Energy, Environment and Transportation An Actor-Role Network Analysis of the World Energy Outlook 1977-2016

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Felicia Söderqvist

Energy, Environment and Transportation

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Abstract

Söderqvist, F. 2019. Energy, Environment and Transportation: An Actor-Role Network Analysis of the World Energy Outlook 1977-2016

This thesis explores how energy and environmental issues have been presented in the transporta-tion sector over time in World Energy Outlook (WEO) publicatransporta-tions; the flagship publicatransporta-tion of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The thesis covers WEO publications from the first pub-lication of 1977 up to 2016 (with the exception of WEO 1982). The data was extracted through the aid of interpretive content analysis, focusing on the transport sector. Energy and Environ-mental issues within the context of transportation were then discussed as to their roles and forms of action they were ascribed throughout the publications. Actor-network theory was used as a theoretical framework to map and showcase how these roles and actions conditioned and con-nected to each other. The results of the study show that energy has had a tendency to be divided into the camps of fuels that are either solutions or problems. The exceptions are biofuels, which stand out as fuels that are both solutions and problematic. The environmental issues are solved and caused through energy use, and in 1977, environmental consideration were presented as ob-stacles to energy security. In 1993 global warming and emissions have changed into being major policy concern. Pollution, congestion, dust, noise, and related health issues are added to the fray as time proceeds, and so are more forms of energy for solutions. Goals and interests showcased in the publications are shown to conflict with others, while energy efficiency as a solution has emerged as a solution to both global warming and energy security. The transport sector starts of as framed more as an area or space where environmental issues take place and solutions are im-plemented, however, increasing motorisation of the sector and traffic and its role as a major emitter are later added as active aspects of the conditioning of the sector and in offsetting the solutions. Regional cases are used to exemplify the issues and solutions, with a major focus on OECD contexts, and technological renewal emerges early on as a mayor pathway in solving the environmental issues, through the support of consumers. However, the major issues still remain the same as in 1993.

Keywords: Energy Security, Environment, Transport Sector, Energy, Policy, Actor-Network Theory, Interpretive Content Analysis, Role, Actors, Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook (WEO) Master’s thesis in Global Environmental History (45 credits), supervisor: Anneli Ekblom, De-fended and approved Spring Term 2019-06-19

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1. Introduction

“The closer human activity comes to the limit of the earth’s ability to support that activity, the more apparent and unresolvable the trade-offs become. [...] In general modern society has not learned to recognize and deal with these trade-offs. The apparent goal of the present world system is to produce more people with more (food, material goods, clean air and water) for each person.” (Meadows et al. 1972, p.86)

The above quote is taken from the book The Limits to Growth in which the authors review the situation of earth’s finite resources and what this means for our societies; based as they are on ever expanding population- and consumption growth. Meadows et al. 1972 were the first to pre-sent calculations and data on the material and environmental limits to such behaviour for our long-term survival (see Hernes 2012, p.75).

The environment has become a hot topic in international politics, and is a major aspect of global governance. This is not a new concern as there have been prior attempts to this to regulate and conserve natural resources and limit pollution at a local level. However, in the second half of the 20th century, consciousness about the environment and its linkages to transnational issues took shape. Problems like global warming (caused by emissions from human industry) affect the whole planet, and are of major concern for global governance in many sectors. A number of agencies and organisations have been implemented over the years with these specific issues in mind, and it could be argued that environmental issues have been globalised; meaning that envi-ronmental concerns have now become increasingly less locally bound (Vogler 2014, p.343). Among the first such concerns to be realised were the increase in urban pollution and noise from transportation due to a growing amount of vehicles (Proost & Van Dender 2012). On the envi-ronmental front, the successful reduction of transport sector emissions has been minor at best (Kaijser & Kander 2013). Providing fuel for the transport sector today is also one of the major challenges facing many countries in terms of energy consumption. This is linked to the sector’s dependence on oil and the reason why it is possible to label this an issue of transport fuel secu-rity (Werbos 2009, pp.282.f).

Fuel security in the transport sector is part of a global issue of energy security emerging during the second half of the 20th century, relating to both limited resources and environmental impact (Cherp & Jewell 2011). Our societies’ reliance on certain technologies has resulted in an energy shift towards reliance on fossil fuels, predominantly oil, as an energy source (Allen 2012; Smil 2013; Wilson & Grubler 2015; Fouquet 2015). A number of realisations have since then come to light; fossil fuels dependency creates national insecurity and unstable global politics as fossil fuels are finite resources that are going to run out, and they also have immense environmental impact (Hellström & Rydevik 2012, p.79). As such energy use and environmental issues are linked to each other.

Energy access came to the fore in the political agenda during the 1970s. In 1973, the oil prices increased exponentially, resulting in what has been labelled the oil crises of 1973/74. The crises made access to oil problematic for consumer countries and in many ways served as a wakeup call (Hernes 2012; Wärneryd, Hallin & Hultman 2002, pp.97.ff). As a response, the International

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nate responses to oil supply issues. This ambition resulted in the agency’s first publication in 1977, the World Energy Outlook, which remains the agency’s flagship publication until today (IEA 2019). The agency and its focus has expanded since 1977 however, and the IEA now re-search all kinds of energy issues (no longer primarily for oil) in order to formulate suggestions for policy directions and implementations to help solve problems related to energy. The IEA describe themselves as being “the heart” of energy discussions, predominantly through their en-ergy analysis via the publications of the organisation (IEA 2018a; IEA 2018b). In this sense, the agency frames itself as an important actor in energy discussions, and their publications are an important medium in this role, as it summarises the research of the OECD/IEA and presents this knowledge outwards.

For the IEA, by framing knowledge in a particular way, it is possible to affect where and how authority is to be located. Considering the pressure on solving energy shortages in international politics and how they relate to environmental concerns, knowledge of such solutions carries a heavy political weight. Such linkages between knowledge production as carriers of power have been explored by many researchers. Michel Foucault is famous for among all the notion that power and knowledge are reproductive; power is determined by knowledge, however power also frame what is to be perceived as knowledge (Foucault 2000; see also discussion in Barker 1998, pp.25.ff). This is connected to the use of language in so called ‘discourses of truth’; the stories of how the world works in which people find themselves in. These narratives of knowledge or truth are pressed upon us already from the start and shape the way people act and think. As such peo-ple become carriers of these narratives; the means through which power is expressed and repro-duced (Mansfield 2000, pp.54.f). There is intention behind the exercise of power as things are achieved through whatever means that are deemed as acceptable according to the rules that peo-ple are knowledgeable about (Wodak & Meyer 2016).

How then has the IEA presented knowledge concerning energy and environmental issues since the formation of the agency, and how has this presentation changed? In this thesis I am going to analyse how the agency has positioned itself and its knowledge in relation to energy and envi-ronmental issues in the WEO publications ranging from 1977-2016. However, the scope of the WEO is enormous (about 13 000 pages). After reading thorough the material, and broadly as-sessing and categorising, I decided to limit the analyses presented here to the transport sector. The transport sector plays a major part in environmental projections within these publications. Each publication discusses various sectors and the transport sector is ever present as a major growing concern (see WEO 1977-2016). As discussed above, transports was a major issue from the very beginning of the environmental global policy debate (see Proost & Van Dender 2012), making this a key area to explore.

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1.1. Scope and Research Aims of Study

The IEA produces a number of publications, many on a yearly basis. There is thus a lot of source material to go through if one seeks to study how the IEA as a whole frame certain positions or subject matters. This study analyses the publications released between 1977 and 2016 (with the exception of WEO 1982); 24 in total. These are all the available publications between these years. There are also publications from 2017 and 2018 as well, however these are not yet freely accessible. I will therefore limit myself to the WEO publications before these years. Since the WEO is the flagship publication of the agency (IEA 2019), and it is within the WEO that the major points of the agency are publicised, I also decided to focus the study on this one publica-tion. The WEO alone contains a vast amount of data; the first range around 70 pages while the later lean more towards 700 pages. For the aims of this study and for making the data manage-able, further synthesis and selection was therefore necessary. After reading through the reports a number of times and making a broad classification and thematisation, I eventually decided upon the transport sector as a focus. As explained in the Introduction, the transport sector is a relevant field of study, and here it serves as a means to narrow down the information being handled. Sec-tors were featured to some extent in all the WEO publications, but the transport sector has been presented as of increasingly acute importance over the years (WEO 1977-2016). This shift made the sector stand out as a focus of particular interest for a more detailed analysis.

1.2. Research Questions

The focus of this study is then to analyse how energy and environmental issues are presented and positioned as actors within the transport sector by the IEA. This can in due turn provide valuable information as to how an international governmental body like the IEA frame issues (and

power/knowledge discourses) around them and how this presentation has changed through time. Based on the overall research aims, I have formulated main research questions with some sub-questions that will guide this research:

How have energy and environmental issues been presented and positioned within the transport sector in WEO publications between 1977-2016?

 Which forms of energy are presented?

 How are forms of actions/roles ascribed/available for energy?

 Which environmental issues are presented?

 How are environmental issues ascribed actions/roles?

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2. Background

As shown already in Chapter 1, energy and environmental issues are strongly interlinked. To discuss just how these interlinkages relate to the IEA, I first need to give an historical back-ground to the context of why organisations like the OECD and the IEA were created. The his-torical background also allows us to understand better and how the roles of the OECD and the IEA have changed as the result of global politics and raising global concerns.

2.1. From Oil Reliance to Oil Reduction

The industrial revolution, starting sometime during the 18th century at various times and loca-tions in Europe, can be argued to have spearheaded our modern technological shifts and use of energy (Allen 2012; Smil 2013; Wilson & Grubler 2015; Fouquet 2015). Inventions such as the steam engine and the combustion engine meant that certain forms of energy (coal and oil) were put to use at a never before seen scale. Also, fewer people could through these engines be in con-trol of much greater amounts of power than before. The time before the industrialisation was in comparison an ‘organic economy’, featuring raw organic materials that required vast amounts of space. The 19th century, by comparison, meant a shift towards fossil fuels (Kander, Malanima & Warde 2013). This has been argued to have meant a complete regime shift for how society ac-quired power (Wilson & Grubler 2015). In the early 20th century there was some experimentation with the electrification of the railroads in Europe (Lieke 2018).

Coal had been increasingly used centuries before the industrial revolution. The shortage of fire-wood combined with technologies, that made the extraction of coal easier, meant that coal de-mand increased exponentially already in 16th century England and France, with the rest of Europe lagging somewhat behind. During the 19th century, it was the primary fuel and labour was increasingly organised around coal production. The two World Wars that were fought in 1914-1918 and 1939-1945 meant that coal resources were pushed to their limits. After the wars, the railroad saw a shift from steam to diesel, and natural gas and oil became the dominant fuels in household heating systems (Daemen 2004). Most European countries went through an oil transition, as the oil market expanded – which meant that oil was put to use with few substitutes at an increasing rate in more areas (Kander, Malanima & Warde 2013). This shift had begun already prior to World War I, as the British navy transitioned from using coal to oil. Access to oil was also a major reason as to why Germany invaded the Soviet Union during the war (Kohl 2004). Already in the 1920s, there was a perceived risk that oil could be running out and experi-ments with alternative fuels and technologies were incentivised. These fears were momentarily put to rest through new oil findings however (Rodriguez-Padilla 2004). At the dawn of the indus-trial period, most countries were forced to rely on imported oil resources from poor countries, which was the basis for global security concerns throughout the 20th century (Kohl 2004). For the transport sector, the fact that the car and combustion engine were being brought to the market simultaneously was a major reason for that oil managed to maintain its major role in society (Giebelhaus 2004).

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that many countries were importing oil from the OPEC countries (The Organisation of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries), who at the time dominated the market (Kohl 2004).

When getting to the years of the creation of OECD and IEA, in the 1970s Europe (at least) had experienced a shift towards all the more increasing oil reliance. For instance, in Sweden the de-pendency on imported oil had grown from 60% in 1939, to 73% in 1973. 1973 is also notable for another reason; that was when oil prices increased exponentially as a result of the so called oil

crises in 1973/1974. What then were the causes of the oil crises? The crises are commonly

at-tributed to a conflict where, in short, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel, starting the Yom Kippur War. The Soviet Union sent aid to Egypt and Syria, while the United States supported Israel. Many Arabic countries were organised in OPEC; the major exporters of oil. Using the “oil weapon”, turning the conflict into an economic one, OPEC increased oil prices with 70% in pro-test of external support for Israel. The sudden spiking oil prices resulted in a supply crisis in oil consuming countries (Hernes 2012, p.75).

This event has been called an ‘oil shock’ (Hernes 2012, p.75); as oil suddenly became signifi-cantly more expensive and hard to get by. This meant a sudden focus for countries in securing energy resources and trying to reduce their oil reliance (Cherp & Jewell 2011). As already dis-cussed in Chapter 1 it was the oil crises that ultimately led to the creation of the IEA, the publi-cations that will be analysed here, and the purpose of the IEA was originally directly related to oil supply issues. The crises and changed policies in the aftermath of the crises led to a slight decrease in the dependency of oil. By 1999 for example, Sweden’s oil dependency had gone down to 42% as a result of such measures (Hernes 2012; Wärneryd, Hallin & Hultman 2002, pp.97.ff).

2.2. The Environmental Alarm

Several events and changing mindsets during the 20th century have been acknowledged by re-searchers as likely causes for our changing outlook of the World around us. Modernity-scholars like Berman (2012) and Giddens (1990) have argued that people’s worldviews and lived spaces started to expand sometime during the 16th century to feature more than just the place where they were born and raised. This phenomenon also echoes in the concept of Globalisation that is often used to describe the increasing interconnection and mobility of people and commodities across the globe today. The actions of people on one side of the globe affect people on the other (Sparke 2013). The impact of globalisation in the modern World is what Giddens (1990) identifies as an important aspect of the relocation of the power to shape the future. And yet, the invention, use and spread of for instance the nuclear bomb, the pesticide DDT and the realisation of how these destructively affect the environment and the ecosystems we depend on have also given rise to public concerns for our long-term survival. Through new technologies we can now also observe our planet from space, walk on the moon and potentially travel to other planets. We begin to re-alise how small and fragile a system our world might be; a view that sociologist Gudmund Her-nes has labelled ‘ecocentrism’ (HerHer-nes 2012; Andersson & Grandin 2012, p.16). The nuclear bomb has been argued to have greatly affected world politics in this direction. The concept of

MAD (mutually assured destruction) has been used to describe that countries are discouraged to

engage in wars with nuclear weapons since the cost in environmental damage from using them would be vast and essentially entail the obliteration of all warring parties and civilisation as we know it (Robock & Toon 2012, p.67). In 1947 the editors of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists invented the infamous Doomsday Clock to describe how close civilisation was to annihilation through nuclear warfare during the Cold War (Moore 1996, p.17).

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19th century. These issues could however be averted through medicine or other measures. The invention of the nuclear bomb and its devastating effects in Hiroshima and Nagasaki meant that there were now ways of impacting our surroundings for generations to come at a much greater scale. Among all, this was connected to the fear of cancer alongside and as a result of radioactive effects of nuclear explosions, and environmental movements have used cancer as a metaphor for the effects of environmental degradation (Radkau 2008, p.266). The realisation of how fragile humanity and the environmental system we depend on are have thus been framed in terms of that these are issues to fear for the sake of humanity’s wellbeing.

Today most people live with the realisation that we risk running out of or destroying resources that support life as we know it. The Industrial Revolution starting in the mid 18th century is often brought forth as an important milestone of this transition. This period brought with it significant changes in how people lived and worked. It brought with it an increase in production and con-sumption as well as large amounts of emissions and waste. It affected parts of life that people at the time did not consider or were unable to predict (see Meadows et al 1972; Kander, Malanima & Warde 2013). This change can be compared with what Anthony Giddens (1990) has labelled ‘the juggernaut of modernity’; meaning that people lost control over where they are headed, leaving decisions in the hands of authority while people themselves have lost control over their futures. In other words, the future has become uncertain.

As broader concerns on environmental pollution and health hazards was building up the envi-ronmental effects of burning fossil fuels This issue had been pointed out already in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, who predicted that fossil fuel consumption would lead to global warming. (Hellström & Rydevik 2012 p.85). The scale of damage our actions can impact our planet be-came an increasing concern, and for the latter half of the 20th century, environmental issues such as global warming and resulting climate change can be argued to have acquired a more and more prominent role in international politics and in research (See Giddens 2011).

In 1988, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) was created by the United Nations to handle information concerning the risks of anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change. As a scientific body the IPCC is responsible for producing reports featuring proper responses to cli-mate change issues. The message of these reports has been clear from the start - our future will feature a warmer planet with melting glaciers, rising oceans and more extreme weather as a re-sult of climate change caused by human kind (Hernes 2012, p.21).

Part of my approach is identifying what and how the WEO refers to and present so called envi-ronmental issues. What I mean when I refer to envienvi-ronmental issues or issues stem from the re-alisations of what negatively affects the world or environments around use. As demonstrated in this chapter, the awareness of how humans affect the world around them and how fragile the world may be has become a major concern for international policy making. The ‘issues’ ac-knowledged as harmful for life as we know it have been global warming/climate change, emis-sions, pollution, various health hazards and inventions such as the nuclear bomb (Giddens & Sutton 2013; Hellström & Rydevik 2012 p.85; Hernes 2012; Radkau 2008, p.266). When going through the material, I will therefore be looking for presented problems akin to these and they will be listed beneath the category of environmental issues.

2.3. The Formation of the OECD and the IEA

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The OECD and IEA describe their background(s) in the following manner. In the late 1940’s the European continent had been recently ravaged by World War II. The Marshall Plan (financed by the United States) was launched in 1948 in order to deal with the reconstruction and foster long-term peace. The predecessor of the OECD, The Organisation for European Economic

Coopera-tion (OEEC) was established to execute this plan. The organisaCoopera-tion was later reformatted when

the United States and Canada decided to join the organisation. In a convention, held in December 1960, the new organisation – The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) - was created, which was realised in practice in 1961 (OECD 2018a).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) was subsequently founded in 1974. Its purpose back then was to aid countries around the world to coordinate responses to oil supply issues, in the face of the crises in 1973/1974 (IEA 2018a). The IEA is still labelling itself an autonomous agency whose purpose was and is to ensure energy security and research analysis among its members to promote collective coordination and responses (WEO 2016). Today the agency re-search a vast number of energy-related issues, and its original focus on oil has broadened, as discussed in the introduction, to include various energy sources with emphasis on policy solu-tions and measures of related issues. The organisation today has four major focuses: energy secu-rity, environmental awareness, economic development, and engagement worldwide (IEA 2018). On this note, the IEA have major five aims: secure reliable energy access, promote sustainable energy policies as well as economic and environmental security, the improvement of transpar-ency of international markets, promote global cooperation of energy technologies, and finding solutions to international energy issues. All of these aims are predominantly carried out through research and analysis (WEO 2016). It should however be noted that the IEA, as part of the OECD, has no power to command others. The OECD can merely offer recommendations for member states, which the members have no formal obligation to obey (OECD 2019).

2.4. Overview of the World Energy Outlook

There is plenty of research being published by the IEA agency in various publications, but as I have already explained the major one is the World Energy Outlook (WEO); called the “flagship” of the IEA by the agency itself (IEA 2018a). The WEO began being published in 1977, and has been an annual publication since 1998 (IEA 2018b). Before that, the publications were more irregular and sporadic. There was one in 1977, 1982, and one each year from 1993-1996. Also, though there are records of the publication from 1982 (IEA 2018c), the publication in itself has been difficult to obtain. After being in contact with the WEO publishers, I was initially informed that it could not be found. Thus publication is not available in digital format. At the end I found it via a library in physical format, but too late for it to be included here. Lacking a detailed analysis of the publication in question, it is in part included via a commentary by Kline & Wey-ant (1983). This commentary is also connected to previous reports however, why it will be dis-cussed more thoroughly in the coming chapter. WEO 2017 and WEO 2018 will not be used in this thesis either since their access are still restricted by pay-walls and limited locations. This study is therefore restricted to the publications that are freely available in digital formats from 1977-2016 (a total of 24 publications). This reflects the publications that as I embark on this study are the easiest to access in digital formats. As such there is a point in looking into these publications specifically, as the presentations included in these are those that are more accessible for readers in general. Also, as mentioned in the introduction and in this study’s research aims, a further limitation is the focus on the transport sector to limit the material being studied even fur-ther.

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the effects of variables into account for the sake of policy making (IEA 2018b). The WEMs are updated every year and currently produces scenarios based on sectors and regions. Various re-gions are brought to attention throughout the publications. The data added to this model is mostly produced by the IEA. Currently the model projects energy futures in relation to global, regional, technological, environmental, energy access and investment aspects (IEA 2017). As such the WEM model has changed continuously, as has the included scenarios. The model itself is not going to be analysed here in detail, but they are important to mention as the basis of the WEO aims.

Regional cases occur not just in the current WEM model; such cases have been part of the publi-cations from the beginning. This is among all confirmed in the upcoming analyses of this thesis. As many of the WEO publications showcase so called regional cases or focuses, their inclusion is an important part of the question of who environmental concerns refers to. Some publications feature a major regional case with several chapters dedicated towards the case in question, while others are directed towards specific subjects. With the focus on the transport sector, it is not al-ways that the regional chapters present aspects of interest to this study. However, there are still often mentions of regions in relation to certain issues, solutions or subject matters spread out inside the publications. Since this ascribes certain characteristics to the regional cases in question these traits are worth pointing out and discuss.

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3. Previous Research

A major aspect to keep in mind when going through the WEO publications and the IEA is that they are the major sources on themselves, meaning that critical evaluations of their findings are rare. What do exist are comments on a few of the publications.

3.1. Comments on the IEA

As discussed, there are not much material based on critically reviewing the WEO and the publi-cation contents. However, a few researchers have made comments on a couple of the publica-tions in question. Kline and Weyant (1983) have commented particularly on the WEO from 1982. In their comments they are critical to the publication’s conclusions as they find them in-complete. The Kline and Weyant comment then aim to complete the conclusions in the publica-tion concerning oil imports.

Other examples are in connection to WEO 2010 and WEO 2011, where Khatib comments on these WEO publications in two separate reviews. When commenting on WEO 2010, Khatib summarises the parts of the publication and criticises the WEO for still promoting the 450 sce-nario, which he finds outdated. The addition of the New Policies Scenario within the publication of this year is “more realistic” according to Khatib as it is based on a scenario of necessary in-vestments and initiatives. Khatib argues that future WEO would still have to be more pragmatic in terms of growth in developing countries, the management of resources, energy efficiency and technologies (Khatib 2011). As mentioned Khatib also comments on the following year’s publi-cation: WEO 2011. This is as close to another comparative study over time of the WEO one can get. Khatib calls the 2011 publication the most “futuristic” of all energy studies and also com-mend it for being an in-depth study. On the other hand Khatib argues that the report is in need of more review and analysis. Many parts of the publication could make use of new research which offers new perspectives on the issues being discussed. One such issue is the focus on IPCC pro-jections of carbon emissions, which as Khatib points out is being contested by other researchers. Otherwise Khatib (2012) presents the results of the publications in the form of a summarising review, pointing out what the new focuses are.

These comments have in common that they all criticise the WEO publications for being incom-plete or in need of other perspectives. The comments are more of a review than a critical evalua-tion. The perspectives of Kline and Weyant’s (1983) comment on WEO 1982 is in its outlook the closest to mine, as it is focused on a specific topic within the publication. The comment focuses on oil imports however, while I here focus on the transport sector. Different from both Kline and Weyant (1983) and Khatib (2011, 2012) my focus is more directed towards presentations and rationalities of energy and how perspectives have been changing over time within the WEO; a perspective that have been lacking previously, even if Khatib (2011 & 2012) reviews scratch this surface to a limited extent.

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While researches focusing on the WEO publications themselves are few, there is a great deal more research in the fields of energy policy and in researching energy related publications over-all, some of which has already been referred to (see Cherp and Jewell 2011; Giddens 1990). Since recommending policy pathways is a key aim of the WEO (see IEA 2018b), policy research is a relevant field for this study. The term policy has been argued by Bacchi (2009) to be widely understood as a way for governments to solve or fix issues. Based on this definition, the presence of a policy in itself indicates that there is a problem (even if the governmental policies them-selves do not declare there to be any). If one seeks to get to the bottom of what the problem be-ing dealt with is, one must ask “What is the problem represented to be?” (WPR) (Bacchi 2009). Bacchi (2009) uses this framework throughout various cases to illustrate how to inquire about what the issue is thought to be in relation to certain problems. For example, if a policy empha-sises more training courses for women in a certain context, then it is implied that the issue is women’s lack of training. However, this does not mean that the formulation of the problem is an objective truth and its solution the right pathway to take. The WPR method adopts a ’sceptical’ stance to how knowledge is presented, as it is based on asking what the rationalities of knowl-edge are in how things are thought to be solved. This constructs a chain of cause and effect, a form of knowledge production that can be critically scrutinised in terms of knowledge and power and here Bacchi derives her thinking from Michel Foucault (Bacchi 2009).

As for Foucault, he is commonly connected to how he understands power as productive in terms of knowledge as explained already in Chapter 1. Basically, mechanisms of power produces and regulate the boundaries of what is perceived as knowledge, and this knowledge in due turn sets up rationalities that among all determines when, why and how power is located. As such power and knowledge produce each other. This is done through control of the narrative or discourses. The knowledge in practice is the story of how the world around us works and has come to be. It is the telling of history and hereby the setting of an origin of all things. Such a version, narrative or context is what Foucault labels a “regime of truth”; a set of logics within a particular context (Barker 1998, pp.20.ff; Foucault 2000, pp. 131.f).

As power determines knowledge in a societal structure according to Foucault (2000), then poli-cies as Bacchi (2009) describes them has the capacity to frame the telling of history and the ra-tionality of the context. To use Foucault’s own term, policies represent a regime of truth; a narra-tive of origin and results, and this is how Bacchi (2009) can be argued to understand policies and their governmental representation.

Why then is the telling of history so important? In their controversial work, The History

Mani-festo, Guldi and Armitage (2014) make a point out of why the historical long-term perspective is

important. It is through looking at the past that we may understand present events and how to solve current and predict future issues. Knowledge of past events aids us in telling the stories of what were and reach a consensus of what should be done. This is an important strategy in han-dling large and complicated issues such as climate change, as it can provide information needed to deal with such problems. However, planning for solutions to issues can also face complica-tions if not all variables are accounted for. This is an aspect that Grint (2008) has discussed in relation to climate change. As a problem, climate change has been argued to be a difficult or ‘wicked’ problem to solve for world leaders. It affects everyone and is connected to a number of matters that can easily get into conflict with each other when solutions are presented. This was the case when biofuels were being encouraged as a solution. These fuels can potentially solve some problems, but in their stead issues of food security arise.

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and what their roles (as participants) are. The results showed that few participants were there because they seek change. Instead, they participate in order to network and to bridge differences between countries. The role of the UNFCC then according to the participants is that it enables actors (policy makers) to come together to produce policies.

Such mindsets have also been argued to be part of some major conundrums for climate change policy. The matter has been labelled a concern of international relations and the relationships between countries. At the same time, the actions of individual consumers are of great importance to reduce energy consumption to mitigate climate change (Stripple & Bulkeley 2013, p.2). This connects to Giddens’ (1990) juggernaut of modernity in the sense that decision making power is located in the hands of authorities.

As such this study connects policy making with actors and roles of people and organisation. It is not the only one to this however. Bäckstrand and Elgström (2013) have on this note discussed what the role of the European Union in negotiations on climate change has been. They come up with similar results to Lövenbrand, Hjerpe and Linnér (2017). These results indicate that the EU has had a mediating role in bringing together various developing countries that share the same climate legislation interests. However, they also act as the leading party in doing this, being both a leader and a mediator; a “leadiator”.

Organisations like the EU can thus be argued to serve both as a leader and a mediator in dealing with issues such as climate change. The IEA serves a similar purpose in that the agency as part of the OECD can be argued to be part of an organisation whose purpose also is to aid in govern-ance (OECD 2018a), for which the IEA provides research (IEA 2018a; IEA 2018b).

3.3. Publication Bias

Previous policy studies of international governing organisations have focused on their role as actors and what these actor-roles entail. These roles have primarily been that of mediators and leaders. The telling of history however, as Guldi and Armitage (2014) describe to us, present us with a context for action, and it can be a “good” thing in dealing with certain issues.

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Publication bias has been discussed in relation to environmental issues by researchers as well. Havranek et al. (2015) have for instance looked for publication bias in the estimations of the so-cial costs of carbon in policy actions. The results of the study showed that there were indeed bias present in line with what were considered favourable results. Small estimates featuring large uncertainty had a tendency to be excluded from the findings.

Other researchers are less optimistic in terms of the effects of bias in environmental research. Anderson (2015) for instance criticises that researchers at times censor their research to be in line with conventional viewpoints and to receive funding. This is, as Anderson points out, not the researcher’s job. Rather, the researcher should point out and challenge inconsistencies, especially in matters as potentially devastating as climate change where insufficient measures may prove catastrophic. Anderson (2015) also critics the technology-oriented solutions often presented to such issues, as many of these technologies have not been fully tested or are just barely conceptu-alised. In how organisations like the IPCC present their data, Anderson therefore criticises them for being overly optimistic in this regard.

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4. Theory and Methodology

As I am going to discuss how energy and environmental issues are positioned in the transport sector, I am going to address their respective rationalities for being there. Here I will first elabo-rate on how the data has been searched and move on to relevant concepts and theories that have been used. A concept that commonly deals with the aspect of positioning is the concept of role, however, usually for subjective actors (see for example Goffman 1990[1959; Hammarén & Jo-hansson 2009). A methodological and theoretical framework that works from similar premises but enables the inclusion of non-subjects (objects) as actors is actor-network theory (ANT) (see Callon 1986). As such it is suitable for this study since it is dealing with a number of non-subjective aspects. In this section I am therefore going to elaborate on what an actor is, the con-cept of role and how it relates to action, what actor-network theory entails and how it is going to be used.

4.1. Content Analysis

To search through and showcase the data, I will be (as has been stated in the Introduction chap-ter) using an interpretive qualitative content analysis. Alternatively, I could have made a

dis-course analysis. A disdis-course analysis would have enabled me to address the wording in the

ma-terial used in relation to energy. However this is more of a methodology focused on the structure of language in relation to a research aim (Phillips & Jørgensen 2002, p.1). I am for instance not interested in what might signify energy as a word in this case, but rather how, why and for whom it occurs in the form of relations of action.

When looking at content analysis, if we use it as an umbrella term, it provides the researcher with the means to understand and analyse the meaning of a text in connection to its context; its sender(s), its recipient(s), its societal and cultural environment(s). For researchers and analysts this is a useful method for coming to terms with for example the thinking and motivations of people that are no longer living or that are otherwise unavailable (Krippendorf 2013, pp.24.ff). What people are and have been communicating is and has been an important part of how they experience the World. If we seek to understand the lived worlds of people, we need to study what they have left behind in terms of communication (Prior 2014).

The method is a means to generate data based on themes applied on or identified in the material (Bryman 2018, p.359). For instance one might inquire who a text is about and in what instance they occur. This way it is possible to identify for example central people or actors in documents and material such as mass media and come to terms with when and in when they appear. This might also be looked at over a longer time period, yielding answers as to patterns over time (Bryman 2018, pp.364.f).

In the case of the WEO, which has had many authors from various parts of the World and was released for the first time in the 70s, the authors are not easily accessible. At the same time, the publications are core communications left behind by these IEA authors. In other words, content analysis covers the means to look at a material left or made by this organisation and how various aspects have shifted over time.

Content analysis can be executed in various ways however. Methods such as basic content

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theories on the data. Qualitative content analysis by contrast instead covers findings of patterns and the irregular based on the data. To summarise; the patterns are derived from the data, not applied on it (Drisko & Machi 2015, pp.86.ff). Since I have sought to identify patterns and changes in the material, the methodology leans more towards the qualitative approach.

The reason why I also realise my methodology as interpretive is because I have also sought to be mindful of the context of my material; the transport sector within the publications. Sometimes researchers identify interpretive content analysis as a method on its own, however the borderline between interpretive and basic or qualitative analysis is obscure and the method is often handled as a complement to or variation of either method, as it essentially means that the researcher will take heed to the context of the studied material (Drisko & Machi 2015, pp.58, 85.ff). To answer my research questions in relation to the context of the transport sector and how energy and envi-ronmental issues are positioned in this context, I therefore find it necessary to include a qualita-tive interprequalita-tive approach.

What this kind of methodology means for this study is that when going through the publications, context and the kind of content is key. The transport sector is the context of relevance, and I have therefore looked for sections featuring this sector in particular. When finding such sections I have then been looking for the mentioning of environmental issues such as emissions and pollu-tion and how they related to energy in those cases.

4.2. Actors and Agency

As mentioned above in the content analysis chapter, content analysis enables the identification of actors within a specific context (Bryman 2018, pp.364.f). In order to discuss the positions of en-ergy and the environment within the transport sector in terms of what roles they are ascribed, the concepts of actor and agency need to be elaborated upon. Agency is a term that in many cases has come to replace the term action. This is due to a disagreement or difference in standpoints of what conditions the action. Is it structural or individual? Is it conditioned by societal systems or individual agents with choices (Inglis and Thorpe 2012, p.9)? In the form of agency, the concept has been defined most prominently by Anthony Giddens who argues that it entails the capacity of making a difference, and that this is how social change is brought about. This requires aware-ness of options, that is, that those acting are aware of that they have choices (Giddens 1984, pp.169.ff). Talcott Parsons, one of the former dominant American scholars in functionalist theo-ries of social systems (Inglis and Thorpe 2012, p.38), discusses this subject matter in a similar fashion. Actors or agents are those committing the action or agency. For this to occur, the act committed has an end, a means, a situation and a relationship between various elements that are variables in the making of action. What this means is that to pick and execute a certain form of action, there must be a goal to reach, a way or ways to achieve it, it must stand out in a situation where certain action is possible and likely to yield certain results, and finally, it is set in a norma-tive framework where certain courses of action are preferable to others (Parsons 1949, p.44). Parsons’ (1949) listed requirements for action has relevance for this study as they essentially point to what he perceives as necessary conditions for someone to act. In analysis the WEO con-tents can be discussed through these aspects.

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viewed in this case, without making it a discourse analysis. This includes the transport sector as well, as this is the setting of the other two.

4.3. Roles, Action and Governance

The concept of role is relevant to address here as it relates to the rationalities and positions of action. One of the most famous users of the concept of role has been Ervin Goffman (Hammarén & Johansson 2009, p.279). Goffman presents the concept in relation to how the self is con-structed in social contexts. He uses the metaphor of a stage to explain social positions and prac-tices. Everyone (as actors) are constantly performing in front of an audience (parts of society) in order to display how they wish to be perceived by others. In this regard Goffman uses the front

stage and backstage analogies to differentiate between where this performance takes place (in

the former) and where it is prepared (in the latter). On this stage there are various teams acting in accordance to certain scripts of action. Each team has access to a set of various types of informa-tion and secrets related to their practices that is shared inside the group and not always available to others outside of it. The team acts towards an audience, and the audience has certain expecta-tions of and is performed to by the team. There are also outsiders however that are not present to neither perceive nor be performed to by the team. These sets of scripts, trade-secrets and knowl-edge set the team in a social role towards their audience or the society. Such teams take various forms and can for example be conductors acting towards passengers or a sales-person acting to-wards customers (Goffman 1990 [1959]).

In this regard, identity has also been argued to play an important part in the construction of roles. Nils Hammarén and Thomas Johansson (2009) have written a comprehensive book on the con-cept of identity. In their book they claim that the concon-cept of role can be connected to identity studies in the sense that in order to adopt a role, you must also adopt and receive an identity. Identity can be understood as the socially ascribed characteristics of an individual or group. The differences in these characteristics is what makes people perceived as different from one another, and such characteristics can be given by others to an individual or group, or taken by the indi-vidual or group. When a role is adopted, an identity is taken and ascribed with it. The character-istics of the role dictates whether someone is granting themselves or granted to be perceived as the conductor, a criminal or judge (the identity). The ‘script’ that goes with the role is what dic-tates the forms of actions available for such identity positions (Hammarén & Johansson 2009, pp.8.f; p.27).

Identity is however also something that can be ascribed places. Places and spaces also tend to be assigned certain traits or signifiers that distinguish them from other places or spaces (Brusman 2011). This way it can be connected to the concept of identity (see Hammarén & Johansson 2009). For this thesis, the concept of region is a concept of space and place that is used due to the regional occurrences in the publication. The concept of region is based in that people tend to have ideas of what a space or area looks like and where this space ends. These take the form of mental maps where we can distinguish one area from that of another; for example countries from other countries (de Blij, Muller & Nijman 2014, pp.5.ff). If I were to use an example, this is how for instance China becomes different from Russia; they are associated with different things, in-cluding geographical locations.

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Goffman (1990 [1959]) frames it when he explains how various teams are expected to follow certain scripts in accordance to their role, Parsons means that with the roles of for example teachers, they are expected to act in certain ways and certain types of action are deemed as proper or improper. Parsons connects this to a cultural system however, and argues that when engaging in the activities of a role, action and interaction are regulated by the cultural system through values and norms, providing a form or structure for actions being taken. This enables coherence through time, which makes the system a system (Inglis & Thorpe 2012, p.45).

In Parsons’ case the role is given the position of making up the entire social realm people live in. Goffman (1990 [1959]) uses different metaphors and terminology, but could also be argued to understand roles as something constituting the social sphere. They entail scripts of action and expectations from spectators. However, Goffman’s approach is more in line with identity studies than Parsons in the sense that roles and related acting are framed as something based on appear-ances rather than active social divisions of action/labour.

This can in due turn be connected to Foucault’s views on governance. Dean (2010) has con-structed several steps in analysing governance derived from Foucault that are linked to rationali-ties of action. These steps inquire: why someone has to govern, when and where? How is this governance carried out? What is the narrative or contextual aspects linking the subject matter together (assemblages)? How is authority established and what parts of it needs to be visible to issue discipline? What forms of knowledge or tools are required to govern? What identities are established? What is the end-goal – the utopian view of the future? What values and norms are parts of the process of governing? And finally, in what way does governance avoid being ‘radi-cal’, that is, how does it position itself as neither good nor bad, constrain and allow freedom of action?

Dean’s (2010) steps are essentially aimed at getting to what constitutes governance in a specific context. As seen above, this is linked to forms of action. This bares similarities to Foucault’s (2000) regimes of truth, which entail what logics or narratives that apply to a specific context; the governmentality. They can also be linked to Goffman’s (1990 [1959]) scripts, front- and backstage concepts for roles in the sense that they inquire about how the act of governing is sup-posed to be carried out according to what and how one seeks to achieve through governance. It also connects to Parsons (Inglis & Thorpe 2012, p.45) views on reasonable proper and improper action within a context. Through this the concepts of roles and action appear as closely con-nected to governance.

What is discussed in this publication can in this regard be viewed to take place at the ‘front stage’. The publications are what is presented to the outside world, and as such they are already placed in certain acting positions in front of the audience this world entails. The positions of en-ergy and the environmental issues can be argued to have certain scripts as to their rationalities and identity traits, taking place in the scenery of the transport sector and the aims of the publica-tion as the context or stage. The discussion of this thesis will be based on this in order to get to the rationalities of the WEO publications through time.

4.4. Actor-Network Theory

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Derived from linguist theorist Ferdinand de Saussure and researcher Jacques Lacan, we can only conceptualise the world through language, and therefore language is key in how we understand and imagine the world around us. It is the differences between various terms, words and aspects that make them unique. They all have assigned traits (signifiers) which determine what they (the

signified) are. For example, this is how a hat is understood as different from a cat. Signifiers for

the cat could for example be that it is living, got fur, eats, walks, grows – traits that the hat does not share and so it is its own discourse. Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe have argued for un-derstanding this as a network of meaning, where the signifiers connecting to the signified (in their words as signs and the node) can be illustrated and described as a dynamic net where the signs are connected to a central overarching node which they ascribe meaning to. This changes through time however, and how we focus determines what connections and what kind of network we see. Essentially, if you focus on one aspect of the network, certain signifiers will be relevant and visible. (Phillips & Jørgensen 2002, pp.40.f.; Mansfield 2000, pp.39.f).

Systems theory works from similar premises of networks of nodes and connections/associations. When put into the context of an actor-network however, this is to be understood in terms of how these connections conditions action, not language (Snyder & Kick 1979; Latour 2005). What I seek to do in this study, is to make clear the connection of actor-roles between energy and envi-ronmental issues within the transport sector. What part the transport sector plays also becomes significant as it is the realm studied and thus it should also be noted how it conditions the two aspects of interest. For this reason, ANT is a suitable tool to use. It enables the user to go beyond the concept of roles. Roles solely tend to apply to subjective actors. ANT goes beyond the sub-jectivity of actors and establishes that objects and other aspects can be actors as well. This way the theory can be argued to complement this concept. Michel Callon, one of the core founders of ANT, is famous for using the example of the compartments of an electric car to illustrate net-work connections for instance. All the different parts necessary to make an electric car are pre-sented as actors, including motors and other non-subjective compartments (Lee 2012, pp.147.f; Callon 1986). Bruno Latour has defined actors in this instance to be moving units affected by other forces or actors (Latour 2005, p.46). This I interpret in terms of that actors are made to act through forces outside of themselves, and this is to be viewed as an actor-network of relations. They connect through their capacity to enable an actor to act. I envision it as a set of magnets or similar items that are all forcing each other to move via their magnetic fields. For this study, this point of view enables the identification of actors by asking: what is supposed to affect what? Steve Hinchcliffe has argued that when we discuss the connection of units such as the human and non-human, it is however important to remember that this network is by no means finished or finite. All of them include characteristics or affects the mobility of other units in ways that are this far unknown to us. Thus all networks can also be viewed as processes of ‘becoming’ some-thing different than it appears to us now and are hereby not just composed of a single world, but of various alternatives and combinations not visible to us (Hinchcliffe 2007, pp.72.ff). In other words; change over time. The actor-networks of energy and environmental issues will essentially be discussed within the context of the transport sector, which can thus be seen as an

actor-network containing these two actor-networks. In the discussion of this thesis the parts of these net-works will be presented and compared as to how they have changed through, capturing their states of becoming.

4.6. Data Presentation

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5. Analysis

As described in the theory- and methods portion of this paper (see Chapter 4), I will here embark with a comparative analysis divided into six periods. The periods will be summarised in tables and condensed explanations of the contents with examples of wording and direct quotes. This will be followed by discussions of their content in regards to how energy, environmental issues and the transport sector have been presented, what their roles have been, how they are connected to each other, for whom and how this has changed through time.

5.1. A Diachronic Analysis of the WEO Reports

5.1.1. Period 1: WEO 1977-1995

In period 1 the reader should be reminded of the publication gap between WEO 1977 and 1993, why this period may seem to cover a longer period of time compared to the latter periods. The main points of each report in the first four-year period (1977-1995) are summarised in Table 01. Overall this period showcase a shift in how environmental issues are addressed. At the start (in WEO 1977) environmental considerations are framed as constraints for energy efficiency while WEO 1993 treats them as major concerns in regards to global warming and emissions. A focus remains on efficiency, consumer preferences and technological improvements are emphasised throughout the period. WEO 1995 also adds pollution and congestion as environmental consid-erations.

In WEO 1977, when the transportation sector is brought up, it is mainly in terms of energy con-servation policies in an Accelerated Policies Scenario which features more ‘vigorous’ policies for energy conservation and reduced oil reliance. Throughout the part dealing with the transport sector and conservation policies by region, there is a division between conservation ‘opportuni-ties’ and ‘constraints’. Environmental considerations are listed among the constraints as “Envi-ronmental and Safety Measures” where they are described to have a negative effect on fuel effi-ciency:

“These measures can have an important negative impact on fuel ef-ficiency. This is illustrated by the fact that the fairly severe norms in the US for the exhaust emission of private cars have led to an increase of specific energy consumption of 28 percent over the last decade. In Japan, quite severe exhaust emission standards have also been introduced recently.“ (WEO 1977, p.69)

The case of the United States is here shown as an example that illustrates how such environ-mental considerations in this case result in an increase in the consumption of certain forms of energy. The example of Japan is also included as a case where emission standards have been introduced.

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In WEO 1993, a new scenario is adopted called the Efficiency Driven Policy Scenario, in which environmentally friendly and commercially available technologies are assumed to influence the market at a much greater scale. Efficiency improvements in all sectors (estimation of 10% in transportation) are in this case expected to result in energy savings, and in Europe and North America it will result in stabilised emissions and still some growth in emissions in the OECD Pacific. As such this scenario already entails an environmental focus that the WEO 1977 publica-tion lacked. Transportapublica-tion as a sector is affected by policies and consumer preferences, but again the end-goal is energy efficiency. These efficiencies are also described to have an effect; lower carbon dioxide emissions (CO2). Emissions are now, alongside global warming, seen as

environmental issues, but they can be reduced as a result of efficiency policies and preferences within the sector, because they encourage certain technologies. Thus there is a clear chain of aspects present in the WEO 1993 report. Consumer preferences and policy implementation result in technologies, which in due turn affect the degree of energy efficiency and emissions. The Table 1 1977-1995 (period 1) roles and issues

WEO 1977 Role of energy Environmental

issues

Roles of issues Transport sector

roles

Consumed in specific fuel forms. Should be efficient.

Considerations such as lowering emissions.

Constraint for im-proved fuel efficiency. US used as case to illustrate energy con-sumption of specific energy types due to considerations. Japan example of imple-mented emission standards.

Impacted by constraints and opportunities re-garding fuel efficiency.

WEO 1993

Improved in terms of efficiency by policies and consumer prefer-ences affecting tech-nological adoption. Efficiency improve-ments save energy.

CO2 emissions and global warming.

Lowered as an effect of improved efficiency through implemented technologies in the transport sector. Effi-ciency improvements to lower emissions in Europe and North America, but still some emission growth in OECD Pacific.

Affected by efficiency driven policies and con-sumer preferences, conditioning it to im-prove energy efficiency and thereby lower emis-sions.

WEO 1994

Improved in terms of efficiency by policies and consumer prefer-ences affecting tech-nological adoption.

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WEO 1995

Improved in terms of efficiency and used as fuels within the trans-port sector.

CO2 Emissions and global warming. Pollu-tion and congesPollu-tion in cities.

Effect situated in ur-ban areas through being conditioned by transport sector as-pects. Solved through Fuel substitution, managing urbanisa-tion, improving fuel quality and techno-logical improvements in vehicles, fuels and emissions control. South and Central America as example of increasing intolerable pollution levels.

Includes vehicles as the cause of emissions, congestion and pollution. Particularly acute in terms of environmental impact through increas-ing motorisation and limited fuel substitution. Space where fuels are indoctrinated - condi-tions environmental issues.

preferable outcome or goal is that efficiency is to increase and reduce emissions. Thus in sum-mary there is a clear shift from 1977 as environmental issues now feature as goals that are desir-able to attain rather than as obstacles.

This chain as well as the Efficiency Driven Scenario reoccurs in WEO 1994. The difference are the features of the transport sector where fuel prices are added to the mix of what form of action that affects the results of energy efficiency and degree of carbon emissions, adding an economi-cal aspect. It also gets more specific as to where and how efficiency is achieved as transport modes and fuel types are described to affect efficiency within the sector. Air transport and pas-senger cars are as being subjected to improvements, which improves efficiency. Diesel as a fuel is also described as a more efficient alternative. Policies, consumer preferences, fuel prices, fuel type and transport mode improvements increases efficiency and hereby reduce emissions within the sector. The behaviour of consumers is described as a necessary component for these pieces to work together:

“While the energy savings in this scenario is technologically feasi-ble, it should not be presumed that its achievement is practicable in the absence of strong policy initiatives or without significant changes in the tastes and behaviour of energy consumers. For ex-ample, current technology makes available cars that are at least twice as efficient as the average new car. Yet consumers seem to prefer larger, safer and more comfortable cars.” (WEO 1994, p.100)

In a sense, the choices of consumers are here described to affect vehicle technologies in practice, and since they at the present are drawn towards vehicles characterised by being large, safer and comfortable, current consumer behaviour is less than ideal as less efficient alternatives tend to be picked.

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The transport sector is also described as especially problematic (also connected to urban areas): “Environmental concerns arise in all energy consuming sectors,

but are particularly acute in transportation sector where emissions are especially confined to urban areas and where the scope of fuel substitution is currently limited.” (WEO 1995, p.247)

The issue here is thus transport emissions in urban areas, which are difficult to mitigate as the type of fuels used are hard to switch out. In the publication, this issue is also attributed to in-creasing motorisation, which could potentially be dealt with through technological improve-ments, fuel quality, supply and substitution, controlling emissions and managing urbanisation (WEO 1995, p.247).

The use of fuels/energy is what thus determines the impact of these issues, and the sector is the context, space or scenery where this occurs. Cities are added as a specific location where conges-tion and polluconges-tion are present, framing it as a trait of these issues. The transport sector is also particularly acute through its increasing motorisation in terms of environmental effects, which ascribes the sector the characteristic of being especially problematic due to this increase in motor vehicles. Fuel substitution, managing urbanisation, improving fuel quality and technological im-provements in vehicles, fuels and emissions control are in the publication presented solutions to these issues. In terms of the alternative fuels, these have however shifted in focus. From the start they were aimed at reducing oil consumption, but now “[...] environmental considerations are seen as the principal driving force” (WEO 1995, p.282) for such alternatives. Thus environ-mental considerations is the very reason for such fuels being used, again in stark contrast to how such considerations were presented in WEO 1977.

5.1.2. Period 2: WEO 1996-2000

In this period, period 2, it should be recalled that there was no publication in 1997 and so there exists a gap this year. After this the publications were released regularly each year without ex-ception. This period otherwise sees the inclusion of Kyoto protocol commitments at the basis of scenarios, noise as an environmental factor, increasing motorisation as a problem and a special focus on subsidy removal in WEO 1999.

WEO 1996 presents environmental impact of energy consumption, climate change and emissions as concerns for the OECD, European countries and other national contexts. Therefore they are important policy areas for most countries in terms of reduction. This is how environmental issues are initially brought up in the publication and hereby motivated as energy policy matters. The transport sector occurs predominantly in relation to OECD Europe and sectoral developments, where in terms of energy consumption and environmental effects, road transportation has the role of being the dominant mode of transportation:

“Road transport dominates all other modes of transportation in terms of energy consumption and environmental impact. The en-ergy and environmental implications of the transport sector are in-creasingly causing concerns because the expected growth in traffic volume is likely to more than offset the energy efficiency im-provements in vehicle performance. In cities in particular, traffic congestion is spreading both in time and space. Air pollution is widespread in many cities, and noise is also a source of concern. The transport sector is a major contributor to total CO2 emissions,

which has implications for countries commitments to limit emis-sions.” (WEO 1996, p.100)

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Hereby efficiency is something to be improved, but hindered by increasing traffic, which result in other environmental issues as well in the form of noise and pollution.

The following publication, WEO 1998, is notable for its inclusion of the Kyoto protocol emis-sion targets as a basis for one of the projections where the transport sector is brought up on occa-sion:

“At the time of writing, most governments that accepted green-house gas emission commitments at the Kyoto Conference have not yet determined the packages of policies they will adopt to meet their commitments. Some actions that reduce carbon dioxide emis-sions will take place without policy changes. Estimates of these re-ductions are already included in the BaU projection” (WEO 1998, p.53).

Thus many countries have taken Kyoto commitments into consideration, however, this stands in contrast to a Business As Usual projection (BaU) of the publication – which projects changes in the energy sector as whole outside of the Kyoto protocol. Thus emissions should not just be re-duced, it is now also discussed what would be required to reach a certain commitment. The transport sector is mainly brought up in terms of its implications for oil consumption in the Table 2 1996-2000 (period 2) roles and issues

WEO 1996 Role of energy Environmental

issues

Roles of issues Transport sector

roles

Consumption in trans-portation results in environmental pacts, efficiency im-provements.

CO2 emissions and global warming/climate change. Congestion, noise, air pollution.

To be reduced through policy measures. Tar-gets for emissions (Kyoto protocol). Problematic for the OECD, Europe, OECD Europe and other nations.

Major contributor to emissions, traffic growth offsets improved energy efficiency from vehicle performance, air polluter and source of noise. Road transport dominant in terms of energy con-sumption and environ-mental impact.

WEO 1998

Consumed in the forms of oil and gas, results in emissions, oil should be substi-tuted with gas. Oil consumption in the OECD.

Climate change/global warming and CO2 emissions through energy consumption

To be lowered through policies of fuel substi-tution towards gas. Targets for emissions (Kyoto protocol). Oil consumption in the OECD brought up in climate scenario.

Energy consumer, bulk of oil consumption, energy consumption should shift towards gas

WEO 1999

Linked to subsidies; reduced prices on energy may cause environmental issues as opposed to other interests. In the form of oil: increases emis-sions.

Global warming and CO2 emissions. Pollu-tion and congesPollu-tion.

Leading to health hazards through en-ergy subsidies as op-posed to other inter-ests. Increasing oil demand increases emissions.

Energy, Environment and Transportation An Actor-Role Network Analysis of the World Energy Outlook 1977-2016

Felicia Söderqvist