?
The following questions were used when analysing the data that was collected:
- How do we know that climate change is taking place in Sarambei?
- Which groups or actors (e.g. locals, farmers, pastoralists) are identified as being affected by climate change and are participating in the conflict?
- What characterizes the conflict?
Finally, I will analyse how the security risk of climate change can be managed and addressed:
- How to address the security risks of climate change in Sarambei?
In this study, I have focused on small-scale conflicts in a rural pastoral area in Kenya where the majority of the people live in poverty and can thus be consider as being one of the most vulnerable people for climate change (IPCC, 2014:760). The link between resource availability and conflict is assumed to be more immediate and direct, while the link between climate change and conflict could be seen as more indirect.
The paper begins with a review of previous research. This is followed by a presentation of the theoretical framework, which is used to form the theoretical argument about the link between climate change and the security risks. The research design is then presented, including a discussion about data selection and problems and limitations of the data of the study. In the section that follows, the results are presented and discussed. Some final remarks on the results and suggestions on future research conclude the paper.
2. Theoretical Framework
In this section, the security risks of climate change are discussed on a theoretical level.
Previous research is first discussed, and is then followed by a discussion about the definitions and approaches that are used in the study. The section is concluded with a description where the data was collected.
2.1. Previous research on climate security
The connection between climate change and security has been proved from a large collection of literature and I have chosen to highlight some of them here. Environmental changes such as changing weather events contribute to conflicts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report from 2014 states that ‘’human security will be progressively threatened as the climate changes’’. The connection between climate change and security is a combination of multiple risks that leads to conflicts. Human insecurity almost never has single causes, but instead emerges from the interaction of multiple factors (IPPC, 2014:54).
Increased temperatures lead to heat waves and droughts that result in reduction of arable lands and desertification. Reduction of fresh water resources leads to an increase of water stress on people and agriculture. Malnutrition, economic loss and population displacement lead to conflicts. UNEP in Kenya published a report in 2015 that describes the conflict risks of environmental changes. The report shows that the increasing demand for natural resources combined with environmental degradation and climate change will serve to intensify competitive pressures between communities. Competition over natural resources could increase the risk of domestic conflict. The relationship between climate change and conflicts are complex. Indeed, it is not easy to establish direct links between climate change and conflicts. (UNEP, 2011:5).
In one of the more comprehensive studies in the field, van Balen and Mobäck (2016) create a deeper understanding of the pathways from climate change to violent conflict in East Africa.
Climate change has a negative impact on the availability of natural resources. Climate change as extreme weather events such as floods or droughts can result in a loss of livelihood for people. Loss of livelihood is one of the most frequently suggested explanations how an environmental change increase the risk for conflict in East Africa (Mobäck, 2016:20). The report says that research about climate change security has an important role for better knowledge and action on this topic. Some researchers, like Jon Barnett argues that there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue and it is important for better understanding of the subject (Barnett, 2003:641). This paper strives to fill the gap in the literature on the security risks of climate change and create a better understanding of how competition caused by climate change over natural resources such as water could turn into conflict.
Several reports find a strong relationship between the supply for environmental resources and the occurrence of conflict that sometimes turn violent. Climatic parameters could explain the connection between poverty and violent conflicts in Kenya’s pastoral areas (Adano, 2012:66).
The risk for conflicts caused by climate change will hit Africa hard because of the highly climate-dependent economic sector. The increasing scarce water resources are associated with a high risk for conflict. Burke et al. (2009) found correlations between changes in temperature or high levels of variability in rainfall and the likelihood of violent conflict events in Africa.
Research has shown that climate related shocks produce conflicts. The strong relationship between rainfall and economic resources in agriculture creates a large uncertainty and predicting any potential for climate change-related conflicts (Clionadh, 2012: 54). The result from an analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa by Clionadh and Dominic (2012) is a theoretical linkage between climate and conflict that focuses on rainfall variability as a marginal driver of conflict frequencies. Conflict frequencies are exacerbated by both extreme wet and dry conditions.
Previous research has shown that conflicts will increase in Sub Sahara Africa the coming years. The risk of increased conflict trends in Africa are likely a result of many complex reasons, there climate change could be one. Inadequate governance, corruption, heavy dependence on natural resources also increases the risk for conflict. (Adano, 2012:66).
Competition over natural resources often creates conflicts, but conflict may also be triggered by the absence of good institutions. Adano et al. describe that a combination of economic, social and political uncertainties, climate change might increase the risks of conflict and instability, especially under conditions of poor governance (Adano, 2012:66).
The theoretical framework used in this study is based on the work done by Elinor Ostrom about the common-pool resources (CPR). An irrigation system, a bridge and a river are a few examples on common-pool resources. The definition of a common-pool resource are natural or human-made facilities that generate flows of usable resource units over time (Ostrom, 1994: 3). It is difficult to exclude or limit users once the resource is provided, and one person’s consumption of resource units makes those units unavailable to others (Ostrom, 2010:157). Governance of common-pool resources is to decentralize resource use
that resource users should effectively self-organize and sustainably manage the CPRs themselves. Studies has shown that the availability of common-pool resources across border areas leads to periodic conflicts in the dry lands (Adano, 2012:66).
All successful cases of common-pool resource self-governance have eight principles in common. Individuals or households that use the CPR should have clearly-defined boundaries.
To take decisions on a local level, when the individual interacts directly in the decision making process, is an important principle in the design of a CPR institution. In other words, the decisions should be made through collective-choice arrangements that allow most individual affected by the resource to participate. The rules that the community have agreed on should be enforced though effective monitoring and those who do not follow the rules are punished with graduated sanctions. When a community are applying rules, it can frequently lead to conflict between the people. If no one in the community follows the rules it could ultimately lead to that the rules are viewed as unfair and conformance rates decline and conflict may occur. If conflicts are triggered they should be addressed with low-cost conflict resolution mechanisms (Ostrom, 2010:9). One important aspect for being able to take decisions on a local level is that external governmental authorities give the resource appropriators the right to self-govern. Ostrom believes that people are capable of communicating, agreeing on rules and then sanctioning or punishing the people that violated the rules. This is the ideal way to govern common-pool resources according to Ostrom.
Ostrom was critical to Garrett Hardin’s work of the Tragedy of the Commons that means that every individual tries to have the greatest benefit form a shared-resource system. Hardin was also critical to Ostrom’s work. The depletion of common-pool resources was a natural consequence of individuals pursuing their own rational self-interest. In Hardin’s article from 1968 he was concerned about the effects of population growth on the quality of natural resources such as land, water and air.
This study will focus on how climate change influences resources and societies from water and extreme weather events. The availability of water is becoming increasingly uncertain.
Reduced rainfall and increasing variation in its distribution already influence the productivity of agriculture and livestock. Poorly maintained water distribution infrastructure creates water stress. Climate change leads to more intense and in some cases to more frequent extreme weather events and the climate are becoming more unpredictable. Climate change leads to
more storms, floods and droughts but also to longer periods of extreme heat. The most vulnerable are poor households who tend to live in the most hazardous environments (Sida, 2018:8).
2.2 Definitions
The definition on climate change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC). United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (1992) defines climate change as: "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods". Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales, for example more frequency of extreme weather events. Climate impacts are consequences of climate change on natural and human systems like increased resource scarcity, floods and droughts (IPCC).
The definitions climate change, climate variability and climate impact are often placed under the umbrella term ‘climate change’ (Mobäck, 2016:7). It is important to note that the impacts on human systems occur as a function of climate change, climate variability and the vulnerability of an exposed society and system (Mobäck, 2016:7). When investigating to find the link between climate change and conflict in Sarambei I will focus on climate variability as frequency of temperature and extreme weather events and impacts of climate change as increased resource scarcity, floods and droughts. In order to simplify readability, I will use the term "climate change" as a unifying concept of the above definition from IPCC. My definition on climate change in this study captures all theses aspects of a changing climate, see Figure 1.
Figure 1. Climate change, climate variability and climate change are often placed under the same umbrella term climate change. To simplify readability, climate change is used in this study as a unifying concept of above definitions. Source: (IPCC, 2014:120–124)
The approach to climate and security in this study is that climate change is increasing the risk of insecurity. In Climate-related security (2016) risks the authors discusses the definitions of risk versus threats, when talking about the security-related risks that climate change poses (Mobäck, 2016:4). In policy-oriented literature the negative effects of climate change are often referred to as a security threat, sometimes even compared to the threats like terrorism.
The authors prefer instead to talk about security risks. This definition helps to stress the fact that insecurity caused by climate change are exposing risks that are already present in our society, leading to situations of security. By contrast, talking about security threats makes it seem that climate changes is the only factor that is causing these issues. I agree and will thus talk about security risks instead of threats in this paper.
Climate change poses risks to human security and is more likely to trigger low-intensity conflict than larger scale conflicts like civil wars (Barnett, 2003: 11). Conflict is defined as an active disagreement between people with opposing opinions or principles according to the Cambridge dictionary. Conflict by definition is not necessary always violent, even though
many studies point out the violent conflict posed by climate change. My definition does not necessarily mean that the conflict is violent.
2.3 Sample region
To better understand the context the research is conducted within, some facts about Kenya, sustainable development and climate change are presented. Kenya is located in East Africa and is home for over 50 million people, where a big part of the population lives in poverty.
Rural population in Kenya was reported at 73.94 % in 2016 according to the World Bank. The slum areas are growing since the urbanisation. Combatting corruption, reducing violence and ending poverty are all major challenges for Kenya.
The sustainable development goal (SDG) index ranks countries with regards to their initial status on the 17 SDGs and on the 0 – 100 scale. Kenya’s SDG index is 44,0 and the country is ranked 120 out of 149 countries (SDG dashboard, 2016:17). Kenya is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the world. Kenya’s climate change vulnerability index is 0,3 on a monitor of 0-1 and is therefore marked as red. A red SDG highlight means priority for every country.
In the context of climate change and security in western Kenya increased variability of rainfall, temperature rise and more frequent drought and floods are taking place. This leads to a greater water and food stress and brings insecurity on the people. Changes in natural resource availability could turn into competition for resources (UNEP, 2011:14).
Access to water is an essential component for development and security, and is specifically addressed in goal six of the SDGs. Charity For Safe Water & Sanitation organization says that 41 per cent of Kenyans still rely on unimproved water sources, such as ponds, shallow wells and rivers. In rural areas this percentage are much higher. According to the Kenya’s Water Act every person in Kenya has the right to clean and safe water in adequate quantities and to reasonable standards of sanitation. Regulations for water are found in the Water Act from 2016. To use water, a permit is required for any use of water from a water resource, except for domestic purposes. Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA) has the main responsibility for regulation and control of water use (Ministry of Water and Irrigation, 2006:11).
Figure 2. Sarambei is located in western Kenya. Source: Maphill
The data was collected in a rural pastoral area called Sarambei, Rongai Sub County in western Kenya, see Figure 2. It is located within latitude of -0.062946 and a longitude of 35.971065, just right on the equator and has a population of 15 000 people. Most speak Kiswahili and English. Livestock, especially cattle or small-scale farming is the main occupation in Sarambei. Men are traditionally responsible for looking after the livestock while the women are taking care of the children, farming, cooking and fetching water. If the children are not in school, they usually help to look after the sheep and goats.
A survey that was handed out by a local NGO, Dandelion Africa, to the people living in Sarambei asked for the main challenges in the community. 194 people participated in the survey and were asked for the main challenges and ranked their three main challenges. The result were that lack of water, insecurity and unemployment were the main challenges, see figure 3. Since water scarcity and insecurity were the two main challenges it makes this study more pressing and relevant.
Figure 3. Results from a survey handed out from Dandelion Africa asked 194 people living in Sarambei for the main challenges in their daily life. Lack of water and insecurity were the two largest challenges.
3. Research Design
In this section, the general research design of the paper will be presented and discussed. The choice of method is presented first, followed by a discussion about the different types of selected data. The choice of collected data of the study will be presented and explained.
Lastly, weaknesses and limitations of the chosen method, the data, and the overall research design will be discussed.
3.1 Choice of Method
In order to find the links between the security risks of climate change the research are made through qualitative interviews with local people in rural communities in Sarambei. The study also contains a number of interviews from experts in the field. The empirical data are mainly semi-structured interviews. Relevant and meaningful semi-structured questions allow developing a keen understanding of the topic. Being able to follow up respondents' answers with additional questions is one of the major benefits of interviewing. This structure gives space for additional questions and comments. By conducting a qualitative study, the subject can be investigated deeper and get a broad understanding of different peoples’ views on the subject. The study investigate in a relatively unexplored field and it will be interesting to know the peoples’ perception of how water scarcity caused by climate change could turn into local conflict. The choice of method suits the purpose of the investigation and hopefully this study may complement previous research.
Lack of water Insecurity Unemployment
Lack of healthcare/hospitals Bad roads
Drug abuse Alcoholism Poor sanitation Drop out school Lack of medicine Early pregnancy Poverty
HIVDrought Lack of food
3.2 Data selection
The aim of the interviews is to produce relevant insights and understandings to address the security risks posed by climate change. Twenty interviews were conducted in spring 2018 with local people in Sarambei, Kenya. At seven of the interviews an interpreter was used, the other 13 were conducted in English. The selection was based on finding people that have much input to give on the study subject. One selection criteria was that all the respondents were dependent on the Rongai river. One other criteria was that the person had been involved in conflicts concerning water usage. Since the study will investigate long trends of climate change, all of the 20 respondents have lived in the area for 20 years or longer.
Dandelion Africa is a non-governmental organization working in the district of Sarambei. The organization is rooted in a marginalized area and has large knowledge of rural cultures and social norms as well as of the challenges facing the communities in the area. Dandelion helped to find respondents that reached the selection criteria. The interview times varied between twenty minutes and one hour, usually the conversation lasted for about forty minutes.
The prepared questions to the respondents have been the same and the questions were based on an interview guide (Appendix 1). Common occupations were small-scale farmer, teacher, social worker, chief or having a small business. A majority of them were living on small-scale farms. The respondents are anonymous and the names in the research part are figurative. All interviews have been recorded and transcribed.
3.3 Expert interviews
In order to investigate the relationship between climate change and security risks, expert interviews are used to strengthen the study and to provide relevant information for answering the research question. Experts possess specific knowledge, experiences and insight in the subject that is studied and does often have responsibilities and obligations of the specific functional status within an organisation or institution. The chosen experts are relevant for the study because their privileged access to decision-making processes and knowledge about the area. Expert interviews are often held under a tight schedule, thus an interview guide is used.
The performance of the interview is based on a targeted selection. A targeted selection is an attempt to create consistency between research questions and selection (Bryman 2008: 434).
The prepared questions to the experts have been the same and the questions were based on an interview guide (Appendix 2). This selection technique has been chosen based on the
assessment that the respondent should be able to contribute relevant information and give the study a deeper understanding of the security risks of climate change.
The Ministry of Water and Irrigation and the Ministry of Agriculture based in Mogotio, Baringo sub-county have both participated in the study. Ulf Bjornholm, Deputy Director, Governance Affairs Office at UNEP in Nairobi and Joakim Harlin Head of the Freshwater Unit of UNEP have also given important knowledge on the subject. Lastly, the input from the Water Resource Management Authority in Nakuru was also very meaningful. These experts were selected since they were believed to be able to give important expert insight on the subject.
3.4 Weaknesses and Limitations
The ethical aspect is important to take under consideration. Questions concerning conflicts caused by water in local societies may be sensitive. For this reason, the respondents will be anonymous.
The interviews were performed in a rural area, where people speak Swahili or their tribe language as their first language and English as their second. Linguistic misunderstandings and misinterpretations may therefore become obstacles complicating the study. When the interviews were done through an interpreter there is always a risk of information getting lost or getting somewhat modified.
The study was dependent on Dandelion Africa since they helped to select respondents. This dependency could be considered a problem, for example the respondents can be assumed to share some thoughts and ideas. Many of them know each other, which could explain any similarity in their answers. The help and support the study gained from Dandelion was of such value that possible bias of the results were a risk worth to take.
The sample cannot be generalized to a larger group and is a purposive sampling. The respondents are chosen to provide understanding and not to be able to generalize the results to a wider population (Bryman 2011: 392). To use a qualitative method allows for developing a deeper understanding how climate security are affecting the people in Sarambei.
4. Results and analysis
In this section, the results of the study will be presented and analysed. Respondent’s answers will be presented, but given the scope of the interviews these will not be described in their entirety. Initially I will discuss if climate change is taking place in Sarambei followed by a discussion of climate-conflict link: water security. The security risks of climate change are then analysed and followed by a discussion of characteristics of the conflicts taking place.
How to manage and address the security risk of climate change in Sarambei are further analysed and discussed. In connection with each theme the typical answers will showcase the broad patterns that exist. A discussion and highlighting of the main findings of the study closes the section.
4.1 Climate change in Sarambei - How do we know it is taking place?
We fear that Sahara desert will reach us because the climate has really changed. We cannot rely on the rains anymore and that is why irrigation has started. Because we did not have food, so the farmers had to start using the river for irrigation. They use the water from the river for farming. The meteorological department tell us it will rain, but it never rains here anymore. It was not like that before. Climate has really changed a lot. (Respondent Maggie)
The following part will try to answer if the respondents have experienced any changes in the climate. Climate change such as unpredictable rainfall, droughts and more extreme weather events in Sarambei are discussed. One interview question was whether weather has changed if they compare from when they moved here or from when they grew up here. All respondents have lived in the area 20 years or longer. Another question was to describe how climate change affects their daily lives.
Climate change is complex. No continent will be struck as severely by the impacts of climate change as Africa will (UNEP). Sarambei is not an exception, but to say for certain that something is caused by climate change is quite difficult. From the expert interview with Ulf Björnholm he describes climate change as long-term trends. His recommendation on how to answer the research question was to interview older people in the community that could explain if the climate has changed over time and find common climate trends. He adds that as scientists we can always lean back on the principle that the entire scientific community agrees that climate change is taking place right now and that it hits different places non-equally, but the changes are there. The planet is 0.8 degree warmer than in pre-industrial times and the
most vulnerable people are affected by it the most (World bank). Emma, a small-scale farmer describe the situation as:
The climate was much more favourable before (Respondent Emma).
All the 20 respondents who participated in the study described a change in the climate in Sarambei. The common denominator everyone raised was that they cannot predict the weather anymore. According to the respondents, Sarambei has become drier and have more unpredictable rainfall. Every year is different. In earlier years the people knew when the dry and rain season started and ended, but that is not the case anymore. As previous research has shown, during the 21st century, heavy rainfall are likely to become more intense and more frequent, like many people are experiencing and do confirm in Sarambei. Consequently, soil erosion may intensify, even though total rainfall may not increase (IPCC, 2014). Research highlights the increasing unpredictability of weather patterns including rainfall, drought and wind.
I grew up here and we used to have planting season from March to June when we had the long rains. The rain was sufficient to our crops. But since 4-5 years ago, we do not have any crops in Sarambei because either the rain comes earlier, or the rain comes late. It is not proportional. It is either that, or having a lot of rain like now. If you compare, long time ago and right now, either we have a lot of rain in a short period of time or we have long droughts that affect us all. It was not like that before. It is very difficult for farmers to plan. When the rain starts earlier, like this year, maybe after 3 weeks again the rain stops. It is very difficult for us all here in Sarambei. (Respondent David)
Changes in rainfall and other forms of precipitation will be one of the most critical factors determining the overall impact of climate change. Previous research has shown that a warmer climate will increase heavy rainfall and could lead to longer dry periods and a higher risk of floods. All the respondents attested a change in the rainfall. However, impacts that climate change may have had generally on regional rainfall cannot easily be distinguished from natural variations. This makes it difficult to say that it is only climate change that affects changes in rainfall frequency, duration and drought periods.
From the expert interview with people at the Water Resource Management Authority in Nakuru I learned that their data shows that the total amount of rainfall is not decreasing in the Sarambei area, but instead that the area is experiencing more extreme weather events. This is
an important fact to understand. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods have increased in the recent decades and are likely related to human activities. This is the primary way that most people experience climate change in Sarambei. This is consistent with results from several other reports from East Africa. More extreme precipitation caused by climate change creates conflicts in Sarambei. Climate change impact weather patterns and water cycle in dangerous ways that are a trigger for conflicts and can been seen as a security risk.
The Ministry of Water and Irrigation are concerned about that the area of Sarambei do not longer has reliable rainfall. According to them the levels in the Rongai river has gone down due to climate change. The Ministry of Agriculture describe that climate change is really
“biting” on the people in Sarambei and it creates conflicts due to the limited resources. One of the respondents named Sara, a small-scale farmer, describe the situation as:
The resources that we are fighting for are from an impact from the climate. Baringo county used to have reliable rains. Things have changed. Especially the rainfall, it has reduced and is erratic. You cannot predict and you cannot plan. This year and last year is never the same. It does not confirm the long-term average how it used to be. It comes earlier this year, and last year it was delayed. Climate change reduce the amount of water during droughts and then people fight for it (Respondent Sara).
When the data was collected, in April and May 2018, western Kenya was facing major challenges with the heavy rain. Floods destroyed homes and displaced thousands of people, crops and roads were destroyed and many people were killed. Only 20 minutes from Sarambei a dam burst in Solai and at least 50 people died in May. The extreme and heavy rains when the data was collected need to be taken in to consideration in the results of the study. Many of the respondents’ homes were flooded. Most people had access to water, and this could affect the outcome of the answers. If the data would be collected during dry season, instead of rain season, the outcome of the study could possibly be different because of bias.
To say something is caused by climate change is difficult, but based on my result from the twenty people living in the area and experts that I interviewed, climate change is happening and affecting the people in Sarambei in great extents. All the respondents have lived in the area for 20 years or longer, many of them even longer than that. Changes in precipitation over 30 years is a change in the state of the climate and can be identified in Sarambei. Climate change are affecting Sarambei in the way in more extreme weather event with longer dry periods and hectic rain. My conclusion is that it is not the total amount of rain that is
decreasing, but when it is raining, it is raining heavily and the dry periods are getting longer.
This results in that the water levels in the river can be really low during the long dry season, which causes conflicts. The security risks posed by climate change have a number of different consequences like food security and migration in Sarambei, but this study investigates specifically how conflict arises from water scarcity.
4.2 The climate-conflict link - Water security
In this part I will discuss the security risks of limited access to water, where climate change can be one of the causes. In Sarambei, people are dependent on two different rivers – Rongai and Molo river, see Figure 4.
Figure 4. The distance between the two rivers are approximately three km. The lower part of the map illustrates Rongai river and the upper part Molo river. Rongai river is the first source of water for the people living in Sarambei, but when Rongai gets dry the people walk long distance to fetch water from Molo river. Many of the people are living to the east of Rongai, which is the lower part of the map, which means that they can have to walk up to seven km one way to fetch water. The picture also shows a green house in the left corner and a big plantation for sisal in the middle. Source: Google maps
Almost the whole population in Sarambei are dependent on water from the Rongai river and are struggling to find enough water. The District officer in Sarambei described that almost the whole population, 99 % are dependent on the river and according to the Ministry of Water
and Irrigation this figure is 90 %. All the respondents expressed that the river was not seasonal earlier years as it is today. The Rongai river never dried up before. On my follow up question, asking when the Rongai river started to become dry, the majority answered between 5-10 years ago. One respondent, Sam, describe the dependency on the river:
We use the water from Rongai for everything - drinking, cooking and washing. From the knowledge of the expertise, the water from the river is not good for human to drink. You can be affected by cholera, so they were telling us that we should have at least had a tank so you can collect the rainwater. But during dry season there is no rain, so then we always drink the water from the river anyway (Respondent Sam).
Figure 5. The Rongai river is the main source of water and the majority of the people living in Sarambei are dependent on the river. They use it for drinking, cooking, washing, cattle and irrigation to the crops on the farms. To the left a local woman is fetching water after making her daily seven km walk to and back from the Rongai river. To the right cattle is drinking from the river.
The population of Sarambei live in a pastoral area and spend several hours every day walking to collect water to their family and animals. Procuring water creates many other social problems - walking for fetching water keep children out of school, the water often carries diseases and take up precious time for the parents, mostly for the women, that could instead be used to work and earn money. Beyond this, it is also creating conflicts between people.
The lack of access to safe water does create a security risk.
1 in 9 people in the world do not have clean water (WaterAid). In Sarambei, less then 1 of 10 have access to clean water. Accessing water, especially during dry season, is a huge problem in the region. From the expert interview The Ministry of Agriculture explained that they carried out an assessment last year and the result was that the average distance to the closest water point in this area is 5-6 km one way. Some people were even walking up 10 km to the water points and 10 km back. The Ministry of Agriculture express that the access to water is still very poor. Sarambei belongs to Baringo county and is a very undeveloped area where people basically rely on the rivers and the seasonal rain. During dry season, the Rongai river dries up which causes people having to walk seven km from Sarambei to the Molo river. The people living in the lower part of the river walk upstream to fetch water. Esther, 72 years expresses this like:
When the river dries, I struggle to go to the Molo river. In the early years, Rongai river was good. It was water in the river all year around. After some years, climate changed and some people came and settle upstream river Rongai. The flower farms and the greenhouses do irrigation. They take the water and the river dries up. Then I walk to Molo river, seven km one way, every day (Respondent Esther).
As previously mentioned, according to a majority of the respondents, the Rongai river was not seasonal before and it changed between five to ten years ago. Before that, the people living in Sarambei had water in the Rongai during the whole year. In the last couple of years the water levels have decreased. Again, it is difficult to say that climate change is the only source for the water level decreasing in Sarambei during dry season, the water levels depends on several causes. Lack of water in Sarambei during dry seasons could be explained by climate change, but is also affected by many other variables. Climate change could definitely be one, but irrigation from farms and the increasing population are also affecting the water levels. More people share the same water and respondents mentioned this in their interview, for instance Chief Peter:
The increasing population causing increased consumption of water and increasing of activities like farming and irrigation has depleted the river (Respondent Peter).
During rainy season many people try to collect the rainwater, but because of shortage of water tanks, not enough rainwater to sufficiently sustain the total water consumption in the area can be collected. Below is a typical answer from Nicolas that reflects the situation in Sarambei on
It is very little water in Sarambei. We depend on rainwater. We waste a lot of water during rainy season because we cannot collect the water. When it comes to dry season, you find Sarambei under conflict and problems (Respondent Nicolas).
To conclude, the people in Sarambei are experiencing water stress, especially under the longer dry season. Access to safe water is a prerequisite for security, human health, environmental sustainability, and economic prosperity, and is specially addressed in goal number six of the SDGs. Local conflicts around natural resources, in this case the water in Sarambei, may be triggered or exacerbated by climate change. The economy of the study area is highly dependent on natural resources and therefore vulnerable to climate change.
4.3 From climate change to conflict
Climate change is a key factor for several conflicts, especially between tribes. (Respondent Emma)
During dry season it is a lot of conflicts. When you hear someone take all the water from the river and you are using exactly the same water, there is something you feel - something not good. (Respondent John)
People downstream are traveling upstream with machetes to find out why the river is dry downstream.
Then the people are demonstrating and the government sometimes intervene. The flower farmers are using the police to control the flow of water. (Respondent Joseph)
How does climate change affect the risk of conflict through water scarcity? This part will investigate the security risks of climate change in Sarambei and will try to answer the research question. Water insecurity has turned into local conflicts in Sarambei. As the report from UNEP described in 2015, increasing demand for natural resources, in this case water, combined with environmental degradation and climate change will serve to intensify competitive pressures between communities. A common reply when the respondents were asked to describe conflicts caused by water scarcity:
It is a lot of conflict that is caused by the lack of water, especially during the dry season. When the rainfall is minimal people are fighting for the water. When the water levels are low there is a high intensity of conflicts. (Respondent Denis)
When the respondents were asked about conflicts caused by climate change many of them decided to talk about that the water problems in the community have led to conflicts between
people. Water conflict was often the first thing the respondent were thinking about when asking about the security risks of climate change.
Water is an incredible source of conflicts. Linked to other things such as increasing population and poverty, lack of water can trigger tipping points in areas where there are already great political tensions, of which Kenya actually is such an example. There lies many latent political tensions under the surface and sometimes they reappear. And if these hidden tensions exist, then it can be rumoured that people are stealing water, and whether it's true or not, it may trigger a perhaps bigger conflict with far-reaching demonstrations with police violence. Water is a potential trigger for major social problems. (Ulf Björnholm)
During the dry season, many parts of the Rongai river dries up, including the part that is flowing through Sarambei. The problem many respondents in Sarambei brought up was that some people, factories and farmers block the river for irrigation to their farms so the lower parts of the river do not get access to water from the river.
Some years ago Rongai was always full of water. It was not a seasonal river then. It came when some dirty politicians were being bribed. Some people, like the flower farms have a lot of water. When we go there, I went there with the community once, we brought machetes and marungo and they faced us with tear gas. People are using irrigation so much in the upper area and that is why we do not have water in the river. (Respondent Paulin)
Farms that use irrigation create conflicts between local people and farmers when the river has low water levels. The farms block the river upstream to have water for their plantation all year around. The local people downstream then have no water and need to walk long distance to Molo river to fetch water. One respondent expressed her frustration over this situation and opposed it:
When the river are about to dry, maybe it is a not nature that cause that. People that do agriculture, block the river from upstream. The river never flows down. It is a conflict of interest. People upstream tend to use that water to block the rivers. So that water can be used at their farms. Examples are those flower farms. Big companies they can close the river. Those who are in the lower side do not get water (Respondent Joseph).
The limited water is triggering conflicts. Many of the conflict arise when people are using the water from the river for irrigation purposes. It is a friction between those who are using it for
question here is for which reasons the river Rongai dries up and what it is that causes this conflict? Climate change could be a reason in form of changing weather events and longer dry periods. Increasing population could be another reason. Factories and farmers blocking the river for irrigation also seem to be contributing. From my understanding, I believe it is a combination of all of these factors. As previous research has shown, the connection between climate change and security is a combination of multiple risks that leads to conflicts. The experts at the Ministry of Water and Irrigation describes the problem with the dry river:
Is it that the river gets dry, or is it that people block the river and it gets dry? I have never understood that.
If you go upstream there is water and downstream it is dry. The reason is that upstream block the river. So are we saying it is dry or should we say that it is getting blocked? That is the problem. These two rivers do not dry completely; people block the rivers and destroying the entire flow of the water. That is the problem. The level of course goes down because of the changing climate. If the laws were followed, there would be more water during dry season (Ministry of Water and Irrigation).
During dry season and droughts it is illegal to use irrigation pipe leading systems from the rivers. Farms that are accused of illegal water tapping in the Rongai river, has been noted in local media. The majority of respondents brought up that the flower farms have illegal water channels tapped from river Rongai. When farms divert large volumes of water from the river, local people and small-scale farmers downstream have no access to water, and that results in conflicts.
To conclude climate change seems to be one of the causes of water scarcity in the study area.
There may exist indirect linkages between climate change and the risk of conflict. Factors that play a role in increasing conflict risk may be reinforced by climate change in Sarambei. As mentioned earlier, and important to understand in the context of security risks in Sarambei, is that other factors like illegal water irrigation seems also to decrease the water levels in Sarambei and this does also create conflicts.
4.4 Characteristics of climate change conflicts in Sarambei
Water is a shared, precious resource and a source for conflict. Conflicts triggered by lack of water are expressed in several ways. This part will try to answer which groups or actors that are participating in the conflict and the characteristics of the conflict. The respondents describe different types of conflicts. It could be a conflict between two people who are neighbours, between small-scale farmers, between people using irrigation and not, between
pastoralists and farmers, local people and larger farms and in-between families. In earlier years the water was enough for the needs for all different actors.
It is a competition about the water. I rather sabotage for you, so I get the water. We are destroying for each other in the community so that I can benefit the most. (Respondent Johnny)
This quote can clearly be linked to Elinor Ostrom’s research about common-pool resources. It is difficult to exclude or limit users once the water in Rongai is provided, and one person’s consumption of resource units makes those units unavailable to others.
4.4.1 Demonstrations
The water scarcity in Sarambei has lead to demonstrations against farmers that use irrigation, both small-scale farmers and larger flower farms. Farms cut the water supply from people downstream along the river. Residents of Baringo sub-county, including Sarambei, are fighting against the farmers that are subverting river water into their farms. Here I encountered a different meaning for the word demonstration. My view on demonstration is that a crowd of people is gathering to publicly express their opinion. In Sarambei, the respondents view on demonstrations had a very different meaning. Many respondents describe the purpose of the demonstrations were to destroy for each other, create mass actions against the larger farms in the area and to a call for help from the government.
When we are demonstrating, everything we found along the water, we take it, especially generators and water pumps. (Respondent Denis)
The demonstrations are of various types. Sometimes people get together and destroy water pumps and generators along the river owned by small-scale farmers. Other times, people organize themselves in larger groups and blocks the main and rural roads. Sometimes the people are burning tires to get the attention from the authorities. In Sarambei the people often close the bridge during this types of demonstrations. People organize themselves and block the roads. The immediate reaction is that the police will come and remove that barriers used to redirect the water to the farms using irrigation.
In January 2017, in the middle of the dry season, one of the larger conflicts was triggered. A farm upstream had blocked the river stopping people living in the lower part from having
access to water. The Rongai was empty and people got desperate to find water. People from the lower part got together and demonstrated against the farm. From my understanding, going to the flower farm by themselves were too dangerous because the guards at the farms were armed, so instead the people demonstrated to get help from the police officers. All roads along the whole Rongai river were blocked by local people, which had gotten together to highlight the issue of lack of water. When the people blocked the roads the police came and threw tear gas against the people blocking the road and the community answer was to throw stones at the police. This created a conflict between local people and the police. Many respondents described the demonstrations as being violent and fearful. Most of the time these larger demonstrations that involves many people lead to water flowing in Rongai again. When the police have intervened the farms unblock the rivers, but only for a short period of time.
Many respondents described it, as after a week, it was the same problem with the water supply again. The farms blocked the river again. The demonstrations are not a sustainable solution on the conflict of access to water. Maggie describe the situation when she demonstrated against the farms upstream as:
We have been demonstrating many times. Then they open the river and when we come down they close it again. You cannot do anything. The time we reach home they close it again. It is a challenge with the government. We talked to the district officer and we went there together. It was the same - it is authority from above (Respondent Maggie).
During dry season this year, 2018, the Rongai river dried up and many people wanted to organize a bigger demonstration like the demonstrations the years before. Because of different political interest, the people along Rongai could not unite. The years before, it was an older man, often described by the respondents as being a hero, courageous and a great leader that organized and united the people about the lack of water. He has since died and people are having problems to organize and trust each other. It seems like having a strong leader in these types of demonstrations is vital for it to be successful.
The Ministry of Agriculture in Mogotio described the demonstrations like this:
Mass action is the best way to solve an issue. When people do a demonstration it is the best way of communication to the authorities. When the authority fails to supply the right to the people, then people are being forced to demonstrate. They block the roads, so the authorities can listen. They intervene. The authorities are listening for the cause and then they open the river. The moment you block the main road,
that is the best way to communicate with the authorities so that they can take action. It means, unblocking the rivers, they can do that. But after some time, when everything gone down, you see they are blocking the rivers again. Demonstrations are the best way to communicate.
It is quite remarkable to learn that an institution of the government promotes violent demonstrations as the best solution for solving these kinds of issues.
Scarce resources and worsening livelihood conditions create conflicts. Everyone wants to benefit in different ways from the water from the river. During the droughts in November 2017, a farm blocked the river with sands sacks to subvert the water flow to their farm. People living downstream, including a public school, did not have access to water. The reaction from the people downstream was to walk up to 45 km to complain to the district officer. One respondent described the situation as being violent and that people wanted to kill the owner of the farm.
I have been demonstrating many times. It is intense. People are saying they are demonstrating but in real sense the use it for coverage to do their illegal things - crime and destroying. The people get upset and some people fight back, but most of the times it is peacefully organized. We demonstrated along the river, start from downstream and come upstream. It was some people that were targeted, especially people from outside. Specifically people who do irrigation, these were the targets. (Respondent Denis)
When weapons are made more available to the people it will result in more violent conflicts.
According to Water Resources Management Authority (WRMA), one of the main reasons that they opened the office in the region was because of violent conflicts caused by the lack of water. WRMA described the situation as there have been conflicts caused by water that have resulted in injuries and deaths. The respondents told me that most of the time the conflict was peaceful, but in some interviews the respondents described the conflict as violent, especially when the police intervened with tear gas and shooting with their guns up in the air.
The situation about water security in Sarambei can be connected to previous research that find a strong relationship between the supply for natural resources like water and the occurrence of conflicts. When a conflict occurs because limited water supply many people in Sarambei get together and demonstrate against the farm that uses irrigation.
4.4.2 Complexity of climate change
This further illustrates the consequences and complexity of climate change. The water sector is particularly prone to corruption, and the world's poor are usually the ones who suffer the consequences. According to corruption perceptions index 2017 Kenya are ranked 143 of 180 countries (Transparency international). The majority of the respondents brought up “the dirty water politics” and corruption in the interviews. The widespread corruption in Kenya is a large challenge making it harder to solve the water scarcity problem. The occurring conflicts caused by water scarcity are fuelled by the wide spread existence of corruption in the authorities.
The flower farms have dams and they are actually protected by the police. So if you go there and are trying to open the walls, we are told that they have weapons and will shoot us. The flower farms are using the police to control the flow of water. The police are actually the one who is against the local people.
The police are protecting the flower farms. (Respondent Sara)
According to a majority the respondents, corruption exists and affects the access to water. The respondent Pauline describe that the government and police officers had received money from the larger farms for permission to block the rivers. Another respondent Mary describe that one of the flower farm belongs to the former presidents family. When the case has gone to court, every time they went to the parliament nothing happens because the son of the former president is involved. Corruption contributes to the failure to enforce regulations and laws meant to protect water sources from discriminatory outcomes in water flows and irrigation patterns in favour of the flower farms.
During the interviews with the different institutions in Kenya this was definitely the most sensitive question to ask. The Ministry of Water and Irrigation have their own perspective on water corruption:
Rongai river is completely dry during dry season and we know that the people downstream have no access to water. That is corruption. We cannot deny on that there is no corruption. Corruption is affecting this. When we have a problem with water, of course we discuss because we should share the resources.
But when someone is taking everything, then it is something wrong and it is corruption (The Ministry of Water and Irrigation).
According to my interview with The Water Resources Management Authority that is responsible for the permit, they deny any corruption. The district officer who has the main responsible of security in the region describe the situation as:
Flower farm consume the water. It is against the law because the water is limited to human and animals.
The law is on paper, the people who are going to follow the law are a human. They are being taken to court. In January this year it happened. On a daily basis we arrest people for illegal irrigation. The flower farm normally takes water during the night and then we have no evidence, but of course they did something. Corruption is one of the main problems in the water sector (Respondent District officer).
4.4.3 Conflict in the family
Conflicts affect rural communities in multiple ways and women are often affected by it the most. Access to clean water is crucial for women's rights, education, good health and eradicating poverty. The consequences of lack of clean water strike hardest against women and girls that affect their safety. Having access to clean water affects all aspects of a person's life. Many woman and girls risk their personal security when they are forced to walk long distances in unsafe areas to search for water.
There are a lot of conflicts, especially when it comes to the water. That is when domestic violence happens. (Respondent Caroline)
Lack of water raises domestic conflict in families in Sarambei. Several women chose to address this during their interview and it is thus important to mention when talking about the security risks of climate change in form of water scarcity. Some of the respondents’ found it difficult to talk about conflict in-between the family, especially the men. Considering the traditional way to look at women, it is her job to fetch the water. Majority of the female respondents were the one in the family that were responsible to fetch water. To walk up to 20 km a day to fetch water removes time from doing other things. The whole family, are still expecting the woman to do all the other things even if she walked for five hours to collect water. A few respondents describe that the husband gets upset when there is no water and several of them mention that the husband have physically abused them in these situations.
Water is a duty for the woman. They are the one who are supposed to take care of the home. They are the one who go and fetch water. If she has a job, she needs to do it anyhow. I don't care about her job, she
need to fetch water. The time I am coming back, it should be water there, and otherwise I get angry.
(Respondent Denis)
4.5 Addressing the security risks of climate change
The Rongai river dries up because there are no regulations (Ministry of Water and Irrigation)
Lack of water is perceived as connected to a lack of regulations. As previously discussed in the theoretical framework the risk of increased conflict trends in Africa is a result of many complex reasons. Climate change could be one, and corruption, weak regulations and inadequate governance will also increase the risk of conflict over heavy dependency on natural resources. There is no doubt that the Rongai river needs stricter regulations to reach a more sustainable use of the water. Monitoring and oversight mechanisms are key to ensuring the enforcement of regulations (UNDP 2011). It requires enforcing adequate and dissuasive sanctions, as deterrence must be supported by effective implementation of regulations (CMI:
13).
To legally pump water from the rivers in Kenya the farm needs to apply for a permit. A farm are allowed to pump maximum 20 000 litres per day from the Rongai river. From a farmer’s perspective it is not a sufficient amount of water. According to the Water Act a farm are only allowed to collect the overflow of water. There is no permit to pump water from the river during the dry season. WRMA are responsible for the permits and licences to collect water in the rivers. The Metrological department decide when the dry season starts, when a farm no longer are allowed to do any irrigation along the rivers. In Sarambei farms pump water illegally, which creates conflicts.
We came with an agreement when we should pump the water. We agreed on particular days, at least 2-3 days a week we were not allowed to pump the water and use the generators. Another issue is that people are pumping during the night, especially when the government came in. anybody who were found pumping water, they took their generators in March this year. I used to pump at night as well.
(Respondent Amy)
With help from WRMA, the chiefs - who are responsible for security in the villages - and the district officer the community sometimes agree on a schedule to manage the water between the local people, small-scale farmers and pastoralist. During specific days or hours farmers are allowed to pump water from the river. The mission is that the river always should have
