PEAK CAR in SWEDEN ?Othercountries?

Peo Nordlöf Economics and Models, unit manager Market and Planning

PEAK CAR in SWEDEN ?

Other

countries ?

PEAK CAR in SWEDEN ?

• Ongoing discussion in Sweden – started after declining growth of car traffic after a financial crisis 2008. Less growth in traffic per car, is it a peak and will car traffic start falling down?

• Transport administratin responsible of the traffic forecast have started to do lot of sensitivity analyzes.

• We have also financed R&D in the area.

• Working papers in Transport EconomicsNo 2014:15:

“It's the economy, stupid: increasing fuel price is enough to explain Peak Car in Sweden”; Anne Bastian and Maria

Börjesson CTS/KTH

• http://swopec.hhs.se/ctswps/abs/ctswps2014_015.htm

3 2014-11-06

Trafikarbetet i Sverige för personbilar i miljoner mil, 1990-2010

5 000 5 200 5 400 5 600 5 800 6 000 6 200 6 400 6 600

År 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Persontransportarbete i Sverige 1950 – 2011, miljarder personkilometer

(www.trafa.se)

0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

Miljoner fordoskilometer

År

Trafikarbete miljoner fordonskilometer KÄNSLIGHETSANALYSER

Statistik TRAFA Prognos 2014-04-01 Noll +50% -20% -12%

7 2014-11-06

Peak Car in Sweden – findings!

• Economic variables such as GDP and fuel price as well as socio- demographic characteristics and spatial distribution are key factors explaining car use trends.

• Due to the recently observed plateau of total car travel in many high income countries, it has been argued that other factors, such as

changes in preferences, attitudes and life-styles, have become more important drivers of car use.

• However, in this paper we show that economic

variables alone can explain the observed car use trends in Sweden 2002-2012.

• Urban populations - low incomes, respond stronger to fuel price

increases and economic downturn, - high income urban populations, signs of saturation in car ownership and distances driven.

• Underscores the importance of accounting for differences in

accessibility with other travel modes and income distribution when explaining the Peak Car phenomenon.

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Are the results from Sweden transferable?

• Likely transferable to some European countries with similar

conditions in fuel prices, incomes, urbanization levels and public transit supply.

• However, in countries with very different conditions forecasting models likely need different specifications and parameter values.

For example in the United States the number of cars exceeds the number of license holders (United States Department of Energy, 2013).

• Dargay et al. (2007) also emphasize the need to adjust transport models to local conditions, by showing that saturation levels for car ownership are significantly lower with high urbanization and

population density.

11 2014-11-06

…Thank you!

Link to trv.se of efficiency analysis and traffic forecasts in the transport sector:

http://www.trafikverket.se/samhallsekonomiochprognoser