2. Regional description of the security situation in Afghanistan
2.1 Centre
2.1.2 Kabul Province
Description of the violence
From 1 January to 31 August 2015, Kabul province counted 352 security incidents, including the incidents in the district of Kabul city. Table 1 provides an overview of the nature of the security incidents, including and excluding the numbers of incidents in the district of Kabul city (see previous section): (263)
Incl. city Excl. city
Violence targeting individuals 40 3
Armed confrontations 68 53
Explosions 103 35
Security enforcement 94 44
Non-conflict related violent incidents 40 0
Other violent incidents 7 0
Total security incidents 352 135
Table 2: Security incidents by type, Kabul province (1 Jan – 31 August 2015)
The map in figure 5 presents the number of security incidents per district in Kabul province. (264)
Figure 5: Kabul province: security incidents (Jan - Aug 2015)
Most volatile in Kabul province is the district of Surobi. Here, most of the heavy fighting between insurgents and international military forces (French) happened in the Uzbin valley. Uzbin is a side valley in Surobi on the way to Jalalabad. The valley extends for some 30 kilometres north of the district centre and the highway that crosses it. Uzbin is nestled among other insecure districts, such as Tagab of Kapisa province, Qarghayi and Badpakh of Laghman and Hesarak in Nangarhar, to which it connects through relatively traversable passes. This location has had a negative impact on the security situation in Surobi. (265) The broader area is reported as being increasingly controlled by the armed opposition and became an important crossing point and sanctuary for insurgents. (266)
Analyst Fabrizio Foschini stated in July 2015 ‘[r]ecently, security on the [Kabul-Jalalabad] highway has deteriorated again, with recurrent attacks against ANSF posts and vehicles even in broad daylight. Most happened where the road abuts the mouth of the Uzbin valley.’ (267)
(263) For more information on the source of the data and the methodology, see introduction.
(264) For more information on the source and the methodology of the maps, see introduction.
(265) Pajhwok Afghan News, Kabul province some parts experiencing insecurity: Residents, 2 December 2013.
(266) Foschini F., Classics of Conflict (2): Reviewing some of Afghanistan’s most notorious hotspots, 9 July 2015; APPRO, Afghanistan: Monitoring Women’s Security in Transition, October 2013, p. 19; Pajhwok Afghan News, Hesarak on the verge of falling to rebels, 12 July 2014.
(267) Foschini F., Classics of Conflict (2): Reviewing some of Afghanistan’s most notorious hotspots, 9 July 2015.
The Taliban presence in Musayi and Guldara goes underreported, according to analyst Thomas Ruttig. (268)
A major attack was staged in Qarabagh district in October 2014, when a bomb exploded on market day, injuring 22 civilians, including children. (269) In April 2015, an IED targeting a police vehicle in Qarabagh district killed four policemen and two civilians, injuring two more. (270)
In December 2014, an attack targeting an ANSF vehicle killed and wounded several security personnel in Deh Sabz.
The attacker planned to execute his suicide mission in Kabul city, but when intercepted targeted the police who came to arrest him. (271) In May 2015, an influential jihadi commander was killed by gunmen on his way home in Deh Sabz district. (272)
In July 2015, a child was injured in an explosion in Baghrami district, when two suicide bombs went off, according to Khaama Press, apparently due to a premature explosion. (273)
In August 2015, two rockets were launched towards the Paghman residence of Abdul Rab Rassoul Sayyaf, head of the Dawlat-e Islamia Party and well-known former jihadi commander. No one was hurt in this attack. (274) Paghman was also included in the Afghanistan Public Policy Research Organisation (APPRO) monitoring study on the impact of the security transition for women. Inhabitants of this district said in December 2014 that security had improved over time, in part due to closer collaboration between the community and ANP. There had been a number of reports of roadside bombs or suspected bombs by community members to the security authorities. However, the improvement was limited to Paghman district during the daytime. Women remained fearful of being outside the home during the dark because of incidents of rape and robberies in September 2014 and heightened insurgent activity in Kabul. The community was generally satisfied with ANP and regarded security personnel as helpful and respectful towards women. Despite the concerns about heightened insurgent activity in Kabul City, women in Paghman remain comfortable in carrying out their daily chores outside the home, with many seeing the security situation as having improved significantly compared to the previous reporting period. (275)
In August 2015 ANSF launched a major cleaning operation in Surobi, deploying more than 2,000 ANSF personnel. (276) This operation was part of a wider military operation called ‘Iron Fist’ against insurgent safe heavens in the area Azra (Logar), Surobi (Kabul), Hesarak, Shirzad and Khogayani (Nangarhar). (277) The operation also aimed at breaking up logistical insurgent supply routes from Pakistan’s Waziristan to the capital Kabul. (278) Government officials claimed no civilian casualties were inflicted in Surobi during this month-long operation. (279)
Displacement
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR, in this reporting period regularly mentions IDPs fleeing violence in Kapisa’s restive southern districts into Surobi and, to a lesser extent, also into the district of Bagrami. (280) In July 2015, UNHCR registered 489 families or 2886 individuals displaced by the fighting in Southern Nangarahar between IS and the Taliban towards Kabul city and Bagrami district. Others came from Kapisa, Kunduz, Helmand, Kunar, Laghman and Logar provinces. (281)
Apart from receiving IDP communities, Surobi also produced IDPs in this reporting period going to Parwan. (282)
(268) Ruttig T., The Second Fall of Musa Qala: How the Taleban are expanding territorial control, 3 September 2015.
(269) Pajhwok Afghan News, 22 hurt in blast, girl killed on spying charges, 13 October 2014.
(270) Khaama Press, Explosion in Kabul leaves 6 people dead, 2 others wounded, 6 April 2015.
(271) Pajhwok Afghan News, 1 police dead, 3 hurt in Kabul suicide attack, 18 December 2014.
(272) Pajhwok Afghan News, Influential ex-jihadi leader killed in Kabul, 28 May 2015.
(273) Khaama Press, Suicide blast in Kabul leaves a child wounded, 11 July 2015.
(274) Pajhwok Afghan News, Rocket lands close to Sayyaf home in Paghman; no casualties, 28 August 2015.
(275) APPRO, Afghanistan: Monitoring Women’s Security in Transition, January 2015, p. 35.
(276) Tolonews, Afghan forces launch joint operation in Kabul’s Sorobi district, 6 August 2015.
(277) Pajhwok Afghan News, 17 Sarobi villages cleared of militants: officials, 6 August 2015.
(278) Pajhwok Afghan News, Taliban planned inroads in Kabul, Hesarak, 27 August 2015.
(279) Pajhwok Afghan News, Afghan local police strength being increased in Nangarhar, 30 August 2015.
(280) UNHCR, Conflict-induced Internal Displacement Monthly Update, May 2015; UNHCR, Conflict-induced Internal Displacement Monthly Update, June 2015.
(281) UNHCR, Conflict-induced Internal Displacement Monthly Update, July 2015.
(282) UNHCR, Conflict-induced Internal Displacement Monthly Update, January 2015; UNHCR, Conflict-induced Internal Displacement Monthly Update, March 2015.
Actors in the conflict
The security deterioration in the south-eastern rural belt led to the creation of the ALP, besides the regular ANSF components. According to the US Department of Defense in 2013, ALP is active in Paghman, Surobi, Musayi, Chahar Asayab, Kabul and Deh Sabz. (283) A source in Kabul said an ALP staff of 475 men will soon be reduced to 350, deployed in three districts – Surobi (150), Musayi and Paghman (100 each). (284) According to Foschini, in July 2015: (285)
security observers report declining numbers of ANSF troops and decreased effectiveness of the ANSF operations in Sarobi, due to a lack of resources and poor coordination. ALP units man a handful of posts besides the district centre bazaar, but are too small (four to five, at most ten, local policemen) to withstand attacks by the insurgents. (286)
[…] the government’s sway over the whole of Sarobi had grown weaker in recent years. Not only is all of upper Uzbin completely beyond the control of the ANSF; other areas in the districts do not fare much better. Parts of Tezin area see no real government presence or activity, while in the deserted slopes near Tang-e Abrisham, locals who venture to hunt or gather brushwood are told to stay out by Taliban, saying this is their hunting ground. To the south of the district, in the Lataband area where the old Kabul-Jalalabad road passes through, government control shrinks to just a few kilometres from the district centre. Beyond, the no man’s land is a prime insurgent crossing area connecting Sarobi to Hesarak district and the war-ridden Spin Ghar region bordering Pakistan.
Insurgents active in the province include the Taliban, Haqqani Network and Hezb-e Islami. (287) According to analyst Foschini, fighters from both Hezb-e Islami (Hekmatyar) and the Taliban were consistently present in Surobi, although Hezb-e Islami were traditionally stronger in Surobi. (288) The Taliban shadow governor for Kabul is Hafiz Mohibullah, affiliated to the Taliban’s Quetta Shura. (289) His deputy is mufti Abdul Rahman Sahib and in charge of the Kabul-Jalalabad Highway is mawlawi Abdullah. (290)
In their military operation in Surobi in August 2015, ANSF claimed to have killed several foreign insurgent fighters, including Chechens and Arabs. (291)
Hazara politician Mohammad Mohaqiq stated in July 2015 that IS was recruiting fighters in ‘the outskirts of Kabul province’ without going into detail on how and where. (292)
(283) US Department of Defense, Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, November 2013, p. 70.
(284) International organisation, e-mail, 15 September 2015.
(285) Foschini F., Classics of Conflict (2): Reviewing some of Afghanistan’s most notorious hotspots, 9 July 2015.
(286) Foschini F., Classics of Conflict (2): Reviewing some of Afghanistan’s most notorious hotspots, 9 July 2015.
(287) Münch, P. and Ruttig, T., ‘Between Negotiations and Ongoing Resistance. The Situation of the Afghan Insurgency’, 2014, pp. 25-41.
(288) Foschini F., Classics of Conflict (2): Reviewing some of Afghanistan’s most notorious hotspots, 9 July 2015.
(289) UN Security Council, Letter dated 18 August 2015 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1988 (2011) addressed to the President of the Security Council, 26 August 2015, p. 20; Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Pledges of allegiance to the new Amir take place throughout Afghanistan, 9 August 2015.
(290) Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Pledges of allegiance to the new Amir take place throughout Afghanistan, 9 August 2015.
(291) Tolonews, Afghan forces launch joint operation in Kabul’s Sorobi district, 6 August 2015.
(292) Khaama Press, ISIS recruiting fighters in the outskirts of Kabul: Mohaqiq, 21 July 2015.