2. Security situation per region
2.1 Geographical overview of the violence
2.1.1 Trends in regional violence
ACLED provides a publicly available dataset to assess the geographical spread of violent incidents.
The maps in this section are based on the ACLED dataset695, which contains data about security-related incidents in Pakistan.
Map 2 and Map 3 show an overview of the violence in Pakistan by type of event for 2020 and the first seven months of 2021: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians.
Map 2: Battles, violence against civilians and explosions/remote violence in Pakistan 2020, based on ACLED data696
In 2020, most security incidents were coded by ACLED in the province of Balochistan (138), in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (129) and the province of KP (127). The lowest number of security incidents
695 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied: Pakistan;
Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2020-31 December 2020), update 3 September 2021, url
696 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied: Pakistan;
Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2020-31 December 2020), update 3 September 2021, url
were recorded the province of Punjab (33), in the Federal Capital of Islamabad (2) and in Gilgit-Baltistan (2).697
According to ACLED in 2020, the event type battles occurred the most in Azad Kashmir (118). Most explosions/remote violence occurred in the provinces of Balochistan (44) and KP (32). Violence against civilians occurred the most in the provinces of Balochistan (42), KP (27) and in Sindh (23).698
Map 3: Battles, violence against civilians and explosions/remote violence in Pakistan, 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 based on ACLED data699
Most security incidents in the first seven months of 2021 were recorded in Balochistan (203), the province of KP (127), the province of Punjab (81) and the province of Sindh (36). The lowest number of security incidents was recorded in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (3) and the Federal Capital of Islamabad (7). In Gilgit-Baltistan no security incidents were counted.700 According to ACLED in the
697 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied: Pakistan;
Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2020-31 December 2020), update 3 September 2021, url
698 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied: Pakistan;
Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2021-31 July 2021), update 3 September 2021, url
699 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied: Pakistan;
Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2021-31 July 2021), update 3 September 2021, url
700 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied: Pakistan;
Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2021-31 July 2021), update 3 September 2021, url
time period 1 January until 31 July 2021 the event type battles occurred the most in the provinces Balochistan (81) and KP (72). Most explosions/remote violence in the provinces of Balochistan (84) and KP (29). Violence against civilians occurred the most in the provinces of Punjab (62), Balochistan (38) and in KP (26).701
2.1.2 Regional comparison of violence-related casualties
Regional comparison of violence-related casualties in 2020
This section provides figures of fatalities and attacks at regional level, according to the four sources as described in the Introduction. It is impossible to present the figures in one comparative table, as the three main sources about the security situation use different parameters and definitions.
PIPS only gave regional details for ‘terrorist attacks’ in its annual report covering 2020. PIPS focused on the number of terrorist attacks (and consequent fatalities per province, and indicated percentage changes in 2020 compared to 2019, see Figure ). Compared to 2019, PIPS observed a decrease in
‘terrorist incidents’ (36 % overall). The number of deaths also decreased by 38 % compared to 2019.702 KP (including former FATA) and Balochistan were most affected by these attacks in 2020 (see Figure ).703
Figure 10. ‘Terrorist attacks’ by region - 2020 vs. 2019, based on PIPS data704
CRSS recorded most of the casualties in KP (including former FATA), followed by Balochistan and Sindh in 2020.705 According to CRSS, in comparison with 2019, the province of Punjab witnessed the greatest decrease in casualties in 2020. This includes casualties from terror attacks and counter-terror operations.706
701 Cedoca analysis based on publicly available ACLED data. ACLED, Curated Data Files, South Asia (Filters applied: Pakistan;
Event types: battles, explosions/remote violence and violence against civilians; 1 January 2021-31 July 2021), update 3 September 2021, url
702 PIPS, Pakistan Security Report 2020, 3 January 2021, url, pp. 20-21, p. 23
703 PIPS, Pakistan Security Report 2020, 3 January 2021, url, pp. 20-21, p. 23
704 PIPS, Pakistan Security Report 2020, 3 January 2021, url, pp. 20-21, p. 23
705 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 4
706 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 5
Region No of
terrorist incidents 2020
% change Persons killed
% change Persons killed injured
% change
Balochistan 42 50 % ↘ 95 44 % ↘ 216 50 % ↘
Karachi 15 50 % ↗ 17 21% ↗ 65 32 % ↗
KP (including former FATA)
79 37 % ↘ 100 31% ↘ 206 17% ↘
Punjab 7 40% ↗ 5 76% ↘ 59 44% ↗
Sindh
(excl. Karachi)
3 25 % ↘ 3 25 % ↘ 1 100 % ↗
Islamabad - - - -
Total 146 36 % ↘ 38 % ↘ 25% ↘
Figure presents a comparative regional analysis by CRSS of violence - related casualties in Pakistan in 2020.
Figure 11. Comparative regional analysis of casualties in 2020, based on CRSS data707
PICSS gives data for the overall incidents per region. In 2020, in total 333 overall incidents were observed. In 2020, 429 people were killed and 619 others injured. PICSS documented most of the casualties due to overall incidents (terrorist and other violent incidents) in Balochistan, followed by the province of KP and former FATA.708
Regional comparison of violence-related casualties 1 January 2021– 31 July 2021
475 casualties were recorded by PIPS in incidents of ‘terrorist attacks’ during the first seven months of 2021. Data from PIPS indicated that most casualties of ‘terrorist attacks’ in the first half of 2021 took place in Balochistan (252 casualties) and KP (160 casualties).709
According to PICSS in total 654 casualties were recorded in 263 incidents of overall violence in the first seven months of 2021.710 According to PICSS most casualties were counted in the province of Balochistan (313 casualties), the province of KP (270 casualties), and the province of Punjab (33 casualties).711
According to the first and the second quarterly report of CRSS, most casualties in the first half of 2021 occurred in Balochistan, followed by KP including former FATA followed by Sindh.712
707 CRSS, Annual Security Report 2020, 10 February 2021, url, p. 4
708 PICSS, Annual Security Assessment Report 2020, 5 January 2021, url, pp. 3-5
709 Rana Amir, M., email, 10 August 2021 - data 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 courtesy of PIPS
710 Khan, A. email, 8 August 2021 - data 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 courtesy of PICSS
711 Khan, A. email, 8 August 2021 - data 01/01/2021-31/07/2021 courtesy of PICSS
712 Figures fatalities and injured counted together for the first and second quarter – for the second quarter the number of fatalities/injured of the incident TLP was not counted in this number. CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
KP - including FATA Sindh Balochistan Punjab ICT AJK GB
Fatalities Injuries
Figure 3 presents a comparative regional analysis by CRSS of violence–related casualties in Pakistan in the first half of 2021 (quarter 1 and quarter 2 of 2021).713
Figure 3. Comparative regional analysis of the casualties in Q1, 2020 and Q2, 2021, based on CRSS data714
713 Figures fatalities and injured counted together for the first and second quarter – for the second quarter the number of fatalities/injured of the incident TLP was not counted in this number. CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url
714 Figures fatalities and injured counted together for the first and second quarter – for the second quarter the number of fatalities/injured of the incident TLP was not counted in this number. CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q1 2021, 14 April 2021, url; CRSS, Quarterly Security Report-Q2 2021, 27 July 2021, url
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
KP - including FATA Sindh Balochistan Punjab ICT AJK GB
Casualties by region Q1, 2021 and Q2, 2021 Data by CRSS
Fatalities Q1 Injuries Q1 Fatalities Q2 Injuries Q2