The firearm-related violence in Sweden: The case of Malmö. A Systematic Literature Review from a non-Swedish perspective.

THE FIREARM-RELATED

VIOLENCE IN SWEDEN: THE

CASE OF MALMÖ

A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW FROM

A NON-SWEDISH PERSPECTIVE

GUILLAUME ROSEBAN

THE FIREARM-RELATED

VIOLENCE IN SWEDEN: THE

CASE OF MALMÖ

A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW FROM

A NON-SWEDISH PERSPECTIVE

GUILLAUME ROSEBAN

Roseban, G. The firearm-related violence in Sweden: the case of Malmö. A Systematic Literature Review from a non-Swedish perspective. Degree project in Criminology 30 Credits. Malmö University: Faculty of Health and Society, Department of Criminology, 2020.

The increase of firearm-related violence has plagued Sweden, and specifically Malmö, for thirty years. This Systematic Literature Review gathered ten articles from different fields in order to discern the causes behind such an increase, the mechanisms of gun violence in a Swedish settings and the implications for Malmö on a criminological level. Results showed that a combination of factors such as the illegal importation of illicit firearms and the expansion of organized criminal groups in vulnerable territories were responsible for a shift of pattern in homicide. This change is preventing the police from properly solving homicide cases and the criminal justice system from prosecuting them. All in all, firearm violence is strongly related to gang activities in the three largest Swedish cities and the reason why Malmö is the most affected may be explained by the large number of

clustered near-repeat shootings spread over three neighborhoods considered vulnerable. Actions have been taken though still require some analysis.

Keywords: Firearm violence, gangs, Malmö, near-repeat pattern, neighborhoods, Sweden, Systematic Literature Review.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION – p.3

- Terminology – p.3

METHOD – p.4

- The Systematic Literature Review – p.4

- The search string – p.4

- Inclusion and exclusion criteria – p.4

- The SLR process – p. 5

RESULTS – p.7

- The shift in homicide pattern – p.7

- Victims and perpetrators – p.9

- The geographical factors – p. 10

DISCUSSION – p.10

- Firearms registration and trafficking – p.11

- Methods and characteristics of criminal milieus – p.12

- The suitable settings of vulnerable neighborhoods – p.13

CONCLUSION – p.14

- Methodological and ethical considerations – p.15

INTRODUCTION

Violent crimes have been responsible for more than 400,000 deaths in the world each year, not counting the casualties of war, with 41% of these fatalities

attributed to firearm-related violence (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes 2013). The same rate is attributed to firearm-related homicides in Sweden in 2019, which is a little higher than 2018 (40%) (National Council for Crime Prevention, https://www.bra.se/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statistics/murder-and- manslaughter.html). The rates differ from one continent to another, with 13% of accounted homicides in Europe charged on firearms, to 66% in Americas (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes 2013; Sturup et al. 2017).

Sweden has seen its general rate of lethal violence decrease over the past decades. A diminution attributed to reductions in child homicides, homicides against women, offenders with psychosis, alcohol-related homicides and substance- abusing marginalized offenders (Estrada et al. 2012; Sturup et al. 2017). However, the number of homicides committed with the use of firearms in Sweden has been seriously increasing. Since the variable has been added to the National Council for Crime Prevention, in 2011, the amount of murder, manslaughter and assault involving firearms has risen from 17 to 45 (National Council for Crime

Prevention, https://www.bra.se/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statistics/murder- and-manslaughter.html). Malmö has underwent a great deal of firearm-related violence, with dramatic homicides happening, making her the most dangerous city in Sweden giving her the nickname ‘Sveriges Chicago’ (Sweden’s Chicago). However, being the third biggest city in the country, it is legitimate to wonder how such high rates of firearm-related violence can affect it. Thus:

To which extent does firearm-related violence in Sweden impact Malmö? In order to answer this question a Systematic Literature Review has been conducted and the results are discussed below.

Terminology

Several articles are using specific terminologies, proper to study crime. In order to make it the clearest possible such terms are defined below, in alphabetical order: Clearance rates: The Clearance Rate (CR) is the number of crimes for which an offender has been prosecuted, divided by the total number of recorded crimes. Homicide Typology: In this study, Homicide Typology (HT) is a combination of the motive and the relationship between the offender and the victim.

Modus Operandi: The Modus Operandi (MO), roughly translated as ‘mode of operation’, is the method used by the offender to achieve his or her crime. It can also refer to the weapon used in a certain type of crime (e.g. homicides or accidents).

Vulnerable neighborhoods: Vulnerable is the contemporary Swedish term to define disadvantaged areas considered at risk. The National Council for Crime Prevention describes them as neighborhoods with high unemployment, high rate of social welfare, low school grades and the presence of criminal networks impacting it.

METHOD

The Systematic Literature Review

In order to best address the research question, the SLR methodology presented in O’Brien and Mc Guckin’s work (2019) has been used. Previous Systematic Literature Reviews (SLR) has been written on the worrying matter of increasing firearm-related violence in Sweden (Khoshnood 2017), though none has been specifically conducted on the case of Malmö yet. The danger that represents the rise of gang and gun-related violence in its streets during the past decades

revealed the growth of a criminal microcosm in the city thus making it relevant to assess all the work made on the third biggest Swedish city to date. However, if the impact of firearm violence is obviously a criminal matter, it does overlap several disciplines, from Clinical Medicine to Law. So that the SLR can provide

substantial and relevant results, it has been conducted on several databases and hand-searching as well as citation-searches were run to provide complementary data. It is important to precise that publication and language bias have to be minimize through any means available. Only peer-reviewed articles have been selected to feature in the search and thus diminish the risks of publication bias. However, the SLR has been conducted exclusively in English, thus making it particularly vulnerable to language bias.

The search string

Onwards, it was necessary to develop an accurate search string so that the most relevant works done on the city of Malmö could be selected. After selecting the different terms, checking for synonyms and spellings, four databases were

selected: ProQuest Criminology Collection, Sage Knowledge, JSTOR and Google Scholar (Libsearch was also used for one search test but the results were

numerous and seldom relevant). A first test search with the following terms was conducted on ProQuest for articles dating from January the 1st 2000 to present days (Table 1):

Table 1. Test String Search

Combined Search String (test)

(firearm* OR gun* OR violence OR rise OR rising OR increase OR increasing OR grow* OR Malmö OR cause* OR influence* OR influencing OR affect* OR effect* OR factor OR determinant) AND Malmö

Afterwards the search string was refined by separating, removing, adding and compiling some terms. The final search string used was the following one (Table 2):

Table 2. Final Search String

Combined Search String (final)

(firearm* OR gun* OR shoot* OR violence*) AND (cause* OR affect* OR effect* OR impact*) AND (factor*) AND (Malmö)

Inclusion and exclusion criteria

As specified before, all articles gathered in this SLR have to be written in English in order for a non-Swede to understand them. The searches were conducted on the period from January the 1st 1990 to present days. The change of timeline from 2000 to 1990 is explained by police reports claiming that most of the illegal firearms in Sweden have been smuggled from the Balkans since the dissolution of

ex-Yugoslavia (Polisen 2017; Sturup et al. 2017; Khoshnood 2019). The main question aiming at Malmö in particular, it is critical for a relevant research to feature articles exclusively mentioning the city. However, articles in English focusing on firearm-violence and Malmö are uncommon, if not rare. Thus the inclusion criterion on location has been expanded to articles mentioning Malmö (e.g. articles comparing the three biggest Swedish cities: Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö) (Sturup et al. 2017; Sturup et al. 2018). It is worth mentioning that some articles selected for review referred to a “metropolitan city” or a “specific city in Sweden” without naming it, possibly biasing the SLR, but with findings relevant to the question at hand (Khoshnood & Fritz 2017; Khoshnood et al. 2017). Although mainly focusing on the causes of the firearm-violence increase, some articles offered little results as of the origins of such an alarming growth. Yet they provided some information on the consequences of such phenomenon considered appropriate for this paper (Granath et al. 2018; Junuzovic et al. 2019) with one of the article mentioning shootings as well as explosives use (Sturup et al. 2019).

The details of inclusion and exclusion criteria are summarized in the following table (Table 3).

Table 3. Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria

Criteria Inclusion Criteria Exclusion Criteria Criterion 1 Articles must be written and

published in English

Any articles not written in English

Criterion 2 Articles must have been

published between the 1st of January 1990 and May 2020

Any articles outside the dates 1990-2020

Criterion 3 Articles must feature Malmö,

or at least Sweden

Any articles that do not mention neither Malmö nor Sweden

Criterion 4 Article must cover the causes

and/or consequences of firearm and/or explosive-related

violence

Any articles that do not mention firearm or explosive use

The SLR process

The final search string were entered in the four databases, resulting in a

substantial total amount of articles as a result (n = 445). No duplicates were found, maybe due to the difference of sources. It is important to precise that the Google Scholar database offered a generous quantity of articles. However, the gathering of data was coming to an end and more material would have mean less time to go through it, thus only the 20 first pages of results were investigated through (n = 200). A significant number of articles did not have a match sensible enough to figure in the SLR, mostly because of some terms similarities with other topics studied in Criminology or other discipline (e.g. violence as in Intimate Partner Violence or factor as in risk factor, notably used in Clinical Medicine). After excluding articles with no link to the matter at hand, the remaining 33 were analyzed. From those, 23 were excluded mainly for relevance issue with the topic (e.g. articles focused on criminality in Malmö but not firearm-related). Once done going through different studies, some citation-searches and hand-searches were made in order to access articles that did not figure in the results or were

unavailable otherwise, sometimes involving to contact the author directly. Eventually, 10 articles got selected to be studied in this SLR as presented in the flow diagram (Figure 1).

PRISMA 2009 Flow Diagram

Figure 1. PRISMA flow diagram over study selection and inclusion

Records excluded (n = 417) Inc lu ded Studies included in qualitative synthesis (n = 10) Elig ibil ity Records screened (n = 450) Screen ing

Records after duplicates removed (n = 450)

Identification

Records identified through database searching

(n = 445)

Additional records identified through other sources

(n = 5)

Full-text articles assessed for eligibility

(n = 33)

Full-text articles excluded, with reasons

RESULTS

The SLR has been conducted in order to gather and compile all the relevant data on firearm-related violence in Malmö. Originally oriented towards its causes, the searches revealed some studies more focused on the consequences of such a phenomenon and what professionals can learn from it. Thus articles treating the reasons behind a rise in firearm-related violence are compiled with researches discussing outcomes of dangerous criminal acts. Each chosen article refers to firearms, directly or indirectly, though from different but complementary fields of study. On the ten researches selected for review the major amount of them has a criminological perspective with determined quantitative data analysis (Sturup et al. 2017; Granath et al. 2018; Sturup et al. 2018; Khoshnood 2019; Sturup et al. 2019), two feature medical data and are classified as Clinical Medicine

(Khoshnood et al. 2017; Junuzovic et al. 2019), one is a focus on Criminology and Behavioral Science (Khoshnood& Fritz 2017), one of them is a short

communication on Criminology and Criminalistics (Khoshnood 2017), and one is a Systematic Literature Review on the increase of firearm-related violence in Sweden (Khoshnood 2018). Combined together, the different articles offer a contemporary angle on distinct but somewhat linked subjects: a shift in homicide pattern in Sweden, considerations on the victims and perpetrators of homicides and attempted homicides, and the influence of geographical factors in the worrying gun violence circumstances.

The shift in homicide pattern

Granath & Sturup (2018) studied the clearance rates in homicides in Sweden between 1990 and 2013. Their results revealed a slight decrease in the overall homicide clearance rates (oscillating between 74% and 90% during the 23 years period). They closely observed that most homicides are perpetrated with non- firearms weapons (n (1990-2013) = 1717) and have had increasing clearance rates in the past two decades (from 87% in 1990-1997 to 91% in 2006-2013). However, even if the number of firearm homicides is still lower (n (1990-2013) = 444), their clearance rates are decreasing at a troubling pace (from 78% in 1990-1997 to 59% in 2006-2013). Such changes in the homicidal clearance rates are connected with changes in the homicide pattern, with an increase in firearm-perpetrated crimes while there is a general decrease in non-firearm-perpetrated homicides.

The Systematic Literature Review conducted by Khoshnood (2018) brings together different researches (in Swedish and English) from distinct but

complementary fields: Medicine (n = 9) and Forensics and Criminology (n = 16). Results from this work are numerous and challenging. The increase of firearm- related violence apparently started in the 1990s, when Yugoslavia fell and several weapons were illegally smuggled in Sweden, coinciding with an augmentation of criminal groups in urban areas that led to an overall increase of firearm-related violence in the country. Though it is presented that, in Sweden, knife/sharp

weapons are more frequently used in homicides and attempted homicides cases, in Skåne, and more precisely Malmö, firearms are more often used as Modus

Operandi. If it is commonly admitted that the most consistent Homicide Typology is between intimate partners or acquaintances, it changes when compared with firearm-use, aligning with gang-related crime methods. It is as well worth mentioning that more than the majority of articles (n = 18) were published between 2015 and 2017, revealing how the increase of firearm-related violence was a fairly new phenomenon for the academics to study.

Table 4. Summarized main findings per studies

Author (year) Main findings

Khoshnood (2017) Sweden is undergoing a fairly new and dangerous rise in firearm-related violence revealing some flaws in the Swedish Criminal Justice system.

Khoshnood & Fritz M V (2017)

There are two relevant profiles in homicides: Profile A coincide with younger males involved in gang and firearm-related homicides; Profile B conforms to homicides committed by older males suffering from mental health issues, on a partner or friend, with a sharp object.

Khoshnood et al. (2017)

Homicides are more commonly committed with sharp weapons but firearm-related homicides are more lethal. More firearms are used as Modus Operandi as it is easier to acquire them illegally due to an increase in gang-related crimes.

Sturup et al. (2017) Firearm-related violence has higher rates in Malmö compared to Stockholm and Gothenburg. The near- repeat principles demonstrates a rise in organized crime activities and increase of shootings.

Granath et al. (2018) There has been a general decrease in homicides clearance rates due to a change of pattern in firearm-related cases.

Khoshnood (2018) There is an increase in firearm-related violence by organized crime in Sweden as well as firearm use by police. Firearm as Modus Operandi is more common than sharp weapons in Skåne. The combination of high numbers of illegal firearms and gangs is the central cause of increased shootings.

Sturup et al. (2018) There is an increase of firearm-related violence among young Swedish males.

Junuzovic et al. (2019)

Suicide is the first cause of death by legal firearm while illegal firearms are more used in homicide cases. Khoshnood (2019) Skåne and by extension Malmö are strongly affected by

firearm-related violence. Police operations work in decreasing homicides, yet more officers are needed and changes in judicial system are required.

Sturup et al. (2019) There is an increase in use of hand-grenades correlated with the shifting pattern of urban violence,

hypothetically linked to retaliation and cycle of violence that characterize gangs’ methods.

Sturup, Rostami, Mondani, Gerell, Sarnecki & Edling (2018) conducted a national survey on the rise of firearm-related violence among Swedish males, divided in two age samples: between 15-29 years old, and above 30, between 1996 and 2015. The results show an abrupt 5 times increase of firearm-related violence per

100,000 inhabitants amidst younger males, both lethal (from 0.3 in 1996 to 1.5 in 2015) and non-lethal (0.8 in 1996 to 3.7 in 2015). In the 1990s, men aged between 15 and 29 were shot as much as men aged over 30. In 2015 the rate of young men shot to death grew four times the rate of older men, demonstrating a dangerous increase in firearm-related violence and especially homicides among younger generations of Swedes.

Khoshnood (2019) directed a quantitative research by combining statistics from official Swedish institutions: the Swedish Police, the National Council for Crime Prevention and the National Board for Health and Welfare, for the years 2016- 2017. Following previous results on the matter, the increase of firearm-related violence didn’t cease, with a rate of 28% firearm use in homicide cases in 2016 raising to 35% in 2017. The results were then compared with other Nordic

countries (Denmark, Norway and Finland), showing that Sweden presents unusual and worrying high numbers of victims of deadly violence and firearm homicides compared to its neighbors. When converted on a ration for 100,000 inhabitants during the studied period of 2011-2017, Finland has the highest rates of deadly violence (12.7), followed by Sweden (6.7). However Sweden has the highest rates of firearm-related homicides (2.0), corresponding with the ongoing rise of gun violence in its cities.

Victims and perpetrators

In a short communication, Khoshnood (2017) theorizes that the increase of firearm-related violence is due to two connected factors: an expansion of gangs in urban areas with the criminal activities associated to it, and an easy access to illegal firearms for the aforementioned criminal groups. This combination affects greatly the urban life of the three biggest cities in Sweden. Malmö is particularly victim of such violence when, in 2017, four young people were shot at in a twelve days period. However, a decrease in homicides was noted in 2011-2012 when the Malmö Police Department and the Swedish National Police conjointly set up the Operation Alfred and Selma, which granted positive results.

Khoshnood and Fritz (2017) conducted a study on 23 violent offenders on 19 cases (multiple offenders in three cases) in a city in Sweden. The Modus Operandi varies with an inclination for knives and sharp weapons (n = 10), followed by firearms (n = 7). A K-mean cluster analysis allowed them to define two sets of offender characteristics: a Profile A (n = 13) defined by young males, between 15- 33 years old, with low education, no work, previous convictions, and the use of firearm in a public crime scene on an intoxicated victim; and Profile B (n = 10) defined by older males, between 37-59 years old, with a better education than Profile A, living on disability pension, with addiction problems, and the use of sharp weapons in a private crime scene on a non-intoxicated victim who has a relationship with the offender. Both profiles are single males. A significant difference is that Profile A had no previous psychiatric diagnosis compared to Profile B.

Junuzovic, Rietz, Jakobsson, Midlöv & Eriksson (2019) studied lethal firearm suicides and homicides in Sweden for the period 2012-2013, as well as accidental and undetermined manner of deaths between 1987 and 2013. Sweden is a country of hunters and it is not uncommon for some citizens to own a rifle. The study results showed that the number of firearm owners is positively correlated with the total amount of suicides and the number of legal firearm use during the studied period. On the total number of suicide (n = 213), 79% were committed with legal firearms, and from those 86% were from long-barreled firearms. On the other hand, homicides (n = 39) were seldom committed by use of legal firearm (n = 6; 15%) compared to illegal firearms (n = 16; 41%). Also, the use of short-barreled firearms is predominant in illegal firearm use, compared to long-barreled

In comparison with their previous results on offenders, Khoshnood, Fritz & Ekelund (2017) also worked on the victims of these homicides and attempted homicides (n = 19). It resulted that knives and sharp weapons are the most common Modus Operandi used in a majority of cases (n = 10) whereas firearms are less common (n = 7). However, victims survive knife/sharp weapon attacks more often (n = 4) than gunshot wounds caused by firearms (n = 1), making the latter more lethal. The findings also advocate the general acceptation that most common Homicidal Typology in Sweden is intimate partner homicides, followed by homicides of friends or acquaintances, and then gang-related violence. The first two relying generally on knife/sharp weapons whereas the latter mostly relates on firearms.

The geographical factors

Sturup, Rostami, Gerell & Sandholm (2017) conducted a quantitative analysis to test the near-repeat principle in shootings in the three largest Swedish cities. The near-repeat principle is the assumption that after the completion of a crime, another similar criminal act will be conducted nearby, in a short time period. The study demonstrated that Malmö had a higher shooting rate per 100,000

inhabitants (homicides = 1.0, body injury = 6.5) than Stockholm (homicides = 0.42, body injury = 1.14) or Gothenburg (homicides = 0.66, body injury = 2.6). The result showed that Malmö has a strong near-repeat pattern, with high risks of repeated shootings within 500m and in the 4-6 days from a previous crime, between 100m and 200m in the following two weeks, and within 100m in the next 6 weeks. It is also worth noticing that there’s been more shootings in Malmö (n = 304) than in Stockholm municipality (n = 197) between 2011 and 2015.

Pursuing their work on near-repeat principle, Sturup, Gerell & Rostami (2019) explore the connection between an increase of hand grenades use and the near- repeat shootings happening in Sweden. In order to do so they conducted a near- repeat analysis on shootings (n = 1048) and hand grenades detonations (n = 55) that happened in the cities of Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö between 2011 and 2016. Their results indicated a strong increase of hand grenade use in the studied period, with a total of 77 registered explosion. 32% of them (n = 25) were detonated in Malmö, where the augmentation of this new type of urban violence started earlier than the other cities. The use of hand grenades differs, of the 77 explosions, 19 (28%) were aimed at persons and 45 (66%) were targeted at places. The solid results obtained for near-repeat shootings were not strengthen by adding the hand grenade cases, showing a different spatiotemporal pattern. However, the Modus Operandi of hand grenade uses matches the cycle of retaliatory violence adopted by gangs in urban settings.

DISCUSSION

The Systematic Literature Review conducted in this paper addresses the ongoing phenomenon of increasing firearm-related violence in Malmö by compiling previous researches made on the issue, in order to better understand its causes and the consequences for the city. All the studies gathered for this work were

published between 2017 and 2019, supporting Khoshnood’s (2018) assertion that the rise of gun violence has been a fairly recent phenomenon for scholars from different fields to study. It is though legitimate that the increase of firearm-related violence raises concerns in scientific spheres, urging for more results to stem the

matter. About what caused and now aggravates the increase of firearm-related violence in Malmö, the answer does not reside in one essential feature but in a combination of several factors ranging from the augmentation of illegal firearms trafficked, to the activities of criminal organizations mostly relying on the use of such weapons and adequate settings for such enterprises characterized by

vulnerable neighborhoods.

Firearms registration and trafficking

In the case of increasing gun violence, it would be logical to direct the search towards a potential growth in the number of firearms. Sweden has the

international reputation of being a democratic and free country with a very restrictive firearm legislation (Khoshnood 2017; Granath et al. 2018; Khoshnood 2018; Khoshnood 2019). At the beginning of the past decade, about 15% of the Swedish population legally owned a firearm (Granath 2011; Sturup et al. 2018). Hunting being a common activity in Sweden, most of those firearms are rifles, whereas licenses for handguns are usually delivered for the purpose of shooting range use (Khoshnood 2017). The number of suicides in Sweden is positively correlated with the number of registered owners of legal firearm among civilians, the non-civil firearm license for police or military being monitored through a distinct segment of the firearm legislation. The study conducted on 291 firearm deaths in Sweden demonstrates that the use of legal firearms in the studied

manner of deaths (suicides, homicides and accidents) predominantly encompasses long-barreled firearms while the use of illegal firearms principally includes short- barreled firearms. However the study displays no information whatsoever on the origin of such illegal weapons, though it also exhibits results proving that long- barreled firearms are largely more often used in suicide cases and are responsible for more accidental deaths, whereas short-barreled firearms are more frequently used in homicide cases (Junuzovic et al. 2019). It is important to acknowledge that, in Sweden, the amount of license for legal firearms has been diminishing since the 1990s whereas the number of reported use of illegal firearms,

particularly handguns, has been escalating (National Council for Crime Prevention 2015a; Granath et al. 2018).

There are findings from the Swedish National Police (Polisen 2013) and the Swedish Customs (Rikspolisstyrelsen, Tullverket2014) about an increase of “illegal weapons including firearms and grenades [which] are smuggled into Sweden primary from countries in the West Balkans” (Khoshnood 2017, p.2). After the fall of the Yugoslavian republic in 1992 provoking a war in the region, a substantial amount of firearms, impossible to evaluate due to its illicit nature, were illegally exported to Sweden. An event that coincides with a growth in organized crime in the Scandinavian country and some related conflicts, especially the Great Nordic Biker War that lasted from 1994 to 1997, which participated to the implementation of Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs (OMG) that quickly became a crucial concern for Sweden crime policy (Sturup et al. 2017).Indeed, in the 2000s a change in the criminal organizations structure

happened with the creation of dissident OMG factions, then later several relatively organized crime groups appeared which divided the Swedish organized crime spectrum between OMGs, street gangs and territorial-based criminal groups (Sturup et al. 2017; Khoshnood 2018).

Nowadays, gangs have deeper roots in the Swedish society and it is commonly admitted in a scientific as well as governmental level, that resorting to illegal- firearm-related violence is a trademark of organized crime groups (Khoshnood 2017; Khoshnood & Fritz 2017; Khoshnood et al. 2017; Sturup et al. 2017; Granath et al. 2018; Khoshnood 2018; Sturup et al. 2018; Khoshnood 2019; Sturup et al. 2019).Indeed, the Modus Operandi of gangs relying on firearms to publicly deal with competition by sending a message or eliminating concurrence is recognizable and indicate an important change in the homicide pattern

(Khoshnood & Fritz 2017). Sturup et al. (2017) stipulate that “gang shootings are often highly precise rather than impulsive” (Sturup et al. 2017, p.15), a statement supported by the evidence that in gang-related violence, shootings are used to kill by aiming at the head, as well as threaten or warn by targeting the extremities (Khoshnood & Fritz 2017). In the present days, even if the majority of homicides are still committed by intimate partners with knife/sharp weapons (Khoshnood 2017; Khoshnood& Fritz 2017; Khoshnood et al. 2017), those are decreasing (Sturup et al. 2018). Whereas the number of homicides committed by young males with firearm in the public space is increasing at an alarming rate (Khoshnood & Fritz 2017; Khoshnood et al. 2017).

As a matter of facts, the change in characteristics of homicides that occurred in Sweden due to an increase of gang-violence and criminal groups’ access to illegal firearms (Khoshnood 2017) is discernible at several levels (Khoshnood & Fritz 2017; Sturup et al. 2018; Khoshnood 2018). Based on the study of 23 homicide offenders from an unnamed Swedish city, Khoshnood & Fritz (2017) established two profiles, distinctive though they share the same gender and relationship status. Profile B corresponds to offenders between 37 and 59 years old, using a

knife/sharp weapons on intimate partner or friend in a private setting, which conforms to the most common Homicide Typology of domestic violence. While Profile A displays characteristics found in gang-related homicides, that is an offender aged between 15 and 33 years old, using a firearm in a public area on an intoxicated victim (Khoshnood & Fritz 2017). Additionally, a research, conducted on the increase of gun violence among males in Sweden, supports the shift in homicide pattern by demonstrating an increase of firearm use amid younger men, correctly matching the attributes of Profile A (Khoshnood & Fritz 2017; Sturup et al. 2018). In the past 20 years, the relative risk for men below 30 to become victims of firearm-related violence has disturbingly increased as they have been shot to death about four times more than men above 30, while the rates were similar for both age groups in the 1990s (Sturup et al. 2018). A tragic observation linked directly to organized crime activities, since “participants in these criminal gangs and networks are young individuals who are promptly replaced by others whenever they get killed” (Khoshnood 2019, p.6).

As demonstrated, the use of illegal firearms in gang-related violence has caused a shift in the homicide pattern (Granath et al. 2018). On a study about homicides clearance rates in Sweden, Granath et al. (2018) assert that a change of pattern in homicides is generally connected to a decrease in clearance rates. It is the case when victims are males, whereas clearance rates for female victims have increased. Four factors responsible for the decrease in male homicide clearance rates have been identified. First, a Modus Operandi involving firearms, illegal guns being complicated to track down, their use makes it difficult to clear crimes committed by those (Granath et al. 2018; Sturup et al. 2018). Additionally the absence of eyewitnesses also strongly impacts the case, although even if some

could testify, there has been a certain disinclination to give information to the police (Sturup et al. 2017; Granath et al. 2018). Also, if the victim is not

intoxicated with alcohol will influence the clearance rates as in the past decades the number of alcohol-related homicides have decreased (National Council for Crime Prevention 2015a; Granath et al. 2018). Finally, if the victim has

committed previous criminal offenses will diminish the clearance rates, supporting the expectation that gang-related homicides are more complicated to solve

(Granath et al. 2018). Another interesting point raised by Granath et al. (2018) is the intricacy of hard-to-solve cases, characterized by male victims shot to death in a public area. There is an increase of such homicides that corroborates the change of pattern in homicides and the augmentation of young men using firearms in gang-related criminal activities (Khoshnood & Fritz 2017; Granath et al. 2018; Sturup et al. 2018).

The suitable settings of vulnerable neighborhoods

Of all the researches gathered for this SLR, only half (n = 5) features Malmö while the rest of the studies do not mention it. It is explainable by the facts that firearm-related violence is not homogenous throughout the country, as it is mainly focused on its three largest city (Khoshnood 2017; Sturup et al. 2017; Khoshnood 2018; Sturup et al. 2019). However it is relevant to look at the criminal

phenomenon through a geographical perspective as, in the specific case of Skåne region where Malmö is, homicides are more often committed by firearms

(Khoshnood 2018). Sturup et al. (2017) conducted a near-repeat analysis in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö in order to evaluate when and where

shootings happened correlated to previous occurrence of firearm-related violence. The National Council for Crime Prevention (2015a; 2015b) reports that the use of firearms in homicide cases is connected to criminal organizations in urban

violence settings, and the increase of firearm-related violence since 2006 can be linked to the most vulnerable neighborhoods in the cities (Sturup et al. 2017). Indeed, Malmö is the smallest of the three compared cities but has the strongest and clearest clustered pattern of near-repeat shootings in 23 different areas, which combined overlap three different neighborhood considered at risk: Fosie,

Rosengård and Södra Innerstaden (Sturup et al. 2017). Those neighborhoods share the urban space with criminally active groups or gangs. Such proximity between disadvantaged areas and dangerous network has been related to an increase of violence, and particularly firearm-related violence, in the city (National Council for Crime Prevention 2012; Sturup et al. 2017).

The near-repeat principle exemplifies the way criminal organizations work. Relying on illegal markets or trade in illicit goods such as firearms or drug, gang members will seldom go to the police when their operations get jeopardized by competitive groups, or if anyone in their branch is hurt or killed. In such situation, organized crime group will seek revenge through retaliation (Sturup et al. 2017; Sturup et al. 2019). The shifting in homicide pattern caused by the expansion of gangs using firearm-related violence to maintain their grip on territories has taken a more aggressive turn during the past decades with an alarming increase in hand grenades detonations (Sturup et al. 2019). It is relevant to precise that hand grenades are considered military weapons and, as such, do not feature in Sweden firearm legislation but is regulated by the Flammable and Explosives Act. Also military explosives are essentially available through trafficking, like illegal firearms, a black market essentially relied on in the criminal milieus. A near- repeat analysis conducted on the three biggest Swedish cities aimed to link the use

of such device to firearm-related violence in order to establish a correlation between shootings and explosive violence. The results showed a strong spatiotemporal pattern for gun violence, however adding hand grenades

explosions did not strengthened the outcomes, meaning that the use of explosives do not share the same spatiotemporal pattern as firearm-related violence. That said, the hypothesis raised in the study coincides with the retaliation system, implying that each action conducted towards a gang will generate a more

devastating reaction which will lead to a circle of violence, highly present in MO of criminal groups (Sturup et al. 2019). The use of explosives, like firearms, can both be interpreted differently according to the setting. A hand grenade can be detonated with the intention of killing as well as in order to warn, threat or destabilize competition (e.g. buildings or businesses), the same way firearms are used by gangs (Khoshnood & Fritz 2017; Sturup et al. 2017; Sturup et al. 2019).

CONCLUSION

It is undeniable that firearm-related violence dangerously increased in Sweden, and therefore in Malmö as well. According to reports from the Swedish National Police and the National Council for Crime Prevention, a combination of factors initiated the crisis. About firearm availability, the strict firearm legislation in Sweden controls the civil-license for gun availability to the public. Legal weapons more often features in cases of suicides or accidents. Whereas a substantial

amount of illegal weapons has been smuggled in Sweden from ex-Yugoslavian countries since the 1990s. This phenomenon concurring with the proliferation of more or less organized criminal groups eventually led to a deadly spread of

firearm-related violence throughout the country. General factors attributable to the rise of gun violence in the three largest Swedish cities are: the availability of illegal firearms and the presence of organized criminal groups whose operations take place in the most vulnerable neighborhoods of urban areas. Consequences can be observed from high rates of gang-related violence, such as an increasing amount of non-lethal gun violence as well as firearm homicides committed by young men against young men in public areas, building up a feeling of fear among the population. The change of homicide pattern also caused an important decrease in homicide clearance rates, demonstrating a difficulty for law enforcement to handle the situation.

As of Malmö, those factors all apply albeit there is an important difference with the other cities on a geographical level. The great cluster of 23 areas considered at risk spread over three vulnerable neighborhoods shows how widely and deep are the criminal gangs’ grips in certain parts of the city. Even if only two studies support this assumption, the rates of near-repeat shootings compared to

Gothenburg and Stockholm demonstrates the need for an appropriate response to be addressed.

All researches converge towards the necessity of more actions to be taken. Police operations are currently ongoing such as Sluta Skjut. Although results have not been published yet, it is based on a program called Ceasefire Operation

implemented in the US municipality of Boston, which provided positive

outcomes in decreasing the concerning rate of gang-related violence and the use of firearms in the city (Braga et al. 2014). Working on micro-level is also a possible angle of action to handle the dangerous near-repeat pattern happening in shootings. The Cure Violence Global, is a program that aims to interrupt the vicious circle of violence that happened in disadvantaged neighborhoods in

excellent results it got implemented around the globe (Skogan et al. 2008; Cure Violence Global https://cvg.org/who-we-are/).

Methodological and ethical considerations

This Systematic Literature Review presents several limitations that can possibly bias the study.

On a methodological perspective, the research has been conducted exclusively in English language on a Swedish city. Several articles have thus been occulted from it, probably producing bias, not in the interpretation of results but in the gathering of relevant information. To palliate to this flaw, the Systematic Literature Review conducted by Khoshnood (2019) on the increase of firearm-related in Sweden offered a great deal of findings originally published in Swedish language but then accessible to a non-Swedish speaker.

This problem got recurrent when precious data from the Swedish National Police, the Swedish Customs, and the National Council for Crime Prevention, were added to make the study more consistent. Reports were published in Swedish language so, in order to understand them, they were translated in English language with the use of an online translator. However, the translation being approximate it was deemed better to rely on the different researches used in this review, mentioning those reports, to properly comprehend such information.

During the search process, every articles were registered by hand on computer as well as paper note. No bibliographic software has been used in the method, potentially adding more bias to the search and, by extension, the results. On an ethical perspective, this Systematic Literature Review has not been

submitted to any ethic board, thus it is not possible for the author to acknowledge any ethical limitations.

Limitations

This SLR aims at better understanding the rise of firearm-violence in Sweden from a foreign point of view. The fact that no studies in Swedish figure in the review is an obvious strong limitation. It has thus been complex to provide as much information as possible on the matter of firearm-related violence in the city of Malmö, requiring to understand the phenomenon from a national macro-level before narrowing it down to the this largest Swedish city. Consequently, less articles than expected have been gathered. The small amount of researches analyzed can also be considered a limitation to this paper. This SLR is written from a criminological perspective. Even if it includes studies from Clinical Medicine or Forensics, its aim is to better understand the criminal phenomenon of increasing gun and gang-violence in order to identify any means to prevent it.

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