Maximising defence capacities by allocating societal resources : Balancing the objectives in planning for a total defence structure

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Maximising defence capacities by

allocating societal resources

Balancing the objectives in planning for a total defence

structure

Kristin Leckström

Thesis, 30 ECTS (hp) War Studies

Master’s Programme in Politics and War Spring 2020

Supervisor: Sofia Ledberg Word count: 15 975

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Acknowledgement

I would like to thank my supervisor, Sofia Ledberg, for her guidance through the writing process. Furthermore, I wish to extend my greatest gratitude to Björn Nevhage, Elin Edman, Hanna Langéen and the rest of the team at Structor Riskbyrån for their willingness to support the project. Thank you all for contributing with your knowledge, insights, advise and encouragement.

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Abstract

This thesis aims to investigate how the objectives of neoliberal economic thought and total defence structure are relatable in defence planning. With a theoretical base in research on outsourcing of military logistics, the thesis sets out to contribute to the field of research by conceptualising the objectives of a total defence structure as a way of understanding the defence posture in Sweden since 2015. This is analysed through an in-depth study of Swedish defence planning reports and interviews with relevant actors using a thematic approach of data analysis. The research identifies that the objectives of neoliberal economic thought and total defence structure correlate to a certain extent but there are also some discrepancies that affect the defence planning and ability. The result indicates that there is a potential to combine the objectives more efficiently if the conceptualisations were developed to fit the current societal structure where outsourcing is a common practice.

Key words: defence planning, military logistics, outsourcing, Sweden, total defence, transport sector

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1 Introduction

The market for force and presence of private security actors has a long history which has influenced warfare and war science in numerous substantive ways (Leria 2016:30). After the end of the Cold War, the phenomenon of privatisation and specialisation expanded and gained importance in the defence sector as a result of changing geopolitics. The advancement of military outsourcing has since then influenced the academic debate where discussions often relate to wars fought by Western armies after 9/11 focusing on the deployment of private military and security companies (PMSCs). The use of private contractors has increased the number of actors and interests in these settings which influence civil-military relations and collaboration (Berndtsson & Kinsey 2016). While the majority of contractors are involved in supply and support services (de Nevers 2012) rather than providing armed personnel, the focus of academic research has been the contrary (Phelps 2016:14-16). Most studies are state-centric and centred around the themes of impacts on sovereignty and monopoly of violence (Avant 2005; Krahmann 2013; Verkuil 2007), accountability and control of actors (Leander 2010), ethical debates (Pattison 2014) and effectiveness (Dunigan 2011). Logistics concern the supply of military operations and is therefore a vital component for strategic planning and absence of this perspective in the academic debate of war science can be misleading. Furthermore, the research thus far is mostly focusing on international operations in a US or UK context (Berndtsson 2019) and to improve the understanding of military outsourcing this thesis sets out to test the theories in a national setting. On the surface there seem to be consensus among researchers in the field of military outsourcing about the central elements, yet looking closer to the area of military logistics some differences emerge of whether research on PMSCs can be used to understand the occurrences of outsourcing of military logistics (Kinsey 2016:20-26). Logistics differs from other aspects of war due to its importance for all other components and even though the nature of military logistics has remained the same throughout the history of war the character of defence logistics has changed (Uttley & Kinsey 2012:414). Therefore, it constitutes an interesting point of departure for studying defence planning.

This study has the ambition to contribute to the field of research by exploring outsourcing of military logistics in a Swedish national context focusing on the transport sector. Therefore, this thesis aims to investigate issues associated with creating an integrated defence where private actors are a key component. Exploring this case is interesting as the reinstated total defence system is based on the idea of reliable supply chains and support ability from a whole of society approach, whereas the development of outsourcing favours objectives such as privatisation and

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cost-reduction. The research question is then: How do the objectives of neoliberal economic reforms and total

defence structure relate in formulating defence strategies?

Objectives are hereby defined as a concretisation of favoured values to achieve in the defence planning process. Keeney argues that “values are what we care about” (1992:3) which is an abstract concept, and by moving from values to objectives the analysis is more tangible while avoiding a too technical approach to the research question. This enquiry is also theoretically puzzling as some scholars argue that it is not sufficient enough to study outsourcing of military logistics using the same parameters as studies of PMSCs with armed personnel. Hence, there is a need for further research focusing specifically on logistics and looking beyond international operations (Erbel 2016:231-233).

To address this neglected aspect pointed out in previous research, this thesis presents an in-depth case study of outsourcing of military logistics focusing on transports, relying on a combination of data collected from defence planning reports and official state documents as well as semi-structured interviews with relevant actors. By combining this data, the study seeks to explore how the objectives of outsourcing relate with planning of military logistics in a domestic Swedish context. The method of analysis is thematic in the sense that data is qualitatively analysed and coded in order to find key terms or expressions linked to theory (Braun & Clarke 2006).

The following section presents the existing literature and current debate among scholars in the field of military outsourcing as a way to establish the ground for this thesis. Chapter three presents the theoretical framework and elaborates on the discussion of relevance of the study. The fourth chapter introduces the chosen method and arguments for why that method was chosen. Said section also outlines the research design and means for data collection. The following analysis explores how the objectives relate to each other in the material. Lastly, there is a summarising discussion on the implications of the findings for theory and policy and how this can guide future research.

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2 Review of previous research

Many scholars researching privatisation of security and civil-military relations highlight the historical differences between military outsourcing in general and outsourcing of military logistics. Even though the two concepts are closely intertwined (Erbel & Kinsey 2018; Moore 2017) there are indeed some important disparities to consider. As the literature review is tailored to the stated research objective it does not survey the entire literature on military outsourcing, but it touches upon several subsets of ongoing discussions.

Military logistics have been outsourced to private actors throughout history however there has been an increase in the scale and scope of the reliance on these actors to supply military actions during the past decades (Erbel & Kinsey 2018). The importance of logistics is evident in Martin van Creveld’s seminal work Supplying War (1977), explaining the link between strategy and military logistics as:

Strategy, like politics, is said to be the art of the possible; but surely what is possible is determined not merely by numerical strengths, doctrine, intelligence, arms and tactics, but, in the first place, by the hardest facts of all: those concerning requirements, supplies available and expected, organization and administration, transportation and arteries of communication (van Creveld 1977:1).

Arguably logistics is central for the use of force because “it determines what military forces can be delivered to an operational theatre, the time it will take to deliver that force, the scale and scope of forces that can be supported once there, and the tempo of operations” (Uttley & Kinsey 2012:401). The authors argue that logistics also include the industrial supply base and capabilities to plan for its involvement in future military operations (Uttley & Kinsey 2012:403). By adding the perspective of industrial involvement, the aforementioned authors move the definition of logistics into the current context where logistics is increasingly operated by private actors. Moore (2017) agrees with this conclusion arguing that the increasing reliance on private actors to provide logistical support is as significant as the development toward network-centric warfare and the ‘Revolution of Military Affairs’ (RMA). His study focuses on the scale, scope and emergence of the US military’s dependence on private companies concluding that the case can guide further research.

The question of why outsourcing of military activities occur and how this influence systematic organisation is often researched by focusing on private security services, meaning armed PMSCs. Singer (2008) argues for two broader developments driving the emergence of this industry: the

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transformation in the nature of warfare and the ‘privatisation revolution’. The transformation of warfare has created new demands opening up market opportunities for private companies. This is supported by the increased privatisation which provides a logic for and legitimises the entrance of market rationales into the public domain. Singer’s arguments correspond with defence economists, such as Keith Hartley (2011), who’s central assumption of the shift from “make to buy”, is that private actors display efficiency incentives that the public domain lacks. Hence, privatisation and specialisation are objectives for military outsourcing, especially in the logistics sector since these activities lies outside of purely military activities. Singer, Krahmann (2010) and Avant (2005) share the understanding about the link to military downsizing in this development. However, Krahmann argues that such functional arguments do not sufficiently explain variation in contracting with private actors among similar states. In her study focusing on the US, the UK and Germany, she concludes that ideology, political-economic organisation and civil-military relations are intervening variables explaining military outsourcing. This view is shared by Petersohn (2011, 2017), as he puts emphasis on the power of norms and ideas in shaping the shift from uniform-heavy operations to civilian-heavy. These norms and ideas represent the objectives of privatisation and specialisation, constituting the process for militaries turning into core competency forces. Taylor (2004) further highlights core competency as a driver for outsourcing, where armed forces outsource non-combat activities. His emphasis on the dynamic nature of defence posture sets him aside from other scholars in the field which is an important contribution. The tendency to outsource can be explained through examining the Swedish defence posture and its central elements. Scholars have used these drivers to examine outsourcing of military logistics (Erbel 2017; Erbel & Kinsey 2016) creating a link to how norms and ideas can affect the defence posture (Cusumano 2016; Krahmann 2010). Thus, studies can gain from including elements specific to the defence posture of the country in focus which in the case of Sweden includes objectives of total defence.

Kinsey’s research expands the scope of analyses concerning military outsourcing by including logistics as a separate entity. In Corporate Soldiers from 2006, he examines the UK security service industry and considers the history of which to extend beyond the neoliberal revolution of the 1980s (Kinsey 2006:64-74). He makes an important contribution by distinguishing the important differences between supply service contracting and armed private security providers. Most literature in the field implicitly suggests that the phenomenon of logistics outsourcing can be understood through the same parameters as private security companies. Singer identifies three types of companies for the basis of his typology (2008:151-229), but these are not divided by the different services they provide. Even though he expresses the importance of logistics, he overlooks this

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perspective when formulating problems with examinations of military combat services. Krahmann tries to overcome the same issue by using private military companies (PMCs) as an umbrella term, which correlates with her research agenda (Krahmann 2013). However, it becomes problematic as not all types of contractors have the same impact and role in military missions or civil-military relations. Depending on what kind of services companies perform, the implications for missions and policy differ. Thus, it is important to differentiate companies according to the type of services they perform. What these scholars have in common is the conclusion that supply chain is a central component for the use of force which is a leading argument for this study.

In Operational Logistics, Moshe Kress (2016) develops a framework focusing on the operational level rather than employing a more general stance like the other scholars mentioned. According to Kress, logistics can be divided by two attributes: the scientific and the artistic facets. Logistics can be regarded as a purely quantitative discipline with parameters such as volume and numbers allowing mathematical modelling relating to the scientific aspect. The artistic facet highlights the qualitative components of logistics which are not readily quantifiable, such as creativity, intuition and mental flexibility in the process of planning for military logistics (Kress 2016:7-8). Kress uses the division of functional levels of military operations – strategic, operational and tactical – to address logistics. The book focuses on the operational level and presents seven properties or criteria for evaluating defence planning: flexibility, attainability, continuity, tempo, simplicity, survivability and efficiency (Kress 2016:54). This thesis utilises the “soft” principles related to the artistic facet of Kress’s theoretical framework but also applies other aspects that are not as bound to a specific level of logistics.

Partly because of the long history of dependence on contractors for military logistics, governments often have more long-term commitments with these contractors in relation to PMSCs. Thus, indicating a need to reconsider the overwhelming focus on outsourcing functions to armed contractors. Even though the aforementioned scholars argue that military logistics is a critically important topic, most research in recent years focusing on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have studied PMSCs with armed personnel. Erbel and Kinsey (2018) emphasise the importance of putting logistics at the centre of study in the field of War Studies. Their article also connects the RMA to the ‘revolution in military logistics’ (RML), naming the latter as a prerequisite for the former. However, both developments are continuously driving each other. The authors argue that the increasing complexity and diversification of the military supply chain and logistics systems have been given little thought in recent academic debate. By using van Creveld’s definition of the link

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between strategy and logistics, Erbel and Kinsey identify five factors affecting this relation: policy, resources, information, geography and the adversary (Erbel & Kinsey 2018:523). After using these factors in analysing the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the main argument is the centrality of logistics as determining occurrence, conduct and outcome of war.

Several authors also examine consequences of military outsourcing and associated risks. Verkuil (2007) highlights how military outsourcing affects state sovereignty through a changed ownership of decision-making processes and how reliance on contractors risks undermining sovereignty. Berndtsson (2016) uses this argument as a starting point in researching military profession, private contractors and the state in Sweden. The aim of his study is to examine what is known about the significance of privatisation in military organisations and the effects on state control. The main contribution to the field is to acknowledge the differences among contractors as it influences the effect on ownership. In a later study, Berndtsson continue this discussion through an in-depth case study of Swedish military profession (2019) and perceptions of military personnel about PMSCs thus offering an insight into the relational aspects of military outsourcing. According to Berndtsson (2014), Bobbitt’s idea of the “market-state” can provide a conceptual foundation for studies of military outsourcing. The increasing influence of market ideas such as competition, cost-effectiveness and outsourcing in the organisation of military institutions cannot be underestimated (Bobbitt 2002:234-237).

In line with the arguments about the dynamic nature of defence posture there has been a change in the organisation of the Swedish Armed Forces (SAF) leading up to the reinstatement of the total defence in 2015. Total defence is not a new concept as it characterised the defence posture of Sweden during the Cold War. Total defence policies involve a whole of society approach to national defence planning and concern both military and civil defence preparations. The collaboration between armed forces, government ministries, private business actors and civil society organisations is thereby institutionalised which is what distinguishes total defence from other defence structures. A general end of such a strategy is to deter an enemy and raise the costs of an invasion for the invader. Total defence policies are also gaining attention since contemporary threats are blurring the lines between war and peace as well as challenging the military and non-military divide (Wither 2020). In 2015, the Swedish Ministry of Defence and the Civil Contingencies Agency were assigned with conducting a total defence proposal which resulted in a Defence Commission report. The report specifically discussed challenges with reinstating a total defence policy in a changed socioeconomic setting where the supply chain of critical services and goods are

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operated by an increased number of actors (Sweden, Government Offices 2015). The transport sector is deeply integrated with global trade and is dependent upon private companies to a greater extent than before which has led to a complexity regarding responsibilities in demanding situations. For example, the rail transport sector is deregulated with several domestic and international operators and road traffic is often operated by international companies (Ingemarsdotter & Lundén 2019:16-18). This relates to the arguments discussed above where scholars agree on the impact of the rise of neoliberal economic ideas for defence postures. As such, specific concepts based in this economic perspective serves as a part of the theoretical framework of this thesis to guide the analysis. These will then be complemented with the stated objectives of total defence policies explained in section 3.2.

Contribution to the debate

This thesis addresses several findings from the literature discussed above and builds on the identified gaps. As mentioned earlier, the aspects of supplying and supporting operations have been overlooked in previous research, while the main focus has been the role of PMSCs in combat roles. The literature discussing such companies is however important for the purpose of this thesis as the values favouring outsourcing are intertwined with reasoning for outsourcing military logistics. Furthermore, the previous research almost exclusively focuses on international operations carried out by the US, UK or other NATO-countries, whereas smaller countries are neglected. By exploring outsourcing of military logistics in Sweden, this thesis aims to bridge both these gaps in the existing literature. The research discussed above guides the concretisation of the neoliberal economic objectives examined here. However, there is a need to add other elements to capture the specifics of the Swedish defence posture which is why the objectives of a total defence structure are included. Since these are mostly derived from the empirical material, this combination of objectives constitutes the main contribution of this thesis. Theoretically this thesis contributes by combining theoretical approaches opening up the field to interdisciplinary conceptualisation which can enrichen the debate. It also contributes to the endeavour of putting logistics in the centre of attention for War Studies. Lastly, it explores the possibility to move the theorical focus from an international setting into a national context. This refocus is important since outsourcing in a national context can affect outsourcing in international operations and vice versa. Most researchers highlight the centrality of transport in support functions for the military, but few studies are focused around this component specifically which indicates a need for further research.

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3 Theoretical framework

This section introduces the theoretical framework guiding the analysis. By combining theoretical conceptualisations from the literature on outsourcing of military logistics with central concepts in neoliberal economic thought and relating that to the objectives of the total defence structure, the aim is to investigate the nexus between these approaches. The first contribution of this study is the theoretical framework itself, where the objectives were developed through an abductive approach moving between theory and empirics.

Neoliberal economic objectives

3.1.1 Privatisation and specialisation

One of the objectives of outsourcing is that adopting market reforms leads to more efficient supply chains since the market is perceived to be more productive than the military. This ties together with the idea of core competency meaning that organisations should focus on a few unique capabilities that differentiate them from competitors and that they have to perform themselves. The change in scale and scope of logistics outsourcing can partly be explained as a consequence of technological sophistication in many weapon systems. This caused soldiers to focus on becoming specialised in a certain weapon system and pay less attention to performing support services (Erbel & Kinsey 2016:71-76). On an organisational level this led to core competency armies focusing on generating maximum firepower and outsource other services. This development is not unique for militaries but rather following a trend of other sectors as well where organisations mostly focus on a specific task. This has led to a bias towards business solutions and against the government as a service provider. Avant (2005), Singer (2008) and Cusumano and Kinsey (2016) all argue that the preference for privatisation is motivated by an ideological belief in the superiority of the market.

3.1.2 Cost-effectiveness and lean production

Identifying and implementing cost-effective solutions is a key objective for outsourcing and it is often argued that outsourcing is the cheaper option to carry out public services. A main argument used to gather political support for privatisation reforms is how it is financially beneficial to taxpayers as well. The actual evidence for the cost-effectiveness is limited (Cusumano & Kinsey 2016) and even if there is a financial gain in a short-term perspective, it is contested whether this is also true in the long-term (Cusumano 2016:80). Despite the difficulties associated with measuring effectiveness, the superiority of such measures is considered a fact. The concept of cost-effectiveness encompasses a variety of elements. For example, just-in-time delivery based on the

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idea of reduced stockpiles is one of the main goals. In Sweden, this was specifically articulated in the reorganisation of the military in the 1990s presented as the Network Based Defence which led the development marked by rationality and cost-efficiency. The just-in-time approach can lead to weakened supply chain security since the flow of goods and services is more sensible to disruptions (Berndtsson 2014:550). This objective is especially relevant for the transport sector and has affected the development in recent years.

3.1.3 Increased capacity and flexibility

By outsourcing certain activities to private actors, the military can increase manpower and get access to specialised skills and knowledge outside of the military. This increases capacity in the specialised activities as well as the capacity in the military functions since it allows uniformed personnel to focus on warfighting operations (Dunigan 2016:245). Such an approach builds on a desire to effectively and efficiently use defence resources by asking the question of which services the armed forces should or should not acquire from others (Taylor 2004). Flexibility in this context concerns the different organisational elements between the private, public and military sector. Private companies positioned outside of government bureaucracy can act more rapidly in times of crises. The deployment of military personnel or civil servants with deployment-related roles takes time as it demands approval from multiple levels of government (Dunigan 2016:246). The growing number of private companies in the transport sector increases capacities because more vehicles are available in times of crises. Private companies can also offer more specialised transport solutions which could increase both capacity and flexibility (Ingemarsdotter & Lundén 2019:16-18).

Objectives of a total defence structure

3.2.1 Supply chain security

Research concerning supply chain management and specifically supply chain security receives increasing attention in academic literature regarding business. However, this perspective is neglected in regard to military supply chains and logistics systems (Erbel & Kinsey 2018). The increased outsourcing of military logistics and transfer of ownership of skills and knowledge into the private sector has resulted in less visible and controllable layers in the supply chains. This is associated with a risk of volatile chains undermining operational endurance and effectiveness. The contemporary strategic uncertainty where rapid military responsiveness is demanded builds on stabile logistics capabilities and the success of an operation is dependent on functioning supply chains (Wither 2020). After the Cold War, the modernisation of military supply chains in a Swedish context were characterised by a reduction of stockpiles to the lowest possible level with reduced

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inventories leaving the Armed forces at the end of a fragile line of supply. The concept of stockpiling and a just-in-case principle were discarded in favour of more cost-efficient methods of organisation for logistics (Skoglund 2012:196). The development of supply chain security is stated as a main objective for reinstating the total defence system in Sweden. A report submitted by the Defence Commission in May 2019 stressed the issue of well-functioning logistics chains and described it as a main priority for the mid- and long-term defence planning. The report concluded that the current organisation is not designed to meet an armed attack on Swedish territory and argued for the importance of building a necessary infrastructure in order to meet the demands of an attack (Sweden, Defence Commission 2019).

3.2.2 Self-sufficiency and ‘insourcing’

The supply of the armed forces has historically been characterised by a more comprehensive self-sufficiency than the current system. The question of who delivers support services if an armed attack occurs is high on the agenda in defence planning but is associated with a number of challenges. As a consequence of increased outsourcing in the logistics sector the involvement of private businesses is key to the development of a robust supply system. By integrating the idea of core competency, the military was redefined from being relatively self-sufficient to focusing on combat activities to a greater extent (Erbel & Kinsey 2018). The Defence Bill of 2015, through which the total defence concept was reinstated, expressed the issue of how to supply the armed forces with critical logistical support as a reason for reactivating the strategy (Sweden, Government Offices 2015). In this aspect, outsourcing of military logistics has complicated the defence planning. According to Erbel, it is unlikely that any state will attempt to ‘insource’ military capabilities, meaning return outsourced activities to the armed forces (2016:235). However, in the Swedish case, it might be possible to enhance preparedness for securing supply chains by adopting a whole of society approach that the total defence concept builds on. The objective of self-sufficiency needs altercation in a new setting and one way meet it is to change the perspective of insourcing to include the entire system of private companies delivering support services. Hence, this indicates a broadening of the concept of how to supply the armed forces while staying in line with the objectives of the defence planning process (Wither 2020).

3.2.3 Operational endurance and effectiveness

Territorial defence is back on the agenda in the Nordic region as a result of the deteriorated security situation in Europe following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. In Sweden, this led to a revived total defence planning where a whole of society approach to security influences the strategic posture.

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As such, operational endurance and effectiveness constitute a cornerstone for the current defence planning process (Wither 2020). Having a robust military defence with support from civil defence actors is stated as the main priority for the SAF in policy documents as well as the mid- and long-term planning for the military. According to Wither, this objective builds on the concepts of resilience and territorial defence. He describes resilience as society’s ability to resist and recover from societal shocks through a combination of “civilian, economic, commercial and military factors” (2020:62). Territorial defence refers to the strategic defence posture which is characterised by a defensive approach and an intent to deter by denial. To reach the objective of endurance, the armed forces need to have adequate support from civilian resources, for example in the transport sector, which rests upon a strong cooperation in the planning process. A recent report from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) identifies the significant role of private sector in the context of renewed total defence planning as vital societal functions, including transports, are in many cases operated by private companies (Ingemarsdotter & Lundén, 2019:51-52).

Arguments concerning theory

The literature on outsourcing focusing on neoliberal economic ideas has been subject to a fair amount of criticism. Some scholars argue that functionalist explanations such as market reforms in defence planning fail to address the different approaches by countries who outsource military functions (Cusumano & Kinsey, 2016:201-206). Despite the criticism, it is used as a point of departure in this thesis because the objectives with such ideas affects the defence policy and planning in Sweden and are therefore highly relevant to the topic at hand. The liberal model in general aims to limit governmental power by establishing politically neutral and professional armed forces, similar to the US and the UK. Whereas a republican model favours conscripted citizen-soldiers to centralise security (Krahmann 2010:16-18). In relation to these ideas, Sweden constitutes a puzzling case since outsourcing of military logistics has increased while the armed forces use conscription thus indicating a combination of liberal and republican influences. Furthermore, with the exception of the works of Hartley and to some extent Cusumano, theorists often neglects the economic dimensions of market democracies in analyses. The economic dimensions presented in this chapter could adversely affect defence planning and military performance. One potential challenge with using the neoliberal economic theories is to be sensitive to the potential of other factors shaping the defence planning process as well and to not see the functionalist explanations as the only truth (Cusumano & Kinsey 2016:208). To address this challenge, this thesis combines the functionalist perspective with ideational and political-instrumentalist explanations to widen the analytical scope. By adding the objectives of a total defence structure, this thesis aims at examining

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the issue of balancing the different objectives in defence planning and also contributing with a modified theoretical framework for analysis.

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4 Methodology

This section discusses methodological considerations concerning data collection and analysis that influenced the study, and arguments in favour of and possible criticism of the methodological choices are debated.

Research design

The research field of military logistics is old from a formal perspective, however, there is a lack of modern research focused on cases beyond expeditionary operations by the US or UK. Logistics and supply chain management is often researched from a positivistic approach influencing the ontological and epistemological considerations. However, the field of military logistics is not bound to any specific paradigmatic perspective and a diversification of approaches can enrich the debate (Skoglund 2012:105-108). This thesis builds on an abductive logic of inquiry associated with an interpretivist approach. It is designed as a single in-depth case study of the objectives relevant for Swedish defence planning. One concern is the issue of generalisability of the results as some arguments are specific for the Swedish context (Berndtsson 2017:82-88). That said, it is also an inherent strength that a case can be intensively examined. Rather than focusing on generalising across broad populations, this study is concerned with examining objectives influencing defence planning based on a total defence idea and thus contributing to the academic debate on outsourcing of military logistics (George & Bennett 2005:38-40). This study serves the purpose of understanding similar cases with widespread outsourcing of logistics and an ambition to plan for a comprehensive defence strategy (Gerring 2004:342). This case also offers a chance to apply theoretical concepts derived from previous literature and combine this with concepts found in the empirical material thus contributing to the development of our knowledge about military outsourcing and the objectives articulated in defence planning. Even though these are central for the strategic posture they are relatively unknown or at least not examined in a theoretical study like this. The choice of research design is based on the suitability for conducting a qualitative analysis that allowed for a comprehensive examination of one case (Bryman 2012:380-384).

Case selection

There are a number of reasons for choosing Sweden’s defence planning and focusing on logistics. To begin with, Sweden has outsourced a variety of previously state-operated activities, including military logistics, during the past decades in line with the development in many other countries. Following the economic slump during the 1990s a neoliberal policy reorientation led to the

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adoption of competition-oriented strategies for critical infrastructural systems previously operated by the state. These reforms were not as market-radical as in, for example, the UK but rather adjusted to fit the Swedish welfare state (Kuhlmann & Wollmann 2014:177). Therefore, the reinstatement of the total defence strategy happened in a new setting different from when a similar strategic posture was in place during the Cold War (Wither 2020). Because of the changed setting it is interesting to examine the defence planning process after the reinstatement in 2015. By focusing on logistics, this thesis aims to contribute to the limited literature concerning outsourcing in this sector by considering it as a separate entity. Lastly, logistics is identified as a foundation for military capabilities in both domestic and international operations. As such, logistics provides a logical starting point for analysing the defence planning in Sweden. The transport sector was chosen as a focal point for the analysis to delimit the material and reach deeper in the analysis. This choice was made because transports are identified as a sector of critical importance for infrastructure during crises or war by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (Ingemarsdotter & Lundén 2019) and transports are also mentioned throughout the theoretical material as a vital function for logistics.

Strategy for data collection

The strategy for collecting material is divided in two: documents and interviews. The written sources consist of reports by the SAF concerning the long-term defence planning as well as official reports of the Swedish Government (henceforth: SOU) and reports about defence budgetary decisions and political objectives relevant for the strategic posture. These documents produce significant insights into the publicly stated interests guiding policy planning. While providing detailed descriptions of Swedish defence policies these sources do not, however, present theoretically grounded analyses. This thesis can therefore contribute by uncovering the underlying conditions guiding defence policies. The long-term planning by the SAF, perspektivstudie, offers a suitable starting point for analysing objectives of defence planning since they are clearly articulated. By combining these documents, it is possible to gain access to a wider perspective of the Swedish defence posture. The long-term planning was chosen because it discusses objectives of defence planning on a higher level of abstraction than reports with a narrower time frame. As Bryman (2012:554-555) argues, there are risks with treating such documents as comprehensive and transparent representations of reality. The reports are written in a certain context and for a specific audience and are not solely designed to be examined by social researchers and by combining documents with interviews the analysis reaches beyond oversimplified descriptions of outsourcing of military logistics. Since this thesis employs an in-depth aim with the purpose of reaching a more

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comprehensive understanding for a phenomenon, it is necessary to study not only the articulations of objectives in defence planning documents and government reports, but also to study the ways in which these are received by relevant actors in the field (Bryman 2012:554-558).

Semi-structured interviews serve as an additional means of data collection in order to explore the research question. This method is suitable since it allows for a conversation concerning perceptions and conceptions of the respondents. Furthermore, this approach allows for a more diversified structure of the interview questions which is appropriate when respondents have various responsibilities and professions. Questions do not need to be asked in the same way or order in each interview allowing a natural flow of the discussion and the researcher can get more detailed answers (Brinkmann & Kvale 2015:31-34). Open-ended questions were favoured since it gives the respondents further freedom to answer the question as they wish, which can enrich the analysis (Halperin & Heath 2017:288-292). Therefore, semi-structured interviews were considered to be the best approach for the purpose of this study. In doing so, it is important to recognise the risk that qualitative research and interview data may be overinterpreted. This is partly the reason for choosing to use both interviews and written documents. Combining official reports with semi-structured interviews offers a potential to gain a richer image and understanding for the objectives in a defence planning process (Berndtsson 2017:86-87). Furthermore, interviews allow a more exhaustive examination of the themes and topics found in the documents or to uncover issues not articulated in the texts. Lastly, there are ethical concerns involved in using interviews for data collection that were considered throughout the research process. Informed consent was obtained before the interview started and an understanding for ethical issues was taken into account during the interview situation as well as in the transcription and translation phase. The interviewees were given the opportunity to remain anonymous and comment or change statements if wanted (Brinkmann & Kvale 2015:85, 91). Another consideration related to this is that the translation of quotes from interviews was done by the researcher and to stay close to the original material, this process was carried out with caution to linguistic details.

Data analysis

The qualitative data is analysed through a thematic analysis. Identifying themes and sub-themes in texts or other qualitative material is a basis for much social science research. This is done in the initial exploratory phase of research to identify central categorisations that are crucial for the latter descriptive and concluding phases. By explicitly explaining how themes are established in relation to the data, the methodological choices are made assessable (Braun & Clarke 2006). One of the

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benefits with the method lies in its flexibility as a research tool since it can be used in a variety of theoretical approaches. The criticism of the method often refers to this flexibility as a lack of clear boundaries and concise guidelines. Without knowing how researchers went about analysing their data, it is difficult to evaluate their outcomes or conclusions (Bryman 2012:580). Despite these challenges, thematic analysis is used because of the advantages associated with the method and how it correlates with the aim of this study. According to Ryan and Bernard (2003), themes can be defined as “abstract (and often fuzzy) constructs that link not only expressions found in texts but also expressions found in images, sounds, and objects” (p. 87). The authors further explain that a theme is identified when it is possible to answer the question “What is this an expression of?”. In line with the paradigmatic structure of this thesis, themes come from both the empirical data and from previous theoretical understandings. Hence, an abductive approach is combined with influences of theoretical sensitivity, which is also the favoured technique by Ryan and Bernard. They present a detailed discussion on what to look for when conducting a thematic analysis which will guide the strategy for data analysis in this thesis. Finding topics or reoccurring regularities served as a way to identify the objectives in focus in this study. Expressions of the objectives were found by searching for similarities and differences and compare them across units of data. Another question to ask the material is what is not there which is a reversed technique to look for missing data. This approach needs to be exercised with caution so that data is not manipulated. Lastly, by using a theory-related technique it is possible to investigate how qualitative data can illuminate questions related to social science (Ryan & Bernard 2003). The themes were coded using a software to help structure the analysis. The coding was done manually and requires a familiarity to the research field. Therefore, theme identification involves a judgement by the researcher and to enhance validity of the judgements the arguments are made explicit and clear in section 4.5 (Braun & Clarke 2006).

Analytical framework

In order to operationalise the theoretical framework, this thesis uses the concepts of aforementioned scholars to specify what is being analysed and how. By doing so, the more general categorisations presented in the theory section are translated to concrete analytical tools used to interpret the empirical material. With reference to the stated purpose and research question of this thesis, the analytical framework specifies how the different objectives are identified and balanced in the empirical material. In order to answer how the objectives relate, the analysis aims to explore how phrases or wordings used to explain the different objectives are compatible or if they contrast each other. Specifying the expressions that this thesis evaluates also increases the transparency of

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the research process. Kress (2016:51) presents a number of so-called properties important for the design of defence planning that can be used to measure the quality of the plan. This thesis adopts some of the parameters presented by Kress and other scholars to guide the analysis.

The neoliberal economic factors deriving from theory, and to some extent the empirical material, are categorised as specialisation and privatisation, cost-effectiveness and lean production, and increased capacity and flexibility. These broad themes are uncovered by looking for more specific expressions or concepts. In accordance with neoliberal economic reforms, and as stated by Kress (2016:36), privatisation and specialisation in relation to military logistics can be understood as a shift towards commercial practices, private sector partnerships and reconstruction initiatives. This is measured through expressions of the relevance of optimisation of costs in relation to benefits and resource allocation. At an operational level this means that decisions are made based on trade-offs and marginal utilities (Kress 2016:38). This ties together with cost-effectiveness since the objective is identified by looking for expressions of the relation between input and output. At a tactical level this is practiced by balancing economic considerations against operational effectiveness and support of supply (Dunigan 2016:246-247). Lean production relates to cost-effectiveness as both objectives are identified through expressions of downsizing and a logistics organisation characterised by just-in-time delivery (Skoglund 2012:196-197). Thus, correlating with Kress’s principle of attainability in the sense that following the idea of lean production and cost-effectiveness risks jeopardising attainability of supply at the tactical level of the logistics network (2016:51). Increased capacity and flexibility, as two of the most commonly noted objectives of outsourcing, both relate to the idea that using private actors in logistics networks enables better utilisation of the armed forces. In defence planning this is often expressed through the ability to quickly respond to changing conditions. Moreover, central themes to examine are mentions of decreased stockpiles and limitations of storage facilities or transportation nodes (Kress 2016:51-54).

The objectives of total defence policy are presented as: Operational endurance and effectiveness, supply chain security and self-sufficiency and ‘insourcing’. Because of its centrality for planning military organisations, analysing operational endurance includes a variety of dimensions and the focus moves between all levels of logistics. The objective is manifested primarily by allocating resources among competing demands in order to enhance ability and operational effectiveness (Kress 2016:38-40). This is observed in the material through mentions of combined defence ability of the total defence system. More specified factors considered are mental agility, meaning the ability

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to react fast to incoming information, and cognitive consonance, which means that the different actors share a common understanding of a situation. The latter factor is affected by how communication is distributed among the actors within the system (Kress 2016:39-41). Supply chain security is analysed by expressions of the importance to prevent disturbances in the flow of supply between the actors. This affects all levels of logistics since the tactical level is dependent on proper planning for supply at a strategic level. Supply chains can be defined as a network that works together to enable flows of supply. Military supply chains differ from other businesses because of a greater need for geographic proximity of supplies to the operating units who are the end consumers (Erbel & Kinsey 2018). Lastly, self-sufficiency is measured through expressions of the availability of resources on short notice across the area of operation. This is an indicator of the level of independence concerning supply and support services in the different military units (Erbel 2016:234-236). However, there needs to be a balance in self-sufficiency to not jeopardise the flexibility and mobility of units, relating back to the question of lean production (Kress 2016:65). These principles will guide the subsequent analysis of the defence planning process in Sweden based on observations from thematic analysis of policy documents and interviews. To further illustrate the operationalisation of the themes as well as attain transparency, Table 1 shows specific portrayals from the empirical material. However, these are not perceived as constant but rather dynamic in nature.

Table 1: Operationalisation

Objectives Key words

Privatisation and specialisation • Market reforms and logics • Outsourcing to private actors • Maximise opportunity

Cost-effectiveness and lean production • Cost-effective use of resources • Optimising input vs. output • Focus on main activity Increased flexibility and capacity • Short lead times

• Limit storage, stockpiles and transportation nodes

Supply chain security • Prevent and reduce risk of disturbances • Critical infrastructure protection Self-sufficiency and ‘insourcing’ • Inhouse resources and capabilities

• Independency in support and supply Operational endurance and effectiveness • Combined capabilities

• Mental agility

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5 Analysis

Before moving to the analysis, this chapter starts by referring back to the research question: How

do the objectives of neoliberal economic reforms and total defence structure relate in formulating defence strategies?

The following sections are concerned with analysing how the objectives are identified through expressions in reports and interviews. To stay coherent with the theoretical framework the section is divided in accordance with the objectives under the overarching themes of neoliberal economic ideas and total defence structure. The contribution of the thesis rests upon analysing how neoliberal economic objectives and total defence objectives impact defence planning. To address the results of the analysis the chapter also discusses how these objectives are compatible in a defence planning context.

Neoliberal economic objectives in the defence planning process

5.1.1 Privatisation and specialisation

The current state of the organisation of the SAF is a result of decades of downsizing and reduced number of troops and facilities. A theme identified in the material and that is reoccurring throughout the different sources is the idea of privatisation. The long-term planning from the SAF concludes that organisational decisions since the 1990s have had a negative impact on the starting conditions to build a defence based on a total defence structure. This is partly due to years of privatisation and reduced budgetary resources to the military (SAF 2018). In addition, this problem can be derived from the organisational decision to focus the SAF capabilities to engage in international operations whereas the total defence structure means a refocus towards enhancing the ability to ensure national security (SAF 2018). Furthermore, the final report by the Defence Commission (Ds 2019:140) concludes that critical infrastructure that was previously owned and operated by public actors are now administered by private companies either based in Sweden or abroad. The changed prerequisites have affected the production standards and conditions of the military and defence industry which has a great impact on logistics for the armed forces. These developments correlate with Bobbitt’s idea of the market-state, where the ultimate aim is to stimulate and maximise opportunity for the population. Privatisation is then a tool used to bring capital gains to the state while also increasing the number of market operators which is beneficial for the people (Bobbitt 2002:668). When addressing military logistics specifically, the Commission concludes that such activities “in the broadest sense have changed from being organised to support a quantitatively large military defence – with demands of ability and endurance – to supporting a small peacetime-organisation” (2019:141). Following peace-rational premises, the Swedish defence

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organisation has been characterised by centralisation of storage units and supply, which is now a challenge for reinstating a total defence structure where distribution over the whole Swedish territory is an important component. The question of privatisation in relation to supply chains boils down to the issue of ownership of resources. Outsourcing of military logistics in general, and especially transports, is not a problem for defence planning per se but it requires several considerations when planning for stable supply chains.

The privatisation of vital societal functions and critical infrastructure is here to stay, there is no question about it. What needs to be done now is finding ways to minimise vulnerabilities in this system and to a large extent this is a matter of contracts and agreements between actors (Interview Allard 2020).

What privatisation has led to in this sense is an increased number of actors and interests to consider in such an equation. The larger number of actors brings about significant emphasis on communication and collaboration between different organisational levels. The function of military logistics in a total defence structure is very much dependent on linkages among societal actors across organisational boundaries to various degrees (SAF 2018). This is an issue addressed at a strategic level in the long-term defence planning by the SAF, however there is a need to put these strategic aims into effect on operational and tactical levels as well. Even though this is discussed by military personnel working with logistics and transports on a daily basis within the SAF it is unclear how their activities in a critical situation would be affected by the higher degree of privatisation. One concern is that communication and collaboration happen on a strategic level and fails to reach down to the actual working field (Interview Anonymous 1 2020). Consequentially, there is a risk that capabilities of the system are overestimated which could have a negative impact on the operational capacity of the total defence. As a way to overcome this, the transport sector is working to develop networks where public, military and private actors are represented and collaborate in planning for support activities and distribution of supply in reinforced alert. Through a network called TP-SAMS, representatives from all actors’ organisations are included and work together to make contingency plans for the sector (Interview Dreifaldt 2020). However, there is a need to develop such collaborations further because for now private actors are only represented by interbranch organisations which can prove to be problematic since the actual resources are located within private companies and not in these organisations. While this is an effort to include all sectors, it might not reach its full potential given the current system of inclusion of private actors which affects the possibility to plan for stable supply chains. This is problematic because it risks conflicting with the objective of a robust defence and the operational endurance.

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Additionally, due to specialisation the SAF have concentrated on developing its warfighting capabilities focused on international missions and outsourced other activities. This indicates how the objective of privatisation and specialisation has influenced defence planning where the adoption of market reforms has affected the structure of the SAF since the 1990s. Moreover, this exemplifies a process to focus on core competency in line with Taylor’s (2004) argument of objectives to outsource logistic support capabilities. Numerous references of the increased dependency on the business sector to plan for supply chain security in times of crises and war illustrates the theoretical argument of how privatisation shapes defence policy. Hence, the objective is significant for the Swedish defence planning concerning logistics.

5.1.2 Cost-effectiveness and lean production

The aforementioned issue of organisational downsizing of the SAF also correspond with the objective of lean production and cost-effectiveness. Both reports from the Swedish Government and the armed forces express that additional defence spending in the past ten years has led to improvements for the military but more investments are needed in order to reach a sufficient level of preparedness. The current organisation of the total defence system is dimensioned and designed in accordance with a peace-rationality and is therefore unlikely to sufficiently work in an operational environment. The balance between cost-effectiveness and the demands of support in critical operations is a concern for the tactical level of military logistics where exercises are used as a way to prepare (Interview Anonymous 1 2020). The SAF concludes that “limits due to small dimensions of the organisational structure are likely to affect capabilities such as logistics for an extended period” (SAF 2018:16) and the defence policies need to address this issue. This could undermine operational endurance which indicates a conflict with that objective. The transport sector has specifically experienced a development towards “lean production just in time” (Ds 2019:28) as an indicator of the influence of neoliberal economic ideas. The basis of this line of thought is to reduce stockpiling and the costs associated with storage and instead focus on accomplishing exact and well-timed deliveries (Skoglund, 2012:196). However, this logic results in an increased vulnerability for disturbances or interruptions in the flow of supply if they were to occur. The implementation of cost-effective solutions in the transport sector complicates the objective of self-sufficiency since the increased outsourcing led to reduced in-house capabilities. When favouring the objective of cost-effective transport solutions, the majority of private actors overlook the importance of managing risks in business continuity planning and how their line of supply of goods and services can be affected by crises or war. Given the dependency on private actors in a total defence structure this can have far reaching consequences for the entire defence system. Cost-effectiveness and lean

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production are implemented in different ways in the various sectors which hinders planning for operational endurance within the system. The report concerning the role of private actors in a total defence system concludes that there is an urgent need for clarifications concerning what risk management actually entails for companies (SOU 2019:86). The lack of clarifications can lead to increased costs and lower efficiency for Swedish defence in general and for private companies as well. Furthermore, since private companies are concerned with cost-reductions, effective use of resources, making profits and competitive advantages, their activities and reasoning differs from government institutions and the military. These differences related to such incentives need to be addressed properly in the defence planning process moving forward in order to bridge the current gap between various actors’ activities (Interview Allard 2020). Moreover, the report by the Defence Commission states that “cost-effectiveness in a peace-time perspective has prevailed needs for preparedness” (2019:273) by both the business sector and the defence industry which leads to volatile supply chains where production time and volume are difficult to predict. Thus, it is perceived as a conflict with the objective of operational endurance. To create predictability within the system the contracts with private actors need to be valid also in reinforced alert. Working with such contracts is a driver for further collaboration between different actors and sectors. The Swedish Agency for Public Management elaborates on the economic complexity facing the SAF regarding how to meet such agreements with the current purchasing power being low while the aims for the organisation is to increase its capacity (Statskontoret 2018:12-13). Even though defence spending has increased since the total defence system was reintroduced in 2015, these issues remain for the coming decade as well. As explained by the following statement “The problem is that it takes a very long time to readjust a complex system like this”, to change the organisational structure and go back to a strategy based on stockpiling distributed over a lager territory (Interview Allard 2020). The Transport Administration actively works with the challenge to ensure that critical infrastructure works if an incident or an attack occurs across the entire Swedish territory. The organisation has both regional and local presence, in contrast to many other government agencies, which enables them to somewhat overcome the issue of centralised governance (Interview Dreifaldt 2020). The affirmation of the objective of cost-effectiveness and lean production in the Swedish defence organisation since the 1990s can explain why logistics functions are now under dimensioned and lack the redundancy to face an armed attack (SAF 2018).

5.1.3 Increased capacity and flexibility

The objective of increased capacity and flexibility is central to neoliberal economic reforms and is thus an embedded element in the other objectives discussed above. However, while there are

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several similarities the objective has specific components that allows for this separation. Outsourcing of logistics functions enables flexibility for the military in the sense that it is one less function to mobilise in times of an operation. This gives the SAF an opportunity to have the uniformed military focus more on developing warfighting capabilities and less on support activities (Dunigan 2016:245). This objective can be interpreted as an underlying element for the organisational approach of the SAF since the 1990s in which downsizing was a determining factor. Until the reinstatement of the total defence structure in 2015, most security policy decisions involved substantial reductions of the armed forces in all military branches (Ds 2019). Arguably, such decisions were based on a peace-time logic formed by production rationales or political reasoning rather than operational optimisation. This is manifested in the transport functions through a precedence of administrative reasons to the detriment of military-strategic matters (SAF 2018). An example of this is the positioning of storage facilities for supplies to the SAF and other total defence actors, where a consequence of such peace-time logics is that there is one central storage facility. This system is not dimensioned for the total defence structure and “the total defence concept is meant to prepare the nation for war, then a central storage unit on one location in Sweden is not a sufficient solution to achieve it” (Interview Allard 2020). However, as the storage facility was designed and built for a different strategic posture based on the threat level at that time, this needs to be analysed with attention to this change. That said, it illustrates the issues facing the SAF and the Swedish governmental institutions in reinstating the total defence structure. The transport sector becomes even more important in this development since it encompasses all the activities necessary to move goods and people from one geographical position to another, as well as infrastructure and distribution networks. There has been an internationalisation of the owners and operators which also needs to be considered in a preparedness perspective (Interview Dreifaldt 2020). It is important to acknowledge the implications of internationalisation on the ability to plan for supply chain security since more complex systems of ownership can affect operational effectiveness. The capacity of transportation can increase as a consequence of the larger number of operators and by outsourcing some of the transport activities, the SAF can increase their warfighting capacity (SAF 2018). In regard to flexibility, the use of contractors can have organisational benefits since private actors are positioned outside governmental bureaucracy. Private companies can therefore deliver goods or services with shorter lead times. A crucial factor for increasing capacity is to define whose capacity is considered, what capacity that is and what aim that capacity is perceived to have. This is expressed as a continuing issue for implementing the total defence planning from a strategic to an operational level (Interview Anonymous 1 2020). In order to create incentives for investments in defence planning for all sectors the questions about capacity

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needs to be emphasised. Conceptual clarity regarding this could enable a connection between the objective of increased capacity and the aim of building a robust total defence. The SOU discusses the importance of maintaining flexibility when making long-term plans for the organisation of the reinstated total defence and balance this objective with long term predictability within the system (SOU 2019:174). In order to achieve an efficient defence strategy, it needs to adapt to the current threat scenarios and the total defence should have the ability to address different threats and circumstances. Thus, flexibility must be considered in the agenda for the Swedish defence organisation moving forward.

Objectives of a total defence structure

5.2.1 Supply chain security

A main reason for reinstating a total defence structure for the planning of Swedish national security has to do with the aim to ensure stable supply chains of vital goods and services. Given that the goal of the SAF as stated both in the long-term planning and in the policy reports by the Defence Commission is to enhance the ability from the current level and to build a robust Swedish defence, supply chain security is a major aspect to consider. The SAF expresses that “the biggest challenges are connected to long lead times, mostly concerning procurement of complex systems, personnel and new infrastructure” (SAF 2018:7). Furthermore, there is a need to concentrate on planning for operations beyond the area around Stockholm and include important transportation nodes on the west coast for securing stable shipping chains as well as plan for train services towards both the west and south (SAF 2018:30). The idea of a total defence structure is that all actors within the system can support each other to ensure the upholding of vital societal functions in times of crises and war. In order to achieve supply chain security there is a need for collaboration among the actors in peacetime to exercise and plan for incidents. In the transport sector, the Transport Administration is assigned with a special mission to coordinate activities related to total defence planning within transportation and infrastructure. Through the aforementioned network TP-SAMS, the agency communicates and work together with other actors to establish common ground concerning responsibilities and activities during reinforced alert (Interview Dreifaldt 2020). The transport sector plays a special role in supply chain security due to the fact that the other sectors are dependent on transportations for their activities. Moreover, to plan for their role in the total defence structure, they use scenarios as an exercise of how the sector would be affected by crises or war. For example:

Maximising defence capacities by allocating societal resources : Balancing the objectives in planning for a total defence structure