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Impact assessments of cycle schemes

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

Anne Kjerkreit, Norwegian Public Roads Administration

anne.kjerkreit@vegvesen.no

(2)

Agenda

● Introduction

● Impact assessments in Norway

● CBA of cycle schemes

● Challenges and coming work

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Key figures

The Norwegian Public Roads Administration

Photo: Knut Opeide

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Organised by region

We are where the people are

● The Directorate of Public Roads

● Five Regions

● 72 Driver and Vehicle Licensing Offices

● 7,100 employees

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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21

5

55

9 10

1 On foot Bicycle Car driver Car

passenger

Public Transport

Other

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

How we travel in Norway

Modal split of all travels

Source: Norwegian Travel Survey 2013/14 -TØI report 1383/2014

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Challenges in urban areas

Rapid population growth

Photo: Eivind Kvambe

« The growth in passenger transport in the main urban areas must be

absorbed by public transport, cycling and walking .»

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Revision of handbook for impact assessments

Impact assessment of road transport projects

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

Main goal:

Improve the assessment methodology for cycling and public transport

Due to be finished in 2017

http://www.vegvesen.no/Fag/Publikasjoner/Handboker

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Procedure on Impact Assessment

Monetised impacts (calculated)

Non-monetised impacts (assessment)

Summary of the socioeconomic analysis

Spatial and social development, when required

Distribution

Attainment of objectives

Recommendation

Socio- Economic analysis

NPV+NMI >0

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Monetised impacts (1)

● Road- and transport users

– Vehicle costs (distance-related) – Time costs

– Direct costs (e.g tickets)

– Inconvenience costs in ferry connections – Benefits for «new» traffic

– Health effects for pedestrians and cyclists

– Unsafe conditions for pedestrians and cyclists

● Operators (public transport, ferry, toll road companies, P companies) – Costs

– Income – Transfers

All types of projects

«Special» projects

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Monetised impacts (2)

● Government budget

– Investment costs

– Management and maintenance

– Transfers (subsidies) between government and operators – Taxes

● Third parties

– Accidents

– Noise and air pollution

– Residual value (infrastructure)

– Tax costs (loss of efficiency by tax funding)

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Unit values for pedestrians/cyclists

● Time: 170 kr/h cycling and 152 kr/h walking (TØI 2010/1053b)

● Insecurity (TØI 2010/1053 g)

● Health:

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

Insecurity walking Insecurity cycling Crossings 1,2 kr/ crossing 2,8 kr/crossing Road side

walking/cycling 33,9 kr/km 15,2 kr/km

Costs Cycling (Kr/km) Walking

(kr/km) Reduced costs of

short

spells of illness

1,8 3,4

Reduced costs of serious

illness

24,6 49

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Benefactors Impacts Category

Transport users Benefit for transport users (travel time, travel cost, health for w/c, insecurity)

Monetized

Operators Operator benefit The government Budget effects

Third parties Traffic accidents

Noise and air pollution Residual value

Cost of government funds

Landscape Non-monetized

Community life and outdoor life

Natural environment Cultural heritage

Natural resources

Impacts for cyclists

and pedestrians

included here if not

included as monetized

impacts

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Project types and data flow

- Transport models

- Separate modules

- EFFEKT

(14)

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

1 Without data from transport model (all in EFFEKT)

2 With data from transport model

3 With data from transport model, transport user benefit module and public transport module

4 Pedestrian / Bicycle project Project types:

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Software for calculation CBA.

Transport model

Transport user benefit module

Public

Transportation module

EFFEKT

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CBA for cycle schemes: Two methods

1. Cycle module in EFFEKT; fixed demand 2. Flexible demand: transport models,

transport user benefit module, EFFEKT

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Walking and cycling-module in EFFEKT - fixed demand!

Ny GS-veg Alternativ 0 Trafikkstrømmer

Speed:

• Walking: 5 km/h

• Cycling: 15 km/h

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Impacts included at link levels

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

Link type Time Accidents Health Insecurity Maintenance At the

link

Delay w/c + cars Road side

cycling/walking X x x X

Pavement X X X

Walking /cycling

path X X X

Crossings x x x x X

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Walking and cycling; flexible demand

Transport model:

● Calculation of mode choice; also changes from walking and cycling to public transport and car

● Calculates changes in destinations

Transport user benefit module and EFFEKT

● Calculates benefits related to time costs and changes in health costs

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Challenges

● Little knowledge on the ammount of walking and cycling and changes in this caused by changes in the road network

● The transport models:

– Too large zones for estimation of changes in walking and cycling? ....internal trips

– Don’t consider topography and climate – Network:

• cycling and walking follow the main road; no shortcuts

• Don’t consider the quality of the cycle/walking network when estimating demand.

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Challenges

● CBA:

– The most important impacts are monetized, but the quality of infrastructure should maybe be better included?

– Discussions about the size of the health impacts

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Work ahead/ongoing work

● Before - /after studies of cycle scheme – traffic

– changes in activity levels

● Reestimation of transport demand model. Goal: to be better also on cycling and walking.

● Include induced cycle traffic in the cycle module in EFFEKT – Elasticities and rules of thumb (coming literature survey)

Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Impact assessments of cycle schemes, 29. sept 2015 Stockholm

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Value of Asset

Magnitude of Impact

+

Significance of the Impact

Assessing non-montetised impacts

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Assessing non-monetised impacts

References

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