CHANGING NEEDS AND FUTURE TRENDS
Maurice J. Williams
National Seminar
Future Directions for the Peace Corps Colorado State University, July 8-12, 1986
I am pleased to take part in this National Seminar on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Peace Corps. The
inauguration of the Peace Corps was part of a world-wide movement to accelerate economic development in the less developed regions of Asia, Africa and Latin America. The objective was embodied in the United Nations First Development Decade to extend to the peoples of the Third World the material benefits of the technological
revolution which had earlier taken place in the northern industrial countries.
The world has changed greatly in the last 25 years. Most of the economic growth targets of the United Nations for developing regions have been surpassed--a remarkable achievement. Yet the benefits of acccelerated development have been very unevenly
distributed, and millions of people remain in situations of poverty and undernutrition.
I am reminded of a conversation some years ago with a farmer in Kashmir. Speaking on behalf of his village, he observed that their land was fertile, they had good water and their women were beautiful--but still they were poor. Clearly the benefits of development had not reached that Indian village, although the
farmers could count their blessings for Kashmir is reknowned for its fair women.
While there have been many changes in our views of
development, the Peace Corps remains as relevant today as it was 25 years ago. In part, this is because the Peace Corps concept of extending technical assistance on a people-to-people basis was well in advance of the main stream of development in the 1960s. In this regard it may be useful to consider a bit of historical
background. Throughout the 1960s major development agencies such as the World Bank and AID did not give much explicit attention to poor people, but rather they focused on broad economic growth as a means to eliminate poverty. The approach was to invest in projects aimed at making the economy grow faster. It was widely assumed that the benefits of such economic growth would trickle down to those with lower incomes.
Unfortunately, what we have learned since is that the "trickle down" didn't occur, or that it occurred very slowly. As a
consequence, there was emphasis on reorienting these same
development projects to take account of the needs of the poor. Growth with equity was the byword. However, it turned out · that most of the large and highly centralized development agencies were not well equipped to reach the poorest of the poor. Despite high rates of economic growth for development countries, in aggregate, some« 0 percent of their people were being by-passed by
By the end of the 70s, it was clear that the culturally sensitive and more direct people-to-people approaches of
organizations such as the Peace Corps, and of many field-oriented non-governmental agencies, were highly effective in helping
increase the productivity of the poorest people.
Thus, we can pay tribute to the far-sighted vision which led to the establishment of the Peace Corps, and to its record of achievement.
The Deep Transitional Crisis of the Eighties
It is well to consider the world economic environment which will affect the future operation of the Peace Corps. The decade of the 1980s has witnessed severe economic problems and a near stand-still in development for most Third World countries. Some view it as a "lost development decade", in that per capita incomes in many developing countries do not appear likely to improve. This slow down in development began in 1982 - 83 with the most severe global depression since the 1930s. Lingering effects of this recent
depression are projected to the end of the decade in terms of lower levels of world trade and of commodity prices. Despite partial
1 economic recovery in some industrial countries, the international
trade outlook appears likely to remain difficult as developed countries continue to impose import restrictions and export
subsidies in efforts to resolve their own large trade and financial imbalances.
The effects have been most severe in Sub-Sahara Africa which has experienced dramatic and continued economic deterioration. Drought and civil strife have also contributed to Africa's tragic food and nutritional problems.
Partly as a result of these economic difficulties, many developing countries are encountering severe debt problems which also have a dampening effect on international trade and development
prospects. The debt crisis is a major barrier to development and a threat to political stability in both Africa and Latin America.
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particularly in terms of their large, unresolved backlog of Slow economic growth also has affected many Asian countries, underemproyment, poverty and undernutrition problems.These economic issues understandably have stimulated renewed interest in reviving economic growth. The currect emphasis of development policy is on adjustment to harsh external realities by domestic policy reforms and resource efficiency in the developing countries. Adjustment and policy-conditioned aid appear to have again replaced concerns about more direct means for poverty
alleviation.
~ In this brief overview of development problems, it is clear
~~ that
we are living in an historically transitional period withmajor changes underway in policy orientations, attitudes, production structures and institutional adaptations. A
transtitional period by its very nature tends to be a time of trouble, confusion and great uncertainties about future
directions. Such periods involve greater risks as well as new
opportunities. For it is in time of crisis that we are most likely to adopt innovative reforms.
Of course it is not possible to forsee the future with any precision, but we can discern broad trends which almost certainly will impact on social and economic development and which should be taken into account in future directions for the Peace Corps.
World Development Prospects and Trends
What then are some of the most significant development
trends? Perhaps the main motive force is the continued emergence of more advanced technologies and their impact on production
structures and employment. But there are many other elements at play in the world today, not the least of which is the explosion of population growth in the developing regions. This population
growth has consequences affecting capital needs for investment in infrastructure, as well as affecting employment, food production, environmental considerations, migration pressures and effects in many other directions. The future also is being shaped by strong drives to reaffirm national and cultural identities under the stress of economic competition and modernization. Culture has often been a neglected factor in development. This has not been true of the Peace Corps which has well understood the importance of cultural factors.
At the same time there is a trend toward growing diversity of experience and outlook among nations and local communities, with a seeking for more autonomous and less interdependent modes of
- evelopment. This conflicts with views of an emerging world economy and a globally more interdependent system of values. Moreover, we can observe that global theories of development and global institutions are increasingly under attack as less than fully relevent to emerging developing needs.
In this process of transitional change there appears to be a more humanistic approach to development in terms of peoples
movements which underscore the importance of greater self-reliance and participation. I believe the future will see even stronger humanistic impulses which will combine selectively with the more powerful new technologies in a renewed emphasis on the progressive elimination of severe poverty and chronic hunger. This, after all, is the true objective of development.
That essentially summarizes my view of world development trends. Let us now consider these trends in somewhat more detail and their implications for the future evolution of development, and for your work in the Peace Corps.
Dissemination of Advanced Technologies
Systematic international development assistance began for the United States with President Truman's Point Four Program for
dissemination of technical knowledge. Technical assistance will continue to be of major importance for improving the productive capacities of low income developing countries.
We have seen that high yielding varieties of seeds and
improved cultivation practices in the use of water and chemicals, when combined with appropriate policies and institutional
adaptations, have transformed the food prospects of India and China and of other Asian countries. The application of similar
techniques of research and extension of knowledge adapted to the circumstances of other developing countries can transform their food and development prospects as well.
We have learned about what it takes to increase agricultural production, in terms of policy and technical adaptations, along with functional training of rural families and the cooperative evolution of institutions for the processing and marketing of agricultural products. For largely agrarian countries, the
development of their food and agricultural sectors has provided a sound basis for industrial development. A number of developing countries have learned this lesson of development the hard way.
The recent United Nations Special Session of the Critical Economic Situation in Africa resulted in a commitment by African governments and their development partners for a five year program of economic recovery. It will be based on a new pattern of
development in favor of food and agriculture. African farmers are the backbone of the new priority for development in Africa.
Included in the Program for Economic Recovery are a number of
specific action proposals of relevance to the Peace Corps, such as immediate measures to combat food emergencies and the establishment of local food security arrangements. Various proposals are made for increasing food production through improved crop and animal husbandry practices, use of modern imputs and improved marketing. Emphasis is placed on the need to assist small farmers, especially women producers and youth.
The advance of powerful new technologies continues at a rapid pace. Current and projected technological innovations are being led by developments in biology, genetic engineering,
micro-electronics, computer sciences, communications, automated production processes, and more integrative inter-sectoral
management. These will extend human command of high productivity, with a further restructuring in the distribution of industry and agriculture.
Population Prospects and the Provision of Employment and Economic Needs
Another significant trend which affects the propect and need for development is continuing population growth in the developing regions. In three decades or so, an additional 3 billion people, mostly located in the developing regions, will have to be
accommodated in terms of increased food production, capital for infrastructure investment and for employment. The current world population only this week reached the five billion mark.
The demographic prospects vary greatly by region. The population of the advanced industrial countries is growing very slowly and is likely to comprise less than 20 percent of the
world's population in the next century. Already we are witnessing the international effects of population pressures, as immigration from the Caribbean and from Mexico are changing ethnic patterns in areas of the United States. Sustained migration pressures also will continued to be very great in Asian and African countries as well.
While there is no definative agreement on the relation of
population to development, it is clear that overly rapid population growth in low-income regions has serious contraints on
development. Asian leaders, for example, have recognized that the future development prospects of their countries depend greatly on the success of population policies. On the whole, good progress is being made in Asia to bring down population growth rates, but many
local difficulties lay ahead.
The most sensitive region with regard to population is Africa where fertility rates remain high. This is among the principal factors which have seriously aggravated Africa's development problems.
Reaffirmation of Cultural Identities
It has been commonplace in the past to assume that a more interdependent world economy, with growing trade and financial linkages, as well as the means for rapid transportation and communications to all continents, would lead to a common world outlook. To some extent this has been true, but an apparently stronger trend in the current period is the strengthening of national and cultural identities. This has both positive and negative aspects.
Cultural and racial conflicts are flaring up in different parts of the world, taking on various forms and frequently leading to tension and violent conflicts which eclipse development
concerns. In some countries such as Sri Lanka these tensions have been a serious destabilizing influence.
Yet it must also be observed that there are positive aspects to a reaffirmation of cultural values and aspirations and the confidence which they tend to engender. Cultural pride and identification with economic progress are probably essential
aspects of sustained development. If this is true and we believe it is, then institutional development should seek to encourage both unity of community interests with tolerance f or cultural diversity along with greater freedom for both individual and group
expression. These tendencies hold promise for more democratic forms of governance.
Development agencies must take more account of these powerful cultural trends, a factor which the Peace Corps from its earliest orientation has been well aware of. The objective should be to assure diversity of cultural perspective linked to the unity of common development action.
More Autonomous National Policies and Development
A fourth general trend in this transitional decade favors more autonomous national development--and for smaller countries more attention to regional development--with less dependence on
international trade as a primary engine of growth. In the period ahead not only are the economies of the advanced industrial
countries growing more slowly than in the past, but their
dependence on raw material and commodity imports from developing countries has been declining. This is due in part to steadily changing technologies which demand less intensive use of raw
materials and of energy for manufacturing, while other technologies have greatly enhanced the productivity of commodity supply.
terms Add There has been a long term trend adversely affecting the of trade of primary products--food as well as raw materials. to this continuing decline, the recent trend of greater
discrimination and protective trade measures by developed against the manufactures of developing countries, and the becomes clear for more autonomous development of markets, within and among developing countries.
countries need
both
There are those who project a reversal of these current trends in international trade which will be realized by negotiations for trade liberalization. This is a major objective of American
international trade policy. However, at best, the process of negotiation and the related restructuring of industrial product markets will necessarily be slow and will occupy economic policy
makers for the rest of this century.
This change in perspective generally has been good for agriculture in the developing regions. Since many of these countries are still largely agrarian, the development of their
agricultural potentials is even more important now than it has been in the past. In particular, enhanced food production and its wider distribution among small producers and low income consumers will
provide widely beneficial stimulus for internal market development and investment. For these reasons policy makers in developing countries are reducing past discriminations against agriculture. Prices of agricultural products are being permitted to rise
domestically and development resources to flow back to agriculture.
A Weakening of International Organizations and Approaches to Development
We also should note that more assertive national economic policies and more autonomous development, tailored to national and regional circumstances, has led to a weakening of universal
approaches and policies concerning global development, and of the international organizations which espoused them. This particularly has been true of the United Nations agencies which have placed
primary emphasis on reform of the international economic order as a principle means of enhancing opportunities for developing
countries. In retrospect, we can observe that expectations for a new international economic order by means of North-South
negotiations appear to have understated the importance of national policy reforms for the achievement of development objectives.
Perhaps in the current period the pendulum has swung too far in expecting so much so quickly of developing countries in terms of national policy and structural adjustments. In a real sense, the more critical national adjustment prolems, in terms of a more healthy world economic environment, lie with the advanced
industrial countries. However, they find it increasingly difficult to coordinate their national trade and financial policies under the
impact of currently rapid technological changes and structural distortions which have threatened to unbalance their relative competitive positions in the world economy.
What is required are new institutional arrangements to deal with the more nationalistic and conflict-prone international
economic environment. While the need for revitalized international institutions or possibly a new generation of such institutions, is clear--their evolution appears likely to be a very slow process in
the current international economic and political climate.
However, it is not only the international organizations which have been overly bureaucratic and less than effective in dealing with economic and development problems. More incisive and better informed institutions for collective action at the national level are also required. The trend for reform of both national and
international institutions is likely to be a salient feature of the years ahead.
The Humanistic Trend of Local Initiatives and Peoples Movements A further significant trend concerns the flowering of populist movements in many parts of the world which seek to escape
hierarchial and heavy bureaucratic structures. There is a varied experimentation of social action groups, or voluntary
organizations, of grass root movements and of private and local initiatives. Despite the diversity of styles and objectives this populist, or humanistic, trend underscores both self-reliance and popular participation in development. It is a force in political and economic development which should not be underestimated.
We have seen a series of military dictator regimes fall as a result of resurgency of populist movements. The Philippines is an outstanding example.
Further, it appears that people in many parts of the world are less inclined to wait on government initiatives, but rather to
expect their governments to set a framework for individual and group initiatives and action. For example, survival for large numbers of people in most of the recently drought-stricken
countries of Africa was a result less of government action than of what individuals and groups were able to do for themselves. Relief and recovery assistance which encourages such self-reliant
initiatives will continue to be the more effective form of assistance.
In part, of course, the humanistic trend is the expression of what development practitioners have had to learn and relearn,
namely, that inve m in human ca · is 'm ortant of all investment for sustained development progress. This has
i ncluded improved nutrition, safe water, sanitation, fucntional literacy and education. These have been and will continue to be the truly important contributions which development assistance can make.
I believe that the recent surge of local initiatives and populist movements is the result of just such investments in developing countries, and that with the work of the Peace Corps continuing along these proven lines, the populist and humanistic trend in development will be further enhanced.
In conclusion, I forsee that these trends will combine in the years ahead to forge a truly poverty-oriented approach to
evelopment. There is growing support for more socially equitable modes of development which will better respond to the needs of developing country peoples. Strengthened populist movements will demand that the highly productive new technologies, in both
agriculture and industry, be directed more explicitly lo the
progressive elimination of hunger, which is the worst manifestation of poverty.
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The future direction for the Peace Corps is clear. It is to continue to work on a people-to-people level and to supportpopulist and democratic trends which release peoples' energies and which place in their hands the more effective technological tools for the elimination of degrading poverty.
