1. General description of the security situation in Afghanistan
1.6 Geographical overview of the security situation
1.6.1 Urban/rural divide
Afghanistan’s history is characterised by a structural urban-rural divide. Urban centres have been hubs for administration, market-driven methods of production, taxation, education and reforms. This contributed to the success of opposition among the rural population, which did not benefit from these developments. (189)
In general, Afghan urban centres are seen as more secure than rural areas. Some urban centres suffer more insecurity, including Kandahar, Gardez (190) and Khost (191), while, as figures from 2009 until 2015 show, Mazar-e Sharif and Herat counted the lowest numbers of civilian victims in their city centres. Nevertheless, when urban centres do experience high-profile attacks, these can have a severe psychological impact on the population and often cause high casualties. (192) See also section 1.3 on recent security trends in the city of Kunduz.
1.6.2 Regional differences
Information obtained from a Western security official made mention of a total of 15,714 security incidents in Afghanistan from 1 January until 31 August 2015. (193)
(181) UNHCR, UNHCR facilitates the return of 51,000 Afghans refugees from Pakistan, 27 August 2015.
(182) IOM, Return of Undocumented Afghans from Pakistan, updated: 19 September 2015; IOM, Sharp Increase in Afghans Returning from Pakistan Raises Concerns, 6 February 2015; HRW, Pakistan: Stop Forced Returns of Afghans, 21 February 2015; HRW, What Are You Doing Here?, 18 November 2015.
(183) UNHCR, Afghanistan voluntary repatriation and border monitoring monthly update, 1 January-31 August 2015, 31 August 2015, p. 1.
(184) UNHCR, Afghanistan voluntary repatriation and border monitoring monthly update, 1 January-31 August 2015, 31 August 2015, p. 1.
(185) ERCC, ECHO Daily Map, Afghanistan and Pakistan: Refugees, 13 October 2015.
(186) UNOCHA, Afghanistan 2015 Humanitarian response plan, Midyear review, July 2015, p. 3.
(187) UNHCR, Afghanistan conflict-induced internal displacement monthly update, July 2015.
(188) Khaama Press, Around 100,000 people internally displaced in Kundoz because of violence, 9 October 2015.
(189) Giustozzi, A. and Ibrahimi, N., Thirty Years of Conflict: Drivers of anti-Government Mobilisation in Afghanistan, 1978-2011, January 2012, pp. 7-8.
(190) Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, State of Afghan cities, volume one, 2015, pp. 22-23; 62-63; Anonymous source specialised in security in Afghanistan, emails and briefing, July - October 2015.
(191) Anonymous source specialised in security in Afghanistan, emails and briefing, July - October 2015.
(192) Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, State of Afghan cities, volume one, 2015, pp. 22-23; Latifi, Ali M., Skype interview, 7 September 2015.
(193) Anonymous source specialised in security in Afghanistan, emails and briefing, July - September 2015.
UNAMA reported in its 2015 Midyear report on the regional spread of civilian victims. From 2009 until 2015, an overall increase in numbers is noticed in all regions, with a few exceptions including for example the year 2012 for the eastern and southern regions: (194)
Figure 2: Civilian casualties by region (UNAMA)
The UN reported that during the summer of 2015: ‘the majority of incidents were reported in the southern and eastern parts of the country, with the provinces of Kandahar, Nangarhar, Ghazni, Hilmand and Kunar accounting for 44.5 per cent of all security incidents’. But the conflict has substantially spread in ‘the north-eastern regions around Kunduz, Badakhshan and Badghis Provinces, in the north-west towards Faryab Province, in the south-east region of Nangarhar Province and in the south, including Hilmand Province’. (195)
The Institute for the Study of War published a map indicating insurgent support and attack areas (from April to October 2015). (196)
In Figure 3, an overview per province of the security incidents is shown on a map. (197)
(194) UNAMA, Afghanistan Midyear Report 2015, Protection of civilians in armed conflict, August 2015, pp. 6-9.
(195) UN Security Council, The situation in Afghanistan and its implications for international peace and security, 1 September 2015, p. 4; UN Security Council, The situation in Afghanistan and its implications for international peace and security, 10 June 2015, p. 4.
(196) ISW, Militant attack and support zones in Afghanistan: April- October 6, 2015, 6 October 2015.
(197) Map created by EASO: data on incidents provided by Western security official (see introduction).
Figure 3: Afghanistan: security incidents per province (Jan – Aug 2015)
In Figure 4, an overview is given per province of how the number of violent incidents relates to the number of inhabitants, which can be used as one indicator in the assessment of the ‘real risk’ of civilians suffering harm due to violent incidents. However, this is only one possible indicator among others. The risk for an individual in a province is very complex to estimate and depends on a combination of elements, such as detailed information on the nature and target of the violent incidents, the locations where they take place, the extent of civilian casualties, etc. Further information on the violent incidents taken into account in this quantitative calculation and more information on relevant indicators can be found in each provincial part of this report under ‘Regional description of the security situation’. The population estimates come from the Afghanistan Central Statistics Organization (ACSO: 2012-13). The reference period for security incidents is also 1 January – 31 August 2015. (198)
Figure 4: Security incidents compared to population (Jan – Aug 2015)
(198) Map created by EASO, sources: ACSO, Settled Population of Kunar province by Civil Division, Urban, Rural and Sex-2012-2013; data on incidents provided by Western security official (see introduction).
1.6.3 Road security
It was reported that overall road security has not improved. Due to the increased Taliban control over rural areas (see section on armed clashes and assaults under recent security trends) roads are less safe and people from some districts are cut off from the cities. Sources mentioned the example of Bamyan, which has basically two access roads: one via Wardak that was traditionally considered as the most dangerous of both (called Road of death due to insecurity), and one via Parwan through the Ghorband Valley. People used to take the latter route; however, recently the Taliban has been attacking targets on the road to such an extent that people prefer to go via Wardak. (199) A Western security official stated that road security and the possibility to travel via different routes in Afghanistan must be assessed from day to day. (200)
Ruttig and Münch reported that since 2013, insurgents were more successful in cutting off major highways, especially in the north. (201) It was reported that, since early 2014, insurgents increasingly control main transport and access routes. (202) Several reports indicate the inaccessibility of roads due to insurgent activities. (203) For example, in October 2015 the Taliban blocked the major highway from Kabul to Kandahar. The road has a history of insecurity and fighting, but now the entire road was blocked causing all traffic to be stopped. This resulted in fighting between ANSF and the Taliban around the road, with incidents reported in Ghazni and Zabul. Blocked travellers reportedly had to flee the fighting. (204)
This has continued and increased. For example, an Afghan journalist reported on his travel to the province of Ghor.
He explained that: ‘137 commanders control 70% of the province. To get from point A to point B, most times means passing by three or four different commanders with checkpoints and they stop you and want to know what you are doing.’ (205) As another example, a shopkeeper from Farah city supplying vegetables and fruit to other shops in Kabul, Herat and Kandahar mentioned road insecurity as a problem: ‘Many roads are inaccessible because the Taliban stop our cars. Some years ago, my father was kidnapped and we had to pay all our savings to get him freed.’ (206) Kidnapping reports are increasing, for example, UNAMA reported: ‘On 16 February, Anti-Government Elements abducted a driver in Shib Koh district, Farah province, and demanded a ransom for his release. On 16 March, local villagers found the driver’s remains in Qala-e-Kah district, Farah province, following failure to pay the ransom.’ (207) During a Meshrano Jirga (upper-house in Parliament) meeting, senators underlined the increased abductions on highways and one legislator warned her colleagues: ‘Kidnapping on the highways has now become a trend and we are extremely worried about these incidents. If the issue is not addressed, we will witness more serious kidnapping incidents.’ (208)
UNOCHA reported already in 2014 that, due to the intensification of the conflict, the ability of the population to reach health facilities had decreased. The causes were: unofficial/illegal checkpoints, military action and lack of public transport. (209)
(199) Latifi, Ali M., Skype interview, 7 September 2015; Anonymous source specialised in security in Afghanistan, emails and briefing, July - October 2015;
Afghanistan, Ministry of Counter-Narcotics, Established Fruit Orchards in Daikundi Benefited All Districts of the Province, n.d.
(200) Anonymous source specialised in security in Afghanistan, emails and briefing, July - September 2015.
(201) Münch, P. and Ruttig, T., ‘Between Negotiations and Ongoing Resistance. The Situation of the Afghan Insurgency’, 2014.
(202) ICG, Afghanistan’s Insurgency after the Transition, 12 May 2014; Nederland, Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, Algemeen Ambtsbericht Afghanistan, September 2014, p. 28.
(203) Pajhwok Afghan News, Khas Uruzgan road reopens after 3 months, 9 July 2015; Van Bijlert, M., Trouble in Khas Uruzgan: Insults, assaults, a siege and an airlift, 2 September 2015.
(204) Osman, B., The Road to Ghazni: Bombs, battles and blockades, 13 July 2013; Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Kabul Kandahar highway remains closed off, 12 October 2015; Al Jazeera, Afghan travellers stranded after Taliban blocks highway, 14 October 2015.
(205) Latifi, Ali M., Skype interview, 7 September 2015.
(206) Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, State of Afghan cities, volume one, 2015, p. 68.
(207) UNAMA, Afghanistan Midyear Report 2015, Protection of civilians in armed conflict, August 2015, p. 62.
(208) Tolonews, Senators Blast Government Over Insecurity in North, 26 April 2015.
(209) UNOCHA, 2015 Humanitarian Needs Overview Afghanistan, November 2014, p. 8.