JACOB WALLENBERG
Work in The Future, October 4, 2018
The Jacob and Marcus Wallenberg Centre for Innovative and Sustainable Business Development
1
TECHNOLOGY CONSTANTLY IMPACTS BUSINESS AND EMPLOYMENT MIX
70
30 40
0 10 80
20 50 60 100 90
50
Trade (retail and wholesale)
2000
Agriculture
15
Construction Transportation
Government
Business and repair services Manufacturing
Household work
Entertainment Utilities
Health care Mining
Professional services
1850
Telecommunications
1900
Education
Financial services
Large-scale sector employment declines have been countered by growth of other sectors that have absorbed workers Share of total employment by sector in the United States, 1850–2015
ACCORDING TO A MCKINSEY STUDY: LESS THAN 10% OF JOBS CAN BE FULLY AUTOMATED, BUT NEARLY ALL JOBS WILL BE IMPACTED
~50 %
of current work activities could be automated
of jobs involve tasks that are
>90% automatable
10 %
But less than
All sectors, United States and Western Europe
THE SKILLS NEEDED WILL SHIFT, TOWARDS MORE TECHNOLOGICAL AND SOCIOEMOTIONAL SKILLS
-14 -15
8
24
55 Change in number of hours
2016-30, %
Lower Higher
Importance
Total hours 650
203 115 140 119 73
Hours, 2016 billion
Technological skills Higher cognitive skills
Social and emotional skills Physical and manual skills Basic cognitive skills
AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO POSITIVELY AFFECT PRODUCTIVITY
GDP growth impact, percent per annum
+1.3%
Early robotics +0.4%
Early web technologies Automation and AI +0.6%
Scope Worldwide 27 EU countries Sweden
Period 1993-2007 2004-2008 2016-2030
Contribution to GDP growth
~16% ~40% ~60-70%
Forecast
A SIGNIFICANT RESKILLING EFFORT WILL BE REQUIRED - APPROXIMATELY 475,000 INDIVIDUALS PER YEAR
~9%
of the Swedish labor force need to be reskilled each year (475,000 FTE’s) The new human capital cycle will be 10 years (vs 25 years today)Estimated required reskilling and upskilling per year, % of entire labour force per year
~7%
new skills required as a result of the automation and AItransformation
~4%
new digital foundation skills to meet growing demand for digital skills~2% overlap as digital skills training will also help improve non-digital skills
~5% ~2% ~2%
JACOB WALLENBERG
Work in The Future, October 4, 2018
7
