A Combat Survivability Model for
Evaluating Air Mission Routes in
Future Decision Support Systems
TINA ERLANDSSON
Information Technology
Örebro Studies in Technology 59 I
ÖREBRO 2014ÖREBRO STUDIES IN TECHNOLOGY 59 2014
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tina erlandson works at the Department of Sensor Fusion and Tactical Support at Saab Aeronautics, Linkö-ping, Sweden. She is also a member of the Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL) at the University of Skövde, Sweden. Her main research interests include information fusion and probabilistic modeling, such as Markov models, applied within the air combat domain.
Fighter pilots flying inside hostile environments are exposed to the enemy’s air defense systems. In this doctoral thesis, a combat survi-vability model is proposed that describes the probability of flying a mission route unharmed with respect to the enemy’s ground based air defense systems. The model is able to capture dependencies over time, for example, that the enemy must track the aircraft before firing a weapon. It also models that the enemy’s sensor and weapon systems communicate and share information with each other. The model should be used for route evaluation as a component in a decision support system for aiding fighter pilots to plan and execute their missions. It is shown how the model can be used to analyze and compare routes as well as being part of a route planner. The model’s sensitivity to input uncertainty regarding the locations and types of enemy systems is also analyzed. The thesis concludes that the proposed survivability model enables domain experts to incorporate knowledge regarding different kinds of enemy air defense systems, that the model can be used for evaluating routes regarding multiple objectives and that the model can capture uncertainty regarding the enemy’s positions and capabilities. The proposed model shows promise to be a vital component in future decision support systems.
issn 1650-8580 isbn 978-91-7529-003-4
