A Field Study about Public Perspectives on China’s Universal Two-child Policy Implementation

(1)

A Field Study about Public Perspectives

on China’s Universal Two-child Policy Implementation

Author: Wei Xie

Supervisor: Manuela Nilsson & Chris High Field: Peace and Development Work

(2)

ABSTRACT

It is a memorable year in the history of China’s population policy in 2016 because China has implemented Universal Two-child Policy since 1st, June 2016 (Zhang et al., 2016). The policy is

designed to encourage Chinese people to give birth to a second child. Previously, China had implemented One-child Policy during the start of the communist era, which is in an effort to control China’s population. This study explores Chinese people’s desires of having a second child through questionnaires and interviews, the mixed research method, so as to predict actual pregnancy behavior exhibited after implementing the Universal Two-child Policy. In other words, it aims to understand how people will react to the new population control policy. Through mixed research approach, it will present data both with specific numeral data and answers. This filed study will also explore the hidden reasons why people choose to raise one child or two children as well as the voice from people at bottom level. At the end of this study, it shows the strong desire and unwillingness of raising a second child and the problems that people concern, such as compulsory education system, childcare and medicine insurance. a limited incomplete social welfare system. The desire of having a second child does not reflect actual second-child birth rates because of the incomplete social welfare system and existing social issues.

(3)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would first like to acknowledge my thesis supervisor Manuela Nilsson of Social Science Department at Linnaeus University. The accesses to Prof. Nilsson, like her office and her mail are always open for me when I have questions in research and writing. During the research, she guided me to the right direction whenever she thought that I needed. Then I would like to thank all the professors and all the classmates who have also offered a lot of help to me when I was in trouble during study.

Moreover, I would like to acknowledge Professor Chris High and Professor Jonas Ewald. I delay two years to submit this thesis. However, Professor Chris High and Professor Jonas Ewald still give me a lot of help in modifying this research. Prof. High helps me a lot and provides me a plethora of useful advice in writing after the the first thesis defense in 2016, which is helpful for me to modify my thesis in the two years. And Prof. Ewald gives me many directions to prepare the final defense and points for attention.

I would also like to thank all the participants make time for me to complete questionnaire and all interviewees to answer my interviewing questions deeply. Moreover, officers working in sub-district family planning office have also provided much information and a teacher has provided totally different perspective from teacher’s occupation.

I would finally thank my family that contributes all they have to support me in mentality and finance to make me learn more and go further, seeing a totally different world from my country. Thank you.

(4)

LIST OF TABLES

(8)

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

UNFPA United Nations Fund for Population Activities

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

(9)

1. INTRODUCTION

In the initial chapter, the reader will obtain the necessary information for understanding the present research project. This chapter includes background information, problem definition, relevance, purpose of the project, scope of the thesis, limitations, delimitations, ethical problems and an overview of the structure.

1.1 Background

The world is currently overpopulated. The total population was 6.8 billion in 2009 (McDougall, 2010), but growing up to 7.4 billion in the 2010s (Worldometers.info, 2016). What’s more, the population in the world is still growing with the number of 76 million every year, even though the birth rates of the most developed countries and China still keeps in a low level (McDougall, 2010). The rapidly growing population leads to a large number of global issues, such as environmental pressure, climate change, damage to biodiversity and lack of natural resources. Taking environmental problem as an example, population growth gives rise to many negative effects on environment, like greenhouse effect. As a result, the distribution and redistribution of the natural and social resources become the paramount problems in the world (ibid.). More consumers require more natural resources and produce more greenhouse gas emissions (Kurt Oddekalv, 2012, p.4).

(10)

aging, imbalanced sex ratio and issues of young people (Unfpa.org, 2015). According to the latest UNFPA Report- United Nations Population Fund Country programme document for China published (UNPFA, 2015) in 2015, it has planned to donor 22.5 million of US dollars in four aspects, namely Sexual and reproductive health, Adolescents and youth, Gender equality and women’s empowerment and Population dynamics. This project will last five years from 2016 to 2020 in China (ibid.). UNFPA that expects China’s government to increasingly improve reproductive health, maternal leave, childcare and even nursery services, has witnessed the population policy changes over 30 years since China’s government introduced One-child Policy formally (Osotimehin, 2015).

1.2 Research Problem

(11)

1.3 Relevance

According to World Bank (2016), population growth rates in China, India, Sub-Saharan Africa and European Union are 0.5%, 1.2%, 2.7% and -0.1% respectively. Chinese people accounted for 37% in global population in 2009. Now, China has 1.4 billion people and accounts for nearly 19% of the world population in total because of population control policy, which has been declined 18% compared with 2009(ibid.). India, another country with a large population, its national population has grown from 360 million up to 1.2 billion in the past fifty years (Kurt Oddekalv, 2012, p.4). Historically, it is the first country to implement Family Planning Policy but it has no effect (Indiaonlinepages.com, 2016). Besides, Sub-Saharan African region holds 5.2 children per woman as an average. Low education, poverty, traditional concepts are the main reasons that lead to the high fertility (LONGWE-NGWIRSA, 2014, p.1). While developed countries, like Sweden, have extremely low birth rates and small population sizes due to increasing gender equality and relatively high level of education (Sinha, 2003).

Therefore, China’s population control policy sets an example for developing countries with huge population, like Sub-Saharan Africa and India. Taking Sub-Saharan Africa as an example, it has implemented family planning policy to reduce its unplanned pregnancies, which makes valuable contributions to improving its national economy and enhancing gender equality (LONGWE-NGWIRSA, 2014, p.1). In developed countries, they have low population growth rates, which have lost their Demographic Bonus. China’s population control policy can also afford useful lessons to drive the growth of the population.

In conclusion, China’s population control policy provides important experience to make both developed countries with low birthrates and developing countries with high birthrates to manage population float, is closely connected to peace and development discipline.

1.4 Research Objective

(12)

reasons of political decision related to their real life. Moreover, making suggestions for China’ government in policy implementation process is another research objective. The ideological behavior exhibited by the participants, can be regarded as a predictable sample to understand the reasons of number of children that people would like to have under Universal Two-child Policy. From the childbearing behavior and ideologies, the bottom-level will return a feedback to the top-level, which affects the final results. As indicated previously, if people who take the surveys will like to have two children, then there is a great possibility that the Universal Two-child Policy will achieve its expected goal, yet if it does not, then it will fail. This research will also find out how people evaluate the One-child Policy compared with their attitudes towards Universal Two-child Policy. Therefore, it analyzes the current situation of childbearing in China and explains the reasons why people choose to give birth to one child or two children.

However, the result of this research does not offer a precise answer that if Universal Two-child Policy is successful or fail. Depending on policy implementation from the bottom level, it just makes a forecast for the possible success or failure of Universal Two-child Policy implemented in this chosen residence community through people’s perspectives. Moreover, this research contributes to the policy implementation process of Universal Two-child Policy through exploring people’s opinions and giving recommendations to modify Universal Two-child policy in the end. From the government side, I will explore the hidden reason why people still prefer one child and explain the changeable ideal that people are going to raise two children.

1.5 Research Questions

Main questions:

Do you support One-child Policy or not?

Will you react to Universal Two-child Policy positively?

Subsidiary questions:

(13)

What factors will effect people to decide the number of children that people would like to raise? How do people consider the possible impacts on themselves after the implementation of Universal Two-child Policy?

1.6 Limitations and Delimitations

Limitation:

This field study needs survey, interviewing and literature resources. However, Universal Two-child Policy is a pretty new policy in China so that it is hard to find related researches and documents. Moreover, finding right person to candidate remains difficulty. The size of target group, which includes people with who have interests in being interviewed or taking survey, is relatively small. Meanwhile, it takes time to answer interview questions so most people refuse to take interviews with the excuse of no time or no interest in population control policy. Therefore, the number of interviewees is not as many as the number of survey participants. The survey and interview are conducted in Chinese and translated in English then. So language barrier is another identified limitation. In order to protect the privacy and security, interviewees are anonymous. Furthermore, the concrete population and economy situations vary in different regions of China which needs to be analyzed case-by-case. Thus, the case in this study cannot represent the situation of the whole country.

Delimitation:

(14)

1.7 Ethical Problem

In this research, the questionnaires are answered without participants’ names and jobs in order to protect individuals’ privacies. For interviewees, what people have said is presented anonymously. One of the interviewees has ever said population issue is still a relatively sensitive in China’s society. Based on the comment, people’ s basic information, such as age, birth situation, salary and education level will be presented but without names. What this research needs are the hidden opinions that interviewees have provided. Therefore, the full name, as well as specific job positions will not be presented in the Findings Chapter. Moreover, the names of city and province are also assumed.

1.8 Disposition

(15)

2. State of the Art

This chapter is divided into three parts. Firstly, the definitions of related concepts, such as policy, public policy and implementation of policy are introduced and specified. As for the theoretical framework in this research, Policy Implementation Theory is used to support the whole field study. In analysis part, Political Socialization and Alternative Development Approaches are used to analyze the findings.

2.1 Conceptual Framework

This part aims to present the main definitions of some words, namely policy, public policy and policy implementation.

2.1.1 Definitions of Policy and Public Policy

(16)

Citizens are effected through hundreds ways by public policy. For example, people who pay tax and cable bill, are entitled the rights of police protection, fire protection and passed streets (Cochran et al., 1996, p.1-2). It is manifested in law and in the authority. For Family Planning Policy, for example, it is categorized into the public policy to adjust the family size and birth spacing, which is cooperated with other social welfare systems (Healthypeople.gov, 2016).

2.1.2 The Implementation of Public Policies

Webster and Roger define implementation as the actions of carrying out, accomplishing, fulfilling, producing and completing (Hill and Hupe, 2002, p.3). And policy is an object in terms of implementation (ibid.). Mazmanian and Sabatier (1983), define policy implementation as “the carrying out of a basic policy decision, usually incorporated in a statute, but which can also take the form of important executive orders or court decisions”. Actors, such as national government and other top-level departments are implied in this definition. It seems that the process of policy implementation is only held in the hands of minority hierarches.

In comparison, O'Toole (1995, p.43), a federal judge from the United states, defines policy implementation as “it refers to the connection between governmental goal and actual result”. In other words, policy implementation focuses not only on policy-making, but also on practice. The keys to a successful policy implementation are explicit goals, strong systematic management, political, economic and social responsibility and individual willingness (Paudel, 2009, p.37). In general, policy implementation presents the relationship between institutes and individuals. Local government always receives policy from the top-level that makes decisions and implement it to the bottom-level, which is the most common way to implement policies.

However, results of policies are not always positive because the relationship between the top-level and the bottom-level is not always symmetrical during the implementation process (Hill and Hupe, 2002, p.164). It is necessary for local government to focus on the diverse and concrete demands of individuals (Hill and Hupe, 2002, p.165).

(17)

couples at the childbearing age are the objects of policy. As a result, government occupied by officials is responsible to encourage people to consider raising a second child with related assistance of government and give them knowledge about health and childcare, and count the expected number of people who would like to raise one more child (Copeland and Wexle, 2015, p.51). At the same time, the top-level can collect the desire of childbearing from the bottom-level through the local government and public institutions so they can predict how many people would like to giving birth to two children or not and also get to know the hidden reasons and demands from the public.

2.2 Theoretical Framework

Policy Implementation Theory is regarded as theoretical framework to support the whole filed study. It is also establishing the basis to be used to conduct the research by survey and interview. It is helpful to identify the specific China’s policy implementation process. Meanwhile, this theory provides a new form of China’s government to transfer its policy implementation process from top-down perspective， a unidirectional method to a bidirectional method between people and government. Moreover, it provides a theoretical basic for China’s government to explore its policy implementation process with Chinese characteristics.

2.2.1 Policy Implementation Theory: Characters

In the light of policy decisions, Policy Implementation Theory not only needs one-time efforts, but also small adjustments in the long-term (Van Meter and Van Horn, 1975, p.447). In the end of 2013, Selective Two-child Policy has been introduced but received slight response. Based on the results of Selective Two-child Policy, China’s government has to revise their original plan. Accordingly, the government has started to implement Universal Two-child Policy since 2016 (Qiao, 2015, p.6). Compared to Selective Two-child Policy, the new policy is regarded as a positive adjustment. Therefore, the local departments stars to implement the new policy.

(18)

means not only a decision network, but also an implementation process. Secondly, the decision network does not include merely one decision made by government. In fact, there is a series of decisions consisting a specific policy. Thirdly, policy is changing all the time. In other words, policy, which has been announced, does not mean it would stay static or would not be modified invariably. The experience and influences produced in the process can provide reflections and suggestions to improve the policy implementation. The fourth aspect, a social problem is impacted with different kinds of policies, which means one single policy is impossible to address a social problem. So a mature policy network in implementation process is necessary. Fifth, policy has been decided and made from the top-level and it plays a significant role in maintaining the status quo. In other words, policy is an approach to resist the challenges of existing social values.

The last but no the least, the top-down perspective carries out of a policy decision by government that is regarded as policy-makers, playing an oriented role (Matland, 1995). Government and other related departments are important to policy design, policy-making and policy informing (Pipeline, 2013). Meanwhile, the bottom-up approach starts from target groups because they are the actual implementers of policy sometimes, which reflects the efficiency of policy (Hill, 2013, p.16). In this research, target groups, the “grass-roots”, are real implementers related to Universal Two-child Policy because this policy needs people’s birth reactions to achieve its goal. If people react more quickly to the policy, it is faster to reach the goal of policies. Policy is not unidirectional because it is not only from the topside to the downside but also reflected from the bottom-level to the top-level. In other words, policy is bidirectional between both top-down and bottom-up perspectives.

(19)

2.2.2 Evolution of Policy Implementation Theory

The first generation Policy Implementation Theory is more theoretical than practice. Policy Implementation Theory has been developed to a second-generation, which improves a lot than the first one because it explores the relationship between policy and practice.

The top-down perspective refers to policymakers to achieve their policy goals by building up specific mechanisms (Palumbo and Calista, 1990, p.13). In general, policy is implemented at the top of process as beginning and conducted through a series of concrete steps (Elmore, 1978). In this case, National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People’s Republic of China as a top-level bureaucrat serves as the functions of specifying statutes, governing implementation process and setting up the mechanisms of award and punishment (Paudel, 2009, p.40). However, Paudel (2009, p.39) underlines that the second-generation Policy Implementation Theory focuses more on the bottom-up level. The bottom-level will play a crucial role in policy implementation process. Individuals and personal behavior are the key points. In other words, it should be related to individual citizens’ desires and behaviors when policies are delivered, (ibid.). To some degrees, the bottom-up perspective refers to street-level bureaucrat (Hill and Hupe, 2002, p.54). After the top-level bureaucrats introducing a policy, the grass-roots units will implement the concrete regulations and get the feedbacks of people. Then the feedback is returned to the government department at the higher-level, which gives government time to adjust its policy in the implementation process (Paudel, 2009, p.41).

Specifically, there is huge population in China. It is impossible that each person can participates in policy-making process. Therefore, officials at the top-level have to take advices from the bottom-level through street-level department during implementation process. China’s government should collect people’s demands and take full account of what people think and react during the implementation process. It is more possible to reach the achievement of Universal Two-child Policy. Otherwise, it is difficult to encourage people the bottom-level to give birth to a second child if there is no consideration of people’s ideas.

(20)

makers, with the bottom-level, the individual implementers, which is bidirectional. Macro level lacks of sufficient guidance in terms of outcomes and expected goals. Conversely, micro level is short of system-wide decisions. Macro level and micro level can complement each other. In the third-generation Policy Implementation Theory, the bottom-up level and the top-down level are a whole (Paudel, 2009, p.45). Therefore, the third-generation theory is used to achieve the objective of this research. After data collection, it will show how people think about One-child Policy and Universal Two-child Policy and how they will react to the Universal Two-child Policy in the future. Therefore, the feedback, such as people’s reactions and demands will be returned to the top-level. The attention to the bottom-up perspective and the second-generation Policy Implementation Theory will provide necessary and effective information to support and improve the third-generation one. It will present the possibility that Universal Two-child Policy will achieve its expected goal and will predict the number of people who would like to give birth to a second child. The attitudes from the bottom-level will be fed back to the top level. Compared to the bottom-up perspective of the second-generation implementation policy theory, the third one has developed a lot based on the second-generation theory (ibid.).

2.2.3 The Limitation of Policy Implementation Theory

The Policy Implementation Process has many limitations, such as poverty and lack of participation. Poverty negatively affects on the process of policy implementation (Paudel, 2009, p.48). According to UNDP (2018), if a country is under poverty, it will be difficult to support the basic standards of people’s living, which means policy implementation in developing countries, like China, closely interacts with its economic development and political instability (Paudel, 2009, p.48). There is a huge gap between the rich and the poor in China. Poverty still haunts the inner land of China, which makes them too far away to care about the national policy and response to it (Li, 2003, p.7). Another factor that restricts the implementation of policy is the absence of public participation (Paudel, 2009, p.49). In rural areas and remote mountain areas in China, most people lack the access to getting information about the latest policy, which also enlarges the gap between the central-level policymakers and the grass-roots (Li, 2003, p.7).

(21)

implementation process between the top-level and the street-level so it leads the study to collect concrete data through survey questions and interview that opens to the public and interview residents in the chosen residence community. It makes the study target to citizens to get their evaluations of One-child Policy and potential actions towards Universal Two-child Policy. Moreover, the bottom-up perspective of second-generation Implementation Policy Theory also enables this research to make use of street-level department, like family planning office in sub-district administration that is closer to the public than the department at the top-level to get effective feedback (Hill and Hupe, 2002). According to the definition of policy above, the bottom-up perspective can be regarded as an approach to achieve the goal of policies because it is more likely to make policy successful once policymaker at the top-level take more into account what people need and how people feel.

2.3 Analytical Framework

Analytical framework consists of two theories, namely Political Socialization and Alternative Development Approaches.

Political Socialization is used to figure out the factor to affect people to choose the number of children they plan to bring up after the implementation of Universal Two-child Policy. It analyzes related quantitative and qualitative data through family perspective, age factor, income level, influence from peers, education and media, which covers both the public perspective and government’s method. Furthermore, it not only presents the way of government to propagandize new published policy, but also illustrates the influences of personal situation and other external affecting factor that people depend on to make a political-effecting decision.

(22)

2.3.1 The Definition of Political Socialization

Political Socialization is a newly formed concept after the World War II. It has been defined by Powell and Cowart as the “study of the developmental processes by which people of all ages and adolescents acquire political cognition, attitudes, and behaviors (2003)”. Meanwhile, Political Socialization is also defined that an individual can get his/ her own opinion of the political world (Dawson and Prewitt, 1968). In The politics of the Development Areas (1961), Almond, Coleman and others also stressed the importance of individuals in political systems and development.

Plato had argued that people’s values and attitudes would impact on one country’s stability and order, especially for political institutions (Plato., Ferrari and Griffith, 2000). The clou of Political Socialization is “people oriented” when political events are in process (Dawson and Prewitt, 1968). People in different countries have various attitudes towards their political positions in terms of basic needs. Therefore, each country should combine with their own national conditions as well as the commons’ opinions. It is significant to probe how people participate in political process through design, policy-making, publishing and implementation because the political life of a country is closely connected with its citizens’ values, ideas and wills. Moreover, what affect individuals to feel their political lives closely associates to their cultural background, ethnic and religious beliefs, economic and political perspectives (ibid.). Therefore, Political Socialization provides basic theory to analyze Chinese people’s opinions of Universal Two-child Policy. And it is helpful to find out the deeper reasons of Chinese reactions to giving birth to a second child or not.

2.3.2 The Process of Political Socialization

(23)

are at different periods of age will have various attitudes towards their political lives (ibid.). In general, political awareness of early youth establishes the basis for life in the future. For example, a man will be gradually aware of political elements after he started to realize his political life in childhood (Dawson and Prewitt, 1968). Moreover, some major changes of political cognitions will happen during adult life sometimes. On account of the rapid technological advancements and social changes, it is hard to forecast the forms of the society, even from adults’ political perspectives (ibid.).

In a stable polity, it is easy for officials to predict people’s reactions and expectations (Dawson and Prewitt, 1968). China’s government changes its basic population control policy from One-child Policy that has dominated China for 35 years to Universal Two-child Policy, which targets adults as implementers. Facing the huge change of national family planning rules, adults will present their various opinions to the new population control policy in the temporarily instable situation. People who are at different ages have different social experience, social capitals, personal resources and diverse political opinions of Universal Two-child Policy.

2.3.3 Agents of Political Socialization

Agents in Political Socialization are divided into two parts. One part is political agent, such as political parties and political education courses in school. Another part is nonpolitical agents, like family and peer groups (Dawson and Prewitt, 1968). Nonpolitical agents are regarded as the primary relationships with high personality and relative non-structure. For example, primary relationships always happen in a family, friends and colleagues. On the contrary, political parties, educational institutions and public media belong to the secondary relationships since they are more formal but less personal. In other words, secondary relationships more exclude individuals.

(24)

below.

Primary agents

Family as one of the most important social institutions is characterized by personal relationships among people. Family members will influence their values with each other. To a large extent, a family affects its members’ opinions on political orientation strongly because it is key to transmit the political culture from one generation to the next, like from parents to their children. In a family, parent-child relationship is the common hierarchic pattern. Children are not always equal with their parents. Children’s dependency is the most significant feature. Parents’ political behavior and views, even direct intervention, will exert a subtle influence on children. Implementation of Universal Two-child Policy as one of political events is affected by family agent that includes parents ‘influences and the family in importance.

Moreover, family is not the only primary agent in political socialization. Peer groups are vital as well. Family more tends to hierarchy but peer groups prefer the equal relationships among people, like couples, friends and colleagues in small work group. Peer groups are the most basic forms in terms of social relationships because they are viewed as the crucial tool and adjustment of social learning. Peer groups play a significant role in people’s early lives, even influencing their adult lives, because parents and teachers are authorized. They also provide a plethora of personal contact to access and exposure to each other. To some degree, friends, colleagues and couples are effective agents because they are available. Usually, people are affected on their political and social opinions, and behaviors through the primary relationships. Therefore, some interviewees in this research are at the same age and some of them are colleagues working together.

Secondary agents

(25)

process. Teachers are important in society because of their special roles on affecting students’ life orientations, especially for political world. Therefore, it is necessary to divide target group, according to the education level. Teacher in a special position in the society is also the target to be explored in terms of Universal Two-child Policy in this research.

Additionally, social grouping is also influential in political orientation. Societies are usually divided into different groups through different factors, such as income level. Wealth, regardless of personal or family, is a significant factor to allot people into various social groupings. From policy choices and the extent of political participation, people who are in different occupations and income levels will have different opinions from others. In general, the members in the same social group share the similar political choice and have the basically coherent political actions. Therefore, this research will divide participants into different groups with different income levels.

Moreover, communication media is also viewed as one of the secondary agents, such as newspapers, television and Internet. Through the public media, it spreads political activities and related information from government to individuals. The mass media as the tool to connect government with people is becoming increasingly popular in modern world. However, a huge number of studies have shown that the mass communication media does not guide people how to react in political world, but transmits related political messages to the public. On the whole, the mass media serves to strengthen existing political information rather than create new political orientations or change the old ones. So communication media agent is used as a practical method to make people answer survey questions, which means people have participated through public media, like Internet, in this research.

2.3.4 Alternative Development Approaches

(26)

space and put forwards that “development is lived by people” (Friedmann, 1992, p.4). In other words, it is significant to explore what people gain or lose in political process (Chambers, 1984, p.185). Considerations of basic needs, infrastructure and social welfare should be in advantage to all people (Chambers, 1984, p.187). However, Alternative Development Approaches should not ignore the significant role of the state because people’s life cannot be improved without the coordination of their country.

Alternative Development Approaches covers two elements, namely household economy and women empowerment (Friedmann, 1992, p.8-11). Household as the smallest unit in society is what political power should also concern about. Household is gradually extending into a form of relationships from simple social unit to neighbor, social economy and even political associations (Friedmann, 1992, p.46). Households have their own views to allot their income, household resources and time in their livelihood (Friedmann, 1992, p.48). In Alternative Development Approaches, it is necessary to explore the empowerment of household. Relating to the Universal Two-child Policy, people as family a unit in the chosen residence community will present their own opinions of childbearing, for instance, the number of children that they want to have.

(27)

3. Methodology

This chapter introduces the methodology used in this research and explains the reasons why these methods are chosen as well as the selections of participants. Additionally, the concrete processes of sending surveys and interviewing people were presented below.

3.1 Research design

(28)

majority of population in this community is local and the rest are migrants from outside of the region. Residents of this community hold various occupations, such as manager, company employees, teacher and government officer.

Survey Questions

The online survey questionnaire was consisted of 14 single-choice questions and 7 multiple-choice questions. These questions were related to the residents from the chosen community regarding their understandings of One-child Policy and Universal Two-child Policy. The survey questionnaire is helpful to find out what extent those residents understand the current situation of China’s population structure, such as gender ratio and the expected number of children they want to raise with policy limit or without policy limit based on the data collection. The participants who take part in survey with the choice of either “yes” or “no” would answer the single-choice questions. According to multiple-choice questions, participants are allowed to choose which statements are closely related to their true perspectives on the matter. The designated multiple-choice questions are intended to ask those participants questions such as “How did you know about One-child policy?” and “What factors will affect you to consider the number of children that you want to have?” Those participants have to choose at least two answers to complete each multiple-choice question.

There are 243 people participating the survey activity. The background information provided from those who have answered the survey questions is basic, namely gender, age, education level and income level. There are 84 males and 159 females taking part in answering the survey questions. Moreover, there are 5 participants (0-20 years old), 139 participants (20-30 years old), 28 participants (30-40 years old) and 71 participants (older than 40 years old). Age as a factor is essential since people at different age levels have various perceptions towards childbearing.

(29)

2006). The exact number of people who have had two-year college education is 99. Also, there are 114 participants with bachelor degree, 28 participants with master’s degree and only two participants with Ph.D. out of total number.

Income level is the last, but not the least important factor to be considered into background. A family with higher income has stronger economic capacity to raise more children. According to the report of McKinsey Company (REMES et al., 2013)., a global non-profit company to mainly address social challenges indicates the average income of poor class in China is less than 56,700 Chinese Yuan per year. Meanwhile, the indicator of mass middle class is between 56,700 Chinese Yuan per year and 100,800 Chinese Yuan per year. The average income of upper middle class is between 100,800 Chinese Yuan per year and 214,200 Chinese Yuan per year. Moreover, the standard income level of affluent class is no less than 214,200 Chinese Yuan per year (REMES et al., 2013). The number of participants whose salaries are less than 56,700 Chinese Yuan per year is 114, accounting for 46.91%. Meanwhile, the number of those participants whose salaries are between 56,700 Chinese Yuan per year and 100,800 Chinese Yuan per year is 84, which means these people are in mass middle class. There are 45 participants whose salaries are more than 100,800 Chinese Yuan per year.

Interview

(30)

Interview as a part of qualitative research method is helpful to understand deeply of people’s perspectives and actions of Universal Two-child policy. It also contributes to find out hidden reasons why people still want to raise one child or they will be more willing to raising one more child after the implementation of this new population control policy. Meanwhile, the impacts of family, age, income and education level on the willingness of the number of children people want to raise will be uncovered through interview questions. Therefore, people who answer interview questions are selected by the considerations of their jobs, age, income and the number of children they have had in order to show that people can express their different opinions of China’s population control policy.

Moreover, there is an important part of designing different interviewing questions to people with special occupations, such as officers working in sub-strict Family Planning Office and teacher in primary school. Officials who work in sub-district family planning office are at street-level. They can implement concrete measurements and they can also collect feedback of population control policy from people at the bottom-level (Paudel, 2009, p.39). There is a plethora of news about the first child trying to suicide to prevent his/her mother from give birth to a second child (Lv, Liu and Yu, 2015, p.117). This kind of children do not want the second child to take away the love and concentration from their parents. In general, teachers are symbolically regarded as “parental representative” when children are in school. Schools and teachers are responsible to provide psychological consultation lesson to children (Lv, Liu and Yu, 2015, p.117). As a result, it is necessary to interview both officers and teachers.

Table 1 presents interviewees’ backgrounds with gender, occupations, income level and the desire of the number of children they would like to raise under universal Two-child Policy.

Table 1: Background of Interviewees

Interviewee Gender Income level The number of children they had have

The number of children they want to raise

1 Female Poor Class 0 1 or 2

(31)

3 Male Mass Middle Class 0 1

4 Female Mass Middle Class 0 2

5 Male Poor Class 0 2

6 Female Poor Class 1 1 or 2

7 Female Poor Class 1 1

8 Male Middle Class 0 2

9 Male Middle Class 0 1

10 Female Middle Class 0 2

11 Female Mass Middle Class 1 1

12 Male Affluent Class 1 2

15 Female Poor Class 1 1

Sampling

(32)

3.2 Research Process

Survey and interview are conducted in the residence community at the same time. The researcher has spent twenty days to collect information. Participants answer the questionnaire by Internet. Related questionnaire has been uploaded onto a well-known Chinese questionnaire platform called Sojump (one of China’s biggest online questionnaire platforms) (Sojump.com, 2016). The researcher would upload the specific link of questionnaire online of the Local Residents Committee (业主委员会,“yezhuweiyuanhui”). Residents Committee is a non-governmental organization existing in each residence community, consisting of representatives of total residents. It is defined as “It is a mass-based organization that is built on the collective needs of residents ‘lives” (Yu, 1999). Yu (1999) explains that the objective of Residents Committee is “to address people’s social problems inside the habitable zones.” Its online platform that is open to the residents looks for a favor or gives a hand to other residents only in this community. Therefore, only residents who live in this community can answer these survey questions. Then those participants would get a website link that can be only provided by researcher to keep coherent with this study, which means other people cannot answer these survey questions if they are not the residents in this community. When respondents finish the questionnaire and submit their answers, the researcher would get the information from this website immediately, which is different from the traditional postal questionnaires and mail questionnaires. This self-administered questionnaire is quicker and more convenient for respondents because people can take survey at anytime and anywhere (Bryman, 2015, p.220). Those residents merely need to access to Internet and finish their questionnaire with a click. Besides, the answering process and results are completely anonymous, which keeps their identity private in order to encourage people to express their attitudes towards One-child Policy and Universal Two-child Policy (Evaluation Briefs, 2008).

(33)

necessary to explain the aim and describe the target group’s characteristics to officers working in this Residents Committee so that they can approve the researcher’s identification. Then officers in Residents Committee will contact people who has been chosen as interviewees to ask for permission before the researcher get contact with them. Once interviewees are willing to take interview, the researcher will contact them to make an appointment. Before interviewing, the researcher will explain the study again to make sure if interviewees indeed understand the purpose of this study and they will also be informed what they say will be recorded anonymously. In the end of interview, the related contents of interview will be reflected to interviewees to make sure if the record is coherent with them.

3.3 Data Analysis

Bryman (2015, p.677) has pointed out that

“Try to think of the quantitative and the qualitative findings thematically across the two sets of results so that findings are presented in terms of substantive issues rather than in terms of different methods (2015, p.677)”.

(34)

4. Results

Qualitative data and Quantitative data would be presented with combination through thematic method in this part. Since these kinds of data will complementary with each other (Bryman, 2015, p.641). Qualitative interview data would provide constructive observation compared to online questionnaire data while quantitative data will convince people more by numerical information than qualitative interview data. Moreover, results of survey will present how many people choose a specific answer and interview will show the essence in terms of this phenomenon. Meanwhile, it is scientific to design different questions of questionnaire and interview because it makes this research more comprehensive (ibid.). As a result, quantitative results should not be presented and discussed separately from qualitative findings (Bryman, 2015, p.677).

4.1 Backgrounds and Policy Context

(35)

was serious employment problem in China in the planning economic system. Less children means more employment opportunities in the future. In other words, less newborn can release a serious of problem of government at its source (Liu, De and Xiong, 2014).

However, the negative impacts of One-child Policy emerged gradually when China was successful in controlling the population growth after more than three decades. An aging society caused by One-child Policy has been resulted in the shortage of labor force as well as an imbalanced gender rate (Chan, 2015). Zhuzhi Yang (2016), the professor of China Youth College for political science explained, “the number of preganancy is declined,” which means the decline of newborns. According to the Sixth National Population Census in 2010, the percentage of children aged from 0 to 19 has declined from 22.89% to 16.6% compared to the Fifth National Population Census in 2000 (the Sixth National Population Census, 2010). Meanwhile, people who are over 60 years old account for 13.26% in 2010 from 10.33% in 2000 among total Chinese population (ibid.). Because of the growing aging population and lack of younger labor force, China’s economic development has been encountering the shortage of labor force. (Banister, E. Bloom and Rosenberg, 2010, p.2).

In order to solve the aging problem and the lack of young population, China’s government published the New Selective Two-child Policy in 2014 as a beginning point of a significant change of its family planning policy, which means a family with an existing child may choose to have a second child without having any sort of administrative penalty (Wang and Zhou, 2015, p.93). Due to the country’s large population size, Chinese government introduced New Selective Two-child Policy before Universal Two-child Policy because policy-makers is worried that the policy would initiate a baby boom (Li and Cai, 2014, p.68). Yet, so far the baby boom has not happened as China government predicted (Ren, Guo and Han, 2016).

(36)

give birth to a child in a second time. On the contrary, if a mother gives birth to only one child first, she can have one more chance of her second pregnancy. However, there is an exception to this policy. When a woman gives birth to one child at first, she can get away from the punishment if she gives birth to twins or multiple birth second time. On the contrary, a woman is not allowed to have a second pregnancy if she has given birth to twins or multiple birth.

The purpose of Universal Two-child Policy is to coordinate the relationships between environment, human beings and economy as usual (Health and Family Planning Commission of Zhejiang Province 2015). Subsequently, UNFPA places great hopes on fulfillment of Chinese couples' rights on family size through Universal Two-child Policy (Osotimehin, 2015). Whether couples are more willing to give birth to two children than before under Universal Two-Child Policy or not will be explored in this research. In order to implement Universal Two-child Policy successfully, couples should have the desire to have two children in a family. If couples wish to have no more than one child, then the policy has possibility to fail to achieve its goal. To address this issue, it is important to obtain and comprehend the general public’s viewpoints towards childbearing.

4.2 Measurements Have Been Done and the Feedbacks from the Public

(37)

4.2.1 Perspectives from the Top-level

Interviewee 17, the official in family planning office in the chosen residence community, has presented that China’s government considers that the number of newborns would be out of control if Universal Two-child Policy was announced first. So as she said, Selective Two-child Policy as a transition from one child to two children that a family could have was introduced before Universal Two-child Policy. There are 40,000 people in total living in the chosen sub-district region where the chosen residence community locates. According to the local family planning office of the chosen residence community, it has predicted that there would be nearly 500 or 600 newborns after the implementation of Selective Two-child Policy. The number of newborns that is 100 per year in this sub-district region has been stable in the past decades. When Selective Two-child Policy was announced in 2014, the number of newborns has increased from 100 up 300. In reality, it is not a ideal number of newborns as government expected before. However, official of family planning office in this residence community has not had the statistical data of the number of pregnant women since Universal Two-child Policy has been implemented at the beginning of 2016, which is in such a short period.

The responsibility of officer in family planning office is to propagandize related policies to the public. Besides, the mission of the officers is also to assist women to obtain the knowledge of pregnancy, women’s health care and childcare. However, when to be asked whether central government has ever required local officers to investigate people’s perspectives of population control policy, Interviewee 17 says that they have never do the research to put forward their demands and opinions. On the contrary, students who are in university or college and some scholars always do some researches like questionnaires and interviewing to collect desires of raising children from people. According to Interviewee 17 as a government officer at basic level, what they must do is to know about people’s basic demands so that Universal two-child Policy based on public’s demands will be implemented more successfully.

(38)

ethnic groups. For instance, people who are minority can give birth to a second child under One-child Policy. Couples who are both only One-child in their families also has the birthright to have a second child. Meanwhile, people can also raise a second child if their first child is disabled. Therefore, One-child Policy does not mean each person can only have a child in his/her life. This policy would offer various results to different people, which guaranteed each family was able to have a healthy child but still controlled population growth rate.

Furthermore, different cities have its own specific population policy but they will follow the mainstream population control policies from central government. The officers should contribute to the children insurance in related to the social welfare. Moreover, officials of the local family planning office remedy one of the negative impacts of One-child Policy urgently. In China, there is a sizeable special group called “the loss of only-children families” (失独家庭: “shidujiating”), defined as those who have responded positively to One-child Policy but they had lost their only-child by illness or accidents (Song, 2014). Local family planning department are caring about these families that have lost their only child and cannot have children any more because of physiological problem, like people become infertile through aging. It is necessary for government to help these families out of sadness. For example, related officers working in government often visit “the loss of only-children families” and accompany them regularly (Song, 2014). The officials from this sub-strict region have made frequent visits to the local primary school, high school and university, and delivered related information regarding adolescence, healthy sexuality and contraception in order to increase the awareness of physiological and psychological health for youth.

Based on the interview, Interviewee 13 who also works in government has also emphasized that it is late to implement Universal Two-child Policy. An appropriate period of population policy should be ten years. One-child Policy began in 1971. It was published officially from 1979 until 2014, which means it lasts for nearly 35 years. It is too long to be beneficial for development. Therefore, China is losing its advantages of demographic dividend. UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) has defined “demographic dividend” as (Unfpa.org, 2018):

(39)

a lower proportion of young dependents. Smaller numbers of children per household generally lead to larger investments per child, more freedom for women to enter the formal workforce and more household savings for old age. When this happens, the national economic payoff can be substantial”.

Whether the announcement of Universal Two-child Policy can release the problem caused by One-child Policy or not is hard to see now because it mainly depends on the birth action of the second child.

Universal Two-child Policy as an encouraging policy makes people much easier to accept it because it does not force people to give birth to a second child, which means people can have one more choice. At the same time, nearly half of the population from this local community are willing to give birth to only one child and the rest prefer to raise a second child. However, most interviewees still insist one child due to the consideration of family financial support, time and energy. Officers (Interviewee 13 and Interviewee 17) have mentioned that “Actually, most people are still looking on how this policy implements and thinking a second child will bring more negative impacts rather than benefits in their lives.”

For Universal Two-child Policy, what officer should also do for the public is to supervise women who are pregnant with a second child to have prenatal examination regularly. For example, officials will suggest women to have an abortion if the infant is not healthy enough but they will respect people’s decisions if people still want to give birth to an infant. Furthermore, it is a big step for the population policy that government has extended the period of maternity leave. However, Universal Two-child Policy has not been implemented for a long time. Interviewee 13 said “but other social security service and social welfare system have not followed it in time”.

4.2.2 Perspectives from the Bottom-level

(40)

residents from this community. At the beginning of population control policy implementation, for instance, most people were worried that if they would get punishment when they gave birth more children, such as financial punishment and even losing a job. People could not support their existing children once they are punished with penalty or losing their jobs. In this situation, it is effective to prevent people from giving birth to more children. In order to have a male child, people who had been affected deeply by traditional concept would have an illegal ultrasound scan to know if the infant is male or not. Then people would choose to have an abortion once they find the infant is female. This behavior is not healthy for women but women are forced to do. Otherwise, other family members would look these women down upon. But now, people are much freer from the traditional ideology than before. Increasing people are more rational to realize that it is better to focus on the whole economic support and time to take care of their children. Moreover, citizens pay more attention to their standards of living. Residents in this community also want to enjoy their spare time, not being limited in bring up children. Therefore, both Interviewee 13 and 17 illustrated that most citizens have sideline to Universal Two-child Policy.

Based on the online questionnaire result, there are 166 participants who just understand the content of Universal Two-child Policy as to merely raise two children now and they are not able to comprehend this new population control policy completely. There are less than 50 participants know that the aim of Universal Two-child Policy is not only to ease the aging problem, solve the problem of lack of young workforce, but also to complete the social welfare service, build an equal and sustainable social security system and bridge the gap between the poor and the rich.

4.3 Age of Effecting People’s Political Life

(41)

understanding of this policy based on their own experience which was influenced by the policy to a high extend. One interviewee has put forwards that “only child” could get extra points when taking high school entrance test in the past.

4.3.1 Influence of One-child Policy in Childhood

(42)

4.3.2 The Relationship between the Expected Number of Children and the Age

of Respondents

Here are two variables, namely the expected number of children and the age of respondents. More than 50% survey participants prefer two children now. However, people choose to give birth to one child still accounts for 39.1% in total. Respondents who are above 20 years old tend to have two children. To be more specific, the majority of the respondents are willing to have two children. Apart from that, there are 6.6% participants hoping to give birth to more than two children. This result shows that people who are older have much stronger desires to have two or more children then younger participants. As they grow older, people are eager to get more care from family members. Meanwhile, people who are older have much better financing footing to support their families since they accumulate personal wealth for a long time than the younger.

4.3.3 Understanding of Universal Two-child Policy at Present

Universal Two-child Policy has been implemented since 1st January 2016 (Zeng and Hesketh, 2016). Half numbers of interviewees think this new population control policy will have a great influence on their lives. As they are provided one more choice than before, which means China’s government is loosing the population control policy and rethinking how to promote and modify this policy. People can set their minds at ease to give birth to two children without any forms of punishment. Moreover, some people think they will just have a single-child family under One-child Policy but now they have an an opportunity to have two One-children with Universal Two-One-child Policy, which means they will cherish this chance. Two interviewees have expressed that even though they do not have any plan to raise two children at present but it becomes possible for them to change their minds in the future. One female interviewee who has given birth to a second child has enjoyed the longer maternity leave than before.

(43)

“I have been pregnant this year but I still have had an abortion. I am 46 years old so there is a big risk of my health. Moreover, there is a higher possibility for elderly pregnancy women to give birth to unhealthy children. Meanwhile, I am getting older but I do not have enough energy, like young couples, to take care of a newborn. My first child will graduate from university soon and we plan to let her study abroad, which means we need to pay for high tuition fee and living expenses for my daughter. In short, my husband and I do not have strong economic condition, enough time and energy to start to raise another child all over again”.

Some interviewees have already decided how many children they will raise before the implementation of Universal Two-child Policy. Even one female interviewee (Interviewee 10) has considered she prefers to take financial punishment in order to have two children or more, as her parents expect more grandchildren. However, another male interviewee (Interviewee 3) feels more stressful since his parents want him to raise two children, which is not coherent with his opinion. He has said:

“Before the implementation of Universal Two-child Policy, One-child Policy is regarded as an excuse for me to persuade my parents do not look forward me to having two children. However, due to the encouragement of Universal Two-child Policy, I have no reason to persuade them now.”

(44)

who do not have the good jobs, like considerable incomes, cannot create a good environment for their children to grow up, which is a vicious cycle.

A family with two children means double living expenses, compare to a family with one child. For interviewees who do not have strong economic footing, they would feel economically stressful when they had a second child because of the growth of living expenses. Two-children means double living expenses. Under the situation of a regular income with in a family, two children have to share resources, such as food, clothes and education resources with each other. Most interviewees thought it was not good for a child’s personal development. The public’s perception in China states that Chinese parents are more willing to bringing up one child well, not raising two children in a relatively careless way. Moreover, there are 6 interviewees (Interviewee 1,2,4,11,14,15) considering that the living standard will decline when couples have two children. In order to take care of their two children, a significant number of people think they have to give up their spare time and the cost of feeding and clothing themselves well. Meanwhile, couples will have less economic resources and less energy to satisfy their own development needs. Besides, parents more or less will be in favor of the younger child than the older one. Hence, how to balance the concern between two children is also an awkward problem for couples. Furthermore, some interviewees (Interviewee 8 and 9) have described that if the time interval between two kids' births was long, it may be sort of generation gap between them, which is harder to communicate with each other than the two children whose ages are close to. Therefore, parents have to find appropriate ways to communicate with their children and guide them to be good friends. On the other hand, couples may not have enough energy and time to take care of two kids if there is a short time interval between their births. Obviously, raising one more child is not an easy thing so that people have to think it over before making decisions. In a conclusion, the most negative things that worry Chinese parents are higher living expenses and decreased standards of living.

(45)

“Compared with single-child family, it is much easier to support old parents for families with two children. They can share the responsibilities to take are of parents and decrease the economic pressure of supporting the old when they grow up.”

Furthermore, two children in a family are able to accompany with each other when their parents are busy with working so that they will not feel lonely, which is beneficial during their growth.

The result above is also shown in multi-choice questionnaire. Majority people have stated that two children could accompany with each other. Meanwhile, 60.49% of participants have thought that children will learn to discover joy and reward of giving, sharing and caring. Moreover, half of participants have believed the parents will be well-cared by more children. All above the survey information is coherent with the interviewing data. Therefore, the most significant roles of having two children are the importance of accompany between two children, making children learn how to share with and care about other people and more strongly supporting the family when parents are old. However, the most negative impacts for the public are double living cost, less personal spare time, double costs of educating them and the selections of the methods of educating their children in accordance of their aptitude.

4.5 The Impacts of Interpersonal Relationship in People’s Responds to Policy

In interview, most people think the number of children they would like to raise influenced by their parents, friends and ever workmates. Therefore, interpersonal relationship is non-ignorable when people react to policy.

4.5.1 Consideration of Hierarchical Viewpoint in Family

(46)

so they need their parents to help them to take care of their children. Some interviewees have even pointed out that children trafficking and child abuse by baby-sitters always happen. Hence, it would be better to make grandparents look after grandchildren. Furthermore, grandparents with childbearing experience will provide life experience and skills for their grandchildren. Those are the reasons why young couples still need their parents’ support because of shortage of time, energy and childbearing experience, even though they might have strong economic footing. Meanwhile, most interviewees have also thought about their first child’s opinions because they want two children to get along well with each other. If the first child refuses strongly to have a younger brother or sister, they will try to communicate with the first child and explore the reason why the first child does not want to have a brother or sister. Interviewee 9 has said:

“If I plan to have a second child, I will implant ideology, like the benefits of having a younger member in our family, to my first child. For example, I will tell him/her that he/she will have a good friend to play, study and grow up with and to promise him/her we will not be in favour of the younger.”

However, there are 23.46% of participants still taking into account their parents’ and children’s perspectives in terms of raising one more child. Moreover, Interviewee 1 and Interviewee 5 have expressed that they will not consider the first child’s opinion because children are always easy to change their minds and they understand nothing. For example, Interviewee 5 has said that if first child is 15 years old, he would take advice from the first child. Meanwhile, interviewee 3 has considered neither parents’ opinions nor the first child’s viewpoints because she thinks raising how many children was her own business, depending on her economic base, time, energy and willingness. Most perspectives from the survey question people were in accordance with Interviewee 3’s opinion.

A Field Study about Public Perspectives on China’s Universal Two-child Policy Implementation