The Ind ivisible 2030
Agenda
Systems analysis for sustainability
David Collste
David Collste T he Ind ivisible 2030 Agenda
Doctoral Thesis in Sustainability Science at Stockholm University, Sweden 2021
Stockholm Resil ience Centre
ISBN 978-91-7911-492-3 David Collste
holds a joint European Master in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen and the New University of Lisbon and a MSc in Political Sciences from Uppsala
University.
In 2015 the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda with 17 global sustainable development goals (SDGs) to shift the world on to a sustainable path. By referring to the SDGs as indivisible, the Agenda emphasises the interdependence of social and ecological concerns. But what does it imply that the goals are interdependent and how is
indivisibility to be handled scientifically?
In this dissertation, I investigate how models and participatory methods grounded in systems thinking can be used to facilitate the
realisation of the 2030 Agenda. The thesis operationalizes a systems approach, and bridges local Agenda 2030 aspirations to global sustainability narratives. Further, I explore how system dynamics models can be used to represent the interactions between SDGs, and how human well-being can be integrated in systems models in relation to SDGs. Finally, I study synergies and trade-offs between different SDGs, and the significance of values and worldviews for their
implementation.
The Indivisible 2030 Agenda
Systems analysis for sustainability
David Collste
David Collste T he Ind ivisible 2030 Agenda
Doctoral Thesis in Sustainability Science at Stockholm University, Sweden 2021
Stockholm Resilience Centre
ISBN 978-91-7911-492-3
David Collste
holds a joint European Master in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen and the New University of Lisbon and a MSc in Political Sciences from Uppsala University.
In 2015 the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda with 17 global sustainable development goals (SDGs) to shift the world on to a sustainable path. By referring to the SDGs as indivisible, the Agenda emphasises the interdependence of social and ecological concerns. But what does it imply that the goals are interdependent and how is indivisibility to be handled scientifically?
In this dissertation, I investigate how models and participatory methods grounded in systems thinking can be used to facilitate the realisation of the 2030 Agenda. The thesis operationalizes a systems approach, and bridges local Agenda 2030 aspirations to global sustainability narratives. Further, I explore how system dynamics models can be used to represent the interactions between SDGs, and how human well-being can be integrated in systems models in relation to SDGs. Finally, I study synergies and trade-offs between different SDGs, and the significance of values and worldviews for their implementation.
Doctoral Thesis in Sustainability Science at Stockholm University, Sweden 2021 Doctoral Thesis in Economics at Université Clermont Auvergne, France 2021
Da vid C ollste The Indivisible 2030 A genda - S ystems analy sis f or sustainability
The Indivisible 2030 Agenda
Systems analysis for sustainability
David Collste
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University
Centre for Studies and Research in International Development, University of Clermont Auvergne ISBN 978-91-7911-492-3
In 2015 the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda with 17 global sustainable development goals (SDGs) to shift the world onto a sustainable path. By referring to the SDGs as indivisible, the Agenda emphasises the interdependence of social and ecological concerns. But what does it mean that the goals are interdependent and how is indivisibility to be handled in research and implementation?
In this dissertation, I investigate how models and participatory methods grounded in systems thinking can be used to facilitate the understanding and realisation of the 2030 Agenda. The dissertation explores and examines:
(a) how system dynamics models can be used to represent integrated goals and their synergies at multiple levels, (b) how human well-being can be more inclusively integrated into systems models, and (c) how systems approaches can help to bridge local aspirations to global sustainability goals, incorporating multiple values and worldviews in the operationalisation of the Agenda.
David Collste
holds a joint European Master
in System Dynamics from the
University of Bergen and the
New University of Lisbon and
a MSc in Political Sciences from
Uppsala University.
The Indivisible 2030 Agenda
Systems analysis for sustainability
David Collste
Academic dissertation for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Sustainability Science at Stockholm University to be publicly defended on Thursday 3 June 2021 at 14.15 in Vivi Täckholmsslen (Q-salen), NPQ-huset and online via Zoom, public link is available at the Stockholm Resilience Centre website.
Abstract
In 2015 the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda with 17 global sustainable development goals (SDGs) to shift the world onto a sustainable path. By referring to the SDGs as indivisible, the Agenda emphasises the interdependence of social and ecological concerns. But what does it mean that the goals are interdependent and how is indivisibility to be handled in research and implementation?
In this dissertation, I investigate how models and participatory methods grounded in systems thinking can be used to facilitate the understanding and realisation of the 2030 Agenda. The dissertation explores and examines: (a) how system dynamics models can be used to represent integrated goals and their synergies at multiple levels, (b) how human well-being can be more inclusively integrated into systems models, and (c) how systems approaches can help to bridge local aspirations to global sustainability goals, incorporating multiple values and worldviews in the operationalisation of the Agenda.
Keywords: 2030 Agenda, Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs, synergy, integrated policy, systemism, planetary boundaries, policy coherence, system dynamics, participatory approach, human well-being.
Stockholm 2021
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-192266
ISBN 978-91-7911-492-3 ISBN 978-91-7911-493-0
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm
THE INDIVISIBLE 2030 AGENDA
David Collste
The Indivisible 2030 Agenda
Systems analysis for sustainability
David Collste
©David Collste, Stockholm University 2021
ISBN print 978-91-7911-492-3 ISBN PDF 978-91-7911-493-0
The cover is painted by Christina Nilsson-Collste, from an original illustration by Jerker Lokrantz at Azote.
The photograph on the back of the cover was taken by Kristian Pohl.
Printed in Sweden by Universitetsservice US-AB, Stockholm 2021
Till mina föräldrar
Kicki och Göran.
This dissertation is submitted for a double doctorate degree in Sustainability Science, awarded by Stockholm University, and Economics, awarded by the University of Clermont Auvergne, through a bilateral cotutelle agreement.
Supervisors:
Dr. Sarah E. Cornell, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
Dr. Arnaud Diemer, CERDI, Université Clermont Auvergne, France Dr. Thomas Hahn, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
Dr. Ana Paula Aguiar, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
This project has received funding from the European
Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation pro-
gramme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant
agreement No 675153
2
Abstract
In 2015 the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda with 17 global sustain- able development goals (SDGs) to shift the world onto a sustainable path. By referring to the SDGs as indivisible, the Agenda emphasises the interdepend- ence of social and ecological concerns. But what does it mean that the goals are interdependent and how is indivisibility to be handled in research and im- plementation?
In this dissertation, I investigate how models and participatory methods grounded in systems thinking can be used to facilitate the understanding and realisation of the 2030 Agenda. The dissertation explores and examines: (a) how system dynamics models can be used to represent integrated goals and their synergies at multiple levels, (b) how human well-being can be more in- clusively integrated into systems models, and (c) how systems approaches can help to bridge local aspirations to global sustainability goals, incorporating multiple values and worldviews in the operationalisation of the Agenda.
This thesis comprises four papers. Paper I explores the interdependence of
different 2030 Agenda goals through the use of a national-level system dy-
namics model applied to Tanzania to analyse anticipated social and economic
impacts of substantial investments in photovoltaic capacity. Model simula-
tions indicate that, in addition to building more sustainable energy systems,
the investments in photovoltaics positively affect life expectancy, years of
schooling as well as access to electricity. Furthermore, progress in these di-
mensions leads to broader system-wide impacts. This indicates that identify-
ing policy synergies across sectors before policies are implemented can pro-
vide important insights for achieving the 2030 Agenda. In Paper II, we pre-
sent a method for identifying policy synergies and assessing them quantita-
tively. The developed synergy approach is then operationalised over three case
studies representing Côte d’Ivoire, Malawi and Senegal. In order to further
explore the synergies and interdependencies between different human wellbe-
ing goals, Paper III studies data on the achievement of SDGs 1- 7 in seven
world regions and the world as a whole. In an analysis of the correlations be-
tween these SDGs and GDP per person, we find uniform patterns for all re-
gions above a certain income threshold. This indicates that there is an income
3
level at which human needs and capabilities are achieved, consistent with the Easterlin’s paradox of life satisfaction. In order to address the importance of including diverse perspectives, Paper IV investigates how the pursuit of the 2030 Agenda can be grounded in local worldviews. The paper introduces a stakeholder-based approach grounded in systems thinking for visioning and exploring sustainable development pathways to meet the SDGs. The approach focuses on identifying divergences and convergences across scales and worldviews about how to implement the Agenda. The paper presents a case study, the 2018 African Dialogue on the World in 2050, which deliberated on how transforming the agricultural and food systems in African regions could lead to achieving the SDGs in an integrated manner, comparing local perspec- tives to global sustainability trajectories.
The dissertation concludes with three main insights:
1. System dynamics models can highlight 2030 Agenda links and facil- itate a shift to a more inclusive development discourse grounded in systems thinking.
2. The human well-being SDGs 1 to 7 offer a way of including more complex measures of well-being in models that can be relevantly quantified.
3. In order to democratise the 2030 Agenda discourse, it must be acknowledged that there are multiple possible pathways to meet global goals and diverse voices need to be heard.
Overall, this thesis contributes to the academic debate about the use of systems approaches to implement the 2030 Agenda in the Anthropocene.
It also provides tools and analyses to help resolve policy challenges of the
2030 Agenda’s implementation, by informing how strategies can be more ef-
ficient and sustainable.
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Sammanfattning
2015 antog Förenta Nationerna Agenda 2030 med 17 globala mål för hållbar utveckling, SDGs. Genom att hänvisa till målen som odelbara understryker agendan hur sociala och ekologiska problem hänger samman. Men vad inne- bär det att målen är ömsesidigt beroende och hur ska odelbarheten hanteras inom forskning och vid implementeringen av agendan?
I denna avhandling undersöker jag hur modeller och deltagandeprocesser som utgår från systemteorier kan användas för att bidra till förståelsen och förverk- ligandet av Agenda 2030. Avhandlingen undersöker: (a) hur systemdyna- miska modeller kan användas för att representera integrerade mål och syner- gier mellan dessa på olika nivåer, (b) hur teorier om mänskligt välbefinnande kan bli mer integrerade i systemmodeller, samt (c) hur systemverktyg som innefattar en mångfald av värderingar och synsätt kan bidra till att skapa bryg- gor mellan lokala ambitioner och globala hållbarhetsmål i genomförandet av agendan.
Denna avhandling består av fyra artiklar. Paper I utforskar de ömsesidiga be-
roenden som finns mellan olika Agenda 2030-mål genom en nationell system-
dynamisk modell applicerad på Tanzania. Syftet är att analysera förväntade
sociala och ekonomiska effekter av kraftiga investeringar i solceller. Modellsi-
muleringarna antyder att solcellsinvesteringar, utöver att bidra till ett mer håll-
bart energisystem och tillgång på elektricitet, också har positiva effekter på
förväntad livslängd och antalet skolår. Dessutom leder framgångarna på dessa
områden till ytterligare systemmässiga förbättringar. Dessa resultat pekar på
att man genom att identifiera synergier mellan olika samhällssektorer innan
politiska förslag implementeras kan få viktiga insikter för hur Agenda 2030
kan nås. I Paper II presenterar vi en metod för att identifiera policysynergier
och utvärdera dem kvantitativt. Den utvecklade synergimetoden operational-
iseras på tre fallstudier som representerar Elfenbenskusten, Malawi och Sene-
gal. För att vidare utforska synergier och ömsesidiga beroenden mellan olika
mål för mänskligt välbefinnande studeras i Paper III data för måluppfyllelse
av SDGs 1 till 7 i sju världsregioner och i världen som helhet. I en analys av
korrelationerna mellan mål 1 till 7 och BNP-inkomst per person finner vi tyd-
liga mönster för alla regioner över en viss inkomstnivå. Detta indikerar att det
5
för varje region finns en viss inkomstnivå vid vilken mänskliga behov tillgo- doses och mänskliga förmågor uppnås, vilket överensstämmer med nivån för den s k Easterlin-paradoxen om mänsklig lycka. För att betona vikten av att inkludera olika perspektiv vid modellering av hållbarhetsmålen undersöker Paper IV hur strävan efter att nå Agenda 2030 kan utgå från världsbilder som finns lokalt. Artikeln presenterar ett intressent-baserat tillvägagångssätt för att skapa visioner och utforska vägar till en hållbar utveckling som inkluderar marginaliserade röster. Fallstudien The 2018 African Dialogue on the World in 2050, vilken handlade om framtida vägar för matsystem i olika afrikanska regioner relaterat till globala scenarier för hållbarhet, presenteras. Artikeln drar slutsatsen att deltagandeprocesser som inkluderar olika former av system- teorier är ett lovande tillvägagångssätt för att koppla samman lokala ambit- ioner med globala mål för hållbar utveckling.
Avhandlingen avslutas med tre övergripande slutsatser:
1. Systemdynamiska modeller kan visa kopplingar mellan olika hållbar- hetsmål och bidra till en mer inkluderande diskussion om vad utveckl- ing innebär med rötter i systemtänkande.
2. Indikatorer för hållbarhetsmålen 1 till 7, som är kopplade till mänsk- ligt välbefinnande, påvisar hur mer komplexa mått för välbefinnande, såsom behov, frihet och funktion, kan inkluderas i modeller och kvan- tifieras på ett relevant sätt.
3. För att demokratisera diskursen om Agenda 2030 behöver en mång- fald av röster höras och det behöver förtydligas att det finns olika till- vägagångssätt för att uppnå de globala hållbarhetsmålen.
På ett övergripande plan bidrar denna avhandling till den akademiska diskuss-
ionen om användningen av metoder som grundar sig i systemtänkande för att
implementera Agenda 2030 i Antropocen. Genom att visa hur strategier för de
globala hållbarhetsmålen kan bli mer effektiva och långsiktiga bidrar avhand-
lingen också till ett förbättrat underlag för politiskt beslutsfattande.
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Résumé
En 2015, les Nations Unies ont adopté l’Agenda 2030 avec 17 Objectifs de développement durable (ODD) pour amener le monde sur une trajectoire du- rable. En conférant aux ODD le caractère indivisible, l'Agenda met l'accent sur l'interdépendance des préoccupations sociales et écologiques. Mais que signifie cette interdépendance et comment gérer cette indivisibilité à la fois dans la recherche scientifique et dans l’implémentation des Objectifs ? Dans cette thèse, nous avons cherché à comprendre comment les modèles et les méthodes participatives se revendiquant de la pensée systémique pouvaient être utilisés pour faciliter la compréhension et la réalisation de l'Agenda 2030.
La thèse entend répondre à trois interrogations : (a) comment la modélisation des systèmes dynamiques peut être utilisée pour représenter des Objectifs in- tégrés et leurs synergies à plusieurs niveaux ? ; (b) comment le bien-être hu- main peut être intégré de manière plus inclusif dans la modélisation systé- mique ?; et (c) comment les approches systémiques peuvent aider à combler l’écart entre les aspirations locales et les Objectifs mondiaux de durabilité ? Notamment via l’incorporation de valeurs et de visions du monde plurielles.
Cette thèse comprend quatre articles. L’Article I explore l'interdépendance de
différents Objectifs de l'Agenda 2030 à l’aide d'un modèle de dynamiques de
système, developpé au niveau national et appliqué à la Tanzanie. Il s’agit d’an-
ticiper l’impact sur la société et l’économie d'investissements considérables
dans la production d’énergie photovoltaïque. Les simulations du modèle in-
diquent qu'en plus de construire des systèmes énergétiques plus durables, les
investissements dans le photovoltaïque affectent positivement l'espérance de
vie, la durée de scolarisation ainsi que l'accès à l'électricité. De plus, les pro-
grès dans ces dimensions conduisent à des impacts plus vastes à l'échelle du
système. Ces résultats suggèrent qu'identifier les synergies possibles entre des
politiques dans différents secteurs, avant même la mise en œuvre de ces poli-
tiques, peut fournir des renseignements précieux afin d’atteindre les Objectifs
de l’Agenda 2030. Dans l’Article II, nous présentons une méthode visant à
identifier les synergies entre différentes politiques, puis à les évaluer quanti-
tativement. Cette méthode est appliquée à trois études de cas : la Côte d’Ivoire,
le Malawi et le Sénégal. Afin d'explorer plus avant les synergies et les inter-
dépendances entre les différents Objectifs liés au bien-être humain, l’Article
III étudie des données sur le degré d’avancement des ODD 1 à 7, dans sept
7
régions du monde séparément, et dans le monde dans son ensemble. L’analyse
des corrélations entre ces ODD et le PIB par habitant montre certaines cons-
tantes qui sont valables pour toutes les régions au-dessus d'un certain seuil de
revenu. Cela suggère qu’il existe un niveau de revenu à partir duquel les be-
soins et les capabilités des humains sont satisfaits, conformément au paradoxe
d’Easterlin. Afin de prendre en compte l'importance d'inclure diverses pers-
pectives, l’Article IV examine comment la poursuite de l'Agenda 2030 peut
être ancrée dans des visions du monde locales. L’article introduit une approche
basée sur la participation des parties prenantes, qui permet de visualiser et
d’explorer différentes trajectoires de développement durable dans le but d’at-
teindre les ODD. L’article présente une étude de cas, le Dialogue Africain sur
le monde en 2050, qui en 2018 a suscité des délibérations sur les orientations
futures des systèmes alimentaires dans différentes régions africaines et les a
mises en relation avec les trajectoires mondiales en matière de durabilité. L’ar-
ticle conclut que les approches participatives qui intègrent la pensée systé-
mique constituent un moyen prometteur de lier les aspirations locales aux Ob-
jectifs mondiaux de l'Agenda 2030.
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List of papers
This doctoral thesis consists of a summary and four papers (I-IV). The papers are appended to the end of the thesis and reprinted with permission from the copyright holders.
Paper I: Collste, D., Pedercini, M., & Cornell, S. E. (2017). Policy coherence to achieve the SDGs: Using integrated simulation models to assess effective policies. Sustainability Science, 12(6), 921–931.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-017-0457-x
Paper II: Pedercini, M., Arquitt, S., Collste, D., & Herren, H. (2019). Har- vesting synergy from sustainable development goal interactions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(46), 23021–23028.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817276116
Paper III: Collste, D., Cornell, S. E., Randers, J., Rockström, J., & Stoknes, P. E. (in review). Regional Achievements of Well-being SDGs in the Anthro- pocene. In review for Global Sustainability.
Paper IV: Collste, D., Aguiar, A. P. D., Harmáčková, Z., Galafassi, D., Pe-
reira, L., Selomane, O., & Van Der Leeuw, S. (in review). Three Horizons for
the Sustainable Development Goals: A Cross-scale Participatory Approach
for Sustainability Transformations. In review for Ecology & Society.
9
Group 2: Eastern Group 1: Western and Central
Group 3: Southern
Group 4: African continent (Sub-Saharan)
Paper III:
Human Wellbeing:
Regional data on SDGs 1 to 7. Assessment of quantitative relations for human well-being.
Paper II:
Synergies seen through a comparative analysis of three case study models.
Paper I:
National modelling with Tanzania as case study.
Paper IV: Participatory
approach for multiple perspectives, comparing to sustainability pathways.Contribution to included papers
In Paper I, I developed the case study example and designed the research. I performed the modelling together with M.P. I simulated the model and ana- lysed the data. I wrote the paper and received useful directions from the co- authors.
In Paper II, I jointly conceptualised and wrote the paper together with the co- authors. My main contributions are in the sections Method, Synergy—A Defi- nition for SDG Analysis, A Framework for Analysis of SDG Synergies, and Discussion.
In Paper III, I designed the data gathering process together with J.Ra., includ- ing choosing the relevant indicators, and transcribing and transforming data to usable formats. I designed the research for the paper, performed the research and analysed the data. I wrote the paper and received useful directions from co-authors.
In Paper IV, I contributed to the conception of the work as programme officer for SwedBio. I co-designed the participatory approach and facilitated the pilot case study the 2018 African Dialogue on the World in 2050, together with the co-authors. I analysed and interpreted the data. I led the paper development and received useful directions from the co-authors.
A conceptual figure showing the four thesis papers positioning on different aspects of pathways for global sustainability. Adapted from the figure in Aguiar, Collste, Harmáčková, Pereira, Selomane, Galafassi, van Vuuren and van der Leeuw. 2020, that was based on Fazey et al. (2016) and Roy et al. (2018). This figure is discussed
as Figure 7.
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Related publications outside the thesis
Peer reviewed articles
Aguiar, A. P. D., Collste, D., Harmáčková, Z. V., Pereira, L., Selomane, O., Galafassi, D., Van Vuuren, D., & Van Der Leeuw, S. (2020). Co-designing global target-seeking scenarios: A cross-scale participatory process for capturing multiple perspectives on pathways to sustainability. Global Environmental Change, 65, 102198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102198
Downing, A. S., Bhowmik, A., Collste, D., Cornell, S., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Häyhä, T., Hinton, J., Lade, S. J., & Mooij, W. (2019). Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science. Environmental Research Letters.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22c9
Engström, R. E., Collste, D., Cornell, S. E., Johnson, F. X., Carlsen, H., Jaramillo, F., Finnveden, G., Destouni, G., Howells, M., Weitz, N., Palm, V., & Fuso-Nerini, F. (2021). Succeeding at home and abroad—Accounting for the international spillo- vers of cities’ SDG actions. npj Urban Sustainability, 1(1).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-020-00002-w
Randers, J., Rockström, J., Stoknes, P.-E., Goluke, U., Collste, D., Cornell, S. E., &
Donges, J. (2019). Achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals within 9 plane- tary boundaries. Global Sustainability, Vol 2, E24.
https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2019.22
Schneider, A., Hinton, J., Collste, D., González, T. S., Cortes-Calderon, S. V., &
Aguiar, A. P. D. (2020). Can transnational corporations leverage systemic change towards a ‘sustainable’ future? Nature Ecology & Evolution, 4(4), 491–492.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1143-4
Other peer reviewed publications
Collste, D. (2020). New Economic Paradigms. In Encyclopedia of the World’s Bi- omes (pp. 296–302). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.12446-7 Collste, D. (2021). Modeling Korpi and Palme's ’Paradox of Redistribution and Strategies of Equality’. In R. Y. Cavana, B. C. Dangerfield, O. V. Pavlov, M. J.
Radzicki, & I. D. Wheat (Eds.), Feedback Economics: Economic Modeling with Sys- tem Dynamics. Springer. https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030671891 Diemer, A., Collste, D., & Spittler, N. (2020). Systemic Issues and Multi-Stakehold- ers Partnerships for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals. In W. Leal Filho, A.
M. Azul, L. Brandli, A. Lange Salvia, & T. Wall (Eds.), Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (pp. 1–14). Springer International Publishing.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71067-9_72-1
11
Co-authored reports
Aguiar, A. P., Collste, D., Galafassi, D., Harmáčková, Z., Houngbedji, K., Mesfin, M., Ndahiro, D., Pereira, L., Selomane, O., & van der Leeuw, S. (2019). The Second African Dialogue on the World in 2050—How to attain the SDGs within planetary boundaries: Agriculture and food systems. Report on a Multi-Actor Dialogue for TWI2050, 30—31 October 2018, Kigali, Rwanda. Sustainable Development Goals Center for Africa and SwedBio/Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm Univer- sity. https://swed.bio/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/7017-0034-2nd-TWI2050-di- alouge_report_WEB.pdf
Galaz, V., Collste, D., & Moore, M.-L. (2020). Planetary Change and Human De- velopment. Background paper to the 2020 Human Development Report: The next frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene [Unpublished manuscript, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University].
Karangwa, C., Mesfin, M., Dubois, T., Henao, L., Mutune, J., Ndahiro, D., Sempeho, G., Collste, D., Cornell, S. E., & Mellegård, V. (2018). The African Dia- logue on the World in 2050: How can agriculture contribute to meeting the SDGs?
https://swed.bio/reports/report/dialogue-workshop-report-african-dialogue-twi2050/
Randers, J., Rockström, J., Stoknes, P. E., Golüke, U., Collste, D., & Cornell, S. E.
(2018). Transformation is feasible: How to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries. A report to the Club of Rome, for its 50 years anniversary 17 October 2018. Stockholm Resilience Centre. https://www.stock- holmresilience.org/publications/artiklar/2018-10-17-transformation-is-feasible--- how-to-achieve-the-sustainable--development-goals-within-planetary-bounda- ries.html
TWI2050 - The World in 2050. (2018). Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative. IIASA.
https://doi.org/10.22022/TNT/07-2018.15347
TWI2050 - The World in 2050. (2019). The Digital Revolution and Sustainable De- velopment: Opportunities and Challenges. Report prepared by the World in 2050 in- itiative. IIASA. http://dx.doi.org/10.22022/TNT/05-2019.15913
TWI2050 - The World in 2050. (2020). Innovations for Sustainability: Pathways to
an efficient and sufficient post-pandemic future. IIASA. 10.22022/TNT/07-
2020.16533
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Contents
1. Introduction, research aim and contributions ... 13 1.1 Research aim ... 14 1.2 Summary of thesis contributions ... 15 1.3 Structure of the kappa ... 18 2. Research context and background ... 20 2.1 The emergence of an interdependent social- ecological Earth system view ... 20 2.2 Intergovernmental responses: Historical background to the 2030 Agenda ... 22 2.3 The 2030 Agenda: Universal, transformative, and indivisible ... 24 2.4 Criticisms of the 2030 Agenda and how science can contribute ... 25 2.5 Human well-being and sustainability in the 2030 Agenda context ... 27 2.6 Modelling the 2030 Agenda ... 31 3. Theoretical framing: Systemism ... 34 3.1 Systemism to align knowledge and action for the 2030 Agenda ... 34 3.2 The system dynamics perspective ... 36 3.3 Social-ecological systems, resilience and development ... 39 3.4 System boundaries: Systemic triangulation for 2030 Agenda studies ... 40 4. Contributions: Systems analysis applications ... 44 4.1 Research in transdisciplinary sustainability projects ... 44 4.2 Conceptual framework ... 45 4.3 Overview of research methods and data sources ... 48 4.4 System dynamics modelling for the 2030 Agenda ... 50 4.5 Participatory approach grounded in systems thinking – Three horizons for the SDGs (3H4SDG) ... 53 5. Summaries of the thesis papers ... 55 5.1 Paper I: Policy coherence to achieve the SDGs ... 55 5.2 Paper II: Harvesting synergy from sustainable development goal interactions ... 58 5.3 Paper III: Regional Achievements of Well-being SDGs in the Anthropocene ... 60 5.4 Paper IV: Three Horizons for the Sustainable Development Goals ... 62 6. Discussion and conclusion ... 65 6.1 Key insights ... 65 6.2 Implications for practice and policy ... 67 6.3 Ethical reflections ... 67 6.4 Personal reflections on my research journey ... 69 6.5 Financial support ... 71
Literature cited ... 72 Index… ... 87 Thank you ... 87
Papers I to IV follow, separated by orange-coloured sheets.
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” The interdependencies among peoples and nations over time and space are greater than commonly imagined. Actions taken at one time and on one part of the globe have far-reaching consequences that are impossible to predict intui- tively, and probably also impossible to predict (totally, precisely, maybe at all) with computer models.”
Meadows, D. H., Richardson, J. M., & Bruckmann, G. (1982).
Groping in the dark: The first decade of global modelling. Wiley.
1. Introduction, research aim and contributions
The 2030 Agenda is the international community’s response to the unprece- dented social-ecological challenges of the 21
stcentury. It presents the most comprehensive global roadmap adopted since the UN Charter. The Agenda responds to society’s demands for international coordination to sustainably ensure human well-being for all, and in harmony with nature.
That the 2030 Agenda is referred to as indivisible signifies the goals’ inte- grated nature and marks a historic shift for the UN towards “one sustainable development agenda” (Biermann et al. 2017 p. 26). The Agenda is also the most ambitious effort yet of goal-setting at the centre of global policy (ibid.).
Indivisibility reflects that there are inherent interdependencies between the goals and the actions needed to achieve them. But how is this indivisible agenda and the interdependent goals to be handled, scientifically and practi- cally? This dual challenge requires approaches that reflect the increasingly complex interdependencies between human well-being and its foundation, the biosphere (Folke et al. 2016).
Implementing the 2030 Agenda’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in
ways that take their inherent systemic interdependencies into consideration
requires policy coherence for sustainable development (OECD 2015). Policy
coherence for sustainable development also needs to incorporate human de-
pendence on Earth’s life-supporting systems (Griggs et al. 2013), as well as
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impacts on the Earth system from human production and consumption sys- tems. These impacts are becoming increasingly significant in the Anthropo- cene, the geological epoch in which humans and societies “have become a global geophysical force” (Steffen et al. 2007 p. 615). Living in the Anthro- pocene necessitates recognising the risks of current socio-economic develop- ments causing systemic deterioration of the biophysical environment that could trigger large-scale Earth system shifts, with potentially devastating con- sequences for humanity (Steffen et al. 2018).
For science, the interdependent nature of the SDGs in the Anthropocene im- poses a challenge of providing relevant frames for comprehending the goals, their linkages and the complex processes of change involved in implanting and achieving them. To respond to this challenge, the goals should be ap- proached in a systemic rather than sectoral fashion, and ideas for action should be put in the context of systems-oriented approaches. As C. S. Holling ex- plains:
” Both the science of parts and the science of the integration of parts are essen- tial for understanding and action. Those more comfortable in exercising only one of these have the responsibility to understand the other. Otherwise the sci- ence of parts can fall into the trap of providing precise answers to the wrong question and the science of the integration of parts into providing useless an- swers to the right question.” (Holling 1998).
Systems approaches focus on the interlinkages between parts and how the nature and structure of these interlinks give rise to outcomes. They thus belong to what Holling refers to as the “science of the integration of parts”. The sys- tems approaches applied in this thesis also recognise the importance of how systems are understood by the different actors within them. Systems ap- proaches can be applied for improving theoretical understanding, and for in- forming real-world action, and are often situated in the cognitive intersection of knowledge and action. They have long been used for an integrated under- standing of the world system. Well-known examples include the global inte- grated system models applied in The Limits to Growth (Meadows et al. 1972, 1974, 1992, 2004) and International Futures (Hughes 1999, 2019), but sys- tems methods are also used in works that support local engagement in sustain- ability transformations (see, e.g., Holling 1978).
1.1 Research aim
Since 2016, when I began working on this dissertation - less than a year after
the 2030 Agenda agreement was signed - there has been an enormous increase
in the academic literature on different aspects of the 2030 Agenda and its im-
plementation. This includes research investigating interactions between goals
and targets (see Bennich et al. 2020 for a review of this literature), as well as
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research focusing on science that supports improving national implementation of the Agenda (see reviews by Allen et al. 2016, 2018, and 2021a). These recent reviews have identified research gaps that should be filled to provide better understanding of the Agenda and to guide its implementation. Key gaps identified include; a lack of methods that improve the understanding of inter- linkages between SDGs (Allen et al. 2018, 2021a), the lack of systems think- ing and integrated analytical approaches and models (Allen et al. 2018), a lack of systems approaches that cover the full Agenda (Bennich et al. 2020), and the lack of participatory methods informed by systems thinking (Bennich et al. 2020). This thesis contributes to filling these identified gaps in the current research discourse on the 2030 Agenda. Specifically, this dissertation aims to demonstrate:
How models and participatory approaches grounded in systems thinking can highlight interdependencies between goals, and contrib- ute to bridging global sustainability knowledge and the decision-mak- ing arenas of the 2030 Agenda.
In line with this aim, in this work I have explored and examined:
A. How system dynamics models can be used to represent the complex- ity of interactions between SDGs, both qualitatively and quantita- tively (Papers I and II)
B. How human well-being can be (re-)conceptualised for integration in systems models, in the context of world-Earth modelling of SDG pathways (Paper III)
C. How systems approaches can help to bridge local aspirations to global sustainability goals, incorporating multiple values and worldviews in the operationalisation of the Agenda (Paper IV).
1.2 Summary of thesis contributions
My research explores the intersection between the knowledge producing pro- cesses of global sustainability research, and the actions necessary to achieve global sustainability goals, e.g., in the form of policy implementation. This form of knowledge-action interface can, according to Cash et al. (2003), be explored with different types of ‘boundary objects’, including models and sce- narios, as I do in this dissertation. Exploring the knowledge-action interface can allow research to more effectively contribute to translating knowledge to action (Cornell et al. 2013).
The main scientific contribution of this thesis is showcasing the use of systems approaches in understanding the indivisibility prescribed by the 2030 Agenda.
To fully take on a systems approach to the 2030 Agenda necessitates both
obtaining a general systems understanding that recognises the complexity
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of the Agenda’s social, economic and environmental goals, and applying sys- tems methods to gain specified systems understanding. In particular, global systems models have tended to integrate economic and environmental aspects, while leaving social aspects and human well-being comparatively poorly ren- dered. Systems approaches serve different purposes, including helping the user to see and understand system components and their interconnections as well as guiding actions to improve outcomes. Taking concrete, actionable steps that are informed by systems thinking requires comprehending what sys- tems thinking implies. Given that the Agenda is referred to as indivisible and the integrated challenges that the global society is facing today, systems think- ing that better captures societal goals is not a choice but a necessity.
Below follows a brief introduction to the contributions made by the different thesis papers.
Paper I demonstrates how integrated simulation models can be used to ana- lyse progress on the SDGs at a national level. The study embarks from an existing version of the Threshold 21 model, a system dynamics model de- signed to support integrated long-term national development planning (see Barney 2002). In the paper, we analyse anticipated health and educational im- pacts of substantial investments in photovoltaics capacity in a pilot case study model of Tanzania. We systematically map out how mutually reinforcing causal relationships between SDG 3 on healthy lives, SDG 4 on education, and SDG 7 on energy, can give rise to system-wide improvements in electric- ity access, life expectancy and schooling. We expand the Threshold 21 model with a new causal structure incorporating links between electricity access and health and educational outcomes. We also quantify these links and discuss how qualitative understanding of causal links can be relevantly translated to a quantified model with a higher level of abstraction. The model simulations and results are the first application of the Threshold 21 integrated SDG model, iSDG.
Paper II presents a generalisable approach for quantitatively estimating syn- ergies between policies for SDG implementation. The possibility of identify- ing probable SDG synergies before implementing 2030 Agenda policies can facilitate the harmonisation of policies and improve their collective impacts.
In the paper, we present a method for identifying synergies and assessing them quantitatively, as well as a framework for categorising these synergies. The synergy approach that is laid out is operationalised in three case studies rep- resenting Côte d’Ivoire, Malawi and Senegal. The case study simulations in- dicate that strategies for SDG implementation can be significantly improved, and more SDGs achieved, if synergies are considered in the SDG planning.
My main contributions to the paper are first, conceptualising the synergies
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approach, second, comparing it to other tools for identifying synergies, and, third, highlighting the uniqueness as well as limitations of the approach.
Paper III analysis how human well-being can be conceptualised in world- Earth models. World-Earth models are an emerging class of stylised dynamic global social-ecological system models that seek to incorporate more human aspects than earlier models. Human well-being is often referred to as the over- arching aim of societies, specifically in relation to sustainability. Despite be- ing a societal aim, human well-being is rarely relevantly incorporated into world modelling as these tools often focus predominantly on energy and ma- terial flows. Human aspects that are incorporated in these models are either demographic (i.e., population sizes) or economic aggregate incomes (i.e., GDP measures). In Paper III, we conceptualise human well-being in terms of the achievement of the 2030 Agenda’s human well-being goals, SDGs 1 to 7.
We study regional historical data on progress on these SDGs and relate this data to the corresponding levels of GDP per person as measured by purchasing power parity (PPP). We also contextualise the seven SDGs with reference to theories of well-being: preference satisfaction theory, life satisfaction ap- proaches, human needs, and the capabilities approach. In the data, we observe stark regional differences of SDG attainments: the patterns of human well- being for the world as an aggregated whole has developed differently from its seven regions, with implications with respect to scale for the future use of world-Earth models in discussions of global sustainability. This work has contributed to the development of the Earth3 model (Randers et al. 2019), where the regional relationships were used to calibrate the model links be- tween GDP per person levels and human well-being outcomes.
Paper IV brings a cross-scale outlook and focuses on differences in values
and worldviews in relation to 2030 Agenda implementation. Global pathways
generated in international sustainability studies are contrasted to narratives
that are prevalent among regional stakeholders in relation to food systems in
Sub-Saharan African regions. The paper embarks from the need to embed the
pursuit of the 2030 Agenda in worldviews “on the ground”. It both recognises
and promotes the importance of convergences and divergences in perspec-
tives. In order to relevantly incorporate diverse perspectives, we argue for the
need to increase participation of people that are not heard in global sustaina-
bility studies. We therefore propose a participatory approach that builds on the
widely used Three Horizons framework for foresight and transformation. The
approach is also demonstrated in relation to a case study, the 2018 African
Dialogue on the World in 2050, which serves as a pilot for other regional
multi-stakeholder discussions in support of SDG implementation. The Dia-
logue deliberated on how transforming the agriculture and food systems in
regions of Africa could contribute to reaching the SDGs in an integrated man-
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ner. Local pathways were then compared to global narratives about sustaina- bility. The paper details the premises and steps of the developed Three Hori- zons for the SDGs (3H4SDG) approach and highlights its methodological ad- vancements. We also summarise the results from the pilot application of the approach, which highlighted multiple and contrasting perspectives on the im- plementation of the Agenda. The paper concludes that participatory ap- proaches grounded in systems thinking represent a promising way to link local aspirations with 2030 Agenda goals and global sustainability pathways.
1.3 Structure of the kappa
Figure 1 presents an overview of the thesis contribution and kappa structure.
Following this introduction, Section 2 provides the research context of the
knowledge-action interface of the 2030 Agenda including a historical back-
ground to the 2030 Agenda and the state of the art of modelling in support of
sustainability. In Section 3, I set out the theoretical frame of the thesis, focus-
ing on ‘systemism’. In Section 4, I present the thesis’ contributions in the form
of systems analysis applications and explain how the papers fit together and
contribute to aspects of the knowledge-action interface. In Section 5, I sum-
marise the dissertation papers, and in Section 6 I discuss and conclude the
paper results.
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Group 2: Eastern Group 1: Western and Central
Group 3: Southern
Group 4: African continent (Sub-Saharan)
ACTION
KNOWLEDGE
2030 AGENDARESEARCH CONTEXT AND BACKGROUND
Modelling in support of sustainability:
Global Integrated Assessment Models – climate, energy, economy systems National-level system dynamics models
Stylized global systems models
CHALLENGE:
• Goals are indivisible
• Scenario approaches are dominated by North perspectives GAPS:
• Planetary boundaries (other than climate)
• Human wellbeing (except as captured in GDP) THEORETICAL
FRAMING SYSTEMISM
• Specified systems understanding
• General systems understanding
• Diverse mental models
• Participatory dialogue
CONTRIBUTIONS SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
APPLICATIONS
Integration of human capabilities into
pathways to a safe operating spaceCross-scale assessments The World In 2050 World-Earth modelling
Earth3
I National
model II Synergies III Human
well-being IV Multiple
perspectives National-level policy-support
iSDG PAPERS
Figure 1: Overview of the thesis contribution and kappa structure.
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2. Research context and background
In this section, I present a historical account of the interdependent social-eco- logical Earth system (2.1) and the policy responses from an intergovernmental viewpoint (2.2) – arriving at the 2030 Agenda based on the three aspects: that the Agenda is referred to as universal, transformative, and indivisible (2.3). I thereafter discuss criticism against the Agenda and how science can contribute (2.4), as well as the constituents of human well-being and sustainability that are central to the thesis papers (2.5). The section ends with a description of current modelling practices in support of sustainability (2.6).
2.1 The emergence of an interdependent social- ecological Earth system view
In the 1960s and the 1970s, concerns were rising over the environmental con- sequences of increases in material throughput, fuelled by rapidly growing global economies and populations. These concerns included environmental problems caused by the use of chemicals and pollutants (note Rachel Carson’s Silent spring from 1962), population growth (Ehrlich 1971), and the wider
“predicament of mankind” (The Club of Rome 1970). The predicament of mankind incorporated intertwined problems at the aggregated world level, in- cluding e.g. widespread poverty, growing malnutrition, and environmental de- terioration and was jointly put together in a document to the Club of Rome (1970). The concern about the “predicament of mankind” led the newly estab- lished Club of Rome to invest in the first world-level simulation models, pre- sented in Jay W. Forrester’s World Dynamics (1971) as well as the report The Limits to Growth (DH Meadows et al. 1972). The Limits to Growth was based on a computer-based stylised global world model, World3 (DL Meadows et al. 1974), which linked human development, including population and mate- rial throughput, to environmental limits.
The World3 model outputs presented in Limits to Growth anticipated that hu-
manity would run into ecological limits within the coming century, i.e., in the
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stcentury, if no significant radical societal changes to counteract this devel-
opment would be taken (the computer simulation ran from 1900 to 2100). Ac-
cording to the study, the limits will either have the form of sources, i.e., limi-
tations in the use of non-renewable resources such as oil or coal, or, they will
have the form of sinks, i.e., caused by the limited absorptive capacity of the
Earth in handling different forms of environmental pollutions such as green-
house gases. The system dynamics method that was used for these first world
models, further presented in Section 3, has developed closely alongside the
last 50 years of discussions on sustainable development (Pedercini et al. 2020
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presents an overview of contributions from the system dynamics field to sus- tainable development discussions).
The early 1970s was also the time for James Lovelock and Lynn Margulis’
Gaia hypothesis. The hypothesis suggests that all living organisms interact with their non-living surroundings on Earth in forming a self-regulating com- plex system that has maintained the conditions for life (Lovelock 1972, Love- lock and Margulis 1974).
In the 1980s, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (est. 1987), IGBP, was founded, dedicated to the study of phenomena of global environ- mental change, informed by the feedbacks between life and its abiotic sur- roundings. This was an early initiative setting the foundation for what has come to be called Earth system science (NASA 1988, Lawton 2001). Follow- ing these developments, the first assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were published in the early 1990s (IPCC 1992, 1996). The assessment laid out the scientific basis for the possibility of hazardous human interference in the global climate system due to anthropo- genic carbon emissions leading to average temperature rise (Cornell et al.
2012). Since then, the growing understanding of Earth system processes has also brought an increased interest in ways to integrate social and bio-geo- physical phenomena.
It is now widely acknowledged that the Earth system has become human-dom- inated (Steffen et al. 2004). In this context it has been suggested that humanity has entered the Anthropocene (Waters et al. 2016, Subramanian 2019) – the geological epoch in which humans and societies “have become a global geo- physical force” (Steffen et al. 2007 p. 615). This implies a need to find ways to live responsibly, acknowledging human dependencies on a functioning Earth system, and its societal implications (Hamilton 2017).
Theories of social-ecological systems have helped in our understanding of the Earth system (Holling 1986). Social-ecological systems are systems where hu- man societies and ecological systems are integrated, with reciprocal feedback and interdependence (Folke et al. 2010). Theories of social-ecological systems emphasise resilience, defined as the capacity of a system to absorb changes, but also to reorganise when facing disturbances to retain the same functions (Folke et al. 2010, Walker and Salt 2012). Reduced resilience implies in- creased vulnerability of the system to disturbances which can risk causing a collapse. Social-ecological systems and resilience perspectives are further pre- sented in Section 3.
Attempts to define the resilience of the Earth system incorporate identifying
critical Earth system processes that are key to human flourishing. It is within
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this context that a ‘safe operating space for humanity’ has been defined in terms of nine planetary boundaries (Rockström et al. 2009a, 2009b, Steffen et al. 2015). The boundaries mark out the biogeochemical conditions of the Hol- ocene – the relatively stable geological epoch that has provided favourable conditions for agriculture and complex societies to flourish. Breaching these boundaries implies increasing risks for the Earth’s life-supporting systems, driving the Earth system into a new state that is ecologically vulnerable and hence unfavourable for human flourishing. Global biophysical models and in- tegrated assessment models have been developed mainly for climate processes and their economic impacts, but not the wider human-caused challenges high- lighted in the planetary boundaries framework. Thus, stylised world-Earth models are needed for the analysis of interactions of global environmental changes with human well-being.
2.2 Intergovernmental responses: Historical background to the 2030 Agenda
International political discussions have over the past 50 to 60 years gradually responded to the global environmental crises and the increased understanding of human and Earth system interdependencies. Since the formation of the United Nations in the aftermath of the Second World War, the organisation has expanded its agenda beyond its core focus on international security and human rights, to include global developmental, environmental and climate concerns. The first UN conference on the ‘human environment’ was held in Stockholm in 1972. The conference concluded with the following statement:
“To defend and improve the human environment for present and future gener- ations has become an imperative goal for mankind – a goal to be pursued to- gether with, and in harmony with, the established and fundamental goals of peace and of world-wide economic and social development” (United Nations, 1973).
The 1972 Stockholm conference was followed up in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 with the UN Conference on Environment and Development. The outcome - the Rio Declaration - was a short document with 27 principles that emphasised the interrelations between human development and the environment. The Dec- laration also highlighted that:
“the major cause of the continued deterioration of the global environment is the unsustainable pattern of consumption and production, particularly in industri- alized countries” (United Nations, 1992).
The Rio outcomes were heavily influenced by the Brundtland Commission’s
report ‘Our common future’, which defined the term sustainable development
as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising
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the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (World Commission on Environment and Development 1987).
In 2001, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan convened the Millennium Sum- mit during which member countries agreed on eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), to be reached by 2015. Although the MDGs included one goal on environmental sustainability, they were predominantly human-centred, in- cluding goals on hunger, education, gender equality, child mortality, maternal health, HIV/AIDS and malaria, and global partnership for development. The MDGs were a big achievement for a global mobilisation to achieve social pri- orities (Sachs 2012). However, a critique of the MDGs notes that the goals were often seen in isolation incorporating siloed approaches to reach them (Rippin 2014). Beyond the date when the MDGs were to be achieved, new global priorities were to be formulated under the headline of a ’Post-2015 de- velopment agenda’.
20 years after Rio, a second conference was held in 2012, Rio +20. The Rio+20 outcome document was titled ‘The future we want’ (United Nations 2012) and included an agreement to develop a set of ‘Sustainable Develop- ment Goals’, SDGs.
The 2030 Agenda is thus an outcome of the two parallel negotiation processes:
‘the Post-2015 development agenda’ (United Nations 2013), negotiating the MDG follow-up; and the ‘SDGs’ – building on the agreement from the Rio+20 conference. The reconciliation of the two processes has been widely seen as a success for integrating environmental sustainability into a broader poverty- and development-oriented framework (Biermann et al. 2017).
The 2030 Agenda negotiations have been recognised for being both inclusive and innovative (Biermann et al. 2017). They included sessions of stakeholder stocktaking, and researchers were invited to give presentations during the preparations for the negotiations (Chasek et al. 2016). Although the 2030 Agenda reflects decades of multilateral negotiations and shares many charac- teristics with earlier UN resolutions, the Agenda is unique in two ways.
Firstly, it marks the most ambitious effort yet to place goal-setting at the centre
of global policy (Biermann et al. 2017). Secondly, it marks a historic shift
towards one sustainable development agenda that integrates social and eco-
nomic development with environmental sustainability (ibid.). Related to this,
it is noteworthy that the 2030 Agenda resolution incorporates systems terms,
e.g. by referring to the SDGs as “interlinked”, “integrated” and “indivisible”,
and it includes the statement that the “The survival of many societies, and the
biological support systems of the planet, is at risk.” (United Nations 2015).
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2.3 The 2030 Agenda: Universal, transformative, and indivisible
The 2030 Agenda incorporates 17 SDGs with 169 targets and 231 indicators (the indicators were agreed two years later, United Nations 2017). Im- portantly, the Agenda also includes a preamble and a declaration including three aspects. The Agenda is referred to as being universal, transformative, and indivisible
1(Mohammed 2015, United Nations 2015).
That the Agenda is referred to as being universal implies that the SDGs, unlike the MDGs, apply to all countries: “These are universal goals and targets which involve the entire world, developed and developing countries alike.” (United Nations 2015). It is, therefore, possible to compare the achievements of goals between different countries and world regions, at least for a subset of indica- tors for which data is available. Examples of such comparisons are the national level focused Index and Dashboards Reports (Sachs et al. 2016, Schmidt- Traub et al. 2017). In Randers et al. (2018, 2019), we also made regional fore- casts of SDG achievements. Universality also enables studying interrelations between countries and regions, e.g. in the context of spillovers (in Engström, Collste, Cornell et al. 2021, we discuss spill-overs from cities SDG actions that have impacts beyond national borders). Because social and environmental conditions vary, much of the 2030 Agenda implementation must be contextu- alised and interpreted in relation to local conditions and understood in the con- text of locally prevalent narratives (van der Leeuw 2020b). Furthermore, Leach et al. (2010) argue that there are different contextual views on sustain- ability. To interpret the 2030 Agenda implementation in local contexts, it is therefore important to recognise these “multiple sustainabilities” (Leach et al.
2010 p. 42). Otherwise, the Agenda risks being seen as imposed from the out- side and irrelevant to local decision-makers as well as citizens.
The 2030 Agenda is also presented as transformative: “In these Goals and targets, we are setting out a supremely ambitious and transformational vision.”
(United Nations 2015). The term ‘transformation’ has been defined as “a fun- damental change in the structures, cultures, and practices of a societal system, profoundly altering the way it functions” (de Haan and Rotmans 2011). As referred to above, there has been a significant shift across the scientific com- munity recognising that human activities are driving Earth towards a hazard- ous future that will make current ways of living impossible, and therefore transformations are needed (see, e.g., IPCC 2014, IPBES 2019). For a further discussion on the needs for transformation and what they imply in the 2030 Agenda context, see Linnér and Wibeck (2019).
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