Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan

General description of the region

The Pakistan-controlled territory of Kashmir consists of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK or commonly called Azad Kashmir, AK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) (see Map 1). On 4 August 2020, the Prime Minister of Pakistan revealed a new political map of the area that included Pakistan’s national borders whilst including the whole of Kashmir, which confirms the political claim to the territory.¹⁰⁷⁰ In September 2020, Ali Amin Gandapur, Minister of Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan in the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan, announced that the GB region ‘would soon’ become a

1063 AA, 2 police officers killed in Islamabad 'terror attack', 4 June 2021, url

1064 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 4

1065 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 28

1066 CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url

1067 CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url

1068 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 28; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url

1069 IDMC, GRID 2021 Global Report on Internal Displacement, May 2021, url; Websites consulted:

http://www.unocha.org/pakistan; https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/pakistan;

http://reliefweb.int/country/pak

1070 Dawn, In landmark move, PM Imran unveils 'new political map' of Pakistan, 4 August 2020, url; Dawn, Pakistan affirms claim to IHK with new map, 5 August 2020, url

province of Pakistan.¹⁰⁷¹In November 2020, Prime Minister Khan announced that GB would get the status of a provisional province.¹⁰⁷²

AK has an estimated population of about 3-4.5 million.¹⁰⁷³ Elections for the legislative assembly in AK were scheduled on 25 July 2021.¹⁰⁷⁴ The majority in AJK are Muslims.¹⁰⁷⁵ GB has an estimated population of about two million people.¹⁰⁷⁶ The demography of GB consists of around 40 % Shia.¹⁰⁷⁷ GB is governed by a legislative assembly but has few legal powers and the region remains largely governed directly by the federal government.¹⁰⁷⁸ On 15 November 2020, elections were held in GB for the assembly.¹⁰⁷⁹

Background of the conflict and actors in Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan

The territory of Kashmir is a disputed area divided between India, Pakistan and China but claimed in its entirety by Pakistan and India.¹⁰⁸⁰ The Pakistan-India relationship has been historically tense for decades.¹⁰⁸¹ The Line of Control (LoC) is approximately a 724 km long border separating India-administered Kashmir from Pakistan-India-administered Kashmir, managed by their respective armies on each side.¹⁰⁸² It is known as one of the most heavily militarised borders in the world.¹⁰⁸³

India accuses Pakistan of supporting militant groups like JeM, LeT and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) and of having their operational bases in the Pakistan and Indian-administrated Kashmir region.¹⁰⁸⁴ HM is a militant group operating in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. It is led by Syed Salahuddin who is based in Pakistan.¹⁰⁸⁵ HM has conducted numerous attacks in India-administered Kashmir.¹⁰⁸⁶ Also, JeM has attacked high profile Indian targets, including the Indian parliament in New Delhi and the legislative assembly in Indian-administered Kashmir.¹⁰⁸⁷ In February 2019, the group claimed the Pulwama attack, killing some 40 Indian soldiers.¹⁰⁸⁸ A month after the Pulwama attack, in February 2019, Pakistan started ‘a crackdown’ on groups it claims are linked to banned organisations.¹⁰⁸⁹ According to the Jamestown Foundation, the wave of attacks in August 2018 in Gilgit-Baltistan showed that the area was vulnerable to militant attacks. The article suggested further the resurgence of the TTP in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. The wave of attacks in August 2018

1071 Express Tribune (The), 'G-B to be made province soon', 17 September 2020, url

1072 Al Jazeera, Pakistan PM vows to grant provisional status to Gilgit-Baltistan, 2 November 2020, url

1073 Reuters, Explainer: Scenic Kashmir at the heart of India-Pakistani animosity, 15 February 2019, url

1074 AA, Elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir on July 25, 10 June 2021, url

1075 Reuters, Explainer: Scenic Kashmir at the heart of India-Pakistani animosity, 15 February 2019, url

1076 Al Jazeera, Pakistan PM vows to grant provisional status to Gilgit-Baltistan, 2 November 2020, url

1077 Economic Times (The), Shia majority reduced to minority in Gilgit Baltistan: Barrister Hamid Bashani, 12 November 2020, url

1078 Al Jazeera, Pakistan PM vows to grant provisional status to Gilgit-Baltistan, 2 November 2020, url

1079 AA, Pakistan: Third elections begin in Gilgit-Baltistan, 15 November 2020, url

1080 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Redrawing the Maps in Kashmir. New Geopolitical Realities in the Conflict between China, India, and Pakistan, November 2020, url, p. 1

1081 RFE/RL, India Blames Pakistan, Demands Action After Kashmir Attack, 15 February 2019, url; DW, Kashmir: The world's most dangerous conflict, 7 August 2019, url

1082 CFR, Conflict Between India and Pakistan, nidi, url; Kulkarni, T., The escalation of ceasefire violations across the Line of Control, 20 August 2020, url

1083 Kulkarni, T., The escalation of ceasefire violations across the Line of Control, 20 August 2020, url, BBC News, Viewpoint:

India and Pakistan up the ante on disputed border, 30 January 2018, url

1084 Al Jazeera, Explainer: Who are Kashmir's armed groups?, 3 March 2019, url

1085 Al Jazeera, Explainer: Who are Kashmir's armed groups?, 3 March 2019, url

1086 Al Jazeera, Explainer: Who are Kashmir's armed groups?, 3 March 2019, url

1087 Al Jazeera, Explainer: Who are Kashmir's armed groups?, 3 March 2019, url

1088 Al Jazeera, Explainer: Who are Kashmir's armed groups?, 3 March 2019, url

1089 Al Jazeera, India-Pakistan tensions: All the latest updates, 10 March 2019, url

demonstrated the group’s possibility to recruit people as well as its ability and willingness to conduct a variety of attacks.¹⁰⁹⁰

Recent security trends and impact on the civilian population Security incidents

ACLED collected data on 129 violent events in Azad Kashmir from open-source reports in the year 2020, 118 of which were coded as battles, 10 as explosions/remote violence and 1 as violence against civilians.¹⁰⁹¹

PIPS did not mention any ‘terrorist attack’ in Azad Kashmir in 2020.¹⁰⁹² PICSS reported not a single militant attack in 2020 and described the security situation in Azad Kashmir as ‘stable’.¹⁰⁹³ However, the situation at the LoC remained ‘relatively more volatile’ in 2020, according to PIPS.¹⁰⁹⁴ PIPS counted 114 cross-border attacks from the border with India.¹⁰⁹⁵

From 1 January 2021 to 31 July 2021, ACLED coded three violent events in Azad Kashmir; of which one was coded as battles, one as explosions/remote violence and one as violence against

civilians.¹⁰⁹⁶ These three violent incidents occurred in Bhimber, Kotli and Neelum.¹⁰⁹⁷

In the first seven months of 2021, PIPS observed six overall incidents. None was classified as

‘terrorist attacks’.¹⁰⁹⁸ PICSS mentioned one violent incident in 2021.¹⁰⁹⁹ In the same period, PIPS recorded seven incidents of violence at the Pakistan-India border.¹¹⁰⁰

ACLED collected data on two violent events in Gilgit-Baltistan from reports in open sources in the year 2020, of which one were coded as battles and one as violence against civilians.¹¹⁰¹ According to PICSS, not a single militant attack occurred in 2020 in Gilgit-Baltistan.¹¹⁰² PIPS recorded also no

‘terrorist attacks’ in the area in 2020.¹¹⁰³

1090 Zahid, F., Recent Wave of Terrorism in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan Region, 2 November 2018, url

1091 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied:

Pakistan; Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2020-31 December 2020), update 3 September 2021, url

1092 PIPS, Pakistan Security Report 2020, 3 January 2021, url, p. 20

1093 PICSS, Annual Security Assessment Report 2020, 5 January 2021, url,, p. 41

1094 PIPS, Pakistan Security Report 2020, 3 January 2021, url, p. 25

1095 PIPS, Pakistan Security Report 2020, 3 January 2021, url, p. 25

1096 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied:

Pakistan; Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2021-31 July 2021), update 3 September 2021, url

1097 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied:

Pakistan; Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2021-31 July 2021), update 3 September 2021, url

1098 Rana Amir, M., email, 10 August 2021 - data 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 courtesy of PIPS

1099 Khan, A. email, 8 August 2021 - data 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 courtesy of PICSS

1100 Rana Amir, M., email, 10 August 2021 - data 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 courtesy of PIPS

1101 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied:

Pakistan; Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2020-31 December 2020), update 3 September 2021, url

1102 PICSS, Annual Security Assessment Report 2020, 5 January 2021, url,, p. 41

1103 PIPS, Pakistan Security Report 2020, 3 January 2021 url, p. 20

From 1 January to 31 July 2021, ACLED did not mention any violent incident in Gilgit-Baltistan.¹¹⁰⁴ In the first seven months of 2021, PIPS observed no incidents.¹¹⁰⁵ PICSS also observed no violent incidents in 2021.¹¹⁰⁶

Security trends 2020-2021

In February 2021, it was reported that India has committed 3 097 cease-fire violations in 2020, which killed 28 and injured 257 civilians. Pakistan reportedly committed 5 133 violations.¹¹⁰⁷ On 25

February 2021, Pakistan and India reaffirmed their commitment to the 2003 ceasefire agreement alongside the LoC.¹¹⁰⁸ In the beginning of May 2021 both nations accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement after an exchange of fire in the Ramgarh sector.¹¹⁰⁹ At the end of June 2021, India stated that two explosive-laden Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) crashed into the Indian-controlled territory of Kashmir.¹¹¹⁰

In July 2021, BBC News Urdu reported that Habib-ur-Rehman, a commander of Mujahideen Gilgit-Baltistan and Kohistan resurfaced in Gilgit-Gilgit-Baltistan. BBC News Urdu stated that on videos circulating on social media it was shown that, Habib-ur-Rehman held an ‘open court’ in Diamer district.¹¹¹¹ According to VoA Urdu, the government denied the presence of Pakistani Taliban militants in Gilgit-Baltistan. ¹¹¹²

Casualties

In 2020, CRSS documented no casualties due to violence in AJK (see Figure 10).¹¹¹³ According to data in the first and second quarter analysis report of 2021 conducted by CRSS, no casualties of violence were reported in AJK (see Figure 10).¹¹¹⁴

Casualties in Azad Kashmir

2020 01/01/2021-30/06/2021

Fatalities Injuries Total Fatalities Injuries Total

0 0 0 0 0 0

Figure 10. Casualties in Azad Kashmir, 2020 and the first half of 2021, based on CRSS data¹¹¹⁵

1104 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied:

Pakistan; Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2021-31 July 2021), update 3 September 2021, url

1105 Khan, A. email, 8 August 2021 - data 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 courtesy of PICSS

1106 Khan, A. email, 8 August 2021 - data 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 courtesy of PICSS

1107 Al Jazeera, India, Pakistan agree to stop cross-border firing in Kashmir, 25 February 2021, url

1108 Al Jazeera, India, Pakistan agree to stop cross-border firing in Kashmir, 25 February 2021, url

1109 AA, Pakistan, India trade cease-fire violation accusations, 4 May 2021, url

1110 Diplomat (The), Drone Attacks on Military Installation Rattle India’s Security Establishment, 30 June 2021, url

1111 BBC News Urdu, ویڈی و کی ‘ی رہچک لیھک’ تی مس ںویھتاس کی رڈنامک دنسپ تدش بولطم ٹاہتنا ںیم ناتستلب تگلگ: نمحرلا بیبح, [informal translation ‘Habib-ur-Rehman: Video of 'open court' with associates of most wanted militant commander in Gilgit-Baltistan’], 8 July 2021, url

1112 VoA Urdu, ؟ ںیہ ےہر وہ مظنم ہرابود دنسپ تدش ںیم حاون ودرگ روا ناتستلب تگلگ ،تکلاہ کی ز ئنیجنا زنی [informal translation’ Killing of Chinese engineers, extremists reorganizing in Gilgit-Baltistan and surrounding areas’], 22 July 2021, url

1113 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 5

1114 CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url

1115 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 28; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url

CRSS documented seven casualties due to violence in Gilgit-Baltistan in 2020 (see Figure 11).¹¹¹⁶ According to CRSS two casualties affected civilians and five police-CTD officials.¹¹¹⁷ In the first and second quarter of 2021, CRSS counted no casualties (see Figure 11).¹¹¹⁸

Casualties in Gilgit-Baltistan

2020 01/01/2021-30/06/2021

Fatalities Injuries Total Fatalities Injuries Total

7 0 7 0 0 0

Figure 11. Casualties in Gilgit-Baltistan, 2020 and the first half of 2021, based on CRSS data¹¹¹⁹

Displacement

Among the consulted sources, no information was found about any conflict-induced displacement from areas in and to Gilgit-Baltistan in 2020 and the first seven months of 2021.¹¹²⁰

1116 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 4

1117 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 28

1118 CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url

1119 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 28; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url

1120 Websites consulted: http://www.unocha.org/pakistan;

https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/pakistan; http://reliefweb.int/country/pak