A Combat Survivability Model for Evaluating Air Mission Routes in Future Decision Support Systems
av Tina Erlandsson
Akademisk avhandling
Avhandling för teknologie doktorsexamen i informationsteknologi,
som kommer att försvaras offentligt fredagen den 28 mars 2014 kl.13.15,
G111, Högskolan i Skövde Opponent: Docent Petter Ögren Centre for Autonomous Systems Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, Stockholm
Örebro universitet
Institutionen för naturvetenskap och teknik 701 82 ÖREBRO
Abstract
Tina Erlandsson (2014): A Combat Survivability Model for Evaluating Air Mission Routes in Future Decision Support Systems. Örebro Studies in Technology 59.
A fighter pilot flying in hostile environments needs to handle multiple dependent objectives, such as accomplishing the mission task, maintaining flight safety and avoiding enemy fire. A decision support system that can aid the pilot in assessing the survivability of different mission routes would be a useful tool for both the planning and the execution of the mission. A vital component in such a system is a model that describes how the enemy’s air defense systems affect the survivability of a route. The thesis proposes and analyzes a survivability model, which estimates the probability that the aircraft can fly a route unharmed. The model is able to capture dependencies over time, for example, that the enemy must track the aircraft before firing a weapon. Three different versions of the model are presented, each describing the enemy’s systems in different ways.
The thesis investigates how the survivability model can be used to analyze, compare and optimize mission routes. A compact measure is proposed for automatic route evaluation; the expected cost. It is shown that the expected cost can incorporate multiple dependent objectives, such as survivability, route length, and that the aircraft must be unharmed when performing the mission task. A route planner, which optimizes the route between two points with respect to these objectives, is also demonstrated. The model’s sensitivity to input uncertainty is analyzed and it is suggested that this uncertainty should be incorporated in the evaluation of the routes.
The thesis concludes that the proposed survivability model enables domain experts to incorporate knowledge regarding different kinds of enemy systems, that the model can be used to evaluate routes regarding multiple objectives, and that the model can capture uncertainty with regard to the enemy’s positions and capabilities. The proposed model therefore shows promise in becoming a vital component in future decision support systems. Future challenges to achieve this are also outlined.
Keywords: fighter aircraft, situation analysis, combat survival, decision
support, uncertainty, air defense systems, Markov models. Tina Erlandsson, Institutionen för naturvetenskap och teknik
Örebro University, SE-701 82 Örebro, Sweden, tina.erlandsson@saabgroup.com i
