Stockholm Resilience Centre

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Master’s Thesis, 60 ECTS

Social-ecological Resilience for Sustainable Development Master’s programme 2018/20, 120 ECTS

Tourism and marine resource conservation tentacle in tentacle?

Zanzibari hotels as biosphere stewards in support of octopus closures

Michael Bohlin

Stockholm Resilience Centre

Sustainability Science for Biosphere Stewardship

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Abstract

Tourism fuels the Zanzibari economy but adds to the depletion of marine resources. However, the concept of corporate biosphere stewardship suggests that companies with consolidated power can influence sustainability pathways. Can tourist hotels practically support octopus closures, a novel conservation tool, as a way towards sustainable marine resource consumption?

I address this issue by making the first known attempt to estimate Zanzibari hotels’ seasonal and annual octopus demand, mapping their value chain structure and identifying the nature of their demand.

The study relies on semi-structured interviews of 31 respondents (hotel staff, hotel suppliers, market traders, food importers and key informants) and official data. I assess the demand of hotels to range between 16 to 27 percent of the mean 2008-2018 annual catch in Zanzibar.

Hence, this consumer power hotels may confer agency for them to contribute to resource conservation such as octopus closures. Hotels may support closures particularly if they match seasonality in octopus price and demand. However, hoteliers’ use of a wide sourcing network including imports may lead to diluted price signals hampering understanding and incentives to protect the local octopus supply. Additionally, hoteliers’ weight preferences largely correspond with the Zanzibari voluntary minimum weight limit, but do not align with the desired outcome of bigger octopus from closures. The typical practise of purchasing fresh octopus and limited freezer capacity of hotels may also limit their agency to support octopus closures.

This study makes a novel contribution of linking octopus conservation with tourism. It furthermore nuances the concept of corporate biosphere stewardship by assessing the practical potential of Zanzibari tourism, a less consolidated industry, to contribute to marine resource conservation.

Further research into local biosphere stewardship of value chains within low-income country contexts should investigate differences in use of consumer power by small as opposed to large- scale businesses. In addition, similar assessments could benefit from research into local spatial and relational value chains, and their influence on hoteliers’ capacity to perceive of supply status through price signals, not only for octopus but seafood in general.

Key words

Corporate biosphere stewardship, tourism, marine resource conservation, small-scale fisheries, Zanzibar, trade, value chain, octopus, signal dilution

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Dibaji

Utalii unakuza uchumi wa zanzibar lakini umekubwa na kupungua kwa rasilimali za bahari.

Ingawaje, dhana ya uhirika wa kibailogio stewardship umependekeza kua nguvu ya mashirikiano ya makampuni yanaweza kuchangia njia endelevu. Inawezekana kwa mahoteli ya kitalii yakatoa msaada wa vitendo wa kufungia pweza wasivuliwe kwa kipindi maalumu, kama zana ya uhifadhi wa mazingira ambayo ni njia ya kupelekea matumizi endelevu ya matumizi ya rasilimali ya bahari? Ninaangalia suala hili kwa kufanya majaribio ya kwanza kwa kukadiria mahitaji ya pweza kwa hoteli za Zanzibar kwa msimu na kwa kila mwaka, kuyaainisha maeneo ya mnyororo wa thamani na kutambua maumbile ya upungufu wake.

Utafiti huu ulikuwa ni wa muundo wa mahojiano ya wazi na watu 31 walihojiwa (wafanyakazi wa hoteli, wasambazaji wa mahoteli, wauzaji wa masokoni, wasafirihaji na watu wengine wanohusika) na taarifa za takwimu. Nilipima mahitaji ya mahoteli kwa asilimia kati ya 16 mpaka 27 ya jumla 2008-2018 upatikanaji wa kila mwaka kwa zanzibar. Hivyo basi nguvu ya maoteli wanaweza kua mashirika ya kuchangia uhifadhi wa rasilimali kama kufungia mwamba kwa uvuvi wa pweza. Mahoteli yanaweza kuwasaidia kufungwa kwa mwamba kwa uvuvi wa pweza hasahasa ikiwa watafanana kwa msimu na kwa upatikanaji. Ingawaje wenye mahoteli wanatafuta chanzo kikubwa ikiwemo kuagiza kutoka nje ambayo inaweza kushusha bei na ni ishara ya kuzuia kutoa motisha ya kulinda usambazaji wa ndani. Kwakuengezea wenye mahoteli uzito wanaoupendelea unawiana na ule wa kiwango cha chini cha Zanzibar, lakini hayaendani na matokeo ya matakwa yao ya pweza wakubwa wakati wa kufungia mwamba kwa uvuvi wa pweza. Mahoteli hayawezi kuwa kama mashirika ya kusaidia kufungs pweza kutokana na kutaka pweza ambao wametoka kuvuliwa na vilevile uwezo mdogo wa majokofu yao kuweza kuhifadhi pweza hao.

Utafiti huu utaleta mchango mpya baina ya uhifandhi wa pweza na utalii. Na vilevile itaelezea dhana ya mashirikiano ya kibiosphere stewardship kwa kuchunguza umuhimu halisi wa utalii wa Zanzibar, muunganiko mdogo wa wadau katika kuchangia uhifadhi wa rasilimali za bahari.

Tafiti zijazo zinazohusiana na biosphere stewardship ya mtiririko wa thamani kwa muktadha wa nchi zenye kipato kidogo zifanye uchunguzi juu ya tofauti ya nguvu ya watumiaji wadogo wadogo inavyoenda kinyume na biashara kubwa. Kwa kuengezea uchunguzi kama huo utanufaisha watu wa hali za chini na mahusiano ya mnyororo wa thamani na mchango wao kwa uwezo wa wenye mahoteli kutambua hali ya usambazaji kupitia bei zake si kwa pweza peke tu bali ni kwa vyakula vya baharini vyote.

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Maneno ya msingi

Mashirikiani ya kibiosphere stewardship, utalii, uhifadhi wa rasilimali zabahari, wavuvi wadogo wadogo, Zanzibar, biashara, mnyororo wa thamani, pweza na signal dilution

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Acknowledgements

To all interviewees, for sharing your time, knowledge, and passion. To Nuru Said, Institute of Fisheries Research, Zanzibar, for field insights, Kiswahili interpretation and guiding me into Zanzibari daily life. To Lorna Slade with colleagues at Mwambao Coastal Community Network, Zanzibar, for co-supervision throughout the year and sharing the local perspective as well as interviewee contacts. To Hamad Khatib, Department of Fisheries Development, Zanzibar, for showing me the big picture with fisheries statistics. To Helen Peeks, Director of Zanzibar Association of Tourism Investors, for useful advice on sources and contacts. To Rukia Kitula at Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam and Narriman Jiddawi, Institute of Fisheries Research, Zanzibar, for kind support with research and translator permit in Zanzibar. To Rose Mwaipopo, University of Dar es Salaam, for kind support with research permit in mainland Tanzania. To Haji Machado, BlueVentures, for an extensive account of the Songo Songo Island coral reef closure. To Andrew Wamukota, School of environmental and earth sciences, Pwani University, Mombasa, Kenya for advice and good times. To my supervisors Tim Daw and Elizabeth Drury O'Neill at Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University for continuous guidance, inspiration, and encouragement. To Emilie Lindkvist and Beatrice Crona, Stockholm Resilience Centre, and Lily Zhao, University of California, Santa Barbara, for valuable input in the early stages. To the OctoPINTS research project (https://octopints.wordpress.com/, Swedish Research Council, project number 2018-05862), for facilitating my work at Stockholm Resilience Centre and kindly inviting me to workshop and field visit sessions. To the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) as funding institution through a Minor Field Studies scholarship 2019. To student peers at Stockholm Resilience Centre for constructive feedback and support. To family and friends, for being who you are.

This thesis and truly memorable experience would not have been without you. Ahsante sana, tusen tack, thank you sincerely.

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List of Illustrations

List of Figures

Figure 1. Visitor arrivals to Zanzibar 1985-2019 ... 4 Figure 2. a) Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar, including Unguja and Pemba b) Unguja including the study sites Stone Town (Zanzibar City), Nungwi, Pwani Mchangani and Paje ... 8 Figure 3. Overview of data sources and calculations of sampled hotels’ seasonal octopus demand and monthly octopus buy prices. ... 13 Figure 4. Overview of data sources and calculations of aggregate annual demand by hotels in Unguja.

... 14 Figure 5. Annual octopus catch volumes, Zanzibar 2008-2018. ... 20 Figure 6. Value chain of Zanzibari internal and external octopus trade based on interviews, official statistics, and secondary data. ... 21 Figure 7. Monthly variations around the average number of visitors to Zanzibar between February 2017 to December 2019 ... 25 Figure 8. Months of high, medium, low and no octopus demand as perceived by hotels within the second interview phase (3.2.2). ... 25 Figure 9. Sum of octopus demand volumes stated by hotels within the second interview phase (3.2.2).

... 26 Figure 10. Monthly minimum and maximum octopus buy prices over a typical year as perceived by hoteliers in the first and second interview phase (3.2.2). ... 26 Figure 11. Annual demand per bed across hotel segments (n=19) ... 27 Figure 12. Individual hotels’ annual octopus demand against number of hotel beds. U41, marked by a light blue shadow, may be considered an outlier. (n=19) ... 42

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List of Illustrations, continued

List of Tables

Table 1. Number of hotel interviews made per site in relation to hotel frequency as per Zanzibar

Commission for Tourism ... 9

Table 2. Hotel sample representativeness vis-á-vis hotels registered at the Zanzibar Commission for Tourism (ZCT) 2018 ... 10

Table 3. Potential impact of main data uncertainties on calculations and estimated proportion of annual hotel demand in Unguja ... 15

Table 4. Potential impact of main data gap on calculations and estimated proportion of hotel demand in Unguja ... 17

Table 5. Construction of hotel segments. ... 18

Table 6. Beds per room. ... 19

Table 7. Hotels' perception of octopus origin. ... 22

Table 8. Hotels' stated use of octopus intermediaries. ... 23

Table 9. Volume ratio between months of high to low demand ... 24

Table 10. Annual octopus demand of the Zanzibari hotel industry ... 28

Table 11. Hoteliers' preferences in regard to minimum and maximum octopus weight ... 29

Table 12. Hoteliers’ practise of purchasing 1) fresh as opposed to 2) frozen octopus as well as 3) possession of freezer(s). ... 30

Table 13. Dissection of outlier U41’s high versus low demand ratio ... 42

Table 14. Calculation of annual octopus demand of hotels in Unguja ... 43

Table 15. Grade conversion for hotels (n=3) not listed by the Zanzibar Commission for Tourism (ZCT). ... 45

Table 16. Average number of beds per hotel per constructed segment ... 45

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List of Abbreviations

DFD – Zanzibar Department of Fisheries Development OCGS – Office of Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar NGO – Non-governmental organization

SSFs – Small-scale fisheries TSH – Tanzanian Shilling

ZCT – Zanzibar Commission for Tourism

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1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem statement

Might private companies contribute to conservation of a natural resource upon which they depend? Correspondingly, can tourism in Zanzibar contribute to conservation of a marine resource such as octopus through its role as consumer of the same resource?

The seafood industry provides an example, where ten of the largest companies globally have pledged to collectively work for improved marine sustainability (Österblom et al. 2017). A

“…disproportionate and unprecedented capacity to influence…” (Folke et al. 2020) lies inside such transnational companies’ consolidation of profits, market share, exports, production, trade volumes or resource access. Influence may, out of several pathways, be achieved within value chains where companies as important end-consumers have significant negotiating power.

Expanding from the established concept of corporate social responsibility, Folke et al. (2019) suggest corporates assume corporate biosphere stewardship. To understand the concept of stewardship, I use action with emphasis on activities and interventions, amongst several distinct meanings identified within sustainability literature by (Peçanha Enqvist et al. 2018).

Etzion (2020) however sees sustainability within transnational companies as “…no less important than [from] governments and individuals…” but exemplifies through the global meat value chain uneven efforts where stewardship ranges from being a matter of compliance to a pronounced competitive strategy. Schneider et al. (2020) in turn point to that sustainability many times is incompatible with capitalism and exploitive profit-driven businesses.

Individual Zanzibari hotels are of considerably smaller market size than leading transnational companies but economically dominant in Zanzibar as a collective (‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019). Thus, within this study, I use the concept of corporate biosphere stewardship as a lens to assess the nature of octopus demand by hotels and their consequent potential to practically contribute to marine resource conservation. Normative aspects of stewardship and incentives of hoteliers are out of scope.

Tourism at global scale contributed economically by about 10 percent to global GDP and employment each in 2019 (‘Economic Impact | World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC)’

n.d.) and has significant social, technical, political but also environmental impact. Here, tourism depends on national resources while contributing to their depletion. However, this is not

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acknowledged by the industry, while sustainability challenges such as climate change and ecosystem conservation are (Scott and Gössling 2015).

One resource heavily depended upon by Zanzibari tourism is seafood, sourced from small-scale artisanal fisheries (Thyresson et al. 2013). Such small-scale fisheries provide livelihoods and nutrition to millions of people globally (FAO 2018). They are especially important to coastal communities within developing countries but nevertheless under-valued and underreported (Mills et al. 2011).

Under pressure from over-exploitation, mismanagement, ecological degradation and climate change (Samoilys et al. 2015), the responsibility of small-scale fisheries in the Western Indian Ocean including Zanzibar have since the 2000s shifted to locally managed marine areas from centralised large-scale initiatives (Cinner et al. 2012, Rocliffe et al. 2014).

Temporary octopus closures represent an expanding conservation technique within Western Indian Ocean small-scale fisheries, replicated more than 200 times since 2004. The promising outlook owes largely to the fast-growing and highly reproductive nature of octopi. (de San and Yvergniaux n.d., Lindkvist et al. 2019)

For Zanzibari hotels, supporting these closures is a seemingly novel role. Adding to the challenges, Crona et al. (2016) describes a disconnect between consumers of internationally- traded seafood and the originating fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here price signals are

“diluted” as declines in supply from individual fisheries are hidden through substitution of different source areas producing the same product. Consumers consequently cannot perceive or respond to local over-exploitation.

Seeing tourism as an example of global trade and international consumers (Gössling 2003), Zanzibari hotels consequently could face diluted price signals depending on the structure of the octopus value chain they find themselves in. This study therefore seeks to map such trade flows.

The study also aims to quantify octopus flows to uncover potential to influence. Broadly, quantified trade flows could improve estimates of the relative impact of different types of end consumers, such as hotels, on coral reef fish stocks and ecosystems (Thyresson et al. 2013).

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Here, on the basis of value chain influence, quantified flows could indicate hotels’ potential for biosphere stewardship.

1.2 Research aim

This study seeks to assess the practical potential of the Zanzibari tourism industry to support conservation through octopus closures. It does so in four parts:

Firstly, as a proxy for value chain influence, it makes the first known attempt to quantify octopus demand by hotels relative to national Zanzibari catch levels. Secondly, it seeks to identify seasonal dynamics in price and demand to evaluate if Zanzibari tourism seasons may guide timing of closures. Thirdly, from a spatial perspective it aims to relate regional octopus supply with demand by hotels in Unguja to assess their risk of being subject to diluted price signals. Fourthly, it explores how the nature of hoteliers’ demand, in terms of weight and freshness preferences, align with typically desired outcomes of octopus closures.

1.3 Research questions

With the overall aim of assessing the practical potential of the Zanzibari tourism industry to support marine resource conservation through octopus closures, I ask the below research questions:

• What are the significance and seasonal dynamics of demand for octopus from hotels in Zanzibar’s southern island Unguja?

• What is the spatial structure of the value chain that seeks to meet tourism demand?

• What is the nature of demand for octopus from hotels in terms of freshness and weight preferences?

1.4 Thesis outline

Following a case description of Zanzibari tourism and small-scale fisheries in Chapter 2, data collection and assessment methodology of seasonal and annual demand is explained in Chapter 3. Subsequently, Chapter 4 presents results and gives a value chain perspective of Zanzibari octopus supply, the seasonality of its price and demand together with significance and nature of demand. Lastly, Chapter 5 provides a discussion of results and conclusion of their implications for hotels’ potential to support marine resource conservation.

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2 CASE DESCRIPTION 2.1 Tourism in Zanzibar

Tourism began in the 1980s as Zanzibar transformed into a liberal economy (Drury O’Neill et al. 2018). It has grown to be economically significant, although estimates of its contributions to GDP vary considerably between 25 percent in 2007 (Lange and Jiddawi 2009), 47 percent in 2014 (‘Nordic Development Fund - Coastal Profile for Zanzibar 2014 Portfolio of Actions’

2014) and 28 percent in 2018 (‘World Bank. 2019. Zanzibar: A Pathway to Tourism for All:

Integrated Strategic Action Plan (English)’ 2019).

Figure 1. Visitor arrivals to Zanzibar 1985-2019

(‘International Tourist Arrivals 1985-2014’ n.d.; ‘Zanzibar - a World of Intrigue’, n.d.; ‘Tourism Statistic for 2015’ 2015;

‘Tourism Statistic for 2016’ 2016; ‘Tourism Statistical Release, February 2017-December 2019’ n.d.)

Figure 1 shows that visitor arrivals from 1985 and into the 2000s have increased four-fold over the decade between 2010 and 2019, however while officially not recognizing visitors via Tanzania Mainland before 2014. In 2018 the collective number of tourists of all nationalities represented 93.7 percent of the total number of visitors (‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’

2019).

Hotel beds have increased by over 40 percent from about 12,000 in 2011 (‘Zanzibar Costal and Marine Tourism Management Plan’ 2012) to 17,000 in 2018 (‘Tourism Statistical Release, February 2017-December 2019’ n.d.).

Tourism in Zanzibar has been seen to contribute to socio-economic development by inter alia employment opportunities, sources of income, foreign currency and an expanded market for small business and traditional goods (Thukia Wanjiku 2019). Notably, little income has reached

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

Number of visitors

Visitor arrivals via Tanzania Mainland by domestic flight or passenger ferry, 2015-2019 Direct visitor arrivals by international flight or cruise ship, 1985-2019

Combined international and domestic arrivals (unknown ratio), 2015

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poor coastal villages, who many times instead have had their access to the beach and fishing grounds restricted by hotels and consequently lost livelihoods (Mutayoba and Mbwete 2013, Lange 2015, Benansio et al. 2016).

However, beyond economic benefits, it has driven abandonment of traditional resource-use strategies and contributed to commoditization of local natural resources, possibly to be replaced by imports. This altogether has led to “…a self-reinforcing cycle of ecosystem degradation”

(p383, Gössling 2003). It is also officially seen as a major threat to the industry, in addition to enclave tourism, erosion of cultural values, institutional conflicts, uncontrolled hotel development, land use conflicts and low involvement of primary tourism stakeholders in decision making (‘Tourism Statistical Release, February 2017-December 2019’ n.d.).

2.2 Zanzibari small-scale fisheries

In Zanzibar 95 percent of the seafood production comes from small scale fisheries (Robinson, Samoilys, and Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association 2017). In 2016 the sector officially employed about 49,000 fishers, whereof 85 percent men and 15 percent women (‘Department of Fisheries Development (DFD) 2016. Marine Fisheries Frame Survey 2016, Zanzibar’ 2016). This employment rate equalled 4 percent of the projected population in 2016 (‘2012 Population and Housing Census’ 2013). Ngoka (2005, through Drury O’Neill et al.

2018) however reports a corresponding earlier figure of 28.7 percent.

The number of octopus fishers in 2016 has been estimated to 7,313. Of these 30 percent were female (Rocliffe, and Harris 2016), a relatively high proportion reflecting the historical importance of octopus fishing to women and children as one of their few sources of income.

This niche however is increasingly encroached upon by men due to a rise in demand and income opportunities (Guard and Mgaya 2002, Humber et al. 2006 through Guard 2009). The demand in turn is hypothesised to derive from a population of 1.3 million in 2012 (‘2012 Population and Housing Census’ 2013), projected to be 1.6 million in 2018 (‘Office of Chief Government Statistics’ n.d.) as well as hotels, being important consumers of seafood (Thyresson et al. 2013).

Overall, the local small-scale fisheries are reported as degraded, given continuously decreasing levels of fish biomass and biodiversity (Mkumbukwa 2014, through Drury O’Neill et al. 2018).

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2.3 Hotels in support of octopus closures

Short-term reef closures to safeguard octopus (hereafter “octopus closures”) originated in Madagascar but have spread across the Western Indian Ocean, where the species is of high commercial value for small-scale fisheries (Raberinary and Benbow 2012, Rocliffe and Harris 2016).

Closures produce, in addition to economic and social benefits, larger and more octopus, with typically pulses of high catches when opened (Lindkvist et al. 2019). If hotels, given their weight and freshness preferences as examined in this study, could absorb such supply surges they might incentivise further initiatives. Similarly, the success of an octopus closure is partly influenced by its timing, which in turn relates to social, environmental and economic factors (ibid). Here I study if seasonal dynamics in hotels’ buy price and demand may provide guidance.

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3 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Structural approach

In this chapter I cover:

1) general data collection methodology for the three research questions,

2) data sources and calculations of the seasonal buy price and demand for my interview sample as well as aggregate annual demand by hotels in Unguja.

Regarding data collection, I first describe in section 3.2.1 and 3.2.2 my sampling of hotels on basis of location and grade as per listings by the Zanzibar Commission for Tourism (“ZCT”). I explain how I started with a qualitative research approach but increasingly focused on quantitative aspects of the relation between hotels and octopus closures. In parallel, I explored using semi-structured inductive interviews but as the priority data became clearer I moved towards deductive survey style questions with hotels, hotel suppliers and central market traders.

In section 3.2.3 I detail my use of data on the Zanzibari octopus stock by the Department of Fisheries Development (“DFD), hotel and guesthouse (“hotels”) bed statistics, policy documents and tourism statistics by the ZCT and Office of Chief Government Statistician (“OCGS”).

In section 3.2.4 I reflect on the sampling of interviewees while main uncertainties of secondary data are detailed as part of the assessment methodology of hotels’ seasonal and annual demand, starting with an overview in section 3.3.1. Here I derived octopus demand estimates from the number of beds per hotel (section 3.3.4) combined with seasonal demand levels. Seasonal demand was based on hotels’ classification of months into high, low and no demand (section 3.3.2. The aggregated annual octopus demand by hotels in Unguja I eventually compared with national catch landings data from the Department of Fisheries Development.

Hotels and guesthouses are hereafter collectively referred to as “hotels".

3.2 Data collection

3.2.1 Site selection

Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous part of the United Republic of Tanzania (“Tanzania”) in East Africa (Figure 2a). It is located in the Western Indian Ocean off the coast of Tanzania and consists of two main islands, Unguja and Pemba (‘The World Factbook - Central Intelligence

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Agency’ 2019, ‘Landguiden | Utrikespolitiska Institutet’ 2020). 97 percent of officially listed hotels are found in Unguja (‘Zanzibar Commission for Tourism’ n.d.), where this study is focused.

a) b)

Figure 2. a) Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar, including Unguja and Pemba b) Unguja including the study sites Stone Town (Zanzibar City), Nungwi, Pwani Mchangani and Paje

Within Unguja, I selected the capital Stone Town (Zanzibar City) and coastal towns Nungwi, Pwani Mchangani and Paje (Figure 2b) as study locations in a first triage. Stone Town harbours the island’s main fish market Darajani while Nungwi, Pwani Mchangani and Paje, through its adjacency to Jambiani, are fishing communities with considerable presence of international hotels. Although I aimed for representativeness of the main hotel locations as listed by the ZCT (Table 1) and geographical spread, I was somewhat restricted by logistics in my selection of study sites.

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Table 1. Number of hotel interviews made per site in relation to hotel frequency as per Zanzibar Commission for Tourism

Site Number of hotel interviews Hotel frequency

Stone Town 8 53

Nungwi 7 25

Jambiani - 22

Matemwe - 18

Bwejuu - 15

Paje (adjacent to Jambiani) 3 14

Kiwengwa - 13

Pwani Mchangani 7 8

3.2.2 Interview methodology and interviewee selection

The initial research design was informed by Mwambao Coastal Community Network (www.mwambao.or.tz), a local partner organisation operating within small-scale fishery management, and a review of secondary sources. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between November and December 2019. The initial choice of semi-structured interviews progressively turned into a standardized interview guide as the priority data became clearer and I moved from inductive towards deductive questions. The interviews were either made independently in English or in Kiswahili assisted by a local interpreter and research professional within small-scale fisheries.

Three categories of value chain agents were of main focus: international hotels (n=25), hotel suppliers (n=7) and Darajani market traders (n=10). These I asked about their position within the octopus value chain, volumes traded or bought as well as buy and sell price, weight preferences and freezing capacity where applicable.

Additional reference interviews were made with restaurants (n=3), food importers (n=2) and key informants (n=6). The latter were active professionals within a local Shehia fishing committee, Department of Fisheries Development, fishery related research and NGOs as well as a former executive chef.

Having selected study sites in a first triage, I now sampled 21 hotels on basis of grade (Table 2) as listed by the ZCT. An additional 3 hotels were unrated and selected on opportunistic basis. Due to limited access and responsiveness I attained only 4.2% representativeness of the lower guesthouse segment representing 48% of the ZCT hotel population.

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Table 2. Hotel sample representativeness vis-á-vis hotels registered at the Zanzibar Commission for Tourism (ZCT) 2018 (‘Zanzibar Commission for Tourism’ n.d., ‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019).

Number of hotels per grade

Proportion of observations per grade

Grade Sample distribution

ZCT, 2018

Sample distribution (%)

ZCT, 2018 (%)

Five 4 25 16.6 4.9

Four 2 17 8.3 3.3

Three 4 54 16.6 10.6

Two 2 9 8.3 1.7

One 7 98 29.2 19.2

Guest House - upper level

2 62 8.3 12.2

Guest House - lower level

1 244 4.2 48.0

Unrated 3 n/a 12.5 n/a

Total 24 509 104.0 99.9

I assumed hotels’ grade to have twofold indications – firstly a higher grade would be more closely linked to high consumption tourists. Secondly a higher grade would indicate rooms holding a larger number of beds.

Three visits were made to Darijani market for opportunistic interviews complemented by field observations. The ten octopus traders interviewed represent about half of the actual number of permanent octopus traders on basis of their own respective assessments.

Hotel suppliers were sampled through snowballing where hotel interviewees were asked for contact details.

3.2.3 Secondary data

Hotel grades and room data

I used ZCT hotel grades, but when unavailable I matched hotel pricing from a booking website with ZCT grade categories as a proxy (‘Zanzibar Commission for Tourism’ n.d., (‘Booking.Com | Official Site | The Best Hotels & Accommodation’ n.d.). Additionally I used guidebook literature (McIntyre and McIntyre 2017) to obtain figure in rooms per hotel when not given in interviews.

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Tourism statistics

For tourism data I drew upon monthly tourism reports and national statistics by the OCGS (‘Tourism Statistical Release, February 2017-December 2019’ n.d., ‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019), supported by raw data and policy documentation by the ZCT (‘International Tourist Arrivals 1985-2014’ n.d.; ‘Tourism Statistic for 2015’ 2015; ‘Tourism Statistic for 2016’ 2016; ‘Zanzibar Costal and Marine Tourism Management Plan’ 2012).

Zanzibari octopus production

Here I used the mean annual octopus catch, Zanzibar, 2008-2018 (Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Program - SWIOFish 2018) as a first point of reference. Additionally, I used the catch landings distribution for all species between Unguja and Pemba (Department of Fisheries Development 2019).

3.2.4 Reflection on sources

In section 3.2.4.1 I reflect on the sampling of interviewees. I detail main uncertainties of secondary data as part my overview of demand calculations, in section 3.3.1, Table 3.

3.2.4.1 Sampling of interviewees

Hotel interviewees consisted of executive chefs, purchase managers and general managers or supervisors. These are not always personally responsible for octopus purchasing, which may have affected the reliability of their responses.

With the study focusing on hotels as octopus end consumers, interview efforts were concentrated to these and their suppliers rather than spread over the entire value chain. This allowed for more certainty around my research questions of hoteliers’ demand proportions and nature of demand, while my assessment of octopus value chain nodes thereby was deprived of some chances of triangulation.

Nevertheless, there is a clear under-representation of lower level guest houses, as shown in the comparison of relative number of observations between the sample and ZCT 2018 data (Table 2).

There could be a gender bias as the study does not involve any explicit data on the prominence of women as hotel suppliers and hoteliers. Hotel suppliers interviewed were exclusively men.

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This seems to reflect the fact that despite men and women both trading with octopus, Zanzibari women traders have less access to social and economic resources and profitable markets (Fröcklin et al. 2013), presumably excluding them from the tourism value chain.

3.3 Seasonal and annual demand assessment methodology

Here I present my assessment methodology of seasonal and annual octopus demand by hotels as follows:

1) Section 3.3.1 gives an overview of calculations of monthly octopus prices as well as seasonal and annual octopus demand including the potential impact of my main assumptions and data uncertainties.

2) Section 3.3.2 explains the qualitative classification by hotels into months of high, low and zero demand, which I use as basis for two-week quantifications of demand and perceptions of monthly price levels.

3) Section 3.3.3 looks at construction of hotel segments for annual demand assessment and 3.3.4 at beds per room for annual demand assessment. These are both components of annual demand calculations.

4) In section 3.3.5 I reflect on the chosen methodology.

3.3.1 Overview of calculations and data uncertainties

Below follows an overview of data use and calculations of seasonal octopus prices and demand.

I then used seasonal demand to raise into an aggregate annual demand. Here I also discuss the potential impact of my main assumptions and data uncertainties.

Figure 3 details data sources and calculations for hotels’ seasonal octopus demand and monthly octopus price levels.

Firstly, through interviews I obtained hoteliers’ classifications of months of high, low and zero octopus demand which I triangulated with monthly tourist arrivals. Secondly, I constructed seasonal demand in two-week intervals, by using hoteliers’ classification of months of high and low demand as basis and subsequently applied demand volumes.

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To assess hoteliers seasonal octopus buy prices, I similarly started by asking for their respective view on months of high, low and zero demand and to these I applied monthly octopus price levels.

Figure 3. Overview of data sources and calculations of sampled hotels’ seasonal octopus demand and monthly octopus buy prices.

I interviewed hoteliers on their perceptions of months of high, low and zero octopus demand, which I triangulated with official monthly visitor arrivals (‘Tourism Statistical Release, February 2017-December 2019’ n.d.). I then applied hoteliers’ stated octopus purchase volumes, occasionally given in two-week intervals and buy prices onto the classifications to obtain seasonal demand and prices. Months of zero demand were excluded from mean calculations of prices.

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Figure 4. Overview of data sources and calculations of aggregate annual demand by hotels in Unguja.

Aggregate annual demand estimates (S) were derived from calculated data such as seasonal demand of sampled hotels (A), interviews with hoteliers, official data and miscellaneous secondary sources. I used the number of available beds per night in Unguja and beds per hotel segment as two separate bases for calculations. I finally related demand estimates (S) to octopus production in Zanzibar (T) and respectively Unguja (V) to assess the proportion of demand by hotels. Official data as per B) (‘Zanzibar Costal and Marine Tourism Management Plan’ 2012), C) (‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019), E) and I) (‘Zanzibar Commission for Tourism’ n.d.), P) (‘Tourism Statistical Release, February 2017-December 2019’ n.d.), T) (Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Program - SWIOFish 2018), U) (Department of Fisheries Development 2019). Miscellaneous secondary sources as per D) (‘Booking.Com | Official Site | The Best Hotels &

Accommodation’ n.d.) and G) (McIntyre and McIntyre 2017).

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Figure 4 details data sources and calculations of aggregate annual demand by hotels in Unguja.

I used seasonal demand volumes combined with two bases for calculations retrieved from official sources: number of available beds per night in Unguja and beds per hotel segment (‘Zanzibar Costal and Marine Tourism Management Plan’ 2012, ‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019). In addition, I used data on rooms per hotel from guidebook literature (McIntyre and McIntyre 2017) when not given in interviews. When ZCT hotel grades were unavailable (n=3) I matched USD prices for standard double rooms with ZCT grade categories as a proxy (‘Zanzibar Commission for Tourism’ n.d., (‘Booking.Com | Official Site | The Best Hotels &

Accommodation’ n.d.) Here I constructed a conversion table informed by rating linkages with expense levels made within guidebook literature (Table 15). Finally, to relate my aggregated annual octopus demand by hotels in Unguja to octopus production, I used the mean annual octopus catch, Zanzibar, 2008-2018 (Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Program - SWIOFish 2018) as a first point of reference. Additionally, I used the catch landings distribution for all species between Unguja and Pemba (Department of Fisheries Development 2019) to derive an estimated mean annual octopus catch specific for Unguja, 2008-2018.

Table 3. Potential impact of main data uncertainties on calculations and estimated proportion of annual hotel demand in Unguja

# Source of uncertainty Calculation impacted Impact on estimated

proportion of hotel demand in Unguja 1) Official octopus catch data may be

underestimated

Mean annual octopus catch, Zanzibar, 2008- 2018

Overestimate 2) Proportion of Pemba and Unguja octopus

catches might differ

Estimated mean annual octopus catch, Unguja, 2008-2018

Overestimate 3) Number of hotels may be underestimated Aggregate annual octopus demand by hotels

in Unguja on basis of total number of beds per night

Underestimated

4) Hotels may be undergraded Aggregate annual octopus demand by hotels in Unguja on basis of number of beds per hotel segment. Annual demand per bed within the five-star segment is relatively higher (Figure 11).

Underestimated

5) Hotels’ respective demand reporting across seasons. Collective levels for October-November appear

underestimated compared to official visitor levels.

Aggregate annual octopus demand by hotels in Unguja

Underestimated

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Table 3 displays the potential impact of main data uncertainties on calculations and the estimated proportion of hotel demand in Unguja. These uncertainties are in detail as follows;

1) Total Zanzibari octopus catch is based on data by the Department of Fisheries Development.

It is extrapolated from observations at 30 official landing sites over 14 days per month to 217 sites over a month (personal observation) and not reported to UN FAO until 2005.

Corresponding catch data for Tanzania mainland has been estimated to be 1.7 times larger than officially reported (Jacquet and Zeller 2007). This suggests an overestimated proportion of hotel demand.

2) The octopus catch for Pemba and Unguja is assumed to be of the same proportion as for official 2018 catch levels of all species collectively Pemba (Department of Fisheries Development 2019), 38 percent for Pemba versus 62 percent respectively for Unguja. However, undated data by the Indian Ocean Commission (de San and Yvergniaux n.d.) states octopus production in Pemba to be 250 tonnes per annum, suggesting a ratio of 23 percent and an overestimate of the proportion of hotel demand.

3) ZCT hotel listings were incomplete as they contained only 228 of the official total of 509 registered hotels (http://zanzibartourism.go.tz/, December 2019). I assume the actual number of hotels has an underestimating effect on my final proportional octopus demand.

4) The ZCT does not state methodology of hotel gradings and when these were updated.

Random comparisons between interview sites and listings suggest that standards have improved (personal observation) and that higher-consuming five-star hotels are not fully accounted for.

5) Hotels’ respective demand reporting across seasons is uncertain. Collective octopus demand levels for October-November (Figure 8) appear underestimated compared to official visitor levels (Figure 7), suggesting a consequent underestimate on annual basis.

Table 4 details how unconfirmed imports from mainland Tanzanzia and China could potentially impact my calculation of total consumption in Unguja on basis of inflows. If the imports are real my estimate of hotel demand in proportion to supply in Unguja would be overestimated.

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Table 4. Potential impact of main data gap on calculations and estimated proportion of hotel demand in Unguja

Unknown Calculation impacted Impact on estimated hotel demand in proportion to supply in Unguja

a) Imports from Tanzania partly unaccounted for and Chinese imports unconfirmed

Total consumption in Unguja on basis of inflows

Overestimate

3.3.2 Hotels’ classification of months of high, low and no demand

I conducted hotel interviews in an initial exploratory phase (n=5) in which I tried to identify whether bigger hotels were indeed large consumers and where I focused on periods of high consumption. In a second phase (n=14) I probed deeper into months of both high and low consumption in order to quantify total annual levels.

Out of the 24 sampled hotels, data from 19 was sufficient to assess octopus demand volume.

These contain statements about perceived months of high and low demand, occasionally complemented with months of hotel closures. There was no demand in times of hotel closure although this may also have occurred in times low demand. I subsequently constructed a

“medium” demand level as an average of demand volumes given for high and low months.

If demand was expressed by a respondent as a range within a particular month, I would use the mean value. If an interviewee explicitly stated that demand differed within monthly intervals, I would divide these into two-week periods to increase granularity although I hypothesized that the actual categorization of months into high, low and no demand would have a considerably higher influence.

I triangulated hotels’ stated months of high, medium, low and no demand in times of hotel closures with monthly visitor arrivals (‘Tourism Statistical Release, February 2017-December 2019’ n.d.). The qualitative demand classifications (Figure 8) lie as basis for subsequent two- week quantifications of hotels’ demand and perceptions of monthly price levels (4.2.1.2).

The stated price level was hypothesized as being high in times of high demand.

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3.3.3 Construction of hotel segments for annual demand assessment

I downscale the known number of beds for Zanzibar in 2018 (‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019) into a respective number per hotel segment. These segments are used as one of the bases for assessing aggregate annual octopus demand by hotels in Unguja and created as per (Table 5).

Table 5. Construction of hotel segments.

Beds per hotel segment were used as one of the bases for assessing aggregate annual octopus demand by hotels in Unguja.

Here the hotel segments are constructed by merging four- and three-star hotel hotels and respectively two- and one-star hotels with upper guest houses, while five-star hotels and lower guest houses are left to represent independent segments. The lower guest house segment has however no sample observations.

(‘Zanzibar Costal and Marine Tourism Management Plan’ 2012, ‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019) Hotel

grades

Mean grade proportion of 1) newly registered hotel beds 2018 and 2) total number of beds in 2011

Constructed segment

Total

proportion of hotel beds per constructed segment

Notes

Five Stars 21.1% Five Stars 21.1%

Four Stars 10.6% Four to Three Stars

22.2%

Three Stars 11.6%

Two Stars 3.2% Two Stars to Upper Guest House

25.6%

One Stars 15.6%

Upper Guest House

6.7%

Lower Guest House

31.1% Lower Guest

House

31.1% No demand

observations for

" Lower Guest House”

3.3.4 Beds per room for annual demand assessment

If not obtained through interviews (n=5), beds per hotel were derived from data on rooms (McIntyre and McIntyre 2017, n=7 and interviews n=7) by use of a conversion table (Table 6).

The table was created as an average of the respective beds per room for the national total of hotels in 2011 and newly registered in 2018 (‘Zanzibar Costal and Marine Tourism Management Plan’ 2012, ‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019).

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Table 6. Beds per room.

Conversion from rooms per hotel to beds per hotel based on an average of the national total of beds and rooms in 2011 and beds and rooms for newly registered hotels in 2018 (‘Zanzibar Costal and Marine Tourism Management Plan’ 2012,

‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019).

Beds per room Five Stars 1.59

Four Stars 1.87 Three Stars 1.82 Two Stars 1.87 One Stars 1.82 AA - Upper

Guest House

1.60 A - Lower

Guest House

1.72

3.3.5 Reflection on methodology

My move from inductive to deductive research allowed for more focused data collection with shorter interviews. It coincided with a transition towards quantitative research which helped me avoid asking leading questions. I believe this step was beneficial as I experienced myself frequently being treated similarly to a hotel guest, with a risk of interviewees responding too accommodatively.

After an initial verbatim quality check of translation, I decided with my interpreter to proceed by use of direct oral translation while interviewing. Here I considered the consequent loss of nuance acceptable given my use of survey style questions. I gradually learnt relevant Kiswahili vocabulary and asked for clarifications when needed.

I assumed the same base pattern applied for price and demand seasonality (Figure 3) as indicated by interviewees. However, stronger separation between demand and price data collection combined with a cross-reference with seasonal octopus production levels would have allowed for a more reliable assessment of price seasonality. However, the most relevant methodology for such approaches needs to be carefully considered.

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4 RESEARCH RESULTS

In this chapter I present my research results as follows:

1) In section 4.1 I characterize Zanzibari octopus production from a historical and geographical perspective. I then zoom in on hotels in Unguja and their perception of origin and use of octopus intermediaries.

2) In section 4.2 I look at seasonality and significance of demand. My seasonality assessments consist of an initial comparison between yearly peak and bottom demand volumes, followed by demand and price levels laid out over a typical year in section 4.2.1.2. I base demand and price levels on hoteliers’ perception of demand seasonality as per section 4.2.1.1, which I triangulate with official data on visitor levels. I finally complement these qualitative assessments by a quantitative estimate of the yearly aggregate hotel demand in section 4.2.2.

3) Lastly, I examine the nature of demand from Zanzibari hotels through their weight in section 4.3.1 and freshness preferences along with freezer capacity in section 4.3.2.

4.1 Octopus supply through a value chain perspective

Figure 5. Annual octopus catch volumes, Zanzibar 2008-2018.

(Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Program - SWIOFish 2018)

Within Unguja and Pemba, a yearly average of about 1 million kilograms (1,071,429 kilos) of octopus were produced between 2008-2018, according to the SWIOFish and the Department of Fisheries Development (Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Program - SWIOFish 2018). The data however is uncertain due to heavy extrapolation (personal observation). Furthermore it may be underestimated considering unreported catches primarily

600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1 400 000 1 600 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kilograms

Annual octopus catch volumes, Zanzibar, 2008-2018

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by use of spear gun, an illegal fishing tool. The background to the 2011-2012 dip and subsequent rise 2013-2014 is unknown, but the levels between 2016-2019 are in line with the average and therefore I choose to compare them with contemporary demand levels. There are no island specific data for Unguja and Pemba on octopus catches. However, as an indication of their distribution of octopus production, Unguja contributed by 62 percent respectively to the 35 million kilograms production of all fish species in 2018, whereof octopus consequently made up about three percent (Department of Fisheries Development 2019).

Figure 6. Value chain of Zanzibari internal and external octopus trade based on interviews, official statistics, and secondary data.

Production is constituted by catches in Pemba, Unguja, Tanzanian archipelago and mainland. These are complemented by imports from Mozambique and possibly China. Consumption is represented by local consumers, hotels and restaurants in Unguja. (Department of Fisheries Development 2019, Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Program - SWIOFish 2018, Rocliffe and Harris 2016, Drury O’Neill et al. 2018).

Figure 6 details the relation between internal and external Zanzibari octopus trade. Official records state that octopus exports over 2008-2016 are largely insignificant (Southwest Indian

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Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Program - SWIOFish 2018). However informal conversations with key informants indicated that there are exports from Pemba to Southern Kenya (U40), although its significance is unknown.

Flow volumes provided by a key informant (U13) correspond to around 25 percent of the approximate 407 tonnes yearly production in Pemba being exported to Unguja, seemingly by passenger ferries. Together with an estimated minimum of 50 tonnes from Tanga on the Tanzanian mainland, these flows contribute by at least 23 percent to the local supply in Unguja and correspond to somewhere between 52 to 88 percent of the hotel demand (expanded upon in Table 10).

An interviewed supplier stated that octopus is imported by container ships from China in line with other seafood (U39). However, two leading seafood importers denied working with octopus and had no knowledge of any such imports from China or elsewhere (U40, U53).

Table 7. Hotels' perception of octopus origin.

Each cell represents the share of hotels reporting a specific location of origin as close to the source as known. Consideration is not taken of flow volumes. Hotels are categorised into coastal areas (Nungwi, n=7, Pwani Mchangani, n=6 and Paje, n=3) as opposed to Stone Town (n=8).

Sourcing via Stone Town Sourcing outside of Stone Town

Stone Town, excludin g Darajani market

Dar es Salaa m

Darija ni market

Pemb a

Nung wi

Matem we

Mkokotoni, Paje (respectivel y)

Pwani Mchanga ni

Kiweng wa

Chwaka, Fumba, Kizimkazi, Makunduchi, Michamvi (respectively)

Pongw e

Coastal hotels

(n=16) 38% 6% 0% 13% 38% 19% 19% 13% 6% 0% 6%

Stone Town hotels

(n=8) 13% 25% 25% 13% 25% 13% 0% 13% 13% 13% 0%

Coastal hotels in Nungwi, Paje and Pwani Mchangani state they source predominantly from Nungwi and Stone Town excluding the Darajani market (Table 7). The high rate of sourcing from Nungwi is found to derive mainly from demand by local hotels. The significant rate of sourcing from Stone Town amongst coastal hotels coincides with their high use of suppliers (Table 8). The interview sample, without representation of hotels south of Paje, does not exhibit any sourcing from southern Unguja.

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Stone Town hotels rely on confirmed direct imports as well as local sourcing with and without involvement of the central Darajani market, potentially involving further imports. Contrary to coastal hotels they also partly source from Chwaka, Fumba, Kizimkazi, Makunduchi, Michamvi which are all landing sites in southern Unguja.

Finally, both coastal and Stone Town-based hotels rely on the northern landing sites of Nungwi, Matemwe, Pwani Mchangani and Kiwengwa. In conclusion, Stone Town hotels source from a seemingly wider geographical spectrum than their coastal counterparts.

Table 8. Hotels' stated use of octopus intermediaries.

Each cell represents the share of hotels using a specific intermediary category, however without consideration of flow volumes. Hotels are categorised into coastal areas (Nungwi, n=7, Paje, n=3 and Pwani Mchangani, n=6) as opposed to Stone Town (n=8).

Suppliers Fish shops Darijani

fish market

Local fishers Local fish markets, excluding Darajani

Fish themselves

Coastal hotels 69% 6% 0% 25% 19% 0%

Stone Town hotels 50% 38% 38% 25% 25% 13%

Table 8 show that coastal hotels predominantly rely on direct contact with suppliers and to a notably less extent on local fishers and markets for octopus sourcing. These three categories are mentioned nearly as frequently by hotels in Stone Town, which however also largely depend on urban fish shops along with the central market in Darajani. One Stone Town hotel exclusively relies on staff fishing by its’ home communities.

4.2 Demand and price seasonality, significance of demand

4.2.1 Seasonality of octopus demand and price levels

4.2.1.1 Qualitative assessments of demand seasonality – comparing hoteliers’ perception with official data

Italians, Spanish and French visitors were identified as the main octopus consumers (U38). On average these represented 11%, 6% and respectively 2% of the overall number of visitors over 2017-2018 (‘Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2018’ 2019).

(Figure 7) exhibits a clear seasonal pattern for Italians, Spanish and French visitors, while the collective of all applicable nationalities display the same but less attenuated distribution of

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months of high and low levels of arrivals. I explain this by the group of all nationalities, although overwhelmingly consisting of tourists, holding a somewhat higher variety of visitor types than Italians, Spanish and French. Also, tourists of more diverse origin than the Mediterranean group can be assumed not to share vacation periods to the same extent.

December-January as well as August represent two distinct yearly peaks in visitor numbers for both groups. Oppositely, April-May represent the months of lowest demand. (Figure 7)

Hoteliers’ perceived seasonal octopus demand (Figure 8), display high similarity with the official data on visitor levels (Figure 7) over December-January and April-May. An executive chef of a large-scale hotel specifies the seasonal dynamics:

“From 15 December until the end of March all hotels are booked. The rainy season is between April and May. June to September is busy. In October and November it is raining.” (U41)

While the level of Italians, Spanish and French visitors does exhibit a tangible decline from August to November, it never falls short of the mean (Figure 7). The hoteliers’ perceived stagnation in November (Figure 8) is thus not fully supported by official data. Their collective view can perhaps be explained by the timing of interviews from early November onwards, when hoteliers were likely hopeful of a relative surge over Christmas.

Finally, the level of closed hotels remains relatively low over the year (Figure 8).

To conclude, hoteliers’ perception of seasonality aligns well with official visitors statistics. This supports the respective use of high, medium, low and zero demand and high, medium, low prices in calculation of seasonal demand and prices (4.2.1.2).

4.2.1.2 Demand seasonality – high versus low volume ratio, two-week demand quantifications, monthly price levels

The second interview phase (3.3) detailed not only hoteliers’ perceptions of months of high versus low demand but also the respective demand volumes of the two categories of months.

The ratio between high versus low demand (Table 9) provides an initial quantification of demand seasonality.

Table 9. Volume ratio between months of high to low demand Including U41 outlier Excluding U41 outlier

Mean (n=15) 3.2 Mean (n=14) 2.9

Sample variance 3.3 Sample variance 2.0

Stockholm Resilience Centre

Master’s Thesis, 60 ECTS

Social-ecological Resilience for Sustainable Development Master’s programme 2018/20, 120 ECTS

Tourism and marine resource conservation tentacle in tentacle?

Zanzibari hotels as biosphere stewards in support of octopus closures

Michael Bohlin

Stockholm Resilience Centre

Sustainability Science for Biosphere Stewardship

Abstract

Dibaji

Acknowledgements

List of Illustrations

List of Illustrations, continued

List of Abbreviations

Contents

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem statement

1.2 Research aim

1.3 Research questions

1.4 Thesis outline

2 CASE DESCRIPTION 2.1 Tourism in Zanzibar

2.2 Zanzibari small-scale fisheries

2.3 Hotels in support of octopus closures

3 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Structural approach

3.2 Data collection

3.3 Seasonal and annual demand assessment methodology

4 RESEARCH RESULTS

4.1 Octopus supply through a value chain perspective

4.2 Demand and price seasonality, significance of demand