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Reforming a publicly owned monopoly

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To my family

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Örebro Studies in Economics 30

KRISTOFER ODOLINSKI

Reforming a publicly owned monopoly

Costs and incentives in railway maintenance

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© Kristofer Odolinski, 2015

Title: Reforming a publicly owned monopoly: costs and incentives in railway maintenance

Publisher: Örebro University 2015 www.oru.se/publikationer-avhandlingar

Print: Örebro University, Repro 11/2015 ISSN1651-8896

ISBN978-91-7529-106-2

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Abstract

Kristofer Odolinski (2015): Reforming a publicly owned monoply: costs and incentives in railway maintenance. Örebro Studies in Economics 30.

The railway system is often considered to be an industry where a mo- nopoly occurs “naturally”, which can explain the public ownership and the use of regulations. However, railways in Europe have been subject to reforms during the last three decades. The use of tendering has in- creased, which is a way of introducing competition for the market in absence of competition within the market. Still, contracting out services previously produced in-house places a heavy burden on the client, where contract design and its incentive structures can be decisive for the out- come of the reform.

This dissertation provides empirical evidence on costs and incentives in a publicly owned monopoly that is subject to reforms, namely the provision of railway maintenance in Sweden.

Essay 1 estimates the effect of exposing rail infrastructure mainte- nance to competitive tendering. The results show that this reform re- duced maintenance costs in Sweden by around 11 per cent over the peri- od 1999-2011, without any associated fall in the available measures of quality.

Essay 2 estimates the relative cost efficiency between and within maintenance regions in Sweden. The results indicate considerable effi- ciency gaps together with economies of scale not being fully exploited.

Essay 3 analyses the effect of incentive structures in railway mainte- nance contracts. An increase in the power of the incentive scheme reduc- es the number of infrastructure failures according to the results. In addi- tion, the estimated effect of the performance incentive schemes suggests that more effort towards preventing train delays is made at the expense of preventing other failures.

Essay 4 comprises an estimation of marginal costs of rail mainte- nance. The static model produces slightly lower marginal costs com- pared to previous estimates on Swedish data. The results from the dy- namic model show that an increase in maintenance costs in year 1 predicts an increase in maintenance costs in year . Indeed, there is an intertemporal effect that depends on the performed maintenance activi- ties (governed by the contract design).

Keywords: cost efficiency, contracts, tendering, rail infrastructure, maintenance Kristofer Odolinski, Economics

Örebro University, SE-701 82 Örebro, Sweden

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Acknowledgements

I want to express my utmost gratitude to my excellent supervisors Jan-Eric Nilsson, Andrew Smith and Lars Hultkrantz for their support and guid- ance during my time as a PhD-student. Their knowledge and interest in the subject has inspired me throughout the work with this dissertation, and their comments on drafts have been invaluable.

I am also grateful to Phillip Wheat. This work has benefited substantial- ly from his help and advice.

I would furthermore like to thank my colleagues at the Swedish Na- tional Road and Transport Research Institute for listening to presentations of my essays and giving comments. Not least, thank you for fun and stim- ulating discussions during the workdays.

My acknowledgements also go to Vivianne Karlsson, at the Swedish Transport Administration, for providing data and answering various ques- tions. The empirical evidence in this dissertation would not have been possible to provide without her help.

Last but not least, I want to thank my dear family and friends for their encouragement and support. Their ability to divert my focus from rail- ways and economics has also been very helpful.

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Publications in the series Örebro Studies in Economics

1. Lundin, Nannan (2003): International Competition and Firm- Level Performance. – Microeconomic Evidence from Swedish Manufacturing in the 1990s. Licentiate thesis.

2. Yun, Lihong (2004): Productivity and Inter-Industry Wages.

Licentiate thesis.

3. Poldahl, Andreas (2004): Productivity and R&D. Evidence from Swedish Firm Level Data. Licentiate thesis.

4. Lundin, Nannan (2004): Impact of International Competition on Swedish Manufacturing. Individual and Firm-Level Evidence from 1990s.

5. Karpaty, Patrik (2004): Does Foreign Ownership Matter?

Evidence from Swedish firm Level Data. Licentiate thesis.

6. Yun, Lihong (2005): Labour Productivity and International Trade.

7. Poldahl, Andreas (2005): The impact of competition and innovation on firm performance.

8. Karpaty, Patrik (2006): Does Foreign Ownership Matter?

Multinational Firms, Productivity and Spillovers.

9. Bandick, Roger (2005): Wages and employment in multinationals.

Microeconomic evidence from Swedish manufacturing.

Licentiate thesis.

10. Bångman, Gunnel (2006): Equity in welfare evaluations – The rationale for and effects of distributional weighting.

11. Aranki, Ted (2006) Wages, unemployment and regional differences – empirical studies of the Palestinian labor market.

12. Svantesson, Elisabeth (2006): “Determinants of Immigrants’

Early Labour Market Integration” (Essay 1). “Do Introduction Programs Affect the Probability for Immigrants getting Work?”

(Essay 2).

13. Lindberg, Gunnar (2006): Valuation and Pricing of Traffic Safety.

14. Svensson, Mikael (2007): What is a Life Worth? Methodological Issues in Estimating the Value of a Statistical Life.

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15. Bandick, Roger (2008): Multinationals, Employment and Wages.

Microeconomics Evidence from Swedish Manufacturing.

17. Krüger, Niclas A. (2009): Infrastructure Investment Planning under Uncertainty.

18. Swärdh, Jan-Erik (2009): Commuting Time Choice and the Value of Travel Time.

19. Bohlin, Lars (2010): Taxation of Intermediate Goods.

A CGE Analysis.

20. Arvidsson, Sara (2010): Essays on Asymmetric Information in the Automobile Insurance Market.

21. Sund, Björn (2010): Economic evaluation, value of life, stated preference methodology and determinants of risks.

22. Ahlberg, Joakim (2012): Multi-unit common value auctions:

Theory and experiments.

23. Lodefalk, Magnus (2013): Tackling Barriers to Firm Trade.

Liberalisation, Migration, and Servicification.

24. Liu, Xing (2013): Transport and Environmental Incentive Policy Instruments – Effects and Interactions.

25. Elert, Niklas (2014): Economic Dynamism.

26. Ekblad, Kristin (2014): The Economics of Sickness Absence – Social Interaction, Local Cultures and Working Conditions.

27. Yarmukhamedov, Sherzod (2014): A study of asymmetric information problems in vehicle insurance.

28. Vimefall, Elin (2015): Essays on Child Education, Child Labor and the Agricultural Economy.

29 Stake, Johan Y. (2015): Essays on quality evaluation and bidding behavior in public procurement auctions.

30. Odolinski, Kristofer (2015): Reforming a publicly owned monopoly:

costs and incentives in railway maintenance.

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