2. Governorate-level description of the security situation
2.8 Raqqa governorate
2.8.2 Background of the conflict and actors
The first attack on Raqqa governorate was on 1 August 2012, when ‘opposition forces’1230 seized the Suluk sub-district. On 19 September 2012, Tall Abyad followed, at the Turkish border, and on 4 March 2013, Raqqa city was seized.1231 On 11 February 2013, opposition forces, including Jabhat al-Nusra fighters, took control of the Taqba dam and Tabqa (Al-Thawra) city.1232
Raqqa became the first governorate centre completely taken from Syrian government’s control. On 15 August 2013, fighting broke out between the armed opposition forces and the emerging ISIL or ISIS (then an Al-Qaeda faction).1233 The clashes led to expulsion of the former and a complete takeover of Raqqa city by ISIL at end of December 2013.1234
Reports differ whether ISIL was evicted from Raqqa in January 2014. According to ISW, by 13-14 January 2013-14, ISIL had secured full control over the city and soon after started to issue its strict religious decrees, including bans on smoking and dress requirements for women.1235 However, a Stanford report on mapping militant organizations, reported, partly based on a NYT article, that Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and their allies drove ISIL out of Raqqa city on 6 January 2014 and that ISIL only recaptured it in July 2014.1236 On 29 June 2014, ISIL declared a caliphate with its capital in Raqqa city and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIL, as the caliph. The group called upon all Muslims to declare allegiance to the new caliphate.1237
Many human rights violations have been reportedly perpetrated by ISIL. The CoI has reported on massacres of civilians, killing and beheading captured soldiers, displaying the bodies and heads in Raqqa’s city squares.1238
Towards the end of 2016, international coalition forces started offensives against ISIL in Raqqa and other places. On 6 November 2016, SDF forces began to conquer main roads and rural villages, with
1228 Balanche, F., Sectarianism in Syria’s Civil War, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2018, url, pp. 25, 85
1229 Balanche, F., Sectarianism in Syria’s Civil War, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2018, url, p. 85
1230 The ‘opposition forces’ at that time consisted of Al Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and ‘members of the Islamic Front umbrella organization’. CISAC, Mapping Militant Organizations - Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Stanford University. Last modified August 2017, url; Roggio, Bill, Al Nusrah Front Seizes Control of Syrian City of Raqqah, Long War Journal, 8 March 2013, url
1231 ACU/IMU, Ar-Raqqa Governorate, Panoramic Report, December 2019, url, p. 15
1232 New York Times (The), Syrian Insurgents Claim to Control Large Hydropower dam, 11 February 2013, url
1233 Syria Direct, ISIS builds power base unchecked, takes over A-Raqqa, 16 August 2013, url; ACU/IMU, Ar-Raqqa Governorate, Panoramic Report, December 2019, url, p. 15
1234 ACU/IMU, Ar-Raqqa Governorate, Panoramic Report, December 2019, url, p. 15
1235 ISW, ISIS Governance in Syria, July 2014, url, p. 12
1236 CISAC, Mapping Militant Organizations - Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Stanford University. Last modified August 2017, url; partly based on: New York Times (The), Rebel Infighting Spreads to an Eastern Syrian City, 6 January 2014, url
1237 Al Jazeera, In declaring a caliphate, Islamic State draws a line in the sand, 30 June 2014, url
1238 UN Human Rights Council, Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic [A/HRC/28/69], 5 February 2015, url, p. 29 para 21-22
the aim to isolate Raqqa. In June 2017, SDF started a siege of the city and fiercely fought to drive ISIL out. On 17 October 2017, the last ISIL fighters surrendered and Raqqa came under SDF control.1239 This was considered by a Chatham House analyst ‘an emblematic loss for ISIS because it put an end to its claim of ruling a physical Islamic state’.1240
After the fighting was over, the city was ’a panorama of ruined buildings and rubble’1241 and was kept under SDF control until October 2019 (see Section 2.8.3).
2.8.2.1 ISIL
The main actor in the period before 2017 was ISIL, however, it was expelled from Raqqa city and governorate in 2017. Since that time, ISIL has carried out hit-and-run attacks, suicide attacks and bombings.1242 Between 2016 and 2017, ISIL had worked together with local affiliated groups in its actions against the SDF and governmental military forces in Raqqa, Deir Ez-Zor and Hasaka governorates. Notable groups were: Kaitib Bisha’r Al Nasr, Liwa al Ikhlas, Liwa Allah Akbar, Liwa Daraa Al Ansar, and Jaish Mo’ata al Islami. According to the Carter Center, ‘there are notable correlations between the locations of some of the heaviest fighting involving these groups and the locations of ongoing, residual ISIL attacks throughout 2018 and 2019. In particular, these correlations can be seen in Tabqa City, Raqqa City, and the stretch between al Basirah and Danaj towns south of Deir Ez Zor City’.1243
The below map (Map 13), created by the Carter Center, describes ISIL-linked activity in north-west Syria from 2016/2017 (red triangles) and ongoing ISIL activity between January 2018 and January 2019 (light red circles).The map shows that in Raqqa governorate, ISIL-linked activity was widespread between 2016 and 2017, a large area from Raqqa city and Tall Abyad at the Turkish border, and from Raqqa westwards to Tabqa (Al-Thawra) city. Between January 2018 and January 2019, ISIL-linked activity was still noted in a stretch of cities to the west and east of Raqqa, and in the international border town of Tall Abyad, but not in the rural countryside in between.1244
1239 CISAC, Mapping Militant Organizations – The Islamic State, Stanford University, Last modified September 2019, url;
Malsin, Jared. Raqqa Lies in Ruins as ISIS Near Defeat as Military Force, Time, n.d. [26 October 2017], url; Lund, A. Syria’s Civil War. Government Victory or Frozen Conflict?, Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut, December 2018, url, p. 22
1240 Guardian (The), Raqqa recaptured from Islamic State by US-backed forces. 17 October 2017, url
1241 Guardian (The), Raqqa recaptured from Islamic State by US-backed forces. 17 October 2017, url
1242 International Crisis Group, Squaring the Circles in Syria’s North East, 31 July 2019, url p. 16; Carter Center, A review of ISIS in Syria 2016-2019, Regional differences and an enduring legacy, March 2019, url, p. 10
1243 Carter Center, A review of ISIS in Syria 2016-2019, Regional differences and an enduring legacy, March 2019, url, p. 14
1244 Based on reading the map in Carter Center, A review of ISIS in Syria 2016-2019, Regional differences and an enduring legacy, March 2019, url, p. 15
Map 13: © Carter Center, ISIL-linked activity in northwest Syria from 2016 / 2017 (red triangles) and ongoing ISIL activity between January 2018 and January 2019 (light red circles) 1245
2.8.2.2 Syrian Democratic Forces
Since 2017, SDF has been in control of Raqqa governorate. The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) wrote about the SDF in Raqqa governorate:
‘Although this [SDF] is a mixed Kurdish-Arab force, the Syrian Kurds of the YPG are in control of the SDF. This creates tensions. Members of the new government in Raqqa and elsewhere have been murdered by unknown assailants, perhaps in order to sabotage the cooperation between Arabs and Kurds. Some accuse the YPG of working with the same Sunni tribal leaders who collaborated with ISIL, and there are also allegations of corruption’.1246
As of March 2020, the SDF controlled most of Raqqa governorate.1247
2.8.2.3 Turkey and affiliated armed groups
Following the Turkish-led incursion into northeast Syria in October 2019, the SNA together with Turkish armed forces was reported to be in control of the so called ‘safe zone’ established between Tall Abyad (Raqqa governorate) and Ras al Ain (Hasaka governorate).1248
After an agreement was reached between Turkey and Russia on 23 October 2019, the SDF withdrew on 28 October 2019 from the area along the Turkish-Syrian border between Tall Abyad and Ras al Ain, giving way to Turkish-supported non-state armed groups.1249 In Tall Abyad, the Turkish-backed rebel
1245 Carter Center, A review of ISIS in Syria 2016-2019, Regional differences and an enduring legacy, March 2019, url, p. 15
1246 Netherlands (The), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Country of Origin Information Report Syria, The security situation, July 2019, url, p. 39
1247 Based on reading of Map 2: ISW, Control of terrain in Syria, 31 March 2020, see url
1248 USDOD, Operation Inherent Resolve. Lead Inspector General Report to the US Congress, October 1, 2019‒December 31, 2019, 4 February 2020, url, p. 53
1249 Carter Center, Weekly Conflict Summary, 28 October-3 November 2019, url
group SNA has reportedly become ‘largely’ in control of the city. The SNA has reportedly committed executions and looting of property in the newly seized areas of the northeast.1252 The SNA is, according to Clingendael, under control of Turkey, which ‘supplies the SNA with training, salaries and weapons in exchange for its participation in Turkish military operations in and outside of its buffer zones.’ 1253
2.8.2.4 Syrian Arab Army and affiliated armed groups
On 14 October 2019, the SAA, after a seven years absence, took control of ‘long swathes of the Turkish-Syrian border’, after the SDF ‘agreed to a Russian-brokered deal to try to hold off a Turkish attack’.1254
According to Gregory Waters, the following SAA units divisions were deployed in Raqqa governorate with the name of the unit and the last known date of deployment, as of 17 March 2020:
Republican Guard: 104th Brigade/476th Battalion – Ain Issa, Raqqa – 20 November 2019;
2nd Corps: 14th Special Forces Division 554th Regiment – southern Raqqa – 29 February 2020;
5th Corps: 103rd Artillery Regiment – Raqqa Province – 4 November 2019; 47th Regiment/2nd Battalion – Ain Issa, Raqqa – 8 November 2019; 5th Brigade/2nd Battalion – Ain Issa, Raqqa – 9 December 2019; 7th Brigade/3rd Battalion – Ain Issa, Raqqa – 26 October 2019.1255
As of March 2020, the GoS controlled areas in Raqqa governorate south of and along the Euphrates river.1256
On 9 December 2019, Russian troops moved into Raqqa, following an agreement with the SDF, to guarantee safety after the departure of the US forces.1257 According to the February 2020 USDOD report, ‘at least 300 Russian military police are deployed in northeastern Syria, occupying the towns of Kobani, Raqqah, Tal Tamr, Amuda and Ayn Issa – areas previously occupied by U.S. forces.’ Russia, in collaboration with the GoS, also deployed forces to the Tabqa Dam on the Euphrates River west of Raqqa city.1258